Elementary Bond Trends by Thom Hartle
The bond market provides the technician with an assortment of approaches to trading. Complex and esoteric styles occupy one end of the spectrum, while the other extreme is represented by techniques that are simple and straightforward. For my money, the elementary style is the most appealing. Using an approach built upon the basics of trading provides me with the best forecasts of the bond market's direction.
Experience has taught me that the bond market marks time in periods that are bottoms, consolidations and tops. If the bond market is not marking time, then it is trending (either bull or bear) to a point where a price formation will begin to develop. Understanding the basics of trending periods and price formations is the first step toward successful trading. The easiest way to learn is to look at a perfect world.
This look at a perfect world serves to focus your thinking on the underlying forces that create the types of price formations that you are working to interpret. It is very simple to conclude (correctly, one hopes) that a double top formation is complete and the market is headed lower. It is more important to understand that the market buying has been completely satiated and that continued supply is entering the market and the price will be marked down.