Stocks & Commodities V. 27:2 (28-36): Trading The Aussie by Markos Katsanos
Product Description
Trading The Aussie by Markos Katsanos
This system exploits the traditionally
strong correlation between
the Australian dollar and
commodities.
The Australian dollar,
along with the
Canadian dollar,
the New Zealand
dollar, and the South African rand, is regarded
as a “commodity currency,” owing
to the sizable role of commodity
production in the Australian
economy. In 2008–09,
iron ore is forecast to be
Australia’s largest export commodity
(in value terms), followed
by coal, gold, and crude
oil. The country’s largest agricultural
export commodity is
wheat, ranked 10th overall in
commodity export earnings. In
addition, Australia is the world’s
biggest exporter of metallurgical
coal, which is used by
steelmakers.
Although trading the Australian
dollar is not as popular
as trading the euro or the yen, it
is a fascinating currency because
of its strong historical
correlation to gold and the
whole commodity complex.
The direction of commodity
prices, interest rate differentials
with the US, Japan, and other
countries, commodity prices,
and the AUD/JPY carry trade†
are all key variables moving
the Aussie dollar.
For the last 10 years, the
aussie had a strong correlation
coefficient with gold and other
commodities (see Figures 1 and
2). In fact, gold correlated better with the aussie (p = 0.88) than with silver
(p = 0.84).
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