My Kondratieff Wave by Koos van der Merwe
The Boom & The Bust.
Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff believed that a collapse in the economy would be caused by companies that would not be able to repay their loans and would go bankrupt. Are we at that point?
Nikolai Kondratieff was a Russian economist (1892–1938) who observed that capitalist economies could be analyzed by
wave theory. Kondratieff theorized that economic forces repeated themselves in a pattern of a 54- to 55-year boom-and-bust cycle. He described a boom’s collapse as characterized by “renunciation of debt.” He believed that the collapse would be caused by companies that would not be able to repay their loans and would go bankrupt.
Whether it is company debt, mutual fund popularity,
technology investment, or a mortgage subprime excess,
Kondratieff would have described the bursting of the
present stock market bubble as just another “loan renunciation,” which today’s subprime crisis basically boils
For his effort, and his failure to proclaim the death of
capitalism, he was arrested and eventually executed by the
THE KONDRATIEFF WAVE
Many writers have argued that the Kondratieff wave, or the
K-wave as it is commonly known, is only a study of long
cycles of debt buildup and repudiation; that it is not exclusively a cycle about price inflation and deflation periods.