Stocks & Commodities V. 24:11 (56-61): SB: Calculating the probability of an up/down move in a time series by Ron McEwan
The simple form of the probability equation for the
spreadsheet model is:
P = ((AVG / RMS) +1)/2
P = Probability
AVG = Average of the log changes in the data series (LN (T/T1) function in Excel)
RMS = Root mean square equation (SUMSQ (Period)/
COUNT (Period)) ^0.5...