V.17:4 (175-185): Compound Pivots And Market Symmetry by William T. Erman

Compound Pivots And Market Symmetry by William T. Erman

Many traders see only simple symmetry such as a 20-week bottom-to-bottom move followed by another. Unfortunately, if indeed there is another 20-week cycle, it could very well turn out to be 18 weeks or 22 weeks instead of the anticipated 20. Ermanometry, which was introduced to STOCKS & COM-MODITIES readers in February 1999, considers a 20-day window, the four-week spread, to be of little help in today’s complex markets. Compound pivots are measured in days instead of weeks and take into account that markets are both very precise and spherical in character. They can be used to reveal market symmetry in increments of days and to illustrate the fact that successive identical moves in three-dimensional space may appear noncontiguous on the plane. Here, compound pivots and balance points, both tools used for decoding the hidden symmetry of the markets according to Ermanometry, are explained.

Intermarket analysis and neural networks have popularized the advantages of applying analytical output from several markets to the analysis of just one. Ermanometry’s compound pivots concept is another method of combining markets to generate more accurate projections when used for timing analysis. For example, there is a definite symbiotic relationship between the critical paths of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Standard & Poor’s 500. A similar relationship exists between old-crop and new-crop agriculturals, different maturities in the financials, and in most other market categories. We’ll use the DJIA and S&P to first look at the definition of compound pivots, and then we’ll study some examples. Finally, we’ll see how compound pivots can be effective in projecting future pivots.