V.8:11 (417-418): Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

V.8:11 (417-418): Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
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Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

In 1983 I noted an indicator developed by analyst Stan Weinstein: the last hour indicator. Changes in prices in the last hour seemed to be useful in forecasting the future. Having an hourly data bank extending back to 1971 plus a fine bump of curiosity, I wrote a program and checked it out. The index did indeed prove useful. My curiosity urged me on, and I checked the other hours of the day. Nothing happened until I tested the hour from 11 a.m. to noon, which, at that time, was the second hour. Here the score jumped up into the significant range. It was even more useful than the last hour.

Why should this be? One possible reason is the public sees the closing prices in the evening paper when they come home from work, and place their orders before the opening the next morning. The professionals move in later and correct the erroneous judgment and trading of the public.

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