Stocks & Commodities V. 26:12 (71): Futures For You by Carley Garner

Stocks & Commodities V. 26:12 (71): Futures For You by Carley Garner
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Futures For You by Carley Garner


In theory, the grain complex should have seen the harvest lows in the September/ October time frame. Should we be buying agricultural commodities?

We all watched in awe as the grain complex shattered their all-time-high price records and continued to march higher during the 2007–08 rally. Subsequently, many retail traders and perhaps even fund managers watched in horror as the grains made their way relentlessly lower in the summer of 2008.

Several theories attempt to explain the magnitude of the up move from ethanol demand, long-only hedge funds and exchange traded fund (ETFs), and sheer market exuberance in the absence of an attractive equity market. One thing’s for sure — the market overshot its equilibrium price. It was unrealistic to expect that market fundamentals could maintain $8 corn, $13 wheat, and $17 soybeans, but nobody knew just high prices might go before falling to a more rational level, and those who tried to “fight City Hall” likely paid dearly.

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