V. 21:4 (20-24): Aftermath Of The Bubble by Phil Abel

V. 21:4 (20-24): Aftermath Of The Bubble by Phil Abel
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Aftermath Of The Bubble by Phil Abel

The Internet mania of 1999– 2000 caused tremendous price movements in many securities. As you develop and test the long-term viability of new trading models, you must be able to discount the effects of such extraordinary events.

The speculative market bubble of 1999–2000 made and broke many fortunes, sometimes within a day. Stocks that were even remotely connected with the Internet witnessed enormous growth and subsequent markdown of share prices. Companies with no real business models or history could float multibilliondollar initial public offerings (IPOs) that doubled or tripled in price on their first day of trading.

During the bubble, virtually any trend-following trading system would have captured substantial profits. These days, you must face the reality of trading in a much more cautious market. However, recent price data has been “tainted” with the effects of the Internet bubble. Now, you cannot simply test your new trading models over three or four years of recent data and then assume you will make a mint in the future because the model did extraordinarily well in 1999.

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