Stocks & Commodities V. 32:8 (26-29): The Quotient Transform by John F. Ehlers

Stocks & Commodities V. 32:8 (26-29): The Quotient Transform by John F. Ehlers
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Stocks & Commodities V. 32:8 (26-29): The Quotient Transform by John F. Ehlers

Early Trend Detection

Here’s one way to detect a trend early and know how long to stick with it.

Trading the trend is a favorite technique of technical analysts. Trends are usually detected by some variation of following a moving average. The problem with this approach is that the moving averages invariably introduce lag because they require a relatively large amount of historical data to form a reliable indicator. This article introduces the quotient transform, which nonlinearly manipulates indicators to not only produce an early trend detection but also provides the ability to know how long to stick with the trend.


Transforms are handy devices that change indicator waveforms to better interpret the meaning of various in-dicators. They introduce zero lag into the indicators, which is a good thing. For example, a Fisher transform changes any indicator probability distribution to have a nearly normal probability distribution, with the re-sult that visibility peak turning points are highly amplified.

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