Stocks According To Trend Tendency
by Stuart Meibuhr
Many times, a question asked of STOCKS & COMMODITIES readers will more than likely find an answer —
and more than an answer, further questions. Such was the article that E. Michael Poulos presented early
in 1991, when he showed how assumed trend tendencies ain't necessarily so. Here, Stuart Meibuhr
answers one of those corollary questions. If certain futures contracts show decided trend tendencies, can
the same be said about certain stocks or indices?
The question that E. Michael Poulos asked in the January 1992 STOCKS & COMMODITIES was "Which
futures trend the most?" In turn, that question triggered a corollary question, "Which stocks or stock
indices trend the most?" Poulos's methodology involved measuring the difference between the highest
high and the lowest low for seven channel lengths (days) from 1 to 49. The range was averaged to arrive
at an average channel height for one-, two-, four-,nine-, 16-,25-, 36- and 49-day channels. Each average
was divided by the average for the one-day channel to arrive at a ratio.
Applying the same methodology to several market indices and seven stocks provided some enlightening
information. A spreadsheet program was used for the calculations on data transferred from a charting
program. Only those securities with histories dating to back before 1985 were used. Data for any holidays
were eliminated before the trend calculations. All calculations were performed on data dating from
January 2, 1985, to January 31, 1992, a period of seven years and one month.