Stocks & Commodities V. 26:12 (44-48): The Special K, Part1 by Martin J. Pring

Stocks & Commodities V. 26:12 (44-48): The Special K, Part1 by Martin J. Pring
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The Special K, Part1 by Martin J. Pring

This indicator points you in the direction of the primary trend, triggers short-term buy & sell signals, and signals reversals in the primary trend at an early stage. In part 1, we look at how to identify the direction of the primary trend.

Recently, I had the opportunity of cowriting a new technical book with my friend and partner, Assad Hamzeh, specifically aimed at Middle Eastern markets. As so often happens during such projects, I came up with what I believe to be a logical extension of the KST, an indicator that I originally introduced in a series of Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES articles in the 1990s.


Price at any given time is determined by the interaction of numerous time cycles. Figure 1 features three of the most widely recognized ones. The thick green line represents the primary trend, commonly known as bull and bear markets. The bull and bear markets last on average between nine months to two years each and revolve around the four-year business cycle. Markets rarely move in straight lines, so the primary trend is interrupted by intermediate price movements that average between six weeks and nine months. This trend is represented by the blue line. Finally, the red dashed line flags short-term price movements that average between three to six weeks. The KST formulas I devised were an attempt to represent these three trends in the form of smoothed momentum indicators.

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