Letters To S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Since Koos Van der Merwe’s last assessment
of the S&P and Dow Jones
Industrial Average was correct (“The
Kondratieff Wave And The Presidential
Cycle,” July 2012 S&C), we are wondering
what his view is on where we are now
in the K-wave. Was the 2009 low just
early for the 2012 wave? Are the 2016
and 2019 highs our next targets, or has
something changed in the wave count?
Can we expect something different? We
haven’t changed any of our stock positions
and are profitable in all.
Can Merwe tell us his ideas on the
US economy, the stock market, and his
overall picture for 2014?
Author Koos van der Merwe replies:
See my article in this issue (“Reelections
And The Presidential Cycle” beginning
on page 14), in which I revisit the Kondratieff
wave and review the Presidential
election cycle and update my market
I would say that this year will be a
slow rise, as Congress keeps fighting
President Obama. Things will improve
going into 2014, and the market will be
higher, but it won’t be an easy ride. I still
see banks as being the best performer.
However, by 2016, the market will be
much higher, so have patience, and look
carefully at what you invest in.