Stock Market Business Cycle
by Bill Dunbar
Bottom fishing should be peaceful. If you're a bottom fisherman you like to recline in an open boat in
the cool of the morning or sit with your back against a mossy bank in the gathering dusk and watch the
leaves drift by.
Sure, you want to catch fish, but not the athletic kind that makes it a big exercise. Too much bother.
Chasing high flyers and hot tips is for the jocks who think it's great kicks to pitch around on the brimy,
trolling for marlin.
True, you can't make money in the stock market without experiencing some anxiety but you'll probably
do better and enjoy it more if you can keep the sweating and stomach churning to a minimum. You will
also have more time to drink, carouse and chase women (or dream about it). That doesn't mean you can
ignore your investments, but checking a list of stocks once a week is not the same as biting your
fingernails to the quick, agonizing over decisions to buy, sell, place stop losses, etc. If you buy a stock at
the bottom or near enough to the bottom, then time is on your side. Soon a year will be up and if you
have a capital gain you can take it without cursing the IRS, or at least not as roundly.
I have found, in my own case, that while in a state of anxiety over one or more issues my actions are
strongly motivated by the desire to relieve tension. As a result I am prone to make decisions that are
profitable only to my broker.
The study I am reporting herein all started shortly after the end of the last bull market. At the beginning
of this year it took a while for me to admit to myself that the party was over but I finally did and got out
of most of my portfolio at a profit.