Stocks & Commodities V. 24:8 (14-19): Forex Focus: Going Beyond 70 And 30 In Forex by Jamie Sattele

Stocks & Commodities V. 24:8 (14-19): Forex Focus: Going Beyond 70 And 30 In Forex by Jamie Sattele

Access to foreign exchange trading has opened up exciting trading options for the retail trader. You can now trade alongside corporations and institutions in a highly liquid market that is global, traded around the clock, and highly leveraged. Before jumping into this market, however, we must understand the factors that affect the forex market. With that in mind, STOCKS & COMMODITIES has introduced Forex Focus to better prepare the retail trader to participate in the currency market.

Here’s a look at the performance of a foreign exchange strategy that was applied to the EUR/USD. The relative strength index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is one of the most widely used indicators in technical analysis. But by the same token, it is also one of the most misunderstood and incorrectly applied indicators in technical analysis. Too often, a trader attempts to pick a top or a bottom and then watches in frustration as the market fails to top out or bottom out and continues to move in the same direction. Most traders realize that RSI is an oscillator and that its value can range anywhere from zero to 100. Extreme readings are said to be over the 70 level and below the 30 mark, with the former considered overbought† and the latter oversold.

CATCHING A MOVE

This is where most mistakes are made. Novice and experienced traders alike jump at the opportunity to sell a cross below 70 or buy a cross above 30, trying to pick a top or a bottom. Some of the trades will surely work out, but it is the one or two losses that occur when the trader finds him- or herself on the wrong side of a strong trending market that will wreak havoc. It is not necessary to sell tops and buy bottoms. Instead, it’s more effective to try to catch portions of large moves with higher-probability entry points.