Stocks & Commodities V. 32:4 (44-48): A Better Trend by Perry Kaufman

Stocks & Commodities V. 32:4 (44-48): A Better Trend by Perry Kaufman
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A Better Trend by Perry Kaufman

Zzzzz…No, don’t fall asleep! This is important.

How can a trend be better? Here’s a unique approach to viewing trends so you can gain the most from them.

Consider these points:

• Macrotrend systems have had the best track record of any method for more than 30 years.

• They are based on a sound premise — following the reaction to economic policy.

• They don’t trade often (which bothers the brokerage houses).

• They work across nearly every market.

• They work across a large range of time frames (calculation periods).

• They capture the fat tail of price moves; that is, the really big moves.

• Therefore, they are robust. Very few trading strategies are robust.

• And, yes, they can be boring.

What I mean by robustness is:

• The same rules and parameters are applied to all markets.

• “Loose pants fit everyone” but don’t always look good. Fine-tuning to each market is a guarantee of failure.

There are also these advantages:

• Knowing the trend allows you to filter trading signals from other strategies.

• Knowing the trend allows you to weight trades with better expectations.

• Knowing the trend helps with option strategies.

• The concept is transparent; that is, you know what it’s doing.

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