Working Money: When Will This Cruel Market Be Over? by Tim W. Wood, CPA
The secrets of cycles fused with Dow theory is a powerful combination for market forecasting.
In the November 2001 Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I suggested that a move in late 2002 would take the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Standard & Poor’s 500 below the 1998 four-year cycle lows. As of this writing (July 16, 2002), this forecast has come to fruition for the S&P 500 and I am certain the DJIA will follow soon. The 1998 four-year
cycle lows occurred at 7615 on the DJIA and 952 on the S&P 500.
Any four-year cycle that tops in 20 months or less has historically taken out the previous four-year cycle low. Going back to 1896, there have been five times when the four year cycle topped in 20 months or less, and
every one of these five cycles took out the previous four-year cycle low. History has proved again to be the best teacher. Take the bull market of 1974 through the 2000 top: The current four-year cycle tops occurred in
17 months for the S&P 500 and 16 months for the DJIA. Now, with the S&P 500 below the 1998 four-year cycle lows and the DJIA soon to follow, we should see the sixth occurrence of this pattern.