MESA 3 By John Sweeney, Editor
Goleta, CA 93116
When Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) edged onto the trading scene several years ago,
we (favorably) evaluated it over our previous choice for cyclical analysis, Fourier analysis. MESA was
the first program that conveniently applied a better technique to price data in a manner that the average
trader could comprehend.
For $350, it would sift through the last 60 days of your numbers, automatically select the analytical
period and pop up with a spectrum of the cyclic content in the numbers. It would even apply this to
familiar indicators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). It
didn't stop there. It pumped out a prediction of the daily price action for the next two weeks, breaking the
hearts of software developers all over the United States. Naturally, traders salivated while throwing
money at developer John Ehlers—only to discover that the program wasn't always right.
Ehlers had warned that there really was cyclic content in the prices only 20% of the time and had even
thrown in automatic warnings when the amplitude was too low or the definition of the spectrum too
broad. To help out more, he produced another program, EPOCH, which formulated trading signals using
the MESA analytics.