1739511221,timestamp,5-5
-v12-c06-mktfaci-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:6 (253-254): The Market Facilitation Index by Gary Hoover"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Market Facilitation Index by Gary Hoover
Here's how trader Gary Hoover uses the Market Facilitation Index for day trading.
Applying technical analysis to developing trading signals begins with the investigation of price movement and often incorporates volume studies to improve trading accuracy. The Market Facilitation Index (MFI) is one indicator that synthesizes both price and volume analysis. The MFI is the ratio of the current bar's range (high-low) to the bar's volume.
MFI = range/volume
The MFI is designed to gauge the efficiency of price movement. The efficiency is measured by comparing the current bar's MFI value to the previous bar's MFI value. If the MFI increased, then the market is facilitating trade and is more efficient, implying that the market is trending. If the MFI decreased, then the market is becoming less efficient, which may indicate a trading range is developing that may be a trend reversal. Then, the indicator is used by comparing both the volume and the MFI of the current bar to the previous bar."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-253-254-the-market-facilitation-index-by-gary-hoover-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-253-254-the-market-facilitation-index-by-gary-hoover-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-253-254-the-market-facilitation-index-by-gary-hoover-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c06-genetic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:6 (255-259): A Genetic Algorithm System For Predicting The OEX by Deniz Yuret and Michael de la Maza"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Genetic Algorithm System For Predicting The OEX by Deniz Yuret and Michael de la Maza
Since artificial intelligence made its debut within the pages of Stocks & Commodities, various and sundry methods by which neural networks can be used in designing trading systems have been proposed. Here, Yuret and Maza explain the development of a genetic algorithm system with which to forecast the OEX.
Designing a successful automatic trading system, as many have discovered, is a task of daunting proportions. But powerful new artificial intelligence methods such as neural networks have the potential to simplify this task. To that end, we decided to apply genetic algorithms to predicting the OEX.
Genetic algorithms were invented more than 20 years ago by mathematician and psychologist John Holland, who drew on sources in biology and economics to develop a general optimization algorithm that proved to be adept at finding good solutions to problems ranging from jet propeller design to protein folding. It is only during the last five years, however, that genetic algorithms have achieved widespread popularity within the computer science community and only now are being applied to stock market prediction.
The basic genetic algorithm maintains a set of individuals, which can be thought of as potential solutions to a problem. The best individuals in this set undergo crossover and mutation to produce new individuals that in turn are expected to be better solutions to the problem. After this process is repeated several times, the algorithm stops."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-255-259-a-genetic-algorithm-system-for-predicting-the-oex-by-deniz-yuret-and-michael-de-la-maza-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-255-259-a-genetic-algorithm-system-for-predicting-the-oex-by-deniz-yuret-and-michael-de-la-maza-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-255-259-a-genetic-algorithm-system-for-predicting-the-oex-by-deniz-yuret-and-michael-de-la-maza-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c06-commitm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:6 (260-263): The Commitment To Trading by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Commitment To Trading by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
How far would you go to succeed in your trading? Commitment and achievement go hand in hand but they must be balanced.
Top traders know, either instinctively or as a result of experience, that all achievement requires commitment. They also know that the higher the level of achievement, the greater the commitment that is required to reach it. These traders are, usually, not only willing but eager to apply themselves to the challenge. However, what they usually fail to factor into their road map to success is the level of tradeoff that will be required as well. It is this other side of the equation that, if not properly addressed, can topple the most successful trading careers.
At the same time, many traders desperately want to be top traders, but they are painfully aware of the other side of the success equation. Daunted by the prospect of what they will have to give up, these traders cannot or will not make the necessary level of commitment. Once again, managing the tradeoffs is at the root of the problem."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-260-263-the-commitment-to-trading-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-260-263-the-commitment-to-trading-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-260-263-the-commitment-to-trading-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c06-itsalli-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:6 (264-273): It's All In The Family: Sherman, Marian And Tom McClellan by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: It's All In The Family: Sherman,Marian And Tom McClellan by Thom Hartle
The McClellan oscillator and the summation index are two popular technical indicators that have been around for more than 25 years, and in fact, the daily values are broadcast daily on CNBC. These tools, which can be found in most software packages, are used for identifying turning points in the stock market, but it's not often that you'll find an in-depth explanation included. So we decided to go to the source and ask the McClellans themselves Sherman and Marian, who first devised the indicators, and son Tom. Stocks & Commodities interviewed Sherman, Marian and Tom McClellan about these technical tools that bear their name. All three of the McClellans participated in the discussion.
Q: Sherman, I understand that the three of you wear a number of different hats.
SM: Our primary business is running a company called Admiral Plastics Corporation, which makes injection-molded plastic parts. We spend a normal amount of time running that business. Our second business is Sherman McClellan & Associates, which provides investment timing advice to institutional clients. In the evenings and on the weekends, we turn our focus to the markets, analyzing stocks and commodities, market indices and interest rates. Last year, our son Tom, who was a captain and helicopter\npilot in the Army, left the service after 11 years and joined my wife and me in managing our two businesses.
Q: The technical indicators that you're known for, the McClellan oscillator and the summation index, are based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks. Why did you focus on that set of market statistics?
TM: Advances and declines were chosen as a basis for analysis because of the good correlation to the market, to something that you could actually buy. The cumulative A-D line is a good data source that divides out exactly who's voting for moving up and who's voting for moving down.
Q: Today, the advances and declines statistics include a large number of interest rate-sensitive stocks compared with just the common stocks. Have you looked at that issue?
SM: We keep separate indicators of common stock and all stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and we use Barron's data for that. The common stocks have underperformed the interest rate-sensitive stocks on the NYSE since the Fed started lowering interest rates in 1991. We expect now that the tightening has begun, the two groups will come back together. If there are no forces acting to change interest rates significantly, then those two groups generally track close together and overlay each other. That hasn't been the case since 1991."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-264-273-it-s-all-in-the-family-sherman-marian-and-tom-mcclellan-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-264-273-it-s-all-in-the-family-sherman-marian-and-tom-mcclellan-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-264-273-it-s-all-in-the-family-sherman-marian-and-tom-mcclellan-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c06-sidebm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:6 (264-273): SIDEBAR: THE McCLELLANS' INDICATORS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: THE McCLELLANS' INDICATORS
The McClellan oscillator can be used for measuring changes in momentum of price, volume, advances and declines. The most common use is for measuring the momentum of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listing of the daily number of stocks that advanced and the number of stocks that declined.
The calculation of the McClellan oscillator is a three-step process. First, determine the difference between the number of stocks advancing and the number of stocks declining for each day. This raw number is then smoothed with two exponential moving averages (EMA) to create two different time series. The difference between these two time series is the McClellan oscillator."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-264-273-sidebar-the-mcclellans-indicators-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-264-273-sidebar-the-mcclellans-indicators-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6-264-273-sidebar-the-mcclellans-indicators-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c06-sidebks-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:6Calculating the KST"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Calculating the KST
The suggested parameters for short, intermediate and long term can be found in sidebar Figure 1. There are three steps to calculating the KST indicator. First, calculate the four different rates of change. Recalling\nthe formula for rate of change (ROC) is today’s closing\nprice divided by the closing price n days ago. This result is then multiplied by 100. Then subtract 100 to\nobtain a rate of change index that uses zero as the center point. Second, smooth each ROC with either a\nsimple or exponential moving av-erage (EMA). Third, multiply each smoothed ROC by its prospective weight and sum the weighted smoothed ROCs."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6calculating-the-kst-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6calculating-the-kst-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-6calculating-the-kst-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c07-option-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:7 (277-281): The Option Premium Ratio by Christopher Cadbury"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Option Premium Ratio by Christopher Cadbury
Christopher Cadbury, member of the American Stock Exchange and book author, explains a sentiment indicator generated from the equity options market that identifies trading opportunities in the stock market.
Monitoring market sentiment data is a popular technique today because investors can use the data for market forecasting. One popular sentiment measure is derived from investment sentiment surveys, while another sentiment indicator is the ratio of put trading volume to call trading volume. A lesser-known measure of sentiment is the option premium ratio, which is the total equity put premiums divided by the total equity call premiums. This data is calculated and presented in each issue of the Investor's Business Daily on the General Market Indicators page, under the fifth psychological market indicator. I will present methods of using the option premium ratio, but before I do so let us review other sentiment indicators.
Investment surveys, which are conducted among investment advisors and the investing public, are used as a contrarian indicator. If survey respondents are very bullish, then money is considered to be already commited to the stock market, and so the available buying power is regarded as already depleted. When that occurs, the market is considered vulnerable to a decline because bullish leading advisors can only become less enthusiastic about the market. It is likely that those who follow these advisors will start selling when the advisors temper their outlook for the stock market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-277-281-the-option-premium-ratio-by-christopher-cadbury-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-277-281-the-option-premium-ratio-by-christopher-cadbury-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-277-281-the-option-premium-ratio-by-christopher-cadbury-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c07-firstho-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:7 (282-285): First-Hour Breakout System by Malcolm McNutt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""First-Hour Breakout System by Malcolm McNutt
Here's a mechanical trading system for the Standard & Poor's 500 futures market.
New traders are often advised to find a method or technique with which to trade and then refine the method down to a set of rules and implement the method in the market of choice. Taking this to heart, I put together a mechanical trading system based on material presented by George Angell in Advanced Breakthroughs in Day Trading. This method was designed to trade the Standard & Poor's 500 futures\nmarket. In developing this system, hundreds of methods and thousands of computer iterations (if not more) were performed and 99% of the results were found to be inappropriate for trading. Ultimately, the trading system that I ended up with has proved to be reliable over a 1.5-year time frame, or 400 trades.
While this system may not prove to be reliable in the future, the rules and guidelines that I set out here should help you in your own research. Development of this system started by looking for ways to determine market direction. The most widely known systems use trend-following techniques such as moving averages.
Moving average systems catch large market moves, but profits are lost when the market contains no overall direction. The method of trading the S&P 500 futures market presented here is considered to be a trend-following system but is designed to eliminate a large number of losing trades during periods of nontrending market activity. Before I explain how to deal with a nontrending market, let me explain some basic rules."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-282-285-first-hour-breakout-system-by-malcolm-mcnutt-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-282-285-first-hour-breakout-system-by-malcolm-mcnutt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-282-285-first-hour-breakout-system-by-malcolm-mcnutt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c07-group-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:7 (286-293): Group Relative Strength Analysis by Jaime V. Behar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Group Relative Strength Analysis by Jaime V. Behar
This equity trader and computer consultant presents an intriguing use of statistical analysis to measure the performance of stock groups for the purposes of asset allocation.
To even the most casual of market observers, it soon becomes clear that stocks tend to move in groups. Whether this is due to the business cycle, industry fundamentals or investor perception, as money flows in and out of groups, so do the fortunes of the stocks within the groups.
Many trading disciplines use group strength as a key ingredient in their methodology. The reason is simple: Stock price movements are in general attributed to the market, the group and finally the stock itself. Clearly, market participants who can identify the trends in group movement will be better equipped to deal with the markets.
In the same way a stock's relative strength expresses the performance of one stock to another, group relative strength (GRS) measures the performance of one group of stocks compared to another. Whether the market is going up or down, some groups will perform better than others. Group relative strength attempts to assign a value to the extent that one group is outperforming or underperforming another."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-286-293-group-relative-strength-analysis-by-jaime-v-behar-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-286-293-group-relative-strength-analysis-by-jaime-v-behar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-286-293-group-relative-strength-analysis-by-jaime-v-behar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c07-stack-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:7 (294-302): James B. Stack, Big Sky Investor by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: James B. Stack, Big Sky Investor by Thom Hartle
Thomas Wolfe was wrong: You can go home again. Frank Russell did it when he returned to Tacoma, WA, after he established his well-regarded investment firm in New York, and James Stack did it when he returned to Montana to begin his well-regarded investing newsletters. James B. Stack, president of InvesTech Research, publishes InvesTech Market Analyst and InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisory newsletters. Here, Stack describes how he combines economic, monetary and technical analysis and also shares his evaluation of the current market.
Q: You're located in Whitefish, MT. That's a pretty unique place for a market analyst to be.
A: That's true. You might not think of Whitefish as being the financial nerve center of the Pacific Northwest! I'm a native Montanan with an undergraduate degree in engineering and graduate study in business. I left Montana to join IBM research in Boulder, CO, after I finished my academic education.
Q: When was that?
A: That was in 1974. I left the position of project manager with IBM research in 1979 to start a financial research firm, with the intention of managing my own investment portfolio, which in turn led to providing financial services for the general investing public. I moved back to the Flathead Valley here in Montana, which is noted as being primarily a summer resort and premier ski resort.
Q: Was that when you started InvesTech Research?
A: Yes, I started InvesTech Research at that point. I started with only several employees. We're up to a\nresearch staff of nine today.
Q: When did you start your newsletter, The InvesTech Market Analyst?
A: We started publishing The InvesTech Market Analyst in 1983. We added The InvesTech Mutual Fund\nAdvisory in 1986."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-294-302-james-b-stack-big-sky-investor-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-294-302-james-b-stack-big-sky-investor-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-294-302-james-b-stack-big-sky-investor-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c07-onbalan-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:7 (303-305): On-Balance Volume Indicator by Bruce R. Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Group Relative Strength Analysis by Jaime V. Behar
Of all the factors in trading that technicians learn to analyze, surely price and volume are the first two. Here, the basics behind this classic technical tool are explained.
To even the most casual of market observers, it soon becomes clear that stocks tend to move in groups. Whether this is due to the business cycle, industry fundamentals or investor perception, as money flows in and out of groups, so do the fortunes of the stocks within the groups.
Many trading disciplines use group strength as a key ingredient in their methodology. The reason is simple: Stock price movements are in general attributed to the market, the group and finally the stock itself. Clearly, market participants who can identify the trends in group movement will be better equipped to deal with the markets.
In the same way a stock's relative strength expresses the performance of one stock to another, group relative strength (GRS) measures the performance of one group of stocks compared to another. Whether the market is going up or down, some groups will perform better than others. Group relative strength attempts to assign a value to the extent that one group is outperforming or underperforming another.
Group relative strength measures can be computed for group indices such as the Standard & Poor's 500 or Dow Jones industry groups. The Investor's Business Daily (IBD) computes and publishes its own group indices and their relative strengths. I prefer the IBD group relative strength for two reasons: First, the breakdown of the groups is narrower and therefore more concentrated; and second, the group indices and their relative strengths are published daily in IBD and therefore are readily available."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-303-305-on-balance-volume-indicator-by-bruce-r-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-303-305-on-balance-volume-indicator-by-bruce-r-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-303-305-on-balance-volume-indicator-by-bruce-r-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c07-sidebc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:7 (306-309): SIDEBAR: Chaikin's Money Flow Indicator"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Chaikin's Money Flow Indicator
This sidebar providesChaikin's basic money flow formula and sample code for MetaStock and TradeStation languages. The first step to calculating the 21-day money flow indicator is to calculate the raw one-day accumulation/distribution indicator."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-306-309-sidebar-chaikin-s-money-flow-indicator-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-306-309-sidebar-chaikin-s-money-flow-indicator-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-306-309-sidebar-chaikin-s-money-flow-indicator-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c07-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:7 (306-309): Trading A Stock Using Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading A Stock Using Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle
The search goes on for key indicators to help traders find profitable opportunities in the market. Here, Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle provides an example of a recent trade in a stock based on the foundations of technical analysis, price and volume.
Technical analysis has two purposes. The first is to develop an idea about where a market is heading,\nanswering the question of what is happening. For example, if Treasury bond and Treasury bill yields are\nrising, indicated by a series of higher highs and higher lows, then you should conclude that the interest\nrate environment is one in which rates are rising. Once a trend is established, you should respect the trend\nuntil there is sufficient evidence that a new trend is under way. In this case, technical analysis is being\nused as a form of descriptive technique.
The second purpose of technical analysis is to answer the question of when is something happening,\nsomething that most people want to know. In this case, technical analysis is being used as a timing\ntechnique."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-306-309-trading-a-stock-using-technical-analysis-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-306-309-trading-a-stock-using-technical-analysis-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-7-306-309-trading-a-stock-using-technical-analysis-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-solving-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (313-317): Solving The Portfolio Puzzle by Tushar S. Chande"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Solving The Portfolio Puzzle by Tushar S. Chande
Stocks & Commodities Contributing Editor Tushar Chande presents guidelines for designing a stock portfolio.
Here's my question to all those superb stock traders out there: How many stocks should you have in your portfolio? One? Ten? A hundred? A thousand? Further, what are the tradeoffs? The tradeoffs you make greatly influence overall portfolio performance. Stock timing may be summarized as: What should you own and when should you own it? A corollary to the stock trading is the portfolio puzzle: What should you own and how much?
The answer differs. Professional mutual fund managers follow the hallowed principle of diversification, and academics concluded long ago that the variability of portfolio returns is reduced by adding more securities to the portfolio. However, they don't say much about what happens to the level of the returns as\nyou diversify. In addition, academicians want the different securities in the portfolio to be uncorrelated.\nThis is by no means a simple task. One effect of diversification is to reduce the individual security risk and to be left with market risk.
Market timing or stock picking in any form assumes the opposite: Take on individual security risk. Even though market risk can be substantial these days, essentially, diversification is the antidote to market timing."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-313-317-solving-the-portfolio-puzzle-by-tushar-s-chande-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-313-317-solving-the-portfolio-puzzle-by-tushar-s-chande-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-313-317-solving-the-portfolio-puzzle-by-tushar-s-chande-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-pivot-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (318-320): The Pivot Point For Trading by William I. Greenspan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Pivot Point For Trading by William I. Greenspan
Want to know what the pros use in trading? Well, you're in luck. William Greenspan, the founder of the Commodity Boot Camp and a Chicago Mercantile Exchange floor trader, explains how he uses the pivot technique in trading.
For the first nine years as a professional floor trader, I was oblivious to any technical trading techniques. I traded Treasury bonds, currencies, cattle, soybeans and Standard & Poor's 500 contracts with only fundamental trading techniques. As the markets have become more efficient and in turn I have become — I hope — a little wiser, I have acquainted myself with some technical tools to help me compete in today's market.
One of the most valuable technical trading tools that I use every day is the pivot technique. I was introduced to pivot technique trading about six years ago, although it has been around for decades. Many professional traders use the pivot technique and others keep the pivot calculations handy to know what the pivot traders are doing and not get in the way. For an active day trader, the pivot technique can offer numerous profit opportunities. This technique works efficiently in all futures markets, although it responds better in markets with a wide daily trading range, such as T-bonds, the S&P 500 and currencies. It is harder to use in the corn, wheat or soybeans markets, which currently have narrow trading ranges."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-318-320-the-pivot-point-for-trading-by-william-i-greenspan-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-318-320-the-pivot-point-for-trading-by-william-i-greenspan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-318-320-the-pivot-point-for-trading-by-william-i-greenspan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-ontrend-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (321-324): On Trendlines, Money Flow Index And The Elliott Wave by Brian D. Green"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On Trendlines, Money Flow Index And The Elliott Wave by Brian D. Green
Here's an example of wave and indicator analysis using the money flow index, trendlines and Elliott wave.
One of the most valuable lessons I have learned over the years is to approach problems systematically. Engineers compile theories, principles and equations into an organized toolbox of knowledge that can be used to analyze problems, while pilots use checklists to methodically follow procedures without omitting any critical tasks. A good technician and successful trader must use both techniques, learn from experience and continually study new techniques. Most important, however, he must develop a system based on his accumulated knowledge. Ideally, this system should be in a form that integrates all the tools at his or her disposal and facilitates the coordinated use of these tools.
One of the most important and easiest concepts to master in applying technical analysis is the use of trendlines. A trendline is simply a straight line joining a series of stock price tops or bottoms and represents areas of support and resistance. The significance of a trendline is a function of the data points used to define the line as well as how long the trend is in place. The longer a trendline is in effect and the more data points that are used to establish the line, the greater its significance is. Significant penetration of the trendline usually indicates a reversal or a slowing of the trend. Some technicians look for a violation of 3% to 5% of the price level. In addition, when a relatively steep trendline is broken, prices frequently attempt one final rally to previous highs. The old uptrend line is touched from below and then represents overhead resistance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-321-324-on-trendlines-money-flow-index-and-the-elliott-wave-by-brian-d-green-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-321-324-on-trendlines-money-flow-index-and-the-elliott-wave-by-brian-d-green-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-321-324-on-trendlines-money-flow-index-and-the-elliott-wave-by-brian-d-green-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-sidebmfi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (321-324): SIDEBAR: The Money Flow Index"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How to calculate the money flow index, a volume-weighted form of the RSI.
The money flow index (MFI) is a volume-weighted form of the relative strength index (RSI). Instead of using up closes versus down closes, the MFI compares today's average price to yesterday's average price and then weighs the average price by volume to calculate money flow (MF). The ratio of the summed positive and negative money flows are then normalized to be on a scale of zero to 100.
The following are steps with which to build a 14-period MFI, using as an example the price data for Boeing (BA)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-321-324-sidebar-the-money-flow-index-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-321-324-sidebar-the-money-flow-index-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-321-324-sidebar-the-money-flow-index-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-sidebm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (325-329): SIDEBAR: METASTOCK FORMULAS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: MetaStock Formulas
This sidebar provides the formulas for investigating the overlap of daily trading ranges as described in the article \""Studying Price Behavior\"" by Mike Daley."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-325-329-sidebar-metastock-formulas-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-325-329-sidebar-metastock-formulas-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-325-329-sidebar-metastock-formulas-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-studyin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (325-329): Studying Price Behavior by Michael Daley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price behavior? Can you really read it? This article points out ways to look at price behavior to give you insight into possible consistencies, such as how much today's range typically overlaps yesterday's range. Not only that, how often does today's range not include yesterday's closing price? Being armed with such knowledge could help you to make trading decisions by knowing the characteristics of your favorite markets.
It is a well-known fact that markets spend more time in sideways consolidations than they do trending strongly in a given direction. Regardless of what phase they are in, however, the day's trading ranges, as represented by price bars on a chart, normally overlap one another to a greater or lesser degree. This partial– or sometimes complete – overlapping of one day's trading range by the next interested me because it is one aspect of price action that repeats, to some extent, more than 90% of the time in some markets. Anything that happens with such regularity in a futures market, I decided, might be worth investigating.
To investigate quickly and painlessly, I used a formula that can be programmed on EQUIS' MetaStock (for all of the formulas used in this article, please see sidebar, \""MetaStock formulas\"") or a spreadsheet. In addition, I have included several extra formulas that can be used to measure other aspects of price behavior. It is not my intent here to offer a specific trading methodology. The various formulas are presented, along with a few opinions, for readers to use or expand upon as they see fit."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-325-329-studying-price-behavior-by-michael-daley-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-325-329-studying-price-behavior-by-michael-daley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-325-329-studying-price-behavior-by-michael-daley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-maximiz-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (330-336): Maximizing Bond Fund Profits by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Maximizing Bond Fund Profits by Jay Kaeppel
A new indicator based on Barron's Gold Mining Index is introduced for timing bond mutual funds.
The proliferation in bond mutual funds in recent years has created both good news and bad news for investors. The good news: Income investors can now select from funds investing in specific types of bonds with specific maturities. This flexibility allows an investor to tailor a portfolio to meet his or her own specific requirements. The bad news: More flexibility introduces more choices, and with it the increased possibility of making poor decisions at inappropriate times.
Few investors understand the differences between the bond funds available. In addition, many are unaware of the risk/reward tradeoffs involved when choosing between long-term bond funds and short-term bond funds. Here, then, are the basics of bond fund investing as well as information on differences between individual bonds and bond fund investing; a timing model for determining optimal switch timing between bond funds; criteria for selecting individual bond funds; and a guide to building a model bond fund portfolio."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-330-336-maximizing-bond-fund-profits-by-jay-kaeppel-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-330-336-maximizing-bond-fund-profits-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-330-336-maximizing-bond-fund-profits-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-weiss-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (337-342): Finding Value Statistically: Geraldine Weiss of Investment Quality Trends by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Geraldine Weiss of Investment Quality Trends by Thom Hartle
Have you ever wondered about how to find real value in the markets? Well, this may be the solution to your problem. Geraldine Weiss started the Investment Quality Trends newsletter in 1966. Recently, IQ Trends was included in the seven-member honor roll for performance in up and down markets by the Forbes/Hulbert survey of investment letters. Stocks & Commodities interviewed Weiss about how she started out, the methods she uses for selecting stocks and her thoughts about the market.
Q: Geraldine, how did you get started in the financial arena and with your newsletter, Investment Quality Trends?
A: Well, my work in the stock market was influenced by three people: Benjamin Graham, the well-known author of the book The Intelligent Investor, who alerted me to the benefit of looking for value in the stock market. The second was Charles Henry Dow, who also wrote many times about value and about dividends. But I think the biggest influence on shaping my approach to the market was my father, who not only looked for value but also looked for increasing dividends and good yields.
Q: An upward trend in dividends?
A: My father impressed on me the importance of finding good values and good yields from dividends that were strong and growing. Your use of the word trend is good, because we use technical or statistical analysis of the fundamentals of a stock to decide what stocks to select and at what price to buy or sell.
Q: When did you start publishing your newsletter?
A: I started publishing the newsletter because in 1966 — 28 years ago — it was very difficult for a woman to break into this business, even as a stockbroker. I wanted to analyze stocks and the stock market, so I realized I would have to start my own business to do so, which I did."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-337-342-finding-value-statistically-geraldine-weiss-of-investment-quality-trends-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-337-342-finding-value-statistically-geraldine-weiss-of-investment-quality-trends-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-337-342-finding-value-statistically-geraldine-weiss-of-investment-quality-trends-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-slump-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (343-345): Trading Out Of A Slump by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Out Of A Slump by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Anyone who's traded a while can tell you that finding yourself in a slump from time to time is inevitable. But a slump shouldn't be a crippling hurdle; here, Toghraie explains how to climb out of that pit of trading despair and be on your way in the market again.
What do you do when you find yourself in a bad trading spell? Suppose you've had 10 losses in a row, your livelihood is threatened and the world is caving in on you. Suppose you find yourself at a loss and you have no idea what to do next. Suppose someone told you the way to pull yourself out of the slump was to celebrate?
That's right. Celebrate!
Crazy? Maybe. But do you have a better answer? Should you worry yourself sick and add to the problem instead of solving it? Worry and its natural consequence, dis-ease, are the most common responses to being in a slump. By dis-ease, I mean a breakdown of one or all three of our mental, physical and spiritual beings."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-343-345-trading-out-of-a-slump-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-343-345-trading-out-of-a-slump-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-343-345-trading-out-of-a-slump-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c08-premium-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:8 (346-351): The Option Premium Ratio And The DJIA by Christopher Cadbury"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Option Premium Ratio And The DJIA by Christopher Cadbury
The discussion on the option premium ratio continues, with more examples on forecasting short-term movements in the DJIA.
Previously, I introduced the option premium ratio, which is the ratio of price premiums on puts versus calls. If it seems familiar, there's a good reason: It's the fifth psychological variable on the General Markets Indicators page in Investor's Business Daily. The premium ratio, in my opinion, is the best of all the sentiment indicators. Let me explain one of the ratio's truly outstanding characteristics, the way that it leads to rallies and declines, depending on the level of two of the same daily readings. Two of the same daily readings arise frequently, indicating that the sentiment toward the stock market is constant.
The daily values for the option premium ratio have extended from 0.03 to 1.74 since 1986; values under 0.29 are only associated with bear markets, while values of more than 1.18 are seen exclusively during rampaging bull market legs. Most of the time, values for the premium ratio range from 0.29 to l.18. Over the years, the median values for the premium ratio have been far less than the ratio's mean. The median value has remained in the low to mid-0.60s. Two of the same daily readings at levels well below the median, from 0.40 to 0.54, generally produce rallies. Two of the same readings at levels well above the median, from 0.78 to 0.88, usually result in declines. At two of the same values very near the median, from 0.6l to 0.67, the direction of the underlying market over the period of the two readings normally forewarns of the market's future course. A rising market will continue to rally, while a declining market will continue to fall."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-346-351-the-option-premium-ratio-and-the-djia-by-christopher-cadbury-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-346-351-the-option-premium-ratio-and-the-djia-by-christopher-cadbury-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-8-346-351-the-option-premium-ratio-and-the-djia-by-christopher-cadbury-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-momentu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (355-362): Momentum Trading Using Fourier/WAMI Optimization by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Momentum Trading Using Fourier/Wami Optimization by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
Technical analysis and the use of indicators may lend itself to well-defined rules for trading, but most traders develop their methods into more of an art form. Here, a longtime Stocks & Commodities contributor explains the use of prestored indicator designs and ways to evaluate and refine custom trading rules.
Previously, I described a method for using Fourier analysis and a new momentum indicator for momentum optimization and trade timing, which I called Warren's momentum indicator (WAMI for short). That article discussed cycle analysis methods and the theory for WAMI optimization. This time, well apply this theory to several diverse markets and illustrate the art of trading with Fourier/WAMI optimization.
Fourier analysis and WAMI optimization are used to create momentum indicators that are tuned to each unique market so that momentum-based buy/sell signals are more consistently reliable for profitable trading. This can be achieved only when the method is familiar enough so that the optimized WAMI trading signals \""look\"" right when applied to past market data. The art of WAMI-based trading lies in the application and iteration of the optimization process until the indicated trades on past market data give consistent, profitable results. This process can be illustrated by applying the optimization method to several markets in which it is not obvious how to optimize WAMI or how to customize the trading rules. This method is mastered by practice, not simply in understanding the principles or examples presented."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-355-362-momentum-trading-using-fourier-wami-optimization-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-355-362-momentum-trading-using-fourier-wami-optimization-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-355-362-momentum-trading-using-fourier-wami-optimization-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-sidebf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (355-362): SIDEBAR: Fourier Analysis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Fourier Analysis
Market data is considered to be a complex wave form composed of cycles with different lengths or frequencies. When you look at a price chart, you can see that there are upward trends with countertrend declines or downward trends with countertrend rallies. Each price movement has a varying number of days between consecutive tops and bottoms; in other words, the price action appears to be the sum of cycles with different cycle lengths.
A fast Fourier transform (FFT) of a complex wave form such as market data decomposes the time series into its underlying frequency components. A Fourier power spectrum is simply a plot in histogram form of the cycle power (y-axis) versus frequency (x-axis)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-355-362-sidebar-fourier-analysis-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-355-362-sidebar-fourier-analysis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-355-362-sidebar-fourier-analysis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-newadva-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (363-365): A New Advance-Decline Line by Daniel E. Downing"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A New Advance-Decline Line by Daniel E. Downing
Here's a trading tool that uses a unique version of the daily advance-decline line of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This version helps in our short- and long-term trading of index options and stock index futures. It gives many good short-term trading signals and excellent but infrequent longer-term signals. As with all technical tools we develop, two factors are most important. First, the tool must be easy to construct and maintain, and second, the tool must use as few layers of analysis as possible, not layer upon layer of if-then conditions. We construct technical tools to assist the technician's intuition.
The philosophy behind this tool is that the short-term trader's capital is finite and that traders have to reliquefy their holdings after a period. Traders can buy and try to push the equities higher only so many times before they need to reliquefy, just as only a finite amount of selling waves can take place before the sellers are out of supplies. A tool that points to when short-term traders need to reliquefy their positions will also spot when the markets will soon reverse their trends.
When we speak of reliquefying, we refer to the longs in the market cashing in positions by selling and the sellers in the market either running out of stocks to sell or covering their shorts. In such a situation, the longs have used up their cash in buying stocks; stocks are no longer at a level where the short-term traders wish to purchase, or they want to take some profits on their longs. The sellers wish to take profits on their shorts, have no more stock to sell or feel that stocks have fallen to levels where the sellers no longer wish to sell.
The new advance-decline line that we have devised identifies these points with a simple line chart and basic chart analysis. Breakouts and breakdowns on the chart from congestion patterns (that is, sideways trading) as well as chart formations (double and triple bottoms, trendlines, rising bottoms and so forth) point to changes in the supply and demand picture of short-term equity traders. The line graphically shows when traders are running out of steam or gaining strength. The changes in the special advance-decline line lead to price changes in the Standard & Poor's 500 cash index."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-363-365-a-new-advance-decline-line-by-daniel-e-downing-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-363-365-a-new-advance-decline-line-by-daniel-e-downing-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-363-365-a-new-advance-decline-line-by-daniel-e-downing-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-ratio-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (366-369): Trading The Ratio Of The RSI by Russell Rhoads"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading The Ratio Of The Rsi by Russell Rhoads
Here's a method for trading the spread between the Swiss franc and the Deutschemark. The technique involves using the ratio of the relative strength index (RSI) of each currency to identify trading points.
The correlation between the Deutschemark and the Swiss franc, considering the strong fundamental economic ties between the two countries due to their close geographic proximity, always seemed to be obvious to me. So when I discovered that a floor trader was using technical signals from the Deutschemark to trade the franc, it occurred to me that there had to be some way to trade the franc and the mark together profitably. Further, I reasoned, since the currencies trade in tandem, shorting one and going long the other at the same time would be a low-risk venture.
Figure 1 shows the two currencies together for the last six months of 1993. The two are definitely moving in line with each other, but further investigation was necessary to determine if it were possible to make a profit from the correlation.
Although additional transaction costs are involved in trading two separate currencies instead of just one, trading the opposite sides of the franc and the mark reduces some of the risk generally associated with currency markets. Taking the opposite sides of two very similar vehicles is not unlike trading different expiration months of the same futures product. The prediction that must be fulfilled is not what direction the currencies are going to move but rather if these two currencies are going to resume moving in the parallel fashion they have in the past. Currency trading has been construed as being extremely speculative, but this method of taking advantage of discrepancies between the franc and mark is a low-risk way for individual speculators to be involved in this potentially lucrative trading arena."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-366-369-trading-the-ratio-of-the-rsi-by-russell-rhoads-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-366-369-trading-the-ratio-of-the-rsi-by-russell-rhoads-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-366-369-trading-the-ratio-of-the-rsi-by-russell-rhoads-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-sbbandp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (370-375): SIDEBAR: Calculating the Bandpass Indicator"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Calculating the Bandpass Indicator
The bandpass indicator is an oscillator-type indicator using two filters. This sidebar give the formulas for using this indicator as described in John Ehler's article, in Excel.
In calculating the bandpass indicator, the first step is the calculation of the two Butterworth filters using\ntwo different cutoff periods (P). Sidebar Figure 1 has the cutoff period 10 for filter 1 placed in cell I1, and\nfor filter 2, the cutoff period is 35 and is placed in cell L1. You can use any cutoff period your analysis\nwarrants."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-370-375-sidebar-calculating-the-bandpass-indicator-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-370-375-sidebar-calculating-the-bandpass-indicator-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-370-375-sidebar-calculating-the-bandpass-indicator-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-leeb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (376-380): Stephen Leeb Of Personal Finance And The Big Picture by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Stephen Leeb Of Personal Finance And The Big Picture by Thom Hartle
If a diverse educational background ever lent itself to analyzing the markets, surely that of Personal Finance and The Big Picture newsletters editor Stephen Leeb would do so, with degrees in economics, mathematics and psychology. With that in mind, how does he see the markets? We decided to find out. Leeb spoke to Stocks & Commodities about what his work shows are the important driving forces for the market, his longer-term view of inflation and the indicators he uses.
Q: Stephen, how did you begin your career as a money manager and a market analyst?
A: More by happenstance than planning, I'd say. My undergraduate work was in economics at Wharton. In graduate school, I studied psychology and math, earning a doctorate in psychology and a master's in mathematics. This educational background trained me in the ways to do research, ways to discover how things work. I've always been fascinated by what makes things tick, and there's nothing more fascinating to me than how the stock market works.
Q: I'm surprised at the topics you studied, because psychology and math are really at two different ends of the spectrum.
A: That's probably true, but the stock market, if you think about it, is a combination of psychology and economics. Over the years I think my mathematical background's enabled me to approach the important questions about the market with a certain degree of rigor, but my psychological insight's taught me that you'll never find the definitive answer. So you have to keep refining your thinking. You have to focus on developing good ideas.
Q: In other words, you have to always keep an open mind about the markets.
A: That's right. You may think that you've found the answer, but you'll ultimately always be surprised."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-376-380-stephen-leeb-of-personal-finance-and-the-big-picture-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-376-380-stephen-leeb-of-personal-finance-and-the-big-picture-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-376-380-stephen-leeb-of-personal-finance-and-the-big-picture-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-faber-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (381-384): The Relative Strength Index by Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Relative Strength Index by Bruce Faber
Here's a primer on the relative strength index, which helps identify market reversals and trends.
The relative strength index (RSI), which was created by J. Welles Wilder, was first presented in his New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. It is a popular indicator among traders and can be found in many technical software packages. It is, first of all, a momentum indicator of an individual stock, commodity or market index; it does not measure a comparison of one stock relative to another stock or market index, such as the relative strength ranking used by Investor's Business Daily. The indicator compares an equity only with its own past performance. The RSI is most widely used among traders of commodities and futures."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-381-384-the-relative-strength-index-by-bruce-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-381-384-the-relative-strength-index-by-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-381-384-the-relative-strength-index-by-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-sbrsi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (384): SIDEBAR: Calculating the RSI"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: CALCULATING THE RSI
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that uses the net difference of closing prices for up days and down days. The following are steps by which to build a 14-period RSI, using as an example the price data for Boeing (BA)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-384-sidebar-calculating-the-rsi-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-384-sidebar-calculating-the-rsi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-384-sidebar-calculating-the-rsi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-hesitat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (385-387): Trading Hesitation by Ruth Roosevelt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Hesitation by Ruth Roosevelt
At one time or another, traders may second-guess their own methods and fail to follow their strategies to disastrous results. The founder of the Wall Street Hypnosis Center explains how to return to consistent performance.
Let me tell you about two traders. The first trader would hesitate whenever he would get a signal from his methodology. He would wait for confirmation. He'd go over all the reasons the trade wouldn't work. He'd get confused and start to feel clammy. When confirmation finally did come, he would throw himself headlong into the trade, which by then was already well on its way or, worse still, already over. The second trader would begin to feel queasy when she'd get a trading signal. She'd remember how frightened she'd been in her last few trades, and how she'd actually gotten sick to her stomach. She'd remember all her past losses — and she'd freeze. When the trade would prove itself to be a winner, her whole being would be filled with deep disappointment.
Both these traders would consciously vow that the next trade they made would be different, that they'd take every signal from then on. But somehow, when the next signal would come, either they wouldn't take it, or if they did, it would produce a loss. In both cases, an unconscious pattern was being reinforced, and so they would continue to balk at the trades that followed, thus increasing their discomfort and frustration."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-385-387-trading-hesitation-by-ruth-roosevelt-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-385-387-trading-hesitation-by-ruth-roosevelt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-385-387-trading-hesitation-by-ruth-roosevelt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v12-c09-candles-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-12-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.12:9 (388-392): Candlesticks and the Malaysian Stock Market by Gary S. Wagner, Bradley L. Matheny and F.Tam"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Candlesticks and the Malaysian Stock Market by Gary S. Wagner, Bradley L. Matheny and F.Tam
Here's a look at how candlestick technique is applied to the Malaysian stock market, from the developers of Candlestick Forecaster and the director of PI Capital Research in Malaysia, who teaches Malaysian traders on Western technical analysis.
The dynamic moves of 1993 in Southeast Asian stock markets have gained the attention of traders globally. The Kuala Lumpur stock market in Malaysia, for example, has experienced a super bull market that began in August 1992. The pinnacle of that bull market saw the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) Composite Index (the index for 85 blue-chip equities) rise to a record high of 1,332 on January 5, 1994.
The Malaysian stock market has never attracted so many participants before. In just 11 months, between January and November 1993, the number of shares traded on the KLSE totaled 90.5 billion units, valued at about 197 billion RM (Malaysian ringgits), which converts to more than $78 billion US. This volume exceeded the total shares traded on the KLSE for the last 20 years put together! Not only that, for the 12 months from January to December 1993, the KLSE Composite advanced a phenomenal 642.49 points, or 101.5%. The dynamic move that propeled the market began around the end of August 1992. The first hint of the bull run that was about to begin was a black hammer formation that formed on the weekly candlestick chart.
The hammer and hangman candle formations are determined not only by their shape but also by their location within the current market trend. Moreover, each new additional candle can alter the types and interpretation of candlestick patterns that may form. When determining the candle's location, two candle classifications are used, the first based upon its location within a trend, and the second based upon its position in comparison to the prior candle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-388-392-candlesticks-and-the-malaysian-stock-market-by-gary-s-wagner-bradley-l-matheny-and-f-tam-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-388-392-candlesticks-and-the-malaysian-stock-market-by-gary-s-wagner-bradley-l-matheny-and-f-tam-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-12-9-388-392-candlesticks-and-the-malaysian-stock-market-by-gary-s-wagner-bradley-l-matheny-and-f-tam-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-sidehot-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13 (116): SIDEBAR: Hot list"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Hot list
A list of 20-odd investor sites on the internet."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-116-sidebar-hot-list-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-116-sidebar-hot-list-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-116-sidebar-hot-list-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-modifyp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13 (152-157): Modifying the Parabolic Stop and Reversal by Dennis Meyers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Modifying the Parabolic Stop and Reversal by Dennis Meyers
The parabolic stop and reversal indicator is a popular trading tool, but it's subject to false signals. Here's how it can be modified to improve its performance.
The parabolic stop and reversa (SAR) indicator was introduced by J. Welles Wilder in New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. The SAR, a trend-following indicator that is always long or short the market, is now standard on almost all modern technical analysis\nsoftware. The SAR can be applied to any time horizon bar chart such as monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, or even point & figure. (See sidebar, \""The parabolic trading system.\"")
The basic premise of the parabolic SAR is to create a trailing stop that is at first far enough away from the initial buy so retracements in the early stages of the trend don't stop you out of your position. As the trend matures, the trailing stop moves closer and closer at an accelerating rate to recent local lows of the current price until the stop is penetrated by adverse price movement and a sell signal is given. (The opposite occurs for a sell signal.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-152-157-modifying-the-parabolic-stop-and-reversal-by-dennis-meyers-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-152-157-modifying-the-parabolic-stop-and-reversal-by-dennis-meyers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-152-157-modifying-the-parabolic-stop-and-reversal-by-dennis-meyers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-relativ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (14-15): Relative Dividend Yield And Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Relative Dividend Yield And Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle
To trade the stock market effectively, you need a plan to pick out the stock that could outperform others. Here's an example of a plan for trading that uses a stock's relative yield to the broad market and technical analysis.
Trading stocks for short-term or long-term investing is similar to playing a very competitive game. To be successful, you have to have a game plan, and the first step in the game plan is to have a decision screen for selecting stocks. The universe of stocks from which you have to choose is very large and you want to narrow down your choices in the savviest way possible.\nOne method for stock selection was discussed in a book I reviewed in the August 1992 issue of STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES titled Relative Dividend Yield by Anthony E. Spare and Nancy C. Tengler. In the book, Spare\nand Tengler outlined a method for stock selection. They reasoned that a stock's dividend yield history relative to the yield of the stock market was a reliable method to identify stocks to buy or sell. Stocks with high yields relative to the overall market's yield, such as the yield for the Standard & Poor's 500, are buy candidates. When the yield of the stock fall to historical low levels relative to the S&P 500, the stock should be sold. Simply calculate the ratio of the stock's yield to the S&P 500 yield. The book provided the history of the ratio for a group of stocks. Spare and Tengler's method puts you into stocks when the price of the stock is low and out of the stock when the price of the stock is high. It's the old adage: Buy low, sell high.
Behind this concept for buying a stock was the notion that a company's ability to maintain and increase dividends was taken very seriously by management. Dividend increases were not made unless the company was confident about long-term fundamentals and the industry. This concept seems reasonable as one way to look for stocks that could be profitable opportunities. The relative dividend yield model could be used as an initial screening for stocks. After reading Relative Dividend Yield, I used Barron's \""Speaking of dividends\"" column as one source for identifying companies that may fit the criteria outlined in the book.\nBut this was not enough; I wanted another step in the process. The second criteria would be, naturally enough, technical analysis. What follows is one example of a trade I made based on these two concepts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-14-15-relative-dividend-yield-and-technical-analysis-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-14-15-relative-dividend-yield-and-technical-analysis-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-14-15-relative-dividend-yield-and-technical-analysis-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-identif-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (16-22): Identifying Trades With The Option Premium Ratio by Christopher Cadbury"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Identifying Trades With The Option Premium Ratio by Christopher Cadbury
What is the option premium ratio? Simply, the option premium ratio is the ratio of price premiums on puts relative to price premiums on calls. It covers all listed equity options.
As explained in previous articles, this ratio has some remarkable characteristics relating to momentum. I have found that significant market rallies follow the positive momentum supplied by several consecutive days of gains or unchanged values in the ratio and by several consecutive daily gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at low levels in the ratio. DJIA declines are established by the negative momentum of several straight days of losses in the ratio and several straight days of losses in the DJIA at high values in the ratio.
The option premium ratio is the fifth psychological variable found on the page of General Market Indicators in Investor's Business Daily. Since 1986, the ratio has ranged from 0.03 to 1.74 each day. Except for bear markets and rampaging bull market legs, the values of the option premium ratio have remained between 0.29 and 1.18. The median values for the ratio have been far less than the mean over the last seven years, staying in the low to mid-0.60s."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-16-22-identifying-trades-with-the-option-premium-ratio-by-christopher-cadbury-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-16-22-identifying-trades-with-the-option-premium-ratio-by-christopher-cadbury-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-16-22-identifying-trades-with-the-option-premium-ratio-by-christopher-cadbury-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-leverag-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (23-30): Leverage And Commodities by J.M. Malley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Leverage And Commodities by J.M. Malley
Malley explains how to determine the appropriate amount of leverage for commodity trading.
A winning trading system is a worthy goal, but there's the question of how much to put on in a trade or, equivalently, how much to lever yourself up in a trade. That aspect of trading, money management, is usually addressed with platitudes or difficult and inexplicable mathematics. Simply, risk, which is the probability of losing, is what you work toward reducing when you improve your trading system. Exposure, which is the amount you can win or lose, is controlled by the use of leverage.
Let us look at a simple technique for calculating the leverage that produces the maximum growth for a trading system. Then let us extend our results to a more sophisticated technique that will give the trader the means of selecting the leverage - referred to here as ideal L - that best suits the individual's style and taste for exposure."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-23-30-leverage-and-commodities-by-j-m-malley-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-23-30-leverage-and-commodities-by-j-m-malley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-23-30-leverage-and-commodities-by-j-m-malley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-sidelev-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (23-30): Sidebar: Leverage And Commodities by J.M. Malley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Leverage And Commodities by J.M. Malley
Calculating leverage and simulated trading spreadsheets using a Microsoft Excel 4.0 spreadsheet for calculating L and simulating trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-23-30-sidebar-leverage-and-commodities-by-j-m-malley-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-23-30-sidebar-leverage-and-commodities-by-j-m-malley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-23-30-sidebar-leverage-and-commodities-by-j-m-malley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-design-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (31-36): Designing A Personal Neural Net Trading System by James Stakelum"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Designing A Personal Neural Net Trading System by James Stakelum
What goes through the mind of someone designing a neural network trading system? Last month, James Stakelum explained some of the steps involved in putting together a neural network. This time, he talks about the choices he made to design a neural network to apply to the financial markets specifically.
Last time, I detailed the general issues I found important regarding the overall design and composition of creating my own neural network. This time, I want to explain the choices I made to design a neural network for the specific application of trading financial markets. I used a historical database of the major futures contract markets with the date, open, high, low and close to train and test my neural networks. I had to overcome one obstacle: I wanted more granularity of prices than provided by the daily four prices in the database. An ideal series for my purposes would have been the actual price ticks for each day, but such databases are prohibitively expensive to purchase and fortunately were not absolutely necessary.
I had to produce a more realistic flow of price data than the daily database provided. To do so, I transformed the four daily prices into a simulated tick database by generating a series of prices for each day that fluidly connects the open and close via the shortest path between the high and low (Figure 1). The tick data was only used in testing the network, when trading simulations are run testing hypothetical buys and sells. Daily data with only date, open, high, low and close, not tick data, was used for training."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-31-36-designing-a-personal-neural-net-trading-system-by-james-stakelum-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-31-36-designing-a-personal-neural-net-trading-system-by-james-stakelum-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-31-36-designing-a-personal-neural-net-trading-system-by-james-stakelum-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-sideris-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (31-36): Sidebar: Risk of Ruin"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Risk of Ruin
This brief sidebar discusses the risk of ruin- an estimate that indicates the probability that a trader will eventually lose all his trading capital- and the probability from zero to 100% that a trader will eventually lose all of his trading capital."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-31-36-sidebar-risk-of-ruin-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-31-36-sidebar-risk-of-ruin-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-31-36-sidebar-risk-of-ruin-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-avoidin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (35-42): Avoiding Risk: Jerry Wagner, Fund Timer by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Avoiding Risk: Jerry Wagner, Fund Timer by Thom Hartle
Jerry Wagner, president of Flexible Plan Investments, Ltd., of Bloomfield Hills, MI, currently has approximately $200 million under management. His firm was the top-ranked market timer for the last seven years in the MoniResearch newsletter's 1993 annual survey of market timer performance. He is a founding member of the Society of Asset Allocators and Fund Timers (SAAFTI), a nonprofit trade association of registered investment advisory firms that manage client assets with market timing. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Wagner on October 27, 1994, via telephone and discussed how market timing can improve investment returns and how he uses the political climate as an indicator.
Q: You've got a unique background for a money manager. Let's start there.
A: I was bit by the stock market bug when I was studying for my master's degree in industrial relations. That was just before I started law school. I really didn't shake it attending law school. In fact, I ran a hedge fund while I was in law school.
Q: When was that?
A: During 1971 to 1973. My early interest was in arbitrae situations, which involved computer analysis of the stock market. I went on to practice law, but I kept working on these hedge and arbitrage strategies on the side. Then the options market opened, and I became fascinated with that market. I found the arbitrage approaches worked with the options."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-35-42-avoiding-risk-jerry-wagner-fund-timer-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-35-42-avoiding-risk-jerry-wagner-fund-timer-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-35-42-avoiding-risk-jerry-wagner-fund-timer-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-quantif-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (43-45): Quantifying Your Markets by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quantifying Your Markets by Thom Hartle
After you've gained some experience with trading, you'll begin to notice that the market you trade has some typical characteristics. Have you ever considered quantifying them? Here are some ideas on the subject.
Buy low. Sell high. Limit your losses. These are all tried-and-true trading axioms, all often stated but rarely quantified. So what does \""low\"" or \""high\"" mean ? What about that old chestnut, \""limiting your losses\""? Are there really ways to intelligently limit your losses? Think about this: Experts recommend that you place stop-loss orders in the market at price levels that are not obvious, avoiding chart points such as under the previous day's low. So how do you do that, anyway? How can you answer some of these questions?
Let's look at a simple charting example. Consider Figure 1, which shows the Treasury bond market from June 6 to July 27, 1994. This futures contract fell more than five points until July 11 and then rallied more than three points. After peaking on July 20, the price fell back toward 102. If the market continued to slip and fell to 101-29, it reach a 50% retracement of the July 11th to July 20th rally. This may be a buying opportunity. Buying a market after it has retraced 50% of a previous rally is a simple guideline for trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-43-45-quantifying-your-markets-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-43-45-quantifying-your-markets-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-43-45-quantifying-your-markets-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-definin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (46-51): Defining The Commodity Channel Index by D.W. Davies"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Defining The Commodity Channel Index by D.W. Davies
Presented here are the ins and outs of the commodity channel index, as defined by creator Donald Lambert and modified by the author.
The trials and tribulations of trading, the probability of ruin and the frustration of personal frailties lead most traders to pursue trading's Holy Grail - but the Holy Grail, like beauty, is in the eyes of the beholder. To Donald Lambert, trading's Holy Grail was to devise a technical tool that would identify the beginning and the end of cyclical and/or seasonal price trends and limit the possibility of losses. And so was born the commodity channel index (CCI).
Relatively little has been written about the CCI, even though it is included in most analytical software with an assigned default value of 20. By studying and modifying Lambert's work on the CCI, I have managed to fashion his original, notable accomplishment to produce consistent profits.
THE BIRTH OF THE CCI
In October 1980, Donald Lambert published an article in Commodities entitled \""Commodity channel index.\"" The relevant theories, facts and recommendations of that article can be summarized as:
l. Recognizing cyclical and seasonal commodity price activity.
2. Traders' difficulty in recognizing the beginning and end of such price cycles.
3. The presentation of CCI as akin to a \""standard score\"" in statistics to be used as a timing tool to address that\nproblem.
4. CCI is computed with typical price minus the moving average of typical price divided by the mean deviation of\nthe typical price average times a constant (0.015)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-46-51-defining-the-commodity-channel-index-by-d-w-davies-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-46-51-defining-the-commodity-channel-index-by-d-w-davies-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-46-51-defining-the-commodity-channel-index-by-d-w-davies-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-sidecci-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (46-51): Sidebar: Defining The Commodity Channel Index by D.W. Davies"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Defining The Commodity Channel Index by D.W. Davies
Presented here are the ins and outs of the commodity channel index, as defined by creator Donald Lambert and modified by the author.
The commodity channel index (CCI) can be calculated using any lookback period chosen by the trader. The Excel spreadsheet shown here is an 11-period CCI for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The first step is to calculate the daily typical price. This is the high, low and close added together and divided by three."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-46-51-sidebar-defining-the-commodity-channel-index-by-d-w-davies-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-46-51-sidebar-defining-the-commodity-channel-index-by-d-w-davies-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-46-51-sidebar-defining-the-commodity-channel-index-by-d-w-davies-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-sidetts-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (52-54): Sidebar: The T-Test"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: The T-test by James Stakelum
There were 24 trades produced in the simulation run using the September 1994 Deutschemark futures contract.
This sidebar gives sample calculations of the T-test using these figures."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-52-54-sidebar-the-t-test-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-52-54-sidebar-the-t-test-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-52-54-sidebar-the-t-test-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-sideneg-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (52-54): Sidebar: Trading And The Emotional Boomerang by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Trading And The Emotional Boomerang by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Negative boomerang and Mr. Hyde evaluation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-52-54-sidebar-trading-and-the-emotional-boomerang-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-52-54-sidebar-trading-and-the-emotional-boomerang-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-52-54-sidebar-trading-and-the-emotional-boomerang-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (52-54): Trading And The Emotional Boomerang by Adrienne L. Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""rading And The Emotional Boomerang by Adrienne L. Toghraie
How are your emotions affecting your trading? They don't, you say? But they do. Even though you may not be aware of it, your emotions are always influencing your trading. Since we are forever in one emotional state or another and since our emotions spread out in all directions like ripples on a pond, they affect everything that stands in their path, including our trading. Inwardly, these emotions affect how you make decisions about your trading, and the results of these decisions will, in turn, produce new emotions and send them back to you, just like a boomerang. Outwardly, these emotions affect others around you and their reactions will also boomerang back to you, giving you a double charge of the same feeling."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-52-54-trading-and-the-emotional-boomerang-by-adrienne-l-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-52-54-trading-and-the-emotional-boomerang-by-adrienne-l-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-52-54-trading-and-the-emotional-boomerang-by-adrienne-l-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c01-insync-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:01 (9-13): The Insync Index by Norm North"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Insync Index by Norm North
Here's a method to graphically display the signal status for a group of indicators as well as an algorithm for generating a consensus indicator that shows when these indicators are in sync. The methods described can be used with any group of indicators.
Using the presignal concept as a base, the algorithm for creating the Insync index, which is a consensus indicator, is simple and obvious - once you see it. It works consistently well, almost always outperforming its component indicators. A user should be able to implement and test it, to some extent using many of the more comprehensive technical analysis programs available today. Basically, the Insync index shows that when a majority of indicators is in sync, a turning point is near. By using the index as a filter, large databases can be scanned quickly to identify issues that may be about ready to reverse their trend.
OVERCOMING OVERLOAD
Only a few years ago, analysts could spend a few hours with their personal computers and favorite software programs and come up with several good candidates for trading from a database of 30 or so stocks, keeping up with their studies on an interactive basis. At present, however, considering the abundance of low-cost technical data available and the speed and capacity of current computers, it is not unreasonable for individual investors to want to search through a database of several thousand stocks to find those that offer the best opportunities. What the investors would like to do is check a wide array of indicators of their choice as well as other criteria before making an investment decision.
The problem: Although the information is available when the investors want it, there's just not enough time to go through it all! Looking at the output of three to four indicators for several hundred issues isn't practical. How does an investor condense the information generated by these indicators into a form that conveys only the pertinent portion of each indicator's output? One way is to create a consensus indicator that essentially represents the output of the component indicators, reducing the analysis time required by a factor of the number of indicators involved."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-9-13-the-insync-index-by-norm-north-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-9-13-the-insync-index-by-norm-north-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-01-9-13-the-insync-index-by-norm-north-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-sidemet-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:06 (236): SIDEBAR: MetaStock syntax"",""caption-linebreaks"":""METASTOCK SYNTAX
Here’s the system’s syntax for MetaStock 4.5: ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-236-sidebar-metastock-syntax-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-236-sidebar-metastock-syntax-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-236-sidebar-metastock-syntax-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-rangein-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:06: (238-242): The Range Indicator by Jack L. Weinberg"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:06: (238-242): The Range Indicator by Jack L. Weinberg
Here's a new indicator based on the change in a day's trading range as evidence of the start of a new trend in a market.
Markets tend to trade in relatively tight price ranges most of the time; therefore, low daily ranges indicate trading ranges. Prices move to reach toward new levels for a new trading range when a fundamental change has occurred in the supply/demand balance for that commodity. A dramatic change in the daily range relative to the interday ranges indicates that a change in the fundamentals may be present and may be a significant event. Such a fundamental change is usually, but not always, accompanied by an increase in the daily trading volume for that commodity.
A classic example of such a situation occurred on August 19, 1993, in the September 1993 yen contract. That day, the central bank of Japan tried to depress the value of the currency to prevent it from going above the 100 yen per dollar level. The resulting dramatic increase in the daily range (and the accompanying increase in volume) can be seen in Figure 1.
IDENTIFYING SITUATIONS
Many indicators and rules have been proposed to identify these situations. Another key area of interest has been the attempt to identify the direction of price after a significant change in the daily range to interday range.
One of the first to try was J. Welles Wilder in his New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems . In that work, he proposed the use of a new indicator he called the average true range. This indicator took into account the issue of limit up and/or limit down days and their effect on the range calculations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-238-242-the-range-indicator-by-jack-l-weinberg-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-238-242-the-range-indicator-by-jack-l-weinberg-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-238-242-the-range-indicator-by-jack-l-weinberg-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-candles-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:06: (243-246): Candlesticks For Support And Resistance by John H. Forman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:06: (243-246): Candlesticks For Support And Resistance by John H. Forman
Even as you read this, the candlestick charting technique, with its origins in Japan, is being absorbed into the ways of Western technical analysis. Here's how\ncandlestick charting can be used for a typically Western technical analysis strategy.
Observation is the best friend of the technical analyst. By watching the markets, I noticed something interesting about candlestick charts, which I use extensively. I realized the real bodies used in candlestick charting can be used to determine significant support and resistance points, a strategy I had never seen before. Take a look at how it can be done.
Although they have only recently become popular in the Western Hemisphere, Japanese traders have been using the candlestick charting technique for hundreds of years. Candlestick charts, much like the bar chart equivalent, utilize the open, high, low and close activity to plot a period (usually a day). In candlestick charting, unlike bar charting where the highs and lows tend to be the focus, the opens and closes are the most significant.
A candlestick is composed of two features, as shown in Figure 1. The real body is a rectangle encompassing the area between the open and close and is what gives candlestick graphs their distinctive appearance. The real bodies are blacked in if the open is above the close and white if the close is above the open. A session in which the open and close are the same is commonly referred to as a doji session and is represented by a single horizontal line at that price.
The shadows of a candle - which give the appearance of being wicks - are drawn in the area above and below the real body. The upper shadow is the area between the high and the top of the real body, while the lower shadow is the area between the bottom of the real body and the low. It is possible to have one, two or no shadows. When a shadow is absent, the result is often referred to as a shaved candle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-243-246-candlesticks-for-support-and-resistance-by-john-h-forman-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-243-246-candlesticks-for-support-and-resistance-by-john-h-forman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-243-246-candlesticks-for-support-and-resistance-by-john-h-forman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-sideavg-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:06: (251): SIDEBAR: Averaging Lag and the EMA Constant"",""caption-linebreaks"":""AVERAGING LAG AND THE EMA CONSTANT
The equation to compute an exponential moving average (EMA) is: ...
Picture a function that increases by 1 for each new day. Then, on the generalized i th day the function will have a\nvalue of I . Assume the EMA lag is K . ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-251-sidebar-averaging-lag-and-the-ema-constant-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-251-sidebar-averaging-lag-and-the-ema-constant-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-251-sidebar-averaging-lag-and-the-ema-constant-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-ratio-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:06: (252-254): The Ratio Of Inflation Rates And Currency Trends by John Kean"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:06: (252-254): The Ratio Of Inflation Rates And Currency Trends by John Kean
Exchange rates fluctuate on a second to second basis, but the long-term trends can be understood by using an indicator based on the ratio of inflation rates. The\ncase in point? The recent Mexican peso debacle.
Picture this: A robust developing economy, a democratically maturing political system and a newly adopted treaty eliminating trade tariffs with the world's greatest consumer economy (which also happens to be its northern neighbor). A situation like this could only point to good investment times ahead, wouldn't you think?
The seemingly rosy situation had some well-recognized glitches in the picture, such as a nasty rebellion in a southern state and the recent assassination of a political candidate. But the world, and particularly the US, is no stranger to such vicissitudes, and these glitches appeared to be simple bumps in the road to be endured by willing investors.\nWho could have seen a dollar-denominated crash coming for Mexico?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-252-254-the-ratio-of-inflation-rates-and-currency-trends-by-john-kean-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-252-254-the-ratio-of-inflation-rates-and-currency-trends-by-john-kean-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-252-254-the-ratio-of-inflation-rates-and-currency-trends-by-john-kean-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-sideada-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:06: (267): SIDEBAR: Adaptive Moving Average by Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:06: (267): SIDEBAR: Adaptive Moving Average by Bruce Faber
Perry Kaufman points out in Smarter Trading that if you could achieve only one goal in analyzing the price of\ninvestments, it should be to identify the direction, or trend, of the market involved. Further, he writes that \""everyone wants a short-term, fast trading trend that works without large losses. That combination does not exist.\"" It is possible to have fast trading trends in which one must get in or out of the market quickly, but these have the distinct disadvantage of being whipsawed by market noise when the market is volatile in a sideways trending market. During these periods, the trader is jumping in and out of positions with no profit-making trend in sight. However, it is possible to avoid the noise by using very long moving averages. These are little affected by the day-to-day changes in price, but they also miss much of the profit to be gained, or saved as the case may be, by the lag between the time that the trend actually changes and the moving average gives a buy or sell signal.
In an attempt to overcome the problem of noise and still be able to get closer to the actual change of the trend,\nKaufman developed an indicator that adapts to market movement. This indicator, an adaptive moving average\n(AMA), moves very slowly when markets are moving sideways but moves swiftly when the markets also move swiftly, change directions or break out of a trading range."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-267-sidebar-adaptive-moving-average-by-bruce-faber-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-267-sidebar-adaptive-moving-average-by-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-06-267-sidebar-adaptive-moving-average-by-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-signal-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (275-281): Signaling Change with Projection Bands by Mel Widner, Ph.D"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (275-281): Signaling Change with Projection Bands by Mel Widner, Ph.D
Projection bands, a new method using trading bands, projects market data forward along the data trend with the maxima and minima of the projections defining the band. The method provides another means of signaling potential changes for market direction relative to the trend.
Buy low and sell high\"" is the trader's tenet, and as a result, indicators that determine when prices may be low or high are very popular. Trading bands, which are envelopes drawn about price histories, are one such set of indicators designed to measure relative high and low prices. The envelopes are used to determine when prices are high or low relative to the price history.
Trading bands evolved from simple envelope structures roughly sketched by hand to percentage boundaries about moving averages to statistical methods - for example, Bollinger bands - that are adaptive to changing market conditions. The latter method captures the average movement of the market by the moving average, and the randomness and cyclic behavior by the variation around this average. When the price is several standard deviations from the moving average, then it is at an extreme condition, a situation that often signals a reversal or sometimes a breakout. When combined with confirming information, buy and sell signals can be generated.
Channel methods are an example of other methods with certain band characteristics. Channels are identified by connecting peaks and bottoms with straight lines that can be projected as a boundary around a selected price history. The rationale for this approach is that markets frequently move in a general direction with variations about this general movement between short-term support and resistance levels.
Signals associated with touching channel boundaries or breaking out of the channel pattern are widely used and well documented. A recent STOCKS & COMMODITIES article by Bob McCullough provides a quantitative means to define channel boundaries using least-squares† fit analysis, noting that the channel boundaries often follow the same slope as the fit. Channel methods require that the analyst must make some selections, such as start and end times. In\naddition, long periods are often required to define the channel, and it is sometimes too late to take action once the pattern is clear."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-275-281-signaling-change-with-projection-bands-by-mel-widner-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-275-281-signaling-change-with-projection-bands-by-mel-widner-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-275-281-signaling-change-with-projection-bands-by-mel-widner-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-sidetra-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (280): SIDEBAR: Trading bands by Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (280): SIDEBAR: Trading bands by Bruce Faber
Trading bands, or envelopes, are used as visible boundaries that contain the price movement of a security. A sell signal may be generated when the price hits the upper band and a buy signal may be generated when the lower band is touched.
Originally, trading bands were drawn by hand, using smoothed waves that coincided with the highest highs and lowest highs for the upper band, and the highest lows and lowest lows for the lower band. Using these waves as a pattern, the bands could be projected to indicate where prices might go."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-280-sidebar-trading-bands-by-bruce-faber-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-280-sidebar-trading-bands-by-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-280-sidebar-trading-bands-by-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-sidepro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (281): SIDEBAR: Projection bands and oscillators by Mel Widner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (281): SIDEBAR: Projection bands and oscillators by Mel Widner
Sidebar Figure 4 shows a Microsoft Excel 4.0 spreadsheet that is used for calculations; column A = trading day number that is used in the calculation of slopes and trends. For a lookback period of 14 days, the slope for the lows in cell F16 is
=SLOPE(D3:D16,A3:A16)
or
=TREND(D3:D16,A3:A16,A16)-
TREND(D3:D16,A3:A16,A15)
for Excel 3.0
The slope for the highs in cell G16 is
=SLOPE(C3:C16,A3:A16) ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-281-sidebar-projection-bands-and-oscillators-by-mel-widner-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-281-sidebar-projection-bands-and-oscillators-by-mel-widner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-281-sidebar-projection-bands-and-oscillators-by-mel-widner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-using-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (282-287): Using Filtered Waves for Trend Analysis by Scott Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (282-287): Using Filtered Waves for Trend Analysis by Scott Barrie
Filtering is simply processing price data to remove extraneous, noisy, information. What's left after filtering can be considered to be the more important and perhaps tradable information. Here's a method to filter price data for reliable patterns as well as some suggested trading plans.
Technical analysts use past market behavior as a guidepost for future behavior. By studying the past, an analyst can glean patterns that can be used as the basis for trades. The challenge is determining which past behaviors are appropriate to examine and then building trading schemes on those patterns. Here are the methods I employ to discern patterns, and the trading schemes I use in the Treasury bond futures market.
To compare present price action with the past, we must examine three facets of price behavior: first, magnitude, or the difference between starting and ending values; second, the duration, or how long it takes to move from beginning to end; and finally, the path, or which direction, up or down, from start to finish. The best process I have found for breaking down moves is the filtered wave method discussed by Arthur Merrill in his Filtered Waves, Basic Theory.
Filtering is the process of ignoring some data to discern a more telling picture from the remaining data: Ignore all moves less than a certain percentage, x%, and only look at moves greater than x%. I use a 1% filter to create a makeshift actuarial table of all absolute price movements greater than 1% (Figure 1). By using filters, I solve two of the three problems - magnitude and path. Then I use observed duration of the historical moves as my timing method, looking for moves that are overdue according to past average duration.
LAYOUT
Before I go into the results of my analysis, these are the steps I used to analyze the T-bond market. The data was from Technical Tools daily data for the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) 30-year Treasury bond contract, from January 1, 1979, to December 17, 1993. I exported the data and used a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet to analyze it. I only used the December contract from the beginning of the contract year to contract expiration; for example, for the December 1979 contract, I used the first trading day in January 1979 until the contract expired. In Excel, I floored all percentage waves to the nearest 1%, meaning that all moves from 1% to 1.99% were grouped together as a 1% wave. This process was performed for all moves greater than 1% all the way to 7%, while all moves greater than 8% were lumped together. The same process was applied for negative waves. The results of the data I analyzed appear in Figure 1. The information that follows is illustrated there:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-282-287-using-filtered-waves-for-trend-analysis-by-scott-barrie-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-282-287-using-filtered-waves-for-trend-analysis-by-scott-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-282-287-using-filtered-waves-for-trend-analysis-by-scott-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-sidefil-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (286): SIDEBAR: Filtering in Excel by Scott Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (286): SIDEBAR: Filtering in Excel by Scott Barrie
Here are the Excel 4.0 formulas to perform individual market filters. For our example, we'll use the December 1994 Treasury bond futures market (sidebar Figures 1 and 2) with a 1% filter. The spreadsheet will use the following formulas in their respective cell locations: column A: contract symbol; column B: date (be sure to use trading days only); column C: opening price; column D: intraday high; column E: intraday low; column F: close or settlement.
In column headings, I have used the_ to represent spaces between words so my macros can identify the heading. For example, I use \""end_date\"" for \""end date.\"" Copy down all formulas that are entered into row 3. The formulas follow the colon after the cell designation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-286-sidebar-filtering-in-excel-by-scott-barrie-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-286-sidebar-filtering-in-excel-by-scott-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-286-sidebar-filtering-in-excel-by-scott-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-log-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (288-291): Logarithmic Point & Figure Charting by William G.S. Brown"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (288-291): Logarithmic Point & Figure Charting by William G.S. Brown
Traditional point & figure charting is one of the oldest methods known in technical analysis. The technique is unique because it only records the direction and change in price while ignoring the passage of time. But it has certain disadvantages; for example, it is virtually impossible to adjust a point & figure plot for stock splits or dividends without replotting the whole chart. Making each box represent a fixed percentage change - a logarithmic scale - has several advantages. Here's what they are.
Point & figure charting, one of the oldest methods used in technical analysis, was first used in the late 1800s.\nUnlike most other chart-based methods of analysis, time per se does not appear on point & figure charting. In most cases, the price movements shown on the charts cover a longer elapsed time than a time-based chart of the same size.
Maintaining a point & figure chart requires writing a series of Xs or Os in a column. No other action is required. This is simpler than drawing graphical, time-based charts based on, say, high, low and closing values - especially when the charts are maintained by hand.
The simple construction means that even the less-dedicated investor may be willing to devote the time necessary to maintain the charts. The long historical overview that is the result provides the investment perspective needed for investment decisions.
Finally, common point & figure chart formations have been identified along with their interpretation and use as trading indicators. The effectiveness of these formations as buy and sell signals have been analyzed with some surprisingly consistent results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-288-291-logarithmic-point-figure-charting-by-william-g-s-brown-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-288-291-logarithmic-point-figure-charting-by-william-g-s-brown-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-288-291-logarithmic-point-figure-charting-by-william-g-s-brown-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (292-297): Trading with the Cup-with-Handle by Gregory Kuhn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (292-297): Trading with the Cup-with-Handle by Gregory Kuhn
Here are some more nuances for trading stocks based on the charting pattern called the cup-with-handle pattern introduced by William O'Neil.
How much would you pay for a trading system that accurately identified the buying trend of the smart money early enough to profit? Would you spend no more than the annual subscription to a chartbook service? The biggest problem in searching for chart formations is that if you look hard enough at a stock's one-year graph, you're bound to find any formation you want to conform to your bias. But the smart money has a way of leaving subtle footprints in the way some chart patterns form.
The cup-with-handle pattern, when combined with price and volume action, is often the result of such footprints.\nThe volume surges that typically accompany the rally days in a sound cup-with-handle base - clues that investors are building a position - don't occur because there are more buyers than sellers; they occur because the buyers are much bigger. The mystique behind the cup-with-handle's basic structure, however, is nothing more than understanding a simple technique - the 1-2-3 change of trend as explained by Victor Sperandeo in Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master. Sperandeo points out that fortunes are often made by simply identifying a change of trend. Of all the technical indicators and rules I have studied over the years, this single rule is by far the most important I've learned.
The 1-2-3 change of trend - hidden within the cup-with-handle - gives a trader the opportunity to get on board a new uptrend at its earliest emerging point. Let's look at the 1-2-3 change of trend as part of the development of the cup-with-handle pattern."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-292-297-trading-with-the-cup-with-handle-by-gregory-kuhn-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-292-297-trading-with-the-cup-with-handle-by-gregory-kuhn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-292-297-trading-with-the-cup-with-handle-by-gregory-kuhn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-udprice-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (298-303): UDPrice Change Indicator by Dennis Meyers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (298-303): UDPrice Change Indicator by Dennis Meyers
This indicator expresses buy and sell signals based on user-defined percentage changes in a market. The UD% price change indicator is compared with a simple\nmoving average crossover and two different channel breakout systems using the Standard & Poor's 500 index as an example.
The percentage price change indicator, simple in concept and implementation, was one of the first indicators used to forecast the market. Its basis is simple enough. If the price moves up by a certain percent from the lowest low recorded while you are short, then you should initiate a long position and stay long until the price moves down a certain percent from the highest price recorded while you are long. At that point, you should go short.
Further, this curve-following indicator filters out all moves less than the certain percentage. The percent price change indicator is easier to implement and understand than many modern-day analysis methods, such as the fast Fourier transforms and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) parameter estimation techniques. The percent price change indicator has the advantage that it will perform even if cycles not sinusoidal in nature are present. A sinusoid wave will rise to a peak from a starting point in a certain amount of time and then fall back to that starting point in the same length of time. Sinusoids take the same time to rise as they do to fall. In reality, prices very rarely take the same length of time to go up as they do to go down. This can limit the usefulness of cycle analysis somewhat.
UD% PRICE CHANGE INDICATOR
The percent price change indicator must be brought up to date before it can compete with today's vast arsenal of technical indicators. This modernization can be accomplished by observing (somewhat simplistically) that price advances usually have different characteristics than price declines do. We can implement this observation by creating different percent price change filters for price up moves and down moves - and thus, the UD% price change indicator.
In the UD% price change indicator, if the price moves up by u% from the lowest low recorded while you were short, then you should initiate a long position and stay long until the price moves down d% from the highest price recorded while you were long and then go short. In the UD% price change indicator, u and d can be the same or they can be different. Basically, this indicator filters out all movements, random or not, less than u% while you are long and less than d % while you are short."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-298-303-udprice-change-indicator-by-dennis-meyers-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-298-303-udprice-change-indicator-by-dennis-meyers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-298-303-udprice-change-indicator-by-dennis-meyers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (304-310): Teacher, Trader Still Teaching: Joseph Stowell by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (304-310): Teacher, Trader Still Teaching: Joseph Stowell by Thom Hartle
Many STOCKS & COMMODITIES readers dream of trading for a living; they fantasize about giving up their\nhumdrum day-to-day job and focusing on the opportunities in leveraged markets such as futures. But as everyone knows, dreams and realities are usually far apart. Can it be done? Can you be an overnight success? Meet Joseph Stowell, a former schoolteacher who patiently worked at trading for more than 20 years before realizing his dream of trading for a living. Stowell spoke to S&C Editor Thom Hartle on April 14, 1995, via telephone about how he did it, what it takes to trade successfully, his way of trading Treasury bond futures and more.
Q: How did you get interested in trading commodities?
A: I grew up in a farming region where most of the farmers were vegetable crop growers - potatoes, onions, similar crops. As a young man, I worked in a potato packing shed, and most of the farmers at the time were trading potato futures. I really didn't know what it was all about, but I was intrigued, so I would copy down the quotations for the Maine potato contract. That was my introduction to the futures markets.
Q: This was before you had started college?
A: Yes. While I was in college, I tried to read up on trading, but it was difficult to find any reading material at all back in 1962. After I graduated in 1964, while I was doing graduate work at the University of Rochester, I found a book by L. Dee Belveal called Commodity Speculation - with Profits in Mind.
Q: And I assume you snapped it up.
A: It was a library book. I must have checked that book out and read through it 20 or 25 different times. That book gave me my first insight into what it really was to be a trader and how to trade. Following that, Belveal wrote another book in 1969 called Charting Commodity Market Price Behavior , and that was the first book I ever purchased about trading. That book opened doors for me because it was about charting and it was about working with numbers, which is an area that I have an affinity for. That was the first time I understood what people meant when they referred to the technical condition of the market or what it was to be a technical trader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-304-310-teacher-trader-still-teaching-joseph-stowell-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-304-310-teacher-trader-still-teaching-joseph-stowell-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-304-310-teacher-trader-still-teaching-joseph-stowell-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-sidecup-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (311): SIDEBAR: Cups and caps by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (311): SIDEBAR: Cups and caps by Thom Hartle
Cup and cap patterns are technical formations used to signal short-term trades. The cup pattern is the basis for a sell signal when the instrument being traded is in an uptrend, while if the instrument is trading in a downtrend, then the cap pattern is the setup for a buy signal.
First, the direction of the trend is identified, and then the cup and cap patterns are used for the trading signals. The trend is determined by using a pattern called the three-bar net line. Before discussing the cup and cap formations, let's look at how the three-bar net line is identified and used to determine the trend direction.
The three-bar net line is calculated by starting with the current trading day. If the market is rising, making a series of higher highs preceded by higher lows, locate the day with the highest high. The low of this day will be day 1. Look to the left on the chart and find the previous low that is equal to or lower than day 1. That bar becomes day 2. From day 2, compare this low to the preceding low that is equal to or lower than day 2. That bar becomes day 3. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-311-sidebar-cups-and-caps-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-311-sidebar-cups-and-caps-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-311-sidebar-cups-and-caps-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c07-wholebr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:07 (313-314): The Whole Brain Trader by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:07 (313-314): The Whole Brain Trader by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Does the part of the brain that influences you the most affect how you trade? The founder of Trading on Target explains the importance of using skills that are built on both intuitive and deductive mental processes.
Did you know that the side of your brain that is dominant will influence how you think and what kind of trader you will be? No matter which side is dominant, however, you can influence the outcome. How you use and combine information from each side of the brain will determine how successful you become.
LEFT BRAIN VS. RIGHT BRAIN
Years of study and observation have gone into the recent interest in articles about left-brain and right-brain thinking. Psychologists have proved that thought patterns represented by each of the two hemispheres of the brain are distinct. The left part of the brain seems to direct logical, intellectual and linear thought processes required by lawyers, doctors and technically oriented professionals, such as scientists, engineers and computer people. On the other side, the right part of the brain seems to direct the creative, artistic and intuitive thought processes required by artists,\nwriters, athletes and people-oriented professionals such as salespeople and therapists.
Depending on which hemisphere of the brain is dominant, the individual will find the motor skills on the opposite side of the body to be dominant as well.
The thinking process that comes from the dominant side of the brain in each of us guides us into the kind of work we like to do and how well we'll do it. Work that requires details and logical thinking is uncomfortable for predominantly right-brained people, whereas work that requires creativity, intuition and the ability to work with ambiguity is uncomfortable for predominantly left-brained people."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-313-314-the-whole-brain-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-313-314-the-whole-brain-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-07-313-314-the-whole-brain-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-utility-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (321-328): The Utility Average Stock Market Indicator by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (321-328): The Utility Average Stock Market Indicator by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Here's a new indicator for trading the Standard & Poor's 500 index, based on the relative performance of the Dow Jones Utilities Average to the S&P. Trading rules and supportive studies are also provided.
The Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) has long been acknowledged as a leading indicator for the stock market. The literature on the DJUA as a leading indicator has been mostly anecdotal. To date, no rigorously tested method using the utility average as a leading indicator has been published.
\nThat's easy enough to remedy. Here, I will rigorously test two different methods using the utility average to predict the stock market direction. I will use weekly closes of the DJUA and weekly closes of the Standard & Poor's 500 index to represent the stock market. The test period I will use to derive a utility average indicator is data from January 4, 1980, to March 31, 1995; the out-of-sample† test period is from January 2, 1953, to December 26, 1975. My goal here is to develop an indicator using recent market data and to see if the indicator could work on substantially different market data. Testing and optimization is done using TradeStation 3.5 from Omega Research.
UD% PRICE CHANGE INDICATOR
One of the easiest indicators to test is the UD% indicator, which was described in my July 1995 STOCKS & COMMODITIES article. I optimized the UD% system on the utility average using weekly closes from January 4, 1980, to March 31, 1995. The logic of the UD% system is as follows: If the utility average rises u % from the weekly lowest low closing price that was recorded while we were short, then we would buy the S&P 500 average on its weekly close. If the utility average falls d % from the weekly highest high closing price that was recorded while we were long, then we would short the S&P 500. Figure 1 presents an abbreviated performance summary of the optimization results. The highest total net profit was the optimization objective. The best stable optimization parameters were u % =5 and d % = 14. \""Stable\"" in this instance means that the net profit doesn't change substantially for small changes in parameters."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-321-328-the-utility-average-stock-market-indicator-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-321-328-the-utility-average-stock-market-indicator-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-321-328-the-utility-average-stock-market-indicator-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-dividnd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (329-331): Dividend Yield Buy-and-Hold Meter by Elliott Middleton"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (329-331): Dividend Yield Buy-and-Hold Meter by Elliott Middleton
Here's a comparison of the historical dividend yield of the S&P 500 on a monthly basis and what the 10-year total return for the S&P was after each observation of the dividend yield.
How many times have you heard this: \""Over any 10-year period, you'll do fine in the stock market. Just buy and\nhold, don't try to time the market. Everyone knows you can't time the market.\""
Wrong. While generations of finance professors have been taught - and in turn have taught their students - that the stock market follows a random walk†, a new wave of research, much of it coming from the same universities that originated the random walk theory, has challenged the status quo.
The relationship between dividend yield on the broad market and succeeding long period returns is one that\npractitioners have been aware of for decades. The stock market exhibits long-term autocorrelations - that is, decades of exceptionally good returns tend to be followed by decades of exceptionally bad returns. This pattern is consistent with a commonly seen story in the stock market that stresses the tendency of participants to overreact; they become too bullish on the way up, and too bearish on the way down. Gustave LeBon wrote about such tendencies a century ago in The Crowd ."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-329-331-dividend-yield-buy-and-hold-meter-by-elliott-middleton-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-329-331-dividend-yield-buy-and-hold-meter-by-elliott-middleton-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-329-331-dividend-yield-buy-and-hold-meter-by-elliott-middleton-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-using-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (332-336): Using Value and Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (332-336): Using Value and Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle
There are various ways to select what stocks to trade. Here's a method that combines fundamental value and technical analysis as a way to select a stock, and a real-world trading situation on which it was applied.
\nEvery trader has a limited amount of capital to put to work in a sea of stocks. The trader, much like a fisherman, casts a net over the water, culling for the keepers and discarding the little ones. In trading, the technique is referred to as screening , creating a list of stocks that qualify for further study and then implementing a profitable strategy on those that remain.
I explained such a strategy in my article in the January 1995 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, \""Relative dividend yield and technical analysis.\"" To recap: Calculate the ratio of the company's dividend yield relative to the Standard & Poor's 500 yield. Next, look for stocks that currently have a ratio meeting the criteria as described in Relative Dividend Yield by Anthony E. Spare and Nancy C. Tengler and draw up a list of those. Third, look over this list of stocks for those undergoing a technical change in the trend from down to up. Those are the ones to own. In my January 1995 article, I showed a trade I had executed in early 1994 using this strategy.
This strategy appealed to me because there was an overlap of fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The fundamental analysis used a concept of undervalue for a company based on a historically high yield relative to the yield of the S&P 500. Often, these are mature companies, well known to the financial community and the investing public. If I saw positive technical evidence of a change in the trend, I surmised I would see news following that the company had put its problems, be they short or long term in nature, behind them. I concluded that the company in turn would begin to show up on buy lists, bringing in new investors, driving the price of the stock higher as the word spread about the improved outlook for the company.
This concept of using the dividend yield of a company as a proxy for when a stock is low and high struck me as being a useful screen for stocks. Then, in the August 1994 S&C, I interviewed Geraldine Weiss, editor of the stock advisory newsletter Investment Quality Trends (IQT). During the interview, Weiss explained her method of screening stocks and classifying them into one of four categories: ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-332-336-using-value-and-technical-analysis-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-332-336-using-value-and-technical-analysis-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-332-336-using-value-and-technical-analysis-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-shouldy-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (337-341): Should You Trade Futures? by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (337-341): Should You Trade Futures? by Jay Kaeppel
Here's some helpful advice to novices who are considering trading commodity futures. This should give you some idea of what's involved. And whether you\nshould.
Each year, many individuals take a deep breath, open futures trading accounts and begin trading on their own. Their reasons for doing so are numerous and diverse, but they generally fall into one of several categories. For the most part, these individuals have:
• Had a lot of success in stocks, mutual funds or bonds and want to parlay their winnings by branching out into\nfutures.
• Had some degree of success in stocks, mutual funds or bonds but have gotten bored. They want to try something.
• Had little or no success in stocks, mutual funds or bonds and figure they had better try something else.
• Heard of someone from somebody else who didn't know much about trading but made a fortune in pork bellies, cotton or some other market, and figure, \""Why not me?\""
Whatever the primary reason, in most cases it is the lure of easy money that draws people to the futures market. And in fact, they do come to the right place. Few areas of financial investment offer the potential rewards that successful futures trading can generate. Unfortunately, many new futures traders are so busy focusing on the \""potential reward\"" part of the equation that they tend to overlook the \""potential risk\"" downside. It is this failure to properly prepare for the potential pitfalls associated with futures trading that causes the high rate of failure among individual futures traders.
The first question that an individual who is considering entering the futures market should ask is not \""How should I trade?\"" No, the first question to ask is, \""Should I trade?\"" Before answering too quickly, most prospective new traders would be well served to consider the possibilities and pitfalls."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-337-341-should-you-trade-futures-by-jay-kaeppel-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-337-341-should-you-trade-futures-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-337-341-should-you-trade-futures-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-stoppin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (342-344): Stopping Points in Trading by Ari Kiev, MD"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (342-344): Stopping Points in Trading by Ari Kiev, MD
This psychiatrist, who teaches strategies for trading success, discusses the identification and management of psychological stopping points that can limit your success as a trader.
It happens to everyone sooner or later: Disaster strikes. When the market goes against you, automatic physical and emotional stress responses may manifest themselves as unplanned withdrawal or overtrading. When this occurs, a cycle of misinterpretation and overreaction to the marketplace remains alive until the trader can learn to deal with the adverse events through a more proactive and disciplined trading strategy.\nThe stopping point is the whole sequence of events, reactions, interpretations and automatic decision making that characterizes your approach to life and trading that may keep you from being fully engaged in trading opportunities.
A stopping point can even be the absence of a trading objective. It rationalizes your position by the fact that it is\nconsistent and satisfactory, when it may in fact be a cover for your unwillingness to take a larger risk.
To be able to act, you must know when your stopping point has been reached and when you are trading in an\nunsuccessful pattern. Everyone has such a stopping point, and most traders evince several of the following patterns that reflect conflicts that are repeatedly expressed in unconscious negative behavior."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-342-344-stopping-points-in-trading-by-ari-kiev-md-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-342-344-stopping-points-in-trading-by-ari-kiev-md-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-342-344-stopping-points-in-trading-by-ari-kiev-md-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-trendin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (345-347): Trending on a Historical Basis by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (345-347): Trending on a Historical Basis by Alex Saitta
The question is as old as technical analysis itself: Does the market trend? Here's a method to determine the degree to which markets trend historically. In addition, there's a comparison of various markets based on the observable degree of trend.
In the pursuit of profit, most traders spend hours each day trying to forecast whether the market is about to trend upward or downward. However, some traders pursue their quest for profit in a different way. These traders are not concerned with the direction the market will move; rather, they are concerned with whether the market tends to move for a significant length of time - does the market tend to trend?
These traders use a trend-following trading method (for example, moving averages) as a way to capture market\nprofits. Instead of having to identify whether the market is about to go up or down, however, the trend-follower\nmust determine if the market has a tendency to trend.
TO TREND OR NOT TO TREND?
Although it may seem easy to identify whether a market tends to trend, to the naked eye this can be difficult to\nascertain. Take a look at the two series shown in Figure 1. One is random - that is, consecutive prices are not correlated. The other is trending - consecutive prices are correlated; that is, when the most recent price rose (or fell), the probability the price would rise (or fall) the next day was 60%. By looking at these two charts, can you tell which series is random and which one trends?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-345-347-trending-on-a-historical-basis-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-345-347-trending-on-a-historical-basis-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-345-347-trending-on-a-historical-basis-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-basic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (348-351): Basic Techniques for Analyzing Systems by Mike DeAmicis-Roberts"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (348-351): Basic Techniques for Analyzing Systems by Mike DeAmicis-Roberts
What should you consider when you're designing or testing a trading system? Here are some hints that may help you.
Trading is all about fear and greed,\"" a trader once said. He was right. Every trader has to deal with his or her own levels of fear and greed. Individuals have their own objectives for profit and tolerance for risk. Some traders want to achieve the greatest profit while ignoring risk, while others are looking for the smoothest equity curve. The system a trader develops should be aligned with the personal needs of the trader in question. Here are some techniques for analyzing systems so a trader can custom fit a particular system to specific investment needs, as well as some hazards of using a particular type of analysis. These techniques can also be helpful to the trader who is just beginning to develop a system.
First, and foremost, it is important to remember that there is no ultimate formula, no Holy Grail, when selecting or designing a system. But there are some basic steps to take before you consider the relative profitability of a system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-348-351-basic-techniques-for-analyzing-systems-by-mike-deamicis-roberts-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-348-351-basic-techniques-for-analyzing-systems-by-mike-deamicis-roberts-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-348-351-basic-techniques-for-analyzing-systems-by-mike-deamicis-roberts-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-pattern-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (352-358): Pattern Recognition and T-Bond Futures by Scott W. Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (352-358): Pattern Recognition and T-Bond Futures by Scott W. Barrie
Pattern recognition is used to standardize and categorize market behavior into quantifiable market movements. After a collection of patterns have been\nidentified, the market movement following each pattern can be measured. This post-pattern description can be used as a forecasting tool. In this article, Merrill waves are used as the basis for the patterns and forecasting.
The goal of market analysis is to answer two simple questions: What is the direction of prices, and how much time will elapse before the direction changes? Pattern recognition is one avenue that an analyst may take to answer these questions. A major problem in designing a pattern recognition system lies in the fact that not all patterns are static in terms of time and price. Some simple chart patterns, such as a key reversal, are static in terms of time and price; for example, an operational definition of a key reversal could be \""The high today is greater than yesterday's high, and the close today is less than yesterday's close.\"" This pattern is static in terms of time (only two days to complete) and static in terms of price (today's high is either higher than yesterday's high or it's not, and the same can\nbe said for the close). Candlestick patterns, another set of chart patterns, in general lend themselves to simple static definitions.
COMPLEXITY
Many chart patterns are much more complex; for instance, consider the head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern is not static in terms of price or time. A head-and-shoulders pattern can take from several days to months to form, and the relative positions of the left and right shoulder can be different, and even double- and triple-shoulder formations are permissible. All possible combinations of a simple head-and-shoulders pattern is beyond any simple static definition, but there are ways to reduce the complexities of patterns. The easiest way to overcome these difficulties is to incorporate filtering into the pattern recognition process.
In my previous article, I discussed using filters of x % as a basis for building a reference point to predict future market behavior. This is done by grouping together all moves of a certain percentage magnitude and taking average behavior after such moves. This is a simple form of pattern recognition. The pattern, a filtered wave , is composed of the inception point (starting point) and a point that is x % above or below the inception point, referred to as the\napex."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-352-358-pattern-recognition-and-t-bond-futures-by-scott-w-barrie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-352-358-pattern-recognition-and-t-bond-futures-by-scott-w-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-352-358-pattern-recognition-and-t-bond-futures-by-scott-w-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-sidemon-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (352-358): Sidebar: Money Management"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MONEY MANAGEMENT
There are two common ways of trading an account. The way an account will be traded in real-time should be the\nsame as the way the system was historically tested. Otherwise, the analysis will be incorrect."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-352-358-sidebar-money-management-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-352-358-sidebar-money-management-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-352-358-sidebar-money-management-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-sidecon-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (357): Sidebar: Constructing MW patterns"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (357): Sidebar: Constructing MW patterns
Here are the formulas for identifying MW patterns using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Columns A through E\ncontain the date, open, high, low and close of the data you wish to analyze. In sidebar Figures 1 and 2, the data is September 1994 Treasury bond futures. Cell G1 has the filter size, which will be 0.01, but first, name the cell as a filter, using the insert-name-define keystroke sequence (see your manual regarding defining a name for a cell) and then enter 0.01."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-357-sidebar-constructing-mw-patterns-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-357-sidebar-constructing-mw-patterns-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-357-sidebar-constructing-mw-patterns-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c08-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:08 (359-365): The Nature of Risk: Justin Mamis and the Meaning of Life by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.13:08 (359-365): The Nature of Risk: Justin Mamis and the Meaning of Life by Thom Hartle
Looking back on decades of market activity can give anyone a certain perspective, and Justin Mamis, who writes the Mamis Letter, a newsletter for Hancock Institutional Equity Services that is a joint venture of Tucker Anthony and Sutro & Co., certainly has the experience to speak about. He became interested in the stock market in the post-Korean War period, and in the ensuing four decades has seen tops and bottoms, been an executive at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), worked in a specialist firm, traded options on the American Stock Exchange (ASE), seen the development of trading instruments that were unheard of when he started out, and experienced - and not\nnecessarily to his liking - the introduction of a tool that is nearly ubiquitous today, the personal computer. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Justin Mamis on May 26, 1995, about how the markets, money managers and technical analysis itself have changed over the years.
Q: When did your interest in the markets begin?
A: I started the way a lot of people do - knowing nothing and having no real interest in the stock market, but having just a little bit of money. A broker put me in stocks that went down and I thought that there had to be a better way to invest in the market than that. So I looked for information about trading, and one step I took was answering an ad in Barron's to subscribe to John Magee's newsletter. I read his newsletters and I read his Technical Analysis of Stock Trends , and I even talked to him on the phone a couple of times. And that's how I got into charting.
Q: When was this?
A: This was the mid-1950s, right after the Korean War. I became more interested in the stock market, so after a while I got a job as a retail broker on Wall Street. All I knew at that point was charting, and I knew I was a writer, so my goal was to do some writing about the market. That's not the right combination for a retail salesman, so that job didn't work out. Then I went to work for the NYSE. I became the assistant director of the floor department in charge of investigations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-359-365-the-nature-of-risk-justin-mamis-and-the-meaning-of-life-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-359-365-the-nature-of-risk-justin-mamis-and-the-meaning-of-life-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-08-359-365-the-nature-of-risk-justin-mamis-and-the-meaning-of-life-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-thetime-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (369-374): The Time Price Oscillator by Tushar S. Chande"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Time Price Oscillator by Tushar S. Chande
Technical indicators, and oscillators in particular, measure the behavior of price relative to time. For example, the rate of change oscillator calculates the\npercentage change in price over a set period. That said, now consider an indicator that reverses the roles of price to time and measures the passage of time\nrelative to price. This article details such an indicator, presenting numerous applications.
All major price trends evolve, both in price and time. A market trading in a sideways trend may begin to advance, turning into an upward trend, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Over time the uptrend will mature and move into a sideways trend again, ultimately forming a market top, and then a downward trend will emerge. This new trend, led by lower lows and lower highs, will reach a market bottom and form another sideways trend.
During each phase of the trend, money can be made by simply following the trend or by anticipating price changes about a trend. For example, you can design a trend-following method to establish positions in accordance with the major trend. However, you can also use a trading range method, buying at the lower side of a trading range and selling at the upper side. This would be considered an antitrend philosophy.
The key question is: When is the best time to do either? At what point during a market cycle should you expect a\ntrend to begin or end, and when can you accurately estimate that the direction has changed?
You can count on the markets changing direction, just as you can count on day following the night. Like the sun, trends emerge, rise to a peak, weaken and fade away. In Sanskrit, aroon is the word for dawn's early light, the first sign of a new day or a change from night to day. Thus, \""aroon\"" is an apt name for an indicator that is sensitive to the beginning of a new trend. This new indicator combines price and time in a way that illuminates the evolution of the price trend, and you can use it to identify periods when trend-following or antitrend strategies are likely to succeed.
THE BASICS OF AROON
The simplest definition of an uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Similarly, the definition of a downtrend is a series of lower lows and lower highs. However, within this definition, prices can evolve in any of a number of ways. The distinct manner in which a trend moves can include a combination of price relationships; for example, traders often compare today's price to some price in the past, such as today's high to a high a number of days ago. Overlooked in this process is the passage of time as a measurable component of the picture. Hence, we can ask this question: How many days have passed since the most recent x -day high or most recent x -day low?
To answer the question in trading terms, we can use a breakout criterion and use a fixed period for reference. Say we arbitrarily pick 25 days as our reference period, since this number roughly corresponds to one month of data. We can now define a trend as consisting of a series of higher 25-day highs and higher 25-day lows, or as a series of lower 25-day lows and lower 25-day highs. All that remains is to ask how much time has passed since the most recent 25-day high or low."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-369-374-the-time-price-oscillator-by-tushar-s-chande-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-369-374-the-time-price-oscillator-by-tushar-s-chande-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-369-374-the-time-price-oscillator-by-tushar-s-chande-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-detect-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (375-376): Detecting the Minimum Tradable Cycle by Robert Wayman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING TECHNIQUES Detecting The Minimum Tradable Cycle by Robert Wayman
Cycle theorists will tell you that there may be tradable cycles within market data. Before looking for those cycles, though, you must determine the noise level\nwithin the data. Here are some methods to do so in this, the first of two parts.
The simple moving average (SMA) is the most basic of what can be done to a pricing datastream, whether for\nstocks, futures, options or other financial instruments. The simple moving average is easy to calculate and allows us to quickly interpret what prices are doing. If prices are above the moving average, then the pricing data series must be advancing; if prices are below the moving average, then the pricing datastream must be declining.
But the simple moving average needs cyclic variations to do its job, and some cycles are more tradable than others. Recently, I completed a study of the cycle-driven SMA that casts light on its operation and some of its drawbacks. By looking at the SMA and determining its weaknesses, we should be able to gain insight into the operation of indicators related to the SMA as well.
When we think of trading an instrument (as opposed to buy and hold), we are implicitly thinking of cycles in the\npricing series. By using a mathematical procedure called a Fourier transform, we can find out the frequencies at which this cycle's energy lies."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-375-376-detecting-the-minimum-tradable-cycle-by-robert-wayman-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-375-376-detecting-the-minimum-tradable-cycle-by-robert-wayman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-375-376-detecting-the-minimum-tradable-cycle-by-robert-wayman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-sidecal-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (377): SIDEBAR: Calculating noise level"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CALCULATING NOISE LEVEL
Some of the other methods I use to calculate noise level (NL) are: ...
where P is the averaging period for the daily range; the article's Figure 3 is a plot of ADR j .
Another method uses the average daily range and three standard deviations of the daily range: ...
The next method uses the length of the price path data file (ADR j ), the lookback period (P ) and the length of the\noriginal pricing data file (M ): ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-377-sidebar-calculating-noise-level-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-377-sidebar-calculating-noise-level-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-377-sidebar-calculating-noise-level-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-short-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (379-383): The Short-Range Oscillator and the DJIA by Christopher Cadbury"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING TECHNIQUES The Short-Range Oscillator\nAnd The DJIA by Christopher Cadbury
Oscillators come in many shapes and forms. Here, one unique oscillator is analyzed to determine patterns and the results in the stock market after a particular pattern occurs.
A simple oscillator mathematically modifies the price data so the results oscillate in a range. Some oscillators use a range of zero to 100, while others move above and below zero. For example, one popular oscillator is the difference between today's closing price and a 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of the closing price. If the closing price is above the SMA, then the oscillator will show a positive value. If the closing price is below the SMA, the oscillator will show a negative reading. Technicians will plot the values for the oscillator right below the price chart to determine relationships between the price and the oscillator. Patterns on the oscillator may indicate reliable trading signals. These signals may evince market reversals or confirmations of market trends.
SHORT-RANGE OSCILLATOR
Oscillators are not always as simple as the one just described. One example is the short-range oscillator, which is presented on the back page of the Trendline Daily Action Stock Service , published by Standard & Poor's Corp.Subscribers may obtain daily values about 30 minutes after the stock market closes.
The short-range oscillator is a combination of the daily number of advances, daily unchanged, and closing prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The indicator measures the strength of the stock market using a combination of the breadth of the market movement and the price direction. The indicator uses the differences between the raw values and their respective moving averages. The short-range oscillator uses a horizontal line of neutral values, which in the charts is referred to as the zero line . Generally, the oscillator patterns in relation to the zero is important. For the complete calculation, see the \""Short-range oscillator\"" sidebar.
The standard use of the short-range oscillator with values of 4.0 and over indicates an overbought market and that a market decline is due. Values of -4.0 or below indicates an oversold market, and a market rally can be expected. Unfortunately, these values are frequently not very helpful because markets that are overbought stay overbought and oversold markets often remain oversold."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-379-383-the-short-range-oscillator-and-the-djia-by-christopher-cadbury-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-379-383-the-short-range-oscillator-and-the-djia-by-christopher-cadbury-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-379-383-the-short-range-oscillator-and-the-djia-by-christopher-cadbury-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-sidesho-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (381): SIDEBAR: The short-range oscillator"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE SHORT-RANGE OSCILLATOR
The short-range oscillator combines daily New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) market statistics with the daily closing\nprice of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to provide indications of overbought and oversold market\nconditions. Sidebar Figure 1 is a Microsoft Excel 4.0 spreadsheet demonstrating the results of the formulas. The first\nstep is to add the day's number of advancing stocks to 50% of the day's number of unchanged stocks and express\nthis sum as a percentage of the total issues traded. This step is calculated in column E. Enter the following formula\ninto cell E2 and copy down:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-381-sidebar-the-short-range-oscillator-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-381-sidebar-the-short-range-oscillator-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-381-sidebar-the-short-range-oscillator-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-refinin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (388-391): Refining the Relative Volatility Index by Donald Dorsey"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING TECHNIQUES Refining The Relative\nVolatility Index by Donald Dorsey
The relative volatility index was designed to measure the direction of volatilty. Since it was first introduced, however, its developer has not simply rested on his\nlaurels; here are further refinements on the original.
\nIn 1993, when I introduced the relative volatility index (RVI), my intention was to demonstrate how greater\nperformance can be achieved if technical indicators are diversified in a trading system. My thinking was that since the vast majority of technical indicators are derived by calculating price change, a trading system could be improved if a confirming indicator, used as a filter, were added. This filter, the RVI, calculated strength by measuring volatility rather than price change, adding the diversification previously lacking in many systems.
Since then, I've repeatedly been asked how the RVI could be used to measure long-term market trends, the most common usage of filters by traders. In truth, there are several advantages to using a long-term filter in a trading system; not only does it tend to reduce the number of trades and thereby your expenses, it can also provide quantifiable evidence to determine the trend and add diversity by measuring trend strength over a different time span.
WHAT A TREND IS
Before designing a trend indicator, one must first determine what a trend is. One theory holds that a trend is simply the outward result of inertia. Once a market begins to move, it takes significantly more energy for it to change direction than for it to continue along the same path. Therefore, a measurement of trend is really a measurement of market inertia.
Looking at inertia requires two inputs, direction of motion and mass. Direction is easy, even though some may argue that determining the time frame over which to define a direction is difficult. Once decided, however, the direction of the market relative to that time frame is self-evident. For example, defining a trend as whether the market is above or below its 200-day moving average is a simple calculation based entirely on market direction."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-388-391-refining-the-relative-volatility-index-by-donald-dorsey-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-388-391-refining-the-relative-volatility-index-by-donald-dorsey-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-388-391-refining-the-relative-volatility-index-by-donald-dorsey-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-sideold-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (392): SIDEBAR: Old RVI, new RVI and inertia"",""caption-linebreaks"":""OLD RVI, NEW RVI AND INERTIA
The relative volatility index (RVI) is a modified form of the relative strength index (RSI). The original RSI\ncalculation separates one-day net changes into positive closes and negative closes, then smoothes the data and\nnormalizes the ratio on a scale of 11 to 100 as the basis for the formula. The RVI uses the same basic formula but\nsubstitutes the 10-day standard deviation of the last 10 days' closing prices for either the up close or the down close.\nThe goal is to create an indicator that measures and reports the general direction of the volatility. In a Microsoft Excel\n4.0 spreadsheet (sidebar Figures 1 and 2), the formulas RVI, new RVI and inertia for the Standard & Poor's 500\nindex are presented. All formulas are copied down from the first cell entry except the instructions for cells G24,\nH24, L24, M24, Q24 and R24. For the old RVI, the up close column is in column E. The formula for cell E11 is:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-392-sidebar-old-rvi-new-rvi-and-inertia-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-392-sidebar-old-rvi-new-rvi-and-inertia-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-392-sidebar-old-rvi-new-rvi-and-inertia-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-prevent-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (394-397): Preventing Trader Burnout by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING PSYCHOLOGY Preventing Trader Burnout by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Do you ever feel too tired to go on trading? Do you feel as though you're losing the mental energy to even think about trading? You may be suffering from burnout. Here are some hints to overcome or avoid the problems that can come with trading.
Have you ever had that dulling, lethargic sensation that accompanies a complete lack of desire to do anything\nconstructive? When an individual loses the desire and the energy necessary to continue working, he could be\nsuffering from burnout. In such cases, it's almost as if the spirit and body go on strike. This mental and physical shutdown occurs when a person is pushed or pushes too hard for too long. In essence, burnout is an unconscious survival response, forcing our internal and emotional mechanisms to shut down for repairs.
When a trader is too exhausted mentally or physically to trade, he may be experiencing burnout. We can recognize some of the warning signs. If a trader is heading in that direction, he may find that he:
Has a hard time getting up in the morning
Wakes up throughout the night, gets up tired and fights exhaustion all day long
Feels a sense of hopelessness about trading and everything else in his life
Loses his temper at inconsequential annoyances
Begins to lose his sense of control over his trading.
RECIPES FOR BURNOUT
Few other occupations have such frequent opportunities for debilitating losses as trading. Because of this constant challenge to perform, trading has a constant danger for burnout. Any hardship on your emotional and physical well-being can push you in that direction. The causes for this condition vary, but all have to do with a buildup of stress. Here are some examples of traders suffering from burnout."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-394-397-preventing-trader-burnout-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-394-397-preventing-trader-burnout-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-394-397-preventing-trader-burnout-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-interst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (398-402): Interest Rates and Stock Returns by Marck C. Snead"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INTERMARKET ANALYSIS Interest Rates And Stock Returns by Mark C. Snead
Stocks perform best when interest rates are declining, but rate levels can make a difference. Here's how.
Interest rates can be a dependable component of a stock market forecasting model. Many models use changes in interest rates, in which falling interest rates are considered to be more favorable for stock prices than rising rates are. Many of these applications have weathered the rigors of lengthy real-time testing and are among the favorite tools of market forecasters.
Often overlooked in the relationship between interest rates and stock prices, however, is the forecasting information in the level of rates. Most researchers simply ignore the level because the link to stock returns is not well understood and extracting useful forecasting information can be difficult. Several theories suggest that low rates should be more favorable for stocks than high rates, but direct tests of this simple relationship indicate only a weak link and show little promise as a foundation for building forecasting models.
But it is possible to use a simple analytical tool to extract vital forecasting information from interest rate levels. The process is based on the assertion that interest rate changes and levels should not be tested individually for a link to stock returns but should instead be examined jointly. Joint testing reveals otherwise inaccessible forecasting information contained in the level of rates, but the primary by-product is the ability to produce a much more reliable forecast than is possible using only rate changes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-398-402-interest-rates-and-stock-returns-by-marck-c-snead-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-398-402-interest-rates-and-stock-returns-by-marck-c-snead-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-398-402-interest-rates-and-stock-returns-by-marck-c-snead-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:09 (403-408): New Market Wizard Robert Krausz by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INTERVIEW Trading with the Conscious and Subconscious Minds: New Market Wizard Robert Krausz by Thom Hartle
Robert Krausz, who was featured in Jack Schwager's The New Market Wizards, is many things: He is a trader, a student of the market, and a practicing hypnotherapist as well as a special investment advisor to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. With that background in mind, STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Krausz on June 20, 1995, via a telephone interview about the steps to successful trading, the role of the subconscious for traders, and other topics.
Q: How did you get interested in trading the markets?
A: Back in 1979, when the gold market was in its major bull run and headed toward the $800 mark, one of my friends was making a lot of money trading. He told me one day that I was silly to be working so hard in my own business, that I should look into trading, as this was the easy way to make money. I was intrigued, so I listened and I went to his broker, opened an account and lo and behold, of course, I made money.
Q: You were off and running, just like that?!
A: No, not really. The market went up and then it decided that it wasn't going to go up any farther, but I still kept on buying. That was a big mistake, because I gave back all of my profits, plus more. It was a very painful experience. So I closed out my account. Fortunately, I still had a good business and I didn't have to change my lifestyle, but it was still quite a substantial loss."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-403-408-new-market-wizard-robert-krausz-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-403-408-new-market-wizard-robert-krausz-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-09-403-408-new-market-wizard-robert-krausz-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-theendp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (413-417): The End Point Moving Average by Patrick E. Lafferty"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INDICATORS The End Point Moving Average by Patrick E. Lafferty
Moving averages have been used for decades to smooth out the noise in the prices of tradables. Here's an entry in the category, one that may provide a more\naccurate representation of market trends and turn out to be a more sensitive indicator of trend changes.
A century ago, Charles Henry Dow observed that trends and noise were major components of stock market\nprice movements. Recent research into the fractal nature of markets has confirmed those observations by\ndemonstrating that economic and capital market time series are biased random walks. Simply put, the changes of market prices with respect to time can be described as trends with noise.
Until now, two main techniques, the simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA), have been used to smooth out the noise and reveal underlying trends in the prices of financial instruments. I will discuss these two methods and compare their performance with that of a third approach that I call an end point moving average (EPMA). (Editor's note: MetaStock users can use the time series forecast indicator, and SuperCharts users can use the linear regression indicator.)
Here's a quick review of simple moving averages and exponential moving averages: A simple moving average is the arithmetic mean or average of a series of prices over some fixed period of time. For example, today's value for an 11-day simple moving average is calculated by adding together today's closing price and the daily closing prices for the preceding 10 days and dividing by 11. The conventional position for plotting the SMA is at the end of the period being averaged. Thus, for an 11-day SMA, the SMA value calculated on day 11 would be plotted on day 11."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-413-417-the-end-point-moving-average-by-patrick-e-lafferty-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-413-417-the-end-point-moving-average-by-patrick-e-lafferty-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-413-417-the-end-point-moving-average-by-patrick-e-lafferty-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-identif-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (418-424): Identifying Powerful Breakouts Early by Tushar S. Chande"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING TECHNIQUES Identifying Powerful Breakouts\nEarly by Tushar S. Chande
High-powered breakouts occur with a strong surge of momentum in the direction of the price change. Such breakouts may be short-lived, however, occurring\ntoward the latter stages of a long trend. Sometimes, such breakouts signal the end of one trend and the beginning of another. In either case, identifying such market action early is likely to be highly profitable. Here, Contributing Editor Tushar Chande shows how you can use his original indicators, VIDYA and the dynamic\nmomentum index, to find big market moves.
Taking advantage of a major breakout can be one of the most satisfying of all trades. However, there is no consistent definition of what a breakout is. Many price breakouts will not be decisive, because the market will enter another consolidation phase or reenter the previous region of price congestion; such weak breakouts occur when the markets lack strength. An even more difficult scenario for a trader is when markets break out in one direction with good momentum, only to reverse in a few days, and then break out in the opposite direction with even greater\nmomentum. In such cases, the trader should reverse the initial trade but may lack the courage to do so, while others may simply be stopped out.
Given the ever-changing nature of markets, is there a consistent framework that can be used to analyze breakouts? There may be. Combining a variable-length moving average (VIDYA) and a variable-length momentum oscillator (dynamic momentum index, or DMI) may help identify high-powered breakouts early. (For more information on VIDYA, see sidebar, \""Variable-length moving average.\"")
A combination of VIDYA and DMI may be used to identify when prices have broken out and when the breakout has occurred with great strength. To do so, a 1% band around VIDYA may be optimal. Whenever the market closes above the upper band or below the lower band, we can assume that prices have broken out in that direction. A close above the upper band implies that prices will move higher, while a close below the lower band implies prices will move lower. A more conservative criterion could be called for, such as multiple closes beyond the 1% bands, or insisting that the low be above the upper band (or high below the lower band) to recognize a breakout.
We can use the DMI to measure momentum, averring that the DMI rise above 70 or fall below 30 to confirm the presence of a powerful breakout. Once these criteria are met, you can contemplate a trade, plan for a possible failure of the breakout and hope for a massive follow through.
The ideas underlying VIDYA and DMI were discussed previously in Stocks & Commodities articles as well as The New Technical Trader. Both indicators adjust their length of calculation using a market volatility index. With\nVIDYA, this means that the average moves faster when the volatility increases and it slows down when volatility\ndecreases. The DMI is a variable-length relative strength index† (RSI); its effective length decreases when volatility increases, and the effective length increases when volatility decreases. If we use a 14-day RSI as reference, the effective length of DMI varies from as low as five days to as high as 30 days."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-418-424-identifying-powerful-breakouts-early-by-tushar-s-chande-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-418-424-identifying-powerful-breakouts-early-by-tushar-s-chande-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-418-424-identifying-powerful-breakouts-early-by-tushar-s-chande-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-sidevar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (424): SIDEBAR: Variable-length moving average"",""caption-linebreaks"":""VARIABLE-LENGTH MOVING AVERAGE by Thom Hartle
Tushar Chande's variable-length moving average (VIDYA) uses a measure of volatility to modify the smoothing constant used in an exponential moving average (EMA). In the article, Chande uses the Chande momentum oscillator (CMO) to measure volatility. The CMO is based on the popular indicator relative strength indicator (RSI). The only difference between the two oscillators is the ratio has an extra term (- Sd ) in the numerator of the formula: ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-424-sidebar-variable-length-moving-average-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-424-sidebar-variable-length-moving-average-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-424-sidebar-variable-length-moving-average-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-options-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (425-429): Options Spread Psychology by Steven P. Schinke, Ph.D"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING PSYCHOLOGY Options Spread Psychology by Steven P. Schinke, Ph.D.
Choosing an options spread strategy depends in part on individual psychology about market conditions. By understanding how emotions affect behavior, traders\ncan add precision to their options spread positions.
Options spread positions are trades that involve the simultaneous purchase and sale of two or more options to exploit differences in price change between them. By initiating such a position, the trader can forecast how the market will move. Implicit in that forecast is the trader's confidence about the direction and timing of the anticipated change in option prices.
Here's an example. Mary believes the Standard & Poor's 500 index will move higher over the next two months, but her data suggests the market may not move steadily upward during that period. Rather, her information indicates that the market may fluctuate on its way higher or perhaps slide sideways for several weeks. Mary, considering how she can maximize her profits while minimizing her losses, rules out a straight long futures position because of the high required margin.
Speculating that S&P futures will not drop in the ensuing two months, Mary is nonetheless concerned about the likelihood of adverse fluctuations or the absence of positive changes in that period. Accordingly, she rejects the idea of doing a long option, given the predictable erosion of premium on options expiring at or shortly after her time projections. Based on her analyses and confidence levels, Mary looks instead at two vertical spread opportunities, a call debit spread and a put credit spread.
To implement the first spread, Mary would buy a call option with a strike price at or higher than the current S&P futures contract and concurrently sell a call option with a strike price higher than the one she sold. Despite this strategy's potential profit, it produces a debit when established. That worries Mary because she lacks confidence in the market's ability to advance sufficiently to make back the premium she paid and generate profit."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-425-429-options-spread-psychology-by-steven-p-schinke-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-425-429-options-spread-psychology-by-steven-p-schinke-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-425-429-options-spread-psychology-by-steven-p-schinke-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-sideexp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (429): SIDEBAR: Expectations and Spread Positions"",""caption-linebreaks"":""EXPECTATIONS AND SPREAD POSITIONS
For bull market forecasts, graphs in the top half of the article's Figure 3 portray two spread positions. In these\npositions, the leftmost line on each graph depicts maximum loss as the premium paid for the call debit spread and the\ndifference in strike prices less premium received for the put credit spread. If the price of the underlying issue\nincreases, the loss line first assumes an upward movement as it transverses diagonally to the right and across the zero\nor breakeven line. The breakeven point for a two-contract call debit spread position is the sum of the lower strike\nprice and the premium paid. Thus, the position is net zero when the underlying issue rises from the lowest strike\nprice until it equals premium paid. For a put credit spread, the breakeven point is the highest strike price (the short\nposition) less premium received. So, the position is net zero when the underlying issue moves below the highest\nstrike price until it equals premium received."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-429-sidebar-expectations-and-spread-positions-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-429-sidebar-expectations-and-spread-positions-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-429-sidebar-expectations-and-spread-positions-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (430-437): Andrew Addison of the Addison Report by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INTERVIEW Simplicity for Simplicity's Sake: Andrew Addison Of The Addison Report by Thom Hartle
In this increasingly complicated world, it's a comfort to hear that indicators don't have to be complicated to work well, as Andrew Addison of The Addison Report will tell you. Addison, who edits and publishes the newsletter, which is aimed at individual investors and stockbrokers, uses his law-school training to boil down what's important and eliminate the peripherals - a handy thing for those who subscribe to the Report, as well as The Institutional View, his publication for professional fund managers. As Addison points out, he doesn't just try to find things that work, as we all do, but also things that are simple as well. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Addison via telephone on July 27, 1995, and quizzed him about his views on stocks, bonds, gold and other markets using technical and fundamental analysis.
Q: So how did you get started?
A: My interest in the market began when I was 10 years old. I would read The Wall Street Journal and The New\nYork Times. I was always fascinated by the numbers, and since I was good in math, I started following the market and began charting the market and stocks by hand and also by getting some fundamental information on a company. I opened an account and I put the funds from any job I earned money from into it. That was very useful for paying a good portion of my college expenses.
Q: When was this?
A: This was in the 1960s. I put aside the market when I went off to college. After college I went to law school, but after I graduated, I decided that being a lawyer wasn't what I wanted to do, so then I started graduate studies in business school. About the same time I went to work for Shawmut Bank.
Q: What did you do there?
A: I started out directing customer investments for the bank's large depositors, and then I worked my way into the trading area. There, I managed the bank's trading accounts for Treasury bonds as well as municipal bonds. That was an important formative period for me."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-430-437-andrew-addison-of-the-addison-report-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-430-437-andrew-addison-of-the-addison-report-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-430-437-andrew-addison-of-the-addison-report-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-oexopt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (438-442): OEX Options Expiration Trading Patterns by David K. Moy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""STATISTICS Oex Options Expiration Trading Patterns by David K. Moy
There's a statistically significant bias in the weekly trading of the Standard & Poor's 100 index, in that the week that options expire is noticeably stronger than the week that follows. Statistics that check for significantly different means and ratios can help options traders detect these patterns. Not only that, options expiration patterns can also be useful neural network inputs.
Can the tail wag the dog? It can, if the tail is the expiration of Standard & Poor's 100 index options and the dog is the stock market. These contracts cease trading on the third Friday of each month. During that particular week, the market is often volatile with an upward bias. The following week, however, is often a reversal with a downside tendency.
Figure 1 shows that the average weekly change for the S&P 100 (OEX) was a gain of 0.62 points for the period of January 17, 1986, to May 12, 1995. The biggest difference is the 2.03-point average gain during options expiration versus the average loss of 1.62 points in the week following. I chose the OEX to look at instead of the S&P 500 because the options are more actively traded. Further, I decided to analyze point changes instead of percentage changes because striking prices are governed by absolute rather than relative changes in the OEX.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
To begin with, the hypothesis is that differences exist between the expiration, post-expiration and nonexpiration-affected weeks, while the null hypothesis being tested is that there are no differences between the expiration, post-expiration and nonexpiration-affected weeks. If statistically significant results are uncovered, then the null hypothesis would be rejected.
The t -test is a measure of the likelihood that observed differences in the averages (or the means) is due to chance. If the t -statistic is a large positive or large negative number, then one can be fairly confident that differences are meaningful. A 95% confidence level, or alpha, is typical; this means there is still a 5% chance that the apparently significant large (or very negative) t -statistic results are due to simple bad luck. Statistics can't prove a particular viewpoint beyond any doubt, but they can suggest what is probable or improbable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-438-442-oex-options-expiration-trading-patterns-by-david-k-moy-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-438-442-oex-options-expiration-trading-patterns-by-david-k-moy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-438-442-oex-options-expiration-trading-patterns-by-david-k-moy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-sidetec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (440): SIDEBAR: Technicals"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TECHNICALS
Z test for significance of difference between two proportions
Assume first CTA has 8 winning trades out of 15
Assume second CTA has 41 winning trades out of 113
Test for statistical significance in difference of ratios
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-440-sidebar-technicals-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-440-sidebar-technicals-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-440-sidebar-technicals-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-mathgam-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (443-448): A Mathematical Game Plan by Gene Carey"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MONEY MANAGEMENT A Mathematical Game Plan by Gene Carey
Here's how the elements of a successful trading plan - profits, losses, commissions and slippage - can be used to quantify performance goals.
\nI t's a given: Operating with a game plan is a necessary ingredient in trading success. A trader needs to develop a plan that suits his or her personality and provides an efficient means of operating in the trading framework of choice, be it intraday trading the Standard & Poor's 500, position trading oats, or anything in between.
What does it mean to have a game plan? What is a game plan, how is it formulated, and why is it so important? Are there any elements to a game plan that may be considered universally applicable to any trading enterprise?
Traders come in many different types, but in broad terms they may be classified as either hedgers or speculators. Hedgers are usually large commercial enterprises, while speculators are generally independent traders with relatively limited trading capital and resources. In either case, an operation intent on generating profits from trading activity\nshould be considered and run as a business. While trading should ultimately be fun, this is a serious and important consideration, one that demands a sound framework - in other words, a game plan. So whether you are a hedger or a speculator, certain business considerations need to be formulated."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-443-448-a-mathematical-game-plan-by-gene-carey-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-443-448-a-mathematical-game-plan-by-gene-carey-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-443-448-a-mathematical-game-plan-by-gene-carey-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-whipsaw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (449-453): Whipsaws, Linear Trends and Simple Moving Averages by Robert Wayman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING TECHNIQUES Whipsaws, Linear Trends\nAnd Simple Moving Averages by Robert Wayman
How does whipsaw magnitude affect a simple moving average system? Here's a common solution for the problems of the SMA.
Previously, we looked at cycles and found that there was a noise level-based spectral cutoff point, above which were tradable cycles. We also found that selecting a cycle to trade established the averaging period we need to use in any simple moving average (SMA) crossover trading system. This time, let's look at whipsaws and how whipsaw magnitude actually affects the profitability of a simple moving average system. Let's also take a look at a common fix for the problems of the SMA and try to draw some conclusions about the direction of effective system development.
ONE MORE HURDLE
Once we've selected the averaging period for the moving average crossover system, we only have one more hurdle to cross in our quest for profitability, but it's a big one: whipsaws. What level of whipsaw cycle magnitude will render an SMA crossover trading system useless? My moving average crossover system is based on a simple moving average, but the basic thrust of the derivation applies to any moving average system with a price path crossover characteristic. To see how whipsaws affect a simple moving average crossover system, we'll need a model\nfor the system. The place to start is by defining a model of the simple moving average driven by a sinewave style of\ninput.
I won't list the formulas and derivation since they're somewhat complicated, but for those who are interested, the\nderivation is composed of several steps. First, a simple moving average (SMA) formula is generated by convolving†\na sinusoidal price path with a rectangular window. The trading model is built by taking the difference between the\nSMA output and the price path. A buy signal would occur when the SMA crosses below the price path and a sell\nsignal would occur when the SMA crosses above the price path. Buy when:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-449-453-whipsaws-linear-trends-and-simple-moving-averages-by-robert-wayman-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-449-453-whipsaws-linear-trends-and-simple-moving-averages-by-robert-wayman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-449-453-whipsaws-linear-trends-and-simple-moving-averages-by-robert-wayman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c10-putcall-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:10 (454-458): Put-Call Ratios by Lawrence G. McMillan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""DERIVATIVES Put-Call Ratios by Lawrence G. McMillan
This measure of market sentiment uses options trading volume to measure crowd psychology. Here's one use of the ratio.
The ratio of put option volume to call option volume is the major sentiment indicator for listed options. This ratio, called the put-call ratio, is usually computed daily and moving averages are kept. The resulting indicator is a contrary one: when a great many - too many - people are buying calls, for example, then there are a great many -perhaps too many - bulls, and the interpretation as a contrary indicator would be to sell the market. Conversely, when \""too many\"" people are buying puts, contrarians look to buy the market. Put-call ratios are applicable to various futures markets as well as the stock market, but first, let us look at the stock market.
DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT
With respect to the stock market, there are two distinctly different ratios, the put-call ratio of index options and the put-call ratio of equity options. On a typical day, there are normally at least as many index puts as index calls traded, especially if the Standard & Poor's 100 Index (OEX) options is being used as a guide. This is because many investors realize the protective worth of buying puts against their stock positions, and thus this hedging activity inflates the number of puts routinely traded in the OEX. A typical daily reading of the put-call ratio for index options would be around 1.00.
Equity options are another matter, however, since call volume is normally about twice as heavy as put volume in any individual stock's options. Hence, 0.50 is a typical reading for the daily put-call ratio for equity options."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-454-458-put-call-ratios-by-lawrence-g-mcmillan-20.gif"",""height"":""263"",""width"":""204""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-454-458-put-call-ratios-by-lawrence-g-mcmillan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-10-454-458-put-call-ratios-by-lawrence-g-mcmillan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c11-munibon-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:11 (463-469): Trading Munibond Funds with Munibond Futures by Dennis Meyers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Munibond Funds With Munibonds Futures by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Designing a trading system is simply establishing a set of rules and back-testing them in the market. And there are different approaches and different markets to\ntrade. Here's one example of developing a system to time entries into and exits out of municipal bond funds.
What are municipal bond funds? They are mutual funds that hold only municipal bonds in their portfolio. These\nfunds have gained some popularity in recent years because the interest from these fund types are exempt from federal taxes. Of these funds, no-load municipal bond funds provide the perfect trading vehicle for small investors who cannot buy municipal bonds directly. Here's a new indicator that uses municipal bond futures to forecast the direction of no-load municipal bond funds.
BUT FIRST, A LITTLE BACKGROUND
I began to look at no-load municipal bond funds in 1991 after I became unhappy with over-the-counter municipal bond dealers. Owning a munibond fund is very different from owning a munibond. Municipal bonds are difficult to trade in the over-the-counter market because of the large spreads and lack of a continuous market. Municipal bonds are usually bought and held until the bonds are called or reach maturity. Even though the market value of the bond moves up and down during your holding period, you can be assured of receiving the maturity value stated in the\nbond certificate at call or maturity (given if there is no default by the municipal issuer)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-463-469-trading-munibond-funds-with-munibond-futures-by-dennis-meyers-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-463-469-trading-munibond-funds-with-munibond-futures-by-dennis-meyers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-463-469-trading-munibond-funds-with-munibond-futures-by-dennis-meyers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c11-accumul-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:11 (470-472): The Accumulative Swing Index by Bruce R. Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Accumulative Swing Index by Bruce R. Faber
Here's an indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder that determines the true direction of the market by comparing today's trading range with yesterday's activity.
Each day a market has an opening, high, low and closing price. Most technicians focus on the change of the closing price for their indicators because that is the final tally for today's trading activity. But J. Welles Wilder\npostulated that the market trend could be better identified by comparing the relationships between each day's opening, high, low and closing price, and this trend then should be represented by a line that denotes an evaluation of the comparisons. The line would have to flow from day to day, similar to the closing price, but it would be a better representation of the market trend and it could lend itself to analysis by other methods.
Wilder referred to this line as the accumulation swing index . It is a comparison of each day's action within the day and with that of the previous day's. The original method was designed for futures markets, but the technique can be modified for stocks. Wilder also used notation counting the number of days from left to right. If today were Tuesday, for example, then Monday's close would be C1 and Tuesday's close would be C2."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-470-472-the-accumulative-swing-index-by-bruce-r-faber-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-470-472-the-accumulative-swing-index-by-bruce-r-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-470-472-the-accumulative-swing-index-by-bruce-r-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c11-support-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:11 (473-477): Support and Resistance with the Andrews Pitchfork by Barbara Star"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Support And Resistance With The Andrews Pitchfork by Barbara Star, Ph.D
Here's a charting technique that's available in most of today's popular software. If you're not familiar with it, here are some tips to using it. If you are familiar with it, it's time for a refresher.
Every technical analyst recognizes the importance of identifying support and resistance areas on price charts. Early in the history of technical analysis, Alan Andrews developed one such technique, which he called the median line method. The median line method calls for drawing a line from a high or low price level through the median price of a subsequent corrective rally or decline and once that is done, adding parallel lines above and below the median line from the corrective highs and lows. This results in three lines: a long center line (the median line), an upper channel line and a lower channel line. Each line defines potential support or resistance. Because of the shape it\nmakes on a price chart, the median line method soon became known as the Andrews pitchfork . The long center median line resembles a handle, while the two shorter parallel lines are the tines of the pitchfork. Most charting software today includes the Andrews pitchfork among their technical studies, but it's easy enough to\nconstruct manually on price charts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-473-477-support-and-resistance-with-the-andrews-pitchfork-by-barbara-star-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-473-477-support-and-resistance-with-the-andrews-pitchfork-by-barbara-star-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-473-477-support-and-resistance-with-the-andrews-pitchfork-by-barbara-star-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c11-tbonds-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:11 (478-485): Trading T-Bonds and Currencies by George Panagakis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading T-Bonds And Currencies by George Panagakis
Are you looking for a trading system that's elementary by design, yet effective for trading using entry and exit rules? Were you also thinking that it should be based on weekly charts? Well, you've found it. Take a look.
What is it you're looking for? Are you developing mechanical trading systems for the futures markets, or are you looking for a system to use as an aid when you make trading decisions? Or perhaps you believe that market movement is random and unpredictable and there is no system that can be applied consistently and successfully over a long period, and you're looking for other ways to trade. For those in the first two groups, I'm going to provide an example of how market movement can be predicted, based on the results of 15 years of back-testing one of my own trading systems for the bond and currency markets. As for those in the third group - well, read on.
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
From 1987 to 1991, when I was working in the futures industry, I spent most of my free time analyzing the last 20 years of market history trying to determine profitable trading strategies. After five years, I finally succeeded\nbecause I realized at long last that individual markets move in unique ways. I also recognized that you need a trading system if you want to trade in a profitable manner."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-478-485-trading-t-bonds-and-currencies-by-george-panagakis-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-478-485-trading-t-bonds-and-currencies-by-george-panagakis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-478-485-trading-t-bonds-and-currencies-by-george-panagakis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c11-managed-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:11 (486-489): Are Managed Futures the Future? by Victor Sperandeo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are Managed Futures The Future? by Victor Sperandeo
This well-known money manager believes that managed futures should be a part of your portfolio. Here's why.
Very little can drastically alter the economy and financial markets more than a change in monetary or fiscal policy; no better modern example of this can be found than in the activities of the early 1980s. At the time, government bonds were yielding 15%, and anyone holding a note or bond for a year or more had a real loss. Sentiment had virtually all the popular forecasters long-term bearish on bonds. What finally ended this 30-year downtrend on bonds?
A hint could be gleaned from a simple interview. On a Sunday, in mid-1982, James Baker was interviewed on the television show Face The Nation. He was asked how the Reagan administration's policy could finance large increases in defense spending and massive tax cuts without incurring inflation. He answered matter-of-factly, \""We can borrow it.\""
With such a prevailing attitude among policy makers, it was clear that investors, not traders, would be the main\nbeneficiaries of this policy shift. The Keynesian (fine-tuning) monetary policies, in effect since World War II, were the reasons for the inflationary cyclical movements in the economy. This inflationary bias escalated with the Vietnam War and accelerated with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil price increases, causing Fed policy to become abusive. The Fed lowered interest rates and purchased government debt in excessive quantities, a\nstrategy that climaxed in 1980. The Reagan policy substituted borrowed money for printing money, leading to disinflation. Expectations of higher prices, as witnessed in the 1970s, would dwindle. Following this reasoning, the Fed need not tighten credit or raise interest rates to the same degree as during the 1970s and would extend the duration of economic recoveries."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-486-489-are-managed-futures-the-future-by-victor-sperandeo-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-486-489-are-managed-futures-the-future-by-victor-sperandeo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-486-489-are-managed-futures-the-future-by-victor-sperandeo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c11-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:11 (490-495): Interview: Money Manager Laurence A. Connors by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Money Manager Laurence Connors by Thom Hartle
What makes a trader a winner? It's hard to say. Professional trader Laurence A. Connors, who is the co-author of \""Investment Secrets of a Hedge Fund Manager\"" and the president of money managers Connors, Bassett & Associates, thinks it's all a matter of finding a personal method that works for each individual. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle conducted the interview with Connors on August 18, 1995, via telephone, and asked him, among other topics, about trading news reversals, why he likes to use average directional movement (ADX), why he doesn't worry when he has a string of losses, the reason he doesn't like mechanical trading systems and why he doesn't use oscillators.
Q: So how did you get started in the business?
A: I was pretty young. For my eighth bithday, my grandfather gave me a baseball glove, two shares of Laclede Gas [LG] and a share of Exxon [XON]. That was how my interest in the stock market began. As a kid, I used to look in the newspaper every day to see the prices of my stocks, and that interest never left me.
Q: When did you take up a more active role in the stock market?
A: When I went to Syracuse University. I had a business on the side, and the money I made from the business I put to work trading the market. I did okay, but looking back, it was probably due to a bull market environment as opposed to me using real trading skills. After I graduated, I went to work as a stockbroker for Merrill Lynch in Boston. I worked as a broker for 12 years, the final three at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette (DLJ), which I considered my graduate school training. By 1993, I felt I had done everything I could and was ready to move on."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-490-495-interview-money-manager-laurence-a-connors-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-490-495-interview-money-manager-laurence-a-connors-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-490-495-interview-money-manager-laurence-a-connors-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c11-fear-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:11 (499-501): Fear of Success by Ari Kiev, MD"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fear Of Success by Ari Kiev, MD
This psychiatrist, who teaches strategies for successful trading, discusses the identification and management of the fear of success.
Success takes conscious commitment to a future result without any certainty or guarantee about the outcome. This requires a willingness to relinquish the certainty of past habits and beliefs and enter into the uncertainty of the unknown, guided only by a larger inner vision. Even when successful, few people are able to sustain repeated successes; few have ever won gold medals in successive Olympic Games competitions and fewer football teams ever have won back-to-back Super Bowl games, in part because of the reluctance to commit to the tasks involved in achieving such a goal.
The fear of change and the fear of the unknown often lead traders to blow up immediately after successful trading runs or avoid success altogether. These traders are not prepared to take responsibility for continuing to do what it takes to reproduce the successful results. Why is this?
Many traders have been socialized in terms of such contradictory values as \""doing their best,\"" \""looking good\"" and \""not losing.\"" Few, if any, have been reared to do what it takes to produce results in line with specific objectives. More fearful of looking like \""losers\"" than being motivated to succeed, they prefer to stay in the \""comfort zone\"" and play \""not to lose.\""
Further, some traders characteristically take a loss after winning. Attached to a grandiose sense of their own abilities, they may stubbornly hold on to a sell position long after it has turned around and should have been covered. Such traders are reluctant to face failure or declare their loss and start anew."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-499-501-fear-of-success-by-ari-kiev-md-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-499-501-fear-of-success-by-ari-kiev-md-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-11-499-501-fear-of-success-by-ari-kiev-md-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c12-compute-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:12 (505-509): Computer-Assisted Trading by Tushar S. Chande, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Computer-Assisted Trading by Tushar S. Chande, Ph.D.
You can't be a good trader without being a good analyst. But the two are not synonymous: Just because you're a good analyst doesn't guarantee you'll be a good trader. To the accomplished analyst, trading is a mental game 80% of the time, but one for which he or she is poorly prepared. Here's how you can hasten the transition from analyst to trader.
Trading is analysis in action. You have to convert all of your analysis into a simple, executable decision - buy so much of this, or sell some of that. Analysis is reactive, since you analyze price action after the event. Trading, on the other hand, is proactive, since you may have to anticipate market events. In any case, trading requires decision making in the face of uncertainty, with the added knowledge that some of the consequences may be unpleasant. This is not a simple task, because the fear of unpleasant consequences can trigger various degrees of the \""fight-or-flight\"" survival instinct, biasing traders' actions.
Besides, the market provides random gratification: The same actions can be profitable or not, with outcomes\noccurring randomly. This leads to unprofitable trading habits. For example, you may deviate from your system, only to be rewarded by the market. When this happens, it only reinforces your tendency to second-guess the model and deviate from it. Deviating from your model is not bad in itself, but it does negate all the historical testing you may have done. Since you cannot test your system deviations on historical data, in essence, you end up trading an untested system.
As a result, trading requires a whole new set of skills, different from those required to be a good analyst. Since there is no good way to practice these skills before one starts trading, many a venture into trading ends in disaster."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-505-509-computer-assisted-trading-by-tushar-s-chande-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-505-509-computer-assisted-trading-by-tushar-s-chande-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-505-509-computer-assisted-trading-by-tushar-s-chande-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c12-thecomm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:12 (510-512): The Commodity Channel Index Revisited by Jeanette Schwarz Young"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Commodity Channel Index Revisited by Jeanette Schwarz Young
Traders use technical tools in different ways at different times. Here, then, is one trader's idea on how to use this technical tool to identify major market trends.
Technical tools continue to gain importance in the market trading environment today. Unfortunately, there seems to be no single indicator that can be used to give consistently correct signals. While many technicians prefer the relative strength index and others prefer stochastics or the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), one of my favorites is the commodity channel index (CCI). I have found the CCI to be more reliable yet less well known than most of the tools available to traders today.
THE BASICS
The CCI was introduced by Donald Lambert in Commodities magazine in 1980. Lambert originally developed the\ntool to help the commodity trader spot cyclical turns in the commodity markets, but I have found that the CCI is a\ntechnical tool that can be used to identify the beginning and end of price trends, seasonal trends and cyclical trends.\nAlthough the CCI was developed for commodities trading, it works just as well for stocks, bonds and even indices.\nIn fact, you can use it on anything that trades and even things that don't, such as sentiment indicators. It comes down\nto this: If enough data is available for statistical study, the CCI can be used."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-510-512-the-commodity-channel-index-revisited-by-jeanette-schwarz-young-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-510-512-the-commodity-channel-index-revisited-by-jeanette-schwarz-young-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-510-512-the-commodity-channel-index-revisited-by-jeanette-schwarz-young-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c12-sidecci-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:12 (511): SIDEBAR: Calculating an 11-period CCI"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CALCULATING AN 11-PERIOD CCI
The commodity channel index (CCI) can be calculated using any lookback period chosen by the trader. The Excel spreadsheet shown in sidebar Figure 1 is an 11-period CCI for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The first step is to calculate the daily typical price. This is the high, low and close added together and divided by three. This step is performed in column E. The formula for cell E2 is:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-511-sidebar-calculating-an-11-period-cci-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-511-sidebar-calculating-an-11-period-cci-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-511-sidebar-calculating-an-11-period-cci-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c12-onrange-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:12 (513-515): On Range Trading by Joe Luisi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On Range Trading by Joe Luisi
Markets move from trading ranges to trends and back into trading ranges. Presented here are methods to identify the trading opportunities based on identifying trading ranges.
Each time you look at a chart, you probably see trading opportunities because the practiced eye easily takes notes of the trading ranges and the trends between them. But it's not always easy to tell when a breakout from a trading range is simply a temporary move or the first step in a trend. Understanding how to examine a market range can help traders better analyze and trade the markets they follow. A market's range can vary from intraday, daily, weekly to monthly, depending on the time frame. A low or narrow range occurs when the market is slow - impending holidays, for example, or when traders are undecided as to the next direction, so little activity takes place. When a market leaves a trading range, however, activity increases as traders move into the market, propelling the market into\na trend.
A low range can symbolize a market equilibrium. Buyers and sellers are trading in between defined support, the price level that is the current low and resistance that is the recent high. As the range tightens, stops, which are held by floor brokers as resting orders that are activated if trading hits a certain price, accumulate above and below the trading range."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-513-515-on-range-trading-by-joe-luisi-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-513-515-on-range-trading-by-joe-luisi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-513-515-on-range-trading-by-joe-luisi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c12-neuraln-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:12 (516-521): Neural Net Input Optimization by Kyle M. Druey"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Neural Net Input Optimization by Kyle M. Druey
Here's an article based on the author's own research of neural networks and personal experience developing neural net trading models. These findings are more from the practical/user-oriented framework rather than from a scientific research standpoint.
The popularity of neural networks for financial market forecasting has increased significantly in recent years. The apparent ease in developing neural networks and their potential for accurate forecasts has served as an incentive for many to analyze this technology. But there's usually more than meets the eye: Most novice neural net developers are probably unaware of the time and energy required to produce effective neural net models. Neural network development requires extensive experimentation, but the results can be well worth the effort.
Many factors should be considered when a neural network is being developed. Those include, but should not be limited to, such factors as the rate of learning, types of transfer functions and the number of hidden nodes. However, many neural net developers have discovered that the most important elements of a successful neural network are data preprocessing and input optimization.
This analysis examines different methods to optimize the number of inputs for inclusion in a neural network\nforecasting model. It also presents a logical alternative to indiscriminately throwing numerous inputs into the neural net to await a random result. Optimization focuses on identifying the minimum number of inputs needed to produce the lowest test set error.
Identifying appropriate inputs is not addressed in the analysis, but it is equally important. Four neural network input optimization methods are analyzed: correlation coefficient analysis, input connection weight analysis, sensitivity analysis and systematic testing. The effects of multicolinearity on neural networks and methods to eliminate it are addressed in the analysis. A new optimization method based on the T-statistic is also presented."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-516-521-neural-net-input-optimization-by-kyle-m-druey-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-516-521-neural-net-input-optimization-by-kyle-m-druey-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-516-521-neural-net-input-optimization-by-kyle-m-druey-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c12-theneur-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:12 (522-525): The Neural Network Financial Wizards by Steve Ward and Marge Sherald"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Neural Network Financial Wizards by Steve Ward and Marge Sherald
What techniques do some of today's money managers using neural nets use? Here's a glimpse.
In these days of more and more ways of applying neural networks, financial experts using neural nets to predict the market are no longer as isolated as they used to be. Some of them, in fact, are quite ingenious at using the technology - professionals such as Dean Barr and Ganesh Mani of LBS Capital Management, Pierre Leroy of Deere and Co., Troy Buckner of Hyman Beck and Co. and Phil Erlanger of Phil Erlanger Research, to name only a few. Here's a profile of these neural net financial professionals. Note that none of these secrets may be attributed to any single individual; nor does any single individual use them all.
THE WHEAT FROM THE CHAFF
If you're going to operate in the domain of neural net wizards, it helps to know which are the real wizards. You can distinguish them by the fact that real wizards make their money with their own wizardry. (This includes wizards who make money for their clients.) The \""wannabe\"" wizards talk about making money with their wizardry.
It's hard to tell off-hand the real wizards from the wannabes. Real wizards and wannabe wizards wear the same clothes. They look the same, they act the same, they talk the same, but they have markedly different financial statements."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-522-525-the-neural-network-financial-wizards-by-steve-ward-and-marge-sherald-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-522-525-the-neural-network-financial-wizards-by-steve-ward-and-marge-sherald-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-522-525-the-neural-network-financial-wizards-by-steve-ward-and-marge-sherald-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c12-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:12 (526-529): Trading Decisively by Bruce C. Kramer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Decisively by Bruce C. Kramer
What do you think are the most important mental skills for trading profitably? Compare your response with what a professional trader believes.
I became interested in and began to read the literature pertaining to the psychological aspects of traders some years ago. In my consulting practice, I am asked as many questions about the psychological aspects of trading - for example, how to control emotions and how to confidently make buy and sell decisions - as I am on technical systems and indicators. After a while, I thought it would be worthwhile to examine this arena from my standpoint as a professional trader, relating actual trading experience to a psychological framework for decision making. This approach is the reverse of much related published work.
In Theodore Isaac Rubin's Overcoming Indecisiveness , the author defines eight stages for effective decision\nmaking and lists 20 secrets for decision success. Rubin's work is set in the context of making decisions in a business environment, but most of the 20 secrets are equally applicable to trading decisions. After all, trading is the greatest business of all.
Let me briefly review Rubin's ideas that apply to the markets. For our purposes, we will assume that a trading system or at least a quantifiable, systematic approach to trading is being used. We will define system statistics as the parameters of the signals generated, as in percent of profitable trades, average size of gains, average size of losses, average holding period and so forth."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-526-529-trading-decisively-by-bruce-c-kramer-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-526-529-trading-decisively-by-bruce-c-kramer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-526-529-trading-decisively-by-bruce-c-kramer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c12-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:12 (530-537): Four Decades with Joe Ross by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Four Decades With Joe Ross by Thom Hartle
Planning ahead, being mentally tough, being physically fit and knowing why you're doing what you do is very important. Don't just throw yourself at the market. You go in when it's the right time to go in. You look for an opportunity and even if you're wrong in your timing by a little, you don't give up. You go back and try it again. -- Joe Ross
There's nothing like a little perspective to give insight - especially when that perspective comes in the form of\ntrading for nearly four decades. Trader Joe Ross is one of a rare breed of trader, one who has seen the world\nchange in front of him and been able to adapt to its changes. Further, Ross had a mentor to teach him the ropes of trading long before that word came in vogue. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Joe Ross via a telephone interview on September 20, 1995, and spoke to him on a variety of topics, among them how to get mentally prepared to make larger trades, why discipline is important, why seasonality is important, how he started day trading, how fundamental analysis works into all this and the true way to make money trading - by not going for the big score, just taking from the markets on a day-to-day basis.
Q: Tell me how you got started as a trader.
A: I started trading more than 38 years ago. When I left the service, I went to work for my greatuncle, who was a commodities trader, and I worked with him for a little over a year. He taught me the basics of the business.
Q: What were some of the key things that he taught you?
A: He taught me what the business of trading is really all about. He prepared me mentally for trading by forcing me to develop the needed discipline. He taught me how to operate as a businessman. He wasn’t too worried about technique as much as making sure I prepared mentally for the inevitable things that would happen, for losses that would occur, for getting beat up in the market. His lessons were the things that got me\nthrough the early days."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-530-537-four-decades-with-joe-ross-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-530-537-four-decades-with-joe-ross-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-12-530-537-four-decades-with-joe-ross-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c02-amutual-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:2 (57-61): A Mutual Fund Switch System by Nelson Freeburg"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Mutual Fund Switch System by Nelson Freeburg
Testing indicators to confirm viability is always important, and here, two indicators that stand up to historical testing are presented and then used to develop a simple mutual fund switch system.
Many successful stock market analysts and money managers rely on quantitative market models - systematic timing methods that incorporate a variety of technical, monetary, valuation and sentiment data. Analysts such as Norman Fosback and John Hussman employ multiple regression to blend their indicators while other analysts such as Gerald Appel, Ned Davis and Martin Zweig typically use less formal techniques to achieve splendid investment returns.
However the logic works, all such models face one irreducible minimum requirement. Before the model is built, the analyst must determine which indicators work and which do not. Unfortunately, many popular investment methods turn out to have little actual forecasting value when tested over long periods of market history.
Here are two indicators that do stand up to historical testing. After examining their derivation and past performance, we will use these indicators to develop a simple mutual fund switch system. In testing, this hypothetical timing model outpaced the Standard & Poor's 500 index by a wide margin since 1957 to the present while exhibiting far less statistical risk. Though this model is effective, our main focus is on the two component indicators themselves and not any particular application. Consider this study as one step in the long process of isolating which of the hundreds of available stock market indicators actually have forecasting significance, and of those that do, how the indicators are best employed."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-57-61-a-mutual-fund-switch-system-by-nelson-freeburg-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-57-61-a-mutual-fund-switch-system-by-nelson-freeburg-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-57-61-a-mutual-fund-switch-system-by-nelson-freeburg-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c02-bullish-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:2 (62--67): Bullish/Bearish Percentages and the DJIA by Christopher Cadbury"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Bullish/Bearish Percentages and the DJIA by Christopher C. Cadbury
Curious about how state of mind plays a role in trading? This author has studied investment surveys that detail bullish and bearish states of mind of advisors and investors and he has identified patterns that indicate trading opportunities for stocks and stock indices.
Bullish and bearish percentages of investment sentiment surveys are widely used to predict the direction of the stock market. The readings for a given week are considered to be contrary indicators. A high weekly percentage of bulls or low weekly percentage of bears is regarded as bearish, while a low percentage of bulls or high level of bears is considered to be bullish.
Four organizations have been conducting weekly investment sentiment surveys for the last seven years or longer: Investor's Intelligence, which began weekly service in 1969, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), which started service in 1987, Market Vane, which began in 1982, and Consensus, which started service in 1983. I have examined the levels of bullish and bearish percentages before various percentage moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and before moves of specific numbers of DJIA points. The bullish and bearish levels that are most discriminating and predictive are those that lead to rallies and declines of 150 points or more. What are the levels for each service?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-62-67-bullish-bearish-percentages-and-the-djia-by-christopher-cadbury-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-62-67-bullish-bearish-percentages-and-the-djia-by-christopher-cadbury-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-62-67-bullish-bearish-percentages-and-the-djia-by-christopher-cadbury-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c02-areyour-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:2 (68-71): Are Your Inputs Correlated? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are Your Inputs Correlated? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
If you use neural nets to model the behavior of equity markets in an effort to develop a trading strategy, it's likely that your model has multiple inputs. You may very well find that two or more of your inputs are cross-correlated.
Basic modeling theory suggests that you should avoid inputs that contain significant cross-correlations. If two of the inputs to your model were perfectly correlated, then removing one of them should have no impact on your model's efficiency. On the other hand, if the correlation is not perfect and removing one of these inputs decreases the model's efficiency, then it is possible that your model responds favorably when the two inputs agree or when they do not. If this is the case, you may want to consider combining the two inputs into one that summarizes the interrelationships of the two inputs and maximizes one of these relationships. If you have inputs that are cross-correlated and if removing one of these inputs decreases the efficiency and predictiveness of your model, you may want to consider one of these methods."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-68-71-are-your-inputs-correlated-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-68-71-are-your-inputs-correlated-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-68-71-are-your-inputs-correlated-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c02-sidemea-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:2 (72): SIDEBAR: Calculating the mean, standard deviation and cumulative"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Calculating the mean, standard deviation and cumulative probability density functions.
Calculating the mean of a series of numbers is the same as calculating the average of a series of numbers. First, sum the numbers together and divide by the total amount of numbers (n)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-72-sidebar-calculating-the-mean-standard-deviation-and-cumulative-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-72-sidebar-calculating-the-mean-standard-deviation-and-cumulative-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-72-sidebar-calculating-the-mean-standard-deviation-and-cumulative-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c02-leverag-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:2 (73-80): Leverage and Equities by J.M. Malley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Leverage and Equities by J.M. Malley
Here's how to find the appropriate leverage for stock trading and researching leverage with a simulated portfolio.
Deep discount brokerages are competing actively for customers, reducing commissions drastically and cutting margin rates. Obviously, the direct savings are valuable to active traders. Less obviously, the reduced fees could alter a trader's use of leverage. In this article I'm going to develop a technique for analyzing the use of leverage in common stock trading. I'm also going to demonstrate that reduced trading costs could make leverage attractive and profitable for the small trader. And finally, I'm going to show you how to use your own track record to make your own decision."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-73-80-leverage-and-equities-by-j-m-malley-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-73-80-leverage-and-equities-by-j-m-malley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-73-80-leverage-and-equities-by-j-m-malley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c02-sidelev-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:2 (80): SIDEBAR: Calculating leverage and simulated trading"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Calculating leverage and simulated trading
The following explanation uses a Microsoft Excel 4.0 spreadsheet calculating final equity versus leverage and simulated trading. Referring to Figure 1 from the article, the values placed in the spreadsheet for columns A to H are identified by the titles at the tops of the columns."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-80-sidebar-calculating-leverage-and-simulated-trading-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-80-sidebar-calculating-leverage-and-simulated-trading-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-80-sidebar-calculating-leverage-and-simulated-trading-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c02-centerd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:2 (82-84): Centered Trading by Ari Kiev, MD"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Centered Trading by Ari Kiev, MD
Successful trading requires the willingness to commit to specific objectives. Here, psychiatrist Ari Kiev explains how to center your state of mind to optimize your trading.
Successful trading requires the willingness to commit to specific objectives, the skill to manage emotion and fear and the discipline to adhere to your trading strategy. The successful trader can juggle these complex tasks by making use of psychological skills to reduce anxiety and tension and decrease the impact of distracting internal and external stimuli. One of the most critical skills for traders is centering , whereby the trader learns to distance himself from the sequence of emotional responses and negative interpretations of stressful and unsuccessful trades that trigger panic, denial, rationalization and avoidance, all of which perpetuate the circle of failure."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-82-84-centered-trading-by-ari-kiev-md-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-82-84-centered-trading-by-ari-kiev-md-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-82-84-centered-trading-by-ari-kiev-md-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c02-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:2 (85-90): Mary Pugh of Pugh Capital Management by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Mary Pugh of Pugh Capital Management by Thom Hartle
The year 1994 will be known for the debacle in the derivatives markets. But what are these instruments that seem to have left a number of money managers holding the proverbial bag? To answer this question and others, we spoke to Mary Pugh, former senior vice president of Washington Mutual Savings Bank and now a fixed-income money manager in Seattle, WA. We spoke to Pugh about the mortgage-backed securities market, how it works, what the instruments derived from mortgages are all about and more.
Q: Mary, let's start with your background.
A: Sure. I graduated from Yale University in 1981 with a bachelor's in economics. Then I joined Washington Mutual as an investment analyst. In 1989, I was named senior vice president of the portfolio management division. My responsibilities included overseeing the bank's investment functions, Treasury functions and secondary marketing. I brought Washington Mutual's first collateralized mortgage obligation, which is referred to as a CMO, to market. I also chaired the deposit and loan pricing committee and oversaw financial forecasting and investment operations.\nOne of my key responsibilities was to manage the bank's interest rate risk. We used derivative products such as interest rate swaps, caps and financial futures. Then in 1991, I started my own money management firm for institutional clients, and we currently have $75 million under management.
Q: I'll go out on a limb and say you're qualified to comment on the mortgage market!
A: Thank you!
Q: First of all, most people know that a mortgage is what they take out to buy their home. Describe the stages that this loan goes through to end up as a mortgage-backed derivative.
A: A typical personal home loan is the easiest place to start. When an individual takes out a loan to purchase a home, he or she agrees to repay the loan on a monthly basis based on a specific interest rate. There's a typical amortization period; the most common is the 30-year fixed rate."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-85-90-mary-pugh-of-pugh-capital-management-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-85-90-mary-pugh-of-pugh-capital-management-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-85-90-mary-pugh-of-pugh-capital-management-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c02-statist-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:2 (91-94): Statistically Positioned Trend Channels by Bob McCullough"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Statistically Positioned Trend Channels by Bob McCullough
Trend channels are a method by which to identify the outer boundaries of a trend. A number of methods are based on the technician's judgment to identify the components of a trend channel. Here's one method that reduces the need for seasoned judgment by using two statistical methods to determine the components of a trend channel.
Trendlines are among the oldest and most useful tools in technical analysis. However, drawing them can sometimes be a very subjective process, and frequently, they simply don't work when an analyst is trying to find price support and resistance levels. Statistically positioned trend channels can serve the same need as trendlines. Frequently, these channels are more powerful in helping an analyst locate support and resistance levels. They are also useful in helping a market technician anticipate significant trend changes.
STATISTICAL POSITIONING
Figure 1, a recent daily bar chart of LSI Logic [LSI], one of the hottest stocks of 1994, illustrates how a statistically positioned trend channel is drawn. Although LSI has been a strong performer, it has had some pullbacks. Considering this, it would have been useful to anticipate when these pullbacks were about to begin and when they had run their course. This could have been accomplished using trend channels."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-91-94-statistically-positioned-trend-channels-by-bob-mccullough-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-91-94-statistically-positioned-trend-channels-by-bob-mccullough-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-2-91-94-statistically-positioned-trend-channels-by-bob-mccullough-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-eurodlr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (102-106): Trading the Eurodollar by George Panagakis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading the Eurodollar by George Panagakis
Trading methods don't have to be complex; indeed, they can be very simple. Here's one that will help you trade Eurodollars.
When I was working in the futures industry, I spent most of my free time analyzing the previous 20 years of all the futures markets moves. I became intrigued with the idea of finding market indicators that would allow me to make a living from speculating in the futures markets. After a great deal of study, I succeeded. Some of you are trying to develop your own market indicators, so I will share some mistakes I made in the hope that you will not repeat them. In addition, I will also share with you one of the indicators that I use in the Eurodollar market.
THE ERRORS
My first mistake: I forgot the four most important letters in any business, KISS (keep it simple, stupid). At first, I\nthought I had to have a complicated mathematical formula to successfully trade in the futures markets, but I quickly realized that all I had to do was develop indicators that would follow the market as it moved up or down. I analyzed every substantial move in every futures market and asked myself what usually happened when the market started to change direction and whether I could count on the market to move the same way in the future."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-102-106-trading-the-eurodollar-by-george-panagakis-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-102-106-trading-the-eurodollar-by-george-panagakis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-102-106-trading-the-eurodollar-by-george-panagakis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-thecup-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (107-111): The Cup-with-Handle Pattern by Gregory Kuhn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Cup-with-Handle Pattern by Gregory Kuhn
Most technically based traders become familiar with the classic chart patterns because those patterns give the trader visual evidence of the demand/supply balance of a stock. Interpreting the chart accurately can give you an early warning about your next trading opportunity. Here, the cup-with-handle pattern, a relatively new chart formation, is examined.
When it comes to charting stock prices, while many chart patterns are best left to a coin toss, some patterns can reveal a great deal about a stock's future price movement. The cup-with-handle formation is one such pattern that indicates a great deal about stock movement. The name coined by William O'Neil, founder of Investor's Business Daily and developer of the CANSLIM trading methodology, the cup-with-handle pattern takes its name from the resemblance the chart pattern bears to the profile of a coffee cup. The cup of the pattern typically forms during intermediate-term market corrections and is usually three to six months in duration but can be as long as 12 months during bear markets or as short as seven weeks during bull markets. The left side of the cup is a downtrend correcting the previous uptrend. The stock price bottoms and begins to advance, forming the right side of the cup."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-107-111-the-cup-with-handle-pattern-by-gregory-kuhn-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-107-111-the-cup-with-handle-pattern-by-gregory-kuhn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-107-111-the-cup-with-handle-pattern-by-gregory-kuhn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-thetrdr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (112-116): The Trader and the Internet by Suzanne Withers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Trader and the Internet by Suzanne Withers, Ph.D.
By now, much has been written about the Internet, the international computer users' network. But details have not been as forthcoming. How can Internet help traders and investors?
The profitable use of Internet, the worldwide information system, is just being recognized. A veritable electronic\nvolcano is hiding beneath the surface of information distribution as most traders know it, and it is erupting. The global network of intercomputer communication has been around for a while. Until now, however, it has been the domain of the government, the military and academia, all intensely exchanging arcane data, hypotheses and hyperbole. Only very recently has the commercial potential of the Internet been recognized and begun to be exploited. If nothing else, consider Internet in potential marketing terms. The current worldwide Internet user population is approximately equal to that of the United States. These 250 million-plus potential users tend to be college-educated, many with graduate degrees, and are computer literate, with average earnings far in excess of the national average.
Internet allows immediate worldwide data dissemination, thereby allowing new ways to contract, cooperate and provide - the very ingredients necessary to create and sustain markets for goods and services.\nComputer-oriented business has taken up the gauntlet in using the computer network. Silicon Valley has organized and set up CommerceNet, a consortium of 40 businesses, including the likes of Intel and Hewlett-Packard, to create and exploit the Internet's commercial potential. Together, the businesses are attempting to make efficient data and information communications a reality. The federal government has donated $6 million in matching funds to explore the uses of the Internet commercially, and state and local government together have contributed a similar amount."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-112-116-the-trader-and-the-internet-by-suzanne-withers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-112-116-the-trader-and-the-internet-by-suzanne-withers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-112-116-the-trader-and-the-internet-by-suzanne-withers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-overcom-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (117-119): Overcoming Resistance by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Overcoming Resistance by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Sooner or later, many traders encounter problems limiting their success. Often, the solutions are available but people resist changing. Why do they do that, anyway? Toghraie explains how to overcome resistance.
Carl was consistently missing lucrative trades because he was afraid of taking losses. This fear grew out of the\nlearning process he went through to become a trader. When Carl first started trading, he didn't realize how\nimportant money management is. The result was a 50% drawdown the first year and a fear of trusting himself even when he put money management rules into effect. He suffered additional discomfort from the transition to full-time trader. This transition meant that his family had to live on half the income that they were used to, and the family's savings account became his trading capital. As a result, Carl's home environment became tense because his new direction was threatening the family's financial security. Carl was losing rapidly. He decided to consult with me over the phone. During the consultation, I suggested to Carl various ways that other traders with the same problem had successfully overcome their fear. Each time I proposed a possible approach to his problem, however, Carl gave me what appeared to be compelling reasons why my suggestions would not work for him. Finally, I asked Carl to set aside time to work with me to help him through this critical period. When Carl said he would \""think about it,\"" I knew that I would probably never hear from him again."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-117-119-overcoming-resistance-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-117-119-overcoming-resistance-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-117-119-overcoming-resistance-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-sideste-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (120): SIDEBAR: Steps to overcoming resistance"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Steps to overcoming resistance
Self-help questions on your resistance to change."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-120-sidebar-steps-to-overcoming-resistance-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-120-sidebar-steps-to-overcoming-resistance-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-120-sidebar-steps-to-overcoming-resistance-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (122-126): Interview: John Sosnowy of SIMCO by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: John Sosnowy of SIMCO by Thom Hartle
There seems to be a connection between engineering and investing. Like Jack Hutson, the publisher of Stocks & Commodities, John Sosnowy of the Sosnowy Investment Management Co. (SIMCO), Cameron, TX, was an engineer before he turned to the world of finance. He changed careers in 1969, leaving the engineering field to work as a stockbroker for a major brokerage firm before starting up his own investment advisory concern in 1984. We interviewed John Sosnowy, covering the concept of tactical asset allocation, how to design a market model and what indicators to use, the funds he particularly likes, determining the amount of risk an investor is most comfortable with and the secret to making a profit in the market.
Q: How did your career as a money manager begin?
A: Well, I didn't start out in money management. After I finished graduate school, I went to work for Union Carbide as an engineer. I was interested in investing my own money, so I joined an investment club. When you join a club made up of a bunch of engineers, you can imagine the different things we looked at to try to build a better mousetrap! That was my first exposure to investing.
Q: Did you stay in engineering very long?
A: No. After a few years as an engineer, I became more and more interested in the markets and investing.\nSimultaneously, I reached a point as an engineer that to advance within the company, I would have had to relocate to New York City.
Q: But that didn't appeal to you?
A: No, I wasn't very excited about the prospect! So I started looking for an alternative. About that time, I realized how much I was interested in investing, so it was then that I decided to change careers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-122-126-interview-john-sosnowy-of-simco-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-122-126-interview-john-sosnowy-of-simco-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-122-126-interview-john-sosnowy-of-simco-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-atrade-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (127-131): A Trade in Foreign Currencies by D.W. Davies"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Trade in Foreign Currencies by D.W. Davies
Here's a recent trade in foreign currencies what was used, the reasoning behind it and the outcome. Take a look.
Without a universal truth to define the beginning and end of trends, most successful traders choose to trade using a system. For me, that meant combining a moving average percentage channel (MAPC) and a dual commodity channel index (DCCI). While this combination has worked well for me, I have had my doubts on occasion; in deteriorating trends the outer channels may not be reached before reversal occurs, while at other times, outer channels are torn asunder in blow-off moves. The DCCI often has a series of price divergences before reversals occur, while at other times we get a DCCI overbought/oversold reversal without divergence. As a consequence, I am always investigating new systems or aids to confirm my system.
In this spirit, I recently bought Thomas DeMark's The New Science of Technical Analysis and within days of\nreceiving it, I was able to put it to good use. Among other concepts, he describes in the book his Sequential system, a fairly simple method suitable for intermediate-term traders using daily data. While it is not for the active trader who trades constantly, it is suitable for position traders who want in as close as possible to the top or bottom of a trend reversal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-127-131-a-trade-in-foreign-currencies-by-d-w-davies-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-127-131-a-trade-in-foreign-currencies-by-d-w-davies-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-127-131-a-trade-in-foreign-currencies-by-d-w-davies-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-trendln-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (132-134): Trendlines by Bruce R. Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trendlines by Bruce R. Faber
How do you use trendlines? It's one of the most basic tools of investment analysis, yet it's not explained as clearly as it might. If you're just starting out, here's the scoop. Or if you're an old pro, here's a refresher.
The trend is your friend.\"" It's one of the oldest investment adages, not to mention one of the truest. Determining what the trend is and, even more important, when it has changed is the most basic of all determinations in investment strategy. Trendlines are one of the simplest ways to discover what the trend is doing. Many successful traders use the trendline as a favored tool when it comes to the technical considerations of when to buy or sell.
The trendline's popularity may stem from its deceptive simplicity. A trendline is nothing more than a straight line, and to draw a straight line, there must be at least two points. In drawing a trendline, the first of these two points is either the highest high or lowest low, while the second point, respectively, is the lowest high prior to the lowest low, or the highest low prior to the highest high. It is imperative that the trendline does not pass through any other price lines between these two points."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-132-134-trendlines-by-bruce-r-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-132-134-trendlines-by-bruce-r-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-132-134-trendlines-by-bruce-r-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-xdtrade-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (135-137): The X'd Trade by Joe DiNapoli"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The X'd Trade by Joe DiNapoli
What you see is not necessarily what you get. What you see for prices on your computer screen may not be what's really going on in the commodity pits. Some prices that appear on your screen may even be canceled. How's that? Here's how.
Friday profits are always sweeter, a trader muses happily as he cruises down the highway after a day of trading. He smiles that self-satisfied \""great trade\"" smile. Life is good, and well he should think so, because he actually caught the market one tick above the low of the move. His smile grows wider as he thinks about it. But there's a problem that he doesn't know about. The trade, the one he's so proud of, never took place. He finds out only later that he's actually short six Standard & Poor's futures contracts and he didn't know about it. In fact, he won't know about it for 24 hours afterward. He can't close the position for three more days, and by the way, the market closed sharply higher.
That happy smile of his on Friday afternoon is going to be a fond memory by the time he realizes he's in deep\nwater. He may be doomed. Can this happen to you? You bet. Will this happen to you? Remember: \""If you're in the market long enough, everything will happen to you.\"" That includes this unfortunate scenario."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-135-137-the-x-d-trade-by-joe-dinapoli-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-135-137-the-x-d-trade-by-joe-dinapoli-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-135-137-the-x-d-trade-by-joe-dinapoli-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c03-amarket-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:3 (99-101): A Market Bottom Pattern for S&P Futures by Tushar S. Chande"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Market Bottom Pattern for S&P Futures by Tushar S. Chande
The S&P futures market is dominated by anti-trend traders. It's a fact: It's a tough market to trade using trend-following approaches. But if you can't beat 'em, why not join 'em?
The trading action in the Standard & Poor's 500 futures pit can be fast and furious. It is an unusual market when one considers the daily high-low range. For example, though a $1,500 move in the Treasury bond contract commands headlines, a similar move in the S&P is simply ignored. This turbocharged market comes with a million-horsepower engine, can turn on a dime and hit your stop in a hurry. Since it rarely follows through in one direction for many days, most trend-following approaches don't test well on past S&P data. S&P traders seem to thrive on anticipating reversals. Some profitable bottom-fishing may be possible in this market, and I'll show you how. Be forewarned, however, that my calculations are hypothetical, and bottom-fishing could push your account under water.
AN ANTI-TREND TEST
Let me begin by illustrating the anti-trend nature of this market. Consider the relative strength index (RSI)\noscillator. RSI measures market momentum on a fixed scale. It oscillates between zero and 100. A simple nine-day RSI system buys long when the RSI falls below 30 and then rises above it. The system sells short when the nine-day RSI rises above 70 and then falls below it. I used this built-in system in SuperCharts to test the S&P 500 continuous contract from April 21, 1982, to November 4, 1994. I used $3,000 for an initial stop and allowed $100 for slippage and commissions per trade. The total paper profit was approximately $50,200 including the current open profit, with 46 profitable trades out of 135, which is 34%. The largest losing trade was $28,225, in the days following the October 1987 crash."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-99-101-a-market-bottom-pattern-for-s-p-futures-by-tushar-s-chande-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-99-101-a-market-bottom-pattern-for-s-p-futures-by-tushar-s-chande-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-3-99-101-a-market-bottom-pattern-for-s-p-futures-by-tushar-s-chande-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-measure-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (141-145): Measuring Linkage by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Measuring Linkage by Thom Hartle
Seasoned traders know that relationships exist between markets. In theory, if fundamentals move one market in one direction, then another market may also move in the same direction or show a propensity to move in the opposite direction. These intermarket relationships are often referred to as linked markets. Can traders use this information? Indeed they can. Here are some ways.
Think about it. How many times have you glanced at the financial news headlines and read that the price action in one market was due to the movement in another? Probably fairly often. We've all seen headlines such as \""Continued weakness in dollar worries bond traders,\"" with the accompanying article supporting this explanation for a weak bond market, or a headline such as \""Bond market rally boosts stock traders' confidence\"" explaining an up day in the stock market. Are such rationalizations justified? Is the explanation on target? Most of all, do these relationships between markets really exist? Well, the answer (to all) must be qualified with both a yes and a no. To clarify, first let's look\nat some examples."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-141-145-measuring-linkage-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-141-145-measuring-linkage-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-141-145-measuring-linkage-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-sidecor-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (141-145): Sidebar: Correlation Coefficient."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Correlation Coefficient by Thom Hartle
The correlation coefficient, denoted as r , is an index that measures the degree and direction of a linear association between two variables. The values of the correlation coefficient can range from 1 to -1. If you were to measure the correlation of two variables such as the weekly closing price of a stock compared with the weekly closing price of the Standard & Poor's 500 over a specific period, the correlation coefficient will indicate the direction and degree of the relationship between the two."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-141-145-sidebar-correlation-coefficient-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-141-145-sidebar-correlation-coefficient-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-141-145-sidebar-correlation-coefficient-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-whatis-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (146-148): What is the Impact of the S&P 500? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""What is the Impact of the S&P 500? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
What impact does the variability of the market have on the price behavior of an individual stock? Technicians\noften use the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index as a model for the market when calculating beta and alpha. We can use the S&P 500 as a model for the market and attempt to factor out its effect on a stock with a high book-to-price ratio (Ahmanson, or AHM) and a stock with a low book-to-price ratio (Coca-Cola, or KO). They would be considered examples of a value stock and a growth stock, respectively."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-146-148-what-is-the-impact-of-the-s-p-500-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-146-148-what-is-the-impact-of-the-s-p-500-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-146-148-what-is-the-impact-of-the-s-p-500-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-range-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (149-152): Range Breakout Trading in Treasury Bonds by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Range Breakout Trading in Treasury Bonds by Alex Saitta
Markets are either trending or in a trading range marking time until the next trend. It follows, then, that a potential trading concept is to identify the trading range and wait for the new trend to start. Here's one method for identifying a trading range and the results of trading the breakout.
As technicians, we've all been told numerous times to go with the breakout. But how many of us ever really think about the logic behind range breakouts and why breakouts are usually followed by prolonged trends? Familiarity with this logic is critical when the validity of this concept is being tested and a range breakout trading strategy is being developed.
Think about what's occurring inside a tight and narrow trading range; in it, bulls and bears of equal number and strength slug it out for control of the market. As time passes, intensity builds as more bulls and bears enter the market, placing their bets. Suddenly, there is a drastic change of psychology and the market begins to move in one decisive direction. At that moment, the players on the wrong side of the trend run for the exit. The other traders, realizing they are on the right side of the trend, begin to add to their winning positions. With that, the market begins a prolonged trend.
Given that example, here's the next question a bond technician might ask: Has that logic been confirmed in the bond market? When Treasury bond futures have been in a tight, narrow and lengthy price range and a drastic change of psychology causes the market to begin to move one way, does a prolonged and profitable trend usually follow?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-149-152-range-breakout-trading-in-treasury-bonds-by-alex-saitta-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-149-152-range-breakout-trading-in-treasury-bonds-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-149-152-range-breakout-trading-in-treasury-bonds-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-sidepar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (152-158): Sidebar: The Parabolic Trading System"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: The Parabolic Trading System by Dennis Meyers
The parabolic time/price system was introduced by J. Welles Wilder in New Concepts in Technical Trading\nSystems. The trading concept itself is an automatic reversal system, in which the system always has a position that is either long the market or short the market. For example, the first entry for a long position occurs when the recent extreme high is violated, at which point the trailing stop and reverse (SAR) order is placed at the recent extreme low price. Each day, the SAR order will advance higher in price, slow at first and then more each day. If you were to chart the SAR order price level, it would resemble a parabola. If the sell SAR order were to be executed, then the buy SAR would be placed at the most recent extreme high, and each day the buy SAR is lowered, again slow at first but increasingly lower each day until the market moves above the buy SAR. Then the system is back long, with the new SAR trailing from the most recent extreme low price."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-152-158-sidebar-the-parabolic-trading-system-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-152-158-sidebar-the-parabolic-trading-system-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-152-158-sidebar-the-parabolic-trading-system-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (158-167): Trading, Profitability and Leverage by J.M. Malley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading, Profitability and Leverage by J.M. Malley
Leverage is a key factor in trading, but few traders understand its importance. Here, Malley concludes his work on the subject.
Modern financial theory proceeds by developing an explicit model and deriving a probability distribution of the outcomes. By contrast, commodity traders have had to content themselves with the odd gambling metaphor instead of a rational use of probability in money management. However, questions concerning the outcome of the very next trade, such as what my probability of winning the next trade is, are not meaningful. But we can ask questions about the probability of the outcomes if we employ a longer-term horizon, where the trader's performance probabilities, as evinced by his track record, have a chance to come into play over a series of trades. Let me show you the probability distribution of the outcomes associated with the model developed in my previous articles on leverage and trading. I will provide some justification for the distribution and demonstrate the mechanics involved."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-158-167-trading-profitability-and-leverage-by-j-m-malley-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-158-167-trading-profitability-and-leverage-by-j-m-malley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-158-167-trading-profitability-and-leverage-by-j-m-malley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-sidebcp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (164): SIDEBAR: Calculating probability"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Calculating probability
Using the data from the example, we have r = 0.00093553 and sr = 0.011258649. Suppose we wish to see the probability of being at a loss for L = 4 after 36 trades?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-164-sidebar-calculating-probability-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-164-sidebar-calculating-probability-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-164-sidebar-calculating-probability-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (167-173): Charles D. Kirkpatrick II of Kirkpatrick & Co. by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Charles D. Kirkpatrick II of Kirkpatrick & Co. by Thom Hartle
Charles Kirkpatrick II is not only a market researcher and money manager, but he also holds the distinction of being the first recipient of the Charles H. Dow Award for technical analysts. This award, which is cosponsored by Barron's, the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and Dow Jones Telerate, is based on the best article submitted to the MTA. Stocks & Commodities spoke with Kirkpatrick about the research that led him to his award-winning theories, how he selects stocks, his thoughts on risk management and more.
Q: W hen did your interest in the markets begin?
A: My interest in the markets began when I was a teenager. Back in the 1950s, my father was a fund manager with Fidelity; he managed the Puritan Fund as well as other funds. Back then, Fidelity was one of the first major fund management firms that used technical analysis, so as a teenager I would help my father keep his charts up to date.
Q: With that kind of background, did you go to work for a fund right after college?
A: No, I didn't. I went into the Army after I graduated from Harvard. After I got out of the service, though, my first job\nwas with Brown Brothers Harriman. After that, I left to go work for Tony Tabell at Walston & Co. Tony's father, as\nyou know, was Edmund Tabell, a very famous technician, best known for his point & figure work. They had done technical studies for my father, which is how I first met them. At Walston, among my various duties was to try and improve technical methods for selecting stocks.
Q: What did you find?
A: One area of technical analysis that I looked at was volume. The traditional point & figure method does not use volume, so that was one area I tried to incorporate, but it turned out to be fruitless. There was nothing I could find that was a quantifiable use of volume, at least on a day-to-day basis for trading stocks. Since then, after I did all that research, I've been very skeptical of daily volume statistics and indicators that use daily volume for stocks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-167-173-charles-d-kirkpatrick-ii-of-kirkpatrick-co-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-167-173-charles-d-kirkpatrick-ii-of-kirkpatrick-co-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-167-173-charles-d-kirkpatrick-ii-of-kirkpatrick-co-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-sideblw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (173): SIDEBAR: The long wave"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: The long wave
According to Charles Kirkpatrick's award-winning \""Charles Dow looks at the long wave,\"" there is a fourth wave or a cycle of a longer-term nature beyond the \""three well-defined movements,\"" as Charles H. Dow himself referred to in January 1902 in a Wall Street Journal editorial. In that article, Dow outlined his theory following an earlier article depicting stock market movements as comparable to ocean waves during a tidal cycle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-173-sidebar-the-long-wave-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-173-sidebar-the-long-wave-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-173-sidebar-the-long-wave-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-modifyv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (174-179): Modifying the Volatility Index by S. Jack Karczewski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Modifying the Volatility Index by S. Jack Karczewski
Here's the scoop on the volatility index as an analytical tool for identifying extremes in market sentiment.
Every trader and investor recognizes that the stock market has some degree of volatility because clearly, the market does not move in a straight line. However, traders with a certain amount of market experience eventually come to view market volatility as both a positive and a negative. It can be seen as a negative, because volatility is an unknown and unknowable measure of risk - how quickly will a market adjust to the new state of economic affairs? - and it can be seen as a positive, because every investment and every trade relies on that very same price movement or volatility to realize a profit.
The volatility of a stock or a futures contract is more important to traders in the options market. The price movement of the underlying instrument from which the option derives its price determines the profitability of the option's contract at expiration. It follows, then, that the price of an option reflects options traders' combined expectations of where the underlying instrument may be when the options contract expires.
If you study the options markets, you can learn what the options markets' prices imply about the market's future. This implied volatility is a popular topic to traders; in fact, there is an index based on the implied volatility concept, created and disseminated during the day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), called the volatility index. This index is the implied volatility of a group of Standard & Poor's 100 index options."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-174-179-modifying-the-volatility-index-by-s-jack-karczewski-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-174-179-modifying-the-volatility-index-by-s-jack-karczewski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-174-179-modifying-the-volatility-index-by-s-jack-karczewski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c04-force-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:4 (180-183): The Force Index by John A. Sarkett"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Force Index by John A. Sarkett
Here's a little-known indicator that combines price change and volume to create a short-term and an intermediate-term trading tool.
Like ocean waves, prices have an ebb and a flow. Once in a while, however, a huge shift in price and volume hits the market with the impact of a tidal wave, setting the stage for follow-through price movement. One particular indicator, the force index, measures and depicts this major event more vividly than any other. Developed by Alexander Elder, it is presented at length in his latest book, Trading for a Living.
The force index focuses on three key pieces of market information: price change, extent of price change and trading volume. The force of every move is defined by its direction, distance and volume. If prices close higher, the force is positive; if it is lower, then the force is negative. The greater the change in prices, the greater the force. The greater the volume, the greater the force. That's the simple concept behind the force index.\nLike other oscillators, the index works best if it is smoothed with an exponential moving average (EMA). The index smoothed with a short EMA - for example, two days - helps pinpoint entry and exit points. The force index smoothed with a longer EMA - for example, 13 days - shows major change in the force of bulls and bears."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-180-183-the-force-index-by-john-a-sarkett-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-180-183-the-force-index-by-john-a-sarkett-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-4-180-183-the-force-index-by-john-a-sarkett-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-making-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5 (189-195): Making the Titanic Fly by Dennis Meyers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Making the Titanic Fly by Dennis Meyers
The Titanic syndrome is a stock market timing system built on various stock market indicators. As with all trading systems, additional refinements are possible on the original. Here, then, is one trader's double set of modifications on the original Titanic syndrome system.
The Titanic syndrome system, which was originally formulated by the late Bill Ohama, caught my attention\nbecause of the title and theory behind it. Ohama introduced the system in STOCKS & COMMODITIES and then detailed his buy and sell criteria for the Titanic syndrome system in a 1991 EQUIS Monitor article. With that, he updated all the buy and sell signals that the system generated from February 21, 1980, to August 23, 1990. Figure 1 shows the Ohama buy and sell criteria, with my own annotations to make the criteria easier to follow. Figure 2 reproduces the buy and sell signals as printed in the EQUIS Monitor."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-189-195-making-the-titanic-fly-by-dennis-meyers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-189-195-making-the-titanic-fly-by-dennis-meyers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-189-195-making-the-titanic-fly-by-dennis-meyers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-sidetrd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5 (189-195): SIDEBAR: TradeStation code"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: TradeStation code
Here's the code for flying the titantic for tradestation 3.01. Anyhting between the curly brackets {.....} is a\ncomment statement and doesn't have to be typed in."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-189-195-sidebar-tradestation-code-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-189-195-sidebar-tradestation-code-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-189-195-sidebar-tradestation-code-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-nyse-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5 (196-199): NYSE Tick Index and Candlesticks by Tim Ord"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NYSE Tick Index and Candlesticks by Tim Ord
The tick index may appear to be one of the simplest of market indicators, but it also offers insight into market psychology. As a stand-alone indicator, the tick index has its place in the technician's toolbox, but combining the tick index with candlestick charting, another technical method for spotting changes in market trends, creates a potent combination.
A wealth of information waits to be discovered in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) tick index. Its strong suit is its simple calculation. At any point, this index represents the number of stocks trading on an uptick minus the number of stocks trading on a downtick. Extreme tick readings of greater than +600 may indicate temporary exhaustion of buying power, while negative tick readings in the territory of 800 or more can point to a selling climax.
I use these readings throughout the day as an indicator for buy and sell decisions, as well as for recognizing the continuation of the prevailing trend. The tick index is broadcast throughout the day from most real-time data vendors, including the stock market tape that can be seen on the bottom of the screen during CNBC's day-time broadcast. The tick index can be enhanced by using technical price pattern recognition, specifically candlestick charts. Although I have used numerous other technical studies, combining the NYSE tick index and candlestick charting creates a reliable indicator for signaling turning points in the stock market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-196-199-nyse-tick-index-and-candlesticks-by-tim-ord-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-196-199-nyse-tick-index-and-candlesticks-by-tim-ord-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-196-199-nyse-tick-index-and-candlesticks-by-tim-ord-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-sidecan-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5 (198): SIDEBAR: The candlestick method"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: The candlestick method
The candlestick chart can be used to interpret the movement of markets from intraday out to a monthly chart format. This sidebar provides an illustration of the candlestick body."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-198-sidebar-the-candlestick-method-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-198-sidebar-the-candlestick-method-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-198-sidebar-the-candlestick-method-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-adjia-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5 (200-203): A DJIA Long-Term Momentum Indicator by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A DJIA Long-Term Momentum Indicator by Jay Kaeppel
Picking the tops and bottoms of the market has always been the dream of traders. Is it necessary, though? Here are the results of using a long-term momentum indicator based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
With powerful personal computers and abundant price data now commonly available, many stock market professionals - and even nonprofessionals - are focusing more and more on capturing profits from short-term trading. With many new traders in particular, the goal seems to be anticipating and pinpointing market tops or bottoms. For them, it appears that nothing less will do. The problem with this approach is that it assumes that picking tops and bottoms is necessary to make a profit. More to the point, this approach assumes that picking exact tops and bottoms is even possible.
When looking for an entry point to buy stocks, the most useful question is not \""Are we at the bottom?\"" but rather, \""What is the probability of the market rising from current levels?\"" Investors may fare better by focusing more on current trends and the likelihood of a major advance and focusing less on trying to pick those elusive turning points."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-200-203-a-djia-long-term-momentum-indicator-by-jay-kaeppel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-200-203-a-djia-long-term-momentum-indicator-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-200-203-a-djia-long-term-momentum-indicator-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-using-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5 (204-208): Using a Covered-Call Options Strategy by Lawrence Serven"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using a Covered-Call Options Strategy by Lawrence Serven
What can investors do to overcome adverse market conditions? You could try using a covered call strategy. This strategic planner and analyst recounts a series of trades he executed using a covered-call options strategy in a high-technology stock.
At the start of 1994, Intel Corp. (INTC) was an analyst's dream. The microchip maker was the undisputed leader in a high-growth industry. The company had an astonishing record of increasing revenue and improving earnings on a quarter to quarter, year to year basis. The company produced these results not by chance, but by following a coherent strategy.\nIntel invested staggering sums into research and development to produce technological advancements that competitors found hard to match in any timely way. By the time a competitor could match the technology, Intel would be ready to lower prices, ensuring their own profitability while squeezing the margins of their competitors.
Reinvesting profit back into R&D enabled Intel to begin the cycle over again, thus ensuring their dominance in the industry. If this were not enough to persuade investors, INTC stock at the beginning of 1994 carried a price/earnings level of 13, which was very reasonable given that earnings growth was projected to be 18%.\nThis was enough for me. On March 3, 1994, I took the plunge into INTC, purchasing 1,000 shares at $70.50 per share."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-204-208-using-a-covered-call-options-strategy-by-lawrence-serven-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-204-208-using-a-covered-call-options-strategy-by-lawrence-serven-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-204-208-using-a-covered-call-options-strategy-by-lawrence-serven-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5 (209-215): Trading Multiple Time Frames by Gene Carey"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Multiple Time Frames by Gene Carey
Waiting until the end of the day for a trading signal may be an unnecessary delay for your trading system. How can we get around it? Here's one trader's method of improving a system by using more than one time period for market signals.
Using different time frames in developing a computerized trading system can increase your profits substantially, whether you're a short-term or long-term trader. Some traders still visually analyze different time frames of data to spot familiar patterns, but others have learned that using a personal computer to perform these tasks can be more efficient. Here's one technique in which the computer may be put to use to maximize profits by utilizing data in at least two different time frames. You may use this by utilizing either longer-term or shorter-term time-frame bar charts than your present systems employ.
Such a stratagem may be used on most any market in any two (or more) time frames, and it is also appealing as it may be applied to most any bar chart study, whether it is a simple indicator or a complex system. The only limitations to this technique are those that may be imposed by the software and/or hardware used.\nThe technique is based on a simple principle: larger time-frame price bars are made up of smaller time-frame price bars. For the long-term trader, this means that much greater resolution on price activity is possible, and for the short-term trader, this means that the larger picture may be kept in focus by the computerized system being used."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-209-215-trading-multiple-time-frames-by-gene-carey-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-209-215-trading-multiple-time-frames-by-gene-carey-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-209-215-trading-multiple-time-frames-by-gene-carey-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5: (216-222): Exploring the Science of Technical Analysis: Thomas R. DeMark by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Thomas R. DeMark by Thom Hartle
Thomas R. DeMark has been called \""the ultimate indicator and systems guy\"" with the publication of his well-received book, The New Science of Technical Analysis. Who is he and what has he done that deserves such accolades? Stocks & Commodities interviewed DeMark about his trading philosophies and how he explored the frontiers of technical analysis using basic techniques.
Q: When did you first get interested in the markets?
A: I first got interested when I was a junior in college and a professor I admired introduced me to the markets. Then, after college I went on to law school, then graduate school for business. It was during a summer job during my business school days that I was introduced to technical analysis.
Q: Did you start out with an interest in fundamental analysis and then shift toward a technical approach?
A: Not really. It's just my nature to always be looking for something more than just what other people are doing.\nTechnical analysis was not a part of the academic forum. I was very intrigued that there could be another level of market analysis that was not being discussed at an academic level.
Q: What did you do after graduate school? Did you pursue your interest in technical analysis then?
A: I accepted a position with a money management firm. It didn't pay as well as other opportunities I was offered, but it was a job with a very progressive company.
Q: How was it progressive?
A: The president of the company was a visionary. He anticipated the growth in the pension business and the need for risk management. In 1970, we had $200 million under management. If you recall, the 1970s were a tough time in the stock market. We moved our accounts out of the stock market in the early 1970s and managed to miss the bear market. That enhanced our reputation, and the amount of money we had under management climbed to more than $4 billion. We were the go-go boys of the 1970s."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-216-222-exploring-the-science-of-technical-analysis-thomas-r-demark-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-216-222-exploring-the-science-of-technical-analysis-thomas-r-demark-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-216-222-exploring-the-science-of-technical-analysis-thomas-r-demark-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-sidepro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5: (219, 222): SIDEBAR: Profit Objectives and Sequential System"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Profit Objectives and Sequential System
The classic form of chart analysis incorporates a method to project profit objectives after a trendline is penetrated. Along those lines, Tom DeMark developed three methods to identify profit objectives after the penetration of TD demand or supply lines. The methods are known as TD price projectors and the objectives are based on DeMark's observation that the difference between the extreme low price and the TD supply line is duplicated once the market has penetrated the TD supply line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-219-222-sidebar-profit-objectives-and-sequential-system-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-219-222-sidebar-profit-objectives-and-sequential-system-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-219-222-sidebar-profit-objectives-and-sequential-system-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-forcast-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5: (223-226): Forecasting T-Bill Rates With A Neural Net by Milam Aiken"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Forecasting T-Bill Rates With A Neural Net by Milam Aiken
Have you ever wondered how accurate the consensus estimates of interest rates were from the top US economists? How about how accurate those economists are in comparison with neural net technology? A recent Forbes magazine article noted that three-month Treasury bill futures more accurately predict interest rates a year in advance than do forecasts made through annual surveys of approximately 50 of the nation's top economists. In addition to being more accurate, these forecasts were more readily available because data on T-bill futures are published daily in many financial periodicals. The comparison between a market forecast and the expert forecast intrigued me, so I decided to use a neural network to forecast T-bill rates for a comparison of all three forecasts. Here's how a neural network to forecast these rates can be developed using two commercially available programs.
HOW CAN RATES BE PREDICTED?
Using the Business Cycle Indicators (BCI) software, I was able to view how different data series compared with three-month T-bill rates (BCI has more than 250 data series from which to choose). Many of the series appeared to have no correlation at all, were coincident or even lagging. Most of the financial data series (bonds, interest rates and so forth) were highly correlated but coincident (changing along with the T-bill yield) and had no predictive ability. However, the three leading economic indicator series and money supply (M1) often turned before T-bill yields, giving a high degree of predictive value. The leading economic indicators are the Department of Commerce Leading\nEconomic Indicator Composite Index (LEI), the Center for International Business Cycle Research Short Leading Composite Index, and the CIBCR Long Leading Composite Index."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-223-226-forecasting-t-bill-rates-with-a-neural-net-by-milam-aiken-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-223-226-forecasting-t-bill-rates-with-a-neural-net-by-milam-aiken-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-223-226-forecasting-t-bill-rates-with-a-neural-net-by-milam-aiken-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c05-promis-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.13:5: (227-229): Promising The Result by Ari Kiev, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Promising The Result by Ari Kiev, M.D.
Overcome psychological impediments to your trading. This psychiatrist discusses how to maximize trading performance by committing to specific financial results.
The greatest resistance I run into when working with traders concerns commitment to specific financial objectives. Most traders seem to prefer pursuing vague goals such as \""doing the best possible.\"" Like most people, traders are reluctant to commit themselves to an uncertain future without guarantees. It takes a while, if ever, for them to see that promising the future will raise their level of performance by setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy that will help them overcome internal fears and inhibitions. It is the best way to teach traders to keep asking themselves what else is needed to produce the desired result rather than accept poor results as the inevitable reflection of personal weakness. Think of the most successful master traders that you know. Invariably, you'll find that one of the critical keys to their performance is a willingness to promise the outcome before they take action and then do whatever it takes to produce the promised result. This takes accountability, responsibility and a willingness to deal with reality, despite the naturally occurring thoughts that encourage withdrawal and retreat."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-227-229-promising-the-result-by-ari-kiev-m-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-227-229-promising-the-result-by-ari-kiev-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-13-5-227-229-promising-the-result-by-ari-kiev-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-sideind-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14.3 (123): SIDEBAR: Indicators and Formulas"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INDICATORS AND FORMULAS
Bollinger bands are channel lines plotted two standard deviations above and below a 20-day simple moving average.\nA 20-day lookback period is also used for the standard deviation measurement. The formula for standard deviations\nis as follows:
...
Standard deviation measures the difference between each day in the lookback period and the moving average,\nsquares the differences so that they are all positive values, sums the differences and divides by N . The square root\nis then calculated of this ratio."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-123-sidebar-indicators-and-formulas-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-123-sidebar-indicators-and-formulas-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-123-sidebar-indicators-and-formulas-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-theelec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (11-18): The Electric Utility Bond Market Indicator by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.14:1 (11-18): The Electric Utility Bond Market Indicator by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
There's a close relationship between the performance of the electric utilities stock index and the bond market. Technicians use this relationship to forecast the direction of interest rates. This S&C Contributing Editor takes it one step further and designs a trading system for bonds based on the S&P 500 electric utility index.
Electric utilities stock indices have long been assumed to be a leading indicator of the bond market. Utilities are linked to bonds, the theory goes, because they are influenced by the direction of long-term interest rates. The economic reasoning for the links and influences between the utility stock indices and long-term interest rates have never been satisfactorily developed. However, stocks seem to lead the economic statistics that have a direct bearing on the economy.
Most of the published work on the utilities-interest rate relationship to date has been anecdotal; graphs and charts of the bonds and electric utilities have been used by various analysts, and the lead-lag relationship between the two indices over a few select periods has been frequently noted. No concerted effort has been made, however, to determine an exact formula or equation that would allow predicting the direction of one index from the other.
I will do so here. I will create and test various technical indicators on the electric utility index in an attempt to predict the direction of long-term interest rates.
DATA DISCUSSION
Choosing the long-term interest rate series deserves discussion. Many analysts tend to use the Dow Jones 20 bond (DJ20) index as a proxy for the bond market. What is not commonly known is that prior to 1994, a few of the components of the DJ20 were convertible bonds. Convertible bonds act like stock when the price of the underlying stock is above the conversion price. This point was hammered home on December 6, 1993, when one of the components of the DJ20, the Hercules 8% 2010 convertible bond, jumped 43 points in one day because of a takeover play on the underlying stock.
This caused the DJ20 to rise by 2.11 points, even though the bond market itself was quiet that day. Dow Jones replaced the Hercules bond with another true bond series and adjusted the DJ20 series for the jump. The point remains, however, that the DJ20 was not a pure bond index, and so it will not be used here. Without the DJ20, there are few choices left if accurate data going back over 20 years is required.
For long-term interest rates, I will use the daily 30-year Treasury bond yield series. This series is widely available, and historical data can be obtained from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Board via their free electronic bulletin board service and through popular data services. A weekly 30-year T-bond yield series will be created from the daily series. For the electric utility index, the weekly S&P electric utility index (EUT) will be used. The EUT is published every Wednesday by Standard & Poor's and is released on that day after the close. (For definitions on the parameters used in this article, see sidebar, \""Defining parameters.\"")"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-11-18-the-electric-utility-bond-market-indicator-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-11-18-the-electric-utility-bond-market-indicator-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-11-18-the-electric-utility-bond-market-indicator-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-sidedef-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (12): SIDEBAR: Defining parameters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""DEFINING PARAMETERS
TradeStation's EasyLanguage has a number of restrictions on the use of variable names. Variable names cannot\nexceed 20 characters in length, cannot use spaces and cannot use special characters (such as the characters above the\nnumber keys on a standard IBM keyboard). In addition, variable names cannot be one of TradeStation's reserved\nwords; for example, the variable name delta , which is a TradeStation reserved word, cannot be used for that\npurpose. These restrictions make abbreviations necessary for the variables in this article, and some of them may\nconfuse the reader. To help alleviate any confusion and clarify the article, here's a list of variable definitions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-12-sidebar-defining-parameters-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-12-sidebar-defining-parameters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-12-sidebar-defining-parameters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-quasise-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (19-25): Quasi-Seasonal Tendencies in Bond Futures by Scott Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.14:1 (19-25): Quasi-Seasonal Tendencies in Bond Futures by Scott Barrie
Markets may have certain persistent characteristics. Here, a market analyst takes a close look at the Treasury bond futures markets to see if there are tradable patterns.
Agricultural commodities traders are familiar with seasonal tendencies. Crops are planted at around the same time each year and harvested around the same time each year, so prices tend to follow the normal planting and harvesting cycle of production. Soybeans seem to rally in April, May or June based on drought scares, except in 1993, when soybeans rallied on flood scares instead. During September and October, exchange floor participants are always talking about harvest pressures. These well-documented tendencies present a sound building block for trading\nagricultural futures. Financial traders have no simple production cycle upon which to base trading, but\nquasi-seasonal biases do exist in the bond market. These tendencies may be based on the cycle of economic report releases, the refunding of the federal debt or other factors that affect interest rates.
As a basis for the analysis of directional bias in the bond market, I followed the studies done by Arthur A. Merrill in his ground-breaking Behavior of Prices on Wall Street , as well as the work done by Yale Hirsch in Stock Trader's Almanac . Both works deal only with the stock market and therefore were used as guides in analytic method only. As a proxy for the bond market, I used the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) long bond futures contract from 1979 to 1994 unless otherwise stated. This work is intended in no way to be as complete as the previously mentioned writers' studies, simply because the number of occurrences available to study are not nearly as plentiful for bond futures as it is for the stock averages.
ANALYZING BIASES
In examining central tendencies, I began my study by looking for particular days of the week with high propensities to be the weekly high, weekly low or the weekly extreme close.
Figure 1 reveals the outcome of this analysis. On a percentage basis, no day of the week is drastically different. In comparing the results, however, Friday has the highest probability of making both the weekly high and low. On close examination, Friday has more than twice the probability for having the extreme price of the week over Tuesday through Thursday, while Monday has the highest probability of being the low close for the week."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-19-25-quasi-seasonal-tendencies-in-bond-futures-by-scott-barrie-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-19-25-quasi-seasonal-tendencies-in-bond-futures-by-scott-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-19-25-quasi-seasonal-tendencies-in-bond-futures-by-scott-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-quantif-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (26-28): Quantifying Divergence with the Divergence Index by Matt Storz"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NEW TECHNIQUES\nQuantifying Divergence\nWith The Divergence Index
Divergence, a popular technical term used to denote a market movement in one direction when a technical indicator fails to follow it, can forewarn of a reversal in market direction. However, divergence has been difficult to quantify. Here's one software engineer's approach to tracking divergence. By Matt Storz
\nDivergence between market prices and an indicator applied to those prices can provide a strong signal of an\nimpending price reversal. For example, when prices make new highs but the indicator does not, an important market\ntop may be forming. After reading some references describing divergence, I began to wonder if there was a way to\nmeasure it systematically. If there were, I reasoned, it would be useful for searching large portfolios and generating\nsignals in trading systems.
Here's a way to measure divergence between price highs and an indicator to predict the strength of a new market top.\nThis method could also be used to measure the divergence between price lows and an indicator to predict the strength\nof a new market bottom. In addition, instead of measuring the divergence between prices and an indicator, it could be\nused to measure the divergence between any two values - two different prices or even two different indicators.
PEAK SELECTION
The first problem I encountered was how to select a previous peak to compare with the current one. In many of the\nexamples that I have seen in my reading, the author's choice appeared to be a subjective one. Therefore, in order to\ndevelop a system for measuring divergence, I had to first devise a system with which to measure peaks.
One way to measure the strength of a peak is to count the number of lower highs to the left and the right of it.\nClearly, a peak with 20 lower highs on each side is more significant than one with only two. The number of lower\nhighs on each side of the peak can be used to decide which peaks to use for measuring the divergence. The\ndivergence can be measured between shorter-term, less significant peaks by using a lower number or between\nlonger-term, more significant peaks by using a higher number."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-26-28-quantifying-divergence-with-the-divergence-index-by-matt-storz-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-26-28-quantifying-divergence-with-the-divergence-index-by-matt-storz-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-26-28-quantifying-divergence-with-the-divergence-index-by-matt-storz-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-theadva-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (29-33): The Advance-Decline Line Redux by Robert Kinsman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.14:1 (29-33): The Advance-Decline Line Redux by Robert Kinsman
The advance-decline line is an ongoing sum of the difference between the number of stocks closing higher minus the number of stocks closing lower each day. Here's a primer on how to use a variation on this indicator.
Often in technical analysis, a commonly used market indicator can be expanded or modified to improve its value. One case in point is the ubiquitous advance-decline line. Many technicians have found that it can be smoothed to provide oscillators that reveal both overbought and oversold levels, plus important short- and intermediate-term market turning points. The best known examples of this are the McClellan oscillator and summation index.
The theory behind the utility of an advance-decline based market indicator is obvious. It directly represents the market, no matter what the leading indices are doing. It's nice to know that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 is moving up, but if market breadth is declining, especially if the decline is sharp, chances are good that a cross-section of stocks, usually those held by most investors, are going down. Clearly, that's an\nimportant fact.
DISCOVERY
In the early 1980s, I discovered that a simple smoothing of the reported New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) advance-decline (A-D) daily numbers produces a single-formula, highly useful, direct-read oscillator. The A-D is that of the NYSE as reported in The Wall Street Journal , other financial papers and databases. This takes the A-D figures from the NYSE composite tape (all exchanges), not just the NYSE's initial report of its own advances and declines."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-29-33-the-advance-decline-line-redux-by-robert-kinsman-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-29-33-the-advance-decline-line-redux-by-robert-kinsman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-29-33-the-advance-decline-line-redux-by-robert-kinsman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-sidejkin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (32): SIDEBAR: Kinsman Smoothed A-D Calculation"",""caption-linebreaks"":""KINSMAN SMOOTHED A-D CALCULATION
A clear advantage of this oscillator is its simplicity of calculation. Two Lotus or Quattro spreadsheet columns are all\nthat are required, although I'll show them in four for the sake of clarity. The first two, the daily NYSE advances in\nA, and declines in B, can be combined as one net formula, A minus B, in column C."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-32-sidebar-kinsman-smoothed-a-d-calculation-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-32-sidebar-kinsman-smoothed-a-d-calculation-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-32-sidebar-kinsman-smoothed-a-d-calculation-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-sidehis-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (33): SIDEBAR: Historical Market Turning Points"",""caption-linebreaks"":""HISTORICAL MARKET TURNING POINTS
The Kinsman smoothed A-D has caught major trend changes in the market well over the past two decades. The most\nrecent of these:
1987
1 Selecting norms for 1987 was one of the more complicated exercises in using this oscillator. The problem was the\n1986 market (not shown), with four spikes above +400 and four under -400, plus one at -649 in September. Still,\nthe other highs and lows averaged out to a range of +100 to +300 and -200 to -300. The September spike low barely\nqualified as a bear alert and no following second spike announced a trend change.
2 January 1987 saw a bull alert at +550 that cancelled the prior bear alert. It was a rare spike in that it was followed\nby sharply declining highs averaging around +200 with lows below -75, while the S&P soared from 250 to 300,\nposting a 20% gain by March. This was a dramatic divergence between the smoothed A-D and the S&P, a definite\nnegative for the overall market. Then a -753 spike low was hit in April at S&P 280, a low-risk buy that also formed a\nbear alert as it cancelled the January bull alert.
3 Despite the messy March-May period, the norms continued to hold around +300 tops and -200 lows until the bear\nconfirmation at -644 in early September around S&P 315."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-33-sidebar-historical-market-turning-points-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-33-sidebar-historical-market-turning-points-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-33-sidebar-historical-market-turning-points-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-recover-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (34-36): Recovery and Preparing to Trade by Ari Kiev, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.14:1 (34-36): Recovery and Preparing to Trade by Ari Kiev, M.D.
Keeping a level head is key to enhancing your success as a trader. In this article, this consultant, who teaches psychological breakthrough strategies, discusses how to relinquish the emotional impact of trading failures and successes and staying focused on the upcoming trades.
Trading is a complex activity that requires unceasing self correction in the face of never-ending and ever-changing market conditions. To reach trading mastery, the trader must learn how to recover from previous trades, whether profitable or not, to relinquish the emotional impact of his most recent successes and failures and focus on upcoming trades. He can do so by using techniques of relaxation, concentration and positive thinking to recreate the positive attitude associated with successful performance.
The successful trader is able to get past the euphoria or despair of the last trade and concentrate on the present. After a series of successful trades he allows himself to feel good, but he also remains alert to any tendency to become so relaxed that he stops following his routines of preparation and strategic planning.
STEPS TO TAKE
Recovery involves a series of steps designed to access the mindset of successful trading. One step is to practice relaxation each day to facilitate focused attention. Relaxation involves breathing slowly and deeply, progressively tensing and relaxing major muscle groups of the body and focusing on a neutral object. This procedure quiets the mind and helps the trader let go of self doubt and focus on the next moment."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-34-36-recovery-and-preparing-to-trade-by-ari-kiev-m-d-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-34-36-recovery-and-preparing-to-trade-by-ari-kiev-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-34-36-recovery-and-preparing-to-trade-by-ari-kiev-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-sidethe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (43): Sidebar: The Elliott Wave by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.14:1 (43): Sidebar: The Elliott Wave by Thom Hartle
The Elliott wave principle is a method for classifying and forecasting market movement. The basic tenet is that markets move in a five-wave pattern in the direction of the trend. Once the five waves have been completed, the market will move counter to the trend in a three-wave pattern. For example, in Figure 1 the trend is up and there are five waves labeled waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are called impulse waves. Waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves, moving counter to the preceding waves. Once a five-wave movement is complete, the market will move in a countertrend fashion with a three-wave corrective movement labeled a, b and c.
Each wave, both impulse and corrective, is subdivided into waves of a smaller degree. In Figure 2, the\nsame wave pattern as Figure 1 is presented with the waves subdivided. Notice that impulse waves 1, 3\nand 5 are composed of waves of a five-wave form and waves 2 and 4 are of a three-wave nature. A\ncomplete cycle occurs once the five-wave moment followed by the three-wave corrective are complete.\nThis cycle represents a subdivision of the wave of the next higher degree. Thus, waves can be subdivided\ninto waves of a lower degree or expanded into waves of a higher degree."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-43-sidebar-the-elliott-wave-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-43-sidebar-the-elliott-wave-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-43-sidebar-the-elliott-wave-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-onusing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:1 (45-49): On Using Stops by Joe Luisi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V. 14:1 (45-49): On Using Stops by Joe Luisi
Stop orders are used to manage risk and to enter and exit positions. But what are some of the methods you can use to do so? For a look at the basics plus some of\nthe finer points, read on.
Say your favorite indicator flashes a buy signal. You proceed to call your broker and enter the market. Then what do you do? Do you just sit back and wait for the profits to roll in? What happens if the market falls apart and it turns out you're facing a big loss? Getting into a trade is the easy part; learning how to protect and manage the trade is the hard part. That's where the stop order comes in.
Stop orders, which are often referred to as just stops, are placed at price points where you want to enter or exit a trade. Technically, a stop order is one that you give your broker stating if the market trades at a certain price, then the order is triggered and becomes an order to be executed at the current market price. Buy stop orders are placed above the current market price. If the market price rises to the price on the stop order, then the order becomes a \""buy at the market\"" order. Sell stop orders, on the other hand, are placed below the current market price. If the market falls to the stop-order price, then the order becomes a sell at the market order.
All traders should use stops, whether they are mental or actually placed with a broker. There are a variety of stops that can be used depending on your situation, the market you are trading and what you are trying to accomplish. Here, we will focus only on using a stop once you are in a trade (that is, protective stops). We will explore the various types of available stops and the various techniques that can be used with them to help you manage your position and reduce your overall risk.
THE VALUE OF STOPS
Once you enter a trade or even before, you should have a stop in mind. I would not recommend mental stops unless you have the discipline to follow through with placing the order if that level is hit. People who prefer mental stops do so because they feel the floor traders will try to push the market to price levels that will trigger the execution of stop orders, and if you have your stop order in the floor broker's hand, you will suffer an unnecessary loss.
Stop running occurs when a large number of stops accumulate above resistance levels or below support levels. Stops often collect at price levels that are whole numbers (for example, 452.00). When the market seems to lack a sense of direction, floor traders will try to push the market into these stop levels to create a temporary influx of price activity. Because these moves are the result of noise, not market fundamentals, the market tends to fall back into the normal zone of trading. Fortunately, this does not happen frequently enough to be a problem. If you place your stops\nwisely, you can prevent yourself from getting caught in this activity. It is frustrating when you enter a trade, only to be stopped out; it seems as if the market moved exactly to your stop, only to reverse and move in your anticipated direction."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-45-49-on-using-stops-by-joe-luisi-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-45-49-on-using-stops-by-joe-luisi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-1-45-49-on-using-stops-by-joe-luisi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-thesire-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (415-418): The Siren Call of Optimized Trading Systems by Dennis Meyers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Siren Call Of Optimized Trading Systems by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Today's software for trading systems can take you down some dangerous paths. Here's how to avoid one mistake.
With the advent of today's high-performance desktop computers and software as well as the availability and\ncheapness of historical data, trading systems are more prevalent than ever. These systems usually hold out the\npromise, either implicitly or explicitly, of assured trading rewards. The majority of the trading systems being\noffered to the trader today are presented with hypothetical track records showing the excellent profitability and performance that could have been obtained by using that system.
The parameters for these systems are usually found by the process of optimization. In this context, optimization means that all the parameters of the system are varied until a parameter set is found producing the best performance of the system over some tradable price series. Usually, tens of thousands of parameter sets\nare examined. The parameter set that gives the best results - that is, shows the most profitability or highest\npercentage wins - is chosen, and a hypothetical track record is generated using these parameters. Such\noptimization is also known as curve-fitting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-415-418-the-siren-call-of-optimized-trading-systems-by-dennis-meyers-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-415-418-the-siren-call-of-optimized-trading-systems-by-dennis-meyers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-415-418-the-siren-call-of-optimized-trading-systems-by-dennis-meyers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-seasona-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (419- 426): Seasonality and the Presidential Election Cycle by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Seasonality And The Presidential Election Cycle by Mark Vakkur, M.D.
Can you combine politics with seasonality? With the Presidential election coming up, here's a review of some trading strategies for the stock market built around this event.
The quadrennial Presidential election-year cycle has a profound influence on the stock market. Stocks tend to\nadvance most strongly during the year immediately preceding and the year of the election, but only tread water during the other two years of the four-year cycle. How, then, might a trader incorporate this phenomenon into a trading system and combine politics with seasonality?
As a test, I used the monthly closes of the Standard & Poor's 500 from 1950 through 1995, as I did in my\nJune STOCKS & COMMODITIES article on seasonality. I ignored monthly highs and lows; I was only concerned with the percentage change in the S&P 500 for each given month from close to close. I also ignored\ndividends."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-419-426-seasonality-and-the-presidential-election-cycle-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-419-426-seasonality-and-the-presidential-election-cycle-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-419-426-seasonality-and-the-presidential-election-cycle-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-theandr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (427-431): The Andrews Line by Ron Jaenisch"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Andrews Line by Ron Jaenisch
Here's a charting method to determine market trend and identify reversal\npoints to set up trading opportunities.
When Alan Hall Andrews taught investors how to use what is now referred to as the Andrews pitchfork\ncharting technique , he probably never envisioned that this aspect of his method would be found today in\nmany technical analysis computer programs. His goal, through his original 60-page course on the\naction-reaction method, of which the pitchfork charting technique is part, was to teach how to make money by\nforecasting markets. His course was a summary of what he theorized was the most effective technical analysis\nmethods available.
To this day, little has been published on the action-reaction method. Most of the published work and concepts\nthat Alan Andrews developed and taught could only be found in his weekly course letters. Only a fraction of\nthe techniques that Andrews considered important were actually described in his course; the majority of the rules were explained, over the years, in his weekly course letters."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-427-431-the-andrews-line-by-ron-jaenisch-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-427-431-the-andrews-line-by-ron-jaenisch-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-427-431-the-andrews-line-by-ron-jaenisch-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-onsymme-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (432-437): On Symmetrical Triangles by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On Symmetrical Triangles by Thomas Bulkowski
You might have seen triangle formations and wondered what they were all about. You might have been caught on the losing side of a descending triangle and wondered what happened. For those of you who've wondered what was going on, here's the first part of a two-part refresher course on the three basic types of\ntriangle formations and how to use them in your investment decisions.
Before I buy a stock, I search the price chart for familiar patterns. The last thing I want to do is to purchase a stock, only to see it drop down beyond my stop, resulting in a loss. Checking for technical patterns allows me to look for some indication that I should not buy a stock. Over time, I find that my memory for various chart patterns gets somewhat fuzzy and I need to refresh my memory for what to look for. Here, then, is a description of symmetrical triangle formations and their significance in my battle plan in the market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-432-437-on-symmetrical-triangles-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-432-437-on-symmetrical-triangles-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-432-437-on-symmetrical-triangles-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-thoselo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (438-440): Those Losses that the Trader Creates by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Those Losses That The Trader Creates by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Traders may move from periods of success to periods of loss, but the losses may be created by the trader and not the markets. Here are some guidelines to identifying this problem and how to overcome it.
It still never fails to amaze me how an incident in a trader's childhood can determine whether he can succeed. These incidents, too painful to remember or acknowledge, are often swept under the carpet by sensitive and vulnerable people. While these experiences may be concealed within the trader's consciousness, the damaging psychological issues that result will sabotage his ability to perform. In so doing, his profits are swept under as well.
In the course of a counseling session, obvious issues will often come up in conversation about beliefs, values\nand attitudes. Then, suddenly, the trader will reveal that he was molested as a child or abandoned by his\nfamily or forced to fend for himself at an early age. These traders tend to believe that these issues should not\naffect their adult lives because it all happened long ago.
Well, we may be grown up on the outside, but unfortunately, the child within is still alive and hurting. That\nwounded child in us needs to be healed and will create opportunities for us to overcome the pain he still feels.\nAnd what better place to get your attention than in your trading?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-438-440-those-losses-that-the-trader-creates-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-438-440-those-losses-that-the-trader-creates-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-438-440-those-losses-that-the-trader-creates-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-modelin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (441-449): Modeling the Markets with Nelson Freeburg by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INTERVIEW - Modeling the Markets with Nelson Freeburg by Thom Hartle
I never could claim that I was a very good technical trader using conventional chart patterns. This absence of positive results in my own trading, combined with\nmy academic background in quantitative modeling, led me, finally, in the direction of system development.– Nelson Freeburg
Nelson Freeburg, editor and publisher of market research newsletter Formula Research, has focused his energies on the development of systematic approaches to participating in the stock, bond and futures markets. What are the key issues and steps that anyone should take to designing trading models? STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Freeburg on July 19, 1996, about such subjects as parameter sensitivity, environmental conditions and some of Freeburg's favorite models."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-441-449-modeling-the-markets-with-nelson-freeburg-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-441-449-modeling-the-markets-with-nelson-freeburg-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-441-449-modeling-the-markets-with-nelson-freeburg-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-sidekra-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (441-449): SIDEBAR: The K-Ratio Precious Metals Switch Fund"",""caption-linebreaks"":""In the July 1996 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Jay Kaeppel described a technique for evaluating gold stocks using\nthe Barron's Gold Mining Index (GMI) relative to gold bullion. He showed that analysis of the ratio between the\nGMI and the price of gold bullion could establish favorable and unfavorable outlooks for the direction of gold stocks\nand gold bullion. Nelson Freeburg modified Kaeppel's method, which he referred to as the K-ratio, and developed\na trading system for the gold stock's group. The following discussion details Freeburg's precious metals switch fund\nsystem.
The first step in the trading system is to calculate the K-ratio. The K-ratio is the GMI, found on the \""Commodities\nand Financial Futures\"" page in Barron's , divided by the price of gold. The specific price is the Handy & Harmon\nquote listed on Barron's \""Market Laboratory Economic Indicators\"" page. This ratio is used as the key indicator for\nthe trading system, which is actually a dual band model."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-441-449-sidebar-the-k-ratio-precious-metals-switch-fund-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-441-449-sidebar-the-k-ratio-precious-metals-switch-fund-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-441-449-sidebar-the-k-ratio-precious-metals-switch-fund-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-sidepat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (441-449): SIDEBAR: The Pathfinder Trading System"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Pathfinder currency trading system uses the same model for trading each of four currency futures contracts - the\nyen, the Deutschemark, the Swiss franc and the British pound. The trading rules are based on a set of conditions,\nwhich in turn are based on the closing values of a set of indicators. The first set of indicators is the six-day, nine-day\nand an 18-day simple moving average of the currency's daily closing price. A buy alert occurs when today's\nnine-day moving average crosses above today's 18-day moving average. This is just a buy alert; two more\nconditions must be satisfied before a long position can be established. The first condition is that today's six-day\nmoving average of the currency's close must be greater than the previous day's six-day moving average value. This\ncondition implies the short-term trend is up."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-441-449-sidebar-the-pathfinder-trading-system-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-441-449-sidebar-the-pathfinder-trading-system-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-441-449-sidebar-the-pathfinder-trading-system-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-porkbel-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (450-454): Pork Bellies and the COT Index by Scott W. Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pork Bellies And The COT Index by Scott W. Barrie
When presented with sentiment data, you'll need to know when to follow the crowd or be a contrarian. In our continuing look at using the COT index to predict market direction for commodities, here's a study on the\nCOT report as an indicator for trading pork bellies.
Previously, we showed some common misconceptions about the Commitments of Traders data and reevaluated some of the conventional interpretations surrounding it. Using the July corn contract on Chicago Board of Trade as the basis for our study, we determined how accurate the various classes of traders are in speculating about the future direction of the corn market during specific conditions. We tied the accuracy of the trader classifications (commercial hedgers, large speculators and small speculators) to the natural production and consumption cycles of corn.
Such analysis is well suited to the grain markets because grain markets are very seasonal in nature. We\nconcluded that the speculative accuracy of the various groups of traders depended in large part on where in the natural production and consumption cycle the commodity was."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-450-454-pork-bellies-and-the-cot-index-by-scott-w-barrie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-450-454-pork-bellies-and-the-cot-index-by-scott-w-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-450-454-pork-bellies-and-the-cot-index-by-scott-w-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c10-managin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:10 (455-459): Managing the Future with Managed Futures by Victor Sperandeo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Managing The Future With Managed Futures by Victor Sperandeo
The stock market has been trending higher for a record period, and a correction is long overdue. What can you do to stay in the game, besides reduce your risk? Consider diversifying your assets beyond just a basket of stocks. Here's the rationale.
When the equity market tops, what should you expect to happen? We can't know for certain, but we do have a model on which to base our expectations. The Japanese market is on record as having had the longest bubble in history, a span of 288 months between 1965 and 1990 - a total of 24 years. Today, the US secular bull market is not that far behind, with a bubble that began in October 1974 and which continues as of this writing."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-455-459-managing-the-future-with-managed-futures-by-victor-sperandeo-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-455-459-managing-the-future-with-managed-futures-by-victor-sperandeo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-10-455-459-managing-the-future-with-managed-futures-by-victor-sperandeo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c11-sidenor-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:11 (465-470): SIDEBAR: Normalize to Compare"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NORMALIZE TO COMPARE
You can't compare apples and oranges - but if you need to try, normalizing the data is a way to\nmake unlikely comparisons possible. A traditional method is to map values from the raw data\nonto a standard normal or bell curve. This lets you state, for example, that the apple has a\n\""normal\"" weight - that is, average compared with other apples - whereas the orange is perhaps\nheavy, weighing several standard units (called standard deviations) above the average weight for\noranges."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-465-470-sidebar-normalize-to-compare-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-465-470-sidebar-normalize-to-compare-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-465-470-sidebar-normalize-to-compare-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c11-statist-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:11 (465-470): Statistically Analyzing Volume by William M. Goodman, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Statistically Analyzing Volume by William M. Goodman, Ph.D.
Is an increase in the activity of a stock a meaningful indication of the direction of price? To answer this question, you can use statistical methods and most any spreadsheet to analyze the relationship between price and volume.
Technical analysis is an ongoing creative process of determining order in a complex pattern. In general, the pattern is reduced to a graphical or mathematical model, but a model is simply not enough. You need confirmation, and by rigorously testing your methods, you gain confidence that your findings have value.
How can you be sure a new technical indicator has merit? In the case of a price pattern, you test the pattern over different time periods or sets of charts, making buys and sells at the points suggested by the technique. This simple research can easily answer the pertinent question: Would trading based on the price pattern make you money?
This elementary form of research can be effective. Alex Saitta used it in a STOCKS & COMMODITIES article to confirm a link between US employment reports and the Treasury bond futures market. He tracked the gains and losses that would have occurred if his method had\nbeen applied over a selected period. The trading system made more money than if the buy/sell\ndecisions had been made by chance alone."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-465-470-statistically-analyzing-volume-by-william-m-goodman-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-465-470-statistically-analyzing-volume-by-william-m-goodman-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-465-470-statistically-analyzing-volume-by-william-m-goodman-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c11-dynamic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:11 (471-475O): Dynamic Multiple Time Frames by Robert Krausz, MH, BCHE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dynamic Multiple Time\nFrames by Robert Krausz, MH, BCHE
This private trader, who was profiled in The New Market Wizards,\ndiscusses one of his techniques to trade the market based on an\nearly signal for trend direction.
Over the years I have studied many unique trading methods, and I have developed my own\npersonal approach to trading the markets. I discussed some of my analytical and trading\nmethods in the September 1995 STOCKS & COMMODITIES interview. Here’s a follow-up,\nintroducing how I combine two methods: the first I call multiple time frames, and the\nsecond I refer to as the Fibonacci Trader method.
An approach based on multiple time frames uses analysis of a higher time frame, such as the weekly\nbar chart, to define the tradable trend and important support and resistance bands for the daily bar chart.\nFor example, if you want to trade the daily wheat market, then it will be the weekly wheat chart that\ndefines the tradable trend and the main support and resistance bands. If you focus on trading intraday,\nsuch as 60-minute bars, then you would use the daily bar chart to determine the trend and support and\nresistance bands. To determine the support and resistance bands as well as the tradable trend, I use my\nFibonacci Trader methods.
Before that, however, some discussion is in order about market relationships."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-471-475o-dynamic-multiple-time-frames-by-robert-krausz-mh-bche-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-471-475o-dynamic-multiple-time-frames-by-robert-krausz-mh-bche-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-471-475o-dynamic-multiple-time-frames-by-robert-krausz-mh-bche-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c11-ondevel-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:11 (476-482): On Developing Trading Systems by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""On Developing Trading Systems by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D.,with Donna L. McCormick
This neural network developer details steps in developing a trading system using advanced technology.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES readers have one thing in common: We have all taken on the challenge of attempting to forecast and trade the financial markets. For me, I first considered this challenge as the result of a chance remark. Since I had also become curious\nabout trading at the time, I decided to take on the challenge of modeling the markets. That was more than a decade ago.
Initially, I developed several models that provided only entry signals for the Standard & Poor's 500/OEX. While these signals were often 80% to 90% accurate, I found myself second-guessing them. Moreover, I had to rely on my own subjective determinations of such critical factors as when to exit and where to place stops. As a result, my first attempts at trading produced more losses than wins. Emotional decision-making is a killer when it comes to trading!
Eventually, I realized that in order to succeed, I had to do four things: First, spend more time on the problem than I had previously; second, learn more about trading and the markets; third, develop specialized tools, such as a good trading simulator, with which to develop computerized trading systems; and fourth and most important, develop a computerized system to eliminate subjectivity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-476-482-on-developing-trading-systems-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-476-482-on-developing-trading-systems-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-476-482-on-developing-trading-systems-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c11-sidebas-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:11 (483-487): SIDEBAR: BASIC and TradeStation Code for Phase Calculation"",""caption-linebreaks"":""BASIC CODE FOR PHASE CALCULATION by John F. Ehlers
This BASIC code finds the real part of the phasor (the horizontal component) and the imaginary part\nof the phasor (the vertical component) by summing the product of the price and the two sinusoids over\none full cycle of the dominant cycle. The arctangent function locates the phase to be in the first or fourth\nquadrant. The quadrant ambiguity is removed by adding p to the phase angle is the real part is negative.\nA value of p/2 is arbitrarily added to the computed phase so the start of the cycle is referenced to a\nsinewave. The computed phase angle is then tested to fall within the range from zero to 2p. The phase\nis then converted to degrees from radian measure."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-483-487-sidebar-basic-and-tradestation-code-for-phase-calculation-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-483-487-sidebar-basic-and-tradestation-code-for-phase-calculation-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-483-487-sidebar-basic-and-tradestation-code-for-phase-calculation-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c11-stayinp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:11 (483-487): Stay In Phase by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stay In Phase by John F. Ehlers
This cycles software specialist discusses an indicator based on cyclical analysis.
A cycle is one market characteristic that can be scientifically measured. Although they can be measured, they are still maddening because they are in essence ephemeral; they come and they go. Our recent research, however, indicates there is a fundamental cycle parameter that leads us to the correct trading strategy for any current market mode. To\nfind out more, we must start by defining two possible market modes, the trend mode and the cycle mode. In the trend mode, the correct strategy is to buy (or sell, for downtrends) and hold. In the cycle mode, the correct strategy is to buy and sell on the cyclic valleys and\npeaks.
The parameter we use is the phase of the cycle. The measured phase tells us with great sensitivity when we are in the trend mode, enabling the capture of a large fraction of the trend movement. Typically, this capture range is far larger than can be obtained with a crossing moving average or other usual trend identification techniques. In the cycle mode, the measured phase pinpoints the cyclic turns in advance, with the further advantage that the false whipsaw signals of typical oscillator signals are avoided."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-483-487-stay-in-phase-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-483-487-stay-in-phase-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-483-487-stay-in-phase-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c11-onthepr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:11 (497-504): On the Principle of Parsimony: James O'Shaughnessy by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On the Principle of Parsimony\nJames O'Shaughnessy by Thom Hartle
I wanted to understand why certain stocks went up and why others went\ndown. I went looking for literature that would explain what I could see\nhappening in the marketplace. I found that a lot of the available material\nwas anecdotal. Where was the scientific methodology to support the claims?\nI was surprised that there wasn't much of that type of research available. – James O'Shaughnessy
Money manager and author James O'Shaughnessy, founder and\npresident of O'Shaughnessy Capital Management, has been called a\n\""statistical guru\"" (by Barron's, no less), while his first book, Invest\nLike the Best, was pronounced \""awesome\"" by Forbes.\nO'Shaughnessy's latest work, What Works on Wall Street, is a\nserious inquiry into the investment stategies that stand up under\nlong-term scrutiny and is refreshing research for every investor. So\nwhat does work on Wall Street, and more important, why? To find\nout, STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke to\nO'Shaughnessy on August 27, 1996, via telephone interview about\ninvesting for the long term, why human nature is brilliant as well as\ndestructive and what class of companies offers the best\nopportunities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-497-504-on-the-principle-of-parsimony-james-o-shaughnessy-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-497-504-on-the-principle-of-parsimony-james-o-shaughnessy-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-497-504-on-the-principle-of-parsimony-james-o-shaughnessy-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c11-ascendi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:11.Ascending and Descending Triangles by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Ascending And Descending Triangles by Thomas Bulkowski
Last issue, symmetrical triangles and the ways to trade with this particular chart formation were the topic at hand. This month, we present two more variations of the triangle, the ascending and descending triangles, their attributes and how to use them in your investment decisions.
Triangles are a class of chart formations that serve as a pictorial description of a market that is marking time. Often, a triangle represents a consolidation after a trend, allowing for the news driving the trend to be fully discounted by the market participants before the trend resumes. However, a triangle may also denote the final stage of the trend, setting up a reversal. Ascending and descending triangles can fill both roles. First, let’s take a look at the ascending triangle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-ascending-and-descending-triangles-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-ascending-and-descending-triangles-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-11-ascending-and-descending-triangles-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c12-aruleba-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:12 (509-514): A Rule-Based Approach to Trading by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Rule-Based Approach to Trading by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D.
Last month, Katz presented his experience developing a trading system using a neural network–based approach. This month, he delves into a rule-based approach to trading.
Previously, I showed that attempts to model the markets by applying sophisticated technology such as neural networks in a simplistic manner does not work well. Present-day attempts to apply the neural-net novice approach fail because the market inefficiencies discovered by the simplistic application of sophisticated technologies have already been \""traded away\"" by speculators who used the technology to discover and trade the inefficiencies.
Once observations have been made, these ideas must be formalized into computer programming instructions.\nWhile inefficiencies may still be discovered by crude applications of such technology, more often than not the inefficiencies that are found will not be practicably tradable. In order to develop successful systems, isolated market inefficiencies that cannot be captured by the simplistic application of sophisticated technology must be identified. I decided my initial search for such inefficiencies might best be tackled not through the use of advanced technologies but through traditional rule-based systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-509-514-a-rule-based-approach-to-trading-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-509-514-a-rule-based-approach-to-trading-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-509-514-a-rule-based-approach-to-trading-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c12-floatan-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:12 (515-519): Float Analysis by Steve Woods and Jan Arps"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Float Analysis by Steve Woods and Jan Arps
Here's a close look at the turnover of a stock's float, based on an idea from the works of W.D. Gann, that reveals some dramatic patterns and expands the definition of a base or consolidation zone.
The floating supply of shares - or simply, float - is all of the shares actually available for trading by the public that are not owned by the company's management. This number can be incorporated into an understanding of the direct relationship between the stock price and its volume of shares traded. This is easily seen when a backward cumulative count of the volume is studied in relation to a stock's floating supply of shares. What emerges from this analysis are price-volume patterns that clearly show stocks forming bottoms, bases in a rising trend, and tops, as well as giving buy and sell signals. To understand this relationship between price and volume and see its powerful implications, one must understand the term float analysis.
The turnover of the float is the approximate time it takes for the float to change ownership. For example, if a stock's float has 50 million shares actively trading and the volume for the last four weeks was exactly 50 million shares, then the float's turnover would be a four-week span starting from the current date and going back to the day when a cumulative total of the volume equaled 50 million shares."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-515-519-float-analysis-by-steve-woods-and-jan-arps-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-515-519-float-analysis-by-steve-woods-and-jan-arps-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-515-519-float-analysis-by-steve-woods-and-jan-arps-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c12-combini-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:12 (520-525): Combined Trend and Oscillator Signals by Jeremy G. Konstenius"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Combining Trend and Oscillator Signals by Jeremy G. Konsten
Most trading systems fall into two categories. One, the most popular, is the trend-following method, where the signals are oriented toward putting the trader on board long-term trends. The profits acquired during the long-term trends will, hopefully, recover the monies lost during trendless activity. The other category takes advantage of trading ranges, and the trader makes the most money when the market's primary direction is sideways. Here's a trading system that incorporates both approaches to time entry and exit positions.
Market technicians looking to pinpoint market tops and bottoms have long been fascinated by the cyclical activity of markets. The oscillator, which is the class of indicators used to model the cyclical nature of markets, typically will filter the trend out of prices, leaving only the tradable cycles. In addition, an oscillator is a type of momentum indicator that shows the acceleration and deceleration of markets. When a market has been accelerating upward and then begins to slow, the oscillator levels off, indicating the price action as a market top. Likewise, if a market is accelerating downward and that acceleration slows, then a bottom is indicated by the oscillator leveling off and then rising.
The danger of oscillators is that they will register the same level of peak momentum day after day or week after week, which would indicate a top or bottom when in reality the market is simply in a long-term bull or bear market. As you can imagine, many traders have lost money by mechanically following an oscillator-based model. Premature signals falsely indicating a short position in a market in a strong uptrend or a long position in a market in a strong downtrend can lead to persistent losses. Often, the losses will compel the trader to research trend-following methods.
During a trending market, a trend-following indicator will perform better than any other indicator because the signals are designed to put the trader on the correct side of long-term trends. A simple example is the simple moving average (SMA), which smoothes out the daily fluctuations, considered to be noise, and as long as the market price stays above the rising moving average, an uptrend is in force. But during a trendless or sideways market, a series of losing trades occurs.
During such a period, each new signal leads to losses. This can happen to all trend-following models and result in significant drawdowns. My proposal, then, is to combine two indicators, an oscillator and a simple moving average system, into one trading system. The goal is to cancel out the negative properties of the individual approaches and integrate their strengths."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-520-525-combined-trend-and-oscillator-signals-by-jeremy-g-konstenius-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-520-525-combined-trend-and-oscillator-signals-by-jeremy-g-konstenius-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-520-525-combined-trend-and-oscillator-signals-by-jeremy-g-konstenius-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c12-side220-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:12 (526-529): SIDEBAR: 2/20-Day EMA Breakout System by Jeremy G. Konstenius"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: 2/20-Day EMA Breakout System Defined
Most trading systems fall into two categories. One, the most popular, is the trend-following method, where the signals are oriented toward putting the trader on board long-term trends. The profits acquired during the long-term trends will, hopefully, recover the monies lost during trendless activity. The other category takes advantage of trading ranges, and the trader makes the most money when the market's primary direction is sideways. Here's a trading system that incorporates both approaches to time entry and exit positions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-526-529-sidebar-2-20-day-ema-breakout-system-by-jeremy-g-konstenius-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-526-529-sidebar-2-20-day-ema-breakout-system-by-jeremy-g-konstenius-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-526-529-sidebar-2-20-day-ema-breakout-system-by-jeremy-g-konstenius-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c12-the220d-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:12 (526-529): The 2/20-Day EMA Breakout System by David S. Landry"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The 2/20-Day EMA Breakout System by David S. Landry
Moving average systems seek to capture meaningful trends. Here's a modified exponential moving average system that uses pattern recognition as a filter for entry rules.
Technical approaches to trading range in complexity from simple chart-based methods to complex neural network algorithms. As technicians, we are all guilty sooner or later of trying to reinvent the wheel with elaborate technical analysis. We'd all like to find the Holy Grail of an indicator that will make us rich. I have spent countless hours searching for such an indicator, only to rediscover something far less complex. The truth is this: There is no perfect indicator or system that will lead to riches while avoiding all risk.
Should you give up? Quite the contrary; the fact is that many simple indicators work well. You can use numerous off-the-shelf indicators and be quite effective as a technician. Let me explain how I rediscovered the moving average and developed a system based on it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-526-529-the-2-20-day-ema-breakout-system-by-david-s-landry-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-526-529-the-2-20-day-ema-breakout-system-by-david-s-landry-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-526-529-the-2-20-day-ema-breakout-system-by-david-s-landry-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c12-theexpa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:12 (530-533): The Expanding Triangle by Kit Webster"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Expanding Triangle by Kit Webster
Classic chart analysis and Elliott wave theory both consider the expanding or broadening triangle chart pattern to be a reversal of a long-term trend, and further, that such an event may be occurring in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Here are the details.
As technicians ply their trade, they look at myriad manifestations of price and volume such as stochastics, head and shoulder patterns, and advance-decline lines to attempt to divine the market's direction. Most often the scene we see is a variation on an old theme, played out in new ways. Every now and then, however, something unusual occurs, and this\nis such a time for the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the Standard & Poor's 500 and the New York Stock Exchange index appear to be tracing a rare but powerful formation that will influence the ongoing discussion of bull versus bear markets -and, in my opinion, the formation is decidedly bearish. This rare pattern is the expanding triangle or broadening top."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-530-533-the-expanding-triangle-by-kit-webster-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-530-533-the-expanding-triangle-by-kit-webster-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-530-533-the-expanding-triangle-by-kit-webster-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c12-stillba-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:12 (534-540): Author and Analyst John Murphy by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Author and Analyst John Murpy by Thom Hartle
John Murphy, a veteran of nearly 30 years in the equities and futures markets, is the technical analyst for CNBC television, publisher of the \""Futures Trends and Intermarket Analysis\"" newsletter and author of such classics in the field as Technical Analysis of the Futures Market and Intermarket Technical Analysis, and his newest work, The Visual Investor, promises to be comparably memorable. Most recently, he's also cofounder of MurphyMorris Inc., a joint venture to develop multimedia software for investors interested in technical analysis. With all that he's seen and done, what are some of the technical approaches he's most impressed with? Stocks & Commodities asked him about the steps he takes to profiling which markets are offering opportunities and which are not, his favorite technical indicators, and more.
Q: Where and when did you start your career as a market analyst?
A: I started in 1968 as a very junior technical analyst for the CIT Financial Corp. My job was just to chart the stocks that they had in their portfolio. At meetings we reviewed the charts, and every now and then, I would very carefully offer a comment or an observation.
Q: And they took your advice?
A: Oh, they usually ignored it. At any rate, I spent the first couple of years learning everything I could about technical analysis. I read every book I could find, even though there weren’t a lot of books available at the time. I read the classics that were available, and I took one or two courses at the New York Institute of Finance (NYIF). Then in the early 1970s, the stock market really cooled off and went into a very bad period. I switched over, temporarily I thought, into commodities, which was red hot at the time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-534-540-author-and-analyst-john-murphy-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-534-540-author-and-analyst-john-murphy-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-534-540-author-and-analyst-john-murphy-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c12-proacti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:12 (541-543): Proactive vs. Reactive Trading by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Proactive Vs. Reactive Trading by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
There are many different styles used by individual traders, some proactive, some reactive. Either can work and either can fail. Here's why.
One of the reasons why so few traders succeed has to do with whether their approach to trading is proactive or reactive. Which is a better approach? Do successful traders plan for and anticipate everything, or do they jump in without a plan, react to whatever happens and go with the flow? The answer may appear to be self-evident, but in fact, the answer is far more complex than you may realize.
Bill and Jerry are examples of the proactive and reactive approaches to trading. Bill was a successful lawyer who resolved to model his own success when he decided to switch professions and become a trader using the proactive approach. Starting out with a careful\nbusiness plan and a nest egg of $300,000, Bill immediately contacted several top traders and asked them for strategies that would expend the minimum of Bill's time while producing the maximum results. These traders suggested several seminars, books and\ntapes. From this list, Bill was able to create a substantial library, selecting only those resources that would help him become the kind of trader he wanted to be."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-541-543-proactive-vs-reactive-trading-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-541-543-proactive-vs-reactive-trading-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-12-541-543-proactive-vs-reactive-trading-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c02-gauging-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:2 (55-62): Gauging Mobility with Price Distributions by Mel Widner, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""NEW TECHNIQUES
Gauging Mobility\nWith Price Distributions
The price distribution function, which analyzes the distribution of prices over a lookback period, is useful for predicting price mobility. Here's a new method called the mobility oscillator that will allow you to do so. By Mel Widner Ph.D.
When prices remain about the same for a given period, that indicates that, essentially, buying and selling\npressures are in balance. If this persists, then the area of price activity represents an area of congestion. Since traders often place stop orders, take profits and open new positions based on their entry or exit point, it is most likely market participants will make note of this congestion area. The more time the market spends in this area, the greater its significance, and the more recent the congestion is, the greater its significance.
Basically, all price histories have ranges where the price spends more time than in others, and so there is always some degree of congestion. For some data histories, there can be regions of large and small congestion and multiple regions of congestion. These regions of congestion can be measured by determining how prices are distributed. In fact, it is possible to construct a price distribution function (PDF) to identify areas of congestion for analysis.
A PDF can be developed from a recent history of prices by computing the frequency of occurrence of a price for each\nprice within the price range. Large values of the distribution correspond to areas where the price history spend a long\ntime and small values to areas where the price history spend a short time. The PDF is determined over the range from\nthe minimum low to the maximum high for the period and may contain one or more peaks within the range.
So what does this mean? If the current price has moved from a region where the distribution function is small to a\nregion where it is large, then it might be expected that the move started with a small number of traders and is moving\nto a region where there are a larger number of traders waiting to enter. It is possible the move will be stopped by the\nreaction of the larger number of traders or be absorbed by increased market activity. Conversely, if the move is from\nlarge to small, then it is plausible that there is less reaction and less activity and the move will go further. The\nhypothesis to be examined is that it is easier for prices to move in regions where the PDF is smaller (high mobility)\nand more difficult in regions where the PDF is larger (low mobility).
If the price move is significant, then the situation is different and other factors must be considered. There can be\nreversals corresponding to profit taking or entry of new traders. Such reversals result in peaks or troughs that are the\nbasis for well-established support and resistance analysis. These peaks and troughs are implicitly included in the\nPDF analysis, since the PDF is bounded by the maximum high and minimum low for the period. It is possible to\nconstruct a mobility oscillator (MO) that captures reversals often occurring at the price extremes as well as reflections\nthat occur from the mode of the PDF."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-55-62-gauging-mobility-with-price-distributions-by-mel-widner-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-55-62-gauging-mobility-with-price-distributions-by-mel-widner-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-55-62-gauging-mobility-with-price-distributions-by-mel-widner-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c02-theunfi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:2 (65-68): The Unfinished System by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.14:2 (65-68): The Unfinished System by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Do you spend all your time trying to develop the perfect system instead of taking the plunge with a simple system? Is avoiding risk no matter what the cost at the\nheart of your problem? Take the leap. Here's how.
How's your trading?\"" I asked Ted when he called recently. \""Well, I'm still working on my system,\"" he\nanswered.
For the last four years, I've gotten the same status report from Ted. Like many novice traders, Ted is stuck in a pattern of trying to create the Holy Grail trading system. This is a system that will only allow for high returns and no losses. As a result, his system is never quite right. Instead of trading with a well-tested simple system and bringing in a reasonable return, his standard reply is, \""It should be ready in two months.\"" The underlying reason for his never-ending delay masks the real reason, which is fear. Like the performer who continually practices to get on stage but never actually does, getting ready to trade can become an avocation. When that happens, a potentially good\ntrader will set himself up to be more anxious if and when he ever does start to trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-65-68-the-unfinished-system-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-65-68-the-unfinished-system-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-65-68-the-unfinished-system-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c02-theadva-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:2 (69-75): The Advance-Decline, New-High, New-Low Market System by D. Meyers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.14:2 (69-75): The Advance-Decline, New-High, New-Low Market System by Dennis Meyers
Try combining popular technical stock market indicators - the advance-decline line, the number of stocks making new highs and the number of stocks making new lows - to develop a trading system for the stock market.
The advance-decline line (ADL) has long been acknowledged as a valuable indicator of future market direction. Much of the discussion to date on how to use the ADL has been anecdotal, however. There have been numerous references on how negative divergences between the ADL and the Dow Jones averages (DJ) or negative relative strength between the ADL and DJ have led to substantial market declines. However, none of the studies have presented a rigorous test of their theories over an extended market period or have shown the details of every case that\nsatisfies their buy and sell criteria over an extended market time horizon.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) new 52-week highs (NH) and new 52-week lows (NL) have often been cited as valuable indicators of future market action. Since January 1978, the NHs and NLs have been calculated on a 52-week basis. Before then, the NHs and NLs were calculated for a time horizon of anywhere from two and a half months to 14 1 / 2 months. A number of studies have used the NH/(NH+NL) ratio or its averages as a stock market\nindicator. While these studies have provided valuable indicators, it is possible NHs and NLs represent two distinct investor expectations and would provide more information about the future direction of the stock market if treated separately and not combined.
In this article I will create new NH and NL indicators and a new ADL relative strength indicator and test the\ncombination of these new indicators to predict the direction of the Standard & Poor's 500."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-69-75-the-advance-decline-new-high-new-low-market-system-by-d-meyers-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-69-75-the-advance-decline-new-high-new-low-market-system-by-d-meyers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-69-75-the-advance-decline-new-high-new-low-market-system-by-d-meyers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c02-quantif-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:2 (76-78): Quantifying Percentage Retracements by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V. 14:2 (76-78): Quantifying Percentage Retracements by Alex Saitta
Traders often look for retracements of a market trend to establish new positions with that trend. But how often and how far does a market retrace the prior move\nbefore continuing? For the answer, this market analyst examines the Treasury bond futures market to determine typical retracement behavior.
When the market is in a trend, it often retraces a portion of the prior move before the trend resumes. When a\ncorrection begins and the market retraces a portion of the prior advance, traders who missed the previous advance enter the market and buy at this point. Then the trend resumes (Figure 1).
After an advance has been in motion for a lengthy period, latecomers start jumping in. These market participants buy not because they are compelled by strong technical or fundamental evidence; they buy because the uptrend has conditioned them to think the market will rise again tomorrow. Without strong reasoning, such traders lack conviction, so they will liquidate at the first signs of weakness. As soon as the advance stalls or the market drops slightly, these traders sell out, and in turn their liquidation triggers the start of a correction. Technicians believe a decline to at least the 33.3% retracement† level will follow as these latecomers dump their positions. Because of this,\ntechnical analysts have identified the 33.3% retracement as the minimum retracement.
After the 33.3% retracement level has been reached, technicians assume these participants have been flushed out of the market. Only then is it possible for the uptrend to resume. So at that level, the most bullish technicians re-enter the market, creating initial support in the area of the 33.3% retracement. Often, the trend resumes from there."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-76-78-quantifying-percentage-retracements-by-alex-saitta-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-76-78-quantifying-percentage-retracements-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-76-78-quantifying-percentage-retracements-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c02-options-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:2 (79-86): Options Strategist Lawrence G. McMillan by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INTERVIEW: Options As A Strategic Investment
I pretty much determined that it was hard to predict stock prices, and of course, back in 1973 and 1974, it was a bear market. Options were a good vehicle for me\nto work with because of their advantages, like shorting a stock, and that fit in well with the way I thought about things.-Lawrence McMillan
Options are a part of general financial strategy that at once draws and repels market participants. It's also a strategy that ironically you've basically got to lose money at in order to understand. So how do you learn more about it? It helps if you're familiar with Lawrence McMillan's Options As A Strategic Investment, a classic tome in the investment field. STOCKS & COMMODITIES spoke to McMillan, who is also the publisher of The Options Strategist newsletter, and asked him about the ins and outs of options. S&C Editor Thom Hartle asked McMillan about, among other things, implied volatility; how far McMillan goes out to buy options; why it's important to do research on your portfolio; some strategies he uses and how expirations of index options move the market. The interview was conducted on November 13, 1995, via telephone.\nby Thom Harle
How did you get started in the business?
After I completed my masters' degrees in math and computer science in 1972, I went to work for Bell Labs. Then in 1973 listed options began trading and I was intrigued with that market, so I focused my attention on options. That was my start in the business.
As a private investor?
Right. I ended up writing a newsletter on options on the side. That was in 1974 and 1975. Then in 1976, I became the retail strategist for Thomson-McKinnon. Eventually, I became the senior vice president of the equity arbitrage department and I traded the firm's capital. I did that through the 1980s.
When did you write Options As A Strategic Investment?
It would have been late in the 1970s. The first edition came out in 1980. I wrote the book because the publisher, the New York Institute of Finance, was looking for someone to write a book about options and they went to the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and Jim Dolan, who was the president of the CBOE at the time, referred me to them. It took me about two years to write the first edition, and then I did the second edition in 1986 and the third edition in 1993. I've been keeping it fairly current in the meantime, weeding out some things and adding a few others.
So when did you decide to go out on your own?
It took a while to come to that decision. After Thomson-McKinnon went out of business in 1989, I went to Prudential for a while, but that position wasn't right for me so about a year later I started my own company. Today, I'm publishing a couple of newsletters and trading for my own account."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-79-86-options-strategist-lawrence-g-mcmillan-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-79-86-options-strategist-lawrence-g-mcmillan-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-79-86-options-strategist-lawrence-g-mcmillan-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c02-evaluat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:2 (87-90): Evaluating Performance by K.D. Angle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MONEY MANAGEMENT
Evaluating Performance
When you're taking a look at records of trading systems and money managers for consistent performance, here are some things to look for. By K.D. Angle
Knowing what to look for in the performance characteristics of any trading system or management program is\nvital for anyone interested in the markets. I have been involved in developing trading strategies for the past 15 years,\nand I have come up with some standards with which to measure performance either in research on historical price\ndata or in real-time application. I began by examining the performance characteristics of top traders, those whom the industry regards as being the best in the field.
Many of these trading icons now manage a billion dollars or more. It's not surprising their annualized performance,\nwith these huge levels of equity, have generally been disappointing over the last few years. What I wanted to\nexamine, however, were those initial growth years of over three to four years when they initially earned their\nreputation. After analyzing the performance of several such traders, I noticed some similar performance\ncharacteristics among them."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-87-90-evaluating-performance-by-k-d-angle-20.gif"",""height"":""266"",""width"":""206""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-87-90-evaluating-performance-by-k-d-angle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-2-87-90-evaluating-performance-by-k-d-angle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-apricea-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (103-105): A Price- and Volume-Based System by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING TECHNIQUES
A Price- And\nVolume-Based System
Traders often use moving averages of just price to signal trends. Here's a moving\naverage system that uses price and volume for trading signals.\nby Alex Saitta
N ot a month goes by that a trading magazine or technical analysis journal doesn't publish an article introducing a\nnew and more sophisticated technical idea or tool. As a result, there's a widespread assumption that old ideas and\nsimple tools are no longer applicable to today's markets - an erroneous assumption. The drive for ever-more\nsophisticated concepts and indicators notwithstanding, a trading strategy based on old ideas and simple technical\ntools can be profitable in today's markets.
The fundamental forces underlying financial securities tend to trend primarily due to the business cycle. As a result,\nsecurity markets tend to trend† as well. Economic activity and bond prices are tied together, with the connection\nbetween them being demand and supply for credit. For instance, when the economy moves out of the recession\nphase of the business cycle and enters the recovery phase, the private sector's demand for credit increases. This\ncauses long-term interest rates to rise and a downward price trend to develop in the bond market. Then, as the\nrecovery strengthens and the economy cycles into the expansion phase, demand for credit grows, rates rise further\nand the downtrend continues."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-103-105-a-price-and-volume-based-system-by-alex-saitta-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-103-105-a-price-and-volume-based-system-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-103-105-a-price-and-volume-based-system-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-covered-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (106-110): Covered Call Writing by Steven Schinke, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""DERIVATIVES
Covered Call Writing
Here's a primer on writing options to boost return on investment.\nby Steven P. Schinke, Ph.D.
Options derivatives for stocks and commodities come in two types: One is bought and sold in transactions\nbetween two parties directly, while the other is traded on exchanges. The first, over-the-counter (OTC) options, are\noften complex in their mechanisms and pricing, and so are negotiated between institutions with counterparty backing. Because of their singular properties, OTC options are usually not transferred. In contrast, exchange-traded options\nare priced in a public market, can be transferred and are not negotiated between the originating and purchasing\nparties. The most familiar exchange-traded options are calls and puts, available on thousands of equities and on most\nfutures.
Call options allow the bearer to purchase an issue (equity or commodity) at a preset price within a prescribed time\nframe. Put options allow the bearer to sell an issue at a preset price within a prescribed time frame. (To remember\nthese differences, consider that when you buy something you \""call\"" it away from the seller; when you sell something\nyou \""put\"" it to the purchaser.) Calls and puts carry values based on price and volatility of underlying issues,\nprevailing interest rates and time remaining in the option's life. The price of those values, referred to as premium , is\nset in a conventional bid and offer."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-106-110-covered-call-writing-by-steven-schinke-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-106-110-covered-call-writing-by-steven-schinke-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-106-110-covered-call-writing-by-steven-schinke-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-theknig-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (111-114): The Knight-Ridder CRB Index by Raymond T. Murphy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""STATISTICS
The Knight-Ridder Crb Index
The Knight-Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau Index - the CRB to you and me\n- has been updated to reflect today's commodity markets. Here's an explanation\nof the changes to this industry barometer.\nby Raymond T. Murphy
The Knight-Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index has been the premier barometer of commodity\nprices since 1956, tracking tradables such as wheat and corn, crude and heating oil. Over the years, the index has\nevolved into a comprehensive commodity benchmark covering a wide range of actively traded commodity futures\ncontracts. As futures markets have matured and new markets have come into being, the KR-CRB Index has changed\nalong with them. By adding crude oil to the index in 1982 and deleting some agricultural commodities in 1987, the\nindex has kept pace with many of the advances in the commodity investment area.
The KR-CRB Index futures contract began trading on the New York Futures Exchange (NYFE) in 1986. Since then,\nthe index has been scrutinized to make available a market where both large investors and small are able to replicate\nthe movement of a basket of commodity futures contracts at a fraction of the cost of owning the individual contracts.\nOver the years, several component commodities of the index came to be viewed as nonessential, while other\nimportant commodities were added. As time passed, these changes were all undertaken with the sole purpose of\nmaintaining an accurate and meaningful measurement of commodity prices. The final and most significant changes\nwere implemented on December 6, 1995."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-111-114-the-knight-ridder-crb-index-by-raymond-t-murphy-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-111-114-the-knight-ridder-crb-index-by-raymond-t-murphy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-111-114-the-knight-ridder-crb-index-by-raymond-t-murphy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-measuri-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (115-118): Measuring System Performance by Lars N. Kestner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING TECHNIQUES
Measuring System Performance
Want to improve the evaluation of your trading systems? Here's a new\nperformance measure that uses some statistics to measure profitability through\ntime.\nby Lars N. Kestner
Starting with an idea and developing a trading system is a relatively simple and straightforward process. Because\nit is a simple process, it is possible to create numerous systems in a short time. Since trading is a profit-oriented process, our interest lies in the performance of the best systems created, not the number of systems created. How,\nthen, can performance be determined in order to select the optimal system? Looking at total profits is a major part of\nthis question, but other factors are perhaps as important, if not more. Consistency of profits is probably the most\ninfluential factor in performance. Basing performance evaluation on consistency of returns can provide better insight\nto our ultimate question: How will the system perform in the future?
Many measures exist to quantify trading system performance, but all have certain weaknesses. Some can be biased\nby one or two big trades, while some do not account for risk properly. Some are biased by correlation in returns,\nwhile others are not comparable over different periods. I have developed a new method of evaluating performance\nthat is more robust than current popular techniques. This method, which maintains the idea of measuring reward as\ncompared with risk, utilizes more advanced statistical techniques to quantify performance. Rather than simply\nlooking at returns independently, consistency of results through time will be the focal point of this new performance\nmethod.
The new measure, which I call the K-ratio, works with the equity curve of a system. An equity curve is simply a\nchart of accumulated profits through time. A mathematical model must be created for equity to calculate the\ncomponents of the new method. In the model, equity on any day is explained solely by its distance from the start of\nthe test."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-115-118-measuring-system-performance-by-lars-n-kestner-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-115-118-measuring-system-performance-by-lars-n-kestner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-115-118-measuring-system-performance-by-lars-n-kestner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-sidethe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (117): SIDEBAR: The K-ratio TradeStation Code"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE K-RATIO TRADESTATION CODE
The K-ratio system includes no buy or sell signals. When run simultaneously with other trade-generating systems, it prints\nthe K-ratio of the trade-generating system to the print log window.
System Name : K-ratio
VAR: Observation(0), Count(0), SumXY(0), SumX(0), SumY(0), SumXSqr(0);
VAR : Beta0(0), Beta1(0), SumResidSqr(0), SigmaRegress(0), StandardErrB1(0);
VAR: StandardErrB1Denom(0), YProjected(0), KRatio(0);
ARRAY: Equity[5000](0);
Observation = Observation+1;
Equity[Observation] = NetProfit + OpenPositionProfit; ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-117-sidebar-the-k-ratio-tradestation-code-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-117-sidebar-the-k-ratio-tradestation-code-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-117-sidebar-the-k-ratio-tradestation-code-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-topdown-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (124-129): Top Down Investing with S&P's Sam Stovall by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INTERVIEW
Top Down Investing\nwith S&P's Sam Stovall
Some wander onto Wall Street by mistake, while others seem destined to find\ntheir way there. Sam Stovall is a member of Standard & Poor's Investment\nPolicy Committee, editor of S&P's Industry Reports and author of Standard &\nPoor's Guide to Sector Investing. Stovall spoke with STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle on December 20, 1995, via telephone\ninterview about market cycles, sector investing and relative strength, among\nother topics.
I had all this data on industry indices, and anybody can find out when economic constractions and expansions\nstarted and ended, so I decided to determine what sectors performed the best during different periods of an\neconomic cycle. That's how I became involved in sector investment and analysis. -Sam Stovall"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-124-129-top-down-investing-with-s-p-s-sam-stovall-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-124-129-top-down-investing-with-s-p-s-sam-stovall-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-124-129-top-down-investing-with-s-p-s-sam-stovall-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-zenande-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (130-133): Zen and Emotional Control by Richard D. McCall"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
Zen And Emotional Control
This occupational psychologist explains that trading combines market knowledge\nand emotional discipline and that through meditation techniques, a trader can\ndevelop better emotional control.\nby Richard D. McCall
Traders in the futures and commodities markets can probably empathize with Mike Hoban, an aspiring basketball\nplayer from Strongsville, OH. In early 1995, fate dealt Mike an opportunity when his name was drawn from among\nmillions of other contestants in the Footlocker \""Million-Dollar Shot\"" sweepstakes. Winning the drawing entitled the\nwould-be hoopster the right to make one potentially life-changing three-point shot during the half-time festivities of\nthe NBA Rookie All-Star game in February. If he made the shot, he would walk away with a cool $1 million; if he\nmissed it, he would walk away empty-handed. It was that simple.
By his own admission, Mike is a \""pretty good\"" shooter, having had his share of three-pointers in his young career.\nIn fact, during his warm-up before the actual event, he was knocking them down with regular consistency. When it\ncame to the moment of truth, however, his shooting prowess seemed to leave him. Despite some of the best coaching\nand advice available (from Dan Majerle of the Phoenix Suns), Mike Hoban's shot fell short of the rim by almost\nthree feet, bringing a quick end to his dreams of millionaire status.
Why did Mike's well-practiced shooting \""system\"" fail him? The answer is simple and can be summarized in one\nword: Risk ! How can such a subtle obstacle as risk have such an overtly negative effect on the emotions, behavior\nand apparent skills - in other words, the inner game - of highly practiced individuals, be they basketball players or\nmarket traders? A brief examination of how we learn behavioral skills may shed some light on this subject."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-130-133-zen-and-emotional-control-by-richard-d-mccall-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-130-133-zen-and-emotional-control-by-richard-d-mccall-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-130-133-zen-and-emotional-control-by-richard-d-mccall-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-sidemax-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (132): SIDEBAR: Maximizing your Zen meditation experience"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MAXIMIZING YOUR ZEN MEDITATION EXPERIENCE
Here are eight pointers to help you make the most of your meditation exercise."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-132-sidebar-maximizing-your-zen-meditation-experience-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-132-sidebar-maximizing-your-zen-meditation-experience-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-132-sidebar-maximizing-your-zen-meditation-experience-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-trendli-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (134-136): Trendlines as a Technical Tool by Joe Luisi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NOVICE TRADER
Trendlines As A Technical\nTool
Applying trendlines to charts is a classic form of analysis. Here are some of the\nbasics of using this tool.\nby Joe Luisi
Trendlines, which are one of the most basic techniques in chart analysis, are lines drawn to portray market\ndirection and even project where the market is going. A trendline† connects either a series of highs or a series of\nlows in a trend. It can represent either support†, as in an uptrend line, or resistance†, as in a downtrend line.\n(Consolidations are marked by horizontal trendlines.) Trendlines can provide visually oriented traders with an idea of\nhow the market is doing, and they can also pinpoint changes in trend. Just as markets come in various types, so do\ntrendlines, and they can be used in various ways to examine different market situations. Let's take a look.
UPTREND LINE
The uptrend line is a diagonal line connecting significant lows and indicates when the market is moving higher and\nmaking a series of higher lows and higher highs. Figure 1 shows a series of three uptrend lines for the Swiss franc;\nin this chart, you can see that the franc is moving higher. Using an uptrend line on a long-term basis, we can connect\nthe lows made in December 1994 with the franc's activities in February 1995 and in May 1995.
These three points of time - December 1994, February 1995 and May 1995 - represent significant lows. On a\nlonger-term basis, this market is strong; it will move higher as long as this line is not broken. When the market\nrallies, you can draw another trendline to connect the lows of February and March, and as the market climbs, another\nuptrend line can be drawn."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-134-136-trendlines-as-a-technical-tool-by-joe-luisi-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-134-136-trendlines-as-a-technical-tool-by-joe-luisi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-134-136-trendlines-as-a-technical-tool-by-joe-luisi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-newhigh-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 (97-102): New Highs and New Lows by Tim Hayes"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INDICATORS
New Highs And New Lows
The number of new highs and new lows is a classic stock market indicator, and\nhere are ways that this market statistic can be modified to build a number of\nmarket indicators. By Tim Hayes, CMT
Market breadth and the health of the broad market as a whole can be measured in many ways. You can use\nadvance/decline lines and other indicators based on the number of advancing and declining stocks. You can use\nindicators based on advancing and declining volume. And you can use the number of stocks reaching new highs and\nnew lows. All are very useful, but let's focus on the latter approach; it's appealing for its simplicity, yet lends itself\nto a vast array of indicators that can improve your timing of major market turns.
WHAT THEY ARE
What are new highs and new lows? As used most commonly, a new high is a stock's 52-week high (its highest\nlevel in a year) and a new low is a stock's 52-week low (its lowest level in a year). The stocks that have reached new\nhighs and new lows during any given week are listed in Barron's , while The Wall Street Journal and Investor's\nBusiness Daily list each day's stocks that have closed at new highs and new lows. Since a stock listed in the daily\npublications on three successive days would be listed just once in the weekly publication, the historical data series\nhave different extremes and volatilities. This is evident when comparing the daily series plotted in the bottom of\nFigure 1 with the weekly series plotted in the bottom of Figure 2. But while the daily totals are lower and more\nvolatile than the weekly totals, their trends are consistent. And both series can be useful for timing the market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-97-102-new-highs-and-new-lows-by-tim-hayes-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-97-102-new-highs-and-new-lows-by-tim-hayes-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-97-102-new-highs-and-new-lows-by-tim-hayes-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c03-develop-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:3 Developing a Trading System by Greg Morris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NOVICE TRADER
Developing A Trading System
On the road to using technical analysis for trading, developing a trading system is\na logical step to take along the way. Here are some guidelines to develop a basic\nsystem.\nby Greg Morris
Beginners in the art of technical analysis using indicators should not recoil at the mention of a trading system,\nbecause a trading system is built upon one or more indicators used in a systematic fashion. The advantage is the user\ncan take the indicators beyond a seat-of-the-pants approach, develop some rules and test applications. Here, we will\ndeal with the development of a trading system from an idea built on Bollinger bands, a well-known indicator. The\ntrading system discussed is fairly straightforward, but the concepts can be applied to any degree of system\ncomplexity the reader desires.
A trading system means different things to different people. Some focus on finding the ultimate system that will\nfulfill their desire to gain great wealth from the marketplace. Others, however, just enjoy the art of building a system,\nthen tinkering with it endlessly. What, then, is the real purpose of a trading system? Personally, I design them to\nassist in making trading decisions in the markets, to help me overcome the demon of emotion, and to separate fact\nfrom fiction. In fact, this is what I, at least, believe technical analysis is all about. A trading system is a sound\napproach to discovering the technical approaches that work in the marketplace.
That said, a trader benefits by using a system to assist in making trading decisions. This system should be based on\nmethods and analysis that the trader fully subscribes to. It would be foolish to think that one could use a trading\nsystem based on a methodology that he or she didn't fully trust."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-developing-a-trading-system-by-greg-morris-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-developing-a-trading-system-by-greg-morris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-3-developing-a-trading-system-by-greg-morris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-thegmib-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (143-151): The GMI Bond Market System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The GMI Bond Market\nSystem by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
This S&C Contributing Editor details a trading system for predicting Treasury\nbond yields that uses Barron's Gold Mining Index (GMI) to signal changes. He\ncompares the performance of the trading system with his previous use of the\nS&P electric utility bond market system. In addition, he tests the GMI T-bond\nsystem for trading the Fidelity Government Securities Fund.
The connection between gold and interest rates is well known; gold prices are often used as a proxy for future\ninflation. Today's perception of future inflation rates causes bond prices to rise and fall. If inflation is perceived as\nrising in the future, then bond prices will decline and bond yields will rise. If inflation is perceived as declining in the\nfuture, then bond prices will rise and bond yields will fall. Although the current inflation rate is published by the\ngovernment on a monthly basis, this statistic relates to inflation in the past, not future inflation. The price of gold has\nhistorically been used as a store of value and as a predictor of future inflation. As gold prices climb, investors feel\nthat future inflation will rise. If gold prices decline, investors feel that future inflation will decline. But there are no\nformulas or rules to determine the exact relationship between gold and future inflation or between gold and the\ndirection of future interest rates.
This article will use the Barron's Gold Mining Index (GMI) as a bond price direction gauge. Various technical\nanalysis indicators on GMI will be created and tested in an attempt to formulate a system to predict the direction of\nlong-term interest rates."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-143-151-the-gmi-bond-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-143-151-the-gmi-bond-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-143-151-the-gmi-bond-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-timings-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (152-156): Timing Stock Buys with an Oscillator by Richard Goedde"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Timing Stock Buys\nWith An Oscillator by Richard Goedde
Use this oscillator to calculate buy points for a stock in an upward trend.
Oscillators are most useful when prices fluctuate up and down within a horizontal or flat channel (two parallel\nlines that contain prices). When the channel is sloping upward as recommended for successful investing, it is more\ndifficult to determine the point at which %R gives a valid buy signal. In investment analysis, an oscillator is a\nmathematical tool used to identify turning points in prices and is useful in timing the purchase and sale of a security.\nHere's how to use a specific oscillator, Williams' percentage range (%R), to time the purchase of stocks that are\ntrending upward. What is not covered here is using %R to time the sale of stocks because oscillators frequently give\nfalse sell signals in upward trending markets. Here, then, is the logic of %R and how its use can result in bigger\ngains and smaller losses over time, how %R can be calculated by computer spreadsheet if technical analysis software is not available, and finally, a formula that calculates an appropriate buy point using %R.
Two points should be emphasized. First of all, oscillators may be used in conjunction with any method an investor\nuses to select a particular stock to purchase. The purpose of the oscillator is to better time the purchase after the\ncompany has been selected. Second, although future price patterns may not repeat the past, stock prices tend to\nfluctuate within a range. An oscillator is useful in maximizing gains and minimizing losses regardless of the future\ndirection of prices."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-152-156-timing-stock-buys-with-an-oscillator-by-richard-goedde-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-152-156-timing-stock-buys-with-an-oscillator-by-richard-goedde-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-152-156-timing-stock-buys-with-an-oscillator-by-richard-goedde-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-thearms-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (157-159): The Arms Index by Bruce R. Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Arms Index by Bruce R. Faber
Here's the scoop on the Arms index, a stock market indicator that incorporates\nthe number of advancing and declining stocks with the advancing and declining\nvolume. The index is widely used as an indication of overbought and oversold\nconditions in the marketplace.
In general, most stock market technical indicators use the closing and daily range prices of a stock or an index for\ncalculations. However, some indicators use what may be considered internal measurements of market activity. This\ngroup of indicators is gauging the strength or weakness of the market from within by looking at the combined\nactivity of individual issues, such as the number of advances and declines. As a comparison, if you were observing a\nbattle and you could see that one by one individual soldiers were making headway or beginning to retreat, you could\nat some point make an educated guess as to the outcome of the battle, possibly well before the conclusion. For\nobservers of the stock market, one such popular analytical tool, the Arms index, measures if bulls or bears are\nwinning the battle.\nThe Arms index, named for its creator Richard W. Arms, has gone by many names and many abbreviations. The\nindex was originally introduced in Barron's in 1967 as the \""short-term trading index,\"" and even now you can find\nreferences to the index as \""TRIN.\"" The index's acceptance came quickly after introduction, and since then it has\nbecome a part of many trading strategies."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-157-159-the-arms-index-by-bruce-r-faber-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-157-159-the-arms-index-by-bruce-r-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-157-159-the-arms-index-by-bruce-r-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-onoptio-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (160-162): On Option Theta by Lawrence D. Cavanagh"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On Option Theta by Lawrence D. Cavanagh
Options traders use various measurements to calculate an option's risk, the\ncalculations of which are denoted by Greek letters. One example is theta, which\nis the measure of how much an option's price decreases for each day that passes.
A nyone who has ever traded options quickly becomes aware that if all things remain equal, then over time, the\nprice (or premium) of the option declines. Theta (q) is the Greek letter used to mark the decay of an option premium\nover time. This price decay is nonlinear (that is, it changes over time), and most of the time, it accelerates as the\nexpiration date approaches. For an option buyer, theta can indicate the daily cost of holding the option. For an option\nwriter, theta can indicate the daily profit that accrues from being short the option. Understanding the whys and\nwherefores of theta thus becomes important, and here we explore why option premiums decay the way they do.
AT-THE-MONEY THETA
An option's total premium consists of its intrinsic value and its time value. Intrinsic value is what the option is\nworth if exercised immediately. If positive, it is the difference between the price of the underlying tradable (stock,\nbond or commodity) and the strike price. Time value is the part of option premium that exceeds intrinsic value,\nbased on the probability of the underlying stock going through the strike price and from the profit or loss potential caused by the assumed dispersion of future price outcomes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-160-162-on-option-theta-by-lawrence-d-cavanagh-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-160-162-on-option-theta-by-lawrence-d-cavanagh-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-160-162-on-option-theta-by-lawrence-d-cavanagh-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-atrend-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (163-167): A Trend Channel Trade by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Trend Channel Trade by Thomas Bulkowski
Here's a trade that combines fundamentals, trend channels, pattern recognition\nand volume.
Selecting a stock to trade means more than just throwing darts. For my own trading, I use statistically positioned\ntrend channels, a method that allows me to define the boundaries of a trend. When dealing with trend channels,\nyou're faced with a declining stock that you still want to purchase. What makes you so sure that the stock will turn\naround and climb instead of plummeting? Here's a top-down approach to trading the trend channel, using market trend analysis as a starting point and technical analysis to determine buy and sell points, illustrating a trend channel\nwith the resulting trade.
TRENDS AND INDUSTRY SELECTION
The hardest thing to do when I first started investing was to sell a security. Now, I find that both buying and selling\nare difficult when trading the trend channel. In buying securities in the channel, you are betting that the stock will\ncease its downward plummet, reverse direction and go up again. But there is no assurance that it will do so.\nHowever, the channel boundaries give the investor excellent indications of where to buy and sell: All you need to do\nis to pull the trigger. I play the trend channel by buying at the lower channel boundary and selling at the higher\nboundary, on one cross of the channel. Simple."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-163-167-a-trend-channel-trade-by-thomas-bulkowski-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-163-167-a-trend-channel-trade-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-163-167-a-trend-channel-trade-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-thebene-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (168-171): The Benefits of Diversification by Lars N. Kestner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Benefits of Diversification by Lars N. Kestner
The question of how to increase returns while decreasing risk has fascinated\ninvestors for decades; after all, the goal is of trading or investing is to maximize\nreturn per unit of risk accepted. Here's an introduction to the benefits of\ndiversification.
The first major progress in portfolio management was made by Harry Markowitz, 1990 Nobel Prize co-winner in economics. Some 40 years ago, Markowitz began asking questions on the nature of risk and reward. Looking at\nstreams of cash flows, he attempted to quantify the relationship through mathematics. Simply put, Markowitz began\nby pondering the following question:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-168-171-the-benefits-of-diversification-by-lars-n-kestner-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-168-171-the-benefits-of-diversification-by-lars-n-kestner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-168-171-the-benefits-of-diversification-by-lars-n-kestner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-thelone-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (172-175): The Lone Trader by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Lone Trader by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
The stresses built into the profession of trading isolates traders from their natural emotional supports. Here are some\nways to ensure those pressures don't reach a boiling point.
If you were to make a movie of this man's life, it would be filled with scenes of him surrounded by all the people\nin his life: his adoring wife and three children, his supportive parents, his many friends and associates and his wider\nassociations in the community where he is regularly elected to head committees and organizations. That's why I was\nsurprised when Jack confessed, \""There are times I feel so alone.\"" Of all the people I would have expected to make\nthis heart-wrenching confession, Jack is not one of them.
How can such a successful man whose life is full of supportive relationships feel alone? Jack is a trader, that's how.
WHAT CREATES LONELINESS IN A TRADER?
What creates loneliness in a trader? The answer lies in a single word: drawdown , a phenomenon that is integral to the business of professional trading. Just as the finest physician eventually has to face the death of a patient, as a\ntrader, you know you will eventually have to face a series of losses. When that happens, even the most accomplished\ntraders can lose self-confidence during those drawdown periods that never seem to end."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-172-175-the-lone-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-172-175-the-lone-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-172-175-the-lone-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-predict-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (176-181): Predicting Major Market Moves by Gregory N. Hight"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Predicting Major Market Moves by Gregory N. Hight
Here's a statistical method that compares the movement of the Standard & Poor's\n500 index with the changes of interest rates. In addition, the author explains\nstatistical tests that help validate the reliability of the relationships as well as a\ntechnique to identify anomalies, which may be used to anticipate changes in the\nS&P 500.
Major trend changes may be signaled when market activity takes a distinct turn from a previous pattern. The\nrelationship between changes in interest rates and changes in the Standard & Poor's 500 index can be monitored by\nusing change in the log of price as the preferred data. Methods exist to detect nonstationarity (that is, the rules driving\nthe price movement seem to change randomly) and serial dependencies (that is, today's price is dependent upon\nyesterday's price), which may render data useless and so inferences from them meaningless. After these pretests\nconfirm the relative health of the data, regression analysis can be applied to establish a range within which change in\nthe log of price data is expected to fall. Finally, probabilities using the binomial distribution can confirm the presence\nof an anomaly, ultimately forecasting the late 1994 upturn in the S&P 500 index."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-176-181-predicting-major-market-moves-by-gregory-n-hight-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-176-181-predicting-major-market-moves-by-gregory-n-hight-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-176-181-predicting-major-market-moves-by-gregory-n-hight-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-sidecon-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (177): SIDEBAR: Converting Absolute Data to Change in Log of Price"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CONVERTING ABSOLUTE DATA TO\nCHANGE IN LOG OF PRICE
Sidebar Figure 1 is a sample of weekly interest rate and S&P 500 index data and the formula used to convert\nabsolute interest rate data to changes in logs. Formulas first calculate the log of price and then subtract the\nweek-earlier value from the current week value. Change in log of interest rates and the S&P index is the data\nused throughout.
ASSESSING STATIONARITY
1. Divide the range of data into five to 10 equally sized bins so that each observation falls into a bin. The two\nbins at the upper and lower extremes of the range should be defined so they are unbounded on the side of the\nbin away from the mean."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-177-sidebar-converting-absolute-data-to-change-in-log-of-price-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-177-sidebar-converting-absolute-data-to-change-in-log-of-price-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-177-sidebar-converting-absolute-data-to-change-in-log-of-price-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c04-learnin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:4 (182-189): Learning Through Trial and Error: Mark Boucher by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Learning Through Trial And Error - Mark Boucher
I started off totally technically based, opposite from what investors normally start off with.\nWhen I started, there was a lot more material on technical analysis than I could find on\nfundamental analysis. Most of it wasn't very good, but I liked technical analysis because you\ncould test it. - Mark Boucher
Hedge fund manager Mark Boucher would be the first person to tell you that you have to have control of your own\ninvestments. And of course, once you do have control of your own investments, how much more you have to learn\nabout them. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Boucher, who publishes Portfolio\nStrategy Letter, about his experiences in the market, how he analyzes those markets and what traders and investors\nshould look at and study in order to understand those markets, via telephone interview on January 25, 1996."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-182-189-learning-through-trial-and-error-mark-boucher-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-182-189-learning-through-trial-and-error-mark-boucher-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-4-182-189-learning-through-trial-and-error-mark-boucher-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (195-203): Trading with a Variable Position Size by Tom O'Malley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading With A Variable Position Size by Tom O'Malley
Once a position has been put on, some traders will hold it at a constant size throughout the life of the trade, while other traders will vary the size. Which is better?
Once a trade has been initiated, some traders maintain a constant position size throughout the life of the trade,\nwhile others believe they can enhance returns by varying their position size according to predefined rules. One philosophy dictates that a significant price move in the profitable direction indicates a smaller likelihood of further profitable price moves and the position size should be decreased to lock in partial profits, while the other states that prices moving in the profitable direction indicates confirmation of the trend and the position size should be increased to take advantage of further profitable price moves. Which is right?
Should the position size be decreased or increased? If the position size is to be decreased, referred to as\nprofit-taking , how do we choose the prices at which to take partial profits and just how much profit should be taken at each such price? If the position size is to be increased, referred to as pyramiding , should we also have some scheme for subsequently liquidating the pyramid? At what prices during the life of the trade should we increase our position size, and at what prices should we liquidate?
These questions have no obvious answers. What we need is a methodology for determining the optimal position size at every price level throughout the life of a trade. Here is such a methodology and how to apply it to real-world trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-195-203-trading-with-a-variable-position-size-by-tom-o-malley-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-195-203-trading-with-a-variable-position-size-by-tom-o-malley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-195-203-trading-with-a-variable-position-size-by-tom-o-malley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-sidemon-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (197-199): SIDEBAR: Monte Carlo Simulation"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
Let us assume we have a specified string of profits and losses — for example, the 1985-89 string of profits and losses for\nthe 25-market portfolio used in the article. The Monte Carlo simulation is the technique we use to determine the probability\nof losing a specified number of dollars when trading this string of profits and losses before reaching a specified profit goal.\nThe technique simulates how a trader would fare if he were to sequentially place trades that were randomly selected from\nthe specified listing of profits and losses."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-197-199-sidebar-monte-carlo-simulation-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-197-199-sidebar-monte-carlo-simulation-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-197-199-sidebar-monte-carlo-simulation-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-thevolu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (204-206): The Volume Indicators by Bruce R. Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Volume Indicators by Bruce R. Faber
In spite of its importance, much less is written about volume than about price. Here's an introduction on the subject for the novices and a refresher for the veterans.
To technical analysis, volume is as important as price. Some analysts would even claim that volume is more\nimportant of the two. But price without volume is like Standard without Poor's; by itself, price represents only half of the necessary information. At the very least, what volume is doing in relation to price should always be taken into consideration when making trading decisions.
On most charts, the daily volume is depicted by a vertical line/bar directly below the corresponding price\npoint, bar or candlestick. In Figure 1, which shows Intel Corp. [INTC], volume lines can be seen at the bottom. The relative height of the volume line is usually compared only with the other volume bars within the\nperiod covered by that particular chart."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-204-206-the-volume-indicators-by-bruce-r-faber-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-204-206-the-volume-indicators-by-bruce-r-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-204-206-the-volume-indicators-by-bruce-r-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-eventtr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (207-211): Event Trading in the Bond Market by Ben Warwick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Event Trading In The Bond Market by Ben Warwick
The financial markets frequently react with large price movements after the government and private agencies release their economic reports. Are there any reliable patterns to the way a market reacts to the news? One money manager decided to find out, and here, he shows how monitoring the reaction to those reports can be a profitable endeavor.
Markets are driven by the fundamentals. Stock traders look at earnings reports and commodity traders look at crop estimates. Bond market participants track economic reports, issued by government and private agencies, to estimate the strength in the economy that will ultimately drive interest rates. As traders scramble to decipher the meaning behind the most recent government reports, markets frequently exhibit greater than average volatility. These occasions can mark the beginning, or culmination of major trends. But how can traders profit from these market reactions to economic data announcements? Here's a new trading methodology called event trading , which is a systematic way to capture the large price moves commonly associated with economic data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-207-211-event-trading-in-the-bond-market-by-ben-warwick-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-207-211-event-trading-in-the-bond-market-by-ben-warwick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-207-211-event-trading-in-the-bond-market-by-ben-warwick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-sidesta-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (210): SIDEBAR: Statistical Primer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""STATISTICAL PRIMER
Two samples are used in the analysis of event-driven breakouts:
Sample 1: Market returns with event-driven breakouts removed
Sample 2: All event-driven breakouts.
To determine if sample 2 yields consistently higher returns than sample 1, a two-sided t- test is used:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-210-sidebar-statistical-primer-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-210-sidebar-statistical-primer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-210-sidebar-statistical-primer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-preside-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (212-214): Presidential Parties and the Stock Market by Dave Dorgan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Presidential Parties And The Stock Market by Dave Dorgan
Is there a relationship between the Presidential party in power and the subsequent performance of the stock market? Before you take a guess, here are the facts.
Conventional wisdom would have one believe that the stock market should perform better under a fiscally\nconservative (Republican) US President than under a socially liberal (Democratic) US President. Now that we are in yet another Presidential election year, I wanted to know if the political affiliations of the President had a long-term impact on the stock market's performance. So I decided to look at some historical data.
THE DATA
I looked at how the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) performed in each four-year Presidential term from 1917 to the present. The emphasis of this study was not on the President in power himself, but on the four-year term of the political party in the White House, regardless of whether a specific President served a full four-year term in office. A President has left office early four times since 1917 - Warren G. Harding and Franklin D. Roosevelt died of illness, John F. Kennedy was assassinated, and Richard M. Nixon resigned. In these four instances, the Vice President who assumed the Presidential office was of the same political party and I made the assumption in each case he was committed to carrying on the policies of his predecessor.
Using this data, I calculated the DJIA's four-year return from the February after the start of the term through the\nJanuary that the next term started from 1917 through 1995 (Figure 1). For the sake of this study, I treated President Bill Clinton's current three years as a full term. For my calculations, I used monthly high, low and close data that was generated from daily high, low and close data by Omega Research's TradeStation. Interestingly, over the last 79 years there were 10 Republican terms and 10 Democratic terms, which provided a good dataset for comparisons."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-212-214-presidential-parties-and-the-stock-market-by-dave-dorgan-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-212-214-presidential-parties-and-the-stock-market-by-dave-dorgan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-212-214-presidential-parties-and-the-stock-market-by-dave-dorgan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-livingt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (215-221): Living the Dream: Trader Gary Smith by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Living The Dream: Trader Gary Smith
I always dreamed of trading for a living and I finally have\nachieved that, but never in the way I had imagined. I always envisioned myself as one of these Jesse Livermore-tape reader types, but it's been very different. - Gary Smith
In this day and age of computers and high technology, trader Gary Smith is certainly an anomaly, as he uses no computer, disapproves of mechanical systems and simply uses the data off CNBC with which to trade. How does he do it? How has he done it? His recently published book, Live the Dream By Profitably Day Trading Stock Futures, explains. To find out more about this unique trader, STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle conducted a telephone interview with Smith on February 20, 1996."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-215-221-living-the-dream-trader-gary-smith-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-215-221-living-the-dream-trader-gary-smith-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-215-221-living-the-dream-trader-gary-smith-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-thegold-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (222-228): The Gold and Silver Bond Fund System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Gold And Silver Bond Fund System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Building on his previous Gmi system article, this Contributing Editor develops a system using the Philadelphia Stock Exchange daily gold and silver stock index to trade a long-term government bond fund.
Last month, I examined the relationship between Barron's Gold Mining Index (GMI) and the 30-year Treasury bond rates. A system was developed to predict the weekly direction of the 30-year T-bond rate using the GMI. One of the problems encountered in developing that system was that the GMI is only available from Barron's on a weekly basis. While a system using weekly data is certainly valuable for filtering out daily price fluctuation noise, significant changes in prices or events during the week cannot be addressed by the system until the weekend. This\none-week gap in the ability to take action carries with it significant economic risk or the loss of opportunity.
Here, I will build on last month's article and develop a system using the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX) daily gold and silver stock index (XAU) to trade a long-term government bond fund."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-222-228-the-gold-and-silver-bond-fund-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-222-228-the-gold-and-silver-bond-fund-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-222-228-the-gold-and-silver-bond-fund-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-realwor-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (229-232): Real-World Option Pricing by Lawrence D. Cavanagh"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Real-World Option Pricing by Lawrence D. Cavanagh
Option models calculate premiums or the prices of options on the assumption that volatility is a constant. Here's how stock and index price changes are distributed in the real world and how the market prices options.
Are the prices of options accurately reflected by option models? Let's contrast the distribution of stock index\nmovements with the log-normal distribution postulated in most option models. We can attempt to understand the way prices actually move, and also why the market has a tendency to price options so that those struck farther from the market have implied volatilities that are higher, forming what is referred to as a smile pattern. I will present two examples of the smile pattern, one based on the implied volatilities of a group of equity options and the other applied to Intel [INTC] options. Understanding why this pattern exists can help option traders determine when they are considering a specific option trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-229-232-real-world-option-pricing-by-lawrence-d-cavanagh-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-229-232-real-world-option-pricing-by-lawrence-d-cavanagh-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-229-232-real-world-option-pricing-by-lawrence-d-cavanagh-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-sidecom-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (230): SIDEBAR: Comparison between actual price changes and normal distribution."",""caption-linebreaks"":""COMPARISON BETWEEN ACTUAL PRICE\nCHANGES AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
The average weekly natural log changes in the Standard & Poor's 500 index from April 1986 through December\n1995 was measured and the standard deviation of these changes calculated. The results show an average weekly log\nchange of 0.19% (annualized to 9.88% by multiplying by 52) and a weekly standard deviation of these changes of\n2.0% (annualized to 14.42% by multiplying by the square root of 52). The entire range of price changes was then\nnormalized by creating a series in which the mean is equal to zero and the standard deviation is equal to 1 (by\nsubtracting 0.19% from each weekly change and then dividing the results by 2.0%). Using Excel's frequency\nfunction, the number of times these different-sized moves occurred was calculated and then these results divided by\n493 (the total number of weeks) to get the actual percentage of times these moves occurred. -L.D.C."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-230-sidebar-comparison-between-actual-price-changes-and-normal-distribution-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-230-sidebar-comparison-between-actual-price-changes-and-normal-distribution-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-230-sidebar-comparison-between-actual-price-changes-and-normal-distribution-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c05-chartin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:5 (233-236): Charting Equity by Joe Luisi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Charting Equity by Joe Luisi
Technicians apply technical analysis to charts for trading decisions. This technician applies similar techniques to his trading system results.
When asked what the key to long-term trading success is, successful traders always reply that money\nmanagement is foremost. Professional traders often advise trading hopefuls that 70% of their time should be spent on money management and 30% on searching for low-risk, high-profit trading opportunities. Sounds reasonable, right? It does, but there's a flaw in this reasoning. Information on money management, what it is and how to use it can be hard to come by. Few traders understand or use money management techniques. The average trader feels that a successful system can make them wealthy without their understanding or using money management. There are many systems that are 80% profitable, yet lose money due to overtrading and bad risk-to-reward ratios. A day trading system with nine consecutive profitable days making $100 a day can be wiped out with a $900 loss on day 10; thus, the system technically may have a 90% winning record, but in the end you still end up making no money.
Here are several techniques that you can use to get a better understanding of money management. The same techniques that a trader uses to analyze the markets can also be used to analyze trading. Let us analyze four money management charts to determine how well your trading is faring."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-233-236-charting-equity-by-joe-luisi-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-233-236-charting-equity-by-joe-luisi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-5-233-236-charting-equity-by-joe-luisi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-seasona-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6 (241-243) Seasonality And The S&P 500 by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Looking at the seasonality of the stock market from different viewpoints can give you new insight into an old concept. Here's a look at the best and worst months in which to invest as well as some suggested investing guidelines. By Mark Vakkur, M.D.
One of the strongest arguments against the random walk theory is the observation that the stock\nmarket tends to make most of its gains during certain months that are far from randomly\ndistributed. As Yale Hirsch points out in The 1996 Stock Trader’s Almanac, if an investor were to have\ninvested $10,000 in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index in May through October since 1950 but switched to\ncash for the remainder of each year, that investment would have grown to $15,285 by 1994; however, if the\ninvestor had invested that $10,000 every November through April since 1950, that investment would have\ncompounded to $173,788 — quite a difference.
When I first studied seasonality, I wondered if its effect were strong enough and consistent enough to\ngenerate reliable trading signals. The answer to this question, as it turned out, is an emphatic yes. Here, I\nwill explore the development of a simple trading system that uses seasonality to generate buy and sell signals\nfor the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. In using these signals, a trader could have generated substantially\ngreater returns than buy and hold with less risk — but note this is offered more to illustrate the power of\nseasonality than as a complete trading system in itself. As with any indicator, seasonality should be used\nin conjunction with other indicators before actual capital is placed at risk."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-241-243-seasonality-and-the-s-p-500-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-241-243-seasonality-and-the-s-p-500-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-241-243-seasonality-and-the-s-p-500-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-thederi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6 (253-257) The Derivative Moving Average by Adam White"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here's a strategic variation of the tried-and-true simple moving average that uses a moving average for entry signals and the trend analysis index for exit signals. By Adam White
To get that all-important edge over other market participants, the creative investor must use methods that other investors are not. Thus, as a technician I am always looking for different twists on reliable indicators and trading\nstrategies. Let me explain the derivative moving average, a new twist to one of the most reliable and best-known\nindicators of all, the simple moving averageY´.
Moving averages are widely used because they are simple to calculate, intuitive to apply and, most important for\nthe trend-follower, allow profits to run while cutting losses. However, moving averages also suffer from two\nimportant flaws when used in a traditional trend-following capacity. First, consider the common trading strategy\nin which the trader enters into a position when the market crosses a moving average in the desired direction and\nexits when the market crosses a moving average in the opposite direction. Markets typically spend most of the\ntime moving sideways, not trending. In this case, the market can cross the moving average a number of times in\nquick succession, producing a string of whipsawY´ losses. Call this the whipsaw flaw .
The second flaw of moving averages is due to their natural lag. By definition, a simple moving average trails price\nby a period equal to half its length, and so, the market can move quite a distance after reversing from its extreme\nto the price at which it crosses the moving average. This can give back much of the equity earned by the trade.\nCall this the equity surrender flaw . Figure 1 illustrates these two limitations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-253-257-the-derivative-moving-average-by-adam-white-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-253-257-the-derivative-moving-average-by-adam-white-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-253-257-the-derivative-moving-average-by-adam-white-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-sidemet-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6 (255): SIDEBAR: MetaStock syntax - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""METASTOCK SYNTAX - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-255-sidebar-metastock-syntax-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-255-sidebar-metastock-syntax-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-255-sidebar-metastock-syntax-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-employm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6 (262-264) Employment As A Bond Market Forecast by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How good a barometer is the monthly US employment report for the bond market? One analyst decided to find out. By Alex Saitta
The US employment report that the federal government releases on a monthly basis contains an assortment of\ndata on many different sectors of the economy, so it is known as an excellent barometer of the prior month's\neconomic activity. Market volatility supports the significance of this report. The day the report is released, the\nTreasury bond futures' trading range is larger than it is on the release dates of other economic reports. In the last\neight years, the size of the T-bond's trading range has averaged 44 ticks on the release day of the employment\nreport. By comparison, on the day that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been released, the average T-bond\nrange is 36 ticks, for retail sales numbers 33 ticks, and on the release day of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the\nTreasury bond's trading range has averaged 32 ticks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-262-264-employment-as-a-bond-market-forecast-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-262-264-employment-as-a-bond-market-forecast-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-262-264-employment-as-a-bond-market-forecast-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-sidebme-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6 (268): SIDEBAR: MetaStock and Indicators - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""MetaStock 4.5 formulas - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-268-sidebar-metastock-and-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-268-sidebar-metastock-and-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-268-sidebar-metastock-and-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-sideind-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6 (270): SIDEBAR: Indicators - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""INDICATORS
The following steps can be used to implement the on-balance\nvolume disparity indicator and the negative volume\ndisparity indicator in Microsoft Excel. The example uses\ndaily data for the stock J.P. Morgan [JPM]. Because Holt’s\narticle “Enhancing on-balance and negative volume” uses\nweekly data for the NYSE Composite Index, the same\nparameters are used here. However, it is recommended that\nthe parameters be reviewed for use for daily data of indi-vidual\nstocks. In addition, using a relative strength line as an\nindication of an upward trend is also recommended as an\ninitial filter for trading individual stocks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-270-sidebar-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-270-sidebar-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-270-sidebar-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-sustain-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6 (279-281): Sustaining The Trader's Momentum by Ari Kiev, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""This psychiatrist, who teaches strategies for successful trading, explores various strategies for overcoming\nobstacles to continued success.\nby Ari Kiev, M.D.
It's not uncommon for traders to blow up after successful runs just as they're about to reach their financial\ntargets. This phenomenon seems to be related to the increase in tension and anxiety as a goal is approached. This\noccurs because success represents entering into the realm of the unknown and activates fears about failing and\nabout the impossibility of success. As a consequence, the increased anxiety may result in self-destructive behavior and a succession of losing trades, bringing the trader back to square one.\nWhat can you do to sustain a series of successful trades or successful weeks or months of trading so you can move\non to new levels of performance?
What can you do to perform at a level commensurate with your natural\nabilities? These strategies have proven especially effective in helping traders to move to new and sustained levels\nof high performance trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-279-281-sustaining-the-trader-s-momentum-by-ari-kiev-m-d-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-279-281-sustaining-the-trader-s-momentum-by-ari-kiev-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-279-281-sustaining-the-trader-s-momentum-by-ari-kiev-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-thehigh-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6(248-252) The High, Tight Flag by Greg Kuhn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""During a strong trend, a stock will still spend some time in a consolidation period before the next run. Here's a chart pattern that can be found during a consolidation of a strong stock. By Greg Kuhn
In most cases, when a stock skyrockets 40%, 50% or even 60% in just a few weeks, it's considered overextended and prone to a deep correction. This is true especially if the rally - often referred to as a climax run or parabolic spike - occurs at the end of an advance that developed over many months. Sometimes the situations could even be the beginning of an even larger advance, and often, such opportunities are forewarned by a particular chart pattern called the high, tight flag.
The high, tight flag pattern is a rare formation characterized by its occurrence after an advance that takes a stock up approximately 100% to 120% in just four to eight weeks, less in some cases. Following such a run, the stock usually corrects in a tight, sideways pattern lasting anywhere from three to six weeks, retracing no more than 10% to 20% of the advance. Many stocks can rise another 100% or more after the formation. The high, tight flag pattern consolidates an advance that often occurs after a stock has established a substantial base. The stock\ntypically spends time in a well-contained base formation lasting from many months to many years. Then, some important news event usually emerges to lift the stock out of its dormancy - for example, an exceptionally strong earnings surprise or perhaps word that a major investor is taking a large position in the stock."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-248-252-the-high-tight-flag-by-greg-kuhn-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-248-252-the-high-tight-flag-by-greg-kuhn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-248-252-the-high-tight-flag-by-greg-kuhn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-statist-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6(258-261): Statistics Of Chaotic Markets by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., C.T.A."",""caption-linebreaks"":""For those of us who have had \""chaotic\"" days - when everything was topsy-turvy and nothing went the way it should have - maybe the problem isn't in those days;\nmaybe it's in what we expect. - by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., C.T.A.
Have you ever had a truly chaotic day? One in which nothing was normal? Probably so. In trading and life in\ngeneral, ample evidence exists that chaos does occur. There are times when things happen far outside the range of what we expect. But we expect things to be \""statistically\"" normal.
Maybe there's a problem in what we expect. Our research and modeling of markets clearly indicate that they are not statistically normal. Yet for decades, economists have held that markets are efficient and therefore follow the statistics of a random walkY´.
This can be mathematically proven to be untrue. One way, presented elegantly by Edgar Peters in Chaos and Order in Capital Markets , is to compute the Hurst exponent, which measures the nature of any time series, such as a market. This exponent is 0.5 for a random series, which has no correlation between past and future values. When this exponent is greater than 0.5, we have a trending time series, one with fractal noise. Peters shows that the Standard & Poor's 500 index has a Hurst exponent of 0.78, proving that this market does not follow the normal distribution taught in statistics courses and used in many option evaluation programs. The normal distribution is part of a type of statistics called Gaussian statistics.
What Peters refers to as fractal noise is perhaps better referred to as fractal patterns . These patterns have an order to them and are described by fractal geometry. Fractal geometry was brought to public scrutiny by\nmathematician Benoit B. Mandelbrot, who pointed out that Gaussian statistics only describe time series with\ncontinuous derivatives, meaning there are no vertical gaps. So when he looked at cotton prices, which do have vertical gaps, Mandelbrot pointed out that the gaps meant that Gaussian statistics could not be used in that situation; a branch of statistics called Paretian statistics had to be used instead. He went on to show how these statistics, rather than the Gaussian, could be used to describe cotton prices and their fractal nature."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-258-261-statistics-of-chaotic-markets-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-c-t-a-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-258-261-statistics-of-chaotic-markets-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-c-t-a-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-258-261-statistics-of-chaotic-markets-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-c-t-a-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-enhanci-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6(265-270) Enhancing On-Balance And Negative Volume - by Phillip C. Holt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here's a new technique that can be used to identify when on-balance volume or negative volume is indicating something notable about the direction of the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. If your objective is to keep the bear away from the door, this may help. By Phillip C. Holt
Analysts have mined the relationship between price and volume for decades. Joseph Granville,\nMarc Chaikin, Richard Arms and Norman Fosback, to name only a few of technical analysis'\nall-stars, have studied the relationship in depth. On-balance volume, accumulation/distribution,\nease of movement and negative volume are all methods these technicians developed or\npopularized to quantify the relationship. Each of these methods produces a series of values that\ncan be compared over time with price to determine divergence or confirmation, with resulting\nanalytical insight. Although the methods at issue vary widely, these analysts agree that valuable\ninformation about price movement can be found in the relationship between price and volume.
ADAPTING BOLLINGER'S %B
Certain techniques popularized by John Bollinger can be used to identify divergence between\nprice and on-balance or negative volume. Ordinarily, market analysts use visual comparison of\nprice and price-volume indicators to identify divergence, but visually identifying the extent of\nthe divergence can be especially tricky. Thus, a method that quantifies divergence so it can be\nused for objective decision-making is necessary.
John Bollinger popularized the Bollinger bands channel-building technique that is often included\nin technical analysis software today. The technique constructs a line that is two standard\ndeviations above and below a 20-period simple moving average (SMA) of price (see Figure 1).\nBollinger estimates that 85% of a security's daily closing prices will fall within the channel. The\nlength of the moving average and the number of standard deviations can be adjusted to\ncircumstance (for example, weekly or monthly prices)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-265-270-enhancing-on-balance-and-negative-volume-by-phillip-c-holt-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-265-270-enhancing-on-balance-and-negative-volume-by-phillip-c-holt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-265-270-enhancing-on-balance-and-negative-volume-by-phillip-c-holt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c06-jimbian-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:6(271-278: Jim Bianco Of Arbor Trading by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""There is no shortage of market analysts in this world, but as Jim Bianco, the director of research for Arbor Trading, can tell you, if you want to make a difference you have to look at things with a different vantage point. Bianco's career in the markets began in equity research, but eventually, he changed his focus to the fixed-income arena. Stocks & Commodities talked with Bianco on why his interest shifted from stocks to bonds, why bonds are out of fashion at the moment, and how he tracks the players that he thinks make the real difference on where interest rates are headed. By Thom Hartle
So how did you get started in the business?
Well, I'm from Chicago, and because it's home to the big futures exchanges, just about everyone is interested in the futures markets, especially when you're in school. The ultimate summer job, at least when I was a kid, was\ndefinitely to be a runner down on the floor of the exchange.
And were you a runner?
Yes, back in 1976, and from there I started watching the markets. During college I traded my own futures\naccount, and I had a very educational experience.
Tell me about it.
I played the grain rally of 1983 and I pyramidedY´ $2,500 into about $35,000 - and then pyramided that right\ninto a deficit of about $1,500. I made just about every classic mistake I could. In fact, on the way up, I was so\nsmug, I thought I was smarter than everybody else, I was thinking about what color Porsche I should get - you\nknow.
That feeling of invincibility?
You know! On the way down, of course, I panicked and sold out at the very bottom. I'll never forget having to go\nto my parents and explaining to them that I had a $1,500 deficit in my account."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-271-278-jim-bianco-of-arbor-trading-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-271-278-jim-bianco-of-arbor-trading-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-6-271-278-jim-bianco-of-arbor-trading-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-hiddend-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (285-289): Hidden Divergence by Barbara Star, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Divergence, which is a term that technicians use when two or more averages or indices fail to show confirming trends, is one of the mainstays of technical analysis. Here's a new way to use oscillators and divergence as well as methods to locate entry levels during a trend. By Barbara Star, Ph.D.
Most technical indicators mirror or confirm price movement. When price moves up, the\nindicator moves up; when price moves down, the indicator moves down. When prices peak, the\nindicator peaks; and when prices bottom, the indicator bottoms. Sometimes, however, a\ndiscrepancy occurs between price and indicator movement. That discrepancy is known as\nnonconfirmation and can be seen most clearly on overbought or oversold indicators as well as\non indicators that move above or below a zero line.
Many traders only learn to recognize the type of nonconfirmation that occurs at market tops and\nbottoms, which is the classic divergence. But there are other forms of nonconfirmation I call\nhidden divergence (HD) that, when present, offer additional profit potential.
Hidden divergences are the opposite of classic divergences. Classic divergence looks for lower\nlow prices accompanied by higher indicator values at price bottoms and higher high prices\naccompanied by lower indicator values at price tops. Hidden divergences, on the other hand,\nseek higher price lows accompanied by lower indicator values during up moves and lower price\nhighs accompanied by higher indicator values during down moves. Most hidden divergences\nsignal continuation moves in the direction of the prevailing trend."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-285-289-hidden-divergence-by-barbara-star-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-285-289-hidden-divergence-by-barbara-star-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-285-289-hidden-divergence-by-barbara-star-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-analpha-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (290-293): An Alpha Indicator for Bonds by Frank Ritchie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Alpha measures the performance of a stock compared with the stock market. Here, the alpha between a cyclical stock group and the Treasury bond market is used as an indicator for trading T-bonds to signal trends. By Frank Ritchie
The alphaY´ of a stock has long been used as a tool for portfolio selection. Investors want to\nknow if the market's return was a certain number and, all things being equal, what the stock's return should be. Further, if the stock market was unchanged, would the stock's return be\npositive or negative? The stock's alpha is the statistic that answers this question. Alpha is derived\nby linear regression using the one-month return for an individual stock as the dependent\nvariable and the one-month return for a market index (such as the Standard & Poor's 500 index)\nas the independent variable.
IMAGINE THIS
To calculate this, first imagine the two sets of returns plotted on a chart with each observation\nplotted as a dot. The dots would be scattered, but a line could be plotted through the dots that\nbest fits the trend of the dots. This line is called the regression line . All straight lines can be\ndescribed by the formula Y = a +bX , where a is the y- intercept (the value of y when x is\nequal to zero) and b is the slope of the line. Returning to our example of analyzing a stock's\nreturn, the y -intercept term from the regression is the stock's alpha. Therefore:\nOne-month return (stock) = Alpha + Beta (one-month return for S&P 500)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-290-293-an-alpha-indicator-for-bonds-by-frank-ritchie-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-290-293-an-alpha-indicator-for-bonds-by-frank-ritchie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-290-293-an-alpha-indicator-for-bonds-by-frank-ritchie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-sidethe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (290-293): SIDEBAR: The Alpha Indicator - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE ALPHA INDICATOR - Technical Analysis, Inc.
To build your own alpha indicator in Microsoft Excel, use the following steps. Column A should\nbe the date, column B the Treasury bond futures data and column C is the Fidelity Select\nChemical Fund data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-290-293-sidebar-the-alpha-indicator-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-290-293-sidebar-the-alpha-indicator-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-290-293-sidebar-the-alpha-indicator-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-threetu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (294-297) Three Turns On The Pivot Point by William Greenspan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.14:7 (294-297) Three Turns On The Pivot Point by William Greenspan
This floor trader updates his previous article\non the pivot point technique with additional\ninsight on how he uses the method for day\ntrading S&P futures.
Several years ago, I wrote an article for STOCKS & COMMODITIES describing how professional floor traders use the pivot technique. Although the pivot technique I described works in all futures markets, it responds best to markets with a wide daily trading range, such as the Standard & Poor's 500 index, Treasury bonds, soybeans, wheat and corn. Since then, I have received many queries on how to incorporate the data from the after-hours electronic trading sessions into the pivot technique. I tried to ignore the significance of the electronic trading sessions because of the relatively low volume of\ncontracts that are traded in such sessions compared with the regular day session. It has become apparent that this data should be incorporated into the pivot technique and that, under the right circumstances, it enhances the accuracy of this trading tool. I will also introduce other variations of the pivot technique and how to implement them into the pivot calculations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-294-297-three-turns-on-the-pivot-point-by-william-greenspan-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-294-297-three-turns-on-the-pivot-point-by-william-greenspan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-294-297-three-turns-on-the-pivot-point-by-william-greenspan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-theemot-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (298-301): The Emotional Volatility Trap by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here are some simple guidelines for avoiding volatile emotional swings due to the stresses of trading. By Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Traders are placed under unique stresses, making them particularly susceptible to emotional\nswings, and as a result, they may exhibit certain signs of the stress from which they suffer. Over\nthe years, I have asked many traders this question, and if you have found yourself under such\nstress, you may ask yourself the same thing: You’re probably not a manic depressive, so why are\nyou acting like one?
What causes such emotional extremes? If you liken your mind and body to a bank account into\nwhich you deposit your accumulated assets of health, vitality, strength and energy, then everything you do or say or think will determine your daily equilibrium. A substantial balance\nwill provide you with the mental and physical assets you need to trade with a clear and steady\nmind and complete emotional control."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-298-301-the-emotional-volatility-trap-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-298-301-the-emotional-volatility-trap-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-298-301-the-emotional-volatility-trap-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-theadvo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (304-310): A/D Volume, New-High, New-Low System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.14:7 (304-310): A/D Volume, New-High, New-Low System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Here, classic stock market indicators have been combined into a trading system for the\nmarket.
Previously, I developed a stock market system using the weekly advance-decline line and the weekly new highs and new lows.\nWhile a system using weekly data is valuable for filtering out daily price fluctuation noise, it does, however, leave the trader\nexposed to large adverse price movements during the trading days between the weekly buy/sell signal calculations. This one-week gap of inactivity could result in serious losses, or at least the loss of opportunity to get in at bargain prices.
This time, I will build on the ADL-NH-NL system and develop a new market system using the daily New York\nStock Exchange (NYSE) advance-decline volume and the daily NYSE 52-week new highs and new lows.
Volume has long been considered not only an indicator of the strength of a price move but also a precursor of\none. Beginning in 1965, daily volume on the NYSE was tabulated separately for advancing and declining issues\nand called advance/decline volume. Many useful indicators were developed using the advance/decline volume,\nwith the Arms indexY´ (also known as the trading index, or TRIN) probably the best known.
The NYSE daily 52-week new highs (NH) and new lows (NL) have often been cited as valuable indicators of\nfuture market direction. Since January 1978, the NHs and NLs have been calculated on a 52-week basis. Before\nJanuary 1978, however, the NHs and NLs were calculated differently: Starting on March 15, the NHs and NLs were\ncalculated from closing prices on December 31, two and a half months before. As the year progressed, the NHs\nand NLs were calculated from that same December 31. On March 14 of the following year, the NHs and NLs were\nstill calculated from that previous December 31, 14 1 /2 months before. Then the next day, on March 15, the\ncalculation date changed and the NHs and NHs were calculated from their closest December 31, two and a half\nmonths before.
It is clear that the NH and NL series from January 1978 forward are a different series from the earlier NHs and\nNLs. As a consequence, systems developed using the post-1978 NHs and NLs probably will not work on pre-1978\nNH and NL data. As previously, I will treat NHs and NLs as representing two distinct classes of investors with\ndifferent time horizons and different market expectations. Therefore, indicators on the NHs and NLs will be\ndeveloped independently of each other. This will be discussed in greater detail later."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-304-310-a-d-volume-new-high-new-low-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-304-310-a-d-volume-new-high-new-low-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-304-310-a-d-volume-new-high-new-low-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (311-316) Trading Index Spreads by Richard Halford"",""caption-linebreaks"":""There are a number of different stock index futures, such as the Value Line index and the S&P 500, with similar characteristics which can be traded as spreads. Here are some basic methods.
Trading futures spreads is a strategy used by professional traders to either hedge a position or to take advantage of divergence\nbetween certain markets. When accompanied by proper timing and a keen awareness of critical market dynamics, spreads can be all\nthe more effective in achieving specific investment objectives.\nBefore we get into some of those strategies, however, we must take a look at a futures spread trade and understand how it differs\nfrom pure arbitrage. Arbitrage is defined as the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same product in different markets to take\nadvantage of price divergence and result in a profit. For our purposes, we will define a spread trade as a long position offset by a\nshort position in futures contracts with similar – but not identical – underlying or basis.\nThere are a number of spreads to choose from, such as notes over bonds (NOB); municipal bonds over bonds (MOB); beans\n(CRUSH); and energy (CRACK). Not included are currency crosses or popular calendar spreads. However, trading futures spreads\nbetween stock market indices is a frequently overlooked technique, and it is one that presents numerous opportunities for the savvy\ntrader aware of certain indicators and how they can be used to his/her advantage.\nTo trade stock index spreads effectively, first you must become familiar with the composition of the indices and how they respond\nto certain market conditions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-311-316-trading-index-spreads-by-richard-halford-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-311-316-trading-index-spreads-by-richard-halford-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-311-316-trading-index-spreads-by-richard-halford-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-cyclesw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (317-325): Interview Richard Mogey by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Markets ebb and flow, rise and fall, come and go in short, they appear to be cyclical. To learn more about using cycles, there is probably no better source than Richard Mogey, the executive director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Stocks & Commodities spoke with Mogey about the Foundation's research into the influence of cycles on the stock market, commodities and bond markets. By Thom Hartle
Markets ebb and flow, rise and fall, come and go - in short, they appear to be cyclical. To\nlearn more about using cycles, there is probably no better source than Richard Mogey, the\nexecutive director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES\nEditor Thom Hartle spoke with Mogey via telephone on April 24, 1996, about the\nFoundation's research into the influence of cycles on the stock market and the commodities\nand bond markets.
Have you always been interested in economic and market cycles?
No. In college, I studied the classics - Greek and Latin and philosophy. But during my high school days, I was keenly interested in\ninvesting and had a portfolio of stocks. That was in the late 1950s, and then I started trading futures in the late 1960s. I continued\nto trade futures, and I made money, so I assumed that I was brilliant, but, of course, it turned out it was just a bull market and I\nwas long.
Were you using technical and fundamental methods?
I used just fundamental methods during the early days. Then I started using technical methods when I started trading futures. I\ncontinued to study trading futures and equities and I primarily traded the short-term trends. Ultimately, I went full time into trading\nin the 1980s and specialized in trading metals.
For a company?
It was a private investment company on the West Coast."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-317-325-interview-richard-mogey-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-317-325-interview-richard-mogey-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-317-325-interview-richard-mogey-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-sidecal-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (317-325): SIDEBAR: Calculating the McClellan Indicators - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""CALCULATING THE McCLELLAN INDICATORS - Technical Anlaysis, Inc.
The McClellan oscillator can be used for measuring changes in momentum of price, volume,\nadvances and declines. The most common use is for measuring the momentum of the New York\nStock Exchange (NYSE) listing of the daily number of stocks that advanced and the number of\nstocks that declined.
The calculation of the McClellan oscillator is a three-step process. First, determine the\ndifference between the number of stocks advancing and the number of stocks declining for each\nday. This raw number is then smoothed with two exponential moving averages (EMA) to create\ntwo different time series. The difference between these two time series is the McClellan\noscillator."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-317-325-sidebar-calculating-the-mcclellan-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-317-325-sidebar-calculating-the-mcclellan-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-317-325-sidebar-calculating-the-mcclellan-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c07-jumpint-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:7 (326-330): Jump Into The Net by Ron Berlin"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Want to do some research on the Internet but don't know where to start? Well, you're in luck. Here are some techniques currently available for finding investment information online, using search engines to navigate the Internet. By Ron Berlin
The Internet is an excellent reference library for investors. A vast amount of information is available online —\nif you know where to look. As recently as a year ago, it was possible to purchase books that reported where on the\nInternet such information was available. Today, however, the Net is changing so rapidly that traditionally\npublished books are no longer very useful, because they go out of date too quickly. (Indeed, some of the sites\npresented here may not appear as they are described or may have different addresses.) The sources of information\nabout what’s available on the Internet can now be found on the Net itself. Two forms of help are available: search\nengines, and jump, or linking, pages."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-326-330-jump-into-the-net-by-ron-berlin-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-326-330-jump-into-the-net-by-ron-berlin-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-7-326-330-jump-into-the-net-by-ron-berlin-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-thesp50-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (333-337): The S&P 500 Seasonal Day Trade by William Brower, C.T.A."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The S&P 500 Seasonal Day Trade by William Brower, C.T.A.
Is there a particular day of the week within a month that offers the most opportunity? Here's a trading system based on the best days of the week for trading Standard & Poor's 500 futures.
Much research has been done on seasonal trading. Originally, the concept derived from the theory that\nthere had to be certain times of the year when it is better to buy and other times when it is better to sell. If you take a commodity and run a simulation in which you pair up all possible entry days with all possible exit days in a given year, you should be able to locate the best days to trade. If you perform this task over several years of data, it is possible some patterns will appear to identify those days with the highest probability of success for both long and short trades.
In 1994 I was present at a speech given by statistician Sheldon Knight that shed new light on this old trading\nstrategy. Knight runs a company using statistics in processing financial data and has more than 30 years'\nexperience in computerized analysis of stocks and futures. During the presentation in 1994, Knight reasoned that seasonal trading approaches were ineffective because commodity futures prices react to government reports and other events based on a monthly calendar, not on a yearly one. Many government reports are released not on the nth day of the calendar year, such as the fifth of every month, but on predetermined positions within a given month. For example, employment data comes out on the first Friday of every month, while money supply figures come out every Thursday. Likewise, the producer price index comes out on the second Wednesday of the month and export sales numbers are released on the fourth Thursday.
Armed with this insight, Knight forged the concept of a seasonal trading system based on the day of week in a\ngiven month. He developed the K-data timeline method, which, according to him, was almost a successful\nposition trading system, except for the sizable drawdowns. This was later improved upon to include the influence of the actual first notice days. Recalling Knight's work in this area, I decided to use his concepts to develop trading systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-333-337-the-s-p-500-seasonal-day-trade-by-william-brower-c-t-a-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-333-337-the-s-p-500-seasonal-day-trade-by-william-brower-c-t-a-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-333-337-the-s-p-500-seasonal-day-trade-by-william-brower-c-t-a-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-histori-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (338-341): Historical Volatility and Pattern Recognition by Laurence A. Connors and Linda Bradford Raschke"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A market tends to move swiftly from periods of price consolidation to new levels. Here's how to recognize the setup before a market moves out of a short-term consolidation, from the authors of Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies. By Laurence A. Connors and Linda Bradford Raschke
In Street Smarts , we introduced a trading strategy we use to pinpoint which markets are likely to move\ndramatically. In this article, we will share this strategy with you.
Markets oscillate from periods of low volatility to high volatility and back. Our research indicates that after\nperiods of extremely low volatility, volatility tends to increase and price may move sharply. This increase in\nvolatility tends to correlate with the beginning of short- to intermediate-term moves in price. We have found\nthat we can identify which markets are about to make such a move by measuring the historical volatility and the\napplication of pattern recognition. But before we go further, let's define a few concepts, beginning with our\nmeasurement of volatility.
A FEW DEFINITIONS
Historical volatility is the standard deviation of day-to-day logarithmic closing price changes (see sidebar,\n\""Calculating historical volatility\""), expressed as an annualized percentage. In simple terms, historical volatility\nis the degree to which prices fluctuate over a period. For example, a six-day historical volatility reading of 10%\nfor a security trading at a price of $100 means that for the past six days, its annualized range would have been\nbetween $110 and $90 one standard deviation (68%) of the time.\nA high-volatility reading indicates that the security is very volatile, while a low-volatility reading signals the\nlack of volatility. You can use different lookback periods. Often, in short-term lookbacks, such as six days,\nthe historical volatility will fluctuate while the longer-term analysis, such as 100 days, will remain relatively\nstable. We have found that large price moves occur when the six-day historical volatility reading is less than\n50% of the 100-day reading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-338-341-historical-volatility-and-pattern-recognition-by-laurence-a-connors-and-linda-bradford-raschke-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-338-341-historical-volatility-and-pattern-recognition-by-laurence-a-connors-and-linda-bradford-raschke-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-338-341-historical-volatility-and-pattern-recognition-by-laurence-a-connors-and-linda-bradford-raschke-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-sidecal-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (338-341): SIDEBAR: Calculating Historical Volatility - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""CALCULATING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Historical volatility is the annualized standard deviation of the one-day price changes of the\nsecurity or futures contract. To perform this calculation in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (as\ncan be seen in sidebar Figure 1), follow these steps. First, convert the price changes to\npercentage daily price basis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-338-341-sidebar-calculating-historical-volatility-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-338-341-sidebar-calculating-historical-volatility-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-338-341-sidebar-calculating-historical-volatility-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-pacific-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (342-347): Pacific Stock Exchange Technology Index by Jerome M. Lederman, Eng.Sc.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""This professional options investor examines the performance of the Pacific Stock Exchange Technology Index compared with other market indices as a speculative and hedging tool. By Jerome M. Lederman, Eng.Sc.D.
Introduced in 1982, the Pacific Stock Exchange (PSE) Technology Index is a price-weighted, broad-based index\nrepresenting 100 listed and over-the-counter stocks. Essentially, the index is the cumulative value of one share of\neach of its 100 component stocks, with adjustments made for stock splits and stock dividends equal to or greater than\n10% of issue value. The index can be duplicated by owning an equal number of shares of each of the 100 stocks\nrepresented. Over time, appreciating stocks take on a greater weighting while depreciating stocks take on less\nweighting, but an equal number of shares in each of the 100 stocks represented by the PSE index will continue to\nduplicate the index. Capitalization-weighted indices cannot be emulated as easily.
Fifteen industries are represented in the PSE. Figure 1 lists each industry and stock weighting as of September 6,\n1995. Data communications is the highest-weighted industry (with 14.4% of the total), while electronic equipment is\nthe lowest (with 1.5% of the total). The average industry weighting is 6.7%. Xerox [XRX] represents the highest\nweighting, at 2.99%. Given the number of stocks and the distribution among industry sectors, the resources needed\nto change the price of the components so that they influence the index would be enormous."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-342-347-pacific-stock-exchange-technology-index-by-jerome-m-lederman-eng-sc-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-342-347-pacific-stock-exchange-technology-index-by-jerome-m-lederman-eng-sc-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-342-347-pacific-stock-exchange-technology-index-by-jerome-m-lederman-eng-sc-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-sidethe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (342-347): SIDEBAR: The Exchanges and Indices - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Listing of Exchanges and indicators. - Technical Analysis, Inc.
THE EXCHANGES AND INDICES
\nNew York Futures Exchange (NYFE)
The New York Futures Exchange, a wholly owned subsidiary of the New York Cotton Exchange (NYCE),\nhas approximately 359 members holding 435 seats; its members include many of the country's largest and\nmost prestigious brokerage houses.
Pacific Stock Exchange (PSE)
The Pacific Stock Exchange, located in San Francisco and Los Angeles, lists 1,784 different equity issues and\n297 equity options. During 1994, option volume surged to 20.9 million contracts.
PSE Technology Index
The PSE Technology Index measures the performance of the technology sector of the US equity market and is\nconsidered one of the most consistent and accurate proxies for technology issues.\nThe PSE is a price-weighted, broad-based index, representing 100 exchange-listed and over-the-counter stocks\nfrom 15 different technology-oriented industries. Approximately half the stocks, 51.1%, are listed on the\nNYSE, and approximately half, 48.1%, are listed on the NASDAQ. The PSE is price weighted; that is, the\ncomponent stocks are given a percentage weighting based on their price. The PSE is calculated by adding the\nprices of the component stocks and using a divisor that is adjusted for splits and stock dividends equal to or\ngreater than 10% of the market value of an issue. The index is calculated and disseminated every 15 seconds.\nSince 1983, the index has been disseminated to all major quotation vendors."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-342-347-sidebar-the-exchanges-and-indices-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-342-347-sidebar-the-exchanges-and-indices-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-342-347-sidebar-the-exchanges-and-indices-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-sidemfi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (348-352): SIDEBAR: MFI Indicators - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""MFI INDICATORS - Techncial Analysis, Inc.
TradeStation and SuperCharts users can use the following formulas in the PaintBar Study to\ncolor bars for each of the MFI indicators. Simply type the formula in the IF box of the PaintBar\nformula dialog box and choose your color for the bar to be painted."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-348-352-sidebar-mfi-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-348-352-sidebar-mfi-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-348-352-sidebar-mfi-indicators-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-themark-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (348-352): The Market Facilitation Index by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume, one of the key elements in technical analysis, is used to analyze the power behind a trend. Heavy volume days may indicate a strong trend, while light volume days could indicate the lack of a trend. Here's a method to connect volume and price movement to quantify price activity. By Thom Hartle
In Trading Chaos, Bill Williams describes a unique way to combine price action and volume. The technique\noffers a perspective of the current state of the market based on this relationship between price movement and\nvolume. For example, heavy volume may be signaling a trend, but not always, as increased activity without\nprice movement may be indicating a trend reversal. Williams's approach allows the trader to gain insight into\nthe intensity of the trading activity and create new skills of analysis. In addition, this method can be used in\nany time frame from intraday bars to weekly bars.
THE MFI
Before going any further, let's define the MFI. The market facilitation index is the bar's range (high-low)\ndivided by the volume for the bar. Each bar now has a mathematical relationship of the price activity versus the\nvolume. In essence, the MFI is a measurement of market efficiency, tracking how much movement has\noccurred in price relative to the volume. By itself, this ratio offers little insight, but Williams recommends\ncomparing the MFI for the current bar to the previous one. Once you do that, you can gauge the current bar's\nefficiency or ability to facilitate price to the previous bar's degree of efficiency.
To understand what the market's ability to facilitate price indicates, however, a discussion about volume is in\norder.
Today, trends in the futures market are primarily driven by orders coming from off the floor. The really large\nvolume days are often due to outside participants' reactions to fundamental factors confirming or altering the\nattitudes of general players toward the market - for example, the Treasury bond futures market reaction to a\nsurprisingly large or small unemployment report.
Contrast this degree of activity to, say, a day in the T-bond market when there is little news and the trading\nactivity in the pit consists primarily of localsY´ trading and off-floor traders trading for very short-term moves.\nConsequently, on these days the volume is very low. Thus, we can say that trends are driven by orders\ncoming from off the floor. And before a trend can start, first there must be an increase in volume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-348-352-the-market-facilitation-index-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-348-352-the-market-facilitation-index-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-348-352-the-market-facilitation-index-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-onthein-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (353-359): On the Intuitive Trader: Robert Koppel by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Phenomenology and existentialism and trading? Oh, my! Nothing in Robert Koppel's background as a philosophy academic could have given the slightest clue that he would end up as a floor trader for 17 years before giving that up for yet another career using the insights of his previous two. Stocks & Commodities interviewed Koppel, who is now a proprietary trader with Innergame Partners, on topics such as how traders see their own versions of reality and the importance of developing a trading plan that is consistent with your personality. By Thom Hartle
When did you first start trading?
I began trading in the mid-1970s, but my formal education was in philosophy. I have a graduate degree from\nColumbia University, and the area of my expertise was phenomenology and existentialism.\nWell, trading certainly makes you become more philosophical!
So what does\nphenomenology and existentialism deal with?
Basically, phenomenology and existentialism deal with how one formulates both objective and subjective\nreality, and how one develops a sense of self based on the way one interprets reality. I was a formal student of\nboth those fields, and I was prepared to pursue that as my life's work, both in terms of writing and teaching.
What brought about the switch to trading?
In the mid-1970s, I was working for a research institute in New York pursuing this line of study, and my\nbrother invited me for a weekend in Chicago. He was a member of the Chicago Board of Trade, and he traded\nin the grain pits. He invited me to come down to the exchange for the day. I wasn't particularly excited by the\nidea at first, but I finally took him up on it. And then when I got down to the exchange and actually saw the\npits in action, it seemed like the Great Barrier Reef!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-on-the-intuitive-trader-robert-koppel-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-on-the-intuitive-trader-robert-koppel-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-on-the-intuitive-trader-robert-koppel-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-sidecap-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (353-359): SIDEBAR: Capturing the Edge - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Koppel and Abell's critical factors in capturing an edge in trading. - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-sidebar-capturing-the-edge-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-sidebar-capturing-the-edge-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-sidebar-capturing-the-edge-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-sidepsy-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (353-359): SIDEBAR: Psychological Barriers to Trading - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Characterizations of certain psychological barriers to trading. - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-sidebar-psychological-barriers-to-trading-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-sidebar-psychological-barriers-to-trading-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-sidebar-psychological-barriers-to-trading-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-sideyou-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (353-359): SIDEBAR: Your Trading Performance - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""YOUR TRADING PERFORMANCE - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Koppel explains in The Intuitive Trader that trading performance is a direct reflection of how you, the trader,\nfeel. When you feel good, therefore, you perform at high levels. Further, Koppel explains that trading\nperformance at the highest levels occurs without conscious deliberation when the right internal climate for\ntrading has been established."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-sidebar-your-trading-performance-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-sidebar-your-trading-performance-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-353-359-sidebar-your-trading-performance-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-beatthe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (360-363): Beat the Market with Cyclicals by Paul and Carole Huebotter"",""caption-linebreaks"":""\""The new Dow strategy\"" outlined here is a method to pick a 10-stock portfolio to\noutperform both the Dow 30 and the well-known Dow dividend strategy. Take a look.\nby Paul and Carole Huebotter
Economists maintain that the markets are too efficient for any trading system to regularly outperform, say,\nthe 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or the Standard & Poor's 500 index. We\ndisagree. Here's one that not only theoretically should, but does. The system, to which we refer as the new\nDow strategy , is akin to the well-known Dow dividend strategy, which used to work well but has faltered\nconsiderably in the past decade. When the DJIA was mainly a collection of large cyclical-company stocks\npaying similar yields when averaged over the entire business cycle, investing in the top 10 yielders made\nsense. But the stock substitutions - 10 in the last 17 years - have transformed the DJIA into a hybrid group\noften dominated by growth companies.
For example, the three energy giants - Chevron [CHV], Exxon [XON] and Texaco [TX] - are always in the\nDow dividend portfolio, but their performance doesn't usually merit such loyalty. On the other hand, the\nlow-yielding newcomers, such as McDonald's [MCD], Coca-Cola [KO] and Disney [DIS], never make the top 10. The symmetry of the DJIA has gradually eroded. As a result, the Dow dividend strategy has had an\naverage annual return only 1% better than the DJIA since 1985, a far cry from the system's glory days of the\n1970s and early 1980s."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-360-363-beat-the-market-with-cyclicals-by-paul-and-carole-huebotter-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-360-363-beat-the-market-with-cyclicals-by-paul-and-carole-huebotter-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-360-363-beat-the-market-with-cyclicals-by-paul-and-carole-huebotter-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-treasur-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (364-369): Treasury Bond Yields and the S&P 500 by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interest rates have long been tied to movement in the stock market. Here's how to test trading rules for the stock market based on a six-month moving average of the 30-year Treasury bond yield, showing us when it may and may not be profitable to invest in stocks. By Mark Vakkur, M.D.
I nterest rates exert a powerful influence on equity prices. Since World War II, there has been a strong,\ninverse relationship between the movement in the stock market and prevailing interest rates, such as the yield\non the 30-year Treasury bond. Here, I will explore the development of a simple trading system that uses the\ntrend in interest rates to generate buy and sell signals for the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. By using\nthese signals, a trader could have generated substantially greater returns than a buy-and-hold strategy would\nhave produced and with less risk.
BACKGROUND
The 30-year Treasury yield is an excellent stock market indicator. Widely available and actively traded, the\nbond market reflects international and domestic traders' consensus on, among other things, inflationary\noutlook, future economic growth and confidence in the fiscal and monetary policies of the US government.\nAll things being equal, a falling yield means traders are discounting future good news about inflation, one of\nthe most powerful negative influences on stock prices. Falling yields, of course, result from rallying bond\nprices, and over any significant historical period - as John Murphy most cogently pointed out in his\nIntermarket Technical Analysis - bonds and stocks move in tandem. Ignoring this relationship is like\nignoring a red light at an intersection; you might beat the odds several times in a row, but eventually you'll end\nup in a crash.
As every trader and investor knows, making a general observation such as \""Falling yields translate into rising\nstock prices\"" is useless unless we can first objectively and rigorously define what we mean by falling yields,\nthen develop buy and sell signals, and finally, back-test the system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-364-369-treasury-bond-yields-and-the-s-p-500-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-364-369-treasury-bond-yields-and-the-s-p-500-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-364-369-treasury-bond-yields-and-the-s-p-500-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c08-novicet-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:8 (372): Novice Trader Notebook"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Double Top.
Consider a security or a futures contract that is in an uptrend. The\nprice reaches a point at which all of the buyers' demand is met, and\nthe sellers, whether traders taking profits or aggressive short sellers,\nenter the market and overwhelm the buyers. That price level will\nbecome known as major resistance, as the level establishes a point at\nwhich the supply is significantly greater than the demand (point A)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-372-novice-trader-notebook-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-372-novice-trader-notebook-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-8-372-novice-trader-notebook-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-novicet-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (372): Novice Trader's Notebook"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Double Bottom
Downtrends often end with a process of\nbuilding a base on the chart. This pictorial\ndisplay represents a shift from negative\nfundamentals and pessimistic investor\nsentiment, driving prices down,\nto the news turning positive, encouraging\ntraders and investors to become net\nbuyers. Typically, this process takes\ntime, and market participants are dealing\nwith conflicting news that leads to a\nmarket trading in a sideways fashion.\nBut as the news turns more positive, the\nchange in the fundamentals creates a\nnew uptrend. One technical base or bottom\nchart pattern that distinguishes this\nprocess is the double bottom."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-372-novice-trader-s-notebook-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-372-novice-trader-s-notebook-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-372-novice-trader-s-notebook-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-sidesta-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (375-378): SIDEBAR: Standard Error Bands - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Standard error bands by Thom Hartle
Microsoft’s Excel comes with statistical formulas that can be used to create the standard error bands and the related indicators (sidebar Figure 1). The following example uses Microsoft stock price series; column A is the date. Column B is a numerical series for representing the X-axis for calculating the statistical indicators. We are not using the date column for the X-axis because the weekends will be counted in the calculation of the statistical indicators. The difference between Friday and Monday is three periods to Excel, not one, and therefore, the statistical indicators will\nuse column B. In cell B2, enter the number “1,” then in cell B3, enter the following formula and copy down: =B2+1"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-375-378-sidebar-standard-error-bands-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-375-378-sidebar-standard-error-bands-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-375-378-sidebar-standard-error-bands-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-standar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (375-378): Standard Error Bands by Jon Anderson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Standard Error Bands by Jon Anderson
Here's a new technique for placing trading bands around the price action of your favorite market. This technique shows how to recognize low-volatility situations and aid in forecasting trend direction.
There was a time when technical analysis consisted of hand-sketched trendlines and bar charts drawn on graph paper, but today, using powerful computers, technical analysis has evolved to include advanced oscillators and sophisticated indicators. Due to software limitations, however, statistically based indicators have been difficult to apply in security analysis, even though statistics, when interpreted properly, can describe many relationships and lead to estimating probable future outcomes. This very point led me to research statistical relationships to find profitable buy and sell signals using statistical tools. The standard error band is such a tool.
ABOUT BANDS
One popular technical indicator, Bollinger bands, is a very useful statistical tool. Bollinger bands indicate\nareas of high and low volatility around the mean or average price. Bollinger bands consist of three bands, with the computation of the middle band a 20-period moving average of the closing price, and then adding two standard deviations of the closing price to the moving average to form the upper band. The lower band is constructed by subtracting two standard deviations of the closing price from the 20-period moving average. When the bands are wide, the market is volatile, and the narrowing bands indicate that volatility is receding.
While this volatility measurement is of value, the Bollinger band by itself does not indicate the degree or\ndirection of the market trend. And because most technicians attempt to trade with the trend and not against it, it became obvious to me that a statistically based indicator showing the trend and the volatility around that trend would be necessary. From this observation, I created standard error bands."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-375-378-standard-error-bands-by-jon-anderson-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-375-378-standard-error-bands-by-jon-anderson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-375-378-standard-error-bands-by-jon-anderson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-thecoti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (380-391): The COT Index and Corn by Scott Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The COT Index and Corn by Scott Barrie
Here's a study on using the Commitments of Traders index as an indicator for trading the corn market.
The clearing houses for futures exchanges list the current number of outstanding contracts as the open interest figures. Unlike securities, where the paper is referred to as shares and which are only issued by the\ncorporations, futures contracts can be created and dissolved by the parties actually trading the market.\nWhenever a new buyer goes long a contract and the other side of the trade is a new seller establishing a short position, one new contract is created. Besides the clearing houses, the Commodities Futures Trading\nCommission (CFTC), a government agency, also tracks the positions held by reporting traders and releases a monthly report called the Commitments of Traders (COT) report.
The COT report is a breakdown of open interest into six major classifications: commercial longs, commercial\nshorts, noncommercial longs, noncommercial shorts, small trader longs and small trader shorts. The CFTC\nclassifies an account as commercial if it uses futures for hedging purposes. Noncommercials are those\nindividuals or entities who have positions that are equal to or exceed the reporting level for a particular\ncommodity market. The remainder of the contracts outstanding that are not spread positions fall into the small trader category.
Conventional wisdom has it that the commercial hedgers and noncommercials (or large speculators) are consistently right, while the small speculators are consistently wrong. But in commodity trading, conventional wisdom is a very dangerous thing to rely on. According to my own analysis, the speculative accuracy of the various groups depends greatly on the month in which the report was issued, or to put it more precisely, the sentiment of the various groups must be viewed within a seasonal context. The corn contract, traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), will be used to demonstrate my findings."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-380-391-the-cot-index-and-corn-by-scott-barrie-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-380-391-the-cot-index-and-corn-by-scott-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-380-391-the-cot-index-and-corn-by-scott-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-avoidin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (387-391): Avoiding False Signals by Joe Luisi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Some people may think that technical analysis doesn't work anymore, but here's one author's\nsolutions to today's challenging modern markets.\nby Joe Luisi
Having been involved with technical trading for several years, I've noticed that technical analysis doesn't seem to\nhold the same promise it once did. Indicators and patterns that were once tried and true are no longer reliable; false\nsignals and breakouts occur more frequently. Frequent stop running causes moves that seem to make no sense. Over\nthe years, with computers having become so inexpensive, and data, either real time or delayed, relatively cheap and\naccessible, many more traders have become technical. Software packages that once cost $400-$2,000 are now\navailable for less than $200, some as low as $20. Look at the classified advertisements of a trading publication, and\nyou can see literally dozens of technical (mechanical) trading systems for sale, with fantastic claims attached.\nMoreover, everyone seems to have a system for sale. Five to 10 years ago, those same classified ads had only a few\nsystems for sale. This onslaught of technology has created a change in the markets, and if you can't see it or prepare\nfor it, you will become a financial victim.
THE NEW WAVE
Every new technician reads the basics of chart patterns and indicators and applies them to his or her trading, only to\nfind they don't work. So how can traders overcome this new wave?
On the surface, these problems appear to make perfect sense; after all, the more people following the same indicators\nand patterns, the greater the possibility for aberration. If everyone is following the stochastic indicator and it falls\nbelow 30, a classic buy signal is triggered. At that point, thousands of screen-based technical traders who follow this\nindicator will call their brokers to buy at the market. This rush to the phones causes a brief runup in prices, and so it\nappears that the signal is working out.
However - of course, there's a however - once the buying dries up, and it always does, no buyers are left to propel\nthe market higher and the only thing left to do is sell. The brief influx was caused by technicians all jumping in at\nonce. This causes a false move up, because the buy side is heavily favored temporarily. After the last technician\nbuys, there are no more buyers left in the market at that price, and therefore, sellers take over and the market reverses\ndirection. The technician scrambles to cover his or her position or lock in a profit, thus adding fuel to the selloff.\nHence, the classic false signal.
Let's look at several examples of how the market can make moves that appear to make no sense at all, and then we\nwill look at ways to avoid these situations. Finally, we will look at several patterns that I have found to work over\ntime."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-387-391-avoiding-false-signals-by-joe-luisi-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-387-391-avoiding-false-signals-by-joe-luisi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-387-391-avoiding-false-signals-by-joe-luisi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-options-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (392-401): Option Strategies and Neural Networks by Thomas B. Rubino Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Strategies and Neural Networks by Thomas B. Rubino Jr.
Confidence intervals are a statistical tool that describes the accuracy of a prediction, while neural networks provide predictions. This article combines the two to define the risk in a trade.
In recent years, neural networks have gained acceptance in solving problems related to portfolio management and market timing. Traders trust these models because they are accurate; nevertheless, many traders still view neural nets as a black box where data goes in one end and a prediction comes out the other. Now it's time to shine some light into that box, gain additional information from your neural nets, and use that information to build successful trading strategies.
Statistical tools that describe the accuracy of a prediction are particularly useful to traders. Confidence intervals, like the outermost ring on a marksman's target, place boundaries on a prediction's error. While it would be nice to hit the bull's-eye, there's a far greater probability of hitting the target somewhere inside the outermost ring. Confidence intervals are even more sophisticated, because it is possible to assign a probability to the actual value falling within the confidence interva .
Statistics literature often employs 95% confidence intervals, meaning 95 out of 100 actual observations should fall within the interval. These tools have long been applied to linear techniques in order to evaluate forecasts. The theory behind confidence intervals for nonlinear regression is also well known. Since neural networks are a class of nonlinear regression models, it is possible to create confidence intervals for neural nets."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-392-401-option-strategies-and-neural-networks-by-thomas-b-rubino-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-392-401-option-strategies-and-neural-networks-by-thomas-b-rubino-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-392-401-option-strategies-and-neural-networks-by-thomas-b-rubino-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-sideslo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (392-401): SIDEBAR: Slope of Activation Function - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""SLOPE OF ACTIVATION FUNCTION - Technical Analysis, Inc.
A new slope of activation functions to improve the neural net's fit.
In an effort to improve the model's fit of the data, we updated the slope of the activation function. This approach,\nhowever, is not required to calculate neural network confidence intervals. We updated the activation function slopes\nbecause it improves the capability of neural networks to predict future values."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-392-401-sidebar-slope-of-activation-function-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-392-401-sidebar-slope-of-activation-function-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-392-401-sidebar-slope-of-activation-function-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-neutral-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (397-401): Neutral Options Strategies by David L. Caplan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here's an overview of using options as a technique to take advantage of unique situations in the futures markets. By David L. Caplan
How can you take advantage of the same principles of success that the most profitable corporations in the\nworld, the casinos and insurance companies, use to improve your odds in trading?
Why are insurance companies and casinos so profitable? Insurance companies are consistently profitable\nbecause they use the laws of mathematics, probability and special circumstances to their advantage. They can\npick and choose who they want to insure and the prices they want to charge for insurance. Therefore, they\n\""own\"" the game by being able to set the rates we need to pay to get on their playing field.
Casinos use comparable principles by which to profit. When you gamble on roulette, you appear to be given\nfair odds on your bet. There are 36 numbers in the roulette wheel and if you pick the right one, you are paid off at 36 to 1. In addition, if you pick even or odd, red or black, you are paid off at the correct odds, 2 to 1.\nHowever, what most roulette players fail to consider is that the number \""00\"" is also on the roulette wheel and\nwill appear in a game 2.7% of the time. This is the casino's edge, game after game, day after day. Similarly,\nthe odds of other casino games range from 2% to 10%, depending on the type of game or how poorly the\nplayers play. While at first glance this percentage might not seem large, it is compounded on a\nminute-by-minute basis as each game is played, not on a daily or monthly basis the way your savings account\nis.
Professional bookmakers enjoy related mathematical advantages. If a bookie takes bets on a prize fight and\nbalances his book properly, half the bettors will win, and half will lose. The bookie must pay off half these\nbets. The bookie derives his profit by establishing the odds for the two fighters. Assuming that the fighters are\nevenly matched, the bookie may quote six to five odds \""pick 'em,\"" meaning you can pick either fighter and\nreceive a $5.00 profit for each $6.00 you bet. Therefore, if a bookie is able to obtain bets of $600,000 on each\nparticipant in the fight for a total bet of $1.2 million, no matter which fighter wins, he is obligated to pay off\n$1.1 million, for a profit of $100,000."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-397-401-neutral-options-strategies-by-david-l-caplan-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-397-401-neutral-options-strategies-by-david-l-caplan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-397-401-neutral-options-strategies-by-david-l-caplan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-howarda-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (402-408): Interview Howard Abell of Innergame Partners by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview Howard Abell of Innergame Partners by Thom Hartle
With nearly 30 years' experience as a trader and broker in the commodities pits, money manager and author Howard Abell has the bead on what it takes to trade. Abell, co-author with Bob Kopell of The Innergame of Trading and The Outer Game of Trading, and whose own Day Trader's Advantage has just been published, uses technical analysis with the weather eye of experience. He also writes the IMPR Market Letter, published for professional and institutional traders. Stocks & Commodities interviewed Abell on topics such as how Abell picks his spots to enter the market, why he may abandon a bad trade and the mental challenges to trading.
Q: Let's start with your background.
A: I started out as a stockbroker. I was fortunate, because at that time, the large securities firms sent you to New York for training for 18 to 20 weeks.
Q: When was this?
A: I'm going to date myself, but this was back in the late 1960s. The education that you received this way was\nbetter than business school, because you were actually being taught by people on Wall Street doing the\ninvestment banking and finance operations of the large securities firms.
Q: What firm were you with?
A: Bache and Co., which later became Prudential-Bache. I received a well-rounded education in securities, futures and financial instruments.
Q: Did you start out as a securities account executive, or did you begin with a focus on commodities?
A: Shortly after I began doing securities business, I started to move toward the commodities markets. At that time, it was mostly commodities and not futures, because there were very few financial instruments and of course, no stock indices. I began to move in that direction because I found it very interesting, and I thought the commodities markets presented a more level playing field than the securities business did. Some people might not agree, but I think there's more information available to people who take the time to accumulate it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-402-408-interview-howard-abell-of-innergame-partners-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-402-408-interview-howard-abell-of-innergame-partners-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-402-408-interview-howard-abell-of-innergame-partners-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c09-commitm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.14:9 (409-410): The Trader's Commitment by Ari Kiev, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are you willing to explore the ramifications of your trading? Trading in terms of your objectives is a key to enhancing your success as a trader. Here's how to use your goals to develop powerful trading strategies. By Ari Kiev, M.D.
The dictionary defines commitment as a decisive choice that involves a definite course of\naction. In trading, this refers to a proactive approach in which you promise a result and then\nconform your trading to that result. The promise creates a discrepancy or gap between where\nyou are and where you have promised you would be. The discrepancy becomes a source of\ntension that, ideally, motivates you to determine what must be done to bring reality in line with\nyour objectives rather than simply doing what is comfortable or habitual.
It is not simply a question of working harder or pumping yourself up with positive but empty\naffirmations, but a willingness to explore all the ramifications of your trading. In order to do\nso, you must answer questions such as:
• How much do you intend to make?
• When do you intend to make it?
• What do you have to do?
• What beliefs and habits of trading must you relinquish?
• How much capital do you need?
• How many shares must you purchase and how long should you hold them to reach your\nobjectives?
• When should you enlarge your position?
• What must you pay attention to in order to manage your losses?
• How much more capital can you put at risk to increase your profitability while managing\nyour downside risk?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-409-410-the-trader-s-commitment-by-ari-kiev-m-d-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-409-410-the-trader-s-commitment-by-ari-kiev-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-14-9-409-410-the-trader-s-commitment-by-ari-kiev-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c01-adailya-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:1 (11-19) A Daily A-D New High-New Low Market System by Dennis Meyers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Daily A-D New High-New Low Market System by Dennis Meyers
Here's a new system using daily statistics to issue buy and sell signals for the stock market.
In the February 1996 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I presented a stock market timing system called the ADL-NH-NL system, which uses as its base for generating signals the weekly advancing-declining issues (ADL) and the weekly new highs (NH) and new lows (NL) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). I rigorously investigated this set of market indicators because of the anecdotal discussion that has abounded concerning the use of these market statistics. Often, articles point to comparisons of these indicators to the Dow Jones averages as confirmation of emerging upward market trends or forewarning market declines based on divergences. My February article detailed the development and rigorous testing of a weekly based method using in- and out-of-sample\nparameter design and models."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-11-19-a-daily-a-d-new-high-new-low-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-11-19-a-daily-a-d-new-high-new-low-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-11-19-a-daily-a-d-new-high-new-low-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c01-betaadj-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:1 (20-25): Beta-Adjusting Trailing Stops by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Beta-Adjusting Trailing Stops by Thomas Bulkowski
Have you ever wondered how to improve the performance of your favorite indicator or trading system? By using your indicator to signal a buy and a beta-adjusted trailing stop to get you out, you could improve your investing results.
If you’re like many traders new to technical analysis, you spend scores of hours adjusting parameters on indicators trying to improve your trading system’s performance. You may have tried to combine several indicators to help gauge buy and sell decisions. You may have tried to add your own special twist to popular systems. Do you have one indicator that handles both buy and sell signals? Have you considered that one indicator may be great at placing buy signals but poor when it comes to selling?
In that case, why not split the buy and sell decisions? During my quest for the perfect trading system, I noticed that the use of a trailing stop significantly improved performance of the system. The improvement did not apply to just one trading system; it applied across numerous indicators and strategies that I tested. In my testing, it became clear that the buy and sell signals should be treated independently. This is why you may want to have two indicators in your system: one to get you in and one to get you out. Here’s a technique I developed called BATS, a beta-adjusted trailing stop, that uses the stock’s beta to adjust the setting of a trailing stop-loss."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-20-25-beta-adjusting-trailing-stops-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-20-25-beta-adjusting-trailing-stops-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-20-25-beta-adjusting-trailing-stops-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c01-develop-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:1 (26-34): Developing Systems With a Rule-Based Approach by Jeffrey Owen Katz"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Developing Systems With a Rule-Based Approach by Jeffrey Owen Katz
This month, Katz discusses a trading system he developed using a rule-based approach.
Previously, I explored the development of simple rule-based trading systems. Specifically, I looked at a rule-based system that revolved around a theory, the thrust-retracement hypothesis, about how the market functions. This time, I’ll also explore rule-based trading systems, but rather than constructing a set of rules to reflect a hypothesis of market behavior, I will engage in “data mining” — that is, empirically determining tradable rules. I’ll use rules to capture patterns that are tradable, and once the patterns are identified, formulate a set of rules that empirically trades well. I’m moving from hypothesis-based rule development to empirically based rule development, one step on the journey to the use of evolution-based techniques to create rule-based systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-26-34-developing-systems-with-a-rule-based-approach-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-26-34-developing-systems-with-a-rule-based-approach-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-26-34-developing-systems-with-a-rule-based-approach-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c01-markdoup-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:1 (35-40): Mark Douglas And The Disciplined Trader by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Mark Douglas And The Disciplined Trader by Thom Hartle
The best teacher is experience, and from his experiences as a trader and a broker, Mark Douglas, consultant with his own firm, Trading Behavior Dynamics, and author of The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes, has experienced the gamut of trading emotions. From observing his and other people's emotional states, Douglas has developed strategies to help traders do what most professionals will tell you is the hardest part of trading - using your head. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Douglas via telephone on October 17, 1996, about fear, self-trust, the difference between a belief system and a trading system and gaining that ever-important edge.
Q: Mark, when did you first start trading?
A: I started trading futures in 1978. I was managing a commercial causality insurance agency at the time, but I was bored with it. Then one day, I got a cold call from a commodities broker. I decided to give it a try, and I started trading gold futures. From that point on, I really got caught up in the process, the same way most everyone does."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-35-40-mark-douglas-and-the-disciplined-trader-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-35-40-mark-douglas-and-the-disciplined-trader-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-35-40-mark-douglas-and-the-disciplined-trader-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c01-straddl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:1 (41-50): Straddles, Strangles And Spreads by Richard M. Koff"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Straddles, Strangles And Spreads by Richard M. Koff
Here's a primer for the new trader who wants to move beyond simple buy-and-hold strategies.
Options provide such a bewildering variety of risky and complicated investment choices that most small investors avoid them. You can trade options on stocks,\ncommodities and several indices, such as the Standard & Poor’s 500 or the Standard & Poor’s 100. Index options, in particular, offer several important advantages. Unlike commodity options, you never have to worry about accepting delivery of the underlying commodity or even closing out a position before expiration, because all that is taken care of by the clearing house. Further, if you trade the S&P 100 index option (OEX), you don’t have to open an account with a broker specializing in options because the OEX is traded by stock brokers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-41-50-straddles-strangles-and-spreads-by-richard-m-koff-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-41-50-straddles-strangles-and-spreads-by-richard-m-koff-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-1-41-50-straddles-strangles-and-spreads-by-richard-m-koff-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c10-onusing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:10 (429-437): On Using Volatility Bands by Ahmet Tezel, Ph.D., and Suzan Koknar-Tezel, M.S."",""caption-linebreaks"":""We’ve all seen a stock break out of its trading range\nand trend to new levels. The initial surge will appear\nas a sudden increase in activity, pushing the price\nhigher. The higher prices often reach levels that\nindicate the stock is temporarily overbought and,\nafter a pause, may continue to trend. Technicians use\nindicators to identify the temporary extremes, and\none indicator is volatility bands. This article details\ntwo trading systems designed to take advantage of\nthe breakouts.
Many software packages for technical\nanalysis of the stock market\ncontain volatility bands using\nstandard deviations of prices\n(Bollinger bands, for example).\nThe conventional application of Bollinger bands\nassumes that a stock is overboughtY´ as the price\napproaches the upper band, and that it is oversoldY´ as\nthe price nears the lower band. By using overbought\nand oversold conditions, aggressive investors can\ncountertrade frequently, expecting reversals of current\nshort-term trends. Using volatility bands, we\nwanted to test a trend-following system trading outside\nthe bands rather than a contrary system trading\nwithin."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-429-437-on-using-volatility-bands-by-ahmet-tezel-ph-d-and-suzan-koknar-tezel-m-s-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-429-437-on-using-volatility-bands-by-ahmet-tezel-ph-d-and-suzan-koknar-tezel-m-s-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-429-437-on-using-volatility-bands-by-ahmet-tezel-ph-d-and-suzan-koknar-tezel-m-s-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c10-trendfo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:10 (438-441): Trend-Following The Corn/Wheat Spread by Scott W. Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Grain markets offer profit opportunities due to the seasonal\nnature of their planting, crop development and harvesting\ncycle. During certain times of the year, the price of the grain crops are especially vulnerable due to these seasonal tendencies.\nHere are some trading strategies based on seasonal\nspread trading, using a trend-following method to filter\nseasonal signals.
Seasonal analysis is comparable to\nany other analytical method; we\nassume that future price movement\nwill be similar to past price\nmovement. When working with\nseasonal analysis, you review past\nprice behavior within the frame-work\nof seasons or some other\ntime element. Identify any recurring\npatterns and then anticipate\nthat future price action will follow the historical patterns.\nOf course, all analysis, be it technical or fundamental, rests on using past measurements to predict future market behavior. Fundamental analysts — grain analysts, for example — base their forecasts on a number of historical fundamentals, including past crop sizes, yields and traditional demand\nlevels. Using simple logic, if this year’s crop carryover is\nlarger than last year’s, a bearish prediction could be made."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-438-441-trend-following-the-corn-wheat-spread-by-scott-w-barrie-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-438-441-trend-following-the-corn-wheat-spread-by-scott-w-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-438-441-trend-following-the-corn-wheat-spread-by-scott-w-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c10-threeli-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:10 (442-448): Three-Line Break Reversal Signals by William Arnold"",""caption-linebreaks"":""This charting technique is a simple but effective technique for determining the direction of the trend as well as changes in the trend.
With volatility in the stock market\nincreasing, many new and elaborate\nmethods have been developed\nto predict market turns. This\nposes a problem: Indicators of\ncomplex construction may work\nor they may not, for no apparent\nreason. So finding system components\nthat follow the keep-it-simple\napproach may seem unfashionable,\nbut in reality it is a survival technique. In fact,\nolder and simpler indicators have withstood the test of time\nfor good reason.\nOne classic technique is the point and figure charting\nmethod, which is used by many professionals to identify and\ngauge market reversals. Recently, analyst Thomas Dorsey\npublished an excellent expansion of the classic de Villiers\nwork on this charting method. Using point and figure charts,\nthough, requires time, specialized skill and, in some cases,\ndata that may be inaccessible to nonprofessionals. Fortunately, there’s an old, simple and underused approach to predicting reversals, a method similar to one aspect of point and figure.\nThis technique is known as three-line break charting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-442-448-three-line-break-reversal-signals-by-william-arnold-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-442-448-three-line-break-reversal-signals-by-william-arnold-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-442-448-three-line-break-reversal-signals-by-william-arnold-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c10-correcti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:10 (449-452): Correction or Reversal? by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Markets trend. And within those trends are corrective phases,\nwhich in turn are followed by the trend resuming. At some\npoint, the major market trend reverses. So what might be a\nclue to whether the current price action is a correction or a\ntrend reversal? Here’s one method to consider.
After a market advance and the\nprice drops below its moving\naverage, technicians are faced\nwith a question: Is the decline\njust a correction, or is it the beginning\nof a trend reversal? If,\nafter the moving average cross,\nthe technician decides it is indeed\na correction (Figure 1), he’ll\nprepare to buy support, anticipating a resumption of the trend. If, on the other hand, he decides\nit is the start of a reversal (Figure 2), he will short the market when\nit crosses the average, anticipating even lower prices.\nAfter an advance and the market crosses below the moving\naverage, how can you determine if a trend correction or a\ntrend reversal is occurring? If the advance were a strong one,\nwe should assume that the cross of the moving average\nsignals the start of a correction, or at least a temporary pause\nin the uptrend. If the advance were weak, we would assume\nthat the moving average cross signals the trend had ended and\na reversal was under way."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-449-452-correction-or-reversal-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-449-452-correction-or-reversal-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-449-452-correction-or-reversal-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c10-analysi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:10 (453-460): Analysis in Action: Tushar Chande by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tushar S. Chande is a familiar name to regular Stocks & Commodities readers, as he's contributed any number of solid, well-researched and thoughtful technical articles over the years and has been a Contributing Editor for the past few. His background, like so many others, wasn't financial when he started out; he started out as an engineer before being bit by the trading bug before eventually ending up as a Commodity Trading Advisor in Chicago. Having evolved into a money manager, Chande has keen insight into trading system development. To conduct this interview, S&C Editor Thom Hartle and Chande exchanged a series of questions and answers via E-mail in late July 1997. What follows is the result. By Thom Hartle
Tell us something about your\nbackground.\nI’ve traveled the scenic\nroute to where I am today,\nfrom application-driven research & development\nat General Electric in\nSchenectady, NY, to working in the\nshadow of the Chicago Board of Trade.\nIn Chicago, I joined forces with two\npartners of a highly successful options\ntrading firm to create Tuscarora Capital\nManagement, a Commodity Trading\nAdvisor.\nWith stops in Ohio and Pennsylvania\nalong the way, right?\nThat’s right. When I was busy obtaining\nnine patents for laser-fiber transmission,\nI never imagined my quantitative\nbackground would find fertile soil\nin commodity trading. Along the way, I\nbecame a quant in financial engineering,\nacquired a master’s in business\nadministration, wrote two books, de-veloped\na software package and learned\nto trade. I also had the good fortune to\nwork with Stanley Kroll, a master featured\nin John Train’s Money Masters.\nIt’s been an enjoyable journey through a\npanorama of price charts and test results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-453-460-analysis-in-action-tushar-chande-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-453-460-analysis-in-action-tushar-chande-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-453-460-analysis-in-action-tushar-chande-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c10-evaluat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:10 (461-464): Evaluating Sysem Efficiency by Leo Zamansky, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""We've all experienced good trades, bad trades and so-so trades. Wouldn't it be better if you had steps you could take to improve the entries and exits of the trades that your system generated to quantify the good from the bad? This article provides basic steps to do so. By Leo J. Zamansky, Ph.D., and David C. Stendahl
Evaluating a trading system performance\nis not a trivial task.\nNot only does a trader need to\nknow how much money the\nsystem has made but also how\nthe system made the money. A\nsystem may be extremely profitable,\nbut if it does not match\nthe preferences of the trader\nusing it, the trader may not\ntake advantage of its capabilities\nand in turn be disappointed with the results. Evaluating\na trading system is also necessary from a technical point of\nview to calculate the system’s performance characteristics to\nbe able to improve on them later. Efficiency of trading serves exactly that purpose."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-461-464-evaluating-sysem-efficiency-by-leo-zamansky-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-461-464-evaluating-sysem-efficiency-by-leo-zamansky-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-461-464-evaluating-sysem-efficiency-by-leo-zamansky-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c10-measuri-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:10 (465-467): Measuring the Move by Michael Kahn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Chartists often use techniques to set profit objectives as well as determine their risk points in putting on a trade. Here, then, are some guidelines for your own trading.
When a market breaks out of a\ntechnical trading pattern, traders\nneed to correctly gauge potential\nprice moves against the risk of\nbeing wrong. Most patterns reveal\nthe market’s intentions in\ntheir own shapes and sizes. Two,\nand sometimes three, price targets\ncan be forecast with a simple\nassessment of the pattern itself.\nMeasuring potential price moves works for all patterns and\nall time frames, thus aiding traders in their pursuit of profit.\nBut first, we need to review the basics of supportÝ and\nresistanceÝ. Simply stated, support and resistance are price\nlevels at which prices stop going down or up, respectively. A\nprice in any market is one that buyers and sellers have agreed is fair value. If more buyers think that price is fair, they will attempt to buy. This, in turn, raises demand, and so prices rise. As prices rise, buyers become less active while sellers become more active. At some point, buyer and seller activity will balance, and this price level becomes resistance. The more times a market touches a level of resistance (or support), the more significant that level will become because buyers and sellers do not perceive fair value to be any higher (or lower) than that level. The market will have difficulty in rising (or falling) any further unless something occurs that causes perceived fair value to change."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-465-467-measuring-the-move-by-michael-kahn-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-465-467-measuring-the-move-by-michael-kahn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-465-467-measuring-the-move-by-michael-kahn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c10-onbalan-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:10 (468-471): On-Balance Volume by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The on-balance volume indicator is a technical tool that\ntraders use to determine the trend of volume. Here are the\nbasics.
The interplay of price and volume\nis the combination that is most\ndiscussed in traditional technical\nanalysis. In these discussions,\nvolume either confirms or does\nnot confirm price movement by\nits expansion or contraction from\nprevailing values. Analysts examine\nthe wildly fluctuating bar charts\nusually shown below price graphs\nto determine whether volume is truly expanding or contracting.
To smooth the fluctuations in volume and also provide an\noverall indicator of price direction, trader Joseph Granville\nproposed in 1976 that volume should simply be summed each\nday according to whether the price went up or down. If the\nprice went up from close to close, the day’s volume would be\nadded to the running total. If price went down, on the other\nhand, the day’s volume would be subtracted from the running\ntotal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-468-471-on-balance-volume-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-468-471-on-balance-volume-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-10-468-471-on-balance-volume-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c11-usingfi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (477-482) Using Fibonacci Ratios and Momentum by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Don't buy it here, but wait for a pullback. Are you familiar with that piece of sage advice? Or what about \""I would wait and sell on a bounce\""? What does this really mean? Where and when do you act? Here's one technique for calculating retracement levels using that tried-and-true favorite Fibonacci ratios, as well as using momentum to define the trend.
\nMarkets trend in a zigzag manner:\nrallying, leveling off, and surging\nagain, only to be hit by a\nwave of profit-taking before settling\ninto a trading range, awaiting\nthe next reason to advance or retreat. This activity\ncarries on in the general direction of the trend, easily\nseen on a price chart. Technically, the trend should be\nconsidered up as long as the market unfolds with a\nseries of higher lows and higher highs. Similarly, the\ntrend is considered down if the price action is a series\nof lower lows, with lower highs before each new low.\nA market is considered not to be in a trend if the price\nmovement manifests itself in a series of fits and starts\nor if it fails to sustain levels beyond the previous\nextreme points, often reversing and forming the range.\nDuring an uptrend, good traders will buy the pull-backs,\npositioning themselves with the trend, taking\nadvantage of the market’s tendency to ebb and flow.\nWhen the market is in a downtrend, however, the strategy\nis to sell rallies, awaiting for the downtrend to resume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-477-482-using-fibonacci-ratios-and-momentum-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-477-482-using-fibonacci-ratios-and-momentum-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-477-482-using-fibonacci-ratios-and-momentum-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c11-stockma-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (483-487): Stock Market Déjà Vu? by K.D. Angle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The more things change, the more they remain the same. This\nmoney manager compares today’s economic situation with\nthe 1920s and finds some interesting parallels.
\nAs computers continue to dictate\nmany of the trading decisions of\nthe 1990s in both the stock and\nfutures markets, fundamental\neconomic data appears to have\nless and less relevance in the\ndaily heat of market trading.\nHowever, when you step back\nand take a look at the big picture,\nit makes more sense to examine\nsome of the economic factors that contribute to a market\npsychology, for, in spite of technical analysis, there is a\npsychology to the markets that ultimately determines price\ndirection.\nI have operated in the leveraged medium of futures for\nnearly two decades, so for me, success is more dependent on\nthe timing of a particular trade rather than on any particular assumptions I may have from evaluating the fundamental\nsupply and demand factors. Consequently, because I base my\ntrading decisions on mathematical concepts, I could be placed\nin the technical camp of trading and market analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-483-487-stock-market-d-j-vu-by-k-d-angle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-483-487-stock-market-d-j-vu-by-k-d-angle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-483-487-stock-market-d-j-vu-by-k-d-angle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c11-thetbon-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (488- 496) The T-Bond Futures & Stock Market Breadth System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market timers develop models to decide when to be in the\nstock market and when to be out. These models can be based\non theories that range from simple technical analysis to\ncomplex econometric models. With that in mind, here’s a\ntiming model based on the market performance of a particular\ninterest rate futures contract combined with a set of\ntechnical indicators.
According to many market pundits,\nbuy and hold is the best\nway for an individual to create\nwealth from the stock market.\nIf you were to review the history\nof the stock market, however,\nyou would see that\nthe buy-and-hold approach\nrequires considerable intesti-nal\nfortitude, as bear markets\nare not an easy thing to live\nthrough. One approach is to use a market timing model in\nhopes of forgoing the challenge of coping with bear markets\nand yet participate in the bull markets. The model would\nsignal when to be invested and when to move to the sidelines.\nToward that end, the model should be developed with specific\nrules as well as show a mathematical historical advantage\nto capturing a reasonable portion of a bull market but\nkeeping risk at a tolerable level. In this article I explain one market timing model, as well as the steps I undertook in its development."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-488-496-the-t-bond-futures-stock-market-breadth-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-488-496-the-t-bond-futures-stock-market-breadth-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-488-496-the-t-bond-futures-stock-market-breadth-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv149a,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (497-504): Adding The Human Element To Neural Nets by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D. with Donna L. McCormick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Adding The Human Element\nTo Neural Nets by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., with Donna L. McCormick
Is it possible to train a neural network to \""see\"" the way you\nand I do? These Contributing Writers walk you through their\nresearch in selecting chart-based trading points by hand and\nthen training the neural network to repeat the process.
In the November 1996 article \""On\ndeveloping trading systems,\"" I\ndemonstrated that neural network\ntechnology no longer works well\nwhen used in a manner employing\nbrute force. To demonstrate, I\ntrained a neural network to directly\npredict price change over\nthe next several bars and achieved\npoor results, as expected. I speculated\nthat the reason neural network technology no longer\nworks well when applied in a crude fashion is because too\nmany traders took the neural net approach and made the\nmarkets efficient relative to such techniques. However, if\napplied in a manner consistent with its capabilities and\ntargeted at unique problems, neural network technology can\nbe highly effective. Let us, then, explore a different approach\nto training a neural network. This time, I will train neural\nnetworks to emulate my subjective recognition of chart\npatterns.
When looking at charts, I often feel that I can intuitively\nidentify good entry points based on visually recognizable\npatterns. One pattern I look for is a pullback in a trend, in\nwhich the market is clearly moving in a given direction before\nit undergoes a small correction - that is, a pullback - before\ncontinuing. Could a neural net be trained to automatically\nperform the same process of recognition that I believe I can\naccomplish by eye? Such an application of the technology\nmight be a more appropriate use of neural networks than\ntrying to train a neural net to directly predict the market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-497-504-adding-the-human-element-to-neural-nets-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-with-donna-l-mccormick-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-497-504-adding-the-human-element-to-neural-nets-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-with-donna-l-mccormick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-497-504-adding-the-human-element-to-neural-nets-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-with-donna-l-mccormick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c11-cycleme-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (505-509) Cycle Measurements by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The author of Mesa and Trading Cycles and developer of the\nMESA software series presents why you should dynamically\nadjust your indicators due to the change in market cycles.
There’s no doubt about it: Market\ncycles can be difficult to identify.\nBut if they can be measured,\nthe payoff can be substantial. By\nmeasuring cycles, we have an\nindependent parameter that frees\nus from using static indicators\nsuch as stochastics, the relative\nstrength indicator (RSI), moving\naverage convergence/divergence\n(MACD) or even moving averages with fixed settings. Mea-suring\ncycles enable us to dynamically adjust these indicators\nto current market conditions.\nCurrently, there are three popular methods to identify\nmarket cycles, and these are cycle finders, Fourier trans-formsÝ\nand maximum entropy spectral analysisÝ (MESA).\nCycle finders, which are included in virtually all indicator\ntoolbox software programs, basically measure the spacing\nbetween successive lowest lows (or other identifiable places\nin the cycle) and in general depend on finding an average\nvalue across a number of cycles."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-505-509-cycle-measurements-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-505-509-cycle-measurements-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-505-509-cycle-measurements-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c11-timings-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (510-515) Interview Bernie Schaeffer by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Bernie Schaeffer, president of the Investment Research Institute, is best known as the senior editor of The Option Advisor, the largest-circulation options newsletter in the US. He is also senior editor of Fund Profit Alert and Schaeffer's Research Review newsletters. Schaeffer made the Dick Davis Hall of Fame for being bearish ahead of the stock market correction in 1987, and since then, he has been steadfastly and correctly bullish, in large part to his use of sentiment-based indicators that helped him recently to garner the Market Technicians Association's Best of the Best award in sentiment and psychological analysis; in addition, he has a book due out even as you read this from John Wiley & Sons entitled The Option Advisor: Wealth-Building Techniques Using Equity and Index Options. So how's he view the market these days? To find out, Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Schaeffer via telephone on August 19, 1997.
How did you start out in the\nbusiness?\nI had always been fascinated\nwith the stock market,\ndating back to my years growing up\nin New York City. I remember my dad\ntaking me to the visitors’ gallery at the\nNew York Stock Exchange and watching\nthe ticker tape go by. Those were the\ndays when you could actually look at a\nticker tape and run the paper through\nyour fingers. I remember one particular\nscene on the floor of the NYSE. There\nwas a problem in Central America that\naffected United Fruit Co. It was pandemonium\nat the trading post for United\nFruit, and that scene always stuck with\nme because it was exciting seeing the\nkind of feverish pitch of activity that\ncan occur in the stock market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-510-515-interview-bernie-schaeffer-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-510-515-interview-bernie-schaeffer-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-510-515-interview-bernie-schaeffer-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c11-theweek-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (516-521) The Weekly Reversal by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What's a weekly reversal and how does it work? Here's a refresher on this intriguing formation.
Maybe you’ve felt it. Every once in\na while, you feel really good.\nYou begin to believe that you know\neverything there is to know about\na subject. You know that’s not\ntrue, but the feeling persists. And\nsuch was the case when I started\nreading analyst John Murphy’s\nlatest work, The Visual Investor.\nAfter reading the first chapter,\nhowever, I knew I was wrong; I didn’t know everything there\nwas to know about technical analysis. I discovered weekly\nreversals. So what are they and how well do they really work?\nI decided to find out.
\nWHAT’S A WEEKLY REVERSAL?
\nMurphy defines a weekly reversal and shows two examples:\nThe weekly reversal is another simple market formation that’s\nworth looking out for. An upside weekly reversal occurs during\na market decline and can be seen only on a weekly bar chart. A stock starts the week with a lot of selling and usually breaks\nunder some type of support level. By week’s end, however,\nprices have turned dramatically upward and close above the\nprevious week’s price range. The wider the weekly price bar, and\nthe heavier the trading volume, the greater the significance of the\nturnaround."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-516-521-the-weekly-reversal-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-516-521-the-weekly-reversal-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-516-521-the-weekly-reversal-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c11-onmovin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (522-524): On Moving Averages by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""It's been around forever, and it's a tried-and-true favorite. It's also the source of great frustration. How can anything end up as both? Here are the basics for using moving averages to identify the trend in the market.
No technique is more frequently\nused — or more maligned — than\nmoving averages of prices. It’s\nused frequently because it’s the\nembodiment of a fundamental\ntrading rule: Go with, not against,\nchanging prices. Averages can’t\nhelp themselves; they always go\nin the proper direction, not sooner\nbut later. Hence, the malignment:\nSince averages’ movement lagsÝ price action, their indica-tions\nfor trading will be late and perhaps, therefore, unprof-itable.\nHow to make the most of these artificial constructs?
\nSOMETHING RELIABLE
\nFirst off, in contrast to, say, trendlines, it is important to\nrecognize that averages are a mathematical construct. There-fore,\nthey will be computed with robotic catatonia, no matter\nwhat the current hysteria. While trendlines, arcs and circles\nare usually personal visual constructs, it is their mathematical\nabstraction that gives indicators their attraction and validity.\nThough an indicator can be thrown by data quirks that a\nhuman might — might! — ignore, the good side to this\nunquestioning use of data is that the indicator ignores noth-ing,\nan error that humans, prone to ignoring bad news anyway,\nroutinely commit."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-522-524-on-moving-averages-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-522-524-on-moving-averages-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-522-524-on-moving-averages-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv152t,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (525-527) Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here is this month's selection of Traders' Tips, contributed\nby various developers of technical analysis software to help\nreaders more easily implement some of the strategies presented.\nInternet users will also find these and some previous\nTraders’ Tips on our home page at http://www.Traders.com.
TRADESTATION
The focus of this month's Traders' Tips is the article \""Using\nFibonacci ratios and momentum\"" by STOCKS & COMMODITIES\nEditor Thom Hartle. In this TradeStation implementation, we'll\nfocus on the RSI-based oscillator described in the article.
In TradeStation, Fibonacci bands can be applied using the\nsupport/resistance drawing tool. In addition, a standard RSI\nindicator is built into the program. For Traders' Tips this\nmonth, I have developed an oscillator-type directional indicator\nthat's based on the RSI calculation and its relation to 50.\nIn addition, I have developed two PaintBar Studies, which are\nalso based on the RSI and its relation to 50.
This version of the RSI oscillator indicator basically transforms\nthe typical RSI into a zero-based oscillator. Values\nabove the equal line represent RSI values above 50. Values\nbelow the equal line represent RSI values below 50. If the\nhistogram input is set to y, the zero-based RSI values will be\ndisplayed in a histogram format. If the line input is set to y, the\nzero-based RSI values will be displayed in line format. In\naddition, if the alert feature is enabled, an alert will be\ntriggered if the RSI-based value crosses above or below zero.
This indicator can be written in the TradeStation Power\nEditor as follows. The suggested format settings for this\nindicator are outlined after the code.
Type: Indicator
Name: RSI Oscillator
Inputs: Price(Close), RSILen(14), Histgram(\""Y\""), Line(\""Y\"");
Vars: RSIVal(0);"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-525-527-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-525-527-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-525-527-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q586-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:11 (586): Quick Scans: By the Numbers by Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""By the Numbers (Stephen D. Slifer and W. Stansbury Carnes) by Bruce Faber
By the Numbers is a well-written and\nsuperbly illustrated reference work. Its\nfocus is not only on the economic indicators,\nbut the operations of the Federal\nReserve as well. Anyone who needs or\ndesires to understand the hows and whys\nof either subject will find their champions\nin Stephen Slifer and W. Stansbury\nCarnes, the authors of this work. Slifer\nhas worked for the Board of Governors\nof the Federal System as a senior economist\nand is currently Lehman Brothers’\nchief financial market economist, while\nCarnes is Smith Barney’s senior taxable\nfixed-income strategist. This collaboration\nbrings vast knowledge to the reader.\nAnyone with even the most novice\nknowledge of these subjects will find\nthis book an easy read filled with charts\nthat make the subjects clear."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-586-quick-scans-by-the-numbers-by-bruce-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-586-quick-scans-by-the-numbers-by-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-11-586-quick-scans-by-the-numbers-by-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-newtric-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (529-534): New Tricks With the Dogs of the Dow by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""“The Dogs of the Dow,” a popular strategy based on\npurchasing the highest-yielding stocks each year, is\nreviewed here using a longer lookback period than\noriginally used, as well as detailed analyses of the\nrisks and rewards.
On Beating the Dow, Michael\nO’Higgins and John Downes\noutlined two high-yield strategies\nthat achieve substantially\ngreater returns than the Dow\nJones Industrial Average (DJIA) with less risk. Here’s\na statistical analysis of these strategies, extending the\nstudy period back to 1957. The two main strategies to\nanalyze the DJIA are simple. Each year, buy equal\ndollar amounts of either the 10 DJIA stocks with the\nhighest yield (the “Dogs of the Dow”) or the five\nlowest-priced of the 10 highest-yielding (the “Flying\nFive”) and hold for one year. One year later, re-sort\nthe Dow industrials and make any necessary purchases\nor sales so that you hold equal dollar amounts\nof the indicated stocks. Total investment time: about\n15 minutes a year."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-529-534-new-tricks-with-the-dogs-of-the-dow-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-529-534-new-tricks-with-the-dogs-of-the-dow-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-529-534-new-tricks-with-the-dogs-of-the-dow-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-theinve-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (535-539): The Investor Preference Index by Cyril V. Smith Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""This indicator, a long-term stock market investment tool,\ncompares the performance of the S&P 500 to the New York\nStock Exchange index to measure sentiment. The theory is\nthat investors have a preference for certain types of invest-ments, blue chips versus mid-cap, during phases of a bull\nmarket. See what this indicator says lies ahead.
No financial topic has evoked more\ninterest in recent years than predicting\nwhen the current bull market\nin stocks will end. On one side\nof the argument are the buy-and-hold\nadherents, whose methodology\nhas scored remarkable success\nsince the early 1980s. To\nthem, a correction may be inevitable\nbut immaterial, since the\nlong-term trend is up. Those on the other side of the argument\n— the market timers — have attempted to call when the bull\nmarket high will occur, but have had little success to date.\nMarket experts have attempted to call the top based on the\nprice series alone, using such techniques as Elliott wave\ntheory and chart formations, including the broadening top\npattern. An influential group has relied on traditional market\nguidelines such as price/earnings ratios to point out that by\nthese standards, the market is overvalued and due for a\ncorrection. And some Wall Street gurus have relied on\nproprietary economic analyses to call a top. Late in 1996,\nFederal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan used the\nterm bubble to characterize the current market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-535-539-the-investor-preference-index-by-cyril-v-smith-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-535-539-the-investor-preference-index-by-cyril-v-smith-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-535-539-the-investor-preference-index-by-cyril-v-smith-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (540-543): Trading Without Limits by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Self-discipline is the key to success in any field. Traders\nespecially need to maintain discipline to manage themselves\nduring good times and bad. Here are some of the key issues\non how to keep yourself in line.
The list of personal qualities required\nto build a successful trading\ncareer (or a successful career\nin any area of the financial\nand investing world, for that\nmatter) sometimes appears to be\nendless. However, one quality\nis always first on the list: self-discipline.\nSelf-discipline is, in\nturn, composed of many parts, the cornerstone of which is the\nability to set limits.\nSetting limits can be viewed in many ways — as an ability\nor an innate talent, as a gift, as a willingness or personal\ndecision, an inner discipline, or even as a virtue to be\ndeveloped through personal commitment. However you define\nthe quality of setting limits, without it, success is either\nan elusive dream or a temporary condition. Further, many\npeople seem to have areas in their lives in which they can set\nlimits and other areas in which they are incapable of doing so.\nSuch a dichotomy is often seen as the ability of a person to\nset limits in his professional life while being unable to set\nlimits in his personal life. A prime example are the fabulously\nsuccessful stars of the entertainment and professional sports\nindustries who have lost it all or have tragedy fall upon them\ndue to their inability to set limits on their personal indul-gences:\nfrom Fatty Arbuckle to Elvis Presley, John Belushi,\nMama Cass and Janis Joplin, all the way to Mike Tyson."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-540-543-trading-without-limits-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-540-543-trading-without-limits-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-540-543-trading-without-limits-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-timeand-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (544-547): Time and Options Probabilities by John A. Sarkett"",""caption-linebreaks"":""For traders who want to use options to hedge their long\npositions, here are the formulas for calculating the prob-abilities.
What’s the probability that Intel\n[INTC] will be above 110 at a\ncertain point? Three months from\nnow, six months, a year? If you\nwere to ask random-walk partisans,\nthey would be likely to tell\nyou, “There’s no way to know.”\nYou would get the same answer\nfrom those who disparage market\ntimers. But change the time\nframe to a more manageable short-term window — say, the\nweek or two before the very next options expiration — and a\nlittle-known formula would be able to give you the exact\nmathematical probability.\nTime is the key. Filter with technical indicators such as\ntrend, moving average, oscillators and your own judgment,\nand you can use the estimated probability to your advantage\nby selling out-of-the-moneyÝ option premiums. Typically,\nthe odds will favor your sale about 66% of the time, leaving\njust a 33% possibility that the buyer on the other side will\nactually call away your stock. Lending further credence to\nthis strategy, economists at the Options Clearing Corp. report that, on average, 67% of all options expire at zero or at a loss."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-544-547-time-and-options-probabilities-by-john-a-sarkett-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-544-547-time-and-options-probabilities-by-john-a-sarkett-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-544-547-time-and-options-probabilities-by-john-a-sarkett-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-onthefu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (548-555): On the Fundamentals of Technical Analysis Andrew Lo by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Andrew Lo, Harris & Harris Group Professor of Finance at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's (MIT) Sloan School of Management, director of MIT's Laboratory for Financial Engineering and founder of Sloan's Track in Financial Engineering, is a radical of sorts because of his frank and open interest in technical analysis. Further, he's an academic who's perfectly willing to admit that technicians are often more open-minded about the markets than the academics who are his peers. But he'll also tell you that technicians are getting too far away from the fundamentals of technical analysis, and getting overly enamored with the modern bells and whistles. To find out what else Lo had to say, Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle spoke with him via telephone on September 22, 1997, discussing technical analysis of yore, why statistics are misapplied and how artificial intelligence may not be the great end-all that it's proclaimed to be. By Thom Hartle"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-548-555-on-the-fundamentals-of-technical-analysis-andrew-lo-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-548-555-on-the-fundamentals-of-technical-analysis-andrew-lo-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-548-555-on-the-fundamentals-of-technical-analysis-andrew-lo-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-identif-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (556-560): Identifying Trends with Volume Analysis by Stephen J. Klinger, CMT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here’s a new twist on volume analysis, with a volume-based\nindicator for identifying meaningful trends.
Technicians recognize the importance\nof volume analysis and its\napplication to price movement as\nrequisite to any serious examination\nof stocks and market averages.\nWhile price is the most important\ndimension of market\nanalysis, how prices move is a\nfunction of the intensity of volume\nthat produced it. The true\nmeasure of durability behind price movement is most readily\navailable through volume data. Since volume is a proxy for\nmoney flow, volume analysis can expose the internal dynamics\n— the strengths and weaknesses — of price action.\nFrequently, volume divergences exist beneath the cover of\nprice action and provide the only evidence of an impending\nreversal. Moreover, since volume is thought to precede price,\nits usefulness as a leading indicator of price strength or\nweakness can result in a more accurate assessment of price\naction. Finally, by converting volume statistics into an effective\ntiming model, technicians would be better able to gauge\nthe validity of a given price movement."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-556-560-identifying-trends-with-volume-analysis-by-stephen-j-klinger-cmt-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-556-560-identifying-trends-with-volume-analysis-by-stephen-j-klinger-cmt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-556-560-identifying-trends-with-volume-analysis-by-stephen-j-klinger-cmt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-thestoc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (561-564): The Stochastic Oscillator by Joe Luisi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The stochastic oscillator is one of the more popular indica-tors\navailable on today’s software. This technical tool tells\nyou where the current closing price is relative to the recent\nrange of the market. Here are some techniques for using this\nclassic indicator.
First introduced by George Lane in\nthe 1970s, the stochastic indicator\nhas become one of the more\npopular technical indicators\naround. Pages upon pages have\nbeen devoted to explaining the\nindicator and how it works. Further,\njust about every technical\nanalysis software product available\ntoday offers this indicator.\nThe stochastic oscillator was designed to indicate when a\nmarket becomes overbought or oversold within a trading\nrange. The indicator produces readings between zero and\n100. As initially proposed, readings over 70 indicate an\noverbought market. The term overbought describes a situa-tion\nin which the market has run up quickly due to an influx\nof buyers. Eventually, the market reaches a price level high\nenough that traders feel uncomfortable buying. Then, as\nsellers enter the market to take profits, prices start to fall."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-561-564-the-stochastic-oscillator-by-joe-luisi-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-561-564-the-stochastic-oscillator-by-joe-luisi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-561-564-the-stochastic-oscillator-by-joe-luisi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-highvol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (565-567): High Volatililty And Market Turns by William Brower, CTA"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Does an increase in volatility indicate a market top? This\nhistorical look offers some insights.
Back in 1994, it was exciting for\ntraders watching the Standard &\nPoor’s 500 index to get a true\nrange day of four full points or\nbetter. These days, that small a\ndaily range is rare; instead, we\nare becoming accustomed to true\nrange days that are 10 and 15 full\npoints. Is today’s volatility unusually\nhigh by historical standards?\nAnd more important, can high volatility be used to\npredict major market turns?\nI wanted to look at data going back to the crash of 1929. I\nchose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), as imperfect\nas it is, as my market proxy. The problem with the DJIA is that\nits components have changed so radically since then that it\ndoesn’t really represent the industrial sector anymore.\nIn addition, the DJIA may be a poor proxy for the broad\nmarket today, because momentum and index-driven funds\ntrade DJIA stocks. Further, the large-capitalization stocks\nmay be more volatile than the rest of the market. In fact, the\nDJIA can move in directions different from the broad market as\nmeasured by indices such as the NASDAQ or the Russell 2000.\nHowever, the capitalization of the DJIA is a substantial\nportion of the overall market. That, coupled with the longev-ity\nof the DJIA history, makes it one of the few indices we can\nuse to perform long-term analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-565-567-high-volatililty-and-market-turns-by-william-brower-cta-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-565-567-high-volatililty-and-market-turns-by-william-brower-cta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-565-567-high-volatililty-and-market-turns-by-william-brower-cta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-revers-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (568-571): Reverse Divergences and Momentum by Martin J. Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""An oscillator’s failure to confirm the higher high or the lower\nlow of the market is a red flag to most technical traders. Is\nthere a message when the price diverges from the indicator?\nThis veteran technician thinks there is.
Technical analysts are constantly\ncomparing prices and indicators\nto see whether they are moving in\ngear or if there are discrepancies.\nIt’s when discrepancies appear\nthat an alert to a probable change\nin trend is given. Most traders are\nfamiliar with the concept of momentum\nindicators experiencing\npositiveandnegativedivergences\nwith price. For instance, as you can see in Figure 1, momen-tum\nmakes a series of declining peaks as the price works its\nway higher. This indicates that the underlying momentum is\ngradually dissipating, signaling that a peak in the price may be\nat hand. The opposite set of conditions would be true for a\ndeclining trend. The problem with divergences is that you never\nknow how many to expect prior to the actual trend reversal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-568-571-reverse-divergences-and-momentum-by-martin-j-pring-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-568-571-reverse-divergences-and-momentum-by-martin-j-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-568-571-reverse-divergences-and-momentum-by-martin-j-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c12-newdime-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (572-577): New Dimensions In Market Charts by Salvatore J. Chiappone, DDS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Like the markets, technical analysis evolves. This article\ndetails the construction and use of bar-chart types beginning\nwith a short review of older forms — bar charts, candlesticks\nand Equivolume — and a presentation of two new forms,\nflagbars and timebars.
The market is a profit-and-loss\ndrama; rewards await for those\nwho read it right, and penalties\nfor those who read it wrong.\nMastering various techniques\nis key, and the first step is to be\nfamiliar with charting forms —\nlearn what they do and use them\nto fit a need. Charts and their\nspecific forms graphically represent\nthe activity taking place in the markets. By studying\nchart patterns, investors and traders identify formations that\ncan become the basis for their buy-and-sell systems.\nIn the real world, there is no ideal bar form. Different types\nof charting offer varying measures to understanding pattern\nformations. This article peruses the old, discusses the new\nand includes the following types:
The old:\n• Bar charts\n• Candlesticks\n• Equivolume charts
The new:\n• Flagbar charts\n• Timebar charts"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-572-577-new-dimensions-in-market-charts-by-salvatore-j-chiappone-dds-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-572-577-new-dimensions-in-market-charts-by-salvatore-j-chiappone-dds-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-572-577-new-dimensions-in-market-charts-by-salvatore-j-chiappone-dds-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v157tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12 (578-579): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""METASTOCK
In “High volatility and market turns” in this issue, William\nBrower uses a historical market lookback to show how\nvolatility readings can help predict turns in the market. The\nindicator he presents, volatility%, is used to analyze the true\nrange of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and thus\ncompare the historical market with today’s market.\nIn MetaStock for Windows, you can easily recreate the\nvolatility% indicator from Brower’s article. First, choose\nIndicator Builder from the Tools menu in MetaStock."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-578-579-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-578-579-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-578-579-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1letv1letto,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:12: Letters V15:12: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTER FROM JOHN BOLLINGER
\nEditor,
The conventional interpretation of\nBollinger bands is not overbought at the\nupper band and oversold at the lower\nband, as the Tezels assert in “On using\nvolatility bands” (STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nOctober 1997).\nBollinger bands provide a relative\ndefinition of high and low that can be\nused in the interpretation of indicators\nto arrive at trading decisions. If a tag of\nthe upper band is accompanied by confirmation\nfrom an appropriately specified\nindicator, higher — not lower —\nprices are called for. If that same tag\nwere unconfirmed then lower prices\nwould be expected. The Tezels’ assertion\nis insupportable; tags of the bands\nwithout reference to indicators are meaningless. Further, the Tezels’MAAVPB is nothing more than\nan 11-day, 1.7 standard deviation\nBollinger band.\nOne last note: As the\nTezels correctly observe,\ncloses outside of the bands\nare continuation signals. This\nwas covered in the earliest\nBollinger band literature.\nJOHN BOLLINGER, CFA, CMT
Thank you for writing. We’d\nlove to hear more in the form\nof an article! —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-letters-v15-12-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-letters-v15-12-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-12-letters-v15-12-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q581-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (581): Quick Scans: Trading the Rebound Gap by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick Scans: Trading the Rebound Gap by John Sweeney
With the proliferation of trading systems\non heavyweight hardware and software\nhas come the decline of simple\nsystems you can use with just a pencil.\nWith no public evidence that rocket\nscience has changed the investment\nworld, it might be profitable to look at\nsomething you can actually understand,\nsuch as Trading the Rebound Gap.
A rebound gap is formed when a\ntradable opens beyond the previous\nday’s range (that is, higher/lower than\nthe previous day’s high/low), then closes\nwithin the previous day’s range. The\ngap evinces that the market is moving\naggressively at the opening, then being\npulled up short and retreating back into\nthe previous day’s price range. It’s a\ncurtailment of speculative enthusiasm.\nExploiting this psychological phenomenon\nis the subject of Richard Bearse’s\nbook."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-581-quick-scans-trading-the-rebound-gap-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-581-quick-scans-trading-the-rebound-gap-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-581-quick-scans-trading-the-rebound-gap-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q584a-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (584): Quick Scans: Event Trading by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Event Trading (Ben Warwick) by John Sweeney
Few people are greater advocates of\nstatistically capturing trading experience\nthan I am, so when Ben Warwick\nin Event Trading proposes that we measure\nthe results of trading from surprises\nthat the market gets, I’m on board\nfrom the start. While most traders are\nfamiliar with the earnings surprise idea\n(that is, when the news differs from\nwhat’s expected, trade the reaction for\nup to 90 days), Warwick has done the\ngroundwork for exploiting commodities\nsurprises: economic news releases.
Using a straightforward breakout rule\n(a market closes in the extreme 20% of\nits range on the day of release of one of nine regularly published government\neconomic reports), Warwick profiles\nthe results for the upside and downside\nbreakouts of the Standard & Poor’s 500,\nTreasury bonds, Eurodollars and the\ndollar index. I appreciated his frankness;\nhe points out where the information\nis solid and where it’s not (“anomalous,”\nin his view)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-584-quick-scans-event-trading-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-584-quick-scans-event-trading-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-584-quick-scans-event-trading-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q584b-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (584-585): Quick Scans: McMillan on Options by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""McMillan on Options (Lawrence G. McMillan) by John Sweeney
Lawrence G. McMillan is a genuinely\nimpressive individual. Every time\nMcMillan writes a book, it’s a classic.\nHis latest, McMillan on Options, is right\nup there with Options as a Strategic\nInvestment, the now-standard reference\nfor all options players and currently in\nits third edition. Even his newsletter,\nThe Options Strategist, is a practical\nmust-read for active options players.
Mind you, McMillan on Options isn’t\na replay of Strategic Investment. The latter is an exhaustive but abstract explanation\nof options strategies, whereas\nthis book focuses on the intensely practical.\nIt sounds a lot like the discussions\nin the newsletter: specific tactics and\nstrategies with specific examples.\nMcMillan even throws in 11 or 12 trading\nsystems he feels are unusually (but,\nof course, not perfectly) reliable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-584-585-quick-scans-mcmillan-on-options-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-584-585-quick-scans-mcmillan-on-options-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-584-585-quick-scans-mcmillan-on-options-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q585-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (585): Quick Scans: How to Start Your Own Commodities Trading Business by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How to Start Your Own Commodities Trading Business (Averill Strasser) by John Sweeney
Treating futures trading as a business\nwould certainly help retail and professional\nparticipants. Many would-be\ncommodities advisors wash out from their lack of homework and many also\nrun into trouble with the regulators, both\nfederal and industry-level, for inappropriate\nsolicitation. And that’s before the nuts\nand bolts of making good decisions on a\ndaily basis in the markets!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-585-quick-scans-how-to-start-your-own-commodities-trading-business-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-585-quick-scans-how-to-start-your-own-commodities-trading-business-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-585-quick-scans-how-to-start-your-own-commodities-trading-business-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q587-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (587): Quick Scans: What Works on Wall Street by Staff Writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What Works on Wall Street (James P. O'Shaughnessy) by Staff Writer
Currently, we’re in a financial climate in\nwhich there are more mutual funds than\nthere are stocks in the New York Stock\nExchange (NYSE), where 80% of professional\nmutual fund managers fail to\nyield more than the Standard & Poor’s\n500 index. Thus, today’s prudent investor\nneeds to know, quite literally, What\nWorks on Wall Street. James O’Shaughnessy,\nfounder and president of\nO’Shaughnessy Capital Management,\nstudied 44 years of S&P CompuStat\ndata, compiling a noteworthy volume of\ninformation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-587-quick-scans-what-works-on-wall-street-by-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-587-quick-scans-what-works-on-wall-street-by-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-587-quick-scans-what-works-on-wall-street-by-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q588-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (588): Quick Scans: What Works on Wall Street- The Software by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What Works on Wall Street - The Software (James P. O'Shaughnessy) by John Sweeney
Jim O’Shaughnessy just keeps coming\nat you. First there was the book (What\nWorks on Wall Street, McGraw-Hill),\nthen the interview (STOCKS & COM-MODITIES,\nNovember 1996) and the talk shows, and now there’s What Works on\nWall Street — The Software. Not content\nwith telling you what investment\nstrategies have enjoyed success in the\npast, O’Shaughnessy’s had all those\nstrategies considered in his book codified\non disk and, for less than $50, you\ncan load them on your computer for\nefficient exploration. (The professional\nversion, we’re told, includes history of\nthe “dogs of the Dow,” which, despite\nwhat you may think, refers to top performers.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-588-quick-scans-what-works-on-wall-street-the-software-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-588-quick-scans-what-works-on-wall-street-the-software-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-588-quick-scans-what-works-on-wall-street-the-software-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q589-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (589): Quick Scans: Topline Encyclopedia of Historical Charts by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Topline Encyclopedia of Historical Charts (Topline Investment Graphics) by John Sweeney
John Carder is a self-described “nitpicking\nperfectionist” who decided that\nthe charts he was making for himself\nwere the proper way to display investment\ninformation, and others might find\nthem of interest as well. A disciple of\ngraphic design guru Edward R. Tufte, he\nwas producing log-scale charts of most\nconceivable historical series when his\nwork came to the attention of the newsletter\nindustry. The result? Since 1988,\nCarder’s charts have shown up in a variety\nof newsletters ranging from the Elliott\nWave Theorist to the Gold Stock Analyst.
Haven’t you ever wanted to compare\nMoody’s Aaa bonds, PPI, Moody’s Baa,\ncommercial paper, and Moody’s Baa\nBonds Real Yields? Since 1928? If you\nhave, Topline Investment Graphics can\ngenerate the chart for you — on demand.\nAnd now they’ve taken that expertise\nand brought it to the retail sector."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-589-quick-scans-topline-encyclopedia-of-historical-charts-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-589-quick-scans-topline-encyclopedia-of-historical-charts-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-589-quick-scans-topline-encyclopedia-of-historical-charts-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q590-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (590): Quick Scans: Inside Advantage by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Inside Advantage (Ruggiero Associates) by John Sweeney
Every other month, Murray Ruggiero\npublishes an eight- to 12-page newsletter\non two of traders’ favorite topics:\ntrading system ideas and interviews with\ngurus. Although the quality of the material\nis uneven, the newsletter, Inside\nAdvantage, is written so concisely and\nto the point that even active traders will\nfind it likable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-590-quick-scans-inside-advantage-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-590-quick-scans-inside-advantage-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-590-quick-scans-inside-advantage-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q591-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (591): The Visual Investor - How to Spot Market Trends by Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Visual Investor - How to Spot Market Trends (John J. Murphy) by Bruce Faber
At last! Here’s a book about technical\nanalysis that doesn’t require you to be a\ntechnical analyst to understand! John\nMurphy’s The Visual Investor takes any\nnovice from the beginner through the\nadvanced intermediate stage. If you’ve\nseen one too many mysterious squiggly\nlines on charts or heard one too many\nconfusing conversations about the relationships\nbetween stocks and bonds,\nthen this is the book for you. Murphy\nthoroughly understands technical analysis.\nHe has written two other books,\nTechnical Analysis of the Futures Markets\nand Intermarket Technical Analysis,\nboth of which have been immensely\npopular and have received high praise.\nThis work deserves and is sure to receive\nsimilar praise."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-591-the-visual-investor-how-to-spot-market-trends-by-bruce-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-591-the-visual-investor-how-to-spot-market-trends-by-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-591-the-visual-investor-how-to-spot-market-trends-by-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q592-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (592): Learning the KST with Martin J. Pring by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick Scan: Learning the KST with Martin J. Pring (International Institute for Economic Research, Inc.) by John Sweeney
With all the different vehicles available\nfor publishing these days, it’s hard to\nknow which is the best choice for any\ngiven purpose, but of the many products\nwe see that aren’t the traditional forestbased\nproducts, the compact disc format\ncomes closest to ideal when it comes\nto instructional material. Now the International\nInstitute for Economic Research\n(IIER) has come out with the fifth in a\nseries of eight CD-ROMs meant to take\nthe learner from basic to advanced technical\nanalysis. Oddly, only the fifth CD\nof the series is available, although the\nother seven should be published by yearend\n1997."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-592-learning-the-kst-with-martin-j-pring-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-592-learning-the-kst-with-martin-j-pring-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-592-learning-the-kst-with-martin-j-pring-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q593-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (593): Quick Scans: Net Worth by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Net Worth, Creating and Maximizing Wealth with the Internet (Edward J. Renehan Jr.) by John Sweeney
If a publisher went on the Internet and\ntook screen captures from nearly all the\nfinancially related Web sites published\nin the US, surrounded them with some basic discussion on the subject that\neach addresses (for example, “What is\na bond?”) or with information about the\ncompany sponsoring each Web site,\nand published the collection of material\nas an encyclopedic reference to\n“creating and maximizing wealth on\nthe Internet,” wouldn’t readers love it?\nWouldn’t most companies jump at the\nchance to be included in such a book?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-593-quick-scans-net-worth-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-593-quick-scans-net-worth-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-593-quick-scans-net-worth-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q594-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (594): Quick Scans: Beyond Technical Analysis by Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Beyond Technical Analysis, How to Develop and Implement a Winning Trading System (Tushar S. Chande, Ph.D.) by Bruce Faber
If you have basic technical analysis skills\nand the capital necessary to trade commodities\nintraday, Beyond Technical\nAnalysis can help you develop a winning\ntrading system. Well illustrated with tables\nand graphs that show the results of different\ntrading system designs, this work thoroughly\npresents testing procedures for a\nvariety of commodity markets.
Roughly the first half of Beyond Technical\nAnalysis is devoted to incorporating\npast data to build, then test, a trading\nsystem. The rest of the book examines\ntesting for system profitability. Many systems\nand numerous variations are presented\nhere."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-594-quick-scans-beyond-technical-analysis-by-bruce-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-594-quick-scans-beyond-technical-analysis-by-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-594-quick-scans-beyond-technical-analysis-by-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q595-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (595): Quick Scans: The Pro-Vest Option Trading Method by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Pro-Vest Option Trading Method. Manual describing specific options trading guidelines. by John Sweeney
Putting the odds on your side is the\ngame in options trading. That so few\npeople can do this efficiently is evidence\nof the difficulty most folks have\nin dealing with uncertainty. Instead,\nmost traders, their shelves littered with\noptions texts, end up simply buying\nputs and calls, even though they know\nthat there are more enriching strategies.
Why do they do that? Jay Kaeppel, director of research for Essex Trading,\nmight argue that few books off the shelf\ngive the specifics of options trading,\nonly generic descriptions of positions.\nAs a result, he decided to publish a very\nspecific, step-by-step text on trading\noptions. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-595-quick-scans-the-pro-vest-option-trading-method-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-595-quick-scans-the-pro-vest-option-trading-method-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-595-quick-scans-the-pro-vest-option-trading-method-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q596-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (596): Quick Scans: A Trader's Astrological Almanac 1997 by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Trader's Astrological Almanac 1997 (Editor in chief Jeanne Long) by Thom Hartle
Over the years, I’ve studied numerous\nways to trade and invest, all with the\ngoal of improving my ability to buy low\nand sell high. To be honest, the idea of\ntracking astrological events as either a\ntrading tool or background support\nmethod seemed far-fetched. But it was\npointed out to me that my thinking may\nhave been influenced by my being a\nproduct of Western culture, which\ndoesn’t embrace astrology, and that\nother, older cultures do. To cut to the\nchase, I don’t know everything, which\nI’m perfectly willing to admit. Finally,\nI know people, traders whom I respect,\nwho believe in and use this method to\nlive and trade by."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-596-quick-scans-a-trader-s-astrological-almanac-1997-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-596-quick-scans-a-trader-s-astrological-almanac-1997-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-596-quick-scans-a-trader-s-astrological-almanac-1997-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q597-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (597): Quick Scans: Trader's Companion version 1.1 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trader's Companion Version 1.1, Pinpoint Applications. Software to download free futures data from Internet sources. by John Sweeney
If you want to be diligent about\nkeeping your trading overhead\nlow, one of the first places you\ncan check for supernumerary\nexpenses is your bill for raw\ndata. New traders or those with\na low activity level are often\nthe data customers who may\nnot be getting their money’s\nworth from commercial data\nservices: With today’s bulk\ndeals, you can easily end up\npaying as much to follow 20\nfutures contracts as someone\nfollowing 8,000 stocks. Meanwhile,\nthe data is freely available\non the Internet, but it’s often in formats that are difficult to handle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-597-quick-scans-trader-s-companion-version-1-1-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-597-quick-scans-trader-s-companion-version-1-1-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-597-quick-scans-trader-s-companion-version-1-1-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q598-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (598): Quick Scans: Campaign Trading by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Campaign Trading, Tactics and Strategies to Exploit the Markets (John Sweeney) by Thom Hartle
Among traders, every novice hears, every\nstudent learns and every veteran knows:\nCut your losses and let your profits run. It\nsounds so simple, yet following this adage\nrequires more than just serious thought:\nIt mandates serious analysis.
Am I referring to the Freudian version\nof analysis, delving into the personality\nof the trader? Not quite. It would\nbehoove us instead to study the personality\nof our trading systems. You probably\ndidn’t even realize that your system\nhad a personality, did you? Well, it does. Your system responds to events in\nthe marketplace with a certain degree of\npredictability. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-598-quick-scans-campaign-trading-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-598-quick-scans-campaign-trading-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-598-quick-scans-campaign-trading-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q599-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (599-600): Quick Scans: Gaming the Market by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Gaming the Market, Applying Game Theory to Create Winning Trading Strategies (Ronald B. Shelton) by John Sweeney
Here are some ideas to mull over: What\nif the market were a gamer whose objective\nwas to take all your money?\nWhat if you could determine the way\nthe market was going to behave and use\nthat knowledge to play against it?\nRon Shelton came up with this approach\ndoing thesis work in game theory\nwhile at Illinois State University. After\na stint on the Chicago Board of Trade\n(CBOT) floor, he turned to the insurance\nworld, where he now works up the odds\nfor large corporate risk management\naccounts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-599-600-quick-scans-gaming-the-market-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-599-600-quick-scans-gaming-the-market-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-599-600-quick-scans-gaming-the-market-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q600-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (600-601): Quick Scans: The Pitbull Investor by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Pitbull Investor (IMF Corporation). Manual detaililng a simple trading strategy. by John Sweeney
The Pitbull Investor bills itself\nas “a disciplined tactical\nstock investment system.”\nMy opinion? Strike the “investment”\nnotion: This is\ndelightful speculative material.\nIt’s a simple approach\nshooting for 200% return on\ninvestment. Plus, at $50 for\nthe idea and the procedure,\nit’s quite cheap in these days\nof $3,500 trading systems.
So is it worth $50? In the\ncurrent bull market, the return\non your investment is likely to be much greater than $50. If\nyou don’t like the buy side, you can also\npick up IMF’s manual on short selling\nfor $60. What’s attractive about Pitbull\nis it presents a straightforward approach\nto combining fundamentals and buying\nmomentum. Of course, the day will\ncome when momentum will no longer\nbe the easy way to trade, but when that\nday comes, this system simply won’t\ncome up with many stock picks. When\nthat happens, you’ll need to have the\nshort-selling system running."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-600-601-quick-scans-the-pitbull-investor-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-600-601-quick-scans-the-pitbull-investor-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-600-601-quick-scans-the-pitbull-investor-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q601-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (601-602): Quick Scans: Trading Without Fear by Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Without Fear, Eliminating Emotional Decisions with Arms Trading Strategies (Richard W. Arms Jr.) by Bruce Faber
Technician Richard Arms is of the mind\nthat although the price of a security may\ntell us what’s happening with that security,\nit’s the trading volume that tells us\nhow it’s happening. Arms has devoted\nmuch of his career to finding ways of\nincluding volume in the visual depiction\nof a security’s movement on the charts of\nthe technical analyst.
Arms’s first major contribution to technical\nanalysis was the now–widely used\nArms index, sometimes referred to as the\nshort-term trading index (TRIN). Whichever\nname it goes by, today it can usually\nbe found on the tickers that run across the\nbottom of financial television broadcasts\nor around the walls of the Wall Street\ncaverns."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-601-602-quick-scans-trading-without-fear-by-bruce-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-601-602-quick-scans-trading-without-fear-by-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-601-602-quick-scans-trading-without-fear-by-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q602-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:13 (602-603): Quick Scans: Dow Jones News/Retrieval by Staff Writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dow Jones News/Retrieval Private Investor Edition, Version 5.0 by Staff Writer
Finding out what’s going on when so\nmuch is going on can be a major job these days, even though the access tools\nhave proliferated as rapidly as the events\nthemselves. When the subject is as generic\nas news, separating the gold flakes\nfrom the dross is tougher than ever.
Dow Jones wants to be your news\nvendor and, to that end, has provided\nwhat the Web does not: editorial judgment.\nIts News/Retrieval service for\nprivate investors focuses on the news\nthat businessfolk need by creating germane\ntopics from sources that the editors\nsee as credible and relevant. It aims\nto arm the person whose exploration\nbegins after usual work hours with some\nof the tools that professionals use. You\ncan do this for up to 10 hours a month,\nplus surcharges. (See sidebar, “Charges.”)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-602-603-quick-scans-dow-jones-news-retrieval-by-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-602-603-quick-scans-dow-jones-news-retrieval-by-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-13-602-603-quick-scans-dow-jones-news-retrieval-by-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q582-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (582-583): Quick Scans: ASCTrend 1.05 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""ASCTrend 1.05 by John Sweeney
AbleSys’s ASCTrend gets very good\npress from its users, but it’s a tough\nproduct to evaluate. ASCTrend is a package\nof two trend indicators and two\ntrend-stop indicators — all of which are\ncompletely undisclosed.
The indicators are designed to run\nwith Omega Research’s TradeStation\nor SuperCharts platforms, and you load\nthem into your indicator library via the\nusual procedures (you don’t load them\nas Omega “systems”). Once they’re invoked,\nyou get something similar to\nFigure 1. Looking at this figure, you’ll\nnotice that a lot of the information is in\nthe colored bars, which are called\nPaintbars, and the dots, which are called\nTrend-Stops. Blue bars indicate a rising\ntrend and red bars a declining trend. The\nbars display the ASCTrendUP and\nASCTrendDN indicators. Above or below\nthe bars, you can see the estimated\nstop points, here loaded as two more\nindicators. The sensitivity of the indicators\ncan be adjusted by the user."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-582-583-quick-scans-asctrend-1-05-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-582-583-quick-scans-asctrend-1-05-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-582-583-quick-scans-asctrend-1-05-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c13-q583-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (583): Quick Scans: Sight System by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sight System (Robert L. Moody) by John Sweeney
Sight System generates a performance\nsummary report for a system whose\ntrades have been entered under the aegis\nof Omega Research’s TradeStation.\nYou tell the computer where you entered\nand exited; Sight System then\nsummarizes the results and, subsequently,\nallows TradeStation to optimize\nthe system’s profit targets and\nstops."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-583-quick-scans-sight-system-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-583-quick-scans-sight-system-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-583-quick-scans-sight-system-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr605-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (605-608): Product Review: MetaStock 6.0 for Windows 95 and NT by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MetaStock 6.0 for Windows 95 and NT (Equis International) by Thom Hartle
If you’re still using Windows\n3.1, it’s probably time to upgrade\nto the Windows 95 platform.\nWhy? Because Windows\n95 has features that\nmake life easier for the Windows 3.1\nuser. For example, Windows 95 is much\nmore stable; programs that are true 32-\nbit compatible will rarely bring down\nyour entire system if a particular application\nhas a memory problem. Another\nnice feature of Windows 95 is the ability\nto multitask in a much more efficient\nmanner. Of course, whenever you think\nabout upgrading your platform, you want\nto see products being released that will\ntake advantage of the new features.\nEQUIS International, with its release of\nMetaStock 6.0 for Windows 95 and NT,\nis out in front of the technical analysis\npack with a native 32-bit application\ndesigned specifically for the new platform,\ncarrying the official Microsoft\ncertification. This latest version is an\nexciting upgrade because of EQUIS’s two-pronged effort. First, of course,\nEQUIS is setting out to bring a more\nsophisticated application, and second,\nEQUIS has also made MetaStock 6.0\nMicrosoft-certified to be compatible\nwith Microsoft Office 97, so the interface\nshould be very familiar to users\nwho have been working with standard\nWindows programs.
BETTER APPS
So what might be a better application\nfor technical-based traders and investors?\nMore indicators? More formula\nfunctions? More sophisticated screening?\nHow about an expert indicator (Figure\n1)? This latest version of MetaStock\nhas 15 new indicators added to the list,\nwhich now has a total of 95 indicators.\nIn addition, there are 25 new formula\ntools. As for charting, MetaStock 6.0\ncan display up to 32,000 data points —\nnearly 125 accumulated years of data!
But EQUIS International, in releasing\nMetaStock 6.0, makes a statement by\ngoing beyond just giving technicians\nbetter tools with which to trade. EQUIS\nrecognizes that we have on our computers\nmore than just technical analysis\nsoftware, and further, that we use these\napplications everyday. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-605-608-product-review-metastock-6-0-for-windows-95-and-nt-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-605-608-product-review-metastock-6-0-for-windows-95-and-nt-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-605-608-product-review-metastock-6-0-for-windows-95-and-nt-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr610-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (610-613): Option Simulator/RT, version 2.0 by Jack Karczewski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Rules for decision logic-based seasonal trading by Jack Karczewski
Option Simulator/RT from\nBay Options is a complete\noptions analytics program.\nIt’s user-friendly, yet sophisticated,\nand very fast\nwhen used on a computer with the requisite\nmemory and speed. Within a short\ntime, you’ll appreciate the thought that\nwent into the development of this program.\nSome key features include the\nability to scan the stock options, index\noptions and futures options markets in\nreal-time for potential trades. You can\nsearch for unusually heavy volume, high\nimplied volatilities or other flags of\nspecial situations. In fact, there are 30\noption variables as well as 15 more variables based on the underlying asset\nfor screening. In addition, you can cus-tomize\nthe quote displays and keep an\neye on your entire option portfolio;\nmultiple issues can be presented on one\nscreen. Plus, there is a simulator to\nperform what-if scenarios. And Option\nSimulator’s evaluators and date func-tions\ncan be used with Microsoft Excel\nor Visual BASIC.
USAGE
I initially ran the program on a 486-75\nwith 16 MB of RAM using end-of-day\ndata, and the program ran well. Subsequently,\nwith the decline in computer\nmemory prices, I upgraded my computers,\nand with 32 MB of RAM the program\nflew on both the 486 and the\nPentium.
Before writing this review, I had a\nworking familiarity with Option Simulator\nversion 1. Now, with version 2.0,\nthe new interface and format in the real-\ntime version is a worthwhile up-grade.\nVersion\n2.0 takes full advantage\nof all the\nWindows 95\ngraphics and computing\npower, the\nend result being an\nintuitive program, one that novices and experienced options\ntraders will easily run."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-610-613-option-simulator-rt-version-2-0-by-jack-karczewski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-610-613-option-simulator-rt-version-2-0-by-jack-karczewski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-610-613-option-simulator-rt-version-2-0-by-jack-karczewski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr614-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (614-615): Futura Pro by Staff Writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Futura Pro (Level-13, Inc.) by Staff Writer
Futura Pro from Level-13 is\na rare bird indeed: It’s a\nnew package that makes explicit\nforecasts of price ac-tion.\nMost trading software computes\nthe current value of myriad indicators,\nbut making an actual forecast? You don’t find that too often. To add to the\nexotic nature of this black-box product,\nit uses mysterious algorithms said to be\nfounded in “three forecasting methods”\nfrom Level-13’s larger data analysis\nand visualization package named\nMajqanda (pronounced mu-jan-dah).\n(See sidebar, “Majqanda.”)
If you typically pass up black-box\nforecasts, then this product may not be\nyour cup of tea. But Futura’s attraction\nis that it’s duck simple to operate. You\nopen the program, import some ASCII or\nMetaStock data, press one button to\nhave Futura figure the optimal analytical\nwindow in the data, and press another to\nforecast. Shazam! You’ll be looking at\nsomething similar to Figure 1."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-614-615-futura-pro-by-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-614-615-futura-pro-by-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-614-615-futura-pro-by-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr616-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (616-619): CycleTrader, version 2.0 by Barbara Star, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""CycleTrader, version 2.0 (Bressert Group) by Barbara Star, Ph.D.
Most traders dream of\ncatching price tops and\nbottoms on a consistent\nbasis, and CycleTrader\nhelps traders do just that.\nThe brainchild of Walter Bressert, well\nknown for his work in the field of cycle\nanalysis, CycleTrader integrates the\nconcepts he developed and advocates in\nhis book, The Power of Oscillator/Cycle\nCombinations. CycleTrader combines spectral analysis with oscillators,\ntiming/trading bands and trade entry\nsignals to locate potential buy and\nsell turning points. The program\nworks in any time frame and can be\nused with stocks, commodities, indi-ces\nand mutual funds.
Rather than create a standalone\nprogram, Bressert joined the growing ranks of software developers who\ndevise value-added programs that run\nonly within certain financial charting\npackages. In this case, Omega Research’s\nTradeStation and SuperCharts provide\nthe engines that power CycleTrader. This\napproach holds some pluses, such as\nreducing the learning curve for current Omega software users and enabling the\nproduct developer to maintain control over\nproprietary formulas by storing them in\nlocked files. The downside, of course, is\nthat the program remains unavailable to\nnon–Omega software owners."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-616-619-cycletrader-version-2-0-by-barbara-star-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-616-619-cycletrader-version-2-0-by-barbara-star-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-616-619-cycletrader-version-2-0-by-barbara-star-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr620-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (620-622): Financial Toolbox by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Financial Toolbox (The Mathworks, Inc.) by John Sweeney
MATLAB, which is short\nfor matrix laboratory,\nis a huge assemblage of\ncomputational code\nthat’s found its lifeforce in the worlds of\nengineering and academia. The idea\nbehind mathematical packages such as\nMATLAB is to take the development of\nmathematics off a piece of paper and\nautomate the process in a computer.\nThe continually evolving result in\nMATLAB is a program with more than\n500 math and matrix manipulation functions,\na wide variety of analytical graphics,\nand a high-speed computational\nengine, all enveloped in an interpreted\nlanguage that humans can use to specify\nwhat they want. There’s a version of\nMATLAB for just about any computer\nplatform, and it can also use C and\nFortran subroutines written elsewhere.
MATLAB and Financial Toolbox are\naimed at those who’ve reached the limits\nof spreadsheet power, are mathematically\nastute and can handle programming\nat the macro or basic level.
Obviously, the typical trader, either\nretail or institutional, is not going to\nhave the time for (or be comfy with) this\nenvironment, let alone integrate it into\nhis daily trading stream. Most analytical\ndevelopment for trading uses spreadsheets,\nin-house software, dedicated\ntrading software or pencil and paper. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-620-622-financial-toolbox-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-620-622-financial-toolbox-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-620-622-financial-toolbox-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr623-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (623-624): OmniTrader,version 2.5 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""OmniTrader, version 2.5 (Nirvana Systems, Inc.) Automated charting, training and trading software. by John Sweeney
Few programs go all out to\nautomate every aspect of\ntrading for the individual\nspeculator. The analytical\napproach wherein you\nspecify every aspect of the treatment of\nthe data is the dominant paradigm for\nsoftware, perhaps because the founders\nwere, themselves, either analysts or programmers.
Ed Downs, the creator of OmniTrader,\nhas gone the other direction. Downs has\nan engineering background in design\nautomation, a field that seeks to automate\ncomputer chip design. Downs\nwanted to automate the trading process,\nand his company started out in 1991 by\ncreating utilities that automated various\naspects of other folks’ trading software\n(MetaStock, AIQ and Telescan). All this\nautomation stuff eventually led to the\ncreation of OmniTrader, the goal of\nwhich is to automatically produce buy\nand sell signals based on certain analysis\ntechniques, which you then confirm\nagainst the automatically generated visual aids (trendlines, candle patterns\nand so forth). Not that you can’t use\nOmniTrader to tweak."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-623-624-omnitrader-version-2-5-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-623-624-omnitrader-version-2-5-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-623-624-omnitrader-version-2-5-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr625-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (625-628): Value Line Fund Analyzer, version 1.1 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Value Line Fund Analyzer, version 1.1. Mutual fund selection and monitoring software withupdates from Value Line. by John Sweeney
Mutual fund selection,\nsorting, ranking and\nportfolio tracking is the\nfocus of the Value Line\nFund Analyzer. Updated\nmonthly, the Windows-based software\nprovides complete data on more\nthan 5,800 mutual funds (but not the\nValue Line funds) and examines all that\ninformation by user-selectable criteria.\nThe criteria you can use are truly voluminous\n(see sidebar, “Criteria”), and\nsome are unique from what I’ve seen of\npublic mutual fund analysis software.\nYou can get the information on diskette\nor CD-ROM, and both media are updated\nby a proprietary online service.\nData included goes back 10 years.
Behind the scenes are, Value Line\nsays, more than 100 analysts, statisticians\nand economists using objective\nanalytic methodologies, tracking both\nthe mutual funds and their related stocks.\nThis force, built up since 1931, not only\npublishes the famous Value Line Reports but runs mutual funds and does\nasset management for retirement and\nendowment accounts. This assemblage\nnow puts out the CD and online versions\nand, indeed, you can get a portable\ndocument format version of the Value\nLine Mutual Fund Survey printed pages\n(Value Line refers to them as “E-pages”)\nfor an extra $100 per year."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-625-628-value-line-fund-analyzer-version-1-1-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-625-628-value-line-fund-analyzer-version-1-1-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-625-628-value-line-fund-analyzer-version-1-1-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr629-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (629-630): Inside TA Pro, version 3.02 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Insider TA Pro, Version 3.02 (Stock Blocks, Inc.) Technical analysis and stock trading program emphasizing the use of volume. by John Sweeney
Insider TA is a program focused\non using volume information\nin charts to generate\ntrading signals. In the Pro 3.02\nversion, Stock Blocks has\nadded a stop-loss/trailing-stop signaling\nfeature, and a scanning function\nwith which you can screen your stock\nuniverse using Insider TA’s unique\ntools, the Volume Analyzer and Box\nAnalyzer. And now, Pro 3.02 can use\ndata directly from the MetaStock and\nTC 2000 formats.
VOLUME CHARTING
Recall briefly that in Equivolume† charting,\nthe vertical bar on your chart is still\nthe price — in this case, the high and\nlow. The horizontal x-axis, however, is\nmerely a sequence of days, days that get\nlonger on high-volume days and shorter\non low-volume days. The resulting chart\nis a series of rectangular shapes that\ncapture price in their height and volume\nin their width for each day — thus,\nboxes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-629-630-inside-ta-pro-version-3-02-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-629-630-inside-ta-pro-version-3-02-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-629-630-inside-ta-pro-version-3-02-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr631-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (631-632): ULTRA Market Advisor, version 4.13 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""ULTRA Market Advisor, Version 4.13 for Windows (ULTRA Financial Systems). Collection of timing systems for stocks, bonds and gold. by John Sweeney
If you’re a market timer (and\nwhat technician isn’t?), you\nmight appreciate a collection\nof timing tools gathered from\nheavy thinkers in the field. Expanding his\nreach, timing enthusiast Steve Hunter offers\nsuch a collection in the latest version\nof his market timing software package,\nThe ULTRA Market Advisor. Although\nit’s targeted at institutions, money managers\nand sophisticated (that is, well-financed)\ninvestors, it’s priced for the\nmasses. Hunter has assembled 40 of his\nfavorite trading systems, many of which\nwere originally published elsewhere,\nand programmed them based on\nbacktests against the DJIA, S&P 500,\nOTC, Value Line, NYSE, the Dow Jones\n20 bonds and the Gold Mining Index\n(GMI). You can tweak the trading parameters\nin some of the systems, but not\nall, and you can easily get respectable signals from those provided.
The ULTRA Market Advisor has expanded\nsince we last reviewed it in February\n1994. Now it includes the gold and\nbond markets as well as equities. Moreover,\nthe rules for calculating the indicators\nand buy/sell signals are disclosed,\nallowing you to check your results. Trading\nfrequency ranges from years to weeks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-631-632-ultra-market-advisor-version-4-13-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-631-632-ultra-market-advisor-version-4-13-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-631-632-ultra-market-advisor-version-4-13-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr633-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (633-637): AIQ TradingExpert, version 3.21 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""AIQ TradingExpert, Version 3.21 for Windows (AIQ Systems). Software to screen and time the trading of stocks and the overall market. by John Sweeney
AIQ TradingExpert for\nWindows combines rules\nfor the general market\nand rules for stocks into\none program for screening\nyour stock universe and timing trades\nin the indices or issues. It also provides\nfacilities for group and sector analysis\nas well as full data handling, graphics\ndisplay and indicator selection.
The trading model isn’t doing too\nbadly, either. A newsletter called The\nFund Alert edited by AIQ chief analyst\nDave Vomund held the 12th-ranked spot\nfor 1996 in Timer Digest and was rated\nfourth for the three-year period 1994\nthrough 1996. His relatively simple trading\nstrategies implemented since 1992\nhave showed annual compound growth\nrates in the 22% range through 1996.
Since we last reviewed AIQ in November 1995, the program has evolved\nsteadily to bring in the ability to technically\n(though not fundamentally; that\ncapability is an $88 add-on) screen and\nevaluate entire sectors and groups of\nstocks just as you would an individual\nstock. Because this ability includes the\napplication of breadth measures (such\nas advance/decline, TRIN, the high/low\nindicator and the summation index), it\nmakes possible the application of expert\nrules to these groups and sectors,\nalong the lines used for the market and\nindividual stocks. This new feature also\nallows you to create lists of stocks that\nmimic the performance of, say, a mutual\nfund or some other target portfolio.\nThe expert rules used for groups and\nsectors can also be applied to your own\nspecified groups of stocks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-633-637-aiq-tradingexpert-version-3-21-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-633-637-aiq-tradingexpert-version-3-21-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-633-637-aiq-tradingexpert-version-3-21-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr638-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (638): Option Master second edition by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Master, Second edition (Institute for Options Research, Inc.) Options pricing software. by John Sweeney
Option Master, which was\ndeveloped by Ken Trester\nand Robert Swanson, is pure\npricing software. On the\npremise that options players\ncan make or break themselves by\nwhether they buy cheap and sell dear,\nOption Master provides a convenient\nway to evaluate all the options for a\nwhole series of stocks within a few\nminutes. That it can run on just about\nany platform makes it versatile as well\n— you can even carry it around with\nyou on an Apple Newton personal digital assistant.
The program installs easily\nand runs very quickly.\nAnd it should: Once you\nsupply the inputs, only a\nsingle computation is performed\nand no graphics are\npresented."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-638-option-master-second-edition-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-638-option-master-second-edition-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-638-option-master-second-edition-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr639-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (639-641): Structure Version 2.0 by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Structure, Version 2.0 (Nava Development Corp.). Charting software, data downloader and data translator. by Thom Hartle
Structure, NAVA Development\nCorp.’s most recent\nproduct, aims to provide a\nmore visual tool for traders.\nStructure is a step in a direction\ndifferent from NAVA’s other primary\nprogram, Patterns, which is a quantitative\nprogram. Patterns will review\nyour data, test for specific price patterns,\nand detail the past as well as\nproject future price actions. Structure,\non the other hand, is not a tool with a\nquantitative emphasis.
NAVA has designed into Structure\nsome innovative charting styles as well\nas a unique interface for the trader (Figure\n1). Here, you can find extensive use\nof drag-and-drop and other object-oriented\nfeatures. The goal is to give you a\nblank slate, one that can be customized just the way you want it; you’re not\nlocked into a format dictated by the\nrequirements of, say, Microsoft. Innovation\nis certainly a good thing, and\nshould be encouraged. The downside to\ninnovation is that one can be accustomed\nto a certain way of doing things,\nand an innovative approach, while new\nand intriguing, will not necessarily be\nintuitive. But enough discussion. Let’s\nget to the attributes of Structure."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-639-641-structure-version-2-0-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-639-641-structure-version-2-0-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-639-641-structure-version-2-0-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr646-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (646): Formula Research by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Formula Research (Formula Research, Inc.). Newsletter that details quantitative approaches to the financial markets. by Thom Hartle
As a reader of STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES magazine,\nyou are, by my estimate, a\nfar more serious individual\nthan 95% of the trading population.\nYou are looking to hone your trading\nand investment skills using whatever\nmethods and resources available. One\nleading resource for you to peruse is the\nFORMULA RESEARCH newsletter, edited\nand published by Nelson Freeburg.
Why should I consider Freeburg’s\nwork a leading resource? Because I\nagree with his core philosophy as a\nviable approach to trading markets. His\nphilosophy is to develop and present\ntrading systems that are documented by\nrigorous testing via statistical methods.\nTrading systems that depend on anecdotal\nevidence or hindsight for feasibility\nwill never appear in Freeburg’s work."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-646-formula-research-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-646-formula-research-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-646-formula-research-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr642-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (646: Product Review: A-T Attitude by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A-T Attitude, for the Internet Version 6.39C+ (A-T Financial Information, Inc.). Internet-based real-time trading support system. by John Sweeney
Imagine a real-time trading\nsupport system offering\nreal-time data on an unlimited\nnumber of instruments,\nthe ability to load more than\n500 securities on a single screen, and no\nlimit on the number of monitors you can\nhave to display it all. Add to that tickers\nas well as historical and fundamental\ndata with simple charts. Further, imagine\nsuch sophistications as creating portfolio\nbaskets in real time or adding\ncolorized tickers and trend indicators\nwith limit alerts. Imagine being able to\nfilter the datafeed by exchange or trade\nsize. Consider that you could add scrolling\nreal-time news for a little extra a\nmonth, news that can be filtered or\nsearched. Envision autodumping to Excel via dynamic data exchange.
That just about describes Minor Attitude,\nan Internet-based trading support\npackage from A-T Financial. Or step up\nto Major Attitude, which also gives you\na database of 10 years of daily history;\ndaily, weekly, and monthly charts; dynamic\ntick and variable tick charts; options\nanalytics; and a basic stable of\ntechnical studies with user-defined\nstudy parameters."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-646-product-review-a-t-attitude-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-646-product-review-a-t-attitude-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-646-product-review-a-t-attitude-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr647-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (647-649): Product Review: Time To Trade 2 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Time To Trade 2 (North Systems, Inc.). Software to identify turning points using oscillator-based trading system signals. by John Sweeney
Would you like to be able\nto spot a change in trend?\nDon’t you think it would\nhelp to check 10 of the\nbest indicators and six of\nthe best trend-related oscillators to see\nif they agree on whether a security is up\nat the moment? That’s the premise behind\nNorth Systems’ effort to generate\nhighly reliable trading signals by building\na consensus indicator called NSINC\n(“in sync”), which is at the heart of\nTime To Trade 2. As you can see from\nFigure 1, NSINC is actually quite effective\nat picking turning points.
Sometimes the best way to judge a\nspecific technique such as the NSINC\nindicator is to determine when it goes\nwrong. After all, you’ll experience no\nproblems when things go the way you\nplan; it’s when they don’t that confusion\nand fear arise.
That said, let’s take a look at how the\nindicator performs and how to use it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-647-649-product-review-time-to-trade-2-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-647-649-product-review-time-to-trade-2-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-647-649-product-review-time-to-trade-2-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr650-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (650-653): SuperCharts Real Time, version 4 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SuperCharts Real Time, Version 4 (Omega Research, Inc.). Real-time charting, analysis, and custom alert automation software. by John Sweeney
With SuperCharts 4.0 Real\nTime, you’ll benefit\nfrom the same phenomenon\nthat is a yearly\nevent in computing\nhardware: getting more and more capability\nfor less and less money. As the\nname implies, the big new feature is the\nability to track the markets in real time,\nintraday — a natural step for most end-of-\nday users of SuperCharts. In addition,\nthe latest version has been updated\nwith the addition of automatic trendlines,\ncandlestick pattern identification, an\nindicator-writing capability, a system-writing\ncapability, volume-based charting,\na revised help system and an Internet\nsite for data refresh, among other offerings.\nAlready an advanced charting program,\nSuperCharts Real Time now allows\nthe trader to create and be alerted\non custom alerts.
What’s more, you can upgrade to\nOmega Research’s TradeStation program\nlater if you find you need the\nextensive system developing and testing\nfeatures of that program.
SETUP
Many new users of SuperCharts Real\nTime will be stepping up from end-of-day\nto intraday trading and may be\nupgrading from other end-of-day programs.\nThus, many will already be familiar\nwith data downloading, data vendors,\nWeb sites, computers, modems\nand charting programs in general."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-650-653-supercharts-real-time-version-4-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-650-653-supercharts-real-time-version-4-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-650-653-supercharts-real-time-version-4-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr654-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (654-657): NeuroGenetic Optimizer, version 2.5 by Howard Bandy, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""NeuroGenetic Optimizer, Version 2.5 (Biocomp Systems, Inc.). Neural network development system. by Howard Bandy, Ph.D.
Could you use some additional\nbrainpower to attack\ndifficult modeling and prediction\nproblems? Neuro-Genetic\nOptimizer (NGO),\nneural network development system\nfrom BioComp Systems, offers several\nunique neural network architectures,\nincluding some designed to help with\ntime series analysis and prediction.
A neural network is an artificial intelligence\nprogram capable of learning\nthe relationships present among the data\nthrough a training process. A genetic\nalgorithm mimics the processes associated\nwith evolution. In NGO, genetic\nalgorithms help find efficient and effective\nneural networks.
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
In any modeling and simulation process,\nthe goal is to construct a mathematical\nmodel of a real relationship with the hope of better understanding\nthe relationship. We want to\nexplain a result in terms of the\nfactors that affect it, perhaps to\npredict future behavior. Models are\noften divided into two broad types: classification\nand estimation (or function\napproximation). They are further divided\naccording to whether the time\nsequence of the data is important."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-654-657-neurogenetic-optimizer-version-2-5-by-howard-bandy-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-654-657-neurogenetic-optimizer-version-2-5-by-howard-bandy-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-654-657-neurogenetic-optimizer-version-2-5-by-howard-bandy-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr658-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (658): Product Review: Risk Of Ruin by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Risk of Ruin (Financial Trading Inc.). Simulation software to estimate risk of ruin. by John Sweeney
Of the techniques available\nto help traders with money\nmanagement, risk of ruin\nis one of the oldest. It’s\nmeant to determine your chances of tapping out after a series of\ntrades, assuming you’ll limit your losses\non any one trade to a specific amount.\nLuis Sanchez of Caracas, Venezuela,\nin cooperation with Financial Trading\nInc., offers a handy utility to test your\nsystem’s behavior. The program,\nstraightforwardly called Risk of Ruin,\ntests your system on randomly generated\ndata to determine the probability of\nyour capital drying up.\nYou open Risk of Ruin through\nMicrosoft Excel spreadsheet software,\neither from the floppy on which it comes\nor from your hard disk to which you’ve\ncopied it. Then you insert four numbers: ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-658-product-review-risk-of-ruin-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-658-product-review-risk-of-ruin-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-658-product-review-risk-of-ruin-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr663-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (663-666): Product Review: The Galactic Trader by Raymond A. Merriman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Galactic Trader (PAS Inc.). Market timing analysis via financial astrology and selective Gann methods. by Raymond A. Merriman
Using astrological signatures\nas a market timing\ntool for identifying potential\nmajor reversals in financial\nand commodity markets is a phenomenon that has grown\nrapidly in the past 15 years. Much to the\nchagrin of many analysts and advisors\nwho employ only conventional methods\nof fundamental and technical analysis\n— and steadfastly refuse to consider\nthe possibility of astrology as a market\ntiming indicator on the belief that “it\nshouldn’t work and therefore it doesn’t\nwork” — there is a growing number of\ntraders, investors, brokers and fund\nmanagers who find uncanny correlations\nbetween certain planetary and lunar\ncycles to significant crests and\ntroughs in market prices.
THE STUDY OF ASTROLOGY
The study of astrology has been around\nfor thousands of years. Its correlation to\nmarket prices has been referred to in the\nworks of George Bayer, Gustave Lambert-\nBrahy, Donald Bradley, David Williams and W.D. Gann, as well as\nothers, during the first half of this century.\nHowever, it wasn’t until 1977 that\nany formal quantitative studies on the\nsubject were initiated, and soon thereafter\nthe interest in the field began to\ngrow."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-663-666-product-review-the-galactic-trader-by-raymond-a-merriman-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-663-666-product-review-the-galactic-trader-by-raymond-a-merriman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-663-666-product-review-the-galactic-trader-by-raymond-a-merriman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr667-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (667-668): Product Review: PC Financial Network's Maximizer for Windows, Version 2 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PC Financial Network's Maximizer for Windows, Version 2 (Ret-Tech Software, Inc.). Software to download stock prices, news. by John Sweeney
One of the best-kept secrets\nin the financial world of\nretail online services is that\nonline service provider\nProdigy has plenty of useful financial information. It’s not always\neasy to find it, and moreover, now\nthat Prodigy is advertising its ability to access the Internet instead of emphasizing\nits access to proprietary information,\nit’s even harder to find out about it.\n(Even Prodigy’s public relations office\nwouldn’t reveal to me their plans for\npublishing financial content.) But recently,\nI looked over a product called\nPC Financial Network’s Maximizer for\nWindows that will automatically sign\non to Prodigy, download the financial\ninformation you want and sign off —\nqui ckly, si mply and i nexpensively."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-667-668-product-review-pc-financial-network-s-maximizer-for-windows-version-2-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-667-668-product-review-pc-financial-network-s-maximizer-for-windows-version-2-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-667-668-product-review-pc-financial-network-s-maximizer-for-windows-version-2-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr669-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (669-670): Systems & Indicators, version 1.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dennis Meyers Systems & Indicators, Version 1.0 (Meyers Analytics, LLC). A collection of indicators and trading systems for trading the S&P 500 index and bond funds. by John Sweeney
Sometimes, you actually\nget more than you pay for.\nWith Systems & Indicators,\nyou get fully disclosed,\nprofitable trading systems (on a historical basis) with 15-\nto 44-year histories for a cost of about\n$12 a piece. When you consider that\nblack-box (undisclosed) trading systems\ngo for $3,000 to $5,000 per copy these\ndays, it’s almost unthinkable that you’d\nget this much for such a small cost, but\nthat’s what Meyers Analytics offers.
Systems & Indicators incarnates Dennis\nMeyers’ articles that have been published\nover the years in STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nin which Meyers presents\nfully backtested systems and indicators.\nVersion 1.0 contains 12 of these\nlittle jewels. All of the systems and\nindicators in the package have been\nupdated, changed or improved since\noriginal publication. Naturally, we requested\nthe full package with the data\nseries that goes with them. You can\norder upgrades for existing and new systems for $35 a pop.
Meyers, a Contributing Editor for\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES, holds a\ndoctorate in applied mathematics from\nthe engineering department of UCLA.\nHe taught there for a year, during which\ntime he formulated and developed derivative\nsecurities models. Later, in New\nYork, he put those models to work advising\ninstitutions on derivative and risk-adverse\ntrading strategies, and after that,\nin Chicago, where his options firm used\nthe evolving computerized models for\nmarket-making. Today, he’s a member\nof the Chicago Board Options Exchange\n(CBOE), a private trader and president\nof Meyers Analytics. STOCKS & COMMODITIES\nreaders have already benefited\nfrom the work and wisdom that Meyers\nhas imparted in the magazine, where\nhe’s been steadily developing a series\nof systems and indicators using modern\nlinear and nonlinear analytics and optimization\ntechniques."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-669-670-systems-indicators-version-1-0-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-669-670-systems-indicators-version-1-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-669-670-systems-indicators-version-1-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr671-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (671-673): Product Review: Minitab Statistical Systems by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Minitab Statistical Software, Release 11 (Minitab, Inc.). Statistical analysis software. by John Sweeney
Uncertainty numbs the\nmind, whereas statistics\nhave a way of numbing\nthe mind to uncertainty.\nThis uncertainty reduces\nus to an irrational state of anxiety,\nwherein we imagine that the tools we\nemploy will somehow exert control over\nthe uncontrollable. Traders constantly\nsearch for the secret rules that will tell\nthem what will happen tomorrow, and\nthey continue to search until they burn\nout or begin to grasp the concept of\nprobability. As the grasp becomes firmer\non that concept, the notion of chances\nand odds becomes real, and at that point,\na trader might turn to statistical software to create a picture of the behavior\nof the beast with which he dances.
Of several university packages for\nstatistical analysis, Minitab is among\nthe most popular. Designed originally\nfor statistical instruction, bulked the contributions over the years from\nthousands of users and commercialized\nnow for 13 years, Minitab is supported\nby more than 500 statistics\ntexts and is ubiquitous in academia\nand commerce."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-671-673-product-review-minitab-statistical-systems-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-671-673-product-review-minitab-statistical-systems-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-671-673-product-review-minitab-statistical-systems-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr674-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (674-676): VectorVest ProGraphics, version 4.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""VectorVest ProGraphics, Version 4.0 (Marketsoft Inc.). Stock selection software. by John Sweeney
How’d you like to effectively\nscreen stock picks from a\nlist of 6,000 equities instead\nof just buying a mutual fund,\nor have a program that gives\nyou the buys and sells? That includes\ndata service? And includes a strong\nmarket timing capability? VectorVest\ngets you into that mode.
VectorVest (the name refers to “vectors”\nof stock selection parameters such\nas value, safety and timing) is designed\nto be used by nontechnicians and novices\nto intermediate stockpickers. Even\nso, many of its users are power pickers:\nmoney managers, experienced private\ninvestors and financial advisors. Why is\nthat? VectorVest comes with a database,\na straightforward rationale for its\npicks, a mostly proprietary stock screening\ncapability, a facility for showing\nindustry group comparisons and, according\nto the company, a highly accurate\nmarket timing system. Even better,\nit’s genuinely easy to use. Not bad for\n$50 a month."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-674-676-vectorvest-prographics-version-4-0-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-674-676-vectorvest-prographics-version-4-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-674-676-vectorvest-prographics-version-4-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr677-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (677-680): Product Review: Unfair Advantage, version 1.54 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Futures data by subdscription: Unfair Advantage, Version 1.54 (CSI). Worldwide futures data updated by Internet or phone link. by John Sweeney
Diversifying your futures\nportfolio is tougher to do\nthan it is for equities, where\nthousands of choices\nabound. Still, the playing\nfield is expanding, with all the new\nfutures contracts and developing exchanges\nworldwide. The problem is finding\nout what’s going on out there and\ndoing so economically. One solution is\nCSI’s Unfair Advantage, which practically\nlets you download the world (plus\nits history).
With Unfair Advantage, you can\ndownload end-of-day data via the\nInternet (provided you have access\nthrough an Internet service provider) or\nmodem. It takes three or four minutes or\nso on a T1 line, thanks to proprietary\ntechnology that achieves compression\nratios of up to 20 to 1 for the master\ndatabase held locally, compared with\nthe more typical 2 to 1 squeeze jobs.\nBuilding files takes anywhere from a\nminute to five minutes, depending on\nhow many items you’re actively tracking.\nYou get all the data from yesterday\n(retransmitted for refresh), corrections for exchange errors and revisions plus\nany data errors, plus all of today’s data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-677-680-product-review-unfair-advantage-version-1-54-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-677-680-product-review-unfair-advantage-version-1-54-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-677-680-product-review-unfair-advantage-version-1-54-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr681-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (681-682): Product Review: OpCalc Professional 3.50 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""OpCalc Professional 3.50 (Austinsoft, Inc.). Value-priced software for equity and futures options analysis and trading recommendations. by John Sweeney
OpCalc Professional 3.5 is\na quick position calculator\nthat uses data from a\nSignal data server, or imports\n— but does not download — its data from an Internet\ndownload or spreadsheet export file.\nOnce it gets its data and your outlook, it\ncan generate recommended trades for\nstocks, futures or indices rated by return\non investment (ROI) and restricted by\nrisk assessment. Trades that are selected\ncan be put into a position-monitoring\nmodule that shows both the total position\nand all the legs.
Getting from here to there, though,\ncan be something of a challenge. Though\n3.5 sports a spiffy interface and a seamless\nhookup to a running Signal for\nWindows server, it is not capable of\nsolving some problems that come with\nSignal’s options quote system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-681-682-product-review-opcalc-professional-3-50-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-681-682-product-review-opcalc-professional-3-50-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-681-682-product-review-opcalc-professional-3-50-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr683-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (683-688): Product Review: Robert Krausz's Fibonacci Trader, version 1.93 by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Robert Krausz's Fibonacci Trader, Version 1.98 (Fibonacci Trader Corporation). Market timing analysis using multiple time frame techniques. by Thom Hartle
How would you like to use\ntrading software that a\nprofessional trader uses,\nwithout burdening yourself\nwith a second mortgage? To use the same proprietary techniques\nthat one trader has cultivated over\nthe years without having to give up your\nfavorite indicators and use them in a way\nthat you may have thought about but\ncouldn’t because of the limitations of\nyour current software?
I have a very interesting program to tell\nyou about.
Fibonacci Trader is a trading package\ndesigned by 20-year professional trader,\nwriter and teacher Robert Krausz. Robert\nKrausz should be no stranger to STOCKS\n& COMMODITIES readers, as he was interviewed\nin the September 1995 issue, and he introduced his core concept of\nanalysis with “Dynamic multiple time\nframes” in the November 1996 issue.\nIn addition, Krausz was featured in\nJack Schwager’s New Market Wizards, and he has spoken at seminars\nthroughout the world. The program I just\nmentioned, called Fibonacci Trader, gives\nyou access to some of his own indicators,\nboth proprietary and nonproprietary, that\nhe personally uses (Figure 1).
CHECKLIST
Fibonacci Trader has most features\navailable in other applications, as well\nas special elements that set Fibonacci\nTrader apart. There are 34 technical indicators, indicators that are common\nto most programs, as well as 18 unique\nindicators, the majority designed by\nKrausz or are only available in Fibonacci\nTrader (see sidebar, “Indicators”). We’ll\nbe discussing a few of Krausz’s technical\nindicators in a moment."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-683-688-product-review-robert-krausz-s-fibonacci-trader-version-1-93-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-683-688-product-review-robert-krausz-s-fibonacci-trader-version-1-93-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-683-688-product-review-robert-krausz-s-fibonacci-trader-version-1-93-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr689-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (689-690): Product Review: Investor's Reference Library, version 5.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Investor's Reference Library, Version 5.0 (Industry Monitors). Stock industry group tracing and prescreening data and software. by John Sweeney
Many’s the soul who figured\nthat a larger view\nwould help their investing\nor trading; the\nresult is a desire to seewhat a sector or industry group is doing\nbefore delving into the individual stocks\navailable in that group. Investor’s Reference\nLibrary (IRL) from Industry\nMonitors promises to make this task\neasier by supplying data on 200 industry\ngroups composed of 8,000 stocks.\nPlus, IRL lets you aggregate stocks and\ncreate indices of your aggregations,\nreplete with volume information. To\nhelp with your aggregating, IRL also\nincludes a basic screening capability to\nwinnow down the numbers to something\nyou’ll be able to manage.
\nConveniences include a basic charting\ncapability with a quick-click slide\nshow within an industry; a data export\nfacility (handy for setting up lists for\nother software); quick start of other\napplications (MetaStock, Excel, and\nSignal are included); and newsletters from Ian Woodward and Rex Takasugi."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-689-690-product-review-investor-s-reference-library-version-5-0-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-689-690-product-review-investor-s-reference-library-version-5-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-689-690-product-review-investor-s-reference-library-version-5-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr691-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (691-692): Product Review: Resampling Stats for PC or Macintosh by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Resampling Stats for PC or Macintosh, (Resampling Stats, Inc.). Software to estimate distributions of sample statistics. by John Sweeney
First of all, what is “resampling”?\nIn the case of\nResampling Stats software,\nit means using data or a\ndata-generating mechanism\nto randomly generate additional\nsamples. This is an important concept to\ntraders, because testing on existing data\nis sometimes limited to too few samples\nto generate a reliable result. Moreover,\nwith data resampling, the prices (and\nreturns) that are studied can be considered\nsamples from a greater universe of\npossible outcomes. If it were possible to\nhave a better picture of that universe\nfrom the data we do have, it would\ncertainly be advantageous.
Resampling Stats tries to get a better\npicture of that universe by repetitively\nsampling the data you have and building\na picture of the resulting distribution\nof a sample statistic of interest.
Here’s an example from the manual:\nSuppose you have a sample of 12 pigs’ weight gain. Graphically, they look like\nFigure 1. What Resampling Stats does is\ntake 1,000 12-pig samples by randomly\nselecting from the 12 numbers available.\n(Technically, this is known as “with replacement.”)\nThen it assembles the 1,000\nresamples of average weight gains into\nsomething that look like Figure 2. From\nthere, it shouldn’t take traders long to\nconsider resampling trading results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-691-692-product-review-resampling-stats-for-pc-or-macintosh-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-691-692-product-review-resampling-stats-for-pc-or-macintosh-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-691-692-product-review-resampling-stats-for-pc-or-macintosh-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr696-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 (696-699): Product Review: Performance Summary Plus/Portfolio Evaluator by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Performace Summary Plus/Portfolio Evaluator, Verson 2.1, Revision 86 (RINA Systems, Inc.). Software for analyzing trading system or market performance and for highlighting areas for improvement. Requires TradeStation or SuperCharts. by John Sweeney
Reading a trading system\nperformance summary can\nbe dry work. As more and\nmore systems produce\nmore and more elaborate\nsummaries, the work becomes truly stultifying.\nSometimes you must drive\nthrough ranks of measures and statistics\nthat have been computed at the request\nof someone, sometime, somewhere, but\nthe summary results can lack an overall\ntheme or paradigm for easy performance\nanalysis. Getting your results into a format\nthat really helps you modify your\nsystem or practices can be a challenge.
Portfolio Evaluator from RINA Systems\n(RINA stands for Research Investments\nAnalytics) doesn’t beat all these\nissues, but as a comprehensive performance analysis package, it certainly\nhelps the user to start identifying what\ncounts and what to use. The package\nactually contains two levels of software,\nmoving from basic to advanced:\nPerformance Summary Plus Professional\nand Portfolio Evaluator, and you\nchoose which level of software you\nwant to register for and purchase. I took\na look at the highest-level software,\nPortfolio Evaluator. Performance Summary\nPlus Professional allows you to\nevaluate your trading system on one\nmarket, while Portfolio Evaluator gives\nyou the ability to test your trading system\non many markets combined, as well\nas individual markets. Portfolio Evaluator\nalso allows you to combine several\ntrading systems to analyze their joint\nperformance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-696-699-product-review-performance-summary-plus-portfolio-evaluator-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-696-699-product-review-performance-summary-plus-portfolio-evaluator-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-696-699-product-review-performance-summary-plus-portfolio-evaluator-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr693-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:14 SirTrade 97, version 1.10c by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SirTrade 97, version 1.10c by John Sweeney
New ideas surround the US\ntrader facing SirTrade 97.\nThere’s the intrigue of\n“neurofuzzy.” The software\ncomes in two parts (“SAFIR-X\nThe Assistant,” for Smart Adaptive\nFuzzy Inference Resource, from Jewel-Soft)\nand SirTrade 97 (a TradeStation\nrun-time for neurofuzzy systems); the\nmanual’s English is occasionally uncertain\nand often literally in color; and the\nunderstated promise of real-time training\nsounds seductive. And where are the trading\nsignals? Nevertheless, some sweat\nand strain bears results, and SAFIR-X/SirTrade comes up with some very good\nresults.
To check this out, I loaded SAFIR-X\nand tested it on some off-line data from\nTradeStation. Although system development\nactually takes place outside of\nTradeStation, you first create an indicator\nor set of indicators in TradeStation.\nThese print out their results to an ASCII\nfile, so you don’t have to be in TradeStation to do your testing. Just as well.\nIf you really go wild with the number of\nfuzzy sets, the program can bring your\nmachine to its knees in the middle of\nyour trading session. (A set is a sub-group\nof data with more or less of a\nspecific characteristic, such as a relation\nto tomorrow’s close or an indicator’s\nvalue.) Better, developer Pierre Orphelin\nsays, is to run the testing on a separate\nmachine."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-sirtrade-97-version-1-10c-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-sirtrade-97-version-1-10c-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-14-sirtrade-97-version-1-10c-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c03-anewuti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:2 (101-111): A New Utility Average Stock Market System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""A New Utility Average Stock Market System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
This month, Meyers uses a daily indicator based on the Dow Jones Utility Average as a market timing system for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
In the August 1995 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I presented a stock market timing system that I called the utility stock market indicator. This system uses the weekly relative strength of the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) to the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to derive a stock market system. The weekly model had a number of weaknesses that we will attempt to resolve. Before we start, remember: No model, no matter how simple or sophisticated, can be relied on to guarantee future profits. Positive performance based on hypothetical trading can in no way give any assurances that the system will produce profits. I must issue this warning because many readers simply take these systems without any study on their own and invest their assets blindly. There is nothing more dangerous."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-101-111-a-new-utility-average-stock-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-101-111-a-new-utility-average-stock-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-101-111-a-new-utility-average-stock-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c02-the10swi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:2 (55-61): The 10% Swing Filter by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The 10% Swing Filter by Mark Vakkur, M.D.
Price filters identify trends while eliminating noise below a certain percentage change. Here's a trading method using a 10% price filter for the S&P 500 stock index.
Although trend-following systems work well during established trends, they can produce disastrous results at market turning points. For example, momentum investors obeying the dictum “Buy high and sell higher” could get crushed if they were fully leveraged at a major market top. Further, oscillators should theoretically help signal a change in trend, but often do so prematurely. A stochastic signals an overbought condition very early in a major rally. To participate in the bulk of major market swings while knowing when to tighten stops and reduce position size, a trader must have some means of estimating the odds of the market changing its trend. Here’s a simple method of putting history on your side by applying a 10% filter to the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-55-61-the-10-swing-filter-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-55-61-the-10-swing-filter-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-55-61-the-10-swing-filter-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c02-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:2 (62-67): Trading Soybean Spreads by Scott W. Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Soybean Spreads by Scott W. Barrie
Here are the basics of trading a soybean commodity spread using a seasonal strategy.
The price relationship between two or more given commodity contracts is known as a spread. Spread trading is the purchase of one commodity contract and\nthe simultaneous sale of another, related, futures contract. The price difference can change, and if it trends in the correct direction, the change in the relationship of the prices will be profitable. There are two basic types of spreads: intercommodity and intracommodity spreads.
An intercommodity spread is the purchase of a given commodity and the simultaneous sale of another related but different commodity. Examples of common intercommodity spreads are: the Treasury notes–Treasury bond spread, called the NOB spread; the corn–wheat spread; the T-bill–Eurodollar spread, called the TED spread, and the live cattle–feeder cattle spread. Trading intercommodity spreads involves speculation on the relationship between related but different markets."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-62-67-trading-soybean-spreads-by-scott-w-barrie-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-62-67-trading-soybean-spreads-by-scott-w-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-62-67-trading-soybean-spreads-by-scott-w-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c02-thestoc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:2 (68-72): The Stock Market and Seasonality by Bob Kargenian, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Stock Market and Seasonality by Bob Kargenian, C.M.T.
Is there a message that can be gleaned from the performance of the stock market during the 1996 election year? There may be. In 1990, this writer discussed the seasonal movement of the stock market. Here, he updates that work with further research, looking at market activity during the election year.
Is there a message that can be conveyed from the stock market’s performance during the 1996 election\nyear? There may be — if you believe in the seasonal and cyclical nature of the market. While not implying that past performance indicates future results, the seasonal aspect of the stock market has been popularized and researched by the likes of Ned Davis, Norm Fosback, Yale Hirsch, Arthur Merrill and Marty Zweig. Research has focused on the performance by month, the performance prior to major holidays, the end\nof the month effect, the Presidential election cycle and the January effect, among other things.
In combination with seasonal influences, for example, the decennial cycle has added some interesting implications. The decennial cycle simply represents the performance of the stock market in each year ending with the same digit (examples include 1905, 1915, 1925 and 1935). The concept was first written about by Edgar Lawrence Smith in Common Stocks and Business Cycles. Until the advent of mutual fund switching in the mid-1970s and stock index futures in 1982, there was no practical or cost-efficient way to take advantage of these patterns or tendencies. That, of\ncourse, has changed."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-68-72-the-stock-market-and-seasonality-by-bob-kargenian-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-68-72-the-stock-market-and-seasonality-by-bob-kargenian-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-68-72-the-stock-market-and-seasonality-by-bob-kargenian-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c02-genetic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:2 (73-82): Genetic Algorithms and Rule-Based Systems by J.O. Katz"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Genetic Algorithms and Rule-Based Systems by J.O. Katz
This trader and consultant uses a genetic algorithm to discover the best rules and parameters for a trading system.
Previously, I demonstrated that simple two-rule systems could be profitable. I used a genetic algorithm (GA) to discover the best parameters for the rules. Each rule had three parameters: two lookback periods and a threshold value.
Other than the parameters, the rules remained constant. The GA was used only to determine optimal values for the lookbacks and the thresholds. What would happen if I allowed a GA to search, not only for the best parameters, but also for the best rules? The rules set forth in my January 1997 article, “Developing systems with a rule-based approach,” involved simple price comparisons. Perhaps I could achieve better trading results if I had, for example, one rule to make a price comparison, another rule to determine whether the moon is full and a third rule to check whether the small speculators index is greater than 90."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-73-82-genetic-algorithms-and-rule-based-systems-by-j-o-katz-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-73-82-genetic-algorithms-and-rule-based-systems-by-j-o-katz-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-73-82-genetic-algorithms-and-rule-based-systems-by-j-o-katz-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c02-ralphac-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:2 (83-90): Ralph Acampora of Prudential Securities by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Ralph Acampora of Prudential Securities by Thom Hartle
In the decades that technical analysis has been rising in prominence, few have been as outspoken as Ralph J. Acampora, CMT, first vice president with Prudential Securities. Acampora has his roots firmly in the discipline. He's been a technician for three decades, he's a regular panelist and technician on the popular television show Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser and not only that, he's a cofounder of the Market Technicians Association. In 1996, he won a place on the second team in the Institutional Investor All-America Research Team in the category of technical analysis. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Acampora on November 19, 1996, via a telephone interview, covering a number of topics including the value of using basic research and making use of historical comparisons in the stock market.
Q: Ralph, you were one of the original founders of the\nMarket Technicians Association. How did that organization come into being?
A: When I came to Wall Street 30 years ago, technical analysis was being used by many of the big brokerage houses, but it didn’t really have much credibility. Second, no one, but no one, was talking to each other on a formal basis about technical analysis.
Q: What happened?
A: Then around 1969, I met Johnny Brooks. I must have been 27, he must have been 25, and we talked about how great it would be if technicians got together on a regular basis to talk about technical analysis. So along with John Greeley, we formed the Market Technicians Association, which is known today as the MTA."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-83-90-ralph-acampora-of-prudential-securities-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-83-90-ralph-acampora-of-prudential-securities-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-83-90-ralph-acampora-of-prudential-securities-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c02-thefund-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:2 (91-95): The Fundamentals of Sector Rotation by Paul and Carole Huebott"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Fundamentals of Sector Rotation by Paul and Carole Huebott
Maintaining an optimized portfolio of strong blue-chip stocks is one way to invest. Here are the basics of how stock groups move through a typical business cycle.
Our new Dow strategy, described in the August 1996 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, is a formula system operating on the sector rotation principle. But sector rotation can also be practiced on fundamentals. Here’s how.
Each issue of Barron’s provides market performance data on 96 industries in nine industrial groups. These groups are sometimes called sectors, and we use the two terms interchangeably.\nOne of Barron’s nine groups contains only the\nconglomerates — companies involved in many industries and probably more than one industrial group. For our purposes, however, let’s forget about the conglomerates. Some of them may be great investments from time to time, but they don’t lend themselves to the sector rotation strategy of investment."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-91-95-the-fundamentals-of-sector-rotation-by-paul-and-carole-huebott-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-91-95-the-fundamentals-of-sector-rotation-by-paul-and-carole-huebott-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-2-91-95-the-fundamentals-of-sector-rotation-by-paul-and-carole-huebott-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c03-protec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:3 (112-115): Protecting Yourself in Tough Markets by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Protecting Yourself in Tough Markets by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Things may be going great for you now, but what happens when the tide turns and you face hard times in the market? Here's how to protect yourself.
Recently, I encountered a man who was close to suicidal. Three weeks prior, his Keogh account had been worth about $1.3 million. Unfortunately, as a result of the mini-technology crash in NASDAQ, the value of his account had plummetted, ending up only worth about $400,000 by the time we met. Then, he had watched one stock drop from $200 per share to about $50 per share before he got out of it. It had since that time risen to more than $60 per share. He was upset about getting out, since his advisor was still recommending the stock. That stock, incidentally, had only earned seven cents during the last 12 months. It also was only one of several losers that had plagued his account.
This investor was upset because he had let his family and friends down. He hadn’t protected them. However, I pointed out that he had only given back the gains that he had made over the last 12 months; it could have been much worse. Indeed, now he had the opportunity to learn from his mistakes and to make sure he didn’t make similar mistakes in the future."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-112-115-protecting-yourself-in-tough-markets-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-112-115-protecting-yourself-in-tough-markets-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-112-115-protecting-yourself-in-tough-markets-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c03-onbuild-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:3 (116-121): On Building Point & Figure Charts by Daryl Guppy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On Building Point & Figure Charts by Daryl Guppy
Point & figure charting is one of the classic techniques of technical analysis. Here's a refresher look at the basics.
Point and figure (P&F) charting concentrates on price and its changes by eliminating other elements such as time and volume. Key chart features such as support, resistance and trendlines emerge clearly, suggesting entries based on breakout of trading ranges; risk management levels due to trendline breaks; and profit targets using counts. The technique is popular because it is simple. Point & figure charting uses price data with minimum manipulation, making the charts easy to draw by hand on paper or on a spreadsheet. The P&F chart can tell me if I’m wasting time in considering a trade. Like a pedestrian crossing light, it flashes instructions: walk, don’t walk; trade, don’t trade. The P&F approach works equally well with liquid and thinly traded stocks. In any time frame, the support, resistance and trendlines are very clear, so traders can use P&F to build a short list of the best trading opportunities. Some charting software use manipulated price information such as percentage differences between closes. The result may obscure the very essence we seek when we turn to P&F charting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-116-121-on-building-point-figure-charts-by-daryl-guppy-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-116-121-on-building-point-figure-charts-by-daryl-guppy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-116-121-on-building-point-figure-charts-by-daryl-guppy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c03-scenari-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:3 (122-124) Scenario Trading by Ruth Barrons Roosevelt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Scenario Trading by Ruth Barrons Roosevelt
Traders can get caught up in a scenario in which they believe the market will unfold. Becoming a neutral observer may be the best strategy.
Scenario trading is trading in accordance with a dominant idea or story. It can be very dangerous— or it can make you a fortune. The scenario acts as an integrating theme and it can dominate your thinking. That theme could be fundamental, technical or personal in nature, and it colors your thought processes. And it definitely affects your trading.
Scenarios are seductive. We are mesmerized by stories. We live our lives in the shadows and sunlight of our personal stories. Think about it. What is the story of your life? What is the story of your trading? Do certain plots repeat themselves with simple variations of people and place?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-122-124-scenario-trading-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-122-124-scenario-trading-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-122-124-scenario-trading-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c03-timinga-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:3 (125-128): Timing a Stock Using the Regression Oscillator by Richard Goedde"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Timing a Stock Using the Regression Oscillator by Richard Goedde
Numerous techniques for timing transactions are available to the technical trader. One popular method uses the difference between the market trend and the price. Market timing strategies can be developed based on the market oscillating above and below the trend. Here are the basics of using an oscillator for timing a stock.
In investment analysis, an oscillator is a mathematical tool used to identify turning points in prices and is useful in timing the purchase and sale of a security. The regression oscillator (RO) fluctuates around a moving linear regression line of closing prices. It can be used to screen a database of stock charts for stocks in a long-term upward trend, determine the appropriate time to buy an upward-trending stock, and give an early warning signal that the long-term upward trend may be reversing.
Here’s how to develop the RO using technical analysis software and also by using a computer spreadsheet if technical analysis software is not available. Let me emphasize two points, however. First of all, the RO may be used in conjunction with any method an investor uses to select a particular stock. The oscillator’s purpose is to better time the purchase after the company has been selected, but because calculating the RO requires calculating the slope of the regression line, an investor may want to use the regression slope to select the stock itself. Second, although future price patterns may not repeat the past, stock prices tend to fluctuate within a range. An oscillator is useful in maximizing gains and minimizing losses regardless of the future direction of prices."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-125-128-timing-a-stock-using-the-regression-oscillator-by-richard-goedde-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-125-128-timing-a-stock-using-the-regression-oscillator-by-richard-goedde-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-125-128-timing-a-stock-using-the-regression-oscillator-by-richard-goedde-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c03-alexsai-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:3 (129-135): Alex Saitta of Salomon Brothers by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Alex Saitta of Salomon Brothers by Thom Hartle
Seasoned equity traders know that interest rates are a key force behind the direction of the stock market. The term \""interest rates,\"" of course, is really a catch-all phrase for a group of markets that professional traders refer to as fixed income, and the most common group of those is the Treasury bond market. So what are some features that any technically based trader or investor should know about the workings of the bond market? To find out, Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Alex Saitta, technical analyst and vice president of Salomon Brothers, via telephone on December 20, 1996, covering such subjects as intermarket relationships, the importance of testing trading theories and more.
Q: Let’s start with your background.
A: I received a management degree from New York University in 1984, and shortly thereafter I went to work for Paine Webber as a sales liaison on the fixed-income trading floor. One of the brokers was a chartist, and he would look for chart patterns like head-and-shoulders, double tops. I noticed that the patterns seemed to work more often than not, which encouraged me to buy my first technical analysis book. Then, about a year later, I left Paine Webber to work for Salomon Brothers in a similar position. In 1989, I moved off the floor and into the research department and began writing a daily technical analysis report entitled Financial Markets Daily Outlook for the firm’s clients, salesmen and traders."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-129-135-alex-saitta-of-salomon-brothers-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-129-135-alex-saitta-of-salomon-brothers-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-129-135-alex-saitta-of-salomon-brothers-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c03-markett-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:3 (136-139): Market Timing and Candlesticks by Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Timing and Candlesticks by Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny
When to buy and what? Those are the questions that have plagued market participants the world over. Here's a proposal on how to use candlesticks to time the market.
To be successful, you have to be in the right place at the right time. There are two parts to that adage, both equally important; the first refers to location, while the second relates to timing. For stock traders, this saying is especially apropos if you consider the location in question to be the selection of which stocks to buy, and the timing in question to be when to buy. A sound market timing strategy incorporates the two. Traders using this technique can forecast the market direction and increase the number of stocks in their portfolio when the market is on an upswing or reduce the number of stocks when the market is headed down.
Here’s an approach that we developed for selecting stocks using market timing. Our method measures the pace of the security markets to give an over all sense for the current direction. The goal of our method is to forecast the market trend, then adjust the portfolio based on the results of this information. Before the specifics of the approach are presented, though, let’s look at the basis of the approach — candlestick patterns."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-136-139-market-timing-and-candlesticks-by-gary-s-wagner-and-bradley-l-matheny-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-136-139-market-timing-and-candlesticks-by-gary-s-wagner-and-bradley-l-matheny-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-3-136-139-market-timing-and-candlesticks-by-gary-s-wagner-and-bradley-l-matheny-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c04-themovi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:4 (145-153): The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence by Mark Vakkur, M.D.
Here's a novel way of using the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram to generate buy and sell signals for stock and mutual fund traders. Not only that, included is a simple means of analyzing risk-adjusted trading system performance.
The moving average convergence/divergence indicator, developed by Gerald Appel, is constructed by taking the difference of two moving averages of the closing price — one short, one long. This difference is smoothed with a moving average, and a comparison is made between the difference and its own moving average. For example, first subtract the 26-period moving average from a 12-period moving average to generate the indicator, which can be plotted as a line. A rising MACD line tells us that the momentum of the market is rising, since the “faster,” shorter moving average is rising more quickly than the “slower,” longer moving average.
Next, obtain a moving average of the MACD line, called a signal line; a popular choice is a nine-period moving average. The traditional interpretation of this indicator is to buy when a rising MACD line crosses above its signal line, and to sell when it crosses below it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-145-153-the-moving-average-convergence-divergence-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-145-153-the-moving-average-convergence-divergence-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-145-153-the-moving-average-convergence-divergence-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c04-thenewd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:4 (154-157): The New Dow Strategy in 1996-97 by Paul and Carole Huebotter"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The New Dow Strategy in 1996-97 by Paul and Carole Huebotter
The Dow dividend strategy - or, more idiomatically, the \""dogs of the Dow\"" - has garnered a lot of attention lately. It, or one of its variations, has been the subject of at least five full-length books in the 1990s as well as countless articles. An August 1996 Stocks & Commodities article covered just this subject and included a theoretical explanation for the success of the Dow dividend strategy and its progeny. Here's an update.
Life is not always kind. When we compiled the 1996 record of the new Dow strategy, we knew that another year like any of the last five would be too much to hope for. In those years, our system outperformed more than 95% of all mutual funds each year. From 1991 through 1995, a $10,000 investment based on the formula of the new Dow strategy grew to $35,203. Over this five-year period, the system outperformed both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the traditional 10-stock version of the Dow dividend strategy each year."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-154-157-the-new-dow-strategy-in-1996-97-by-paul-and-carole-huebotter-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-154-157-the-new-dow-strategy-in-1996-97-by-paul-and-carole-huebotter-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-154-157-the-new-dow-strategy-in-1996-97-by-paul-and-carole-huebotter-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c04-bondspr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:4 (158-161): Bonds, Price Momentum and Trends by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Bonds, Price Momentum and Trends by Alex Saitta
A market trends, and then consolidates, before either resuming the trend or reversing. Is there any way that a technical trader can get a hint about which outcome, the reversal or the continuation, is more likely? This market analyst offers his method for finding out.
One of the first guidelines technical traders learn is The trend is your friend. Then you begin to realize the trend is your friend — until it reverses. At that point, it becomes someone else’s friend and your enemy. So, soon thereafter you find yourself asking, Are there signs\nthat occur before a price trend ends? After all, knowing what usually takes place before a trend ends could be of utmost importance to the trend-follower.
Armed with this knowledge, the trend-follower could conceivably determine whether a countertrend move is a correction or not, and make the appropriate decision."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-158-161-bonds-price-momentum-and-trends-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-158-161-bonds-price-momentum-and-trends-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-158-161-bonds-price-momentum-and-trends-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c04-seasona-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:4 (162-169): Seasonality and Trading by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., with Donna L. McCormick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Seasonality and Trading by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., with Donna L. McCormick
This month, this trader and consultant looks at seasonality as the basis of a trading system.
My search for successful systems began with the brute-force application of neural network technology. I wanted to see if I could get a profitable trading system by using neural networks to generate trading signals based simply on recent price changes. As I anticipated, I found that this simplistic approach does not work very well. I then moved to simple rule-based systems, initially working with rules rooted in theory (for example, the thrust-retracement hypothesis). This provided better results: The systems worked but were not particularly tradable because the per-trade profit was on the small side. However, the results encouraged me enough to proceed with a more complex data-mining approach to rules. Instead of using rules based purely on theory, I let a genetic algorithm (GA) find the rules’ parameters (the lookbacks and thresholds) in a simple price-comparison model. I obtained better results, more tradable than the previous system, but still not ideal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-162-169-seasonality-and-trading-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-with-donna-l-mccormick-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-162-169-seasonality-and-trading-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-with-donna-l-mccormick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-162-169-seasonality-and-trading-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-with-donna-l-mccormick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c04-johnbol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:4 (170-178): John Bollinger and Group Analysis by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: John Bollinger and Group Analysis by Thom Hartle
John Bollinger, who is best known for his work on trading bands, also has other accomplishments to his credit as money manager, publisher and market analyst. Of late he's been looking at some new concepts: group analysis, which isn't a new concept at all, and fuzzy logic as applied to the markets, which is. To find out more, Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle decided to speak with Bollinger on January 23, 1997, via telephone, on topics ranging from group sector analysis to using fuzzy logic in market analysis.
Q: John, you’re a money manager, a publisher, and a\nmarket analyst. Tell us about some of your latest research into deciphering the markets. What have you been doing most recently?
A: Probably the most exciting work that I’ve done of late is a return to work I was doing years ago, in the area of group analysis. Back when I first started my career, a company called Remote Computing, which at the time owned Dial Data, offered a service called Merlin. Merlin, as part of its daily service, had a wonderful table available. The table was the individual Standard & Poor’s industry groups in the order of their deviation from an average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-170-178-john-bollinger-and-group-analysis-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-170-178-john-bollinger-and-group-analysis-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-170-178-john-bollinger-and-group-analysis-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c04-thefail-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:4 (179-186O): The Failed Trade by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Failed Trade by Thomas Bulkowski
Sometimes a trade doesn't work out the way you hoped it would, but you can always learn from your mistakes if you take the time to review your trades. Take a lesson from this failed trade.
After I began trading in the stock market in earnest, I started a notebook with commentary about all my trades. In it, I discuss the reasons for buying a stock and note them shortly after purchase. When I sell a stock, I note reasons for the success or failure of the trade. The notebook is divided into investment styles: Trend channel trade, triangles, 1-2-3 trend change, long-term holding, fundamental value and so forth. I can review my trades by investment style and recall the lessons I learned from each trade.
Experience allows us to recognize a mistake when we make it again. Well, I want to minimize my mistakes, and so I use the notebook to help identify patterns before they become significant problems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-179-186o-the-failed-trade-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-179-186o-the-failed-trade-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-179-186o-the-failed-trade-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c04-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:4 (187-189): Trading in the Moment by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading in the Moment by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
You don't have choices regarding the past, but you do have choices regarding your future. Here are some ideas about how you can change your perception of the future.
When a trader lets his imagination take hold instead of concentrating on what the market is actually doing, it can affect his trading decisions. Trading in the moment, without wishful wishing about where the markets may go or negative thinking, is the only way a trader can get the support that he needs to follow his own rules. You may be familiar with these mindsets, mindsets that assume an outcome because of some unfounded assumption or belief:
• Everything comes in threes. This has to be a good trade because two good things happened today.
• I’d better get out before the big boys hit my stop.
• I’m always in the opposite direction of the right move."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-187-189-trading-in-the-moment-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-187-189-trading-in-the-moment-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-187-189-trading-in-the-moment-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c04-theesse-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:4 (190-193): The Essence of Market Profits by Victor Sperandeo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Essence of Market Profits by Victor Sperandeo
The key to making money in the markets is having the major trends at your back. This well-known money manager points to the importance of looking at the big picture.
Popular beliefs about investment profits reflect a number of divergent points of view. These beliefs\nrange from microfundamental analysis — otherwise known as “stock picking” — and technical analysis, both of which rely on the skill of the money manager, all the way to the random walk theory, which states that skill plays no part whatsoever in achieving attractive returns. The importance of analytical frameworks notwithstanding, such methods neither create profits nor answer the question of what, in fact, does. The answer to this, the most fundamental investment question of all, is actually rather simple: Long-term trends are what create profits and losses in a given market. Fundamental macroeconomic forces are responsible for creating the trend itself, but once in force, the overriding investment trend will continue until a new set of fundamentals are strong enough to change it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-190-193-the-essence-of-market-profits-by-victor-sperandeo-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-190-193-the-essence-of-market-profits-by-victor-sperandeo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-4-190-193-the-essence-of-market-profits-by-victor-sperandeo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c05-walkfor-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:5 (199-205): Walk Forward With the Xau Bond Fund System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Walk Forward With the Xau Bond Fund System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
The system developer has various optimization techniques to choose from. Here, Contributing Editor Dennis Meyers updates his previous work using the walk-forward optimization method.
Previously, I examined the relationship between the\nPhiladelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX) daily gold\nand silver stock index (XAU) and the Fidelity Long-Term Government Bond Fund (FGOVX). In that article, I used a walk-forward optimization technique to determine the system parameters. The data window for the research began on December 19, 1983, and ended December 31, 1995. This article will update the system parameters with a data window ended December 31, 1996."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-199-205-walk-forward-with-the-xau-bond-fund-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-199-205-walk-forward-with-the-xau-bond-fund-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-199-205-walk-forward-with-the-xau-bond-fund-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c05-taperea-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:5 (206-211): Tape Reading And Daytrading Stock Index Futures by Gary Smith"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tape Reading And Daytrading Stock Index Futures by Gary Smith
Tape reading isn’t terribly complicated. In Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Edwin LeFèvre said it best: “This matter of tape reading is not so complicated as it appears. Of course you need experience. … The object of reading the tape is to ascertain, first, how and next when to trade — that is, whether it is wiser to buy than sell. … You watch the market — that is, the course of prices as recorded by the tape — that is, the price tendency.” Two key issues for traders here. First, the objective of reading the tape is to discover whether you should buy or sell. But in an understated, yet equally important manner, LeFèvre avers that you need experience to become a profitable tape reader.
Here, a professional trader walks us through a recent trade he made and details the reasoning behind his decisions. He also shows that trading skills don't need to be complicated, but they do have to be well practiced."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-206-211-tape-reading-and-daytrading-stock-index-futures-by-gary-smith-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-206-211-tape-reading-and-daytrading-stock-index-futures-by-gary-smith-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-206-211-tape-reading-and-daytrading-stock-index-futures-by-gary-smith-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c05-cyclesa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:5 (212-220): Cycles and Trading Systems by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cycles and Trading Systems by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D.
This time, this Contributing Writer looks at using cycles as the basis of a trading system.
In previous articles, my search for successful trading systems led me to discover a very effective development methodology: the use of genetic algorithms to find not only appropriate rule parameters, but also optimal combinations of rules chosen from a large set of rule templates I provided. Since then, my intention has been to acquire useful knowledge about the markets that may be cast into rule templates. With that in mind, I decided to explore some simple but powerful ideas regarding market behavior that could be easily tested in TradeStation. Ideas that prove useful may be cast into rule templates later and incorporated into the genetic search methodology to produce some truly outstanding systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-212-220-cycles-and-trading-systems-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-212-220-cycles-and-trading-systems-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-212-220-cycles-and-trading-systems-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c05-dealing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:5 (221-224): Dealing with Change by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dealing with Change by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Change is a part of life, and for a trader, it can be a problem or an opportunity. Here's how a trader can make sure it's not a problem.
In recent times, I have received countless calls from floor traders on their concerns regarding their move to a new building and/or a new floor. Some of their concerns: Are the new pits too large? Will people be able to see the orders being placed? Will the change in the positioning of the pits and the traders upset their relationships to each other? Will traders from the smaller pits be able to see into the larger pits? For other floor traders, the mere act of rearranging the pits spells trouble. Haunting fears and questions keep invading their focus and affecting their performance equilibrium.
These changes have thrown everything out of balance for these traders, and a loss of equilibrium is a serious matter for any trader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-221-224-dealing-with-change-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-221-224-dealing-with-change-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-221-224-dealing-with-change-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c05-searchi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:5 (225-234): Searching for Clues with Jay Kaeppel by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Searching for Clues with Jay Kaeppel by Thom Hartle
Devising and implementing a strategy is the key to successful trading, according to Jay Kaeppel, director of market research for Essex Trading Co., Ltd. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Kaeppel via phone on February 18, 1997, to inquire about his favorite techniques for investing in the stock market, trading futures and options.
Q: Let’s start with a little history.
A: Okay. My first job, after I finished college, was with\nan oil company as an accountant. At the same time, I actively followed the markets on the side.
Q: What year was that?
A: That was 1981. In 1984, the company was bought and I was laid off, so I started my own company. For about five years, I published a newsletter —The Mutual Fund Switch Service. Then in 1989, I came here to Essex Trading as director of market research. We develop software for futures and options traders. In 1995, we started managing money as a commodities trading advisor (CTA). I’ve continued to do system development, research and writing. Just recently, we published the Pro-Vest Option Trading Method, which is a rule-based approach for trading options."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-225-234-searching-for-clues-with-jay-kaeppel-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-225-234-searching-for-clues-with-jay-kaeppel-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-225-234-searching-for-clues-with-jay-kaeppel-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c05-onrisin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:5 (235-242): On Rising Wedges by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On Rising Wedges by Thomas Bulkowski
As your stock rises and sector rotation becomes more pronounced, it's wise to be alert to a chart formation called a rising wedge. Rising wedges can get you out at the top before your stock tumbles. Here's a refresher on this intriguing formation.
Rising and falling wedges share common traits with the triangle family. In previous articles, I discussed\nthree forms of triangles — symmetrical, ascending and descending triangles. Recall that symmetrical triangles have bounding lines — one slopes upward, while the other slopes downward. In ascending triangles, the top boundary region is described by a flat line, while the other boundary region slopes up to meet it. Descending triangles have a flat region as their base while the top slopes downward. Lines connecting the boundary regions intersect at the triangle apex and have generally diminishing volume over time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-235-242-on-rising-wedges-by-thomas-bulkowski-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-235-242-on-rising-wedges-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-235-242-on-rising-wedges-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c05-thepring-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:5 (243-245): The Pring Money Flow Indicator by Martin Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Pring Money Flow Indicator by Martin Pring
Interest rates often lead the stock market. Here's a technique to compare the yield on three-month commercial paper to the Standard & Poor's 500, creating an indicator for the stock market.
Over the past several years, the concept of intermarket relationships has gained in popularity. The analyses for these relationships are calculated using the comparison of one series against another, a good example being gold against the dollar. It is possible to derive useful indicators that take advantage of these relationships.
A key intermarket relationship exists between equity prices and short-term interest rates. It is a well-known fact that changes in the trend of short-term interest rates lead those of stock prices at major turning points. I find it useful to compare the progress of the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index with an S&P Composite adjusted by the level of short-term interest rates. In this comparison, the adjusted series is calculated by dividing the S&P by the yield on three-month commercial paper."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-243-245-the-pring-money-flow-indicator-by-martin-pring-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-243-245-the-pring-money-flow-indicator-by-martin-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-5-243-245-the-pring-money-flow-indicator-by-martin-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c06-thebump-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:6 (247-254): The Bump-And-Run Reversal by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Bump-And-Run Reversal by Thomas Bulkowski
Here's a new chart pattern that suggests when to take profits before a trend change begins. Included is a review of past performance.
Isn’t it strange how an idea occurs? Being hit by a falling apple led Sir Isaac Newton to extrapolate that the apple was acted upon by the same force as that which allows the moon to orbit the Earth. Similarly, while I was doing research on price prediction, a thought came to me when I came across an illustration showing the measure of a head-and-shoulders formation. I wondered if there were a simple measuring technique to determine how far prices would fall once a trendline had been penetrated. In my quest to answer the question, I discovered a trendline formation that I call the bump-and-run reversal (BARR).
\nBefore you can identify a bump-and-run reversal, you need to draw an upsloping trendline correctly. Rising trendlines connect the lows of a price series and represent an area of support. Suffice it to say that you locate the lowest low on the chart for the period being considered. From that point, draw a line to the highest minor low before the highest high without crossing any prices in between. The method is simple, repeatable and accurate."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-247-254-the-bump-and-run-reversal-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-247-254-the-bump-and-run-reversal-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-247-254-the-bump-and-run-reversal-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c06-bondmar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:6 (255-260): Bond Market Timing Revisited by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Bond Market Timing Revisited by Jay Kaeppel
Here's an update of this author's article from August 1994 on trading bond funds using Barron's Gold Mining Index as an indicator. In addition, take a look at a new version of that model, as well as information on other ways to take advantage of the timing signals it generates.
An article I wrote that appeared in the August 1994 STOCKS & COMMODITIES focused on bond fund investing and detailed a simple bond market timing\nmodel that signaled when to switch between long-term bond funds and short-term bond funds. This article will update the results of that timing model, present a new version that appears to enhance results as well as impart information on other ways to take advantage of the timing signals it generates.
Bond prices rise and fall inversely to interest rate movements, and long-term bonds experience greater price volatility than short-term bond funds. Ideally, when interest rates are falling, a trader or investor will be in long-term bonds to maximize price appreciation, and when interest rates are rising, in short-term bonds or even money market funds to maximize capital preservation and to reinvest more quickly. I have found that changes in inflationary expectations identify points in time when the odds significantly favor a rise or decline in interest rates during the next 12 months."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-255-260-bond-market-timing-revisited-by-jay-kaeppel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-255-260-bond-market-timing-revisited-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-255-260-bond-market-timing-revisited-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c06-lunarcy-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:6 (261-266): Lunar Cycles and Trading by J. O Katz, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Lunar Cycles and Trading by J. O Katz, Ph.D.
This month, this Contributing Writer looks at using lunar cycles as the basis of a trading system.
In my previous two articles, I focused on cycles — rhythmic oscillations that occur with a certain periodicity or frequency. Initially, I explored seasonal\ncycles, which I defined as recurrent phenomena consistently connected to the calendar, and found that fairly good predictions could be made on the basis of historical market behaviors linked to specific dates as well as times of the year. Then I attempted to find cycles that, unlike seasonal influences, were not overtly related to any other kind of phenomena but were merely recurrent rhythms or oscillations in the market; while performance across samples and markets was somewhat mixed, the filter bank method I developed for testing this hypothesis appeared to exhibit some potential as the basis for an effective trading strategy based on cycles.
This time, I will return to analyzing the cyclic market behavior determined by underlying forces. Specifically, I will examine the relationship between market behavior and lunar rhythms. As before, my goal is to find useful knowledge to cast into rule templates and add to the template pool from which to create optimal combinations and parameters for successful trading systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-261-266-lunar-cycles-and-trading-by-j-o-katz-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-261-266-lunar-cycles-and-trading-by-j-o-katz-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-261-266-lunar-cycles-and-trading-by-j-o-katz-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c06-ontheae-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:6 (267-273): On the Aerodynamic Trader: Constance Brown by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On the Aerodynamic Trader: Constance Brown by Thom Hartle
Aerodynamic may seem like a peculiar description for a trader, considering what the word brings to mind at first glance: smooth and sleek, streamlined to minimize resistance. And yet, think about it. Successful traders are mentally streamlined. Winning traders display minimal emotional resistance to a high-risk environment, only trusting their skills to trade. This focused mental state is comparable to those of top athletes who go into head-to-head competition concentrating on their goal, free of any excess mental baggage that could weaken their performance; they operate with a mental toughness to bring home the gold. One trader knows both challenges: Connie Brown, who was at one time a world-class swimmer, and who is today a professional trader as well as the author of the work Aerodynamic Trading. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Brown via telephone on March 24, 1997, about trading, the similarities to athletic competition and other topics.
Q: So did you come right out of school and jump into trading?
A: No. My business career began with Eastman Kodak. I was first hired as a sales representative and had various positions throughout my 11 years there. By the time I finally resigned from Kodak, I was a brand manager with responsibilities for Kodak’s professional color films. That was back in the days when the Hunt brothers had such an impact on the silver market.
Q: So you were aware of the Hunt brothers and the silver market before you actually got into the market?
A: Definitely! Silver is a major cost factor in manufacturing film, so I became very interested in the futures markets. Of course, I didn’t know very much about the markets, but I started asking a lot of questions, and my interest grew into a passion. Soon, I found I was working on my charts most of the night and on the marketing plans by day. Something had to go. I was still very young at the time, and the prospect of living in Rochester, NY, for the rest of my working days, well —"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-267-273-on-the-aerodynamic-trader-constance-brown-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-267-273-on-the-aerodynamic-trader-constance-brown-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-267-273-on-the-aerodynamic-trader-constance-brown-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c06-checkin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:6 (274-279): Checking for Stationarity by Gregory N. Hight"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Checking for Stationarity by Gregory N. Hight
A price chart is really a time series, and if you're using technical analysis on one segment, then it's important that the statistical characteristics are the same throughout the data. This is called stationarity. Here's a method for verifying that the data is statistically consistent.
It doesn’t matter whether you analyze markets using technical or fundamental methods. If you’re interested in trends and patterns, you’re using time series data.\nYou’ve probably illustrated trends and patterns using a chart with time on the horizontal axis and the\ndependent measure (price, volume and so forth) on the vertical axis. This format is simply a time series format. So whenever a time series is discussed, think of a simple bar chart.
Logic favors the idea that all elements of a single time series — that is, the individual observations — share defining properties. Observations in the first half of a time series should measure the same thing as in the second half. What sort of a time series might not? Consider a time series composed of a single corporation’s stock price before and after a merger. A merger could be a radical change in the fundamentals of the company, and so the data would lack the homogeneity needed for all observations to share defining properties. Other, less conspicuous changes, such as shifts in industry, market, economy or political stability, can erode the necessary homogeneity. You can’t compare apples and oranges in the same time series."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-274-279-checking-for-stationarity-by-gregory-n-hight-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-274-279-checking-for-stationarity-by-gregory-n-hight-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-274-279-checking-for-stationarity-by-gregory-n-hight-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c06-playing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:6 (280-284): Playing TRIX: The Triple Exponential Smoothing Oscillator by Joe Luisi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Playing TRIX: The Triple Exponential Smoothing Oscillator by Joe Luisi
Here's a look at a tried-and-true favorite, an oscillator that traders can use to determine the trend of the market.
With each technical analysis software package comes a host of technical indicators, yet more often than not, the manual accompanying the package only provides a series of one-page guidelines describing how to use each indicator. So here’s a more in-depth look at a particular indicator that’s often found in those packages, one that for the most part is overlooked but has a real use for the technician:
The triple exponential smoothing oscillator (TRIX). The value of TRIX as an oscillator lies in that it is a leading\nindicator, whereas other technical tools are generally lagging indicators. TRIX leads a market because it uses a differencing function —after smoothing the data to reduce the impact of noise around the trend, the difference between each day’s smoothed version of the closing prices is measured."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-280-284-playing-trix-the-triple-exponential-smoothing-oscillator-by-joe-luisi-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-280-284-playing-trix-the-triple-exponential-smoothing-oscillator-by-joe-luisi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-6-280-284-playing-trix-the-triple-exponential-smoothing-oscillator-by-joe-luisi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c07-rainbow-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:7 (289-297): Rainbow Charts by Mel Widner, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here's a way that traders can use color for a visual cue about changes in trends
Repeated smoothing of data gives a spectrum of trends that, when plotted in color, have the appearance of a rainbow. Observe them all, pick your time frame, and act accordingly. The rainbow oscillator, a trendfollowing oscillator, is derived from a consensus of the trends.
Is there a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow? A fanciful and rhetorical question, but one that may in the final analysis have some truth. One approach to finding gold is momentum tracking and trend-following. Trend-following is a common, if not the most common, timing method used by traders and investors. In a perfect world, with smooth, continuous data, it would be easy to determine the direction of the price movement, open a position, hold it until the conditions change and then close the position. The underlying premise is that prices have momentum and inertia and will continue in the same direction until something occurs fundamentally to change that."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-289-297-rainbow-charts-by-mel-widner-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-289-297-rainbow-charts-by-mel-widner-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-289-297-rainbow-charts-by-mel-widner-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c07-iswrong-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:7 (298-300): Is Wrong Ever Right? by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Following a strategy is key to success in the markets, but what if you make deliberately wrong decisions and still make money? Here are some ways to avoid this form of self sabotage.
If traders are going to succeed over the long haul, they must follow their own rules; and in order to do so, they must maintain a state of personal and emotional balance. This paradigm is the essence of my work with\ntraders. However, the problem with this strategy is that we are talking about results over time. In the short term, unfortunately, things can happen quite differently; even the most carefully conceived and faithfully followed system will periodically produce losses. And even more vexing is the fact that, sometimes, breaking your rules can result in significant wins.
This paradox was brought home to me recently when I attended an industry conference. In discussing with another conferencegoer on how to keep traders faithful to their rules, he pointed out that markets will sometimes reward bad habits and as a result, the experience of doing the wrong thing and winning despite it reinforces the bad habit. As we explored this phenomenon through examples of traders we knew who had fallen prey to this temptation, we talked about what happens to us when doing something we know is wrong gives us an unexpected reward."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-298-300-is-wrong-ever-right-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-298-300-is-wrong-ever-right-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-298-300-is-wrong-ever-right-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c07-selling-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:7 (301-305): Selling Vertical Credit Spreads by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The options trader has available many different strategies,\nvirtually to suit every need and intent. Here’s how to use the credit spread strategy.
by Jay Kaeppel
Most of the money made in options trading is made by those\nwho write options rather than by those who buy them. This is\nbecause an option is a wasting asset, the price of which is composed of intrinsic value (equal to the amount by which the\noption is in the moneyÝ) and time premium. (Out-of-the-moneyÝ\noptions have no intrinsic value and their prices are composed entirely of time premium.) Options lose all of their time premium by expiration, which is referred to as time decay. Because they have no intrinsic value, out-of-the-money options expire worthless.\nOption writers take advantage of this by selling option\npremium and waiting for time decay to work in their favor.
The downside is that writing naked options entails assum-ing\nunlimited risk, a risk that most traders simply cannot\nafford to take. As a result, many option traders never consider writing options. However, there is a strategy that allows even small traders to write options to take advantage of time decay without exposing themselves to unlimited risk. This strategy is referred to as selling a vertical credit spread.
Selling a vertical credit spread involves selling an out-of-the-money callÝ or putÝ option and simultaneously buying a further out-of-the-money call or put. This strategy allows traders to profit from time decay by selling out-of-the-money options. By also buying a further out-of the money option, the trader is not exposed to the unlimited risk associated with selling nakedÝ options.
The primary disadvantage of this strategy is that profit\npotential is limited to the difference between the price of the option sold and that of the option bought. In addition, down-side risk usually exceeds the profit potential. A trader might have to risk a loss of $1,500 to make a profit of $500."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-301-305-selling-vertical-credit-spreads-by-jay-kaeppel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-301-305-selling-vertical-credit-spreads-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-301-305-selling-vertical-credit-spreads-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c07-dynamic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph.D., and David Stendahl"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph.D., and David Stendahl
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading levels. However, these oscillator-driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system. An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every\nvalue of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-306-310-dynamic-zones-by-leo-zamansky-ph-d-and-david-stendahl-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-306-310-dynamic-zones-by-leo-zamansky-ph-d-and-david-stendahl-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-306-310-dynamic-zones-by-leo-zamansky-ph-d-and-david-stendahl-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c07-evaluat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:7 (311-317): Evaluating Trading Systems with Statistics by J. Katz, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here, in part 1 of two, these Contributing Writers explain the steps necessary to evaluate trading system behavior with the use of statistics.
by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick
Most systems I have seen are simply optimized by being tested\nwith different parameters, examined for profitability and\nsometimes assessed for a few other characteristics. On occa-sion, I have encountered systems tested on perhaps one or\ntwo out-of-sampleÝ periods to determine whether performance would hold up. However, few who write about system development or developers themselves have attempted to estimate probabilities or compute statistical analyses on trading systems to assess likely future system performance. For the sake of simplicity, I have often been guilty of omitting such analyses from my own work.
However, I often get comments regarding issues that statistics directly bear upon, such as sample size, replicability, curve-fitting, generalization and determining whether a system will trade profitably or fall apart when finally put to the test. I have also had discussions with system developers who are reluctant to apply any optimization strategy because of a fear of curve-fitting rooted in a lack of knowledge about the statistical issues involved."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-311-317-evaluating-trading-systems-with-statistics-by-j-katz-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-311-317-evaluating-trading-systems-with-statistics-by-j-katz-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-311-317-evaluating-trading-systems-with-statistics-by-j-katz-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c07-abuysig-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:7 (318-322): Contextual Trader Larry Williams by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""In the arena of technical analysis, it’s hard to imagine not ever having heard about Larry Williams, well known as trader, author, newletter editor and money manager. Think of it — virtually every technical-based software has some of his\ntechnical indicators. Despite all that, surprisingly, Williams is not as fond of technical analysis as you might expect. Why? We found out the answer when STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke to Williams via phone on April 23, 1997, discussing Williams’s views on technical analysis, money management and other topics.
When did you first start trading? In 1962 I started fol-lowing the stock market while I was attending the University of Oregon. I still remember how someone pointed out to me that one of the most active stocks had gone up two and a half\npoints for the day. I asked, “What does that mean?” and whoever it was replied, “You would have made $250 today!”\nWow! Back in the 1960s, that was a lot of money. I said, “Man, this beats work!” And ironically, I’ve been working at it ever since! When did you move from stocks to commodities?\nI traded stocks from 1966 to about 1970. In 1970, an old trader showed me how commodities worked. He had noticed\nthat I had done pretty well trading stocks, and he told me I ought to try trading commodities. At that point in my life, I still believed in technical analysis, so I thought my methods\nwould work in the commodities markets as well."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-318-322-contextual-trader-larry-williams-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-318-322-contextual-trader-larry-williams-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-318-322-contextual-trader-larry-williams-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c07-parabol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:7 (329-331): Parabolics by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here’s a look at the parabolic trading system, with details on the way it works and how it’s calculated.
by John Sweeney
Few books have produced as many indicators of lasting value\nas J. Welles Wilder’s New Concepts in Technical Trading Sys-tems. From that single text came the volatility index, the directional movement index, the relative strength index and the parabolic system, among numerous others. Even today, these four are staples of virtually every technical analysis toolbox after all these years because their robust simplicity gets directly to the concepts that percolate in traders’ minds upon viewing a chart.
One of the most robust — in the sense of simplicity,\nintuitive appeal and effectiveness — is the parabolic time/\nprice system, as Wilder referred to it. He named the system so because the curved lines resulting from his computations\nresembled a parabolicÝ (or French) curve, though they were\nnot true parabolas. It was within the conventions of the period to give indicators zippy, if inaccurate, names — stochastics being a similar example.
Wilder presented the indicator as a part of a stop-and-reverse (SAR) system — that is, you used the indicator to go\nlong or short so you were constantly in the market. Thus, it\nwas designed to be a trading indicator, not something to be\nused for entering into long-term positions. A look at Figure\n1 will reinforce that idea."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-329-331-parabolics-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-329-331-parabolics-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-329-331-parabolics-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c08-theturb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:7 (337-346): The Turbo A/D, NH Market System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Turbo A/D, NH, NL Market System
This Contributing Editor has looked into using the\ninternal market statistics to generate stock market\ntrading signals. Here, he upgrades one of his previously\npublished market timing systems and discusses optimization strategies.
In the January 1997 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I presented a\nstock market timing system that uses the daily advancing-declining issues, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)\nand the daily new highs and new lows on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as its bases for generating signals. That model developed a relative strength indicator (ADRrs) that compared a Dow Jones strength (DJstr) indicator to an advance-decline issues strength (ADRstr) indicator. ADRrs was simply defined as ADRstr minus DJstr.
However, this relative strength formulation had a\nproblem that I refer to as a lockout condition. Both the\nADRstr and the DJstr move between the values of -50\nand +50. The problem occurs when the DJstr moves before the ADRstr instead of after. In a sustained upmove or downmove, the DJstr locks at its extreme of +50 or -50 first and then the ADRstr catches up and locks at its extreme of +50 or -50, producing an ADRrs locked at zero. Since ADRrs must be equal to or greater than +4 to issue a buy signal or -40 to issue\na sell signal, the lockout prevents the model from issuing a timely signal when the DJstr moves strongly before the ADRstr. Although I minimized the lockout problem in subsequent work, we’ll take another approach and develop a new market model using the advancing and declining issues and volume, new highs and new lows."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-337-346-the-turbo-a-d-nh-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-337-346-the-turbo-a-d-nh-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-7-337-346-the-turbo-a-d-nh-market-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c08-usingst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:8 (347-352): Using Statistics with Trading Systems J.Katz, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Statistics With Trading Systems: by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick
In part 1, Katz and McCormick looked at the underpinnings\nof how statistics can help the trader determine the feasibility of a system. This month, in part 2, they explain the steps necessary to evaluate trading system behavior with the use of statistics.
Last month, I laid the groundwork for how statistics can help the trader determine whether the per-formance of a system is due to chance, or if the trading model is valid. I explained how to use samples to make inferences about the populations from which they are drawn. Another issue I addressed was that of optimization — improving system performance by adjusting its parameters until the system performs its best on what the developer hopes is a representative sample. If the result is sufficiently good or the sample on which it was based sufficiently large so as to bring the probability of getting something by chance alone down to a sufficiently small value, there may still be a very significant result, even if many parameters have been optimized.
Next, I presented two examples. First, I optimized a system\non one sample of data (the in-sample data) and second, I ran\nthe system on another sample (the out-of-sample data), in\nboth cases calculating a variety of statistics. I used the lunar model trading system from my “Lunar cycles and trading”\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES article, the TradeStation code for\nwhich can be found in Figure 1. I used the Standard & Poor’s\n500 index as the market, employing end-of-day, continuous\ncontract data. First, let’s recap the two examples introduced\nin the last issue and the information pertinent to both, after which I will interpret the results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-347-352-using-statistics-with-trading-systems-j-katz-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-347-352-using-statistics-with-trading-systems-j-katz-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-347-352-using-statistics-with-trading-systems-j-katz-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c08-thetdra-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:8 (353-359): The TD Range Expansion Index (TD REI): by Thomas DeMark"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The TD Range Expansion Index (TD REI)
by Thomas DeMark
Here, the author of The New Science of Technical Analysis\nand the brand-new New Market Timing Techniques explains\nhow to use the TD REI and the TD Price Oscillator Qualifier.
Throughout my 26-year career in the investment business, I have studied and tested many widely followed market timing oscilla-tors. Overall, I have questioned their construction, ambiguous in-terpretation and discretionary application.\nConsequently, I have developed my own series of indicators,\nand to simplify their application, I have assigned to them an objective interpretive process. In The New Science of Technical Analysis I pre-sented the TD Range Expansion Index (TD REI), and now I have improved upon it, as explained in my latest book, New Market Timing Techniques. Here, then, is a discussion of salient TD REI components, as well as the trigger mechanism referred to as the TD Price Oscillator Qualifier (TDPOQ). The TDPOQ is critical to the proper application and execution of the TD REI as well as many other widely followed over-bought/oversold oscillators.
TO START
My frustration with most conventional overbought/oversold\noscillators stems from the steps typically used to calculate\nthem. Most often, the method for calculation requires not just a comparison of two consecutive daily closing prices, but also a series of daily indicator values calculated by using exponential smoothing. Other than the fact that it has become market convention to perform these mathematical exercises for most widely followed indicators, there seems to exist no other reason to make such daily comparisons or complicated calculations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-353-359-the-td-range-expansion-index-td-rei-by-thomas-demark-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-353-359-the-td-range-expansion-index-td-rei-by-thomas-demark-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-353-359-the-td-range-expansion-index-td-rei-by-thomas-demark-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c08-trading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:8 (360-365): Trading the Wheat/Corn Spread by Scott W. Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading The Wheat/Corn Spread: by Scott W. Barrie
Here’s a seasonally and statistically based intermarket spread trade.
Within a short time, every futures trader learns strategies that go beyond the simple long or short position. In riding the learning curve, the novice trader will, sooner or later, add spread trading to his or her arsenal of strategies.\nHere’s how one particular strategy works, as well as a his-torical review of it.
But first, here are some basic definitions. A spread is\nsimply the price relationship between two or more futures\ncontracts. Futures traders use three basic spread positions:\ninterdelivery (or intramarket) spreads, intermarket spreads,\nand intercommodity spreads. An interdelivery spread, com-monly referred to as an intramarket spread, is the simulta-neous purchase of one delivery month of a given futures\ncontract and the sale of another delivery month of the same\ncommodity on the same exchange. At one time, this type of\nspread was called a calendar spread because the position is\nbased on different calendar months, such as buying July corn\nand selling December corn.
Intermarket spreads, on the other hand, involve the simul-taneous purchase of a given delivery month of a futures\ncontract on one exchange and the simultaneous sale of the\nsame delivery month of the same futures contract on a\ndifferent exchange. One example would be the purchase of\nJuly Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat and the sale of\nJuly Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) wheat in the same\ndelivery year."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-360-365-trading-the-wheat-corn-spread-by-scott-w-barrie-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-360-365-trading-the-wheat-corn-spread-by-scott-w-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-360-365-trading-the-wheat-corn-spread-by-scott-w-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c08-thehead-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:8 (366-372): The Head-and-Shoulders Formation by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Head-and-Shoulders Formation
by Thomas Bulkowski
I was doing research in the public library when a staffer asked me if I could help an elderly lady find a chart of TWA [TWA]. The investment materials are sparse at the library and the periodicals that were available didn’t have what she needed. The library does have an Internet connection, how-ever, so we went surfing looking for a Web page to chart the stock. Within minutes, we had printed out what she was looking for.
Before the ink was dry, she asked me if I knew anything\nabout charts. I told her I did, a little, at which she pointed to the printout and asked, “Is that a double top?” (Figure 1). That was when I looked at the chart and immediately noticed a head-and-shoulders formation. She was, she told me, considering either adding to her position or selling it completely: A typical investor quandary. Figure 1 shows how unlucky she was at having purchased her first lot in early 1996 and riding the head-and-shoulders reversal down. The stock recently changed hands at about $6.\nHave you ever lost money suffering through a head-and-shoulders reversal? Here’s a primer on one of the better-known chart patterns that signal major bottoms and tops.
CHARACTERISTICS
Sometimes it pays to follow more than one stock in an\nindustry to help gauge its health. Research indicates that\nindustry behavior accounts for 15% to 20% of a stock’s price\nfluctuation. Other factors also influence the stock’s price:\nThe economy (30% to 35%), the company (30% to 35%) and\nother factors (15% to 20%).
Such was the case with Cirrus Logic Inc. [CRUS], seen in Figure 2. The chart shows two examples of a head-and-shoulders top. Along with Cirrus, Chips and Technologies [CHPS] and VLSI Technology Inc. [VLSI] both had a head-and-shoulders formation appear during the last quarter of 1996. Charts of the three companies, when taken together, indicated growing weakness in the semiconductor industry. They served to warn the astute investor that the bottom was about to drop out of the high-tech sector."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-366-372-the-head-and-shoulders-formation-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-366-372-the-head-and-shoulders-formation-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-366-372-the-head-and-shoulders-formation-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c08-thesyst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:8 (373-378): The Systematic Trader: Richard Saidenberg by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Systematic Trader - Richard Saidenberg
How many times have you heard that developing your own rules and following them is the way to trade? By now, probably plenty. It’s not just idle speculation, either; Richard Saidenberg, a Commodities Trading Advisor and independent futures trader, discovered that the steps to\nsuccessful trading were based on developing a systematic approach to trading. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Saidenberg via phone on May 20, 1997, and talked to him about system design, the pitfalls to avoid while developing a system as well as other topics.
So what were your early days as a trader like? My father’s a stockbroker, so I was exposed to the markets when I was quite young. In fact, I had learned how options worked by the time I was 15. I learned how to use the Value Line Investment Survey to pick stocks that were ranked first and second for timeliness and safety. So by 1986, when I graduated college, I had made a reasonable amount of money by focusing on companies that I knew: Anheuser-Busch, Coca-Cola, Browning-\nFerris and others. I was doing some trading then, but mostly I was investing.
You caught the beginnings of the bull market in 1982, didn’t you? Yes, and I was aggressive. I would use 50% margin to leverage my position. Then after college, I went to work on the floor of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX). I started out working as a file clerk for specialists in the Major Market Index Options pit, and my job consisted of crossing off numbers on a card and then inputting the information on the card into the computer. When I worked up to specialist clerk, I was right in the middle of the action, and I had to keep track of the specialist’s positions. Toward the end of my stay there, I worked as an arbitrage clerk, which gave me the opportunity to place some arbitrage positions. After I had been there for 10 months, though, I decided that I\nwanted to trade on my own."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-373-378-the-systematic-trader-richard-saidenberg-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-373-378-the-systematic-trader-richard-saidenberg-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-8-373-378-the-systematic-trader-richard-saidenberg-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c09-identif-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:9 (383-389): Identifying Significant Chart Formations by Daniel L. Chesler"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Before computers became commonplace, technical\ntraders spent most of their time studying their charts,\nlooking for consolidation and reversal patterns. Today,\nmany traders have moved away from using\nclassic chart patterns to methods based on quantifiable\nindicators. Here, the two disciplines are combined,\nusing chart analysis and basic indicators to\nidentify trading opportunities.
Despite the growth in mechanical\nsystems trading over the past\ndecade, classical chart pattern\nanalysis continues to enjoy a\nwide following. For example,\nRobert Edwards and John Magee’s Technical Analysis\nof Stock Trends, considered to be the bible of\nclassical charting, remains one of the all-time best-sellers\nin the field of technical analysis. Last year’s\nDow Jones Telerate seminar in New Orleans featured\nno less than six speakers on the topic of classical chart\npatterns, including two institutional traders who run\nproprietary currency trading desks. And in 1995, the\nNew York Reserve Bank undertook an investigation\nof the predictive powers of the venerable head-and-shoulders\nchart pattern. Their research found that the\nhead-and-shoulders pattern yielded significant ex-cess\nprofits in select currency markets. Among their\nexplanations for this phenomenon was that a sufficient\nnumber of traders who recognize the pattern\ninvariably trade it, thus driving prices in the expected\ndirection. And finally, over the past several years\nthere has been a swell of interest and investigation\ninto Wyckoff charting principles, as has been seen in\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES and various publications.\nClearly, charting, the blue-collar approach to technical\nanalysis, is alive and well."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-383-389-identifying-significant-chart-formations-by-daniel-l-chesler-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-383-389-identifying-significant-chart-formations-by-daniel-l-chesler-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-383-389-identifying-significant-chart-formations-by-daniel-l-chesler-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c09-thebasi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:9 (390-396): The Basics of Managing Money by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Why is money management one of the first items that profes-sional traders stress? Why would you think? Here’s an\noverview of risk and several simple mechanical approaches\nto money management.
Preserving capital is essential to\na trader’s long-term survival.\nThe only legitimate objective\nof trading or investing is to\nmake money; if you trade for the\nthrill of it, you are playing the\nworld’s most expensive sport. The\nobjective of any money management\nsystem is simple: If followed,\nit will force you to cut\nlosses short and let profits run.\nMost novice traders — and the bulk of today’s mutual fund\ninvestors — approach any decision with one question on their\nminds: What is my expected gain? They fail to ask a question\nthat is far more important but is often overlooked: What is my potential loss? If your potential loss on a trade equals half your capital, two bad consecutive trades will wipe you out.\nIf given the choice between avoiding a loss or participating\nfully in a gain, our first impulse is often to choose the latter\nover the former. But is that the better choice? Avoiding losses is far more important to long-term performance than making big profits because of two basic mathematical principles:
1. The more your account or portfolio grows, the greater\ndollar impact a given percentage decline will have on\nyour equity.
2. It takes a far greater percentage gain to make up for a\ngiven percentage loss."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-390-396-the-basics-of-managing-money-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-390-396-the-basics-of-managing-money-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-390-396-the-basics-of-managing-money-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c09-breakfa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:9 (397-400): Break Faster Than Rally? by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Do markets decline in value at a faster pace than they rally?\nThe question is put to the test using the Chicago Board of\nTrade Treasury bond futures contract.
Nearly all market analysts agree that the bull market in bonds began in 1981, when the price of the Treasury bond futures contract bottomed at 55-05 (Figure 1). There is, however, an array of disagreement as to when or if the bull market ever ended. In my opinion, the bull market for bonds ended in October 1993, when the futures contract peaked at 122-06. The primary reason for my bearish view? Since the October 1993 peak, the Treasury bond has declined at a faster rate than it has advanced. For example, during the October 1993 to November 1994 selloff (Figure 2), the average daily rate of change was -2.94 ticks (one tick is 1 /32 , or $31.25 for one T-bond futures contract).\nDuring the November 1994 to January 1996 advance (Figure\n3), the daily rate of change was less, +2.78 ticks. During the January to June 1996 selloff, the daily rate of change was -4.59 ticks, while during the June to December 1996 advance, the daily rate of change was only +2.85 ticks (Figure 4). This indicates that sellers have been\nmore aggressive than buyers during the past three years, and\nhence, my market view that the long-term uptrend has been re-versed."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-397-400-break-faster-than-rally-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-397-400-break-faster-than-rally-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-397-400-break-faster-than-rally-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c09-sunspot-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:9 (401-406): Sunspots and Market Activity by J. Katz, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Is increased sunspot activity a precursor to market volatility?
As any amateur radio operator can\ntell you, one of the major influences\non long-distance radio transmissions\nis sunspots, which appear\nto the observer as, literally,\ndark spots on the surface of the\nsun. Why they occur is not known,\nalthough theories abound. One\ntheory holds that they are produced\nby certain peculiarities in\nthe gravitational influences of neighboring planets on the\nsun’s tidal rhythms, while another theory attributes sunspot\nactivity to shifts in the sun’s magnetic poles. During periods of high sunspot activity, short wavelength radio transmissions, which normally carry only as far as line of sight, bounce off the ionosphere and may span distances of up to several thousand miles. This phenomenon is referred to as\nskip. You may have experienced skip when watching televi-sion,\nwhen a signal from a distant station appeared superim-posed\non the signal from the station you were watching.\nConversely, during periods of low sunspot activity, long-distance\ncommunication is much less likely to be achieved at\nshort wavelengths; if you are trying to achieve long-distance\ncommunication, you will need to go to a longer wavelength\nwhen the sun is quiet."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-401-406-sunspots-and-market-activity-by-j-katz-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-401-406-sunspots-and-market-activity-by-j-katz-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-401-406-sunspots-and-market-activity-by-j-katz-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c09-stevesh-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:9 (407-414): Steve Shellans of MoniResearch Newsletter by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Computers have managed to insinuate themselves into our lives these days, but\nnot many of us remember the early days. MoniResearch Newsletter publisher\nSteve Shellans was a pioneer of sorts in the industry; he started to work with\ncomputers in earnest 40 years ago, before manned space flight had even been\nachieved. By the early 1970s, he was a pioneer of another sort when he moved\nout of New York City, the financial center of the nation, across the country, and\nthere eventually building the beginnings of the market timer database that\nwould be the underpinning of The MoniResearch Newsletter. Shellans came\ninto the public eye in the mid-1980s when Money magazine and USA Today\ntook note of his monitoring of the market timing industry. STOCKS & COMMODITIES\nEditor Thom Hartle spoke to Steve Shellans via telephone interview on June 19, 1997, asking him about the differences between classic market timers and\ndynamic asset allocators, why some timing models work better than others, and why\nhiring a professional money manager is, in the long run, much easier on a fragile ego.
Let’s start with your background.\nSure. My undergraduate\nwork was at the Massachusetts\nInstitute of Technology (MIT), and\nafter I received my bachelor of science\nin engineering, I went to work for Exxon\nMath and Systems. That was in 1957. I\ninterviewed with Exxon, thinking that\nthere had to be a job there for somebody\nin chemical engineering. As it turned\nout, they said that they were just forming\na computer department, and would\nI like to join them? I was candid and\ntold them that I had never even seen a\ncomputer before, much less worked\nwith one.\nComputers weren’t exactly sitting on\neveryone’s desks back in 1957.\nIt was definitely a very different world\nthan it is today. But that offer sounded\nlike a great opportunity, and I spent a\nyear or so learning on the job and finding\nout how computers worked. I saw all these bright young kids coming out of college with degrees in computer\nscience, even back then, and so I decided\nthat I had better go back to school and get a degree in com-puter science. That led\nto my master’s degree.\nOne of my specialties\nwas computer graphics, which in turn led to a\nnew career path."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-407-414-steve-shellans-of-moniresearch-newsletter-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-407-414-steve-shellans-of-moniresearch-newsletter-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-407-414-steve-shellans-of-moniresearch-newsletter-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c09-docycl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:9 (415-419): Do Cycles Exist in the Market? by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""This longtime S&C contributor explains the basis of the\nexistence of cycles in market data.
The markets are not always efficient;\nthis is why trading decisions\nbased on technical analysis\nwork. Chart patterns that are discernible,\ntechnical events such as\ndouble bottomsÝ and Elliott\nwavesÝ, allow technically based\ntraders to make intelligent deci-sions.\nAnother key discernible\nevent that technical traders may\nmake use of comes in the form of cycles. As a rule, it is not\na task of much difficulty to identify cycles; a simple ap-proach,\nsuch as measuring the distance between successive\nlows, can be used to measure them, or a more sophisticated\napproach using computer algorithms such as maximum entropy\nspectral analysis (MESA) can be used.\nHowever, the observation that cycles exist is not to imply\nthat they exist at all times. Markets can be caught off-guard\nby events that can and have on occasion dominated and\nobscured present cycles. Research indicates that cycles use-ful\nfor trading are present only about 15% to 30% of the time,\ncorresponding with technician J.M. Hurst’s comment that\n“23% of all price motion is oscillatory in nature and semi-predictable.”\nThe situation is comparable and indeed parallel\nto the problem that the trend-follower faces when he or she\nfinds that the markets trend only a small percentage of the time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-415-419-do-cycles-exist-in-the-market-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-415-419-do-cycles-exist-in-the-market-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-415-419-do-cycles-exist-in-the-market-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c09-managed-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:9 (420-422): Managed Futures and Commodity Trading Advisors by Martin Hiemstra"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are managed futures for you? Mysterious for many investors,\nthey nonetheless fill a particular need and are no riskier than traditional equity investments. Dealing with a professional commodity trading advisor (CTA) can certainly help sort through the confusion.
In early 1997, equity markets\nwere on a roll, consistently\nmaking new highs. As a result,\nit was relatively easy for investors\nto make money in the\nbull market. But many investors\nhave begun to question\nwhether the stock market can\ncontinue to go up. Will their\nportfolios be overexposed if\nthere’s a correction? Regardless\nof how the stock market plays out, diversification is the\nhallmark of any good portfolio, according to portfolio theory.\nOne of the key tenets of modern portfolio theory is that\nmore efficient investment portfolios can be created by diver-sifying\namong asset categories with low to negative correlations\nwith each other — that is, the performance characteristics\nof these asset categories are independent of each other.\nOne of the most proven and dynamic asset classes with a low\ncorrelation to the stock market is the industry of professional\ncommodity traders. Commodity trading advisors (CTAs)\nrepresent a class of professionals who trade commodity and\nfinancial futures on regulated global futures and options\nmarkets."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-420-422-managed-futures-and-commodity-trading-advisors-by-martin-hiemstra-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-420-422-managed-futures-and-commodity-trading-advisors-by-martin-hiemstra-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-420-422-managed-futures-and-commodity-trading-advisors-by-martin-hiemstra-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c09-therela-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.15:9 (423-425): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here, one of the most popular indicators found in most\nanalytical software packages is explained.
When the relative strength index\n(RSI) became popular in the\n1980s, it was touted as the indicator\nthat led every turn in the\nmarket. Indeed, for certain futures\ncontracts, financials and\ncurrencies, it could be prescient:\nIn those markets, it had the peculiar\nability to turn just as the\nfinancials would find a level of support or resistance before\ntaking off to another price level.\nOn other items, say, pork bellies or corn or cocoa, it would\nape the price swings precisely. However, on trending prices,\nit would go up the limits of its excursion and bounce around\nthere for weeks or months until the trend finally reversed. For stocks, its performance could be all over, depending on the trading characteristics of the stock in question.\nClearly, this was an indicator with promise but tricky\nimplementation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-423-425-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-423-425-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-15-9-423-425-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c01-001dyna-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:01 (10-17): Dynamic Asset Allocation: Beyond Buy and Hold by Gary Harloff, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dynamic Asset Allocation: Beyond Buy and Hold by Gary Harloff, Ph.D.
Even during the strongest of bull markets, not every investment rises at the same rate. This range of performance among different investments has led to money managers developing strategies to dynamically allocate among a choice of investments. Here, a money manager explains his recent research into this subject.
Individuals, professionals and institutions diversify their investments over several asset classes to seek a specific return versus risk objective. An example of a typical allocation might be 65% equities, 30% bonds and 5% money markets. Such allocations might be adjusted for investor risk tolerance and/or economic conditions, such as long-term interest rate, inflation, manufacturing capacity utilization, employment level and business cycle position. Usually, many factors are analyzed in combination to determine an asset allocation.There are at least three approaches to asset allocation: strategic, tactical and dynamic. In strategic allocation, the investor allots a fixed percentage to several asset classes for a long period. Periodically, the portfolio is adjusted to bring it back to the original allocation weights, by selling winners and buying losers. When the return from one asset class rises, another typically declines, which reduces overall return."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-10-17-dynamic-asset-allocation-beyond-buy-and-hold-by-gary-harloff-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-10-17-dynamic-asset-allocation-beyond-buy-and-hold-by-gary-harloff-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-10-17-dynamic-asset-allocation-beyond-buy-and-hold-by-gary-harloff-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c01-002zsco-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:01 (19-21): Profiting from the Z-Score by Mike DeAmicis-Roberts"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Profiting from the Z-Score by Mike DeAmicis-Roberts
What is the Z-score? You can use it to identify the types of winning and losing streaks in a trading system. Once the nature of the streaks are determined, then you can use different money management approaches to maximize profitability.
When traders analyze the results of their systems, they frequently look to the percentage of winners as proof of the system’s reliability. In many cases, this is a good indication. However, looking at the percentage of winners and losers only tells part of the story. Sometimes winning trades come in streaks. The trader who learns to exploit these streaks can maximize a system’s profitability.
When a trader views the percentage of winners, he assumes that all the trades in a sample happened independently of each other — that is, the outcome of one trade did not affect the outcome of other trades. A good example of such an independent relationship between examples would be a coin toss. If you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance you will get heads, regardless of the result of the last coin toss. For independent situations, however, past events do not affect the probability of current events."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-19-21-profiting-from-the-z-score-by-mike-deamicis-roberts-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-19-21-profiting-from-the-z-score-by-mike-deamicis-roberts-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-19-21-profiting-from-the-z-score-by-mike-deamicis-roberts-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c01-003tops-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:01 (22-28): Double Tops by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Double Tops by Thomas Bulkowski
It takes more than twin peaks to make a double top. Here's a refresher on the formation.
Double tops aren’t hard to identify. Novice investors with just a smattering of technical knowledge can identify any two peaks close together as a double top. But there’s more to double tops than simple identification, and in my study of the formation and creating subroutines to recognize them, the selection criteria came into sharp focus. A good example of a double top is shown in Figure 1 and distinguishing characteristics are outlined in Figure 2.
The twin peaks are the first thing you’ll notice in a double top. The classic definition as suggested by Robert Edwards and John Magee in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends indicates that the peaks should be no closer than one month apart, and two to three months of separation is more common. In my tests, I used a two-week minimum separation but also filtered the results to obey the classical definition. The figure shows two peaks about four months apart."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-22-28-double-tops-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-22-28-double-tops-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-22-28-double-tops-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c01-004happ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:01 (29-32): The Happy Trader by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Happy Trader by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
What does happiness have to do with being a successful trader? Nothing, it seems. In fact, for most traders, successful trading and happiness may actually be in perpetual conflict.
Over the years, I have worked with many successful traders. Many of them were miserable, and only a handful of them were genuinely happy. Yet nearly all of the traders I have ever interviewed said they wanted happiness as their ultimate goal in life, while very few of them had actually achieved it. Why is it so unusual to find a trader who is both successful and happy? What is it about trading that makes it so difficult to sustain happiness? Is it possible to have it all?
Traders can find a way to bring together their two primary goals of being successful and being happy. This seemingly impossible achievement is made even more significant for traders by the fact that under the right conditions, happiness will not only support successful trading but promote it as well. The few happy and successful traders I have known learned how to balance their trading psychology so they could have it all. And we can learn from their experiences."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-29-32-the-happy-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-29-32-the-happy-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-01-29-32-the-happy-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c01-005smo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:1 (33-37): Smoothing Techniques For More Accurate Signals by Tim Tillson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Smoothing Techniques For More Accurate Signals by Tim Tillson
More sophisticated smoothing techniques can be used to determine market trend. Better trend recognition can lead to more accurate trading signals. Here's how.
After studying his first stock chart, the novice technician is most likely to learn next about moving averages. This is a reasonable progression. First, moving averages are easy to understand. The simple moving average is just the average of a given number, which we will refer to as n, of previous closing prices, recalculated each\nday at the close. And second, technicians use moving averages because the moving average offers a smoother visual image of the market trend. In effect, the moving average removes the noise around the trend.\nThis concept of eliminating noise from the trend is similar to what engineers strive for in their application of digital filters. As R.W. Hamming observed:
Digital filtering includes the process of smoothing, predicting, differentiating, integrating, separation of signals, and removal of noise from a signal. Thus many people who do such things are actually using digital filters without realizing that they are; being unacquainted with the theory, they neither understand what they have done nor the possibilities of what they might have done."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-33-37-smoothing-techniques-for-more-accurate-signals-by-tim-tillson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-33-37-smoothing-techniques-for-more-accurate-signals-by-tim-tillson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-33-37-smoothing-techniques-for-more-accurate-signals-by-tim-tillson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c01-006patt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:1 (38-41): Pattern Recognition In Time Series by Rick Martinelli"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pattern Recognition In Time Series by Rick Martinelli
Here's how to use a spreadsheet as a pattern recognition tool. The spreadsheet can be used to identify the cup-and-handle formation on daily closing prices over a given number of days.
Pattern recognition is a term that has been used to describe a variety of different, but related, phenomena. The ability of a camera and a computer to discern a particular image in a visually noisy environment is a classic example.
For traders, pattern recognition has been used to study chart formations. Our interest here is with patterns that appear in market data charts and that often precede other patterns of interest, such as a sustained upward trend in price."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-38-41-pattern-recognition-in-time-series-by-rick-martinelli-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-38-41-pattern-recognition-in-time-series-by-rick-martinelli-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-38-41-pattern-recognition-in-time-series-by-rick-martinelli-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c01-007int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:1 (42-49): On Synergy and Strategy: Tom Bierovic Of Synergy Futures by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On Synergy and Strategy: Tom Bierovic Of Synergy Futures by Thom Hartle
Thomas Bierovic is president of Synergy Futures, a research, trading, and education company. He also writes Synergy Fax, a daily advisory service for futures traders, and he wrote the well-regarded trading manual A Synergetic Approach to Profitable Trading. His specialty involves \""synergizing\"" a variety of trend-following indicators, directional-movement indicators, momentum oscillators, Fibonacci retracements, and chart patterns to create low-risk/high-reward trading methods. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Bierovic on October 24, 1997, via telephone to talk about his approaches.
So how did you get interested in the markets?
I started in the futures business at a very early age. My father owned a seat on the old Chicago Open Board of Trade, which is now the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange. Back in 1961, I used to earn my allowance money by getting prices on agricultural commodities out of the daily newspaper and constructing point and\nfigure charts, as well as weekly and daily bar charts. I would plot trendlines and at least two moving averages for my dad. And each summer vacation, from junior high through high school, I worked on the floor of the Mid-Am for my father."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-42-49-on-synergy-and-strategy-tom-bierovic-of-synergy-futures-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-42-49-on-synergy-and-strategy-tom-bierovic-of-synergy-futures-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-42-49-on-synergy-and-strategy-tom-bierovic-of-synergy-futures-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c01-008brea-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:1 (50-55): Breaking Out Of Price Channels by Gerald Marisch"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Breaking Out Of Price Channels by Gerald Marisch
Here's a technique based on Tushar Chande's variable-length moving average. The indicator is more responsive to market price movements than a conventional simple or exponential moving average and can be used for position trading. Take a look.
In areas of equity and commodity price analysis, it is accepted that prices can move in only three directions — up, down or sideways. These directions are called trends. In the simplest of charting techniques, trends can be evaluated by the location of closing prices in relationship to a trend’s moving average — whatever\nvalue the trader chooses to assign to the moving average lookback period. Uptrends are identified when the moving average is moving up and closing prices are above the moving average. Downtrends are identified when the moving average is moving down and closes are below the moving average.
But sideways trends are more difficult to define. Prices tend to move horizontally or in slightly up or down directions, while the moving average snakes around the closing prices. Whipsaws† are commonplace. Traders would love to know when prices enter these channels and break out of these channels, and what to do when prices are in these channels. Here’s a simple yet effective technique that may offer a clue."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-50-55-breaking-out-of-price-channels-by-gerald-marisch-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-50-55-breaking-out-of-price-channels-by-gerald-marisch-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-50-55-breaking-out-of-price-channels-by-gerald-marisch-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c10-073comb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:10 (447-456): Combining Statistical and Pattern Analysis by Walter T. Downs"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Patterns are one of the oldest forms of technical analysis. Yet, because patterns can often be subjective, few of us take the time to combine statistical information with this type of market analysis.
Mathematical definition and detailed\nstatistical analysis allow\nus to test patterns, giving us a\nunique view of one particular\nstage of a market. We refer to\nthe quantified use and study of\nrepetitive price formations as\nadvanced pattern recognition theory (APRT). Let us\ndiscuss some key factors found in APRT patterns and\nthen analyze an example of a pattern we have found.\nKEY PATTERN TRAITS\nPatterns display repetitive characteristics. They are\nrelated to five distinct factors. The first three factors\nrefer to the type of market action to be expected. An\nexpansion factor means that the market can be expected\nto move rapidly out of the pattern in a specific\ndirection. A contraction factor means price action\nthat has diminished to a small point, and a transition\nfactor is a point of change between contraction and\nexpansion."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-447-456-combining-statistical-and-pattern-analysis-by-walter-t-downs-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-447-456-combining-statistical-and-pattern-analysis-by-walter-t-downs-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-447-456-combining-statistical-and-pattern-analysis-by-walter-t-downs-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c10-074next-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:10 (457-459): The Next Discount Rate Change by Steven M. Morris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here's a review of the changes in the discount rate, and the implications for investors.
The Federal Reserve Act of\n1913, modified by the banking\nacts of 1933 and 1935, created\nthe Federal Reserve System,\nthe central bank of the United\nStates. The responsibilities of\nthe Fed, as it is commonly\nknown, falls into four categories.\nThe Fed supervises and\nregulates the banks to ensure\nthe safety and financial soundness\nof the country’s banking system. It maintains the stability\nof the financial system and contains any systematic risk\nthat may arise in the financial markets. It provides financial\nservices to the US government, financial institutions, foreign\nofficial institutions and the public, including playing a major\nrole in the foreign exchange markets. The Fed also conducts\nthe nation’s monetary policy by effecting the money and\ncredit conditions in the economy.\nThat last responsibility is implemented in numerous ways.\nOne way is to regulate the growth of the economy by\nadjusting the discount rate, which is the rate the Fed charges\non its short-term loans to banks and other depository institu-tions\nin its role as lender of last resort. Increases in the\ndiscount rate can lead to a restrictive credit situation in the\neconomy, and slow economic growth. On the other hand,\nlowering the discount rate will increase the available supply\nof credit and generally aid the growth rate of the economy."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-457-459-the-next-discount-rate-change-by-steven-m-morris-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-457-459-the-next-discount-rate-change-by-steven-m-morris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-457-459-the-next-discount-rate-change-by-steven-m-morris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c10-075long-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:10 (460-464): Long-Term Fibonacci Support and Resistance by Kevin W. Murphy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here's a historical review of the major swings in the stock market and the Fibonacci relationships.
According to long-term FibonacciÝ\nsupport and resistance\nlevels in the Dow Jones\nIndustrial Average (DJIA), we\nare approaching a notable resistance\nlevel in the stock market.\nMany books have been\nwritten on the Fibonacci sequence\nand its many mathematical\nrelationships; this article\nwill not delve into those\nin any great detail. For those who are unfamiliar with the\nFibonacci sequence, however, I will briefly discuss its basis\nand a few of its mathematical relationships and how they are\nrelevant to investors.\nLeonardo of Pisa, a 13th-century mathematician, illustrated\nwhat would later be known as the Fibonacci sequence\nin his work Liber Abacci, although its mathematical relation-ships\nwere not detailed until much later. The Fibonacci\nsequence is an additive sequence in which each number is the\nsum of the two numbers preceding it. Beginning the sequence\nwith 1, it progresses thus: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89,\n144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597...on to infinity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-460-464-long-term-fibonacci-support-and-resistance-by-kevin-w-murphy-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-460-464-long-term-fibonacci-support-and-resistance-by-kevin-w-murphy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-460-464-long-term-fibonacci-support-and-resistance-by-kevin-w-murphy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c10-076uncv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:10 (465-468): Uncovering Value in an Oversold Stock by Tamalyn V. Crutchfield"",""caption-linebreaks"":""This trader walks us through one of her trades, detailing the indicators she used and the decisions she made.
The age-old philosophies of “Buy,\nlow, sell high” and “Buy cheap,\nsell rich” are the investing approaches\nevery investor strives\ntoward. Unfortunately, the task\nof uncovering qualified stocks\nis not as easy as the four-word\nphilosophies imply. By qualified,\nI refer to an undervalued\nstock that is technically and fundamentally sound enough to\nappreciate in price. The challenge is not just limited to finding\nundervalued stocks; it is to identify those stocks that have\nexhausted their downward tendencies and are setting up for\nan upward move.\nHere is my approach to identify stocks ready to advance.\nWhen screening for technically undervalued stocks, I utilize\ndaily data and employ four primary traditional indicators —\nthe stochastics oscillatorÝ, relative strength indicator (RSI)Ý,\nmoving average crossover, and moving average conver-gence/\ndivergenceÝ (MACD). I also use the multiple time\nframe approach. Using this strategy, I use daily data to screen for acceptable stock candidates and then scrutinize the monthly\nchart for trend confirmation. Finally, I utilize the 60-minute\nchart as my entry timer.\nWhen seeking sound, undervalued stocks, especially those\nwith which you are not intimately familiar, it is important to have sufficient technical and fundamental supporting data.\nEven the staunchest technician will admit that fundamental\nconfirmation is key to proper stock selection."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-465-468-uncovering-value-in-an-oversold-stock-by-tamalyn-v-crutchfield-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-465-468-uncovering-value-in-an-oversold-stock-by-tamalyn-v-crutchfield-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-465-468-uncovering-value-in-an-oversold-stock-by-tamalyn-v-crutchfield-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c10-077cup-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:10 (469-474): Cup-with-Handle and the Computerized Approach by Rick Martinelli and Barry Hyman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The cup-with-handle is a chart pattern that identifies stocks preparing for uptrends. Here are the steps to convert this pattern to a set of rules for screening your stock database to identify likely candidates.
The CANSLIM approach to investing\ncombines technical and\nfundamental analysis to identify\nsome of the promising\nstocks in a cycle. According to\nthe system, only those stocks\nmeeting a set of quantifiable\ncriteria are candidates for purchase.\nIn addition, a stock must\nexhibit one of three or four\ndifferent chart patterns that\nsummarize less quantifiable aspects of the system.\nManually screening for stocks that meet these criteria is a\ndaunting task. To be successful at this system, the investor or money manager should use either The O’Neil Database or\nDaily Graphs, as well as Investor’s Business Daily. In addi-tion\nto using these references, the investor must comb through\nhundreds of stocks daily to find stocks that have set up\naccording to the system and then monitor each candidate\nstock for days or weeks, waiting for them to break out.\nVisually screening the more than 2,400 stocks in Daily\nGraphs each week and then monitoring them is a full-time\njob. And, equally important, this approach misses many\nstocks as they break out and misses others that do not make\nit into these publications."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-469-474-cup-with-handle-and-the-computerized-approach-by-rick-martinelli-and-barry-hyman-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-469-474-cup-with-handle-and-the-computerized-approach-by-rick-martinelli-and-barry-hyman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-469-474-cup-with-handle-and-the-computerized-approach-by-rick-martinelli-and-barry-hyman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c10-078int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:10 (475-481): The Power of Knowledge: James O'Shaughessy by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Money manager and author James O'Shaughnessy is best known for the astute research presented in his books. We spoke to him about what the individual investor should focus on.
So how did you start out, anyway?\nI started out like everyone\nelse, wanting to know\nwhy a stock went up or down. I would\nwatch with surprise when the price of\nstory stocks, where the prospects for the\ncompany was the best thing since sliced\nbread, would tumble, despite the glowing\nrecommendations for it. At the same\ntime, I would see stodgy, old-line industrial\ncompanies such as Goodyear\nTire rallying several hundred percent-age\npoints.\nWhat did that indicate to you?\nI figured that it wasn’t the underlying\nstory of the company that was important.\nEarly on, I believed that the way\nthe stocks moved had to have some sort\nof underlying symmetry.\nSo you believe that it wasn’t a random\nwalk?\nI just did not believe that the market\nwas efficient.\nHow so?\nIf you agree that trading is frictionless\nand investors are rational, and if\nyou agree that everyone has a homogeneous\ninterpretation of the information,\nthen stock markets are efficient."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-475-481-the-power-of-knowledge-james-o-shaughessy-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-475-481-the-power-of-knowledge-james-o-shaughessy-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-475-481-the-power-of-knowledge-james-o-shaughessy-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c10-079gold-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:10 (482-485): Is Gold Still a Barometer by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Is the gold market still an indicator of other trends? Here's a look at the past relationships of gold to the dollar, the Consumer Price Index and the CRB.
Analysts often cite intermarket\nrelationships when touting a\nmarket’s prospects. An analyst\nmight point out that utility\nstocks have reached a new\nhigh, and since they lead interest\nrate instruments, the fixed-income\nmarket would follow.\nOr an analyst might observe\nthat copper is down, and since\ncopper is a key price component\nfor inflation indices, lower copper prices is bullish for\nbonds. When you examine the historical data and compare\nthe impact that one market may have on another, however,\nsome such relationships do not actually exist, and further,\nmost of the relationships that do are not strong.\nBut some do, and they are worth noting.\nOne key barometer is the price of gold. After the inflation-ary\nperiod of the late 1970s and early 1980s, the price of gold\nas an intermarket or inflation indicator fell out of favor among\nWall Street analysts. If you examine the data, however, you’ll\nfind that gold is as valuable an indicator as it ever was."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-482-485-is-gold-still-a-barometer-by-alex-saitta-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-482-485-is-gold-still-a-barometer-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-482-485-is-gold-still-a-barometer-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c10-080flex-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:10 (486-490): Flexible Market Forecast by Michael Kahn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""It is important to be flexible in your market forecasts, as this walk through some recent trends in various markets indicate.
That repetitive price patterns exist\nis one of the foundations of\ntechnical analysis. The reasoning\nis that repetitive patterns\noccur because traders react to\nsimilar market conditions in a\nsimilar fashion. Unfortunately,\nin the real world, the term similar\nmarket conditions is subject\nto interpretation, as the market’s price movements do not\nunfold in a precise, repetitive fashion. Take a look at ex-amples\nof some market movements, including trends and\nreversals, to see how much leeway is required when you\nwatch a technical pattern unfold, and what to do with it.\nThe 30-year US Treasury yield was in a downtrend (with\nrates falling) starting in early 1992. Figure 1 shows that in late\nFebruary 1993 to late May 1993, the yield for the Treasury\nbond had been trading in a narrowing trading range centered\nat 6.9%. I have drawn an upward sloping triangle. In addition,\nthe momentum as indicated by the nine-day relative strength\nindex (RSI) had broken down through its own uptrend line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-486-490-flexible-market-forecast-by-michael-kahn-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-486-490-flexible-market-forecast-by-michael-kahn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-10-486-490-flexible-market-forecast-by-michael-kahn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c11-082cube-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:11 (495-507): The British Pound, Cubed by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Currency markets are popular with trend-followers because of the tendency for currency markets to follow long-term trends. Here's how to smooth out the trend and recognize the major turns.
The British pound (BP) is a major\ncurrency traded worldwide by\ncorporations, institutions, banks,\ncommodity funds and futures\ntraders. The BP is traded 24\nhours a day, and most of the\nworld’s largest banks make a\ntwo-sided market in the British\npound and its associated derivatives.\nSmall traders, however, are constrained to\ntrade the BP futures on the Chicago Mercantile\nExchange (CME). The BP futures are traded daily\nfrom 7:20 am to 2 pm on the CME and from 2:30 pm\nto 7:05 am Monday through Thursday, and then 5:30\npm Sundays to 7:05 am Mondays and holidays on the\nCME Globex system. While the CME BP futures\ntrading volume is small when compared with total\nworldwide bank and institutional trading volume,\narbitrage keeps the futures prices in line with the\nbigger markets."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-495-507-the-british-pound-cubed-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-495-507-the-british-pound-cubed-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-495-507-the-british-pound-cubed-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c11-083mech-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:11 (508-512): Mechanical Trading System and the Art of . . . by Marcello Cattaneo Adorno"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders following mechanical systems can see situations that may affect mechanically based signals. Here's how to include technical signals outside your basic trading signal.
What makes it more difficult still is that often the intuitive\nhunch not to follow a signal proves to be correct, therefore\ntransforming what was originally intended to be a mechanical\ntrading program into what can best be described as a\ndiscretionary trading program based on technical indicators.\nWhile this approach, depending on the trader’s talent and\nexperience, may actually lead to excellent results, it will lack\nthe primary advantages of a well-designed and executed\nmechanical system, advantages such as:
• Predictability of the risk-return profile
• Adaptability to a team approach
• Execution independent from the presence of one specific\ntrader
• Reduced risk that performance will be affected by the\nabsence of the key trader
• Trading philosophy and rules that can be explicitly\ndisclosed to the investor/client if so desired
• Easy-to-disclose improvements and modifications made\nto the system.
The real challenge in trading\nmechanical systems is not in the\ndesign and development phase\nbut in the execution. Execution\ndiscipline is often difficult to\nachieve because of the extra information\nthat the trader has (or\nthinks he or she has) that is not\nreflected in the system logic."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-508-512-mechanical-trading-system-and-the-art-of-by-marcello-cattaneo-adorno-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-508-512-mechanical-trading-system-and-the-art-of-by-marcello-cattaneo-adorno-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-508-512-mechanical-trading-system-and-the-art-of-by-marcello-cattaneo-adorno-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c11-084rev-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:11 (513-517): Reversal Formations: Predictive Power? by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Do classic chart formations such as the head-and-shoulders or the double-bottom/double-top hold up to close scrutiny? Here's a look.
A few years ago, I read a Federal\nReserve Bank report entitled\n“Head-and-shoulders: Not\njust a flaky pattern.” The authors\nof the piece had rigorously\ntested the profitability\nof a trading strategy based on\nthe head-and-shoulders pattern\nin the foreign exchange\nmarket. The results indicated\nthe head-and-shoulders had\nsome predictive power for the German mark and the yen.\nI was taken by the study’s objective approach to what has\nalways been looked upon as a subjective pattern. I wondered\nif tests of the head-and-shoulders as well as of the\ndouble top/bottom would yield similar results in the Trea-sury bond futures market.
\nAPPROACH
I started with the head-and-shoulders pattern. My definitions\nand approach are somewhat similar to those used in the Fed’s\nstudy. My definitions are:
• Reactionary high: A reactionary high is a local maximum\nprice, which is more than 1 point or 32 ticks above\nthe previous reactionary low.
• Reactionary low: A reactionary low is a local minimum\nprice, which is more than 32 ticks below the previous\nreactionary high."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-513-517-reversal-formations-predictive-power-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-513-517-reversal-formations-predictive-power-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-513-517-reversal-formations-predictive-power-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c11-085patt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:11 (518-521): Combining Patterns with Indicators by William Q. Smith"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Combining a technical indicator with another technical method can be the start of a viable trading system. Here's how to combine a technical indicator with a chart pattern to form one.
Pattern recognition and trend-following\ncan be combined to form a\nuseful trading system. The particular\npattern being reviewed is\nthe triangle chart pattern, while\nthe trend indicator is the 20-day\nexponential moving average\n(EMA). Both techniques can be\nused as a basis for an entry rule for\ntrading opportunities. For an exit\nrule, we will rely on a trailing stop\nbased on the parabolic indicator.\nWith that in mind, let’s take a look at each of the methods\nindividually and then determine how to use the techniques together.
\nTRIANGLES
The symmetrical triangle consists of two converging\ntrendlines, with the upper or resistance line falling and the\nlower or support line rising. The point of intersection at the\nright where the two trendlines meet is referred to as the apex.\nThe triangle is called symmetrical when the angle of both\ntrendlines with reference to the apex is approximately equal.\nThe minimum requirement for a triangle is four reversal\npoints. It takes at least two points to draw a trendline, and in\norder to draw two converging trendlines, each line must be\ntouched at least twice by the price action."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-518-521-combining-patterns-with-indicators-by-william-q-smith-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-518-521-combining-patterns-with-indicators-by-william-q-smith-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-518-521-combining-patterns-with-indicators-by-william-q-smith-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c11-086seas-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:11 (522-525): Seasonal Stock Index Trades by James Greenwood"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here are different seasonal strategies for trading the Value Line Index compared with the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the Standard and Poor's 500.
Most stock market\ntraders are familiar\nwith the January\neffect, which\nis the tendency for\nsmaller issues to\noutperform blue\nchips at the turn of\nthe year. But January\nis certainly not\nthe only time the\nstock market exhibits\nseasonal tendencies with the potential\nto be exploited in trading strategies.\nIn fact, with the January effect\napparently fading in recent years as it\nbecomes better known, this may be a\nparticularly good time to explore other\nseasonal trading opportunities.\nOne of the simplest ways to exploit\nseasonal market tendencies is through\ntrades in stock index futures contracts.\nUsing futures, a trader can in a single\ntransaction buy or sell an index representing\na large basket of stocks.
With the introduction in recent years\nof a number of new futures contracts\non different indices and in different\nsizes, the trading possibilities are\ngreater than before. To research strategies,\nhowever, only three product lines\nhave a history extensive enough to\ndraw upon for long-term analysis — contracts based on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, the New\nYork Stock Exchange (NYSE) Composite Index, and the\nValue Line. These three indices are each unique in market\nrepresentation and thus present unique seasonal spread trad-ing\nopportunities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-522-525-seasonal-stock-index-trades-by-james-greenwood-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-522-525-seasonal-stock-index-trades-by-james-greenwood-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-522-525-seasonal-stock-index-trades-by-james-greenwood-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c11-087mid-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:11 (526-528): Midlife Trading by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Perhaps you've reached a point of success in your trading when suddenly you lose interest. Why?
“Nothing’s wrong. I’m doing fine.\nReally.” Jon responded to my\nquestions in such a way that his\nanswers were encouraging —\nbut if everything was fine, why\nwas he calling me with such\nurgency? On paper, everything\nwas fine. He had come a long\nway from his early days as a\nyoung and wild-eyed trader. He and his family lived in a\nbeautiful home in the Chicago suburbs, his children were\npreparing to go off to college, he had a solid marriage, and he had plenty of money in the bank.
Who could have a problem with that scenario? Jon did.
At 49, Jon had fought the trading wars and won. He had\nonce risked his entire capital base, including his first house,\nhis car, and money he had borrowed on a single trade that had,\nluckily, gone his way. “I wouldn’t dream of doing anything\nthat stupid anymore,” he told me, somewhat wistfully.
“Then why are you here?” I asked. “Do you want to reach\nthe next level of your trading? Have you reached your ceiling\nand want to break through it? Are you beginning to break your\nrules? Have you suddenly lost energy? Are you suffering\nfrom stress or burnout?” I went through the standard list of\nproblems, but Jon kept shaking his head.
“I guess I’m just hitting a midlife crisis,” he told me.\n“Nothing’s wrong, and that’s the trouble. I have nothing to\nworry about. I need to know that there is something else.” Jon\nlooked as though he had come to the end of his trading career."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-526-528-midlife-trading-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-526-528-midlife-trading-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-526-528-midlife-trading-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c11-088int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:11 (529-536): Be Rich or Be Right? CTCR's Courtney Smith by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trader Courtney Smith has added publisher and editor of Commodity Traders Consumer Report to his long list of accomplishments. S&C spoke with him on why traders lose and how to change that.
\nSo when did you start in the business?
I started trading in the\nearly 1970s, around the time\nthat the International Monetary Market\nstarted up on the Chicago Mercantile\nExchange (CME). In fact, some of my\nearly trades involved making a market\nin currency spreads. I was one of the\nfew people looking at the carrying\ncharges in the currencies, and I made a\nmarket from off the floor. It was a bit\ntough because back then, commissions\nwere around $60 on my spread transactions.
I’m sure your broker didn’t mind. What\ndid you do after that?
I primarily traded my own account.\nAround the mid-1970s, I formed a\nmoney management company with Jack\nGrushcow. It was called Grushcow and\nSmith, and we managed futures money.\nWe did that for several years from\nVancouver, British Columbia. Then in\n1980, we split up and I moved back to\nthe United States.
Is that when you went to work for\nPaine Webber?
Yes. I was director of futures research\nat Paine Webber. Later, I went to\nwork on Wall Street for a boutique firm. During 1987, I was the head of the\nderivatives operation at Banque Paribas,\nthe French bank. I did that for two years\nand then I was treasurer of the Swiss\nbank BSI, until it was taken over by\nSwiss Bank Corp. In 1990, I set up my\nown company, Pinnacle Capital Management,\nwhich I operated until just\nvery recently, when I joined Orbitex\nManagement, which is a mutual fund\nand hedge fund company. While I was\nrunning Pinnacle in 1993, I was also\nchief executive officer of futures broker Quantum Financial\nServices, which was\nlater taken over by\nING Bank."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-529-536-be-rich-or-be-right-ctcr-s-courtney-smith-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-529-536-be-rich-or-be-right-ctcr-s-courtney-smith-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-529-536-be-rich-or-be-right-ctcr-s-courtney-smith-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c11-089raff-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:11 (537-542): Enhancing the Raff Regression Channel by Robert B. McKinnon"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A market follows its primary trend in a zigzag form. The trend direction is easy to see; the real challenge lies in identifying the minor trends.
Price channels are a technique\nused to discover the outer\nboundaries of the market’s action\nconcerning a trend. One\nsimple method is to draw a\ntrendline along the lows and a\nparallel line along the highs\nand project both lines forward.\nA more scientific method is\nthe regression channel, which\nwas introduced by Gilbert Raff\nin the October 1991 STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES. The regression channel defines the primary\ntrend by using a linear regression line with a lookback period\nselected by the user. Next, parallel channel lines are plotted\nabove and below the extreme price excursion, thus defining\nthe outer parallel channel lines. According to Raff, this\ntechnique offers a good deal of information regarding the\ntechnical picture.
PREDICTIVE ACTION
In his book, Trading The Regression Channel, Gilbert Raff\nstates that if we have drawn our channel correctly,
… [W]e’ll see a remarkable process unfolding. The Regression Channel\nTop will be the precise point at which the high days in a trend hit\nresistance and turn down, and the low days will find support at the\nRegression Channel Bottom and turn up. Finally, a day will arrive when\nprice exceeds the Regression Channel Range and the trend is over.
Later, he states:
The most powerful single requirement of a Regression Channel is that it exhibits predictive action. This means that it encompasses turns in the market that have already occurred and that it continues to do so in the future.
Clearly, Raff believes that the most important trait of the\nregression channel is that it can predict future price movement. Based on personal experience, the resistance, support\nand attraction characteristics of a properly drawn channel can\nprovide strong price movement clues that can help you decide\nwhat to do in your trading. However, it is crucial to develop\nthe ability to correctly place regression channels so they\nproperly define the market consensus and provide the neces-sary\npredictive action."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-537-542-enhancing-the-raff-regression-channel-by-robert-b-mckinnon-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-537-542-enhancing-the-raff-regression-channel-by-robert-b-mckinnon-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-11-537-542-enhancing-the-raff-regression-channel-by-robert-b-mckinnon-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c12-091yen-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:12 (547-558): The Yen, Recursed by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Combine the exponential moving average with a trend estimate to identify changes in the direction of the market.
The Japanese yen (JY) is a major\ncurrency traded worldwide by\ncorporations, institutions, banks,\ncommodity funds and futures\ntraders. The yen is traded 24\nhours a day and most of the\nworld’s largest banks make a\ntwo-sided market in the yen and\nits associated derivatives. Small\ntraders, however, are constrained to trade the yen\nfutures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).\nThe JY futures are traded from 7:20 am to 2 pm on the\nCME and from 2:30 pm to 7:05 am overnight Monday\nthrough Thursday, and 5:30 pm overnight to 7:05 am\nSundays and holidays on the CME Globex system.\nWhile the CME yen futures trading volume is small\ncompared with total worldwide bank and institutional\ntrading volume, arbitrage keeps the futures\nprices in line with the bigger markets.
DATA DISCUSSION
The JY futures contract on the CME trades in the\nquarterly cycles of March, June, September, and\nDecember. The current active yen futures contract is\nthe JY December 1998. This is the CME futures\ncontract that expires on the second business day\nbefore the third Wednesday of December 1998. The\nJY March 1999 will become the active contract one\nweek before the December 1998 expiration day.
The yen is the currency of Japan. Each JY futures\ncontract is worth the dollar value of 12,500,000 yen.\nOn September 4, 1998, The Wall Street Journal\nreported that the JY December 1998 futures contract\nclosed at 0.7584 dollars per 100 JY, making one JY\ncontract worth $94,800 = (12,500,000)(0.7584/100).\nThe JY future trades in units of $0.000001 per yen,\nand thus, a move of one tick of $0.000001 is worth\n$12.50 per contract ($0.000001 $/JY multiplied by\n12,500,000 = $12.50).
Yen futures started trading on 1975. However, for\nthe purposes of this article, we will limit our study to\nthe price history from January 1, 1988, to today, using\na JY futures continuous contract. Since JY futures\ncontracts expire each quarter, a continuous contract is\nconstructed by switching to the active contract on\nrollover day and back-adjusting the difference in prices\nbetween the new contract and the old, thus creating a\nsmooth continuous contract."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-547-558-the-yen-recursed-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-547-558-the-yen-recursed-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-547-558-the-yen-recursed-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c12-092risk-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:12 (559-562): Measuring Risk by Dick Stoken"",""caption-linebreaks"":""There are two common ways to measure performance: the standard deviation of returns and the Sharpe ratio. Here's a third way.
How do we measure risk? In the\nfinancial industry, the generally\naccepted method is the standard\ndeviation of returns. A low standard\ndeviation indicates that\nexpected returns vary little from\naverage returns (suggesting less\nrisk), while a high standard deviation\nsuggests that expected\nreturns vary greatly from average returns (implying more\nrisk). The assumption is that stable past returns are less risky,\nyet many practitioners are uneasy with this concept.
FACTORING IN LOSSES
Let’s examine a risk measure that factors in the actual losses\nexperienced by asset managers. Say that portfolio manager\nDick Smith experienced two negative years of -2.7% and\n-7.9%, a combined loss totaling -10.6% over a 25-year\nperiod. By dividing this total loss by the number of years in\nour observation (25), we derive an average loss of -0.42% per\nyear. This is the average loss that an investor would have\nexperienced had he bought at the beginning of a negative\nperiod, sold at the end of that span, and stayed on the sidelines\nin the interim.
Let us also suppose that during that same 25-year period,\nthe Standard & Poor’s 500 was down a total of five years for\na combined loss of -56.7%, averaging -2.27% a year. When\nviewed from this perspective, Smith’s portfolio was clearly\nless risky than the S&P 500."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-559-562-measuring-risk-by-dick-stoken-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-559-562-measuring-risk-by-dick-stoken-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-559-562-measuring-risk-by-dick-stoken-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c12-093opt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:12 (563-567): Using Normal Distribution For Writing Options by Mark Vakkur, MD"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How can you go about selecting the best strike price for writing an option?
Perhaps no branch of knowledge\nhas been as abused or misunderstood\nas statistics. Yet, without\nsome grounding in basic\nstatistical concepts, our ability\nto trade profitably is limited.\nTrading does not require a doctorate\nin mathematics, but mastering\nsome basic fundamentals\nshould help stack the odds\nin our favor. This is particularly\nhelpful in developing an options trading strategy.
Many trading software packages automatically generate\nstatistics on any tradable or indicator; often included are\nmean, median, and standard deviation. Although most people\nunderstand that a standard deviation is a measure of how\nvolatile an asset is, beyond that, their understanding is fuzzy. Yet a wealth of information is buried in that number.
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
To understand the standard deviation, you must first have\nsome grasp of what the normal distribution is. Although\nentire academic careers have been devoted to arguing whether\nthe market is random, if you were to graph the percentage\nchange in the stock market over any period and then graph the\nfrequency of each percentage change by interval as a histo-gram,\nyou would get a bell curve. This bell curve conforms\nclosely to what one would predict mathematically if the\nmarket were a random process with a slight upward bias.
For example, if you were to measure the four-week percentage\nchange in the Standard & Poor’s 100 index (OEX) for\nall rolling four-week periods (close of the last trading day of\nthe week through the close of the last trading day of the next\nweek) from October 1976 through December 1995, you\nwould get a distribution with a mean of 0.7% and a standard\ndeviation of 3.9%."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-563-567-using-normal-distribution-for-writing-options-by-mark-vakkur-md-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-563-567-using-normal-distribution-for-writing-options-by-mark-vakkur-md-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-563-567-using-normal-distribution-for-writing-options-by-mark-vakkur-md-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c12-094plot-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:12 (568-572): Plotting Trendlines by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Drawing trendlines may seem simple, but there is a right way and a wrong way to plotting trendlines.
With so many different indicators,\noscillators, and moving\naverages making up the science\nof technical analysis, it is easy\nto forget about the basics. One\nbasic rule of most trading strategies\nis to always trade with the\ntrend, and it follows that early\nrecognition of a change in trend\nwould be important. Therefore,\nit is imperative that we apply\ntechniques to determine what\nthe initial trend is so that we can\neither trade with it or be in a\nposition to recognize when it has, in fact, changed direction.\nDrawing a trendline can help us with both of these goals.
For our trendline to have credibility or predictive use, the\nmethod used to draw it must be consistent, reproducible, and\nobjective. Without a clearly defined method, it is too easy to choose prices through which to draw the trendline based on\nhow we want the line to look because of our preconceived\nideas of the market we are charting. Our investment decisions\nneed to be methodical, consistent, and based on facts, not\nemotions or wishful thinking. Once we have our definitions\nand our method, we will be able to walk through the proce-dure for constructing a trendline."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-568-572-plotting-trendlines-by-stuart-evens-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-568-572-plotting-trendlines-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-568-572-plotting-trendlines-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c12-095edge-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:12 (573-575): The Volatility Edge by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Designing a profitable trading system is key, but the way that profits and losses vary can have an impact on your long-term success.
In my previous article, I wrote\nthat, other things being equal, a\ntrading system with lower volatility\nwould triumph over a system\nwith higher volatility. To\nprove my point, I gave examples\n(and a small spreadsheet model)\nwherein a system with half the\nvolatility of its competitor came\nout ahead 70-80% of the time\nwhen given the same sequence\nof trading results.
Before we go any further, I should make a point of\ndefinition: Volatility is the variance of returns from the\ntrades. The greater the dispersion of trading results, the\ngreater the volatility. That said, the problem with a high-volatility system is that\nlosses put a trader further in the hole, requiring greater\npercentage returns in order to recover. The classic example is\nstarting with $100 and trying to get to $120, a 20% return. If,\ninstead, you first lose 20%, you must have a 50% return on\n$80 to reach your initial goal of $120 on the next trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-573-575-the-volatility-edge-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-573-575-the-volatility-edge-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-573-575-the-volatility-edge-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c12-096int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:12 (576-582): The Global Trend: Mark Boucher by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""When S&C first spoke to hedge fund manager Mark Boucher in 1996, he shared some of his techniques for analyzing the economy, picking stocks, and money management. See what he says this time.
Refresh our memories with\na bit of your history.
Sure. I started trading\nstocks and commodities\nwhen I was in high school. My father\ndied when I was nine, and he left me a\ntrust fund. The manager of my trust was\nlooking after my college fund. Unfortunately,\nthe stock market fell apart starting\nin 1973 and the bank managing my\ntrust stayed 100% invested during the\nbear market. My account lost about 90%\nof its value.
You told me that last time, and it still\nhurts to hear it.
Me, too! I realized that I was going to\nhave to find a way to make the money\nthat was left go a long way. So I started\ntrading the commodity markets in the\nlate 1970s.
You were hoping to, in a sense, leverage\nyourself?
I wanted to make as much money as I\ncould. Fortunately or not, I plunged into\ntrading commodities. If you recall, during\n1978 and 1979, the commodity markets\nshot up. I made quite a bit of money.
Sounds good.
In the next few years, though, I gave\nabout half of it back before I realized\nthat I had just been lucky in that period.\nI realized that I had a lot to learn if I\nwanted to create consistent performance.\nIt became clear to me that the bull market\nwas the genius, not me."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-576-582-the-global-trend-mark-boucher-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-576-582-the-global-trend-mark-boucher-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-576-582-the-global-trend-mark-boucher-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c12-097trnd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:12 (583-587): Trends And Moving Averages by Robert Nikifork"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How do you choose which length and type of moving average to use for chart analysis? Take a look.
One commonly used technical\nindicator is the moving average\n(MA), which is plotted as a line\nconnecting the average of closing\nprices over a lookback period.\nMoving averages may be\nused as trend indicators and to\nidentify support and resistance\nlevels and breakouts. The major\ncomplaint concerning moving\naverages is that they lag\nchanges in the trend and thus\nlead to late signals.
Because of that flaw and their widespread use, many\narticles have been written about moving averages. In most of\nthese articles, the writers discuss exotic forms of moving\naverages that they feel are superior to the more common forms\nbecause they reduce the lag or follow the trend closer. Some\ncommon suggestions are methods to add an exponential factor\nto the moving averages, weighting recent closing prices more\nheavily, and using more than one moving average.
For mechanical trading systems, the length and type of\nmoving average chosen may be significant if it is backtested\nand proved that, for example, a break above an x-length MA\nhas generated larger profits and smaller drawdowns than\nother lengths; in such an instance, it may make sense to\nchoose one moving average length and type. But many\ntraders do not trade systems based on moving averages, while\nthere are others who use them only as guidelines in making\ndecisions about when to buy and sell. In such a case, how\nshould a trader choose a moving average length?
With respect to simple MAs, many lengths are popular\namong traders, including but not limited to 10, 20, 21, 30, 50,\nand 200 days. But why would these be any better than, for\nexample, 16, 24, 77, or 136? The obvious answer is that we\nprefer round numbers, but is there any reason why a round\nnumber would offer a trader more insightful information than\nany randomly chosen number?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-583-587-trends-and-moving-averages-by-robert-nikifork-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-583-587-trends-and-moving-averages-by-robert-nikifork-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-583-587-trends-and-moving-averages-by-robert-nikifork-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c12-098macd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:12 (588-593): The MACD Profit Alert by Barbara Star, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is a momentum indicator, and here, it's combined with pattern recognition to help you identify exit points for your system.
It takes more than a good entry\nstrategy to trade profitably.\nMany traders have experienced\nthe exhilaration of being in a\nwinning trade. Some of those\nsame traders have also known\nthe disappointment of watch-ing\ntheir profit turn into a loss\nwhen prices change. Knowing\nwhen to take profits is part of\ngood money management. The moving average convergence/\ndivergence (MACD) profit alert presented here is a\npattern that helps traders make profit-taking exit decisions in\nboth the stock and commodity markets.
THE VERSATILE MACD
Basically, the MACD is a momentum indicator that fluctuates\nabove and below a zero line. Its developer, Gerald Appel,\npresented it as a trading method composed of two components.\nThe first is a solid line that represents the difference\nbetween two exponentially smoothed moving averages, often\nreferred to as the MACD line. The second component, the\nsignal or trigger line, is a dotted line that is an exponentially\nsmoothed moving average value of the solid line. (See\nsidebar “The MACD.”) The MACD trading method consists of\nbuying when the solid line crosses above its signal line and\neither exiting and/or short selling when the solid line crosses below its signal line.
The original MACD method continues to be a favorite\namong traders, useful in ways beyond the initial technique.\nOne alternative use is as a gauge of trend when both the solid and dotted lines remain above the zero line during uptrends or below the zero line during downtrends. Another is to identify divergences between the indicator and price prior to changes in trends.
I have found yet another use for the MACD, that of a profit-taking\nalert and exit function based on a pattern made by the\nrelationship between the solid and dotted lines."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-588-593-the-macd-profit-alert-by-barbara-star-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-588-593-the-macd-profit-alert-by-barbara-star-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-12-588-593-the-macd-profit-alert-by-barbara-star-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-099qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (595): Quick Scan: The Art of Short Selling"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Art of Short Selling (Kathryn F. Staley)
Longtime investors know that the news\nmedia has a tendency to profile money\nmanagers with the benefit of hindsight.\nWhen technology stocks are flying, for\nexample, the technology mutual fund\nportfolio managers are the popular interviews.\nIf a sharp selloff breaks the\nmarket, then the hedge fund managers\nare the ones to pay attention to. The fact\nis, the market goes through phases where\nthe money and the positions move toward\nopportunities as they present themselves.\nWhich style will be rewarded very difficult to forecast; while the savvy\ninvestors focus their energies in working\ntheir favorite strategies as the condition\nof the market warrant, they also\nkeep abreast of other methods, as doing\nso can offer insight into how other groups\nare investing. That said, The Art of Short\nSelling offers a thoughtful look into\nvirtually every aspect of this investment\napproach.
by Thom Hartle, Editor\nWith research assistance from\nStaff Writer Bruce Faber"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-595-quick-scan-the-art-of-short-selling-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-595-quick-scan-the-art-of-short-selling-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-595-quick-scan-the-art-of-short-selling-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-100qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (596): Quick Scan: Sharpen Your Trading Skills video"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sharpen Your Trading Skills video, A One Day Seminar with John Bollinger (Bollinger Capital Management).
Money manager and author John\nBollinger is probably best known for\nhis development and application of the\nvolatility bands bearing his name. The\nBollinger bands indicator is found in\nmost technical analysis packages available\ntoday. Moreover, Bollinger bands\nare often the subject of articles, chapters\nin books on technical analysis, and\na popular topic at seminars. Of course,\nrarely will you find the same degree of\ninsight offered by other users compared\nwith that offered by the originator himself.\nTherein lies the value of the Sharpen\nYour Trading Skills videotapes.
This videotape presentation captures\na one-day seminar given by Bollinger.\nThrough the tapes and a manual containing\nhard copies of the overhead\ngraphics used in the presentation,\nBollinger walks you through a collection\nof his favorite indicators. —Thom Hartle, Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-596-quick-scan-sharpen-your-trading-skills-video-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-596-quick-scan-sharpen-your-trading-skills-video-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-596-quick-scan-sharpen-your-trading-skills-video-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-101qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (596-597): Quick Scan: The Essex Option Trading Seminar video"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Essex Option Trading Seminar video (Essex Trading Company, Ltd.)
Not only is Essex Trading a software\ndeveloper, but the company also has a\ndeveloping interest in educating traders.\nEver since director of research Jay\nKaeppel published the Pro-Vest Option\nTrading Method, Essex Trading has\nbeen noted for offering practical trading\nguidelines of substance.\nThat was the book; this is the seminar.\nWhere the Pro-Vest approach was\nprobabilistically oriented (the “Pro” part\nof Pro-Vest stems from probabilistic),\nthe seminar, given in April 1997, tacks\non models for trading momentum, relative\nstrength and volatility on stock\nindices, particularly the OEX. These\ntrading systems come with some aggressive\nadd-on trading rules (for example,\nif the trade goes against your\ndirection for up to four days, add up to\nthree more positions in the same direction) and a refinement of the exit rules. —John Sweeney, Technical Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-596-597-quick-scan-the-essex-option-trading-seminar-video-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-596-597-quick-scan-the-essex-option-trading-seminar-video-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-596-597-quick-scan-the-essex-option-trading-seminar-video-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-102qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (597): Quick Scan: Option Advisor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Advisor, Wealth-Building Techniques Using Equity & Index Options (John Wiley & Sons)
Trading options and teaching others how\nto trade options has been Bernie\nSchaeffer’s career for the past 24 years.\nSchaeffer, who is co-founder of the Investment\nResearch Institute and senior\neditor of The Option Advisor newsletter,\nhas for the past 10 years been highly regarded for his market timing abilities.\nThe Option Advisor is the essence of\nwhat he has learned in the option trading\nprofession. —STOCKS & COMMODITIES"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-597-quick-scan-option-advisor-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-597-quick-scan-option-advisor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-597-quick-scan-option-advisor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-103qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (597-598): Quick Scan: Spec-Trader+ ver 1.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spec-Trader+ ver 1.0 (Cavlogix Corporation)
SpecTrader+ is a trading game from\nCavlogix Corp. that lets you simulate\ndaytrading, albeit in 30-minute intervals.
In the game, an intraday chart of a\nblue-chip stock and one of a 30-year\nbond are displayed onscreen at all times.\nPricing is also shown for a currency and\na penny stock, but charts are not shown\nfor those. You take these pieces of information\nas market proxies and trade them.\nVolatility, length of game and level of\nexpertise can be set by the player. —John Sweeney, Technical Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-597-598-quick-scan-spec-trader-ver-1-0-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-597-598-quick-scan-spec-trader-ver-1-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-597-598-quick-scan-spec-trader-ver-1-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-104qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (598-599): Quick Scan: John Murphy Explains Market Analysis, Volume 1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""John Murphy Explains Market Analysis, Volume 1: Visual Analysis (Murphy Morris Inc.)
Few people have been as much a part of\nthe education of technically oriented\ntraders and investors as John J. Murphy.\nMurphy has always strived to present\ntechnical analysis to the individual who\nwanted to gain a strong foundation in\nanalytical methods. His books — Technical\nAnalysis of the Futures Markets;\nIntermarket Analysis; and The Visual\nInvestor — are universally acclaimed\nas recommended reading for anyone who wants to study technical analysis.\nIn addition, Murphy was CNBC’s resident\ntechnical analyst for eight years.\nSince leaving CNBC, Murphy has teamed\nup with author and software developer\nGreg Morris to produce educational\nmultimedia and on-line products. —Thom Hartle, Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-598-599-quick-scan-john-murphy-explains-market-analysis-volume-1-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-598-599-quick-scan-john-murphy-explains-market-analysis-volume-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-598-599-quick-scan-john-murphy-explains-market-analysis-volume-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-105qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (599): Quick Scan: The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 1, Cycles And Patterns In The Indexes (MMA/Seek-It Publications)
The Ultimate Book on Stock Market\nTiming, Volume 1: Cycles and Patterns\nin the Indexes is the first volume in a\nseries of five. While it is the first of this\ncollection, it is the third book written by\nRaymond Merriman. Merriman’s first\nwork concerned geocosmic correlation\nto the cycles in the price of gold, while\nthe second was Merriman on Market\nCycles: The Basics.
Cycles and Patterns in the Indexes is\nabout the cycles in the stock market indices of the US and Japan. There is a\nthree-pronged approach to his presentation:\nFirst, there is an explanation of the\ncyclical nature of the market, including\ndescriptive terms for performing cycle\nanalysis. —STOCKS & COMMODITIES"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-599-quick-scan-the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-1-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-599-quick-scan-the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-599-quick-scan-the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-106qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (599-600): Quick Scan: Hit and Run Trading, The Short Term Traders' Bible"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Hit and Run Trading, The Short Term Traders' Bible (M. Gordon Publishing Group)
Hit and Run Trading presents 11 trading\nideas for day and short-term traders.\nFor each, you get the entry rules and\neight to 10 charts, with examples of the\ntrade. Exit rules aren’t specified but\nstops are, and they are extremely close.\nAuthor Jeff Cooper’s approach is to\nruthlessly eliminate losers, yet the promotional\nliterature and the book itself\ncite winning percentages of 60% or\nmore. Cooper states his techniques are\nthe culmination of 15 years of work. No\nbacktesting is included in the book, so\nthe results cannot be verified.
To find trading situations, Cooper\nrecommends screening a large universe\nof stocks to get 15 to 25 candidates to\nwatch each day. This requires software\nthat can screen average directional index\n(ADX), averages, price and new\nhighs/lows, since doing this manually\nwould be extremely time-consuming. —STOCKS & COMMODITIES"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-599-600-quick-scan-hit-and-run-trading-the-short-term-traders-bible-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-599-600-quick-scan-hit-and-run-trading-the-short-term-traders-bible-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-599-600-quick-scan-hit-and-run-trading-the-short-term-traders-bible-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-107qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (600-601): Quick Scan: Market Center Platinum Edition"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Center Platinum Edition (Data Broadcasting Corporation)
Does free sound good to you? BMI subscribers\ncan exploit the concept by using\ntheir feed with BMI’s Market Center\nPlatinum Edition (MCPE) software.\nThrown in as an addition to the feed,\nMCPE is surprisingly effective real-time\ntrade support software.\nIn Market Center Platinum Edition,\nyou get:
• Quote screens
• Charting
• Snap quotes, and
• Portfolio monitoring.
—John Sweeney, Technical Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-600-601-quick-scan-market-center-platinum-edition-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-600-601-quick-scan-market-center-platinum-edition-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-600-601-quick-scan-market-center-platinum-edition-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-108qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (601-602): Quick Scan: Martin Pring's Introduction to Technical Analysis on CD-ROM"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Martin Pring's Introduction to Technical Analysis on CD-ROM (International Institute of Economic Research)
Martin Pring, long interested in educating\ninvestors on the fundamentals of technical analysis, realized several years\nback he could take advantage of the\nenormous capacity of the modern compact\ndisc and put nearly everything he\nwanted to say on one. It wasn’t long\nbefore he had CD-ROM products on the\nshelves, one after another, the most recent\none on his KST indicator, which we\nreviewed last year.
Pring, director and founder of International\nInstitute of Economic Research\n(IIER), is a true technician. He is conversant\nwith nearly every technique, and he\nisn’t shy about discussing charts, an\naspect of market analysis that has often\nbeen labeled “witchcraft” by those not\ninitiated. —John Sweeney, Technical Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-601-602-quick-scan-martin-pring-s-introduction-to-technical-analysis-on-cd-rom-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-601-602-quick-scan-martin-pring-s-introduction-to-technical-analysis-on-cd-rom-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-601-602-quick-scan-martin-pring-s-introduction-to-technical-analysis-on-cd-rom-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-109qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (602-603): Quick Scan: A W.D. Gann Treasure Discovered"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A W.D. Gann Treasure Discovered, Simple Trading Plans for Stocks & Commodities (Geometric Traders Institute, Inc.)
I first heard Robert Krausz speak when\nhe was the luncheon guest speaker for\nthe Dow Jones Telerate (TAG XVI) conference\nback in 1994. I remember how\nemphatic he was as he stressed that successful\ntraders have mechanical trading\nplans, and that to become a profitable\ntrader, you had to develop fixed trading\nrules and then do what he referred to as a\nbacktrack over your market of choice.\nWith both hands gripping the podium, as\nif he were trying to shake some sense into\nthe audience, Krausz spelled out that if\nyou followed his advice, then two very\nimportant things should happen. First,\nyou would be able to accurately gauge\nthe method’s performance, and second,\nif you did this work by hand, you would be\nmentally prepared for implementing the\nplan under real-time trading conditions. --Thom Hartle is Editor of STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES magazine."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-602-603-quick-scan-a-w-d-gann-treasure-discovered-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-602-603-quick-scan-a-w-d-gann-treasure-discovered-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-602-603-quick-scan-a-w-d-gann-treasure-discovered-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-110qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (603-604): Quick Scan: Indigo Blue Chip Investment Strategies"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Indigo Blue Chip Investment Strategies (MicroStar Research & Trading, Inc.)
MicroStar has released another in their\nseries of trading models, this one designed\nto trade stocks and/or mutual\nfunds. The program comes as the logic\nplus a library of trading models whose\ninnards, though hidden, can be historically\ntested using the built-in system\ntester. The methods are only briefly\ndiscussed in the program manual; purchasers\ncan obtain the actual trading\nlogic upon signing a nondisclosure\nagreement with MicroStar.
Installation and data service have been\nautomated. Data comes with the program\n(in the old MetaStock format) and\nthe program will examine your datafiles\nand determine for itself what to update.\nA data maintenance module also automatically\nscans the data for possible\nerrors. The program runs on daily data,\nso the update is normally done nightly. —John Sweeney, Technical Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-603-604-quick-scan-indigo-blue-chip-investment-strategies-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-603-604-quick-scan-indigo-blue-chip-investment-strategies-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-603-604-quick-scan-indigo-blue-chip-investment-strategies-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-111qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (604): Quick Scan: The Four Biggest Mistakes In Option Trading"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Four Biggest Mistakes In Option Trading (Traders' Library)
In The Four Biggest Mistakes In Option\nTrading, STOCKS & COMMODITIES contributor\nJay Kaeppel does an excellent\njob of discussing the biggest pitfalls in option trading that market participants\ncan run into. He does so by dividing the\ndiscussion into four segments, one for\neach mistake. He further divides each\nsection by asking and answering three\ncritical questions about each mistake.\nThose questions are:
1 Why do traders make this mistake?
2 Why does this mistake cause losses\nin the long run?
3 How can options traders avoid said\nmistake?
—Stuart Evens, Staff Writer"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-604-quick-scan-the-four-biggest-mistakes-in-option-trading-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-604-quick-scan-the-four-biggest-mistakes-in-option-trading-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-604-quick-scan-the-four-biggest-mistakes-in-option-trading-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-112qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (605): Quick Scan: PowerAnalyzer from EZTrade"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PowerAnalyzer from EZTrade (INO Global Markets)
PowerAnalyzer is an options analysis\nfacility delivered over the Internet. It\nsupplies all the pricing for the underly and its options, so you don’t\nneed to buy and maintain a database\nyourself. The information provided\nincludes the volatilities, the greeks,\nthe graphs and the history, all presented\nwith a Java applet that is downloaded\nto your computer when you\nsign on.
PowerAnalyzer is a good option\nfor those who can rely on Internet\naccess and who are looking for a\nless expensive alternative to buying\nanalysis software and subscribing\nto a data service. —John Sweeney, Technical Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-605-quick-scan-poweranalyzer-from-eztrade-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-605-quick-scan-poweranalyzer-from-eztrade-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-605-quick-scan-poweranalyzer-from-eztrade-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c13-113qs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:13 (606): Quick Scan: Trading in the Zone"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading in the Zone, How To Create A State Of Mind That Eliminates The Fear, Stress, And Anxiety From Your Trading (Trading Behavior Dynamics, Inc.)
I would think that anyone with so much\nas an ounce of entrepreneurial spirit\nwould look at the career of the professional\ntrader with keen interest. It’s easy\nto picture yourself sitting in front of a\nscreen, trading away, racking up steady\nprofits. You’d see yourself as being\nyour own profit center with complete\ncontrol over your destiny. Unfortunately,\nthat scenario rarely works out so\nwell. The majority of individuals trading\nfutures lose most of their capital\nwithin their first year, then give up on\ntrading. Their reasons for doing so range\nfrom believing there’s some secret indicator\nthey don’t know about all the way\nto believing it’s their broker’s fault that\ntheir trades failed. Those who do hang\nin there acquire extensive market and\ntrading knowledge, yet they struggle to\nbe consistently profitable. —Thom Hartle, Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-606-quick-scan-trading-in-the-zone-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-606-quick-scan-trading-in-the-zone-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-13-606-quick-scan-trading-in-the-zone-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-114pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (609-610): Product Review: Wall Street Investor, ver 4.0.8 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wall Street Investor, Version 4.0.8 (Comstar Concepts Inc.). Software for investment tracking and analysis. by John Sweeney
Here at STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nwe receive\nquestions all the time\nfrom readers about which\nproducts to buy, including\nquestions about which portfolio\nmanagement packages to use. That vendors\nin the software industry have been\noverly focused on technical indicators\nis evident in the dearth of integrated\nsoftware that handles a variety of accounts,\naccurately tracks trades, and\ngenerates tax reports. If a portfolio management\nproduct could also perform the\ngarden-variety technical analysis that\nmost traders require, you’d have a winning\ncombination, especially if it could\nbe had for just $100 or so.
Comstar offers all that in Wall Street\nInvestor, and offers it for both the Macintosh and Windows platforms.\nNor is it barebones on the analytical\nside. Wall Street Investor offers 21\nstudies, point and figure charts, and\nonscreen drawing."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-609-610-product-review-wall-street-investor-ver-4-0-8-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-609-610-product-review-wall-street-investor-ver-4-0-8-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-609-610-product-review-wall-street-investor-ver-4-0-8-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-115pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (611-612): Product Review: Enhancing Portfolio Value with Covered Call Options by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Enhancing Portfolio Value with Covered Call Options (Investment Enhancing Systems, Inc.). Software and manual on writing covered calls. by John Sweeney
Most traders realize to\nsome degree that writing\noptions against their\nportfolio stocks will give\nthem more money if the\nstock falls, remains the same or rises\njust a little. If traders wrote options\nagainst their stocks all the time, their\nportfolios should have less\nvolatility than those composed\nsolely of stocks, because\nthe extra income\ntends to stabilize returns.\nThe question is: How can\nwe implement this strategy\nconsistently?
Investment Enhancing\nSystems provides pathway with a package\ncalled Enhancing Portfolio\nValue with Covered\nCall Options (EPV)..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-611-612-product-review-enhancing-portfolio-value-with-covered-call-options-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-611-612-product-review-enhancing-portfolio-value-with-covered-call-options-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-611-612-product-review-enhancing-portfolio-value-with-covered-call-options-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-116pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (612-615): Product Review: MetaStock ver 6.5 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MetaStock, Version 6.5 (Equis International). End-of-day charting and technical analysis software; CD-ROM with five years of data for stocks, mutual funds, futures, and indices included. by John Sweeney
Nowadays, analytical programs\nrun so smoothly\ncompared with the early\ndays— unless you’re pushing\nthe envelope — that\nmost users are almost blasé about super\ncapabilities.\nTake the capabilities that MetaStock\n6.5 now offers. EQUIS International went\nout and tacked on 15 new indicators; six\nnew expert advisors, some with video\nand audio support; screening setups for\nfinding good trades (called Explorations);\nand channel drawing capabilities.\nThese are all terrific enhancements\nto what was already a very good program.\n(For a summary of basic MetaStock\nfeatures, see our review of\nMetaStock 6.0 in January 1997.) And\nyet, EQUIS modestly treats this as a half-point\nversion upgrade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-612-615-product-review-metastock-ver-6-5-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-612-615-product-review-metastock-ver-6-5-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-612-615-product-review-metastock-ver-6-5-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-117pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (615-616): Product Review: Jeronimo J2 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Jeronimo J2, Multihead Advanced Graphics Accelerator (Appian Graphics). Graphics accelerator display cards and HydraVision software to allow your PC to use two or more monitors. by John Sweeney
Modern software can not\nonly gobble and regurgitate\nnumbers, it can\nalso fill seeming acres\nof display space with\nbuttons, icons, window shades,\nscrollbars and other occasionally helpful\nitems. Sometimes, what’s left is just\ntrifle too much. What can a claustrophobic\ninvestor do?
Appian Graphics’ solution is to trick\nyour computer into running two, three\nor even four screens at the same time,\nspreading what you want to view over\nseveral monitors. The result is that\nquotes can be displayed on one screen,\ngraphics on another. Or perhaps, one\nmarket with all its data, quotes, graphics\nand derivatives are displayed on one\nscreen and another market on the other.
Naturally, an eye-flick from one\nscreen to another is faster than a\nmouse click and a redraw."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-615-616-product-review-jeronimo-j2-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-615-616-product-review-jeronimo-j2-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-615-616-product-review-jeronimo-j2-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-118pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (616-617): Product Review: Option Wizard with backtest by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Wizard with backtest, (Option Wizard, Inc.) Options calculator for Microsoft Excel spreadsheet software. by John Sweeney
How facile are you at using\nExcel? If you can handle\ncut-and-paste, then you can\nget Option Wizard, a great\nlittle options calculator, for\na comparatively low price. You just\nhave to be ready to handle the data input\nby exporting numbers from your database\nto ASCII, loading them into Excel,\ncopying the days you want and pasting\nthem into Option Wizard. Alternatively,\nyou can use historical volatilities for\nmost stocks and indices from the Web\n(provided by Lawrence G. McMillan at\nhttp://optionstrategist.com), and dispense\nwith the cut-and-paste regimen, if you\nprefer.
Next, you put in the strike price, the\nexpiration date, risk-free rate, implied\nvolatility, dividend schedule and the\nprice of the underlying stock or index.\nFrom there on, everything is virtually\ninstantaneous (Figure 1)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-616-617-product-review-option-wizard-with-backtest-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-616-617-product-review-option-wizard-with-backtest-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-616-617-product-review-option-wizard-with-backtest-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-119pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (618-620): Product Review: Channel Trend by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Channel Trend (Channel Trend Inc.). Stock-targeting service. by John Sweeney
Channel Trend is an advisory\nservice that’s been\naround since the early\n1980s and offers a unique\nblend of fundamental and\ntechnical insight into picking stocks to\nbuy and those to sell.
Originally, Channel Trend developer\nHarry Gish needed to find a way to pick\nstocks to unload (he had a contract to do\nsome portfolio pruning) with some assurance\nthey wouldn’t then soar to new\nheights. He wanted to combine trend\nand cyclic behavior into a single variable\nhe could use to compare and rank\nthe prospects of a large universe of\nstocks.
Technicians will immediately think\nof a gajillion ways to do this, but Channel\nTrend’s approach was innovative,\nneatly sidestepping typical problems\nwith solutions to this question. Channel\nTrend simply projects a weighted average\nprice based on past momentum and\ndraws upper and lower bounds based on\npast volatility. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-618-620-product-review-channel-trend-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-618-620-product-review-channel-trend-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-618-620-product-review-channel-trend-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-120pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (620-622): Product Review: Platt's Analytics Service by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Platt's Analytics Service Real-Time Information (Standard & Poor's Platt's). Page-based technical and fundamental indicator, commentary, and pricing for analysis of petroleum markets. Available on the internet. by John Sweeney
In 1923, Warren C. Platt started\npublishing prices for oil and its\nbyproducts welled from the\nfields of Oklahoma and Texas.\nThe information was vital to\nproducers and purchasers alike and served\nfor many years as the basic price discovery\nmechanism surrounding the oil fields.
Today, petroleum markets are large,\nvirtually public markets with full transparency\nand intimidating efficiency.\nPlatt’s Global Alert, Platt’s main petroleum\nmarket product, is still the\nindustry’s pricing benchmark, not only\nfor their reporting but also for the rigorous\nanalytics they publish.
With Platt’s Analytics Service, they’ve even gone a step further and\nnow include some forward commentary\nand direct quotes of traders’ forecasts,\nwhereas competitors tend to stick\nto reporting. Platt’s figures that even\ncompanies with their own technical staff\nwill buy analysis that reduces their leg-work\nand provides an unbiased second\nopinion on the market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-620-622-product-review-platt-s-analytics-service-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-620-622-product-review-platt-s-analytics-service-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-620-622-product-review-platt-s-analytics-service-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-121pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (622-623): Product Review: Option Tutor ver 2.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Tutor Version 2.0 (Financial Trading System). Computerized tutorial for options. by John Sweeney
An effective tutorial for options\ntrading can be a blessing,\nand Option Tutor 2.0\nhas the power to take you\nwhere you want to go (Figure\n1). With Option Tutor 2.0, you read\nand do at the same time. The physical\nmanual is really an outline that instructs\nyou to open the applications guide to\noptions and futures on your computer.\nThis tutorial steps you through the actual\nlessons. I put the tutorial on one\nside of my screen and the windows from\nOption Tutor on the other side of my\nscreen. I’d click back and forth between\nthe two to activate the window of my\ninterest as I worked along.
The applications guide is good stuff.\nIt includes a picture of nearly everything it discusses, so that you can immediately\nsee whether that which you’ve\ncreated in the working windows is correct.\nPlus, there’s a restart button to get\nyou back to the beginning at any time.\nThese features kept me on track and gave\nme the confidence to play around with\nprogram features (Figure 2)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-622-623-product-review-option-tutor-ver-2-0-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-622-623-product-review-option-tutor-ver-2-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-622-623-product-review-option-tutor-ver-2-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-122pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (624-626): Product Review: Expert Design Studio for AIQ TradingExpert by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Expert Design Studio for AIQ TradingExpert (AIQ Systems). Add-on module for AIQ's Trading Expert. Screens and backtests for screens of stock, futures or mutual funds. by John Sweeney
AIQ has long offered Trading-Expert,\none of the premier\nartificial intelligence stock-picking\nprograms, but has\nnever provided the capability\nto write one’s own indicators or\ntrading systems. Now they’ve taken a\nstep onto that path by providing an\nadd-on module, Expert Design Studio\n(EDS), that uses a set of built-in\nfunctions to create screening criteria\nand trading systems.
EDS comes as a $249 option to\nTradingExpert (currently offered at a\nspecial rate of $695), which is now at\nthe 4.1 version. You get EDS turned on\nby paying and registering the software\nby keycode over the phone once it’s installed. The process takes about\ntwo minutes.\nEDS’s emphasis is on screening\ntradables to identify those that are ready\nfor action. EDS also provides the capability\nfor trading system development and\nbacktesting. The emphasis on screening\nprobably comes from AIQ’s equity focus,\nthe company’s software having for years\nbeen famous for its ability to break down\nand analyze markets, sectors, groups and\nindividual stocks. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-624-626-product-review-expert-design-studio-for-aiq-tradingexpert-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-624-626-product-review-expert-design-studio-for-aiq-tradingexpert-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-624-626-product-review-expert-design-studio-for-aiq-tradingexpert-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-123pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (624-627): Product Review: ProTA, ver 2.11 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""ProTA, Version 2.11 (Beesoft). Apple Macintosh software for data download, technical analysis and portfolio management. by John Sweeney
At one time, many small shops\noffered technical analysis\npackages. Unfortunately,\nmany fell by the wayside or\nsettled into small niches\nserving a custom clientele. A few —\nOmega Research, Windows on Wall-Street,\nand Equis — realized the importance\nof marketing and grew to become\ngiants in the niche, generally daunting\nnew entrants into the field. Their courageous example did not go\nunnoticed, however, and inspired\nsome to do the same,\nand now new technical software\nis beginning to appear.\nOne such is ProTA, a program\nwith the added fillip of\nbeing designed to take advantage\nof the Apple Macintosh\noperating system’s fluidity and\nease of use as well as the latest\ncrop of fast Mac central processing\nunits (CPUs).
ProTA gives you full-color\ncharting (Figure 1)\nwith full Mac color selection\ncapabilities and a convenient “turning” toolbar that gives you\nquick access to all the available buttons.\nThat’s helpful because ProTA has many,\nmany buttons. Developer Jeffery Bizon\nis startlingly frank about his intention to\nprovide all the features found in DOS\nprograms in his Apple OS program."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-624-627-product-review-prota-ver-2-11-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-624-627-product-review-prota-ver-2-11-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-624-627-product-review-prota-ver-2-11-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-124pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (628-631): Product Review: DTN Chameleon by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""DTN Chameleon For Windows (Data Transmission Network). Real-time and delayed satellite datafeeds for financial services, energy, agriculture, weather. by John Sweeney
For years, getting the data\nto feed software was expensive.\nIn fact, many\nnovice traders entered\ninto active trading burdened\nby excessive overhead. One early\nsolution was DTN (Data Transmission\nNetwork) FM for agricultural traders\nand then DTN Wall Street (via satellite),\nwhich at $34.95 a month for delayed\ndata was great back in the 1980s. That\nyou can still get started with real-time\ntransmission of data for about $350 is a\ntestament to the growth in telecommunications\nand computer productivity as\nwell as DTN’s growth and management.
DTN started transmitting agricultural\ninformation to farmers, and it still has\ndeep roots in this niche. It added\nfinancials, because it already had expertise\nin futures from its agricultural background. When energy futures came\nalong, they and their relateds were added\nas well. Nowadays, DTN has all North\nAmerican equities and futures, US options,\nmutual funds and corporate and\nTreasury bonds.
However, the key feature that turned\nthousands of users into DTN fans was\nthe remarkably reasonable (well, cheap)\nentry. You could sign up with DTN and\nget the dish, the receiver and even a\nsimple black-and-white monitor for zero\ndollars upfront. Plus, the DTN tech staff\nwas genuinely helpful about setting the\nwhole thing up. Nowadays, it’s $298 to\nget started, which includes a color monitor,\nsatellite dish and receiver, data storage\nand all the cabling you need. A\ncomputer of your own is not required\nfor many of DTN’s services."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-628-631-product-review-dtn-chameleon-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-628-631-product-review-dtn-chameleon-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-628-631-product-review-dtn-chameleon-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-125pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (631-635): Product Review: Window on WallStreet Day Trader by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Window On WallStreet Day Trader (Window on WallStreet). Software for real-time data acquisition, screening, analysis and system testing. by John Sweeney
Software for daytraders has\nto work hard. It must accept\na huge stream of incoming\ndata; store it tick by tick;\nretrieve and graph it; monitor\nthe data for specific events; apply\nindicators and, hopefully, trading systems;\nkeep track of trades; and, if it’s\nreally good, allow the expression of the\ntrader’s ideas through some sort of formula\nlanguage.
Software of this power is exciting to\nuse. You can go from a tick chart to any\nother level of detail — weekly, 500\nticks, 10 minutes or the period of your\nchoice — in a click. Drawing, zooming,\nindicators, just about any level of conventional analysis is available immediately.\nPlus there’s always the alternating\njoy and agony of creating your own\nindicators and trading systems.
Window on WallStreet — all versions\n— has the unique facility of blending\ncompany financial information with technical\nanalysis in scanning for trading\ncandidates and signals. At this price point,\nit’s unique in this capability and the\nresult is highlighted in Window on\nWallStreet’s rational analysis technolgy\nexpert (RATE): finding good candidates\nwith fundamentals while discerning trading\nsignals with price/volume analytics."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-631-635-product-review-window-on-wallstreet-day-trader-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-631-635-product-review-window-on-wallstreet-day-trader-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-631-635-product-review-window-on-wallstreet-day-trader-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-126pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (635-636): Product Review: BOLT 3.01 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""BOLT 3.01 (The Bressert Group). On-line futures trade entry software. by John Sweeney
And now, for something fun,\norder up BOLT, which is\nbrokerage Bressert Group’s\nreal-time trading software.\nIt connects you directly to\ntheir order desk with a messaging feature\nI haven’t seen before on the Internet.\nThe result? Two-second order responses\nand, reportedly, depending on the pit, 10- to 20-second fills.
BOLT skips the usual route to automated\ntransactions (the trading order\nplacement systems, or TOPS), in which\nyour order has to queue up during busy\nperiods, be printed and walked into the\npit for filling, which can greatly delay\nthe instant fill order process. Instead,\nwith BOLT, Bressert Group can phone\nin directly to all major US exchanges\nwhence orders are flashed to the pit.\nYou’re still dependent on the give-up\nbroker, but both he/she and Bressert have\nevery incentive to give you the best service\nthey can. In case of disaster, you can\nstill call the order desk if your computer\nor Internet service provider (ISP) goes\ndown because even though the Internet\nis designed for redundancy, it is still not\nimmune to overload."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-635-636-product-review-bolt-3-01-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-635-636-product-review-bolt-3-01-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-635-636-product-review-bolt-3-01-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-127pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (637-638): Product Review: LIFFE Data ver 1.0 with LIFFEstyle Software by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LIFFE Data, Version 1.0 With LIFFEstyle Software (LIFFE Data Services). Ten years of tick data from LIFFE's interest rate futures and options contracts plus data management and analytical software. Exports to the following formats: Amber, ASCII, Aspen Graphics (S&P ComStock), CSI, Unfair Advantage, CSV, Excel 97, Index A, Market Eye Format 4, MESA96, MetaStock, TradeStation (via PRN). by John Sweeney
Overseas traders are quickly\ncatching up to the level of\nintensity and technical skill\nof US traders, so much so\nthat they’re now demand-ing\nthe kind of tick data delved into\npreviously only by US firms. The result?\nEurope’s premier financial exchange,\nthe London International Financial\nFutures Exchange (LIFFE), has\ntaken virtually all its records, cleansed\nthem in an unspecified way, and issued\nthe tick data on CD, Internet-updatable,\nas LIFFE Data.
The data is accompanied by LIFFE-style,\nan efficient extraction and analytical program from LIFFE Data Services.
This is heavyweight stuff. The program\ncan absorb up to two million\ntick records, depending on the RAM\nyou have available, and display them\nonscreen in nine different formats\n(Figure 1): all ticks; five-, 15-, 30-\nand 60-minute bars; daily or five-day.\nYou may also view the data for\nbid-asked prices (if you load it) and\ndaily volume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-637-638-product-review-liffe-data-ver-1-0-with-liffestyle-software-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-637-638-product-review-liffe-data-ver-1-0-with-liffestyle-software-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-637-638-product-review-liffe-data-ver-1-0-with-liffestyle-software-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-128pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (639-640): Product Review: WinMidas, ver 2.1 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""WinMidas, Version 2.1 (Stokes Fishburne Associates). Software employing a price/volume analytical technique for market top and bottom detection. by John Sweeney
The relationship between\nprice and volume can be\nvague. Occasionally, it\ngives startling clues (for\nexample, look at a chart\nof Microsoft with on-balance volume\nbetween February 1997 and December\n1997), but usually, the information is\nambiguous. While studying that problem\nin 1994, Paul Levine decided a\nfresh graphical approach to charting the\nrelationship would help clarify the relationship.\nHis work formed the basis of\nWinMidas software.
WinMidas’s approach is to modify a\nstandard chart of price versus time so it\nbecomes a chart plotting price against\ncumulative volume (Figure 1). As\npointed out at the very complete Website\nfor WinMidas, “This has the effect of\ngiving less visual weight to periods of\nrelative inactivity, since the lower cumulative\nvolume increase during such\nperiod compresses the daily points\ninto a smaller space.” That is, if cumulative volume doesn’t grow much, the\nnext price point is going to be very close\nto the previous price point. On the other\nhand, a high-volume day will move the\nnext point along smartly to the right."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-639-640-product-review-winmidas-ver-2-1-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-639-640-product-review-winmidas-ver-2-1-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-639-640-product-review-winmidas-ver-2-1-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-129pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (641-643): Product Review: ELWAVE 4.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Elwave 4.0 (Prognosis Software Development). Elliott wave analysis and projection software, end-of-day or real-time. by John Sweeney
The promise of Elliott wave\nprogramming has been\nthat the logic of R.N.\nElliott’s analysis would\nbecome objective by its\nencapsulation in software. While comparable\nprograms looking at the same\ndata still disagree somewhat, at least\nwithin any single program a degree of\nconsistency has been achieved. After\nthat, the focus changes to power, ease of\nuse and efficacy.
ELWAVEtakes advantageofthehorsepower\nof today’s computers and the\nconvenience of the Windows operating\nsystem, not to mention thorough programming by Arjan van Gog. It grabs\nhuge amounts of data, cuts it up into 10\n(up from the classic eight) levels of\nwave degree, expands or contracts your\nview of it, displays the rules of the\npattern you’re examining, graphs the\nwhole thing together with conventional\nindicators, and gives out trading alerts\nas the data comes in, whether it’s real-time\nor intraday.
All that and it’s easy to use."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-641-643-product-review-elwave-4-0-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-641-643-product-review-elwave-4-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-641-643-product-review-elwave-4-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-130pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (643-645): Product Review: Visual System Designer ver 3.001 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Visual System Designer, Version 3.001 (Digital Enterprises, Ltd.). Software to classify, find, run and chart patterns-based systems on real-time data. by John Sweeney
Quite often, the best trading\nideas come from the visual\nimpression left by a\nchart. Nearly everyone has\nthought, at one time or another,\nthat it would be great if the pattern\nof bars that one sees could be defined\nand tested to see if it truly did lead\nto predictable price action. Visual System\nDesigner (VSD) does just that and\nvisually, by clicking and dragging. In\naddition, VSD makes it possible to define\npatterns using indicators and studies,\na unique combination.
Once things have been defined — and it only takes a second to drag through\nsome bars you think could be predictive\n— the program will start to find matching\ninstances throughout the history\nprovided so you can inspect results. If\nyou wish, you can add trading rules to\nthe definition and instruct VSD to\nbacktest them."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-643-645-product-review-visual-system-designer-ver-3-001-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-643-645-product-review-visual-system-designer-ver-3-001-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-643-645-product-review-visual-system-designer-ver-3-001-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-131pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (646-649): Product Review: BioComp Profit by Howard B. Bandy, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""BioComp Profit (BioComp Systems Inc.). Neural network-based trading system development software. by Howard B. Bandy, Ph.D.
BioComp Profit is an exten-sion\nof BioComp Systems’\nNeuroGenetic Optimizer\n(NGO) neural network\nmodeling product. Profit is\ndesigned specifically to construct and\ntest trading models and trade financial\nmarkets. And it is very effective. In an\nNGO review that was published in the\nAugust 1997 STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nthe steps necessary to develop and use a\nmodel of a financial time series for\ninvesting or trading were discussed.\nBriefly, those steps are:
1 Decide what you want to predict.
2 Decide on the measurement of\ngoodness for your model.
3 Assume your model will be per-fect\nand evaluate its potential profitability.
4 Select the factors you want the\nmodel to use to make the prediction.
5 Collect the associated data.
6 Preprocess and transform the data.
7 Divide the data into training set\nand validation set.
8 Build the model.
9 Use the model."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-646-649-product-review-biocomp-profit-by-howard-b-bandy-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-646-649-product-review-biocomp-profit-by-howard-b-bandy-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-646-649-product-review-biocomp-profit-by-howard-b-bandy-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-132pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (650-652): Product Review: TechniFilter Plus, ver 8.1 for Windows 95.NT by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TechniFilter Plus, Version 8.1 For Windows 95/NT (RTR Software). Software to prepare filter reports, chart stocks and futures, and backtest trading strategies. by John Sweeney
Of all the newsletters that\ncross my desk, there are a\nfew that I seriously study,\nand one of them is RTR\nSoftware’s News Notes.\nThat this has gone on since 1986 or so\nindicates my opinion about a little-known\npackage of analytical software,\nTechniFilter, which is the principal topic\nof discussion in the newsletter.
RTR, a company started by three mathematicians,\nisn’t big on marketing, but it\nhas successfully created one of the most\npowerful tools you can use to develop\nand test your trading ideas. Plus, since\nthe last review, TechniFilter’s been fine-tuned\nfor Windows and now sports a\nmuch more convenient interface. Noted\nfor speed and economy of expression in\nthe past, it still requires just 8 MB of\nhard disk memory and, even burdened\nby Windows overhead, clips through its\ntasks quickly."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-650-652-product-review-technifilter-plus-ver-8-1-for-windows-95-nt-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-650-652-product-review-technifilter-plus-ver-8-1-for-windows-95-nt-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-650-652-product-review-technifilter-plus-ver-8-1-for-windows-95-nt-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-133pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (653-658): Product Review: CQG for Windows, version 2.414 by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CQG for Windows, Version 2.414 (CQG, Inc.). Real-time datafeed and technical analysis software system. by Thom Hartle
Since its inception nearly\n20 years ago, CQG has always\nrecognized that traders\nwant clean reliable\ndata and software that can\nfunction seamlessly as a tool to implement\ntheir particular trading style. In\nother words, traders want to trade, not\nmaintain a computer! And to do that,\nthey need stable efficient data delivery\nand sophisticated software. Neither issue\nis a concern for the trader using a\nCQG system.
Nor are my words those of someone\nwho’s just had a quick look at a product;\nCQG and I go back a few years. I had my\nown CQG TQ 20/20 for seven years\nbeginning in 1984 and ending in 1990\nwhile I was first a broker and then a\ntrader for a bank. I’ve been using the\nCQG for Windows system for the last\ntwo years, and I can say from first-hand\nexperience I never have problems. CQG\nis rock-solid reliable. CQG monitors data,\nauthenticates corrections and transmits corrections via the CQG Data\nNetwork. CQG effectively\ntakes the data and computer\nissues out of the loop and\nleaves you free to focus on the\nmarkets and executing your\ntrading plan."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-653-658-product-review-cqg-for-windows-version-2-414-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-653-658-product-review-cqg-for-windows-version-2-414-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-653-658-product-review-cqg-for-windows-version-2-414-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-134pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (658-660): Product Review: SMARTrader for Windows, version 2.5 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SmarTrader for Windows, Version 2.5 With QuickCharts (Stratagem Software International, Inc.). Charting and analysis program with spreadsheet facility. by John Sweeney
The programmers behind\nSmarTrader are some of\nthe longest-lived technical\nprogrammers in the\nbusiness. These are the\nsame ones who put together the original\nCompuTrac package and its real-time\nspreadsheet version, SNAP. (CompuTrac\nwas one of the first commercially available\ntechnical analysis programs.) Of\ncourse, the organization CompuTrac\nwas long ago sold to Dow Jones and\nthen to Bridge, and is not much more\nthan a memory now. However, the\nCompuTrac developmental team went\non to continue to build the software and\nadd new features. Now established as an\nInternet software developer, Stratagem\nSoftware continues to tweak CompuTrac\nSNAP, now called SmarTrader, and I\nresolved to see what had become of it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-658-660-product-review-smartrader-for-windows-version-2-5-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-658-660-product-review-smartrader-for-windows-version-2-5-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-658-660-product-review-smartrader-for-windows-version-2-5-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-135pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (661-662): Product Review: PC Quote for Windows, version 6.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PC Quote For Windows 6.0, Real-time Data Via Internet Plus Technical Analysis (PC Quote, Inc.). Live streaming real-time quotes, charts and technical analysis, NASDAQ level II data. by John Sweeney
With new data compression\nalgorithms surfacing\nregularly, apparent\nbandwidth on the\nInternet is exploding,\nand the delivery of financial data speeding up. A case in point is PC\nQuote 6.0 with its Hyperfeed datastream.\nPC Quote, along with software developer\nTownsend Analytics, delivers all\nUS and Canadian equities, equity options,\nfutures and futures options.\nPC Quote states that at just over one\nmegabyte per second, it can deliver literally\nevery tick with no filtering, packaging\nor drops in the data. To boot, the\ndatastream has the advantage of the\nInternet’s self-healing redundancy.\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES isn’t equipped to judge such assertions, but in my experience\nof simply using PC Quote’s\ndata, I found no exceptions. You can it yourself with a download of about\nfive megabytes from the PC Quote Web\nsite at http://www.pcquote.com/pcwnew/\ndownload.html."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-661-662-product-review-pc-quote-for-windows-version-6-0-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-661-662-product-review-pc-quote-for-windows-version-6-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-661-662-product-review-pc-quote-for-windows-version-6-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-136pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (663-664): Product Review: VirtualTrader For TradeStation, version 2.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""VirtualTrader For TradeStation, Advanced Training Simulator For Professional Traders, Version 2.0 (Titan Trading Analytics Inc.). Testing and trading simulator plus intraday tick data. by John Sweeney
If putting your personal\nwealth on the line doesn’t\nexcite you, perhaps practicing\nat it will. Though they\naren’t going to have the off-the-\nplanet graphics and sound of a\nNintendo video game, you can still get\na pretty good buzz from playing a trading\ngame — and you may even learn\nsomething in the process.
VirtualTrader training simulator in-stalls\non your computer and into your\ncopy of TradeStation. It’s a unique installation\nthat works perfectly and is\namazing to watch as your screen dances\naround. The result is a trading system of\nsorts that you manage from the screen\nas you go along. In other words, you are\nthe trading system.
It’s worth mentioning at this point\nthat vendor Titan Trading Analytics will also send along a pile of tick data for\nyou to use in getting up to speed. The\nprogram installs with three demos as\nwell, but the tick data comes from all the\ndaytrading favorites: Standard & Poor’s\n500, the S&P mini, Treasury bonds and\ncurrencies. For indices, it has the Dow\nJones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P\ncash, S&P 500 futures, NASDAQ, transports,\nutilities, TICK, TICKI,\nand S&P premium. These provide\na nice practice milieu."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-663-664-product-review-virtualtrader-for-tradestation-version-2-0-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-663-664-product-review-virtualtrader-for-tradestation-version-2-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-663-664-product-review-virtualtrader-for-tradestation-version-2-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-137pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (664-666): Product Review: Dual Thrust System by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dual Thrust System, Trading System For Seven Markets (Universal Technical Systems). A stop-and-reversal trading methodology for Treasury bonds, the Standard & Poor's 500 and five other futures contracts. by John Sweeney
At STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nwe rarely look at products\nfor which the trading methodology\nisn’t disclosed to\nthe user, and trading systems\noften aren’t. With our “how-to”\nfocus, we’re interested in learning something\nas well as making money. Further,\nreviewing systems can take many\nmonths and many resources. Given that,\nhowever, we’re as enthusiastic as anyone\nto see a fully disclosed, historically\nsuccessful trading system with a published\ntrack record. Such is registered\nCTA Michael Chalek’s Dual Thrust System,\nalthough the version we received\nonly has a track record since being reworked\nin March 1997. Onscreen, the\nprogram is labeled as version 1.0.
We received Dual Thrust in two versions:\nDOS and TradeStation. If you have the TradeStation version, any data\nyou can get into TradeStation, which is\njust about any data format, can be traded\nusing Dual Thrust. Plus, you can try out\nTradeStation’s stop and optimization\ntechniques. Either way, after you install\nthe program, you plug a hardware key\ninto your printer port, reattaching the\nprinter cord to the key."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-664-666-product-review-dual-thrust-system-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-664-666-product-review-dual-thrust-system-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-664-666-product-review-dual-thrust-system-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-138pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (667-668): Product Review: GlobalView in the Energy Markets by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""GlobalView, In The Energy Markets (GlobalView Software Inc.). Software that displays quotes and standard analytics for both retail and institutional environments. by John Sweeney
Customer service for the\nenergy industry really\nstands out in EnergyView,\none of GlobalView’s spe-cialized\ntrading platforms\nfor energy traders. GlobalView representatives\ninstall your software, create\nyour initial screen layouts, and teach you\nin person how to run the system. By the\nend of the day, you’re fully operational.
That can include integration with your\nfirm’s information systems — though\nthat’s not a one-day affair. GlobalView\nSoftware is the only data integration software\nprovider that assures integration\nwith full-span accounting and business\nmanagement environments that are increasingly\ndeployed throughout enterprises\nsuch as Shell or Amoco.
While it includes the browser interface,\nGlobalView can put together standard\nscreens and reports customized for\nnonexperts who need to retrieve standard information on a routine basis.\nSince GlobalView provides nearly\nevery energy-based information source\nfrom Platt’s to obscure faxed price sheets\nfrom Indonesia, they can integrate your\ninformation with theirs in standard reports.\nThese customized packages build\nGlobalView into proprietary information\nsystems that you can distribute to\nany of your locations with Internet access,\nwhich is to say, a large portion of\nthe world."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-667-668-product-review-globalview-in-the-energy-markets-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-667-668-product-review-globalview-in-the-energy-markets-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-667-668-product-review-globalview-in-the-energy-markets-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-139pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (669-673): Product Review: OptionVue 5 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""OptionVue 5, Version 1.11 (Optionvue Systems International, Inc.) Options analytical software. by John Sweeney
OptionVue International\nwas among the first, and\ncertainly among the most\nsuccessful, to deliver options\nsoftware that both\nprofessionals and retail customers could\nuse effectively. But until now, the program\nhadn’t been updated to Windows.\nNow, in OptionVue 5, OptionVue Systems\nInternational has not only upgraded\nthe search and analysis functions but\nalso put everything into a Windows\nformat.
OptionVue 5 also handles nearly every\ninstrument in the options world:\nequity and equity index options, LEAPs,\nbond options, currency options and futures options — domestic or foreign.\nOptionVue takes care of the symbols,\nthe conversion factors, the currencies\n— the whole megillah."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-669-673-product-review-optionvue-5-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-669-673-product-review-optionvue-5-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-669-673-product-review-optionvue-5-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-140pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (673-675): Product Review: Quotes Plus by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quotes Plus, Version 2.0 (Quotes Plus Inc.). Daily quotes for stocks, mutual funds, and lists from Investor's Reference Library. by John Sweeney
The Quotes Plus data service\nreceived rave reviews from\nus in July 1996. Since then,\nit’s been enhanced and expanded.\nIts strength before\nwas copious amounts of inexpensive\ndata; it’s still that, in spades.
In version 2.0, Quotes Plus comes on\nCD that installs the program while you\nfollow along in an illustrated, step-by-step\nbooklet. I found that very well\ndone, although I found the booklet omitted\nmentioning you must shut down the\nset-up program before installing the data\nbuffer. Otherwise, setup was easy, especially\nthe automatic update feature,\nwhereby the program examined my data\nand then updated, in my case, 16,000\nfiles that the Quotes Plus data server\naccumulated since the CD was issued to\nme. Updating is either by direct toll-free\nphone line to the Quotes Plus bulletin\nboard service, or via your Internet service provider (ISP). In my case, a month\npassed before I installed the program,\nbut it still handled getting all the intervening\ndays without flinching."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-673-675-product-review-quotes-plus-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-673-675-product-review-quotes-plus-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-673-675-product-review-quotes-plus-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-141pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (675-676): Product Review: Meyers Short Term Systems and Indicators, version 1.5 by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Meyers Short Term Systems & Indicators, Version 1.5 (Meyers Analytics, LLC). Eleven short-term trading systems and indicators. All can be used with any price series, but are applied in the product on German mark futures, Standard & Poor's 500 futures or Treasury bonds futures. by Thom Hartle
First-time users of Omega\nResearch’s TradeStation or\nSuperCharts software realize\nquickly that among the\nmany tools included in the\nsoftware is an open-ended opportunity for\ndeveloping their own indicators and trading\nsystems. However, developing effective\nmethods for trading is a complicated\nprocess. In fact, an entire cottage industry\nloosely known as Omega Research Solution\nProviders has sprung up, offering\nservices and products for TradeStation\nand SuperCharts users. Each solution pro-vider\noffers a unique set of functions for\nOmega Research’s customers. My question\nto you is: Do you want a set of fully\ndisclosed short-term trading systems with complete source code, a short tutorial on\nthe development and testing process, performance\nsummaries, instructions for combining\nthe systems, plus more details? All\nfor a very reasonable price? If you do, then\nconsider Dennis Meyers’ Short Term Systems\n& Indicators package.
Longtime readers of STOCKS & COMMODITIES\nmagazine should be familiar\nwith the work of Dennis Meyers. Meyers\nhas become one of our most prolific authors,\nhaving generated 20 articles (thus\nfar) that educate readers on everything\nfrom the pitfalls of optimization to how to\ndesign intermarket-based methods."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-675-676-product-review-meyers-short-term-systems-and-indicators-version-1-5-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-675-676-product-review-meyers-short-term-systems-and-indicators-version-1-5-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-675-676-product-review-meyers-short-term-systems-and-indicators-version-1-5-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-142pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (677-678): Product Review: NeuroShell Trader by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NeuroShell Trader (Ward Systems Group, Inc.) Neural nets for financial predictions. by John Sweeney
Neural nets, like artificial intelligence\nand chaos\ntheory, were once the hot\ntopic among traders. As the\nusual frustrations with a\nnew technique took hold, hype died\ndown and vendors consolidated. Of the\nremaining few, Ward Systems is among\nthe most dedicated of neural net vendors,\ndeveloper Steve Ward being an\nenthusiast, to say the least.
Ward noted that 40-50% of his neural\nnetwork customers were traders and\nresolved to offer them a complete pack-age\n— one with easy data access, charting,\nindicators, and no neural net confu-sion.\nThe goal was for them to turn it on\nand run it without being aware that it\nwas a neural net at all.
NeuroShell Trader doesn’t quite\nachieve that, but it gets close. The program\nfocuses on trading research: predicting\nprices, developing trading signals,\nfinding trends by testing and building\ncomplex indicators. NeuroShell\nTrader can do walk-forward testing,\ngraph its indicators and predictions along\nwith prices and export them to other\nprograms, principally that of Omega\nResearch and Equis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-677-678-product-review-neuroshell-trader-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-677-678-product-review-neuroshell-trader-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-677-678-product-review-neuroshell-trader-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-143pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (679-681): Product Review: OmniTrader 3.5 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""OmniTrader 3.5, Release 3 (Nirvana Systems Inc.). Automataed technical analysis, signal prospecting software. by John Sweeney
OmniTrader is an example of\nsoftware that attempts to\nautomate just about every-thing\nin the trading process.\nEmbedded in OmniTrader\nare about 120 different trading systems,\nand all you really do is select a list of\nstocks and/or futures you want analyzed.\nOnce you’ve selected a stock\nfrom your list, just double-click on the\nsymbol and the program will:
1. Plot a chart with automatic support\nand resistance lines
2. Backtest the entire history with those\nstandard trading systems that fit your\ninvestment style and have succeeded\nin the past
3. Combine the results with a vote between\nall the systems tested
4. Paste the voting results (trading signals)\non the bottom of the chart (Figure\n1).
The voting line is a compendium of signals automatically developed by\nOmniTrader 3.5. You can see all the\nsubsidiary signals by enlarging the\nsignal line area, as in Figure 2. To\nget these signals, OmniTrader 3.5\ntakes all your data on a tradable and\ntests it against 120 different systems,\nselecting those that test especially well.\nWhen you summon that tradable, it updates\nall the systems selected and then\ncombines their signals to come up with\na single recommendation. Both initial\nsignals and reinforcing signals are shown\nby various symbols."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-679-681-product-review-omnitrader-3-5-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-679-681-product-review-omnitrader-3-5-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-679-681-product-review-omnitrader-3-5-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-144pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (682-683): Product Review: MarkeTrack 98 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MarkeTrack 98 (Track Data Corporation). Internet-based quotes and charts service. by John Sweeney
Data vendors have just\nabout completed the task\nof adding the Internet delivery\nvehicle to the list\nof FM, satellite and leased\nfocus on presentation and\ncomprehensive content. A\nphone lines. Now they are starting to case in point is MarkeTrack\n98 from Track Data Corp.\nLike other Internet-based\ntrading station vendors,\nthey deliver a ton of\nquotes. The difference is\nthat, unlike many, they\nget their data right from\nthe exchange. They aren’t\nreselling data, thereby\neliminating one link that\ncan go down or inflict\ndata damage.
Then Track Data exploits\nthe multitasking in which case Windows will page the\nstuff on and off your hard drive).\nEach application will be something\nlike a chart, a quote table, a technical\nstudy, news, options, time and sales,\nor ticker. MarkeTrack 98 can also\nfeed a dynamic data exchange†\n(DDE) link while it’s at it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-682-683-product-review-marketrack-98-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-682-683-product-review-marketrack-98-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-682-683-product-review-marketrack-98-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-145pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (684-685): Product Review: OptionTrader 98 Professional Edition by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""OptionTrader 98 Professional Edition (Austinsoft Incorporated). Options data analysis software for trading sheets and trade search. by John Sweeney
When last we saw OpCalc\nProfessional, the precursor\nto OptionTrader 98, I\ndescribed it as an options\ncalculator with some data\nacquisition problems and a nifty trade\nsearch capability. OptionTrader 98\npretty much eliminates the data problems\nand spiffies up the output while\nretaining the trade-scanning strength.\nThe result is a very cost-efficient options\nanalysis program you could use\nfor daily trading.
Actually, that’s how the program got\nstarted. The principals at AustinSoft\nwill probably be on the trading floor at\nthe World Trade Center if you call to\nchat about the software. OptionTrader\n98 benefits from this hands-on involvement.
For instance, daily trading sheets (Figure\n1) can be generated by OptionTrader\n98. These tell you where prices should\nbe given underlying and just about anything else. That’s because AustinSoft\nlets you set the columns and rows to\nmore than 100 different fields, from\ngreeks† to implied volatility. If you\ndon’t want to wait for a computer to\ncome up with a number, check your\nsheet. This even works for spreads."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-684-685-product-review-optiontrader-98-professional-edition-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-684-685-product-review-optiontrader-98-professional-edition-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-684-685-product-review-optiontrader-98-professional-edition-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-146pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (686-688): Product Review: TeleChart 2000, version 4.0 for Windows by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TeleChart 2000, Version 4.0 For Windows (Worden Brothers, Inc.). Data service covering 9,778 stocks with fundamentals, plus charting and scanning software and free historical data from 1984. by John Sweeney
TeleChart was first developed\nas a data service but has\nbecome an example of\ncharting and scanning software\nof some note. TC2000\nalso comes with a good scanning package,\nsymbol list management and a personal\njournal capability that’s quite\nunique. Though the data service is paramount,\nastute users getting the intraday\nupdates can turn TeleChart 2000 into\nsomething approaching a full trading\nsupport package.
DATA\nAt the heart of TeleChart 2000’s handiness\nis the data update feature. With\nTeleChart 2000, you get your entire database\nupdated every time you check in.\nData costs just over $1 per updated day, no\nmatter how many times you call in, and\nsome users downloaded every 15 minutes!\nThe program keeps, roughly, the last\n14 years of data (since 1984) on a combination of the CD (which should be mounted\nat all times) and your hard drive."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-686-688-product-review-telechart-2000-version-4-0-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-686-688-product-review-telechart-2000-version-4-0-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-686-688-product-review-telechart-2000-version-4-0-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-147pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (689): Product Review: Bollinger Group Power by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Bollinger Group Power (AIQ Systems, Inc.). John Bollinger's industry groupings arranged for use with AIQ's TradingExpert. by John Sweeney
Lately, group analysis has\nbecome more of an issue,\nwith investors becoming\nmore sophisticated in their\ntrading of stocks, as opposed to buying and holding stocks.\nWhat were once one-industry decisions\n(high-tech first, last, and foremost) have\nbecome more difficult as the bull market\nhas hesitated in late 1998 and defensive\npositions with equity upsides are\nmore difficult to find.
Academic studies have long differentiated\nbetween return and risk due to\nthe market versus those due to company\ncapabilities. Analyst John Bollinger’s\nreview of such studies places the return\nfrom stocks even more precisely: 50% is from the industry group. He assigns\nthe remaining return to the market at\nabout 30%, and the stock itself at 20%.
To make such an analysis concrete, Bollinger, who is best known as money\nmanager, analyst, and newsletter publisher,\nhas created his own industry\ngroupings based not only on the line of\nbusiness of each company but also the\ntrading pattern of its stock. He has examined\nthe correlation between stocks\nto see that they are not only in similar\nlines of business but also trade with\nsimilar price patterns. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-689-product-review-bollinger-group-power-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-689-product-review-bollinger-group-power-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-689-product-review-bollinger-group-power-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c14-148pr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:14 (690-692): Product Review: MetaStock Professional For Signal and BMI by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MetaStock Professional, For Signal and BMI (Equis International). Real-time analytical software including five-year historical database on 30,000 stocks, mutual funds, futures, and indices. by John Sweeney
One of the most pleasant\ntasks I have is reviewing\nEquisInternational’s products. They don’t come out\nvery often, but what makes\nit nice is that its new releases always\nwork right out of the box. You’re never\ngoing to have to fuss with INI files,\noptions that don’t work (and must be\ndouble-checked with the vendor), or\noff-the-wall features. Equis,though now\na subsidiary of info-giant Reuters, still\ntakes its own sweet time about getting\nthe software right and, when one of its\nproducts do turn out to have a bug, you\nget the actual pleasure of working with\ntheir tech support wizards.
Here’s an example of a quality company: In its packaging, Equis includes a\nseparate folder listing all the ways their personnel can be reached for support.\nEvery other company buries this information\nsomewhere in a thick manual or\nconfusing online aside, but Equis is\nconfident enough you won’t have big\nproblems that they put it right in front of\nyou.
Here’s the scoop: MetaStock Pro is\nthe low-cost entry for real-time analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-690-692-product-review-metastock-professional-for-signal-and-bmi-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-690-692-product-review-metastock-professional-for-signal-and-bmi-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-14-690-692-product-review-metastock-professional-for-signal-and-bmi-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv1let1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:1: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
Some of the letter received this month discuss Daniel\nChesler’s article in the September 1997\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES, “Identifying\nsignificant chart formations,” the McClellan oscillator, and an article by Dennis\nMeyers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-1-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv110t,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:2 (106-108): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Tips
Code for this month's Traders' Tips include the four indicators presented in Rudy Stefenel’s article “Anchored momentum,” recreated in MetaStock; Tim Tillson's article “Smoothing techniques for\nmore accurate signals” in TradeStation, SuperCharts and Windows On WallStreet; Gerald Marisch's \""Breaking out of price channels,\"" in Technifilter Plus, WAVE WI$E, and SMARTrader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-106-108-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-106-108-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-106-108-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c02-009gann-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:2 (57-66): The New Gann Swing Chartist by Robert Krausz, MH, BCHE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The New Gann Swing Chartist by Robert Krausz, MH, BCHE
This is more than an article that teaches technical analysis. It's also a story about how one professional trader, a New Market Wizard, came into possession of a rare technical method, and the steps he took to turn it into a valid trading plan. Here, then, is Robert Krausz's Basic trading plan, one of four published in his book, A W.D. Gann Treasure Discovered.
To many market participants, technical analysis is the foundation of any technical trading plan, when in fact, market analysis and trading are two different modalities. Market analysis can determine whether important information such as the trend has changed direction or the market has reached support. The trading plan, however, will have specific rules for you to take action, and therein lies the difference. The market analysis can tell you when and why to take action; the trading plan tells you what action to take.
It is the blending of these two modalities that is a key step toward becoming a successful trader. Every aspect of the two modalities — the market analysis and the trading plan; the entry and exit rules; money management and other details — must be in concert. Analysis is the handmaiden for trading, and not the other way around. If your technical work signals that the trend has changed direction, then that signal should be the same reason for you to take action in the market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-57-66-the-new-gann-swing-chartist-by-robert-krausz-mh-bche-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-57-66-the-new-gann-swing-chartist-by-robert-krausz-mh-bche-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-57-66-the-new-gann-swing-chartist-by-robert-krausz-mh-bche-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c02-010meta-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:2 (67-69): Metaphors For Trading by Ruth Barrons Roosevelt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Metaphors For Trading by Ruth Barrons Roosevelt
The metaphors we use in our lives can be powerful emotional symbols, and how we view the market is reflected in those metaphors. Change those metaphors and develop a more successful attitude. Here's how.
The creation of metaphors that empower is one more tool you can use to enhance your trading. The metaphors you use regarding your trading have a direct impact on your approach to trading and consequently\non your profitability.
Usually, we don’t choose metaphors consciously, and yet they’re in the back of our minds guiding our interpretation of what’s happening and our expectations\nof what will occur. Sometimes they support us and sometimes they don’t. A metaphor is a comparison of one thing to another. Life’s a bowl of cherries, say some. Life’s the pits, say others. Life’s a bitch and then you die. It’s a jungle out there. Life’s a ball! A picnic. A contest. A game."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-67-69-metaphors-for-trading-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-67-69-metaphors-for-trading-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-67-69-metaphors-for-trading-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c02-011mult-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:2 (70-76): Using Multiple Moving Averages by Daryl Guppy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Multiple Moving Averages by Daryl Guppy
Moving averages, familiar to every technical trader, are used by most technicians to identify important trends. Here's a unique twist on using multiple moving averages as an early warning of trend reversals.
Technical analysis is an adaptive process, pressing at the edges of possibility and developing new approaches from ideas glimpsed in passing. The multiple moving average (MMA) is an indicator developed from one such encounter. It uses core information generated from multiple time frames to capture and understand a concept of market dynamics rather than specific value readings.
As part of her search for high-probability swing trading points, technical trader Linda Bradford Raschke did some work with momentum-based oscillators to identify negative feedback setups. This was one of several steppingstones toward developing some solutions applicable to swing trading, fast-moving commodity markets, and discussed in her work Street Smarts. Although her focus was on the relationship between range and momentum as a way of identifying the start of positive feedback loops, an observation about contraction points tripped off a series of associated thoughts for me."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-70-76-using-multiple-moving-averages-by-daryl-guppy-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-70-76-using-multiple-moving-averages-by-daryl-guppy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-70-76-using-multiple-moving-averages-by-daryl-guppy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c02-012exit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:2 (77-82): Exits, Stops And Strategy by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Exits, Stops And Strategy by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick
Everyone's looking for entry trading signals, but what about after you're in the trade? Here are different techniques for making a graceful — and profitable — exit.
Previously, we focused for the most part on the timing of trading entries. We examined how useful various factors and methodologies were in helping us de-cide\nwhen and where to enter a trade. We tested everything from cycles to sunspot activity, from simple rule-based approaches to advanced genetic algorithms and neural networks. We kept our exit strategies simple and fairly constant across all tests so that a reasonably fair comparison of entry methods could be made. In general, we used a fixed money management stop, sometimes a profit target, and almost always an exit-at-market order after a given number of bars, or days, in the trade. Our focus was on the entry, not the exit.
This time, we will shift our attention to how to get out of a trade — that is, the challenge of the exit strategy, a problem often neglected in trading literature."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-77-82-exits-stops-and-strategy-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-and-donna-l-mccormick-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-77-82-exits-stops-and-strategy-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-and-donna-l-mccormick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-77-82-exits-stops-and-strategy-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-and-donna-l-mccormick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c02-013int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:2 (83-88): Charles White Of Tucson Asset Management by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Charles White Of Tucson Asset Management by Thom Hartle
Charles White's career has ranged broadly from fixed-income portfolio manager to Commodity Trading Advisor. Today, as one of the three principals of Tucson Asset Management, White is doing it all as he advises institutional fixed-income managers as well as maintaining three managed-futures programs, with approximately $50 million under management. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle interviewed White via telephone on November 18, 1997, asking him about issues that are key to developing trading systems as well as what investors should look for when deciding on a CTA.
So how did your career begin?
I started off in the banking industry. I worked for a bank\nin California under the chief financial officer and I directed the management of the investment portfolio, which was primarily a mortgage-backed securities portfolio. Late in 1988, I joined Hal Lindquist and Jeff Stephenson. Hal had formed an advisory firm, as well as a broker-dealer concern. So I came over to assist in the growth of his advisory business."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-83-88-charles-white-of-tucson-asset-management-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-83-88-charles-white-of-tucson-asset-management-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-83-88-charles-white-of-tucson-asset-management-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c02-014anch-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:2 (89-98): Anchored Momentum by Rudy Stefenel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Anchored Momentum by Rudy Stefenel
A centered simple moving average can be used as a reference point when creating technical analysis indicators. Even though a centered simple moving average produces a plot much smoother than its related price plot, the centered moving average technique is generally ignored because it stops short by half of its period. However, some unique and effective momentum indicators can be anchored to a point on a centered simple moving average. Here are the benefits of anchored momentum.
Two points on a security price plot can be used to calculate ordinary momentum. A straight line drawn between these points is the momentum line. Figure 1 shows a 27-day centered simple moving average (purple) for the NASDAQ composite index with two different 13-day momentum lines. The ordinary momentum line is green; the anchored momentum line is red. Both end at the closing price on the last day, which is the end of the price plot."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-89-98-anchored-momentum-by-rudy-stefenel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-89-98-anchored-momentum-by-rudy-stefenel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-89-98-anchored-momentum-by-rudy-stefenel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c02-015doub-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:2 (99-105): Double Bottoms by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Double Bottoms by Thomas Bulkowski
The mirror image of a double top, the double bottom is a more profitable longer-term play. Find out why.
At first, I thought double bottoms were just double tops flipped upside down, but I was wrong. It’s not the formation that’s the puzzle; it’s the price trend leading to a double bottom. With double tops and many reversal\npatterns appearing near the top of a price series, the approach leading to the pattern is usually steep. Prices rise rapidly, execute a reversal pattern, then drop just as quickly. With bottom formations, you can still have that type of behavior — a catastrophic decline that turns and the stock recovers. However, it is also possible that you could witness a quick decline, then a slower, torturous downtrend as prices continue to drop even further, spread out over many months.
To detect double bottoms automatically, I couldn’t just flip around the computer code to detect tops. I had to change the algorithm to accommodate the possibility of a meandering decline. Once that was accomplished, the program I designed to search my database was correctly detecting double bottoms in many of the stocks I follow."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-99-105-double-bottoms-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-99-105-double-bottoms-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-99-105-double-bottoms-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv1let2,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:2: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
This month's letters discuss the CMT and CTA designations, the definition of the fair value index, hedge funds, and has a beginner's reading list on stocks and another on commodities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-2-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c03-017win-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:3 (111-121): Improving The Win-Loss Ratio With The Relative Strength Index by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Improving The Win-Loss Ratio With The Relative Strength Index by Thomas Bulkowski
Here's a refresher on the relative strength index, and how to improve your win-loss ratio.
Technical analysts can be divided into two basic camps — those who rely on charts and those who use indicators. Of course, you can use both methods; you might even want to combine them using statistics. If you know your indicator well enough, you should be able to examine any chart and tell when the indicator is going to signal. That may be part of the secret of being a successful investor: Knowing when your tools work and when they don’t; predicting when they will signal, and when they won’t.
I am partial to charts. I was a convert from the fundamental camp; it was almost 15 years after I began to invest seriously that I took an interest in the squiggles that a price series makes over time. Later still, I began to believe that reading the charts held some significance. For example, now, I won’t buy a stock if I see a bearish reversal forming. I might miss an opportunity, but I’m lowering the risk of losing my shirt."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-111-121-improving-the-win-loss-ratio-with-the-relative-strength-index-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-111-121-improving-the-win-loss-ratio-with-the-relative-strength-index-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-111-121-improving-the-win-loss-ratio-with-the-relative-strength-index-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c03-018how-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:3 (122-126): How Has The Stock Market Priced Itself? by Gordon W. Neal"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How Has The Stock Market Priced Itself? by Gordon W. Neal
Here's a statistical view of the stock market using the Standard & Poor's 500 as the basis for analysis, and a collection of fundamental influences.
Assessing whether the overall market is priced right is a goal of most investors. To do so, we can look at ways that the market has valued itself in the past, and there is plenty of data available. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is a good base, since it is a gauge of general market performance going back several decades. There are, besides earnings and dividends, other recognized market influences. Some are:
• Interest rates: These affect stock prices in at least two ways: First, by altering the return from financial instruments that compete with common stocks, and second, by changing the cost of funds needed to conduct business. Rising rates depress stock prices.
• Cost inflation: This can increase the dollar value of earnings over the long term, but also raises borrowing and other costs. Usually negative, particularly in the short term.
• Book value of stock: Book value may have some influence on prices."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-122-126-how-has-the-stock-market-priced-itself-by-gordon-w-neal-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-122-126-how-has-the-stock-market-priced-itself-by-gordon-w-neal-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-122-126-how-has-the-stock-market-priced-itself-by-gordon-w-neal-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c03-019gann-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:3 (127-129): Combining Gann’s 50% Rule With VIDYA by Gerald Marisch"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Combining Gann’s 50% Rule With VIDYA by Gerald Marisch
Sometimes, the most puzzling of trading questions can be answered with the simplest of technical methods. Here, two such methods are combined for trading: Tushar Chande's variable indexed dynamic average (VIDYA), a moving average that automatically adjusts to the current market's volatility and is used as a trend indicator, and a classic rule of thumb from early-day trader W.D. Gann known as the 50% rule is added.
Off-floor, intraday traders are faced with decisions throughout the trading day. Two of the simpler yet most perplexing questions are, first: Which way are prices trending? And second: Is the reaction occurring during a trend, part of the trend, or the end of the trend? For the\nanswers to these questions and many more, consider W.D. Gann’s 50% rule, and a previously introduced trend monitor called the VIDYA 21,5."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-127-129-how-has-the-stock-market-priced-itself-by-gordon-w-neal-19.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-127-129-combining-gann-s-50-rule-with-vidya-by-gerald-marisch-3.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-127-129-combining-gann-s-50-rule-with-vidya-by-gerald-marisch-4.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c03-020use-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:3 (130-134): Using Relative P/E Ratios And Technical Analysis by Peter Desnoyers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Relative P/E Ratios And Technical Analysis by Peter Desnoyers
Here's why you should track both fundamentals and technicals for trading stocks.
The financial storm arrived in New York on October 19, 1987, following a volatile week in the markets. Weekend news of the Federal Reserve’s desire\nfor a weaker dollar set the stage for investor skittishness. The selling began in Japan and gained strength in London, giving early warning of unprecedented weakness in New York. By 10 a.m. on October 19, only a few of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) components had opened, and it became clear that the day was going to be an extraordinary one.
That was Monday. By the end of the week, the DJIA had lost 13% of its value and was 800 points below its level of two months before. As the October 26th issue of Newsweek reported, “The cascading Dow and record trading volume marked a major shift in psychology and sent a powerful shiver across the country.”"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-130-134-using-relative-p-e-ratios-and-technical-analysis-by-peter-desnoyers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-130-134-using-relative-p-e-ratios-and-technical-analysis-by-peter-desnoyers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-130-134-using-relative-p-e-ratios-and-technical-analysis-by-peter-desnoyers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c03-021exit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:3 (135-141): Testing Exit Strategies by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Testing Exit Strategies by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick
Everyone's looking for entry trading signals, but what about after you're in the trade? Last time, Katz and McCormick looked at different techniques for making a graceful — and profitable — exit. This time, they're testing various exit strategies, both separately and in combination, to determine how well they can improve a trading system.
Last time, we discussed the problem of exit strategies. We determined that a good exit strategy is important because failing to exit at the proper time can cost a trader dearly, and we also concluded that a good exit strategy must, above all, strictly control losses while not sacrificing too many potentially profitable trades in the process; at best, it must allow profitable trades to fully mature. If risks can be controlled by quickly exiting from losing trades without killing or cutting short too many winning trades, a losing system might even be turned into a profitable one. Most important, during the inevitable bad periods, a good exit strategy that incorporates solid money management and capital preservation techniques can increase the probability that you will still be around for the next potentially profitable trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-135-141-testing-exit-strategies-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-and-donna-l-mccormick-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-135-141-testing-exit-strategies-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-and-donna-l-mccormick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-135-141-testing-exit-strategies-by-jeffrey-owen-katz-ph-d-and-donna-l-mccormick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c03-023int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:3 (145-151): Trading And Control: Walter Bressert by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading And Control: Walter Bressert by Thom Hartle
For commodity and futures traders, the technique of using cycles as a trading strategy will undoubtedly bring to mind trader and analyst Walter Bressert. Bressert, who has been in the trading industry for nearly 30 years, was the publisher and editor of the well-regarded newsletter HAL Commodity Cycles for 12 years. In addition, he wrote The Power Of Oscillator/Cycle Combinations and is today the president of The Bressert Group. His work and techniques are now available in the Cycle Trader software. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle spoke to Bressert via telephone on December 22, 1997, about trading, being in control, cycles, oscillators and the 12 cardinal mistakes that traders make."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-145-151-trading-and-control-walter-bressert-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-145-151-trading-and-control-walter-bressert-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-145-151-trading-and-control-walter-bressert-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c03-024alt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:3 (152-155): Alternative Investments For Volatile Times by Gary Spitz"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Alternative Investments For Volatile Times by Gary Spitz
The stock market isn't the only asset class available to qualified investors; for example, there are managed futures and hedge funds. Here's an overview of the hedge fund industry, as well as recent performance tables.
Is the stock market due for a more substantial correction? Will volatility increase? Is this volatility setting the market up for a substantial move, down\nor up? Regardless of the outcome, wise investors should be looking to diversify their portfolios into noncorrelated investments, because portfolios of\nnoncorrelated assets should potentially show a smoother long-term growth curve. This strategy is based on the expectation that positive returns in a portfolio of noncorrelated assets should at least offset and preferably outperform the negative returns. Investors need and should demand noncorrelated investments inside and outside traditional asset classes or investment categories.
There are a number of asset classes that are not correlated to the stock market, but institutions and accredited investors are investing record amounts into two: managed futures and hedge funds. While these categories make up a wide array of investments, collectively, they are referred to as alternative investments. Either of these investments have the potential to do well during a variety of market conditions, such as when the stock and bond markets are underperforming their historical returns. Thus, investors should consider either of these alternative asset classes for their portfolios."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-152-155-alternative-investments-for-volatile-times-by-gary-spitz-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-152-155-alternative-investments-for-volatile-times-by-gary-spitz-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-152-155-alternative-investments-for-volatile-times-by-gary-spitz-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v163letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:3:Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
This month's letters discuss Tim Tillson's smoothing technique and the previous issue's interview with Andrew Lo."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-3-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c04-026germ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:4 (161-168): The German Mark Noise Channel Breakout System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The German Mark Noise Channel Breakout System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Interested in a trend-following method for currency markets? Currency markets generally exhibit the strongest tendency to trend, a key feature for trend-followers. Here's a method that's both simple and effective to take advantage of that. Presented here are the rules and steps to develop a trend-following method for currencies.
The German mark (abbreviated DM, for Deutschemark) is a major currency traded worldwide by corporations, institutions, banks, commodity funds and futures traders. It is traded 24 hours per day, and most of the world’s largest banks make a two-sided market in it and its associated derivatives.
Small traders, however, are constrained to trade the DM futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). German mark futures are traded from 7:20 am to 2:00 pm on the CME and from 2:30 pm to 7:05 am on the CME Globex system. While the CME DM futures trading volume is small when compared with total worldwide bank and institutional trading volume, arbitrage keeps the futures prices in line with the bigger markets."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-161-168-the-german-mark-noise-channel-breakout-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-161-168-the-german-mark-noise-channel-breakout-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-161-168-the-german-mark-noise-channel-breakout-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c04-027zero-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:4 (169-172): Zero Cost Averaging by Terrence M. Quinn and Kristin A. Quinn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Zero Cost Averaging by Terrence M. Quinn and Kristin A. Quinn
This technique steps in to assist in the management of the investment after the investor has determined which securities to purchase and when to open the position.
Traditionally, fundamental analysis and technical analysis have been used to evaluate stocks, mutual funds and other equity securities. With technical analysis, the focus is upon the tradable instrument’s actual price movement in the marketplace, as opposed\nto fundamental analysis, whereby the company’s earnings potential is examined and the trading instrument’s performance in the marketplace is not analyzed. Based on price patterns, technicians endeavor to determine when it is the best time to buy (or sell) the security.
There is a third form of security analysis, known as zero cost averaging (ZCA). ZCA’s objective is to assist the investor in answering the question of how to invest in the stock, mutual fund or other security. Zero cost averaging does not replace either fundamental or technical analysis; rather, ZCA works with other analytical methods. Once the investor has determined what securities to purchase and when is a good time to open the position, ZCA steps in to assist in the management of the investment."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-169-172-zero-cost-averaging-by-terrence-m-quinn-and-kristin-a-quinn-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-169-172-zero-cost-averaging-by-terrence-m-quinn-and-kristin-a-quinn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-169-172-zero-cost-averaging-by-terrence-m-quinn-and-kristin-a-quinn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c04-028iden-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:4 (173-179): Identifying Market Trends by Jack Karczewski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Identifying Market Trends by Jack Karczewski
The trend of the market is key to most every technical approach available. But the market doesn't always trend. Here's how to use a statistical tool for determining if the market is in a trend.
Traders spend untold amounts of intellectual capital analyzing a market for clues about trend. We try to determine if there is a trend present, when it began, if it has reversed or broken down. The methods employed to interpret this information range from simple chart analysis to sophisticated computer algorithms. Even simple moving averages can become quite complex when the permutations and combinations of moving averages, their various lengths, crossovers and forms such as simple, weighted and exponential, are considered.
I use one analytical method in particular to identify trends. This technique gives not only the direction, but the slope, the magnitude of the error of the prediction and the reliability of the forecast of the trend. The statistical method is referred to as linear regression. This tool has become more readily available to traders with the current standard software."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-173-179-identifying-market-trends-by-jack-karczewski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-173-179-identifying-market-trends-by-jack-karczewski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-173-179-identifying-market-trends-by-jack-karczewski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c04-029appl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:4 (180-182): Applying Moving Averages by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Applying Moving Averages by John Sweeney
The moving average, one of the first technical methods that novice traders study, can be applied to your favorite markets. Here are its strengths and weaknesses.
It’s commonplace to honor simplicity but to simultaneously forsake it. The proliferation of indicators developed in the past 10 years alone is testament to that. What is simple is that prices are rising, falling or unchanging. What is complex are the indicators, mathematical contortions depicting the movement of price and volume in some abstracted form.
As a fan of the objectivity of indicators, I nevertheless try to keep in mind what message they are trying to tell us. In many cases, the message is something as simple as Prices have risen. Note the past tense; no indicator uses future prices as inputs. When an indicator starts to move, price has already moved.To bring our perception closer to reality, we start talking about lines crossing or levels being breached or cyclic content or\nwaves or neurofuzzy relationships or—well, you name it. While the sethings have their place, their ranking is low compared with the fundamental observation: Price has moved."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-180-182-applying-moving-averages-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-180-182-applying-moving-averages-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-180-182-applying-moving-averages-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c04-030risk-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:4 (183-188): What Is Risk? by Gary Anderson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What Is Risk? by Gary Anderson
There are many ways to view risk. Some measurements treat risk and reward alike; if a stock is outperforming the market to the upside, there is an implicit expectation that the stock may also outperform the market to the downside. This article introduces the concept of comparing how a stock performs during up movements relative to a benchmark and then, separately, measuring performance relative to downward movements by the benchmark.
Risk is routinely measured as standard deviation, or volatility. Certainly, volatility is risky. But as a definition, volatility does not cover what most of us mean by\nrisk. Could we come up with a more intuitive measure of risk than we have available? In order to be relevant, any workable approach must be guided by the\npractical concerns of investors. In order to communicate, our language would have to remain true to ordinary definitions. A method with which to measure risk that everyone will understand must be based on what is already a given. With this in mind, we asked a basic question of clients and colleagues: Why do investors hire managers? The answers that came back to us were consistent and not very surprising: First, investors hire managers to create gains, and second, investors hire managers to protect capital against loss."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-183-188-what-is-risk-by-gary-anderson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-183-188-what-is-risk-by-gary-anderson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-183-188-what-is-risk-by-gary-anderson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c04-031int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:4 (189-197): Asoka Selvarajah Of Rabobank International by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Asoka Selvarajah Of Rabobank International by Thom Hartle
According to Asoka Selvarajah, markets do make sense ultimately, but not in a way that most people imagine. To understand the markets, according to Selvarajah, requires a dash of Pythagorean theory, a smidgen of Newtonian physics, and even some chaos. Selvarajah, who works for Rabobank International, one of the largest banks in the world and one of the few European banks with a triple-A rating, was interviewed by Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle via E-mail over a period of several weeks in January 1998, discussing systematic trading and development as well as trading overseas markets.
Q: We like to start with some personal history. What’s\nyour background?
A: I graduated with a bachelor’s degree in physics and a doctorate in nuclear physics from Birmingham University in England. A fair part of my doctoral years were spent doing research at CERN, the particle physics institution in Geneva, Switzerland. Actually, the Internet was invented at CERN, and I guess I must have been one of the first to write his entire doctoral thesis as an Internet document, back in 1986!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-189-197-asoka-selvarajah-of-rabobank-international-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-189-197-asoka-selvarajah-of-rabobank-international-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-189-197-asoka-selvarajah-of-rabobank-international-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c04-032use-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:4 (198-203): Using Trailing Stops In Exit Strategies by J. Katz, Ph.D., and D. McCormick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Trailing Stops In Exit Strategies by J. Katz, Ph.D., and D. McCormick
Last issue, we saw a demonstration of how an exit strategy can affect the performance of a trading system. This time, we will discover how to measure the impact of exiting the market by using trailing-stop techniques.
Previously, we explored the behavior of a simple exit strategy involving a profit target exit, a stop-loss exit and a time-based exit. We used a standardized random entry system in which a random number generator\nprovided us with entries into positions from which we could exit. Our goal was to find out how an exit strategy could improve the performance of a system whose trade entries were essentially random.
This exercise demonstrated that a proper combination of even simple exit methods such as fixed dollar-amount stop-losses and profit targets can substantially improve the behavior of a trading system — even turning a random, losing system into a profitable one! Employing stop-losses and profit targets of the wrong sizes can ruin a trading system, making it perform significantly worse than it would have otherwise. Finally, although there is some interaction between the entry method and the behavior of the exit strategy, there is also much similarity across entry methods in the behavior of the exits."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-198-203-using-trailing-stops-in-exit-strategies-by-j-katz-ph-d-and-d-mccormick-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-198-203-using-trailing-stops-in-exit-strategies-by-j-katz-ph-d-and-d-mccormick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-4-198-203-using-trailing-stops-in-exit-strategies-by-j-katz-ph-d-and-d-mccormick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c05-034surf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:5 (209-218): Surfing The Linear Regression Curve . . . by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Surfing The Linear Regression Curve With Bond Futures by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Linear regression, a statistical technique that fits a straight line to data points, can also be a proxy for a market trend. Here's a trading system that uses the measured percentage change of the trend of the Treasury bond market.
The US Treasury bond futures contract is one of the most actively traded exchange contracts in the world. The US Treasury bond future is traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) and is used by major banks, institutions, and trading firms to trade, arbitrage and hedge their bond portfolios and associated derivative products. On the CBT, bond futures are traded from 7:20 am to 2 pm, and on the CBT Project A system, in the afternoons from 2:30 pm to 4:30 pm and in overnight session from 5:55 pm to 6:45 am. (The CBT recently discontinued the open outcry evening sessions in bond futures and replaced those sessions with the computerized Project A.) The trading volume in the US Treasury bond futures is big, and arbitrage keeps futures prices in line with the even larger over-the-counter Treasury bond market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-209-218-surfing-the-linear-regression-curve-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-209-218-surfing-the-linear-regression-curve-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-209-218-surfing-the-linear-regression-curve-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c05-035over-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:5 (219-224): A 10-Year Overview Of Market Sentiment by Joe Duarte, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""A 10-Year Overview Of Market Sentiment by Joe Duarte, M.D.
Crowd psychology plays a role in the development of market tops and bottoms. In theory, a bottom forms when the majority of investors are extremely pessimistic, and a top occurs when the investors are uniformly bullish. Here's a review of the past performance of a collection of indicators used to measure investor sentiment.
In my January 1992 STOCKS & COMMODITIES article, I described a group of seven indicators which, when combined, produced an extremely accurate forecaster for higher prices in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Over the following six years, the indicator proved to be highly effective in predicting higher prices when gauged a year after giving a buy signal as measured by the S&P 500, during an extraordinary period in market history when the index climbed 708 points and 233 as of February 8, 1998. The indicator combines weekly stock market survey numbers, the S&P 500, a short-term moving average, and two other market sentiment measures.
On August 1, 1997, the combination of the seven indicators — the Super Seven market forecaster — gave its first-ever sell signal. On October 27, the US stock market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 554 points. On December 26, 1997, and January 7, 1998, the Super Seven gave its second and third sell signals, casting a shadow over the longest bull market of the 20th century."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-219-224-a-10-year-overview-of-market-sentiment-by-joe-duarte-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-219-224-a-10-year-overview-of-market-sentiment-by-joe-duarte-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-219-224-a-10-year-overview-of-market-sentiment-by-joe-duarte-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c05-036auto-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:5 (225-232): Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D.
Support and resistance analysis is a proven method for selecting key price levels for trading decisions; traders usually perform the analysis by hand. The automatic charting method and new oscillators presented here are easy to implement and give a precise comparison of price to these important levels.
Sir Isaac Newton’s first law of motion is one that is familiar to us all, stating that “Every body continues in its state of rest, or in uniform motion in a straight line, unless compelled to change that state by forces impressed upon it.” It is relevant here, because the same can be said for price behavior. Like physical objects, prices have inertia and momentum. When at rest, prices often stay at rest, building congestion. When in motion, prices often stay in motion, along a trend. But like Newton’s apple, price momentum changes when market forces are applied. The influencing event is sometimes known and sometimes not, but in any case cannot be hidden and can be seen in the price. Prices will often move in one direction for a period, only to stop and flatten or move in the other direction. This occurs because market forces have changed the momentum. The turning point has significance for future price behavior."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-225-232-automated-support-and-resistance-by-mel-widner-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-225-232-automated-support-and-resistance-by-mel-widner-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-225-232-automated-support-and-resistance-by-mel-widner-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c05-037barr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:5 (233-239): Using Barrier Stops In Exit Strategies by J. Katz, Ph.D., and D. McCormick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Barrier Stops In Exit Strategies by J. Katz, Ph.D., and D. McCormick
A simple technical method for exiting a trade is the break of a trendline on a chart. This article measures the performance of using this strategy as an exit rule.
In recent articles, we explored the topic of exits and experimented to see whether the behavior of simple exit strategies could improve the performance of a system whose trade entries were essentially random. Our first exploration was of an exit strategy that involved a profit target exit, a stop-loss exit, and a time-based exit. Then we examined the behavior of trailing stops. In all instances, we used a standardized random entry system in which a random-number generator provided us with the entries into positions from which we could exit. Thus far, we have found that a proper combination of even simple exit methods (for example, fixed–dollar amount stop-losses and profit targets) can substantially improve the behavior of a trading system — even turning a random, losing system into a profitable one! We also learned that employing stop-losses and profit targets of the wrong sizes, or incorrect parameters for trailing stops, can ruin a trading system, making it perform significantly worse.
Finally, although there is some interaction between the entry method and the behavior of the exit strategy, we discovered that there was also much similarity across entry methods in the behavior of the exits."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-233-239-using-barrier-stops-in-exit-strategies-by-j-katz-ph-d-and-d-mccormick-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-233-239-using-barrier-stops-in-exit-strategies-by-j-katz-ph-d-and-d-mccormick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-233-239-using-barrier-stops-in-exit-strategies-by-j-katz-ph-d-and-d-mccormick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c05-038int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:5 (240-246): About Managed Futures And Commodity . . . Gary Spitz by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""About Managed Futures And Commodity Trading Advisors -- Interview with Gary Spitz by Thom Hartle
Gary Spitz, principal of CTA Research Corp., recognized early on the value of professional money managers in the futures markets as an asset class for investors. Further research led him to develop an index to track the performance of Commodity Trading Advisors in ways that reveal those managers who are consistent performers. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Spitz via telephone on February 19, 1998, about his views on what investors should look for when considering this asset class.
Q: How did you start out in the business?
A: I was an options broker back in 1984 to 1987 for a\ncommission house. Unfortunately, I had the same experience that many people complain about in commodities — that there were two parties that made money on every transaction, one being the brokerage\nand the other being the broker. It was rare that the client was a winner. During that same period, I heard about\nmanaged futures, and an acquaintance started doing research on the industry. His findings went against all the conventional thinking that I had heard about the futures industry.
Q: And that was?
A: That everybody loses money."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-240-246-about-managed-futures-and-commodity-gary-spitz-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-240-246-about-managed-futures-and-commodity-gary-spitz-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-240-246-about-managed-futures-and-commodity-gary-spitz-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c05-039vol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:5 (247-249): Volatility Of Returns by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volatility Of Returns by John Sweeney
Designing a profitable trading system is key, but the way that profits and losses vary can have an impact on your long-term success. Here's why looking at how the returns deviate can help you design your own system.
Traders spend a lot of time worrying about the proper trading signals. Then they think about stops, and sometimes they even worry abut exits. (Not to mention\ncomplementary trades, diversification and capital management.)
Hardly anyone, assessing his trading system, worries\ntoo much about its volatility. In most trading system evaluation software, volatility — the variability of the returns it provides — isn’t covered at all. Even so, volatility does have some unexpected impact on a system’s usefulness and therefore on your wealth at the end of the day. All things being equal, the system with the lower volatility will beat the system with higher volatility."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-247-249-volatility-of-returns-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-247-249-volatility-of-returns-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-247-249-volatility-of-returns-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c05-040matc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:5 (250-255): Matching Money Management With Trade Risk by Daryl Guppy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Matching Money Management With Trade Risk by Daryl Guppy
Manage your trades using technical analysis by identifying risk points as well as setting profit objectives. This Australia-based author shares some of his favorite techniques.
Most of us think trading is a rational process, but many private traders approach trading the same way that other people approach a wishing well. Those people throw money into the well, make a wish and wait for\ntheir wish to come true. In the same vein, some private traders throw money into the market and all they wish for is a profit. Sometimes the wish comes true, but most times, just like a wishing well, it is a waste of money and time. For traders using the market as a substitute for a wishing well, trading is a very emotional experience.
With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the way emotion interferes with good trading and at some of the ways that chart analysis can help us establish trading objectives more effectively."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-250-255-matching-money-management-with-trade-risk-by-daryl-guppy-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-250-255-matching-money-management-with-trade-risk-by-daryl-guppy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-250-255-matching-money-management-with-trade-risk-by-daryl-guppy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c05-041phas-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:5 (256-259): The Phase Method: 1998 by Christopher L. Cagan, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Phase Method: 1998 by Christopher L. Cagan, Ph.D.
Here's a unique technique to understand the cycles prevalent in the markets.
The broad movement of the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), tends to rise and fall on a roughly cyclic basis super-imposed on a long-term trend of growth. Here is a new method of analyzing these motions, called the phase method.
First, take the monthly Dow index and divide by a deflator (for our purposes here, the average of the Consumer Price Index [CPI] and Producer Price Index [PPI], with 1982-84 = 1.00 as the base period) to compute the real DJIA in constant dollars and remove the effect of paper inflation. Take the natural logarithm as the result, to be called LNRLDOW. This series works on a logarithmic or percentage basis, so a motion from 1,000 to 2,000 has the same magnitude as a motion from 2,000 to 4,000 (Figure 1)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-256-259-the-phase-method-1998-by-christopher-l-cagan-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-256-259-the-phase-method-1998-by-christopher-l-cagan-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-256-259-the-phase-method-1998-by-christopher-l-cagan-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v165letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:5: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
This month's letters discuss \""The New Gann Swing Chartist\"" by Robert Krausz, provide an introductory reading list of technical analysis books, and author Jeffrey Owen Katz replies to a reader's inquiries into seeming misconceptions in his July 1997 article “Evaluating trading systems with statistics.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-5-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c06-043muta-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:6 (265-272): Mutated Variables Volatility And A New Market Paradigm by Walter T. Downs, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Mutated Variables Volatility And A New Market Paradigm by Walter T. Downs, Ph.D.
Markets move through phases during which volatility fluctuates. Here's how to measure the shifts in volatility and then use that data as a filter for a trading system.
Market structure has undergone numerous changes in the past 10 years. A new market paradigm appears to have developed as a result of these changes, and also\nas a result, common variables in the market appear to have changed and are currently having an impact on technical forecasting tools. The concept of variable mutation can be used to analyze market movement. But first, some basic definitions are in order.
The first term is trending structure. This market structure is defined by a primary trend, with smaller retracements considered to be pullbacks within the larger trend. System and indicator signals are generated on breakouts of a defined range, or retracements within a larger trend phase."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-265-272-mutated-variables-volatility-and-a-new-market-paradigm-by-walter-t-downs-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-265-272-mutated-variables-volatility-and-a-new-market-paradigm-by-walter-t-downs-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-265-272-mutated-variables-volatility-and-a-new-market-paradigm-by-walter-t-downs-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c06-044trad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:6 (273-276): Trading And The Senses by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading And The Senses by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Successful trading requires a mind balanced between intellect and intuition. Here are some ideas toward developing a balanced mental approach to trading.
One of the Market Wizards once told me that he covered his walls with commodity bar charts and went over each chart, bar by bar. Then he would study the waves of each market until he knew them so well that someone could bring out a chart and he could tell you which commodity it was from. This exercise allowed him to feel the probability of market movement in the future.
It was not an intellectual understanding that allowed this great trader to predict future market movement, but one stemming from his senses. He truly understood his subject."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-273-276-trading-and-the-senses-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-273-276-trading-and-the-senses-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-273-276-trading-and-the-senses-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c06-045syst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:6 (277-284): On System Development Part 1 by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""On System Development Part 1 by Mark Vakkur, M.D.
Here's one for the first-time developer of a trading system, or someone who's thinking about developing a system. Here are the basic steps this author took to develop a system for the stock market.
Successful trading is nothing more than systematically putting the odds in your favor. Our only guide to the future is the past; the trader must hunt down historical associations and hope they continue\nto hold true. These associations can be as simple as the idea that a close above a rising moving average\ntends to be followed by higher prices or as complex as a DeMark countdown. Moving from an observation to a viable trading system, however, requires a rigorous process of system development. I will illustrate the development of a simple system for the stock market based on a combination of three variables that have been shown to be highly profitable when used alone — seasonality; the Presidential election year cycle; and the relationship between the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond and its six-month moving average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-277-284-on-system-development-part-1-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-277-284-on-system-development-part-1-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-277-284-on-system-development-part-1-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c06-046euro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:6 (285-290): Trading Monthly Eurodollars by Scott W. Barrie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Monthly Eurodollars by Scott W. Barrie
Traders tend to be more interested in trading short time frames than long ones, but a longer one can be of value as well. Here's a simple technical system based on monthly Eurodollar charts for entry and exit signals.
A tool often overlooked in trading futures is the monthly chart. Monthly charts present a clear picture of the trend, be it up, down or sideways. The price trend shown on monthly charts are the moves that as traders, we all wish we could participate in. However, most traders lack the patience and discipline necessary to\nstay with a long-term position. The true beauty of the monthly chart lies in that it allows the trader to see the forest through the trees. The day-to-day noise of the markets is filtered by the monthly high-low-close bars, and patterns are more easily discernible than they are in other, shorter-term, charts. But this picture is a relative one, as the distance between support and resistance levels is too wide in most monthly charts; too much risk could be involved.
So for many, the monthly chart is considered an interesting anomaly but without practical use in trading. The monthly chart can be useful in trading, however, with the proper choice of markets and a solid trading plan."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-285-290-trading-monthly-eurodollars-by-scott-w-barrie-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-285-290-trading-monthly-eurodollars-by-scott-w-barrie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-285-290-trading-monthly-eurodollars-by-scott-w-barrie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c06-046int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:6 (291-298): Michael Sheimo On Dow Theory by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Michael Sheimo On Dow Theory by Thom Hartle
Take a look around: Technology is changing the face of trading and investing before your very eyes. Computers, information acquisition and trading are all getting faster and faster, sometimes at breath-taking speeds. The world of tomorrow is here today, in the form of technology. Is there still room for the classic approaches, such as Dow theory? To find out, Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Michael Sheimo, author of Cashing In On The Dow, Stock Market Rules, and Dow Theory Redux, by phone on March 24, 1998. Here's what this noted author had to say about using this classic technique today.
Q: How did you start out in the business?
A: I was a stockbroker, first with Merrill Lynch and then with Olde Financial Corp. When I worked for Olde, we would get a lot of questions, from individual investors and investors who were daily technical traders both, who would watch the market go up and down, and they would need to have certain points clarified about why the market acted the way it did.
Q: How did you get interested in the Dow theory?
A: Before I became a broker, I had studied Dow theory as an individual investor. And ultimately, after having had to answer all those questions from the investors, I decided to write a basic book about Dow theory and other stock market indicators. It was a book designed to show where the theory originated, how it has evolved, and why it continues to be relevant."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-291-298-michael-sheimo-on-dow-theory-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-291-298-michael-sheimo-on-dow-theory-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-291-298-michael-sheimo-on-dow-theory-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c06-048rang-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:6 (299-301): Trading Ranges With Moving Averages by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Ranges With Moving Averages by John Sweeney
Using simple moving averages may seem like a straightforward approach to trading, but there are subtle techniques that can improve performance.
A few months ago, I pointed out that moving averages are neat boundaries for trending action. Short-term averages are also handy for finding yourself in a trading range. How can that be, you ask? Usually, averages are curses for their behavior in a trading range. Those who use them to enter trends find themselves trading in and out rapidly, usually losing money in the process. By the very nature of moving averages, the delay built into them make for bad decisions — a trend-entry trade — when, in fact, prices have found a level and are simply oscillating around it. You end up going long or short just as prices head down or back up into the range.
However, you can turn this behavior to achieve your own ends by observing that the very characteristic of an average in a trend is that it is not crossed by price. In an uptrend, it’s below price and in a downtrend, it’s above price. If price has crossed your trending average (Figure 1, point 1), your antenna goes up. Here is the first indication that a trading range is forming, not that a new trend is taking place. Perhaps support and resistance have been hit and price is about to start fluctuating in a relatively fixed area. Just in case this is so, label the crossing “1” and the previous low (or high, if you were trending long instead of short) “2.”"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-299-301-trading-ranges-with-moving-averages-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-299-301-trading-ranges-with-moving-averages-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-6-299-301-trading-ranges-with-moving-averages-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c07-050chnl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:7 (307-317): Channel Analysis by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Channel\nAnalysis by Thom Hartle
A market does not move in a straight line; instead, its\nmovement travels across the chart in peaks and\nvalleys, forming a channel in the direction of the\ntrend. Early identification of the channels can give\nyou important information, including that the trend\nhas changed direction, what the profit objectives are\nand risk points.
As computers and technical\nanalysis software become\nmore and more sophisticated,\nthere is an increasing\nreliance by traders on using\nindicators for trading signals.\nThis focus on using\ntechnical indicators for developing\ntrading systems is a reasonable step, but\nalong the way, a certain craft, using simple price\ncharts to gauge what a market is doing, has been lost.
But why the movement away from chart analysis?\nOnce more, the answer centers around simplicity;\ntraders have found that, much to their delight, indicators\nare easy to program, modify and design trading\nsystems around. There is an additional appeal, because\nmost indicators can smooth the price action and\nhave specified range limits such as zero to 100. This\nfeature gives the trader the sense that noise has been\nfiltered from the markets. The apparent moment-to-moment\nrandomness in a market is due to the market\nparticipants therein acting in the marketplace for\ntheir own diverse reasons. The result? The underlying\nprice trends are clouded by the impact of these\ntraders. As a result, traders have grown dependent upon indicators that filter the price action and produce\nreliable trading signals."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-307-317-channel-analysis-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-307-317-channel-analysis-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-307-317-channel-analysis-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c07-051secu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:7 (318-323): Secure Fractional Money Management by L. Zamansky, Ph.D., and D. Stendahl"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Secure Fractional\nMoney Management\nby Leo J. Zamansky, Ph.D., and David C. Stendahl
Here's how to find a new fractional value of capital to invest\nin every trade to maximize returns subject to a constraint on\ndrawdown, using a variation of the optimal f money management\nstrategy.
Over the past four years, we have\ndeveloped and applied evaluation\nsoftware to trading systems\nthat use money management\ntechniques and have studied\nthe impact of these techniques\non trading systems. A\nnew money management strategy\ncalled secure f is one of the\noutcomes of that work, and\nhere, we will demonstrate how\nto find a new fractional value of capital to invest in every trade\nto maximize returns subject to a constraint on drawdown.
Secure f can be a conservative strategy or an aggressive\none, depending on the level of acceptable maximum drawdown\nselected by the trader in question. It is a modification\nof the optimal f strategy that was introduced by Ralph Vince\nin his Portfolio Management Formulas. Secure f differs from\noptimal f because it takes historical drawdowns into account\nand uses information about the prices of the underlying\nsecurity.
OPTIMAL F
Optimal f is a money management strategy that can be used\nto improve and maximize system performance by finding the\nbest percent of capital to invest in each trade. This strategy\ndetermines which percent of equity invested in a trade would\nhave yielded the highest return based on a sequence of past\ntrades. Because traders are able to employ a variety of money\nmanagement strategies, it can be useful to know what would\nhave been the optimal amount to invest in each case.\nThe concept of percent or fractional strategy itself comes\nfrom the Kelly formula, which estimates the percentage of\nyour capital to trade when the amounts won and lost are not\nequal:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-318-323-secure-fractional-money-management-by-l-zamansky-ph-d-and-d-stendahl-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-318-323-secure-fractional-money-management-by-l-zamansky-ph-d-and-d-stendahl-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-318-323-secure-fractional-money-management-by-l-zamansky-ph-d-and-d-stendahl-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c07-052stop-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:7 (324-328): Barrier Stops And Trendlines by J. Katz, Ph.D., and D. McCormick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Barrier Stops\nAnd\nTrendlines by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick
Last time, Katz and McCormick measured the performance\nof using this strategy as an exit rule. This time, we examine the\neffect of eliminating entries that would have been taken in\ninstances where the trendline stop was farther than $1,250\naway from the entry price.
In recent articles, we experimented\nwith exits to determine\nwhether simple exit strategies\ncan improve the performance\nof a system with essentially\nrandom trade entries. We have\nexplored a strategy that involved\na profit target exit, a\nstop-loss exit and a time-based\nexit, and then examined the\nbehavior of trailing stops.\nThroughout these experiments, we used a standardized random\nentry system in which a random number generator\nprovided us with the entries into positions from which we\ncould exit. In all instances, we found that exit methods could\nsignificantly improve a system or ruin it, depending on\nwhether the strategies were correctly chosen and/or applied.\nFor example, stop-losses and profit targets of the wrong sizes,\nor incorrect parameters for trailing stops, can make a trading\nsystem perform significantly worse than it would otherwise. Finally, we found that while there is some interaction between\nthe two, overall, the behavior of exits seems to be\nrelatively unaffected by the entry methods employed."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-324-328-barrier-stops-and-trendlines-by-j-katz-ph-d-and-d-mccormick-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-324-328-barrier-stops-and-trendlines-by-j-katz-ph-d-and-d-mccormick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-324-328-barrier-stops-and-trendlines-by-j-katz-ph-d-and-d-mccormick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c07-053syst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:7 (329-335): On System Development; Part 2 by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""On System\nDevelopment Part 2\nby Mark Vakkur, M.D.
Last month, this author introduced the initial steps that\nsomeone, novice or veteran, should take when developing a\nstock market system. This time, he explains the final steps.
Last time, I posited that successful\ntrading consists of systematically\nputting the odds in your\nfavor. Since our only guide to\nthe future is the past, I showed\nhow the trader must find historical\nrelationships and apply\nthem to the markets going forward.\nI outlined four steps.\nFirst, historical data must be\ngathered; I used monthly closing\ndata of the Standard & Poor's 500 to illustrate. Second,\nthe data must be explored to discover relationships between\nvariables. The third step is to explore those relationships\nfurther by setting up a spreadsheet (or other comparable\nsoftware). The system developed in the article for illustrative\npurposes began with seasonality since the stock market, as\nmeasured by the S&P 500, makes most of its gains during\ncertain months, especially the November–January period, the\nMarch–April period, and July. The worst month by average\nreturn from 1950 to 1995 is September, which is also the only\nmonth with a negative average return. Ignoring dividends, I\nillustrated this effect with the following simple systems:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-329-335-on-system-development-part-2-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-329-335-on-system-development-part-2-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-329-335-on-system-development-part-2-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c07-054int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:7 (336-343): Truth In Futures: John Hill by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Truth In Futures:\nJohn Hill
John Hill started out in the business of trading commodities in a most\nremarkable way when he managed to run $1,000 up to $80,000 in a matter of\nthree months - and then managed to lose all but $5,000 in a single day. Some\ntraders would hang up their charts after that, but Hill was determined to\nunderstand what he'd done wrong. It took years of study, but he figured it out.\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Hill via telephone on\nApril 23, 1998, asking him about Futures Truth, the publication he has\nproduced since the 1970s; why novices could benefit from mechanical sys-tems;\nand what details are important to fairly evaluate the performance of a\nsystem.
The best systems are the ones with the fewest parameters.\nYou can go berserk putting in parameters. The systems that\nhave withstood the test of time have very few parameters\nand very simple methods. - John Hill"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-336-343-truth-in-futures-john-hill-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-336-343-truth-in-futures-john-hill-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-336-343-truth-in-futures-john-hill-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c07-055vola-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:7 (344-348): A Volatility Trade In Gold by David S. Landry"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Volatility\nTrade In Gold\nby David S. Landry, CTA
Large moves often follow low-volatility environments. Here's\none method of combining volatility indicators and pattern\nrecognition along with trend-following methods to capture a\nbreakout in the 1997 gold futures market.
A simple review of a market chart\nwill illustrate that markets trade\nin periods of lackluster sideways\nprice action and then\nabruptly adjust to new conditions\nby trending to another price\nlevel. The goal of many traders\nis to trade these short-term trends\nprofitably. Technical analysis\ncan aid you in identifying potential trades based on the\nconcept of the market moving from trading ranges to trends.\nTo demonstrate, I'll walk you through a trade in the gold\nmarket based on a set of technical indicators.
First, let me define the formulas I used for my analysis (see\nsidebar \""Formulas\"" for the calculations). Having set up my\nindicators, let’s walk through the steps for making a trade.
The first step is tracking volatility. To measure volatility, I\nused four-, six- and 10-day historical volatility indicators inspired\nby the volatility work of Larry Connors. I added two additional indicators to the historical volatility indicators. I ran\nan average of the three by adding each of the four-, six- and 10-\nday historical indicators together, dividing by 3, then calculating\na 12-day exponential moving average (EMA) of that result."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-344-348-a-volatility-trade-in-gold-by-david-s-landry-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-344-348-a-volatility-trade-in-gold-by-david-s-landry-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-344-348-a-volatility-trade-in-gold-by-david-s-landry-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c07-056pred-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:7 (349-351): Predicting The Market With Earnings Per Share by Randall J. Covill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Predict The Market With\nEarnings Per Share\nby Randall J. Covill
Take a look at the relationship between changes in earnings\nper share for each year and the performance of the market for\nthe following year. Is there a correlation?
One of Benjamin Graham's investment\nclassics, The Intelligent\nInvestor, has a chapter in\nwhich he discusses a comparison\nof the change in average\nstock earnings and the change\nin average stock prices. Intrigued,\nI decided to graph and\ncalculate a linear correlation\ncoefficient for the actual level\nin average stock earnings for\nthe Standard & Poor's 500 versus the actual level in average\nstock prices for the S&P 500 in five-year intervals from 1930\nto 1970, as reported by Graham.
My results can be seen in Figure 1; the linear correlation\ncoefficient is 92.78%. From this, I inferred that changes in average\nearnings per share over five years might be a good predictor of\naverage changes in stock prices over the next five years."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-349-351-predicting-the-market-with-earnings-per-share-by-randall-j-covill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-349-351-predicting-the-market-with-earnings-per-share-by-randall-j-covill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-349-351-predicting-the-market-with-earnings-per-share-by-randall-j-covill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c07-057tria-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:7 (352-355): Triangles by David Vomund"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Triangles\nby David Vomund\nStock prices tend to move in trends. When an existing trend\nends, a classic technical pattern known as a triangle often\ndevelops. Here's how to make use of this pattern in the\nstock market.
When an existing trend is in the\nprocess of ending, there is typically\nsome backing and filling,\nduring which a classic\ntechnical pattern referred to as\na triangle often develops.\nThere are many variations of\nthis pattern, but here, we will\nconcentrate on two variations:\nthe right triangle and the symmetrical\ntriangle.
THE RIGHT TRIANGLE
The right triangle pattern exhibits a series of narrower price\nfluctuations. On one side of the fluctuation, the boundary of\nprice action is horizontal. On the other side, prices fluctuate\ntoward the horizontal boundary. An ascending triangle is a\nright triangle with a horizontal top and an ascending bottom.\nA descending triangle is the reverse.
To illustrate, let's look at Smith International [SII] in\nFigure 1. Early in 1997, SII began to form an ascending\ntriangle. The resistance† level was at $49 and the stock sold\noff every time it reached this point, yet each selloff was smaller than the previous one. Now, remember that a trendline\nis drawn at the extremes of a pattern. For each trendline, at\nleast two price points must be connected before the stock\nbreaks out. In early May, SII was able to clear that resistance\nhurdle, which was the buy point."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-352-355-triangles-by-david-vomund-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-352-355-triangles-by-david-vomund-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-7-352-355-triangles-by-david-vomund-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c08-059term-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:8 (359-366): Building studies based on psychological matrices by Walter T. Downs"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here’s how the psychological terms that technicians\nemploy to describe the markets are transformed into\ntechnical tools.
It is possible to transform psychology\nfrom a subjective interpretation\ninto an objective tool. By creating\na psychological matrix, we\ncan define emotion so that you never\nthink of fear and greed in quite the\nsame way again. Accurate\nconceptualization and logical construction of the matrix\nallows a trader to develop a market edge. In addition,\nbecause the trader has a good understanding of each\nphase of the market as it unfolds, he or she is able to\napproach trading from a more reasoned perspective.\nA market edge must be based on the accurate\nunderstanding of the difference between statistics\nand knowledge. Statistics represent numerical data\nassembled and classified so as to present significant\ninformation, while knowledge, for the purposes of\nthe psychological matrix builder, is defined as the\nownership of valuable information and the ability to\ncorrectly analyze and use it.\nIn this respect, statistics will serve as our mile-stones,\nand the observation of psychological traits of\nhumans, combined with statistical measurement, will\nprovide the knowledge we need to build a road map\nof the markets. By observing how people react to\nmarket stimuli, a trader gains knowledge to lead and\ndefine statistical action. Of key importance is that this\nis the difference between describing what has occurred\non the left side of the chart and accurately\nassessing what may happen on the right."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-359-366-building-studies-based-on-psychological-matrices-by-walter-t-downs-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-359-366-building-studies-based-on-psychological-matrices-by-walter-t-downs-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-359-366-building-studies-based-on-psychological-matrices-by-walter-t-downs-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c08-060basi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:8 (367-374): Basic Options Techniques by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Many stock traders and investors avoid options because they seem too complex or risky. Although it is very easy to lose large amounts of money in a very short time misusing options, investors and traders of all kinds should at least consider them as one of many tools to exploit market opportunities. Here's a primer on using options, with common terms and applications of options strategies.
Although a thorough discussion\nof options is impossible in the\nspace of a single article, it is\nimportant to introduce a few\nbasics. There are, if nothing else,\ntwo outstanding but little-used\noptions strategies for the markets\nthat should be discussed —\nbuying deep-in-the-money call\noptions as a proxy for purchasing the stock and selling\noptions against that position to create a high-probability,\nhigh-return alternative to conventional covered-callÝ writ-ing.\nThe paradox of these strategies is that despite their\nreputation as being risky, they can be less risky than buying\nthe underlying while offering all, if not more, of the potential\nreturn."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-367-374-basic-options-techniques-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-367-374-basic-options-techniques-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-367-374-basic-options-techniques-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c08-061day-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:8 (375-378): Daytrading Stocks by Mark Conway"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Many traders in the stock market are moving to short-term approaches and taking advantage of today's technology. Here's a walk through the basics.
Welcome to the battlefield of electronic\ndaytrading. The confluence of technology\nand trading has created a network\nof daytraders with access to\nreal-time quotes, news and instantaneous\nexecutions. Of all markets that\ndaytraders have access to, NASDAQ\n(the North American Stock Dealers\nAutomated Quotation system) has\nemerged over the past several years as a primary trading arena.\nEach NASDAQ stock is represented by a group of market\nmakers and electronic communication networks (ECNs) that\ncompete for bids and offers. Market makers are represented\nby institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and\nMorgan Stanley. ECNs are private trading networks that are\noffered to the public through a limited number of brokers.\nThese brokers give traders access to the Small Order Execution\nSystem (SOES) — Instinet, SelectNet, the Island and others."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-375-378-daytrading-stocks-by-mark-conway-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-375-378-daytrading-stocks-by-mark-conway-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-375-378-daytrading-stocks-by-mark-conway-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c08-062stat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:8 (379-382): Statistics And Trading Behavior by Ari Kiev and Ken Grant"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Use statistics to profile patterns of trading behavior as part of an ongoing training program to help traders maximize their performance.
Traders have habits and beliefs\nthat have significant impact on\ntheir trading, whether they realize\nit or not. Introducing a trans-action-\nlevel database, though\ndesigned primarily for risk management,\nmakes it possible to\nidentify and examine specific\nand measurable patterns of trading\nbehavior. The database, which we use in our weekly\ntrading seminars, has enabled us to identify characteristics of\nthose traders who are successful and those who are not. It has\nalso led us to a greater understanding of the behavioral\ncomponents of winning strategies and how to help traders\nimprove their performance.\nA variety of data is routinely collected in a relational\ndatabase of historical information. The data includes such\ninformation as the security traded, the buy/sell indicator, the\nposition initiation, liquidation indicator, price, quality and so\nforth. Other information such as asset class, trading instru-ment\n(cash security, option, future, forward), market sector,\ninstrument volatility, beta or other benchmark correlation\nstatistics and average daily number can be superimposed on\nthe database."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-379-382-statistics-and-trading-behavior-by-ari-kiev-and-ken-grant-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-379-382-statistics-and-trading-behavior-by-ari-kiev-and-ken-grant-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-379-382-statistics-and-trading-behavior-by-ari-kiev-and-ken-grant-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c08-063prox-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:8 (383-386): A Duration Proxy For Stock Portfolios by George R. Arrington, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Duration, used in fixed-income portfolios to measure risk associated with changes in interest rates, is applied here to measure the risk of a stock portfolio.
The duration statistic has proved\nto be a valuable risk indicator\nfor fixed-income portfolios.\nDuration gives an indication of\nhow sensitive a portfolio is to\nchanges in interest rates. A bond\nportfolio with a five-year duration\nwould be expected to lose\n5% of its value if interest rates\nrise by one percentage point, or\ngain 5% if interest rates fall by one percentage point. Dura-tion\nalso provides a benchmark for comparing the relative\nsensitivity of fixed-income portfolios. A portfolio with a\nduration of 10 years is twice as volatile as a portfolio with a duration of five years. See sidebar, “Calculating duration,” on how fixed-income duration is computed; Figure 1 illustrates the concept."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-383-386-a-duration-proxy-for-stock-portfolios-by-george-r-arrington-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-383-386-a-duration-proxy-for-stock-portfolios-by-george-r-arrington-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-383-386-a-duration-proxy-for-stock-portfolios-by-george-r-arrington-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c08-064int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:8 (387-393): On The Bull Market Of the Century: Louise Yamada by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The bull market of the end of the 20th century has been going on for some time now. How did this happen, and how much longer is it going to last? To get some answers, we turned to Louise Yamada of Salomon Smith Barney, whose recent book, Market Magic: Riding The Greatest Bull Market Of The Century, shed some light on the situation. Yamada, who is senior technical analyst and director of research at Salomon Smith Barney, is responsible for sector analysis of the US and global markets. Stocks & Commodities Editor Thom Hartle talked to Yamada via phone on May 26, 1998, asking her what her long-term views are for the stock market, inflation and interest rates. By Thom Hartle"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-387-393-on-the-bull-market-of-the-century-louise-yamada-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-387-393-on-the-bull-market-of-the-century-louise-yamada-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-387-393-on-the-bull-market-of-the-century-louise-yamada-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c08-inter-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:8 (394): Subscribing to Lists Over the Internet"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Readers often ask how they can get in touch with other traders to discuss trading ideas. In this age of electronic communication, one way to connect with other traders is through the Internet, by subscribing to E-mail-based \""lists.\"" The following information, provided by our Technical Editor and resident Inernet surfer, will get you started."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-394-subscribing-to-lists-over-the-internet-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-394-subscribing-to-lists-over-the-internet-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-8-394-subscribing-to-lists-over-the-internet-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c09-066bond3-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:9 (399-409): The Bond Futures Noise Channel-2 Breakout System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Bond Futures Noise Channel-2 Breakout System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Here’s how to develop a system using a filter to\nremove the random price movement and identify the\ntrend of the Treasury bond market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-399-409-the-bond-futures-noise-channel-2-breakout-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-399-409-the-bond-futures-noise-channel-2-breakout-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-399-409-the-bond-futures-noise-channel-2-breakout-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c09-067perc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:9 (410-419): Using Percentage-Based Back-Adjusted Data by Enrico Donner, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""A continuous data series for remodeling a futures trading system can be created in a number of ways. Here's a new method that uses a percentage-based back-adjusted technique to ensure that profits and losses from a trading system are equivalent over time on a percentage basis.
As a rule, the results of any trading\nsystem are evaluated in terms\nof dollar returns. This means\nthat a $10,000 loss on the Standard\n& Poor’s 500 futures contract\nis considered simply to be\na $10,000 loss, without taking\ninto account the period in which\nthe loss has occurred. As an example,\nin August 1982, the S&P was trading around 110\npoints (Figure 1), at a face value amount of $55,000. At that\ntime, assuming a single point of the S&P contract was the\nequivalent of $500, a $10,000 loss meant an 18.18% loss\nexpressed in terms of percentage returns. On the other hand,\n15 years later, in August 1997, the same $10,000 loss would\nhave turned out to be a 2.10% loss (the S&P was trading\naround 950 points, or at a $475,000 face value). The 20-point\nloss that would have been defined as just a bad trade in 1997\nwould have destroyed your trading career in 1982."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-410-419-using-percentage-based-back-adjusted-data-by-enrico-donner-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-410-419-using-percentage-based-back-adjusted-data-by-enrico-donner-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-410-419-using-percentage-based-back-adjusted-data-by-enrico-donner-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c09-068path-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:9 (420-424): The Path Less Traded by Scott Brown"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Good trading is as much a state of mind as it is a set of procedures.
Novice traders will find it hard to\nsurvive, let alone flourish, unless\nthey learn to think and act\nin an appropriate manner. This\nmeans developing mental models\nand behavioral rules in a\ncareful and deliberate fashion\nbefore entering the market. And\nit is this careful, deliberate planning\nand reflection that makes the difference between long-term\nprofit and loss. It would be wise to develop an appreciation\nfor trading fields that are less known to the public but far\nmore profitable than the beaten path."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-420-424-the-path-less-traded-by-scott-brown-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-420-424-the-path-less-traded-by-scott-brown-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-420-424-the-path-less-traded-by-scott-brown-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c09-069trnd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:9 (425-427): Trading the Trend by Andrew Abraham"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here's a volatility indicator, presented with simple trend rules for trading various markets.
New traders quickly become\nfamilar with two adages: “The\ntrend is your friend,” and “Let\nyour profits run and cut your\nlosses.” Many of us, however,\nhave learned the hard way that\nthese things are easier said than\ndone. Why is that? One reason\nis lack of recognition, since the\ntrend itself is rarely clarified\nand defined, let alone where it\nstarts and ends. So we need a clear explication of what a trend is as well as where its beginning and its end are."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-425-427-trading-the-trend-by-andrew-abraham-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-425-427-trading-the-trend-by-andrew-abraham-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-425-427-trading-the-trend-by-andrew-abraham-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c09-070avgs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:9 (428-433): Moving Averages with Resistance and Support by Dennis L. Tilley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving averages are a popular way to signal trends. Combine moving averages and the classic chart analysis of support and resistance for trading mutual funds.
Most simple moving average systems\nrequire one or two additional\nconfirmation signals to\navoid excessive whipsaw trades.\nSuch confirmation signals can\nbe based on features of moving\naverages such as the crossover\nof multiple moving averages or\nthe reversal of the moving average\nslope. Momentum, volatility, volume and other\nnontrend indicators can also serve to confirm moving average\nbuy and sell signals.\nIn an effort to develop simple and robust stock and mutual\nfund trading systems, I have found that combining the simple\nmoving average (SMA) with the concept of resistance and\nsupport very effective. Here is a mechanical system for\ncombining these two tried-and-true tools to provide a robust,\nminimal-whipsaw, intermediate-term mutual fund trading\nsystem. I have used this system successfully for about four\nyears to switch emerging markets funds and small-cap funds\nto and from a Standard & Poor’s 500 index fund and/or a\nmoney market fund."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-428-433-moving-averages-with-resistance-and-support-by-dennis-l-tilley-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-428-433-moving-averages-with-resistance-and-support-by-dennis-l-tilley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-428-433-moving-averages-with-resistance-and-support-by-dennis-l-tilley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c09-071int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.16:9 (434-442): Henry Pruden of Golden State University by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Henry Pruden, who heads up Golden Gate University's Institute of Technical Market Analysis, mixes the classic technical methods with the new and promising ones. S&C spoke with him to find out what he has to say about technical analysis making inroads on respectability in academia.
How did you first become\ninterested in technical\nanalysis?
In 1974, while I was\nteaching at the University of Texas at\nAustin, I invested in the stock market.\nUnfortunately, I lost more money in my\nportfolio that year than I was earning.\nSo I looked into the study of securities\nand realized something: My colleagues\nfrom the school of finance were lost.\nThey were relying on an economic\nmodel that had long been discredited;\nthe market had outgrown it. When I\nstarted looking around for methodology\nwith which to analyze the market, I\ngravitated to technical analysis.
\nWhy?
Because technical analysis is based\non the realistic assumption that people\nare motivated by their emotions, as well\nas accounting for the group influence at\nwork. That’s how I originally became\ninterested in technical analysis. Later, I\nleft full-time academia and moved out\nto San Francisco, but in the back of my\nmind, I still liked teaching — but I\ndidn’t want just to teach marketing,\nwhich is what I had been doing."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-434-442-henry-pruden-of-golden-state-university-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-434-442-henry-pruden-of-golden-state-university-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-16-9-434-442-henry-pruden-of-golden-state-university-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v113multimfr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1 (13-22): Multiple Time Frame Trading Using Swing Channels by Robert Krausz, MH, BCHE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Multiple Time Frame Using Swing Robert Krausz, who was featured in Jack Schwager’s\nNew Market Wizards, follows up his previous article\non the new Gann swing chartist with a detailed\npresentation on using channels for setting up trading\nopportunities.
In my previous article on dy-namic\nmultiple time frames, I\nintroduced one of my own ap-proaches\nto trading: The con-cept\nof multiple time frame trad-ing.\nThe essence of the strategy\nis easy: Use the higher time frame\nprice activity to define the trad-able\ntrend as well as potential\nsupport and resistance levels. For example, if you are\ntrading the Treasury bond futures contract and you\nfollow the market using 50-minute bars, then look to\nthe daily bar’s activity to indicate the trend and\nsupport and resistance levels.\nThe same idea applies if you are trading a stock on\na daily basis — say, Microsoft — in which case, the\nweekly bars will be the basis for the trend as well as\nthe important support and resistance points. That is\nthe foundation of multiple time frame trading.\nBesides the effectiveness of using a method based\non a multiple time frame approach, another advan-tage\nis the method need not be complicated. A trader\ncan make his or her method as simple or as compli-cated\nas desired. For me, though, the simpler the\napplication, the better the results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-13-22-multiple-time-frame-trading-using-swing-channels-by-robert-krausz-mh-bche-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-13-22-multiple-time-frame-trading-using-swing-channels-by-robert-krausz-mh-bche-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-13-22-multiple-time-frame-trading-using-swing-channels-by-robert-krausz-mh-bche-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v123seasadof,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1 (23-26): Seasonal Adjustment Of Time Series Data by George R. Arrington, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Seasonal Adjustment\nOf Time Series Data
by George R. Arrington, Ph.D.
\nWhile time series data is the heart of most technical trading\nsystems, some have a tendency to reflect seasonal patterns;\nfor example, agricultural commodities tend to follow harvest\ncycles. Here’s how to adjust data to see nonseasonal patterns\nmore clearly.
Time series data, which is data\nsuch as most price and volume\ndata collected sequentially over\ntime and usually at fixed inter-vals,\nis the basic fuel for most\ntechnical trading systems. As\nnew data becomes available, it\nis used to recalculate the value\nof technical indicators. This, in\nturn, may trigger a trading sig-nal.\nTime series data often con-tains\na bias that reflects sea-sonal\npatterns; for example, prices of agricultural commodi-ties\ntend to follow harvest cycles and seasonal patterns of\nconsumption. Many other economic variables, such as em-ployment,\nmoney supply, heating oil demand, and sales of\nnew automobiles, also exhibit significant seasonal variation.
Often, it is easy to understand why these seasonal varia-tions\noccur, but they make it difficult to analyze and under-stand\nthe time series data. If the price of a wheat futures\ncontract goes down by 10 cents during August, for instance,\nit would be helpful to know how much of that drop can be\nattributed to normal seasonal patterns and how much can be\nattributed to other factors.
If we use time series data as part of a technical trading\nsystem or to analyze trends, we may want to separate the\nnormal seasonal variation to see nonseasonal patterns more\nclearly. This process is known as seasonal adjustment. Many\nwidely published economic statistics, such as the unemploy-ment\nrate and the consumer price index (CPI), are seasonally\nadjusted before being published."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-23-26-seasonal-adjustment-of-time-series-data-by-george-r-arrington-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-23-26-seasonal-adjustment-of-time-series-data-by-george-r-arrington-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-23-26-seasonal-adjustment-of-time-series-data-by-george-r-arrington-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v127tactradb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1 (27-37): The Tactical Trader by Walter T. Downs"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Tactical\nTrader
by Walter T. Downs
Trading can be compared to the game of chess — a good\nplayer wins by implementing a tactical strategy that entails\nsacrifices when the sacrifice is justified. Here, a professional\ntrader presents some tactical trading concepts.
In chess, a good player is able to\naccurately assess his position\non the board and gauge the psychological\nmettle of his opponent.\nVictory is gained by\nimplementing a positional and/\nor tactical strategy. Positional\nstrategy is the accumulation of\nsmall advantages in terrain and\nthe positioning of available\nforces in advantageous locations.\nTactical play is a direct\nassault on the opposing army, usually highlighted by sacrificial\ncombinations in which the attacking player is willing to\ngive up certain material in order to gain a decisive advantage.\nTrading is like chess. In trading, a long-term trader can be\nthought of as a positional strategist. He builds a strong\nposition and holds it for an extended period. Short-term\ntraders, in contrast, are the tacticians of the marketplace.\nTheir methods often revolve around a short-term sacrifice of\nequity in the expectation of gaining an advantage sufficient\nto gain back the equity risked as well as a reasonable and\nconsistent profit. Here are some key strategic issues for\ntactical short-term traders.
THE TACTICAL TRADER
Strangely, many short-term traders take risks that a chess\ntactician never would. The chess tactician is more than\nwilling to sacrifice material, but only when he is able to\ncalculate that the sacrifice is justified.\nOf key importance to short-term traders is the realization\nthat tactical combinations -- sacrifices of equity -- are only\nas good as the strategic validity of the calculations used (see\nsidebar, “Statistical paradigms”). With this in mind, we can\ndesign a four-part strategic guideline to ensure that we have\nmet the requirements necessary to validate a tactical market\nplay:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-27-37-the-tactical-trader-by-walter-t-downs-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-27-37-the-tactical-trader-by-walter-t-downs-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-27-37-the-tactical-trader-by-walter-t-downs-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v138innatofm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1 (38-42): Interview: The Nature Of The Market Is Change: Bruce Kamich by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Nature Of The Market Is Change:\nBruce Kamich
Technicians follow numerous markets, and some specialize in specific areas,\nsuch as equities or fixed income. With the Treasury bond yields recently hitting\nlows that were unthinkable by most only a few years ago, we thought that\ntalking to a specialist in this area would be apropos. Meet Bruce Kamich, who\nis senior vice president for research, development and management of the\nelectronic financial information service MoneyWatch for McCarthy, Crisanti\n& Maffei, and currently, he’s on the board for the Market Technicians\nEducational Foundation. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle called\nKamich on October 14, 1998, and asked him about some of his favorite\nindicators, including the last-half-hour index, secondaries, and the confidence\nindex, and how he views the coming century and the changes it will bring.
Human psychology will always be the same. Greed and\nfear are still going to operate in the same way they always\nhave. We just have to determine different ways to measure\nit. — Bruce Kamich"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-38-42-interview-the-nature-of-the-market-is-change-bruce-kamich-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-38-42-interview-the-nature-of-the-market-is-change-bruce-kamich-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-38-42-interview-the-nature-of-the-market-is-change-bruce-kamich-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v143inshocby,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1 (43-45): In Shock by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""In Shock
by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Trading is unique in that the uncertainty of the markets\nbrings to bear an unusual stress level. What should you do if\nyour trading suddenly turns south, or worse, a tragic event\noccurs?
Recently, I was in an automobile\naccident when a cab driver sped\nthrough a four-way stop sign as\nI was entering the intersection.\nFor a spell, I felt lost in time. In\nthat moment of unreality, I even\nthought that it was all a dream.\nI was in shock.\nWhat is shock? According to\nthe dictionary, it can be a sudden,\njarring impact or the result of a disturbance in your\nequilibrium; it can also be the reaction to a strike with\nsurprise, terror, or horror.
Traumatic events can cause a state of shock. In the best of\nall circumstances, a person can go through life without one,\nbut such a utopian existence is unlikely. Since successful\ntrading depends on good performance, it is important that a\ntrader have plans in case of any disastrous event. Being\nunprepared could be very costly, both emotionally and financially.\nWhether it is the resulting shock from an accident or\nthe shock of realizing that your trading account has been\nwiped out by the markets and there’s nothing you can do\nabout it, it’s still the same: Disaster has occurred, and you\ncouldn’t control it.
LETTING GO
Immediately after the accident, I just sat in my car, trying to\nfigure out whether the next world war had started. A concerned\nface popped up and asked how I was. For a split\nsecond, I just wanted to say, “Obviously, I’m not okay!” But\nall I could say was, “I don’t know.” The one thing I did know,\nhowever, was that it was time for me to let others take control.\nWhen you are in a state of shock, it is the best time to make\nno choices, if possible. First, seek out a helpful person with\nwhom you feel comfortable and allow him or her to make\nimmediate decisions for you. When something disastrous has\nhappened in your trading and you are in a state of shock, you\nneed to know who you can trust to make the decisions that\nhave to be made. For me, it was the paramedics, the police and\nmy assistant."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-43-45-in-shock-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-43-45-in-shock-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-43-45-in-shock-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v146lifcycmo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1 (46-49): Life Cycle Model Of Crowd Behavior by Henry O. Pruden, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Life Cycle Model Of Crowd Behavior
by Henry O. Pruden, Ph.D.
For a large part of the past 30\nyears, the discipline of finance\nhas been under the aegis of the\nefficient market hypothesis.\nBut in recent years, enough\nanomalies have piled up, cracking\nits dominance of the field.\nAs a consequence, the arrival\nof new thinking to explain\nmarket behavior has warranted\nattention, and its name is behavioral\nfinance.
Behavioral finance proponents believe that markets reflect\nthe thoughts, emotions, and actions of normal people as\nopposed to the idealized economic investor underlying the\nefficient market school as well as fundamental analysis.\nBehavioral man may intend to be rational, but that rationality tends to be hampered by cognitive biases, emotional quirks,\nand social influences.
Behavioral finance uses psychology, sociology, and other\nbehavioral theories to explain and predict financial markets.\nIt also describes the behavior of investors and money managers.\nIn addition, it recognizes the roles that varying attitudes\nplay toward risk, framing of information, cognitive errors,\nself-control and lack thereof, regret in financial decision-making,\nand the influence of mass psychology.
Assumptions about the frailty of human rationality and the\nacceptance of such drives as fear and greed have long been\naccepted by students of technical analysis. Indeed, in his\nStock Market Behavior: The Technical Approach To Understanding\nWall Street, Harvey Krow classified technical analysis\nin the behaviorist school of thought."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-46-49-life-cycle-model-of-crowd-behavior-by-henry-o-pruden-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-46-49-life-cycle-model-of-crowd-behavior-by-henry-o-pruden-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-46-49-life-cycle-model-of-crowd-behavior-by-henry-o-pruden-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v150trianrev,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1 (50-54): Triangles: Reversal Or Continuation by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Triangles: Reversal\nOr Continuation
by Stuart Evens
Look at most any book on the subject of technical analysis,\nand you’ll come across triangles. These formations are usually\none of the first chart patterns that novice technicians study,\nand it deserves some examination.
Triangles are classified as reversal\npatterns in some reference\nworks, while they are described\nas continuation patterns in others.\nRobert Edwards and John\nMagee, in their Technical\nAnalysis Of Stock Trends, have\na chapter titled “Important Reversal\nPatterns — The Triangles.”\nJohn Murphy, on the\nother hand, in his Technical\nAnalysis Of The Futures Markets, has triangles as a subheading\nunder the chapter titled “Continuation Patterns.”
On reading these chapters on triangles, however, we find\nthat both works instruct the reader about triangles behaving\nas both reversal and continuation patterns. What is common\nto both discussions, and in fact most discussions on triangles,\nis that once triangles are properly identified, subsequent price\naction tends to react in predictable ways. What technicians\nhave found over the years is that after prices break out of the triangle pattern, it is highly probable that prices will continue\nmoving in that direction. Knowing this gives us the opportunity\nto trade in that direction, and to profit if we are correct.
Let’s take a look at the different types of triangles, how\nthey are formed, what they look like, and how to draw them\non the price chart. Then we’ll examine the subsequent behavior\nof the stock used as an example after prices break out of\nthe formation. Finally, we’ll see how we can use the triangle\nto make trades based on our interpretation of the chart;\nprofitable trades, if our assessment of the pattern is correct."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-50-54-triangles-reversal-or-continuation-by-stuart-evens-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-50-54-triangles-reversal-or-continuation-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-50-54-triangles-reversal-or-continuation-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v155supandre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1 (55-58): Support And Resistance by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Support And\nResistance
by Stuart Evens
Support and resistance are basic tools used by traders to\nidentify key reversal areas. Here’s a look at the basics of\nsupport and resistance levels and how to determine which\nlevels might be important in the future.
One premise of technical analysis\nis that stock prices are affected\nby support and resistance.\nAs those terms imply,\nsupport acts to keep a stock’s\nprice above a certain level,\nwhile resistance acts to keep a\nstock’s price below a certain\nlevel. In fact, once it has been\ndetermined that a price has acted\nas important support or resistance\nin the past, it is very likely\nthat a particular price will do so\nagain in the future. Drawing support and resistance lines on\nstock charts helps determine how significant they were in the\npast and how significant they might be again. If we find a\nstock trading toward one of these price levels, we can make\nsome reasonable predictions as to how the stock price might\nrespond. We can then make trading decisions based on this\nanticipated price action.
What are support and resistance, and why do they occur at\ndefinite price levels? What do they look like on price charts?\nTo help answer these questions, we will take a look at the\ncharts of stocks with clearly identifiable support and resistance\nlevels and draw the lines on the charts. Using the\ninformation we glean from doing so, we can estimate the\nprobability of these levels acting again as support or resistance\nwhen prices approach these levels.
But first, let us define some of these terms and look at what\ncauses the formation of support and resistance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-55-58-support-and-resistance-by-stuart-evens-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-55-58-support-and-resistance-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-55-58-support-and-resistance-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v159tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1 (59-61): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS’ TIPS
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed\nby various developers of technical analysis software to help\nreaders more easily implement some of the strategies presented.\nInternet users will also find these and some previous\nTraders’ Tips on our home page at http://www.traders.com.
TRADESTATION / SUPERCHARTS
Our focus this month in Traders’ Tips is on the cup-with-handle\nchart pattern that Rick Martinelli and Barry Hyman\nexplored in the October 1998 STOCKS & COMMODITIES in\n“Cup-with-handle and the computerized approach.” When\nall the criteria fall into place, this chart pattern really seems\nto pick out some nice bullish breakouts. I must caution you,\nthough, that as with most chart patterns, the cup-with-handle\nformation is subjective. In other words, the pattern defined\nfor the computer program may not recognize some legitimate\ncup-with-handle formations or may display a pattern where\none does not truly exist. Thus, in setting up the EasyLanguage\nindicator below, I have tried to strike a balance between the\ntwo extremes.
The name of the EasyLanguage indicator described here is\n“cup & handle.” When the indicator identifies a cup-with-handle\nformation, it will place the following characters on the\nchart for identification of the key points:\n
\nK: Beginning of the setup phase\nLS: Left-hand side of the cup formation\nRS: Right-hand side of the cup formation\nB: Bottom of the cup.\n
Once the key points have been identified, the indicator will\nalso plot a horizontal line at the level of the right-hand side of\nthe cup. The horizontal line will continue to plot until either\nthe upward price breakout occurs or the close falls below the\nacceptable level. If an upward price breakout occurs, a red dot\nwill be plotted at the close (Figure 1).
This indicator will generate an alert for two situations. The\nfirst is when a valid cup-with-handle formation has been\nidentified. The second is when a price breakout above the\nright-hand side of the cup formation has occurred. “AlrtLen,”\nthe only input for this indicator, determines the number of\nbars after the occurrence of either of the two above criteria\nthat an alert will be generated.
To create the cup-with-handle indicator, you can use the\nfollowing EasyLanguage code:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-59-61-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-59-61-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-59-61-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v142volstops,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:10 (427-432): The Volatility Stop System by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Volatility Stop System
Here’s a step-by-step through the development of a\nrobust trading system for capturing major market\nmoves.
Volatility systems have a long\nand honored history in technical\ntrading. Here, I’ll show you\na simple, robust version you\ncan use on a weekly basis. I\ninclude code in a sidebar and\nshow the results of optimizing\nthe system for the Dow Jones Industrial Average\n(DJIA), some stocks, and some mutual funds. The\nresults are good across the board.\nThe most robust systems adapt themselves to the\nmarket or security being traded. One indicator particularly\nwell suited to the intermediate-term trader\nor investor is what I refer to as the volatility stop. The\nvolatility stop is based on the idea that a trading stop\nshould be adjusted for an asset’s volatility, here\nmeasured as the average true range. (For more on\ntrue range, see the sidebar.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-427-432-the-volatility-stop-system-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-427-432-the-volatility-stop-system-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-427-432-the-volatility-stop-system-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v143howprosu,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:10 (433-439): How The Pros Use Average Directional Index by Barbara Star, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""How The Pros Use Average\nDirectional Index
Here’s how technicians Charles LeBeau, Paul Rabbitt, and\nLinda Bradford Raschke integrate the average directional\nindex into their trading plans.
How would you like to look over the shoulders of\nprofessional traders using one of your favorite\nindicators? Here’s your chance. I spoke with\nthree well-known traders who put their own\nmoney at risk daily. I asked them to show me\nwhat they do with the average directional index\n(ADX), one of the longest-lived and most popular\ntrend indicators around.\nI asked Charles LeBeau, Paul Rabbitt, and\nLinda Raschke how they integrate ADX into their own trading\nanalysis and trading tactics. Here, largely in their own words,\nthese traders explain the thinking that guides their decision-making.\nHopefully, some of their strategies might make you\nthink about how this indicator can improve your trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-433-439-how-the-pros-use-average-directional-index-by-barbara-star-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-433-439-how-the-pros-use-average-directional-index-by-barbara-star-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-433-439-how-the-pros-use-average-directional-index-by-barbara-star-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v144ganswina,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:10 (440-444): Gann Swings And Intraday Trading by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Gann Swings And Intraday Trading
Swing trading is one of the oldest technical methods in\ntechnical trading literature. Even though it’s little used these\ndays, this classic technique is hardly outmoded and can be\nuseful in trading today’s volatile stock market.
To some, today’s overheated\nstock market must seem like\nthe land o’ opportunity: just\nstep right up and jump on board\nthe train to make a profit. Unfortunately,\nsome days the\nmarket looks more like a train\nwreck than a weekend trip to\nyour favorite resort. In fact,\nthe volatility in some stocks\nwould make a seasoned soy-bean\ntrader think he or she were trading grains during a major\ndrought. The hottest stocks have doubled in a matter of a few\nweeks, only to give back 50% in a few days. Top\ntraders know that the way to cope — that is,\nmake money — is to approach these volatile\nmarkets with a well-thought-out plan of action.\nDon’t go into the fray with a seat-of-the-pants\nattitude, or your emotions will make mincemeat\nof your account."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-440-444-gann-swings-and-intraday-trading-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-440-444-gann-swings-and-intraday-trading-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-440-444-gann-swings-and-intraday-trading-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v144tradmacb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:10 (445-448): Trading the MACD by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading The MACD
You can trade Gerald Appel’s moving average convergence/\ndivergence profitably in relatively flat markets. Here’s how.
The moving average convergence/\ndivergence (MACD) is a\nmomentum oscillator developed\nby Gerald Appel in the\nearly 1970s. For this oscillator,\nmomentum implies that\nfluctuations in prices are reflected\nin the MACD; if there is\na sudden increase in price, the\nMACD will move upward. It\nfluctuates above and below a\nzero line — which is why it is known as an oscillator. The zero\nline is the horizontal equilibrium line and if the indicator is\nabove the zero line, it is a bullish signal and if below the zero\nline, a bearish signal.\nThe MACD does what its name suggests: it measures the\ndivergence or convergence of a shorter moving average with\na longer moving average. It is represented in two ways, one\nas a line form and the other as a histogram. Figure\n1 illustrates the line and histogram versions of\nthe MACD for the same security."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-445-448-trading-the-macd-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-445-448-trading-the-macd-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-445-448-trading-the-macd-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v144indavvom,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:10 (449-457): Interview: David Vomund Of AIQ by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On The Opening Bell - David Vomund Of AIQ
David Vomund of AIQ Systems wears a few hats, chief of which is his positions\nas chief analyst of artificial intelligence–based charting software developer\nAIQ Systems and the editor of AIQ’s newsletter, The Opening Bell. Not only\nthat, Vomund is also president of Legarza Vomund Investment Management,\na registered investment advisory firm where he manages aggressive blue-chip\nportfolios. Under this money management program, Vomund utilizes his\ngrowth investing strategy while concentrating on a limited number of well-known\ncompanies; for the first half of 1999, his fund increased 44%. Vomund\nalso publishes the weekly VIS Alert.com E-mail newsletter, which covers\nmarket timing, industry sector rotation, and stock selection. Timer Digest, an\nindependent service that tracks market timing performance, rates Vomund’s\nmarket timing as one of the 10 best for the five-year period ended December\n31, 1998. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Technical Editor John Sweeney spoke with Vomund via telephone on July 22, 1999, on various topics such as artificial\nintelligence, why point and figure charts by hand are still a good idea after all this\ntime, and why mechanical systems are still his preference."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-449-457-interview-david-vomund-of-aiq-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-449-457-interview-david-vomund-of-aiq-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-449-457-interview-david-vomund-of-aiq-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v145getstarw,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:10 (458-462): Getting Started With Options by Joe Demkovich and Eugene Theriot"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Getting Started With Options
Rather than shying away from the complexity of options, stick\nwith some simple basics in exploiting them.
You can start paper-trading options\ndespite their daunting\nreputation for complexity. If you\nsucceed on paper, you’ll have\ntaken the first step to extracting\nprofits from the real market. It’s\ntrue that there are many kinds of\noptions, and options terminology\nis like a foreign language,\nbut professional traders use options\nfor a good reason. We’ll\ntell you why.\nBut first, yes, you can lose 100% of your investment. Of\ncourse, it is theoretically possible to do this by buying a stock,\nbut it just doesn’t happen. Even if you make an incredibly\npoor choice of equities, you (usually) won’t lose all the value\nin the next month or two. But it is all too easy to buy an option\none week that will be worthless the next. However, options\ncan also be conservative, especially when used in conjunction\nwith equities that you already own."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-458-462-getting-started-with-options-by-joe-demkovich-and-eugene-theriot-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-458-462-getting-started-with-options-by-joe-demkovich-and-eugene-theriot-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-458-462-getting-started-with-options-by-joe-demkovich-and-eugene-theriot-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1467webfort,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:10 (467): Website For Traders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUOTE.COM’S FAST QUOTE AND LIVE! CHARTS - http://fast.quote.com
Quote.com offers a range of free and paid\ncharting services at its site. In the March 1999\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES, we reviewed\nQCharts, the Internet-delivered real-time quote\nand charting service from Quote.com. But\nQuote.com offers packages for every level of\ntrader, from free to $99.95 a month for the real-time\nQCharts service. In the free area, you can\nplot quick charts or live, streaming charts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-467-website-for-traders-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-467-website-for-traders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-467-website-for-traders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:10(463-465): TRADER'S TIPS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""•TRADESTATION/SUPERCHARTS
This month in Traders’ Tips we look at the MACD of the\nrelative strength (MACD RS) between two instruments. This\nindicator is fairly easy to recreate in TradeStation’s\nPowerEditor using the built-in MACD function.
In the EasyLanguage for this indicator, relative strength is\ncalculated first. Once the relative strength value has been\nobtained, then the MACD function is used to calculate the\ndifferential line for Plot1. Both the XAverage and the MACD\nfunctions are used in Plot2 for the calculation of the signal\nline. The suggested format for this indicator is specified after\nthe EasyLangauge."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-463-465-trader-s-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-463-465-trader-s-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-463-465-trader-s-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1710letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:10:LETTERS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""IDENTIFYING SUPPORT\n& RESISTANCE LEVELS
Editor,\nBravo! I found Ned Gandevani’s article\nin the July 1999 STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\n“Identifying Crucial Support And\nResistance Levels,” the true remedy for\nmy quest. As an S&P day trader, I’ve\nbeen in search of a solid method to\nidentify support and resistance levels in\nthe S&P market. I couldn’t agree more\nwith Gandevani’s statement that none\nof the old and linear techniques work in\nthe S&P market. The author’s simple\nand creative concept offers a great practical\ntool in locating crucial support/\nresistance levels or common numbers.\nGreat choice and superb article. Thanks\nagain!\nMISHA JONES, via E-mail"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-10-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
namegoeshere,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11 (469-475): Trading The Opening Gap by Stephane Reverre"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading The Opening Gap by Stephane Reverre
Is it possible to profitably trade a gap opening from the previous close? Here’s one trader’s test of that idea using Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stocks as the subjects.
Profitably buying an opening dip or selling an opening\npop, depending on the size of the move, is possible,\nbut it’s not easy money. I systematically tested taking a position in the morning following a gap at the open and unwinding the position at the close of the same day, regardless of profitability. What I found was that the strategy, though not hugely profitable, was consistently profitable.
Here’s an example of how you could do the analysis yourself, complete with code (see Traders’ Tips).
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
If nothing is happening, there is no reason why a stock’s price would jump one way or the other. Therefore, mild price movements are the general expectation. What I wanted to capture were abnormal movements -- above a certain trigger level -- because, in those cases, I expected a correction. I could not predict the speed of the correction, but still, I reasoned, if unwarranted gaps were spotted quickly, it should take at most a few days for investors to realize that a particular stock had been unduly inflated or hammered. Because I restricted myself to a single trading day, I estimated -- or at least hoped -- that this correction would be initiated quickly and completed at the end of a single session."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-469-475-trading-the-opening-gap-by-stephane-reverre-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-469-475-trading-the-opening-gap-by-stephane-reverre-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-469-475-trading-the-opening-gap-by-stephane-reverre-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv147g,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11 (476-479): Getting Started With Options Using Protected Positions by J. Demkovich and E. Theriot"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Getting Started With Options Using Protected Positions by J. Demkovich and E. Theriot
If you’re bullish or bearish, you don’t need to expose\nyourself to the full risk of the underlying stock. Instead, take a protected position using option spreads.
Last month we described how to get past all the complexity facing a novice options user. This\nmonth, we’ll show you two other option uses that are applicable when you have a definite outlook on the direction of a stock. The first is to buy a call and the second is a more conservative method referred\nto as a spread."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-476-479-getting-started-with-options-using-protected-positions-by-j-demkovich-and-e-theriot-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-476-479-getting-started-with-options-using-protected-positions-by-j-demkovich-and-e-theriot-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-476-479-getting-started-with-options-using-protected-positions-by-j-demkovich-and-e-theriot-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v148filforne,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11 (487-493): Filters For Neural Net Trading Models by Steve Helme"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Filters For Neural Net Trading Models by Steve Helme
A filter such as a moving average removes noise from\naround the trend, leaving behind the important signal. The behavior required of filters that preprocess data inputs for a neural network trading model differs from that for discretionary trading systems. Usually, discretionary traders who use filters such as moving averages are not dependent on the filter’s precise\ncharacteristics. When looking for breakouts or trend changes, traders are concerned with the general performance of an indicator, not the relatively small deviations. On the other hand, mechanical\nsystems, and neural network systems in particular,\ncan be very sensitive to the precise characteristics of\nthe filtered indicators used as system inputs."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-487-493-filters-for-neural-net-trading-models-by-steve-helme-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-487-493-filters-for-neural-net-trading-models-by-steve-helme-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-487-493-filters-for-neural-net-trading-models-by-steve-helme-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v149detnewtr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11 (494-498): Detecting New Trends Early by David R. Steckler"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Detecting New Trends Early by David R. Steckler
Finding a trend early is a primary goal for many traders. Here’s a technique developed for stocks that can work for any instrument with volume information, using a combination of mass index and money flow index.
Everyone enjoys buying a stock just at the start of an explosive move up. But how do you find those opportunities? For a number of years, I’ve used a combination of Donald Dorsey’s mass index and Brian Green’s money flow index to identify conditions that improve the likelihood of finding a stock with the potential for rapid price appreciation. The earlier you get in on these breakout moves, the greater your chances for maximizing potential gains. Big moves occur when a stock breaks out of a trading range and begins to trend. Stocks trend higher when, over a defined period, they make a series of higher lows followed by higher highs."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-494-498-detecting-new-trends-early-by-david-r-steckler-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-494-498-detecting-new-trends-early-by-david-r-steckler-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-494-498-detecting-new-trends-early-by-david-r-steckler-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v149inpurtec,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11 (499-506): Interview: Purely Technical: Hamilton Lewis by John Sweeney and Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Purely Technical-- Hamilton Lewis
From the day he arrived in the US from Liberia, Hamilton Lewis’s persistence took him through the securities industry’s maturation process to become a money manager with $95 million under his guidance. The unique thing about that? Lewis manages it all with technical tools, and classic tools at that: he’s a point-and-figure man, with a dash of cyclic analysis and candlestick charting thrown in. Currently based in Houston, TX, Lewis does a daily review of 300 actively traded equities, updating his charts by hand as he does so. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Technical Editor John Sweeney and Staff Writer Bruce Faber interviewed Hamilton Lewis via telephone on August 20 and August 23, 1999, asking him about his background, how an active manager speculates purely with technical tools, and his results in doing so.
How did you get started with your interest in the stock market?\nEighteen years ago, I escaped to this country from Monrovia, Liberia, with $400 in my pocket. I had been playing on the Liberian national basketball team, so I managed to get an athletic scholarship to play college basketball.
What did you study?\nFinancial management. While I was at college, one of my professors told me that I had a good way of working with people and finance. He also told me that he believed that financial planning would be the wave of the future, and I should consider that."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-499-506-interview-purely-technical-hamilton-lewis-by-john-sweeney-and-bruce-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-499-506-interview-purely-technical-hamilton-lewis-by-john-sweeney-and-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-499-506-interview-purely-technical-hamilton-lewis-by-john-sweeney-and-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v150trigyour,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11 (507-509): Triggering Your Trading Signal by Benjamin L. Cotton"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Triggering Your Trading Signal by Benjamin L. Cotton
Here’s an indicator that calculates the future price movement necessary to trigger a moving average condition, removing the guesswork from systems trading based on such relationships.
Every trader has indicators to track the market with, but if the indicators are dependent upon a price that has yet to occur, the patience and time needed to track the entire body of stocks of concern to us can be tedious. There’s a way to get directly to what you want to know, which is what price will trip the indicators to generate a signal.
For example, a simple moving average crossover rule states: “If the close crosses over the 30-day moving average of the close, then buy on close.” Here, the two variables — the close and the 30-day moving average — converge to generate a signal. In this case, however, both variables depend on a closing price that has yet to occur. If you’re going to trade this rule, it is risky to anticipate the exact price necessary for a signal to be triggered, especially if the relationship were more complicated — say, buy on close when a five-day moving average crosses over a 10-day moving average. An indicator that computes this target price, or “bogie” in Air Force parlance, makes determining the trigger much easier. Certainly, it beats plugging a best-guess price into your calculator repeatedly until a trade is simulated."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-507-509-triggering-your-trading-signal-by-benjamin-l-cotton-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-507-509-triggering-your-trading-signal-by-benjamin-l-cotton-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-507-509-triggering-your-trading-signal-by-benjamin-l-cotton-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v151tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11 (510-512): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented.
Code for Stephane Reverre's article \""Trading The Opening Gap\"" are provided for TRADESTATION SUPERCHARTS, METASTOCK, BIOCOMP PROFIT, NEUROSHELL TADER, TECHNIFILTER PLUS, SMARTRADER, and WAVE WI$E MARKET SPREADSHEET."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-510-512-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-510-512-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-510-512-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1513webfort,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11 (513): Websites For Traders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Websites for Traders
We have reviewed Decisionpoint.com and investertech.com's websites."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-513-websites-for-traders-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-513-websites-for-traders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-513-websites-for-traders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1785codcanb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11 (85-92) Coding Candlesticks by Victor Likhovidov"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Coding Candlesticks by Victor Likhovidov
Japanese candlestick charting is a popular method with which to visualize market price dynamics. Usually, candlestick charting is used in concert with other indicators to gauge market activity, but as a quantitative approach, technical analysis would be best served with quantitative rules for reading candlestick charts. Here’s a simple method by which to assign digital codes to candlesticks. You’ll see that the codes agree with the basic principles of technical analysis and may be used to construct a class of new indicators. My coding scheme is built on the common interpretation of candlestick charts. In particular:
The color of the candlestick is its most important characteristic, so it has the highest weight in the code. White candles are bullish and black candles are bearish.
The opening and closing prices of the candlestick are the most important of its four levels (open, high, low,close), and this is reflected in that the size of a candlestick’s body corresponds to the positions of the binary code directly after its color.
The weight of each candlestick’s element (body, upper shadow, lower shadow) depends on its size."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-85-92-coding-candlesticks-by-victor-likhovidov-21.gif"",""height"":""240"",""width"":""182""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-85-92-coding-candlesticks-by-victor-likhovidov-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-85-92-coding-candlesticks-by-victor-likhovidov-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1711letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:11: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
Regression for forecasting, exit strategies and getting started as a trader are some of the letter topics in this month's issue."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-11-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v151apganant,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (515-520): Applying Gann Angles To Computer Charts by Brent Aston"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Applying Gann Angles To Computer Charts by Brent Aston
Tried and true and far from being discarded,Gann angles are daily tools for some traders. Here ’s how\nto use two of W.D.Gann ’s central ideas in today ’s\ncomputerized environment.
Trader William D. Gann became famous in the early 20th century for his ability to forecast exact price targets in the stock and commodity markets. To arrive at his forecasts, W.D. Gann used a combination of methods, ranging from simple counts and angles to correlating natural events. Of course, many securities that exist now did not exist then, and volatility is very different from\nwhat it was in his time. However, the geometrical\nrelationships that he applied to data appear to\nwork equally well on modern data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-515-520-applying-gann-angles-to-computer-charts-by-brent-aston-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-515-520-applying-gann-angles-to-computer-charts-by-brent-aston-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-515-520-applying-gann-angles-to-computer-charts-by-brent-aston-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v152marprofb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (521-528): Market Profile Basics by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Profile Basics by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
Every off-floor trader would like to get a feel for how things really are on the exchange floor. Mastering Market Profile may help you get it.
Worried that you’ll never be able to compete with the\nfloor traders? After all, they’re right there in the middle of the action. They’re privy to information that off-floor traders see late or maybe never. Once you start using\nMarket Profile, however, you may find yourself with more information than the floor trader. No longer will floor traders, decked out in their colored jackets, frantically gesturing and scrambling to make themselves heard and seen by other traders, seem chaotic, intimidating, or bizarre. Instead, with the use of Market Profile, you will see the order in the markets.
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s in conjunction with the Chicago Board of Trade. Traders who use it say that they get an in-depth understanding of the market, contributing to improved trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-521-528-market-profile-basics-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-521-528-market-profile-basics-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-521-528-market-profile-basics-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v152mardontt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (529-532): Markets Don’t Trend, They Burst by K.D. Angle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Markets Don’t Trend, They Burst by K.D. Angle
Is there really such a thing as a trend? Maybe not. Maybe a relatively few pops in price make up most of the market movement we see.
Does this statement, or something like it, sound familiar? “Of the annual returns from the stock market over the last 10 years, 90% were generated in a month\nor so, and unless you’re always in the market, you’ll miss out on those few days that generate the vast majority of returns.”
Variations of that statement are common, and it’s true that an “always in the market” strategy has worked for portfolio managers like Warren Buffett as well as large commodity/futures money managers that utilize long-term trend-following strategies. Stepping back and taking a look at a 10-year chart of the daily prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) would certainly give an observer the impression that this has been a long-term trending bull market. Even if you examined a monthly chart over the last few decades, you would come up with a similar conclusion. But if you were to analyze the movement of daily net vertical price movement, you would begin to understand that there was something altogether different taking place."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-529-532-markets-don-t-trend-they-burst-by-k-d-angle-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-529-532-markets-don-t-trend-they-burst-by-k-d-angle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-529-532-markets-don-t-trend-they-burst-by-k-d-angle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v153kelchanb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (533-538): Keltner Channel by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Keltner Channels by Stuart Evens
There are many different ways of constructing channels, and one of the more basic, though less well-known, methods is the Keltner channel. Take a look.
The Keltner channel technique, which was first presented in 1960, is not generally as well known as other channel methods. In fact, while doing research for this article, I had a difficult time finding many references on the subject, and I personally have never used Keltner channels to trade. Therefore, I decided to get a feel for the Keltner method by comparing it to other, more widely used methods of channel construction. I will first examine the basics of fixed-width envelopes, Bollinger Bands, STARC bands, and Keltner channels, going into more detail for Keltner. I’ll look at how each method responds to the daily price bar activity for the same stock, Apple Computer [AAPL], during the same period. I’ll then compare the historically backtested results for each of the data from Dial Data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-533-538-keltner-channel-by-stuart-evens-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-533-538-keltner-channel-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-533-538-keltner-channel-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v153revandlo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (539-541): Revenge and Loss by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Revenge And Loss by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Don’t try to get even with the market. Here are some tactics for eliminating vengeful trading impulses from your trading repertoire.
The temptation to get even when we feel that we have been wronged brings out the worst in all of us. Certainly, when a trader feels the pang of loss, a part of him wants to get even with the markets. However, when a person acts out of revenge, the retaliation often results in greater loss. Typically, a trader will take greater risks to overcome those losses, creating a vicious cycle of greater losses and more psychological pain.
FATHER KNOWS BEST
Charlie grew up in a home where his father made all of the final decisions. Even when choices were made that should not have involved his input, such as deciding what food to order at a restaurant, Dad always introduced his unwavering opinion. If Charlie made a choice that his father agreed with, the decision was never acknowledged. If, however, Charlie’s choice did not please his father, he was chastised and punished. As a result of these poor parenting tactics, Charlie built up a great deal of frustration and anger. Charlie dreamed of getting even with his father one day for creating such angry feelings."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-539-541-revenge-and-loss-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-539-541-revenge-and-loss-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-539-541-revenge-and-loss-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v154canfilby,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (548-551): Candlestick Filtering by Rudy Teseo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Candlestick Filtering by Rudy Teseo
Using candlestick patterns alone to generate buy and sell signals may be risky. Combining them with confirming indicators can greatly increase reliability. Take a look.
Few candlestick patterns can stand alone without confirmation of some kind. It is extremely risky to trust buy and sell signals based solely on these patterns.\nYou can diminish some of the uncertainty, though, by filtering the candlesticks’ signals, using other indicators to confirm buy or sell signals.
In the case of candlesticks, the question arises: What to use for confirmation? For an answer, consider this: candlestick patterns are merely a different form of chart pattern. Candlesticks and standard price bars display exactly the same information — open, high, low, and\nclose. Therefore, any indicators you are currently using on bar charts can be used to confirm the candlestick pattern. This is the essence of my filtering process."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-548-551-candlestick-filtering-by-rudy-teseo-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-548-551-candlestick-filtering-by-rudy-teseo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-548-551-candlestick-filtering-by-rudy-teseo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v155injonhoe,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (552-547): Interview: Jonathan Hoenig Of Capitalist Pig by John Sweeney and Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On Generation X -- Jonathan Hoenig Of CapitalistPig
Generation X: You love ’em, you hate ’em, or you are ’em. Generation X, the generation after the Baby Boomers, are finally at the stage in their lives that they have money to trade with. Trader Jonathan Hoenig, whom Forbes called “the voice of finance for Generation X,” hosts an investment radio show aimed at GenXers called “CapitalistPig.” He also writes a monthly financial column, makes frequent television appearances, writes newsletters on the Internet, and in general speaks on the limitless opportunity available in trading and investing for Generation X. Not only that, Hoenig, who is 23, has been trading since his teens and is active both on the Mid-American Exchange for futures and through electronic brokers in equities. He has also written a book, Greed Is Good: The Capitalist Pig Guide To Investing, which, curiously, is a conventional, if irreverent, step-by-step to building your portfolio. Through it all, Jonathan speaks to his listeners with candor you’d expect over beer and pretzels at your local bar. Interim Editor John Sweeney and Staff Writer Bruce Faber interviewed Jonathan Hoenig via telephone on August 26, 1999, asking him, among other things, why he prefers commodities over stocks, why he believes that open outcry is on its way out, the difference between investing and trading and why it’s important for GenXers, and why his heroes are Karl Marx, Hugh Hefner, and the character “Gordon Gekko” from the movie Wall Street."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-552-547-interview-jonathan-hoenig-of-capitalist-pig-by-john-sweeney-and-bruce-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-552-547-interview-jonathan-hoenig-of-capitalist-pig-by-john-sweeney-and-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-552-547-interview-jonathan-hoenig-of-capitalist-pig-by-john-sweeney-and-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v155asbontur,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (552-554): As The Bond Turns by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""As The Bond Turns by Alex Saitta
Quick! Is that a turn in the bond market you see? Well, don’t jump right away. Trend reversals take time.
Trend reversals take time: I’ve heard this time and time again. After an uptrend, for instance, you’ll often hear technicians say: “Don’t get short yet. It will take time before this uptrend is reversed. Tops take time to form.” Intrigued, I decided to find out if this was correct. As it turns out, it is correct, at least in the bond market. Here’s the evidence and a technique you can use to test your favorite trading instrument.
The theory that tops and bottoms take time to form is rooted in the belief that the longer-term price movement of a security is guided by its underlying fundamentals. The fundamentals in most markets are byproducts of the business cycle. The business cycle has four phases — up, top, down, and bottom — and because the cycle moves along slowly, the time length of these phases tend to be proportional to each other."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-552-554-as-the-bond-turns-by-alex-saitta-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-552-554-as-the-bond-turns-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-552-554-as-the-bond-turns-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v155tradagga,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (555-560): Trade Against The Gap by Stephane Reverre"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trade Against The Gap by Stéphane Reverre
Here’s a systematic way of trading from close to close, depending on the amplitude of the move from one day to the next.
Does it pay to trade against a one-day price move of a certain size? That price action is a gap, and last issue, I explored how trading into a gap from the open to the close on the same day could be profitable. This time, I used descriptive statistics to develop the same strategy\ntrading from close to close: depending on the amplitude of the move from yesterday to today, I took a position against the gap at today’s close, and then I unwound these positions at the close of tomorrow or the next day.
As in my previous article, I assumed that a correction was probable if the gap — the distance between closes — was greater than a given minimum length. There are two important questions that had to be asked: “What level of a close-to-close gap is appropriate to trade?” and “What is the appropriate holding period for these positions?”"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-555-560-trade-against-the-gap-by-stephane-reverre-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-555-560-trade-against-the-gap-by-stephane-reverre-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-555-560-trade-against-the-gap-by-stephane-reverre-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v156tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (561-563): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS’ TIPS
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented.
Included are RADARSCREEN, METASTOCK, NEUROSHELL TRADER, and TECHNIFILTER PLUS code for Rudy Teseo's article \""Candlestick Filtering\"".
WAVE WI$E MARKET SPREADSHEET code is supplied for Stephane Reverre's article \""Trade Against The Gap.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-561-563-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-561-563-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-561-563-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1564webfort,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12 (564): Websites For Traders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Websites For Traders
This month we review Reality Based Trading Company at www.rb.trading.com, and Futuresource.com."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-564-websites-for-traders-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-564-websites-for-traders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-564-websites-for-traders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1712letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:12: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
Four pages of letters to the editor relating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication with our readers.
Some of this month's letters are on the following topics: EXCEL CODE FOR TREND-FOLLOWING\nMETHOD, COSINE-WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE, and THE VAP INDICATOR."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-12-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v161prodrevd,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 (613-615): Product Review: Day Trader, version 7"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Day Trader Version 7.0 by John Sweeney
Day Trader 7.0 is a day-trading package fed by a\nvariety of continuous datastreams and thoroughly integrated with Internet research resources. It provides\na variety of charting, analysis, quote, news, and system trading functions. The software is an elaboration of the basic Window on Wall Street (WOW) interface, now offered in a variety of packages. For a detailed look at the basic features, check out the review of Internet Trader Pro in the April 1999 issue. For this review, we checked out the Internet version of Day Trader 7 only.\nUsing the Internet for delivering trading data is growing rapidly in popularity because it eliminates data drudgery at the price of some unreliability from the foibles of the ’Net. Should, for example, UUNET’s node in Los Angeles go down, there will be a huge drop in response rate, a drop that could be misinterpreted by\nyour software, causing “failures” that were not failures at your point at all."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-613-615-product-review-day-trader-version-7-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-613-615-product-review-day-trader-version-7-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-613-615-product-review-day-trader-version-7-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1ap59prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 April (598-603): Product Review: Fibonacci Trader, 32-bit, version 3.01"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Robert Krausz’s Fibonacci Trader 32-Bit, Version 3.01 by Stuart Evens
It’s no surprise that Fibonacci Trader continues to appeal to the serious trader, as its creator, Robert Krausz, has more than 20 years of professional trading experience. This software is a direct result of his own trading methods and includes indicators he has developed and uses in his own trading.
The name, I’m sure, will ring a bell with many of our readers. Krausz was featured in Jack Schwager’s book, New Market Wizards. He was also interviewed in the September 1995 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, and introduced Fibonacci Trader’s core concept of multiple time frame analysis in an article in the November 1996 issue. Recently, Krausz followed up with a discussion in the January 1999 issue, “Multiple Time Frame Trading Using Swing Channels,” in which he added channel breakout theory to the mix."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-april-598-603-product-review-fibonacci-trader-32-bit-version-3-01-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-april-598-603-product-review-fibonacci-trader-32-bit-version-3-01-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-april-598-603-product-review-fibonacci-trader-32-bit-version-3-01-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1ap61prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 April (610-611): Product Review: Jurik Indicators and Data Preprocessors"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Jurik Indicators and Data Preprocessors by Thom Hartle
The quest for the best technical tools goes on. At one extreme, traders want better methods to smooth data to see the true trend, and at the other extreme, traders want to identify when that trend has indeed changed direction. One firm, Jurik Research, has come up with a collection of indicators that works to solve some of the problems of the classic technical indicators. These indicators are available for TradeStation, SuperCharts, or Microsoft Excel users. For this review, I used Excel. The indicators are the JMA (Jurik moving average), the Jurik VEL (zero-lag velocity) and the Jurik CFB (composite fractal behavior)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-april-610-611-product-review-jurik-indicators-and-data-preprocessors-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-april-610-611-product-review-jurik-indicators-and-data-preprocessors-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-april-610-611-product-review-jurik-indicators-and-data-preprocessors-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1ap61prodre1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 April (612-613): Product Review: Trade Simulator Pro"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Trade Simulator Pro by John Sweeney
Trade Simulator was begun as a way to educate\nbrokerage customers who needed some rationale for their trading. Traders Network, a full-service and discount brokerage firm, developed the program to train customers in the technical side of things. Over time and with some programming talent behind it, the program grew into a nifty, commercially viable futures training vehicle.
You can download Trade Simulator Pro from the Traders Network Website for a five-day trial. That version offers only a limited amount of datafiles, though once you’ve tried it, you can order the program on compact disc to install the real thing, and if you choose, you can access the Traders Market Center and the continuous historical data the company makes available."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-april-612-613-product-review-trade-simulator-pro-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-april-612-613-product-review-trade-simulator-pro-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-april-612-613-product-review-trade-simulator-pro-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1aug63prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Aug (631-632): Product Review: DTN.IQ"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: DTN.IQ by John Sweeney
The rush to the Internet has brought many stalwart data suppliers, among them DTN. DTN grew accustomed to delivering value when supplying farmers with commodities data; the service later expanded into energy and financial services. Its latest product is DTN.IQ, which seeks to deliver by Internet everything that formerly charged down from satellites or over fiberoptics and copper to your PC.
DTN.IQ has been live for more than a year at this point. There is no printed manual; there is an online manual, however, which can be accessed from the main toolbar. There’s little effort involved in operating the program. The only thing to get used to is that each service (such as news, charts, quotes, and so forth) is in a separate window. The advantage to this approach is total freedom to arrange information on your screen; the only downside is clutter if you don’t take the time to arrange things on your screen."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-631-632-product-review-dtn-iq-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-631-632-product-review-dtn-iq-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-631-632-product-review-dtn-iq-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1aug63prodr1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Aug (633-634): Product Review: www.BigCharts.com"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: www.BigCharts.com by Stuart Evens
To complement our new Websites for Traders section, we’ll periodically single out Websites to examine. The first Website we’ll cover is BigCharts.com, which turned up as the winner in the “Favorite Websites” category of our 1998 Readers’ Choice Awards.
BigCharts at www.bigcharts.com provides online charting, investment research, and access to quotes on more than 50,000 stocks, mutual funds, and market indices, including NYSE, Nasdaq, OTC, AMEX, TSE, VSE, MSE, ASE, and WSE stocks; all Nasdaq-quoted\nmutual funds; and all major financial indices. End-of-day data is provided by Interactive Data, and intraday data is provided by S&P Comstock. Stock price data is delayed, but index data is provided in real-time snapshot format."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-633-634-product-review-www-bigcharts-com-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-633-634-product-review-www-bigcharts-com-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-633-634-product-review-www-bigcharts-com-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1aug63prodr2,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Aug (635-637): Product Review: OptionOracle, version 2.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: OptionOracle, version 2.0 by John Sweeney
OptionOracle is a mid-priced options package that allows you to scan options combinations for best trades; analyze any of 30 option strategies for any situation; graph positions; display several alternative positions to analyze time, price, and volatility; and track your positions with a portfolio manager. Its speed and simplicity distinguish it.
DATA
Use the manual for this program. The manual is well done and takes you step by step through what you need to do to get going."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-635-637-product-review-optionoracle-version-2-0-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-635-637-product-review-optionoracle-version-2-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-635-637-product-review-optionoracle-version-2-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1aug63prodr3,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Aug (637-639): Product Review: VSA5 Professional"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: VSA5 Professional by John Sweeney
Volume spread analysis (VSA) is a concept developed by UK software developer Tom Williams in the late 1980s and early 1990s. It is described in his 1993 book, \""The Undeclared Secrets That Drive The Stock Market,\"" and programmed for day and position trading support in his software, VSA5 Professional. As a trading software vendor in the United Kingdom, Williams must walk a fine line in promoting his ideas. He cannot sell software that gives trading signals, for example, as this is prohibited in Great Britain by the Futures and Securities Authority. Nor can he speak or write of such activities. He may refer obliquely to “signs of strength” and “signs of weakness,” albeit not too loudly. Accordingly, here is the disclaimer you will find in VSA documentation:
“This software does not provide any specific trading advice and at no time may the user be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.”"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-637-639-product-review-vsa5-professional-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-637-639-product-review-vsa5-professional-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-aug-637-639-product-review-vsa5-professional-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1dec57quics,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Dec (572-573): Quick Scan: TradeCast, version 3.1.23"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK-SCANS: TRADECAST, VERSION 3.1.23
A good trading support system closely integrates observation, analysis, order entry, and loss management tools. Since there is, usually, a limited amount of screen space, it all must fit together well\nand be fluidly accessible. TradeCast offers that promise for equities and, I’m told, soon for options. I checked out a demo version of the product using TradeCast’s servers over the Internet and interviewed active users to get a feel for its capabilities, which, once restricted to trading rooms and brokerage houses, are now being offered to retail traders over the Internet."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-dec-572-573-quick-scan-tradecast-version-3-1-23-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-dec-572-573-quick-scan-tradecast-version-3-1-23-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-dec-572-573-quick-scan-tradecast-version-3-1-23-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1dec574quic,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Dec (574): Quick Scan: TeachPro Internet Trading"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK-SCANS: TEACHPRO INTERNET TRADING
How about a course that takes you from the absolute basics on up? TeachPro’s trading course covers that much ground in a CD that offers a thorough, if dry, lecture."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-dec-574-quick-scan-teachpro-internet-trading-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-dec-574-quick-scan-teachpro-internet-trading-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-dec-574-quick-scan-teachpro-internet-trading-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1dec66prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Dec (663-665): Product Review: TC2000.com"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: TC2000.com by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
“It’s simple and it works,” one TC2000 user said, summing up why Worden Brothers has captured such\na loyal customer base with the popular charting software. The features of the latest version, 4.2, are\nsimilar to those of the previous one, but this incarnation contains improved reporting, faster downloads and calculations,direct linkstoWebstories, automatic updating of MetaStock and TC2000 3.0 datafiles, and symbol lists imported from text files, MetaStock, and TC2000 3.0 databases."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-dec-663-665-product-review-tc2000-com-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-dec-663-665-product-review-tc2000-com-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-dec-663-665-product-review-tc2000-com-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1feb58prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Feb (584-85): Product Review: Aberration"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PRODUCT REVIEW: Aberration by John Sweeney
Keith Fitschen’s Aberration was first offered for sale in 1993, and it has, with few exceptions, been a perennial\ncontender among the top multicommodity trading systems. And for good reason. Aberration is straightforward. It constantly computes trading points around the current price and enters on hitting these. Then it exits when prices return to normal, away from the trading points. The vendor discloses the conceptual\nthinking fully in the manual."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-584-85-product-review-aberration-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-584-85-product-review-aberration-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-584-85-product-review-aberration-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1feb58prodr1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Feb (586-88): Product Review: AIQ TradingExpert Pro"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: AIQ TradingExpert by John Sweeney
TradingExpert Pro, AIQ’s latest offering, integrates data acquisition, charting, analysis, and expert ratings\nas well as a portfolio manager. Since its introduction in 1992, it has become one of the more consistent programs in making market calls. While the rule set for the artificial intelligence generating the expert ratings wasn’t redone in this latest incarnation, new features to address the modern market’s needs have been added, the principal one being a real-time aspect to the program — hence, TradingExpert Pro."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-586-88-product-review-aiq-tradingexpert-pro-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-586-88-product-review-aiq-tradingexpert-pro-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-586-88-product-review-aiq-tradingexpert-pro-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1feb58prodr2,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Feb (588-89): Product Review: OddsCalc"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: OddsCalc by John Sweeney
For most traders, volatility is an invisible enemy. Unless\nthey have an instinctive sense of probability, it’s\ndifficult for them to perceive how changes in volatility affect pricing, much less when overpricing or underpricing occurs. That leaves those traders bereft of the tools needed to make good entries.
OddsCalc is designed to beat this problem. A spreadsheet that can run in Lotus 1-2-3 or Excel, it contains calculators for 32 futures markets plus the\nOex. It calculates the odds of prices being above or below various targets, normally strike prices, on option expiration. It performs these calculations for individual options, neutral option positions, credit and debit spreads. Armed with this information, the trader\ncan find the best option strategy for current market conditions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-588-89-product-review-oddscalc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-588-89-product-review-oddscalc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-588-89-product-review-oddscalc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1feb59prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Feb (590-91): Product Review: The Profile Analyzer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: The Profile Analyzer by John Sweeney
What happens after gaps in cattle? Or bonds? Or economic reports that produce unexpected results? Not just what you recall but, statistically, what actually happened? If you’re a futures trader, Profile Analyzer may have some answers, using experience from 1991 forward as your guide. Profile Analyzer will dump a database of data, text, and pricing on your hard drive and then query it for events as you specify. For\nexample: bond pops. If they go to new highs, do they keep going? Well, it turns out they do, but how do you know that? Some homework was required."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-590-91-product-review-the-profile-analyzer-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-590-91-product-review-the-profile-analyzer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-feb-590-91-product-review-the-profile-analyzer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jan567quic,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Jan (567): Quick Scan: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK SCAN
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS - A Comprehensive Guide To Trading Methods And Applications
Back in 1986, analyst John Murphy wrote what quickly became the bible for technicians — Technical Analysis Of The Futures Markets. Now, 13 years later, Murphy has expanded, revised and updated his 500-page tome."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-567-quick-scan-technical-analysis-of-the-financial-markets-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-567-quick-scan-technical-analysis-of-the-financial-markets-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-567-quick-scan-technical-analysis-of-the-financial-markets-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jan57prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Jan (575-576): Product Review: ChartBook, Revision D 1.3"",""caption-linebreaks"":""ChartBook Revision D 1.3 by John Sweeney
End-of-day data may not be the newest thing around\nanymore, but it’s still then way most retail traders get\ntheir numbers. ChartBook was designed by trader Ed Seykota as an adjunct to his own trading, and he remains in the background as chief engineer. With ChartBook, a steady process of upgrades allows Tech Tools to used by trading gurus, updated daily. What’s available is listed just off the main page on the Web site. In fact, Tech Tools’ entire listing is also available in\nthe Technical Tools library within ChartBook."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-575-576-product-review-chartbook-revision-d-1-3-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-575-576-product-review-chartbook-revision-d-1-3-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-575-576-product-review-chartbook-revision-d-1-3-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jan57prodr1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Jan (577-579): Product Review: Option Simulator/RT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PRODUCT REVIEW: Option Simulator/RT Version 3 by John Sweeney
Real-time options analytics have slowly gotten more\navailable, presumably in response to consumer demand. As datafeeds have concurrently gotten better, the software on the receiving end has become more\nviable. Option Simulator/Real Time from Bay Options is a hard-core frontrunner in this niche war."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-577-579-product-review-option-simulator-rt-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-577-579-product-review-option-simulator-rt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-577-579-product-review-option-simulator-rt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jan57prodr2,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Jan (579-582): Product Rev: Power Investor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PRODUCT REVIEW: Power Investor by John Sweeney
Power Investor combines the screening of company information, mutual fund information and technical indicators. If you'd like to prune your choices based on, say, asset turnover and parabolics, this is what you need. Integrated into the system is a portfolio manager as well."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-579-582-product-rev-power-investor-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-579-582-product-rev-power-investor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-579-582-product-rev-power-investor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jan58prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Jan (582-83): Product Review: Universal Market Data Server"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PRODUCT REVIEW: Universal Market Data Server by John Sweeney
One constant problem for daytraders in the past few\nyears has been that though they had only one datafeed, they often had several programs that needed to use it. Some data vendors provided server software that allowed for this; others did not. Some analytical software could only use proprietary data servers. There was no simple solution to the problem."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-582-83-product-review-universal-market-data-server-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-582-83-product-review-universal-market-data-server-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-jan-582-83-product-review-universal-market-data-server-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jul568quic,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 July (568): Quick Scan: Jack Schwager’s Complete Guide to Designing & Testing Trading Systems"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK-SCANS -- JACK SCHWAGER’S COMPLETE\nGUIDE TO DESIGNING AND TESTING TRADING SYSTEMS
Despite all the gusty verbosity on the subject, designing trading systems is still an arcane art within the art of trading itself. Ideally, an objective system would capture every facet of trading and operate on its own. Since we aren’t at that point as yet, traders must be trained to\nidentify and handle as many facets as possible. Noted market analyst Jack Schwager’s videocourse hits nearly all the essentials of system design within the\nframework of TradeStation, Omega’s flagship analytical software."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-568-quick-scan-jack-schwager-s-complete-guide-to-designing-testing-trading-systems-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-568-quick-scan-jack-schwager-s-complete-guide-to-designing-testing-trading-systems-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-568-quick-scan-jack-schwager-s-complete-guide-to-designing-testing-trading-systems-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jul62prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 July (620-622): Product Review: FastBrreak 2.6/FastGraph 2.6"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: FastBrreak 2.6/FastGraph 2.6 by John Sweeney
Traders looking to enhance the effectiveness of their\nmutual fund and stock switching rules will want\nto check out FastBreak and FastGraph, a strategy-testing software suite that uses the data from the ubiquitous FastTrack mutual fund and stock tracking service. This review was written using mutual funds as examples, but the software can apply the same techniques to individual stock trading.
FastTrack itself can be used for fund ranking and, therefore, switching. The investor/speculator picks a list of funds he’d like to trade within and ranks them using FastTrack’s facilities. Typically, when a fund drops out of, say, the top five slots in the list, it is sold and the fund that replaces it, or the top-performing fund overall, is bought."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-620-622-product-review-fastbrreak-2-6-fastgraph-2-6-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-620-622-product-review-fastbrreak-2-6-fastgraph-2-6-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-620-622-product-review-fastbrreak-2-6-fastgraph-2-6-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jul62prodr1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 July (626-628): Product Review: Investor R/T"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V17:13 July (626-628): Product Review: Investor R/T by John Sweeney
Investor/RT is one of the more innovative analytical\nprograms available to support daytraders and active investors. I was initially intrigued by its gallery of indicators, and then by the variety of datafeeds it supports and its ability to run on Pentiums and Power Macs. You can download a fully functional version with a demo datafeed from their Website. Whether you get the Mac or Windows version, installation is straight-forward. The program runs identically on either platform due to some industrial-strength development tools that produce source code compiled separately for each. Either version creates a folder on your hard drive and you begin with the “Start Investor/RT” file. For this review, I used the myTrack Internet datafeed from Track Data Corp."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-626-628-product-review-investor-r-t-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-626-628-product-review-investor-r-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-626-628-product-review-investor-r-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jul62prodr2,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 July (629-630): Product Review: myTrack"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: myTrack by John Sweeney
Is free a good price? How about real-time data for less than $20 a month? Track Data has gone Internet, and it has done so emphatically.
Its myTrack product is among the most aggressively priced, and the company throws in a lot of goodies with the basics. The datastream itself is international, covering London, Frankfurt, Paris, Stockholm, and Zurich, as well as the US markets. No Asian, Pacific, or South American markets are included. Moreover, it not only does stocks but also includes futures, options, and mutual funds. To boot, myTrack can be used on Macintoshes as well as Windows machines."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-629-630-product-review-mytrack-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-629-630-product-review-mytrack-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-july-629-630-product-review-mytrack-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jun567quic,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 June (567): Quick Scan: Breaking the Black Box"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK-SCANS -- BREAKING THE BLACK BOX
Published by the International Institute for Economic Research
Martin Pring’s series of trade training CDs has been extended, this time with an offering that takes novice system developers through the process of defining\nand creating a mechanical trading system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-june-567-quick-scan-breaking-the-black-box-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-june-567-quick-scan-breaking-the-black-box-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-june-567-quick-scan-breaking-the-black-box-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jun61prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 June (618-620): Product Review: Drummond Geometry, Lessons 1-15"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Drummond Geometry, Lessons 1-15
Veteran traders will remember Charles Drummond’s\nfirst book published in 1978, How To Make Money In The Futures Markets — And Lots Of It. Not uncommon for that time, it was made up of hundreds of typed pages with hand-annotated charts, all bound in black\nspiroflex. Eight more books by Drummond came out after that, all self-published and covered by a nondisclosure agreement.
Market veterans will be happy to know they can still get the Drummond Geometry course in its classic notebook style, or they can opt for today’s higher-tech CD-ROM format. I preferred the CD-ROM version because Ted Hearne, who has embraced and popularized Drummond Geometry, has synthesized the information considerably, bringing the original 585 pages down to a more concise level. All of the nine original manuals are included as part of the course."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-june-618-620-product-review-drummond-geometry-lessons-1-15-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-june-618-620-product-review-drummond-geometry-lessons-1-15-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-june-618-620-product-review-drummond-geometry-lessons-1-15-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1jun62prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 June (622-625): Product Review: eSignal"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: eSignal by Stuart Evens
Signal Online and StockEdge Online have gotten a major overhaul and a name change to eSignal. Data Broadcasting Corporation’s two flag-ship products, BMI and Signal, are aimed at sophisticated traders and speculators, delivered over one-way broadcast technology. Each offers users the ability to mix and match real-time and delayed data depending on the trader’s specific data needs. Now, with eSignal (Figure\n1) (formerly Signal Online and StockEdge Online), DBC’s Internet-delivered version of Signal, provides continuous streaming real-time quotes with direct exchange connections for US equities as well as futures, options data, and Nasdaq Level II Market Maker information; limit alerts via pager, E-mail, or cellular phone; technical analysis, charting, and company research; headline tickers and full story news; detailed portfolio management windows; and fundamental data. Their data is also compatible with a host of third-party\ntechnical analysis software vendors, including MetaStock, TradeStation, and Ensign. Plus, eSignal can update an Excel spreadsheet for portfolio management."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-june-622-625-product-review-esignal-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-june-622-625-product-review-esignal-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-june-622-625-product-review-esignal-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1mar59prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 March (592-593): Product Review: FutureScope Trade Search"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: FutureScope, Trade Search Over The Internet by John Sweeney
Given a contract, a time period, and a set of parameters, FutureScope, an Internet-based trade search service for Lind-Waldock customers, can tell you how a proposed trade would have resulted on\nhistorical data. FutureScope looks for repeating trends in the futures markets — markets ranging from agriculturals to financials (rates) to the Standard &\nPoor’s to metals to currencies. Available for searching\nare 20 years of data on 32 different contracts.
FutureScope works simply. You tell it which market you’d like to trade and when you’d like to trade, and after checking some other inputs, it goes back five, 10, or 20 years to see how things might have worked out had you traded the best trade available during that period in previous years."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-592-593-product-review-futurescope-trade-search-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-592-593-product-review-futurescope-trade-search-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-592-593-product-review-futurescope-trade-search-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1mar59prodr1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 March (593-96): Product Review: QCharts, a Real-Time Internet Service"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: QCharts A Real-Time Internet Service by Stuart P. Evens
Quote.com, an online financial market information\nWebsite, provides flexibility in its financial data products to meet the needs of many different types of investors and traders. This flexibility is expressed not only in the variety of data if offers, but also in how quickly data can be retrieved, and in the many ways it can be formatted and displayed on your screen. In fact, in our Readers’ Choice Awards published in our 1999 Bonus Issue, Quote.com finished in the top six under\nour “favorite Websites” category."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-593-96-product-review-qcharts-a-real-time-internet-service-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-593-96-product-review-qcharts-a-real-time-internet-service-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-593-96-product-review-qcharts-a-real-time-internet-service-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1mar597prod,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 March (597): Product Review:Listen Only Squawk Box"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Listen Only Squawk Box by John Sweeney
First, imagine the din and the uproar of the trading pit. Next, imagine having that in the environment of your\ntrading day. In the background, irreproducible on paper, is the din of the trading pit and screams of adjacent clerks. Coming over the same line as well are reports from other markets. The constant chatter speeds up,\nslows down, gets louder and gets softer with the flow of volume into the market. It’s exciting and nonstop.
Intrigued? Is this right up your alley? If so, you might want to look into Listen Only Squawk Box (LOS) from Technology Financial Group (TFG), which in essence makes you feel as if you are in the trading pit of the Standard & Poor’s 500 and broadcast real time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-597-product-review-listen-only-squawk-box-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-597-product-review-listen-only-squawk-box-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-597-product-review-listen-only-squawk-box-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1mar60prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 March (603-606): Product Review: Personal Hotline, version 7.2"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Personal Hotline Version 7.2 by Stuart P. Evens
Personal Hotline is a comprehensive end-of-day charting program for Apple Macintosh computers. The program includes an expert trading model and trade tracking. There’s an option to upgrade to Professional Analyst, Trendsetter’s real-time data, charting, and news software, for a modest charge plus real-time data fees. For this review, I looked at the end-of-day Personal Hotline software.
SETUP
I installed Personal Hotline on an Apple Power Macintosh 6100/66 using a T-1 line for data download from Dial Data over the Internet. Installation of the software was quick and easy, and data download went smoothly. A call to technical support during installation was answered quickly and produced easy answers. Within a half-hour or so I was charting and plotting indicators."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-603-606-product-review-personal-hotline-version-7-2-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-603-606-product-review-personal-hotline-version-7-2-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-603-606-product-review-personal-hotline-version-7-2-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1mar60prodr1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 March (607-609): Product Review: Internet Trader Pro, version 7"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Internet Trader Pro, Version 7 by John Sweeney
Window on WallStreet’s Internet Trader Pro, which in previous versions was known as Professional Investor Software, is a real-time package of stock data and analytics for interday traders and investors. Using Window on WallStreet’s own Financial Data Cast Network (which is a Standard & Poor’s datafeed plus the Window on WallStreet data servers), the Internet, and Internet Trader Pro (ITPro), Window on WallStreet (WOW) delivers charts, analytics, fundamentals, news, and light trading system development in real time.\nIt’s easy to get started with Internet Trader Pro. You can order the program on CD-ROM or download it over the Internet. With the CD comes a 480-page manual. Over the Internet comes a help function for some assistance to get going. You’ll be given access codes to allow the program to run on the Financial Data Cast Network (FDCN) Internet feed."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-607-609-product-review-internet-trader-pro-version-7-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-607-609-product-review-internet-trader-pro-version-7-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-march-607-609-product-review-internet-trader-pro-version-7-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1may568quic,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 May (568): Quick Scan: Mathematica Link for Excel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK-SCANS -- MATHEMATICA LINK FOR EXCEL
Now, you don’t need to leave Excel in order to compute and then come back. Wolfram Research has created a dynamic link between Excel and Mathematica that allows you to send data and equations to Mathematica, get the crunching done there and have the answers dumped back into Excel."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-may-568-quick-scan-mathematica-link-for-excel-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-may-568-quick-scan-mathematica-link-for-excel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-may-568-quick-scan-mathematica-link-for-excel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1may61prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 May (616-618): Product Review: IQ Chart"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: IQ Chart by John Sweeney
The source of IQ Chart’s attractiveness can be found in its daily and intraday charts served up via the Internet from IQC’s servers, rather than from your down-loaded database. In the rush of product in this category, IQ Chart is certainly competitive, but so far, also somewhat restricted in its options.
What are we seeing today in this line of product? We get a real-time (or close; five to 30 seconds behind real time) or delayed datastream. We always get stocks and sometimes we can get mutual funds, bonds and/or futures. We get news (headlines and stories), quotes, and quote pages. We get interactive charts with real-time or delayed intraday or interday information. We get a full suite of technical indicators plus drawing\ntools. We get company information directly or via free link to Internet resources. Sometimes, we get screening for something to trade. On occasion, we get portfolio monitoring and accounting/reporting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-may-616-618-product-review-iq-chart-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-may-616-618-product-review-iq-chart-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-may-616-618-product-review-iq-chart-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1nov569quic,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Nov (569): Quick Scan: Trading With Bollinger Bands"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK-SCANS: TRADING WITH BOLLINGER BANDS
John Bollinger has a well-deserved reputation in the technical analysis arena for his fine analysis and years of work in the financial markets. What he may be best\nknown for, however, is developing the Bollinger Bands indicator. In this videotaped presentation, Bollinger introduces the different functions of Bollinger Bands, allowing users to recognize the patterns involved and to take advantage of them in making trading decisions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-569-quick-scan-trading-with-bollinger-bands-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-569-quick-scan-trading-with-bollinger-bands-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-569-quick-scan-trading-with-bollinger-bands-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1nov571quic,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Nov (571): Quick Scan: MacTicker"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK-SCANS: MACTICKER
Having a continuous ticker tape scrolling across a desktop with no interruption is a great idea. MacTicker, a product that Aladdin Systems acquired from Galleon Software in July 1999, is a specialized Web browser that lets you view the indices, stocks, and mutual funds of your choice. Even though the data is delayed, it beats\nthe inconvenience of going to different Websites to retrieve information about specific stocks and mutual\nfunds in your portfolio."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-571-quick-scan-macticker-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-571-quick-scan-macticker-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-571-quick-scan-macticker-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1nov65prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Nov (652-654): Product Review: Unfair Advantage"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Unfair Advantage by John Sweeney
You may have thought all data these days resided on giant servers and only came to your machine when summoned. Not so! Those who study prices over time usually require the data on their own machines to facilitate their studies. Many vendors supply this need. Of those, Commodity Systems, Inc., is one of the most respected.
CSI started when statistician Bob Pelletier set off to get decent data for his own trading. Not satisfied with what he found, he started his own company and brought to\nit his own desire for precision and detail. The result was to create the most thorough, detailed, and accurate data service available. Unfair Advantage is the culmination of that process."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-652-654-product-review-unfair-advantage-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-652-654-product-review-unfair-advantage-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-652-654-product-review-unfair-advantage-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1nov66prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Nov (660-662): Product Review: Insider TA Pro, version 4.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Insider TA Pro, version 4.0 by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
Volume is an important factor in trading, but rarely do you stumble upon a complete technical analysis software package that focuses on it exclusively. Insider TA is such a package, offering you a number of appealing capabilities, all related specifically to volume analysis. If you’re familiar with the subject and interested in applying it, Insider TA is worth a try.
The program is based on Equivolume charting, a technique introduced by trader and sometime STOCKS & COMMODITIES contributor Richard Arms. Those not familiar with Equivolume, but interested in volume analysis, should read up on the subject in order to truly appreciate Insider TA. Also beneficial would be a visit to the Stock Blocks Website, wherein you can get an overview of the product, download a demo, go through a tutorial and upgrade your software to the most recent version."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-660-662-product-review-insider-ta-pro-version-4-0-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-660-662-product-review-insider-ta-pro-version-4-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-nov-660-662-product-review-insider-ta-pro-version-4-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1oct570quic,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Oct (570): Quick Scan: Symmetrics Stock Market Trading Strategy for 1999"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK-SCANS: SYMMETRICS STOCK MARKET TRADING STRATEGY FOR 1999
Technology has provided traders with the ability to create and analyze charts instantly with the click of a mouse. Because of the immediate nature of getting the charts you want these days, it’s not terribly common to find people who actually focus on the logic that goes into creating charts; the art of chart creation once used by famous technicians such as W.D. Gann has been practically lost. Reading Symmetrics Stock Market Trading Strategy will take you back to the almost-forgotten art of manually creating charts and show you a thoroughly disclosed trading strategy to boot."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-oct-570-quick-scan-symmetrics-stock-market-trading-strategy-for-1999-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-oct-570-quick-scan-symmetrics-stock-market-trading-strategy-for-1999-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-oct-570-quick-scan-symmetrics-stock-market-trading-strategy-for-1999-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1oct64prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Oct (648-652): Product Review: CQGnet"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: CQGnet by John Sweeney
Few names have more cachet in the trading data business than CQG. Years ago, CQG figured out how to provide reliable intraday and historical datastreams, constantly refreshable, and backed the entire package with top-flight service. Now they’ve taken the whole package to the Internet with CQGNet. (For a thorough review of the features of CQG For Windows, see the September 1998 STOCKS & COMMODITIES.)
CQGNet comes on a compact disc that installs the entire package on your hard drive, taking up about 30 MB of disk space. To launch the program, insert\nyour user name and a password. With your Internet connection established, the program seeks out home base and updates itself if any program up-dates have been released since your copy of the program was issued. During the two months I used CQGNet, it updated itself three times."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-oct-648-652-product-review-cqgnet-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-oct-648-652-product-review-cqgnet-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-oct-648-652-product-review-cqgnet-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
ver4voct65pr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Oct (655-659): Product Review: TradeStation2000i"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: TradeStation2000i by STOCKS & COMMODITIES Staff
TradeStation is no stranger to STOCKS & COMMODITIES. The Traders’ Tips department frequently runs TradeStation’s EasyLanguage code for selected articles, as many of our readers own earlier versions of TradeStation. TradeStation 4.0 was the 1998 Readers’Choice Awards winner in the trading analysis software category (over $500); in fact, TradeStation has been the winner in this category since 1993. This is not surprising, since Omega Research is a leader in trading system software development."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-oct-655-659-product-review-tradestation2000i-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-oct-655-659-product-review-tradestation2000i-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-oct-655-659-product-review-tradestation2000i-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1oc64prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 October (646-647): Product Review: AllocationMaster"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: AllocationMaster by John Sweeney
Some investment advisors have problems. Oh, sure,\nthey get fat fees for compensation, but their biggest problem is explaining risk and return to potential clients. If they can get that arcane concept across, they can then sell a host of assessment, asset allocation, repositioning, monitoring, and related services.
AllocationMaster not only helps with that problem but actually solves real issues using analytics based on modern portfolio theory (MPT). If you believe that most returns derived from the market are due to the size and the value versus growth choice, AllocationMaster may be your vehicle for determining how much goes where. The software steps both the advisor and the client through profiling the client’s portfolio and risk abhorrence, projecting cash flows for current and alternative portfolios, constraint specification (“Don’t sell any of the Microsoft!” is one example), optimization, and projected results. There is even a limited form of backtesting for the prospective portfolio."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-october-646-647-product-review-allocationmaster-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-october-646-647-product-review-allocationmaster-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-october-646-647-product-review-allocationmaster-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1sep64prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Sept (640-641): Product Review: EZ-PnF"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: EZ-PnF by John Sweeney
It isn’t flashy, it’s DOS, but it’s instantaneous, even by today’s standards. EZ-PnF, short for easy point and figure charting, takes us back to the days when programs didn’t have a lot of interfaces to slow things down. EZ-PnF has been dolled up to allow mouse-click\ncontrol but not much else. As a result, the program is lightning-quick.
You can download a shareware version of EZ-PnF that does everything except remember your session preferences: color of charts, location of your data, and so forth. Otherwise, it’s fully functional. If you like the program, send in the $20 and you’ll get a registered copy via E-mail."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-sept-640-641-product-review-ez-pnf-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-sept-640-641-product-review-ez-pnf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-sept-640-641-product-review-ez-pnf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1sep64prodr1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Sept (641-642): Product Review: Professional TradeAdvisor98"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Professional TradeAdvisor98 by John Sweeney
In Professional Trade-Advisor98 (PTA for short), Elliott wave theory is used to produce trading signals and to determine trend. Then candlestick formations, Fibonacci retracement levels, and pivot points are used to make forecasts and trading system calls. All this is disclosed by its developers, the brothers Hohenhorst, Steve and Larry, to the buyer in terms you can review on\nStelar International’s Website."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-sept-641-642-product-review-professional-tradeadvisor98-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-sept-641-642-product-review-professional-tradeadvisor98-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-sept-641-642-product-review-professional-tradeadvisor98-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1sep64prodr2,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter13"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:13 Sept (643-645): Product Review: MESA98"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: MESA98 by John Sweeney
The MESA98 program employs complex mathematics to make price predictions, measuring short-term cycles and determining the as cycle or trend. MESA stands for something most of us won’t ever get into: maximum entropy spectral analysis. Still, over the years, software developer John Ehlers has gone further than anyone in explaining how it works — in STOCKS & COMMODITIES articles, in seminars, and at his Website.
Before we look at the results, we’ll need data. MESA98 can read ASCII, CompuTrac, CSI, Ensign, FutureSource, MetaStock, Technical Tools, and TC2000 formats. Figuring this out may take some doing because, right out of the box, MESA98 presents a virtually blank screen, reminiscent of DOS. Click on the question mark icon to do some reading of the program’s instructions. (There is also a version of MESA98 that embeds itself in TradeStation, from which all files in Omega Research’s format may be tapped.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-sept-643-645-product-review-mesa98-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-sept-643-645-product-review-mesa98-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-13-sept-643-645-product-review-mesa98-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v166bookfort,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:14 (666-676): Books For Traders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A year's worth of book reviews from Stocks and Commodities magazine, conveniently listed in alphabetical order. Includes 80 titles that were published between 1999 and 2000."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-14-666-676-books-for-traders-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-14-666-676-books-for-traders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-14-666-676-books-for-traders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v171letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:1: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Have you\nrun across trading techniques, services or products that have proved useful? Tell us about\nit. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would\nnot exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@traders.com. Letters published may be\nedited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily\nrepresent those of the magazine. —Editor
QUESTIONS ANSWERED\nEditor,\nThe 1998 Bonus Issue I just received\nwith my new subscription to STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES was a godsend. During\nthe last four weeks I have been trying\ndesperately to match software and data\nwithout luck. With any luck, now I may\nhave most of my questions answered.\nGreat magazine.
TERRENCE MOHAMMED,\nvia E-mail
Thanks for writing. The brand-new 1999\nBonus Issue will be mailed by the New\nYear, and all our current, paid subscribers\nwill be receiving it, so look out\nfor it! The 1999 Bonus Issue will contain\nthe latest Software Comparison\nTable, the 1998 Readers’ Choice Awards\nfor products and services, classic articles,\nand more resources. We hope\nour subscribers will find it useful. —\nEditor
VALUABLE ARTICLE
Editor,\nI loved the article “Uncovering value in\nan oversold stock” in your October 1998\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES. This is just\nthe type of article that keeps me in the\ngame!
MIKE VEALE, via E-mail"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-1-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v110movavfir,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:2 (101-106): Moving Averages, First Principles by Brian J. Millard"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving Averages,\nFirst Principles
By Brian J. Millard
Don’t quite understand moving averages, but think that you\ncould benefit from using them? Here’s how to understand\nand apply moving averages to identifying trends in stocks.
Of all the technical indicators,\nmoving averages are perhaps\nthe most widely used and misunderstood.\nIncorrectly applied,\nas is usually the case, they may\nbe responsible for more losses\nthan any other indicator. Correctly\napplied, however, they\ncan be the most versatile and\npowerful tools available. The\nreasons for failure? First, a poor\nunderstanding of how stock\nprices move, and second, a poor understanding of the\nproperties of moving averages.
It is important to note that if the user does not attempt to\nunderstand how prices move, then applying any indicator is\na haphazard affair. Indicators tend to be developed by trial\nand error, and without a clear understanding of how they\nwork, using them can lead to disappointing — and disastrous\n— results.
STOCK PRICE MOVEMENT
The point-to-point movement model is based partly on the\none put forward by analyst J.M. Hurst a number of years ago\nand partly on my own research. In this model, stock movement\nis considered to be composed of random point-to-point\nmovement and complex cyclic movement. Point-to-point\nmovement is simply a generalization of the sampling interval\nand refers to the change between one data point and the next,\nsuch as “tick-to-tick,” “day-to-day,” and “week-to-week,” as\nwell as others."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-101-106-moving-averages-first-principles-by-brian-j-millard-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-101-106-moving-averages-first-principles-by-brian-j-millard-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-101-106-moving-averages-first-principles-by-brian-j-millard-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1107tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:2 (107): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS’ TIPS
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed by\nvarious developers of technical analysis software to help readers\nmore easily implement some of the strategies presented. Internet\nusers will also find these and some previous Traders’ Tips on our\nhome page at http://www.Traders.com.\n✦ METASTOCK
In “Trading Stocks With A Cyclical System,” Jeffrey Owen Katz\nand Donna McCormick introduce a system based on stock cycles.\nIn MetaStock 6.5 or higher, you can easily recreate this system.\nWith MetaStock running, choose System Tester from the\nTools menu, click on the New button and enter the following\nformulas:\n\nEnter Long\nthresh:= 4;\nk:= 3;\nm:= 63;\nValue1:= Stdev(Ref(ROC(C,k,$),-m),20);\nValue2:= Ref(ROC(C,k,$),-m);\nWhen(Value2 > thresh*Value1)\nEnter Short\nthresh:= 4;\nk:= 3;\nm:= 63;\nValue1:= Stdev(Ref(ROC(C,k,$),-m),20);\nValue2:= Ref(ROC(C,k,$),-m);\nWhen(Value2 <-thresh*Value1)\nStops\nInactivity\nPositions - Long and Short\nMethod - Points\nMinimum Change - 15000\nPeriods - 10
After entering the formulas, click OK, then click on Options.\nOn the Testing page, set the Trade Delay to zero, set Positions\nto “both,” then set any other desired options. Click OK to save\nthe changes, then open a chart and run the system.\n—Allan J. McNichol, EQUIS International\n800 882-3040, 801 265-8886\nhttp://www.equis.com"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-107-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-107-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-107-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v163tradstoc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:2 (63-67): Trading Stocks With A Cyclical System by Jeffrey O. Katz, Ph.D., with D.L. McCormick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Stocks With\nA Cyclical System
by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., with Donna L. McCormick
\nThere may be a tradable pattern in individual stocks\nand indices. Read about one way to systematically\nlook for and track this cycle.
More than a decade ago, we noticed\nthat a recurrent pattern\ncould be seen on the charts of\nindividual stocks as well as on\nthe indices. Roughly 90 calendar\ndays after the occurrence of\na large, sudden, strong move\n(mostly upward but sometimes\ndown), there would be a fairly good probability that\nanother such move would occur. The quarterly timing\nsuggested that the pattern was induced by the\noccurrence of surprises (for example, earnings surprises)\nassociated with corporate reports. When this\npattern was present — and it frequently was — it was\nquite dramatic: It could be used to predict turning\npoints in stocks (as well as in stock indices such as the\nStandard & Poor’s 500 index) months ahead with a\nfair degree of accuracy.
This forecasting pattern produced such good results\nthat we developed and marketed software based\nupon it: NexTurn for the S&P 500, and The Stock\nAnalyzer for individual stocks. Several years after\nwe discovered it, however, the pattern disappeared\nfrom the indices, and the software became moot.
Neither NexTurn nor The Stock Analyzer were\ncomplete trading systems; they had no entry or exit\norders but merely generated signals. Let’s see whether we can develop a successful trading system\nfor stocks based on the pattern we observed more\nthan a decade ago. We will be working in\nTradeStation and fully disclosing all trading logic\nand Easy Language source code."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-63-67-trading-stocks-with-a-cyclical-system-by-jeffrey-o-katz-ph-d-with-d-l-mccormick-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-63-67-trading-stocks-with-a-cyclical-system-by-jeffrey-o-katz-ph-d-with-d-l-mccormick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-63-67-trading-stocks-with-a-cyclical-system-by-jeffrey-o-katz-ph-d-with-d-l-mccormick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v168logspiri,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:2 (68-70): Log Spirals In The Stock Market by William T. Erman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Log Spirals\nIn The Stock Market
by William T. Erman
The basic mathematical characteristic of the log spiral is that\neven while increasing or decreasing in size, the log spiral\nremains constant. This is also true for rectangular spirals,\nthe parameters of which are determined by their related log\nspirals. Many major market moves share the properties and\npredetermined progression of these spirals, indicating the\nclose correlation between multiple manifestations of the\nordered form of nature and the architecture of markets\nthemselves.
Three important turning points\nbetween 1974 and 1978 have\ninfluenced the growth pattern\nof many subsequent major and\nminor market moves, up to and\nincluding the July 20, 1998,\npeak and the September and\nOctober 1998 lows for the Dow\nJones Industrial Average (DJIA)\nand the Standard & Poor’s 500,\nrespectively. Here’s how the\ntriangle in Figure 1, which connects the 1974 low for the S&P\n500 index with the 1976 peak and 1978 low, have influenced\nthese subsequent market moves. The triangle seen here\nconnects points 1, 2, and 3 from Figure 2. The points in Figure\n1 and 2 are those moves analyzed in this article."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-68-70-log-spirals-in-the-stock-market-by-william-t-erman-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-68-70-log-spirals-in-the-stock-market-by-william-t-erman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-68-70-log-spirals-in-the-stock-market-by-william-t-erman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v180treasbon,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:2 (80-83): Treasury Bonds And Gold by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Treasury Bonds And Gold
by Alex Saitta
Intermarket analysis, the comparison of price relationships\nbetween two different markets, is a valuable tool for traders\nand investors. Regular news reports often account for one\nmarket’s trend for the day as reacting to the change in\nanother. Interest rates and gold have had such a relationship\nto keep an eye on over the years, but the gold market has been prices fall because bond participants fear signs of inflation.\nUsing that logic, when gold falls significantly, it is a sign that\ninflation is lessening, so bonds rise at that time (Figures 1 and\n2). We tested this conventional wisdom using a four-step\napproach:\nlow-key of late. With that in mind, has the Treasury bond\nversus gold relationship held?
Gold has not been as volatile of\nlate as it was in the late 1970s\nand early 1980s, while the Treasury\nbond market has had a\nnumber of significant rallies and\ndeclines. This has not always\nbeen the case. There was a time\nwhen analysts pointed toward\none market’s movements as the\ndriving source for the activity\nin the other. The low volatility\nin the gold market has led some analysts to opine that the\nrelationship between gold and the T-bond market has broken\ndown and no longer exists. Upon close inspection, however,\nyou’ll see that the relationship between the changes in the\nprice of gold and the T-bond futures remains strong.
CONVENTIONS
Conventional thinking holds that when the price of gold rises\nsignificantly, it indicates that inflation has ticked up, so bond prices fall because bond participants fear signs of inflation.\nUsing that logic, when gold falls significantly, it is a sign that\ninflation is lessening, so bonds rise at that time (Figures 1 and\n2). We tested this conventional wisdom using a four-step\napproach:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-80-83-treasury-bonds-and-gold-by-alex-saitta-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-80-83-treasury-bonds-and-gold-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-80-83-treasury-bonds-and-gold-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v184desfunby,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:2 (84-86): Designer Funds by Gary H. Elsner, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Designer\nFunds
by Gary H. Elsner, Ph.D.
Mutual funds show a less than stellar performance relative to\nthe Standard & Poor’s 500 index. It should come as no\nsurprise, then, that Wall Street has responded by offering\nproducts that mimic the S&P 500. Going a step further, some\nfunds are set to do the exact opposite of the S&P 500 and\nthereby offer a hedge. Here are some guidelines.
The right financial instruments\nare the keys to great investing.\nOver the last four years, 90%\nof mutual fund managers have\nbeen outperformed by S&P\n500 index funds, so it is no\nsurprise that new funds created\nto outperform the S&P\n500 have attracted attention. I\nrefer to these as designer funds\nbecause they are designed to\nperform in specific ways, as opposed to having the simple\nobjective of maximizing returns.
As an example, the Rydex Nova fund is designed to have\n150% of the movement of the S&P 500. If the S&P 500 goes\nup 6%, Rydex Nova will go up approximately 9%. If the S&P\n500 goes down 6%, then Rydex Nova will go down about 9%.\nNot only that, recently introduced funds are designed to have\nmovements of up to 200% of the S&P 500. And there are\nfunds that move in an inverse relationship to the S&P 500 and\nthe NASDAQ 100 as well.
If we refer to these enhanced movements as leveraging, we\ncan create just about any degree of leveraging by investing\ndifferent amounts in one of these instruments and in a money\nmarket fund. Let’s take a look at the new designer funds,\nstudy how we can achieve various degrees of leveraging and\ndetermine ways in which these funds can be used in developing\nnew investment models."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-84-86-designer-funds-by-gary-h-elsner-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-84-86-designer-funds-by-gary-h-elsner-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-84-86-designer-funds-by-gary-h-elsner-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v187dirmovby,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:2 (87-94): Directional Movement by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Directional\nMovement
by Stuart Evens
There’s no way around it: Traders trade the trend, be it short\nterm or long term. It follows, then, that there is a need to\nidentify when a market is trending. Here’s J. Welles Wilder’s\ndirectional movement, a set of technical indicators designed\nto recognize trending markets.
Most technical trading methods\ncan be categorized into one of\ntwo types: Trend-following,\nwhich involves taking trades\nwith the trend, or range trading,\nwhich involves looking for reversal\npoints in a trading range.\nTraders need to determine if the\nstock they are trading is trending\nor in a trading range. The\nfact is, a system is specifically designed for a particular type\nof market condition, such as trend-following, and is not\nprofitable when a market is in another type of market condition,\nas in a range. In such cases, a trading range indicator,\nsuch as one that indicates overbought and oversold conditions,\nwill put you on the wrong side of a strong trend.\nIndividual indicators also exhibit this characteristic.
For example, some indicators like the moving average\nconvergence/divergence (MACD) work well when the stock\nis in a trend but then will give false signals when it is in a\ntrading range. Other indicators, like the stochastic oscillator,\nwork well when the stock trades in a range but it can give\npremature overbought or oversold signals in a trending market.\nRelying on indicators or trading methods in the wrong\nmarket conditions can cause painful losses.
A way to avoid this would be to determine the type of\nmarket that a tradable is in and then use appropriate indicators\nor trading methods. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that\nsystems have been developed to recognize when markets\nshift from a trading range to trending, and then signal long\nand short positions based on the indicated trend direction.\nOne of these systems, developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and\ndescribed in his book, New Concepts In Technical Trading\nSystems, is known as directional movement."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-87-94-directional-movement-by-stuart-evens-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-87-94-directional-movement-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-87-94-directional-movement-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v195intradsu,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:2 (95-100): Interview: Trading Success As A Point Of Reference: Ari Kiev, M.D. by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Success As A Point Of Reference: Ari Kiev, M.D.
Ari Kiev started out working with suicidal patients before going on to work\nwith athletes and now as a trader’s coach. He is a management consult-ant\nto several trading firms and is the author of numerous books,\nincluding the recent Trading To Win: The Psychology Of Mastering The\nMarkets. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Kiev\nvia telephone on November 24, 1998, asking him about working with\ntraders, his new book and more.
I argue that profitability isn’t dependent on the market.\nProfitability is dependent on what the traders themselves\ndecide to do. I argue that they trade in terms of the mental\nconcepts that they create for themselves. — Ari Kiev"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-95-100-interview-trading-success-as-a-point-of-reference-ari-kiev-m-d-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-95-100-interview-trading-success-as-a-point-of-reference-ari-kiev-m-d-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-95-100-interview-trading-success-as-a-point-of-reference-ari-kiev-m-d-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v172letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:2: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Have you\nrun across trading techniques, services or products that have proved useful? Tell us about\nit. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would\nnot exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@Traders.com. Letters published may be\nedited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily\nrepresent those of the magazine.—Editor
TRADERS’ TIPS
Editor,\nI’m a long-term subscriber to your magazine\nand I always look forward to the\nTraders’ Tips. However, they seem to\nhave disappeared for the past two issues,\neven though you referenced them\nin your December 1998 Letters column.\nWhat gives? Will you post November\nand December tips to your Website? I\nhope so!
BOB FINKELBERG, via E-mail
Traders’ Tips was unfortunately cut for\nspace considerations from the November\nand December 1998 issues, but the\nsection returned with our January 1999\nissue. The January Traders’ Tips column\nwas posted to our Website in mid-December,\nand February tips should be\nposted by the time you read this.—Editor
RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET
Editor,
I want to thank you and the staff of your\nmagazine for making great headway in\nthe sphere of technical analysis. Despite\nsome problems in the Russian\neconomy as a whole and the stock market\nin particular, we often find ways to\nimprove our knowledge of the market\nusing your publication.
DMITRY V. KAZIN\nHead of Research\nUNICOM Partner Brokerage\nEkaterinburg, Russia"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-2-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v110tecstuda,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:3 (109-115): Technical Studies And The Primary Cycle by Raymond A. Merriman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical Studies And The Primary Cycle
Cycle analysis offers the opportunity to identify windows\nof potential market bottoms and tops. Technical\nindicators can be used to time entries and exits in the\nstock at key points in the cycle. How well does this\nconcept work?
The primary cycle in the stock\nmarket is the centerpiece of cycle\nanalysis for traders as well as an\nimportant market timing tool for\ninvestors. Typically 17 weeks in length — with a\nwindow, or orb, of four weeks — the primary cycle\nis composed of smaller, short-term, subcycles known\nas phases. Further, the primary cycle itself is part of\nlonger-term cycles. The primary cycle in stocks —\nfor that matter, in any financial or commodity market\n— is the bridge between short-term and long-term\ncycles.
Before we analyze the primary cycle, let’s look at\nanother valuable approach for traders, that of multiple\ntime frame analysis. One of the most important\nsteps for accurate cycle analysis (and successful\ntrading) is to look at the market through the relation-ship\nof multiple time frames. Whether the user is a\ntechnical or cycles analyst or trades only by means of\npattern recognition, the rule is the same: Every time\nframe needs to relate to at least one other higher time\nframe, preferably two. Typically, successful traders\nwho trade mostly by technical studies will look at the trend of three time bands — a 30-minute chart, a 60-\nminute chart, and a daily chart. Those more oriented\ntoward position trading, on the other hand, tend to\nexamine daily, weekly, and monthly charts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-109-115-technical-studies-and-the-primary-cycle-by-raymond-a-merriman-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-109-115-technical-studies-and-the-primary-cycle-by-raymond-a-merriman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-109-115-technical-studies-and-the-primary-cycle-by-raymond-a-merriman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v111bolbanby,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:3 (116-123): Bollinger Bands by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Bollinger Bands
by Stuart P. Evens
This indicator combines popular technical methods — moving\naverages, support/resistance, and envelopes — with\nstatistical analysis to create a powerful technical analysis\ntool. Bollinger Bands, used in combination with the relative\nstrength index (RSI) to analyze a market, enables us to\ndevelop a method to enter and exit trades and review the\nhistorical results.
On a day-to-day basis, markets\ntrade in a volatile fashion\naround the trend. To better see\nthe trend, traders use moving\naverages to filter the price action.\nThis way, traders can\ngather important information\nregarding how the market is\ntrading. For example, after a\nsharp rise or fall in the trend,\nthe market may consolidate,\ntrading in a narrow fashion and crisscrossing above and\nbelow the moving average. To better monitor this behavior,\ntraders use price channels, which are designed to encompass\nthe trading activity around the trend.
Bollinger Bands are one such technical tool. Before we\ndiscuss Bollinger Bands, however, let’s have a quick look at\nsome other methods that traders have used.
Some technicians use moving averages with support and\nresistance lines to anticipate the price action of a stock. Upper\nresistance and lower support lines are first drawn and then\nextrapolated to form channels within which the trader expects\nprices to be contained. Some traders draw straight lines\nconnecting either tops or bottoms of prices to identify the\nupper or lower price extremes, respectively, and then add\nparallel lines to define the channel within which the prices\nshould move. As long as prices do not move out of this\nchannel, the trader can be reasonably confident that prices are\nmoving as expected."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-116-123-bollinger-bands-by-stuart-evens-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-116-123-bollinger-bands-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-116-123-bollinger-bands-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v112maxfavex,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:3 (124-127): The Maximum Favorable Excursion Strategy by D. Stendahl and L. Zamansky"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Maximum Favorable\nExcursion Strategy
by David C. Stendahl and Leo J. Zamansky
Maximum favorable excursion (MFE) is the peak profit that\na trade earns before the trade is closed out. Reviewing the\nperformance of a trading system allows us to measure the\ntendency of the MFE of the trades. This article explains how\nto use the information to enhance profitability.
Maximum favorable excursion\n(MFE), a concept originally created\nby John Sweeney to mea-sure\nthe distinctive characteristics\nof profitable trades, can be\nused as part of an analytical\nprocess to enable traders to distinguish\nbetween average trades\nand those that offer substantially\ngreater profit potential.\nUsing MFE analysis, traders can classify above-average performance\nduring a trade and thereby recognize opportunities\nto enhance profitability with the MFE risk management\nstrategy.
Following the strategy, traders can increase profit potential\nrelative to risk by adding to positions based on the trading characteristics of a system. This strategy can be used with all\nsystems, whether they are mechanized, discretionary, long,\nshort, intraday, or end of day. The returns of the system must,\nhowever, exhibit certain characteristics to take advantage of\nthis risk management strategy.
Since every trading methodology is different, it will take a\nthorough performance evaluation to determine if the MFE\nstrategy is suitable for the system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-124-127-the-maximum-favorable-excursion-strategy-by-d-stendahl-and-l-zamansky-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-124-127-the-maximum-favorable-excursion-strategy-by-d-stendahl-and-l-zamansky-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-124-127-the-maximum-favorable-excursion-strategy-by-d-stendahl-and-l-zamansky-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v112intalfro1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:3 (128-137): Interview: Tales From The Front: Robert Zellner by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tales From The Front: Robert Zellner
Robert Zellner, whose career has ranged from academic to institutional\ntrader to business manager before settling on full-time private trader,\nstarted off with his sights aimed on academia, despite a grandfather who was\na speculator in the 1920s and 1930s. But it wasn’t long before the family\ngenes came into play and Zellner stepped into the trading arena. He has\nworked for Cook Industries; Drexel Burnham Lambert; and Citibank\nFutures, among other financial firms. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor\nThom Hartle met Zellner when their careers overlapped at Drexel back in\nthe 1980s. Hartle interviewed Zellner via telephone on December 22, 1998,\nasking him about his work, past and present, his views on the markets, and\nhis philosophies about trading.
When you have a model that works well, it is very easy to just\nuse it and not pay any attention to the market. There are lots\nof things wrong with using computer models, but that is\nprobably the single worst thing about using them. It makes\nyou lazy. It prevents you from developing judgment. Computers\ncan prevent you from paying attention. — Robert Zellner"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-128-137-interview-tales-from-the-front-robert-zellner-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-128-137-interview-tales-from-the-front-robert-zellner-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-128-137-interview-tales-from-the-front-robert-zellner-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v113ratforma,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:3 (138-143): A Rationale For Managed Futures by Charles R. Lightner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Rationale For Managed Futures
by Charles R. Lightner
Although the futures markets are widely misunderstood even\namong knowledgeable investors, they serve a critical purpose\nin our economy; through the managed futures industry,\nthey provide an important investment opportunity for both\ninstitutions and individuals, and they need not expose the\ninvestor to unreasonable levels of risk.
Stocks, bonds, and real estate are\nthe largest and best-known types\nof investments in our economy.\nThey have distinctly different\ninvestment characteristics, and\neach has a specific effect on an\ninvestment portfolio. Over the\npast 20 years, the products of\nthe managed futures industry,\nwhich invests in the global futures\nmarkets, have also been\nshown to have unique, important,\nand beneficial effects when added to investment portfolios.\nManaged futures may represent the smallest of the\nalternative asset classes, but its characteristics are becoming\nbetter and better known and its value in an investment\nportfolio is becoming increasingly clear. Here’s a brief look\nat why managed futures perform as they do and how they can be understood in the context of the economic purpose served\nby the futures markets."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-138-143-a-rationale-for-managed-futures-by-charles-r-lightner-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-138-143-a-rationale-for-managed-futures-by-charles-r-lightner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-138-143-a-rationale-for-managed-futures-by-charles-r-lightner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v114tradnot,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:3 (144-145): Traders’ Notes"",""caption-linebreaks"":""For those traders who want a clear and\nbrief explanation of various concepts often\ntouched on in technical analysis and trading,\nwe offer Traders’ Notes.
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS
Intermarket analysis, one of the pillars\nof technical analysis, is the comparison\nof the price action of one market to\nanother. This comparison can be as\nsimple as placing two different charts\nside by side. The most widely endorsed\nuse of intermarket analysis hails from\nthe Dow theory, whereby the movement\nof the Dow Jones Industrial Average\n(DJIA) is compared with the Dow\nJones Transportation Average (DJTA).\nThe theory holds that if both averages\nare trending higher, the investor should\nconclude that the underlying fundamentals\ndriving the stock market are sound\nand that the trend of the market is up.\nWhen one of the averages begins to\ndiverge — for example, one average\ntrends to higher highs, while the other\naverage fails to make a higher high — a\nwarning is signaled (Figure 1) but not\nnecessarily a reversal, as the markets\nmay get in gear at a later point. The key\nis that intermarket analysis can aid the\ninvestor in determining the trend of the\nmarket as well as alert the investor to a\npotential trend reversal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-144-145-traders-notes-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-144-145-traders-notes-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-144-145-traders-notes-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v114tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:3 (146-148): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS’ TIPS
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed by\nvarious developers of technical analysis software to help read-ers\nmore easily implement some of the strategies presented.\nInternet users will also find these and some previous Traders’\nTips on our home page at http://www.traders.com.
TRADESTATION / SUPERCHARTS
In this issue’s interview with Robert Zellner, Zellner describes\na stochastic oscillator model with a fixed-bar exit. To\ncreate an indicator and system based on this model in\nTradeStation, we first need to create a function to calculate\nthe %K and %D stochastic oscillator lines as Zellner described\nthem. This function can be created in the Power\nEditor using the EasyLanguage shown below:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-146-148-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-146-148-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-146-148-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v173letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:3: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Have you\nrun across trading techniques, services or products that have proved useful? Tell us about\nit. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would\nnot exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@traders.com. Letters published may be\nedited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily\nrepresent those of the magazine.—Editor
NOVICE TRADER SERIES
Editor,\nIt’s a great idea that STOCKS & COMMODITIES\nincludes the Novice Trader\narticles. You will surely gain more new\nreaders with the series while not losing\nthe current ones. I’d like to suggest that\nin your future issues, you may want to\npresent such topics as Fibonacci, Elliott\nwave, and Dow theory basics.\nI’m not a security- or investment-related\nprofessional, but I like to trade.\nBeing a daytrader is out of the question\nfor me, but I want to catch intermediate\nup- and downtrends. Can you recommend\nsoftware that is not too costly and\nthat has good charting capabilities and\nindicators for weekly (not daily or\nmonthly) stock and index trends?\nRICHARD ZHU
Thanks for your suggestions. Regarding\nour novice articles, we have recently\nadded a Staff Writer, which will\nallow us to run more of the articles like\nthe ones you mention. With regard to\nsoftware, we publish product reviews\neach month. In addition, our 1999 Bonus\nIssue, available only to subscribers,\ncontains our Readers’ Choice\nAwards for favorite technical analysis\nsoftware, and our Website contains the\nSoftware Comparison Table, which details\nsoftware features. We can’t recommend\nindividual products to each of our\nreaders because everyone’s needs and\nbudgets are different, but we try to provide\nas much information as we can to\nhelp you narrow down your choices.—\nEditor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-3-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v115disfourt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:4 (151-158): The Discrete Fourier Transform Illusion by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""TheDiscreteFourier Transform Illusion by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
The Fourier transform is a mathematical technique\nfor analyzing data to determine cyclical component.\nTake a close look.
The Fourier transform is a mathematical\ntechnique named after\nmathematician Jean Baptiste Joseph\nFourier(1768-1830).Thatthis\ntechnique, devised long before any\nof the modern amenities that we\ntake for granted today, is widely\nused today in science and engineering\nfor digital signal processing\nis a remarkable accomplishment. The application\nof Fourier mathematical techniques is prevalent in\nour everyday lives in everything from television to\nwireless telephones to satellite communications.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES is certainly no stranger\nto Fourier analysis. Back in 1983, S&C publisher\nJack Hutson and Anthony Warren published a number\nof articles on using the Fourier transform and the\nfastFouriertransform(FFT) inanalyzingstockprices.\n(For a primer on the FFT process, see the sidebar,\n“What is a fast Fourier transform?”)
Here, we will take a different approach and examine\nhow the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) and its\nmodern implementation, the fast Fourier transform\n(FFT), can be applied to the Standard & Poor’s 500\ndaily index. I will demonstrate possible misuses of\nthis sophisticated analysis this time, and next time, I\nwill present a method to use this analytical process."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-151-158-the-discrete-fourier-transform-illusion-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-151-158-the-discrete-fourier-transform-illusion-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-151-158-the-discrete-fourier-transform-illusion-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v115ulinbyga,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:4 (159-164): The Ulcer Index by Gary H. Elsner, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Ulcer Index by Gary H. Elsner, Ph.D.
A good risk index can be useful in the selection of stocks,\nfunds, and trading systems. Here, then, is the ulcer index, why\nit is superior to the standard deviation statistic, and how it\ncan be used in a variety of personal investing or professional\nmoney management applications.
What is risk, and how is it measured?\nRisk is commonly defined\nin terms of the volatility of\nan investment’s total return or\nthe volatility of the price. The\nstandard deviation is a good\nmeasure of volatility, since it\nmeasures the amount of variation\naround the average and is\nprobably the most widely used\nmeasure of financial risk. But\nthe standard deviation has two weaknesses for financial instruments. First, it measures the variation from the average in both\nthe up (good) direction as well as the down (bad) direction.\nSecond, the standard deviation does not distinguish between\nshort or long sequences of losses. Investors are only concerned\nabout downside risk (or the potential for losses), whereas\nupside changes or rapid increases in value create profits."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-159-164-the-ulcer-index-by-gary-h-elsner-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-159-164-the-ulcer-index-by-gary-h-elsner-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-159-164-the-ulcer-index-by-gary-h-elsner-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v116chanbrea,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:4 (165-174): The Channel Breakout System by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Channel\nBreakout\nSystem by Mark Vakkur, M.D.
This is one of the simplest and oldest trading techniques,\nwhere trades are initiated based on price exceeding a given\nhistorical level. Here’s how the channel breakout system\nworks using the Value Line index, IBM, and the Fidelity\nSoutheast Asia Fund.
With the proliferation of affordable\nand powerful system-testing\nsoftware, it is tempting to\ncreate and optimize increasingly\ncomplex systems with\nmultiple rules, exceptions, and\ncorollaries. Often, however,\nless is more. One of the simplest\ntechnical analysis systems\nis also one of the most robust\nand effective: The channel\nbreakout system simply and elegantly forces the market\nparticipant to keep in sync with the major trend. Let’s explore\nthe classic channel breakout system, a system that does not\neven require a computer to use.
TO START WITH
Most technical analysis systems can be divided into trend-following\nand oscillating. Some of the oldest and best\nsystems, from point & figure charting to simple moving\naverage systems, are nothing more than an objective attempt\nto identify and follow a trend until it changes. If the\nmarkets had no noise, there would be no need for technical\nanalysis, no need to identify the most significant underlying\nmarket action.
Consider point & figure charting, which filters out all price\nmovements below a certain threshold, such as a three-box\nreversal. The resulting xs and os reveal patterns that might\notherwise escape the naked eye when viewing a standard bar\nchart and screen out others that might mislead you into a\npremature trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-165-174-the-channel-breakout-system-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-165-174-the-channel-breakout-system-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-165-174-the-channel-breakout-system-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v117compivan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:4 (175-185): Compound Pivots And Market Symmetry by William T. Erman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Compound Pivots\nAnd Market Symmetry by William T. Erman
Many traders see only simple symmetry such as a 20-week\nbottom-to-bottom move followed by another. Unfortunately,\nif indeed there is another 20-week cycle, it could very well\nturn out to be 18 weeks or 22 weeks instead of the anticipated\n20. Ermanometry, which was introduced to STOCKS & COM-MODITIES\nreaders in February 1999, considers a 20-day\nwindow, the four-week spread, to be of little help in today’s\ncomplex markets. Compound pivots are measured in days\ninstead of weeks and take into account that markets are both\nvery precise and spherical in character. They can be used to\nreveal market symmetry in increments of days and to illustrate\nthe fact that successive identical moves in three-dimensional\nspace may appear noncontiguous on the plane. Here,\ncompound pivots and balance points, both tools used for\ndecoding the hidden symmetry of the markets according to\nErmanometry, are explained.
Intermarket analysis and neural\nnetworks have popularized the\nadvantages of applying analytical\noutput from several markets\nto the analysis of just one.\nErmanometry’s compound pivots\nconcept is another method\nof combining markets to generate\nmore accurate projections\nwhen used for timing analysis.\nFor example, there is a definite\nsymbiotic relationship between the critical paths of the Dow\nJones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Standard & Poor’s 500.\nA similar relationship exists between old-crop and new-crop\nagriculturals, different maturities in the financials, and in\nmost other market categories. We’ll use the DJIA and S&P to\nfirst look at the definition of compound pivots, and then we’ll\nstudy some examples. Finally, we’ll see how compound\npivots can be effective in projecting future pivots."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-175-185-compound-pivots-and-market-symmetry-by-william-t-erman-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-175-185-compound-pivots-and-market-symmetry-by-william-t-erman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-175-185-compound-pivots-and-market-symmetry-by-william-t-erman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v118inholgra,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:4 (186-192): Interview: The Holy Grail Of Trading Is Within Us All: Van K. Tharp by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Holy Grail Of Trading Is Within Us All: Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Psychologist and trading coach Van K. Tharp is the president of the\nInternational Institute of Trading Mastery, Inc. He has spent the last 15\nyears working with more than 4,000 traders, and through this work, he has\nmanaged to identify themes and characteristics that are key among successful\ntraders. He’s developed a home study course on the trading process, but\nhis recent work has to do with the psychology of system development. He has\nwritten a book titled Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom, in which he\nanalyzes how great traders develop their systems and how they stay great.\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle and Tharp used E-mail to\nconduct this interview during the week of January 28, 1999, discussing the\nimportance of understanding your own belief systems and position sizing,\nand determining the steps to designing your own system.
The Holy Grail does exist, but it is an inner search. And\nonce you’ve undertaken that quest, learn position sizing\nstrategies. When you can understand how position sizing\napplies to your trading system, then you have a chance.\n— Van K. Tharp"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-186-192-interview-the-holy-grail-of-trading-is-within-us-all-van-k-tharp-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-186-192-interview-the-holy-grail-of-trading-is-within-us-all-van-k-tharp-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-186-192-interview-the-holy-grail-of-trading-is-within-us-all-van-k-tharp-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v119somrulto,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:4 (193-197): Some Rules To Trade By by Daryl Guppy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Some Rules\nTo Trade By by Daryl Guppy
\nA good trader will have a trading plan. Here are some\nguidelines for setting up your own trading rules.
In a raging bull market, it is\neasy to forget that markets\nmake us pay for our mistakes.\nIn a bull market, the rules are\nloose, the fools are many, and\nmoney seems inexhaustible. In\na bull market, traders from\nMain Street apparently make\nmoney as easily as traders from\nWall Street.
Eventually, however, the\nnovice trader must reach deep\ninto his pocket to pay for his or her losses. This should be\ncause for reflection, but more often than not, it turns out to be\nan excuse for blaming someone or something else. For the\ntrading survivors, it is a time to refresh their understanding of\nthe basic rules of trading.
The trading rules you’ll see here come from personal\nexperience and market insights. I use these observations as\npersonal trading rules. Like all my trading rules, they are\ndeveloped from experience to suit my specific trading style\nand personality and to compensate for my weaknesses.
Novice traders initially need to rely on the perceptions of\nothers in building their own trading rules. The specific rules\nyou finally adopt will be different. Take what is appropriate\nfor you from these 15 rules, adding to them and modifying\nthem to suit your trading style."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-193-197-some-rules-to-trade-by-by-daryl-guppy-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-193-197-some-rules-to-trade-by-by-daryl-guppy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-193-197-some-rules-to-trade-by-by-daryl-guppy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v174letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:4: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Have you\nrun across trading techniques, services or products that have proved useful? Tell us about\nit. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would\nnot exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@traders.com. Letters published may be\nedited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily\nrepresent those of the magazine.—Editor
MOVING AVERAGES AND CYCLES
Editor,
Brian J. Millard’s February 1999 S&C\narticle “Moving Averages, First Principles”\non moving averages fails to address\nimportant issues that arise when\nmoving averages (MA) are used in cyclical\nmodels. E. Slutsky’s 1937 article\n“Econometrica” told us that the moving\naverage transformation may induce the\nappearance of cycles where none exist\nin random data.
One practical approach may be to use\na second, different transformation to\ndetermine if a cycle with the same characteristics\n(wavelength, amplitude,\nphase) can be discerned in the data.\nExamining the closing price at the end\nof each week or the average closing\nprice (or first differences, as Millard\nsuggests) in each week are possible\nalternatives. Another strategy for those\nwith deeper mathematical skills is to\napply power spectrum analysis, which\ndecomposes the variation in data into\nthe sum of cycles, each with differing\ncharacteristics. Spectral analysis may\nconfirm the existence of cycles with\ncharacteristics similar to those shown\nusing the MA transformation.
Further, cycles sometimes appear in\ndata transformed by MAs because of\njust a few outliers or extreme values\nabove and below the trendline. Plotting\nthe raw data against the moving\naverage data may reveal whether just a\nfew datapoints are involved or whether\nmore pronounced, smoother cycles\nexist in the raw data. If in fact the\ncycles are caused by just a few outliers,\nthen entry and exit strategies must be\nmore carefully considered. To the extent\nthat more pronounced cycles can be discerned\nin the untransformed data, timing\nmay be easier.
ROBERT PHILIP WEBER, Ph.D.\nvia E-mail"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-4-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v119enfasfou,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:5 (199-208): The Endpoint Fast Fourier Transform System by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Endpoint Fast Fourier Transform System
Last time, we explored the Fourier transform, a\nmathematical technique for analyzing data to determine\ncyclical component. This time, we use the fast\nFourier transform as a trend determinant for a model\nfor trading the Standard & Poor’s 500.
In my previous article, “The Discrete\nFourier Transform Illusion,”\nwe demonstrated the misuses of\nthe Fourier transform mathematical\ntechnique as applied to the\nStandard & Poor’s 500 index. We\nshowed how fitting the Fourier\ntransform to the S&P 500 index\ndata series produced a perfect curve-fit on past data,\ngiving the illusion that this technique would predict\nthe major turning points of the S&P 500. However,\nwhen we examined the Fourier transform on a day-by-\nday walk-forward basis, this seemingly wondrous\npredictive capability disappeared.\nThis time, we will demonstrate how to use Fourier\ntransform using the computational algorithm called\nthe fast Fourier transform (FFT) on a walk-forward\nbasis on the S&P 500 continuous futures contract (SP)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-199-208-the-endpoint-fast-fourier-transform-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-199-208-the-endpoint-fast-fourier-transform-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-199-208-the-endpoint-fast-fourier-transform-system-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v120smarmonb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:5 (209-214): Smart Money by Scott Brown"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Smart Money by Scott Brown
Should you develop a personal trading system, one that\nreflects your own personality?
A belief persists among investors\nthat a select group of traders\nhave the inside edge. Some indicators,\nsuch as The Commitment\nOf Traders Report, try to\ntrack the activities of these traders.\nSome recent research may\nshed light on the composition\nof this group, as well as the\ntechniques that the Market\nWizards use to consistently\nbeat the market. Once the market participant understands the\nareas that make a difference, he can use this knowledge to\nimprove his trading performance.
MARKET VOLATILITY
Trading the markets is a social phenomenon. Investors are also\ngreatly influenced by mass psychology. This could explain\ntrendlines of markets in the limelight that have dramatic shifts in\nslope. An excellent example is the petroleum futures bubble at\nthe end of 1990 that was sparked by the Gulf War (Figure 1).\nIt could also explain stocks in low-volatility channels despite\nfavorable earnings, growth and dividends at the end of bear\nmarkets when public interest is low.
EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS
Random walk, or efficient market hypothesis (EMH), contends\nthat past, present and future prices accurately reflect\ninformation coming into the market. Economist Robert Shiller\nof Yale University is one of the leading challengers of\nstandard EMH. He emphasizes the role that popular opinion\ncould play in volatility. Shiller’s research indicates there is\nmore volatility in the market than the EMH model can account\nfor; price may not always reflect value."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-209-214-smart-money-by-scott-brown-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-209-214-smart-money-by-scott-brown-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-209-214-smart-money-by-scott-brown-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v121eurstruc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:5 (215-223): The Euro’s True Colors by Walter Bressert and Doug Schaff"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Euro’s\nTrue Colors by Walter Bressert and Doug Schaff
\nHow do you analyze the Euro, a currency that sprang to life\nwith no price history?
How do you analyze a full-fledged\ncurrency that came into\nbeing overnight? Despite its\nliteral lack of price history,\nmillions of foreign currency\nmarket participants — importers,\nexporters, investors, risk\nmanagers, not to mention others\n— instantly had exposures,\nlong or short, the moment the\nEuro took its first breath.
There is no doubt that fundamental\nfactors will determine\nthe Euro’s value, as they\nhave for the German mark, the\nFrench franc, and other currencies. The problem arises in\ninterpreting the direction and impact of gross domestic product\n(GDP), trade, interest rates, and politics in the short run. In\naddition, while fundamentals move the markets, they often\nlook the most bullish at tops and the most bearish at bottoms.\nOn July 9, 1998, the mark, the franc, and other European\ncurrencies made cycle lows. The currencies rallied in October\nof that year on the back of weaker US capital markets and\npositive anticipation for the Euro — talk of economic synergies,\na smooth start for the new currency, and capital flowing\ninto Europe."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-215-223-the-euro-s-true-colors-by-walter-bressert-and-doug-schaff-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-215-223-the-euro-s-true-colors-by-walter-bressert-and-doug-schaff-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-215-223-the-euro-s-true-colors-by-walter-bressert-and-doug-schaff-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v122usconins,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:5 (224-227): Using A Constant Investment Size For Stock Trading Systems by Jack Schwager"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using A Constant Investment\nSize For Stock Trading Systems by Jack Schwager
The highest high to the lowest low in the price history of an\nindividual stock can vary tremendously, especially when\nstock splits occur. This large range of price history can\ndistort the returns of a trading system. This noted analyst\nexplains the steps to adjusting stock data to avoid these\ndistortions.
At first glance, the issue of price\ndata appears to be far more\nstraightforward for stocks than\nit is for futures. The system\ndeveloper in futures is faced\nwith the significant problem that\nthe life span of individual futures\ncontracts is limited. This\nrequires linking different futures\ncontracts into a single series.\n(Readers interested in an\nevaluation of different approaches\nin linking futures contracts should refer to my\narticle in the October 1992 STOCKS & COMMODITIES.) Stock\ntraders would appear to be spared any price data–related\ncomplications insofar as each stock is a single price series.
Not so fast! Although stock price data can be used without\nmodification, doing so without an additional adjustment can\nlead to enormous distortions. Most of those testing trading\nsystems on stock data commit a major error. The crux of the\nproblem? When a system is tested, the implicit assumption is\nthat each trade is for the same share size. Imagine testing a\nsystem on a portfolio of stocks ranging in price from $2 to\n$100. Would it be reasonable to test the system using an\nassumption of equal share size in all markets?
Figure 1 illustrates the consequences of trading two disparately\npriced stocks ($2 and $100) in the same position size. As\ncan be seen in the top table, an equal dollar-price change in\neach stock would have an equal impact on profit/loss but\nrepresent a 50% change in the low-priced stock and only a 1%\nprice change in the high-priced stock. The lower table shows\nthat an equal percent-price change in each stock would have\n50 times the dollar impact in the high-priced stock as in the\nlow-priced stock. It makes no sense to trade stocks priced at\nwidely disparate levels in the same position size."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-224-227-using-a-constant-investment-size-for-stock-trading-systems-by-jack-schwager-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-224-227-using-a-constant-investment-size-for-stock-trading-systems-by-jack-schwager-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-224-227-using-a-constant-investment-size-for-stock-trading-systems-by-jack-schwager-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v122inthowto,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:5 (228-233): Int.: How To Get Started In Electronic Day Trading: David Nassar by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How To Get Started In Electronic Day Trading:\nDavid S. Nassar
Each day, more and more traders are using computers for the direct buying\nand selling of stocks. Is there a difference among the myriad services\navailable? We went to David Nassar, author of How To Get Started In\nElectronic Day Trading, to get the rundown on what is available for today’s\ntraders. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Nassar\nvia phone on February 23, 1999, about the difference between online\ntrading and electronic direct access trading, what to consider if you\nseriously want to daytrade, and more.
Without a solid education, technology will only help you accelerate\nyour losses. Trading is about making decisions based on\ndoing your homework and giving yourself a statistical edge.\nMany individuals start out wanting to trade and have access to\nsystems like electronic direct access trading, but they don’t\nwant to invest in the education or do the work. — David Nassar"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-228-233-int-how-to-get-started-in-electronic-day-trading-david-nassar-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-228-233-int-how-to-get-started-in-electronic-day-trading-david-nassar-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-228-233-int-how-to-get-started-in-electronic-day-trading-david-nassar-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v123onvolbys,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:5 (234-240): On-Balance Volume by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On-Balance\nVolume by Stuart Evens
What do technicians look at in order to qualify the significance\nof a trend? One key element is volume, in that high\nvolume in a trend indicates that large players may be involved.\nThe theory goes that large traders are better informed,\nso the trend is likely to continue. How can you track\nvolume? Does a volume-based indicator help the analyst and\ntrader? Take a look.
One of the better-known technical\nindicators to track volume\nis the on-balance volume\n(OBV). The OBV line is simply\na running sum calculated by\nadding or subtracting the\nsecurity’s daily volume from\nthe previous day’s OBV value,\ndepending on whether the\nsecurity‘s closing price was up\nor down for the day. The OBV\nline is usually plotted as a line above or below the price bar\ngraph of the security (Figure 1). Two popular uses of this\nindicator is to watch for confirmation of the price trend by the\nOBV line, indicating that the volume is increasing in the\ndirection of the trend, and forewarning of a trend reversal by\nthe divergence between the direction of the OBV line and the\nprice trend. Let’s look at the initial method and theory.
OBV PHILOSOPHY
OBV creator Joseph Granville first presented the concept of\nOBV in Granville’s New Key To Stock Market Profits. In\ndeveloping this tool, Granville started with the premise that\nmarket participants are divided into smart money entities and\nthe general public. He assumed that the smart money was able\nto accumulate stock at lower prices compared with that of the\npublic based on their having better information.
During a bull market, Granville theorized, smart money\ninitially bids prices up and then only participates in the\nbuying for the first-half to two-thirds of the move. At that\npoint, smart money players are fully invested and are now\nholding for the last third of the move, planning to sell out at\nthe top. He opined that this is just when most of the public is\nstarting to notice the runup in prices and is buying the stock.\nThis sets the stage for the smart money, who then dumps\nstock to the public."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-234-240-on-balance-volume-by-stuart-evens-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-234-240-on-balance-volume-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-234-240-on-balance-volume-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v124sizfuttr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:5 (241-245): Sizing A Futures Trading Account by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sizing A Futures\nTrading Account\nby Jay Kaeppel
While most traders start out working on a trading system,\nthey forget that the amount of starting capital is equally\nimportant. Here are some guidelines to consider.
Novice traders focus their attention\non developing a system for\nentering and exiting the markets.\nIn fact, an entire industry has\nbeen spawned to facilitate trading\nsystem development. The\nage-old quest for the Holy Grail\nfuels the simplistic attitude\namong new traders that if their\ntiming is good enough, everything\nwill work out. Only after a\ntrader has become seasoned and\ntaken some hits does his or her attention become more focused\non money management. While money management is a broad\nsubject, one crucial topic — sizing an account — is key.
Before a trader can start trading a portfolio of different\ncontracts, he or she should determine how much capital is\nneeded. Unfortunately, topics such as sizing an account tend\nto be an afterthought for most new traders — until, that is,\nthey suffer a drawdown of frightening or ruinous proportions.
THREEFOLD DANGER
The dangers in failing to size an account properly are three-fold:\nThe first and greatest danger is that you might tap out\n(that is, lose all your money). Consider the naive trader who\nopens an account with $20,000 and begins trading a group of\nmarkets using the trading system he spent hundreds of hours\ndeveloping. While the trader has total confidence in the buy\nand sell signals generated by the system, he fails to do enough\nhomework regarding expected equity swings. He doesn’t\nknow that the portfolio/system combination routinely experiences\nequity swings of $15,000. Of course, he could get\nlucky, start making money right off the bat, and then be able\nto sit through a subsequent $15,000 drawdown. It’s more\nlikely, however, he will suffer a $15,000 drawdown at some\npoint and stop trading altogether because he was not prepared\nfinancially for the huge percentage swings in equity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-241-245-sizing-a-futures-trading-account-by-jay-kaeppel-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-241-245-sizing-a-futures-trading-account-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-241-245-sizing-a-futures-trading-account-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v124ofgoland,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:5 (246-248): Of Gold And Bonds, Gold Is The Leader by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Of Gold And Bonds,\nGold Is The Leader\nby Alex Saitta
Does gold lead the bond market, or is it the other way\naround?
Previously, we uncovered strong\ncoincidental relationships between\ngold and the dollar, inflation,\nbonds and the CRB index.\nAs bond traders, though, we are\nmost interested in the relationship\nbetween gold and the bond\nmarket. Looking at the past 20\nyears of data (Figure 1), we noticed\ngold’s reversals have led bond yield reversals. Looking\nbeyond the peaks and valleys and considering all the data,\ndoes gold have a tendency to lead the bond market?
To answer this question, we applied basic statistical analysis\nto measure relationships between two series of data.\nCorrelation analysis measures the degree of association between\nall the data points of two series. The product of this\nmathematical comparison is referred to as the correlation\ncoefficient. Correlation coefficients range from -1.0 to +1.0\nand identify the direction as well as the strength of a relationship\nbetween the two series being compared.
For example, a coefficient of +1.0 represents a perfect\npositive relationship. When one variable rises, the other rises in lockstep. When one falls, the other falls in lockstep. A\ncoefficient between zero and less than +1.0 is a nonperfect\npositive relationship. When one variable rises, the other\nusually rises somewhat. When one falls, the other usually\nfalls somewhat."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-246-248-of-gold-and-bonds-gold-is-the-leader-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-246-248-of-gold-and-bonds-gold-is-the-leader-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-246-248-of-gold-and-bonds-gold-is-the-leader-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v175letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:5: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Have you\nrun across trading techniques, services or products that have proved useful? Tell us about\nit. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would\nnot exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@traders.com. Letters published may be\nedited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily\nrepresent those of the magazine.—Editor
VOLATILITY INDICATOR
Editor,
The September 1998 article “Trading\nThe Trend” by Andrew Abraham, in\nwhich he presented a volatility indicator,\ndoesn’t provide the information\nnecessary for the educated layman who\nis interested in technical analysis. In\nmy opinion, it should have provided\nmore detail on some areas.
I understand the calculation of a 21-\nperiod weighted average of the true\nrange, but why is the final value multiplied\nby 3? Is the volatility indicator in\na rising market calculated by subtracting\nthe 21-period weighted average of\nthe true range from the highest close in\nthe same 21-period?
Then when the market closes below\nthe volatility indicator, is the volatility\nindicator calculated by adding the next\nday’s value of the 21-period weighted\naverage of the true range to the lowest\nclose in the 21 periods? I hope you can\nclarify this for me.
TONY RAMSELAAR, via E-mail
Weert, The Netherlands
The volatility indicator discussed by\nAbraham in the article was originally\nintroduced by J. Welles Wilder in New\nConcepts In Technical Trading, published\nby Trend Research in 1978, available\nfrom the Delta Society (336 698-\n0500). Wilder explains that the constant\nused in the volatility system can\nrange from 2.80 to 3.10 and was found\nby testing. The volatility indicator is a\ntrailing stop-and-reverse approach.\nThe volatility indicator is the average\ntrue range multiplied by the constant\nand subtracted from the highest close\nfor long positions. Thus, if you are\nlong, you should go short if the market closes below the volatility indicator.\nWhile you are short, the volatility indicator\nis added to the lowest close, and\nyou go long if the market closes above\nthe volatility indicator.
I hope this helps to fill in the gaps for\nyou.—Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-5-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v125howsmoot,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:6 (251-256): How Smooth Is Your Data Smoother? by Patrick E. Lafferty"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How Smooth Is Your Data Smoother? Traders use moving averages to remove random fluctuations from price data. Some moving averages work better than others. Take a look. In 1995, I wrote an article for STOCKS & COMMODITIES presenting some of the properties of three methods for removing random noise from financial time series. I discussed the lags between the turning point of a simple test data sequence and the turning points of three types of moving averages. I showed that for equal moving average periods, the three moving averages had markedly different lag characteristics. Specifically, for each period, an endpoint moving average (EPMA) had a smaller lag than an exponential moving average (EMA), and both the EPMA and EMA had smaller lags than the corresponding simple moving average (SMA). While it is important to define the lag characteristics of a data smoother, there is another, even more basic, question that must be addressed about the performance of the smoothing function. How smoothly does the smoothing function smooth the data?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-251-256-how-smooth-is-your-data-smoother-by-patrick-e-lafferty-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-251-256-how-smooth-is-your-data-smoother-by-patrick-e-lafferty-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-251-256-how-smooth-is-your-data-smoother-by-patrick-e-lafferty-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v125howsmoot1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:6 (257-259): Buy-And-Hold Comparisons To Evaluate Stock Trading by Jack Schwager"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Buy-And-Hold Comparisons\nTo Evaluate Stock Trading by Jack Schwager
Benchmark comparisons are a standard technique for the\nperformance of a trading system. One particular benchmark\nis the buy-and-hold approach. This noted market analyst\nlooks at the steps to using it.
Just because a trading system\nmakes money in the stock market\ndoesn’t mean it’s a good\nsystem. After all, it is possible\nfor a system to do well but still\nfall short of the results that could\nhave been realized by a simple\nbuy-and-hold approach. The key\nquestion in testing a stock market system is: How does the\nsystem compare with the buy-and-hold approach?
THE PROBLEM\nAnswering this question is not as simple as it might appear.\nIn my previous article, we showed why a constant share size\ntrade assumption led to severe distortions in testing trading\nsystems and why a constant dollar trade size assumption was\nfar preferable. The problem, however, is that system results\nbased on a constant dollar trade size — for example, $1,000\n— cannot be directly compared with buy-and-hold results for\nthe same number of shares as the first trade.
To understand why, assume a stock is trading at $5 at the\nstart of the test period before it then advances to $50 by the\nend of the survey period. In this case, 200 shares, which equal\n$1,000 at the start, would equal $10,000 at the end. In\ncontrast, the constant dollar trade size system results would\ncontinue to assume a $1,000 trade size on each signal.
As a result, the buy-and-hold case would assume a much\nlarger average position size as time elapsed. Consequently, a\ncomparison between the system results and buy-and-hold\nresults would be that of the proverbial apples and oranges."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-257-259-buy-and-hold-comparisons-to-evaluate-stock-trading-by-jack-schwager-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-257-259-buy-and-hold-comparisons-to-evaluate-stock-trading-by-jack-schwager-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-257-259-buy-and-hold-comparisons-to-evaluate-stock-trading-by-jack-schwager-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v126pseudsec,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:6 (260-266): Pseudo Securities For Technical Analysis by Charles E. Miller"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pseudo Securities For\nTechnical Analysts\nAs you develop your analytical skills, you probably pick a\nfavorite market to study. So depending on the market, you\ncould come to different conclusions about the value of different\ntechniques of analysis. With that in mind, what if you used\nartificial data with distinct properties as a basis for learning\nthe attributes of technical methods? In this, the first of a threepart\nseries, we explore the notion of using pseudo securities.\nThe objective of technical analysis\nis to locate securities with the\nnecessary volatility to make potentially\nprofitable round turns,\nand to predict, based on available\nhistorical data, suitable entry\nand exit points. Although the\nchart of the fictitious Omniscient,\nInc. [OICT], shown in\nFigure 1 suggests it is a reasonable candidate, each technician\nwill have his or her own approach to predicting price movements.\nSupport lines, channels, indicators — which would be\nthe correct tool?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-260-266-pseudo-securities-for-technical-analysis-by-charles-e-miller-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-260-266-pseudo-securities-for-technical-analysis-by-charles-e-miller-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-260-266-pseudo-securities-for-technical-analysis-by-charles-e-miller-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v126studrisb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:6 (267-269): Studying Risk Behavior by Ari Kiev, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Studying Risk\nBehavior
Taking risk and taking losses are two different parts of\ntrading. Here’s how to manage the emotional side of risktaking.\nby Ari Kiev, M.D.\nIf you think about it, the markets\nare a natural laboratory for studying\nrisktaking behavior, especially\ndecisionmaking in a volatile,\nunpredictable, and uncertain\nenvironment. It is the given\ntask of the trader to reduce risk\nby identifying patterns in sectors,\ncompanies in specific as\nwell as the marketplace in general.\nThis can be an extremely difficult task for even the most\nsophisticated of traders as we have seen in the past year, due\nto not only the turbulence in Asia and the falloff in Russia and\nLatin America, but the turmoil in European markets as well.\nNot only have traders had to deal with the uncertainty and\nthe volatility and illiquidity of the markets, they have had to\ncontend with the psychological consequences of failure and,\nin many instances, newly discovered vulnerability. They\nhave had to deal with loss."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-267-269-studying-risk-behavior-by-ari-kiev-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-267-269-studying-risk-behavior-by-ari-kiev-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-267-269-studying-risk-behavior-by-ari-kiev-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v127eursweek,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:6 (270-274): The Euro’s Weekly Cycles by Walter Bressert and Doug Schaff"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Euro’s\nWeekly Cycles\nAs a followup to last month’s introduction to the newborn\nEuropean currency, here’s what may happen to the Euro.\nn January 4, 1999, the 40odd\nyears of planning and 10 years of\npolitical and economic work paid\noff as the Euro began trading in\na calm, orderly manner. But\nwhat’s the bottom line? How\nwill improved efficiencies from\na single currency affect Europe’s\ncompetitiveness? When will the\nEuro’s status as a reserve currency\nbegin to shift demand\naway from US dollars?\nThe brandnew European Central Bank (ECB) is determined\nto establish its credibility. Europeans, on the other\nhand, having accepted large doses of fiscal and monetary\ntightening to establish the Euro, are now ready for payback in\nthe form of economic growth.\nIn the midst of this uncertainty, it’s not so surprising that\nthe Euro initially put in a weak price performance. Starting\noff at 1.1630, it quickly put in its high just above 1.1900 and\nby mid-February had traded down to 1.1200. The fundamentals\nwill probably sort themselves out by summer. By then,\nthe economic slowdown in Europe will most likely be over.\nIn the meantime, cycle analysis offers guidelines regarding\ntime and price levels at which the Euro should bottom. Let\nus apply additional technical tools, oscillators, and trend\nindicators to develop a trading methodology for the Euro\nusing weekly cycles."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-270-274-the-euro-s-weekly-cycles-by-walter-bressert-and-doug-schaff-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-270-274-the-euro-s-weekly-cycles-by-walter-bressert-and-doug-schaff-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-270-274-the-euro-s-weekly-cycles-by-walter-bressert-and-doug-schaff-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v127indougfa,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:6 (275-280): Interview: Doug Fabian Of Fabian Investment Resources by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Keeping Investing Simple\nDoug Fabian Of\nFabian Investment\nResourcesFor mutual fund investors, one of the bestknown newsletters is Fabian\nInvestment Resources, previously known as Telephone Switch Newsletter. It\nwas begun by financial planner Dick Fabian, whose 1976 book, How To Be\nYour Own Investment Counselor, triggered enough response for him to start\nthe newsletter the following year. Since then, the newsletter has prospered,\nwith Fabian’s son, Doug, later picking up the reins and expanding its\nhorizons. Editor Thom Hartle talked to Doug Fabian via telephone on March\n24, 1999, asking him about, among other topics, the key points to the Fabian\nmethodology, how he determines the trend of the stock market, and how\nbacktesting an idea is crucial.
Let’s start at the beginning.\nCan you give me some\npersonal history as well as\nsome of the firm’s history?\nWe’re celebrating the 22nd anniver-sary\nof the Telephone Switch Newslet-ter,\nwhich became Fabian Investment\nResources in 1993. My father first pub-lished\nthe newsletter 22 years ago, after\nhe self-published his book How To Be\nYour Own Investment Counselor, which\nhe wrote after the 1973-74 bear market.\nThe book followed the advent of the\nmoney market fund and the telephone\nexchange feature within mutual fund\nfamilies. His premise was that stocks\nwere the place to invest to grow your\nportfolio, and mutual funds were, and\nare, the simplest way to participate in\nthe stock market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-275-280-interview-doug-fabian-of-fabian-investment-resources-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-275-280-interview-doug-fabian-of-fabian-investment-resources-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-275-280-interview-doug-fabian-of-fabian-investment-resources-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v128yielspre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:6 (281-283): Yield Spread Tunnels by Lorne W. Rae"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Yield Spread\nTunnels\nFixed income investors have an array of instruments in which\nto invest. They can choose from an assortment of maturities as\nwell as credit quality. Here’s a simple technique with which to\nidentify opportunities in the fixed-income market.
One common technique for assisting\nfixed-income investors and traders in their decision making is the analysis\nof yield spreads. A yield spread is\nthe difference in yield to maturity\n(or that discount rate which equates\nthe present value of a bond to its\nmarket value) between two bonds.\nThe spread is expressed in terms of\nbasis points (each 1 /100 of 1%), and\nyield spreads occur because bonds vary in maturity, in\ncoupon, in marketability, and in quality."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-281-283-yield-spread-tunnels-by-lorne-w-rae-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-281-283-yield-spread-tunnels-by-lorne-w-rae-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-281-283-yield-spread-tunnels-by-lorne-w-rae-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v128tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:6 (284-286): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""•METASTOCK\nIn the May 1998 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, a Traders’\nTip provided MetaStock formulas for calculating support\nand resistance levels and the WRO and WSO support and\nresistance oscillators. The Traders’ Tip was based on my\narticle, “Automated Support And Resistance,” also in that\nissue. Since then, I’ve received many E-mail messages from\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES readers about it.
•METASTOCK\n“How Smooth Is Your Data Smoother?” by Patrick E. Lafferty\nin this issue reviews different types of moving averages,\nincluding a sine-weighted moving average. The sine-weighted\nmoving average can easily be created in MetaStock 6.5 or\nhigher. In MetaStock, select Indicator Builder from the Tools menu."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-284-286-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-284-286-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-284-286-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v176letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:6:LETTERS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""ELECTRONIC DAYTRADING\nEditor,\nAs a long-time subscriber to your magazine,\nI would like to ask why I haven’t\nseen any articles on electronic or online\ntrading. That being the case, could you\nrecommend some books or other sources\nof information so that I can get a better\nunderstanding of this new means of\ntrading stocks?\nROBERT CAMPBELL, via E-mail\nIn the May 1999 STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nwe presented an interview with\nDavid Nassar, author of How To Get\nStarted In Electronic Day Trading. The\nother recent article was Mark Conway’s\n“Daytrading Stocks” in our August 1998\nissue.—Editor
BOLLINGER BANDS &\nRELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX\nEditor,\nI found Stuart Evens’ March 1999 Novice\nTrader article “Bollinger Bands”\ninteresting. I am now doing some exhaustive\nbacktesting on more than a\ndozen commodity markets in order to\nbuild decent trading systems.\nI incorporated the MetaStock code\ngiven in the article into my series of\ntests to compare it with other systems\nI’m testing and developing, and it has\nits merits in some markets.\nAs I continue to refine a system, I\nlook for opportunities to incorporate\ndifferent indicators.\nFRANK SVEJDA, via E-mail\nCave Creek, AZ"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-6-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v128sysfortr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (289-297): A System For Trading Fidelity Select Funds by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A System For Trading Fidelity Select Funds by Jay Kaeppel
The key techniques for trading stocks, options, and\nfutures can also be applied successfully to mutual\nfunds. Here’s a systematic approach to mutual fund\ntrading.
Several keys to investment and\ntrading success are universal;\nthese keys apply to stock, futures,\nand options trading, and\nthey also apply to trading mutual\nfunds. The first key is to\nidentify opportunities with\nabove-average profit potential.
The second is to determine how\nbest to take advantage of those\nopportunities without taking on too much risk. Achieving\nthe proper balance is of paramount importance; if\nyou never take enough risk, you never allow yourself\nthe opportunity to achieve above-average gains. Conversely,\nif you take on more risk than you can handle,\neventually you will find yourself bailing out at the\nwrong time. The mutual fund trading system I will\nexamine is designed to achieve such a balance.
The Fidelity family of funds offers a unique set of\nopportunities via their Select group of funds. Each\nSelect fund concentrates its portfolio in a specific\nindustry group or sector — for example, brokerage,\ndefense, health care, regional banks, and airlines, to\nmention only a few. These funds offer investors\nunique opportunities as well as unique risks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-289-297-a-system-for-trading-fidelity-select-funds-by-jay-kaeppel-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-289-297-a-system-for-trading-fidelity-select-funds-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-289-297-a-system-for-trading-fidelity-select-funds-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v129coramsto,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (298-304): Correlation Among Stocks by Michael P. Turner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CorrelationAmong Stocks by Michael P. Turner
If you are trading stocks, you may find opportunities by\ntracking the correlation between them. This can lead to\ndifferent strategies such as trading one company off of\nanother’s news, spread trading, and sector trading. The\ntechniques described here were adapted from the book Day\nTrading Into The Millennium, available from http://\nwww.tradersresource.com.
In today’s financial markets, a relationship,\nor correlation, exists\namong all securities. Sometimes\nthere is a positive correlation,\nsometimes there is a negative\ncorrelation, and sometimes\nthere is no correlation whatsoever.\nStatisticians have a way to\nmeasure the relationship between\ntwo data series. This statistic is\ncalled the correlation coefficient.
A correlation coefficient is described by a range that spans\nfrom -1 to 1. Securities that are positively correlated will\nmove in tandem with one another and have a correlation\ncoefficient value near or at 1. Stocks that are negatively\ncorrelated will move opposite one another and will have a\ncorrelation coefficient near or at -1."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-298-304-correlation-among-stocks-by-michael-p-turner-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-298-304-correlation-among-stocks-by-michael-p-turner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-298-304-correlation-among-stocks-by-michael-p-turner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v130howgreat,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (305-308): How Great Traders Go Bad by John A. Sarkett"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How\nGreat Traders\nGo Bad
As traders achieve success and higher levels of profitability,\nthey become more at risk for failure. The problem? Their\negos get in the way of their success. Here’s how to stay the\ncourse.\nLike a pilot, a police officer, or a\ntrapeze artist, a professional\ntrader knows he must follow the\nrules just to stay alive. Usually,\nthis thought is enough to focus\nthe mind. But occasionally, the\nrealization is lost. Mistakes follow.\nLosses mount. An otherwise\ngreat trader succumbs. A\ngreat trader goes bad.\nHow to avoid that tragic circumstance\nwas the subject of a\nrecent Futures Industry Association\n(FIA) presentation in Chicago by professional trader and\ntrading coach Ray Kelly. “Large traders trade more zeroes than\nsmall traders, but the process is the same,” he opined.\n“The catalyst for destruction,” Kelly says, “is most often\nego.” Ego is the Ebola virus to the active trader. There is an\nantidote, however: humility. At the onset of paralyzing ego,\nhumility must be administered at once, or results can be fatal.\nIt is even more effective if administered in advance, not\nunlike a vaccine.\nCan you or I become infected? Of course. What can be\ndone to protect against ego and its devastating effects?\nKelly suggests paying close attention to the following four\nareas: self-knowledge, market knowledge, trading strategy,\nand risk management. Answer the hard questions for yourself\nbefore the market does it for you. Like meditation or exercise,\nattention must be paid each day for maximum effectiveness."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-305-308-how-great-traders-go-bad-by-john-a-sarkett-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-305-308-how-great-traders-go-bad-by-john-a-sarkett-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-305-308-how-great-traders-go-bad-by-john-a-sarkett-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v130infrompi,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (309-313): Interview: From The Pit To The PC: Lewis J. Borsellino by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""From The Pit To The PC\nLewis J. Borsellino
The current, never-before-seen bull market in stocks has led to tremendous\ngrowth in trading the Standard & Poor’s 500 futures pits. One top S&P trader,\nLewis Borsellino, has been a runner, a clerk, a broker, an independent trader,\nand now, a fund manager. Recently, Borsellino wrote about his life and time\nin the pits in The Day Trader: From The Pit To The PC. STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Borsellino on April 21, 1999,\nasking him about, among other things, his strengths, his mistakes, the future\nof futures, and more.
Did your trading career\nbegin in the Standard &\nPoor’s pit?\nNo, my trading career\nbegan in the gold futures pit. At\none time, the Chicago Mercantile\nExchange’s gold pit was the largest and\ntraded the most volume of gold contracts.\nAt that time, gold was trading\nover $800 per ounce. One day, I was\nplaying racquetball with a trader and I\nasked him if I could open an account to\ntrade gold futures. He suggested I come\ndown to the exchange and see what it\nwas like. He didn’t want me to just open\nup an account, he said, because I didn’t\nknow what I was doing and I would just\nbe throwing my money away. The moment\nI walked out on the trading floor,\nthough, I thought it was the greatest\nthing I ever saw in my life."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-309-313-interview-from-the-pit-to-the-pc-lewis-j-borsellino-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-309-313-interview-from-the-pit-to-the-pc-lewis-j-borsellino-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-309-313-interview-from-the-pit-to-the-pc-lewis-j-borsellino-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v131mombystu,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (314-318): Momentum by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Momentum
Trend-following methods and indicators have drawbacks:\nOne, they indicate a change in trend after the fact, thereby\nmissing a significant portion of the initial move. Two, markets\nspend a lot of time not in trends, but in trading ranges —\nand using trend-following methods with prices in trading\nranges can result in whipsaw losses. To avoid these pitfalls,\nmomentum indicators are used to forewarn of a change in\ntrend and the reversal of price at support and resistance\nlevels within a trading range. Momentum is not a perfect\nmethod or indicator, but used appropriately, it can be extremely\nuseful. A thorough understanding of momentum can\nhelp in making trading decisions.
Momentum, according to techni-cian\nJohn J. Murphy, can be\ndefined as “a technique used to\nconstruct an overbought–over-sold\noscillator,” measuring\nprice differences over time. Fig-ure\n1 shows the 10-day mo-mentum\nline for the daily chart\nfor Intel."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-314-318-momentum-by-stuart-evens-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-314-318-momentum-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-314-318-momentum-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v131inretinf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (319-321): Inherent Return In Futures Markets by Charles R. Lightner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Inherent Return In\nFutures Markets
There has been a long-running controversy about the source\nof returns to futures market investors. With that in mind,\nconsider new data in support of the theory that there is an\ninherent return to the noncommercial investor group, one\nthat represents compensation for their acceptance of risk."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-319-321-inherent-return-in-futures-markets-by-charles-r-lightner-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-319-321-inherent-return-in-futures-markets-by-charles-r-lightner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-319-321-inherent-return-in-futures-markets-by-charles-r-lightner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v132idcrucsu,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (322-325): Identifying Crucial Support And Resistance Levels by Ned Gandevani"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Identifying Crucial Support\nAnd Resistance Levels
One tenet of technical analysis is the concept of support and\nresistance. In it, markets stop declining, thereby establishing\na support level. A resistance level is set when a rally completes\nits rise. Some support and resistance levels may be\nmore important than others. Here’s a way to determine the\nkey levels.
A look at market movement tells\nus that price fluctuates between\na level of support and a level of\nresistance. Recognizing key support\nand resistance levels can\nimprove our ability to enter, exit,\nand manage our trades. So how\ncan we determine which support\nand resistance levels are the\nmost important? Looking at an intraday S&P price chart, we\nfind a multitude of such levels — and the market pays respect\nto some, while it completely ignores others."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-322-325-identifying-crucial-support-and-resistance-levels-by-ned-gandevani-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-322-325-identifying-crucial-support-and-resistance-levels-by-ned-gandevani-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-322-325-identifying-crucial-support-and-resistance-levels-by-ned-gandevani-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v128sysfortr1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (326-331): Pseudo Securities For Technical Analysts, Part 2 by Charles E. Miller"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pseudo Securities For\nTechnical Analysts - Part 2
Last time, we examined the idea of using pseudo securities,\nbased on artificial data with known properties, to map the\ncharacteristics of various indicators. We then applied this\nconcept to the time domain of security analysis. In this, the\nsecond of a three-part series, we explore the actual technique\nused to generate pseudo security data.
When working with pseudo securities,\nas with anything else new\non the computer, it is generally\ncommon sense not to experiment\nwithin your working application.\nFor ProTA, BeeSoft’s\ntechnical analysis software for\nthe Macintosh, I suggest that\nyou set up a second, dedicated\ncopy of your technical analysis\napplication with your preferences\nand settings, but with initially empty ticker files.\nWorking in this resulting smaller file ensures that your\nexperiments won’t disturb your normal settings and preferences,\nnor your ability to do your daily work."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-326-331-pseudo-securities-for-technical-analysts-part-2-by-charles-e-miller-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-326-331-pseudo-securities-for-technical-analysts-part-2-by-charles-e-miller-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-326-331-pseudo-securities-for-technical-analysts-part-2-by-charles-e-miller-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v133webfortr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (33): Websites For Traders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""This month, we begin a new section\ncalled Websites For Traders, describing\nWebsites of possible interest to traders,\ntechnical analysts, and investors.\nSince this magazine’s focus is technical\nanalysis, we’ll begin by discussing some\nWebsites that offer charting.
ASK RESEARCH\nwww.askresearch.com\nAsk Research is a free service providing historical\nand real-time market data and charts. Select\ndaily or intraday charts, and select your preferred\nsettings for charts and indicator parameters.\nIndicators include on-balance volume\n(OBV), stochastics, Williams’ %R, relative\nstrength index, moving average convergence/\ndivergence (MACD), and price rate of change.\nPlot exponential moving averages (EMAs) and\nBollinger bands, on a linear or logarithmic price\nscale. The portfolio area with price quotes comes\nfrom Data Broadcasting. The News & Commentary\nbutton links to CBS MarketWatch."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-33-websites-for-traders-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-33-websites-for-traders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-33-websites-for-traders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v133tradnot,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7 (332-333): Traders’ Notes"",""caption-linebreaks"":""• ELECTRONIC DAYTRADING\nConsidering the increased interest in\ndaytrading and our interview with David\nNassar in the May 1999 STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES, we thought that some\nclarification of common terms used in\nelectronic direct access trading (EDAT)\nmight be helpful.
Archipelago: Also called Terra Nova,\nthis electronic communications network\n(ECN) has the symbol of TNTO on the\nLevel II screen.\nBloomberg: An ECN with the symbol\nBTRD for B-Trade on the Level II screen."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-332-333-traders-notes-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-332-333-traders-notes-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-332-333-traders-notes-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v177letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:7: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""WYCKOFF METHOD USEFUL\nEditor,\nI recently finished reading your wonderful\nbook, Charting The Stock Market:\nThe Wyckoff Method, and am send-ing\nthis letter to thank you for publishing\nit and for making it available at a\nvery reasonable cost. Economy isn’t\neverything, but in this arena, spending\nhundreds of dollars for books and products,\nreplete with appeals to human greed\nand promises of ease of gain, is not\nuncommon. I also appreciate the fact\nthat your book consistently states that\nthis method offers no magic formula or\nindicator, but rather presents itself as an\naid to navigation of the market.\nI’ve found that this study of market\nbehavior has helped me to evaluate the\nvalidity of various technical indicators,\nand how they might be used in conjunction\nwith one another to develop high-probability\ntrading setups. With further\ntesting, I might discover easier combinations\nof studies."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-7-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v133ibmcubby,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8 (335-342): IBM, Cubed by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""IBM, Cubed
Here’s a look at what’s involved in developing a\ntrend-following indicator for trading IBM.
In a previous article, I showed\nhow the application of a curve\ngeneratedbyathird-degreepoly-nomial\ncould be used to develop\na system to buy and sell British\npound (BP) futures. This time,\nwe will use a variation of that cubed system to create a system to trade IBM.\nIBM, one of the premier computer corporations in\nthe world, is a major factor in the movement of the\nDow Jones and Standard & Poor’s 500 indices.\nAlthough IBM is traded on all regional exchanges, the\nlion’s share and real market of IBM is traded on the\nNew York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
DATA DISCUSSION\nWe will use the daily prices of IBM from January 1,\n1993, to December 31, 1998. IBM pays dividends on\na quarterly basis, usually on the dividend payable\ndates of March 10, June 10, September 10, and\nDecember 10. On the exdividend date, the price of\nthe stock is adjusted down by the value of the dividend.\nThus, over the space of a year IBM has a small\ndownward bias in price by the amount of the yearly\ndividend.Ifyou wereaholderof IBM,thenyouwould\nreceive those dividends in cash, and the small downward\nbias over the year would be made up by the cash\ndividends you received. However, in developing a\nsystem using IBM prices,those pricesarenotadjusted\nfor the dividend payments. This nondividend adjustment\ncreates a small distortion in parameter selection\nand walk-forward results, which should be noted but\ndoes not significantly affect the system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-335-342-ibm-cubed-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-335-342-ibm-cubed-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-335-342-ibm-cubed-by-dennis-meyers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v134pseudsec,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8 (343-350): Pseudo Securities For Technical Analysts, Part 3 by Charles E. Miller"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pseudo Securities For\nTechnical Analysts\nPart 3
The first two parts of this three-part series examined the\ntheory, generation technique, and time series application of\nrectilinear pseudo securities. In this, the conclusion, the same\ntheory is applied to the frequency domain of the market using\nsinusoidal pseudo securities to produce a method for their\nconstruction. Whereas the time domain was used to investigate\nthe linear relationships between market data and time, the\nfrequency domain will enable us to identify and study cyclical,\nnonlinear relationships in security price movement.
Trendlines are used individually\nto represent the general trend\nof a market and used plurally in\nthe form of channels to define\nprice extremes. However, real\nmarket data seldom is a true\nlinear function of time. Just as\nnature abhors a vacuum, human\nnature seems to abhor instability,\nasymmetry and disorder.\nTherefore, even though\nprice fluctuations tend to resemble a study in Brownian\nmotion without easily discernible symmetry and order, price\nis commonly represented by linear regression, support and\nresistance lines, channels, and other straight-line constructs.\nThese are useful in suggesting future price action for limited\nperiods only, typically because most moves represented as\nstraight lines are actually components of longer, nonlinear\ncyclical moves."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-343-350-pseudo-securities-for-technical-analysts-part-3-by-charles-e-miller-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-343-350-pseudo-securities-for-technical-analysts-part-3-by-charles-e-miller-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-343-350-pseudo-securities-for-technical-analysts-part-3-by-charles-e-miller-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v135valatris,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8 (351-354): Value At Risk And Technical Analysis by Luis Ballesca-Loyo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Value At Risk And\nTechnical Analysis
This method uses market volatility and the concept of value\nat risk to help determine meaningful stop-loss prices and\nposition limits for trading securities.
Many traders and investors apply\nsecurity analysis techniques, either\ntechnical or fundamental, to\ntake positions using mechanical\nbuy and sell signals generated\nby their systems. In developing\ntheir systems, time is spent on\ndeveloping the entry signals and,\nto a lesser extent, the exit signals.\nBut as a rule, not as much\ntime is spent reviewing the expected adverse moves typical of\nthat system and market. Few traders fully consider the risk\nside of their trades beyond using stop orders to set limits on\nthe losing side of their trades."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-351-354-value-at-risk-and-technical-analysis-by-luis-ballesca-loyo-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-351-354-value-at-risk-and-technical-analysis-by-luis-ballesca-loyo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-351-354-value-at-risk-and-technical-analysis-by-luis-ballesca-loyo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v135whatmart,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8 (355-357): What Market Timing Is - And Isn't by Paul A. Merriman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What Market Timing Is —\nAnd Isn’t
Market timing is supposed to be great at reducing your risk\nwhile letting you profit in the bull moves, but is it all it’s\ncracked up to be? This market timer discusses the pros and\ncons.
Market timing — and market timers\n— are often treated in the\nmedia as barely a step above\nsnake-oil salesmen. It’s easy to\nbecome defensive in response.\nBut confession is good for the\nsoul. So here’s an insider’s look\nat what timing is — and isn’t.\nI could claim that market timing\nhas a big impact on long-term\nreturns. But it doesn’t; timing\nis much less important than\nasset allocation. In the long run,\na broadly diversified buy-and-hold equity portfolio has pretty\nhigh odds of achieving a 12% compound return. Timing may\nimprove that — but you can’t count on it. The biggest way\ntiming adds value is by offering a smoother ride, trying to\navoid or minimize interim losses that result from volatility."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-355-357-what-market-timing-is-and-isn-t-by-paul-a-merriman-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-355-357-what-market-timing-is-and-isn-t-by-paul-a-merriman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-355-357-what-market-timing-is-and-isn-t-by-paul-a-merriman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v135nigoftra,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8 (358-361): The Night/Daymares Of Traders by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Night/Daymares\nOf Traders
Your mind doesn’t shut down when you go to sleep. Sometimes,\nthe trading from the daytime can stay with you into the\ndreamtime. Here are ways to cope with trading nightmares.
If trading is a high-stakes game\nof skill, psychology, and chance\nplayed on a multidimensional\nboard, then none of the dimensions\ncan be ignored. Yet one\ninfluential dimension is consistently\noverlooked because it is\nassumed that it is under control\nor has little effect. The dimension in question? Our dream world. This world includes our\ndreams from sleep as well as our waking hours. Unwittingly,\nmany traders have been trading from a very powerful part of\ntheir dream world — their nightmares."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-358-361-the-night-daymares-of-traders-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-358-361-the-night-daymares-of-traders-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-358-361-the-night-daymares-of-traders-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v136inkevhag,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8 (362-366): Interview: Kevin Haggerty by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Guide To Conquering The Trading Markets - Kevin Haggerty
Kevin Haggerty’s career on Wall Street covers nearly 25 years and numerous\nresponsibilities ranging from senior vice president and manager of equity\ntrading at Fidelity Capital Markets to serving as a managing director of the\nChicago Board Options Exchange. Now he’s teamed up with Mark Boucher\nand Larry Connors, some other noted names in the business that STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES readers may recognize, to cofound a Website for traders called\nTRADEHARD.COM. S&C Editor Thom Hartle spoke to Haggerty on May 18,\n1999, about topics ranging from stockpicking, the opportunities available due\nto the way major players move in the markets, and his upcoming book, as well\nas his contribution to The TRADEHARD.COM’s Guide To Conquering The\nTrading Markets.
Let’s start with a little history.\nBefore entering the trading\nindustry, I received my\nbachelor’s degree from Manhattan College,\nand served in the US Marine Corps\nfrom 1965 to 1969. From 1976 to 1981,\nI was a vice president at Dean Witter\nReynolds and manager of the equity and\nconvertible trading desk. I became a general\npartner in charge of equity and convertible\ntrading at Walsh Greenwood,\nwhere I was from 1981 to 1990. While\nthere, I also directed the sales and marketing\nof the SHARK system, the first\npersonal computer–based equity and\noption trading quotation system. From\n1990 to 1997, I served as senior vice\npresident and manager of equity trading\nat Fidelity Capital Markets, a division of\nFidelity Investments, where I was in\ncharge of US institutional equity trading\nand exchange floor operations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-362-366-interview-kevin-haggerty-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-362-366-interview-kevin-haggerty-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-362-366-interview-kevin-haggerty-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v136momandre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8 (367-372): Momentum And Relative Strength Index by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Momentum And Relative\nStrength Index
Last month, we examined the theory of price momentum. This\ntime, we’ll look at two common and popular indicators based\non this theory, and how they can be used to enter and exit a\nmarket.
\""Momentum oscillator” is a generic\nterm used to refer to many different\nindicators, two of which\nare the relative strength index\n(RSI) and momentum indicators.\nSince J. Welles Wilder presented\nprice momentum and the RSI in\nhis classic New Concepts In\nTrading Systems, both indicators\nhave become popular technical\ntools, and a discussion of\neach can be found in most current\nworks on technical analysis.\nBoth indicators can be used to enter and exit the market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-367-372-momentum-and-relative-strength-index-by-stuart-evens-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-367-372-momentum-and-relative-strength-index-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-367-372-momentum-and-relative-strength-index-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v137sysopand,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8 (373-377): System Optimization And Money Management by L. Zamansky, Ph.D., and M. Stolz"",""caption-linebreaks"":""System Optimization And\nMoney Management
Most traders focus on optimizing the\ntrading system rules and\nignore money management rules until after\nthe system rules\nhave been established. Here’s why you should\ntest both sets\nof rules simultaneously.
Modern charting and analysis software\nfor traders is equipped with\nthe ability to optimize inputs for\na trading system. To optimize\ninputs, first, a system must be\nrun for each combination of input\nvalues within the set limits\nand with a given setup. The result\nis a table that has for each\nset of input values a corresponding set of\nperformance characteristics.\nSecond, one set of values with\nthe best performance\nis chosen. The best performance does\nnot mean the\nhighest net profit or minimum drawdown;\nit can be any\ncombination of acceptable performance characteristics."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-373-377-system-optimization-and-money-management-by-l-zamansky-ph-d-and-m-stolz-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-373-377-system-optimization-and-money-management-by-l-zamansky-ph-d-and-m-stolz-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-373-377-system-optimization-and-money-management-by-l-zamansky-ph-d-and-m-stolz-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1379webfort,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8 (379): Website For Traders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""YAHOO! FINANCE http://quote.yahoo.com
Yahoo!, a leading Website directory, also offers\na site-within-a-site at http://quote.yahoo.com for\nquotes, charts, and financial information. Here,\nyou can check delayed quotes, view basic charts,\nand access a range of news and fundamental\ndata. You can perform some basic fundamental\nanalysis on stocks and mutual funds. You can\nresearch equities by industries. You can even\naccess data on foreign markets. A well-rounded\nsite, it also provides information on consumer\nproducts such as mortgage loans and auto loans.\nInput a symbol and get a delayed, extended\nquote, a simple chart, and links to news. You can\nchoose to view the chart with a 200-day and 50-\nday moving average or plot prices against the\nS&P 500. The timeframes are far ranging: View\na chart with today’s intraday activity; view a line\nchart of five days’ intraday prices; view a bar\nchart from three months to five years; or view a\nchart with all available data. Display the chart in\nlarge or small format or even view the historical\ndata in a table. You can also view a table of\ndividends."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-379-website-for-traders-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-379-website-for-traders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-379-website-for-traders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1novtradnot,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8(378): NOVICE TRADER'S NOTEBOOK"",""caption-linebreaks"":""• COMPLEX TOP\nThe complex top is a broad classification\nof somewhat irregular patterns that\ndo not fit into any one of the other\npattern definitions. One complex top\npattern, the complex head-and-shoulders\ntop, is one of the more symmetrical\nformations that fall into this group. The\ncomplex variety of head-and-shoulders\ntops consists of different numbers and\ncombinations of shoulders and heads,\nrather than just one head and one each of\nleft and right shoulders, as in the standard\nvariety. The complex head-and-shoulders\ntop occurs less frequently than\nthe standard variety but has the same, if\nnot better, reliability in warning of an\nimpending downturn."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-378-novice-trader-s-notebook-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-378-novice-trader-s-notebook-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-378-novice-trader-s-notebook-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v178letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:8: LETTERS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRACKING COMMODITY PORTFOLIO
Editor,\nIs there a Website I can use to track my\nportfolio of commodities and options?\nCurrently, I use Yahoo!, but it only\ncovers the Chicago Board of Trade and\ndoesn’t provide quotes from NYMEX\nand other exchanges. Perhaps this topic\ncould be the subject of a short article.\nTIM DENKER, via E-mail
Thanks for writing. Last month, we\nlaunched a new section called “Websites\nfor Traders,” where we describe\nWebsites with features that traders\nwould find of interest. We’ll keep an eye\nout for a Website that offers commodity\nand options portfolio tracking. In the\nmeantime, perhaps another reader can\nsuggest such a Website.—Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-8-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v138exposwit,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9 (381-391): Exploiting Positions With Money Management by Daryl Guppy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Exploiting Positions\nWith Money Management
Here’s a trading technique for stops, including money\nmanagement guidelines.\nven in a bull market, there is a\nfeeling of triumph when a trade\ngoes our way. When this happens,\nthe novice trader feels\nthat getting the trade right is\nenough in itself and that profits\nwill automatically follow. He\nis invariably disappointed\nwhen profits turn out to be smaller than expected, and\noften, he will redirect his attention to derivative\nmarkets to try to leverage winning trades into larger\nprofits. This in turn exposes him to a higher level of\nrisk than he anticipates. A better solution would be to\napply money management techniques to equity markets\nto grow profits more effectively. This is also an\nimportant way of reducing risk."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-381-391-exploiting-positions-with-money-management-by-daryl-guppy-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-381-391-exploiting-positions-with-money-management-by-daryl-guppy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-381-391-exploiting-positions-with-money-management-by-daryl-guppy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v139stocbyst,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9 (392-398): Stochastics by Stuart Evens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stochastics
As originally introduced by George Lane, the classic stochastic\noscillator is not a normalized relative strength indicator,\nlike most other momentum oscillators. However, it\ndoes use closing price in its calculation, but in a way slightly\ndifferent from other oscillators. Here’s a refresher for the\nveteran traders and an introduction for the novices.
The stochastics oscillator was\noriginally introduced by George\nC. Lane in STOCKS & COMMODITIES\nin 1984. Since then,\nit has become a popular indicator,\nincluded in most technical\nanalysis software programs.\nThat, combined with the wide-spread\nuse of the personal computer,\nhas made stochastics an\neasy indicator to use.\nTo gain a more complete understanding of the oscillator,\nlet’s look at the idea behind stochastics, then at how it is\ncalculated and interpreted. (To examine historical results\nfrom backtesting the indicator on a number of securities, see\nsidebar, “Historical testing in stochastics.”)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-392-398-stochastics-by-stuart-evens-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-392-398-stochastics-by-stuart-evens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-392-398-stochastics-by-stuart-evens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v139multecfo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9 (399-404): Multiple-Indicator Techniques For Index Funds by Andrew Abraham"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Multiple-Indicator Techniques\nFor Index Funds
Traders expect uncertainty in the markets; it comes with the\nterritory of trading. But with the Standard & Poor’s 500 hitting\nnew highs after a gut-wrenching decline, is there more uncertainty\ntoday? Here’s a set of multiple-indicator procedures for\ntrading an index fund, complete with historical examples.
We have all heard market experts\nadvise us to be long-term\ninvestors. However, if you began\ninvesting in 1973 or 1929,\ncould you have held on long\nenough to earn a profit? It took\napproximately 25 years to\nreach levels seen prior to 1929\nand approximately 12 to reach\nlevels seen prior to 1973. Japanese\ninvestors have been waiting\nfor a return to the highs of 39,000 seen in the Nikkei only\na few years ago. While everyone should participate in equities,\nprudence is always warranted, because anything can\nhappen. As easily as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)\ncould go up to 25,000, it could also go down to 5,000."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-399-404-multiple-indicator-techniques-for-index-funds-by-andrew-abraham-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-399-404-multiple-indicator-techniques-for-index-funds-by-andrew-abraham-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-399-404-multiple-indicator-techniques-for-index-funds-by-andrew-abraham-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v140comtecan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9 (405-409): Combining Technical And Fundamental Analysis by Mark C. Snead, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Combining Technical And\nFundamental Analyses
The two forms of analysis approach market forecasting in\nradically different styles. Can they be combined?
Few topics generate as much\nheated discussion as the time-honored\ndebate of technical vs.\nfundamental analysis. The two\nschools do, in fact, offer radically\ndifferent approaches to\nmarket forecasting; fundamental\nanalysis is concerned with\nidentifying the relevant variables\nunderlying price action,\nwhile technical analysis attempts\nto extract tradable information from price action itself.\nWhat is most interesting about this is the tendency for\nforecasters to rely solely on either fundamental or technical\nanalysis. Many are merely following the conventional wisdom\nthat each technique is logically more compatible with a\ngiven trading horizon. Because long-run movements in a\nmarket are ultimately steered by the underlying fundamentals,\nfundamental analysis is considered more suitable for\nlong-term investors. Conversely, since short-term market\nmovements are dominated by volatile price adjustments,\ntechnical analysis is the method of choice for most short-term\ntraders."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-405-409-combining-technical-and-fundamental-analysis-by-mark-c-snead-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-405-409-combining-technical-and-fundamental-analysis-by-mark-c-snead-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-405-409-combining-technical-and-fundamental-analysis-by-mark-c-snead-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v141inmoeano,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9 (410-416): Interview: Moe Ansari Of Compak Trading by Bruce Faber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Following The Road Map Of The Market - Moe Ansari Of\nCompak Trading
Discipline and determination are key to succeeding as a trader, or anything\nelse, for that matter. Moe Ansari of Compak Trading started off his college\nyears as an architecture major before he discovered his true calling in the\nfinancial markets, only to be told he couldn’t make it as a broker. He not only\nproved that prediction wrong, he proved it very wrong. Despite being told that\nhis accent was too thick for him to be understood clearly, he went on to become\na radio personality with a nationally syndicated weekend program covering\nthe markets as well as doing daily market wrapups. Along the way, Ansari also\nstarted to conduct workshops around the country, teaching technical analysis\nand, as he observes, giving the participants “the proper tools” and guiding\nthem toward their own system and methodology, with an emphasis on keeping\ntheir money with proper money management techniques. STOCKS & COM-MODITIES\nStaff Writer Bruce Faber interviewed Ansari via telephone on June 22\nand June 28, 1999, asking him about exit strategies, what we need to succeed in\ntoday’s markets and why in his opinion investors will drift toward commodities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-410-416-interview-moe-ansari-of-compak-trading-by-bruce-faber-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-410-416-interview-moe-ansari-of-compak-trading-by-bruce-faber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-410-416-interview-moe-ansari-of-compak-trading-by-bruce-faber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v141ancurbyr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9 (417-419): Anxiety Cure by Ruth Barrons Roosevelt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Anxiety Cure
Here are some tips on not letting those feelings of anxiety\naffect your trading.
\""Hope is not a strategy; it’s a\nsimple emotion,” a retired army\ngeneral remarked. He was talking\nabout a war, but his comment\nreminded me of trading. I\nremembered trading situations\nwhen hope was the only strategy\nI had.\nThat could be said about almost\nany emotion and trading.\nGreed is not a strategy; it’s a\nsimple emotion. Fear is not a strategy; it’s a simple emotion.\nSometimes, unfortunately, fear, or greed, or hope, or determination\ndoes become a trader’s basic strategy. Trading becomes\ndictated by emotion rather than a consistent strategy for\nentering and exiting the market. The general was right; simple\nemotions are not an effective strategy. A strategy built on\nemotions will be inconsistent at best and disastrous at worst."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-417-419-anxiety-cure-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-417-419-anxiety-cure-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-417-419-anxiety-cure-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v142deadcatb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9 (420-422): The Dead Cat Bounce by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Dead\nCat Bounce
If you trade stocks long enough, you might have an event take\nyour stock down 25% to 70% in a single session. Then the\nsituation gets grim. Here’s a review of the dead cat bounce\nchart pattern and a strategy to minimize any additional\nlosses.
Warren was a novice investor\nwho’d never suffered some of\nthe ups and downs of a volatile\nmarket. He called me shortly\nafter the market closed one day,\nand he was so excited, it took\nme a moment to recognize his\nvoice: “Oxford just went from\n69 to 26. That’s a decline of\n62%! I’m thinking of buying\nbecause after such a large drop\nit’s just got to bounce.”
He wanted to buy into the situation that can be seen in\nFigure 1. My reply? “If you don’t get out within a week,\nyou’ll lose money,” I told him."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-420-422-the-dead-cat-bounce-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-420-422-the-dead-cat-bounce-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-420-422-the-dead-cat-bounce-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1423webfort,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9 (423): Websites For Traders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""IQC.COM - www.iqc.com
IQC.com is a data source for the technically\noriented investor. IQC Corp. offers free stock\ncharts, quotes, stock scans, and market information.\nThe Website is straightforwardly laid out\nand easy to navigate.\nThe homepage gives you today’s index data\nand a five-minute chart of the DJIA, with news\nheadlines below. View a market summary with\ncharts of indices, or enter a symbol to display a\nquote or chart. In keeping with IQC’s technical\nfocus, two types of free quotations are available:\nDetailed quotes include a complement of technical\nindicators, while basic charts are quick."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-423-websites-for-traders-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-423-websites-for-traders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-423-websites-for-traders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9(424-425): TRADER'S TIPS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""•TRADESTATION/SUPERCHARTS
This month in Traders’ Tips we take a look at stochastics as\ndefined in this issue’s article “Stochastics” by Stuart Evens. The\ncalculation of the %K line, as defined in the article, is identical\nto the way in which it is calculated in EasyLanguage. The %D\nline, though, differs slightly. With this in mind, I have presented\nthe calculation for the %K and %D, using both the regular and\nslow calculations. In addition, I have included two EasyLanguage\nindicators, one that plots the regular version of the pair and one\nthat plots the slow version of the pair."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-424-425-trader-s-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-424-425-trader-s-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-424-425-trader-s-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v179letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chapter9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.17:9: LETTERS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CHARTS & GRAPHICS
Editor,\nI read and enjoy your magazine each\nmonth with great enthusiasm. I have\nlearned a lot from it and will continue to\ndo so. There is nothing else that compares.\nMy complaint is that the size of the\ncharts is way too small. This is technical\ninformation with a lot of detail. Can you\nmake the charts and text larger? I’ll bet\nyou’ll get many compliments.\nJOE GNANDT, via E-mail
Our intent is certainly to make Technical\nAnalysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nThe Traders’ Magazine, as easy to\nread as possible. At the same time we\nwant to make sure that each magazine\nissue has a variety of articles that cover\ndifferent trading techniques. The\ntradeoff has always been the number of\ngood trading articles per issue versus\narticle length and chart size.\nIn upcoming issues, we will publish\nsome concise articles about the use of\nindividual chart formatiozs and computerized\ntrading methods. These articles\nwill focus on describing how to\nrecognize, calculate, and apply an indicator\nto trading the markets. We will\ncontinue to use many different vendors’\ncomputer software to produce chart\nexamples in our articles. At the same time, we will experiment with using\nlarger charts and more printed page\narea. You can look for these changes,\nand thanks for your feedback. —Publisher"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-17-9-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12033marpro,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap1jan20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (20-33): Market Profile Exotics by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Profile Exotics\nThe Liquidity Data Bank
In this followup to last month ’s article on Market\nProfile,we go beyond Market Profile to determine\nprice movements.Here ’s a look at the Liquidity Data\nBank,which helps traders detect price movements\nearly.
When prices move in one direction,\nit means that prices are being\nmet with acceptance.It is\nimportant to realize that trends\ndo not continue indefinitely and\nthere will be points where price\nlevels will be met with opposition,which will indicate either the start of a trend\nreversal or that the market is likely to go through a\ntrading range.Reversals,whether they are of a\nmajor trend or between support and resistance\nlevels,are key signals for making buy/sell or short/\ncover decisions.
The key to detecting the reversal points is through\nanalyzing the volume traded.Apart from providing\nthe Market Profile,the Chicago Board of Trade\n(CBOT)also provides the Liquidity Data Bank (LDB),\nwhich indicates the volume traded at each price\nlevel.Not only does it provide the total volume\ntraded at each level,but also divides up the volume\nby types of traders."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-20-33-market-profile-exotics-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-20-33-market-profile-exotics-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-20-33-market-profile-exotics-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13439arthre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap1jan20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (34-39): Are Three-Bar Patterns Reliable For Stocks? by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are Three-Bar Patterns\nReliable For Stocks?
by Thomas Bulkowski
Futures traders often use a three-bar swing low as a reversal\npattern,but is the three-bar pattern reliable for stocks?Find\nout here.
I discovered this gem of a pattern while prospecting for ideas\nin a recent issue of STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES.In the interview\nwith Kevin Haggerty was the\nfollowing pattern description:\nOne example [to determine a change in direction ]is a three-bar pattern,which is the same one\nthat futures traders use.The stock establishes a\nlow price as a swing point.Once the stock closes\nabove the high of the low day,to me,that is a\nchange of direction for an undetermined period.\nUsing this description as a guide,I decided to formalize the\nshape and behavior of the pattern.
IDENTIFICATION RULES\nWhat does the pattern look like? Here is my interpretation.\nThe pattern conforms to the following rules:\nIt uses daily prices,not intraday or weekly prices.\nThe middle day of the three-day pattern has the lowest\nlow of the three days,with no ties allowed.\nThe last day must have a close above the prior day's high,with no ties allowed.\nEach day must have a nonzero trading range.
I limited my selection and\ntesting to daily prices,not\nweekly or monthly prices.I\ndidn ’t use intraday pricing because the pattern description\nmentions closing prices.Although the paragraph describing the pattern says that a\nswing change occurs once\nprices close above the prior\nhigh,I interpreted that to mean the very next day,not several\ndays in the future.It is,after all,a three-bar pattern,not a\nfive-or six-bar pattern.\nHere ’s a sample three-bar pattern."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-34-39-are-three-bar-patterns-reliable-for-stocks-by-thomas-bulkowski-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-34-39-are-three-bar-patterns-reliable-for-stocks-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-34-39-are-three-bar-patterns-reliable-for-stocks-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14044inretw,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap1jan20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (40-44): Increasing Return With Covered Calls by Joe Demkovich and Eugene Theriot"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Increasing Return With\nCovered Calls
by Joe Demkovich and Eugene Theriot
Worried about how exposed you are to price fluctuation in\nyour options position? Don’t be. Here’s how you can\nretain flexibility by using covered-call options.
One of the most conservative\ninvesting actions you can\ntake is to sell covered-call options.Covered refers to\nyour owning the stock underlying the calls you sell.\nThus, if someone actually\ndoes \""call\"" you, or take you\nup on your offer to sell the\noption,you can just sell them\nthe stock. Of course, you do\nget paid for this, sometimes\nquite handsomely.
There are three principal reasons to sell calls on stocks\nyou already own:
1 You think the stock may not go up much in the near term\nand you want to increase your income.
2 You want to sell the stock at a price above the current\nvalue.
3 You want some downside protection against a drop in\nthe stock price.
In return, you must be willing to give up some of the potential\nupside movement in the stock."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-40-44-increasing-return-with-covered-calls-by-joe-demkovich-and-eugene-theriot-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-40-44-increasing-return-with-covered-calls-by-joe-demkovich-and-eugene-theriot-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-40-44-increasing-return-with-covered-calls-by-joe-demkovich-and-eugene-theriot-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1459596prod,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (45,95-96):Product Review:RadarScreen"",""caption-linebreaks"":""In October 1999,we reviewed TradeStation 2000i\nservice pack 2, one of the ProSuite 2000 i trio. This\nmonth, we’ll continue with a look at RadarScreen 2000i, and finish next time with a look at OptionStation 2000i. Again, we used a Hewlett-Packard Vectra VL 400 MHZ Pentium\nII machine with 128 MB RAM and a 9.4 GB hard drive to run the software. For data, we used eSignal via the Internet,\naccessed through a T-1 line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-45-95-96-product-review-radarscreen-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-45-95-96-product-review-radarscreen-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-45-95-96-product-review-radarscreen-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14653artwoc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap1jan20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (46-53): Are Two Channels Better Than One? by Stephane Reverre"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are Two Channels\nBetter Than One?
by Stéphane Reverre
This author tested two channels based on Bollinger Bands\naround a standard moving average and an application of the\ncapital asset pricing model, and discovered that a combination of the two performs better than the two separately.
Traditional wisdom states that\n\""The trend is your friend,\"" and\nexperienced traders know that\nit is far wiser to embark, even\nlate, on an established trend\nthan to play a correction against\nit. Many indicators have been\ndesigned to specifically predict a fledgling trend or an imminent correction, and out of\nthese, channels have had some\nsuccess. The channel family of indicators tries to glean\npertinent information from the market by setting specified\nboundaries around the current movements of a stock, and it is\nunlikely that the stock will move out of those boundaries\nunless an unforeseen event occurs.
I tested two channels based on Bollinger Bands around a\ntechnical indicator: a standard moving average and an application of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). I discovered\nthat a combination of the two performs qualitatively better\nthan the two separately."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-46-53-are-two-channels-better-than-one-by-stephane-reverre-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-46-53-are-two-channels-better-than-one-by-stephane-reverre-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-46-53-are-two-channels-better-than-one-by-stephane-reverre-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15660morres,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap1jan20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (56-60): More Responsive Moving Averages by Joe Sharp,Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""More Responsive\nMoving Averages
by Joe Sharp,Ph.D.
Traders are resigned to moving averages being behind the\nprice action,but that needn’t always be the case. Here’s an\nalgebraic technique to make your averages more responsive\nto price movement - and a better aid in decision--making.
Moving averages serve two main\npurposes: to show the underlying\nsecurity value after noise has\nbeen filtered out and, implicitly,\nto delay decisions to reduce\nwhipsaws. However, that delay\nfrustrates traders who must make\ndecisions based on what is\nhappening right then and there.
You can fix that. I’ll show you a corrected moving average\nthat can follow trends accurately. You’ll have to endure a\nlittle math to get the idea,or you can use the spreadsheet I’ve\nprovided in Sidebar 1.
THE OLD WAY
First,I want to show you a simple example of a problem that’s\neasy to calculate by hand. It can be seen in the spreadsheet in\nFigure 1, and I’m using it here just to introduce the problem\nand suggest how to fix it.
Start the column marked \""Day\"" at day zero and run it\ndownward to 19. Then,starting at day 1, give the security\nvalue column values from one up to 10 and back down to one.
Compute a simple two-day moving average by hand. The\nfirst value, for example, in column C is (1+0)/2 =0.5. On day\n2, it’s (2+1)/2 =1.5, and so on.
The Error column is the difference between the security’s\nprice and the average. For the first line, that’s 1 -0.5 =0.5. The\ncolumn shows that the average will never be able to catch up\nwith the rising and falling ramp; it will always lag behind the\ncorrect value of the underlying security by half the change in\nthe period included in the average. Similarly, simple moving\naverages lag behind falling security values."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-56-60-more-responsive-moving-averages-by-joe-sharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-56-60-more-responsive-moving-averages-by-joe-sharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-56-60-more-responsive-moving-averages-by-joe-sharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16265itswha,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap1jan20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (62-65): It ’s What You Keep That Counts by Ted Tesser, CPA"",""caption-linebreaks"":""It’s What\nYou Keep\nThat Counts
by Ted Tesser,CPA
Trader status, which has always been one of the hottest but\nleast understood topics whenever taxes are discussed, has\nalways left market participants confused. Here’s a certified\npublic accountant who also trades to explain it all to you.
Trader status has always been\none of the most hotly discussed\ntopics whenever taxes are discussed amid those in the industry. Until recently, the Internal\nRevenue Service (IRS) code left\nus in the dark,and all we had to\ngo on were the divergent opinions of certified public accountants (CPAs), tax lawyers, and\nother tax professionals. With\nthe passage of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 and subsequent Congressional interpretations of the law, trader status\nhas finally been addressed, and in fact, taken on greater\nsignificance because of certain benefits extended to traders."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-62-65-it-s-what-you-keep-that-counts-by-ted-tesser-cpa-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-62-65-it-s-what-you-keep-that-counts-by-ted-tesser-cpa-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-62-65-it-s-what-you-keep-that-counts-by-ted-tesser-cpa-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16879inmelb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap1jan20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (68-79): Interview: Leo Melamed by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On The Alliance Of Exchanges\nLeo Melamed
As chief architect of financial futures, Melamed led the US futures industry from\n1967 until his retirement from the CME in 1991. During this period, financial\nfutures experienced unparalleled growth and became an established and indispensable tool in financial risk management. Further,in 1987, Melamed introduced\nGlobex, the first electronic futures after-hours trading system, developed in\nconjunction with Reuters Holdings PLC. Melamed served as the first chairman of\nthe system until 1993.
Melamed, an attorney by profession, is an active futures trader. Interim STOCKS\n& COMMODITIES Editor John Sweeney interviewed Melamed via telephone on\nOctober 11,1999.
Even though he is currently chairman and chief executive officer of the global\nfutures organization Sakura Dellsher, Leo Melamed is best known as the\nchairman emeritus of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)and widely\nrecognized as the founder of the concept of financial futures. As chairman of\nthe CME, Melamed introduced foreign currency futures in 1972 with the\nlaunch of the International Monetary Market (IMM)—the first futures market\nfor financial instruments. Under 25 years of his leadership, the CME was\ntransformed from a secondary domestic agricultural exchange to the world’s\nforemost financial futures exchange. In January 1997, in his position as\nchairman emeritus, Melamed was appointed a permanent advisor to the board\nand executive committee of the CME."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-68-79-interview-leo-melamed-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-68-79-interview-leo-melamed-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-68-79-interview-leo-melamed-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v181816letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap1jan20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (8-16): Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CANDLESTICK CODE IN EASYLANGUAGE
Editor,\nAfter the November\n1999 issue of STOCKS\n&COMMODITIES came\nout with my article,\n\""Coding Candlesticks,\""\nand the accompanying\nsidebar, \""Candle code construction with\nMetaStock,\"" many traders asked about\nthe TradeStation/SuperCharts variant of\nthe candlestick code. Well, trader\nValeriy Lazarenko has developed the\nEasyLanguage code for indicators discussed in my article.
VIKTOR LIKHOVIDOV
See Traders’ Tips in this issue for this\nEasyLanguage code. It will also be\nposted at our own Website at http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/TradersTips/TradersTips.html. Thanks for sharing\nthis code with readers. —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-8-16-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-8-16-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-8-16-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v180tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap1jan20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (80-82,94): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed\nby various developers of technical analysis software to help\nreaders more easily implement some of the strategies presented. Internet users will also find these and some previous\nTraders’ Tips on our Website at http:://www.Traders .com.
TRADESTATION/SUPERCHARTS\nIn the November 1999 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, my article\n\""Coding Candlesticks\"" presented a quantitative approach to\ninterpreting candlesticks with code provided in MetaStock\nformat. After the issue came out, many STOCKS & COMMODITIES readers asked about a version of the code in EasyLanguage\nfor TradeStation and SuperCharts, so Vladivostok trader\nValeriy Lazarenko developed the EasyLanguage code for the\nindicators discussed in the article. Here it is.\nCoding CandleSticks (For TradeStation 4.0)
Author: Likhovidov Victor
Programmer: Lazarenko Valeriy (droping@mail.ru)
Functions:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-80-82-94-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-80-82-94-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-80-82-94-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18387prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (83-87):Product Review:Neuroshell Trader Professional"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Ward Systems Group (WSG) first started offering neural network software in 1988. WSG not only provides\nartificial intelligence (AI) software for the financial community, but also provides AI products to the corporate, medical, and educational markets. Ward’s two products for\ngeneral and business applications are NeuroShell Predictor and Classifier, and its two products for the financial markets are NeuroShell Trader and NeuroShell\nTrader Professional."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-83-87-product-review-neuroshell-trader-professional-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-83-87-product-review-neuroshell-trader-professional-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-83-87-product-review-neuroshell-trader-professional-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18892prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (88-92):Product Review:Trader's Powerkit"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The volatility breakout system is a powerful trading\nmethod that can provide you with great trading\nopportunities.Trader’s Powerkit, which was developed by\nsometime STOCKS &COMMODITIES contributor Steve Notis, is a program that focuses on this specific trading\nmethodology and brings you a system that can be utilized effectively.
Trader’s Powerkit comes on a single\nCD-ROM along with a developer’s manual that contains general information about the breakout system. Most\nof the operational instructions are found\nin the program’s context-sensitive help\nfile. Powerkit also contains the code for\nthe trading logic behind the product. To\nshorten the learning curve and supplement the instruction manual, new users get a personal walkthrough service. Having utilized this service, I can say\nthat it is an efficient way to become\nfamiliar with the system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-88-92-product-review-trader-s-powerkit-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-88-92-product-review-trader-s-powerkit-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-88-92-product-review-trader-s-powerkit-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v197103104pr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:1 (97,103-104):Product Review:CycleTrader V.5.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Indicators, indicators, indicators! So many\nindicators, so little time.\nEven though there are\nseveral programs that give\nyou the opportunity to create your\nown indicators, DH Financial reduces\nthe learning curve with CycleTrader. This is an add-on for Omega Research products, such as TradeStation, SuperCharts, ProSuite 2000, and\nTradeStation 2000. It adds a list of\nindicators related to cycle analysis. The\ninterface is similar to Omega Research\nproducts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-97-103-104-product-review-cycletrader-v-5-0-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-97-103-104-product-review-cycletrader-v-5-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-1-97-103-104-product-review-cycletrader-v-5-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v111tradresc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (112-113): Traders’ Resource: Consultants"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.18:10 (112-113): Traders’ Resource: Consultants
Consultants consult on just about every conceivable worry traders have. A quick perusal of our listing this issue shows that they have been called in to consult\non everything from tax advice to weather reporting. Can all this help you? Maybe. The rules for checking out consultants are simple: check references, check\nreferences, and (did you guess?) check references. Nothing can be more vague than a consultant’s initial proposal, but nothing is clearer than a client’s opinion on the success of a consultant’s engagement. Consultants without satisfied clients are likely to be doubly expensive: wasted money and wasted time. That said and with that in mind, you must do your homework before calling one in to help you. Be sure you can say in one sentence what you want the consultant to achieve. In addition, be sure you know of and can contact people who truly specialize in your area of concern, not simply someone who will take on any problem that someone dreams up. Again, references from others (and satisfied customers) are great leads."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-112-113-traders-resource-consultants-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-112-113-traders-resource-consultants-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-112-113-traders-resource-consultants-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv116e,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (16-20): Enhanced Fund Switching by Jack Singer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Enhanced Fund Switching by Jack Singer
Jay Kaeppel published a highly successful fund switching strategy in July 1999. Here ’s how to make it even juicier.
In March 1999, I lost a client to a stockbroker because I\nwas too conservative in my investing style, using the accepted strategy of buy/hold on a diversified portfolio of funds. Asset allocation and diversification, for those who don’t know, is where money is spread over a variety of assets, some of which will outperform and others of which will underperform. All are at various stages of cyclical performance, the underlying strategy being that over the long run, they will balance each other, and the average trend of the portfolio will be growth.
However, on March 27, 1999, an article appeared in The Economist questioning the asset allocation theory. Jim McNulty and Max Ziff, two bankers at Warburg Dillon Read, had found that their clients believed that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the textbook standard, was no longer effective. They then asked the question, “Has theory lost touch with common sense?”"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-16-20-enhanced-fund-switching-by-jack-singer-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-16-20-enhanced-fund-switching-by-jack-singer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-16-20-enhanced-fund-switching-by-jack-singer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12230icchar,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (22-30): Ichimoku Charts by Ken Muranaka"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Mountain Man Is Back,\nThis Time In Computerized\nTrading Rooms
Ichimoku Charts by Ken Muranaka
A Japanese charting technique\ndeveloped early in the 20th century is enjoying renewed popularity.
Invented before World War\nII by a Tokyo newspaper\nwriter who called himself\n\""Ichimoku Sanjin\"" (a pen\nname meaning \""a glance of\na mountain man\""), ichimoku charts\nare becoming a popular tool for\nJapanese traders once more, not\nonly in equities but also in currencies, bonds, indices, commodities,\nand options. Literally, ichimoku\nmeans \""one look\""; a chart of this\nstyle is referred to as ichimoku\nkinkou-hyou — the table of equilibrium prices at a glance.
Ichimoku's guidebook on the\ncharts finally appeared in 1968,\nlong after the newspaper writer,\nwhose real name was Goichi\nHosoda, developed the technique.\nAll the computations involved no\nmore than taking midpoints of\nhistorical highs and lows in various ways. Nevertheless, the completed chart presents a panoramic view of price movement. For years, Hosoda hired students to\ndo numerous calculations (or simulations) to come up with the\noptimum formulas, long before personal computers or even\npocket calculators were the norm. He died in 1983, but the spirit\nof his work is in computerized trading rooms in the form of\nichimoku charts. Although he also developed some wave\ntheories, I’ll only cover the chart style here."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-22-30-ichimoku-charts-by-ken-muranaka-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-22-30-ichimoku-charts-by-ken-muranaka-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-22-30-ichimoku-charts-by-ken-muranaka-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv132p,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (32-38): Price Patterns, Part II by Martin J.Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price Patterns, Part II by Martin J.Pring
This veteran market analyst takes a look at the patterns of price formation.
Last time, I covered the basics of chart patterns using rectangles as an example. This time, I will expand on the subject by taking a look at several different patterns.\nTo recap some of the major points:
1. Price patterns are clearly definable trading ranges that form on a chart. There are two types —reversal and\nconsolidation.
2. The significance of a pattern is relative to its size; the\nlonger it takes to complete, the more significant the formation is.
3. The minimum ultimate measuring objective for a price pattern is obtained by calculating its maximum depth at the breakout point and projecting it in the direction of the breakout."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-32-38-price-patterns-part-ii-by-martin-j-pring-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-32-38-price-patterns-part-ii-by-martin-j-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-32-38-price-patterns-part-ii-by-martin-j-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv140s,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (40-45): Strength Figure by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Strength Figure by Alex Saitta
Here’s an indicator that captures the amount and the distance of price thrusts.
Technicians measure the strength of a market trend by examining trading volume, open interest, or price momentum. Most who choose momentum graph the price above and a momentum line below. Figure 1 plots the Standard & Poor’s 500 futures, and the difference between the most recent close and the close 15 days prior —the 15-day momentum line. In this case, the momentum was positive, so the price trend was up,but as the market rose, momentum fell. The divergence between the direction of the price (rising) and the momentum (falling) indicated the uptrend was losing strength and the trend was approaching its end."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-40-45-strength-figure-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-40-45-strength-figure-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-40-45-strength-figure-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv146q,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (46): Q&A by Don Bright"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Q&A by Don Bright
Don Bright answers questions on trading journals, and deep-discount brokers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-46-q-a-by-don-bright-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-46-q-a-by-don-bright-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-46-q-a-by-don-bright-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv148r,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (48-50): The Rucker Park Of Capitalism by Jonathan Hoenig"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Rucker Park Of Capitalism by Jonathan Hoenig
A venerable part of the traders’ world is threatened, but its tricks and techniques will live on.
The best players in the National Basketball Association (NBA) have all played in Manhattan’s Rucker Park, the cultural Mecca for “streetball,” as basketball is referred to there at 155th Street and 8th Avenue. It is this hallowed ground in Harlem, not the sacred turf of financial markets —Wall Street —that comes closest to describing what floor trading in Chicago has been about for more than 150 years.
Three major futures and options trading floors can be\nfound in Chicago at present, but the real trading courts are the old, time-worn North and South trading rooms at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), located at the picturesque end of the LaSalle Street financial canyon. You can trace almost the entire history of modern agricultural and financial markets to these two rooms, proving that the Chicago pits are truly the equivalent of Rucker Park in terms of capitalism."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-48-50-the-rucker-park-of-capitalism-by-jonathan-hoenig-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-48-50-the-rucker-park-of-capitalism-by-jonathan-hoenig-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-48-50-the-rucker-park-of-capitalism-by-jonathan-hoenig-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15256prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (52-56):Product Review:TradeCast Elite And Revolution"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TradeCast Elite And Revolution
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
TRADECAST SECURITIES, LTD.\n5555 San Felipe\nSuite 575\nHouston, TX 77056\nPhone: 877 303-7844\nFax: 713 627-1039\nE-mail: onlineinfo@tradecast.com\nInternet: http://www.tradecast.com\nProduct: Online direct access broker\ntargeting the active trader.\nEquipment requirements: Windows\n95/98/NT, Pentium 200 MMX or better,\n64 MB RAM or more, 8MB video card\nor better, at least 350 MB hard drive\nspace, Internet service provider with\nISDN connection recommended.\nPrice: See Figure 3. In addition, there\nare varying bimonthly special promotions. Call for details.
Faster trading where you can\nroute your trades directly\nto the exchange floor, bypassing the middleman, and\ntrading during extended\nmarket hours, all with a few mouse-clicks have made direct-access brokers\na big hit among active traders. Initially,\nwhen the direct-access brokers entered\nthe online brokerage industry, they were\nmet with skepticism and wariness. However, the explosive growth of their market drastically changed all that and now, traditional brokerages are downright\nanxious to join forces with direct-access brokers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-52-56-product-review-tradecast-elite-and-revolution-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-52-56-product-review-tradecast-elite-and-revolution-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-52-56-product-review-tradecast-elite-and-revolution-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v158norbybri,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (58-68): Normalization by Brian R.Bell"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Normalization by Brian R.Bell
Sometimes it can be hard to understand all those twitchy indicators on your trading screen. Here’s\nhow most of them generate useful signals with normalization,which is the process of removing the\ndependency of something on something else and making it stand alone.
Purely theoretically, suppose you’re using the relative strength indicator (RSI): Sell when the RSI crosses below 75, and buy when the RSI crosses above 25. Also purely theoretically, suppose you also use signals based on a simple moving average oscillator: Sell when the oscillator crosses below a value of 50, and buy when the oscillator crosses above a value of -50.
Figure 1 shows both of these indicators applied to a daily chart of lean hog futures,the moving average oscillator in the middle graph (N1 =4 periods, N2 =8\nperiods) and the RSI (N =5 periods) in the lowest\ngraph. The blue arrows on each indicator show where the buy signals occurred and the red arrows show where the sell signals occurred. The point? Both\nindicators give useful signals."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-58-68-normalization-by-brian-r-bell-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-58-68-normalization-by-brian-r-bell-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-58-68-normalization-by-brian-r-bell-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17072quicsc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (70-72):Quick Scan:Cash In On Chaos"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Micromedia’s Cash In On Chaos (CIOC)\nconsulting service applies chaos theory\nto price prediction for a variety of equities by using the position of planetary bodies.It is the product of sometime\nSTOCKS &COMMODITIES contributor\nAl Larson (also known as Hans\nHannula),who offers a variety of chaos-related products,including MoonTide data every three months, courses, monographs, newsletters, and hotlines."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-70-72-quick-scan-cash-in-on-chaos-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-70-72-quick-scan-cash-in-on-chaos-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-70-72-quick-scan-cash-in-on-chaos-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v174quesareh,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (74-79): Questions Are The Heart Of The Matter by Ruth Barrons Roosevelt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Questions Are The Heart Of The Matter by Ruth Barrons Roosevelt
Questions can confound you or they can enlighten you. How can they help you in your trading?
If you’re not making money through your trading, you are probably not asking the right questions. The reason questions are so important is that they direct your thinking and your energy and, ultimately, your actions. Answers give you an assemblage of facts, but questions set up the groundwork for those facts. Questions create the architecture of your thinking and establish your direction. They direct the focus of your mind.
Some questions empower and some questions destroy. Some questions keep you stuck in the past and some move you forward. For example, “Why do I always lose?” presumes that if you have lost in the past, you will lose in the present and in the future. Further, that question establishes your identity as a loser. On the other hand, a question like “How can I increase the probabilities of winning?” assumes\nthat you can create an edge to change your trading results in the future. It creates potential for your becoming a winner and identifying yourself as a winner."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-74-79-questions-are-the-heart-of-the-matter-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-74-79-questions-are-the-heart-of-the-matter-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-74-79-questions-are-the-heart-of-the-matter-by-ruth-barrons-roosevelt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17779prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (77-79):Product Review:MarketWarrior 1.2"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MarketWarrior 1.2
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
AUSTIN FINANCIAL GROUP\nPO Box 152672\nAustin, TX 78715-2672\nPhone/fax: 512 280-5112\nE-mail: info@marketwarrior.com\nInternet: http://www.marketwarrior.com\nProduct: A cross–time frame technical\nanalysis program that crosses price bar\ncharts of one time frame with studies\nand patterns of another.\nEquipment requirements: Windows\n95/98/NT 4.0, 10 MB disk space, 16\nMB RAM, datafiles in ASCII, MetaStock,\nCSI, or Technical Tools format. Internet\naccess.\nPrice:$399
Prior to making trading decisions, you should study\nmore than one time frame\nwhen analyzing charts.\nMost charting tools give\nyou the flexibility to review various\ntime frames by moving from one to the\nother or viewing them all in separate\nwindows on one computer screen. However, if you wish to overlay indicators\nfrom one time frame onto another, it is\nusually not an easy task."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-77-79-product-review-marketwarrior-1-2-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-77-79-product-review-marketwarrior-1-2-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-77-79-product-review-marketwarrior-1-2-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1814let,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (8-14): Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters
Letters this month include questions on end point moving average, trading psychology, strength and resistance, a buyer beware, price patters, and testing and optimization."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-8-14-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-8-14-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-8-14-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v180ingarbsm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (80-95): Interview: Gary B.Smith Of TheStreet.com by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V.18:10 (80-95):Interview:Gary B.Smith Of TheStreet.com by John Sweeney
Trader, author, and TV personality Gary B.Smith trades for a living and has done so since splitting with Sports Illustrated, where he covered pro golf. More prominently, Gary writes about his trading in unusually frank terms for TheStreet.com and appears on Fox News Channel as a market commentator. A prototypical retail trader, a pure technician, and articulate to boot, he was just the sort of person we were looking for in July 12, 2000, when we caught up with him in his trading room in his Maryland home."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-80-95-interview-gary-b-smith-of-thestreet-com-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-80-95-interview-gary-b-smith-of-thestreet-com-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-80-95-interview-gary-b-smith-of-thestreet-com-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v198tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap10oc20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:10 (98-106): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Tips
This month's Traders' Tips have MetaStock formula for \""Ichimoku Charts\"" by Ken Muranaka, \""Playing the Breakouts: Gary B. Smith Of TheStreet.com\"", and \""Normalization\"" by Brian Bell. AIQ TradingExpert code is supplied for \""Playing the Breakouts: Gary B. Smith Of TheStreet.com\"", and \""Normalization\"" by Brian Bell.
Omega Research code is given for \""Ichimoku Charts\"" by Ken Muranaka; NeuroShell Trader code for \""Enhanced Fund Switching\"" by Jack Singer, \""Playing the Breakouts: Gary B. Smith Of TheStreet.com\"", Ichimoku charting, and \""Normalization\"" by Brian Bell; Byte Into The Market provided sample coding for Ichimoku charts, and normalization formulas for Brian Bell's sidebar. TradingSolutions also reproduced the latter's normalization formulas.
TechniFilter Plus provided coding for \""Ichimoku Charts,\"" and \""Enhanced Fund Switching.\"" SmarTrader provided coding for \""Ichimoku Charts,\"" and Wave Wi$e provided coding for \""Playing the Breakouts: Gary B. Smith Of TheStreet.com.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-98-106-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-98-106-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-10-98-106-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v110lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (10-17): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
Readers sent in letters discussing on-balance volume, stochastic pop enhancement using RSI, the put/call oscillator, the Chaikin Money Flow, and adaptive trends and oscillators."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-10-17-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-10-17-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-10-17-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v110tradresh,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (104-105): Traders’ Resource: Hardware"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Resource: Hardware
Hardware choices these days often boil down to getting the fastest processor and the most memory you can afford, together with a cable connection or another high-bandwidth connection for quotes. Dual processors aren’t too much for some of the software that’s available for traders. The new LCD screens are\nmuch easier on the eyes, so pay up for those. That said, the vendors listed here can supply you with some tweaks, such as customized trading setups and multiple-monitor setups.
Regarding multiple monitors, you’ll probably want to have Windows 98 or later installed on your machine to make the smoothest transition. Win 98 has built-in features for multiple monitors, but Win 95 and earlier rely on the vendors’ own software.
Finally, don’t ignore the ergonomics of your setup, especially if you’re daytrading. You’re going to spend a lot of time at your desk, and it had better be comfortable and suitable for your needs. Custom-fit your seating first, then build the desk and displays around that. Phone setups should be one-button connections and headsets leave your hands free. Generally, incandescent light will be easier on your eyes than fluorescent. After that, though, whether you succeed is up to you."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-104-105-traders-resource-hardware-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-104-105-traders-resource-hardware-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-104-105-traders-resource-hardware-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v110tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (106-113): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Tips
Here is this month's selection of Traders' Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented:
EasyLanguage code for Hilbert Channel Breakout indicator, John Ehler's revised version of the Hilbert indicator for EasyLanguage code, EasyLanguage code for Brian Bell's article \""Normalization\"", NeuroShell DayTrader Professional applied to \""Optimization With Hilbert Indicators\"", and how to computer fixed length cycles using Wave Wi$e."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-106-113-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-106-113-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-106-113-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v119opwithil,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (19-26): Optimizing With Hilbert Indicators by Roger Darley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Optimizing With Hilbert Indicators by Roger Darley
Adjusting your trading signals to account for what’s actually happening in the market can mean a nice profit for you.
If I knew what the optimum moving average length (or any other filter ’s length) was on a daily basis, then my indicators and trading strategies could be optimized for what is actually happening in the market. John Ehlers’s recent articles in the March and May 2000 issues of STOCKS & COMMODITIES concerning adaptive indicators for traders now make it possible to do just that —optimize trading strategies for what is actually happening in the market on a day-by-day basis. When I do this, I find I have a 10 –20% improvement in my results.
Here ’s how to build a simple channel breakout system using EasyLanguage code (see Traders’ Tips, “Hilbert channel breakout indicator”), which incorporates adaptive filters that adjust moving averages to reflect actual market conditions. I got the idea from working with Ehlers’s MESA software, but the idea works just as well with the indicators that he published in S&C."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-19-26-optimizing-with-hilbert-indicators-by-roger-darley-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-19-26-optimizing-with-hilbert-indicators-by-roger-darley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-19-26-optimizing-with-hilbert-indicators-by-roger-darley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v128cancharf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (28-34): Candlestick Charts For Daytrading by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Candlestick Charts For Daytrading by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
Does this sound familiar? The price of a stock is moving up. Feeling the adrenaline course through your body, you click the buy button. You watch in horror as the market tumbles, taking the stock with it. After all is said and done, you end up with a huge loss. Frustrated, you wonder what went wrong.
The idea of daytrading tempts us all, considering how easy access is to high-speed Internet connections and direct-access brokers. However, there are substantial risks involved, and to protect yourself, you need to understand what is going on in the market. After trying various methods, I have discovered a simple one\nthat works with a fairly high degree of profitability. It is based on candlestick chart formations and volume. Understanding the relationship between price and\nvolume allowed me to understand the degree to which buyers and sellers control the market at any given time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-28-34-candlestick-charts-for-daytrading-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-28-34-candlestick-charts-for-daytrading-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-28-34-candlestick-charts-for-daytrading-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v135qabydonb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (35): Q&A by Don Bright"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Q&A by Don Bright
Don Bright answers questions on how to create a Gann fan line, commodity options, and Smith indicator market timing."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-35-q-a-by-don-bright-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-35-q-a-by-don-bright-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-35-q-a-by-don-bright-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v136nasaddec,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (36-44): Nasdaq Advances — Declines by Dennis D. Peterson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Nasdaq Advances — Declines by Dennis D. Peterson
This market breadth indicator remains one of the most popular ways to gauge market movement.
Market indices can rise on the backs of just a few stocks. This is especially true with the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, since both are weighted by market capitalization. Market breadth indicators that can picture the entire market help traders and investors identify market momentum. The three measures typically used to characterize the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Nasdaq, and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) are advances – declines, up/down volume, and new highs/new lows. Since many older textbooks do not mention the Nasdaq, let’s see what historical measures of breadth can do to help us understand Nasdaq momentum. One measure that has been used for a long time is the running total of advances minus declines. Figure 1 shows that for July 1999 through July 2000, there was a slow but steady erosion of breadth. Some flattening of the curve occurred with the small rally during June and July 2000, indicating that the Nasdaq rose on the backs of the equities with large market capitalization. This fit with analysts ’view that only the strongest companies would survive, pointing out that many Internet companies were struggling. The flattening indicated that breadth improved; that is, advances were equaling declines."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-36-44-nasdaq-advances-declines-by-dennis-d-peterson-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-36-44-nasdaq-advances-declines-by-dennis-d-peterson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-36-44-nasdaq-advances-declines-by-dennis-d-peterson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v146twodpric,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (46-53): Two-Day Price Patterns by Martin J. Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Two-Day Price Patterns by Martin J. Pring
Coming at the end of a trend, these two-day patterns are solid signals of a reversal. Here’s the last of Pring’s three articles on price patterns.
Two-day price pattern formations, unlike others we have discussed, take just one or two days to complete and have a relatively short-term significance. I refer to them as “one-” or “two-day” patterns, but the wording could just as easily apply to weekly or monthly bars. I have even referred to this phenomenon on intraday charts as one-or two-bar price patterns, because that is what they are. In retrospect, it is probably better to use the generic “bar” rather than individual timeframes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-46-53-two-day-price-patterns-by-martin-j-pring-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-46-53-two-day-price-patterns-by-martin-j-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-46-53-two-day-price-patterns-by-martin-j-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15457prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (54-57):Product Review:The On-Site Trader"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The On-Site Trader
by John Sweeney
ON-SITE TRADING, INC.\n98 Cutter Mill Road\nGreat Neck, NY 11021\nPhone: 888 402-0533\nFax: 516 482 9388\nE-mail: sales@onsitetrading.com\nInternet: http://www.onsitetrading.com\nProduct: Fully integrated, direct-access, real-time stock trading station.\nEquipment requirements: Pentium\n350 with 128 MB RAM, Windows 95/\n98/NT/2000. Connection via point-to-point, 56K dialup modem, VPN, or\nbroadband Internet service provider.\nPrice: $19.95 a trade or less. Beginners’ package: $0.01 to $0.02 per share\nplus free Level II with $15,000 account\n($9.95 minimum, $19.95 maximum).
Direct-access trading is the\nhot venue in brokerages\nthese days as traders increasingly try to cut out the\nbottlenecks in hitting the\nbid or smacking the ask. Convenience,\nspeed (direct routing), price improvement, and cheap commissions are the\nbig issues, though minimum account\nsize rears its head occasionally. On-Site\nTrading comes out well in most of these\nthings, save the last: minimum account\nsize is $25,000."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-54-57-product-review-the-on-site-trader-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-54-57-product-review-the-on-site-trader-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-54-57-product-review-the-on-site-trader-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v158oporstop,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (58-64): Options Or Stops? by Joe Luisi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Options Or Stops? by Joe Luisi
Options may cost less and give you more flexibility than outright stops. Here’s how to choose between options and stops and some ways of using both throughout the life of the trade.
Stops are essential, but they don’t have to be orders to buy or sell stock or futures. Options are sometimes preferable to futures or stocks, due to their limited\nrisk:if you own them, you can only lose the cost of the option. Here ’s how to go about it.
Once you take a futures position either buying or selling, you should place a stop to get you out of the market if your analysis turns out to be wrong. Typically, traders use a swing high or low as a stop point, or maybe a recent high/low, or lowest low/highest high of the last x number of days.
Some use a money stop, say $500. The only problem with a money stop is that if a market becomes volatile, the $500 stop may actually be too tight."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-58-64-options-or-stops-by-joe-luisi-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-58-64-options-or-stops-by-joe-luisi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-58-64-options-or-stops-by-joe-luisi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16669prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (66-69):Product Review:EZ-PnF"",""caption-linebreaks"":""EZ-PnF\nVersion 2.30
by Dennis D.Peterson
BCA SOFTWARE\n1801 Tartan Court\nCharlotte, NC 28212-6759\nE-mail: BCASoftware@ez-pnf.com\nInternet: http://www.ez-pnf.com\nProduct: Software for constructing\npoint and figure charts.\nEquipment requirements: PC with\n8088 to 6x86, AMD, or Pentium\nprocessor. EZ-PnF version 2.30 is a\nDOS-based program that runs natively\nunder PC-DOS or MS-DOS. Also\noperates in the DOS boxes of Windows and OS/2.\nPrice: Registration fee $25 for each\nregistered copy. No additional cost for\nE-mail delivery. For delivery on disk,\nadd $3 for US destinations, $6 for\nnon-US destinations for shipping and\nhandling per diskette.
BCA Software provides DOS-based software for point and\nfigure analysis. EZ-PnF, as\nthe name implies, installs\neasily and is used readily,\nand no DOS knowledge is required for\ninstallation and use. Navigation through\nthe software is key-based but also supports mouse use in most instances. If\nyou’re looking for a Windows interface, don’t be dissuaded; information\naccess is easy with EZ-PnF.
EZ-PnF has a number of features that\nenhance its use:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-66-69-product-review-ez-pnf-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-66-69-product-review-ez-pnf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-66-69-product-review-ez-pnf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v170whicinra,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (70-74): Which Inflation Rate? by Alex Saitta and Yuxin Li"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Which Inflation Rate? by Alex Saitta and Yuxin Li
So you’re going to use an inflation rate to gauge the market you’re interested in. Which one are you going to use? Which one fits your needs?
Bond yields provide a fixed coupon or income. As the rate of inflation rises, the coupon’s buying power declines; as the rate of inflation falls, more\ngoods and services can be purchased with that fixed coupon. For this reason bond yields are strongly linked to the inflation rate, and the inflation rate is of paramount importance to bond investors.
Which inflation rate, though? When talking about inflation in the context of their bond forecasts, economists often note the trend of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy prices (CPIXFAE). Laymen, though, still focus on the rate of the overall CPI. Is the relationship between the yield of the 30-year bond stronger with CPIXFAE or overall CPI?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-70-74-which-inflation-rate-by-alex-saitta-and-yuxin-li-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-70-74-which-inflation-rate-by-alex-saitta-and-yuxin-li-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-70-74-which-inflation-rate-by-alex-saitta-and-yuxin-li-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17678prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (76-78):Product Review:PatternSmasher 2.06"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PatternSmasher 2.06
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
KASANJIAN RESEARCH\nPO Box 4608\nBlue Jay, CA 92317\nPhone: 909 337-0816\nFax:909 337-8388\nE-mail: info@kasanjianresearch.com\nInternet: http://www.kasanjianresearch.com\nProduct: Identifies trading patterns on\nan end-of-day basis.\nEquipment requirements: IBM-PC\ncompatible computers running\nWindows 95/98/NT, Pentium 133\nMHz for Windows 95/98 and 200\nMHz for Windows NT, at least 32\nMB RAM (64 MB for Windows NT),\n70 MB of hard disk space, one\nstandard parallel port. Data formats\nsupported: TC2000 3 and 4;\nMetaStock; AIQ; CSI; ASCII.\nPrice: $1,895
Identifying patterns on a\nchart can be a challenging\ntask. No matter how difficult, however, it is a must\nfor any technical analyst, and because\nof its complexity, it is possible to overlook some patterns critical to your trading. To avoid those situations,\nKasanjian Research has introduced\nPatternSmasher 2.06, a program that\nwill automatically identify the patterns\nyou are looking for.
Sounds good — but you still need to\nknow what the patterns you’re looking for\nare. If you are scanning for head-and-shoulder patterns, you must know the\nrelationship between the beginning and\nend of price swings and the conditions\nthat need to be met when prices break\nabove the trendline. That way, you can\ngive PatternSmasher specific instructions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-76-78-product-review-patternsmasher-2-06-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-76-78-product-review-patternsmasher-2-06-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-76-78-product-review-patternsmasher-2-06-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v180injohcbo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap11nov20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:11 (80-98): Interview: John C. Bogle Of Vanguard"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: John C.Bogle Of Vanguard
John C.Bogle, president of Bogle Financial Markets Research Center, founded The Vanguard Group, Inc., in 1974, after having been associated with a predecessor company since 1951. The Vanguard Group is one of the largest mutual fund organizations in the world, with more than 100 mutual funds with current assets totaling more than $550 billion. In 1975, Bogle founded Vanguard 500 Index Fund, currently the largest fund in the group. It was the first index mutual fund.
Bogle is the author of two best-selling investment books. His third book, John Bogle On Investing: The First 50 Years, will be published by McGraw-Hill late in 2000.
Bogle’s philosophy of investing is the antithesis of the\ntypical trader’s, so we figured we’d get an earful talking to him. We weren’t disappointed! STOCKS & COMMODITIES Interim Editor John Sweeney spoke with Bogle via telephone on August 29, 2000."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-80-98-interview-john-c-bogle-of-vanguard-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-80-98-interview-john-c-bogle-of-vanguard-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-11-80-98-interview-john-c-bogle-of-vanguard-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v110let,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (10-14): Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters
December letters include comments from Arthur Merrill, and a clarification of Alex Saitta's article \""Commodities And The Inflation Rate.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-10-14-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-10-14-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-10-14-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v11011tradre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (100-105, 112-113): Traders’ Resource: Mutual Funds"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Resource: Mutual Funds
When investing with mutual funds, the issue is cost of all kinds. Sales charges, turnover costs (trading costs), tax costs, management fees, marketing costs, and cash-holding costs all eat into your returns; then the compounding effect magnifies your losses. It’s critical to consider all of these costs when approaching mutual fund investing and do the appropriate research to make sure you are making the most of your investment. A\nfamily of low-cost, no-load funds that allows costless switching between funds can be very beneficial in the long run.
After you’ve minimized costs, you can look at returns. The benchmarks for returns are usually index funds that mirror one of the market indices, such as the S&P 500. It’s a challenge for actively managed funds to beat the returns of the benchmarks, especially when you take into account the costs of active management, so consider these index funds in your research.
Finally, consider balancing your portfolio between bonds or money market funds and equity funds. A mix of bond funds and equity funds is best for all but the youngest investor. This portfolio diversification will help limit your risk while still allowing for respectable returns.
This listing provides a sampling of the types of mutual funds available and some of the costs associated with them."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-100-105-112-113-traders-resource-mutual-funds-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-100-105-112-113-traders-resource-mutual-funds-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-100-105-112-113-traders-resource-mutual-funds-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v116martopby,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (16-22): Market Topology by Nicolas Vandewalle, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Topology by Nicolas Vandewalle, Ph.D.
Stock W affects stock X, which in turn affects stock Y, which drives stock Z. How do you work out all the interconnectivity? By using a market tree.
No single indicator seems to represent the global (or local) structure of the market. It is possible to group stocks by sectors and to assume that stocks in the same basket are highly correlated, but doing so leaves the structure within a sector and the relationships between sectors unspecified. Is an objective representation of the market’s structure possible? Could such a representation lead to a global view of the relationships between sectors or to a local view of the relationships between stocks? Knowing these relationships could provide trading advantages. Here’s an indicator that might be able to help you."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-16-22-market-topology-by-nicolas-vandewalle-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-16-22-market-topology-by-nicolas-vandewalle-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-16-22-market-topology-by-nicolas-vandewalle-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12398qabydo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (23, 98): Q&A by Don Bright"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Q&A by Don Bright
Professional trader Don Bright of Bright Trading, an equity trading corporation, answers a few of your questions on choosing stocks, moving average offset, following the index, and trading in decimals."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-23-98-q-a-by-don-bright-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-23-98-q-a-by-don-bright-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-23-98-q-a-by-don-bright-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v124tradanli,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (24-30): Trading Andrews Lines by John W. Chandler"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Andrews Lines by John W. Chandler
If you’ve ever wanted to know how to use the Andrews pitchfork technique, movement to movement, this should help you.
About 20 years ago, I first learned about the work of Alan Andrews and his pitchfork charting technique. The\nconcept seemed fairly straightforward; you start with a sequence of three turning points identified as the most\nsignificant highs and lows of the time frame you are working in. This can be either a high (A), low (B), high (C) or a low (A), high (B), low (C). (See Figure 1.) Next, you draw a line between the last two turning points (B and C), find the midpoint of that line (D)and draw a line from A, through D, and extend it to the right as far as needed (E). Then, extend the BC line both up and down by a distance equal to B-C in each direction, the endpoints of which I can label as B1 and C1. Now, draw lines from B1 and C1 to the right and each parallel to the ADE line. This forms a type of angled\npitchfork set of lines where the lines from B1, D, and C1 are all parallel to each other. Additional parallel lines of B2 and C2 and so forth can be added, but I’ve never bothered with the extensions of even B1 and C1."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-24-30-trading-andrews-lines-by-john-w-chandler-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-24-30-trading-andrews-lines-by-john-w-chandler-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-24-30-trading-andrews-lines-by-john-w-chandler-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v132volavpri,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (32-39): Volume-Weighted Average Pricing by Michael Tanksley, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume-Weighted Average Pricing by Michael Tanksley, Ph.D.
What price should you aim to beat in your trades? Here’s what the pros use.
J. Welles Wilder once said, “Somewhere amidst the maze of open, high, low, and close prices is a phantom line that is the real market. ”With that in mind, what numbers should you use to make your financial decisions? It’s hard enough to make those decisions, but it ’s even harder when you aren’t using numbers that truly represent the market. Volume-weighted average price (VWAP)is no phantom; it’s the solution Wilder was looking for and what Wall Street professionals depend on.
On the brokers’ floor, VWAP is the benchmark for rating\ntrades. Brokers use the number to know whether their trades are above or below market value. VWAP represents what’s really happening in the market because it takes into account not just minute-to-minute prices but also trading volume. That’s why the biggest question brokers ask each other about any trade is, “Did you beat the VWAP?”"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-32-39-volume-weighted-average-pricing-by-michael-tanksley-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-32-39-volume-weighted-average-pricing-by-michael-tanksley-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-32-39-volume-weighted-average-pricing-by-michael-tanksley-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v142claspoin,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (42-51): Classic Point And Figure by David Vomund"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Classic Point And Figure by David Vomund
It was around before computers; it was around before calculators. It’s been around forever, and despite that, it still works. It’s point and figure charting, and it still offers unique advantages. Here are some examples.
Most people use bar charts or candlestick charts in their analysis. Another charting form, point and figure, is less known but offers unique advantages over the more traditional charting methods. The point and figure charting technique became popular in 1948, when A. W. Cohen published his book on point and figure. Surprisingly, the methodology has hardly changed\nsince then.
Unlike bar charts, where the vertical coordinate is based on price and the horizontal coordinate is based on time, point and figure charts are only concerned with price. Although the year and months are reported on the\nhorizontal axis, they are shown merely to establish a frame of reference."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-42-51-classic-point-and-figure-by-david-vomund-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-42-51-classic-point-and-figure-by-david-vomund-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-42-51-classic-point-and-figure-by-david-vomund-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v154phasdisb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (54-66): Phasor Displays by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Phasor Displays by John F. Ehlers
A high-tech display pinpoints anomalies and trading opportunities in price behavior.
Remember that famous glass of water? The one that optimists see as half full and pessimists see as half empty? An engineer, however, sees the glass as having been designed with too much capacity. So what we see is really a matter of perception.
Market technicians have designed a variety of techniques to visualize what has happened and to predict what the future holds. Candlestick charts and point and figure charts are two examples of charting price data. When it comes to indicators, there is a plethora of wiggles, squiggles, zig-zags, and channels that require volumes to describe.
I would now like to add to this din of displays a new and novel one so sensitive that it dramatically pinpoints variations and anomalies that cannot be removed with mathematical filters — at least within the lag constraints imposed by trading considerations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-54-66-phasor-displays-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-54-66-phasor-displays-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-54-66-phasor-displays-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v168inyalhir,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (68-80): Interview: Yale Hirsch: Market Historian by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Yale Hirsch: Market Historian by John Sweeney
Yale Hirsch is best known as the editor and publisher of The Stock Trader’s Almanac, now in its 33rd annual edition. He is a stock market historian and stock analyst who could probably tell you, within reason, what the stock market is likely to do any hour, on any day, in any future year. That’s not the result of any clairvoyance on his part, but rather the result of his detailed analysis of historical stock market behavior and cycles in differing political and economic environments.
The January barometer is the best-known indicator formulated by Hirsch, and it states that as January goes, so goes the entire stock market year. Other indicators he is known for include the Santa Claus rally and the best six consecutive months of the year. A firm observer of seasonality, Hirsch tracks similar recurring phenomena in mutual funds, fast-growing companies, and trading situations. STOCKS &COMMODITIES Editor John Sweeney caught up with the nation’s market historian in late August 2000."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-68-80-interview-yale-hirsch-market-historian-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-68-80-interview-yale-hirsch-market-historian-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-68-80-interview-yale-hirsch-market-historian-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v184ovtradsb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (84-86): Overcoming Trader’s Block by Hal Masover"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Overcoming Trader’s Block by Hal Masover
You’ve done everything you can think of to profit from your trading. Why aren’t you making any money? Maybe the problem isn’t with your system.
I must have spoken to more than 1,000 traders in the past couple of years at various conferences for traders and investors. I have met a few consistently profitable traders, but they have been unusual; for the most part, I met a lot of interesting, knowledgeable people\nwith good trading methods who despite all of that are unprofitable. Why?
The lack of success often has to do with the trader’s actions in the market rather than his methods. Some traders are afraid to pull the trigger, while others have no trouble getting into trades but take their profits too quickly. Many simply override their methods for emotional reasons. These tendencies to sabotage are variations of what I refer to as trader’s block ."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-84-86-overcoming-trader-s-block-by-hal-masover-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-84-86-overcoming-trader-s-block-by-hal-masover-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-84-86-overcoming-trader-s-block-by-hal-masover-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18891prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (88-91):Product Review:TradingSolutions 1.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TradingSolutions 1.0
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
NEURODIMENSION, INC.\n1800 N. Main St., Suite D4\nGainesville, FL 32609\nPhone: 800 634-3327, 352 377-5144\nFax: 352 377-9009\nE-mail: info@tradingsolutions.net\nInternet: http://www.tradingsolutions.net\nProduct: Software utilizing neural networks and genetic algorithms to predict\nfinancial markets.\nEquipment requirements: Windows\n95/98/NT/2000, Pentium/Pentium-compatible processor, 800X600 resolution with 256-color monitor; minimum\n35 MB hard disk space.\nPrice:$995
Artificial intelligence, neural\nnetworks, and genetic algorithms are all terms that will\nturn off anyone who isn’t a\ntech junkie. But believe it or not, you\nreally don’t need to be one to use a\nproduct like TradingSolutions from\nNeuroDimension, Inc. In fact, you are\nprobably better off not knowing the complex mechanisms that go into designing\nneural networks and instead just depending on the visual results like the display\nin Figure 1."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-88-91-product-review-tradingsolutions-1-0-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-88-91-product-review-tradingsolutions-1-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-88-91-product-review-tradingsolutions-1-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1939599trad,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap12dec20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (93, 95, 99): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Tips
This month's selection of Traders' Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software, include MetaStock and C++ code for \""Refining The Hilbert Indicator\"" by John Ehlers and \""Optimizing With Hilbert Indicators\"" by Roger Darley; Byte Into The Market's system for \""Chaikin's Money Flow\""; and an example of neural networks using NeuroShell Daytrader Professional software."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-93-95-99-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-93-95-99-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-93-95-99-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19698quicsc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:12 (96-98):Quick Scan:Scan Wizard"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Scan Wizard software scans lists of stock ticker symbols for breakout trend changes, which it then logs in a table\nwith a buy or sell signal based on price, volume, trend, and momentum. It can also create a track record for all buy –\nsell signals for each and every ticker symbol; chart an issue (candles, force index, and stochastics) (Figure 1); and access news (from Yahoo!) on any ticker symbol."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-96-98-quick-scan-scan-wizard-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-96-98-quick-scan-scan-wizard-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-12-96-98-quick-scan-scan-wizard-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1814bookfor,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap15bookfo"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:14:Books for Traders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""BOOKS FOR TRADERS
A year's worth of book reviews from STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, conveniently listed in alphabetical order. Includes titles that were published between 2000 and 2001."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-14-books-for-traders-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-14-books-for-traders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-14-books-for-traders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1webfortrad,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap16web20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:15: Websites for Traders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""WEBSITES FOR TRADERS
A year's worth of website reviews from STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, conveniently listed in alphabetical order. Includes sites that were published between 2000 and 2001. 23 pages (8,896K)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-15-websites-for-traders-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-15-websites-for-traders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-15-websites-for-traders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v11622pivpoi,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap2feb20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (16-22):Pivot Points by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pivot Points
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
Classic techniques still work on charts at all time\nlevels, and the most basic charting technique is the\nidentification and development of pivot points. Take\na look.
Cut your losses, ride\nyour profits! That\nadage should be\nfamiliar to all traders,\nand it may buzz\nthrough their minds as\nsomething taken for\ngranted but not easy\nto implement. The\npivot point technique\ncan help you do both.
Floor traders use pivot points to determine critical price and\nsupport/resistance levels. It is a relatively simple calculation\nthat can be jotted on the back of a trading card for easy\nreference. Off-floor traders who have the luxury of looking\nat monitors with real-time datafeeds can adopt this technique\nas well.
CALCULATION
A pivot point is the price at which the direction of price\nmovement changes. It is calculated using data from the\nprevious trading day. By looking at the high,low,and close,\nyou can calculate the next day’s pivot point as well as support\nand resistance levels.
Many variations exist for calculating the pivot point and related support and resistance levels. Here are a few:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-16-22-pivot-points-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-16-22-pivot-points-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-16-22-pivot-points-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12430triana,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap2feb20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (24-30):Triangles And Trends by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Triangles And T ends
Building positions is an essential exploitation of a\nsuccessful trade, and triangle formations can be key\nto doing so.
The classic technical trader relies\nupon various chart formations\nfor determining market tops,\nbottoms, and consolidations.\nAlthough the triangle chart\nformation can be a trend reversal\nor a consolidation, I want to show\nyou how to use it as a continuation pattern,how to\nidentify it as it develops,and how to trade it.
What are triangles? They are simply sideways\ntrading action, with the widest part of the correction\noccurring earliest in the development of the pattern.\nAs the market marks time,the trading range narrows,\nforming the shape of a triangle.
Why do triangles occur? According to the classic\ntome Profits In The Stock Market, by H.M.Gartley:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-24-30-triangles-and-trends-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-24-30-triangles-and-trends-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-24-30-triangles-and-trends-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v132quicscan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (32):Quick Scan:Profitunity Trading Group Home Study Course"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Profitunity Trading Group has organized the research and teachings of trader Bill Williams into a complete home\nstudy course for the active trader.With\na background in engineering and psychology and more than 40 years of active trading experience, Williams has\ndeveloped a unique trading philosophy\nthat this course embodies."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-32-quick-scan-profitunity-trading-group-home-study-course-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-32-quick-scan-profitunity-trading-group-home-study-course-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-32-quick-scan-profitunity-trading-group-home-study-course-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13643seastr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap2feb20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (36-43):Seasonal Trades And The Channel Breakout System by John L.Momsen"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Seasonal Trades And\nThe Channel Breakout System
by John L.Momsen
Many seasonal trades have been consistently profitable over\nmany years, but using them can be tricky because you never\nknow if this will be the year that events won’t follow the\nestablished patterns. You can gauge whether patterns are\nbreaking as expected by using the channel breakout system.\nSeasonal trades often come with\n90%success rates, but that’s\nhistorical information. You\nneed to know what's happening now as you put on a trade.\nNothing's more frustrating than\nentering - and exiting - at\nthe historical right time, only\nto take a loss. Here, then,is a\ntechnique for a seasonal trade\nconfirming your entry point\nusing the channel breakout system, versions of which are\nwidespread in trading. Using channel breakout, you can\nbump up your personal success rate on seasonals to over the\n90% mark.
As an experienced futures trader, I am a confirmed believer\nin the power and profitability of seasonal trading. For the\nuninitiated, seasonals are defined as the up and down market\ntrends or yearly cycles that recur at approximately the same\ntime each year. A seasonal trader normally adheres to a\ncalendar of entry and exit dates as the bases for making\ntrading decisions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-36-43-seasonal-trades-and-the-channel-breakout-system-by-john-l-momsen-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-36-43-seasonal-trades-and-the-channel-breakout-system-by-john-l-momsen-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-36-43-seasonal-trades-and-the-channel-breakout-system-by-john-l-momsen-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14453foropb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap2feb20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (44-53):Forcing Optimization by Vincenzo Sciarretta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Forcing\nOptimization
by Vincenzo Sciarretta
Sooner or later, most system-oriented traders backtest a\nmechanical system and get a positive result - and then\nhave it perform poorly in real-life situations. What gives?
Sooner or later, most system-oriented traders experience\nthis dismaying conundrum:\nThey formulate a mechanical\nsystem, backtest it over a\nconvenient period, and get a\nvery positive result. They\nwatch the equity line and see\nit rise in an almost straight\nline with small but\nacceptable drawdowns.\nWith a methodology called forcing optimization.
As an example of contrary results, I used a mechanical\nsystem from Martin Pring’s excellent Technical Analysis\nExplained. The system presented by Pring was devised for\nthe dollar/sterling on a weekly basis, but that’s not the way I’ll\nbe using it here. This mechanical system combines a moving\naverage and two rates of change,a short one and a long one.\nHere are the system rules in general terms:\nThings look downright rosy.But then they start trading the\nmarket and, despite the positive backtesting,proceed to\nlose money with the system!Why this occurs with dismal\nand predictable regularity is too expansive a subject to get\ninto here;I will deal with it at another time. But we can\ndiscuss how to limit this sad but all-too-common occurrence,"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-44-53-forcing-optimization-by-vincenzo-sciarretta-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-44-53-forcing-optimization-by-vincenzo-sciarretta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-44-53-forcing-optimization-by-vincenzo-sciarretta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15663marpha,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap2feb20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (56-63):Market Phase And Chart Formation by Chuck Dukas"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Phase\nAnd Chart\nFormation
by Chuck Dukas
Some market behaviors are more common during\nsome market phases than others. Take a look.
Certain chart formations are often\nassociated with certain market phases.\nEach chart has a personality of its\nown,no two being alike, just as you\nand I have our own personalities. I\nassess the movement of stocks in four phases\n(accumulation,markup,distribution, and mark-\ndown), and the crossing of the 50-period simple\nmoving average (SMA) indicating an intermediate\nbullish or bearish trend exists. I use two periods of\nclosing price above or below the 50-period SMA to\nconfirm the move.
During the markup and distribution phases, prices\nmust be above the 50-period SMA, whereas during\nthe distribution and markdown phases, prices must\nbe below. I associate buying with the accumulation\nand markup phases and selling with the distribution\nand markdown phases."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-56-63-market-phase-and-chart-formation-by-chuck-dukas-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-56-63-market-phase-and-chart-formation-by-chuck-dukas-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-56-63-market-phase-and-chart-formation-by-chuck-dukas-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16468prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (64-68):Product Review:A-T Attitude"",""caption-linebreaks"":""When it comes to receiving\nreal-time data, it goes\nwithout saying that speed, reliability, and accessibility\nare the most important factors. A-T Financial fills this need by bringing you real-time data via the\nInternet. You can load more than 500\nsecurities at a time using as many\nmonitors as your system is capable of\nsupporting.Further,A-T Attitude can\naccommodate an unlimited number of\ninstruments traded on US and Canadian\nexchanges."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-64-68-product-review-a-t-attitude-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-64-68-product-review-a-t-attitude-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-64-68-product-review-a-t-attitude-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17071quicsc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (70-71):Quick Scan:LIFFE Data Version 3.0 With Lifestyle Software"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here ’s the latest opportunity from\nEurope ’s premier financial exchange,\nthe London International Financial\nFutures and Options Exchange (LIFFE),\nto view and extract data of options and\nfutures contracts,with version 3.0 of\nLIFFE Data.The data comes in the\nform of compact discs (CDs),with\neach CD available representing a\nspecific market ’s futures and options\ndata."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-70-71-quick-scan-liffe-data-version-3-0-with-lifestyle-software-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-70-71-quick-scan-liffe-data-version-3-0-with-lifestyle-software-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-70-71-quick-scan-liffe-data-version-3-0-with-lifestyle-software-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17376tradti,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap2feb20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (73-76):Traders ’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""METASTOCK
In the November 1999 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nBenjamin Cotton introduced the target price indicator in\n“Triggering Your Trading Signal.” To recreate this indicator\nin MetaStock 6.52 or higher, select “Indicator builder” from\nthe Tools menu, click New, and enter the following formula:
For the BogiePX enter:
x:=Input(“length of 1st moving average”,2,200,5);
y:=Input(“length of 2nd moving average”,2,200,10);
((y*Sum(C,x-1))-(x*Sum(C,y-1)))/(x-y)
For the percent change,enter the following formula:
x:=Input(“length of 1st moving average”,2,200,5);
y:=Input(“length of 2nd moving average”,2,200,10);
((((y*(Sum(C,x-1))-(x*Sum(C,y-1)))/(x-y))/Close)-1)*100
—Cheryl Elton, Equis International
http://www.equis.com"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-73-76-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-73-76-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-73-76-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17886thomdo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap2feb20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (78-86):Thomas Donovan And Patrick Catania Of The CBOT by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""This Brave New orld\nThomas Donovan\nAnd Patrick Catania\nOf The CBOT
Last issue, STOCKS & COMMODITIES presented one take on the\nfuture of exchanges during our interview with Leo Melamed,\nchairman emeritus of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.\nMeanwhile, across town at the Chicago Board of Trade, the\ncompetition isn’t sitting back either. Fresh from wrapping up\na major alliance with Eurex, which is arguably Europe’s\npremier exchange, Thomas R. Donovan, president and chief\nexecutive officer, and Patrick Catania, executive vice president for business development of the CBOT, spoke with S&C\nto make sense of all the changes in store for personal\ntraders, floor traders, and institutional traders as the foundation beneath the old ways of doing business disappears.
S&C Interim Editor John Sweeney, an open skeptic on the\nviability of exchanges, found Donovan and Catania in\nagreement with the Merc on one point: if they don’t misstep, they’re going to be the leaders in this brave new world.\nDonovan and Catania spoke with Sweeney via telephone on\nOctober 14,1999."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-78-86-thomas-donovan-and-patrick-catania-of-the-cbot-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-78-86-thomas-donovan-and-patrick-catania-of-the-cbot-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-78-86-thomas-donovan-and-patrick-catania-of-the-cbot-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v182814letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap2feb20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (8-14):Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Tell us\nabout it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine\nwould not exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@traders.com. Letter-writers must\ninclude their full name and address for verification. Letters may be edited for length or\nclarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily represent those of the\nmagazine. —Editor
CANDLESTICKS FORMULAS
Editor,
I’m a long-time reader,\nfirst-time writer. The article “Candlestick Filtering ”by Rudy Teseo in\nDecember 1999 inspired me to start writing my own formulas again. With the help\nof the MetaStock outline given in your\nTraders’ Tips column also in the December 1999 issue, I have something to play\nwith. Please keep up the good work.
JACK, via E-mail
Thanks for taking the time to write.\nFeedback from readers helps keep Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, The Traders’ Magazine, on track.\nOur goal is to publish articles each month\nthat can help every reader trade profitably. Each person trades differently, so\nwe try to publish a mix of material.\nIf any reader develops something that\ncould help other traders and would like\nto share the tip, please consider sending\nit to us for possible publication in Traders’ Tips.. —Publisher"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-8-14-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-8-14-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-8-14-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18892prodre1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (88-92):Product Review:Ensign Windows"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How’d you like some fast, efficient trading software\nthat costs about $30 a month instead of thousands? What\nif it came with an efficient testing language for smoothing your trading ideas into shape? And the program was rock-solid, allowing you to run it and everything else you wanted to run on one machine? What if your tech support came in the form of the guy who’s writing the program — a guy\nwho can turn around and fix your tweak or bug in 24 hours or so? If all that makes sense to you, you ’ll need to prowl the Internet to find Ensign Software. There won’t be any glossy ads, but you’ll be dealing with a company that’s been in the trading and software business since 1983. In\naddition,the authors are traders themselves and will know what you’re describing when you call."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-88-92-product-review-ensign-windows-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-88-92-product-review-ensign-windows-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-88-92-product-review-ensign-windows-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19397tradre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap2feb20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:2 (93-97):Traders’ Resource - Trading Systems"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Resource: Trading Systems
Are you looking for a trading system to\nhelp you automate your buy and sell\ndecisions? Well, there are certainly many\nsystems out there to choose from. This\nmonth in Traders’ Resource, we present a\nlist of publicly available trading systems,\nmost of which are sold as software packages for personal computers.
We contacted trading system developers and vendors and\nasked them to fill out an online survey form to describe their\nproduct or products. Here, you’ll find a summary of the data\nwe collected. While we’re only able to present an abbreviated\namount of the information here in the magazine due to the\nspace constraints of the printed page, you ’ll find the complete\nlisting of product specifics at our Website, http://www.traders.com. Just click on the Traders’ Resource link\nand then on the Trading Systems category link.
The product information you’ll find at our Website for\ntrading systems will help answer questions such as: What\nindicators does the system utilize? What markets are followed\nby the trading system? Are additional applications required to\nuse the trading system? What types of customer support are\noffered? What are the primary features of the trading system?\nWe hope this resource will help you narrow down your search\nand find the trading system that is right for you and your\ntrading needs."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-93-97-traders-resource-trading-systems-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-93-97-traders-resource-trading-systems-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-2-93-97-traders-resource-trading-systems-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1101quicsca,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (101):Quick Scan:Trader's Boot Camp"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trader’s Boot Camp brings the teachings of several well-known trading instructors into your home or workplace\nvia the Internet.Two online courses are\navailable on the Trader ’s Boot Camp\nWebsite."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-101-quick-scan-trader-s-boot-camp-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-101-quick-scan-trader-s-boot-camp-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-101-quick-scan-trader-s-boot-camp-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1102105trad1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (102-105):Traders’ Resource:Online Trading Services"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Resource:\nOnline Trading Services
Each month in STOCKS & COMMODITIES’\nTraders’ Resource, we present a listing\nfor different categories of products and\nservices related to trading, all to aid our\nreaders in their pursuit of trading. This\ntime, we focus on the topic of Online\nTrading Services.
You can find a wealth of information on the Internet for\nnearly any subject imaginable, including trading, the financial markets, and technical analysis. We’ve compiled a list of\nInternet sites that focus on a variety of investment and\ntrading topics.
We contacted online trading services and financial Website\ndevelopers and asked them to fill out an online survey form"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-102-105-traders-resource-online-trading-services-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-102-105-traders-resource-online-trading-services-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-102-105-traders-resource-online-trading-services-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v11627hilint,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (16-27):Hilbert Indicators Tell You When To Trade by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Hilbert Indicators Tell\nYou When To Trade by John Ehlers
On Lag, Signal Processing, And The Hilbert Transform
Here's one way to control moving average lag, using a little\nmath and a little-known algorithm called the Hilbert transform to come up with indicators telling you when to trade.
Two characteristics of moving\naverages are that they smooth\nthe input data and they lag the\ninput data. Their use and application is almost always a\ntradeoff between these two\ncharacteristics. The smoothing\nfunction removes the higher-frequency components (that is, the rapid up and down movements)of the input prices, so\nmoving averages are also referred to as low-pass filters by\nengineers. This means moving averages display or allow to\npass through only the low-frequency components (that is, the\nslow up and down movements) while removing the high-frequency components. Essentially, what you’ll see instead\nof raw prices jumping around is a smoothly moving line\nslowly oscillating up and down.
Moving average lag is perhaps the most important characteristic for traders to understand quantitatively. Figure 1 shows how a simple moving average is formed. Data within the observation window is averaged to produce a single point. The observation window (the dotted box) is moved forward in time from bar to bar to form a continuous moving average. If the weighting of the data values within the observation window is uniform, the average value of the data is centered in the horizontal dimension of the window and is also centered in the vertical dimension of the window."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-16-27-hilbert-indicators-tell-you-when-to-trade-by-john-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-16-27-hilbert-indicators-tell-you-when-to-trade-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-16-27-hilbert-indicators-tell-you-when-to-trade-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12832letopp,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (28-32):Let Options Pay For Your Stops by Joe Luisi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Let Options\nPay For Your\nStops by Joe Luisi
Want to get into positions with good risk-return ratios and\nfirm boundaries of gain and loss? Look no further: Here’s a\ntechnique for having it all — or most of it, anyway.
You know you should use stops,\nbut they cause losses, don’t\nthey? Would you use stops if\nyou could minimize or even\nerase those losses by selling\noptions? Would stops look better to you then?\nSooner or later, every trader\ncomes to realize that he needs\nto use stops. It doesn’t matter if\nyou’re a short-term trader or a longer-term trader; stops are\nessential for the preservation of capital. In addition, using a\nstop makes you be very specific about the point at which\nyou’ll admit you were wrong about a trade. But is there a way\nthat you can somehow reduce the costs of stops? Better yet,\nis there a way to make money even if you get stopped out?
Enter, if you will, the wonderful world of options. Options have become so popular\nthat almost every futures market offers them,and more than\n2,000 stocks do as well. I’m\ngoing to assume that you have\na basic working knowledge of\noptions, and I’ll show you how\nto use them to help cover the\ncosts of your stops."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-28-32-let-options-pay-for-your-stops-by-joe-luisi-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-28-32-let-options-pay-for-your-stops-by-joe-luisi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-28-32-let-options-pay-for-your-stops-by-joe-luisi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13438trenba,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (34-38):Trendline Basics by Martin Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trendline Basics by Martin Pring
The trend of prices is the feature\nthat is most sought after in technical analysis, yet surprisingly simple\nconstructs can get you right with\nthe market. Here, veteran trader\nand analyst Martin Pring takes you\nthrough the basics of creating and\ninterpreting trendlines.
Trendlines are a\nsimple but highly\neffective tool. In\ntechnical analysis, we assume\nprices move in trends, and that once\nbegun, a trend continues. Therefore, you, as a technician, must be\nconcerned with identifying a price\nreversal at an early stage and riding\nit until the evidence proves the trend\nhas once again turned. Trendlines\nrepresent one of these items of evidence.
Trendlines are not perfect tools,\nbut then, what technical indicators\nare? In my experience, however,they\ncan be highly effective. If I had to be\ncast off on a deserted island with only\ntwo or three technical indicators, I\nwould not hesitate to take trendlines\nalong."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-34-38-trendline-basics-by-martin-pring-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-34-38-trendline-basics-by-martin-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-34-38-trendline-basics-by-martin-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14049usexco,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (40-49):Using Expert Commentary by Mark Vakkur"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Expert\nCommentary by Mark Vakkur
One of the most neglected features of TradeStation is the\nability to create and modify a study’s Expert Commentary.\nAnd you don’t have to be an expert to use it; if you can create a study, you can create expert commentary. This feature can add a new dimension to your chart analysis.
Used correctly, TradeStation\ncommentary can jog your\nmemory for important\nassociations, point out\ninteresting or unusual things in\nnarrative text (instead of being\na blip buried in a busy chart),\nand even serve as a substitute\nfor TradeStation’s data\nwindow, allowing you to see\nonly the data you are most\ninterested in and displayed in the format you want.\nFurther, you don’t need to be a programmer to create\npowerful commentary — although if you are a programmer,\nthe sky’s the limit. In fact, by cutting and pasting the code\nsupplied here, you can be on your way to making and\nmodifying your own TradeStation Expert Commentary in a\nfew minutes. If you’re really impatient, type in the code\nshown in the sidebar \""Commentary code,\"" get it running, and\nthen go back to the article for explanation and elaboration\nabout the elements that most interest you. The illustrations\nhere are in TradeStation 4.0, but the code should work in\nTradeStation 2000i."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-40-49-using-expert-commentary-by-mark-vakkur-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-40-49-using-expert-commentary-by-mark-vakkur-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-40-49-using-expert-commentary-by-mark-vakkur-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15053prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (50-53):Product Review:MetaStock Professional"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders looking for a complete real-time product in a\nsingle package to help them make trading decisions\nshould look at MetaStock Professional 7.0. It offers features for screening securities, building custom\nindicators, analyzing real-time and end-of-day charts,inserting indicators and line studies, developing expert commentaries and integrating with the\nInternet."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-50-53-product-review-metastock-professional-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-50-53-product-review-metastock-professional-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-50-53-product-review-metastock-professional-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15455quicsc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (54-55):Quick Scan:TeachMeToTrade.com"",""caption-linebreaks"":""When Maverick Trading began its\ndaytrading operations about three years\nago,it became readily apparent that the\nfirst several months of trading were the\nmost difficult for its clients. It took the\nnovice traders that long to understand\nhow the markets,the market makers,\nthe order executions,and the electronic\ncommunications networks (ECNs)\nworked.In addition,they noted,there\nwas a fairly steep learning curve about\nthe technical analysis aspect of the market charts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-54-55-quick-scan-teachmetotrade-com-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-54-55-quick-scan-teachmetotrade-com-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-54-55-quick-scan-teachmetotrade-com-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15661thehig,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (56-61):The Highs And Lows Of Trading by Edward Robert Florez"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Highs\nAnd Lows\nOf Trading by Edward Robert Florez
\nHere’s a war story that illustrates some mistakes\nthat all traders have made at one time or another\n— and should keep in mind..
The best-laid plans and\nanalysis can become catastrophically skewed when\nconditions change and you do not\nlessen your risk. Back in 1980,\nduring President Jimmy Carter’s last\nyear in office, speculation was\nrampant that interest rates would\nhave to go down in order to benefit\nthe President’s reelection campaign. By then, interest rates had already had a dramatic and\nunprecedented rise.
A year or so before the November 1980 election,in an\nevent referred to as \""the Saturday night massacre,\"" Federal\nReserve chairman Paul Volcker raised the discount rate by\ntwo percent points over a weekend. He also ordered massive\nintervention in the foreign exchange market in support of the\ndollar, and effectively adopted monetarism as policy by\nwhich the Fed would manage the money supply and hence the\neconomy. This sent shock waves through the international\nmonetary system and ushered in a new era of trading. It is the\nfoundation upon which a great deal of today’s speculative\ntrading is still focused.
As it turned out, interest rates didn’t top out for another\nyear and a half. But by January 1980, interest rates were high\nenough to convince a number of traders that they were bound\nto change direction."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-56-61-the-highs-and-lows-of-trading-by-edward-robert-florez-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-56-61-the-highs-and-lows-of-trading-by-edward-robert-florez-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-56-61-the-highs-and-lows-of-trading-by-edward-robert-florez-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16466prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (64-66):Product Review:ProphetStation"",""caption-linebreaks"":""If I could use only one word to describe ProphetStation, that word would have to be “simple.” If you need your\ntrading decisions to be simple and direct and you need real-\ntime market information, this product just might meet your requirements. Take a look and see if you don’t agree.
INSTALLATION AND SETUP\nFirst of all, a visit to the Prophet Financial Systems Website will provide you with all the information you need to begin, including a download of ProphetStation, a procedure that only takes a few minutes. While you ’re at it, you can also take advantage of the 30-day free trial for delayed data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-64-66-product-review-prophetstation-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-64-66-product-review-prophetstation-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-64-66-product-review-prophetstation-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16884inhers,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (68-84):Interview: Hersh Shefrin On Behavioral Finance"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Biases Of Traders\nHersh Shefrin\nOn Behavioral\nFinance
Technicians became interested in behavioral finance because it could explain\nbehaviors that previously they had tried to capture in the forms of charts,\nindicators, and trading rules. Academic studies rigorously defined anecdotal\nphenomena that technicians had tried to capture using empirical tools, with\nvarying success. In addition, it helped that the behavioralists challenged the\nefficient markets hypothesis anathema to technicians.
Hersh Shefrin was in the field of behaviorial finance from the beginning\nwhen he and economist Richard Thaler first applied behavioral ideas to\neconomics while both were teaching at the University of Rochester in the late\n1970s. Later, Shefrin and Meir Statman took the same ideas to the field of\nfinance at Santa Clara University in the early 1980s. Amplifying and confirming work by many other researchers has brought behavioral finance to the\npoint where it is now the main contender to modify the efficient markets hypothesis. Summarizing for practitioners such results with examples and research, Shefrin\nexplains, was the purpose of writing Beyond Greed And Fear, his latest book, available from Harvard Business School Press.
Hersh Shefrin is the Mario Belotti Professor of Finance at the Leavey School of\nBusiness, Santa Clara University. His research is in the application of behavioral\ndecision making to finance and economics, an area in which he has worked since\n1975. STOCKS &COMMODITIES spoke with Shefrin on January 3, 2000, to find out\nfirsthand how the field’s work affects technical analysts in their day-to-day work."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-68-84-interview-hersh-shefrin-on-behavioral-finance-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-68-84-interview-hersh-shefrin-on-behavioral-finance-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-68-84-interview-hersh-shefrin-on-behavioral-finance-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v183815letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (8-15):Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Tell us\nabout it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine\nwould not exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave. SW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@traders.com. Letter-writers must\ninclude their full name and address for verification. Letters may be edited for length or\nclarity. All letters become the property of Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nThe Traders’ Magazine. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily represent\nthose of the magazine. —Editor
VOLATILITY IS KEY
Editor,
One of the joys of having created an\nanalytical approach such as Bollinger\nBands is seeing what others do with it.\nThus, it was with pleasure that I read\nStéphane Reverre’s \""Are Two Channels Better Than One?\"" in the January\n2000 issue of Technical Analysis of\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES, The Traders’\nMagazine. Reverre, using relatively\nshort and narrow Bollinger Bands,\nlooked at what is essentially a volatility\nbreakout system. This reminds me of\nthe late Bruce Babcock, publisher of\nCommodity Consumer Traders Report, who, after exhaustive research into trading systems, concluded that his favorite\napproach was the volatility breakout.
It is interesting how the same ideas\nresurface again and again. I remain convinced that volatility is the central issue\nin investing.Recent academic research\nsuggests that while price is neither cyclical nor forecastable, volatility is both.\nMaybe they are on to something!
JOHN BOLLINGER, via E-mail
www.BollingerBands.com
Thanks for writing, John. —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-8-15-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-8-15-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-8-15-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v186879495us,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (86-87,94-95):Use The CBOE’s Options Analysis Calculator -- Gratis by Rudy Teseo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Use The CBOE’s Options\nAnalysis Calculator — Gratis by Rudy Teseo
Here’s how to use the free option calculator offered by the Chicago Board Options Exchange to set up your positions.
Option strategy diagrams are the standards used in the\nindustry to represent the curves developed in the\nBlack-Scholes †options model. The Black-Scholes\nmodel is actually a mathematical formula that was\ndeveloped in the early 1970s for calculating a fair\noption price, and it is still the accepted standard used today. You can get an excellent model of these computations, free\nof charge, on a compact disc from the Chicago Board Options\nExchange (CBOE). This CD also contains a complete course in\noptions trading.
In the CBOE model, you enter the required variables (current stock price, strike price, time to expiration, implied\nvolatility, and current risk-free interest rate), and the model then\npresents a graphic display of the strategy that allows you to theorize\nby changing the variables.
Here’s how to use this little treasure.
1 Think about having to memorize all those option definitions,\nand then see if a simple diagram couldn’t tell you the same thing\nin a single glance. Cost/profit curves display the relationship between the price of the option (the premium paid or received) and\nthe price of the underlying security (Figure 1). You can readily\nvisualize the option price increasing and decreasing in value as the\nsecurity price increases and decreases, respectively. You can also\ntell at a glance the risk/reward potential of this strategy."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-86-87-94-95-use-the-cboe-s-options-analysis-calculator-gratis-by-rudy-teseo-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-86-87-94-95-use-the-cboe-s-options-analysis-calculator-gratis-by-rudy-teseo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-86-87-94-95-use-the-cboe-s-options-analysis-calculator-gratis-by-rudy-teseo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18992tradti,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap3mar20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (89-92):Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here is this month’s selection of Traders’Tips, contributed\nby various developers of technical analysis software to help\nreaders more easily implement some of the strategies presented. Internet users will also find these and some previous\nTraders’ Tips on our home page at http://www.Traders.com.
OMEGA RESEARCH EASYLANGUAGE
In this month’s EasyLanguage tip, I’ll focus on the article\n\""Pivot Points\"" by Jayanthi Gopalakrishan, which was\npublished in the February 2000 STOCKS &COMMODITIES.\nHere, I’ll present an EasyLanguage function and two\nEasyLanguage indicators to calculate and plot the variations\nof the pivot point values. First, I have written a user function,\nwhich allows you to calculate the pivot point value using any\nof the three methods described in the article. Next, I have\ncreated two indicators for plotting the related pivot point\nvalues.
The name of the user function is PivotPoint. This user\nfunction will calculate the pivot point values. It will also\nallow the user to easily specify the method that will be used\nto calculate the pivot points. The \""method\"" input is used to\ndetermine how the pivot points will be calculated (1=\ntraditional;2 =variation 1;3 =variation 2). The EasyLanguage\nfor the user function is thus:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-89-92-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-89-92-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-89-92-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v199101prodr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:3 (99-101):Product Review:Portfolio Evaluator 2000"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading systems that enjoy\nsuccess are those that have\nbeen tested from different\nperspectives and selected\nbased on consistent results. For those who create systems in\nTradeStation, Portfolio Evaluator 2000\nis add-on software that can help you do\njust that. It goes beyond the strategy\nperformance report generated by\nTradeStation by including additional\nmetrics, making it a complete backtesting\nand evaluation product. The new and\nimproved version is fully integrated with\nTradeStation 2000 i and TradeStation 4.0. The package includes a CD-ROM,a user’s manual, and a portfolio analysis and money management video workshop along with accompanying text."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-99-101-product-review-portfolio-evaluator-2000-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-99-101-product-review-portfolio-evaluator-2000-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-3-99-101-product-review-portfolio-evaluator-2000-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v110tradresc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (100-105): Traders’ Resource: Courses and Seminars"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Courses And Seminars
They say that the more you learn, the more\nyou know you need to learn. This is true in\ntrading. If you’re not fully prepared when\nyou go to trade, you’ll be the one that the\nsmart money profits from.
Education is crucial in trading. If you’re\nnot fully prepared to trade the markets,\nyou might as well be gambling — with\nthe odds on the house’s side. But help is available.
Readers often ask us how they can further their knowledge\nand skills in trading (that is, in addition to reading STOCKS & COMMODITIES!). Some readers write us asking for certification programs, some want a schedule of upcoming seminars and\nconferences, and others seek personalized counsel or tutoring. Well, here it is - your resource for current and upcoming\ncourses and seminars. It’s this month’s Traders’ Resource.."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-100-105-traders-resource-courses-and-seminars-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-100-105-traders-resource-courses-and-seminars-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-100-105-traders-resource-courses-and-seminars-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12026ramtra,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (20-26):Ram Trading by Lorne W. Rae"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Ram Trading by Lorne W. Rae
With this simple daytrading method using candlestick formations and the opening action, this author\ndemonstrates a high-probability, low-risk trading strategy that gets you in\nand out in a single day.
Just as the battering ram\nhad a single purpose in\nthe earliest wars —\nnamely, punching a hole\nin a barred city gate —\nwhat I refer to as the Ram\ntrading method is focused on a singular goal: to identify and implement\nlow-risk trades that make money.
To a trader, time is all-important. For stock traders,\nthe shorter the time interval between buys and sells,\nthe less likely it is that something will go wrong. Ram\ntrading minimizes this risk by concentrating on the\nshortest of trading time units — a fraction of a trading\nday. For consistency’s sake, the terminology in this\nanalysis assumes that \""right now\"" is just prior to\ntoday’s opening of trade.
STOCKPICKING
Candlestick analysis is one technique that concentrates on short-term price movement. It is an excellent method for determining today’s likely price\ntrend. There is extensive literature about candlesticks, and there are software packages to do the\ncharting. Candlesticks are simple to use, and all a\ntrader needs are three or so days of prior price action\nto produce proper results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-20-26-ram-trading-by-lorne-w-rae-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-20-26-ram-trading-by-lorne-w-rae-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-20-26-ram-trading-by-lorne-w-rae-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12834repbyz,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (28-34):Replicharts by Zack Hill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Chart Patterns That Repeat
Replicharts by Zack Hill
Certain chart formations can forecast major trading activity. Take a look.
Answer me this. If we can accept\nthat established patterns occur\nin cloud formations, crowd psychology, and criminal behavior, why can’t we also accept\nthat stock charts have patterns\nthat repeat with similar reliability? Since stock charts display\nthe buying and selling of a\ncrowd, why not assume that reactions to certain events would\nbe quite predictable, just as they are in our everyday lives?
Here’s an example. My wife and her mother went shopping\none morning recently. They pulled into the parking lot and\nimmediately noticed two things: First, they saw that the store\nhadn’t opened yet. Second,they observed that there was\nalready a crowd waiting for the store to open. This was\nunusual, so, curious, they joined the crowd and waited,\nsensing something really good must have been advertised\nthat they weren’t aware of. Asking no questions (for fear of\nappearing to be out of the loop), the two followed the other\nshoppers when the store finally opened, to a big display of a specially marked item. Within 10 minutes, the item had sold\nout completely, including the one that my wife bought,\nthanks to those patient early shoppers!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-28-34-replicharts-by-zack-hill-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-28-34-replicharts-by-zack-hill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-28-34-replicharts-by-zack-hill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13641howtou,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (36-41):How To Use Tick, Tiki, TRIN For Day Trading by Terry O’Brian"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How To Use Tick, Tiki, TRIN\nFor Daytrading by Terry O ’Brian
These three indicators can be important guides in implementing trading strategies. Could they help you?
The tick, the tiki, and the trading index (TRIN) — indicators that are for the\nmost part unknown outside trading\ncircles — can be important guides in\nimplementing trading strategies. All\nother indicators are derived from these\nthree; more important, they’re easy to\nuse and interpret. Critical to the use and understanding of any indicator, but especially in regard to\nthese three, is the context in which we use them and the\nquestions we want them to answer.
The tick, the tiki, and the TRIN measure what I refer to as\nthe pressure or the flow of trades in and out of the market. The tick and the tiki are essentially indicators made up of subtractions, while the TRIN is essentially a calculator. The tick\ncovers all stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE),\nas does the TRIN, while the tiki measures only the Dow 30\nstocks. Neither the tick nor the tiki utilize volume in their\ncalculations, but the TRIN does. Finally, each indicator has\nimportant and distinct characteristics.
TICK
The tick (Figure 1)is derived by subtracting the number of\nstocks heading down from the number of those heading up. It\nis an excellent intraday guide as to where the market is\nheading in any given time frame. As a rule of thumb, a tick\nmovement above zero and going up supports a long position;\nbelow zero and falling supports a short. Typically, the tick\nindicator has a range between +600 and -600. The upper,\npositive range indicates buying pressure; the lower, negative\nrange indicates selling pressure. At its extremes, the tick\nbecomes a contrarian indicator. For example, a +1,000-tick\nmovement, difficult to sustain for any period, is a clue to go\nshort; buying power is running out. Conversely, a -1,000-tick\nmovement may signal a long position and is almost always\ngood for a quick scalp. Most quote services provide the tick\non an intraday and end-of-day basis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-36-41-how-to-use-tick-tiki-trin-for-day-trading-by-terry-o-brian-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-36-41-how-to-use-tick-tiki-trin-for-day-trading-by-terry-o-brian-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-36-41-how-to-use-tick-tiki-trin-for-day-trading-by-terry-o-brian-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14250kagcha,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (42-50):Kagi Charts by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Kagi Charts by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
If you’ve ever seen a reference to this particular form of\ncandlestick charting and wondered what they were, you can\nfind out here.
The financial markets exist because of the complementary\nrelationship between bulls and\nbears -- one cannot exist without the other. The key is to\nrecognize which has control\nof the markets and identify\nwhen that control changes.\nOne way to do this is through\nkagi charts.
Kagi charts, which have\nalso been known as key charts,price range charts, hook\ncharts, delta charts, and string charts, originated in Japan in\nthe 1870s about the same time as the more popular candlestick charts. The only variable that is considered in kagi\ncharts is the closing price, and the indication of bullish/bearish markets is determined by the thickness of the lines.
Initially, when I first began\nto work with it, I found the\nkagi chart’s unfamiliar display confusing. I found it difficult to determine what the\nclosing prices were and\nwhether the specific security\nwas trending or in a trading\nrange. But the ambiguity intrigued me, encouraging me\nto explore this type of chart\nfurther. That led me to discover that kagi charts were an\ninteresting method by which\nto identify trends, support/resistance levels, and reversals.
Although there are software\npackages that will automatically display kagi charts, I will\nexplain the process of creating these charts so that it is\neasier to understand them and\nto make trading decisions using them. One thing to keep in\nmind is that kagi charts are\neffective in trending markets;\nthis is because they do not\nidentify peaks and troughs."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-42-50-kagi-charts-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-42-50-kagi-charts-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-42-50-kagi-charts-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15261aryour,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (52-61):Are Your Profits Robust? by Steve Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are Your Profits Robust? by Steve Notis
Your trading system probably has a set of parameters you\nthink are the most profitable. But is it the most consistent?\nHere’s a technique to find the most robust set that will give you regular profits.
For those who use trading systems, the most important concern should not be to find parameters that yield the greatest\nprofit; rather, it should be to\nfind the most robust parameters. Anyone can tweak a system until it shows startling results, but unless those parameters are robust, they will not\nhold up in real-world trading.
Several testing methods can be used to increase a system’s\nrobustness. The first, and simplest, is to test over long periods. This assures that the test includes a variety of market conditions. The second method is the walk-forward, or blind, data\ntest. This typically consists of optimizing trading parameters\nover a long period, but stopping short of the present. Finally, the best parameters are tested over the remaining, nonoptimized, data. This is also referred to as walk-forward, blind, virgin, out-of-sample, and it has even been\nreferred to as real-time testing.
If the optimized parameters\nwork well over the blind data,\nthen it can be argued that the parameters are robust and likely to\ncontinue to work for some time\ninto the future. Since the final test\nis run without the benefit of hindsight or optimization, it’s as close\nto real trading as you can simulate\nwith historical data. However,\ndon’t assume that the most profitable parameters are the best parameters - meaning those that\nwill be the most profitable in the\nfuture."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-52-61-are-your-profits-robust-by-steve-notis-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-52-61-are-your-profits-robust-by-steve-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-52-61-are-your-profits-robust-by-steve-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16268picout,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (62-68):Picking Out Your Trading Trend by Martin J.Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pick Out Your\nTrading Trend by Martin J.Pring
There are three kinds of trends: short, intermediate, and long\nterm. This veteran trader and analyst explains how you can\nspot them and use them.
Technical analysis assumes that all\nthe knowledge, hopes, and fears of\nboth active and inactive market\nparticipants are reflected in one\nthing: the price. Even if I am in a\ncash position, I am still influencing the price because it would be\nhigher if my cash were invested.\nThus, prices are determined by\npsychology. This would just be an interesting observation,\nexcept that psychology moves in trends,and so do prices.
Most of the technical tools we use are aimed at identifying\ntrend reversals at an early stage. We ride on trends until the\nweight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has\nreversed — in this case, the number of reliable technical\nindicators all pointing in\nthe same direction.\nHence, the greater the\nnumber of indicators signaling a reversal, the\ngreater the probability\nthat a reversal will take\nplace. It is important to\nremember that technical\nanalysis only deals in\nprobabilities, never certainties. Unfortunately,\nthere is no known method\nof forecasting the duration and magnitude of a\ntrend with any degree of\nconsistency. Identifying\nreversals is hard enough."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-62-68-picking-out-your-trading-trend-by-martin-j-pring-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-62-68-picking-out-your-trading-trend-by-martin-j-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-62-68-picking-out-your-trading-trend-by-martin-j-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v169quicscan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (69):Quick Scan:John Murphy Explains Market Analysis,Volume 2:Intermarket Analysis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""John Murphy and Greg Morris teamed\nup in 1996 as MurphyMorris,Inc.,focusing on providing educational products and services for investors. Soon\nthereafter,the team produced John\nMurphy Explains Market Analysis,\nVolume 1 ,a CD-ROM that only began to explain the broad topic at hand,starting with the topic of visual analysis. With volume 2, MurphyMorris presents a topic that\nshould be a familiar one to Murphy\nproponents:intermarket analysis,\npresented with CNBC business anchor\nTed David."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-69-quick-scan-john-murphy-explains-market-analysis-volume-2-intermarket-analysis-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-69-quick-scan-john-murphy-explains-market-analysis-volume-2-intermarket-analysis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-69-quick-scan-john-murphy-explains-market-analysis-volume-2-intermarket-analysis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17073prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (70-73):Product Review:Option Wizard Online 2000"",""caption-linebreaks"":""To be able to view a complete and meaningful option analysis in an Excel spreadsheet is intriguing\nboth in terms of the analysis as well as exploring the capabilities of Excel. Option Wizard helps traders\nmake better trading decisions by studying implied and historical volatilities,percent to double, delta, in-the-money probabilities,and several other factors that\nlend themselves to making better option trading decisions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-70-73-product-review-option-wizard-online-2000-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-70-73-product-review-option-wizard-online-2000-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-70-73-product-review-option-wizard-online-2000-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v174intecwal,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (74-87): Interview: Technician Walter Deemer by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Grand Old Man\nTechnician\nWalter Deemer
Walt Deemer began his Wall Street career in 1963 as a Merrill Lynch\nresearch trainee. Since then, he has seen the ebb and flow of Wall Street\nthrough booms and busts, spending time with the Manhattan Fund in the mid-1960s — arguably the best\nknown of the Go-Go funds of the period — and\nwith Putnam Management along the way, managing to be one of the founding\nmembers of the Market Technicians Association (MTA)in the early 1970s\nbefore forming Deemer Technical Research in 1980, offering market strategies and insights to institutional clients on a consulting basis.
He has appeared on the Nightly Business Report and Wall $treet Week\ntelevision programs. He is the featured technical analyst in Dean LeBaron’s\nbook The Ultimate Investor: The People And Ideas That Make Modern\nInvestment, joining such well-known financial professionals as John Bogle, Peter Lynch, and George Soros. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Interim Editor\nJohn Sweeney spoke with Deemer on January 19, 2000, via telephone."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-74-87-interview-technician-walter-deemer-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-74-87-interview-technician-walter-deemer-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-74-87-interview-technician-walter-deemer-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v184816letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (8-16):Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Tell us\nabout it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine\nwould not exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@traders.com. Letter-writers must\ninclude their full name and address for verification. Letters may be edited for length or\nclarity. All letters become the property of Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES,\nThe Traders’ Magazine. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily represent\nthose of the magazine. —Editor
AFTER-HOURS TRADING
Editor,
As a long-time reader and\nrecent subscriber, I wish\nto compliment you on\nyour magazine. I look\nforward to receiving it\neach month in my quest\nto improve my current methods and\nlearn new ones.
Perhaps you might consider answering this question: With the advent of\nafter-hours and overseas trading, I am\nconcerned that current technical analysis techniques that depend on opening\nand closing prices will become obsolete\nor ineffective. I am having success with\nvolatility breakouts (based on average\ntrue range) and candlestick patterns,\nboth of which require opening and closing prices, combined with traditional\ntechnical analysis. A stock may be up\none point today based on yesterday’s\nclose but down three from overseas\ntrading. Which will become the true\nmeasure of today’s change?
Thanks again. You don’t have to\nchange STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine at all to keep me happy.
RICK PATTON, via E-mail
Most traders will use the open and close\nof the highest-volume market as the best\nindicator. For a US investor, that might\nbe overseas! —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-8-16-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-8-16-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-8-16-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18889quicsc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (88-89):Quick Scan:myTrack ’s Brokerage Services Module,myTrade"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The first thing I noticed about myTrack?\nIt’s fast. Order execution times for market orders placed in my live myTrade\naccount were less than a second. With\nthe myTrade screen, I knew exactly\nwhat was going on and when my trades\nwent through. The myTrade product moves trades\nto whichever electronic communications\nnetworks (ECNs) and market makers that can accomplish the trade the quickest at the best price. Track Data has a\ndedicated line to several ECNs and market makers to make trades as fast as\npossible for their customers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-88-89-quick-scan-mytrack-s-brokerage-services-module-mytrade-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-88-89-quick-scan-mytrack-s-brokerage-services-module-mytrade-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-88-89-quick-scan-mytrack-s-brokerage-services-module-mytrade-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v190tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap4ap20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (90-92): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed\nby various developers of technical analysis software to help\nreaders more easily implement some of the strategies presented. Internet users will also find these and some previous\nTraders’ Tips on our home page at http://www.Traders.com.
METASTOCK
MetaStock’s Expert Advisor, in version 6.5 or higher, is a\ncollection of powerful tools that keep you informed of the\ncurrent technical state of a chart. When attached to a chart, an\nExpert keeps you informed of the state of these conditions by\nvarious methods:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-90-92-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-90-92-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-90-92-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19394quicsc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (93-94):Quick Scan:Tick Data"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Since its inception in the early 1980s,\nTick Data has provided futures and options traders with historical data from a wide selection of US futures and indices markets. Ownership of the company has\nchanged hands several times,with the current owner being Thomas Neal Falkenberry, a futures trader and hedge fund manager. Since purchasing the company in June\n1999 to serve as the data platform for his fund, Falkenberry has developed a clear mission for Tick Data:\nto provide the cleanest intraday data\navailable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-93-94-quick-scan-tick-data-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-93-94-quick-scan-tick-data-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-93-94-quick-scan-tick-data-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19496prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:4 (94-96):Product Review:AIQ OptionExpert"",""caption-linebreaks"":""IQ,long known for its screening, trading, and artificial intelligence capabilities, has extended itself into options analysis, but not simply with an extension of its old strengths. Instead, AIQ OptionExpert uses the MyTrack/TrackData services of AIQ’s parent, Track Data Corp., to provide real-time options analysis and screening at a spectacularly low price.
That’s not to say AIQ could resist the temptation to throw a little intelligence into the program. In OptionExpert, all you do to find trades is enter the underlying symbol and click “Find Positions.” The program handles all the work of\ngenerating symbols, downloading their pricing over the Internet,and running the computations for profitability and\nprobability. You just get the buy and sell order."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-94-96-product-review-aiq-optionexpert-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-94-96-product-review-aiq-optionexpert-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-4-94-96-product-review-aiq-optionexpert-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1102105trad,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (102-105):Traders' Resources: Exchanges"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Exchanges
\nWith the explosion of exchanges around the world and the increasing poaching of products between\nexchanges, traders should be aware of all the places where trading opportunities occur. No longer bound\nby national borders or even physical locations, exchanges can be no more than a box in the corner\nof an office. Differentiation comes in the form of product,\nvolume, speed, pricing, and investor protections.
Look for an exchange with extensive trade documentation so that disputes can be resolved quickly and with quick reference to events. Since more and more alternatives are rapidly becoming available, donÕt be afraid to direct your business to the exchange of your choice. The plethora of investor choice is forcing a rapid decline in transaction costs already, and exchange monopolies are a thing of the past.
Use the listing presented here to find the Websites of the exchanges handling your tradable, then go to the site to get the specifics of the trading vehicle. Better yet, get several equivalent products at several exchanges and be sure your broker can direct your business to the venue of your choice."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-102-105-traders-resources-exchanges-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-102-105-traders-resources-exchanges-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-102-105-traders-resources-exchanges-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v11827adtren,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (18-27):Adaptive Trends And Oscillators by John F.Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Adaptive Trends And Oscillators The Twain Meets Here
by John F. Ehlers
Can the market be modeled as a combination\nof a trend mode and a cycle mode? This longtime S&C contributor says yes. Here, he explores two indicators to trade each mode; one is the new, adaptive version of\nan indicator originally introduced in 1996, and it does well in trading ranges but steps aside in trends. With this new version, you can address both modes of the market without interfering with the other Ñand that Õs something that traders have been waiting for."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-18-27-adaptive-trends-and-oscillators-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-18-27-adaptive-trends-and-oscillators-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-18-27-adaptive-trends-and-oscillators-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v128quicscan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (28):Quick Scan:Opti-Calc"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Opti-Calc,the latest version of J&E\nResearch ’s option pricing and analysis\nsystem, was designed for the many\nsmaller firms,independent traders,and\nstudents unable to afford the much more\nexpensive options products. This Excel\nadd-in calculates prices, risk parameters,and implied volatilities using several different models used worldwide\nby traders, and is trusted by the exchanges to officially settle pricing disputes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-28-quick-scan-opti-calc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-28-quick-scan-opti-calc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-28-quick-scan-opti-calc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13036peakan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (30-36):Peaks And Troughs by Martin J.Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Peaks And Troughs
by Martin J.Pring
The oldest ways of chart analysis had to work in the days before computers (B.C.).There Õs no reason they shouldnÕt work now. HereÕs a look at peaks and troughs, a classic form of chart analysis that worked B.C. and work now.
I have always thought that, in general, the simplest techniques work the best. High up in this category, and perhaps the most underrated, is the concept of peak and trough analysis, a technique first brought to\nour attention as a tenet of Dow theory. While the theory itself has lost much of its luster in recent years, the peak and trough part of it has not. It is arguably the most important building block of technical analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-30-36-peaks-and-troughs-by-martin-j-pring-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-30-36-peaks-and-troughs-by-martin-j-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-30-36-peaks-and-troughs-by-martin-j-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13846desmon,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (38-46):Designing A Money Management Strategy by Ray Overholser,O.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Designing A Money Management Strategy Using Volatility-Based Stops And The Kelly Criterion
by Ray Overholser,O.D.
Sorting out the criteria for a coherent money management plan is a complex, detailed job. Using a spreadsheet to keep track of the logic helps ensure nothing has been omitted.
With a little planning, you can develop a logically sound money management system. Historically, too much emphasis has been placed on the development of\nprofitable entry and exit rules, whereas the determination of the proper number of contracts or\nshares to trade has been treated as a distant afterthought.
An individualized money management algorithm (using a spreadsheet program such as Microsoft Excel) will control the equity growth of any positive-expectancy system as a direct function of using correct position sizing. Risking too large a portion of trading capital per position will eventually cause even the most profitable trading system to fail."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-38-46-designing-a-money-management-strategy-by-ray-overholser-o-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-38-46-designing-a-money-management-strategy-by-ray-overholser-o-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-38-46-designing-a-money-management-strategy-by-ray-overholser-o-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14852shouli,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (48-52):Should I Trade Today? by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Should I Trade Today?
by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
If youÕre not at your best when youÕre trading the markets, youÕre putting yourself at a disadvantage. Make sure youÕre up to the challenge.
Should I trade today? If you answered this question honestly every day and traded only on your peak performance days, your annual gross income would probably exceed anything you have ever produced. This is, of course, assuming that you have and are following a good trading plan. The chances are that most of you do not want to ask this question of yourself because you will trade regardless of the answer.
The objective of this question and answer is to minimize your risk and maximize your potential for taking successful action. The way to accomplish this is to follow your trading system faithfully, which should require that you trade only when you are in a peak state of physical and emotional readiness."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-48-52-should-i-trade-today-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-48-52-should-i-trade-today-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-48-52-should-i-trade-today-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15457hasvol,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (54-57):Has Volatility Lost Its Edge? by Mark G. Levey"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Has Volatility Lost Its Edge?
by Mark G.Levey
Does volatility still offer the same advantage it once did in trading the Standard &PoorÕs 500 index? HereÕs a followup to previous STOCKS & COMMODITIES articles.
From a statistical standpoint, assuming an even chance of loss or gain on an investment, low-volatility investments offer significantly higher returns than\ndo high-volatility strategies. A low-volatility trading system beats a high-volatility system 70% to\n80% of the time when given the same sequence of trading results. In winning systems, however, game theory shows that once the probability of winning exceeds 56%, high-volatility strategies prevail.
In reality, markets do not operate strictly according to\nrandom walk theory. Since World War II, average values of stocks and bonds have appreciated overall, making the outcome of long trades over time a better than even bet. In the December 1998 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Dick Stoken reviewed the outcomes of five trading strategies for assets of varying volatility during the period encompassing 1952 Ð94."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-54-57-has-volatility-lost-its-edge-by-mark-g-levey-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-54-57-has-volatility-lost-its-edge-by-mark-g-levey-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-54-57-has-volatility-lost-its-edge-by-mark-g-levey-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16065speedr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (60-65):Speed Resistance Lines by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Speed Resistance Lines
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
Need to determine support and resistance? Try this.
It is not unusual to come across situations in which you see a market trending and think it may be too late to get in. To check, you wait for a pullback to determine if that might be a good entry point. But is this pullback a correction or a trend reversal?
Determining whether a trend is going to continue or\nreverse is critical to a trader. Speed resistance lines, which were developed by technician Edson Gould, can help determine whether the market is correcting itself or a trend will reverse.These lines measure the speed of a trend by measuring the rate of ascent or descent. They are similar to Fibonacci fan lines, and you may have heard them also being referred to as one-third or two-thirds lines. Speed resistance lines are a hybrid of simple trendlines and Fibonacci retracement levels,\nand they are helpful in creating support and resistance levels."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-60-65-speed-resistance-lines-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-60-65-speed-resistance-lines-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-60-65-speed-resistance-lines-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16676inmata,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (66-76):Interview: Matthew Andresen Of Island ECN by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Faster, Cheaper, Better? Matthew Andresen Of Island ECN
Matthew Andresen has been serving as president of Island ECN , Inc., since 1998. Since then, Andresen has spearheaded IslandÕs explosive growth and overseen its role in shaping the new electronic marketplace. His strategic mission at Island is to provide all market participants with the ability to execute transactions on a level playing field. That has meant\nbuilding Island into the first marketplace to provide a free, real-time display of all its orders through the Island BookViewer, software that allows orders received by Island for display on the limit-order book to be immediately visible to anyone with a Web-based browser. With this, investors have unprecedented access into the marketplace.
Under AndresenÕs leadership, Island has become the fastest, most efficient, and lowest-cost forum for trading equity securities. In 1999, IslandÕs trading volume was over 26.5 billion shares, with a total dollar volume of $1.56 trillion. On an average day, Island trades approximately 200 million shares Ð accounting for\napproximately 12% of NasdaqÕs volume. Andresen has also overseen IslandÕs extended-hours trading session, which has given the investor greater flexibility\nand access to the financial marketplace.
On June 28, 1999, Andresen launched Island upon one of its most significant challenges Ð filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to become the\nfirst for-profit stock exchange in the US. With this, Andresen committed Island to delivering speed, efficiency, and prices to the market for NYSE-listed stocks.\nAndresen was interviewed via telephone on February 17, 2000."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-66-76-interview-matthew-andresen-of-island-ecn-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-66-76-interview-matthew-andresen-of-island-ecn-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-66-76-interview-matthew-andresen-of-island-ecn-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17879prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (78-79):Product Review:Forex Trader"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interested in foreign exchange trading? Here’s a product that lets you practice currency trading without risking a penny in the actual market. Forex Trader is a simulation program that helps you get a feel for the highly liquid market in which an average of $1 trillion is traded everyday."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-78-79-product-review-forex-trader-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-78-79-product-review-forex-trader-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-78-79-product-review-forex-trader-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1817lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (8-17 ):Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects relating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication with our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Tell us about it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine\nwould not exist.
\nEditor,
The letter to the Editor in your February 2000 issue\ntitled \""Candlesticks Formulas\"" and your response\nhit the nail on the head of what your magazine is all about - giving your readers trading ideas to develop on their own. You then asked other readers to\nshare their tips. But then, later in that section, when reader Dwight Cook does exactly that in the letter titled \""Backtest Results,\"" your response seems to have\ncompletely missed the point. His system\nof using a simple moving average crossover to trade mutual funds worked great in his backtest. All you had to do was backtest it against the same sample of\ndata that Jay Kaeppel used in his study to find out if it was comparable. I think what Dwight really wanted to know was whether his system works better than\nKaeppel's in the same sample period (at least, that's what I wanted to know).
Next, I agree that backtesting is indeed an area with no easy answers. I often find that if a system is optimized\nin a backtest and then forward-tested on new data, the results are very revealing. A forward-test cannot be curve-fitted, and a good system should hold up with\na hit rate and percent return that is close to the backtested figures.
I hope this is helpful to your readers.
TODD COLBECK,via E-mail\nWhale Securities\nNew York,NY"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-8-17-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-8-17-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-8-17-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18083prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (80-83):Product Review:Pattern Forecaster Plus"",""caption-linebreaks"":""In late 1997, Brad Matheny formed Matheny Enterprises and began the development of his new software package, Pattern\nForecaster Plus (PFP). PFP was adapted from another popular trading system program called The Candlestick Forecaster, of which Matheny was codeveloper (and which has won numerous Readers' Choice Awards from STOCKS &COMMODITIES over the\nyears). Since its release in January 1998, Pattern Forecaster Plus has been through five or six upgrades. The software is directed toward individual and\nprofessional end-of-day traders who\nare interested in candlestick charting\nand trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-80-83-product-review-pattern-forecaster-plus-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-80-83-product-review-pattern-forecaster-plus-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-80-83-product-review-pattern-forecaster-plus-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18589loncom,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (85-89):Long-Term Commodity Trades by Andre Zupans"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Paper And Pencil, For Cotton\nLong-Term Commodity Trades
by Andre Zupans
Large commodity firms, commercial producers, and mature speculators know that capturing huge moves in commodity markets may take years. HereÕs that technique, demonstrated nicely.
If you believe the news media, short-term traders and daytraders are everywhere. Certainly, their numbers have exploded due to the unprecedented bull market in\nstocks. Are they consistently successful? Doubtful. Transaction costs, overtrading, and small profits and large losses plague these short-term traders. Long-term trading eliminates most of these problems, a good strategy is required in order to be a successful long-term trader. Discipline and patience is also a prerequisite for making money in any time frame, but especially for long-term trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-85-89-long-term-commodity-trades-by-andre-zupans-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-85-89-long-term-commodity-trades-by-andre-zupans-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-85-89-long-term-commodity-trades-by-andre-zupans-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19091111tra,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap5may20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (90-91,111):Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
Here is this month's selection of Traders' Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement\nsome of the strategies presented. Internet users will find these and some previous Traders' Tips on our home page at http://www.Traders.com.
METASTOCK
Here is the code for use in MetaStock 6.52 or higher for the instantaneous trendline and sinewave indicator as described by John Ehlers in \""Adaptive Trends And Oscillators\"" in this issue. To implement them, the following formulas must be created in MetaStock's\nIndicator Builder. Each formula must be created separately and must be named exactly as it appears below. Only the last two formulas are plotted, so you may wish to prevent the others from being displayed in the Indicator QuickList by unchecking the \""Display In QuickList\"" option when creating the formula. These\nformulas can also be downloaded from http://www.equis.com/customer/support/formulas/."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-90-91-111-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-90-91-111-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-90-91-111-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19496prodre1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (94-96):Product Review:WindowOnWallStreet.com"",""caption-linebreaks"":""At the beginning, traders went\nthrough two decades of extensive trial and error to\ndevelop trading software. We can see a similar process taking place on the Web these days except it’s all happening in about two years! Case in point is WindowOnWallStreet.com, Omega\nResearch’s latest acquisition. Barely 60 days after the acquisition of the former by the latter, WindowOnWallStreet.com hit the streets. Where does it fit in the trader's panoply of tools? First, here’s what you get:\n•Charting\n•Nasdaq Level II\n•Time and sales displays\n•Quotes lists for stocks but not futures\n•Option chains\n•Market leaders\n•Streaming news\n•Internet search and links\n•Live ticker\n•Portfolio manager\n•Data reliability\n•Web access"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-94-96-product-review-windowonwallstreet-com-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-94-96-product-review-windowonwallstreet-com-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-94-96-product-review-windowonwallstreet-com-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v199101prodr1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:5 (99-101):Product Review:BioComp Profit 2000 Professional"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Neural networks. Genetic optimization. Stripping away the initial hype, you end up with products that actually help in trading. BioComp’s Profit 2000 Professional is one such survivor. Profit was created to relieve the tedium of data preprocessing and indicator building, and you can still\nget at this information if you want to, but Profit can do just about everything automatically, making your biggest\ncontribution the selection of the data fed to the system. The better the explanatory power of the data, the better\nProfit will do."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-99-101-product-review-biocomp-profit-2000-professional-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-99-101-product-review-biocomp-profit-2000-professional-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-5-99-101-product-review-biocomp-profit-2000-professional-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1100106trad,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (100-106):Traders' Resource: Publications"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Resource Publications
Where can traders turn for market insight, trade recommendations, and education about trading and investing? These days, financial information is\nput out in print, on TV, and over the Internet in various formats, but there's still nothing more readable, reliable, and researchable than a regularly published newsletter or magazine.
This month in Traders' Resource, we present a listing of publications - printed on paper, on the World Wide Web, or delivered straight to your E-mail inbox - that may help you to improve your trading. As you can see, some publications have been around for quite a while (in fact, this magazine has been published since 1982), and they can be well worth the asking price for the information they deliver."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-100-106-traders-resource-publications-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-100-106-traders-resource-publications-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-100-106-traders-resource-publications-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12032wardat,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (20-32):Warehousing Data For Better Trading Systems by Joseph M. Fisher, M.D.,Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Warehousing Data For Better Trading Systems
by Joseph M. Fisher, M.D., Ph.D.
Technically based trading systems are generally\nback-tested with tens to hundreds of entry signals. Here's a method to develop robust trading systems using more than 2.5 million signals by applying data warehousing technology.
In today's markets, the development and implementation of robust trading strategies is no\nsimple task. One way to do this is to develop a set of trading rules and then backtest them on a small number of stocks (less than 50), in the expectation that the system will perform similarly with the universe of securities that the system has yet to see. Some software products have been designed specifically for this approach - to test indicators, buy signals, and trading systems on one stock at a time and then tabulate the results for review. Unfortunately, many systems that look promising when tested on small numbers of stocks fail in real-world situations due to curve-fitting, insufficient sample sizes, the peculiarities of the time series under study, or a changing market environment. I'll look at a way to test entry signals and trading systems on 500 stocks simultaneously using a large relational database known as a data warehouse."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-20-32-warehousing-data-for-better-trading-systems-by-joseph-m-fisher-m-d-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-20-32-warehousing-data-for-better-trading-systems-by-joseph-m-fisher-m-d-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-20-32-warehousing-data-for-better-trading-systems-by-joseph-m-fisher-m-d-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13334quicsc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (33-34):Quick Scan:The Margin Account Calculator"",""caption-linebreaks"":""In 1996,Ian Brant was looking for a\nprogram that would allow him to track his\ntrades in the futures market.The few\nprograms he found available were either\nexpensive or incapable of all the functions\nhe thought such a program should exhibit.\nBecause he couldn’t find one,he created\none,and the result is the Margin Account\nCalculator (MAC).His previous experience with Microsoft Excel,combined with\nhis personal preference for the popular\nMicrosoft spreadsheet, made it the logical\nchoice for the platform."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-33-34-quick-scan-the-margin-account-calculator-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-33-34-quick-scan-the-margin-account-calculator-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-33-34-quick-scan-the-margin-account-calculator-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13641howtog,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (36-41):How To Get In With The Trend ... by Bryan Strain"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How To Get In With The Trend And Out At The End
by Bryan Strain
Need a simple trend-following system to get you right\nwith the market? Take a look at this.
\""Good indicators must have an easily explainable, fundamental reason for working,\"" trader and technician Don Fishback remarked once. \""If not, then the indicator is only a curve-fit whose performance just happens to be coincidental looking backward.\"" Generally, I have\nfound that the most successful traders are those\nwho don't pretend to be smarter than the market. They let the market tell them what and when to trade. The trend is your friend, after all.
The trading system I will discuss is an accumulation of some of the most effective methods and ideas I have come across. As a result, the system is not original, nor are the ideas behind it; but this is the first time that I have been able to determine that they have been brought together.
There is one more point I must clarify. Many technicians believe that technical analysis is the only necessary factor in making trading decisions. I beg to differ. Technical analysis is away of analyzing public opinion and market psychology by measuring price, volume, volatility, and so forth. Knowledge is power, and those who have the most of it always win at the end, no matter how strong the opponent. To acquire knowledge about the markets, you need to know everything you can about a specific company before you enter a trade; therefore,\nyou cannot ignore fundamental information. Before\nyou enter a trade, make sure the company has fundamentals that favor it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-36-41-how-to-get-in-with-the-trend-by-bryan-strain-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-36-41-how-to-get-in-with-the-trend-by-bryan-strain-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-36-41-how-to-get-in-with-the-trend-by-bryan-strain-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14249risman,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (42-49):Risk Management In The Real World by Ajay Jani"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Risk Management In The Real World
by Ajay Jani
An experienced trader takes his lumps in the market, but still comes out ahead. How? Prudent risk management.
In order to generate long-term investment success, traders must adhere to several time-honored trading principles. Bruce Babcock summed up these principles concisely in his Four Cardinal Principles Of Trading:
1 Trade with the trend.
2 Cut losses short.
3 Let profits run.
4 Manage risk.
\nNo trading methodology is 100% accurate. Thus, it is important not to place all of your capital at risk on any given idea. When an idea is correct, you must let it work as long as possible to generate the large returns necessary in order to offset the inevitable losing trades. Here are some real-life examples of both winning and losing trades, and how my risk management of these trades resulted in overall profitable trading, even though 50% of the trades resulted in losses."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-42-49-risk-management-in-the-real-world-by-ajay-jani-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-42-49-risk-management-in-the-real-world-by-ajay-jani-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-42-49-risk-management-in-the-real-world-by-ajay-jani-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15057detbal,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (50-57):Determining Balance Points In Crowd Psychology by Carl Gyllenram"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Determining Balance Points In Crowd Psychology
by Carl Gyllenram
Balance points, the pivotal points between the swings of the bulls and the bears, turn out to be excellent ways to determine market moods and to spot breakouts from a trading range.
People have banded together in groups since prehistoric times. Originally, it was necessary for\nthe survival of the individual to belong to a group, tribe, or herd. If you as a solitary hunter had tried to bring down a mammoth with a wooden spear, your chances of success or even survival would have been very slim. But if you had joined with others and cooperated toward that common goal, your chances of bringing down\nlarge animals and thus securing the survival of the tribe would have been greatly enhanced.
The desire among humans to belong to a group of likeminded individuals is as old as our existence.\nTo feel accepted in some sort of community contributes to a sense of security and well-being."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-50-57-determining-balance-points-in-crowd-psychology-by-carl-gyllenram-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-50-57-determining-balance-points-in-crowd-psychology-by-carl-gyllenram-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-50-57-determining-balance-points-in-crowd-psychology-by-carl-gyllenram-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16065ussimm1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (60-65):Using The Simple Moving Average by Martin J.Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using The\nSimple Moving\nAverage by Martin J.Pring
Moving averages are the mainstay of technical analysis, and\nat the heart of moving averages is the perennially useful\nsimple moving average. It can help smooth out random\nfluctuations in the financial markets, offering a better look at\nthe trend.
Technical analysts agree that prices\nmove in trends, and that once under way, trends tend to continue.\nHowever, a quick glance at any\nfreely traded financial market suggests that while trends do exist,\nthere is a substantial amount of\nrandom noise that makes identifying trend reversals a challenging\ntask. Moving averages (MA) are a well-known, long-established technique that helps smooth out these fluctuations.
I could write a book on the different types of moving\naverages that have been developed over the years, but in my\nown work, I keep coming back to the simple moving average.\nHere’s why."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-60-65-using-the-simple-moving-average-by-martin-j-pring-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-60-65-using-the-simple-moving-average-by-martin-j-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-60-65-using-the-simple-moving-average-by-martin-j-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16678inandd,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (66-78):Interview:Bob And Don Bright Of Bright Trading by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tales Of Professional Daytraders Bob And Don Bright\nOf Bright Trading
Bored in retirement from exploiting the Standard & PoorÕs OEX options spreads, Bob Bright got back into trading in 1992 by forming Bright Trading with partner Edward Franco as an off-floor venue for professional traders Ñ that is, licensed traders. Starting from a single office in Chicago, they offered traders top-drawer market access for as little as 5%of their former overhead plus trading costs of less than a penny a share.
The concept was a hit: the combination of lower costs and local offices proved irresistible to the professional traders, and so, Bright went on to open similar offices around the country, currently up to 32. To get a take on what a professional daytrader does, Interim Editor John Sweeney of STOCKS & COMMODITIES called Bob Bright to find out, getting his brother Don, whose title is trader and director of education for the firm, in the bargain, in a telephone interview conducted on March 14, 2000. Bob BrightÕs part of the conversation is noted as ÒBBÓ and Don Bright as ÒDB.Ó"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-66-78-interview-bob-and-don-bright-of-bright-trading-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-66-78-interview-bob-and-don-bright-of-bright-trading-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-66-78-interview-bob-and-don-bright-of-bright-trading-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1819lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (8-19):Letters To S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects relating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication with our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less)about? Tell us about it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine\nwould not exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS &COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave. SW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@traders.com. Letter-writers must include their full name and address for verification. Letters may be edited for length or\nclarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily represent those of the magazine.Ñ Editor
FIDELITY SELECT FUNDS
Editor,
Last year, I was looking around for a mutual fund trading system, being unhappy with the results I was\nreceiving. At that time, you featured an article\nby Jay Kaeppel on determining the (internal) relative strength of various Fidelity indices (ÒA System\nFor Trading Fidelity Select Funds,Ó STOCKS & COMMODITIES, July 1999).
The article intrigued me and, after corresponding with Kaeppel via E-mail, I wrote and tested a program using\nTechniFilter Plus over all the mutual funds I watch (approximately 700) and was amazed at the results. So much so that I took $10,000 and actually bought $1,000 of each fund the program suggested. By November 1999, the results of that investment persuaded me to\nrecommend the system to various clients, who are today, after two and a half short months, extremely happy with the system.
Admittedly, I did alter KaeppelÕs original suggestion slightly based on my testing and optimization, but I feel\nthat I must still publicly thank Kaeppel and S&C for coming to my rescue with a solution to a problem that I was struggling to solve.
On another matter, I have found a number of programs I use were not Y2K compliant, and the suppliers are charging for a Y2K update. Other companies, on the other hand, sent updates by post at no charge. It would be a good lesson to know which programs were Y2K\ncompliant, because then we would know which programs would be Windows 2000 friendly.
JACK SINGER, via E-mail\nVancouver, BC"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-8-19-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-8-19-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-8-19-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18490911041,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (84,90-91,104-105):Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS' TIPS
Here is this month's selection of Traders' Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented. Internet users will find these and some previous Traders' Tips on our home\npage at http://www.Traders .com.
OMEGA RESEARCH EASYLANGUAGE
In Traders' Tips this month, we take a look at the trend-\nfollowing system and its accompanying indicators as presented in \""How To Get In With The Trend And Out At The End\"" by Bryan Strain in this issue.
A set of three indicators are used, and each contributes a criterion for entering the market. For the record, when I implemented this trend-following strategy in EasyLanguage, not all of my entries and exits coincided with those presented in the article.
Here is the EasyLanguage code for the three indicators that were described in the article, as well as the EasyLanguage code for the signal that is used to create the trading strategy. The indicators and the trading strategy are fairly straightforward. The\nproperties for each indicator are presented after the EasyLanguage. The first indicator presented is the tether line indicator."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-84-90-91-104-105-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-84-90-91-104-105-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-84-90-91-104-105-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18689thevol,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap6jun20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (86-89):The Volcanic Trader by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Volcanic Trader
by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Your temper can torpedo your profitability. Find out if itÕs a problem and how to handle it.
When a trader buries his or her emotions because he does not know how to express himself appropriately, these emotions fester. Once the sum of these\nunexpressed feelings reaches a critical mass, a single, insignificant annoyance is enough to release them in an eruption of inappropriate anger. What was the occasional result from this? This volcanic eruption of anger creates the move that breaks the traderÕs account.
\nThe potential for emotional buildup and subsequent eruptions becomes an occupational hazard, especially if a trader is whipsawed by windfall profits and devastating losses or a steady stream of small losses."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-86-89-the-volcanic-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-86-89-the-volcanic-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-86-89-the-volcanic-trader-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19295prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (92-95):Product Review:OmniTrader 2000"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Most technical analysis programs involve generating\nlists of stocks, bringing up charts of individual securities or indices, inserting several indicators into the charts, and making trading decisions based on the indicators. OmniTrader 2000 gives you something different. This is not a\nproduct for those who like to create their own trading systems and indicators from scratch. Rather, this is a product for those who prefer to let their computers analyze\nthe markets and automatically generate consensus buy/sell signals, based on classic technical analysis strategies, for them to review. OT 2000 reduces the learning\ncurve by automatically back-testing trading systems and combining the results with a vote of all tested systems. The\nresults are then displayed in a list and\nalong the bottom of the chart."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-92-95-product-review-omnitrader-2000-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-92-95-product-review-omnitrader-2000-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-92-95-product-review-omnitrader-2000-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19697prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (96-97):Product Review:Preferred Trade"",""caption-linebreaks"":""It’s not often that a brokerage firm lets you\ntrade on its money, so when I got a chance to try\nPreferred Trade’s online stock/options order execution system on its dime, I jumped at it.
Daytraders and investors are all looking for simple, cost-effective, fast trading these days, and the advent of sophisticated networking, hardware, and software has made it all possible sooner than anyone imagined. Nowadays, there is hardly any reason to deal through an error-prone human if\nyou know what you want to do in the market. (If you don’t know, then a phone is still your best tool.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-96-97-product-review-preferred-trade-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-96-97-product-review-preferred-trade-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-96-97-product-review-preferred-trade-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v199quicscan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:6 (99):Quick Scan:Option Money Version 2.2"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Money is a neat little tool to keep\ntrack of your stock and option positions.\nIt’s not an analytical package; instead, Option Money is a neat little tool to keep track of your stock and option positions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-99-quick-scan-option-money-version-2-2-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-99-quick-scan-option-money-version-2-2-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-6-99-quick-scan-option-money-version-2-2-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12029opdetb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (20-29):Optimal Detrending by John F.Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Optimal Detrending
Did you know that a detrended signal, combined with an\noptimum smoothing filter, can produce an extremely\nresponsive oscillator-type indicator that catches every\ncyclic turn as it happens? It’s true! Here are the details.\nAll pulse echos here must be a jillion ways to\ndetrend price data, and a good\nchunk of them have already been\nexplored in print. Given that, I\nhad to have a new and significant approach to the subject -\nand here it is. I discovered that a\ndetrended signal, combined with an optimum smoothing filter, can produce an extremely responsive oscillator-type indicator.
I borrowed the concept of\nthis new detrending approach\nfor the markets from radar circuit designs, so to understand how it works, let’s first take a\nlook at how radar works.
To refresh your memory, radar (which is an acronym, sort\nof, for radio detecting and ranging) works by transmitting a high-powered radio-frequency (RF) pulse and listening for the return\nechoes from various targets. RF energy travels at the\nspeed of light, and so the round-trip time for an echo\ncomes out to 12.4 microseconds per mile. The distance of the target from the transmitter is determined\nby measuring the time it takes for the echo to return.\nAfter sufficient time has elapsed so no more echoes\nare expected, the radar transmits another pulse. The\nprocess is repeated, and the time between pulses is referred to as the pulse repetition interval (PRI)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-20-29-optimal-detrending-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-20-29-optimal-detrending-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-20-29-optimal-detrending-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13034thestr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (30-34):The Strength Of Support And Resistance by Christopher Narcouzi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Strength Of Support\nAnd Resistance by Christopher Narcouzi
Measuring Overhead Supply
Here's how to quantify support and resistance so you can\nget a good idea ahead of time whether they will hold up when\ntested.
Stocks run up and down between\nsupport and resistance lines.\nSometimes they break through\nsupport and resistance, and sometimes they back off. Usually, they\nback off if the support or resistance is very significant. You\ncan quantify support and resistance using volume around previous tops and bottoms. Here's\nhow to measure the significance of support and resistance so\nyou can get a good idea ahead of time whether they will hold\nup when tested.
SUPPORT AND\nRESISTANCE ZONES
Some people treat support and resistance as exact points. If\nthe resistance line is at $75 and the stock rallies to $76, then\nthey consider resistance to be broken. This is not correct.\nResistance should be expected in the vicinity of $75. The\nstock may meet resistance anywhere between $73 and $77.\nSupport and resistance should be considered approximate\nareas and not precise points. Think of support and resistance\nas zones."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-30-34-the-strength-of-support-and-resistance-by-christopher-narcouzi-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-30-34-the-strength-of-support-and-resistance-by-christopher-narcouzi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-30-34-the-strength-of-support-and-resistance-by-christopher-narcouzi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13641volbas,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (36-41):Volume Basics by Martin J.Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume Basics by Martin J.Pring
How is volume used in technical analysis and what can it\ntell us?
Most of the indicators used in technical analysis are based on pricing data. We either use the prices\nthemselves, a statistical manipulation of the prices with moving\naverages, or oscillators of some\nkind. Volume, though, is an independent variable and can therefore be extremely useful in confirming price action. There are\nmany ways of using volume, such as the construction of\noscillators, on-balance volume lines, and the designing of\nindicators using both volume and price. I will discuss some\nof these more sophisticated variations of volume analysis in\nfuture articles.In this one, however, I will concentrate on the\nbasics.
PERFECT BALANCE
First, it is important to understand there is always a perfect\nbalance between buyers and sellers because the amount of a\nsecurity sold is always identical to that which is purchased.\nWhat moves prices is the relative enthusiasm of buyers and/or sellers. If sellers are more motivated than buyers, then the\nprice will decline. If buyers are more motivated than sellers,\nthen the price will rise."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-36-41-volume-basics-by-martin-j-pring-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-36-41-volume-basics-by-martin-j-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-36-41-volume-basics-by-martin-j-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14248verhor,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (42-48):Vertical Horizontal Filter by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Vertical\nHorizontal\nFilter by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
This filter can tell you whether a market is going through a\ntrending or congestion phase, and whether you should use\ntrend-following indicators if the markets are trending or\ncongestion-phase indicators if markets are in a trading\nrange.
It's always a challenge to determine which indicator you should\nuse to help you make your trading decisions. Markets go\nthrough various stages such as\ntrending or congestion phases,\nand you cannot use the same\nindicators for all the different\nphases. As a result, you must\nidentify the different phases of\nthe markets before you can apply the indicator appropriate for\nthat stage.
The vertical horizontal filter (VHF), which was introduced\nby Adam White in 1991, is one indicator you can use to\ndetermine whether a security is going through a congestion\nphase or a trending phase. The VHF is not your typical\nindicator that gives you buy and sell signals; what the VHF\ndoes is help you decide which indicators to apply. During a\ntrending phase, the vertical rise in prices is stronger than\nduring a congestion phase. The VHF measures the vertical\nrise in prices over time.
The calculation of the VHF indicator is relatively simple,\nand it is explained in the sidebar, \""The vertical horizontal\nfilter.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-42-48-vertical-horizontal-filter-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-42-48-vertical-horizontal-filter-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-42-48-vertical-horizontal-filter-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15056bolban,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (50-56):Bollinger Band Targets by Benjamin L.Cotton"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Bollinger\nBand Targets by Benjamin L.Cotton
You can calculate the future price movement necessary to cross a moving standard deviation band condition such as a Bollinger Band, emoving the guess-work from systems trading on such elationships.\nHere's the logic behind such an indicator as well as\nthe TradeStation programming that makes it work.
My November 1999 article for STOCKS & COMMODITIES introduced the BogieMA, an indicator that solves\nfor the future price that\nwould trigger a moving average crossover. This\ntype of indicator saves traders from plugging in a\nbest-guess price in a database until a trade is simulated. However, moving average relationships are relatively\nsimple to solve; systems that utilize more complex relationships can be much more difficult to solve. I've done the work\nfor you for one of the most popular indicators around,\nBollinger Bands.
To do this, I used two standard deviation bogie indicators.\nThese indicators solve for the price movement necessary to\ntrigger a standard deviation band (such as Bollinger Bands)\nusing the following rule:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-50-56-bollinger-band-targets-by-benjamin-l-cotton-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-50-56-bollinger-band-targets-by-benjamin-l-cotton-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-50-56-bollinger-band-targets-by-benjamin-l-cotton-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v157quicscan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (57):Quick Scan:OptionsNerd.com"",""caption-linebreaks"":""After you’ve been a commodity trading advisor (CTA) for a while, watching people blow off your advice and\nlose money gets a bit draining. For\nJohn Summa, one such CTA, the solution was to close up shop as a public CTA and open a free Website that publishes his daily recommendations, documented through listserver\neGroups."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-57-quick-scan-optionsnerd-com-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-57-quick-scan-optionsnerd-com-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-57-quick-scan-optionsnerd-com-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15862comand,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (58-62):Commodities And The Inflation Rate by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Commodities\nAnd The\nInflation Rate by Alex Saitta
Which individual commodities have the strongest coincidental\nrelationship with the inflation rate?
Successful traders need to keep an eye\non commodity price changes to gain\ninsight into the latest changes in the\ninflation rate and anticipate the next\nbond market move. You cannot rely on\nthe monthly Consumer Price Index\n(CPI) report, since there is a considerable\nlag between the period when the data is\ncollected and the date the report is\nreleased to the public. By the time you get it, it's too late.
Here’s a technique to identify the commodities that\ndisplay the strongest coincidental relationship with the\ninflation rate. This eliminates the need to watch all\ncommodities markets and allows you to focus on those that\nare significant.
STUDY
I used correlation analysis to study the strength of the\nrelationship between commodities and inflation. I selected\n16 widely traded commodity futures markets that update in\nreal time and are widely available to traders. Correlation\nanalysis measures how well two variables move together\nover time, and it results in the formation of a statistic referred\nto as the correlation coefficient. The coefficient ranges from -1.0 to +1.0 and identifies the direction as well as the strength\nof a relationship between the two variables.
A coefficient of +1.0 marks a perfect positive relationship.\nThis means that when one variable rises, the other rises in\nlockstep. When one falls, the other falls in lockstep. A\ncoefficient between zero and +1.0 is a nonperfect positive\nrelationship. When one variable rises, usually the other\nrises. When one falls, typically the other falls. When the\ncoefficient is less than zero, a negative or inverse\nrelationship exists. A coefficient of zero indicates there is\nno relationship at all between the two variables, so when\none variable changes, it is equally likely the other variable\nwill rise or fall. (For a detailed discussion of the calculation\nof the correlation coefficient, see sidebar, \""Correlation\ncoefficient calculation.\"")"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-58-62-commodities-and-the-inflation-rate-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-58-62-commodities-and-the-inflation-rate-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-58-62-commodities-and-the-inflation-rate-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v166quicscan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (66):Quick Scan:OmniAlert"",""caption-linebreaks"":""It’s the world of tomorrow,available\ntoday, cramped though it may be. Try to\ncram a browser into your digital PCS\nphone’s screen. Or smart phones, pagers, Windows/CE devices, Palm Pilots, or personal digital assistants (PDAs).To\nthose truly hooked on constant notification, it’s possible with OmniAlert from EZalert.net."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-66-quick-scan-omnialert-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-66-quick-scan-omnialert-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-66-quick-scan-omnialert-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17080inmcca,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (70-80):Interview:Richard McCabe Of Merrill Lynch by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Richard McCabe\nOf Merrill Lynch
The Technical Tradition Continues
Continuing the technical tradition begun by Bob Farrell,\nMerrill Lynch chief market analyst Richard McCabe has\nbeen Mr.Technical Analysis at the world’s largest brokerage\nsince 1993, following in Farrell’s footsteps. McCabe heads\na staff scattered around the world that brings to the company’s\nstock evaluation process the insights into the market’s condition that technical analysis offers. A Merrill Lynch loyalist\nhis entire career, McCabe joined Farrell’s shop in 1964 and\nhas practiced technical analysis since then. What approach\nhas been sanctioned by the brokerage’s movers and shakers?\nHow does Merrill fit technical analysis into its world and\npresent it to its customers? And which customers listen?\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES Interim Editor John Sweeney conducted this interview via telephone on March 27, 2000, to get\na take on technical analysis in the big time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-70-80-interview-richard-mccabe-of-merrill-lynch-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-70-80-interview-richard-mccabe-of-merrill-lynch-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-70-80-interview-richard-mccabe-of-merrill-lynch-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1816lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (8-16):Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Tell us\nabout it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine\nwould not exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@Traders.com. Letter-writers must\ninclude their full name and address for verification. Letters may be edited for length or\nclarity. All letters become the property of Technical Analysis, Inc. The opinions expressed\nin this column do not necessarily represent those of the magazine. —Editor
HILBERT INDICATORS
Editor,
Although I’m not a\nmathematician, my appetite for indicators\nwas stimulated by John\nEhlers’s March 2000\nS&C article, \""Hilbert\nIndicators Tell You When To Trade.\""\nThanks to the lucid explanation of lag\nelimination in exponential moving averages, I have been able to apply the\ntechnique to the Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets that I use for stock charting.
However, a similar application of the\nHilbert transform to identifying cycles\nwithin a historical stock-data string\neludes me. I confess to not possessing a\nprogram that uses EasyLanguage and\nask if you can refer me to a suitable\narticle detailing the use of the transform\nwith a spreadsheet. I may say I am\naverse to taking a black-box approach\nwhen it comes to generating indicators.
TREVOR BESTOW, via E-mail\nRoleystone, Australia
Thank you for writing. Sorry, we haven't\npublished an article on the Hilbert transform with a spreadsheet approach. See\nalso the next letter. —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-8-16-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-8-16-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-8-16-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18183tradti,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (81-83):Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed\nby various developers of technical analysis software to help\nreaders more easily implement some of the strategies presented. Internet users will also find these and some previous\nTraders’ Tips on our Website at http://www.Traders.com.
BIOCOMP
In \""Bollinger Band Targets\"" by Benjamin Cotton in this issue,\nthe future price that is required to cross a Bollinger Band is\ncalculated. A similar indicator available within Biocomp\nProfit, WinPctB, calculates price relative to a Bollinger Band.\nWinPctB is the percentage distance from +/-2 standard\ndeviations from the mean of price over a user-definable time\nwindow. Although it doesn’t calculate a future price as Cotton\ndescribes in his article, WinPctB provides valuable\ninformation. To employ the stated transformation, follow\nthese steps:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-81-83-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-81-83-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-81-83-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18587prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (85-87):Product Review:Byte Into The Market"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Is it time to introduce a new charting, analysis, and system development package with no built-in data sponsor?\nTarn Software thinks so. Besides all the usual charting\nand analytical tools, with Byte Into The Market (BITM) they've created what is (to my knowledge) the first effective graphic programming formulary for trading system developers.
BITM's absolutely unique feature is its graphic construction of trading systems and indicators (Figure 1). All you do to replicate your logic is to drag your elements\nfrom the toolbox over to the editing window and drop them into the proper place in your expression. Eliminating typing saves countless hours of debugging, and\nthe simplicity of the graphic expression helps you understand the rules you've created. Nor are these indicators fixed."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-85-87-product-review-byte-into-the-market-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-85-87-product-review-byte-into-the-market-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-85-87-product-review-byte-into-the-market-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18890prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (88-90):Product Review:Bandit University"",""caption-linebreaks"":""First, it was the online discount brokerages followed\nby real-time datafeeds, electronic communication networks (ECNs), direct access brokerages, after-hours trading.…\nIt didn't take long to figure out that trading was the rage. After all, who wouldn't want to follow in the footsteps\nof their neighbors who quit their day jobs and made a better living by trading their own account?
More and more people are anxious to learn the art of trading,and as a result, various institutions have popped up all over that teach individuals this novel craft. Curious to find out what gets taught at these institutions, I attended\nthe Guerrilla Trading course at Bandit University. Ken Goldberg, former Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)\nmarket maker and investment banker, launched this venture with the objective of teaching nonprofessional investors\nthe art of successful trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-88-90-product-review-bandit-university-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-88-90-product-review-bandit-university-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-88-90-product-review-bandit-university-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19193prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (91-93):Product Review:Ganntrader 3.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Classic analytical tools such as the one used by W.D.\nGann in the arly 1900s have been difficult to accurately recreate in software form. Ganntrader 3.0 has overcome this\nobstacle by creating a program that shapes Gann's techniques to fit current market conditions. Gann was renowned\nfor being able to forecast future market activity by using certain charting techniques. All these significant techniques and tools that he used have been included in Ganntrader 3.0.Gann's techniques may not be easy for the novice trader to grasp, but the program is designed in such a way as not to intimidate those who aspire to learn about the subject."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-91-93-product-review-ganntrader-3-0-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-91-93-product-review-ganntrader-3-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-91-93-product-review-ganntrader-3-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19497104105,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap7jul20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:7 (94-97,104-105):Traders' Resource: Brokerages"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Brokerages
Hardly anything has changed as much in\nthe last year as the world of brokerages\nhas. No longer is the best choice necessarily your buddy downtown, especially\nif you make your own decisions about\nwhere to put your money. Self-directed\ntraders, as STOCKS & COMMODITIES\nreaders usually are, have more choices\nthan ever in their ongoing search for speed, pricing efficiency, and good accounting.
First, you have to find a brokerage that handles your tradable;\nfull-service brokerages dealing with equities, options, futures,\nbonds, mutual funds, foreign exchange, and cash goods are\nusually full-priced as well. A little scouting, however, will get\nyou a brokerage targeted on your market of interest.
After that, your first question these days might be, \""How\nfast can I execute an order?\"" Look\nfor whether the brokerage offers\ndirect access to automated exchange trading systems, market\nmakers and electronic communications networks (ECNs). If not,\ncheck to see if there is at least the\nfirst-generation electronic trading capability of E-mailing instructions to a central desk. Absent that, you’re relegated to oldfashioned phone calls."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-94-97-104-105-traders-resource-brokerages-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-94-97-104-105-traders-resource-brokerages-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-7-94-97-104-105-traders-resource-brokerages-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1102105trad2,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (102-105):Traders' Resource:Data Services"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Resource Data Services
If you thought brokerages have had to\nface a new world, think of data services. The advent of the Internet has\nmade available many pieces of software with dedicated access to securities data maintained by the software\nvendor. This gives you, the buyer, fewer\nchoices when you buy the software,\nand it is now a key issue to sort out when investigating\nsoftware, particularly Web-based software. On the one\nhand, all the data maintenance hassles are taken out of your\nhands; on the other, the vendor may be too casual for your\ntastes in how they maintain the data youÕre given to use.
If your software can accept data from several sources,\nyouÕre in the power position, because never have there been\nso many sellers and resellers of data. Look especially for\none with a dedicated staff to clean up the inevitable errors.\nEven better is a service with an automatic refresh procedure\nthat constantly processes corrections to your historical\ndatabase.After cleanliness, thereÕs reliability and, finally,\nprice to consider. Check around and take advantage of any\nfree trials."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-102-105-traders-resource-data-services-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-102-105-traders-resource-data-services-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-102-105-traders-resource-data-services-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v12029taktec,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (20-29):Taking The Tech Sector Apart --Technically by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Taking The Tech Sector Apart — Technically by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
The recent downfall in technology stocks came as a\nshock to some traders. Here’s how you could have\nprotected your profits.
You would find that a picture is truly worth a\nthousand words if\nyou were to glance\nat the chart of the\nNasdaq Composite\nin Figure 1. The\nchart gives you the overall picture of the performance of the technology sector. From October 1999 to early\nMarch 2000, the Nasdaq enjoyed one of the greatest\nbull rides in history. During this period, traders and\ninvestors were heavily invested in the technology\nsector, which showed brightly promising returns. It\nseemed as if each day during that period, a new\nmillionaire emerged onto the scene. Those who\nweren’t invested in the stock market were given the\nimpression that if they didn’t get in the stock market\nnow they would miss the opportunity of a lifetime.\nBut it just took two weeks in early to mid-April for\nall this optimism to come to a shocking and, for\nsome, painful halt."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-20-29-taking-the-tech-sector-apart-technically-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-20-29-taking-the-tech-sector-apart-technically-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-20-29-taking-the-tech-sector-apart-technically-by-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13041tradst,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (30-41):Trading Stochastic Pops by David Steckler"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading\nStochastic\nPops by David Steckler
You can identify breakouts using stochastic pops. What are they, anyway?
Many equity traders\nstrive to identify stocks\nthat are ready to break\nout and begin a sustained price move up.\nThe difficulty lies in\nidentifying which stocks are getting ready\nto break out and determining when the\nbreakout will occur.
One technique I like to use to identify\nbreakouts is the stochastic pop. The \""pop\""\ncomes about when the stochastic indicator\ngoes above the 70 to 80 level. Instead of\nreversing, however, the stock keeps going\nand momentum continues to rise. \""Stochastic pop\"" is actually a misnomer, since\nthe pop is in the price, not the stochastic.\nThe stochastic itself stays above 70 or 80,\nheld there by the price moving up and\nstaying high in its daily ranges.
SETUP CONDITIONS
I identify a stochastic pop setup when the\nfollowing conditions occur:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-30-41-trading-stochastic-pops-by-david-steckler-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-30-41-trading-stochastic-pops-by-david-steckler-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-30-41-trading-stochastic-pops-by-david-steckler-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14246catdji,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (42-46):Catching DJIA Breakouts by Mark Vakkur, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Catching DJIA Breakouts\nby Mark Vakkur, M.D.
Buying breakouts in the Dow Jones Industrial Average works well - but there are caveats.
If the trend is your friend, the simplest way to use\nthat idea is to buy only those markets that are\nbreaking out to new highs. But is this really a good\nstrategy? As it turns out, at least for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), breakouts are very useful in identifying periods of increased profitability. I\nstudied breakouts on the DJIA from February 1988 to November 1998. If breakouts truly are useful, buying a\nbreakout over this 11-year span should have led to a greater than average\nsubsequent four-week and eight-week\nprofitability.
Obviously, the DJIA has been in an\nextraordinary secular bull market since\n1982; it may behave differently in a\ndowntrend or a trading range. Many\nmarket players are now used to buying\nhigh and selling higher. I leave it to\nyou to apply the concepts presented\nhere to your tradable of choice. That\nsaid, here's how the DJIA performed\nfollowing breakouts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-42-46-catching-djia-breakouts-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-42-46-catching-djia-breakouts-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-42-46-catching-djia-breakouts-by-mark-vakkur-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v14246chaikm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (42-46):Chaikin's Money Flow by Christopher Narcouzi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Chaikin's\nMoney Flow by Christopher Narcouzi
An indicator combining price and volume could spotlight\nbuying and selling, and Chaikin's money flow is such an\nindicator. Use it with basic charting techniques to increase\nyour chances of success.
Most momentum measurements and\noscillators use only price in their\ncalculations. To use several such\nindicators is essentially redundant,\nsince they tend to be highly correlated; another indicator should be\nconsidered, one that is not highly\ncorrelated with momentum and\noscillators. Trader and analyst\nMarc Chaikin’s money flow fits the bill. It uses price and\nvolume to give you a look at what is going on under the\nsurface of the price action. It gives you a picture of the supply/demand situation and shows you whether the stock is under\naccumulation or distribution. I use this indicator to confirm\nbreakouts from chart patterns.
DEFINITION
Chaikin’s money flow is based\non Chaikin’s accumulation/distribution. Accumulation/distribution, in turn, is based\non the premise that if the stock\ncloses above its midpoint\n[(high+low)/2] for the day,\nthen there was accumulation\nthat day, and if it closes below\nits midpoint, then there was\ndistribution that day.\nChaikin's money flow is calculated by summing the values of accumulation/distribution for 21 periods and then\ndividing by the 21-period sum\nof the volume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-42-46-chaikin-s-money-flow-by-christopher-narcouzi-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-42-46-chaikin-s-money-flow-by-christopher-narcouzi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-42-46-chaikin-s-money-flow-by-christopher-narcouzi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v15663aputra,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (56-63):A Put/Call Ratio Oscillator To Pinpoint Market Conditions by John Summa"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Put/Call Ratio Oscillator To Pinpoint Market Conditions\nby John Summa
Who says the put/call ratio doesn't work anymore? Here's an oscillator that's great for pinpointing intermediate market tops and bottoms.
What's the ideal time to write an\noption? The ideal time to write\na deep out-of-the-money \n(DOTM) put or call options\ncredit spread? While charts\nmay tell you when to exit such\na position, the correct use of\nput/call ratios offer an excellent\nway of determining just when to\nenter your trade. Here's one approach to interpreting equity-only put/call ratios, combined with my own volume-weighted,\nput/call ratio oscillator for finding just when to write your\nDOTM spreads for maximum probability of success.
During any intermediate bull or bear trend, investor moods\ntend to remain slanted in one direction or the other - hopeful\nor worried, driven by greed on one hand and fear on the other.\nWhen either sentiment becomes too prevalent, contrarian\nanalysis suggests that the trend is ready for a change. This is\nbased on the view long held by technicians that the majority\nof the investing public is usually wrong just when everything\nseems right. Historical data confirms that it is indeed possible\nto construct parameters that indicate when the crowd has\ngone too far toward one extreme or the other,where condi-\ntions are thus ripe for a reversal.
Market professionals and insiders, therefore, often attempt\nto trade crowd psychology in the opposite direction, often\nreferred to as contrarian technical analysis. Indeed, put/call\nratios have been, and remain, very effective contrarian sen-\ntiment tools, particularly since the public's speculative use of\noptions has exploded with the online investing revolution."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-56-63-a-put-call-ratio-oscillator-to-pinpoint-market-conditions-by-john-summa-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-56-63-a-put-call-ratio-oscillator-to-pinpoint-market-conditions-by-john-summa-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-56-63-a-put-call-ratio-oscillator-to-pinpoint-market-conditions-by-john-summa-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v157quicscan1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (57):Quick Scan:MB Trader"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MB Trading,which was formed by institutional brokers, offers a professional-level, Internet-based,nonbrowser order\nentry platform.This platform consists of Small Order Execution Systems (SOES), SelectNet, Island, Redibook, Instinet, and the Archipelago order routes for Nasdaq securities and the SuperDOT (designated order turn-around) system for NYSE and AMEX securities, all in the form of MB Trader.\nThe MB Trader product offers all of the\ntools; it offers charts, Level II, time &\nsales, and minders in a fully\ncustomizable package, allowing you to\ntailor your trading page with the proper\ntools to suit your trading style. Select\njust the tools you want, then resize and\nmove them to fit your needs."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-57-quick-scan-mb-trader-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-57-quick-scan-mb-trader-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-57-quick-scan-mb-trader-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16467prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (64-67):Product Review:Quick Harmonic Trader"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The use of financial astrology to predict future price\nactivity in stocks isn't a new concept; in fact, W.D.Gann\nwas one of its earlier proponents. Although most of the analysis has been done manually, some of it has been automated by recreating those techniques and implementing them in software. Quick Harmonic Trader is an example. The program uses the power of harmonics, which is the geometric relationship between two or more planets, to help you understand why the market does what it does and when it is likely to do it again. Although some applications\nof financial astrology require considerable knowledge of the subject, this program is simple to use."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-64-67-product-review-quick-harmonic-trader-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-64-67-product-review-quick-harmonic-trader-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-64-67-product-review-quick-harmonic-trader-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v16976philbe,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (69-76):Philip Berber Of CyBerCorp by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Brokerages: The Next Generation\nPhilip Berber\nOf CyBerCorp
Before Philip Berber formed CyBerCorp, a next-generation,\nelectronic brokerage group providing real-time, direct-access trading, and Internet execution technology, he had\nalready made a name for himself as the founder of Financia.\nFinancia was notable for being the first company in Europe\nto apply artificial intelligence, expert systems, and technical\nanalysis to market prediction, stock selection, and timing.\nBerber, a native of Ireland, sold CyBerCorp to top US online\nbroker Charles Schwab Co. in March 2000. What's next for\nhim? To find out, Interim Editor John Sweeney spoke with\nBerber via telephone on May 1, 2000.
How did you get started\nwith CyBerCorp?
I was really looking for\nmy next adventure after I\nsold Financia, and I got introduced in\nthe very early days to a daytrading room\nin Houston at the end of 1995. I saw the\ntechnologies that these traders were\nusing, and given my background, I could\nsee how those technologies would\nevolve. That's when I chose to start\nCyBerCorp and to design, develop, and\ndeliver the next generation of directaccess electronic trading technologies,\nwhich I made available over the Internet\nin 1997.
And that was key, wasn't it? The advent of the Internet provided the communications structure that would make\ndirect access work.
The Internet meant that these technologies would no longer be restricted\nto the bricks-and-mortar trading rooms\nthat had evolved in the US. The Internet\nmeant that there were no limitations in\nterms of making the information and\nexecution technology available to any\nqualified trader and investor throughout the world."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-69-76-philip-berber-of-cybercorp-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-69-76-philip-berber-of-cybercorp-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-69-76-philip-berber-of-cybercorp-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17778prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (77-78):Product Review:The Ultra Signal File Optimizer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Ultra Market Advisor is both software and a data service\nto generate trading signals for use with funds or indices. Ultra 5 contains 62 publicly available, separate market\ntiming strategies for the US stock market, bonds, and gold. These strategies can be tested historically against a 58-year historical database,so you can be sure that they’ve worked in the past. All of the system formulas are disclosed."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-77-78-product-review-the-ultra-signal-file-optimizer-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-77-78-product-review-the-ultra-signal-file-optimizer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-77-78-product-review-the-ultra-signal-file-optimizer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v188816letters1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (8-16):Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Tell us\nabout it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine\nwould not exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@Traders.com. Letter-writers must\ninclude their full name and address for verification. Letters may be edited for length or\nclarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily represent those of the\nmagazine. -Editor
THE MARBLE GAME
Editor,
In the April 1999 issue of\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES, you published an\ninterview with Van K. Tharp, in which he described a marble\ngame he uses in his seminars to demonstrate the importance of position sizing.\nThat simple paragraph is responsible\nfor completely transforming my trading\nresults.
I had been actively trading stocks for\ntwo years with sporadic results and minimal success. My system was outstanding in keeping me out of market downturns, so I should have done extremely\nwell. But in the first quarter of 1999, I\nactually managed to lose money while\nthe Nasdaq went up 20%.
I was intrigued by the game referred\nto in the interview, so I duplicated it\nusing some Chinese checkers marbles.\nPartway through my first game, I came\nto the stunning realization that I had just\nmade the same mistake that was sabotaging my performance in the stock\nmarket. After a short run of winners, I\nhad doubled my position size just in\ntime to double the magnitude of the one\nbig losing marble in the game.
While I was dealing with the complexity of trading the market, I didnÕt\ncomprehend what I was doing. But in\nthis game with simple rules and fixed\nprobabilities, it was immediately apparent. I reacted to good gains by trading much bigger, which magnified subsequent losses. And after a few losses I\ntraded much smaller, which minimized\nsubsequent gains. I was guaranteeing\nresults substantially worse than the pure\nprobability of success using my system.
I played the marble game dozens of\ntimes, charting my performance, until I\nhad drilled some basic position sizing\nprinciples into my head. In the past\nyear, since I read that article, my ac-\ncount has gained 50%, even though I\nwas out of the market for several months\nas a result of major surgery.
That one revelation has already been\nworth hundreds of times the cost of a\nsubscription to STOCKS & COMMODITIES. Thank you, and please thank Dr. Tharp.\nKRISTINE ERICKSON, via E-mail"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-8-16-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-8-16-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-8-16-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18093prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (80,93):Product Review:ITRNet"",""caption-linebreaks"":""International Traders Research Inc.(ITR) maintains a\ncomprehensive database of domestic and foreign Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). ITR tracks performance information on more than 400 CTA programs who have at least $250,000 under management. For a subscription fee of $575 per year,\nthey distribute a publication titled Quarterly CTA Report, a hefty volume of more than 1,000 pages."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-80-93-product-review-itrnet-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-80-93-product-review-itrnet-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-80-93-product-review-itrnet-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v182849192tr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (82-84,91-92):Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here is this month's selection of Traders' Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented. Some of the tips here were contributed by the authors of articles in this issue.
Internet users will also find these and some previous\nTraders' Tips on our Website at http://www.traders.com/S&C_homepg.html. For easiest access to the Traders' Tips listings, use the search engine at www.traders.com by typing 'Traders Tips' into the search field box..
OMEGA RESEARCH EASYLANGUAGE\nIn 'Catching DJIA Breakouts' in this issue, I discuss the\nstrategy of buying markets that are breaking out to new highs, and present the results of buying breakouts in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
In EasyLanguage, you can create a Boolean variable or a ShowMe study to simply test whether the two conditions of a breakout are met. However, I thought it more useful to have the function return the number of bars since the last time a new high was achieved. The only time a number other than zero is returned is when it is a true breakout (the function will return a zero either when no new high is achieved or when a new high has been achieved, but it has not been a breakout of look_bak length or greater).\nThe EasyLanguage code for this function, which I have\ncalled Breakout_Range2, follows: ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-82-84-91-92-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-82-84-91-92-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-82-84-91-92-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18688prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (86-88):Product Review:EquityTrader.com"",""caption-linebreaks"":""EquityTrader.com
ACME ANALYTICS\nInternet:http:www.equitytrader.com\nProduct:Stock performance\npotential software.\nPrice:Free for registering
by John Sweeney
EquityTrader, an Internet\nservice of John Bollinger’s\nAcme Analytics, is designed to provide a quick\nevaluation of the past performance and potential appreciation of\nequities, employing fuzzy logic for the\ntask.\nBoth fundamental and technical factors are taken into account to arrive at\nthe potential return conclusion. There\nare 54 rules, and 10 factors account for\nalmost all 54 described on the EquityTrader Website, but the best test of its\nefficacy is the chart you can pull up for\neach stock. Just below the chart (which,\nnaturally, has Bollinger Bands prominently placed on it) is a color-coded line\nshowing the past predictions by the fuzzy\nlogic process. In Figure 1, for example,\nCablevision’s decline is accompanied\nby a steady red reading, and even its\ntrading range generates mostly reds and\nyellows, which allows you to quickly\nassess how well the process works on\neach stock."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-86-88-product-review-equitytrader-com-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-86-88-product-review-equitytrader-com-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-86-88-product-review-equitytrader-com-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19497100pri,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap8aug20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:8 (94-97,100):Price Patterns, Part I by Martin J. Pring"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price Patterns, Part I\nby Martin J.Pring
This veteran market analyst takes a look at the principles of\nprice formation, one of the basics of technical analysis.
In my recent articles, I have covered many basics of technical\nanalysis, ranging from peak and\ntrough analysis all the way to\nmoving averages. What I\nhaven't covered is one of the\nmost widely used concepts of\ntechnical analysis: price patterns. This time, I'll take a look\nat the principles of price formations, together with some of\nthe most common varieties. Next time, I'll examine one-\nand two-day patterns, because they can be extremely useful for short-term traders.
In most charts, you'll find that prices rarely reverse on a\ndime; rather, they experience clearly definable trading ranges\nprior to experiencing a trend reversal. Figure 1 shows such an\nexample. In the left-hand part of the chart, the price rallies and\nthen loses upside momentum as a battle between buyers and\nsellers gets under way.
Often, it is possible to construct two horizontal trendlines\nto mark the top and bottom of the range. Every time the pric\nrallies to the upper line, buyers are scared off by the higher\nprice and selling pressure increases. Then, as it falls to the\nlower line, buyers are attracted,but sellers, who naturally\nwant a higher price for their goods, withdraw their offerings,\nso the price bounces again. Eventually, sellers win this battle\nas the price slips decisively below the lower end of the range.\nThe charting activity that separates the uptrend from the\ndowntrend can be contained by two parallel trendlines known\nas a rectangle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-94-97-100-price-patterns-part-i-by-martin-j-pring-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-94-97-100-price-patterns-part-i-by-martin-j-pring-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-8-94-97-100-price-patterns-part-i-by-martin-j-pring-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv1122,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap9sep20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (12-20): Chart Pattern Surprises by Thomas Bulkowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Chart Pattern Surprises by Thomas Bulkowski
What chart patterns are really reliable, portending significant moves? This S&C author did some research,and we present the results from his survey of some 15,000 patterns.
In exploring and answering questions about the stock data we follow and the technical tools we use, sometimes we make startling discoveries. These discoveries may help you improve your investment performance or just add to your general knowledge. I spent a year studying more than 15,000 chart patterns while I was working on my book, Encyclopedia Of Chart Patterns . Of the dozens of surprises I uncovered, here are a few that you may find revealing and useful."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-12-20-chart-pattern-surprises-by-thomas-bulkowski-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-12-20-chart-pattern-surprises-by-thomas-bulkowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-12-20-chart-pattern-surprises-by-thomas-bulkowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv1222,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap9sep20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (22-29): Using Oscillators With On-Balance Volume by Carl F.Ehrlich"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Oscillators With On-Balance Volume by Carl F.Ehrlich
On-balance volume, which was developed by technician Joe Granville in the 1960s, was the first technical study to project market price movement using volume. In the following decades, other technicians have attempted to improve on Granville’s work. Here’s a review of these different studies in accumulation and distribution, and a methodology to utilize them in a trading program.
When Joseph Granville originally published A Strategy Of Daily Stock Market Timing For Maximum Profit in 1960, the work initially met with derision from the traditional investment world.He had the last laugh, though, because you can find Granville’s methodology in all trading software today, as well as in a myriad of books on the subject of technical analysis. In al l those places, you will find the results of his work, but his own words describing his concept are much harder to find. That’s something I can share with you."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-22-29-using-oscillators-with-on-balance-volume-by-carl-f-ehrlich-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-22-29-using-oscillators-with-on-balance-volume-by-carl-f-ehrlich-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-22-29-using-oscillators-with-on-balance-volume-by-carl-f-ehrlich-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv1323,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap9sep20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (32-39): What You Need To Know About Gaps by Joe Luisi and Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What You Need To Know About Gaps by Joe Luisi and Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
Have you ever wondered what gaps are and why they occur? Here are the various types, examples - and an answer.
Ever had an open position at the close one day, only to find that a significant change in price had occurred when the market opened the following trading day? These changes in price are referred to as gaps and are the result of some action that took place between the\nclose and the next day’s open.
With the advent of 24-hour trading and extended-hours trading, it is not unusual to come across significant changes in prices at the open of one day from the previous day’s close. All markets trade during specified times. Each market has its own opening and closing times, called market hours or pit session. Some markets are open for eight hours a day,while others are open for a shorter period. For example, the foreign currencies that trade at the IMM in Chicago open at 7:20 am Central Time and close at 2:00 pm, while the live cattle market opens at 9:05 am Central Time and closes at 1:00 pm."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-32-39-what-you-need-to-know-about-gaps-by-joe-luisi-and-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-32-39-what-you-need-to-know-about-gaps-by-joe-luisi-and-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-32-39-what-you-need-to-know-about-gaps-by-joe-luisi-and-jayanthi-gopalakrishnan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv1424,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap9sep20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (42-46): Squelch Those Whipsaws by John F.Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Squelch Those Whipsaws by John F.Ehlers
What’s real price movement and what’s just noise? Figuring out the difference is vital, and here’s an objective measure to help you out.
Hey, good buddy! Ever operate a citizens' band (CB) radio? If you haven't, most CBs are relatively simple devices, usually with three controls: a channel selector, a volume control, and a squelch control. Squelch control is important to the operation of the radio because without it, there would be no way for the radio to distinguish between static noise and a real signal from a transmitter.
Such a distinction can also be important to your trading. If you could avoid periods when the market had no clear trend, you’d avoid whipsaws and get cleaner trades. If you could identify periods that were filled with noise and no clear data, you could also switch trading tactics to suit the situation. At the very least, you’d know what situation you faced."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-42-46-squelch-those-whipsaws-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-42-46-squelch-those-whipsaws-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-42-46-squelch-those-whipsaws-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v147quicscan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (47):Quick Scan:The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Perhaps Robert Prechter’s background\nin psychology and financial markets\nhad something to do with his interest in\nthe study of patterns,which is what\nforms the backbone of this unusual and\ninteresting book. Although the subject\nof Elliott wave theory has had a strong\nfoothold in the field of technical analysis, its relationship with socioeconomics\nprovides a unique twist to the subject."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-47-quick-scan-the-wave-principle-of-human-social-behavior-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-47-quick-scan-the-wave-principle-of-human-social-behavior-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-47-quick-scan-the-wave-principle-of-human-social-behavior-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv1486,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap9sep20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (48-63): Interview: Nassim N. Taleb by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Interview: Nassim N. Taleb by John Sweeney
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a quantitative trader operating at the intersection of theory and practice. Currently president and head trader at Empirica Capital LLC, a hedge fund operator in Greenwich, CT, and adjunct professor of mathematics at the Courant Institute of New York University (NYU), Taleb has held senior derivative trading positions at Union Bank of Switzerland, CS – First Boston, BNP –Paribas, Credit Agricole – Indosuez, and Bankers Trust; he was also a floor trader on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
In 1997, Taleb stirred the incredulity of institutional heads and financial system regulators by pointing out the logical holes in the rapidly developing consensus that value at risk (VAR) was the best single measurement of an institution’s exposure to untoward events. He pointed out that, by definition, we do not know the distribution of future unusual events or even know how often they occur within the parametric distributions used by institutional financial engineers. He advocated taking positions based on available information and understanding rather than by what fell out of encoded differential equations.
Since that time, academics have started to explore mechanisms by which inefficient pricing and unusual events occur, and confidence in “engineered” measures has fallen in favor of more pragmatic, “know your business” rules for protecting institutions’ trading. For his part, Taleb took to exploiting the unusual opportunities available in equity options by establishing a private, closed, hedge fund operator, which is where STOCKS & COMMODITIES Interim Editor John Sweeney spoke to him in June 2000."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-48-63-interview-nassim-n-taleb-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-48-63-interview-nassim-n-taleb-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-48-63-interview-nassim-n-taleb-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv164t,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap9sep20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (64-69): Trend-Following With The ADX by Martin Boot"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trend-Following With The ADX by Martin Boot
Have you ever been interested in a system, but weren’t quite sure how it worked? Here’s a simple and robust trend-following system using the ADX, with only one entry condition and one exit condition.
To design and develop a sound trading system, we need a clear and logical basic idea. From this, we must derive proposed entry and exit points. A sound trading system must be robust; for the system to be as robust as possible, the idea must be as simple as possible. A robust system is one that behaves consistently in different markets; a robust system should not need constant adjustments for any new market to which it is applied. I kept these criteria in mind when I decided to develop a trend-following system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-64-69-trend-following-with-the-adx-by-martin-boot-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-64-69-trend-following-with-the-adx-by-martin-boot-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-64-69-trend-following-with-the-adx-by-martin-boot-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v170quicscan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (70):Quick Scan:Online Trading Academy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Everyone’s used to the idea of institutions trading millions of dollars for very\nsmall increments of gain. How’d you\nlike to trade very large chunks of your\nown capital —$200,000,say —for very small increments of gain (maybe $19)? It’s called daytrading, and Online\nTrading Academy brings the reality of this activity to your computer screen with a trading course whose realism\nincludes all the nitty-gritty details."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-70-quick-scan-online-trading-academy-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-70-quick-scan-online-trading-academy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-70-quick-scan-online-trading-academy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17274prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (72-74):Product Review:ASCTrend/eASCTrend"",""caption-linebreaks"":""ASCTrend/\neASCTrend
by John Sweeney
ABLESYS CORPORATION\n24301 Southland Drive, Suite 400\nHayward, CA 94545\nPhone: 888 272-1688\nFax: 510 265-1993\nE-mail: ablesys@ablesys.com\nInternet: http://www.ablesys.com\nProduct: Trading software\nEquipment requirements: ASCTrend\nand eASCTrend: 200MHz CPU, 64 MB\nRAM, 5 MB hard disk space, Windows\n95/98/NT; MMX or sound card;\nspeakers. eASCTrend: eSignal for data.\nASCTrend 2.0 and 3.0 is available for\nTradeStation 4.0 and ProSuite, respectively.\nPrice: Leased at $545 to $1,645 per\nyear, depending on version; 30-day\ntrial for $138.
ASCTrend is proprietary trading software designed to\ngive trading signals on just\nabout any series of prices\nyou can feed it. The real\nvalue in ASCTrend is that it has gone\nthrough all the development headaches\nof the past five years and is now a stable\ntrading guide you can use on intraday\ndata or daily/weekly/monthly data.
DATA
I tested the newest version, eASCTrend,\nwhich has the capability of hooking\nonto eSignal’s Internet datafeed. You\ncan get all the historical data you want\nthrough the datafeed, allowing you to\nvisually review ASCTrend’s signals and\nindicators."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-72-74-product-review-asctrend-easctrend-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-72-74-product-review-asctrend-easctrend-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-72-74-product-review-asctrend-easctrend-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v17881prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (78-81):Product Review: CyBerTrader 2.1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CyBerTrader 2.1
CYBERCORP.COM, INC.\n115 Wild Basin Rd.\nAustin, TX 78746\nPhone: 512 320-5444,\n888 76-CYBER\nFax: 512 320-1561\nE-mail:\ncorrespondence@cybercorp.com\nInternet: http://www.cybercorp.com\nProduct: Direct-access brokerage\npackage providing customers with real-time datafeed and order executions.\nEquipment requirements: Pentium\n266 MHz or better, 128 MB, 50 MB\nhard drive space, 17-inch high-resolution monitor, Windows 98/NT.\nPrice: Account minimum $10,000;\n$99 per month (free if you make at\nleast 50 trades); $9.95 – 17.95 commission per trade.
The needs of active, short-term\ntraders who make several\ntrades per day must by necessity be different from those of\ntraders who make only a few\ntrades per month. To meet the needs of\nboth types of traders, CyBerCorp, Inc.,\nhas introduced a couple of packages:\nOne is CyBerTrader 2.1 for the active\ntrader, and the other is CyBerX for the\nless-active trader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-78-81-product-review-cybertrader-2-1-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-78-81-product-review-cybertrader-2-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-78-81-product-review-cybertrader-2-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv1810,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap9sep20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (8-10): Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
The editors of S&C received, among others, letters discussing daytrading margin changes, planetary influences on the stock market, and John Ehler's article about adaptive trends and oscillators."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-8-10-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-8-10-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-8-10-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v18289prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (82-89):Product Review:VectorVest ProGraphics Version 5.0 and VectorVest ProTrader"",""caption-linebreaks"":""VectorVest ProGraphics\nVersion 5.0 And Vector\nVest ProTrader
by Barbara Star,Ph.D.
VECTORVEST, INC.\n2167 Wehrle Drive\nWilliamsville, NY 14221\nPhone: 716 565-9630, 888 658-7638\nFax: 716 632-4871\nE-mail: sales@vectorvest.com\nInternet: http://www.vectorvest.com\nProduct: A stock analysis and portfolio\nmanagement system with buy, sell, and\nhold recommendations plus a separate\ntechnical analysis charting program with\npattern recognition capabilities.\nEquipment requirements: Pentium 75\nMHz or faster computer with Windows\n95 or higher, 16 megabytes of RAM (32\nMB recommended), minimum of 250\nMB hard disk space, a 4X or faster CD-ROM drive, 14.4 baud or faster modem,\nmouse, and Internet access.\nPrice: $49 per month for daily downloads or an annual subscription of $545.\nTrial offer for VectorVest ProGraphics:\n$29.95 for a five-week trial. ProTrader\ntrial offer, $9.95 for 30 days.
Need help finding good buy\nor sell candidates? Looking for trading strategies to\nuncover just those stocks\nthat meet your personal\ntrading style? Want to find the strongest\nstocks in the strongest industry groups?\nHow about including a charting package filled with technical indicators to\nfurther refine and monitor trades?\nVectorVest ProGraphics and its new\nadd-on module, VectorVest ProTrader,\noffer all this and more."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-82-89-product-review-vectorvest-prographics-version-5-0-and-vectorvest-protrader-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-82-89-product-review-vectorvest-prographics-version-5-0-and-vectorvest-protrader-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-82-89-product-review-vectorvest-prographics-version-5-0-and-vectorvest-protrader-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v19093prodre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (90-93):Product Review:ELWAVE 6.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""ELWAVE 6.0
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
PROGNOSIS SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT\nPO Box 2944\n2601 CX Delft\nThe Netherlands\nPhone: +31-15-2123543\nFax: +31-15-2132558\nE-mail: info@prognosis.nl\nInternet: http://www.prognosis.nl\nProduct: End-of-day or real-time\nElliott wave analysis and projection\nsoftware.\nEquipment requirements: Windows\n95/98/2000 or NT 3.51 or higher, 16\nMB RAM, 50-to 100-MB hard disk\nspace, 1024 x 768 screen resolution,\ndata in MetaStock or ASCII file format\nor other supported formats.\nPrice: Elwave Basic (end-of-day),\n$245; upgrade to intraday module,\n$300; upgrade to automatic, $450;\nupgrade to trading signals module,\n$300; upgrade to target clusters\nmodule, $250. Scanning module,\n$450.
Elliott wave analysis has always been associated with\ncomplexity and reserved\nonly for technical analysis\nexperts. Wave patterns\nhave been found to be useful in predicting trend reversals, but unfortunately,\nattempting to manually identify the various waves is a tedious task often leading\nto erroneous conclusions.
The purpose of ELWAVE 6.0 is to\neliminate the need to count these wave\npatterns manually by completely automating the entire process. It is a complete Elliott wave analysis program that\nanalyzes wave degrees, generates a list\nof alternatives, summarizes the results\nof specific patterns,displays probable\ntargets based on Fibonacci ratios, and\ndisplays the expected path of price action. Various modules of the product\nare available. These include the basic,\nintraday, automatic, trading signals, and\ntarget clusters module."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-90-93-product-review-elwave-6-0-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-90-93-product-review-elwave-6-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-90-93-product-review-elwave-6-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv195t,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap9sep20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (95-97,113): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Tips
This month's selection of Traders' Tips include Omega Research Easy Language code for the Hilbert period, March issue; MetaStock, TradingSolutions' EasyLanguage, NeuroShell Trader, Byte Into The Marktet, and Technifilter Plus code for \""Squelch Those Whipsaws\""; and WaveWi$e formulas to compute and chart fixed-length cycles."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-95-97-113-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-95-97-113-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-95-97-113-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv198t,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap9sep20"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.18:9 (98-105): Traders’ Resource: Advisory Services"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Resource: Advisory Services
Advisory services are all over the place, as this listing shows. You have plenty of choice and plenty of price points to consider.
One key factor is whether the outfit you’re checking out is a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) or a registered\nCommodity Trading Advisor (CTA). Though it doesn’t weed out the foolish advice, the act of registration puts the person or persons under the government’s scrutiny. In this listing, filled in by the companies themselves, you’ll find RIAs and/or CTAs in the first part, with nonregistered advisories and other advisory-type services in the latter part.
If it’s trading advice you seek, then track records are\nessential, preferably records monitored by third parties. References should also be checked and if publications are involved, back issues should be scanned. Even then, a lengthy observation period following the advisor’s rationale and recommendations is prudent. Commit money to trades only when you are ready to follow the advice thoroughly: you’ll only have yourself to blame if you cherry-pick trades and come up with results differing from the advisor’s."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-98-105-traders-resource-advisory-services-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""201""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-98-105-traders-resource-advisory-services-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-18-9-98-105-traders-resource-advisory-services-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c01-math-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:1 (11-11): Mathematician's Viewpoint. by ANTHONY WARREN PH.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Mathematician's Viewpoint.\nby ANTHONY WARREN PH.D.
In this initial article the author will describe his viewpoint on technical analysis and the value of\ncomputer based algorithms for enhancing one's chances of success in stock or commodity trading. We\nwill also outline a planned series of articles covering topics such as Fourier Analysis for Fun and Profit,\nData Filtering for the Masses, Do Trend Channels Really Exist?, and The Threefold Path to Forecasting.\n(Titles are Fictitious)
The main problem of trading is in developing systematic rules for managing the unpredictability of the\nmarketplace. Since price fluctuations invariably contain a random component, there is no analytic method\nor system which will guarantee success on any single, individual trade. Rather, one must be content with\ntrading methods that optimize one's chances for success on the average. Thus, security trading is very\nsimilar to that of playing a game of chance. An experienced bridge player, for example, will always bid a\ngiven hand in the same way, even though a bid may succeed one time and fail another, due to the\ndistribution of the remaining cards."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-11-11-mathematician-s-viewpoint-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-11-11-mathematician-s-viewpoint-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-11-11-mathematician-s-viewpoint-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c01-integ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:1 (12-14): Integrated Systems Approach To Technical Commodity Analysis by JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Integrated Systems Approach To Technical\nCommodity Analysis\nby JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK
when I first became interested in commodity markets, it was my great fortune to read the works of and\nspeak with several of the most lucid teachers of market science and strategy. Each of these teachers had\nmethods which were profoundly logical in their approach. In the early stages of my learning curve (which\nin this business never seems to flatten out), I became aware of two trading tools which provided me with\nthe idea of a structure that lead to my \""ultimate commodity trading tool.\"" One of these was the\nSibbet-Hadady Charts, or more importantly, the concept behind them which was to use several indicators\nfor trading. It seemed like a very rational approach. The other idea was the very expensive computer\nsystem which had the capability of displaying charts on a TV screen eliminating the need for shuffling\nthrough a lot of paper. I decided to take the best of both of these concepts and create a real-time computer\nsystem that would provide all of the indicators one would want to watch, and allow for the flexibility to\nmodify the indicators, as needed, in my research."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-12-14-integrated-systems-approach-to-technical-commodity-analysis-by-john-e-rosenstock-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-12-14-integrated-systems-approach-to-technical-commodity-analysis-by-john-e-rosenstock-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-12-14-integrated-systems-approach-to-technical-commodity-analysis-by-john-e-rosenstock-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c01-totrad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:1 (15-17): To Trade of Not to Trade (or how I done it) by JACK K. HUTSON, EDITOR"",""caption-linebreaks"":""To Trade or Not to Trade (or how I done it)\nby JACK K. HUTSON
The format of sharing trading experiences is an easy way for Technical Analysis Group members, as\nwell as others, to tell how they used chart work and technical analysis in the day to day trading of stocks\nor commodities.
One of my approaches to trading is as follows: This story begins around the first of the year, 1982. Pork\nBellies had just made one of its abrupt ninety degree reversals which started a spectacular Bull market. At\nthat time I was attracted to the chart because the reversal was so sharp — and the only side of the market\nto be on was the long side. On January 14th, I saw what looked like a good point to go long.\nUnfortunately I sat and watched. That trade would have taken me to the 5th of February for about 6 cents\nor $2200 net profit per contract.
For you new traders I would like to bring this sort of short-term trade into perspective. Commodity\n'contracts' are bought and sold only on margin, much like securities may be bought. As with securities\nthat are bought on margins, and a profit taken, it seems appropriate to compute a percent profit based on\nyour out-of-pocket expense (i.e. your margin). At any rate the numbers sound much better when looked at\nfrom this point of view and this IS my story."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-15-17-to-trade-of-not-to-trade-or-how-i-done-it-by-jack-k-hutson-editor-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-15-17-to-trade-of-not-to-trade-or-how-i-done-it-by-jack-k-hutson-editor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-15-17-to-trade-of-not-to-trade-or-how-i-done-it-by-jack-k-hutson-editor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c01-forecas-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:1 (18-18): Forecasting Commodity Prices Using ARIMA by ERIC WEISS, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Forecasting Commodity Prices Using ARIMA\nby ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.
Back in December 1981, J. Louis Anon wrote an article in Commodities called \""Catch Short Term\nProfits using ARIMA'' and touched off a minor revolution in forecasting commodity and stock option\nprices with his claims that ARIMA could forecast prices within 1.5 percent.
I had written an ARIMA package for statisticians who have an Apple II (or III), which was the only one\nfor a microcomputer. Anon learned of this and referred customers who did not want to use a large\nmainframe computer (such as the one you can buy time on from his employer, Chase Econometrics) to\nme. Talking with potential customers, it became clear that the Anon article failed to answer many of their\nquestions. It also became obvious that the original package had to be modified for traders to be able to\nuse easily."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-18-18-forecasting-commodity-prices-using-arima-by-eric-weiss-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-18-18-forecasting-commodity-prices-using-arima-by-eric-weiss-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-18-18-forecasting-commodity-prices-using-arima-by-eric-weiss-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c01-hand-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:1 (19-19): Handling Market Reactions by JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Handling Market Reactions\nby JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK
All markets exhibiting prolonged price trends invariably have reactions against the trend. These\nreactions can be of short or long duration and can retrace small or large portions of the preceding swing.\nThey can be very sharp reversals or have periods of congestion prior to the retracement. The question is:\nHow are these reactions anticipated, measured, and taken advantage of? One very excellent method used\nin my computer analysis of market reactions is the momentum concept. This theory is based on market\nvelocity and can be aptly described as \""the steam in the boiler\"" method. The most difficult part of\nworking with reactions is determining when they are over. Momentum is ideal for this purpose. The\nmarket to be measured must first be tuned to is dominant cycle. Measuring from tops to tops or bottoms\nto bottoms and halving this figure will produce a workable factor. For example, say our cycle is 20 days.\nThe price today is compared with the price 20 days ago. If it is higher than 20 days ago, it is plotted\nabove a base line. If lower, it is plotted below the base line. Using silver as an example, if today's close is\n10 cents higher than 20 days ago, a point is put 10 points over the base line. The next day may be only 5\ncents higher than 20 days ago, so a point is put 5 cents over the base line. This continues for each\nconsecutive day, plotting points either above or below the base line. This chart can yield two very\nimportant bits of information: 1) When the reaction is over; and 2) When the main trend will resume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-19-19-handling-market-reactions-by-john-e-rosenstock-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-19-19-handling-market-reactions-by-john-e-rosenstock-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-19-19-handling-market-reactions-by-john-e-rosenstock-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c01-whate-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:1 (20-20): What Else Does It Do? by STEVE ROSS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What Else Does It Do?\nby STEVE ROSS
More and more people are investing in personal computers. But personal computers are often\npurchased with only one or two real applications in mind. Many personal computer owners are not\nprogrammers, and have no intention of learning to program now, or in the future.
As a programmer, I can sympathize with anyone who would rather not. Good programming requires a\ntremendous investment of time, and frustration. The frustration never seems to completely go away. The\nquestion many non-programmers are asking themselves is what else can that nicely packaged machine do\nfor me?
Once, the personal computer was only for the \""hobbyist\"" -- a person who enjoyed programming\neverything from the ground up. Now, there are numerous firms who specialize in putting together\npackaged programs for a new market of people who want to use computers, but are not inclined to do the\nprogramming.
The emergence of these software packages has opened a new vista for personal computing.\nUnfortunately, many people are unaware of what all these programs can do for them, and even for those\nwho do see the potential, selecting the right one from the jungle of offerings is intimidating, to say the\nleast!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-20-20-what-else-does-it-do-by-steve-ross-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-20-20-what-else-does-it-do-by-steve-ross-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-20-20-what-else-does-it-do-by-steve-ross-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c01-newtic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:1 (21-22): The New Ticker-Tape by CHARLES F. KRINKE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The New Ticker-Tape\nby CHARLES F. KRINKE
THERE IS ONLY ONE SIDE OF THE MARKET AND IT IS NOT THE BULL SIDE OR THE BEAR\nSIDE, BUT THE RIGHT SIDE.\n--JESSE LIVERMORE
These words from one of the world's great traders are even more appropriate today as we have recently\nseen the largest increase in the Dow Jones Average in one single day in history. This day, August 17,\n1982, the Dow shot up 38.81 points and The Wall Street Journal described the trading as a 'buying panic'.\nWith a flood of buying pushing the volume to more than 92 million shares, the new S&P futures contract\nwas limit up at its 500 TIC limit for the first time since it began trading. Those futures traders who had\naccess to real time computer 'TIC BY TIC' analysis had an edge over their counterparts who were using\nolder methods of technical analysis.
Charting of trends has been with us for some time, but only recently has the personal computer been\navailable which can do this drudgery and allow the trader time to think and plan instead of plot points.\nParticularly on a day like this one, a method of charting and discerning trends in seconds is of value.\nEarlier charting methods for day trading had consisted of plotting by hand the price at the end of a fixed\ntime interval. Usually this interval was 5 or 15 minutes. The interval had more to do with the fatigue of\nthe person rather than any market indicators. Improvements on the hand plotting method consisted of\ndedicating an expensive mainframe computer with a special plotting machine to generate such charts.\nUnfortunately, in the trading of a commodity such as S&P or KANSAS CITY VALUE LINE, a five\nminute picture is way too slow to make the trading decisions required to make a profit today. The 'TIC\nBY TIC' method of plotting futures prices is a solution to this problem of speed and real time. Previously,\nthe fastest charting techniques were capable of producing 1 minute bar charts but unfortunately, such\ngraphs do not show clearly enough the price trends in the fast moving futures market. The 'TIC BY TIC'\nmethod of analyzing the market provides a more flexible method of analysis and is currently used by\nseveral traders and brokers for their financial benefit."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-21-22-the-new-ticker-tape-by-charles-f-krinke-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-21-22-the-new-ticker-tape-by-charles-f-krinke-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-1-21-22-the-new-ticker-tape-by-charles-f-krinke-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c02-techa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:2 (25-25): Technical Analysis Information. by JACK K. HUTSON, EDITOR"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical Analysis Information.\nby JACK K. HUTSON, EDITOR
INTRODUCTION
We would like to take this opportunity to thank all of our subscribers for their encouragement and\nsupport, and Tim Slater, of COMPU TRAC, who made it all possible. The initial set up of a magazine\nhas proven to be an interesting experience, one that I am sure any masochist would enjoy. The idea first\ncame to mind almost two years ago shortly after the first COMPU TRAC seminar (Feb. '81) in New\nOrleans. I did not attend the seminar, but did have an opportunity to listen to tapes of the conference. One\nof the members at the seminar brought up the idea of a User's Group that, I felt, had a great deal of merit.\nThe single most appealing thing about a User's Group is the ability to focus and draw together each\nothers' experiences and thus learn without actually doing. Of course there are limits to what one may\nlearn from reading or listening to someone elses good or bad trading techniques, but these shared\nexcursions into the past could just be enough to warn or signal one to be alert to possible pitfalls (as well\nas opportunities). In the first sample issue of \""Technical Analysis\"" I wrote an article under the general\ncategory of 'past experiences'. This will be a regular feature titled \""Anatomy of a Trade''. In \""Anatomy of\na Trade\"" we will publish a case history of a trade, winning or losing, describing the traders thought\nprocesses before, during and after. In this way we, as a group, will profit from others' knowledge."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-25-25-technical-analysis-information-by-jack-k-hutson-editor-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-25-25-technical-analysis-information-by-jack-k-hutson-editor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-25-25-technical-analysis-information-by-jack-k-hutson-editor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c02-minig-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:2 (26-28): A MiniGuide to Fourier Spectrum Analysis by ANTHONY WARREN, PH.D./STAFF WRITER"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A MiniGuide to Fourier Spectrum Analysis\nby ANTHONY WARREN, PH.D./STAFF WRITER
The basic idea behind Fourier Analysis of time series is to decompose the data into a sum of sinusoids\nof varying cycle length, each cycle being a fraction of a common or fundamental cycle length. (For\nexample, figure 1 shows a time series consisting of a linear trend and two major cycles, and figure 2\nshows the decomposition into component sinusoids.) Originally, cyclic analysis was applied to physical\nphenomena to describe the behavior of complex vibrations, as for example, the multiple vibrations\ncreated by plucking a stringed instrument. The analysis of such systems is elegantly described by the\nbehavior of the longest or fundamental cycle, and the response to the first, second and higher order\nharmonics of the fundamental. Later, Fourier and others extended this analysis and showed that any finite\ndata segment or curve could be approximated arbitrarily well by a series of sinusoids, each of which is\nperiodic over the data interval. This method is the basis of Fourier Analysis of sampled data (time series)\nand of conventional spectrum analysis. (Note: the Fourier approximation of a curve or time series is\nperiodic, even if the data is not!)
In order to understand Fourier Spectrum Analysis we briefly review the properties of an individual\nsinusoid. A sinusoid may be uniquely characterized at any point in time by its amplitude or maximum\nvalue, by its frequency or rate of vibration, and by its phase. (See figure 3.) The period or cycle length of\nthe sinusoid is the number of trading days per year (assume one year is 260 trading days) divided by the\nfrequency, i.e. a sinusoid with a frequency of 10 cycles per year has a period of 260 / 10 = 26 days.\nFourier analysis decomposes the data into a sum of sinusoids of appropriate amplitude, frequency, and\nphase. Fourier Spectrum analysis is a condensation of this data transform, whereby the amplitude squared\nor power in each sinusoid is plotted versus each sinusoid frequency. (Phase information is thus lost in the\nspectrum representation of the data.) For example, the amplitude spectrum of the cyclic data in figure 1\nconsists of two data spikes at appropriate frequencies, as shown in figure 4."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-26-28-a-miniguide-to-fourier-spectrum-analysis-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-26-28-a-miniguide-to-fourier-spectrum-analysis-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-26-28-a-miniguide-to-fourier-spectrum-analysis-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c02-fastf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:2 (29-31): Fast Fourier Transform by ANTHONY WARREN, PH.D./STAFF WRITER"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fast Fourier Transform\nEDITOR'S NOTE:
To improve program readability the subroutine listed here has been enhanced by a BASIC language list\nformatter. We hope that this will prove helpful. The assignment statement 'LET' and indentations are not\nrequired for most BASIC interpreters. The program flow-of-control is much clearer by observing that\nloop operations, such as, FOR-NEXT are indented so the FOR and NEXT are directly above one another.
This program has been provided, to subscribers on record as of January 31, 1983, FREE of charge, ready\nto run from within the Compu Trac system. One need only use the Apple II utility FID (File Developer)\nto move the text file named STUDY.30 to any Compu Trac data disks. The file PROC.30 may also be\nmoved, for an example of a Procedure (number 30) using Fourier analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-29-31-fast-fourier-transform-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-29-31-fast-fourier-transform-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-29-31-fast-fourier-transform-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c02-usfou-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:2 (32-35): Using Fourier by JACK K. HUTSON"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Fourier\nby JACK K. HUTSON
Joseph Fourier (1768-1830) (pronounced \""fooryay'') was a French mathematician and inventor of\nFourier analysis. His work helped show the way to expressing periodic curves or functions by a sum of\nsines and cosines. These simple functions are easy for our computer to evaluate and project into the\nfuture. Many natural physical phenomena are oscillatory, that is repeating over and over again, much like\nthe Markets.
The Markets are not a function in the mathematical sense, but do seem to go up and down over and over\nagain. During the late 1960's a number of Fast Fourier Transforms methods were divised to 'transform'\ntime dependent data, such as the daily market close, to frequency. The frequency Vs. amplitude squared\nis referred to as the 'Power or Transformation Spectrum'. A typical plot of a 'Transformation Spectrum' is\nshown in Figure 1. The plot shows which frequency has the most relative impact on daily (weekly,\nmonthly) closes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-32-35-using-fourier-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-32-35-using-fourier-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-32-35-using-fourier-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c02-movavg-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:2 (36-38): Moving Averages"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving Averages
In our studies of stock or commodity time series data, i.e. a stream of successive daily closes (highs,\nlows, volume), we are constantly reminded of moving averages and their application. A moving average\nis one of the simplest and most often used smoothing or filtering methods available. All that is required is\nthat one choose a number of days, N, that you intend to average your data by and plot that average\ncoincident with the last day of data.
MATHEMATICALLY:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-36-38-moving-averages-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-36-38-moving-averages-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-36-38-moving-averages-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c02-arima-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:2 (40-43): ARIMA Forecasting by ERIC WEISS, PH.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""ARIMA Forecasting\nby ERIC WEISS, PH.D.
In the October 1982 of Technical Analysis, I discussed Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average\n(ARIMA) and why it is such an accurate forecasting technique. In this article, I'll discuss how to build an\nARIMA model using typical software and present some examples from my program for microcomputers\nsuch as the Apple ][, EASI/ ARIMA. Most other ARIMA programs running on large mainframe\ncomputers use a similar technique, although the commands are a little different.
The approach I like best was developed and popularized by Box and Jenkins at The University of\nWisconsin and The University of Lancaster (England), respectively. They have had such a major role in\nARIMA that it is frequently called Box-Jenkins. Their approach identifies an appropriate model,\nestimates it, runs diagnostic to make sure that it works as it should and then uses the model for\nforecasting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-40-43-arima-forecasting-by-eric-weiss-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-40-43-arima-forecasting-by-eric-weiss-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-2-40-43-arima-forecasting-by-eric-weiss-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c03-intra-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:3 (47-47): The Intra Day Analyst A Report by TIMOTHY C. SLATER/President, Intra Day Analyst Company"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Intra Day Analyst — A Report\nby TIMOTHY C. SLATER/President, Intra Day Analyst Company
The last version of The Intra Day Analyst has been in the field for five months. During this time, it has\nundergone several revisions responding to users requests for modifications. With the exception of a few\nminor \""bugs\"" (since reprogrammed), it has been trouble-free. Now that it is in wide use, I offer my\nobservations and suggestions.
1. A trader should first be accomplished at inter-day trading before attempting to trade intra-day. On the\nface of it, this seems like a rather simple statement, but the feedback from users reinforces this basic\nfeeling. Just because you are closer to the market does not mean that you will trade better. The fact is\nyou may trade worse if your emotions and psyche are not well attuned to trading.
2. Do not attempt to narrow the time window to the degree that the natural ''noise\"" which occurs in all\nmarkets will interrupt and interfere with both the studies and the visual chart. It has been interesting to\ntalk to prospective users who insist that they want to follow Tic by Tic. I explain that they can do so\nby updating a chart every three seconds using IDA on a variable time length bar chart. They start to\nuse the program and frequently call me to admit that I counseled them correctly in the first place. They\nquickly lost their interest in every Tic and for the most part were using ten and fifteen minute bars to\nguide them in trading. (A ten minute chart will display two full days of trading.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-47-47-the-intra-day-analyst-a-report-by-timothy-c-slater-president-intra-day-analyst-company-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-47-47-the-intra-day-analyst-a-report-by-timothy-c-slater-president-intra-day-analyst-company-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-47-47-the-intra-day-analyst-a-report-by-timothy-c-slater-president-intra-day-analyst-company-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c03-gann-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:3 (48-51): GANN by CURTIS ARNOLD"",""caption-linebreaks"":""GANN\nby CURTIS ARNOLD
The system I am going to demonstrate is based on some of W.D. Gann's works. For those of you who\nare not familiar with Gann, he was a legendary stock and commodity trader who purportedly made over\n50 million dollars in the markets using his unique mathematical trading techniques.
The trading method I have developed is based on two of Gann's most basic tools—his 1´1 or 45 degree\nangle and his trend line indicator. Refer to examples 1 and 2.
Angles can be used to determine the strength of the market from a previous top or bottom. The 45 degree\nangle or 1´1 as Gann called it, is the most important angle because it divides space and time into equal\nparts. As long as the market stays above the 45 degree angle drawn from a previous bottom, it is in a\nstrong position and indicates higher prices. Likewise, as long as the market remains below the 45 degree\nangle drawn from a previous top, it's in a weak position and indicates lower prices. Question: How do\nyou know when a top or bottom has been made from which you can draw your 45 degree angle? This is\nwhere the trend line indicator comes into play. Refer to Trend line indicator, examples 1 and 2."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-48-51-gann-by-curtis-arnold-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-48-51-gann-by-curtis-arnold-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-48-51-gann-by-curtis-arnold-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c03-cyclt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:3 (52-57): Cyclic Timing by JOHN HERRICK"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cyclic Timing\nby JOHN HERRICK
The concept of cyclic timing can be applied to most charting systems, including the most sophisticated\nanalytical systems; such as, oscillators. It is not adaptable to the Swing Vector System, because the\npassage of time is not laid out horizontally on that kind of chart.
I urge you to give this new concept a fair test. I have discovered that cyclic timing will eliminate almost\nall signals that do not produce profitable moves. This concept has the probability of improving any\ncharting system that produces graphic buy and sell signals.
Those of us who have used cyclic analysis of commodity-futures price movements, for some time, have\nbecome convinced that futures prices will move upward after the prices have formed a cyclic trough\n(bottom price), of a correctly chosen major cycle; EVEN during an over-all, general, bear market\ncondition. The extent of the upward move of the prices depends a great deal on the kind of market then in\nforce (bull, bear, or nowhere sideways).
Well, it doesn't require much mental effort to reason that futures prices will move downward; a little, a\nlot, or a break-even amount; after the prices have formed a midcycle crest of a correctly chosen major\ncycle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-52-57-cyclic-timing-by-john-herrick-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-52-57-cyclic-timing-by-john-herrick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-52-57-cyclic-timing-by-john-herrick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c03-goldb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:3 (58-59): Gold: Bull or Bear Market? by JESSE H. THOMPSON"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Gold: Bull or Bear Market?\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON
How to use a monthly swing chart to determine\nmajor trend.
Before you attempt to answer the question, it is imperative to first define which trend you consider to\nbe the greater trend. For in the crosscurrents of markets exist several trends coexisting over variable time\nperiods. To one person an upmove lasting several days is a bull market while to another the very same\nmove is considered a normal corrective rally within an ongoing bear market of longer duration in time.\nTherefore, first determine what you define as a bonified bull or bear market.
As a general rule, the longer term, more established trends are easier to trade. Most of the consistently\nsuccessful market operators of past and present, such as W.D. Gann, Jesse Livermore, Ben Daugherty,\nhave maintained that the greater swings are most profitable. Since this writer has no sustainable\nobjections to this premise nor do I doubt its validity, we will accept it as fact."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-58-59-gold-bull-or-bear-market-by-jesse-h-thompson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-58-59-gold-bull-or-bear-market-by-jesse-h-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-58-59-gold-bull-or-bear-market-by-jesse-h-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c03-anat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:3 (60-62): Anatomy of a Trade by JACK K. HUTSON"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Anatomy of a Trade\nby JACK K. HUTSON
All you have to do to be successful is follow the advice you give to others. -- The Scottish Rite Torch.
WEEDING OUT THE TRASH
During a daily course of market review we produce a number of computer studies to supplement our\nchart and fundamental rumor collection. These daily studies are augmented by a more thorough weekly\nlook at the past price movement over a great length of time. From this weekly detail review of historical\ndaily land weekly) price change we determine which markets are in an advantageous trading position. For\nexample, in the commodities markets we generally analyze 26 contracts and 10 associated cash markets\nby first studying 14 perpetual contracts. In a future article we will further explain the derivation of this\ntype of 'perpetual' contract concept (Ref: Commodities, Mar 83, p. 72). From these 14 contracts we are\nable to filter down to 5 or 6 that appear to be in 'advantageous trading positions'."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-60-62-anatomy-of-a-trade-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-60-62-anatomy-of-a-trade-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-60-62-anatomy-of-a-trade-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c03-comtra-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:3 (65-66): The CompuTrac Corvus Hard Disk by JOHN ROSENSTOCK"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The CompuTrac(R) Corvus(R) Hard Disk\nby JOHN ROSENSTOCK
What a machine! How would you like to have instant on-line access to thousands of pages of data? If\nyou trade across the board, you're looking at 35 to 50 commodities, including London markets. Each\nmarket has at least 3 or 4 key contracts, so we're talking about 100 to 200 contracts to watch.
For a commercial application, Winchester disk technology can't be beat (and won't be obsolete for at least\n3 or 4 years). The disk is a sealed unit with spinning platters that store 10 or 20 megabytes. It is very\nreliable, doesn't wear out, and is designed to be left on and spinning all the time.
The CompuTrac(R) configuration puts programs on platter one, and data on platter two. The platters are\nreferred to as drive one and two, just like when you use floppy discs. However, each drive has about 65\n\""volumes\"", each with the storage capacity of one floppy!
My application for a Corvus(R) was in connection with a project I did for a London firm that wanted to\nhave a machine to trade all markets. The multi-volume capability of the Corvus(R) is ideal for this. I\nutilized 49 volumes of a Corvus(R) 20 megabyte hard disk for commodity price data. This allowed the\nstorage of 3 to 6 contracts of one commodity per volume. The lead contract had life of contract data over\na year long, and the deferred contracts somewhat less. Building a data base this big takes a while, since\nall contract files have to be opened and then loaded."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-65-66-the-computrac-corvus-hard-disk-by-john-rosenstock-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-65-66-the-computrac-corvus-hard-disk-by-john-rosenstock-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-65-66-the-computrac-corvus-hard-disk-by-john-rosenstock-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c03-person-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:3 (66-67): Personal Computers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Personal Computers
The computer is no longer just a large, complex, expensive object that major corporations blame when\nthey screw up your order. Thanks to the miracle of electronics, today's computer is a large, complex,\nexpensive object that you can have in your own home.
If you read your major trend-spotting magazines such as Time and Newsweek, you know that in recent\nyears virtually every man, woman, and child in the United States has bought a personal home computer.\nYou constantly see articles explaining how ordinary people like yourself are finding all kinds of handy\nuses for computers around the home:
Bob and Doris Pullet of Full Horse, Texas, use their computer for many things, such as keeping track\nof what kind of soup they have in their pantry. 'It has been a real boon to us,' reports Doris. 'In the old\ndays, we would have to open the pantry door and manually look inside to see whether we had, say\nchicken gumbo. But now all I do is turn on the computer and punch in a few simple commands, and\nwithin a matter of seconds the computer says 'CHKN GMB/2;.87;.74,' which lets me know that we\nhave two cans of chicken gumbo with a depreciated value of 87 cents, or 74 cents adjusted for\ninflation. And Bob is working on a program that will keep track of the good forks.'"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-66-67-personal-computers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-66-67-personal-computers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-66-67-personal-computers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c03-phil-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:3 (67-67): Philosophy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Philosophy
There is a great deal of expertise among our subscribership. This periodical collects letters and other\ninformation from subscribers and after a little rewriting, if needed, publishes the results. Documentation\nfor computer programs is intended to define how to operate the program, not how to interpret the results,\nwe will endeavor to help in this area. We will not be making specific trade recommendations, but rather\nsuggesting possible techniques that should help you reach your own decisions. The interpretation of\nresults will be based on observations, opinion and statistical correlation.
We collect technical analysis user ideas and conduct surveys of investors to ascertain Group\nrecommendations for Technical Analysis application. Our intent is to augment user application of\nexisting systems and provide a forum for publication of new or interdisciplinary techniques as well as\nreview software and hardware to determine compatibility and usefulness in trading or maintaining data\nabout tax and money management. This can prove to be a headache, to the average non-computer person,\ndue to printer settings or interface cards used. why buy software or hardware to find out that it does not\nwork well with your system. Some systems and computerized systems just give you a buy-sell point and\nexpect the trader to blindly throw money into the market. It takes a lot of nerve to chance losing $1,000\non a trade based on a complete unknown."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-67-67-philosophy-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-67-67-philosophy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-3-67-67-philosophy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c04-fibo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:4 (70-73): Fibonnacci Cycles by TUCKER J. EMMETT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fibonnacci Cycles\nby TUCKER J. EMMETT
The growth in popularity of my own technical application of the Fibonnacci mathematical series to the\nfutures markets the past ten years has been fairly remarkable, considering the amount of homework and\ntrading discipline requisite in the approach. But the predictive accuracy and logic behind this technical\nsystem, along with the method of checks and balances obtained from it, make the effort well worthwhile.
The Fibonnacci series is the basis of the \""Elliot Wave\"" and various forms of Elliot theory. While Elliot\ntheory is espoused by many analysts, it is understood by very few. My own application of the Fibonnacci\nseries evolves from a strict subdivision of the futures market into three distinct categories: Pattern,\nTime, and Ratio. I then require that each of these three categories have satisfied the essential framework\nof the Fibonnacci series before establishing a position. If only two out of the three categories fulfill their\nrequirement, a position can be established, but the reliability factor is smaller and consequently one\nshould commit funds less aggressively.
The Fibonnacci Series, discovered by the Italian mathematician Leonardo de Pisa in the 14th centruy, is\nas follows: 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,etc..., where each successive number in the series is the\nsum of the previous two numbers. The ratio between successive numbers can be seen to approach .618,\nthe so called \""Golden Mean\"" or \""Golden Ratio\"" of ancient Greek architecture. The three important ratios\nthe series provides us with are .618, 1, and 1.618."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-70-73-fibonnacci-cycles-by-tucker-j-emmett-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-70-73-fibonnacci-cycles-by-tucker-j-emmett-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-70-73-fibonnacci-cycles-by-tucker-j-emmett-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c04-data-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:4 (74-77): Data Filtering Methods For Technical Analysis by ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D./Technical Analysis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Data Filtering Methods For Technical Analysis\nby ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D./Technical Analysis staff writer
Data filtering methods such as moving averages are quite prevalent in many trading systems. In this\narticle we will discuss a methodology for selecting appropriate data filters based on Fourier spectrum\nanalysis, and the basics on how to use smoothing filters for trading decisions. In the course of this article\nwe will attempt to familiarize the reader with data filtering from a frequency domain point of view (i.e.\ncyclic). The reader need not be concerned with the mathematics of Fourier analysis, but should begin to\nappreciate this methodology as a powerful tool for understanding and applying many trading systems.
LINEAR FILTERING: FREQUENCY DOMAIN THEORY
Suppose we desire to apply data filtering to time series x(i) i=1...N, such as the stock market daily\ncloses. In general, a linear filter is defined by a fixed set of weights (w(j) j=1...M), where M is the length\nof the data filter. The output of the filter is a second time series"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-74-77-data-filtering-methods-for-technical-analysis-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-technical-analysis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-74-77-data-filtering-methods-for-technical-analysis-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-technical-analysis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-74-77-data-filtering-methods-for-technical-analysis-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-technical-analysis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c04-fini-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:4 (78-81): Finite Impulse Response Filter by ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D. with JACK K. HUTSON"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Finite Impulse Response Filter\nby ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D. with JACK K. HUTSON
Figure 1 and 2 show a comparison of computer output using Fourier analysis Power and then Amplitude\nplots. It can be seen that the Power Spectrum plot, which is Amplitude squared, makes it very easy to\ndiscern which cycles are significant and which are not. The Power Spectrum suggests that cycles with\nperiods of less than 20 days may not be important, in the long move. Figure 3 is an example of computer\noutput plotted from the following Finite Impulse Response (FIR) Filter subroutine using a Hanning\nweighted moving average. A 41 day Hanning weight was used based on the 20 day interpretation from a\nFourier Power Spectrum (i.e. N = 2M + 1 e.g. 2(20) + 1 = 41 days).
The subroutine may be expanded to incorporate any number of moving average weighting schemes\nbetween statements 1210 and 1230. This routine has been written to run using any computer that supports\nthe BASIC language and in addition a few extraneous variables (T$, P(?)) have been added to improve\ngraphic output if one is using the Compu Trac programming subsystem."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-78-81-finite-impulse-response-filter-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-with-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-78-81-finite-impulse-response-filter-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-with-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-78-81-finite-impulse-response-filter-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-with-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c04-liver-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:4 (82-85): The Livermore System by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Livermore System\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer
Livermore is one of those names you might hear floating around among the chatter and ticks inside the\nlocal brokerage office. Or maybe you will catch a reference to him in some obscure article or book. Just\nas the markets of the various exchanges are often mystifying, so too are many of the historical characters\nsurrounding the markets.
Jesse L. Livermore was one of those characters, passing in and out around the Wall Street of the\nl890-1940 period. The classic \""rags to riches\"" stereotype of this period. Humble beginnings as a New\nEngland \""dirt farmer\"", impoverished, uneducated, but gifted with a natural ability for numbers and\nmathematics and possessing an acute memory of figures. He died in 1940, impoverished, depressed, but\nhopefully greatly humbled and a lot wiser. In between were 30-40 years of spectacular trading in the\nstock, cotton and grain markets pulsating out of Wall Street. He amassed millions and lost millions\nseveral times. His name appeared often in the pages of the major newspapers and magazines of the time.\nIdolized and despised. \""Livermore Heads Bear Raid!\"" shouts one article and among the folks back home\nsitting around the standup radio conversing it wasn't uncommon to overhear someone swoon: \""If I only\nhad Livemmore's money!\""
His story is an educational one, for his ability to amass great fortunes in the market place was testimony\nto his understanding of the markets, while his ability to lose the same also testifies to the susceptibility of\nthe trader to the human element."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-82-85-the-livermore-system-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-82-85-the-livermore-system-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-82-85-the-livermore-system-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c04-head-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:4 (86-88): The Head and Shoulders Formation by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Head and Shoulders Formation\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer
Technical analysis as it is applied today to the anticipation and projection of impending price\nmovement of stocks or futures markets might be broken down into three major areas of study. These are:\n1) The study of price activity itself 2) the study of derivatives of price and 3) the study of internal\nindicators.
The study of price activity itself is generally of older vintage. The book, \""Technical Analysis of Stock\nTrends\"" by Edwards and Magee is a study of market formations and trends within this area. Many of the\nmethods employed by technical speculators around the turn of the century, involved the study of price\nactivity. Identifying market formations, point and figure methods and swing charts are examples of tools\nused in the study of price activity.
The study of derivatives of price as a method of technical analysis is currently very popular due to the\navailability of mechanical calculation devices such as the microprocessor. This area includes the use of\nmoving averages, oscillators, momentum indicators, etc. This is a relatively new field of technical\nanalysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-86-88-the-head-and-shoulders-formation-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-86-88-the-head-and-shoulders-formation-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-86-88-the-head-and-shoulders-formation-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c04-evol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:4 (89-89): The Evolving State of Technical Analysis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Evolving State of Technical Analysis
Leafing through a back issue of \""Success Farming\"" magazine the other day, I was quite surprised to run\nacross a fairly sophisticated article on the technical analysis of some of the meat and grain futures. The\npurpose of the article was apparently to educate and to provide a method of calculating hedging levels for\nsome of its subscribers. In fact, some of the Midwestern farmers I know, use words like \""Elliot wave or\n50% retracement\"" just as easily as they use \""heifer or grain combine.\"" At first, it sounded somewhat\nstrange to me, hearing all this technical jargon used so naturally. I always thought that farmers generally\nperceived the futures market more in terms of a fundamental rather than technical perspective. It\nemphasized to me just how pervasive the use of technical analysis of price activity has become in the\n1980's.
This widespread use of technical analysis relative to 10 or 20 years ago, seems to be a natural product of\nthe convergence of several factors. I once read a very interesting article that classified Americans as the\n\""engineers\"" of the world. Although we are not the only \""engineers\"" around as evidenced by the\ntremendous technological advances arising out of Japan and Western Europe, the fact still remains that\nwe have engineered a great portion of the major technological advances of the 20th century."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-89-89-the-evolving-state-of-technical-analysis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-89-89-the-evolving-state-of-technical-analysis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-89-89-the-evolving-state-of-technical-analysis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c04-appl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:4 (90-91): Applying ARIMA Forecasts by ERIC WEISS, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Applying ARIMA Forecasts\nby ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.
\""Applying ARIMA Forecasts\"" is an article continuing a series started in the October (82) and the\nJanuary (83) issues of Technical Analysis. AutoRegressive-lntegrated Moving Average(ARIMA) is a\nforecasting methodology based upon the techniques described by Box and Jenkins in their book: Time\nSeries Analysis, Forecasting and Control, published by Holden-Day, 1976, 2nd ed.
With understanding and time one may construct a model of a discrete statistical time series, such as the\nmarkets, that will forecast the future with known probable error.
To begin, let's use this example:
Variable: high
Sum of Squared Residuals: 44.76
Residual Variance: .75
Average Absolute Error: .65
Observations: 64
Degrees of Freedom: 60"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-90-91-applying-arima-forecasts-by-eric-weiss-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-90-91-applying-arima-forecasts-by-eric-weiss-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-4-90-91-applying-arima-forecasts-by-eric-weiss-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c05-crook-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:5 (103-104): Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens: Commodity Periodicals by FRED S. GEHM"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens:\nCommodity Periodicals\nby FRED S. GEHM
(The first of a regular feature column)
This is going to be a column of reviews of criticisms. It will be a consumer's guide to technical\nanalysis. This includes books, magazines, newsletters, seminars and other products.
Criticism is easy; any fool can criticize. However, responsible criticism is not easy. It is not easy to keep\nan open mind and, worse, it's almost impossible to know when your mind is not open. I have yet to meet\na bigot who didn't think he (or she) was the voice of reason, for example.
If it is impossible to be unbiased (and it may well be) it is at least possible to be fair. Therefore I will\nallow the author(s) or editor(s) of the items I review to respond to my criticisms in this column. They will\nbe given a word count limit and if the length of their responses is within the count they will not be edited.
Unfortunately, because of time constraints, I was unable to obtain any responses for this issue. So I have\ndecided in this first column to give brief reviews of several commodity publications. Many of these\npublications are quite valuable and worth a more leisurely review, which I hope to do in future issues. I\nalso plan to review stock market publications in a future issue."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-103-104-crooks-cranks-and-honest-citizens-commodity-periodicals-by-fred-s-gehm-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-103-104-crooks-cranks-and-honest-citizens-commodity-periodicals-by-fred-s-gehm-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-103-104-crooks-cranks-and-honest-citizens-commodity-periodicals-by-fred-s-gehm-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c05-good-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:5 (105-108): Good Trix by JACK K. HUTSON"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Good Trix\nby JACK K. HUTSON
A few years ago I decided to explore the possibility of using a small computer to take some of the\ndrudgery out of trading. The endless hours of maintaining and experimenting with chart and numerical\naids to transaction timing was infringing upon my trade decision process. I always felt that by taking just\na little time, and cranking out just one more wonderful oscillator or average, that my chances for a\nprofitable trade would be improved. In most cases all I did was reassure myself that I had examined most\nevery \""system\"" in my personal repertoire, but I had no idea whether this had actually improved my\ntrading. The one thing I was very sure about was that the time and effort required to make a trade\ndecision had jumped from minutes to hours. It was taking some of the fun out of trading.
My experience with computers started while I was still in college, using a teletype terminal linked via\ntelephone to a time-sharing computer service. My professor was a physicist who had been drafted into\nteaching a mathematics course about differential equations. The book he chose relied heavily on using a\ncomputer to help solve these 'equations'. Our kindly Physics professor thought it would do us a great deal\nof good to use the time-shared computer arrangement to further our understanding of differential\nequations. This process was complicated by the fact that the books' computer examples were written in a\ndialect called Fortran and our time-shared computer spoke a language called BASIC. On this desperate\nnote began my self-taught computer education.
After more than ten years of remote computer timeshared use, I decided it was about time to consider\nusing a computer in my own personal endeavors. The so called \""personal\"" computers had been on the\nmarket for about three years, by 1980, so I began to collect hardware information. I soon learned all about\nCPU's, disk drives and all the other new technology one could buy, and all about the wonderful speed\nthese machines promised."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-105-108-good-trix-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-105-108-good-trix-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-105-108-good-trix-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c05-natur-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:5 (110-111): The Nature of Price Resistance by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Nature of Price Resistance\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer
Most of us involved with speculative markets often are so preoccupied with \""effect\"", or price activity,\nthat we ignore \""cause.\"" But an understanding of cause can clarify our analysis of that all-important effect.
Basic cause might be defined as the ever-changing relationship between the forces of supply and demand.\nWe traders tend to think of commodity contracts only as speculative vehicles or abstractions. We tend to\nforget that the commodity contracts we so actively trade normally are a reflection of the actual physical\ngoods in which merchants are trading. As such, contract prices are closely tied to supply and demand.
Effect, or price activity, might be divided into two basic market classifications. These are a trending (bull\nor bear) market and a non-trending (consolidating) market. A trending market is one in which the forces\nof supply and demand are moving from a state of balance thru a state of imbalance. A consolidating\nmarket is moving from a state of imbalance thru a state of balance or equilibrium.
To the interactions of the two forces of supply and demand, we might add a third force, one which is\nconstantly interacting with the other two. We will call this third force \""resistance\"" (normally called\n\""support and resistance\""). Resistance acts as a neutralizing force to the combined effect of supply and\ndemand. A market that is trending upward or downward will usually react or consolidate near or at major\nresistance. A major consolidation in the form of a top or bottom is usually formed at an important\nresistance level. Price tends to vibrate or oscillate near resistance or sometimes will stop rather abrubtly\nat resistance and change trend."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-110-111-the-nature-of-price-resistance-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-110-111-the-nature-of-price-resistance-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-110-111-the-nature-of-price-resistance-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c05-comp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:5 (112-112): Computerizing Elliott by ROBERT R. PRECHTER, JR."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Computerizing Elliott\nby ROBERT R. PRECHTER, JR.
A ny discipline that can be explained and quantifed is ultimately programmable, and the Elloitt Wave\nPrinciple is no exception. In fact, many aspects probably could be computerized relatively easily.\nHowever, in attempting to program \""Elliott\"" in its entirety, we run into a problem, namely, the element\nthat is not easily programmable happens to be the most important and fundamental element of Elliott\nanalysis: wave counting. Wave counting precedes all other analysis under Elliott. If that aspect could be\nprogrammed, it would be easy to program the rest of Elliott wave analysis, including channeling,\nretracements and Fibonacci targeting.
The difficulty is that the standard in the Wave Principle is wave form, not time periodicity (as in cyclic\nanalysis), or even fixed time or price relationships within wave structures. Wave subdivisions of the same\ndegree often differ greatly in size and complexity, and can include variations such as extensions, diagonal\ntriangles and failures. Programming them would involve a tremendous number of \""If ... then's\""; and\ninstructing the computer to count waves in real time, considering all alternate possibilities, would require\na huge amount of statistical research that to date hasn't been done. The analyst would need to quantify\nthe probabilities of each structural shape occurring at each conceivable step in the progression of the\nmarket. Such research could take half a lifetime."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-112-112-computerizing-elliott-by-robert-r-prechter-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-112-112-computerizing-elliott-by-robert-r-prechter-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-112-112-computerizing-elliott-by-robert-r-prechter-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c05-dec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:5 (114-120): December Treasury Bonds by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""December Treasury Bonds\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer
Interest rate futures are always interesting to chart as well as to trade. Aside from the speculative aspects\nof interest rate futures, it is also valuable to know how much a lender is going to charge to let loose of his\ncash for awhile. For trading purposes the December and June Treasury Bond contracts are good vehicles\nto employ. I also find a quarterly Dow Jones 20 bond chart dating back to 1966 and a monthly chart of\nthe long term Treasuries (15 years or more) are helpful.
The following trades or positions were taken with a primary emphasis on staying in harmony with price\nand trend activity. The only tools used were: a monthly swing chart*, a weekly and daily bar chart, a daily\nswing chart, divisional factors of time, divisional factors of a price range and a basic understanding of\nprice formation and trend activity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-114-120-december-treasury-bonds-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-114-120-december-treasury-bonds-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-114-120-december-treasury-bonds-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c05-comm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:5 (120-122): Commodity Channel Index: Tool for Trading Cyclic Trends by DONALD R. LAMBERT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Commodity Channel Index: Tool for Trading\nCyclic Trends\nby DONALD R. LAMBERT
Reprinted from Commodities Magazine 1980 219 Parkade, Cedar Falls, IA 50613.
Many commodities exhibit some type of cyclical or seasonal price pattern. But, the commodity trader\nstill faces the problem of detecting when the regular price movements begin and end because climate and\nother real world conditions may affect their timing.
One method that can help spot these turns is the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), a recently developed\nindex which is somewhat akin to a \""standard score\"" in statistics. The CCI doesn't calculate cycle\nlengths— you must determine them yourself or rely on an advisory service—but is a timing tool that\nworks best with seasonal or cyclical contracts.
To be useful in cyclical markets, an index must examine current prices in the light of past prices but must\nnot allow data from the distant past to confuse present patterns. For this reason, the CCI uses a moving\naverage rather than an exponentially smoothed average as a benchmark against which to measure current\nprices.
The comparison of current prices to moving averages solves one problem by providing a moving\nreference point. But, it leaves another problem for the trader: While some commodities typically move\nonly a few cents each day, daily moves in others might be hundreds of cents. Rather than develop\nseparate rules to determine each commodity's fluctuations, some standardization technique had to be\nfound."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-120-122-commodity-channel-index-tool-for-trading-cyclic-trends-by-donald-r-lambert-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-120-122-commodity-channel-index-tool-for-trading-cyclic-trends-by-donald-r-lambert-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-120-122-commodity-channel-index-tool-for-trading-cyclic-trends-by-donald-r-lambert-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c05-sidebf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:5 (120-122): SIDEBAR: Four steps to calculate CCI"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Channel Index can help both stock and commodity traders detect when \""real world conditions,\"" such as climate, are affecting seasonal price patterns. The author explains how to calculate as well as use the CCI. By Donald R. Lambert
Four steps to calculate CCI
1.Compute today's \""typical\"" price using high low and close:\nX1 = 1/3 (H + L + C)
2. Compute a moving average of the N most recent typical prices:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-120-122-sidebar-four-steps-to-calculate-cci-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-120-122-sidebar-four-steps-to-calculate-cci-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-120-122-sidebar-four-steps-to-calculate-cci-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c05-log-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:5 (123-123): The Logarithmic Scale. by JACK K. HUTSON"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Logarithmic Scale.\nby JACK K. HUTSON
Semi-Logarithmic (ratio, proportion or percentage paper) graphic rulings are used when the analyst\nwants to compare percentage price changes rather than absolute price changes. By plotting the logarithm\nof price in lieu of price itself we are able to directly compare percentage change in price at the three\ndollar verses the thirty dollar level. Mathematically, if there is a fixed percentage change between two\npairs of prices the difference between the logarithms of the price will be equal.
When the logarithms of price rather than the actual price are graphed, a constant rise or fall in price will\nequal a constant profit (or loss) percentage change. It is well-documented that stock and commodity\nprices follow general rules of percentage directional moves and corrections. These can be followed easily\nusing a logarithmic price scale and measured directly from the chart.
Because of the time required to calculate logarithms, it is common practice to use graph paper that has a\nspecial logarithmic scale.
The logarithmic scale graph paper allows the trader to plot prices directly without calculating the\nlogarithm. The relation between a simple arithmetic price scale and a scale corresponding to it but\nprepared for plotting logarithms is shown in Example 2."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-123-123-the-logarithmic-scale-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-123-123-the-logarithmic-scale-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-123-123-the-logarithmic-scale-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c05-conf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:5 (98-102): Confessions of a Speculator: Why Losses Occur by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Confessions of a Speculator: Why Losses Occur\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON/ Technical Analysis staff writer
\""The Markets\"", whether envisioned as the stock markets, the futures markets or any of the myriad\nforms and reflections of price activity, are all somewhat compelling. Driven by hope, fear, greed,\ncuriosity or crowd psychology countless individuals gather around the exchanges of the world (or by\nproxy around their quote machines and computers), noting and participating in the constant movement of\nprices. Maybe it's the reflections of the future, cast in the shadows of price activity that compel so many.\nNevertheless, for some it is either a business or a serious hobby. If you are reading this article you\nprobably fall into one of the latter two categories. Whether you are a novice or an experienced speculator,\nit is good to remember that all of us are constantly falling prey to what W.D. Gann so aptly called \""the\nhuman element.\""
What we need is a preventative medicine, and applying technical methods when entering and exiting the\nmarket is a good start. Disciplined implementation of a technical method lessens the probability that you\nwill succumb to greed or fear. It is also highly beneficial to obey certain time worn rules and that is the\nsubject of this article.
One of the best professional speculators I have ever encountered made the following statement in relation\nto establishing a sound foundation for successful speculation: \""The most important thing is to: 1 ) Learn\nthe right rules, 2) Obey the rules, and, 3) Implement them consistently.\"" This applies to both general and\nspecific trading rules."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-98-102-confessions-of-a-speculator-why-losses-occur-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-98-102-confessions-of-a-speculator-why-losses-occur-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-5-98-102-confessions-of-a-speculator-why-losses-occur-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-tech-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (126-127): Technical Analysis by JACK K. HUTSON"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical Analysis\nby JACK K. HUTSON
Thank you for your very kind and in some cases flattering response to the \""Reader Service Form\""\npublished in Technical Analysis July 1983 issue. Feedback from you, our readers, helps guide both our\ngrowing staff and authors to what you would like to read about. In general, based on the forms received\nso far, our readers want to see more about trading technique application and theory presented in such a\nway that everyone can understand. It is probably apparent by now that some of our articles are not easy\nreading. In fact, to really get the most out of Technical Analysis the reader should study the material just\nas you would a college text. Usually by the time you see Technical Analysis articles they have gone\nthrough a number of changes that are intended to improve their readability. There still exists the\nprobability that the author and our editing will not clarify some things sufficiently for every reader.
The trader need not be a mathematician or computer programmer to make money in the markets. In fact,\nmy own experience has shown that if you cannot make money without a crutch, then with all the\nadvisors, computers and aides in the world you will never do much better than break even. If you, as a\ntrader, can financially \""live\"" through your first two dozen trades and show a net profit, then every issue of\nthis magazine should give you a means to help systemize your winnings and reduce losses. Since this is\nnot a news letter service written by one individuals the form and content of Technical Analysis varies\ngreatly. The only guidelines imposed on our authors' presentations are the editorial staff's very fallible\nideas as to what is good clear information and what is not."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-126-127-technical-analysis-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-126-127-technical-analysis-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-126-127-technical-analysis-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-myone-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (128-128): My One and Only Stock Market Recommendation by MERTON A. HILL"",""caption-linebreaks"":""My One and Only Stock Market\nRecommendation\nby MERTON A. HILL
My interest in the stock market developed some 40 years ago. My first purchase was 100 shares of\nBudd Manufacturing (builders of railroad cars and heavy machinery — Budd has since been acquired by\nThyssen AG, West Germany's steelmaker.)
Why I selected Budd for purchase I will never know — probably because it appeared to be acting well on\nthe market. . . This is in itself not necessarily a good reason for buying. It should be supported by sound\nbackground information. I was so green at this business I did not even know about brokers and brokerage\nhouses. I went to the bank where I had my account.
My banker disapproved of what I was doing but agreed to execute the purchase. I became the proud\npossessor of 100 shares of Budd Manufacturing at $11 per share plus brokerage.
The price of the stock gradually sagged to 8 (or perhaps it was 6.) I kept this stock for several years and\nfinally sold it at 18 without any feeling of spectacular achievement.
With a growing family and not a large income, I dabbled as much as I could afford. When the Syntex star\nbegan to rise I purchased 100 shares at 29 — sold at 43 — and watched it steadily rise to around 198 —\nand split. Much later it sagged to 28 and remembering my previous experience at 29, I promptly bought\n200 shares ... It slowly sagged to 18 where I sold. Did I get whacked! I should have kept this stock. At\nthis writing it is 33 and appears to be on the make, although the price fluctuates considerably."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-128-128-my-one-and-only-stock-market-recommendation-by-merton-a-hill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-128-128-my-one-and-only-stock-market-recommendation-by-merton-a-hill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-128-128-my-one-and-only-stock-market-recommendation-by-merton-a-hill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-tak-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (129-132): Taking Stock of Commodity Trading Methods by DR. BASIL VENITIS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Taking Stock of Commodity Trading Methods\nby DR. BASIL VENITIS
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis is price analysis based on basic economic, political, and ecological factors.\nThese factors include supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather, government policy, and so forth.\nFundamental Analysis is different from Technical Analysis, which is based on psychological factors such\nas open interest, trade volume, price chart formations, commitments of large commercial houses, trends,\nand the like.
In Fundamental Analysis, the present price of a commodity can be expressed as a function of relatively\nfew variables, namely the price of the commodity at the previous stage, the present demand, the Treasury\nBill interest rate, the inflation rate, and the inventory change between the last two stages. The inventory\nchange is equal to the difference between supply and demand. For agricultural commodities the inventory\nchange is usually calculated as the new crop plus the old crop carryover, plus imports, minus domestic\nutilization, minus exports. (Note: For grain the government supports prices by buying large amounts of\ngrain or financing grain supplies through government loans. Therefore, for grain only, we have to adjust\nthe previous figures of inventory change by adding the government sales for domestic use and subtracting\nthe amount of grain under government loan.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-129-132-taking-stock-of-commodity-trading-methods-by-dr-basil-venitis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-129-132-taking-stock-of-commodity-trading-methods-by-dr-basil-venitis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-129-132-taking-stock-of-commodity-trading-methods-by-dr-basil-venitis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-mark-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (133-134): Market Blueprints by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Blueprints\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer
A method or system for trading can be likened to a building in that its viability depends on its\nfoundation and structure. Ideally the cornerstones of this building will be purpose, preparation and\nplanning. That is, its important first to define the express purpose of a developing method, and then to\nadequately prepare yourself to properly develop and implement your plan on a practical basis. The\nframework of the building is composed of the specific parts of the plan.
DEFINING A PURPOSE for your blueprint, is not as simple as it immediately appears. The most\nobvious and most commonly expressed purposes are either to pick tops and bottoms or to attempt to\nmeasure the trend. But in actual practice, neither one is good enough from the investor's viewpoint. Many\nan investor has been right on the market and has still gone broke. The reasons are many; one overtrades\nor overleverages himself, fails to control risk when entering the market, gets out too soon, etc. So in\nactual practice a trader should attempt to do more than simply pick tops or bottoms, or measure the trend.\nA higher goal is to specifically limit losses, to allow profits to run,to protect accumulated profits, and\nfinally, to attempt to enhance the probabilities that all this can be accomplished.
This goal sounds so simple and straightforward. but anyone associated with today's investment markets\ncan attest that all of this is much easier spoken than accomplished."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-133-134-market-blueprints-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-133-134-market-blueprints-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-133-134-market-blueprints-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-mod-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (134-135): Modern Hedging For Everyone by DR. BASIL VENITIS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Modern Hedging For Everyone.\nby DR. BASIL VENITIS
The business world is entering a new period full of excitement, which one day might well be called the\nEra of Hedging. When this period matures, everyone in the free enterprise system will probably be\ndirectly or indirectly involved in hedging!
What is hedging? It is the arbitrage* between futures and their corresponding spot commodities financial\ninstruments, or services. The classical hedger assumes a futures position exactly opposite to his spot\nposition. For him, hedging is a sort of insurance against severe price fluctuations. On the other hand, the\nmodern hedger not only seeks protection from price fluctuations, but he also tries to profit from the\nvariations of basis, which is the difference between futures and spot prices. The modern hedger\nspeculates on the basis variation by placing and lifting the hedge several times on part of his inventory.
Under normal circumstances, the futures prices are higher than the spot prices due to carrying cost. This\nmarket is called a normal market or a carrying charge market or contango. However, when traders\nare worried about possible shortages, then the futures are discounted to spots, and this is called an\ninverted market. Of course, when the futures contract matures, the spot price is almost equal to the\nfutures price."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-134-135-modern-hedging-for-everyone-by-dr-basil-venitis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-134-135-modern-hedging-for-everyone-by-dr-basil-venitis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-134-135-modern-hedging-for-everyone-by-dr-basil-venitis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-furt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (137-141): Further Analysis of Triple Exponential Smoothing by ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D./Technical Analysis staff writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Further Analysis of Triple Exponential\nSmoothing\nby ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D./Technical Analysis staff writer
In the July issue of Technical Analysis, J. Hutson presented a method of using triple exponential\nsmoothing (TRIX) as a trading oscillator and supplied a BASIC routine for calculating TRIX plots. In\nthis article we present a precise method for selecting the TRIX alpha constant using Fourier Spectrum\nanalysis and show how to use historical price data for selecting buy and sell indicators.
In Part I we discuss choosing an optimal alpha value using Fourier Analysis and the author's alpha\nselection curve. Readers unfamiliar with Fourier Analysis and its uses in designing trading systems (as\nexplained in the author's January and May articles) may skip this section and proceed directly to Part II.\nIn Part II we discuss selection of significance bands and trend reversal constants for optimal selection of\nbuy and sell indicators.
Part I: TRIX Spectrum Analysis and Alpha Selection
The TRIX oscillator consists of applying triple exponential filtering (filtering the input data three times)\nfollowed by output data differencing, i.e., taking the difference between the current filtered value and the\nprevious day filtered value. The idea behind this method is that the differencing operation attenuates very\nlong data cycles (low frequencies), and the triple exponential filter removes the daily trading noise which\nis predominant at short cycles (high frequencies). The resultant filtered data only contains the cycles of\ninterest for trading. The differencing operation unfortunately has the effect of increasing the power in all\nhigher frequency components, and thus triple exponential filtering is required in order to adequately\nsuppress these noise components. (Double exponential filters do not provide enough smoothing to\neliminate all the noise components.) In principle, we want to choose the TRIX alpha constant to retain all\nthe data cycles of interest and to reject all of the high frequency noise components. Fourier Analysis of\nhistoric price data allows us to do this."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-137-141-further-analysis-of-triple-exponential-smoothing-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-technical-analysis-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-137-141-further-analysis-of-triple-exponential-smoothing-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-technical-analysis-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-137-141-further-analysis-of-triple-exponential-smoothing-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-technical-analysis-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-crook-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (141-142): Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens: Commodity Conferences by FRED S. GEHM"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens:\nCommodity Conferences\nby FRED S. GEHM/ Technical Analysis staff writer
I wanted to title this column \""How I Spent My Summer Vacation.\"" But the conferences were in Chicago\nand no reasonable individual would ever believe that another individual, reasonable or not, would go to\nChicago for a vacation. Especially in the summer.
Be that as it may, the National Association of Futures Trading Advisors (NAFTA) and Managed Account\nReports (MAR) held conferences in Chicago this summer. Attending these conferences is either A)\nabsolutely essential or, B) a complete waste of time, depending on who you are and what you are trying\nto accomplish there.
The NAFTA conference was obviously geared toward the needs of commodity trading advisors (CTAs)\nand commodity pool operators (CPOs). It consisted solely of panel discussions on securities law and\nregistration requirements, National Futures Association (NFA) compliance and audit procedures, the\nexchanges, the futures management industry's future trends and potential problems, and cooperation\nbetween futures commissions merchants (FCMs) and CTAs and CPOs in order to raise captial.
The MAR conference was not as narrowly focused. It had panel discussions on portfolio expansion and\nspecialized trading programs, and on institutional investing in commodity money management."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-141-142-crooks-cranks-and-honest-citizens-commodity-conferences-by-fred-s-gehm-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-141-142-crooks-cranks-and-honest-citizens-commodity-conferences-by-fred-s-gehm-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-141-142-crooks-cranks-and-honest-citizens-commodity-conferences-by-fred-s-gehm-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-funn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (143-144): The Funnel Formation by ORY J. CANAL"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Funnel Formation\nby ORY J. CANAL
The Funnel formation is a technical analysis tool that you may find very useful in analyzing stocks. To\nbegin this discussion of the Funnel, let's locate one on a chart. For this we will use the chart in the back of\nthe Wall Street Journal . It has the industrials, transports, rails, and of course volume of all the stocks\ntraded on the New York Stock Exchange for that particular day. (The paper doesn't cost very much and if\nyou make a mistake on the chart, you can buy a fresh one tomorrow.) The Funnel is formed by points 1,\n2, and 3, 5, 6, and 7. Points 1, 2 and 3 form an uptrend line, while points 5 and 6 form a downtrend line,\nwith both lines meeting at point 7. The result looks like a funnel. (or megaphone—All you need now is a\nhandle on the uptrend line.) This market phenomenon can and does occur in the intra-day moves, in\nweekly moves, monthly as is illustrated, and gigantic moves which take place after years.
Points 1, 2, and 3 are support points, that is, where the market finds support, is held there, and reverses\ndirection. Points 5 and 6 are resistance points, that is, points where the market is unable to rise any\nfurther, meets resistance, and reverses direction. By connecting points 1, 2, and 3 we create the support\nline, the bottom of the Funnel. Doing the same with points 5 and 6 creates a resistance line on the top of\nthe Funnel. If these two lines are extended out far enough, they join at point 7 forming the Funnel. Line 9,\n10 has been drawn to show that the market is in an uptrend, and to illustrate exactly where the Funnel fits\nin. Line 9, 10 is also called a resistance line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-143-144-the-funnel-formation-by-ory-j-canal-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-143-144-the-funnel-formation-by-ory-j-canal-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-143-144-the-funnel-formation-by-ory-j-canal-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-commp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (145-146): Commodity Portfolios by DR. BASIL VENITIS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Commodity Portfolios\nby DR. BASIL VENITIS
The techniques introduced here are a pre-requisite for any serious commodity investor who does not\nplay the game just for the fun of it. They are the guidelines that separate the men from the boys. The main\nreason futures traders lose money is poor portfolio management. Some economists subscribe to the\nrandom walk theory for commodities, i.e., they believe that it is impossible to forecast prices. Even when\nthis extremely cynical point of view is considered, it is still possible to profit greatly in a consistent way\nby controlling the risk and proper portfolio diversification.
DIVERSIFICATION
Capital preservation should be the priority item in any portfolio. If the trader survives unfavorable\nmarkets, he will be present to reap the rewards of winning market positions. Every portfolio has a\nsystematic risk and a statistical risk. The systematic risk is due to the high betas of some commodities,\ni.e., the relative return of a commodity with respect to the return of the commodity group. Beta is more or\nless a degree of relative volatility. For example, from the precious metals group, silver has the highest\nbeta. Brokerage houses and exchanges try to reduce the beta effect by increasing the margin of high beta\ncommodities. The systematic risk can be minimized by selecting low beta commodities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-145-146-commodity-portfolios-by-dr-basil-venitis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-145-146-commodity-portfolios-by-dr-basil-venitis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-145-146-commodity-portfolios-by-dr-basil-venitis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-comms-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (147-148): Commodity Spreading: An Art of Price Differentials by DR. BASIL VENITIS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Commodity Spreading: An Art of Price\nDifferentials\nby DR. BASIL VENITIS
A Commodity Spread or Straddle is a combination of a long position and a short position in related\ncommodity futures. It is a sort of arbitrage between futures. (The same way hedging is a sort of arbitrage\nbetween spot commodities and futures.)
Four basic types of spreads are the following:
1. The arbitrage between different delivery months of the same commodity is called an interdelivery\nspread.
2. The arbitrage of the same commodity in different exchanges is called an intermarket spread.
3. Arbitrage of different but related commodities is called an intercommodity spread.
4. Arbitrage between a commodity and its products is called a product spread. The most popular\nproduct spread is the BOM (Bean-Oil-Meal) spread between soybeans and their crushed forms, i.e.\nsoybean oil and meal. This is called soybean crush when one buys the beans and sells the products, or\nreverse soybean crush when one buys the product an sells the beans.
Commodity spreads are usually expressed as the long futures price minus the short futures price;\nhowever, if the two legs of an intercommodity spread are of different sizes, the spread can be expressed\neither as a balanced spread with unequal sized contracts on each leg but equal numbers of units on each\nleg; or, it can be expressed as money spreads in total dollar value of the two contracts. For example, the\nspread 4 October hogs minus 3 October cattle is a balanced spread with both legs representing an equal\nsize of 120,000 lbs. of meat."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-147-148-commodity-spreading-an-art-of-price-differentials-by-dr-basil-venitis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-147-148-commodity-spreading-an-art-of-price-differentials-by-dr-basil-venitis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-147-148-commodity-spreading-an-art-of-price-differentials-by-dr-basil-venitis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c06-fore-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:6 (149-151): To Forecast or To Follow by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""To Forecast or To Follow\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer
Browsing the ads of Barron's Financial Weekly or Commodities magazine can be mesmerizing.\nFinancial gurus, \""new discoveries\"" and \""wonder\"" systems abound. Too much skepticism might be\nunwise, since new discoveries are in fact made and old knowledge rediscovered all the time. But it's\ndoubtful given the velocity at which they are currently streaming forth, that all these discoveries are as\nvaluable as they claim. Nevertheless, the good is always there in the shadows of the bold print. So, the\ntask becomes to separate the wheat from the tares.
The task is best begun by attempting to differentiate between the underlying concepts, and then\ngravitating toward one or another that by its own virtue appears to be practical and based on sound\nreasoning.
I would venture to say that the philosophy or reasoning underlying a given method of implementing an\ninvestment can be classified into one of two categories: the school of forecasting and the school of\ntrend following. Forecasting we will define as placing a primary emphasis on predetermining the\nparticular price level that a given market will reach, or how long the move in force will last. The\nforecaster asks the question, \""What is the market going to do?\""
Trend following is similar in nature because it too is a type of forecasting, but instead of projected time\nor price, the focus is on current activity and direction. We will define trend following as measuring the\ncurrent trend(s) of a given market, and then depending on the Law of Inertia or Momentum to enhance\nthe probability that a given trend will continue. The trend follower asks the question, \""What is the market\ndoing?\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-149-151-to-forecast-or-to-follow-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-149-151-to-forecast-or-to-follow-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-6-149-151-to-forecast-or-to-follow-by-jesse-h-thompson-technical-analysis-staff-writer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c07-what-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:7 (154-159): WHAT TEXTBOOKS NEVER TELL YOU by Jesse H. Thompson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""WHAT TEXTBOOKS NEVER TELL YOU\nby Jesse H. Thompson
Post Pattern Activity
Most texts on market form or activity describe certain price patterns that occur with great frequency;\nthese texts also define the implications of these price patterns and their potential movement. Studying\n\""market habits\"" as Jesse Livermore called them can be of great value to the analyst or trader who has the\ncapacity to interpret them. Many of these market habits are widely known and commonly referred to, yet\nused in isolation they can prove deficient. A rule of thumb is: To validate the implications of any such\nprice pattern, ensuing price activity must conform to the implications of the pattern.
If a trade is based on a particular pattern and its assumed potential, a study of \""post-pattern\"" activity may\nhelp reduce risk. After all, this constant attempt at risk reduction lies at the heart of longevity as a player\non the investment field. Always seek these warning signals and heed their implications.
Head and Shoulders Formation
To illustrate this point, let's examine some examples of price pattern or behavior and the implications of\n\""post-pattern\"" activity. First, we'll examine the widely known \""head and shoulders\"" formation. Figure 1,\nis a normal example of a head and shoulder top pattern. Inherent, in the wide swings within a roughly\nestablished price range is a struggle for balance and dominance by the forces of supply and demand. All\nhead and shoulders top patterns begin as in figure 2, with a primary ongoing upthrust followed by a\nreaction. Then as figure 3 illustrates, another upward thrust to new highs follows. Notice also in figure 3\nthat the next reaction almost completely retraces the last move up to new highs (between lines b. and c.).\nNext we see that a potential double bottom is forming, perhaps preparing for another swing up."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-154-159-what-textbooks-never-tell-you-by-jesse-h-thompson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-154-159-what-textbooks-never-tell-you-by-jesse-h-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-154-159-what-textbooks-never-tell-you-by-jesse-h-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c07-daytrad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:7 (160-165): Day Trading The Averages by JOHN F. KEPKA"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Day Trading The Averages\nby JOHN F. KEPKA
When Stock Index Futures trading with the Value Line contract was initiated at the Kansas City\nBoard of Trade, futures traders suddenly gained the opportunity to trade the entire stock market. Large\nprofitable moves became available, but along with them came the associated high risk, due to the\nincreased daily price swings of the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, NY Composite, Value Line, and the\nnew S&P 100 Index. Trading by using daily High, Low and Closing prices can be very risky in a market\nwhere futures contracts can move $2500 or more in one day (There are no daily price limits in stock\nindex futures contracts.)
I have always believed that excellent trading results could be achieved in this market by using technical\ntrading systems, operating on intraday data. By monitoring price action more frequently during the day\nthe risk factor on a given trade can be reduced, and turning points in the market may be entered and\nexited at optimal times rather than only at market openings or closes, thus giving the trader a distinct\nadvantage. Since the market turns up or down throughout the day, the closing price, which most traders\nnow use for their analysis, is the confirmation of the turning point not the turning point itself.
Expense is always a consideration. Recently, the equipment for providing intraday price quotes and\nanalysis, both hardware and software, became available to the trader at reasonable cost. The most\nexpensive part of the analysis is the monthly charge for the quote machine, of which a large percentage is\nthe monthly fee paid directly to the individual exchanges by the quote machine supplier. My current\nequipment configuration for intraday analysis consists of a Commodity Communications quote machine,\nan Apple computer (disk drives, ram disk and serial card and an optional accelerator card, which is really\nnecessary to speed up computations by 3½ times), an Integral Data Systems 460 printer, and the Intraday\nAnalyst (IDA) software. A second Apple system using CompuTrac is used for interday number crunching."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-160-165-day-trading-the-averages-by-john-f-kepka-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-160-165-day-trading-the-averages-by-john-f-kepka-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-160-165-day-trading-the-averages-by-john-f-kepka-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c07-mark-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:7 (166-167): The Market Direction Indicator Anticipating Moving Average Crossovers by DONALD R. LAMBERT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Market Direction Indicator Anticipating\nMoving Average Crossovers\nby DONALD R. LAMBERT
Over the years, trading methods have evolved from the very simple (such as the CHANGCHENG\nBANFA or \""Great Wall Method,\"" which dates back to the Orient of the 1700's), to Point and Figure, to\nnumerous modern complex calculation methods.
Despite all the modern techniques available, many traders still cling to their moving averages (and\nsometimes crossover) systems, and make money doing so, but unfortunately not as much money as they\nshould. Since moving averages always lag behind actual price movements, devotees of the moving\naverage always get their signals a little late, often too late to take effective action.
Sometimes though if the trader is willing to venture a little beyond his customary technique, performance\ncan be improved through \""anticipation calculations;\"" that is, computing in advance of market activity the\nprice that would be necessary to cause a moving average to cross the price line. The calculation for this\nmethod is as follows:
Crossover Price ="",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-166-167-the-market-direction-indicator-anticipating-moving-average-crossovers-by-donald-r-lambert-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-166-167-the-market-direction-indicator-anticipating-moving-average-crossovers-by-donald-r-lambert-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-166-167-the-market-direction-indicator-anticipating-moving-average-crossovers-by-donald-r-lambert-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c07-callput-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:7 (168-169): CALL/PUT OPTIONS 2.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CALL/PUT OPTIONS 2.0
Name of Program: Call/Put Options 2.0
Publisher: Harloff, Inc.
Price: $499.00
Backup: Disk is protected, no backup provisions
Hardware: APPLE II+, IIe or III in emulation mode. DOS 3.3
The Call/Put Options 2.0 Program has definite value for the trader who has decided to deal in the options\nmarkets. The program has some glaring faults, and some less important disadvantages are apparent, but\noverall the usefulness for the options trader outweighs these flaws.
This program model was constructed by analysis of 2000 individual call and put options. Interest rates,\ndividends and commissions are not considered by this model. The purpose of the program is similar to\nthat of the familiar Black-Scholes model; although the author, Gary J. Harloff, Ph.D., goes to some effort\nto point out that his model is a \""New Original Model\"" and is addressed to THE GRAND MASTER\nOPTIONS INVESTOR (whoever he or they may be.) Nevertheless, it may be assumed that the ultimate\npurpose of this program is to help the buyer make money in the options markets, and that that similarity\nwith other option modelling programs will not be denied."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-168-169-call-put-options-2-0-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-168-169-call-put-options-2-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-168-169-call-put-options-2-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c07-pys-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:7 (170-171): The Psychology of the Decision Bee by JESSE H. THOMPSON"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Psychology of the Decision Bee\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON
A round the market \""hives\"" buzz the forever listless market observers, the \""bees\"". The hedgers,\nscalpers, brokers, analysts, traders, speculators, you and I. Within the general category of these \""bees\"",\nthere are two subclasses, the participants and the non-participants. some non-participant bees are\ntemporarily so; they do not currently have a position, short or long, in the markets. Then there are the\npermanent non participants; those who never take positions in the market but are content to divine and\nimpact the direction and psychology of the markets as a business or livelihood within itself (some\nanalysts, brokers, newsletter writers, for example.)
Non-participant bees are continually forming opinions as to the direction of price. These impressions are\neither intuitively derived or derived from a particular method of analysis. Once an opinion is formed, the\ntemporary non-participant is itchingly drawn to implement that decision and become a participant bee.\nHe watches the market closely and compares his opinion accordingly. If he sees that his opinion or feel is\nwrong then this bee may go back to divining his charts for the time being. If the markets are moving in\nthe direction he foresaw, then the impulse to become a participant bee becomes almost irresistible."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-170-171-the-psychology-of-the-decision-bee-by-jesse-h-thompson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-170-171-the-psychology-of-the-decision-bee-by-jesse-h-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-170-171-the-psychology-of-the-decision-bee-by-jesse-h-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c07-four-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:7 (173-178): FOURlER ANALYSIS! IN A NUTSHELL FASTER and BETTER by Anthony Warren Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""FOURlER ANALYSIS! IN A NUTSHELL\nFASTER and BETTER\nby Anthony Warren Ph.D.
For those individuals who are currently using Fourier Spectrum analysis, this article describes some\ntechniques that make the analysis easier to perform and the spectral plots easier to interpret. (The reader\nmay also want to review the January articles on Fourier Analysis 1 , or the May article on its use in\nselecting moving average parameters 2 .) Part I. of this article attempts to shed some light on the question,\n\""How many data points should I use for doing Spectrum Analysis?\"". In a nutshell, the answer is that the\ndata length should cover at least one cycle of the longest cycle in the data (i.e., for most stocks and\ncommodities, one trading year). Part II. describes a simple preprocessing calculation that reduces the time\nneeded to obtain a Spectrum plot. This makes it practical to generate Spectrum plots for a long time\nseries, say one to two years of data, on a regular basis.
Part I. Using Long Time Series for High Resolution Spectrum Plots
One of the most important considerations in generating Spectrum plots is how to resolve spectral peaks,\ni.e. how to find the frequency (rate of oscillation in cycles/year), or alternatively, how to find the cycle\nlength of the highest power peaks in the spectrum (which ultimately should give you an idea of when to\ntrade). The ability to resolve spectral peaks is directly proportional to the length of time over which the\ndata are collected. For example, when using three months of data (one quarter of a year), the lowest\nfrequency components in the Fourier Spectrum are at 0, 4, 8,...cycles/yr. Consequently, we can resolve\nspectral peaks with an accuracy of only about four cycles/year, and probably less due to noise averaging\nand other effects. By contrast, with a full year's data we can resolve spectral peaks with an accuracy close\nto one cycle/year. This higher resolution is valuable for optimizing the filter constants (cycle length, Trix\nalpha, etc.) used in many technical analyses."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-173-178-fourler-analysis-in-a-nutshell-faster-and-better-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-173-178-fourler-analysis-in-a-nutshell-faster-and-better-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-173-178-fourler-analysis-in-a-nutshell-faster-and-better-by-anthony-warren-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c07-gold-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:7 (179-181): Gold Stocks by RICHARD J. MATURI"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Gold Stocks\nby RICHARD J. MATURI
Can the average investor successfully participate in the gold market without knowing the intricacies of\ncommodity trading, and without having to deal with the problems associated with owning precious\nmetals? The answer is yes. The volatility of gold prices provide ample opportunity for substantial profits\nfor the investor. During the past ten years, I have actively traded a NYSE gold mining stock, Benguet\n(BE), with great success. Benguet is a producer of gold, and the stock can be traded for its play on the\nprice fluctuations of gold as well as giving the investor the opportunity to participate in the fortunes of\nthe company and the market overall.
A little over a year ago, I developed a trading strategy for Benguet in hopes of earning a 50's, gain after\ncommissions, a goal I thought was probably unrealistic. Instead, after a year of trading Benguet I realized\na totally unexpected gain of 163% over my original investment. During the period from March 1982\nthrough March 1983, an average investment of $2,432 yielded a yearly gain of $3,971 after commissions.\nThis gain was in addition to any dividends paid, interest earned, and gains on other stocks while waiting\nto purchase Benguet. Of course, the stock market boom contributed to my success, but if I had simply\npurchased Benguet at the beginning of the period and sold it at the end, a gain of \""only\"" 107%, would\nhave been earned; a difference of 56%, -- which is more than my original investment goal. All this while\nthe price of gold from the beginning to the end of the period varied little."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-179-181-gold-stocks-by-richard-j-maturi-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-179-181-gold-stocks-by-richard-j-maturi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-179-181-gold-stocks-by-richard-j-maturi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v01-c07-risk-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-1-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.1:7 (182-185): RISK MANAGEMENT: The Square Root of Sharpe's, Stone's and Okham's Ratios by FRED S. GEHM"",""caption-linebreaks"":""RISK MANAGEMENT: The Square Root of\nSharpe's, Stone's and Okham's Ratios\nby FRED S. GEHM
One of the most important tasks of commodity market money managers is the measurement and\ncontrol of risk. Currently, the most popular technique for measuring risk is Sharpe's ratio, named for\nfinancial theorist, William F. Sharpe. Despite its popularity (or perhaps because of it), Sharpe's ratio\nrecently has received considerable criticism. For the trader it becomes important to ask, are these\ncriticisms valid? And, if so, what alternatives are available?
Sharpe's Ratio
Sharpe's ratio (R) is defined as follows:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-182-185-risk-management-the-square-root-of-sharpe-s-stone-s-and-okham-s-ratios-by-fred-s-gehm-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-182-185-risk-management-the-square-root-of-sharpe-s-stone-s-and-okham-s-ratios-by-fred-s-gehm-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-1-7-182-185-risk-management-the-square-root-of-sharpe-s-stone-s-and-okham-s-ratios-by-fred-s-gehm-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c01-int-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:1 (12-16): An Introduction to Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) Technical Analysis by Anthony W. Warren, Ph. D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""An Introduction to Maximum Entropy Method\n(MEM) Technical Analysis\nby Anthony W. Warren, PhD
RESEARCH
Preface to Maximum Entropy Articles
A reasonable assumption concerning the motivation of subscribers to Technical Analysis of Stocks and\nCommodities magazine might be that they are looking for practical methods to improve the 'bottom line'\nor profit of their trading activities. It should be stated and emphasized that this article is one of several\nplanned articles leading to a conclusion which will indeed provide a practical tool intended to augment\nthat 'bottom line '. The reader will therefore be reassured that before the end of this series of articles, the\nauthor will conclude with practical applications similar to those provided in previous issues for other\ntools such as Fourier Analysis, ARIMA, Finite Impulse Response filters, TRIX, and Market Direction\nIndicator studies.
Dr. Warren's article is a description of his research concerning the adaptation of an accepted\nmathematical tool, Maximum Entropy, to the analysis of the data spectrum we traders call stock and\ncommodity prices. Furthermore, the article promises to provide a \""method of adaptive filtering and data\nforecasting': which is what a practical trader will examine for profit. Most 'technical analysts' feel a\nneed to understand the mathematical theory behind the use of the various tools at their disposal and this\narticle is the necessary first step to that understanding There is nothing in this first article which can be\nplugged into your computer or your immediate decision making apparatus; however, be assured that\nsuch is forthcoming.
A caution may be appropriate for some fraction of the readership. That caution is that no technique,\nstudy or tool of technical analysis is perfect or promises success, by itself or in any combination with\nother tools. An experienced, practical trader in this zero sum game seeks no more than an edge, say a\n10% edge, in making his trading decisions. That edge combined with disciplined money and risk management will place this trader among the survivors ... no more! Often less!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-12-16-an-introduction-to-maximum-entropy-method-mem-technical-analysis-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-12-16-an-introduction-to-maximum-entropy-method-mem-technical-analysis-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-12-16-an-introduction-to-maximum-entropy-method-mem-technical-analysis-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c01-gold-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:1 (20-23): GOLD SWINGS REVISITED by Jesse H. Thompson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""GOLD SWINGS REVISITED\nby Jesse H. Thompson
Review
In the March 83 issue of TA, in an article entitled \""Gold: Bull or Bear Market?\"", a simple yet very\neffective trend tool, the swing chart, was used to analyze the greater trend of gold. The monthly swing\nchart for June Comex Gold was in the position indicated (right). In the article it was noted that the\n\""failure of the June contract to break the previous swing high (527) is indicative of weakness.\""\nEssentially, the turning down from the second or double-top at 528 established a distribution area at the\n527-528 level. From this chart it was also concluded that \""If the last swing low at 413 is broken by $10,\nthen we will have emphatic confirmation of a greater bear trend. (Ref. A)
Confirming Price Activity
In the first week of June '83, the June Comex Gold contract confirmed a greater bear market by breaking\nto 396.20, under 413 by $16.80. The Dec 83 contract did likewise by breaking to 414 which was $19\nbelow the 433 monthly swing bottom. Both contracts thus confirmed a greater bear trend and lower\nprices. (Ref. B, C)
Importance of the Monthly Bottom
More carefully scrutinizing the 433 Dec bottom (and the June 413 bottom), we see the critical importance\nof the 433 price level. Reviewing the weekly swing chart for the Dec 83 Gold contract, we see that\npreviously the major bottoms in the 430's acted as support levels. Once these levels were broken, the\nprice action indicated a weakening of demand or increase in supply, which should have concomitant\nbearish implications. (Ref. D)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-20-23-gold-swings-revisited-by-jesse-h-thompson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-20-23-gold-swings-revisited-by-jesse-h-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-20-23-gold-swings-revisited-by-jesse-h-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c01-limi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:1 (24-26): Limited Risk - High Leverage Potential by Richard J. Maturi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Limited Risk - High Leverage Potential\nby Richard J. Maturi
Interested in an investment opportunity with known limited risk and high leverage profit potential?\nThen silver options may be right for you. Many investors shy away from gold and silver investment\nvehicles for fear of margin calls and forced liquidations, and others consider options too complicated to\nunderstand. But both fears are unfounded when dealing with options.
An option is a contractual obligation of the grantor (the one offering the option) which gives the option\npurchaser the right, though not the obligation, to buy from or sell to the grantor a specified amount of a\ncommodity at a specified price (called a \""striking price\"") before a specified time and a specific date\n(called the \""expiration date\"").
There are two types of options. \""Calls\"" give the holder the right to buy the underlying commodity at the\nstriking price before the expiration date. \""Puts\"" give the holder the right to sell the commodity at the\nstriking price before the expiration date.
Silver options offer the following advantages over other silver investment vehicles:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-24-26-limited-risk-high-leverage-potential-by-richard-j-maturi-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-24-26-limited-risk-high-leverage-potential-by-richard-j-maturi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-24-26-limited-risk-high-leverage-potential-by-richard-j-maturi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c01-why-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:1 (35-41): WHY I BECAME A JUNKMAN by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""WHY I BECAME A JUNKMAN\nby Bill Dunbar
IN THE BEGINNING
My wife hurled the folder into the air, scattering it all over the family room.
\""Take your damn stocks!\"" she screamed. \""I'll never look at another one again!\""
Promises, promises. I stomped out of the room and slammed the door almost before she started picking\nup the pieces.
That wasn't our first fight over the stock market nor our last, but their violence subsided from then on\nbecause we decided at that point to settle out of court with a \""financial divorce,\"" dividing up the various\nissues as if we were picking players for a baseball game. When we got through we had two portfolios,\n\""His\"" and \""Hers.\"" Now we'll see who's right and who's the dummy.
My wife likes underdogs and sticks with them forever, in sickness and in health — you can almost hear\nthe wedding bells ring. Not me. I get tired of an issue after a while, especially when the price goes down\nand it keeps reminding me what a dope I was for having bought it in the first place. Then I trump up a\nperfectly logical reason for getting rid of it.
The next several years were a long and trying time, pure hell, during which my wife's fund took off and\nleft mine way back there choking on the exhaust fumes. No matter what I did I just couldn't catch up. I\ntried fundamental approaches, technical methods, and a number of schemes of my own concoction, and I\ndidn't do so badly either, but I couldn't catch up to my wife.
Until I became a junk man.
Now my fund is on top and I'm wearing the pants again. I'll tell you how it happened."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-35-41-why-i-became-a-junkman-by-bill-dunbar-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-35-41-why-i-became-a-junkman-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-1-35-41-why-i-became-a-junkman-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c02-comp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:2 (48-54): Computers in the Futures Industry by William T. Taylor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Computers in the Futures Industry\nby William T. Taylor
The futures industry, like other investment-oriented industries, relies heavily on information. For years,\nexchanges have used the computer for price recording and data gathering as well as for accounting.\nComputer technology has brought price data to thousands of traders through various quotation services.\nIn fact, the computer can bring a trader so much data that there is virtually no way a human being could\npossibly absorb the data and transform it into information in time to be useful.
Notice, I'm making a distinction between data and information here. Data are just prices, supply and\ndemand figures, production estimates, news items and so forth, that can affect the activity of the various\nmarkets. information on the other hand, is produced by an orderly assimilation of the data, sorting out the\nimportant from the irrelevant, and organizing it into some useful format.
The computer can help the trader accomplish the task of converting data into information, but not by\nitself. Alone, the computer is nothing more than a machine, a piece of hardware. It is the programs or\nsoftware that instruct the computer how to perform its functions with great speed an accuracy,\ntransforming the barrage of data into usable information for the trader.
Until recently, the specialized software needed by the trader was not available for micro-computers. Only\ntraders with computer programming knowledge were able to use the power of computers, by developing\nsoftware for their own use. But gradually the market for software services began to grow, attracting the\ntalent necessary to develop programs and data services for the trader. As recently as five years ago, only a\nhandful of traders were using small microcomputers to assist them in trading. Now thousands of\nindividuals and firms all over the world are using this powerful tool."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-48-54-computers-in-the-futures-industry-by-william-t-taylor-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-48-54-computers-in-the-futures-industry-by-william-t-taylor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-48-54-computers-in-the-futures-industry-by-william-t-taylor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c02-opti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:2 (55-59): Optimizing the Maximum Entropy Method by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Optimizing the Maximum Entropy Method\nby Anthony W. Warren, PhD
This article is the second in a series on the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) and its use in technical\nanalysis for short data length spectrum estimation and short term forecasting. In the first article (January\n1984 issue of T.A.) we introduced the main ideas behind MEM and illustrated the relationship between\nthe MEM order or number of days used in MEM forecasts, and the resolution in the spectrum. In the\nfollowing article we discuss the critical process of optimizing the MEM fit coefficients to obtain reliable\nmodels for spectrum estimation. This process is crucial for obtaining high resolution spectra from short\ndata sets (say 30 to 80 samples of price history data), and for obtaining forecasts consistent with recent\ndata trends and cycle lengths. The optimizing methods discussed here represent the product of both\nacademic research on the Maximum Entropy Method and the author's research on application of this\nmethod to stock and commodity data. The result of this effort is a semi-automated optimization algorithm\n(to be published in a subsequent issue of T.A.) which is relatively easy to use, and which in most cases\nwill produce reliable spectra and forecasts. The application of this method to trend channel forecasting\nand usage within trading systems will be discussed in a subsequent article.
MEM OPTIMIZATION PARAMETERS
There are three parameters which may be selected independently in the author's optimizing method:
* A prefilter-and-sample parameter- D
* The MEM prediction order- M
* The data length- N"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-55-59-optimizing-the-maximum-entropy-method-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-55-59-optimizing-the-maximum-entropy-method-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-55-59-optimizing-the-maximum-entropy-method-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c02-pric-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:2 (60-65): Price, Action and Resistance by Jesse H. Thompson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price, Action and Resistance\nby Jesse H. Thompson
Origin, History and Recent Price Action
We can not obtain a full account of the \""present position\"" (price potential), of any given stock or\ncommodity without a review of its recent price origins, price history and price action. And a wider\nperspective is possible only by considering a greater time frame than is normally provided in the limited\nspace of most chart services. Hence, the great value in keeping your own longer term charts on each\nvehicle you monitor.
The cycles of supply and demand are characteristically shorter for commodities than stocks both because\ncommodities are so much more perishable and because the consumer demand for them is more\nimmediate. The great secular movements of supply and demand usually run 2-4 years in commodities and\nmuch longer in stocks.
In this article, we will analyze the \""present position\"" of the November 84 Soybean contract relative to\nprice origin, price history and recent price action.
Price Origins and History
The first point of price origin that is relevant to the \""present position\"" dates back to the last pulses of the\nmost recent secular bear market low. This point is the 518 major low which occurred on 4 Oct 82 in the\nNovember 1982 contract (Chart A, Point A). Note that 518 was the final low of the major bear market\nextending downward from the 930½ major top of 5 Nov 80. This great bear's price history consisted of\nfive great swings downward, culminating at 518. The price history after the 518 low consists of two great\nswings up to the 968½ major top of 13 Sep 83 (Chart A, Point B).
The downturning from the 968½ top, and the subsequent reaction establishes the 968½ top as the second\nmajor point of origin relevant to the \""present position\""."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-60-65-price-action-and-resistance-by-jesse-h-thompson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-60-65-price-action-and-resistance-by-jesse-h-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-60-65-price-action-and-resistance-by-jesse-h-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c02-fibo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:2 (66-73): FIBONACCI FORECAST EXAMPLES by Tucker J. Emmett"",""caption-linebreaks"":""FIBONACCI FORECAST EXAMPLES\nby Tucker J. Emmett
I have a system that I use, with great success, for making short and long term predictions for various\nsegments of the futures market. Recently, I have been asked repeatedly for more descriptive information\nconcerning my system and techniques, and this article is my reply. In it, I will first briefly describe the\ntheory, and then devote most of the article to examples of the proper application of my own Fibonacci\ntechniques. These techniques I have researched over the past ten years and have tested empirically in the\nfutures markets. I will highlight what to look for.
For a more thorough discussion of the theory and principles behind the application of the Fibonacci series\nto the futures and stock markets, you may want to refer to my Fibonacci Forecast or some other\nFibonacci reference.
The Fibonacci Series is a succession of integers as follows: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ... etc.,\neach successive number in the series being the sum of the two previous. The ratio between successive\nnumbers in the series approaches .618, or inversely, 1.618. These ratios are extremely important.
My Fibonacci approach to the futures markets involves subdividing each market into three specific\ncategories: Pattern, Ratio, and Time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-66-73-fibonacci-forecast-examples-by-tucker-j-emmett-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-66-73-fibonacci-forecast-examples-by-tucker-j-emmett-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-66-73-fibonacci-forecast-examples-by-tucker-j-emmett-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c02-nov-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:2 (74-75): Novice Speculator by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Novice Speculator\nby John Sweeney
Bill Wyckoff suggested I write this—not personally, of course, since he's long out of print. He just noted\nin Wall Street Ventures and Adventures Through Forty Years that writing and publishing The Ticker was\na terrific way of learning about his market (the stock market). I can take a hint.
I decided to write about growth. After all, nine months of full-time speculation have given me more\ngrowing pains than I ever thought possible. It occurred to me that a careful documentation of my path\nmight be valuable to others as well as to me. That this would probably highlight mistakes hasn't bothered\nme. I know that, in theory, people actually learn from mistakes, whereas success is tough to evaluate and\neasy to forget.
I see the world as full of restraints and pitfalls, amongst which we poke and probe for a safe, rewarding\npath. When a probing trade comes back with two-thirds of the margin missing, the novice learns to avoid\nsomething. For a novice, that knowledge is enough—survival alone is the novice's goal. A trader, on the\nother hand, having bested the issue of survival, may probe some more, perhaps more gingerly, to find a\nprofit-maker. And by the time one is a true speculator, I assume one knows what is in that\nmargin-devouring pitfall! After all, the word \""speculator\"" comes from the Latin verb \""to see\""; hence, a\nperson who truly does see what is before him. To become a true speculator, then, would be a great\nachievement, and is the goal to which these writings are dedicated."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-74-75-novice-speculator-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-74-75-novice-speculator-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-74-75-novice-speculator-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c02-analr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:2 (76-79): Analyzing Risk/Reward Tradeoffs by Fred S. Gehm"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Analyzing Risk/Reward Tradeoffs\nby Fred S. Gehm
These days, more and more potential traders are avoiding the day-to-day problems of commodity trading\nby committing their funds to professional money managers. For many, perhaps most, this is a reasonable\ndecision, although unfortunately it does not solve all of their trading problems. Deciding to use a money\nmanager only replaces the many difficult and important problems of trading with a few very difficult and\nvery important problems.
The most obvious and most important problem is that of selecting a money manager in the first place.\nWith several thousand individuals offering managed accounts of one kind or another, how can the \""best\""\nmoney manager be selected?
Selecting a Money Manager
It's been my experience that most individuals ask the wrong questions when attempting this selection.\nThey look for a manager with the highest potential returns, that is, the one who might possibly make the\nmost money. A somewhat more reasonable approach is to select a money manager who is likely to make\nthe highest return, a subtle but all-important difference."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-76-79-analyzing-risk-reward-tradeoffs-by-fred-s-gehm-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-76-79-analyzing-risk-reward-tradeoffs-by-fred-s-gehm-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-2-76-79-analyzing-risk-reward-tradeoffs-by-fred-s-gehm-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c03-filt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:3 (102-103): FILTER PRICE DATA: Moving Averages vs. Exponential Moving Averages by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""FILTER PRICE DATA: Moving Averages vs.\nExponential Moving Averages\nby Jack K. Hutson
In the process of collecting stock or commodity time series data, such as daily closes, we lose a\nsignificant quantity of information. We are examining a single point (sampling) of price history and\nendeavoring to glean some market understanding based only on a single daily price sample. This price\nsampling of a trading market frequently distorts the actual price signal. Among the diverse sources of\ndistortion may be simple record-keeping errors, emotional overflow from other stock issues or\ncommodities, rumors and political repercussions. Exchange specialists or floor traders also tend to\namplify minor intraday price moves enough to allow them an opportunity to trade, sometimes with a\nprofit.
Modification of this stream of daily price signals is sometimes necessary to remove the noise and reclaim\nthe original market message or direction. This process is called filtering. Analyzing how much noise may\nbe separated from the input data, without destroying the tradable movement, is not simple. A properly\noptimized simple linear moving average can often perform as well as an extremely complicated filter.\nThere are cases where the very best results require an elaborate filter but where only slightly inferior\nresults can be obtained by using comparatively simple filters.
When examining stock price historic data, it is common to look only at a plot of weekly ranges.\nSometimes Friday's closing price is shown as a small tick to the right or simply a cross on the weekly bar\nchart. By not plotting daily price ranges, we have applied a simple visual weekly filter to otherwise hectic\ndaily trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-102-103-filter-price-data-moving-averages-vs-exponential-moving-averages-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-102-103-filter-price-data-moving-averages-vs-exponential-moving-averages-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-102-103-filter-price-data-moving-averages-vs-exponential-moving-averages-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c03-nov-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:3 (110-112): NOVICE SPECULATOR: My First System by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NOVICE SPECULATOR:\nMy First System\nby John Sweeney
As a novice trader, newly equipped with a price monitor, personal computer, and a fresh reading of\nKaufman's Commodity Trading Systems and Methods, I was looking for some steady money in\nday-trading. In May of 1983 I was focused on T-Bills. I was afraid of what I called \""overnight risk\"" in the\nfinancials especially given market antics over the money supply. I wanted a way to generate a small\namount of money from the market on a regular basis. I could always, if successful, increase the number\nof contracts to get into more serious money.
Treasure Bills were just the ticket, my buddies in the cash markets told me. Their volatility was notorious\nwhich made sense to me given their short-term nature. \""Short-term = volatility\"", I thought.
My buddies and I were wrong. T Bills had entered a period of relative stability in October, 1982 — as\nmeasured by daily range and intra-day closing price differences. The monitor also told me that the T\nBond prices were changing far more often. By July, I was keeping two charts instead of one. LESSON: If\nyou can articulate your assu mptions, test the m yourself and don't try to study more than one thing\nat a time.
What was my thought here? I had the idea, as I've learned is common amongst novices, that if I couldn't\nsee how to take a large but highly uncertain profit from a large move, I'd try to take a small but highly\ncertain profit from those large moves LESSON: The larger moves are more predictable. To make this\nidea economically viable, I had to be able to take a lot of small profits which meant constantly looking\nfor opportunities. This is my novice's mindset: daytrading would expose the opportunities and protect me\nfrom taking \""overnight risk.\"" With this and the desire to get into nits and grits, the stage was set to start\nwatching my monitor hypnotically while drawing charts!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-110-112-novice-speculator-my-first-system-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-110-112-novice-speculator-my-first-system-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-110-112-novice-speculator-my-first-system-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c03-gold-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:3 (84-86): June, 1984 Gold: Studies in Price Action by Jesse H. Thompson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""June, 1984 Gold:\nStudies in Price Action\nby Jesse H. Thompson
The recent March trend reversal, as represented by the activity of the June 1984 Gold contract, is an\nexcellent study of the interaction of price with natural resistance levels, as well as illustrative of the\nprocess of \""distribution to the side\"".
The most important natural resistance areas for the June 1984 Gold contract relative to the recent rallying\nactivity are the natural divisions of the range formed by the last major monthly peak and the last major\nmonthly bottom. For the June 1984 contract this was the 473.50 top of July '83 and the major low at 374\nin January 1984 (refer to Chart A). Once the monthly bottom at 374 was defined by the rally in February,\nthe range was also concomitantly defined as 99.50. From this range we can quickly calculate potential\nresistance at a .382 (38.2%) range division which is 412, with the next important level being a .50 range\ndivision or 423.75. It is also helpful to calculate the midpoints between the .382 (38.2%) and the .50\n(50%) level (or the .50 (50%) and the .618 (61.8%) level) as the actual tops or bottoms often occur near\nexact midpoints of two important price resistance levels. This level for the .382 and the .50 percent range\nis the 418 dollar price level.
Therefore, as June Gold rallies to correct the oversold bear market condition prevelant at the 374 bottom,\nwe can expect potential resistance at the first important levels of 412, 418 or 423.75."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-84-86-june-1984-gold-studies-in-price-action-by-jesse-h-thompson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-84-86-june-1984-gold-studies-in-price-action-by-jesse-h-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-84-86-june-1984-gold-studies-in-price-action-by-jesse-h-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c03-lane-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:3 (87-90): LANE'S STOCHASTICS by George C. Lane, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""LANE'S STOCHASTICS\nby George C. Lane, M.D.
In 1954, I was fortunate to join Investment Educators as a \""gopher\"". I carried luggage, ran the projector,\nmade charts and took attendance for the owner, Ralph Dystant, and for the technical \""guru\"", Roy Larson.
When Mr. Larson (who was getting on in years) retired, Mr. Dystant became the guru for the stock\nmarket and I took the No. 2 spot teaching commodities. Mr. Dystant had a heart attack and, for a time, I\ntaught both stocks and commodities.
Some 43 members of the Chicago Board of Trade, Chicago Mercantile Exchange and MidAmerica\nCommodity Exchange went through our series of basic, intermediate, advanced and post graduate\ncourses. They were sharp, experienced traders, who took an aggressive approach to their professional\ntraining.
When you teach something, you really have to understand how it works. Fortunately for me, I was forced\nto learn the field of commodities thoroughly just to stay ahead of these students.
Ours was the first school to teach a heavy course in Elliott Wave. Our conventions featured such noteable\nspeakers of the day as Bolton, Marcheal, Jeff Drew, etc...
These were research days: 20 hour days, all calculating done by hand. The staff expanded to five. I shall\nnot mention names, as they are all well-off financially, still trading, and don't wish to be bothered."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-87-90-lane-s-stochastics-by-george-c-lane-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-87-90-lane-s-stochastics-by-george-c-lane-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-87-90-lane-s-stochastics-by-george-c-lane-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c03-trip-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:3 (91-93): TRIX: Triple Exponential Smoothing Oscillator by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRIX: Triple Exponential Smoothing Oscillator\nby Jack K. Hutson
Relating the use of Fourier spectrum analysis to stock or commodity data filter selection has been the\nsubject of a number of articles in Technical Analysis. In particular, Warren uses Fourier, in \""Optimizing\nTRIX: Further Analysis of Triple Exponential Smoothing\"" (September 1983 Technical Analysis), to\nselect TRIX's filter coefficients. The problem with any exponential moving average type filter is to\nproperly choose \""alpha\"", the filtering constant. Warren's article was important because he was able to\nmathematically manipulate our TRIX algorithm to obtain its transfer function. The transfer function is an\nimportant tool in the design of filters and may be used to precisely relate cycle frequency and filter\ncoefficients, such as \""alpha\"" in TRIX.
TRIX is obtained by triple exponentially smoothing the logarithm of daily market closes, then taking a\none day difference (momentum). In TRIX the \""alpha\"" used for each pass through (three times) the\nexponential filter process is the same, thus simplifying optimization. Warren used a frequency spectrum\ngenerated by Fourier analysis of daily market closes to choose a cutoff frequency. This is an excellent\nexample of using a frequency spectrum of past data to estimate the significance of price moves. We\nshould be able to pinpoint where the power in a spectrum drops off and therefore where shorter cycles are\nnot useful for trading daily price swings. This point is called the high frequency cutoff frequency. Warren\nexplained how to convert cutoff frequency to TRIX \""alpha\"" by the use of a chart in the above-mentioned\narticle. The following change to my original TRIX (July 1983 Technical Analysis) BASIC computer\nsubroutine eliminates the need of a chart. All that is required is the cutoff frequency in cycles per year.\nTRIX will then filter out all cycles that are less than the cutoff frequency."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-91-93-trix-triple-exponential-smoothing-oscillator-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-91-93-trix-triple-exponential-smoothing-oscillator-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-91-93-trix-triple-exponential-smoothing-oscillator-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c03-stoc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:3 (94-97): STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR by Harry Schirding"",""caption-linebreaks"":""STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR\nby Harry Schirding
Stochastic is an oscillator, that like the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) or Contary Opinion, can be\nused to indicate an overbought or oversold condition. The process has at its root an observation that in\nrising markets, prices tend to accumulate near the upper end of the day's trading range. The observation\nalso follows for falling markets that the close will tend to accumulate near the lower end of the day's\ntrading range. The result of computations described below will net two indicators, the \""%D\"" and \""K\"",\nwhich are plotted together to give a visual picture of the overbought or oversold of the data base used.
The following paragraphs describe two separate methods that can be used in the computation of the\nstochastic. The first method uses two formulas that will compute the values for \""K\"" and \""%D\""\nrespectively. The second method will make use of a table (figure 1) to arrive at the same values for \""K\""\nand \""%D\"". Both of these methods will compute the regular stochastic and a smoothed stochastic referred\nto as the slow stochastic."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-94-97-stochastic-oscillator-by-harry-schirding-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-94-97-stochastic-oscillator-by-harry-schirding-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-94-97-stochastic-oscillator-by-harry-schirding-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c03-insid-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:3 (98-101): THE INSIDE MAN by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE INSIDE MAN\nby Bill Dunbar
Inside Broker: Listen now, Charley, that stock moved up 5/8 yesterday and 1/2 the day before! You\nbetter grab it before it gets outa reach.
Charley: Do ya really think I should? I haven't even plotted the price ranges over the past couple of\nmonths.
Inside Broker: Hell, by the time you get all that done, it'll be gone, man, and you'll be left dancing around\nat the starting gate. That company is sure to earn four dollars a share this year and seven the next.
Charley: What kind of business are they in, anyway?
Inside Broker: Who cares? Didn't you hear what your old pal Freddy said? He got it straight from his\nsecretary who knows the broker that talked to the guy who was in on the deal. As soon as the investing\npublic gets onto it that stock is gonna take off like a rocket. You'll be rich, Charley! Think of it—rich!\nAnd you can tell that stupid boss of yours to take his job and stick it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-98-101-the-inside-man-by-bill-dunbar-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-98-101-the-inside-man-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-3-98-101-the-inside-man-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c04-four-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:4 (116-122): Fourier Spectral Analysis by William T. Taylor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fourier Spectral Analysis\nby William T. Taylor
Introduction
Because many commodity and stock prices appear to exhibit some cyclical movement, it is important\nfor the trader who relies on this characteristic feature to recognize these cycles and adjust the parameters\nof the particular technical trading system in use, accordingly. For example, the trader may wish to filter\nout or accentuate cycles of particular lengths using moving averages, Commodity Channel Index, or any\nnumber of popular trading systems.
Some cycles can be seen, more or less, on the price charts from commercial charting services or\ncomputer-generated charts from some of the popular microcomputer programs available to the trader. I\nsay \""more or less\"" because these charts show only a relatively short time period on each page, particularly\nif the data is on a daily basis.
Wouldn't it be nice if there were some technique for identifying and categorizing cyclical components by\nvarious frequencies and amplitudes, given actual price data over relatively long time periods? Well, there\nis such a technique. It is called Spectral Analysis.
Derived from the word spectrum, meaning a continuous sequence or range, Spectral Analysis is a\nstatistical procedure used to evaluate a time series of data that produces an evaluation of the various\ncyclical components of that data. It is based on a mathematical concept called Fourier Analysis, named\nafter the French mathematician Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier. The fundamental theory of Fourier Analysis\nis that any time series is made up of components of sine and cosine wave forms of various frequencies\nand amplitudes. These components are summed for each point in the time series to produce a\nfrequency/amplitude series of data, called a Fourier Series."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-116-122-fourier-spectral-analysis-by-william-t-taylor-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-116-122-fourier-spectral-analysis-by-william-t-taylor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-116-122-fourier-spectral-analysis-by-william-t-taylor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c04-max-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:4 (123-129): Maximum Entropy Optimization by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. and Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Maximum Entropy Optimization\nby Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. and Jack K. Hutson
The Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) is a promising new system for short-term Spectrum Analysis\nand trend forecasting. In this article we discuss the process of obtaining an optimal set of MEM\ncoefficients using the author's code as adapted to the Compu-Trac system.
The basic theory and terminology associated with the MEM method are discussed in a Technical Analysis\narticle \""An Introduction to Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) Technical Analysis\"", published\nJanuary/February 1984. To review some of the major points, MEM is a system which can provide high\nresolution Spectra for identifying the dominant data cycles, using relatively short time series. (Fourier\nAnalysis, in contrast, gives best results when applied to time series on the order of six-months to a year or\nlonger.) Moreover, the MEM fit coefficients may be used to produce a data forecast which is consistent\nwith the identified cycles. However, this system is more complex to use than Fourier Analysis, since its\napplication requires following an optimization process. In the author's system, one can select either\nautomatic optimization or manual fit selection for optimizing the MEM data fit."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-123-129-maximum-entropy-optimization-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-and-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-123-129-maximum-entropy-optimization-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-and-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-123-129-maximum-entropy-optimization-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-and-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c04-sed-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:4 (132-135): The Seduction of Leverage by Jesse H. Thompson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Seduction of Leverage\nby Jesse H. Thompson
\""Leverage 'o Leverage. Ye siren of the speculative sea...\""\n--Anon.
Rule: Do Not Overtrade!
I must have bumped into this time worn dictrum a thousand times before I began to understand more\nfully the implications of this rule relative to actions taken in speculative markets.
Of course, early in my studies I decided this rule was simply common sense and too basic to waste any\nfurther time or effort on, So I vowed to never overtrade and simple as that I was through with this rule.\n(Well, maybe I was through with this rule but it was NOT through with me.)
First, I did not stop to carefully define and identify the nature of this great ogre called Overtrading.\nBeing so blinded, I failed to fully master the technique of How not to overtrade! It is not enough to\nempirically discover or intellectually agree that overtrading or any other trading sin is financially harmful,\na trader must acquire the technique of translating this rule into action. A similar analogy can be applied to\nsuccessful speculation, as it is not merely the' ability to analyze something, it is the further ability to\ntranslate that information into a practical and profitable technique of entry and exit.
A trading rule like a pearl of a precious necklace can only be strung and truly called yours after you have\nacquired a thorough understanding of its definition, its implications for action and can integrate this\ninformation into your trading operations. Only then can this rule be of great practical value."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-132-135-the-seduction-of-leverage-by-jesse-h-thompson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-132-135-the-seduction-of-leverage-by-jesse-h-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-132-135-the-seduction-of-leverage-by-jesse-h-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c04-nov-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:4 (142-145): NOVICE SPECULATOR: An Anti-COMMODEX System by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NOVICE SPECULATOR: An\nAnti-COMMODEX System\nby John Sweeney
One observation I made when starting technical analysis was that there were relatively few bits of data\nto work with: price, volume, and open interest for a given futures contract and its related contracts and\nindices. Thus, any \""black box\"" I constructed to forecast price action would be dependent on these inputs.
I didn't want to repeat others' work (perhaps poorly), so my first thought was simply to find the advisory\nservice which had best exploited each one of these variables—or a combination of them—and sign up. I\nfigured years of experience would beat my novice's analysis.
I soon learned that almost all advisory systems are predicated on price action alone. The focus is natural\nsince most people intend to take their profits on price movement, not volume or open interest. The result\nof this focus is a dearth of folks who integrate price movement with other \""primary\"" data; open interest,\nvolume, etc.
One exception to this at the time was the COMMODEX system, which is unique in its long history of\napplication, use of volume and open interest along with price (through two moving averages), and a\ncompletely mechanical application. It is a fully disclosed system, too, which meant I wouldn't be working\nwith a mystery machine. It covered every commodity in which I was interested and it gave daily signals, a\nfeature I thought important at the time. The price was right and I signed up the same day I got my\nmonitor, computer and printer!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-142-145-novice-speculator-an-anti-commodex-system-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-142-145-novice-speculator-an-anti-commodex-system-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-4-142-145-novice-speculator-an-anti-commodex-system-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c05-cob-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:5 (151-157): COBWEB DYNAMICS: Microeconomic Basis for Technical Stock Market Analysis by Kent Kachigan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""COBWEB DYNAMICS:\nMicroeconomic Basis for Technical Stock\nMarket Analysis\nby Kent Kachigan
Introduction
For many years, investors, analysts and economists have been debating whether the theories developed by\ntechnical stock market analysts have their foundations in traditional microeconomic theory. While many\ntechnical stock market analysts intuitively believe that their theories are associated with supply and\ndemand, they have not yet been able to demonstrate this connection. I present an idea demonstrating the\nlink between microeconomic theories and technical stock market analysis in hope that this will allow\nthese now opposing views to combine their efforts, so that investors, analysts, and economists can\nincrease their understanding of price fluctuations.
My objective is threefold: to justify and explain the economic basis of technical stock market analysis, to\nidentify and understand the implications of shifting supply and demand curves, and to understand the\neffects of the slope relationship between the supply and demand curves on the pattern of price\nfluctuations. To achieve these objectives, a theoretical economic process will be defined and\ndemonstrated, using supply and demand curves with cobweb dynamics. The price fluctuations generated\nby each cobweb dynamic process will then be graphed against time. Next, the technical stock market\npattern that approximates the price fluctuations generated by the individual cobweb will be determined\nand defined. The common properties between each cobweb dynamic process and a major technical stock\nmarket pattern will be shown. These common properties support the proposition that cobweb dynamic\nprocesses form the microeconomic basis for technical stock market analysis. After the theoretical basis\nhas been demonstrated, a return to the supply and demand curves will allow us to reinterpret the technical\nbuy and sell signals defined by the technical analysts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-151-157-cobweb-dynamics-microeconomic-basis-for-technical-stock-market-analysis-by-kent-kachigan-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-151-157-cobweb-dynamics-microeconomic-basis-for-technical-stock-market-analysis-by-kent-kachigan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-151-157-cobweb-dynamics-microeconomic-basis-for-technical-stock-market-analysis-by-kent-kachigan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c05-stock-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:5 (158-163): Is The Stock Market Random? by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Is The Stock Market Random?\nby Bill Dunbar
Professor Aikinheit of the Economics Department strokes the bottom of his mustache up out of the\nway, tips his martini glass and drains the last precious drops. \""Have another?\""
Joe Grubber licks his upper lip and belches, \""Yeah!\""
The professor leans forward with fervent intensity. \""As I was saying, you take this drunk and turn him\nloose in the middle of a football field, right on the fifty yard line, see, then watch him stagger around. As\nhe lurches this way and that it's a good imitation of stock prices. If he staggers toward the east goal it's a\ngain, if he staggers west it's a loss, and if he stumbles toward the sidelines it's zero. It's called the Random\nWalk Hypothesis.\""
\""That means I'll do better in the stock market if I stay drunk all the time.\""
\""No it doesn't. It doesn't mean any such thing.\""
Joe holds his cocktail glass up to the light and peers into its limpid soul as if expecting a revelation of\nsome ancient wisdom. \""Well, what the hell does it mean?\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-158-163-is-the-stock-market-random-by-bill-dunbar-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-158-163-is-the-stock-market-random-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-158-163-is-the-stock-market-random-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c05-trad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:5 (164-166): Trading Stock Index Options by Paul A. Kazmierczak"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Stock Index Options\nby Paul A. Kazmierczak
The Moving Window-Spectral method is a promising new technique of technical analysis. It is\nparticularly appealing because it analyzes historical data in terms of multiple wave functions, as opposed\nto the various trend approximations utilized by conventional methods of analysis. Mere visual inspection\nof historical data indicates the cyclical nature of the stock market. Conventional trend approximation\ntechniques are inappropriate to the task of forecasting turning points in a cyclical\nmarket.-Philosophically, a wave-function approach seems much more suited to the task of forecasting\ncyclical events.
I am currently using STOCKER1, a computer software program, to successfully forecast over a dozen\nstock indices that have options trading. Examples of these indices are the Standard & Poors (SP100) and\nAmerican Stock Exchange (AMEX). In forecasting indices, I have found STOCKER1 to be an easy to\nuse and above all reliable means of identifying trading opportunities (see Reviews Technical Analysis\nMay/June 1984). My weekly computer updating and forecasting of these indices can be completed in as\nlittle as two hours, alerting me well in advance of upcoming significant trading opportunities. A recent\nforecast on the AMEX Index provided me with the means for a very profitable trading opportunity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-164-166-trading-stock-index-options-by-paul-a-kazmierczak-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-164-166-trading-stock-index-options-by-paul-a-kazmierczak-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-164-166-trading-stock-index-options-by-paul-a-kazmierczak-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c05-mov-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:5 (169-173): Moving Window Spectral Method: Price Forecasting With Cycles by A.D. Ridley, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving Window—Spectral Method: Price\nForecasting With Cycles\nby A.D. Ridley, Ph.D.
I would-like to introduce a new method of stock market forecasting with a practical application. The\nMoving Window-Spectral (MWS) method [1] takes advantage of the cyclical nature of stock, bond,\ncommodity and other prices to forecast prices. I've included an example to illustrate systematic\nestimation and forecasting, and a trading rule as well.
Theory
While the theory on which the following discussion is based is applicable to multivariate time series\nanalysis, trading an index, stock or commodity, is a univariate application. In univariate time series\nanalysis, only a single variable is examined. One price time series is all that is required for the\nexamination . I believe multivariate analysis is not likely to add very much to stock market analysis and\nforecasting. (Even if other explanatory variables were helpful, they would not be known to the trader. In\norder to be useful input, other variables must be known in advance. This is rarely possible.)
Univariate analysis does not implicitly deny the existence and relevance of other variables. Instead it is\nassumed that their effects are embedded in the time series. The emphasis then, must be on efficient\nmethods of extracting this imbedded information from the time series.
The Moving Window-Spectral (MWS) is a computer algorithm that takes advantage of the cyclical nature\nof the stock market to perform information extraction. The computer code performs two stages of\nexecution. In the first stage, a history of observations is examined, and the relationship between values in\ndifferent time periods calculated.
The relationships are represented as numerical parameters. In the second stage, these parameters are used\nto estimate future values from the time series. These estimates comprise the forecast on which the trader\nmay base decision-making."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-169-173-moving-window-spectral-method-price-forecasting-with-cycles-by-a-d-ridley-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-169-173-moving-window-spectral-method-price-forecasting-with-cycles-by-a-d-ridley-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-169-173-moving-window-spectral-method-price-forecasting-with-cycles-by-a-d-ridley-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c05-dec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:5 (174-180): Decision Making by Fred Gehm"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Decision Making\nby Fred Gehm
One group of techniques that traders should know more about are those for multiple-criteria decision\nmaking. These techniques allow the trader to simultaneously analyze a number of alternatives in terms of\na number of attributes or criteria, allowing the traders to simultaneously maximize rewards and minimize\nrisks. Most of the powerful and interesting multiple-criteria decision making techniques require a\ncomputer, but some can be done freehand.
One of the easiest and most valuable decision making techniques available is also one of the oldest.\nTradeoff analysis seems to have been first discussed by Benjamin Franklin in a 1772 letter to Joseph\nPriestley. I will not attempt to improve on Franklin's prose and will therefore quote his entire letter.
\""London, Sept. 19, 1772
Dear Sir,
In the affair of so much importance to you, wherein you ask my advice, I cannot, for want of sufficient\npremises, advise you what to determine, but if you please I will tell you how. When those difficult cases\noccur, they are difficult chiefly because while we have them under consideration, all the reasons pro and\ncon a re not present to the mind at the same time; but sometimes one set present themselves, and at other\ntimes another, the first being out of sight. Hence the various purposes or inclinations that alternatively\nprevail, and the uncertainty that perplexes us. To get over this, my way is to divide half a sheet of paper\nby a line into two columns; writing over the one Pro, and over the other Con. Then during three or four\ndays' consideration, I put down under the different heads short hints of the different motives, that at\ndifferent times occur to me, for or against the measure. When I have thus got them all together in one\nview, I endeavor to estimate their respective weights: and where I find two, one on each side, that seem equal, I strike them both out. If I find a reason pro equal to some two reasons con, I strike out the three.\nIf I judge some two reasons con, equal to some three reasons Pro, I strike out the five; and thus\nproceeding I find at length where the balance lies; and if, after a day or two of further consideration,\nnothing new that is of importance occurs on either side, I come to a determination accordingly. And,\nthough the weight of reasons cannot be taken with the precision of algebraic quantities, yet when each is\nthus considered, separately and comparatively, and the whole lies before me, I think I can judge better,\nand am less liable to make a rash step, and in fact I have found great ad vantage from this kind of\nequation, in what may be called moral or prudential algebra.
Wishing sincerely that you may determine for the best, I am ever, my dear friend, yours most\naffectionately.
B. Franklin\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-174-180-decision-making-by-fred-gehm-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-174-180-decision-making-by-fred-gehm-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-174-180-decision-making-by-fred-gehm-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c05-expo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:5 (182-183): Exponentially Smoothed Moving Averages by Donald R. Lambert"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Exponentially Smoothed Moving Averages\nby Donald R. Lambert
If you were to do a survey of all the many trading systems that are in common usage, it is very likely\nthat two calculation methods would be found to be leading the pack by a great margin. They are simple\nmoving averages (SMA) and exponentially smoothed moving averages (ESMA).
Most texts involving ESMA's are sprinkled with phrases describing the choice of a particular smoothing\nfactor as being equivalent to a certain number of days' SMA, or weighted moving average (WMA).
Aside from differences due to there being two schools of thought on how to compute smoothing factors,\nsome people choose l/n and others choose 2/(n + 1), where n is the number of days that the smoothing\nfactor is supposed to equate to, but there is another very important consideration. That is, the impact of an\nitem of data disappears completely from an SMA or WMA of n days on the (n + l)st day but never leaves\nan ESMA entirely.
I would propose, therefore, that a different technique be used to choose ESMA smoothing factors. Rather\nthan use just an SMA number of days (by whichever scheme) to choose the factor, we should instead use\ntwo parameters. The first of these would be the percentage of original impact that we wish an item of\ndata to utilize in a time period, and the second to be the number of days in the time period that the\npercentage should relate to."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-182-183-exponentially-smoothed-moving-averages-by-donald-r-lambert-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-182-183-exponentially-smoothed-moving-averages-by-donald-r-lambert-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-182-183-exponentially-smoothed-moving-averages-by-donald-r-lambert-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c05-book-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:5 (184-184): Book Review: by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Book Review:\nby John Sweeney
An Easy Course in Using the HP-12C and Other\nFinancial Calculators
by Chris Coffin and Ted Wadman
Grapevine Publications, Inc.
Corvallis, Oregon 97339
Price: $18.00
There seems to be something about financial calculations that boggles minds. I've taught finance\ncourses for years and I'd guess that less than 20% of introductory students finish with a solid working\nknowledge of the fundemental equation. Now Messrs. Coffin and Wadman have written a book whose\ngreat value is not its explanation of a particular calculator, but its graphic presentation and detailed\nexplanation of basic present value/future value calculations.
Coffin and Wadman don't skimp in explaining the machine itself—the first sixty pages deal with\nHewlett-Packard's stack manipulation. Still, this is widely popular financial calculator, and this subject\ngets the book's remaining 70 pages. Persons who do have a good gut feel for PV/FV manipulations can\nskip this book entirely, but if you've just been issued an HP-12C for your line of work (as many of my\nstudents have) here's where you want to dig in."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-184-184-book-review-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-184-184-book-review-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-5-184-184-book-review-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c06-for-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:6 (189-196): Forecasting With Maximum Entropy by Jack K. Hutson and Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Forecasting With Maximum Entropy\nby Jack K. Hutson and Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
The most obvious ability that stock or commodity buyers and sellers wish for is foresight. If there was\na method or technique that we could use to predict what tomorrow will bring in the market, all our\nproblems would be solved. There are people everywhere that believe one prediction method or another\nhas some validity in forecasting market behavior. I will not claim to know a method that is better than\neveryone else's nor claim that our method is better than all others. But, I will say, \""This forecasting\nmethod is statistically consistent with past price history\""!
Forecasting based on past price data can be very enlightening or can be disappointing. There is always\nenough history to draw some conclusion about probable future stock price activity. The best of forecasts\nwill have some degree of uncertainty. Maximum Entropy Method forecasts, with our computer\nimplementation, are as good as can be expected, based soley on past price information. The amount of\ndata used to forecast must be chosen with some care and common sense."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-189-196-forecasting-with-maximum-entropy-by-jack-k-hutson-and-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-189-196-forecasting-with-maximum-entropy-by-jack-k-hutson-and-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-189-196-forecasting-with-maximum-entropy-by-jack-k-hutson-and-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c06-corn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:6 (197-201): CORNERSTONE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: The Dow Theory by Timothy A. Maguire"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CORNERSTONE OF TECHNICAL\nANALYSIS:\nThe Dow Theory\nby Timothy A. Maguire
\""The necessity of the times, more than ever, calls for our utmost circumspection, deliberation, fortitude,\nand perseverance.\"" (Samuel Adams, 1771)
Historical Perspective
Charles Henry Dow, founder and first editor of the Wall Street Journal, laid the foundations for\ntechnical analysis of stock trends over eighty years ago. During his thirteen year tenure as editor, from\n1889 to 1902, Dow based his observations of the stock market upon interactions between the market\naverages he is credited with inventing. Although today referred to as the granddaddy of all technical\nmarket studies, the Dow Theory began as a fragmented series of statements in the Journal, and it is\napparent Dow never intended for his thoughts to become the integrated set of principles it is today.
The fact that the Dow Theory developed into the most widely publicized theory concerning stock price\nmovements can largely be attributed to the work of two individuals, S.A. Nelson and William Peter\nHamilton, in the early years of this century. Nelson was the first to coin the term \""Dow Theory\"", in his\n1903 book The ABC of Stock Speculation. In the book, Nelson-who was a close acquaintance of Charles\nDow-combined the varied opinions espoused by Dow in his editorials into a reasonably concise summary\nof the Theory."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-197-201-cornerstone-of-technical-analysis-the-dow-theory-by-timothy-a-maguire-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-197-201-cornerstone-of-technical-analysis-the-dow-theory-by-timothy-a-maguire-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-197-201-cornerstone-of-technical-analysis-the-dow-theory-by-timothy-a-maguire-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c06-stock-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:6 (202-206): Stock Market Business Cycle by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock Market Business Cycle\nby Bill Dunbar
Bottom fishing should be peaceful. If you're a bottom fisherman you like to recline in an open boat in\nthe cool of the morning or sit with your back against a mossy bank in the gathering dusk and watch the\nleaves drift by.
Sure, you want to catch fish, but not the athletic kind that makes it a big exercise. Too much bother.\nChasing high flyers and hot tips is for the jocks who think it's great kicks to pitch around on the brimy,\ntrolling for marlin.
True, you can't make money in the stock market without experiencing some anxiety but you'll probably\ndo better and enjoy it more if you can keep the sweating and stomach churning to a minimum. You will\nalso have more time to drink, carouse and chase women (or dream about it). That doesn't mean you can\nignore your investments, but checking a list of stocks once a week is not the same as biting your\nfingernails to the quick, agonizing over decisions to buy, sell, place stop losses, etc. If you buy a stock at\nthe bottom or near enough to the bottom, then time is on your side. Soon a year will be up and if you\nhave a capital gain you can take it without cursing the IRS, or at least not as roundly.
I have found, in my own case, that while in a state of anxiety over one or more issues my actions are\nstrongly motivated by the desire to relieve tension. As a result I am prone to make decisions that are\nprofitable only to my broker.
The study I am reporting herein all started shortly after the end of the last bull market. At the beginning\nof this year it took a while for me to admit to myself that the party was over but I finally did and got out\nof most of my portfolio at a profit."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-202-206-stock-market-business-cycle-by-bill-dunbar-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-202-206-stock-market-business-cycle-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-202-206-stock-market-business-cycle-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c06-spec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:6 (207-208): Speculation Philosophies by Jesse H. Thompson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Speculation Philosophies\nby Jesse H. Thompson
\""A great thorough-going man does not confine himself to one school, but combines many schools, as well\nas reads and listens to the arguments of many predecessors, thereby slowly forming a style of his own...,\"" Kuo Hsi, artist-priest, 11th Century China
Today's overcapacity in processing information fuels great opportunity in many ways, but where\nreward treads, risk follows. And from the vantage point of the speculator, risk deserves the greater focus\nbecause it is human nature to focus on reward with too little attention on risk. The old adage, \""Take care\nof your losses and your profits will take care of themselves,\"" invokes a risk-focus instead of the\nreward-focus, commonly entertained by most market participants. One risk of an overcapacity to process\ninformation is the disrepute of enduring principles. Enduring principles by their very nature are\nindomitable, though capable of addition and expansion to obtain a greater polish, they remain invincible.
Dickson Watts, a speculator from the late 1800's said: \""Learn principles. The facts will then fall into their\nproper relations and connections.\""
Without the learning of principles, our ability to progress as students of market behavior is slackened.\nLet's examine a few principles yielding from dusty bookshelves:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-207-208-speculation-philosophies-by-jesse-h-thompson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-207-208-speculation-philosophies-by-jesse-h-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-207-208-speculation-philosophies-by-jesse-h-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c06-mom-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:6 (209-211): Momentum Indicators and Market Cycles by John Nicholas"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Momentum Indicators and Market Cycles\nby John Nicholas
The techniques used for stock and commodity analysis range from the naively simple to the stunningly\ncomplex. Some are based on sound mathematical and philosophical principles while others border on\nwitchcraft. This article discusses one major indicator and how it relates to price movement.
We often hear the markets described as \""overbought\"" or \""oversold\"". Usually \""oscillators\"" are used to help\ndefine these conditions. These same \""oscillators\"" were called \""momentum\"" by Larry Williams. In\nstatistics, they are termed \""moving percentages\"", \""rate-of-change\"", or \""differencing\"". All of these terms\nrefer to basically the same mathematical procedure. We will use the term \""differencing\"" for the remainder\nof the article.
As the name implies, differencing involves subtraction, specifically the subtraction of a price some\nnumber of days in the past from the most recent price. If each day we were to subtract the closing price of\nsome commodity ten days in the past from today's price we would be differencing over a ten day interval.\nThe number we would calculate would be both positive and negative and would tend to move from one\nextreme, through zero, and the other extreme, up and down in a rather regular pattern. The interval that is\nused in differencing is very important. In order to illustrate how the length of the interval effects the\nbehavior of this indicator, we'll apply various intervals of differencing to one data set."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-209-211-momentum-indicators-and-market-cycles-by-john-nicholas-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-209-211-momentum-indicators-and-market-cycles-by-john-nicholas-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-209-211-momentum-indicators-and-market-cycles-by-john-nicholas-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c06-invest-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:6 (212-216): Investment Software Benefits by Gerald Frankel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Investment Software Benefits\nby Gerald Frankel
Is there a computer system for the professional technical analyst? In this article, we will take a candid\nlook at a typical technical analyst's experiences with computers and software.
Finding a computer system that will do what you want—and maybe a few things you haven't thought of\nyet—is something like buying a car or stereo. You're dazzled by all the things it promises to do, but if\nyou wait a while the next model promises to be even Jazzier.
Both fear of computers and an unrealistic faith in their worldly powers can frustrate an analyst's efforts to\nexpand his or her analytical powers with timely data and reporting capabilities. Tom Dowse reports that\nhe has overcome his own initial anxiety about working with computers and has acquired a valuable\nperspective of what he can expect. Generally, his experience seems to show that a range of software is\nreally needed to accomplish the volume of data processing, analyzing, and reporting functions required to\nserve his clients and manage their investment portfolios.
Bunje Dowse & Corp., San Francisco, provides comprehensive services in financial and investment\nmanagement. Dowse is a technical analyst whose credentials include degrees of JD (law), CPA, MBA\n(business). He directs the strategic economic planning services offered to Bunje Dowse clients and\nmanages marketable securities through an affiliate, Dowse Securities Management Corp. The analyst's\nbusiness experience includes private law practice and several years with Price Waterhouse & Company\nas a tax specialist. Dowse is also co-founder of Bank of America's Executive Financial Counseling\nService.
Sharing some of the experiences of Dowse, both a technical analyst and financial consultant, might be\nhelpful in formulating your own computer needs, avoiding costly guesswork and prevent a few bad\ninvestments."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-212-216-investment-software-benefits-by-gerald-frankel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-212-216-investment-software-benefits-by-gerald-frankel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-212-216-investment-software-benefits-by-gerald-frankel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c06-sidebt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:6 (212-216): SIDEBAR: Trend again? by Jesse H. Thompson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trend again?\nby Jesse H. Thompson
If you look closely at the method and approach ascribed to such market masters as Dow, Wyckoff,\nLivermore, Gann, Dunnigan and Jackson, you find trend stated as a primary consideration in all of their\nmarket operations. A philosophy which has as its emphasis the definition of trend and its goal as trading\nin harmony with trend, carries with it the great advantage of probability. The momentum of an\nestablished trend is not an advantage to be overlooked.
Franklin P. Jackson typifies this attitude in his 1951 course The Golden Harvest:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-212-216-sidebar-trend-again-by-jesse-h-thompson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-212-216-sidebar-trend-again-by-jesse-h-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-212-216-sidebar-trend-again-by-jesse-h-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v02-c06-fin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-2-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.2:6 (221-223): Financial Futures by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Financial Futures\nby John Sweeney
When you're on top, don't believe it.
There's nothing like winning to upset your equilibrium. You can win—and still lose. This article is a\nblow-by-blow account of two trades that were unrelated but, through me, managed to befoul each other. I\nstill think back on these events with anguish. \""I was right!\"" I keep telling myself. But in the end, I went\nwrong and, since this series is about novices' mistakes, I'll tell you the story. It may do you some good, it\nhas me.
Think back to late 1983. What's happening in the financial complex? Well, bonds are backing and filling\nwhile bills rise steadily and the Euro-currencies are off on a declining tangent of their own. The\nDeutschemark, in particular, was bothering me because it wasn't obediently following U.S. interest rates.\nAfter October 1, it seemed bent on destroying my 90%+ correlation with T-Bills and heading for the\ncellar."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-221-223-financial-futures-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-221-223-financial-futures-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-2-6-221-223-financial-futures-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c01-chart-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:1 (13-18): Chart Congestion Analysis by Holliston Hill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Chart Congestion Analysis\nby Holliston Hill
Congestion areas appear in all markets whether it be gold, soybeans, IBM, or the Dow Jones Industrial\nAverage. Being able to recognize the different types of congestion areas and knowing what they will lead\nto, can help the investor reap great profits.
A congestion area is a price level in which neither the bulls or bears are in complete control.\nAccumulation and distribution are other names for congestion areas. The market cannot make up its mind\nin which direction it wants to go. Congestion areas are pauses in the market action; many traders step\naside to see what will happen next. During a congestion area the market fluctuates within a certain price\nrange. These areas usually signal continuation or reversal in the previous market direction. Congestion\narea analysis can be applied to stocks or commodities or to any time frame whether it be a five minute\nchart, hourly chart, daily chart weekly or monthly chart. Because of the significance that congestion areas\nhave in the movement of the market, it is important that the astute technician be aware of when they\noccur and what they lead to. I will define the different types of congestion areas and what each area\nsignals."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-13-18-chart-congestion-analysis-by-holliston-hill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-13-18-chart-congestion-analysis-by-holliston-hill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-13-18-chart-congestion-analysis-by-holliston-hill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c01-sell-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:1 (19-21): Selling Stock With Investor Relations by Carolyn Kott Washburne"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Selling Stock With Investor Relations\nby Carolyn Kott Washburne
A veteran stock broker took aside a new trainee to give him some advice. \""There is an old saying in\nthis business,\"" said the veteran. \""When the president of a company wants to buy you lunch, the stock is\noverpriced. If he refuses to pick up the tab, buy the stock immediately.\""
He paused and smiled at the puzzled trainee. \""What that means is that by the time a company goes on the\nroad to pitch its stock, there isn't much of a story there for investors. Wait until things get better.\""
The veteran's advice gives a clue to the nature of investor relations in U.S. businesses today. The\nrelationships that publicly-held companies maintain with the investment community and with individual\nshareholders play an important role in how their stocks will be rated and traded. Similar to public\nrelations, yet much more sophisticated, a good investor-relations program can have a significant impact\non a company's image, stock price and ability to raise operating capital.
Each company's approach to investor relations varies, depending on its size and what it produces, but\nthere are some common elements. The person responsible for investor relations in a small company is\nusually the vice president of finance, the treasurer, or public relations director; a larger company may\nhave a vice president or manager of investor relations who supervises a small staff. Sometimes this staff\nis temporarily augmented during the proxy solicitation period prior to the annual meeting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-19-21-selling-stock-with-investor-relations-by-carolyn-kott-washburne-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-19-21-selling-stock-with-investor-relations-by-carolyn-kott-washburne-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-19-21-selling-stock-with-investor-relations-by-carolyn-kott-washburne-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c01-prob-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:1 (22-25): Probability of Investment Ruin by Sherwin Kalt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Probability of Investment Ruin\nby Sherwin Kalt
When a client opens a managed account with as commodity trading advisor, the general practice is to\nspecify a percentage loss at which the account will be closed. The natural question then arises as to what\nare the chances that this will happen within a given time period, for example, six months or a year. Given\ncertain empirically determined characteristics of the trading system, this paper provides a method for\nsolving this problem directly. The method can also be used in analyzing investments other than\ncommodity managed accounts. It can be used in any case where the assumptions made are found\napplicable.
Decisions are presently being made by prospective investors without explicit knowledge as to the risk of\nruin (i.e. account closing) that is being taken. Parameters, such as the Sharpe ratio, or the standard\ndeviation of the rate of return, are only of use in ranking trading systems in some general order. Lack of\nknowledge of the risk being taken can lead to disillusionment on the part of the investor. In the long term\nthe situation is very harmful to the industry. It is hoped that this paper will increase the capability to\nquantify the characteristics of trading systems being analyzed. The result will be more informed decisions\non the part of the investment community."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-22-25-probability-of-investment-ruin-by-sherwin-kalt-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-22-25-probability-of-investment-ruin-by-sherwin-kalt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-22-25-probability-of-investment-ruin-by-sherwin-kalt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c01-thef-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:1 (26-27): Theft? Commodity Floor Brokers by Allen D. Hanson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Theft? Commodity Floor Brokers\nby Allen D. Hanson
Questionable trading practices in the Securities business became very evident to me during my years as\nproduct manager for a major corporation and later as a licensed floor broker.
In those days, I owned individual seats on two of the nation's registered stock and commodity exchanges.\nI routinely carried commodity positions so large that they required daily reporting to the CEA\n(Commodities Exchange Authority), the governing body at that time. I also acted as an independent floor\nbroker for a major brokerage house and other firms, always doing any personal trading and\norder-handling concurrently. As a floor broker and seat owner, I also represented this brokerage in their\ndaily settlement with the clearing house at the exchange during the 1970's. I handled commodity delivery,\nclearing house reporting, pit trading, cash transfers, error accounting, spreading, house accounts,\ncustomer orders, margin account problems, exchange regulations, and I often opened and closed pit\ntrading.
When I left the exchanges, I left \""clean\"", but I think I know and understand every trick or procedure ever\ninvented to buy, sell, invest, deploy or even steal funds for gain, and do it in such a way that no one but\nan expert really sees what is going on.
The commodity futures trading industry is expanding rapidly, with increased trading volume year after\nyear. If the present trend continues, there will be more than 157 million futures contracts traded during\n1984, for another all-time high. Unfortunately, as the trading volume grows, so does the amount of\n\""questionable practices\"" involved in some of these trades. Participation in fraud by some of the insiders\n(floor brokers) is broad and flagrant, and what's worse, the people involved are not likely to talk about\ntheir activities even after they leave the commodities business. In the stock and commodity industry a\n\""convicted player\"" is totally out of the game; forever. The \""penalty box\"" in commodities is permanent and\nalmost irrevocable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-26-27-theft-commodity-floor-brokers-by-allen-d-hanson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-26-27-theft-commodity-floor-brokers-by-allen-d-hanson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-26-27-theft-commodity-floor-brokers-by-allen-d-hanson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c01-day-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:1 (28-29): Day Trading With Stochastics by John F. Kepka"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Day Trading With Stochastics\nby John F. Kepka
I have been using the Stochastics oscillator \""K\"" and \""%D\"" for well over a year (RE: May and Sep 1984\nissues of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine). I use Stochastics, (in conjunction with\nother indicators), with futures intraday data from half-hourly down to 1 minute bar charts. Initially, I tried\nto use the Stochastics indicator as outlined in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, but I quickly\nlearned that the \""clearly illustrated\"" patterns were largely non-existent in real time intraday trading. By\nfollowing the general rules, the \""Set-up\"" rapidly became expensive. Even \""shooting from the hip\"" was\nbetter.
After considerable experimentation, I concluded that I definitely preferred the regular \""K\"" and \""%D\"" and\nnot the slow version for both daily and intraday analysis. I like the \""K\"" values for a quick indications of\noverbought and oversold. I have explored different time periods for the oscillator as well as different time\nperiods for price bars. For the Standard and Poors (S&P) 500, I currently trade 5-minute time bars with a\n10-period stochastics oscillator. Unless the market is moving in short cycles with greater amplitude, the\nstandard 5-period stochastics is too \""whippy\"" on intraday data. This is a recent event stemming from the\nfact that larger institutional participation has reduced some of the past futures market volatility.
Chart 1 illustrates a 5-minute bar chart, using the Intra-Day Analyst (IDA) computer software, viewing\nthe September S&P 500 futures beginning around 1:00 PM on June 28, 1984 and continuing through\nJune 29. Table 1 (IDA format) provides actual times, prices, and oscillator values necessary to resolve the\npatterns. Chart 2 is simply an extension of Chart 1. The \""K\"" line is drawn as solid and \""%D\"" line is\ndashed. Immediately you can see that these lines are not nearly as smooth nor as crisp as those illustrated\non page 99-100 in the May 1984 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-28-29-day-trading-with-stochastics-by-john-f-kepka-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-28-29-day-trading-with-stochastics-by-john-f-kepka-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-28-29-day-trading-with-stochastics-by-john-f-kepka-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c01-stoc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:1 (32-36): Stock Market Double-Header? by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock Market Double-Header?\nby Bill Dunbar
On the long side it's easy to make money in stocks at the beginning of a well-defined bull market. If\nyou pick your issues by throwing darts or consulting your astrologer, or even listening to your investment\nadvisor, you can hardly go wrong. The chances are on your side. But it's possible to improve your\nperformance if you're in the right industry group. Usually all groups rise during the first few months of\nthe bull market, but then some go on to higher ground, some start pitching about and some keel over and\nslide down the river. If you pick your issues from industry groups that are perceived as having the most\nfavorable business climate, then your chances are enhanced. At least that's the conventional logic and I\nhave an idea how I could check it against reality but that will take some time. For the present, if you\naccept it as a true truism, then this article may make some sense. If not, it won't.
The Non-Carryover Hypothesis
The following quote was taken from the Wall Street Journal (ref. 1) soon after August 1, 1984. \""We don't\nbelieve it's the beginning of a bull market,\"" says Joseph H. Barthel, director of technical strategy for\nButcher and Singer, Inc. He cautions against believing that the August 1982 bull market is being\nduplicated: \""One of the ear marks of any bull market beginning is a change of market leadership.\"" He\nsays the 1978-80 bull market was led by oil stocks, while consumer-oriented stocks took control in late\n1982 and into 1983. \""The same (consumer-oriented) stocks are doing it again, so there is no change in\nleadership,\"" Mr. Barthel concludes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-32-36-stock-market-double-header-by-bill-dunbar-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-32-36-stock-market-double-header-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-32-36-stock-market-double-header-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c01-rev-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:1 (37-42): Reviews: EASI/ARIMA"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SOFTWARE REVIEW:\nby John F. Kepka
EASI/ARIMA — THE 2% SOLUTION
The Winchendon Group, Inc.
3907 Lakota Road
P.O. Box 10339
Alexandria, VA 22310
(703) 960-2587
PRICE: $350.00 ($50.00 discount for prepaid.)
Summary:
Ease of Use: A
Documentation: A
Reliability: A
Error Handling: B+
Vendor Support: A
Hardware Requirements:
Apple II or Compatible
48K minimum memory
Two Disk Drives
Printer (optional but recommended)
EASI/ARIMA - The 2% Solution is as the name implies is easy to use, and it does, in fact, provide\nforecasts within a mean error of 2%. Many of the price forecasts I ran were less than 1% error. In a\nnutshell, my overall impression is that the package is excellent and represents good value in its effortless\nuse to provide meaningful forecasts from a broad spectrum of readily available database formats.\nAdditionally, the ARIMA technique is not limited to price forecasting and may be used to forecast sales,\nchemical viscosities, airline miles flown, or any other time series.
I had the opportunity to test the latest Apple Version 3.0. (A similar software version is available for the\nIBM PC. This is furnished in compiled BASIC which runs two to three times faster than the Apple.)\nFrom the moment I opened the package, I underwent an enjoyable experience. The Apple EASI/ARIMA\ncomes with a manual, a primer, a utility disk, and program disk. Both diskettes are copyable so backup\ncopies are never a problem. The primer is specific to the user's requirements and is intended to bridge the\ngap between the computer output and its usage. In this case the futures version provides examples of the\noutput and some pointers on how the author would use the forecasts in real life situations by \""walking\nthrough\"" three examples of DMarks, Gold, and Wheat Futures. Sample databases are supplied so that the\nmaterial in the primer can be duplicated. The primer was written by a man in tune to speculative markets\nand provides sufficient working knowledge without the necessity of a sophisticated statistical background."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-37-42-reviews-easi-arima-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-37-42-reviews-easi-arima-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-1-37-42-reviews-easi-arima-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c02-lead-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:2 (52-56): LEADING INDICATORS FROM FOURIER SPECTRAL ANALYSIS by William T. Taylor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LEADING INDICATORS FROM FOURIER\nSPECTRAL ANALYSIS\nby William T. Taylor
The purpose of this article is to expand upon my previous work July 1984 Technical Analysis of Stocks\n& Commodities magazine) into an area not normally discussed as part of Spectral Analysis, that is, the\ndetection and measurement of phase (lead or lag) relationships of cyclical components from two or more\ntime series. In certain cases where there are dominant cyclical components of the same length in two or\nmore time series, it can be important to know if there is a lead or lag relationship on which to anticipate\nchanges in direction of one price based on the knowledge of, for example, the leading nature of another\nprice.
I will begin with a discussion of the basic nature of cycles followed by a brief explanation of Spectral\nAnalysis. Emphasis is on how to interpret the results rather than the mathematics behind the procedure.\nThis topic is discussed at some length in the earlier article (mentioned above) and the reader is invited to\nlook there first for a better understanding of how this analytical tool is put to use."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-52-56-leading-indicators-from-fourier-spectral-analysis-by-william-t-taylor-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-52-56-leading-indicators-from-fourier-spectral-analysis-by-william-t-taylor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-52-56-leading-indicators-from-fourier-spectral-analysis-by-william-t-taylor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c02-writ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:2 (57-58): Writing Neutral Options Spreads by Scott Silver"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Writing Neutral Options Spreads\nby Scott Silver
Most investment advisors, stockbrokers and the like give their clients investment advice such as \""Buy\nIBM stock, the market's going up,\"" or \""There's a glut of oil on the market, sell Exxon,\"" etc., etc.\nInvestment advisors for pension plans and portfolio managers of large institution accounts trade the\nmarket by buying and selling stock market indexes, futures and options. These are group mixtures of\nstocks ranging from 50 to over 1,000 stocks. All of these people- investors, advisors, brokers, etc., have\none thing in common: They want the market to move in their direction.
A neutral option writer is a different type of investor. In fact, he does not care in which direction the\nmarket goes as long as his accounts (books) are balanced. He sells overvalued calls (rights to buy) and\novervalued puts (rights to sell) of a stock or commodity, and then during the life of that option, continues\nto keep his \""books\"" balanced so that wherever the issue expires, he collects all of the option premium.\nThis neutral option strategy is called a strangle.
In October 1984, the Gold market traded in a narrow range, David L. Caplan sold puts of February 1985\nGold at 320 and calls of February 1985 Gold at 380. To do this he put up only $700 in margin, to insure\nthat he would pay for any losses though the commodity exchange, and collected a $700 premium. Caplan\nauthors a newsletter Opportunities in Options and heads up the Commodities and Options Department of\nJesup & Lamont Securities Co., Inc. in Los Angeles."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-57-58-writing-neutral-options-spreads-by-scott-silver-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-57-58-writing-neutral-options-spreads-by-scott-silver-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-57-58-writing-neutral-options-spreads-by-scott-silver-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c02-howg-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:2 (59-63): How Good is The Dow Theory? PART I by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How Good is The Dow Theory?\nPART I\nby Bill Dunbar
An excellent article on the Dow Theory appeared in the December 1984 issue of this magazine, written\nby Timothy A. Maguire. The present article may be looked on as an extension of that one but since\nMaguire and I are two different people, you can expect from me a different treatment and a different\nviewpoint.
The whole Dow Theory idea started from a series of editorials appearing during the years 1900-1902 in\nthe Wall Street Journal, written by Charles H. Dow, one of the founders of the Dow Jones Company and\nthe first editor of the Journal. His observations were based on the market averages that he started in 1884\nwith eleven stocks, which he considered to be representative of the equities world of that era.
The list included nine railroads, the real blue chips at that time and a very important segment of the\nmarket. In 1897 the list was expanded and split into 12 Industrials and 20 railroads, and in 1928 the\nIndustrials were extended to include 30, the number maintained to the present. In 1970 the Rails became\nthe Transportation average with the inclusion of other types of carriers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-59-63-how-good-is-the-dow-theory-part-i-by-bill-dunbar-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-59-63-how-good-is-the-dow-theory-part-i-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-59-63-how-good-is-the-dow-theory-part-i-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c02-med-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:2 (64-65): Median Line Market Analysis by Thomas E. French"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Median Line Market Analysis\nby Thomas E. French
The Median Line (ML) method of market analysis was first developed by Professor Alan Hall Andrews,\na Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) engineering graduate. The Median Line technique of\ngeometric technical analysis is also referred to by some as the Andrews line method. The purpose of a\nMedian Line is to predict a price point where the market will reverse.
The basic concept behind the method is really simplicity itself, that of action and reaction. Andrews, who\nI have worked closely with over the past couple of years studying and applying his methods, credits his\nlate friend Roger W. Babson (early 1930's) with helping him develop this technique. Babson applied Sir\nIsaac Newton's law of physics, that actions and reactions are equal and opposite, to market analysis. From\nthese conceptual beginnings Andrews evolved his own method of market analysis.
The cornerstone of this entire approach is the Median Line (ML). Before exploring this further we should\ndefine median. The dictionary states median means in the middle or a line that divides into two equal\nparts. Charts 1, 2, and 3 graphically depict this concept. The dashed line represents a ML intersecting a\nstraight line at the point denoted by a circle. Note that regardless of the of the straight line, the ML\nintercept represents a point where there exists an equal amount above as well as below the point of\nintersection. This is indicated in Chart 1 where AB = BC, in Chart 2 where DE = EF, and in Chart 3\nwhere GH = HI. The point to note in each case is that the ML actually bisects the straight line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-64-65-median-line-market-analysis-by-thomas-e-french-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-64-65-median-line-market-analysis-by-thomas-e-french-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-64-65-median-line-market-analysis-by-thomas-e-french-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c02-nov-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:2 (66-68): Novice Speculator Trading Plan by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Novice Speculator Trading Plan\nby John Sweeney
When all the waiting is done and a new trade is signaled I can at last, get to work. However, it's not to\nburn up the wires to Chicago — it's paperwork that needs to be done, before the job even starts!
Actually, if things are working right, I'll be making out my trading plan a week to two weeks ahead of the\ntrade. Then it gets a yellow paper clip and goes into my pile of daily logs awaiting execution—right next\nto the paper trades (white paper clips) and the trades under way already (red). Then, as I update the daily\naction, it's a simple matter to check the plan to see if things are unfolding as foreseen—or not!
Why make up the trading plan in advance? Why even make up a trading plan? Answering the second\nquestion should answer both questions.
I've seen trading plans seven lines long and I've seen them six pages long, but the people who use them\nknow them to be essential for two things: Discipline and Framework. Discipline is needed to make\nthem, refer to them, and follow them. Just as important, your plan puts a framework on a topsy-turvy\nworld, a world where you sometimes wonder if up is still UP or not. The framework is your version of\nwhat's happening and what indicators you are following to prove it.
A lot of folks aren't inclined to plan anyway. They'll say, \""I've got a hunch,\"" or \""The news is bullish,\"" or\n\""I've got to get in on this move!\"". Then, they'll think \""You can't predict the future anyway, so why waste\ntime and pretend by making plans?\"". Nevertheless, it's essential to make an estimate of what is to happen.\nThat estimate is your strong foothold in the constant sea of price changes and opinions. If as time passes,\nyour estimates are (let's hope) right, then you gain more and more confidence that you are in tune with the\nmarkets and with the majority of decisions being made at the margin. You can then trade as if you knew\nwhat is to happen because, should something happen that you did not foresee, you know by the variance\nfrom your expectations that you are out of touch."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-66-68-novice-speculator-trading-plan-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-66-68-novice-speculator-trading-plan-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-66-68-novice-speculator-trading-plan-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c02-stocb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:2 (72-73): Stock Beta Coefficient by Scott S. Silver & Gary M. Wingens"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock Beta Coefficient\nby Scott S. Silver & Gary M. Wingens
Over the course of the past two decades the investment community has become increasingly concerned\nwith the notion of risk and its relationship to a portfolio of assets. Economists and statisticians alike have\nresponded to this concern with a slew of theories and formulae which have attempted to characterize\nmarket forces. One of the most widely accepted of these theories is the concept of beta and its\nrelationship to the valuation of portfolio risk.
Essentially, beta is a comparison between the movements of an individual stock or portfolio of stocks and\nthe movements of the market as a whole. More technically, it is a measure of the market, or\nnondiversifiable, risk associated with any given security in the market.
Financial theory suggests that each security's total risk is composed of two elements — the diversifiable\nand the nondiversifiable. Diversifiable risk is simply that portion of a security's total risk which is unique\nto the specific firm. This type of risk can be easily eliminated by adding additional securities to a\nportfolio — it can be literally diversified away. The risk which is left after diversification is aptly named\nnondiversifiable and can be thought of as market risk. For example, while events such as mineral\ndiscoveries, labor disputes or executive corruption are firm specific and will only effect the performance\nof a few securities, wars or global depressions tend to be economy-wide and will impact on every sector.\nBeta simply measures the expected impact of economy-wide events on specific securities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-72-73-stock-beta-coefficient-by-scott-s-silver-gary-m-wingens-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-72-73-stock-beta-coefficient-by-scott-s-silver-gary-m-wingens-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-72-73-stock-beta-coefficient-by-scott-s-silver-gary-m-wingens-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c02-fibb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:2 (77-78): Fibonacci Based Forecasts by Tucker J. Emmett"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fibonacci Based Forecasts\nby Tucker J. Emmett
In previous Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine articles about Fibonacci Forecasting I\nhave dealt at length with the proper application of the Fibonacci mathematical series to the futures\nmarkets. This simple series (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 35, 55, 89, 144,...etc.) can quite accurately and\nadequately be used to forecast trends in the futures markets with amazing consistency.
With this article, I shall deal specifically with only one futures market—the Treasury Bonds—in order to\ndelve precisely in detail into a given market than previous articles have permitted, and in order to\nelaborate thoroughly upon ideas only briefly hit upon in prior articles.
Let me say that first and foremost I am a broker. I handle individual and managed accounts in the futures\nmarkets, and have been doing so for twelve years as a partner of Anspacher an Associates . It is therefore\nextremely necessary that any technical analysis that I use bring fruit in practical results, and that I have a\nprecise way to estimate the risk and proper entry points for any given position that I put on in the futures\nmarkets. The proper use of the Fibonacci approach to the markets that I have developed over the past ten\nyears affords me this.
Although many traders do not realize it, R. N. Elliott was probably the first to use the Fibonacci series\nand its inter-relationships to trade with, his application being predominantly to the stock market. My own\napplication of this series has been exclusively to the futures markets, because of the higher yield\nobtainable when one is correct in these markets due to their increased volatility. In doing so, I have\ncontinually attempted to aim towards simplification, so that I can update and do rapid work on each of\nthe 25 or so futures markets that my customers like to trade, without sacrificing accuracy."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-77-78-fibonacci-based-forecasts-by-tucker-j-emmett-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-77-78-fibonacci-based-forecasts-by-tucker-j-emmett-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-77-78-fibonacci-based-forecasts-by-tucker-j-emmett-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c02-malf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:2 (81-82): Malfunctioning Computers: Who Pays? by Clifford Sherry, Ph. D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Malfunctioning Computers: Who Pays?\nby Clifford Sherry, Ph. D.
You have just decided to purchase a new computer, peripheral (disc drive, printer, etc.) or software\npackage (program). How should you proceed? First, you should stop and do some careful thinking and\npossibly some research. You need to decide exactly what you want your hardware (computer, peripheral)\nor software to do. For example, with many small computers, time may be a factor. Two computers can\nperform the same function, but one takes seconds, while the other takes minutes. If you require the task to\nbe performed in seconds, then the second computer, even though it can perform the task, may not be for\nyou. It is a good idea to make a list of your wants and needs and then go to one or more computer stores\nor manufacturers and do some comparative shopping. Second, when you decide to make your purchase,\nbe sure to tell the salesman exactly what you want and need and what you can afford to spend and allow\nhim to suggest an appropriate system.
Uniform Commercial Code
Once you have made your purchase, hopefully everything will go well and you will be completely\nsatisfied with your purchase. But, suppose this does not occur. What if your computer or software does\nnot perform as expected or at all? You will probably call the computer store or manufacturer. But what if\nyou follow their instructions to the letter and it still does not work? What do you do? First, you must\ndistinguish between hardware, which is covered by the Uniform Commercial Code and software, which\nis not. Second, you must determine what your rights are and how to proceed.
Computers and peripherals, as well as most other manufactured goods are covered by the Uniform\nCommercial Code, which is a series of commercial law statutes. Outright sales, including those involving\ntime payments, are usually covered. A sales is defined as \""the passing of title from the seller to the buyer\nfor a price\"". Leases and leases with the option to buy are less clear and probably need to be decided in the\ncourts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-81-82-malfunctioning-computers-who-pays-by-clifford-sherry-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-81-82-malfunctioning-computers-who-pays-by-clifford-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-81-82-malfunctioning-computers-who-pays-by-clifford-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c02-soft-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:2 (87-89): Software Review by Herbert R. Sorock"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Software Review\nby Herbert R. Sorock
CHART TRADER PLUS ™
Investor's Toolkit, Ltd.
7441 W Archer Avenue
Summit, IL 60501
(312) 496-0305
Price:
IBM version . . . . . . $299.95
Apple version . . . . . $249.95
Demo(either) . . . . . .$ 19.95
Summary:
Ease of Use: . . . . . . A
Performance: . . . . A-
Documentation: . . . .B
Error Handling: . . . . B
Vendor Support: . . . .(not tested)
Hardware Requirements:\nIBM PC, XT, AT, PCjr or IBM compatible (see below for details)\nApple version - contact vendor
Anyone still charting stocks or commodities without the assistance of a computer must be considered a\nmember of an endangered species. With the rapidly falling prices of computers and software, it doesn't\ntake a very high imputed wage to convince most serious traders that a computer purchase will pay itself\noff in a matter of a few months (if not weeks). Once you've become accustomed to using a computer for\nyour charts, going back to doing things by hand seems impossible.
Assuming that you've purchased a computer for which technical analysis and charting software is\navailable (primarily the IBM PC or Apple II series), there is the question of which software package(s) to\nuse. I have bought and used a number of these, and I have learned several lessons which have been costly\nboth in money and time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-87-89-software-review-by-herbert-r-sorock-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-87-89-software-review-by-herbert-r-sorock-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-2-87-89-software-review-by-herbert-r-sorock-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c03-howg-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:3 (100-105): How Good is The Dow Theory? Part II by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How Good is The Dow Theory?\nPart II\nby Bill Dunbar
I had just sat down at my desk in Advanced Design when Cliff walked In.
\""Ya hear the news?\"" he asked.
\""What news?\""
\""The rails confirmed yesterday!\"" He announced it like he expected me to stand up and cheer.
\""Oh, yeah?\"" I was faking it—I didn't know what he was talking about, though I had a vague idea it was\nsomething about the averages. Cliff was great on theory but I don't think he ever put a dime into the\nmarket. I made up for him though by sticking my life savings into stocks without knowing a damn thing\nabout it. That was in 1954 when you didn't have to know much about the market to make money.
Well, it may seem strange, but I never really started researching various technical approaches until I\nbegan writing articles. Oh, I guess I read a book or two along the way, but do you think I would take the\ntime to check out a theory for my own account? Uh-uh, I just couldn't be bothered."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-100-105-how-good-is-the-dow-theory-part-ii-by-bill-dunbar-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-100-105-how-good-is-the-dow-theory-part-ii-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-100-105-how-good-is-the-dow-theory-part-ii-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c03-conc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:3 (106-109): Part 1. Concepts and Examples A Trend Following Method for All Seasons by Anthony W. Warren"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Part 1. Concepts and Examples\nA Trend Following Method for All Seasons\nby Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
Introduction
Trend following methods based on plots of raw and moving average data are one of the oldest and most\nuniversally used techniques of technical analysis. However, these techniques are appropriate for only\ncertain types of markets, characterized by great cyclical movements or trends, and are not useful in long\naccumulation and distribution periods when the underlying market is flat. Moreover, even in trending\nmarkets the traditional moving average trading techniques tend to be susceptible to false alarms caused\nby short term market reversals. In this article we discuss a trend following method which remedies most\nof these difficulties by
(1) Establishing upper and lower trend channel lines which characterize the statistical fluctuations in\nthe data, and
(2) Utilizing a moving average or recursive filter to define trading points and trading regions\nOUTSIDE the uncertainty band between the trend channel lines.
This concept is not really new. However, it has only recently become implementable in a reasonably\neconomic and automated fashion, with the growth in power and usefulness of the personal computer. We\nwill discuss the implementation aspects of this method in a follow-up article. In this article wt show the\nsuperiority of this method over the usual trend following technique based on moving averages.
At its basis, our trend following concept identifies three trading regions when one should be LONG,\nwhen one should be SHORT, and when one should be OUT, i.e. noncommitted. These regions are\ndefined by the following rules:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-106-109-part-1-concepts-and-examples-a-trend-following-method-for-all-seasons-by-anthony-w-warren-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-106-109-part-1-concepts-and-examples-a-trend-following-method-for-all-seasons-by-anthony-w-warren-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-106-109-part-1-concepts-and-examples-a-trend-following-method-for-all-seasons-by-anthony-w-warren-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c03-disb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:3 (114-116): Discount Stock Brokers by Richard Maturi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Discount Stock Brokers\nby Richard Maturi
If you're a sophisticated investor, willing to make many of your own investment decisions then May\n1,1975 marked a milestone for your investment activities. On \""May Day\"" the Securities and Exchange\nCommission ended fixed commissions, making brokerage commissions fully negotiable.
Many discount stock brokers came into existence after May 1, 1975 offering investors exceptional\nmoney-saving rates. Discount brokers can offer commission savings on orders for three reasons:
1.Their staff is paid on a salary basis, therefore no large commissions are incurred.
2.They do not provide investment advice, therefore they incur no heavy marketing and research costs.
3.They use specialized clearing agents whose large operations provide economies of scale.
A trader must keep his commissions to a minimum if he is to maximize his profits. Discount brokers\nprovide an easy and efficient method of accomplishing this goal.
I'm sure many of you reading this article are thinking, \""So what else is new, I've been dealing with a\ndiscount broker for several years now.\"" That is just the point. There has been such turmoil in the discount\nbrokerage business and there is such a wide range of options and prices provided by discount brokers that\nanother look is warranted. You may be satisfied with your present broker but still be missing\nopportunities for more services at the same price or lower commissions by making a switch in brokers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-114-116-discount-stock-brokers-by-richard-maturi-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-114-116-discount-stock-brokers-by-richard-maturi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-114-116-discount-stock-brokers-by-richard-maturi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c03-soft-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:3 (117-120): Software Review by John F. Kepka"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Software Review\nby John F. Kepka
Supplier:
Intra-Day Analyst
P.O. Box 15952
New Orleans, LA 70175
1-800-535-7990
1-504-895-1474
Price:
Program $1500
Yearly Maintenance $250
Security Device $75
Summary:
Ease of Use: A
Documentation: B
Reliability: A
Error Handling: A
Vendor Support: B
Intra-Day Analyst Version 3.0B has come a long way since I first heard of its introduction at the first\nCompuTrac Seminar (1981) in New Orleans. Essentially, Intra-Day Analyst is a software program which,\nwith the aid of a host quote machine properly interfaced to a computer, provides real-time price updates\nand graphically displays them (high, low, close) in time intervals from as short as I minute to as long as I\ncomplete day (480 minutes). Each graphics screen may be comprised solely of price action or a split\nscreen with prices in the upper half and a selected study underneath.
While I use the Apple version with Commodity Communications quote machine daily, an IBM PC\nversion is also available at the same price (The security device is $100). At the end of this article, the\nimportant differences between the Apple IDA and IBM IDA are discussed for those readers who can\nchoose between systems.
The program is menu driven and remembers all of the selections once they are chosen the first time. For\nall practical purposes, all the user need do is turn it on in the morning, and the program will monitor,\nupdate, and calculate studies all day long. My greatest fear for the first month was that I would cause the\nprogram to \""bomb\"" while on-line and lose valuable data by picking an incorrect menu selection or hitting\nthe wrong key. After a year and a half, this has never been a problem. Error handling within the program\nis excellent. The only potential running problems are bad data (this can be edited or deleted by the user),\na power failure, or a temporary data transmission loss. I save every hour on the hour, but other\nfrequencies may be chosen."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-117-120-software-review-by-john-f-kepka-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-117-120-software-review-by-john-f-kepka-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-117-120-software-review-by-john-f-kepka-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c03-trad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:3 (121-121): Trading Liquidity: A Parameter for Technical Analysis by Scott J. Levokove and Scott S."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Liquidity:\nA Parameter for Technical Analysis\nby Scott J. Levokove and Scott S. Silver
Trading liquidity is often overlooked as a key technical measurement in the analysis and selection of\nstocks. The value of technical analysis is often enhanced by taking trading liquidity into account.
Liquidity is a significant consideration because of the effect it has on the price of a security. Other things\nbeing equal, a relatively illiquid security should carry a lower price because the holder should be\nrewarded for bearing the extra risk. The risk involves the lack of ability to trade large blocks of stock\nwithout significantly affecting the price.
This article addresses the issue of trading liquidity, and how it relates to the data and calculations on\ntrading activity provided by Gregg Corporation as a regular feature in Technical Analysis of Stocks &\nCommodities.
Trading activity equals the total volume for a given period expressed as a percentage of the total number\nof shares outstanding. This value can be thought of as the turnover rate of a firm's shares outstanding and,\ntheoretically, can serve as a good proxy for trading liquidity.
Every two months, Gregg Corporation searches its Tradeline™ Securities Database System for the fifty\nstocks that have exhibited the greatest trading activity over the most recent two-month period. The\nTradeline System contains historical pricing and dividend information plus selected fundamental data for\nover 70,000 securities including equities, bonds, options, government issues and market indexes. For the\ntrading activity analysis, the screening process is narrowed to common stock issues listed on the major\nU.S. exchanges."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-121-121-trading-liquidity-a-parameter-for-technical-analysis-by-scott-j-levokove-and-scott-s-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-121-121-trading-liquidity-a-parameter-for-technical-analysis-by-scott-j-levokove-and-scott-s-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-121-121-trading-liquidity-a-parameter-for-technical-analysis-by-scott-j-levokove-and-scott-s-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c03-pred-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:3 (122-124): Prediction by Index by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Prediction by Index\nby Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a summary measure designed to indicate\nchanges in the direction of aggregrate economic activity. The Index measures the average behavior of a\ngroup of 12 economic time series that show similar timing at business cycle turns. They represent\ndifferent activities or sectors of the economy. The Index was first developed in the 1930's by the National\nBureau of Economic Research and has been published since 1961 by the Department of Commerce in\nBusiness Conditions Digest. The Index tends to lead at business cycle turns and this look ahead quality\nmakes it a valuable tool for predicting changes in the economy, such as impending recession.
The procedures used to combine the individual economic series into the Index are designed to prevent the\nvolatile series from dominating the Index and to give more influence to the better performing series. The\neconomic series that are incorporated into the Index tap the following economic processes: employment\nand unemployment; production income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories\nand inventory investment; prices, costs, and profits; and money, credit, and interest rates. Selecting and\nclassifying these individual economic series that become part of the Index is a place where economic\ntheory and empirical observation closely interact.
The value of the Index by month from 1980 is shown in Chart 1. These values are often used to\ndetermine the end of economic recovery and the beginning of a recession before it occurs. There are a\nnumber of different methods for looking at these figures in order to determine if a recession is eminent.\nFour filters are commonly used. Filter one looks for a decline of any size from the previous month\n(technically not a filter at all); filter 2, a decline of any size, for two months in a row; and filter 3 for a\ndecline of any size for any three months in a row. The fourth filter seeks two consecutive months of\nnegative and decelerating growth. For example, if the changes in the Index is -1, -1, -2, this would not\nconstitute a signal of a recession, since the middle month, although negative, is not decelerating from the\nprevious month. If the value were -1, -1.5, and -2 or -0.5, -1, and -2, etc., in other words, the growth in\neach of the last two months was negative and algebraically lower than the previous month, then it\nsatisfies the criteria of the fourth filter. The performance of these four filters as reported by Dr. Howard\nKeen for each of the postwar expansions are shown in Table 2."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-122-124-prediction-by-index-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-122-124-prediction-by-index-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-122-124-prediction-by-index-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c03-stoc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:3 (95-99): Stock and Future Option Trading"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock and Future Option Trading
Trading in stock and futures options is one of the least understood yet potentially most rewarding forms\nof investing for the individual, professional trader and institutional investor. While trading in stock\noptions can be traced back more than a century in the over-the-counter market, it is only within the last\ndecade that it has become a significant activity in listed stocks. According to Forbes magazine, by 1980\nthe total volume of options traded measured in terms of their underlying stock exceeded the volume of\nactual shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
The modern stock options industry began in 1973 when the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)\nformally started trading options on 16 common stocks. Initially, stock options attracted little interest.\nVirtually the only participants were institutional investors who used options as a hedge to protect their\npositions in a particular stock. The CBOE resorted to buying ad space in the Wall Street Journal to\ninform the investing public of its trading activity. The opportunity for profit in options trading soon\nbecame apparent to professional speculative traders who today maintain the liquidity of the market. Many\nfortunes have been made in stock options and today the CBOE lists options on 156 common stocks.
Four other option markets have since opened: the American-Stock Exchange, the Philadelphia Exchange,\nthe Pacific Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. Investors can choose from among\napproximately 425 stock options to trade. The success of the stock options market gave birth to such\nactive investment vehicles as the Standard & Poor's 100 index options market at the CBOE in which\nmore than 200,000 futures contracts are traded daily. The price for a seat on the CBOE - $10,000 in\n1973 - is now $200,000, an increase of 2,000 percent. The options market has become an attractive\nalternative for investors seeking a short-term profit without making a large capital investment."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-95-99-stock-and-future-option-trading-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-95-99-stock-and-future-option-trading-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-3-95-99-stock-and-future-option-trading-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c04-head-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:4 (131-134): Head and Shoulders: An Introduction to Reversal Patterns by Timothy A. Maguire"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Head and Shoulders: An Introduction to\nReversal Patterns\nby Timothy A. Maguire
\""A picture is worth a thousand words\""- Chinese proverb.
The first thing a novice to the stock market would likely notice about individual security prices is that\nthey are not static. Continual change is the only true constant in the market. Being aware of this, technical\nanalysts attempt to predict what changes will occur in individual stock prices. One of their specific goals\nis to determine when trend reversals are underway. Generally, when a stock is undergoing one of these\nreversals, either from an uptrend to a downtrend or vice versa, a characteristic pattern takes shape in the\nstock's price chart. It is important for newcomers to the field of technical analysis to familiarize\nthemselves with these basic reversal formations and their significance in order to see trading\nopportunities. As an introduction to the topic, this article describes two of the most common reversal\npatterns: Head and Shoulders and Multiple Head and Shoulders.
Head and Shoulders Top
Head and Shoulders patterns are the most common and, many think, one of the most reliable reversal\npatterns. When this pattern occurs at the height of an uptrend, it is naturally referred to as a Head and\nShoulders Top (HST). It is a formation which signals that the security's price has reached a top and will\ndecline in the future. As the name indicates, the HST has a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder. The\nmarket action which forms an HST can be broken down into four phases:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-131-134-head-and-shoulders-an-introduction-to-reversal-patterns-by-timothy-a-maguire-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-131-134-head-and-shoulders-an-introduction-to-reversal-patterns-by-timothy-a-maguire-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-131-134-head-and-shoulders-an-introduction-to-reversal-patterns-by-timothy-a-maguire-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c04-comm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:4 (135-136): Commodity Trading Risks by Allen D. Hanson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Commodity Trading Risks\nby Allen D. Hanson
Few traders fully realize the risks that they are taking when they make a commitment in the futures\nmarket. They have learned all about charts, cycles, fundamentals, and basic trading theory, but when it\ncomes to understanding the real risk, they simply don't comprehend the hazards involved. This is\nparticularly true regarding the short side of the futures market. While this is often called the most\nprofitable way to be in the market, the upside risk is still unlimited in theory at least, and the downside\npotential is limited to the full price of the commodity. Most amateur traders understand this but they don't\nfully realize the other major risk factors. They fall into five distinct categories.
Political Risks
This includes all new rules and regulations that cause immediate change in market value. If a foreign\ngovernment fails or a new political party takes office, the security of the previous government is gone and\ncommodity prices can respond very suddenly. In the United States that includes presidential succession or\nthreat of war, interest rate changes and other government initiated fiscal policy. Even tight futures market\nspreads can go wild if a new rule becomes effective in between two different contract months.
Weather Risk
This includes storms, hurricanes, sudden freezes, prolonged hot or cold spells and other unpredictable\ninfluences on the market place. Some weather risks can be partially anticipated during certain seasons,\nbut a sudden weather disaster can still move prices substantially and violate any chart pattern or seasonal\ntrend."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-135-136-commodity-trading-risks-by-allen-d-hanson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-135-136-commodity-trading-risks-by-allen-d-hanson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-135-136-commodity-trading-risks-by-allen-d-hanson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c04-over-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:4 (137-139): Overlooked Trading Opportunities by David L. Caplan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Overlooked Trading Opportunities\nby David L. Caplan
Option strategies are, unquestionably, one of the most under-used and overlooked opportunities available\nto the trader. Properly used, option strategies can provide the trader with significant new trading\nopportunities and advantages. However, option strategies are currently used only by a small minority of\ntraders. There are several reasons for this.
First, option trading is relatively new—options on stocks have been exchange traded for twelve years and\noptions on commodity futures and cash indicies for less than three. Secondly, most traders are unfamiliar\nwith the mechanics of option trading and their associated strategies. Third, most brokers do not\nrecommend option strategies because (1) they are also not familiar with them and (2) it takes extra time\nto research the opportunities available. Finally, the most prevalent reason for the non-use of option\nstrategies is the \""time and effort\"" necessary to learn the numerous option strategies and how and when to\nimplement them.
To be a successful futures trader one must, of course, learn as much as possible about the markets one is\ngoing to trade and generate a successful trading plan. To make profitable use of option trading strategies,\none must not only learn about the underlying market as does the net futures trader, but one must also\nlearn all the mechanics of option trading, the relation of options to the underlying commodities, and the\navailable option strategies and when to use them.
This may seem like an overwhelming task, but, since the option strategist uses many of the same methods\nas traders of stocks and commodities (technical and fundamental analysis, the risk/reward ratio, money\nmanagement, diversification, etc.), experienced futures traders can readily learn this type of trading.\nFurther, the advantages of using option strategies are sometimes so great, that it is well worth the\nnecessary time and energy needed to master them. Some of the advantages include:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-137-139-overlooked-trading-opportunities-by-david-l-caplan-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-137-139-overlooked-trading-opportunities-by-david-l-caplan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-137-139-overlooked-trading-opportunities-by-david-l-caplan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c04-ulti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:4 (140-141): The Ultimate Oscillator by Larry Williams"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Ultimate Oscillator\nby Larry Williams
There is nothing more intriguing to the beginning commodity or stock trader than the discovery of\noscillators. At first, oscillators appear to be the perfect trading tool because so often they give excellent\nbuy and sell signals. But, the more you use oscillators, the more you realize that oscillators give an equal\nnumber of false signals.
Since the turn of the century, traders have tried to tame their oscillators in order to develop a new\napproach that does not give false signals or false divergences yet provides an insight into the market that\nno other tool can.
An oscillator actually measures the momentum of data, whether it is price, volume, or open interest. An\noscillator will help show the speed at which the information is changing. Thus, it can also define\nover-bought or over-sold areas.
The pioneer in oscillator work was Owen Taylor who in the 1920's presented oscillator work based on\n7-day data. Taylor looked at price today versus a 7-day moving average of price or a 7-day moving\naverage of advancing and declining stocks over the last seven days.
In the 1940's Woods and Vignolia started their interesting approach to the market measuring volume in\nwhat is now known as On Balance Volume. These two gentlemen, based in San Francisco, started\nrunning a cumulative positive-negative volume flow that was later popularized by Joe Granville. Woods\nand Vignolia also did a tremendous amount of oscillator work using 20 to 40-day measurements of days\nthat had up volume versus days that had down volume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-140-141-the-ultimate-oscillator-by-larry-williams-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-140-141-the-ultimate-oscillator-by-larry-williams-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-140-141-the-ultimate-oscillator-by-larry-williams-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c04-trad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:4 (142-144): Trading With ARIMA Forecasts by John F. Kepka"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading With ARIMA Forecasts\nby John F. Kepka
This article will attempt to present some insight into using ARIMA or Box-Jenkins forecasting\ntechniques on the Standard & Poor (S&P) 500 index futures contract. First, I will recap ARIMA in\nlayman's terms.
ARIMA is translated as AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average. AutoRegressive means that the\nobservations today depend on the previous observations. Moving Average means that the model includes\nerrors made in the previous forecasts. Integrated takes into account the trend of the observations. ARIMA\nmodels (equations) are abbreviated as ARIMA (p,d,q) where p is the number of autoregressive terms, d\nis the number of differences, and q is the number of moving average terms.
Forecasting futures prices with an ARIMA model make sense because the market is composed of buyers\nand sellers whose equity is directly affected by each price fluctuation. Each price change represents a real\ngain to one group and a real loss to the other. Rising prices instill confidence in the bull's camp and\nprovide them with extra ammunition to shoot bears. This means that successive observations in price are\nnot completely independent, (i.e., random). Margin calls certainly are not random. The ARIMA model\nthen is composed of a predicted value which is dependent on previous prices, a trend component, and an\nerror term. Prices exhibit trends; there are errors in forecasting; and noise or randomness lives in the\nmarket . Hence, the ARIMA (p,d,q) model makes sense in trying to forecast the real world. In fact, an\nARIMA (0,1,1) model is equivalent to exponential smoothing with which every trader is more or less\nfamiliar."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-142-144-trading-with-arima-forecasts-by-john-f-kepka-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-142-144-trading-with-arima-forecasts-by-john-f-kepka-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-4-142-144-trading-with-arima-forecasts-by-john-f-kepka-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c05-wher-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:5 (157-158): Where to Put Your Stops by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Where to Put Your Stops\nby John Sweeney
Stops protecting an initial entry position are like forward passes in football: Three things can happen to\nyou and only one of them is good!
1)You can be taken out of a strong adverse move early (That's good).
2)You can be taken out of a losing trade at the worst possible price (That's bad).
3)You can be taken out of a winning trade by an interim fluctuation (That's catastrophic!).
It's worth keeping in mind how these events come about, although the first is easy. Protection is what\nstops are supposed to provide. You have presumably set a stop where if reached, adverse price movement\noutside normal fluctuations is indicated. Your stop is hit and the price keeps on moving past it. You feel\npain but you're not mortally wounded.
More often, though, as the price bounces against you, your stop is the first to feel the pain. You may\nnotice that an exit on the close would routinely get you out at a better price—the only exception being\nwhen the close and the day's extreme are one and the same. In this second situation, you get nicked for\nmore than you needed to lose in order to exit your position.
Thirdly, the stop is set too close in zeal to hold down losses. Routine price fluctuation touches it and for\nonce your broker performs as advertised. By the end of the day or week the move you were trading is still\non but you're off the bandwagon. This is doubly injurious to pride and profit: you've converted a winning\ntrade into a losing trade. Your opportunity cost (foregone winnings) is astronomical and you're also\nhurting from a cash loss. Your equity is shrunken by the winnings you didn't get and the loss you did\ntake. Avoid this situation like the plague if you want to stay in the game."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-157-158-where-to-put-your-stops-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-157-158-where-to-put-your-stops-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-157-158-where-to-put-your-stops-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c05-face-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:5 (159-161): Facelift for an Old Favorite by Gregory L. Morris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Facelift for an Old Favorite\nby Gregory L. Morris
\""There are many ways in which the Relative Strength Index can\nbe adjusted and redefined.\""
Technical analysts who have not heard of J. Welles Wilder, Jr., and more specifically, his Relative\nStrength Index, probably have not delved into the art of technical analysis with much enthusiasm. The\nRelative Strength Index (RSI) was first presented in his now-classic book, New Concepts in Technical\nTrading Systems, published in 1978.
Those who are familiar with RSI know that it is a very useful momentum indicator because its range is\nalways between 0 and 100. This alleviates the problem of how high is high and how low is low. Another\ninterpretation is its use as a divergence indication; that is, when the indicator and the price do not follow\nthe same pattern. Normally, at tops, the price will continue to make higher highs while the indicator\nmakes lower highs. When used in this manner, the opposite occurs at bottoms. More on this later.
Just how good is this indicator, especially when everyone is using it!? Let's face it, the indicator was\ncreated in 1978 when there weren't too many personal computers around. I was using red, green, and blue\npencils along with a desk calculator.
Let's look at the formula for RSI. Basically, it is the average of the last 14 up days divided by the average\nof the last 14 down days. I am using 14 days in this example because that appears to be the most popular.\nThe data used is the difference between today's close and yesterday's close. If today was up two points,\nthen it is the two points difference that are figured into the formula, not the price itself. The Relative\nStrength formula is as follows:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-159-161-facelift-for-an-old-favorite-by-gregory-l-morris-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-159-161-facelift-for-an-old-favorite-by-gregory-l-morris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-159-161-facelift-for-an-old-favorite-by-gregory-l-morris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c05-data-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:5 (162-165): Data Smoothing using a Kalman Filter by Vince Banes"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Data Smoothing using a Kalman Filter\nby Vince Banes
\""The analysis of continuous pricing information works well with\nthis form of filtering\""
The concept of optimum estimation was introduced by Dr. R.E. Kalman in 1960. The first major\napplication of his theories was to reduce the noise found in the data of modern navigation systems. With\nthese theories, system designers were able to use knowledge about the noise in a system to filter out its\neffects and to improve system performance without additional hardware. This led engineers to apply his\nprinciples to many different problems. These same principles can be applied to technical analysis of stock\nand commodity prices.
Because the first use of Dr. Kalman's filters was limited to certain environments, few people took the\ntime to understand the mathematics. A technical \""cult\"" has been built around these equations, for many a\nPh.D. has been earned from studying them. At first glance, the original papers presented by Dr. Kalman\nare an impenetrable fortress to be understood only by the highest of the most high in the world of\nmathematics. This paper will present, for the common man, the simple second order case of Kalman\nfiltering and how to apply it to data smoothing.
The equations are quite simple but very effective in filtering out the high-frequency noise found in most\nmeasurement systems. The analysis of continuous pricing information works well with this form of\nfiltering."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-162-165-data-smoothing-using-a-kalman-filter-by-vince-banes-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-162-165-data-smoothing-using-a-kalman-filter-by-vince-banes-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-162-165-data-smoothing-using-a-kalman-filter-by-vince-banes-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c05-gamb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:5 (168-170): Gambler's Paradox by Clifford J. Sherry"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Gambler's Paradox\nby Clifford J. Sherry
If you know the price of a commodity today, can you predict the price tomorrow? A week from\ntomorrow? A month from tomorrow? Can you predict whether the price will increase or decrease and by\nhow much? The answer to that question depends on who you ask. Some people, like technical analysts,\nwho use such things as charts and moving averages, believe that you can. Others do not.
One reason this question is so difficult to answer is there is no general agreement about how commodity\nprices are 'generated.' If the underlying 'process' is random and/or independent, you probably cannot\n'predict' price movement. But, if this is not true, if it is either non-random and/or dependent, some\n'pattern' exists in commodity prices, and with the appropriate 'tools' you should be able to detect the\n'pattern.' It is important to understand that randomness and independence are separate and distinct\ncharacteristics.
From a technical standpoint, randomness and independence are relatively difficult to define, but an\nanalogy will help. For example, fill a small urn with 50 white and 50 black balls. Take out one ball at a\ntime, write down its color and replace it, take out another, etc. If you do this repeatedly, you will\n'generate' a random and independent sequence. It is random because each and every ball has an equal\nchance of being selected. It is independent because the choice of the first ball had no effect on the\nselection of the second and succeeding balls."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-168-170-gambler-s-paradox-by-clifford-j-sherry-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-168-170-gambler-s-paradox-by-clifford-j-sherry-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-168-170-gambler-s-paradox-by-clifford-j-sherry-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c05-rid-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:5 (172-175): Riding for Profits with \""Irv the Liquidator\"" by Richard J. Maturi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Riding for Profits with \""Irv the Liquidator\""\nby Richard J. Maturi
Wall Street Journal articles over the past few months have reported the financial dealings of Irwin\nJacobs, better known as \""Irv the Liquidator.\"" Jacobs invests in companies he considers financially sound\nbut in need of turning around. He has completed several such acquisitions (Bekins, Aegis) and has sold\nother interests back to the pursued company for a handsome profit. Recent headlines include:
Disney Buys Out Jacobs' Stake for $158.1 Million
Group Led By Jacobs Plans Bid For Rest Of Lyon Metal Jacobs Increases Stake in Minstar Inc.
Jacobs Controls 9.5% of G.C. Murphy
Avco Position of 6.5% of Common Held by Jacobs Group
Minstar to Complete Acquisition of Aegis
Although interesting reading, their value escaped me until I conducted an analysis of the stock prices of\nJacobs' prey. As it turns out, the relatively narrow trading range of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and\nlow volume trading days offer me little opportunity for profits or excitement but Jacobs' investments\noffer both.
My analysis began with researching old Wall Street Journal and Barron's articles for leads on companies\npursued by Jacobs. This was followed by charting the stock price action (high, low, close, change, and\nvolume) weekly for a period beginning at least a month before the articles were released.
Analysis of the stock charts points out the following investment opportunities:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-172-175-riding-for-profits-with-irv-the-liquidator-by-richard-j-maturi-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-172-175-riding-for-profits-with-irv-the-liquidator-by-richard-j-maturi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-172-175-riding-for-profits-with-irv-the-liquidator-by-richard-j-maturi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c05-gann-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:5 (177-183): Gann Lines and Angles by Robert Pardo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Gann Lines and Angles\nby Robert Pardo
\""Integrated use of Gann Lines and Angles... appreciably\nenhances the accuracy of the identification and verification of\npotential turning points.\""
INTRODUCTION
Gann Lines and Gann Angles are technical charting methods for the projection of Forward Support and\nResistance. This article will discuss these techniques, their applications, the concept of Forward Support\nand Resistance, and the Principle of Coincidence.
The projection of potential future turning points is one of the more interesting and rewarding applications\nof Forward Support and Resistance. This article will outline an integrated use of Gann Lines and Angles.\nThis integration appreciably enhances the accuracy of the identification and verification of potential\nturning points. It is a good example of the \""sum exceeding the parts.\"" It is also an excellent illustration of\nthe Principle of Coincidence.
THE MARGIN OF ERROR
Experience indicates that many traders are unaware of the LIMITATIONS of technical indicators and\ntheir applications. Most traders know the proper application of a particular method. However, most do\nnot know how to determine at what point a method is being used beyond its inherent capabilities. The\nresult of this is inaccurate and misleading trading information. Application of the Principle of\nCoincidence is one method that helps to reduce this effect."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-177-183-gann-lines-and-angles-by-robert-pardo-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-177-183-gann-lines-and-angles-by-robert-pardo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-177-183-gann-lines-and-angles-by-robert-pardo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c05-rev-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:5 (186-187): Revery: Computerized Stock Market Trading by Henry S. Patricoff"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Revery: Computerized Stock Market Trading\nby Henry S. Patricoff
A recent article in Barron's expressed the view that the options Index market has become so large that\npossibly it is the tail that is wagging the dog.
Aside from a spectacular one or two day rise now and then, the stock market has been in a narrow trading\nrange for many past months. Traders who look for a fluctuating market find themselves frustrated by an\ninability to eke out a profit either on the up or down side.
Could there be another reason for this grid-lock? Is it possible that portfolio managers and market trading\noperators, after punching out their risk-reward ratios, the Betas, and the Thetas, etc., reach similar\nconclusions as to selection and timing? When the time comes to sell, the question is, \""To whom?\"", since\nother computers will also read: Unload.
Will a confused public accelerate the present trend and place their investments into the hands of large\nfunds and managed accounts? If so, instead of customer versus customer or customer's broker versus\ncustomer's broker, it will be Mutual Fund versus Investment Trust, Pension Fund versus College Fund.
Instead of rampant Bull and Bear markets, we must sadly contemplate this last bastion of financial\njousting reduced to the stability of the Municipal Bond market with calculations carried out to four\ndecimal places."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-186-187-revery-computerized-stock-market-trading-by-henry-s-patricoff-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-186-187-revery-computerized-stock-market-trading-by-henry-s-patricoff-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-5-186-187-revery-computerized-stock-market-trading-by-henry-s-patricoff-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c06-step-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:6 (194-195): Step up to the window by Alan Hanson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Step up to the window\nby Alan Hanson
As a newly-licensed floor broker handling orders for a major Chicago commodity broker, I enjoyed\nexpressing my own market theories and opinions to the older members of the exchange. My ideas were\nimportant to me, but they didn't seem to impress my more experienced peers. One old timer would\nanswer me by saying \""Step up to the window, son.\"" In plain language, \""If I was so sure of myself, why\ndidn't I put my own money up and trade the market the way I saw it?\"" It's one thing to talk about the\nmarket and another matter to \""step up to the window\"" and put your own money on the line.
Since that time, I have gradually begun to realize that the day may come when you could actually \""step up\nto the window\"" and the \""window\"" might be closed. When we deal with a futures broker and he places our\norder on the floor of a major commodity exchange, the possibility always exists that the exchange may\nnot be able to perform. During the past 80 years or more of active futures trading in the United States,\nthere has never been a major exchange that has ever closed for more than a short period of time. The\npossibility, however, does exist for a major exchange to close and this will affect the trader's potential\nprofit on any trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-194-195-step-up-to-the-window-by-alan-hanson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-194-195-step-up-to-the-window-by-alan-hanson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-194-195-step-up-to-the-window-by-alan-hanson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c06-trad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:6 (196-199): Trading with ARIMA and stochastics by John F. Kepka"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading with ARIMA and stochastics\nby John F. Kepka
In the June 1985 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine, I presented some\npossible strategies using ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Averages) to trade the September\nStandard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Futures. The Stochastics Oscillator was discussed in the May and\nSeptember 1984 issues of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. Now, I will combine ARIMA\nfrom daily data, stochastics, and use half hourly Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index futures prices. The\nhalf-hourly price data and the stochastics are obtained from Intra-day Analyst, software specifically\ndesigned for intra-day price analysis.
—ARIMA Sets the Day's Range
The ARIMA forecasted highs, lows, and 50% confidence levels were calculated from a model developed\nfor the S&P 500 September 1984 futures with EASI/ARIMA—The 2%, Solution . I refer to these\nforecast levels as potential action points. Both the regular and the slow stochastics are presented for\ncomparison in Figure 1 along with the price action. Figure 2 lists Daily ARIMA forecasted values."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-196-199-trading-with-arima-and-stochastics-by-john-f-kepka-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-196-199-trading-with-arima-and-stochastics-by-john-f-kepka-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-196-199-trading-with-arima-and-stochastics-by-john-f-kepka-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c06-disc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:6 (201-203): Discount broker blues by Dan Weinberg"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Discount broker blues\nby Dan Weinberg
\""Do-it-yourself investing is easy!\"" —a discount broker ad
\""There's a sucker born every minute.\""—P.T. Barnum
\""I really thought I knew what I was doing!\""—Anonymous
Hook
All your life you've scoffed at people who read Barron's or the Wall Street Journal . They're just\nmoney-grubbing capitalists who are already rich and enjoy checking out the ups and downs of their pet\ncorporations to see if they can get even richer. Not like the ordinary working man, someone like you, who\nhas to work hard for his take-home pay. It's just a simple case of the \""haves\"" and the \""have-nots\"" and the\n\""have-nots\"" just don't have time to keep their noses buried in the stock pages.
Then, one day, while waiting in the dentist's office or at the gate where your wife's plane was to have\narrived an hour ago, you happen upon a copy of your local newspaper's business section. Having nothing\nbetter to do, you glance at the stock quotations and notice that the stock of a company you've recently\nheard about went up three points just yesterday.
While you don't know much about the stock market, you certainly could have predicted that company's\nrise, because the other night Dan Rather announced on the evening news that this particular company\nwon a big, fat government contract for something or other. So the stock went up three points. Big deal!\nEven a know-nothing like you could have predicted that one."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-201-203-discount-broker-blues-by-dan-weinberg-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-201-203-discount-broker-blues-by-dan-weinberg-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-201-203-discount-broker-blues-by-dan-weinberg-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c06-read-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:6 (204-206): Reading between the lines by John Navarte"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Reading between the lines\nby John Navarte
Charting oscillators is one of the most powerful technical analysis tools available for the private and\nprofessional investor. In this article, we will consider two standard oscillator constructions. The first\nhelps you recognize \""price excesses\"" relative to moving averages; the second analyzes changes in \""price\nmomentum.\""
Oscillator Formulas
The oscillators you can chart are often referred to as \""difference curves.\"" These are obtained by\ncomputing the difference between two quantities (for example, the closing price and its moving average,\nor a moving average and its value 10 days prior).
To draw an oscillator, you must specify two quantities and then plot the difference between them daily. A\nline chart is used to connect the plotted points. When the oscillator is drawn below the price bar chart, the\ntwo charts can be compared.
Oscillators usually involve moving averages. Because they are accepted indicators of price trend, you\nshould use moving averages with time spans that reflect your investment philosophy. For example, you\nwould not want to base a short-term trading strategy on momentum studies of a 200-day moving average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-204-206-reading-between-the-lines-by-john-navarte-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-204-206-reading-between-the-lines-by-john-navarte-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-204-206-reading-between-the-lines-by-john-navarte-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c06-cov-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:6 (207-207): Covered calls by Richard Maturi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Covered calls\nby Richard Maturi
Sophisticated and neophyte investors alike can benefit from option trading. Though options are typically\nviewed by many investors as speculative, options can be a very effective conservative investment tool.
A stock option gives the holder the right to buy or sell the underlying security at a specific price during a\nspecific period of time. A call option provides the right to buy the specified stock, while a put option\nprovides the right to sell the specified stock. The exercise price of the option is called the \""striking price.\""
The \""covered call\"" option is a conservative vehicle that should not be ignored by any investor. A covered\ncall is a call written by the owner of the stock.
Call options are purchased with the anticipation that the underlying stock will rise in value in excess of\nthe premium paid for the call. When this happens the holder can sell the call for a higher price or he can\nexercise the option and take possession of the stock at a price less than current market value, either way\nenjoying highly leveraged gains.
There are a number of advantages to writing covered calls."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-207-207-covered-calls-by-richard-maturi-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-207-207-covered-calls-by-richard-maturi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-207-207-covered-calls-by-richard-maturi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c06-simp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:6 (213-215): A simple analogue of auto- and cross-correlation by Clifford J. Sherry"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A simple analogue of auto- and cross-correlation\nby Clifford J. Sherry
If you trade commodities or stocks and if you expect to make a profit, you are making the tacit\nassumption that you can predict the future price of your commodity or stock.
Traders often need to know if time series of commodity or stock prices are cyclic and, if they are, the\nextent of the cycle. It is also important to know if two time series are interdependent. Interdependency\ncan be between two commodity prices, if you want to play the spreads, or a series of commodity prices\nand some other time series, such as the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators. These\nproperties can be detected by using auto- and cross-correlation techniques, respectively. Unfortunately,\nthese techniques are often difficult to implement and may require a large, general-purpose computer to do\nthe computations.
During the last 10-12 years, with a number of different colleagues, I have developed a number of\nstatistical techniques to deal with these and related questions. Since auto- and cross-correlation are\nrelatively complex and difficult to implement, I developed an analogous technique that can be done with\npaper and pencil or a small computer.
The first step is to obtain a listing of the prices of the commodity or stock. If you are using prices, they\nshould be as recent as possible and should represent several hundred equally spaced data points (prices).\nThey should cover the same calendar period."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-213-215-a-simple-analogue-of-auto-and-cross-correlation-by-clifford-j-sherry-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-213-215-a-simple-analogue-of-auto-and-cross-correlation-by-clifford-j-sherry-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-213-215-a-simple-analogue-of-auto-and-cross-correlation-by-clifford-j-sherry-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c06-modw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:6 (218-221): A modification of Wilder's directional movement system by Thomas P. Drinka and Steven L. Kille"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A modification of Wilder's directional movement\nsystem\nby Thomas P. Drinka and Steven L. Kille
In his New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (Copyright 1978) J. Welles Wilder Jr. introduced his\ndirectional movement system with the following:
\""Directional movement is the most fascinating concept I have studied . . . I have probably spent more\ntime studying directional movement than any other concept. Certainly one of my most satisfying\nachievements was the day I was actually able to reduce this concept to an absolute mathematical\nequation.\""
The Directional Movement System
The Directional Movement System as elaborated by Wilder requires the calculation of the following four\nexpressions: +DI14,–DIl4, ADX, and ADXR. These expressions are defined as follows."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-218-221-a-modification-of-wilder-s-directional-movement-system-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-218-221-a-modification-of-wilder-s-directional-movement-system-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-218-221-a-modification-of-wilder-s-directional-movement-system-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c06-beng-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:6 (222-223): Benguet revisited by Richard Maturi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Benguet revisited\nby Richard Maturi
The November/December 1983 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities carried an article\nof mine entitled \""Gold Stocks\"" which addressed the following question:
\""Can the average investor successfully participate in the gold market without having to deal with the\nproblems associated with owning precious metals?\""
In the article, I detailed my successful trading strategy of buying Benguet, a NYSE gold mining stock\nduring the period March 1982 through March 1983. Benguet is a producer of gold as well as copper and\nchromite and its stock can be traded for its play on the price fluctuations of gold as well as giving the\ninvestor the opportunity to participate in the fortunes of the company and the stock market overall.
The basic strategy was to sell Benguet for a gain of a half point per trade and earn a high return through a\nlarge number of trades during the year. Although my trading strategy proved very successful during the\ninitial period with a return of 163%, changing market conditions warranted a review of my Benguet\ninvestments during the next yearly period and a look at future investment opportunities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-222-223-benguet-revisited-by-richard-maturi-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-222-223-benguet-revisited-by-richard-maturi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-6-222-223-benguet-revisited-by-richard-maturi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c07-soun-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:7 (233-234): Sound Off: A case for rising energy prices by Joseph Holleman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sound Off:\nA case for rising energy prices\nby Joseph Holleman
Editor's Note: Mr Holleman was bold enough to write this in mid-June 1985 for our December issue.\nWhether correct or not, we feel an example of the thinking behind taking an actual position is valuable\nfor our readers.
Turn on your television set or pick up any newspaper these days and it won't be long before you'll be\nhearing the latest predictions that oil prices will soon collapse.
It's even being forecast that soon you'll again be able to find gasoline for 50 cents a gallon at your local\ngasoline service station.
And with OPEC members continuously backstabbing each other and seemingly never able to agree on\neven the time of day much less benchmark crude oil prices, it seems only a matter of time before those\nrosy predictions become reality and OPEC dissolves into nothing but a bad memory.
At least that's what all the \""experts\"" keep telling us.
In fact, right now you could probably fit all the energy analysts with long-term bullish opinions on energy\nprices into an average phone booth.
You might even have extra room in that same booth. Recently, I called several major brokerage firms to\nsee if they could recommend anybody, anywhere who presently had a long-term bullish opinion on the\nenergy markets.
Not a single firm had anyone to recommend."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-233-234-sound-off-a-case-for-rising-energy-prices-by-joseph-holleman-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-233-234-sound-off-a-case-for-rising-energy-prices-by-joseph-holleman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-233-234-sound-off-a-case-for-rising-energy-prices-by-joseph-holleman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c07-prof-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:7 (235-239): Profitability of selected technical indicators by Thomas R Drinka, Steven L. Kille, Eugene Mueller."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Profitability of selected technical indicators\nby Thomas R Drinka, Steven L. Kille, Eugene R. Mueller
The objectives of this paper are to review five popular technical indicators, summarize the capability of\nmicrocomputer programs developed jointly in the Department of Agriculture at Western Illinois\nUniversity and at MicroVest, and present on a periodic basis selected research results generated by these\nprograms.
Technical Analysis
There are four general approaches to technical market analysis: price charts, trend-following methods,\ncharacter-of-market analysis, and structural patterns.
One of the oldest known methods of market analysis is the price chart. The most popular method of\ncharting prices is the bar chart. The procedure is to graphically record the open, high, low, and settlement\nprices each day, week or month. Several variations have been developed, and the chartist observes market\ntrends as well as price patterns in an attempt to discover the future movement of market prices.\nUp-to-date price charts can be purchased at a modest cost, and some brokerage houses supply them to\ntheir customers free of charge. A major disadvantage of such charts is that the use of them requires\npersonal judgment to interpret chart formations. Furthermore, to the extent that the many traders who are\nfamiliar with these charts may act in concert, the charts themselves may be self-fulfilling.
The trend-following method of market analysis follows the basic rule of buying strength and selling\nweakness. It is assumed that an established price trend is more likely to continue than to reverse. The\nmoving average is a popular trend-following method. There are several variations of moving averages,\nand of identifying buy and sell signals from them; however, the only judgment involved relates to\nidentifying the precise time and method to trade after a trading signal is observed.
A simple average of daily settlement prices is the ratio of a sum of daily settlement prices divided by the\nnumber of settlement prices in the sum. A simple moving average of daily settlement prices is a\nprogressive average, in which the number of settlement prices in the sum remains the same, but the sum\nis taken over progressively different days. Each day that the moving average is computed, the settlement\nprice of the most recent day is included in the sum, while the settlement price of the eldest day is\nexcluded. A simple n-day moving average of settlement prices is defined as follows:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-235-239-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-by-thomas-r-drinka-steven-l-kille-eugene-mueller-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-235-239-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-by-thomas-r-drinka-steven-l-kille-eugene-mueller-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-235-239-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-by-thomas-r-drinka-steven-l-kille-eugene-mueller-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c07-disc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:7 (240-241): Discount broker blues Part 2 by Dan Weinberg"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Discount broker blues\nPart 2\nby Dan Weinberg
Beginner's Luck
Everyone assumes that when you talk about \""beginner's luck\"" you are referring to good luck. This is an\nincorrect assumption in many cases, and it certainly was with my early trades in the stock market.
Let's begin with those first ten stock trades. After realizing that I was $350 in the red before even getting\nout of the starting gate, I watched in amazement as my \""well-chosen stocks\"" began to descend in value,\neven as they had ascended during my \""practice period.'' These were no speculative stocks, mind you; they\nwere \""blue chips\"" stocks like IBM, Chrysler, Consolidated Edison (now Sara Lee) and General Motors, to\nname a few.
Naturally, as my losses mounted, I grew more and more frightened. While I don't have a wife whose\nanger I must assuage, I did have my self-respect to deal with, and it wasn't faring too well.
Although I picked good stocks during a \""bull market\"" (when stock prices were on the upswing), I readily\nlearned that stocks can go down as well as up. I caught the market during a downtrend, when people were\nselling off stocks that had made some pretty nice profits. I managed to lose about $850 in my first two\nweeks \""playing the market,\"" and that didn't even count commissions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-240-241-discount-broker-blues-part-2-by-dan-weinberg-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-240-241-discount-broker-blues-part-2-by-dan-weinberg-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-240-241-discount-broker-blues-part-2-by-dan-weinberg-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c07-und-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:7 (242-246): Understanding cycles by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Understanding cycles\nby John F. Ehlers
Introduction
The first thing we must recognize is that cycle analysis doesn't always work for profitable investment\nstrategy. This is no great surprise, because cycles must be present in the data history for any analysis of\nthem to be valid. Also, to be useful, we must assume that the cycles in the history will extend into the\nfuture so that a prediction can be made. This is sometimes impossible because of fundamental issues. For\nexample, a freeze in Florida will probably swamp any technical factors on orange juice futures. Even\nwithin these constraints for technical analysis, cycles can still be difficult.
This is the first of a series of articles on cycle analysis. In this article, we will go back to basics and\nbriefly review cycle theory to have a common basis for definitions. The program listing in the panel gives\nan ideal trading system for a perfectly cyclically varying price. More importantly, the program is\ninteractive to show the impact of dominant cycle resolution and spectral purity on the accuracy of the\ntrading system. In future articles, we will show how some of the traditional trading indicators can be\noptimized through the use of cycle analysis.
If you stop and think about it, you might ask \""Why did Welles Wilder use 14 days in his RSI? Is there a\nbetter period to use?\"" It turns out that the best period to use is related to the dominant cycle of the data\nhistory. Future articles will have discussions and program listings for the Relative Strength Indicator\n(RSI), Daily Trend Indicator (DTI) and Commodity Channel Indicator (CCI).
After studying this article you should be able to recognize when cycles are present, how to estimate the\ndominant cycle without extensive analysis, and whether there is sufficient spectral purity (1) to make\ncycle analysis useful."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-242-246-understanding-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-242-246-understanding-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-242-246-understanding-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c07-tech-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:7 (247-250): Technical analysis of NYSI/DJI by Howard Waxenberg"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical analysis of NYSI/DJI\nby Howard Waxenberg
There is a great amount of technical analysis that is done intraday by number crunching computers that\nare connected to online databases. For the majority of investors and money managers that do not have\naccess to computers and streams of up-to-the-second data there still remain a great many technical tools\nthat require only some time after the markets have closed, a calculator, and some graph paper.
These technical tools, when properly constructed and applied, can produce results equal to, if not better\nthan the workings of a personal computer with streams of data. One of the best examples of this basic\ntechnical analysis is the work that can be done with the daily and weekly figures for the number of\nadvancing and declining issues, the advance decline (a-d) lines and their derivatives.
There are seven different indexes for which information is readily available for a-d analysis. These\nindexes are the New York Composite, the American Stock Exchange, the NASDAQ Composite, the Dow\nJones Industrials, the Dow Jones Transports, the Dow Jones Utilities, and the Dow 20 Bond Index. For\neach of these indexes and averages, two a-d lines can be constructed, one using the daily a-d figures and\none using the weekly figures.
I put more importance on the daily lines in my work. For that reason and for the sake of brevity, I will\nconfine my discussion to the daily a-d line of just one index, the New York Composite. This line is\nconstructed from information from the New York Stock Exchange. Work with this line will yield\ninformation on the strength and direction of two indexes, the New York Composite (NYSI) and the Dow\nJones Industrials (DJI)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-247-250-technical-analysis-of-nysi-dji-by-howard-waxenberg-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-247-250-technical-analysis-of-nysi-dji-by-howard-waxenberg-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-7-247-250-technical-analysis-of-nysi-dji-by-howard-waxenberg-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c07-impl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:8 (252-255): Part II. Implementation Using Alpha-Beta Filtering A trend following method for all seasons by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Part II. Implementation Using Alpha-Beta\nFiltering\nA trend following method for all seasons\nby Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
Summary
In the June issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities we presented a trend following method\nfor stock and commodity trading which has a number of advantages over moving averages for trade\ntiming. The method consists of computing an upper and lower trend channel which defines an uncertainty\nband within which the market price fluctuates, and computing a trading filter which is used to make buy,\nsell, and hold decisions. Historical price data, the trend channels, and the trading filter are then plotted\ntogether to present a graphic analysis of the current trading environment. Figure 1 shows an example\nanalysis using this method, where the price data consists of weekly closing prices of the Fidelity Equity\nmutual fund.
The trend analysis plots are interpreted as follows:
(1) If the trading filter lies below the lower trend channel, an uptrend market is in progress and one\nshould buy or hold long market positions.
(2) If the trading filter lies between the trend channels, no trend is evident and one should liquidate any\ncurrent market positions.
(3) If the trading filter lies above the upper trend channel, a downtrend market is in progress and one\nshould sell or hold short market positions.
With this method, trade timing decisions are based on penetrations of the lower and upper trend channels,\ni.e., one should buy or sell long positions based on penetration of the trading filter through the lower\ntrend channel and should sell or cover short positions based on penetration of the upper trend channel.\nThis method has two primary advantages over moving averages for trend following:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-252-255-part-ii-implementation-using-alpha-beta-filtering-a-trend-following-method-for-all-seasons-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-252-255-part-ii-implementation-using-alpha-beta-filtering-a-trend-following-method-for-all-seasons-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-252-255-part-ii-implementation-using-alpha-beta-filtering-a-trend-following-method-for-all-seasons-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c07-fina-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:8 (256-256): Financial Futures"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Financial Futures
People trading financials often feel their instruments are only skimpily represented in standard chart\nservices. Despite the financials being the most active markets going currently, many services serve up a\nheavy diet of deferred corn contracts every week. Also, the traditional services don't understand the depth\nand complexity of the debt markets and therefore show only the tip of the proverbial iceberg—nearby\nfutures and a couple of rate charts you could get for free from the Fed.
FINANCIAL FUTURES is a complete solution for all of the above: full coverage of rate-sensitive\nmarkets (rate futures, stock indicies, energy, currencies and precious metals) together with extensive cash\nmarket, yield curve and spread charting. This one weekly or biweekly issue will give the financials trader\nmore ideas than he could ever hit for $325-$400 annually, depending on how you sign up.
What doesn't it have? Exotic technical indicators are missing for one thing. Wilder's Relative Strength,\nshort- and medium-term oscillators, and moving averages (5-10-20 days) are included with some\ncontracts, but this definitely is not the \""let's see if we can get everything on one page\"" school of thought.\nThe pages are full but cleanly plotted with duo-tone shading to facilitate reading. A typical set for Tbills\nis shown in Figure 1.
What has been selected is more important than how it has been presented. The only thing missing from\nmy regular trading pattern are the currency options—particularly Dmarks—and lumber, which you\nwouldn't expect in here anyway. To make up for that, all the spread, cash and yield info is here, while it's\nabsent in the other services."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-256-256-financial-futures-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-256-256-financial-futures-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-256-256-financial-futures-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c07-crook-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:8 (257-258): Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens: Trading Psychology by Fred S. Gehm"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens: Trading\nPsychology\nby Fred S. Gehm
In a competitive game like commodity trading, a player should hardly expect to receive good advice from\nthe other players. It's like asking the poker player across the table from you how you can beat him. Yet\nthere are men and women of good will in the market and good advice is available. Besides good will, one\nreason experienced traders will often give good advice is that they know that the better their advice the\nmore certainly it will be ignored. One cannot spend much time talking with traders without hearing a\ntrader asking his or her mentor, \""Why didn't you tell me that before?\"" And the mentor replying, \""I did!\""
Trading psychology is a subject that experienced traders consider important, if not critical, and beginning\ntraders generally consider of little interest and value. Some excellent advice is available in the books\nbelow and the reader will ignore it at his or her own peril."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-257-258-crooks-cranks-and-honest-citizens-trading-psychology-by-fred-s-gehm-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-257-258-crooks-cranks-and-honest-citizens-trading-psychology-by-fred-s-gehm-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-257-258-crooks-cranks-and-honest-citizens-trading-psychology-by-fred-s-gehm-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v03-c07-comm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-3-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.3:8 (258-259): Commodity spread"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Commodity spread
The Handbook of Commodity Spreads
Price: $39.95
Wayne Esserman
(800) 428-7808
(800) 382-7884 (Indiana)
EWE Publishing
P.O. Box 201
Delphi, Ind., 46923
The problem with spreads is that they just aren't sexy. There's not enough \""pop\"" in them, not enough\ngusto. They ooze along, steadily but minutely changing day in and day out —a banker's deal. Not for\nthem is the explosive single-day rally or collapse. Sure, the pros play these things and make money at\nthem, but what fun are they?
You have to follow at least two contracts at once, perhaps more. You have to worry about new crops and\nold crops. You can't figure out how to enter the order (\""premium to the deferred!?\"") without your broker\nlaughing at you. Getting data on past spread performance is an extra hassle. Updating it with your current\nsoftware/data source is close to impossible, so it has to be done by hand. All this to eke out $.06 in oats\nover six months? Are you kidding? So what if the ROI is 100% — it's still only $.06 for God's sake.
It can't be stated too strongly that the name of the game in futures is limiting the damage, not making big\npoints. The concept is alien to nearly all walks of American life. Most eyes are looking for the big wins,\nbut the trick is to be in the market long enough to take those big wins. Most traders don't think this way\nand the received wisdom is that, as a result, as many as 90% of retail traders lose their shirts and leave the\ngame. The nifty thing about spreads is not that they make big gouts of money but that they rarely lose\nlarge amounts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-258-259-commodity-spread-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-258-259-commodity-spread-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-3-8-258-259-commodity-spread-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c01-wyc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:1 (14-17): The Wyckoff method Trading and Investing in Stocks by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Wyckoff method Trading and Investing in Stocks by Jack K. Hutson
The first in a series of articles which outline the Richard D. Wyckoff method of trading stocks. This method provides a foundation for analyzing the fundamental relationships between the market's primary forces. Through the use of such techniques as volume analysis and studies of vertical line, figure and wave charts, Wyckoff developed a trading method which is still applicable to today's markets.
Richard Wyckoff's first instruction to students of his stock analysis method published in the 1930s was\nquite simple and specific—forget all the decision-making factors you ever used. All you need to know is\nin the table of stock prices and volumes in your daily newspaper.
With this back-to-basics approach, Wyckoff promised to show his students \""the real rules of the game\""\nplayed so adroitly by well-heeled investors with enough capital to pack clout in the market.
Although it's hard to imagine anything, especially a stock market technique, remaining viable from the\n1930s to the 1980s, The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks has survived the\ntimes as a classic. Whatever it lacks in glamour and gee-whiz in this computerized age, it makes up by\ngiving its users a solid foundation for analyzing the fundamental relationships among the market's\nprimary forces. In this respect, it's like the pearls and basic black dress in a woman's wardrobe. It can be\nembellished but not antiquated."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-14-17-the-wyckoff-method-trading-and-investing-in-stocks-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-14-17-the-wyckoff-method-trading-and-investing-in-stocks-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-14-17-the-wyckoff-method-trading-and-investing-in-stocks-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c01-mut-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:1 (18-21): Mutual funds by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Mutual funds by Bill Dunbar
A basic look at mutual funds: who they are for, how to choose one, why and when to switch. Also included are several sources of information to use to get specifics when deciding on a mutual fund.
In the past, critics of the Dow Theory have said, why worry about the averages—you can't invest in the\naverages. Well, you can now, of course, by putting your money into index options or futures. But, with\noptions, the house takes a big bite and you have to guess not only what the market is going to do, but\nalso, within a few months when it is going to do it. That's a pretty tough combination to beat, but there is\na much older and more reliable way to bet on the averages, one in which the odds are more in your\nfavor—investment companies. Granted, you don't have the leverage, but leverage works both ways, and\nwith just a little bit of work, you can do better than the averages by selecting the best funds or by timely\nswapping.
Investment companies can be classified as either open-end or closed-end. Closed-end companies have a\nfixed number of shares and they are traded on the market just like individual stocks at prices determined\nby supply and demand rather than net asset value (the total value of holdings divided by the number of\nshares outstanding). Open-end companies (usually called \""mutual funds\""), on the other hand, issue as\nmany shares as they wish, depending on the amount of investors' money they have to buy securities. The\nmutual funds can then be divided into two categories, those that charge a sales commission (or \""load\"")\nand those that don't (no-load funds). Superimposed on that grouping there is a cross-breakdown of\ninnumerable categories by objective, such as capital growth, income, tax-free, or special industry group."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-18-21-mutual-funds-by-bill-dunbar-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-18-21-mutual-funds-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-18-21-mutual-funds-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c01-last-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:1 (22-23): The last wild ride of the gold bears is upon us by Joseph Holleman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The last wild ride of the gold bears is upon us by Joseph Holleman
Holleman, a CTA and CPO, offers his opinions on where gold prices may be headed. These predictions demonstrate how positions in the market are developed and show the factors that shape a trader's reasoning about a specific market.
The precious metals markets are about to collapse and collapse hard. My indicators are presently\ncalling for a minimum move to $250 on gold and probably all the way down to the $150 level, also\ntaking silver and platinum with it to comparable levels.
Now, I hope most of you were sitting down when you read that last paragraph. If you weren't, I hope you\ndidn't hurt yourself when you fainted. Just let me say that there. is a \""silver\"" (no pun intended) lining in\nthis scenario.
First of all, there are going to be tremendous profits for traders on the short side of this move, which\nshould be underway by November. If you don't short gold until it breaks the $300 level basis in the\nDecember futures, you should still get at least a $40-$50 move on the downside."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-22-23-the-last-wild-ride-of-the-gold-bears-is-upon-us-by-joseph-holleman-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-22-23-the-last-wild-ride-of-the-gold-bears-is-upon-us-by-joseph-holleman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-22-23-the-last-wild-ride-of-the-gold-bears-is-upon-us-by-joseph-holleman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c01-does-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:1 (24-25): Does pyramiding make sense? by Fred Cehm"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Does pyramiding make sense? by Fred Cehm
The leverage obtained through pyramiding can be immense. But is it smart? Gehm examines the pyramiding technique and its possible consequences.
Recently, well-known traders and trading advisors have argued that pyramiding is one of the most\nimportant— if not the most important—money management techniques. Stanley Kroll, for example,\nattributes much of this success to pyramiding. \""If done correctly,\"" he states, \""it is the trader's best tool for\nbig profits in commodities.\""
Since Kroll apparently used this technique to turn $180,000 into more than $1 million during a three-year\nperiod, his advice should be taken seriously. Nevertheless, he is not necessarily correct. Is pyramiding of\nvalue?
Theoretically, an infinite number of ways to pyramid exist. Fortunately, all are variations on the upright\nand inverted pyramids."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-24-25-does-pyramiding-make-sense-by-fred-cehm-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-24-25-does-pyramiding-make-sense-by-fred-cehm-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-24-25-does-pyramiding-make-sense-by-fred-cehm-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c01-opti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:1 (26-28): Optimizing RSI with cycles by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Optimizing RSI with cycles by John F. Ehlers
A look at Wilder's Relative Strength Index oscillator and an optimization using cycles. Also included is a BASIC computer program which follows the author's optimization processes.
As an engineer I have often been puzzled by some of the terms used by investors. One example is the\nuse of \""oscillators\"" to form trading signals. I have always thought that an oscillator was a device that\ngenerated cycles. This caused my initial attraction to such indicators. I quickly learned that a trading\noscillator had nothing to do with cycles.
Used in the trading context, an oscillator is the difference in price (or volume or open interest) on two\nseparate days. If we create an oscillator for adjacent days, we have the discrete approximation to the\nderivative of the price function. I won't burden you with the differential calculus here, but the derivative\nof a sine wave (its rate of change, or \""momentum\"") is a cosine wave. This is interesting because the phase\nof the cosine wave leads the phase of the sine wave by 90 degrees."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-26-28-optimizing-rsi-with-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-26-28-optimizing-rsi-with-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-26-28-optimizing-rsi-with-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c01-chris-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:1 (36-39): A CHRISTMAS STORY by Ron Jaenisch"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A CHRISTMAS STORY by Ron Jaenisch
Jaenisch, a student of Professor Allen Andrews, reviews some of the Andrews Median Line and pivot point techniques in a whimsical story about trading Santa's account.
It was September 15, 1984 and time was getting short. Usually by the middle of September all the raw\nmaterials and supplies had been purchased and over 80 percent of the toys assembled. This year Santa\nknew he was in deep trouble. He needed one million dollars and only had $100,000. He looked at his\nproduction schedule and surmised that he could somehow make all the toys needed for Christmas if he\nhad the cash by November 10th.
As he was going through his mail, he noticed that there was an investment seminar in Los Angeles the\nnext day, so he got into his sleigh and took off for L.A. Robert Prechter seeing Santa at the door,\ninstructed the ticket takers to let him in at no charge, telling them that Santa was his personal guest.
Robert took Santa to the dressing rooms where he met all the great advisors. He told them of his\ndilemma. They all shook their heads and told him they couldn't do it. One of them made a joking\ncomment that there was only one man who even believed that it was possible. Santa asked who that was\nand the reply was Professor Allen Andrews in Florida."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-36-39-a-christmas-story-by-ron-jaenisch-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-36-39-a-christmas-story-by-ron-jaenisch-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-36-39-a-christmas-story-by-ron-jaenisch-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c01-char-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:1 (40-42): Charting the universe of funds by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Charting the universe of funds by Technical Analysis, Inc.
FUNDGRAF\nParsons Software\n118 Woodshire Drive\nParkersburg, West Virginia, 26101 (304) 424-5191\nPrice: $100\nComputer: IBM PC and compatibles
So wide-spread is today's speculative impulse that \""playing\"" the markets has spread to that bastion of\nconservative diversification, the mutual funds. Those who wouldn't dream of shorting an individual issue\ndon't hesitate to try picking tops and bottoms in the Magellan Fund. Naturally, for those folks, there is\nsoftware support available and FUNDGRAF is part of this genera: a program to chart prices and compare\nperformances of the vast universe of funds—and do it for around $100."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-40-42-charting-the-universe-of-funds-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-40-42-charting-the-universe-of-funds-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-40-42-charting-the-universe-of-funds-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c01-wild-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:1 (9-12): Wilder's back ...by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wilder's back ...by Technical Analysis, Inc.
An in-depth interview with J. Welles Wilder, developer of the popular Relative Strength Index and other technical indicators.
It's not often that truly original discoveries are made in technical market analysis. J. Welles Wilder,\nhowever, lays claim to an entire collection of systems that have reshaped contemporary commodities\ntrading and analysis.
Wilder's methods first came to light in 1978 with the publication of his book, New Concepts in Technical\nTrading Systems. The book is required reading among technical traders today, and many of its tools, such\nas the Relative Strength Index, are considered essential.
In 1983, Wilder's life took a completely different tack when he met Jim Sloman, a person he describes as\nexceptionally gifted. Sloman had been a stock broker and a commodity trader at one point in his\nprofessional life and introduced Wilder to his fundamental discovery about order in the markets. Sloman\ncalled his discovery Delta, a Greek letter from a word meaning door. Working with Sloman, Wilder\ncomputerized Delta and founded the Delta Society International to share the discovery and ensure its\nperpetuation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-9-12-wilder-s-back-by-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-9-12-wilder-s-back-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-1-9-12-wilder-s-back-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-ulti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (47-49): An ultimate oscillator program for the HP-41C(V) by Charles F. Johnson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""An ultimate oscillator program for the HP-41C(V) by Charles F. Johnson
Johnson describes the stochastic oscillator program he uses on his Hewlett-Packard HP-41C(V) hand-held calculator.
Relative strength and related types of indicators have long been used by the investment community to\nreveal potential overbought and oversold levels of price movements. In oscillator form, such indicators\ncan sometimes be helpful in predicting a change in direction of price movement. Divergences between a\nproperly designed oscillator and the price of the stock or commodity may have predictive value at \""tops\""\nand \""bottoms\"" of price movements. Obviously, such indicators are not the sole basis for an investment or\ntrading decision.
In the August, 1985 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine, Larry Williams\noutlined an \""Ultimate Oscillator.\"" (The October, 1985 issue contained an addendum to the method of\ncomputation on page 6 under \""Correction.\"") In this article and in the brief note in the October, 1985\nissue, the computation of the oscillator is discussed. This oscillator uses \""buying units\"" and \""total\nactivity.\"" The change in buying units (BU) in relation to the level of total activity (TA) results in\noverbought (top) or oversold (bottom) conditions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-47-49-an-ultimate-oscillator-program-for-the-hp-41c-v-by-charles-f-johnson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-47-49-an-ultimate-oscillator-program-for-the-hp-41c-v-by-charles-f-johnson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-47-49-an-ultimate-oscillator-program-for-the-hp-41c-v-by-charles-f-johnson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-rand-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (50-52): Random walk prices by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Random walk prices by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Are your trades based on skill or luck? Sherry's simple \""Skill Score\"" will show you how to determine whether your decisions are based on your trading prowess or the luck of the draw.
A recent article by Tomek and Querin (Journal of Futures Markets 1984) highlights some of the\nquestions that speculators and, particularly, technical analysts have or should have about how commodity\nprices are generated by a random walk process. This means that they believe that price generation is\nrandom and independent.
A common example of a random and independent process is tossing a fair coin. When you toss a coin in\nthe air, whether it lands heads or tails up is determined randomly. If you were to record the outcome of a\nlarge series of throws, you would expect about a 50-50 distribution of heads and tails. An independent\nprocess means that it does not possess a \""memory\""; that is, if you throw the coin five times and get five\nheads, this has no influence on the outcome of the sixth throw. It is as likely to come up a head or tail as\nthe first throw."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-50-52-random-walk-prices-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-50-52-random-walk-prices-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-50-52-random-walk-prices-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-skill-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (53-53): Skill or luck? by Clifford J Sherry Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Skill or luck? by Clifford J Sherry Ph.D.
Dr. Sherry examines the statistical concepts of randomness and independence as they affect prices in the markets. He outlines a method of determining whether or not prices are random and/or independent by using probability density functions, quantile analysis and chi-square methodology.
Gambling, legal or illegal, whether in a Vegas or Atlantic City casino, a carnival, or the backroom of your\nneighborhood club, is based almost totally on chance or 'luck.' This is especially true of games like Wheel\nof Fortune, roulette, slot machines, and dice games like craps (unless you happen to be a dice 'handler'\nwhich can get you into a lot of trouble). It is probably less true of games like blackjack (Twenty-one),\nwhich lends itself to card counting, or poker. But even these games have a significant luck factor."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-53-53-skill-or-luck-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-53-53-skill-or-luck-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-53-53-skill-or-luck-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-dis-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (57-59): Discount Broker Blues part 3 by Dan Weinberg"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Discount Broker Blues part 3 by Dan Weinberg
The conclusion to Weinberg's experiences as a novice trader learning how to play the game the hard way.
PURCHASE AND PANIC (PART TWO)\nMerger Mania is another form of Takeover Mania, but my example here is a wee bit different. As with\nStorer Communications, this time I thought I had an absolutely certain winner . . . (Are you starting to\nhear the melody of \""The Discount Broker Blues\"" a little more clearly?)
On January 31, I bought 100 shares of American Hospital Supply at the relatively low price of 315/8. The\ncompany manufactures and distributes hospital and laboratory supplies and equipment, and was—and\nstill is—rated A + by Standard & Poor's. I don't recall where I got the idea to buy the stock, but by this\ntime, I had become more proficient in researching and sizing up the companies I read about on the\nbusiness pages of the newspapers. American Hospital Supply (AHS) has paid a nice 3.7 percent dividend\nand had a relatively low Price-to-Earnings ratio (10), both good signs. In addition, it had chalked up\nsteady annual earnings increases since at least 1980. I felt confident that AHS would help make up for\nsome of my earlier losses."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-57-59-discount-broker-blues-part-3-by-dan-weinberg-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-57-59-discount-broker-blues-part-3-by-dan-weinberg-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-57-59-discount-broker-blues-part-3-by-dan-weinberg-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-mars-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (60-62): Marshall wave theory by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Marshall wave theory by John Sweeney
Yet another \""wave\"" is being added to the futures lexicon: the Marshall Wave. Originated by John\nMarshall (Box 2302, Naples, FL33939 (813) 263-3114. Marshall Wave is a complicated system for\ntrading futures in heavily diversified portfolios of contracts. Results for one 18-commodity portfolio\nactually traded since Christmas 1984 show an initial slow rise followed by a skyrocket rise beginning in\nMarch, 1985
As Marshall says, \""Heavy diversification is the key to success in trading commodity markets.\"" A\ncompleted Marshall portfolio would have 36 commodities in it when fully invested. Subsequently, the\nportfolio remains fully invested, either long or short in the direction of the Marshall Wave bias, in every\nsingle commodity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-60-62-marshall-wave-theory-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-60-62-marshall-wave-theory-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-60-62-marshall-wave-theory-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-dir-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (64-64): Direc-Tree by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Direc-Tree by John Sweeney
Micro-Z Company\n4 Santa Bella Road\nP.O. Box 2426\nRolling Hills, California, 90274\n(213) 377-1640
Micro-Z has enhanced an already handy product—Direc-Tree—by adding an editor and the ability to\nexecute a large list of programs automatically. This so-called \""shell program\"" had previously been\nfavorably reviewed for its ability to convert the impenetrable DOS 2.0+ tree structure to something fairly\nfriendly for the non-tech customer. The newest version is labeled \""3.5.\""
Direc-Tree makes DOS more livable by presenting the inherent tree structure visually. Next it eliminates\nthe long chain of hierarchical typing that DOS requires by replacing it with highlighted graphics and\nfunction keys. This effectively reduces the typing needed by 70 percent or perhaps more. You can do\neverything you can do in DOS (except FORMAT the hard disk) only far faster and with less confusion\nabout where you are in DOS."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-64-64-direc-tree-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-64-64-direc-tree-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-64-64-direc-tree-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-tech-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (65-68): Technical analysis of volume by Howard K. Waxenberg"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical analysis of volume by Howard K. Waxenberg
You don't need a computer for volume studies; the analysis presented here can be done with a calculator and The Wall Street Journal. This article provides an outline of technical tools derived from volume figures which can then be used for analysis to gauge the internal strength or weakness of a market.
In my last article I wrote about the technical analysis of the equity markets that could be accomplished\nwithout the aid of a computer or on-line database. In that article I showed an analysis of advance-decline\ndata. This article will continue along a similar theme, but I discuss volume and the technical analysis that\ncan be accomplished using technical tools developed from volume figures.
Volume analysis is one of the most important tools of technical analysis since volume can give an\nexcellent view of the internal structure of a market, a structure that is often hidden by external price\naction. An analysis of volume can give us a true measure of the amount of buying and selling that is\ntaking place and the energy behind each of these market forces. Also, the old market maxim still holds\ntrue, \""Volume precedes price.\"" This is more true today, and somewhat more self-fulfilling, as more and\nmore advisory services make their recommendations based on the internal volume readings for a market\nor stock."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-65-68-technical-analysis-of-volume-by-howard-k-waxenberg-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-65-68-technical-analysis-of-volume-by-howard-k-waxenberg-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-65-68-technical-analysis-of-volume-by-howard-k-waxenberg-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-prof-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (69-69): ProfitTaker by William Taylor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""ProfitTaker by William Taylor
Investment Growth Corporation\n1430 West Busch Blvd. Suite 4\nTampa, FL 33612\nLouis B. Mendelsohn, president\n(813) 933-1164\nCost:$595 for the Apple version\n$995 for the Advanced IBM version\nincludes $275 ProfitTuner report\nat no charge\nHardware requirements:\nApple II+, IIe, IIc (48K RAM)\nIBM PC/XT/AT or fully\ncompatible 265K RAM\nColor graphics ASCII printer
ProfitTaker is a fully disclosed (to the buyer) trading system using seven technical indicators including\nshort- and long-term oscillators, timing filters and sensitivity bands. What makes ProfitTaker different\nfrom other proprietary trading systems is that it was the first to allow the trader to vary the system's\nparameters to \""optimize\"" performance. This is important since different futures contracts behave\ndifferently. Also, unlike many trading systems, ProfitTaker is designed specifically for trading futures\nand as such takes into account the unique factors found only in the futures markets: rollover, lock limit\ndays, high leverage and a fast trading pace. ProfitTaker is both a trading signal generator, indicating when to buy or sell, and an historical testing program, allowing the trader to develop trading models and see\nhow well the contract has performed in the recent past."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-69-69-profittaker-by-william-taylor-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-69-69-profittaker-by-william-taylor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-69-69-profittaker-by-william-taylor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-elem-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (70-73): Elements of charting Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 2 by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Elements of charting Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 2 by Jack K. Hutson
The second of a series which presents the Richard D. Wyckoff method of trading stocks. In this article, the different types of charts upon which the Wyckoff method is based are examined. Vertical line, figure and wave charts are all essential to the study of the market using Wyckoff's techniques.
The two most desirable things to know about the stock market are when the final top of a bull market,\nan intermediate swing, or a minor move occur and when the final bottom of a bear market, an\nintermediate swing, or a minor move comes about.
Like everything else in stock market analysis, it's easier said than done. That's why the person who can\naccurately interpret charts to determine where the market lies at any given moment holds the key to\nsuccessful trading and investing.
The forecasting value of charts is the focus they bring to supply and demand, trading volume and the\nurgency of trading—the forces lifting and depressing prices. Charts tell an experienced reader whether\nthe market, a group of stocks, or any single stock is likely to advance, decline or stand still."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-70-73-elements-of-charting-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-2-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-70-73-elements-of-charting-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-2-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-70-73-elements-of-charting-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-2-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-opti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (77-80): Optimizing directional movement with cycles by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Optimizing directional movement with cycles by John F. Ehlers
Directional Movement, an approach which weighs the daily difference between highs and the difference between lows, can be optimized by applying cycle concepts. Ehlers explains the process and includes a BASIC computer program which features the optimized Directional Trend Indicator.
Directional Movement is a technical analysis approach that weighs the daily difference between highs\nand the difference between lows. The principle of this approach is that the larger difference will influence\nthe directional movement of the price. Welles Wilder was so enthusiastic about the approach that he\nbegins Section IV of his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems with \""Directional movement\nis the most fascinating concept I have studied.\""
While the approach isn't all that bad, I am a little more reserved in my assessment of it than Mr. Wilder.\nSince I am oriented toward the use of cycles, I immediately question why a 14-day averaging process is\nused not once, but twice in the calculation of his Directional Index. This article approaches Directional\nMovement from the perspective that there is perhaps an adaptive process to improve the indicator.
In the sections that follow, we briefly review Directional Movement in its classic form, review a few\nprinciples regarding cycles, and derive an optimized Directional Trend Indicator (DTI) when cycles are\npresent in the data. An interactive computer program listing is given to allow you to experiment with the\nlimitations of the optimized DTI and perhaps apply it to your trading system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-77-80-optimizing-directional-movement-with-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-77-80-optimizing-directional-movement-with-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-77-80-optimizing-directional-movement-with-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c02-mapt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:2 (81-82): A\""map\"" for the trading jungle by Grant D. Noble"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A\""map\"" for the trading jungle by Grant D. Noble
Most of the common methods used by traders can be classified under three main theories. Noble outlines these trading methods, then recommends a strategy for choosing those that best fit your trading style. His \""MAP\"" allows you to Minimize the time and money you spend, Analyze and compare valid methods, and Personalize what you find to fit your own account.
There are thousands of trading methods on the market, but many are worthless and most duplicate\nbetter methods. You need a \""MAP\"" to:
1. Minimize the time and money you spend,
2. Analyze and compare valid methods,
3. Personalize what you find to fit your own account.
The quickest way to minimize research is to avoid worthless methods in the first place. Study \""track\nrecords.\"" Do they contain only low volume futures or futures from a single complex? Is the data bad?\nDoes it contain non-trending as well as trending periods? It's easy to \""optimize\"" a \""system\"" to fit\ncomputer data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-81-82-a-map-for-the-trading-jungle-by-grant-d-noble-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-81-82-a-map-for-the-trading-jungle-by-grant-d-noble-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-2-81-82-a-map-for-the-trading-jungle-by-grant-d-noble-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c03-det-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:3 (101-104): Detecting a dependent process by Clifford J. Sherry Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Detecting a dependent process by Clifford J. Sherry Ph.D.
If you know the price of a commodity today, can you predict what the price will be tomorrow? Can you predict whether the price will increase or decrease? Dr. Sherry proposes a statistical method that allows you to determine which prices are random and/or independent.
If you know the price of a commodity today, can you predict what the price will be tomorrow? A week\nfrom tomorrow? A month? Can you predict whether the price will increase or decrease? By how much?\nThe answer to these questions depends on who you ask. Some people, like technical analysts, believe that\nyou can. Others do not.
One reason why this question is so difficult to answer is that there is no general agreement about how\ncommodity prices are generated. If the underlying process is random and/or independent, then you\nprobably cannot 'predict' price movement. But, if this is not true, if it is either non-random and/or\ndependent, then some 'pattern' exists in commodity prices. With the appropriate tools, you should be able\nto detect the pattern and use this information in your decisions about the market. It is important to realize\nthat randomness and independence are separate and distinct characteristics. For example, it is possible for\na process to be random and dependent, non-random and independent, etc."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-101-104-detecting-a-dependent-process-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-101-104-detecting-a-dependent-process-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-101-104-detecting-a-dependent-process-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c03-mark-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:3 (106-108): Market trends in composite averages Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 3 by Jack K. Hutson."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market trends in composite averages Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 3 by Jack K. Hutson.
By looking at Vertical Line charts of composite averages using Wyckoff analysis, you can learn where the market is taking your individual and group stock picks. This third part of the Wyckoff Method series shows you clues to pinpointing future market actions.
Now that you have an overview of the history and philosophy behind the Wyckoff Method and an\noutline of the procedures, let's start digging deeper into the actual techniques. Although we'll be\nconcentrating on the stock market, these techniques are equally valid in the commodities, currencies,\nbond, and precious metals markets.
Before you can master the Wyckoff Method, however, you must remember that judgment is the most\nimportant technique. You must use your mind and your experience because there are no fixed and firm\nrules about market behavior—only general guidelines.
Keep two rules firmly in your mind, and you'll greatly increase your likelihood of success with the\nWyckoff Method. The first rule is this: Don't expect the market to behave exactly the same way twice.\nThe market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly\nmodifies, combines, and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind\nof its own."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-106-108-market-trends-in-composite-averages-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-3-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-106-108-market-trends-in-composite-averages-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-3-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-106-108-market-trends-in-composite-averages-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-3-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c03-shef-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:3 (109-110): She flashes signals from the pit at CBT by Phyllis Brock"",""caption-linebreaks"":""She flashes signals from the pit at CBT by Phyllis Brock
At precisely 8:00 a.m. Central Time a buzzer sounds and the financial floor of the Chicago Board of\nTrade (CBT) bursts into life. Runners scurry about carrying messages between traders, brokers and\nclerks. A crescendo of sound rises and falls as voices blend into an incomprehensible roar.\nAccompanying the roar, raised hands flash a blur of signals. People wearing brightly colored jackets and\nlarge badges for identification swirl about. Another day of trading has begun.
Shouting at the top of her lungs to attract the attention of a telephone clerk, Marie Pawlyk frantically\nflashes hand signals from the top step of the Treasury Bond (T-Bond) pit. A slim blond with one brown\neye and one green eye, Pawlyk, a native of Chicago, calls herself a broker's clerk. Her job consists of\nkeeping track of the market while placing and remembering trades for the three brokers who are her\nemployers. If the telephone clerk doesn't acknowledge her signals, Pawlyk will have to send a runner over\nwith her order. Mistakes are costly and she has a reputation for making very few of them."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-109-110-she-flashes-signals-from-the-pit-at-cbt-by-phyllis-brock-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-109-110-she-flashes-signals-from-the-pit-at-cbt-by-phyllis-brock-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-109-110-she-flashes-signals-from-the-pit-at-cbt-by-phyllis-brock-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c03-mod-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:3 (111-119): Modeling with pattern recognition decision rules by Ted C. Earle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Modeling with pattern recognition decision rules by Ted C. Earle
Empirical decision rules can help you recognize patterns in price actions. Earle provides detailed buy and sell rules along with examples using data on gold price changes over time.
Most of the interest in using mathematical models in finance and economics involves models based\non hypothetical causal relationships described by quantitative mathematical functions. When these\nmodels work they may reflect substantial understanding of the system being simulated and provide a\nwealth of information about the internal relationships of the various factors included in the model. Many\nof these models have mathematical characteristics which allow them to be solved for optimal results. In\nthe areas of finance and economics, however, the quality of data is often so poor and the complexities of\nthe relationships so difficult to express that such models frequently seem to be unreliable\noversimplifications of the real world.
Another scientific tradition, empirical modeling, should then be considered for wider utilization in the\nareas of finance and economics. Empirical models may be of value when the more formal theoretical\nmodels are deemed inadequate because of high uncertainties or an inability to adequately express the\ncomplexities. Empirical models are developed by analyzing experimental data (in the case of finance and\neconomics, historical data)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-111-119-modeling-with-pattern-recognition-decision-rules-by-ted-c-earle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-111-119-modeling-with-pattern-recognition-decision-rules-by-ted-c-earle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-111-119-modeling-with-pattern-recognition-decision-rules-by-ted-c-earle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c03-per-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:3 (120-122): Personal Computer Hardware IBM Micro computer by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Personal Computer Hardware IBM Micro computer by Jack K. Hutson
Personal computers have given stock, option, and commodity traders a new look at financial data. For\nthe uninitiated, choosing a computer system can be an aggravating, time-consuming problem. One way of\ndeciding the type of hardware to purchase is to find out what hardware your software requires. Several\nyears ago, buying hardware to match the software was the only practical technique because there were so\nfew software manufacturers for stock data analysis. Now things have changed. There are dozens, if not\nhundreds, of pieces of software available to run on a menagerie of computer setups.
With a very straightforward, unscientific approach, I would like to help narrow down your choices of\nIBM PC hardware. I'll go over Apple and other microcomputers another time. There are some\nrequirements for technical analysis that your IBM PC must sustain to be minimally useful no matter what\nsoftware is used:
1) It must have a graphics monitor. You must be able to produce charts.
2) It must have sufficient permanent storage for data such as daily commodity quotes.
3) It must be capable of running a wide variety of software.
4) The components should be made by reputable, long-standing companies so that there will be no\nproblems with repairs or replacements."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-120-122-personal-computer-hardware-ibm-micro-computer-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-120-122-personal-computer-hardware-ibm-micro-computer-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-120-122-personal-computer-hardware-ibm-micro-computer-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c03-iomeg-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:3 (123-123): Iomega Corp.'s Bernoulli Box by Jack Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Iomega Corp.'s Bernoulli Box by Jack Hutson
To do any practical financial analysis on a computer requires a large historical database of facts and\nfigures including price information such as daily or weekly open, high, low, and close. Using an IBM PC\nor Apple Macintosh microcomputer, analysis of financial data is limited only by one's imagination and\navailable software limitations. To a large extent, the microcomputer, even though a bit slow in some\ncases, is more than adequate for the task."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-123-123-iomega-corp-s-bernoulli-box-by-jack-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-123-123-iomega-corp-s-bernoulli-box-by-jack-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-123-123-iomega-corp-s-bernoulli-box-by-jack-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c03-prec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:3 (89-92): Prechter on the Elliott Wave Theory By Melanie Bowman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Prechter on the Elliott Wave Theory By Melanie Bowman
The Elliott Wave Theorist's Robert Prechter discusses his views on Elliott analysis and how he thinks the markets work.
At age 36, Robert R. Prechter Jr. is, without a doubt, one of the youngest masters of technical analysis\nand today's foremost expert on the intricate Elliott Wave Principle, a market theory developed in the late\n1930s by Ralph N. Elliott.
Prechter is most often recognized in technical circles as the editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist, a\nmonthly newsletter forecasting the stock market, interest rates and gold and silver for approximately\n7,000 subscribers, and as publisher of The Elliott Wave Commodity Letter, a similar newsletter covering\nindustrial, agricultural and currency markets. Traders and market timers who follow the U.S. Trading\nChampionships also know him as the 1984 winner of the Options Division, a title won with an\nimpressive 444.4 percent gain in account equity in four months.
In this interview with Stocks & Commodities from his Georgia offices, Prechter describes his intriguing\noutlook on market action—an uncommon blend of behavioral sciences and self-taught technical analysis\nwhich he honed to a fine point under the employ of Merrill Lynch's Robert Farrell, a man considered by\nmany to be the master of master technicians."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-89-92-prechter-on-the-elliott-wave-theory-by-melanie-bowman-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-89-92-prechter-on-the-elliott-wave-theory-by-melanie-bowman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-89-92-prechter-on-the-elliott-wave-theory-by-melanie-bowman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c03-trad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:3 (93-97): Trading channels by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading channels by John F. Ehlers
Introduction
You don't have to examine price charts very long before you can picture the prices varying around a\ntrendline in a trading channel, having the trendline reverse, and the trading within the channel begin all\nover again. We will describe two methods that can help visualize the channels and identify the price turns\nthat comprise the channel edges. The first of these is the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) that measures\nthe price excursions from the mean as a statistical variation. The second method brackets the price\ntrading channel that is centered on a best-fitting straight trendline. Both approaches are included in the\nBASIC program listing so that their effects can be compared (Figure 6). The program is usable for your\ndaily trading with a simple conversion of daily prices into the program variable format.
\nCommodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI was first described by Donald Lambert (Commodities, October 1980, pp. 39-40). He described\nthe index to be like a \""standard score\"" in statistics. The basic approach is first to calculate the average\nprice value using a moving average. This establishes the center of a kind of trendline. Then, the mean\ndeviation from the trendline is calculated. The final step computes the daily difference from the moving\naverage as a ratio to the mean deviation. The ratio is divided by the constant .015 so that 70 to 80 percent\nof the variation falls within a +/– 100 percent channel index."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-93-97-trading-channels-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-93-97-trading-channels-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-93-97-trading-channels-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c03-rel-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:3 (98-100): Relevance III by Herbert R. Sorock"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Relevance III by Herbert R. Sorock
Relevance III Series\nHolt Investments, Inc.\n888 Lakemont Dr.\nNashville, TN 37220\n(615) 377-0788\nPrice: $399 (10-day money back guarantee, less $15 return fee)\nSummary:\nEase Of Use: A\nPerformance: A\nDocumentation: B\nError Handling: B\nVendor Support: A\nHardware Requirements:\nIBM PC or compatible\nColor graphics adapter card and graphics\nmonitor (see below)\nEpson or Epson-compatible graphics printer\nData Requirement:\nCommodity Systems, Inc. data format
Relevance III, from Holt Investments Inc., is a complete set of futures and stock charting programs for\nthe IBM PC. Although Relevance III offers screen display as well as hard copy printout, the emphasis is\non creating high quality printed charts. Utilizing the high resolution capability of the now-standard Epson\nseries of printers, the charts produced by these programs are among the best I have ever encountered.
The Relevance III package of software and documentation contains three diskettes which hold the nine\nseparate programs comprising the system. Although this number seems imposing, once values for the\ncharting parameters have been selected, only two of the nine programs are generally used on a day-to-day\nbasis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-98-100-relevance-iii-by-herbert-r-sorock-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-98-100-relevance-iii-by-herbert-r-sorock-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-3-98-100-relevance-iii-by-herbert-r-sorock-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-swee-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (127-129): SWEENEY AGONISTES by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SWEENEY AGONISTES by John Sweeney
OUR APPROACH\n- Believe it or not, there is method to our madness in publishing articles. Two series of articles going on\nright now are laying the groundwork for much more rigorous technical systems.
Clifford Sherry's articles are extracting the statistical techniques developed in neurophysiology for\nprocessing neural signals and applying them for our readers to trading time series. These articles\nconstitute an arsenal of tools to analyze and categorize—objectively—the markets with which you are\nworking.
It is important to me to know whether the market I'm following is behaving \""normally\"" or not. These\ntechniques should help you identify markets that are behaving in a consistent—and therefore\ntradable—manner. They can examine your data, detect patterns in the data and estimate how far into the\nfuture your forecasts may be valid."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-127-129-sweeney-agonistes-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-127-129-sweeney-agonistes-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-127-129-sweeney-agonistes-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-det-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (132-135): Detecting dependence part 2 by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Detecting dependence part 2 by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
In an article in the last issue (Stocks & Commodities, April 1986), I outlined a means of detecting\nwhether dependence existed between prices in a time series. To read this article, you should recall the\nmethod used in that article to create price change frequency histograms and divide them into classes.\nAlso, to avoid repetition, the exemplary data series from that article will be used.
Once you have generated the price change frequency histogram and divided it into the appropriate\nclasses, like thirds, and assigned each price change to a given class, you can use this sequential list of 1's,\n2's, and 3's to construct a number of potentially useful charts. I would like to describe two of these\ncharts—the price change density histogram, and the triggered price change histogram.
Density histograms
In order to construct these charts, you need to construct a series of 'bins' labeled b1, b2, b3, b4,...bn,\nwhich represent trading days, excluding weekends and holidays. You can have as many bins as you like,\nbut generally 30 is enough for most purposes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-132-135-detecting-dependence-part-2-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-132-135-detecting-dependence-part-2-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-132-135-detecting-dependence-part-2-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-wyc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (136-138): Wyckoff in action by David H. Weis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff in action by David H. Weis
In 1908, Richard D. Wyckoff began publishing The Ticker, a monthly magazine designed to educate the\npublic on how to understand and profit from the stock market. The early popularity of this magazine can\nbe attributed to the series of articles which Wyckoff wrote on tape reading. He had spent 20 years on\nWall Street and learned the secrets of the most successful traders who studied every transaction on the\nstock ticker. In describing James Keene, a successful syndicate manager, Wyckoff mentioned how he\npored over the tape as if in a trance, analyzing \""prices, volumes, and fluctuations down to the finest\nimaginable point.\""
Wyckoff, too, mastered the art of tape reading which he defined as a \""method for forecasting from what\nappears on the tape now, what is likely to appear in the future.\"" By studying the flow of buy and sell\norders into the marketplace, Wyckoff learned to recognize the behavior on the tape that revealed large\ninterests building a position prior to a markup or markdown in price."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-136-138-wyckoff-in-action-by-david-h-weis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-136-138-wyckoff-in-action-by-david-h-weis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-136-138-wyckoff-in-action-by-david-h-weis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-markf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (139-139): The Market Forecaster by Thomas R. Sewell"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Market Forecaster by Thomas R. Sewell
William Finnegan Associates, Inc.\n21235 Pacific Coast Highway\nMalibu, CA 90265\n(213) 456-5741.\nPrice: $285-$480 depending on hardware used.
In September, 1985, knowing I was interested in researching and utilizing market timing indicators,\nStocks & Commodities magazine asked if I would be interested in reviewing The Market Forecaster by\nWilliam Finnegan Associates, Inc.
The Market Forecaster is an econometric model that projects the market's net percent change (the\ndifference between the market's high and low) over the next 80 trading days. The Market Forecaster\nmanual refers to a correlation coefficient of .90 to the future market moves over a 22-year computer test.\nThe buy signals are generated by readings of +9 percent or higher, and sell signals of -7 percent or lower."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-139-139-the-market-forecaster-by-thomas-r-sewell-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-139-139-the-market-forecaster-by-thomas-r-sewell-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-139-139-the-market-forecaster-by-thomas-r-sewell-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-markn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (140-140): Market News by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market News by John Sweeney
Market News Service, Inc.\n490 El Camino Real\nBelmont, CA 94002\n(800) 227-2271
Want to tune in to what the financial big boys listen to when they trade? Market News might have the\nanswer for you. Their coverage of the nation's financial/political news can be installed in your home or\noffice so that the next time your bond position goes flip-flop you won't have to get through to your broker\nto find out what happened. Better yet, you might get out before it flops.
Typical customers for Market News are bank trading rooms, economic I research outfits, and large\ntraders in currencies or financials. Their service seems to be one that individual traders have overlooked."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-140-140-market-news-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-140-140-market-news-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-140-140-market-news-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-fin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (141-143): Fine-tuning the demand index by Thomas E. Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fine-tuning the demand index by Thomas E. Aspray
The Demand Index, which utilizes price and volume, calculates the buying pressure and selling pressure exerted on prices. These can be used to create an oscillator to identify accumulation or distribution in both stocks and commodities.
Introduction\nIn analyzing the commodity markets, I use a series of approximately twelve technical studies which I\nhave selected after extensive historical research. If these studies are in agreement (uniformly bearish or\nbullish), they determine how much emphasis to put on the daily studies.
For example, if the weekly studies are positive and the daily studies are negative, a short position would\nbe recommended only for scalpers, with close stops used. Conversely, if the daily studies were positive, a\nlarger position with wider stops could be taken. The studies I find most useful are those which combine\nthe price action with volume or open interest. One which I use extensively is the Demand Index,\ndeveloped by James Sibbet, which utilizes price and volume. I run this study in several different versions\nover both the daily and weekly data.
The study calculates the Buying Pressure (BP) and Selling Pressure (SP) in the following manner for the\nNo Limit version."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-141-143-fine-tuning-the-demand-index-by-thomas-e-aspray-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-141-143-fine-tuning-the-demand-index-by-thomas-e-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-141-143-fine-tuning-the-demand-index-by-thomas-e-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-cum-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (144-148): Cumulative Volume by Stuart Thomson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cumulative Volume by Stuart Thomson
Do you need a street map in a new city? Do you need any direction before buying or selling a stock?\nDo you need to know the right time to buy or sell stocks? And, do you need a feeling of certainty once\nyou have acted?
O.K. There is a technical tool available to anyone willing to do his own homework to achieve these ends.\nIt is based on supply and demand and is called Cumulative Volume, or CV for short.
If technical analysis can provide us with guidance for determining (1) the future trend of the market\ngenerally, and (2) the future trend of the particular stocks one is following, then ultimately the investment\nresults must be outstanding. This is the objective of my portfolio management system.
What causes a stock to move?
Haven't you looked at the price chart of a stock bumping along on a bottom or in a major downtrend and\nwondered if there was any clue as to when it would break out of such an unrelenting pattern?
We know there are two factors that strongly impact many aspects of our daily lives, namely, supply and\ndemand. A recent example is the coffee price snafu. Could supply and demand also affect stocks? The\nanswer is a resounding YES. The key ingredient that moves a stock is supply vs. demand for shares of\nthat stock. But how do we measure the trading of stocks? We do so by examining the volume of shares\nbeing traded in the stock and look for the divergent pattern between the volume and the stock price.\nNormally, the greater the divergent pattern that exists between the CV and the stock price, the more\ninteresting the stock becomes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-144-148-cumulative-volume-by-stuart-thomson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-144-148-cumulative-volume-by-stuart-thomson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-144-148-cumulative-volume-by-stuart-thomson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-right-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (150-153): The Right Time programs by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Right Time programs by John Sweeney
The Right Time Stock Program ($349)
The Right Time Futures Program ($349)
The Right Time Stock Index Program ($349)
Computer: IBM or Apple\nT.B.S.P., Inc.\n8821 Alcott Street\nLos Angeles, CA 90035\n(213) 275-0208
Suppose you had an acquaintance who told you he was doing pretty well in the market. He'd quit his\njob to work full-time at it and, several years later, he was still at it, apparently making a living at it and\nenjoying himself.
You keep in touch and one day he tells you he's put the whole thing on a computer and he's going to sell a\nlimited number of copies to the world. Naturally, he's not going to reveal the exact methods—that's all\nburied in the code. Back testing isn't available because he was busy trading the system, not accumulating\nrecords for future sales materials. The price is cheap—$349—for a set of software that, during demonstration—runs like a clock. Are you interested?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-150-153-the-right-time-programs-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-150-153-the-right-time-programs-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-150-153-the-right-time-programs-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-comp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (154-154): Computer-Assisted Investment Handbook by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Computer-Assisted Investment Handbook by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Programmed Press\nAlbert I.A. Bookbinder, Ph.D.\nElmont, N.Y., 11003\n(516) 775-0933.\nPrice $21.50 including\npostage/handling.\nProgram Disk: $100
In our constant search for quick-but-not-too-dirty ways to employ statistics in trading, we've finally run\nacross a little gem published in 1982. Computer-Assisted Investment Handbook is a compilation of 50\nBASIC programs, 22 chapters of explanation and an extensive bibliography covering the investment\nanalytics of diverse areas from the soybean crush to breakeven analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-154-154-computer-assisted-investment-handbook-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-154-154-computer-assisted-investment-handbook-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-154-154-computer-assisted-investment-handbook-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c04-opti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:4 (155-156): The optimization of a trading program by Robert C. Pelletier"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The optimization of a trading program by Robert C. Pelletier
Many people have purchased software which gives the opportunity to test various parameter\ncombinations to achieve the maximum profit results. For example, a system which may use three moving\naverages to determine market entry, market exit, and, perhaps, a stop parameter, might require the\ninvestigation of a range of moving average readings for each of the three moving averages.
Investigating all the combinations of three moving averages for a system where each moving average can\ntake on 10 possibilities would require the computer to evaluate 1,000 possibilities (10 ´ 10 ´ 10). The\nuser would then choose the combination of moving averages which produced the maximum profit and,\nperhaps, the minimum drawdown. He may then conclude that he has an optimum system which will work\nwith a certain reliability."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-155-156-the-optimization-of-a-trading-program-by-robert-c-pelletier-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-155-156-the-optimization-of-a-trading-program-by-robert-c-pelletier-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-4-155-156-the-optimization-of-a-trading-program-by-robert-c-pelletier-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c05-ctc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:5 (163-168): CTCR's BRUCE BABCOCK By Melanie Bowman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CTCR's BRUCE BABCOCK By Melanie Bowman
\""Perceptive\"" and \""to-the-point\"" describe Bruce Babcock, the attorney turned professional commodity\ntrader to whom thousands of traders now look for advice on what's hot and what's not in services,\nsystems, and software.
Babcock's best known newsletter, the Commodity Traders Consumer Report, is a one-stop resource for\nratings, reviews, and information on advisory services, trading systems, seminars and publications. His\nstyle is to \""lay it on the line,\"" report the good with the bad, and look for value at a reasonable price.
While earning his law degree in the late 1960s at the University of California at Berkeley, Babcock\nwhetted his taste for trading in the stock market. Using what was then an unpublicized idea, he and his\nroommate studied SEC insider trading, picked a tiny company and that first transaction, he recalls, \""was\nso successful, I studied for the bar exam without having to work.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-163-168-ctcr-s-bruce-babcock-by-melanie-bowman-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-163-168-ctcr-s-bruce-babcock-by-melanie-bowman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-163-168-ctcr-s-bruce-babcock-by-melanie-bowman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c05-left-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:5 (169-171): Left brain/right brain, reality and trading the markets by R.E. McMaster, Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Left brain/right brain, reality and trading the markets by R.E. McMaster, Jr.
The starting point for success in trading the markets profitably is to perceive market reality accurately.\nWhile this may sound obvious enough, most traders enter the marketplace with preconceptions, biases\nand incorrect perceptions of market reality. They soon learn, however, that the market is a ruthless\ntaskmaster. You either line up with the market's reality, or you lose money.
The market's consciousness, it seems, justifies itself in its harshness, as it points out to traders that there\nare only three realities possible in the marketplace. Markets can either move up, move down, or drift\nsideways. This simple recognition or, perhaps, the not so simple recognition of which of these three\nrealities is active at any particular time is all that is necessary to trade successfully. All of our analyses of\nthe markets are supposedly for the purpose of bringing our focus on the market reality so we can trade\nprofitably."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-169-171-left-brain-right-brain-reality-and-trading-the-markets-by-r-e-mcmaster-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-169-171-left-brain-right-brain-reality-and-trading-the-markets-by-r-e-mcmaster-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-169-171-left-brain-right-brain-reality-and-trading-the-markets-by-r-e-mcmaster-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c05-how-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:5 (172-175): How useful are stochastics for trading? by Jack D. Schwager and Norman Strahm"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How useful are stochastics for trading? by Jack D. Schwager and Norman Strahm
In the current popular trading systems terminology, a stochastic refers to a measure of the placement of\nthe current price within a recent range. If the current price is near the top part of the recent range, the\nstochastic will be high; if it is near the low end of the range, the stochastic will be low. Specifically, the\nstochastic can be defined as follows:
S
C L
H-L N
t = -
Ct = current closing price
H = high price during past N days
L = low price during past N days
N = number of days used to calculate the stochastic value
S = the stochastic's value on the Nth day
This definition uses daily price data, but any time interval can be used."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-172-175-how-useful-are-stochastics-for-trading-by-jack-d-schwager-and-norman-strahm-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-172-175-how-useful-are-stochastics-for-trading-by-jack-d-schwager-and-norman-strahm-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-172-175-how-useful-are-stochastics-for-trading-by-jack-d-schwager-and-norman-strahm-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c05-prec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:5 (176-176): Precision Ratio Compass by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Precision Ratio Compass by John Sweeney
Robert Prechter\nNEW CLASSICS LIBRARY\nP.O. Box 1618\nGainesville, GA 30503\nPrice: $249\n(NOT a Fibonacci number)
Robert Prechter's latest item for use in deciphering Elliott waves is a nicely machined set of ratio\ndividers. The Precision Ratio Compass is designed to speed up chart analysis by determining likely price\nlevels using Fibonacci relationships inherent in Elliott waves.
The alternative to using the compass is to laboriously read off the values from your charts, calculate the\nlikely price levels on a computer or calculator, and plot the levels on your chart. With the compass all this\nis reduced to three quick steps: (1) set the compass for the ratio you want, (2) set one end of points to the\nlength to which you wish comparisons made, and (3) flip the compass to use the opposite points and plot\nthe desired price level."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-176-176-precision-ratio-compass-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-176-176-precision-ratio-compass-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-176-176-precision-ratio-compass-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c05-usb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:5 (177-183): Using basic statistics for stops by Robert W. Hull, Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using basic statistics for stops by Robert W. Hull, Jr.
The primary purpose of this article is to use basic statistics to measure the degree of price volatility that\ncan occur on a daily basis in the copper market. These measures can then be used to place a stop or limit\norder that takes into account these natural daily price movements. The statistics that will be used will be\nthe mean, the standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation.
Many potentially profitable trades have ended up losing money or cutting profits short for the trader, as\nthe market has traded to a price where the trader had made a decision (a stop) to exit the market. This\ndecision may have been made and executed by the trader when the market moved into an uncomfortable\nrange, or it may have been the result of a stop placed with a broker. It is common to hear someone say\nthat they had given up a position that would have been profitable as, shortly after their decision, the\nmarket moved in the originally anticipated direction.
The price chosen by the trader as the stop will depend on the current price level and the amount of risk\nthe trader is willing to accept. This risk will be the dollar amount that either the individual feels he can\nafford to lose, or the size of the reduction in potential profit he risks giving up. This subjective approach\nto determining risk can cause a problem in that the natural volatility of the market might not be taken into\naccount. If his intuitive sense of risk is in disagreement with the natural movement of prices, losses or\nprofit reductions may occur."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-177-183-using-basic-statistics-for-stops-by-robert-w-hull-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-177-183-using-basic-statistics-for-stops-by-robert-w-hull-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-177-183-using-basic-statistics-for-stops-by-robert-w-hull-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c05-win-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:5 (185-187): Winning in the Futures Market (Three ways to beat the system) by Allen D. Hanson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Winning in the Futures Market (Three ways to beat the system) by Allen D. Hanson
There are very few successful futures traders. Most winners tend to give back their earnings and many\nof the people that try the commodity futures markets never really get to first base. Income tax accountants\nand bankers know full well that the average trader is a loser.
There is always the old question, \""Where are the rich commodity traders?\"" They are few and far between.\nAlmost everybody that I have known over the years that made it big in commodities also lost it big\neventually.
The market is a great taskmaster and a great personal equalizer. It is a challenge unsurpassed in difficulty.\nThat is why I trade it.
Let's examine the advantages and disadvantages of trading futures contracts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-185-187-winning-in-the-futures-market-three-ways-to-beat-the-system-by-allen-d-hanson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-185-187-winning-in-the-futures-market-three-ways-to-beat-the-system-by-allen-d-hanson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-185-187-winning-in-the-futures-market-three-ways-to-beat-the-system-by-allen-d-hanson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c05-wyc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:5 (188-190): Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 4 Understanding group stock behavior by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 4 Understanding group stock behavior by Jack K. Hutson
The Richard D. Wyckoff method of trading brings the technical analyst a clean, logical way to\nunderstand stock market behavior and to anticipate the most opportune trading and investment moments.\nThe Wyckoff analyst begins with charts of a broad composite market average, overlays charts of industry\ngroup averages and then, when that information is weighed, compares the trends and critical turning\npoints to the charts of individual stocks within the industry group.
Analyzing group averages is a vital step, because to go after individual stocks willy-nilly, without a plan\nof action, is to invite disaster or, at the very least, less-than-peak use of investment capital. Group\nbehavior guides a trader to the appropriate section of the market where individual stocks should be\nselected.
Group averages compared against broad market trends will show you where large-scale traders see\nsomething promising and are trading accordingly. By using these signals to make well-timed long or\nshort trades in conjunction with the safety of stop orders, you can make both the up and down sides of the\nstock market profitable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-188-190-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-4-understanding-group-stock-behavior-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-188-190-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-4-understanding-group-stock-behavior-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-188-190-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-4-understanding-group-stock-behavior-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c05-mesa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:5 (191-193): MESA by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MESA by John Sweeney
John F. Ehlers\nBox 1801\nGoleta, CA 93116\nCost: $350\nComputer: Apple II, 48K, 2 disk drives, DOS 3.3 (16 sectors)\n(Also Apple III in emulator mode and Franklin)\nPrinter with graphics is optional\nUnder development is a version that will run on an IBM PC with two disk drives or XT or AT
\nSeveral years ago there seems to have been a tremendous excitement over cycles. Advisers set up shop.\nFoundations were formed. Seminars were held. Much ink and many trees were sacrificed to getting out\nthe word.
Lately, there hasn't been as much press but the usage has become more sophisticated as traders\ndiscovered that, like everything else, cycles needed to be used as a portion of the overall picture— not the\nonly picture. That leaves the trader with his traditional problem: where to get the information and what to\nuse (if he doesn't have an engineering degree or a Masters in mathematics) to analyze it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-191-193-mesa-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-191-193-mesa-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-191-193-mesa-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c05-mech-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:5 (194-197): A mechanical trading system by William F. Eng"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A mechanical trading system by William F. Eng
As a professional floor trader at the Chicago Board of Figure 1 Trade, I have studied many trading\ntechniques. Some work and some don't. Most trading techniques work with the one missing element that\nwe all need—discipline. I preface this article with this caveat because I am of the firm belief that the best\nsystem, without minimal discipline, will fail. I have derived a very good approach to trading the markets\nand have seen this fail when others have used it because they lacked the discipline to follow it.\nIndependent of your approach, you must have discipline.
The approach described here is simple, and its simplicity gives it a tremendous amount of elegance. My\nsystem is based on swing charts. My first exposure to swing charts was in a technical analysis class\ntaught by a William D. Gann technique instructor. The beauty of using swing charts lies not in the fact\nthat you, the trader, can determine when you should position in the direction of a breakout of a price\nboundary, either upside or downside, but in the fact that such price boundaries can be used as stop loss\nlimit points. Therein lies the utility of swing charts. They may not flag you as to when you should take\nprofits, but they will definitely indicate when you should, and must, take limited losses on bad trades."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-194-197-a-mechanical-trading-system-by-william-f-eng-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-194-197-a-mechanical-trading-system-by-william-f-eng-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-5-194-197-a-mechanical-trading-system-by-william-f-eng-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-how-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (205-206): How W.D. Gann tipped me on R.H. Macy by Hans Hannula"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How W.D. Gann tipped me on R.H. Macy by Hans Hannula
A lot of people have heard of W.D. Gann's work on angles of support and resistance, but not much on\nhis other works. I would like to tell you a story about how some things he said in Successful Stock\nSelecting Methods In Wall Street (1) helped me to pick up on a case of possible insider buying and enjoy\nan exciting market experience.
I routinely scan the weekly issue of Stock Option Guide from William O'Neil & Company, looking for\nstocks whose chart action indicates a strong probability of a price move, which can then be leveraged by\nselecting the right put or call. I use a number of techniques, including the usual support/resistance,\ntrendlines, patterns, Elliott Waves, and some proprietary techniques of my own."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-205-206-how-w-d-gann-tipped-me-on-r-h-macy-by-hans-hannula-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-205-206-how-w-d-gann-tipped-me-on-r-h-macy-by-hans-hannula-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-205-206-how-w-d-gann-tipped-me-on-r-h-macy-by-hans-hannula-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-succ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (207-208): Succeeding with options part 1 by Leonard Yates"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Succeeding with options part 1 by Leonard Yates
An option is one of the most flexible forms of contractual agreements ever developed. Options may be\nused to take advantage of almost any type of market scenario one can imagine. There are option strategies\nthat can be used to profit from the expectation of increasing, decreasing, or stable prices, or of high or\nlow market volatility. Other strategies may be used to exploit situations where an option may be under- or\noverpriced relative to other options or the underlying asset. Options are usually available with many\ndifferent strike prices and terms to expiration on the same underlying asset. Therefore one generally can\ntailor a strategy close to one's goals.
Although option strategies may be developed that are very diverse in purpose and nature, they all have\none thing in common: they are all motivated by the promise of financial reward. Unfortunately, there is\nno such thing as a \""sure\"" option strategy; for every reward for which the investor grasps, he takes on a\ncorresponding risk. The risks and rewards associated with option trading generally balance when the\noption is fairly priced. Astute option traders, however, do not look for situations where risk and potential\nrewards balance; they look for situations where potential rewards seem to outweigh the associated risk."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-207-208-succeeding-with-options-part-1-by-leonard-yates-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-207-208-succeeding-with-options-part-1-by-leonard-yates-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-207-208-succeeding-with-options-part-1-by-leonard-yates-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-cyc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (209-214): Cycle Analysis: A comparison of the Fourier and Maximum Entropy methods by John F. Ehler"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cycle Analysis: A comparison of the Fourier and Maximum Entropy methods by John F. Ehler
The motivation for reducing price history to a mathematical expression is clear. If we can describe the\nprices mathematically, we have the means to extend the equation into the future to predict what the prices\nwill be. Cycle analysis is particularly attractive because, if a simple cycle is present and will extend into\nthe future, all we have to do is to wait until the prices reach a valley to buy and then wait again for the\nprice to reach the crest of a cycle before we sell."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-209-214-cycle-analysis-a-comparison-of-the-fourier-and-maximum-entropy-methods-by-john-f-ehler-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-209-214-cycle-analysis-a-comparison-of-the-fourier-and-maximum-entropy-methods-by-john-f-ehler-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-209-214-cycle-analysis-a-comparison-of-the-fourier-and-maximum-entropy-methods-by-john-f-ehler-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-fear-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (215-216): Fears of the trader by Ron Jaenisch"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fears of the trader by Ron Jaenisch
In order to eliminate fear from trading it may be useful to have an understanding of what it is and how\nwe generate it. Fear is actually a form of excitement and the only physiological difference between fear\nand excitement is an individual's breathing pattern. Next time you feel fear notice 1) your shallow\nbreathing, 2) the things you are saying to yourself, and 3) the pictures in your mind.
It has already been proven that what people feel has everything to do with what they imagine and nothing\nto do with reality. Reality is nothing more than a stimulus source. The stimuli are filtered through a belief\nsystem and an internal picture is generated by the individual. This picture may result in a person\nexperiencing an internal dialog which leads to a feeling, to action, or both."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-215-216-fears-of-the-trader-by-ron-jaenisch-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-215-216-fears-of-the-trader-by-ron-jaenisch-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-215-216-fears-of-the-trader-by-ron-jaenisch-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-are-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (217-219): Are junk stocks really dogs? by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are junk stocks really dogs? by Bill Dunbar
Why this article? In spite of what my wife says, I do follow my own advice, at least part of the time.\nIn some of the past issues of Stocks & Commodities I have promoted bottom fishing, not to catch healthy\ncorporations, but those that are in trouble. However, so many are available in that category now that I am\nhaving trouble limiting my investments. So I ask myself, how far should I go? I've had good luck with\njunk stocks in the past, but it could have been just that—luck. Maybe I have been shooting off my big\nmouth based on experience that's too limited. If I'm so sure that cheap stocks are the way to easy wealth,\nwhy don't I take profits in some of my more respectable winners and plow it all into junk?
Well, as an investor with technical inclinations, my thought is to turn to the past. The fundamental\napproach, if it was ever worth anything, certainly doesn't apply to junks. How can you place a value on a\nstock with negative earnings and even negative book value? If the corporation can't pay the interest on its\nloans and the creditors are pounding down the door, threatening involuntary bankruptcy and liquidation,\nwhat are the shares worth? Obviously on a fundamental basis, they are worth nothing, and yet the market\nplaces a value on them at something above zero. The value is usually based on pure speculation,\nspeculation that something good will happen, that the business climate will change for the better, that a\nnew and better management will take over, or that the corporation will sell off its unprofitable divisions\nand become robust once more. What basis is there for such fond hopes? At best, nothing except past\nexperience and, at worst, panting, drooling fantasies. Most of us have a tendency to remember the\nsuccessful recoveries and forget the ones that went under."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-217-219-are-junk-stocks-really-dogs-by-bill-dunbar-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-217-219-are-junk-stocks-really-dogs-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-217-219-are-junk-stocks-really-dogs-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-opt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (220-220): Options as a Strategic Investment by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Options as a Strategic Investment by John Sweeney
Lawrence McMillan\nNew York Institute of Finance\n70 Pine Street\nNew York, NY 10270\n(212) 344-2900\nPrice: $35\nIn Bellevue, Washington, lives a good friend, a skillful trader who learned his craft amid the\nmanipulations and back-stabbing of the coffee market while working for a major U.S. blender. He refined\nit in other hard commodities for Procter and Gamble, dealing in futures and cash merchandise for 30\nyears.
When stock options came out, he retired to the easy life trading them, thinking he'd found heaven on\nearth! Today, he's still cranking out cash shorting \""most of American industry\"" with options during a\npersistent bull market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-220-220-options-as-a-strategic-investment-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-220-220-options-as-a-strategic-investment-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-220-220-options-as-a-strategic-investment-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-app-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (221-223): Applying the Elliott Wave theory by Clarence J. Liataud"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Applying the Elliott Wave theory by Clarence J. Liataud
The validity of the Elliott Wave theory can be proven by p applying its wave sequence to any\nlong-range commodity or stock chart. The reason most analysts have trouble applying this theory while\nprices are unfolding is the difficulty in determining the shape and size of a current correction. However,\nif you keep in mind that after the first and third wave (whatever their size) there will be a correction, and\nonly a correction, you will know what price action to expect. The various shapes of corrections are below.
To apply the Elliott Wave theory to a given commodity, show how the price movement of that\ncommodity has progressed and conformed to the wave sequence of the theory. This will enable you to\nlocate in which wave prices are currently trading the overall pattern, thereby permitting you to estimate\nthe size and direction of the next known wave.
Five small waves make one larger wave. For example, five minor waves make one intermediate wave,\nfive intermediate waves make one major wave, and so on."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-221-223-applying-the-elliott-wave-theory-by-clarence-j-liataud-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-221-223-applying-the-elliott-wave-theory-by-clarence-j-liataud-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-221-223-applying-the-elliott-wave-theory-by-clarence-j-liataud-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-strat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (224-224): Strategic Investment Timing by Alexander Elder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Strategic Investment Timing by Alexander Elder
Dick A. Stoken\nMacMillan Publishing Co.\n866 Third Ave.\nNew York, NY 10022\n225 pages, hard cover, $14.95
Strategic Investment Timing is a well-researched, intellectually honest book that shows how the\neconomy works and how it affects the markets. Stoken condenses the multitude of fundamental forces\naffecting the economy into four major factors: cost of credit (long and short-term interest rates), the\nfour-year political cycle, inflation-deflation outlook (Producer's Price Index), and optimism-pessimism of\nthe mass of investors (the relative level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average). He convincingly shows\nhow, by combining these indicators, we can tell what stage of the investment cycle we are in, and trade\naccordingly. There are times when it is best to be invested in stocks, other times in bonds, still other\ntimes in commodities and hard assets, while sometimes it is best to be in cash. Stoken shows how to\nidentify the particular states of the market cycle and allocate assets for maximum gain."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-224-224-strategic-investment-timing-by-alexander-elder-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-224-224-strategic-investment-timing-by-alexander-elder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-224-224-strategic-investment-timing-by-alexander-elder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-run-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (225-227): Runs: A method for detecting 'rhythms' in prices by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Runs: A method for detecting 'rhythms' in prices by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Do runs or clusterings of like observations, such as 'rhythms' of price increases or decreases, occur by\nchance alone or is there some deterministic process at work? Statisticians have provided us with several\nsimple methods for determining if the number of runs (clusterings) in a set of data (like the prices of\nstocks or commodities) occurs by chance or not.
The data used to illustrate these methods are shown in Figure 1. These data were abstracted from a longer\nseries (Closing prices, soybean meal, 4/1/80—4/30/81) that has been used to illustrate other statistical\nmethods in technical analysis. In the first method (Stocks & Commodities, October, 1985), we examined\nthe sequential pairs of prices and determined if the first price pair was larger or smaller than the second\nand recorded a – or a + respectively. Then we compared the second and third price, the third and fourth,\nand so on. The results of these comparisons for the months of April, May, and June, 1980 are shown in\nthe table under Method 1."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-225-227-runs-a-method-for-detecting-rhythms-in-prices-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-225-227-runs-a-method-for-detecting-rhythms-in-prices-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-225-227-runs-a-method-for-detecting-rhythms-in-prices-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-comm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (228-228): Comex the Game by William T. Taylor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Comex the Game by William T. Taylor
Commodity Exchange, Inc.\nFour World Trade Center\nNew York, NY 10048\n(212) 938-8026\n(800) 233-3443\nPrice: $69.95
This software package from the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) is a futures options trading\nsimulation game. The intent is to provide real-life like data, including futures prices for the COMEX\nGold and Silver contracts, as well as news items that could affect these prices. Your job as the\nparticipant, is to assimilate all of the information, formulate a strategy and then take one of several\npositions in the market.
Most of the documentation for this game consists of marketing blurbs from COMEX. This includes\nbrochures on gold and silver futures and options, and a book entitled COMEX Precious Metals Options:\nStrategies for the Investor. This booklet explains the use of options and demonstrates the various\nstrategies to use in different market conditions. Each strategy is shown with an accompanying graph\nillustrating the risk that is taken. I found this to be very helpful in formulating my trading strategies\nduring the course of the game."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-228-228-comex-the-game-by-william-t-taylor-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-228-228-comex-the-game-by-william-t-taylor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-228-228-comex-the-game-by-william-t-taylor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-wyc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (229-232): Part 5: Wyckoff method of trading stocks: Prelude to individual charting reading by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Part 5: Wyckoff method of trading stocks: Prelude to individual charting reading by Jack K. Hutson
Averages—both market and group averages—are essential to stock market analysis and your\ninvestment or trading strategy with the Richard D. Wyckoff Method. But the true test of analysis begins\nwhen we move from market and group averages into the third stage of chart interpretation—the charts of\nindividual stocks.
This is where a trader/investor absolutely must learn the fine points of market operation and technical\nindicators. There's no more \""averaging\"" here, no margin for sloppy interpretation. Your money and, yes,\nyour reputation are now on the line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-229-232-part-5-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-prelude-to-individual-charting-reading-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-229-232-part-5-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-prelude-to-individual-charting-reading-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-229-232-part-5-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-prelude-to-individual-charting-reading-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-spre-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (233-236): Spreadsheets - a universal technical analysis program? by Stuart G. Meibuhr"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spreadsheets - a universal technical analysis program? by Stuart G. Meibuhr
A spreadsheet is often the first computer program people buy after getting a computer. Spreadsheets\nare merely electronic pieces of paper divided into rows and columns, the intersections of which define\ncells that permit the entry of text, numbers, or formulae, thereby allowing the user to create a worksheet\ndedicated to doing a specific task. The word \""worksheet\"" defines a spreadsheet that contains text,\nnumbers, or formulae, in effect the data file of interest, whereas the word \""spreadsheet\"" merely refers to\nthe computer program.
Investors or traders can make a spreadsheet to 1) perform portfolio accounting—keeping track of the\nprofit/loss action of trading; 2) do technical analyses of the overall market incorporating daily, weekly, or\nmonthly data; and 3) do technical analyses of individual stocks. Even fundamental analyses of stocks can\nbe performed easily with a spreadsheet."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-233-236-spreadsheets-a-universal-technical-analysis-program-by-stuart-g-meibuhr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-233-236-spreadsheets-a-universal-technical-analysis-program-by-stuart-g-meibuhr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-233-236-spreadsheets-a-universal-technical-analysis-program-by-stuart-g-meibuhr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c06-techn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:6 (241-243): TechniFilter by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TechniFilter by John Sweeney
RTR Software Systems, Inc.\n444 Executive Center Blvd.\nSuite 225\nEl Paso, Texas 79902\nPrice: $299\nPhone: (915) 544-4397\nSummary:\nEase of use: C+\nDocumentation: B\nReliability: A\nError Handling: A\nVendor Support: unknown\nHardware Requirements:\nIBM XT or PC with at least 128K RAM, two double-sided disk drives, and IBM DOS 2.0.\nOptionally, an 80-column dot-matrix printer.
TechniFilter is a program which will hook on to your database of Dow-Jones data and compute a number\nof trend-following and trend reversal indicators, following which it will simulate the results of using\nthose indicators to buy and sell stocks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-241-243-technifilter-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-241-243-technifilter-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-6-241-243-technifilter-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-cons-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (254-255): Considering risk by James Covington Bryce"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Considering risk by James Covington Bryce
Risk and reward appear to be a double-edged sword. Most professionals advocate that you calculate\nthem both before entering a position. This is normally done in terms of a ratio where first you determine\nthe difference between your entry price and your stop loss—this is your risk. Then you determine the\ndifference between your entry point and your expected profit. This is your reward. A risk-to-reward ratio\nof 1-to-3 is normally considered the minimum you should accept and ratios of 1-to-5 or higher are even\nbetter.
Let's look at this idea a little more carefully. In calculating the risk part of the equation, we can be\nrelatively certain that the calculation will be accurate—with the exception of being caught in a limit\nmove if you trade commodities—assuming you allow enough for slippage. Allowing for slippage means\nallowing for fills that are slightly unfavorable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-254-255-considering-risk-by-james-covington-bryce-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-254-255-considering-risk-by-james-covington-bryce-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-254-255-considering-risk-by-james-covington-bryce-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-asses-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (256-258): part 1 Assessing risk on Wall Street A philosophy of investing by Thomas A. Rorro"",""caption-linebreaks"":""part 1 Assessing risk on Wall Street A philosophy of investing by Thomas A. Rorro
The goal of investing is to make a profit. To achieve this goal, the investor places his money at\nrisk—with the hope of increasing his wealth. Whether by buying real estate, depositing funds in a savings\naccount, or buying shares of stock, the investor wants to protect his current assets and make a profit.
Investors invest with an intuitive knowledge of risk. But only the banking community has been able to\nquantify both the expected profit and the risk. Most banks provide a specified rate of return in a risk-free\nenvironment. The risk is removed by the federal government through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.\n(FDIC) or a similar agency. Prudent money market investors carefully scrutinize interest rates knowing\nthat the risk is negligible."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-256-258-part-1-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-a-philosophy-of-investing-by-thomas-a-rorro-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-256-258-part-1-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-a-philosophy-of-investing-by-thomas-a-rorro-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-256-258-part-1-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-a-philosophy-of-investing-by-thomas-a-rorro-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-nsqu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (259-260): N-Squared Stock & Futures Analyzer-XL N-Squared Market Analyzer-XL by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""N-Squared Stock & Futures Analyzer-XL N-Squared Market Analyzer-XL by John Sweeney
N-Squared Computing,\n5318 Forest Ridge Road,\nSilverton, OR 97381,\n(503) 873-5906\nComputer: IBM with 256K,\ngraphics card, DOS 2.0+,\nApple II with 64K\nPrice: $395 each or $595 for both, including an interface with N-Squared's on-line database.
Author Greg Morris has impressed us in the past with his refinements of various technical indicies (see\n\""Facelift for an Old Favorite,\"" Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, October 1985). This review\ncovers the package he uses to do the work."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-259-260-n-squared-stock-futures-analyzer-xl-n-squared-market-analyzer-xl-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-259-260-n-squared-stock-futures-analyzer-xl-n-squared-market-analyzer-xl-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-259-260-n-squared-stock-futures-analyzer-xl-n-squared-market-analyzer-xl-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-dail-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (261-266): Daily price and volume study: trading windows by Frank Tarkany"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Daily price and volume study: trading windows by Frank Tarkany
This article investigates day-to-day price changes of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages (DJIA) and\nNew York Stock Exchange (NYSE) total volume over a 85 year period to see whether the changes are\nrandom and/or serial independent, as is generally believed.
Using a chi-square (x2) goodness of fit statistical analysis of daily DJIA price and NYSE volume\nchanges, I found statistically significant trading windows in both series. The NYSE volume is serially\ntime dependent while the DJIA daily closing price is both non-random and serially time dependent."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-261-266-daily-price-and-volume-study-trading-windows-by-frank-tarkany-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-261-266-daily-price-and-volume-study-trading-windows-by-frank-tarkany-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-261-266-daily-price-and-volume-study-trading-windows-by-frank-tarkany-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-succ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (267-274): part 2 Succeeding with options by Leonard Yates"",""caption-linebreaks"":""part 2 Succeeding with options by Leonard Yates
As promised in the first half of this article, here are three safe and reliable methods for succeeding in\noptions without forecasting the underlying security.
Method #1: Temporary mispricings
Options frequently trade for as much as a one-half point difference from theoretical values for short\nperiods. In such times of temporary mispricings, you should buy undervalued options and/or sell\novervalued options. Strategies can be found that minimize your exposure to price movements in the\nunderlying asset if desired, while waiting for option prices to return to normal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-267-274-part-2-succeeding-with-options-by-leonard-yates-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-267-274-part-2-succeeding-with-options-by-leonard-yates-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-267-274-part-2-succeeding-with-options-by-leonard-yates-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-sidebb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (272-274): SIDEBAR: The basics by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: The basics by Technical Analysis, Inc.
There is a special vocabulary of options trading that must be mastered in order to understand the uses\nof options and communicate with brokers and other option traders.
An option is a legal contract that gives the holder the right to buy or sell a specified amount of the\nunderlying asset at a fixed or determinable price (called the exercise or strike price) upon exercise of the\noption. Options that can be exercised at any time before they expire are sometimes called American\noptions. They are to be distinguished from European options, which can be exercised only during a\nspecified period immediately before expiration. Almost all listed options that trade in the United States\nare of the American type."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-272-274-sidebar-the-basics-by-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-272-274-sidebar-the-basics-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-272-274-sidebar-the-basics-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-rela-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (275-277): The relative strength quality factor by Donald Jones and Tod Stromquist"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The relative strength quality factor by Donald Jones and Tod Stromquist
The relative strength index (RSI), as popularized by J. Welles Wilder in his book and later by a chart\nservice, is possibly the most widely used technical indicator in futures trading. An oscillator, the RSI can\ntake values from zero to l00, with 50 being the neutral, or most expected value. As suggested by Wilder\nand generally used, an RSI of 70 or more indicates an overbought (OB) market; 30 or less is oversold\n(OS). Consequently, the real action, i.e., the OB/OS areas, tends to be crammed into limited regions.\nExperience has shown that for many less volatile contracts the 70+ and 30-regions are rarely visited by\nthe RSI, even when the contract is active.
This relative insensitivity of the standard RSI can be eased by adapting it to a more market-oriented view.\nWe developed a \""quality factor\"" (QL) by tying the RSI to each individual future. The QL is based on the\nlife-of-contract historical average of that particular future's RSI rather than on some arbitrary value like\n70. This article will show the QL to be more sensitive, less limited in its extension and as easy to\ncalculate as the RSI itself."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-275-277-the-relative-strength-quality-factor-by-donald-jones-and-tod-stromquist-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-275-277-the-relative-strength-quality-factor-by-donald-jones-and-tod-stromquist-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-275-277-the-relative-strength-quality-factor-by-donald-jones-and-tod-stromquist-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-agri-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (278-278): Agricultural Options by Dr. Alexander Elder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Agricultural Options by Dr. Alexander Elder
Agricultural Options\nGeorge Angell\nAmerican Management Associates\n135 West 50th St.\nNew York, NY 10020\n230 pages, $22.95 hardcover
It used to be that each new book by George Angell could be counted on to provide fresh insights into the\nworkings of the futures markets and give a few good trading ideas, Agricultural Options, however, is\nrelatively disappointing for anyone who has read Angell's earlier books.
This is the author's first major foray into the new and growing field of agricultural options. Buying\nagricultural options allows market participants to profit from price moves in soybeans, wheat, corn,\ncattle, hogs, cotton, and sugar. Risk is limited to the option's premium. Unlike futures, the potential risk\nis spelled out from the outset, but the profit potential is still unlimited."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-278-278-agricultural-options-by-dr-alexander-elder-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-278-278-agricultural-options-by-dr-alexander-elder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-278-278-agricultural-options-by-dr-alexander-elder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-wyc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (279-281): Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 6 Figure charts by Jack K Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 6 Figure charts by Jack K Hutson
Thus far in this series we've concentrated on the price volume information supplied by vertical charts,\nwhich are the mainstay of Richard D. Wyckoff's technical analysis. But as an adjunct to vertical charts,\nmost Wyckoff analysts also employ figure charts, which record only price movement.
Figure charting allows the analyst to quickly see where and how strongly supply or support is building\nand to actually calculate the distance a price should rise or fall. Therefore with a vertical chart pointing\nout direction, the figure chart shows just how far that direction should travel."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-279-281-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-6-figure-charts-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-279-281-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-6-figure-charts-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-279-281-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-6-figure-charts-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-sidebo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (281): SIDEBAR: Ode to the Sow or Bellies Up by Wilbur Corella"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Ode to the Sow or Bellies Up by Wilbur Corella"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-281-sidebar-ode-to-the-sow-or-bellies-up-by-wilbur-corella-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-281-sidebar-ode-to-the-sow-or-bellies-up-by-wilbur-corella-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-281-sidebar-ode-to-the-sow-or-bellies-up-by-wilbur-corella-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-prof-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (284-287): Profit Stalker II by Hans Hannula"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Profit Stalker II by Hans Hannula
Buttondown Software\nP.O. Box 19493\nSan Diego, CA 92119\n(619) 463-7474
Profit Stalker II, Release 2.1, $250 + $3 shipping.
Hardware Requirements:\nApple 512K Macintosh Imagewriter\nModem for download of prices (optional)
Overview\nTechnical trading is hours and hours of tedious charting, interspersed with moments of exciting trading.\nOr so it seems. But personal computers and good software are changing that. Now there is an excellent\nsolution to the charting problem for Macintosh owners. It's called Profit Stalker II, and it comes from a\ncompany with the unlikely name of Buttondown Software."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-284-287-profit-stalker-ii-by-hans-hannula-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-284-287-profit-stalker-ii-by-hans-hannula-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-284-287-profit-stalker-ii-by-hans-hannula-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c07-blue-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:7 (288-289): BLUE CHIPS by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""BLUE CHIPS by John Sweeney
EHLERS\nP.O. Box 1801\nGoleta, CA 93116\nIntroductory Price: $99\nComputer: Apple II family with 48K memory and two disk drives.
In Stocks & Commodities' continuing search for good software available for less than our borrowing\ncapacity ($100), I've run across relatively few programs. BLUE CHIPS squeezes in under our limit, but\nthere's a catch: you may need a second program to take maximum advantage of BLUE CHIPS. I'll say\nmore on that in a minute."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-288-289-blue-chips-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-288-289-blue-chips-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-7-288-289-blue-chips-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-week-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (295-297): Weekly price and volume by Frank Tarkany"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Weekly price and volume by Frank Tarkany
The daily DJIA closing price and NYSE total volume from January 2, 1897 to December 31, 1985\nwere used to construct a weekly data series. The week's closing price and total volume contained 4,623\ndata pairs, about 18.65 percent of the original daily data series. This weekly data series was then\ninvestigated for non-random and serial dependent trading windows with an eye to comparing the results\nto those from the daily data.
Figures 1, 2, 3, and 4 show the weekly non-random and serial dependent chi-square x2 values for the\nDJIA weekly closing price and total NYSE volume from 1897 to 1985. Both the average chi-square value\nand the lowest chi-square value are shown for each lag which is plotted here in weeks. The 95 percent\nand 99 percent confidence level chi-square values are indicated to facilitate inspection."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-295-297-weekly-price-and-volume-by-frank-tarkany-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-295-297-weekly-price-and-volume-by-frank-tarkany-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-295-297-weekly-price-and-volume-by-frank-tarkany-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-letjak-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (299-300): Letter to Jake by Stuart J. Pahn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letter to Jake by Stuart J. Pahn
Dear Jake,\nYou asked me to explain some of the main factors I consider when making a trade. Let me use my most\nrecent trade as an example.\nAs the attached equity run shows, I sold short a contract of June Comex gold on May 1, at $345.10, and\ncovered it May 6 at $343 for a gross profit of $2.10, per contract.\nThe accompanying chart shows the daily price action of June gold with a couple of moving averages\nsuperimposed and volume plotted below the price bars. As a long-time Wyckoff student, I usually begin\nanalysis by examining the price/volume relationship...."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-299-300-letter-to-jake-by-stuart-j-pahn-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-299-300-letter-to-jake-by-stuart-j-pahn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-299-300-letter-to-jake-by-stuart-j-pahn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-app-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (301-304): Applied artificial intelligence by Jerry Felsen, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Applied artificial intelligence by Jerry Felsen, Ph.D.
Both the science of cybernetics and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are central to the design of\nviable man-computer investment decision systems.
Cybernetics has been defined as the interdisciplinary science of communication and control in the animal\nand machine. Its major province is the study of systems which may be exceedingly complex and dynamic\n. . . perhaps defying a full description. These are exactly the sort of systems faced by the investment\nanalyst."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-301-304-applied-artificial-intelligence-by-jerry-felsen-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-301-304-applied-artificial-intelligence-by-jerry-felsen-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-301-304-applied-artificial-intelligence-by-jerry-felsen-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-soj-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (305-305): A sojourn through random territory by Henry S. Patricoff"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A sojourn through random territory by Henry S. Patricoff
The New York Stock Exchange Advance/Decline (A/D) figures, dice, and roulette have a bit in common\non a probability basis.
The figures are for these particular 6,500 trials. At some future sampling, they can be quite different, but\nno doubt will meander above and below the probability line.
The following shows runs of 1, 2, 3, or more pluses in a row."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-305-305-a-sojourn-through-random-territory-by-henry-s-patricoff-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-305-305-a-sojourn-through-random-territory-by-henry-s-patricoff-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-305-305-a-sojourn-through-random-territory-by-henry-s-patricoff-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-coord-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (306-308): Wyckoff Part 7: Coordinating vertical and figure charts for more effective forecasting by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff Part 7: Coordinating vertical and figure charts for more effective forecasting by Jack K. Hutson
Vertical charts, alone, are a detailed source of information for the Richard D. Wyckoff analysis of\nindividual stocks groups and the market. But when the analyst combines vertical charts with figure\ncharts, even better results are possible.
Vertical charts with their price-volume information point out where trends are headed, while the price\ninformation in figure charts shows just how far the trends should go. The vertical figure chart duo,\ntherefore, makes for more complete diagnosis and more effective forecasts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-306-308-wyckoff-part-7-coordinating-vertical-and-figure-charts-for-more-effective-forecasting-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-306-308-wyckoff-part-7-coordinating-vertical-and-figure-charts-for-more-effective-forecasting-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-306-308-wyckoff-part-7-coordinating-vertical-and-figure-charts-for-more-effective-forecasting-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-asses-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (309-314): Assessing risk on Wall Street part 2: Applying the Random Walk by Thomas A. Rorro"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Assessing risk on Wall Street part 2: Applying the Random Walk by Thomas A. Rorro
The Random Walk theory lets the investor evaluate the risk of an investment before the investment is\nmade. In the first article in this three-part series, the potential profitability of this approach was\ndemonstrated. Investments were reduced to a graphic representation of profit vs. the underlying common\nstock price. In this article, we will examine a technical analysis approach to the Random Walk.
Profit characteristics of basic investments
The profit characteristics of market instruments are determined by their nature. Investors avoid many of\nthem because of lack of understanding or an inherent fear of the risk involved. In fact, all market\ninstruments should be viewed as tools for building profit and controlling risk. Figure 1 displays the profit\ncharacteristics of simple market instruments, showing both long and short positions. In these\nrepresentations, market instruments are described as a function of annualized percent profit and the\nunderlying common stock price."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-309-314-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-part-2-applying-the-random-walk-by-thomas-a-rorro-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-309-314-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-part-2-applying-the-random-walk-by-thomas-a-rorro-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-309-314-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-part-2-applying-the-random-walk-by-thomas-a-rorro-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-trad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (315-315): Trading Tactics A livestock futures anthology by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Tactics A livestock futures anthology by John Sweeney
Editor: Todd Lofton\nPublisher: Chicago Mercantile Exchange\nAgricultural Commodity Marketing\n30 South Wacker Drive\nChicago, IL 60606\n(312) 930-8213 (direct line to order the book)\nPrice: $29.95
Trading Tactics will serve novice traders well as a survey of approaches to trading the livestock and\nmeat futures. Those who have four or five years under their belts may find that some of the chapters are\nuseful introductions to areas in which they have not spent time. Those who are not about to change their\nestablished, effective trading style need read no further."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-315-315-trading-tactics-a-livestock-futures-anthology-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-315-315-trading-tactics-a-livestock-futures-anthology-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-315-315-trading-tactics-a-livestock-futures-anthology-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-arej-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (316-318): part 2: Are junk stocks really dogs? by Bill Dunbar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""part 2: Are junk stocks really dogs? by Bill Dunbar
This is the second part of an article by the same title published in a previous issue of Stocks &\nCommodities. In the first half, my question was related to investment in junk stocks near the peak of the\nmarket cycle. The question was: what is the risk in a portfolio of junks under such circumstances? The\nanswer was: on the average, less risk than in a portfolio of respectable stocks. The part that was missing\nwas what the relative gains were if the stock had been purchased just prior to a healthy bull market. Since\nit required a different selection of stocks, I deferred it till now."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-316-318-part-2-are-junk-stocks-really-dogs-by-bill-dunbar-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-316-318-part-2-are-junk-stocks-really-dogs-by-bill-dunbar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-316-318-part-2-are-junk-stocks-really-dogs-by-bill-dunbar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-detec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (319-320): Detecting hidden signals by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Detecting hidden signals by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Do you have a signal, such as a particular pattern of price movements, that is buried in noise like\nrandom fluctuations or seasonal trends? If you believe this signal is time-locked to some internal event,\nlike a particular pattern of price changes, or an external event, like the beginning of a trading week or\nmonth, you may be able to use a relatively powerful technique called averaging to detect your signal.\nAveraging is done with a special-purpose computer and is used in such disciplines as neurophysiology or\nelectrical engineering to detect a signal buried in noise.
You can use this technique on raw prices, price changes, or categories of prices or price changes. For the\npurpose of illustration, I will use categories of price changes as the data. The technique used to establish\nthe categories is described in the April 1986 issue of Stocks & Commodities (\""Detecting a Dependent\nProcess\"")."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-319-320-detecting-hidden-signals-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-319-320-detecting-hidden-signals-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-319-320-detecting-hidden-signals-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c08-techa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:8 (321-324): Technical analysis of the Dow 20 Bond Index by Howard Waxenberg"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical analysis of the Dow 20 Bond Index by Howard Waxenberg
Over the years, the correlation between moves in the bond market and moves in the stock market has\nbeen tremendous. In the last several years, we have repeatedly seen the condition where bonds rally and\nthen four to six weeks later stocks start a bull move. There is a repeating pattern at tops as well where\nbonds top out and, on average, two weeks later equities begin to falter. So, it makes sense then, that\npredicting moves in the bond market through technical analysis has two effects. First, of course, is\npredicting the future direction of bonds and interest rates, and second, through knowing the direction of\nbonds we can have an outlook on equities, both the direction and the duration of an expected move.
Today there are many measures of the debt markets and many debt markets to measure. There are\ngovernment and corporate bonds and notes, Treasury bills, debt instruments from government agencies,\nCDs, the money markets, and so on. There are financial futures, options on financial futures, closed end\nbond funds, utility stocks and here, in the investment vehicles, the list also goes on."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-321-324-technical-analysis-of-the-dow-20-bond-index-by-howard-waxenberg-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-321-324-technical-analysis-of-the-dow-20-bond-index-by-howard-waxenberg-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-8-321-324-technical-analysis-of-the-dow-20-bond-index-by-howard-waxenberg-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-cyc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (325-328): Cycle Analysis à la Peter Eliades By Melanie Bowman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cycle Analysis à la Peter Eliades By Melanie Bowman
Perhaps best known in recent months for his Number 1 standing in Timer Digest rankings, Peter Eliades\napproaches the stock market from a combination of cyclic and technical analysis. Eliades divides his\ncycle analysis into two categories—time cycles which identify time periods for potential bottoms and\nprice cycles from which price projections for the popular averages are derived. Technical analysis\nconfirms or contradicts the cycle analysis.
Eliades is a Harvard College graduate in the physical sciences, a graduate of Boston University Law\nSchool, and a member of the Massachusetts Bar.
In this recent interview from his stock market advisory office in California, Eliades describes for Stocks\n& Commodities both his unorthodox view of market movements and his equally unorthodox career as a\ntrader-turned-publisher. His Stockmarket Cycles newsletter celebrated its 11th anniversary this year and,\nsince 1972, he has been a stock market analyst on Los Angeles television station KWHY."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-325-328-cycle-analysis-la-peter-eliades-by-melanie-bowman-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-325-328-cycle-analysis-la-peter-eliades-by-melanie-bowman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-325-328-cycle-analysis-la-peter-eliades-by-melanie-bowman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-asse-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (331-333): Assessing risk on Wall Street by Thomas A. Rorro"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Assessing risk on Wall Street by Thomas A. Rorro
We have discussed the Random Walk theory as a philosophy of investing and its technical\nimplications. This final article in the series presents the framework for spreadsheet implementation of the\nconcepts presented thus far. Any electronic spreadsheet program can be used.
How can the Random Walk theory be applied to determine the worth of an investment before it is made?\nThree indicators are used:
- Probability of a Profit (PP)—the risk to the initial capital investment;
- Expected Profit (EP)—a measure of the expected rate of return; and
- Sigma in the Profit (SP)—a measure of the variability of the expected rate of return."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-331-333-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-by-thomas-a-rorro-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-331-333-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-by-thomas-a-rorro-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-331-333-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-by-thomas-a-rorro-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-alpa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (334-335): Alpha-beta trend-following revisited by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Alpha-beta trend-following revisited by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
In the June and December 1985 issues of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine, I\npresented a new method for trend-following based on the use of alpha-beta filtering for trade timing and\nbuy, sell, hold market decisions. This method is similar to the use of moving averages for trade timing,\nbut has two primary advantages over moving averages:
1) The method utilizes an uncertainty band about current prices to eliminate many of the false alarm\ntrading signals given by conventional moving averages.
2) The method identifies periods of time to be out of the market on the stock or commodity being\nanalyzed, i.e., whenever a long-term trading filter moves within the uncertainty band or trend channel."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-334-335-alpha-beta-trend-following-revisited-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-334-335-alpha-beta-trend-following-revisited-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-334-335-alpha-beta-trend-following-revisited-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-inv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (336-339): Investigating chart patterns using Markov analysis by Curtis McKallip, Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Investigating chart patterns using Markov analysis by Curtis McKallip, Jr.
Most traders, at one time or another, have utilized elementary price patterns such as trendlines,\ntriangles, gaps, and flags. The identifying characteristics and measuring properties of these patterns are\nwell known. Patterns also have predictive components and are usually divided into two classes:\ncontinuation patterns and reversal patterns, depending on their most frequent chart positions. This article\ntabulates a large number of transitions from one pattern to another and identifies the ones which are\nstatistically significant.
A statistical method known as Markov analysis is easily adapted to study pattern transitions on price\ncharts. This method is used by scientists to study many natural processes in which previous events\ninfluence, but do not rigidly control, subsequent events."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-336-339-investigating-chart-patterns-using-markov-analysis-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-336-339-investigating-chart-patterns-using-markov-analysis-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-336-339-investigating-chart-patterns-using-markov-analysis-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-sideb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (336-339): SIDEBAR: Markov analysis by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Markov analysis by Technical Analysis, Inc.
A natural process which has a random element but also shows the effects of previous events influencing\nsubsequent events is a Markov process. Markov models lie in the spectrum between fully deterministic\nmodels (such as y = 3 * x) and independent events models (where the probability of a system being in a\nparticular state is not affected by previous states). They lie somewhere between the beliefs of random\nwalk theorists and those who explain the markets using deterministic equations. Although they do not\nallow one to pin down exactly what is going to happen, they are particularly useful for when one wants to\nlook for significant patterns in data sets. In trading, they can help assign risk factors to trades and identify\nrecurring relationships.
Markov analysis is really a family of techniques based on transition matrices. The terminology involved\ndepends on data collection and processing techniques. The list below summarizes some of them."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-336-339-sidebar-markov-analysis-by-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-336-339-sidebar-markov-analysis-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-336-339-sidebar-markov-analysis-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-wyc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (340-342): Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 8 Trendlines: Refinements in charting by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 8 Trendlines: Refinements in charting by Jack K. Hutson
Like any complex activity, chart interpretation includes some aids to the process. Trendlines are one of\nthese aids that help Richard D. Wyckoff analysts visualize what is occurring in their Vertical and Figure\ncharts.
The rationale behind Trendlines is straightforward. When a stock is being accumulated, it is storing up\nthe force of demand which is the power for an ensuing upward movement. The force of demand gives\nprice a certain momentum to carry it higher until demand is diminished or a new force of supply strong\nenough to change its path comes into the picture. An indication that demand may be dying out on a rise\nor that supply is gaining the upper hand is the tendency of prices to arch over or flatten out."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-340-342-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-8-trendlines-refinements-in-charting-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-340-342-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-8-trendlines-refinements-in-charting-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-340-342-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-8-trendlines-refinements-in-charting-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-rsi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (343-346): The Relative Strength Index by J. Welles Wilder, Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Relative Strength Index by J. Welles Wilder, Jr.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a tool which can add a new dimension to chart interpretation\nwhen plotted in conjunction with a daily bar chart. Some of these interpretative factors are:
Tops and bottoms are indicated when the RSI goes above 70 or drops below 30;
Chart formations which often show up graphically on the RSI may not be apparent on the bar chart;
Failure swings above 70 or below 30 on the RSI scale are strong indications of market reversals;
Support and resistance often show up clearly on the RSI before becoming apparent on the bar chart;
Divergence between the RSI and price action on the chart is a very strong indication that a market turning\npoint is imminent.
Before taking up the equation for calculating the Relative Strength Index, let's examine briefly the\nmomentum concept upon which the RSI is based."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-343-346-the-relative-strength-index-by-j-welles-wilder-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-343-346-the-relative-strength-index-by-j-welles-wilder-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-343-346-the-relative-strength-index-by-j-welles-wilder-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-comp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (347-348): Computerized RSI programs by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Computerized RSI programs by Technical Analysis, Inc.
The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) has proven itself over the past eight years to be a consistent\noverbought-oversold indicator as well as an effective trading tool. A change in price direction has often\nbeen observed subsequent to a divergence between price and the RSI. Because of this, the RSI is\npublished in numerous chart services as well as software programs, either online via telephone or in\nstand-alone programs such as the CompuTrac system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-347-348-computerized-rsi-programs-by-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-347-348-computerized-rsi-programs-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-347-348-computerized-rsi-programs-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-eval-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (352-354): Evaluting the COMMODEX(R) System by Ronald R. Goodis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Evaluting the COMMODEX(R) System by Ronald R. Goodis
The COMMODEXÒ System— practically every futures trader has heard of it. Most serious traders\nsubscribe to it. It remains the only daily futures system published in the world and is internationally\ncirculated through the TYMNETÒ computer network and over Telerate.
Yet, few have ever really followed the \""pure\"" COMMODEX system and it has been the subject of\npopular controversy since it began in 1959. In fact, there was even an \""Anti-COMMODEX System\""\narticle published in the July/August 1984 issue of this magazine. In our age of \""new\"" and \""sure-fire\""\ncommodity techniques, it is interesting to examine a system which has survived more than 27\nconsecutive years. What is the COMMODEX system? How does it work? Can it really produce profits?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-352-354-evaluting-the-commodex-r-system-by-ronald-r-goodis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-352-354-evaluting-the-commodex-r-system-by-ronald-r-goodis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-352-354-evaluting-the-commodex-r-system-by-ronald-r-goodis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v04-c09-nmet-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-4-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.4:9 (355-356): The n-method by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The n-method by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Are large increases or decreases in the price of a given stock or commodity evenly distributed\nthroughout the trading day? The trading week? The trading month? Or are there detectable patterns in\nthese price changes? I recently demonstrated that, for soybean meal, a large price increase is more likely\nto occur on the first day of a trading week than on any other day. I used the triggered price change\nhistogram (described in detail in Stocks & Commodities, June 1986) to find this pattern. The histogram is\nshown in Figure 1.
Now, you can take this finding, or findings you develop yourself using the triggered price change\nhistogram or some related technique, at face value and use the information derived in your trading\ndecisions. Or, you may require some statistical confirmation of the finding. If you do, you can use a\ntechnique that meteorologists and astronomers use to confirm patterns in the phenomena that they study.\nThis statistical technique is called the n-method."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-355-356-the-n-method-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-355-356-the-n-method-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-4-9-355-356-the-n-method-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c01-backtrk-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:1 (10-13): Back Trak High Tech by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Back Trak High Tech by John Sweeney
MicroVest\nP.O. Box 272\nMacomb, IL 61455\n(309) 837-4512
Instruments: Stocks, Futures
Computer: IBM PC, XT, AT with 512K; 2 floppies or 1 floppy and 1 hard disk - drive; DOS 2.0 or\nhigher; IBM graphics card and/or color monitor supported; 80-or 132-column IBM/EPSON\ncompatible printer.
Databases Supported: Commodity Systems, Inc., 200 W. Palmetto Pk. Rd., Suite 200, Boca Raton,\nFL 33432, (305) 392-8663; Nite Line, 175 West Jackson, Suite A 1038, Chicago, IL 60604, (312)\n427-5125.
Prices: Back Trak and High Tech (IBM only) $695; High Tech $295.
This is a slick package and probably a \""Best Buy.\"" It will store data for you, extract it for study, apply\nup to 51 different technical studies to it, graph the results (on High Tech only) for your visual inspection,\nrun simulations of trading strategies using the studies and techniques of money management that you\nselect, and, finally, optimize the parameters of those studies to produce a trading system. The only thing\nleft to do is phone in the orders!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-10-13-back-trak-high-tech-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-10-13-back-trak-high-tech-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-10-13-back-trak-high-tech-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c01-direc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:1 (14-14): Direc-Tree PLUS by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Direc-Tree PLUS by John Sweeney
VERSION 5.0\nMicro-Z\n4 Santa Bella Road\nRolling Hills Estates, CA 90274\n(213) 377-1640
Computer: IBM-PC, XT, AT
Price: $49 list
It's hard to believe that a program as handy as Dtree (our shorthand here at S&C ) could get handier.\nWe've reviewed it favorably before, so our biases are well-known. We use it on all our IBM-like\nmachines which run anything from subscription maintenance programs to technical analysis applications.
When we first met Dtree, it was a simple organizer for hierarchical file structures--of so we thought.\nLater, it turned out to be a word processor and program \""booter.\"" From our standpoint, it made life much\nmore efficient as we jumped from application to application with one or two keystrokes. If even that was\ntoo much, we could write down the sequence of keystrokes and have Dtree do them for us--or our staff!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-14-14-direc-tree-plus-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-14-14-direc-tree-plus-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-14-14-direc-tree-plus-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c01-metastk-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:1 (15-18): MetaStock Downloader by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MetaStock Downloader by John Sweeney
Computer Asset Management\nP.O. Box 26743\nSalt Lake City, UT 84126\n(801) 964-0391
Computer: IBM PC, XT, AT with 256K+ RAM and two drives; IBM color graphics adapter and\nmonitor
Price: MetaStock $195; Downloader $49; Both $224
This is a high-value package. For not much money, as these things go today, MetaStock, together with\nDownloader, will gather, store and maintain your data; chart it with a wide variety of pointers, comments,\nlines, and angles, and analyze it with a solid selection of technical indicators. It will install and run with\npractically no glitches and considerable sophistication. It's soundly conceived and easy to use."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-15-18-metastock-downloader-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-15-18-metastock-downloader-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-15-18-metastock-downloader-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c01-master-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:1 (19-23): Master Chartist by Robert Bukowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Master Chartist by Robert Bukowski
Roberts-Slade, Inc.\n750 North 200 West Suite 301B\nProvo, UT 84601\n(801) 375-6847
Computer: Apple Macintosh
Price: $1,340 + $125/year; data stream:\n$ 170-$300/month
Short-term traders hold onto your hats! Real-time charting/technical analysis has taken a quantum leap\ninto the space age with Master Chartist (available at a reasonably down-to-earth price considering the\nvalue it holds for an active trader)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-19-23-master-chartist-by-robert-bukowski-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-19-23-master-chartist-by-robert-bukowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-1-19-23-master-chartist-by-robert-bukowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c10-develop-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:10 (316-318): Developing a personal trading style The Wyckoff method of trading Part 14 by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Developing a personal trading style The Wyckoff method of trading Part 14 by Jack K. Hutson
Trading the stock market with the Wyckoff Method is as much a test of personality and personal\nperseverance as it is a test of analytic education. Wyckoff was strictly a loner when it came to studying\nand trading the stock market. He believed the best way, the only way, his students would become\nprofitable technical analysts was to rely on their own intelligence and to develop an inner fortitude\nagainst inevitable mistakes.
To his way of thinking, mastering the technical aspects of his method was only half the battle of working\nthe stock market. Controlling emotional fervor and keeping a clear head when actually applying the\ntechnical know-how in a not-so-perfect market was the other half. Traders or investors wouldn't be able\nto do that, he felt, if they were continually looking for advice from others or if their technical reasoning\nwas poisoned with rumors and news reports."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-316-318-developing-a-personal-trading-style-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-part-14-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-316-318-developing-a-personal-trading-style-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-part-14-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-316-318-developing-a-personal-trading-style-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-part-14-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c10-cyclic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:10 (319-324): Cyclical analysis of stock prices with astrology by Robert S. Kimball"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cyclical analysis of stock prices with astrology by Robert S. Kimball
Over the past four years I have participated in a research project that has sought to test the validity of a\nrather controversial and unorthodox approach to cyclical analysis. The primary objective of this project\nwas to test some of the more obscure elements of W.D. Gann's effort to establish correlations between\nindividual stock prices and planetary cycles.
Of course, a semantic roadblock immediately presents itself: to even suggest that planetary cycles could\nhave a relationship to stock prices causes an audible shudder in the minds of many rational thinkers. For\nsome, it is more respectable to use the word \""astronomical\"" rather than \""astrological.\"" Whether we call it\nastrology, as Gann did, or something else, the practical question to ask is: Can the study of planetary\ncycles enable stock option traders to realize an increased profit advantage?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-319-324-cyclical-analysis-of-stock-prices-with-astrology-by-robert-s-kimball-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-319-324-cyclical-analysis-of-stock-prices-with-astrology-by-robert-s-kimball-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-319-324-cyclical-analysis-of-stock-prices-with-astrology-by-robert-s-kimball-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c10-sidebar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:10 (324): SIDEBAR: Prices and Cycles by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Prices and Cycles by Technical Analysis, Inc.
There appears to be a correlation between the magnitude of a stock price move and the strength of the\nplanetary cycle.
Article Figure 3 is a scatter plot on which the vertical scale denotes the number of positive points for a\ngiven corporation at the crest of a wave. The horizontal scale indicates the percentage the stock price\nincreased between the predicted buy date and the predicted sell date. Each dot represents one successful\ntransaction and each x represents a losing transaction."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-324-sidebar-prices-and-cycles-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-324-sidebar-prices-and-cycles-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-324-sidebar-prices-and-cycles-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c10-underst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:10 (325-325): Understanding Randomness Exercises For Statisticians by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Understanding Randomness Exercises For Statisticians by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Author: David Salsburg
Publisher: Marcel Dekker, NY, 1983
If you are an investor, whether you believe in the efficient market hypothesis or not, it important for you\nto understand how a random process works. This book consists of a series of exercises that are designed\nto help the reader distinguish between patterns that occur in a series of numbers (stock prices, etc.) as a\nresult of random noise and those that occur because of some underlying structure.
Some understanding of elementary statistics (chi-square, etc.) is helpful, but a strong mathematical\nbackground is not required to understand the text or the exercises. The exercises in the book are designed\nto be played with using simple statistics and seeing how various manipulations of the sample data affect\nthe ultimate results. The reader is encouraged to create graphical displays, so as to examine the patterns\nin different ways."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-325-325-understanding-randomness-exercises-for-statisticians-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-325-325-understanding-randomness-exercises-for-statisticians-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-325-325-understanding-randomness-exercises-for-statisticians-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c10-spread-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:10 (326-330): Spread investing - Advanced concepts Part 3 by Frank Taucher"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spread investing - Advanced concepts Part 3 by Frank Taucher
In the previous installment of this series, I discussed the two tools I use in my seasonal spread\ninvestment program to locate trades that are profitable, reliable and consistent. The objective of the\nprogram is to develop a diversified portfolio of many energized spread trades that can be used throughout\nthe year for investment purposes.
Now we will discuss some more advanced concepts. We will review money management concepts, the\npurpose and use of trading filters, \""legging\"" techniques and stop payment. Again, it will help if we use, as\nan example, an actual spread shown in Figure 1. This spread is comprised of long December oats/short\nDecember Chicago Board of Trade wheat (OZ/WZ). For the quarter-month analysis see Figure 2. The\nentry date is October 31 with an exit date of November 30. The trade has been analyzed over the past\nthirteen years, and has been 77% reliable. The worst loss and the worst drawndown of the trade have each\nbeen $1,450. The average drawdown is $367. The trade has made an average profit of $667 each year,\nand as of this writing, the current margin is $500. Inspection of each year's trading history, as described in\npart two of this article, suggests a stop of $700."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-326-330-spread-investing-advanced-concepts-part-3-by-frank-taucher-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-326-330-spread-investing-advanced-concepts-part-3-by-frank-taucher-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-326-330-spread-investing-advanced-concepts-part-3-by-frank-taucher-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c10-theloss-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:10 (331-333): The loss trap by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The loss trap by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Do you remember playing with a toy called the Chinese Finger Trap when you were a child? This toy\nis a woven straw cylinder with an opening at each end just large enough for a finger. Once you insert a\nfinger in each end, you are in the trap. You pull to get out and the trap closes around your fingers. The\nharder you pull to get out, the tighter the cylinder compresses around your fingers. The more you struggle\nwith the trap, the more ensnared you become. Only when you let go and relax does the trap let go of you.
Investment losses form a similar trap for most people—the Loss Trap. The more an investor resists\nlosses, the more ensnared the investor becomes in the Loss Trap—a psychological snare with numerous\nhidden factors that keep people locked into it. The more the investor struggles with losses, the worse the\nlosses become."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-331-333-the-loss-trap-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-331-333-the-loss-trap-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-331-333-the-loss-trap-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c10-howto-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:10 (334-339): How to use Maximum Entropy by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How to use Maximum Entropy by John F. Ehlers
MESA is an acronym for Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis, a forecasting method that filters the\n\""noise\"" from time series data and can uncover useful cycles. The advantages of the maximum entropy\nmethod over Fourier analysis is that high-resolution identification of cycles is possible using an\nextremely short database. This is important for short-term trading because cycles can fade or change\nbefore they are recognized by more conventional approaches. Maximum entropy also is not subject to the\nwindowing or end-effect distortions that Fourier transforms suffer because it extracts nearly all the\ncoherent cycle \""energy\"" in a set of data. The noise or useless information (\""entropy\"") that clutters up data\nand hides cycles is filtered out like so much chaff.
Cycles are related to random walk
The reason the short-term cycles appear, fade and alter is that they arise as solutions to a class of random\nwalk problems. Though it may seem so, random walk does not necessarily mean chaos. Mathematicians\ncall the problem class in which we are interested the \""drunkard's walk.\"" The problem is formulated by\nallowing the drunkard to step either to the right or to the left as he steps forward. To ensure randomness,\nthe drunkard must flip a fair coin to determine the direction of his next step. The differential equation that\nresults from this formulation is called the diffusion equation (Figure 1). The diffusion equation is useful\nfor describing physical phenomena like the plume of smoke leaving a smokestack."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-334-339-how-to-use-maximum-entropy-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-334-339-how-to-use-maximum-entropy-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-334-339-how-to-use-maximum-entropy-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c10-options-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:10 (340-344): Options-80A by Hans Hannula, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Options-80A by Hans Hannula, Ph.D.
Options-80\nBox 471\nConcord, MA 01742\n(617)369-1589 evenings\nPrice: $170 + $5 shipping\nEquipment: IBM PC, Wang PC, Tandy, TRS-80, TI PC and Apple II Plus families, Apple Macintosh\nand look-alikes, 48K memory, one disk drive
Some people view options as a marvelous way to leverage their trading. Others view options as a tool\nfor sophisticated investing. Whatever your view, analysis of the return you expect is very important to\nyour success. Fortunately, such analysis is easily handled today by a personal computer, given the right\nsoft-ware. One such software program is e Options-80A.
Options-80A is a useful options analysis program for options on stocks, indices or commodities. It is\ngraphically oriented and straightforward to use. It takes the approach that the purchase of an option is an\ninvestment and should be examined for its return on investment vs. future share price."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-340-344-options-80a-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-340-344-options-80a-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-10-340-344-options-80a-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-cycles-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (350-351): Cycles without tears by Hans Hannula, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cycles without tears by Hans Hannula, Ph.D.
No doubt you have seen the ad in The Wall Street Journal for the book Math Without Tears . Well, this\nis how to find cycles without math and, therefore, without tears. Even though I have done a lot of\ntechnical work on cycles (See Stocks & Commodities, \""In Search of the Cause of Cycles,\"" March 1987), I\nstill find the required mathematical skills are difficult for many people. Further, a lot of the mathematical\ntechniques used to find cycles are tricky in that they require a great deal of care to produce valid results.\nMost techniques also cannot tell you that a cycle bottomed today, due to delay effects inherent in the\ncalculations.
But there is a simple, easy way to find repeated event patterns in the market. If you can use grid paper, a\npencil and a straightedge, you can master this technique in five minutes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-350-351-cycles-without-tears-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-350-351-cycles-without-tears-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-350-351-cycles-without-tears-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-marketp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (352-355): Market Profile and market logic Part 1 by Thomas P. Drinka and Robert L. McNutt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Profile and market logic Part 1 by Thomas P. Drinka and Robert L. McNutt
Following more than four years of development by J. Peter Steidlmayer and the Chicago Board of\nTrade, the CBOT Market Profile and Liquidity Data Bank went online in 1985. With the availability of\nthe real-time representation of market activity, the general public now has access to market-generated\ninformation which previously had been available only to individuals who traded on exchange floors. As a\nresult, it is now possible to get the \""feel of a market\"" without being in the trading pit.
The purpose of this article is to briefly explain the manner in which CBOT Market Profile portrays\nmarket activity. Many individuals strive to learn trading by following market fundamentals and/or by\nconducting technical analysis where the general intent may be to trade by some system or formula. The\n\""market logic\"" approach, which is the foundation of the CBOT Market Profile and Liquidity Data Bank,\nentails understanding what is happening in the market, thinking about it logically and acting accordingly.\nBecause activity is not random, it can be read and interpreted by using the CBOT Market Profile."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-352-355-market-profile-and-market-logic-part-1-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-robert-l-mcnutt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-352-355-market-profile-and-market-logic-part-1-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-robert-l-mcnutt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-352-355-market-profile-and-market-logic-part-1-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-robert-l-mcnutt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-flaws-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (356-360): Flaws in the roulette wheel by Curtis McKallip, Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Flaws in the roulette wheel by Curtis McKallip, Jr.
Few games of chance are perfectly random. To the extent they are NOT, profit may be made by betting\non those states which occur with greater than random frequency and against those which occur with less\nthan random frequency. In the late 19th century, William Jaggers, a British engineer, hired six men to\nwrite down the winning numbers on a roulette wheel for a month of play. By identifying the numbers\nwhich came up with greater-than-random frequency and then betting on them, he earned a profit of 1.5\nmillion francs. The anomalous numbers were created by a roulette wheel which was poorly balanced.\nWhat happens if Jaggers' method is applied to commodity trading?
Jaggers' source data was a roulette wheel, ours is the marketplace. Ideal sources should be \""ergodic\"" and\n\""stationary.\"" Briefly, an ergodic source produces a time series which, given an interval of sufficient\nduration, will return to states which are closely similar to previous states. A stationary source produces a\ntime series whose statistical properties do not vary with the choice of time origin. All ergodic sources are\nstationary but not all stationary sources (for example, one that gets \""stuck\"" in a certain state) are ergodic."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-356-360-flaws-in-the-roulette-wheel-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-356-360-flaws-in-the-roulette-wheel-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-356-360-flaws-in-the-roulette-wheel-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-spread-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (361-363): Spread investing Part 4 by Frank Taucher"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spread investing Part 4 by Frank Taucher
What if you have no interest in trading spreads, but prefer to trade outright commodity contracts?\nCould you use the same principles developed in the spread investing program laid out in this series of\narticles and apply them to trades in individual futures contracts?\nThe answer to the above question is \""yes.\"" I use the same two tools in analyzing outright seasonals as I do\nanalyzing spread seasonals. These tools are the quarter-month seasonal trade analysis and seasonal\nhistory printout.
What we are specifically attempting to uncover is the cream-of-the-crop period of the year when it is\nusually quite profitable to trade a particular commodity and also quite reliable. In other words, we want\ntrades that have averaged a considerable profit over the years, and also have been able to experience\nthose profits year after year after year."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-361-363-spread-investing-part-4-by-frank-taucher-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-361-363-spread-investing-part-4-by-frank-taucher-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-361-363-spread-investing-part-4-by-frank-taucher-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-markets-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (364-368): Market strategy The Wyckoff method of trading: Part 15 by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market strategy The Wyckoff method of trading: Part 15 by Jack K. Hutson
The reasoning behind Richard D. Wyckoff''s classic method of chart analysis is simple and\nstraightforward: when demand for a stock exceeds supply, prices rise; when supply is greater than\ndemand, prices decline. The goal of this method is to make the most efficient use of investment capital by\nselecting only issues that will move soonest, fastest and farthest in any market and by timing trades to\ncapture those moves.
The Wyckoff Method accomplishes this by working in harmony with the market's buying and selling\nwaves, not against them. The search is for turning points that an individual feels comfortable\ntrading—anything from the final top of a bull market to the intraday peaks and valleys of buying and\nselling waves."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-364-368-market-strategy-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-part-15-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-364-368-market-strategy-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-part-15-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-364-368-market-strategy-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-part-15-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-ontips-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (369-370): On tips and tipsters by Vincent Cosentino"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On tips and tipsters by Vincent Cosentino
Charles Schwab, of discount brokerage fame, was quoted as saying: \""I don't give (stock) tips.\"" While\nMr. Schwab may not, it seems just about everybody else does. Turn on your TV, pick up the local\nnewspaper, glance through a business magazine and somebody is recommending some stock.\nProvocatively entitled columns such as \""Heard On The Street\"" and \""Inside Wall Street\"" bespeak the\nimminent disclosure of furtively gained confidences from Wall Street's most inaccessible files.
Journalistic puffs of steam? Or, are we really going to see fire and lava? Can these tipsters, with their ears\nsupposedly on the track, hear the train a-coming?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-369-370-on-tips-and-tipsters-by-vincent-cosentino-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-369-370-on-tips-and-tipsters-by-vincent-cosentino-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-369-370-on-tips-and-tipsters-by-vincent-cosentino-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-danger-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (371-373): The danger in profits by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The danger in profits by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Have you ever wondered why you can paper trade successfully, but fail miserably when real money is\nat stake? The reason is simple. The trader who concentrates on profits will have difficulty winning, as\nwill the investor who concentrates on losses.
Frank, for example, wants to make a killing in a speculative stock. He pays $5,000 for the stock. It\nimmediately goes to $5,900, so he sells it. His profit of about $800 after commissions is a nice return for\na few days work. A week later the stock is worth $6,500 and within six weeks it doubles. Frank can\nneither congratulate himself on his nice profit nor get back into the stock. He prefers to berate himself for\ngetting out so soon. He also is afraid to get back into the market because it is now \""too high.\"" Does this\nscenario seem familiar?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-371-373-the-danger-in-profits-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-371-373-the-danger-in-profits-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-371-373-the-danger-in-profits-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-price-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (374-376): Price/Volume Cross-Correlations in the DJIA by Frank Tarkany"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price/Volume Cross-Correlations in the DJIA by Frank Tarkany
This article examines the use of a Price Percent Filter (PPF) on daily Dow Jones Industrial Average\n(DJIA) closing prices from January 2, 1897 to January 2, 1987. Price changes from the filter are\ncross-correlated with their corresponding New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) total volume changes. The\ncorrelation coefficient and chi-square statistics results from June 13, 1949 to January 2, 1987 indicate\ngood price/volume cross-correlations.
Analysis
A Price Percent Filter selects dates when the percentageof price change from a previous peak or low\nexceeds a threshold value. In this study a computer was used to find when a price change equals or\nexceeds the PPF in the opposite direction of the preceding PPF change. The date, DJIA price, and NYSE\ntotal volume were tabulated onto a computer file for subsequent analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-374-376-price-volume-cross-correlations-in-the-djia-by-frank-tarkany-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-374-376-price-volume-cross-correlations-in-the-djia-by-frank-tarkany-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-374-376-price-volume-cross-correlations-in-the-djia-by-frank-tarkany-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-volatil-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (377-379): Volatility Breakout System Version 2 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volatility Breakout System Version 2 by John Sweeney
Technical Trading Strategies, Inc.\n4877 S. Everett St.\nLittleton, CO, 80123\n(800)648-2232
Service: Disclosed trading system for Treasury bonds, notes and bills; Eurodollars, municipal bonds,\nDeutschemarks, Yen, Swiss Franc, British Pound, S&P 500, Value Line, NYFE index and Maxi\nIndex. Other contracts can be entered.
Price: $3,000.00
Equipment: IBM PC/XT/AT or 100% compatible, 384K RAM, DOS 2.0 or higher, hard disk and one\nfloppy or two floppies. Copy protected.
Ratings:\nEase of Use: A\nCustomer Service: A\nDocumentation: A\nReliability: A\nError Handling: A*\nProfitability: A\nMinimizing Losses: A+
It turns out it is possible to devise a trading strategy which effectively minimizes drawdowns while\nsteadily building your accounts balance. Doug Bry and Phil Spertus have put together such a package in It turns out it is possible to devise a trading strategy which effectively minimizes drawdowns while\nsteadily building your accounts balance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-377-379-volatility-breakout-system-version-2-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-377-379-volatility-breakout-system-version-2-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-377-379-volatility-breakout-system-version-2-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c11-macro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:11 (380-383): Macro*World Investor by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Macro*World Investor by John Sweeney
Black River Software\n4680 Brownsboro Road, Building C\nWinston-Salem, NC, 27106\n(919) 721-0928
Product: Integrated business forecasting and investing package
Price: $899.95 for program, database and 3 months update service, plus $50 per month for program\nand database maintenance service. Can combine program, database and first 15 months service for\n$1299.95
Equipment: IBM XT or AT with 512K, DOS 2.0 or higher, one floppy and one hard disk, color\nmonitor with CGA or EGA, dot matrix or laser printer.
Ratings:\nEase of Use: A\nError Handling: A\nCustomer Service:A\nDocumentation: B\nReliability: Unknown\nProfitability: Unknown\nTrading Track Record: None. However, users can run a simulation of forecasting and transaction\nresults.
Drawdown: Unknown
Econometrics—i.e., the thrill of regression analysis—has generally been beyond the reach of individual\ninvestors, or even small institutions. No more. Macro*World Investor brings these techniques to bear in\na simple, but robust, analytical model at a very low price.
This package analyzes about 200 time series of economic data and security prices for interrelationships\nbefore forecasting what each will do during the next year. After that, it will take the portfolio you have\nspecified and calculate the expected rates of return for the portfolio's securities. To each return is assigned a probability that the return will exceed the risk-free (or T-Bill) rate. If this probability exceeds\nyour hurdle, the security is accepted for your portfolio. That done, historical betas (vs. the S&P 500) for\naccepted securities are computed and an optimal portfolio with the highest return for your target beta is\nassembled for your use."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-380-383-macro-world-investor-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-380-383-macro-world-investor-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-11-380-383-macro-world-investor-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c02-insearc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:2 (50-54): In search of the perfect system: Interview Jack Schwager"",""caption-linebreaks"":""In search of the perfect system: Interview Jack Schwager
Jack Schwager, self-confessed skeptic and diligent debunker of \""new and improved\"" commodity trading\nsystems, is director of both research and managed trading for PaineWebber and is a not-too-recent\nconvert to the ways of technical analysis.
Fifteen years ago, as an economics major fresh out of graduate school, Schwager began his career as a\nresearch analyst at Reynolds Securities with no previous experience with commodities. \""But I wasn't into\nthe job for more than a week,\"" he says, \""when I realized this was something interesting and something I'd\nlike to make a career out of.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-50-54-in-search-of-the-perfect-system-interview-jack-schwager-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-50-54-in-search-of-the-perfect-system-interview-jack-schwager-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-50-54-in-search-of-the-perfect-system-interview-jack-schwager-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c02-arether-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:2 (56-58): Are there patterns in financial ratios? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are there patterns in financial ratios? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Technical analysts strive to find patterns in the past history of the prices of stocks and commodities\n(using charts, moving averages, etc.) that will allow them to predict future prices or price movements.\nThe major argument against this idea is the assumption that prices are determined by a random and\nindependent process. I have developed a number of statistical techniques that will allow you to determine\nif the process you are interested in is random (Stocks & Commodities, March 1986) and/or independent\n(October 1985, April 1986) using real data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-56-58-are-there-patterns-in-financial-ratios-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-56-58-are-there-patterns-in-financial-ratios-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-56-58-are-there-patterns-in-financial-ratios-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c02-profit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:2 (59-61): Profitability of selected technical indicators: U.S. T-Bond futures by Steven L. Kille and Thomas P. Drinka"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Profitability of selected technical indicators: U.S. T-Bond futures by Steven L. Kille and Thomas P. Drinka
In the December 1985 issue of this magazine, we reported the results of applying moving averages,\nmomentum, %R, and Relative Strength (RSI) to five December corn futures contracts. We also reviewed\nthe formulas and trading techniques for these popular indicators. For each, we presented the net trading\nprofit or loss generated by the five most profitable parameter sets from exclusively long positions,\nexclusively short positions, and alternating long and short positions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-59-61-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-u-s-t-bond-futures-by-steven-l-kille-and-thomas-p-drinka-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-59-61-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-u-s-t-bond-futures-by-steven-l-kille-and-thomas-p-drinka-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-59-61-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-u-s-t-bond-futures-by-steven-l-kille-and-thomas-p-drinka-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c02-general-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:2 (62-63): Generalship for consistent profits by Vincent Cosentino"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Generalship for consistent profits by Vincent Cosentino.
Rodney Dangerfield would have loved it. After the July 7, 1986 record drop of 61.87 points in the\nDow Jones Industrial Average, articles appeared crediting technicians with everything from making the\nright call to causing the slide. Headlines bellowed, \""Market gurus jolt the Dow,\"" and \""Stock market's\ntechnical analysts get new respect after price drop. \""Hey Rodney! Respect!
Of course, not all observers were complimentary. One fundamentalist skeptic flung his gauntlet to the\nmarble with, \""I defy you to show me one technician who has made money consistently.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-62-63-generalship-for-consistent-profits-by-vincent-cosentino-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-62-63-generalship-for-consistent-profits-by-vincent-cosentino-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-62-63-generalship-for-consistent-profits-by-vincent-cosentino-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c02-trend-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:2 (64-66): Trend of the trend by Gregory L. Morris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trend of the trend by Gregory L. Morris
Most indicators of trend are taken for granted even though many times they are used successfully by\nstock and commodity traders. It has been my experience that blindly following canned indicators can lead\nyou into a false sense of security, especially if you begin using the indicator when it is correctly calling\nthe market. If you begin using a trend-following indicator during its inevitable whipsaw period, you will\nlose faith and look for another indicator. Therefore, if you develop an indicator using some basic logic\nand reason which is related to known market action, you can have a little more faith in a particular\nindicator. There is also the argument of using a basket of indicators and/or using them in a tree structured\napproach. No doubt that is a safer approach, but it is not the purpose of this article.
It is accepted that the successful trader must identify and follow the trend of the market to be a consistent\nwinner. There are, of course, many indicators available to help identify the termination of a trend and\nprepare you to reverse your positions. Adding even more confusion to the arena, you have to determine\nwhich type of trend is being identified: short, medium, or long. Again, this is not the purpose here."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-64-66-trend-of-the-trend-by-gregory-l-morris-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-64-66-trend-of-the-trend-by-gregory-l-morris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-64-66-trend-of-the-trend-by-gregory-l-morris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c02-apply-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:2 (67-71): Applying statistical pattern recognition to commodity trading systems by Scott Brill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Applying statistical pattern recognition to commodity trading systems by Scott Brill
Statistical pattern recognition (SPR) is a subfield of artificial intelligence concerned with automatic\nrecognition of meaningful regularities in noisy or complex environments. Since the early 1960s, a large\nbody of these techniques have been developed to solve problems ranging from machine vision and\nmachine recognition of human speech to bankruptcy prediction. In this article, we will introduce you to\nsome basic SPR tools which can be used to create automatic trading systems, and give two\ndemonstrations of how these may be applied to a weekly gold trading scenario using a personal computer."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-67-71-applying-statistical-pattern-recognition-to-commodity-trading-systems-by-scott-brill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-67-71-applying-statistical-pattern-recognition-to-commodity-trading-systems-by-scott-brill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-67-71-applying-statistical-pattern-recognition-to-commodity-trading-systems-by-scott-brill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c02-ganntrd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:2 (72-76): Ganntrader I by Hans Hannula, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Ganntrader I by Hans Hannula, Ph.D.
There is little dispute that W.D. Gann was one of the world's greatest traders. In one documented case\nhe made 286 trades, 264 of them profitable, in a 25-day period. He doubled his capital 10 times! This\nkind of incredible result carne from his use of dozens of highly refined and sophisticated methods.
W.D. Gann was also clearly the original workaholic. In 50 years of active trading, Gann developed many\nmethods, each based upon exhaustive study and the preparation and analysis of hundreds of charts. His\nwork is so extensive and so exhaustive that even the most aggressive and persistent students of today\nhave probably only begun to scratch the surface."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-72-76-ganntrader-i-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-72-76-ganntrader-i-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-72-76-ganntrader-i-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c02-c3kansy-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:2 (77-79): C3KANSYS by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""C3KANSYS by John Sweeney
(Club 3000 Analysis)\nJim Welsh\n6404 Buckingham Drive\nBurnaby, BC\nCanada V5E 3Y6\n(604) 521-3275
Computer: MS-DOS computers using GWBASIC, 2 drives (one can be a hard disk) and printers with\nEpson features. Screen graphics adaptor if your machine needs one (such as an IBM)
Price: US $25
From the fertile mind of Club 3000 guru Bo Thunman and the programming talents of Jim Welsh\n(B.Sc.F., M.Sc., Ph.D.) comes a nifty little program to measure your trading account's equity performance\nusing graphics displays and statistics. Since C3KANSYS is well within Stocks & Commodities' budget at\n$25 and is the result of much discussion amongst Club 3000 members, we decided to give it a look.
Looking at equity performance is the harshest measure of your all-around performance because it is the\n\""no-excuses\"" approach. Forget about blaming the system, your broker, your spouse/dog, your philosophy,\nor your diseases. This approach just looks at the results where it counts: the bottom line on your\nstatements."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-77-79-c3kansys-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-77-79-c3kansys-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-2-77-79-c3kansys-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c03-acomple-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:3 (102-104): A complete computer trading program (part 1) by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A complete computer trading program (part 1) by John F. Ehlers
This is the first of four articles that give a description and computer listing, enabling you to perform\ntechnical analysis with your computer. In the second article I will cover the basics of reading data from a\nstandard format and plotting price history on a graph. The third article will allow you to selectively plot\nmoving averages and J. Welles Wilder's Parabolic System over the price history. The fourth and\nconcluding article will give the computer listings to calculate Commodity Channel Index (CCI),\nDirectional Trend Indicator (DTI), or Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the price history so that they\ncan be compared."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-102-104-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-1-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-102-104-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-1-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-102-104-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-1-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c03-market-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:3 (105-107): Market Manager PLUS by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Manager PLUS by John Sweeney
Dow Jones News/Retrieval\nP.O. Box 300\nPrinceton, NJ 08540\n(609) 452-2000
Price: $299 IBM, $249 Apple II or Macintosh
Databases: Dow Jones
This product is for the stock, bond or option activist who needs a device to keep track of all his\nactivity. It will price your portfolio (or 256 of your portfolios) automatically and produce reports on your\nholdings, gains/losses, transactions, price alerts and upcoming important dates (i.e.: going long-term on a\ncapital gain [fond memory!] and options expiration)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-105-107-market-manager-plus-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-105-107-market-manager-plus-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-105-107-market-manager-plus-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c03-personl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:3 (108-110): Personal Options Advisor by Hans Hannula"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Personal Options Advisor by Hans Hannula
MarketSoft\n432 South Dearborn St., Suite 609\nChicago, IL 60603\n(312) 648-0400
Personal Options Advisor, Release 2.0\nHardware Requirements: IBM PC,XT, AT or compatible, 256K memory, DOS 2.1 or later, Color\nGraphics or Hercules monochrome graphics card recommended.
Price: $248 + $2 shipping.
\nOptions trading has become one of the favorite ways for smaller traders to participate in the market.\nPotential profits are large. Doubles or triples are not uncommon. The risk is limited to the money you put\nup to play the game.
But as most of us have found, the game can be pretty rough. One thing that makes it so rough, is that the\nfair value of an option is a complex thing, containing both a part that is based on the option strike price\nand the underlying stock, index, or commodity price, and a second part called the premium, which is a\ncharge for how much time is left in the option."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-108-110-personal-options-advisor-by-hans-hannula-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-108-110-personal-options-advisor-by-hans-hannula-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-108-110-personal-options-advisor-by-hans-hannula-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c03-assess-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:3 (112-112): Assessing Risk On Wall Street by Robert W. Hull"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Book Review: Thomas A. Rorro's Assessing Risk on Wall Street. By Robert W. Hull
Thomas A. Rorro\nSobaro Publishing Company, 1984\nPrice: $17.95 (202 pages)
Thomas A. Rorro's book, Assessing Risk on Wall Street , is indeed a bridge between the investment\ncommunities' personalized approach to the market on the one hand, and the theory of investments as\npresented in the academic literature on the other. He combines his own particularly well-thought-out\napproach to risk and return, using methodology found in the academic literature, to finally arrive at a\npractical method of assessing the financial risk associated with an investment."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-112-112-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-by-robert-w-hull-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-112-112-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-by-robert-w-hull-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-112-112-assessing-risk-on-wall-street-by-robert-w-hull-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c03-djia-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:3 (85-85): DJIA/NYSE Auto/Cross-Correlations by Frank Tarkany"",""caption-linebreaks"":""DJIA/NYSE Auto/Cross-Correlations by Frank Tarkany
This article investigates auto/cross-correlations for the weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)\nprice close and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) total volume from January 9, 1897 to December\n27, 1985. Using the correlation coefficient and chi-square statistic, I discovered an almost random\nrelationship between price and volume. This confirms my previous research (Technical Analysis of\nStocks & Commodities, October/November 1986)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-85-85-djia-nyse-auto-cross-correlations-by-frank-tarkany-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-85-85-djia-nyse-auto-cross-correlations-by-frank-tarkany-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-85-85-djia-nyse-auto-cross-correlations-by-frank-tarkany-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c03-profit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:3 (86-88): Profitability of selected technical indicators: Silver by Thomas P. Drinka and Steven L. Kille"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Profitability of selected technical indicators: Silver by Thomas P. Drinka and Steven L. Kille
In previous issues of this magazine, we reported the results of applying moving averages, momentum,\n%R, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) to Chicago Board of Trade corn and long-term U.S. Treasury\nbond futures. The formulas and use of these popular technical indicators were reviewed.
In this issue, we report similar information for Commodity Exchange of New York (COMEX) silver.\nTrading was simulated on the 1981-1985 March, May, July, September, and December contracts. The\nsimulations were conducted on the nearby contract only, with rollover occurring on the first trading day\nof the expiration month we present trading results for the period of December 2, 1980, through December\n1, 1985. Trades were made at the open, and a $100 commission was charged per turn."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-86-88-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-silver-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-86-88-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-silver-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-86-88-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-silver-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c03-changin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:3 (89-92): Changing tides in the investment software market by Thomas A. Rorro"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Changing tides in the investment software market by Thomas A. Rorro
Remarkably, the investment software industry is on the threshold of a major transition. In the near\nfuture, it will no longer be economical to buy investment software. Instead you will be dialing up and\nrenting the capability from one of the national timesharing services. Even today, we see the genesis of\nthese changes. They are beginning slowly at first but the economics are such that the tide must sweep the\nmarketplace.
To explore the issues which surround the investment software industry, let us consider the techniques\ndescribed in the three previous articles entitled \""Assessing Risk on Wall Street\"" (Stocks & Commodities,\nOct., Nov., Dec. 1986). These articles present the Random Walk theory of investment analysis in a form\nwhich is suitable for computer implementation. Given these articles, let us assume that the reader has\ndeveloped a desire to use this analysis technique or a similar capability."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-89-92-changing-tides-in-the-investment-software-market-by-thomas-a-rorro-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-89-92-changing-tides-in-the-investment-software-market-by-thomas-a-rorro-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-89-92-changing-tides-in-the-investment-software-market-by-thomas-a-rorro-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c03-insearc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:3 (93-98): In search of the cause of cycles by Hans Hannula, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""In search of the cause of cycles by Hans Hannula, Ph.D.
People have, for centuries, noticed cycles in many things, including the stock market. My own interest\nin cycles and their application to the market began in the early 1970s, when I read Dewey and Mandino's\nCycles, The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events and Hurst's The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction\nTiming. Since then, I have studied cycles and used them regularly in my trading. My greatest successes\nhave been in using them to call the 1982 and 1984 market bottoms. While cycles have been a practical\ntool for me, I have always been bothered by a lack of understanding of why they occur.
Recently, I uncovered significant evidence of the cause of these \""mysterious forces.\"" Now, many people,\nsuch as Peter Eliades, an investment advisor from Los Angeles, have suspected the answer. In response to\na Newsweek question about what causes cycles, he said, \""I'm not real sure, and it sounds kind of freaky,\nbut if pushed to the wall I'd have to say it has to do with astronomical configurations that affect behavior\non a mass basis.\"" (See also Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, December 1986.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-93-98-in-search-of-the-cause-of-cycles-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-93-98-in-search-of-the-cause-of-cycles-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-93-98-in-search-of-the-cause-of-cycles-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c03-wyckoff-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:3 (99-101): Wyckoff in action (part 2) by David Weis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff in action (part 2) by David Weis
In Part 1 of this article (S&C, June 1986), we recognized at point #12 (Figure 1) that large operators\nwere accumulating bonds prior to an upswing. The conservative point-and-figure count AB (Figure 2)\nindicated potential for a move to 63-28. Long positions were recommended for the opening on April 8\nwith protective sell stops placed beneath the low at #10. The following discussion dissects the\nvolume/price behavior during the subsequent mark-up and distribution phase that evolved over a 13-day\nperiod.
April 8. June bonds open at 61-11 before moving to a low of 61-09. Based on an entry price of 61-11, we\nare risking 7/32nds for a gain of at least 2 1/2 points.\nAfter opening lower, prices steadily move higher\nthroughout the session. It is noteworthy to mention here that tick volume has a U-shaped pattern. Tick\nvolume is heavy in the opening 45 minutes and tapers off toward mid-day. From this lull in activity,\ntrading increases until the final rush of volume in the closing hour."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-99-101-wyckoff-in-action-part-2-by-david-weis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-99-101-wyckoff-in-action-part-2-by-david-weis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-3-99-101-wyckoff-in-action-part-2-by-david-weis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-vanktha-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (116-119): Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.: Trader's Psychologist by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.: Trader's Psychologist by John Sweeney
In purely technical terms, Van K. Tharp is a psychological researcher and counselor specializing in\nneurolinguistic programming. In the lay language of his clients, he's the specialist who helps them\nunearth and change their unprofitable states of mind.
\""Why I got into psychology, I have no idea. It just interested me,\"" says Dr. Tharp, recalling the first\ndecisions that led him to a bachelor's degree in psychology from Beloit College and a doctorate in\nbiological psychology from the University of Oklahoma. He found, however, that his keen interest in\ndiscovery was stifled in traditional psychological research that \""requires you to work for the government,\nat least indirectly. I wanted to do something fairly independent which was my own.\""
A workshop on trading psychology and the release of Jake Bernstein's book, The Investor's Quotient,\nstimulated his researcher's mind. \""Bernstein's book gave me the idea of developing a questionnaire, but a\nmuch more thorough and elaborate instrument than the 25 questions he presented in his book,\"" says Dr.\nTharp. After approximately six years of research and testing, his results are not only as copyrighted\npsychological test, but a deep understanding of the mental aspects of trading and a private practice\ndevoted to helping individuals become more profitable traders and investors."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-116-119-van-k-tharp-ph-d-trader-s-psychologist-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-116-119-van-k-tharp-ph-d-trader-s-psychologist-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-116-119-van-k-tharp-ph-d-trader-s-psychologist-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-anafter-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (121-125): An after-Christmas story by Ron Jaenisch"",""caption-linebreaks"":""An after-Christmas story by Ron Jaenisch
Santa completed his rounds at Christmas and went on a one-month vacation in Mexico. When he got\nback to the North Pole he realized that it was once again time to raise funds for the Christmas toys. Since\nit was only February he knew he had lots of time.
\""I've got more than $40,000 left over from last Christmas and I'll be needing $4 million this year,\"" he said\nto Mrs. Claus.
She answered, \""Dear, this year instead of doing fund-raisers what about raising it by trading the futures\nmarket?\""
\""You may have a point there,\"" he said. \""After all, these bones are getting weary and it is effective.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-121-125-an-after-christmas-story-by-ron-jaenisch-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-121-125-an-after-christmas-story-by-ron-jaenisch-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-121-125-an-after-christmas-story-by-ron-jaenisch-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-floortk-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (126-126): Floor Talk by William Eng"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Floor Talk by William Eng
I started my trading career at the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange more years ago than I care to\nremember, or at this time, more years than I can remember. I learned a lot of lessons while trading there.\nOne lesson I learned, and one which I am extremely fond of repeating to new traders, is the one\nconcerning secrecy. No one can be told about your trading position, not even your wife. And if you are a\nwife, no one can know, not even the kids!
There was a legendary trader at the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange by the name of Harold Goodman.\nMost people don't know who this trader was and most would not care to know. However, if I said to you\nthat this man bailed out certain traders at the MidAmerica who had bad positions on after the primary\nmarkets closed, your curiosity would be somewhat piqued. The people he bailed out were the like of\nRichard Dennis and Tommy Willis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-126-126-floor-talk-by-william-eng-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-126-126-floor-talk-by-william-eng-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-126-126-floor-talk-by-william-eng-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-weekly-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (127): Weekly price cycles: evidence of auto-correlation by Frank Tarkany"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Weekly price cycles: evidence of auto-correlation by Frank Tarkany
This article is a continuation of my article last month which examined Dow Jones Industrial Average\nweekly closing price data for price auto-correlation and cross-correlation with total weekly\nNYSE volume. This work found cycles which compare favorably with previous cycle studies. In\nyour trading, you may reasonably use these cycles with more confidence than is typical. Also, there\nmay exist a 22-week fundamental price cycle, with harmonics, in the DJIA weekly close data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-127-weekly-price-cycles-evidence-of-auto-correlation-by-frank-tarkany-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-127-weekly-price-cycles-evidence-of-auto-correlation-by-frank-tarkany-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-127-weekly-price-cycles-evidence-of-auto-correlation-by-frank-tarkany-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-profit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (128-131): Profitability of selected technical indicators by Steven L. Kille and Thomas P. Drinka, Ph.D"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Profitability of selected technical indicators by Steven L. Kille and Thomas P. Drinka, Ph.D
In previous issues of this magazine, we have reported the results of applying moving averages,\nmomentum, Williams' %R, and Wilder's Relative Strength Index to Chicago Board of Trade corn and\nlong-term U.S. Treasury bond futures, as well as to silver on the Commodity Exchange of New York\n(COMEX). In this issue, we report similar information for Eurodollar futures traded at the International\nMonetary Market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In addition, we will report results of applying\nWilder's Directional Movement Index (DMI). (See S&C, November and December 1985 for a discussion\nof the formulas and uses of these indicators and trading system.)
In this research, we simulated trading of the 1983-1985 March, June, September, and December\nEurodollar-contracts. The simulations were conducted on the nearby contract only, with roll-over\noccurring on the first trading day of the expiration month. We present trading results for the period of\nDec. 2, 1982 through Dec. 1, 1985. Trades were made at the open, and a $100 commission was charged\nper turn."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-128-131-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-by-steven-l-kille-and-thomas-p-drinka-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-128-131-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-by-steven-l-kille-and-thomas-p-drinka-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-128-131-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-by-steven-l-kille-and-thomas-p-drinka-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-calcula-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (132-135): Calculating retracements by Hal Swanson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Calculating retracements by Hal Swanson
The following forecasting method is an approach to charting price retracement in stocks, commodities,\nindices or any free market. It is a study of momentum, an evolution somewhere between Gann and Elliott\nWave, that allows traders to project an ideal price correction in both price and time.
In my approach, a price move of any proportion will attempt to retrace itself by 50% to 61.8% of the\ninitial price move. This retracement first occurs at twice the original momentum, or even greater, and\nthen completes the price correction with the same momentum as the initial price move. There are six\nimportant points, or areas, in this correction pattern where the price retracement could be halted or a\nsecondary reaction could occur. (See the related article on this topic.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-132-135-calculating-retracements-by-hal-swanson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-132-135-calculating-retracements-by-hal-swanson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-132-135-calculating-retracements-by-hal-swanson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-select-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (136-139): Selecting the best individual stocks Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 9 by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Selecting the best individual stocks Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 9 by Jack K. Hutson
Our discussion of Wyckoff's analytical methods have so far concentrated on deductive reasoning to\nreach investment or trading conclusions. We first determined the position and trend of the general\nmarket, then the positions and trend of group averages, and finally selected individual stocks based on\ntheir ability to move in harmony with those larger trends.
The opposite approach-inductive reasoning-offers the experienced Wyckoff analyst a valuable way to\ndouble check those conclusions. I emphasize experienced analyst because determining the positions of\nindividual stocks first and then proceeding to the market and groups requires more skill and judgment, as\nwell as more analysis time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-136-139-selecting-the-best-individual-stocks-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-9-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-136-139-selecting-the-best-individual-stocks-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-9-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-136-139-selecting-the-best-individual-stocks-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-9-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-hardcrd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (140-141): Hardcard offspring by Howard Falk"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Hardcard offspring by Howard Falk
About a year and a half ago the Hardcard appeared on the personal computer marketplace and quickly\nbecame a very popular item. Hardcard is a 10 million byte hard disk that plugs into one of the expansion\nslots (normally used to hold adapters for printers and displays) at the back of the IBM Personal\nComputer. This product sold so well that it stimulated development of many similar disks-on-a-card. In\nfact, there are now so many different card-mounted units available that they constitute a new category of\nhard disks for personal computers.
From the start, the appeal of these units has been that they are, compared to standard hard disks, simple to\ninstall. In addition, they appeal to users who hate the idea of putting a floppy disk drive on the shelf after\nremoving it to make room for a hard disk. With a disk-on-a-card, there is no need to remove any floppy\ndrive since this disk, with its controller, fits neatly inside the IBM system unit."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-140-141-hardcard-offspring-by-howard-falk-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-140-141-hardcard-offspring-by-howard-falk-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-140-141-hardcard-offspring-by-howard-falk-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-ahelpin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (142-143): A helping hand from the Arms Index by James Alphier and Bill Kuhn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A helping hand from the Arms Index by James Alphier and Bill Kuhn
It was just about 20 years ago when Richard W. Arms, Jr. published in the pages of Barron's his new\nindex number which combined upside and downside volume with the traditionally watched statistics on\nthe number of advancing and declining issues. Arms' method of combining the \""raw head count\"" of the\nadvances and declines with the total number of shares these stocks were trading was simple."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-142-143-a-helping-hand-from-the-arms-index-by-james-alphier-and-bill-kuhn-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-142-143-a-helping-hand-from-the-arms-index-by-james-alphier-and-bill-kuhn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-142-143-a-helping-hand-from-the-arms-index-by-james-alphier-and-bill-kuhn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-acomple-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (144-147): A complete computer trading program part 2 by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A complete computer trading program part 2 by John F. Ehlers
This program works with the standard CompuTrac or CSI (Commodity Systems, Inc.) disk data\nreading format (Table 1). The fundamental idea of this program is to take a 40-character string record for\neach day's data and break it down into eight columns. You can consider each day's entry as a column. The\nend result is a matrix that measures eight rows high by \""N\"" columns long. The first row is the day of the\nweek and date as NYYMMDD for the year, month, and day. Thereafter, the rows are: Open, High, Low,\nClose, Open Interest, Volume, and Study. This program uses only the date, high, low, and close."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-144-147-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-2-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-144-147-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-2-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-144-147-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-2-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c04-usingma-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:4 (148-150): Using Maximum Adverse Excursions for stops by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Maximum Adverse Excursions for stops by John Sweeney
So often the key to success is the reverse of what we initially perceive. Young basketball players are\nfascinated with the shot, never suspecting the game is won with fast feet. Traders focus on winning\nsignals when they should worry about when to admit they were wrong.
Here it is: It's more important to know when your trade is bad than it is to know how to get into it. Said\ntheoretically, \""minimize your maximum loss\"" to win in the long run.
In Stocks & Commodities October 1985 issue, I described how to determine stop placement quantitatively\nSubsequently, a reader asked for a concrete example, so here I want to show how to use the information\non T-bonds."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-148-150-using-maximum-adverse-excursions-for-stops-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-148-150-using-maximum-adverse-excursions-for-stops-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-4-148-150-using-maximum-adverse-excursions-for-stops-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-tools-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (154-156): Tools for thinking traders: MicroVest's Steven Kille"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tools for thinking traders: MicroVest's Steven Kille
Successful software development was nowhere in Steven Kille's life plan when he headed off to\nWestern Illinois University for a master's degree in economics. Computer programming, in fact, wasn't\neven on the agenda. But when his mother presented him with a Franklin computer, the now 28-year-old\nfounder of MicroVest discovered an unrivaled addiction in programming.
He wrote his first technical trading program as an teaching assistant to Dr. Thomas Drinka, associate\nprofessor at Western's Department of Agriculture. By graduation, Kille had developed two saleable\nprograms and opened MicroVest's office. Today, his duo of charting and research programs—High Tech\nand Back Trak—have received consistently high marks from traders and reviewers alike."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-154-156-tools-for-thinking-traders-microvest-s-steven-kille-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-154-156-tools-for-thinking-traders-microvest-s-steven-kille-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-154-156-tools-for-thinking-traders-microvest-s-steven-kille-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-refinin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (158-160): Refining chart analysis Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 10 by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Refining chart analysis Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 10 by Jack K. Hutson
At this point in our examination of Richard D. Wyckoff's methodology for stock market analysis, we\nhave explored all of the major tenets of this classic technique—from basic charting to the more esoteric\nconsideration of trendlines, position sheets and chart interaction.
Now, we are ready to pursue the technical refinements which distinguish slapdash amateurs from\nproficient and effective traders and investors. If this is your beginning foray into technical analysis, you\nmay be feeling a bit overwhelmed by all that we've introduced about the Wyckoff Method. At this point,\ntoo, experienced technical traders may have the natural reaction to pick and choose pieces of Wyckoff's\ndesign and try to meld them with other, more familiar systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-158-160-refining-chart-analysis-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-10-by-jack-k-hutson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-158-160-refining-chart-analysis-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-10-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-158-160-refining-chart-analysis-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-10-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-rsiprof-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (162-164): RSI profitability with money management by Thomas P. Drinka and Steven L. Kille"",""caption-linebreaks"":""RSI profitability with money management by Thomas P. Drinka and Steven L. Kille
In the April 1987 issue of this magazine, we reported the results of applying moving averages,\nmomentum, Williams' %R, Wilder's Relative Strength Index, and Wilder's Directional Movement Index\nto Eurodollar futures traded at the International Monetary Market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In\nthe April article and this one, we report simulated trading of the 1983-1985 March, June, September and\nDecember contracts for the period of Dec. 2, 1982, through Dec. 1, 1985. Simulations were conducted on\nthe nearby contract only, with roll-over occurring on the first trading day of the expiration month. Trades\nwere made at the open, and a $100 commission was charged per turn."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-162-164-rsi-profitability-with-money-management-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-162-164-rsi-profitability-with-money-management-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-162-164-rsi-profitability-with-money-management-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-howto-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (165-170): How to spot takeover candidates by Norman S. Wei"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How to spot takeover candidates by Norman S. Wei
The shares of Celanese Corp. were trading at 218-1/2 at the close of Oct. 31. They shot up to a high of\n247-1/2 on Nov. 3 and closed at 242-1/2—an increase of $24 per share!
Integrated Software's stock jumped from 9 to 12- 1/4 over-night on Nov. 3. In late February 1986,\nWestern Airlines' stock jumped from 8-7/8 to 12-1/4 within a week.
These were all takeover or merger candidates. Celanese agreed to merge with American Hoechst Corp.\nfor $245 per share. Computer Associates International Inc. acquired Integrated Software for 12-3/8 a\nshare in cash. Western Airlines was taken over by United Airlines.
To the casual observer of stock prices, the explosive nature of these stocks appears to be totally\nunexpected. For the six months preceding the dynamic jump in price, Integrated Software's prices\nactually declined from 13 to a low of just under 8. Celanese traded between 204 and 215 for the month\npreceding the takeover announcement. Western Airlines' stock prices fell for four months prior to its\nbeing taken over."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-165-170-how-to-spot-takeover-candidates-by-norman-s-wei-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-165-170-how-to-spot-takeover-candidates-by-norman-s-wei-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-165-170-how-to-spot-takeover-candidates-by-norman-s-wei-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-cycles-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (171-172): Cycles and chart patterns by Anthony F. Herbst"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cycles and chart patterns by Anthony F. Herbst
Many who analyze price charts of stocks or commodities recognize that cycles influence the patterns\nthey observe. But few carry this insight through the logical steps that could mean better trade timing. The\nsteps that I am referring to are the isolation, synthesis, (re)combination, and projection of cycles.
The steps involved in the isolation and validation of cycles in data are beyond the scope of this article.\nIndeed, many articles in Stocks & Commodities have dealt with the topic and others will continue to do\nso. There is also the Foundation for the Study of Cycles which, since its founding in 1941, has been\ncommitted to the quest for better understanding of all cyclical phenomena. The Foundation is today the\nworld's leading center for cyclic research and education."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-171-172-cycles-and-chart-patterns-by-anthony-f-herbst-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-171-172-cycles-and-chart-patterns-by-anthony-f-herbst-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-171-172-cycles-and-chart-patterns-by-anthony-f-herbst-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-thebig-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (173-173): The Big Hitters by Dr. Alexander Elder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Big Hitters by Dr. Alexander Elder
Author: Kevin Koy
Publisher: Intermarket Publishing\n401 S. La Salle\nChicago, IL 60605
Price: $26.95
\""The rich are different from you and me,\"" wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald during the Roaring Twenties. At that\ntime, Bernard Baruch was swinging deals on the New York exchange, R.N. Elliott was still keeping\nrailroad accounts in Chile and most of today's big traders had not yet been born. The Great Gatsby's\nauthor shared in the common misconception that the rich are a breed apart and have a secret trick for\nmaking money."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-173-173-the-big-hitters-by-dr-alexander-elder-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-173-173-the-big-hitters-by-dr-alexander-elder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-173-173-the-big-hitters-by-dr-alexander-elder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-technic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (174-174): Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John Sweeney
Author: John J. Murphy
Publisher: New York Institute of Finance\n70 Pine Street\nNew York, NY 10270\n(212) 344-2900
Price: $45 plus $2 shipping\n(U.S. only)
\nMr. Technician, John Murphy, has written a book to meet the need for a \""good solid text that [begins] at\nthe beginning and [takes] the reader through most of the important areas of technical analysis as they\n[apply] to the futures markets in a logical, step-by-step fashion....\"" This is a tall order, given the\ndisparities in the many approaches taken to technical analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-174-174-technical-analysis-of-the-futures-markets-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-174-174-technical-analysis-of-the-futures-markets-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-174-174-technical-analysis-of-the-futures-markets-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-acomple-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (175-179): A complete computer trading program part 3 by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A complete computer trading program part 3 by John F. Ehlers
This is the third of four articles that give a description and BASIC computer program listing enabling\nyou to perform technical analysis on your Apple ][ computer.
In the first two installments of this series, we started with a data read program and added a plotting\nprogram for the high, low and close of prices. This article will add to that program, enabling you to plot\nand superimpose moving averages and the Parabolic system over the price history.
Adding Listing I to your current plotting program is very easy. Simply LOAD the plotting program from\nthe last issue and then type in the line numbers and program as given in Listing 1. When you have\ncompleted the typing, just SAVE the program to your disk.
After you have typed the program and saved it, you can immediately begin to use the moving average and\nParabolic system functions you have created."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-175-179-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-3-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-175-179-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-3-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-175-179-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-3-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-enhance-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (180-182): Enhanced Williams %R by Robert J. Kinder, Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Enhanced Williams %R by Robert J. Kinder, Jr.
The Enhanced Williams %R Index on Volume and Price (EWRVP) is based on the original %R\noscillator constructed by Larry Williams. The original %R . considers only changes in price, while the\nEnhanced Williams %R Index on Volume and Price reacts to changes in price, volume and the current\nstate of the market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-180-182-enhanced-williams-r-by-robert-j-kinder-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-180-182-enhanced-williams-r-by-robert-j-kinder-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-180-182-enhanced-williams-r-by-robert-j-kinder-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c05-market-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:5 (183-185): Market Analyzer PLUS by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Analyzer PLUS by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Dow Jones & Company, Inc.,\nP.O. Box 300,\nPrinceton, NJ 08543-0300\nPhone: Mark Fischer (609) 520-4641\nErin Rodgers (609) 520-4642\nCustomer Service: (800) 257-5114
Price: $449
Hardware: IBM PC/XT/AT or AT&T PC 6300, Tandy 1000, 1200 or 3000, 2 DSDD floppies or\nbetter, 300-2400 baud Hayes or true Hayes compatible modem, monochrome or color monitor, CG or\nEGA card, Epson FX or MX compatible printer, DOS 2.0+ or MSDOS 2.11. This package will use\nabout 640K of storage on a hard disk, plus space for data.
Ratings:\nEase of Use: B\nDocumentation: A\nReliability: A\nError Handling: A\nVendor Support: A+\nAnalytical Level: Intermediate
What we have here, as I remarked in reviewing Market Manager PLUS, is a very solid, very thorough,\nwell-debugged program. On its own, Market Analyzer PLUS (\""MAP\"" for brevity's sake) will call up Dow\nJones, download and store your data, run through all your own personal analyses, and then print out the\ncharts and data for your review. Clearly, daily routine is well handled—it all works beautifully.\nInstallation and setup is particularly well done—literally step by step."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-183-185-market-analyzer-plus-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-183-185-market-analyzer-plus-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-5-183-185-market-analyzer-plus-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c06-larrywi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:6 (188-190): Larry Williams: Where will he go next?"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Larry Williams: Where will he go next?
Larry Williams—author, trader, technical systems designer—is a man of many interests. He began\nfollowing the stock market in 1965, soon started trading and by 1967 was a registered investment\nadviser. He switched to commodities and is probably best known for the $1 million he made and wrote\nabout in the 1973 bull market.
At age 45, he has, among other things, run for the United States Senate in his home state of Montana and\nnarrowly lost, carried on a busy lecture/seminar circuit while managing his trading from airport\ntelephones, written trading books, developed a number of computer trading systems and refined the %R\noscillator into a tool that is now a standard for many traders.
The one consistent theme in his varied life—trading—is once again dominating his activities. He is\nlimiting his public exposure and ended the publication of Commodity Timing newsletter in January.\nStocks & Commodities talked with Larry at his California office where he is intent on the markets and\non refining his systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-188-190-larry-williams-where-will-he-go-next-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-188-190-larry-williams-where-will-he-go-next-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-188-190-larry-williams-where-will-he-go-next-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c06-maximiz-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:6 (192-194): Maximizing profits with stop orders: The Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 11 by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Maximizing profits with stop orders: The Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 11 by Jack K. Hutson
No matter what technical system you use, the first rule of successful trading and investing is: Cut your\nlosses short. No one believed more firmly in this sage advice than Richard D. Wyckoff.\n\""No one can trade or invest without losses,\"" he said. \""Danger is present in every trade, whether it be for\ninvestment or speculation. In the stock market you must be constantly on your guard: Always be\nexpecting something to happen.\""
Stop orders, in Wyckoff's view, are the mark of a professional attitude that acknowledges the ability to\nfalter and the wisdom of money management. Stop orders also are an aid to judgment, allowing the trader\nand the investor to operate with less concern and more mental"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-192-194-maximizing-profits-with-stop-orders-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-11-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-192-194-maximizing-profits-with-stop-orders-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-11-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-192-194-maximizing-profits-with-stop-orders-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-11-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c06-artific-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:6 (195-199): Artificial Intelligence by Neil Gordon, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Artificial Intelligence by Neil Gordon, Ph.D.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the field of computer science that attempts to imitate human cognitive\nbehavior in computers. In problem solving, AI reflects the approach, knowledge, viewpoints and biases\nof the human. Previously, computers have been used to solve only algorithmic problems—write a\nformula, give the computer complete data and the computer calculates the answer.
But all problems do not lend themselves to algorithmic solutions. AI programs differ from more\nconventional computer applications because they deal with non-numeric (qualitative) data and can\nfunction with uncertain or incomplete information."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-195-199-artificial-intelligence-by-neil-gordon-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-195-199-artificial-intelligence-by-neil-gordon-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-195-199-artificial-intelligence-by-neil-gordon-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c06-modern-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:6 (200-202): Modern portfolio theory: A powerful tool for futures investing Part 1 by Gary S. Antonacci"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Modern portfolio theory: A powerful tool for futures investing Part 1 by Gary S. Antonacci
In an effort to improve on the traditional risk and return characteristics available from investment\nopportunities, academic researchers developed Modern Portfolio Theory. Modern Portfolio Theory shifts\nthe focus of attention from individual investments to portfolios of investments. In fact, the basic premise\nof Modern Portfolio Theory is that investors should only be concerned with the expected returns and\nrisks of their entire investment portfolio. Returns and risks on individual investments matter only in how\nthey effect overall portfolio returns and risks.
An important assumption of Modern Portfolio Theory is that all investors are risk-averse. In other words,\ninvestors want high returns while limiting variability of returns. The theory shows how risk-averse\ninvestors should combine individual investments in their portfolios to give the least risk possible,\nconsistent with the returns they seek. To quote Burton Malkiel in Random Walk Down Wall Street , \""The\ntheory gives a rigorous mathematical justification to the age-old investment maxim that diversification is\na sensible strategy for investors wanting to reduce risk.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-200-202-modern-portfolio-theory-a-powerful-tool-for-futures-investing-part-1-by-gary-s-antonacci-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-200-202-modern-portfolio-theory-a-powerful-tool-for-futures-investing-part-1-by-gary-s-antonacci-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-200-202-modern-portfolio-theory-a-powerful-tool-for-futures-investing-part-1-by-gary-s-antonacci-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c06-acomple-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:6 (203-206): A complete computer trading program Part 4 by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A complete computer trading program Part 4 by John F. Ehlers
This is the conclusion of four articles that give a description and listing of an AppletÒ ][ BASIC\ncomputer program, enabling you to perform technical analysis on your computer with 48K of memory\nand one disk drive. This article adds the Commodity Channel Index, Directional Trend Indicator and\nRelative Strength Index to the graphical representations of price, moving averages and the Parabolic\nsystem."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-203-206-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-4-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-203-206-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-4-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-203-206-a-complete-computer-trading-program-part-4-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c06-winning-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:6 (207-210): Winning under stress: the fight-flight reaction by Van K. Tharp, PhD."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Winning under stress: the fight-flight reaction by Van K. Tharp, PhD.
In primitive times, basic survival was man's most potent source of stress. Life or death, quite literally,\nhung in the balance of everyday decisions and one way early man learned to cope was by developing the\n''fight-flight\"" reaction. It was a primitive, biological response to decision making under stress—either\nbattle the apparent threat or run away from it.
This behavioral legacy is one that traders still must deal with today—even though we live in an entirely\ndifferent world with entirely different stresses. But unlike our Ice Age counterparts, we have the choice of\nwinning our survival—our financial survival—in different, and more effective ways. It starts by\nunderstanding how mind and body work together when confronted with the biological component of\nstress."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-207-210-winning-under-stress-the-fight-flight-reaction-by-van-k-tharp-phd-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-207-210-winning-under-stress-the-fight-flight-reaction-by-van-k-tharp-phd-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-207-210-winning-under-stress-the-fight-flight-reaction-by-van-k-tharp-phd-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c06-howtobe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:6 (211-213): How to be wrong and still profit by David L. Caplan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How to be wrong and still profit by David L. Caplan
Why bother learning and using professional option strategies? Why spend the time and energy to\nlearn how and when to use options and option strategies when, in trading futures, all you have to do is\nuse your technical, fundamental or system analysis, pick the direction of the market, follow the trend, buy\nlow, sell high and reap the profits?
In comparison to those two or three decisions that have to be made in trading futures, option strategists\nhave almost 40 billion decisions to make! Should options be bought or sold? Should puts or calls be\nused? Which strike prices should be used? Which trading months offer the best premium value? Which\ncombinations of strategies should be used? And should options be used at all? In totality, it has been\ncomputed that there are more than 40 billion potential combinations of strategies that can be used on any\nONE commodity to making a trading decision. In fact, it is so complex that, similar to chess, a computer\nprogram has not yet been invented that can outperform an expert."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-211-213-how-to-be-wrong-and-still-profit-by-david-l-caplan-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-211-213-how-to-be-wrong-and-still-profit-by-david-l-caplan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-211-213-how-to-be-wrong-and-still-profit-by-david-l-caplan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c06-eurodlr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:6 (214-216): Eurodollar futures using entry/exit methods combined with stops by S.L. Kille and T.P. Drinka"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Eurodollar futures using entry/exit methods combined with stops by S.L. Kille and T.P. Drinka
In the May 1987 issue of this magazine, we reported the impact of money management on total net\nprofit from simulated trading of Eurodollar futures with Relative Strength Index (RSI) using stops and\nfilters. We simulated trading of the 1983-1985 March, June, September and December contracts for the\nperiod of December 2, 1982 through December 1, 1985. The simulations were conducted on the nearby\ncontract only, with roll-over occurring on the first trading day of the expiration month. Trades were made\nat the open, and a $100 commission was charged per turn. We ran 1,089 RSI parameter combinations:\nRSI length was incremented from a 4-day to a 20-day by 2-day steps, the short parameter was\ndecremented from 90 to 60 by 3-point steps, and the long parameter was incremented from 10 to 40 by\n3-point steps."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-214-216-eurodollar-futures-using-entry-exit-methods-combined-with-stops-by-s-l-kille-and-t-p-drinka-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-214-216-eurodollar-futures-using-entry-exit-methods-combined-with-stops-by-s-l-kille-and-t-p-drinka-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-214-216-eurodollar-futures-using-entry-exit-methods-combined-with-stops-by-s-l-kille-and-t-p-drinka-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c06-quicksc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:6 (217-217): Quick Scans by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick Scans by John Sweeney
FINANCIAL FUTURES TRADING SYSTEM
Essex Eurotrader\nEssex Trading Company\n300 West Adams, #319\nChicago, IL 60606
Price: $995, with 5-day money back guarantee
Computer: IBM
It's unfortunate that trading systems take so long to check out. You need at least a full year to see how\nthey do after publication, and preferably more! Nevertheless, some inspire more confidence than others\non arrival and Essex Eurotrader is one such."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-217-217-quick-scans-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-217-217-quick-scans-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-6-217-217-quick-scans-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-stop-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (226-228): Stop worrying yourself out of profits By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stop worrying yourself out of profits By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Every time Michael thought about entering the market, he said to himself \""But what if I lose?\"" Those\nthoughts often paralyzed him from action or delayed his entry so long that many opportunities simply\npassed before he would pick up the phone.
When Michael did open a position, all he could think about were negative consequences. \""My system is\nwrong at least half the time—what if this is one of those times?\"" He couldn't sleep because his mind was\nracing with those \""what if\"" thoughts. Michael suffered from a chronic \""dis-ease\"" of the mind called worry.
Current research suggests that both a biological component and a psychological component of stress\nimpair human performance and that it is useful to consider these two components separately. The\nbiological component is the fight-flight response, a primitive reaction that early man developed in order\nto survive. (See Stocks & Commodities, June 1987.) This physiological arousal causes people to narrow\ntheir focus and put more energy into what they are doing. It might help you run faster or fight more\naggressively, but it does not help you invest more successfully."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-226-228-stop-worrying-yourself-out-of-profits-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-226-228-stop-worrying-yourself-out-of-profits-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-226-228-stop-worrying-yourself-out-of-profits-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-forcast-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (231-232): Forecasting the market with the overbought/oversold indicator by Steven B. Achelis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Forecasting the market with the overbought/oversold indicator by Steven B. Achelis
The terms \""overbought\"" and \""oversold\"" are often used to discuss market conditions. However, as\nanyone who has placed a short trade simply on the basis that the market is overbought knows, the market\ncan remain overbought for long periods of time.
There are a number of indicators which can be used to quantify overbought/oversold (OB/OS) conditions.\nMost methods deal with internal momentum as measured by changes in price. Popular price OB/OS\nindicators include the rate-of-change of prices (expressed in either points or percentages) and the\ndifference between two moving averages (often referred to as MACD)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-231-232-forecasting-the-market-with-the-overbought-oversold-indicator-by-steven-b-achelis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-231-232-forecasting-the-market-with-the-overbought-oversold-indicator-by-steven-b-achelis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-231-232-forecasting-the-market-with-the-overbought-oversold-indicator-by-steven-b-achelis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-algebra-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (233-235): The algebra of inequalities by Donald D. Bump, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The algebra of inequalities by Donald D. Bump, Ph.D.
Many technical systems, simple and complex, come down to a decision based on inequality. For\nexample, \""If the 10-day moving average for today is greater than that of yesterday, go (or remain) long.\""\nThe criteria for the decision can be expressed as the inequality:
If 10MA1 > 10MA2 buy (hold) long
Consider another simple system: \""If the 4-day moving average penetrates the 8-day moving average in\nthe upwards direction, go long.\"" A decision here is indicated by:
If 4MA1 > 8MA1 then buy (hold) long"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-233-235-the-algebra-of-inequalities-by-donald-d-bump-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-233-235-the-algebra-of-inequalities-by-donald-d-bump-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-233-235-the-algebra-of-inequalities-by-donald-d-bump-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-intrady-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (236-238): Intraday swings with wave charts: The Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 12 by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Intraday swings with wave charts: The Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 12 by Jack K. Hutson
The serious follower of Wyckoff, a trader who embraces the entire scope and intricate details of this\nmethodology, has not completed his or her analytic arsenal without the Wyckoff Wave, a price vs. time\nchart that tracks intraday swings much like a doctor taking a patient's pulse.
Whether you trade by the hour or the year, it's the intraday swings, where bears and bulls test each other's\nstrengths and weaknesses minute by minute, that grow and merge into the minor, intermediate and\nlongest-term trends of most profit taking. By revealing this innermost working of the market, the Wave\nChart frequently warns its reader of upcoming trend changes several days to a week before they would\nbecome apparent in the composite averages. It provides vital information for determining technical\nposition and timing commitments. On a more intuitive level, its use heightens the trader's innate sense of\ncritical market changes and important turning points."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-236-238-intraday-swings-with-wave-charts-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-12-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-236-238-intraday-swings-with-wave-charts-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-12-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-236-238-intraday-swings-with-wave-charts-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-12-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-modern-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (239-241): part 2 Modern Portfolio Theory in managed futures by Gary S. Antonacci"",""caption-linebreaks"":""part 2 Modern Portfolio Theory in managed futures by Gary S. Antonacci
Optimal portfolio diversification using Modern Portfolio Theory is a particularly valuable tool when\napplied to futures trading and is the key to earning attractive returns with less risk. Developing efficient\nportfolios comprised of professionally managed commodity futures trading programs requires three\nelements: expected rate of return, volatility, and correlation.
I have found through testing that 3.5 years of past performance data works best in estimating future\nperformance results. A track record loses a great deal of its relevancy going back further than 3.5 years,\nsince market conditions change over time and the number of different futures markets is constantly\ngrowing. In fact, weighing the past 18 months of data more heavily than the preceding months seems to\ngive an even better indication of expected future returns."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-239-241-part-2-modern-portfolio-theory-in-managed-futures-by-gary-s-antonacci-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-239-241-part-2-modern-portfolio-theory-in-managed-futures-by-gary-s-antonacci-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-239-241-part-2-modern-portfolio-theory-in-managed-futures-by-gary-s-antonacci-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-usingst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (242-244): Using stochastics by Cynthia Keel and Heidi Schmidt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using stochastics by Cynthia Keel and Heidi Schmidt
The use of stochastics, particularly in the futures markets, has become a necessary part of the trader's\ndaily strategy. Although application of stochastics is simple to understand, adaptations of the basic\nequation abound. Analysts should be aware of the ambiguous subtleties in stochastics calculation, the\ninfluences the ambiguities have on expected results, and how the uses of stochastics differ among\nfinancial software.
This article presents a general summary of the stochastic and its use, as well as a financial software\nsurvey."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-242-244-using-stochastics-by-cynthia-keel-and-heidi-schmidt-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-242-244-using-stochastics-by-cynthia-keel-and-heidi-schmidt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-242-244-using-stochastics-by-cynthia-keel-and-heidi-schmidt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-kelly-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (245-246): The Kelly Hotline by Bob Bukowski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Kelly Hotline by Bob Bukowski
Vilar F. Kelly, CTA\n142 Sleepy Hollow Rd\nNew Canaan, CT 06840\n(203) 966-2153
Contracts: S&P 500 and NYFE stock index futures.
Services: Daily entry/exit instructions via telephone recording and managed account trading.\nPrice: Hotline: 3 months, $300; 6 months, $500; 12 months, $900; Managed accounts: 6 months,\n$600+$25 per roundturn commission.
Systems for trading stock index futures have much in common with leprechauns-they are both\nmysterious creations, continually appearing, disappearing and reappearing on the path to the elusive got\nof gold at the end of the rainbow.
In the case of the trading system distributed on Vilar Kelly's telephone hotline, something more than luck\nof the Irish seems to be at work. Trading a single S&P 500 contract under Kelly's direction for the past 12\nmonths would have netted $ 12,000 after allowing $ 100 per trade for commissions and slippage. Based\non an initial account balance of $10,000, that's an annualized return of 117% for the 54 trades signaled on\nthe hotline from March 19, 1986 until March 27, 1987. With a maximum drawdown of $3,550 plus a\ntotal outlay of $900 for Kelly's advice, it was a very good year for the trader who rigorously took every\ntrade. Of course, last year doesn't necessarily say anything about what next year's results will be."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-245-246-the-kelly-hotline-by-bob-bukowski-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-245-246-the-kelly-hotline-by-bob-bukowski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-245-246-the-kelly-hotline-by-bob-bukowski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-mutual-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (247-250): Mutual fund timing by Fay H. Dworkin, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Mutual fund timing by Fay H. Dworkin, Ph.D.
It's like a musical instrument: you have to learn to play it,\"" says Hubert Cafritz about his trading strategy\nfor managing a portfolio of mutual funds.
The system has been used for three years by Cafritz, a pension fund manager, and by subscribers to The\nCafritz Report. This article describes the results of my own test of the system which simulated the actions\nof an investor who began building a mutual fund trading portfolio at the beginning of 1984. This\nhypothetical portfolio is evaluated on a risk-adjusted basis for its 1984-86 performance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-247-250-mutual-fund-timing-by-fay-h-dworkin-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-247-250-mutual-fund-timing-by-fay-h-dworkin-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-247-250-mutual-fund-timing-by-fay-h-dworkin-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-usingpr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (251-253): Using ProfitTaker by Terry Apple"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using ProfitTaker by Terry Apple
Currently, numerous software packages are available that employ optimization to create technical\nmodels for futures trading. Every day I receive calls from traders around the country who are considering\nbuying one of these packages. Since many of these traders have little or no previous experience with\ntechnical trading software, the most common question that I am asked is, \""How would you perform an\noptimization test to find a profitable trading model?\"" This series of three articles will provide a general\ndescription of three of the most widely used software programs to trade futures, and will outline each of\ntheir procedures for developing and optimizing future models.
This month we will explore ProfitTaker developed by Louis Mendelsohn. In subsequent months, we will\ntake a look at Profit Catcher III by Ray Green, and Swing Trader by Robert Pardo."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-251-253-using-profittaker-by-terry-apple-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-251-253-using-profittaker-by-terry-apple-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-251-253-using-profittaker-by-terry-apple-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c07-theprof-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:7 (254-254): The Professional Option Trader's Manual by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Professional Option Trader's Manual by John Sweeney
Author: David L. Caplan
Publisher: Opportunities in Options P.O. Box 2126 Malibu, CA, 90265
Price: $70 (or $150 with a three-month subscription to Opportunities in Options)
Despite its name, this is a book for beginners in the options world and particularly for futures traders.\nProfessionals who might, indeed, be using the techniques discussed here will know them well enough to\nforego this review.
Nevertheless, this book has value as an attempt to take the typical options trader past the usual pestholes\n(generally, buying options) and get them to use multi-option positions which minimize risk while\nproviding intriguing returns on marginÑ not that margin is too closely explained here."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-254-254-the-professional-option-trader-s-manual-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-254-254-the-professional-option-trader-s-manual-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-7-254-254-the-professional-option-trader-s-manual-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c08-estimat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:8 (258-260): Estimating the Market Profile Value Area for intraday trading by Donald L. Jones"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Estimating the Market Profile Value Area for intraday trading by Donald L. Jones
T he prime question for every trader is whether to get into a market, or if in, whether to stay in or get\nout. Since these questions must be decided on the basis of inadequate knowledge (no, we really do not\nknow where the market is going), a key element in the trading decision is the state of the market. Is it\nfacilitating trade with its breadth (price range) and depth (volume), or is it showing signs of change?
A principal tool in measuring the extent to which a market is facilitating trade is Value Area, a feature of\nthe Market Profile/Liquidity Data Bank generated by the Chicago Board of Trade. This information used\nto be obtainable only on the floor of the exchange, but now is available from a Chicago data service and\nseveral quote services that carry the Market Profile."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-258-260-estimating-the-market-profile-value-area-for-intraday-trading-by-donald-l-jones-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-258-260-estimating-the-market-profile-value-area-for-intraday-trading-by-donald-l-jones-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-258-260-estimating-the-market-profile-value-area-for-intraday-trading-by-donald-l-jones-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c08-temtrdn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:8 (262-263): The TEM Trading Systems and how it all began by William Cruz"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The TEM Trading Systems and how it all began by William Cruz
The last thing on my mind when I started trading futures in the mid-1970s was developing and\nmarketing a trading system. In fact, if someone had told me back then that I'd be trading full-time and\nactually making a great deal of money at it I would have probably thought they were nuts!
But as they say, reality is stranger than fiction, and that's just where I find myself today. In just the past\nfour and half years, I've gone from being a consistent commodities loser to a very profitable winner.\nSince Jan. 1, 1985, my research account has increased 398% without any addition or withdrawals of\nfunds. What makes this fact even more satisfying to me is that I've been able to help several hundred\nother traders make the same turnaround."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-262-263-the-tem-trading-systems-and-how-it-all-began-by-william-cruz-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-262-263-the-tem-trading-systems-and-how-it-all-began-by-william-cruz-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-262-263-the-tem-trading-systems-and-how-it-all-began-by-william-cruz-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c08-warstor-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:8 (264-268): War Stories from Commodex by Philip Gotthelf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""War Stories from Commodex by Philip Gotthelf
Unforgiving is a word frequently used to describe both markets and subscribers to stock or commodity\nadvisory services. When we in the advisory business make profits, it is never enough. When we\nexperience losses, we are never forgiven.
While most experienced investors suggest it is imprudent to attempt picking absolute tops and bottoms,\nsuch as \""crystal ball\"" performance is expected from \""experts\"" who publish newsletters that cost hundreds\nor even thousands of dollars a year. Hence, we try to develop market models and fundamental analysis\nthat come as close to perfection as possible. In addition, we must establish sufficient discipline to\neffectively abandon our pursuit of the top or bottom when an approach fails or exposes us to excessive\nrisk."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-264-268-war-stories-from-commodex-by-philip-gotthelf-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-264-268-war-stories-from-commodex-by-philip-gotthelf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-264-268-war-stories-from-commodex-by-philip-gotthelf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c08-intro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:8 (269-271): Introduction to spread investing Part 1 by Frank Taucher"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Introduction to spread investing Part 1 by Frank Taucher
Most commodity traders are aware of the lower risk and margin requirements that traditional spread\ntrading offers vs. outright long or short positions. Many even have a favorite spread or two that they\nenjoy trading each year.
But are you aware of the fact that many spread traders actually earn higher returns while sleeping sounder\nthan outright speculators?
Spread investing allows one to identify attractive spread trades that can be used to construct a diversified\nportfolio of profitable and reliable spread trades. It is this diversification that allows steady profit growth,\nthe steady growth that provides for nocturnal bliss."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-269-271-introduction-to-spread-investing-part-1-by-frank-taucher-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-269-271-introduction-to-spread-investing-part-1-by-frank-taucher-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-269-271-introduction-to-spread-investing-part-1-by-frank-taucher-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c08-essex-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:8 (275-280): Essex Eurotrader by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Essex Eurotrader by John Sweeney
Eurotrader is a slick package with substance to it. It's a well-implemented compendium of trading ideas\n(conceptually disclosed), runs smoothly, minimizes losses and builds equity steadily over an extensive\nten-year track record. Should you want to customize it, a very smooth optimization capability is included.\nWhether you will have the macho to trade it depends. Read on!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-275-280-essex-eurotrader-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-275-280-essex-eurotrader-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-275-280-essex-eurotrader-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c08-economi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:8 (275-280): Product Review: Economic Investor II from Econ. By Bob Lang"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Economic Investor II from Econ. By Bob Lang
Economic Investor II\nEcon\nOne World Trade Center, Suite 7967\nNew York, NY 10048\n(212) 529-3255
Computer: IBM PC, XT, AT
Price: $399
Economic Investor is a sophisticated econometric model using concepts and power never before\navailable outside the realm of a mainframe computer. The program minimizes risk in a portfolio, using\nboth rate of return and beta as risk measures. At the same time, it can be used to predict how stock prices\nwill move under different economic conditions.
The program's four data disks contain the results of running thousands of calculations to determine the\nfactors needed to predict price movement. These regression equations have yielded seven variables\nwhich, when used with reasonable economic forecasts, allow the program to make stock price\npredictions. This technique of relating price movement to economic factors is called factor analysis and\nhas been used by academic researchers and institutional investors for years."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-275-280-product-review-economic-investor-ii-from-econ-by-bob-lang-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-275-280-product-review-economic-investor-ii-from-econ-by-bob-lang-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-275-280-product-review-economic-investor-ii-from-econ-by-bob-lang-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c08-buildin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:8 (281-283): Building a trading system by Frank Alfonso"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Building a trading system by Frank Alfonso
Dramatic world events will continue to produce uncertainty in today's global financial markets, and\nmost trading experts will agree that some form of technical strategy is necessary to reduce this\ninformation explosion to an objective buy/sell/hold decision-making process. I have developed a\ncomputerized strategy based on three primary trading principles:
Trade with the trend,\nLet your profits run, and\nCut your losses short.
Most profitable traders will agree that these three principles have had the most impact on their success.\nAlthough markets are in trends less than 50% of the time, participating in major moves is where most\nmoney is made in the futures markets. Some experts claim that most of their profits are generated by\nfewer than 10% of their trades."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-281-283-building-a-trading-system-by-frank-alfonso-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-281-283-building-a-trading-system-by-frank-alfonso-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-281-283-building-a-trading-system-by-frank-alfonso-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c08-gapwatc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:8 (284-285): Gap watching by Joe Van Nice"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Gap watching by Joe Van Nice
\nThere's nothing on a chart that isn't laden with significance for a technical trader. Price ticks and\nvolume bars jump off the chart at your eye, but they're just the beginning. Even gaps, the blank spaces left\nwhen prices leapfrog to a higher level, can be important technical indicators of the future.
Gaps are a chart's way of showing you the trading ranges in which no actual trading took place. Most are\neasy to identify and to interpret since the price action immediately following a gap will identify the\nupcoming price movement."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-284-285-gap-watching-by-joe-van-nice-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-284-285-gap-watching-by-joe-van-nice-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-8-284-285-gap-watching-by-joe-van-nice-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c09-profit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:9 (288-291): Profitability of selected technical indicators by Thomas P. Drinka and Steven L. Kille"",""caption-linebreaks"":""In previous issues, these authors reported the results of applying moving averages, momentum, Williams' %R, Wilder's Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Wilder's Directional Movement Indicator (DMI) to Chicago Board of Trade corn and long-term U.S. Treasury bond futures, COMEX silver futures, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange IMM Eurodollar futures. In this article, they report similar information for Standard & Poor's 500 futures traded at the International Monetary Market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. By Thomas P. Drinka & Steven L. Kille, page 288-291."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-288-291-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-288-291-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-288-291-profitability-of-selected-technical-indicators-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-steven-l-kille-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c09-point-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:9 (292-293): Point/ Counterpoint By Clifford S. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Point/ Counterpoint By Clifford S. Sherry, Ph.D.
I believe there are some major flaws in the statistical reasoning in Curtis McKallip's article\n\""Investigating Chart Patterns Using Markov Analysis\"" (STOCKS & COMMODITIES December\n1986). Using the raw numbers from his transition matrix, I believe that the observed probabilities for the\npairs of states should be as follows: p1,1 = 58/309 = 0.1877; p1,2 = 15/309 = 0.0485.
Thus the probability of a 1, 2 or 3 is 78/309 = 0.2524; 139/309 = 0.4498 and 92/309 = 0.2977,\nrespectively. If we assume independence, the probability of a 1,1 is equal to p1 times p1 or 0.2524 times\n0.2524 = 0.0637."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-292-293-point-counterpoint-by-clifford-s-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-292-293-point-counterpoint-by-clifford-s-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-292-293-point-counterpoint-by-clifford-s-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c09-serving-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:9 (294-296): Serving a trading apprenticeship The Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 13 by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Serving a trading apprenticeship The Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 13 by Jack K. Hutson
Anyone studying the stock market intends to remove themselves from the ranks of the public that\ndabbles with luck as their foremost rule of operation. A true student of the market doesn't graduate into\nactual trading before completing a self-imposed apprenticeship where experience becomes the teacher.
Experience hones practical skills such as the timing of trades and also builds the mental attitude that\nallows a trader or investor to think clearly and follow an analysis to its conclusion. If you, as a student of\nthe Wyckoff Method, were embarking into an apprenticeship alone, experience could be a hard and\npainful lesson. But Wyckoff offers a comprehensive package of detours around the common pitfalls that\nso often sidetrack beginning technical analysts into frustration.
Here, we'll discuss how to approach practical skills and later examine the mental and emotional attributes\na technical analyst should encourage."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-294-296-serving-a-trading-apprenticeship-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-13-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-294-296-serving-a-trading-apprenticeship-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-13-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-294-296-serving-a-trading-apprenticeship-the-wyckoff-method-of-trading-stocks-part-13-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c09-spread-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:9 (297-300): Spread Investing Tools of the trade part 2 by Frank Taucher"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spread Investing Tools of the trade part 2 by Frank Taucher
In part one, I discussed some of the pitfalls of traditional studies on the seasonality of spreading and\nhow I attempted to correct them in my spread trading. The objective of the program is to develop a\ndiversified portfolio of many spreads that can be used throughout the year for investment purposes. I\nconcluded by reviewing the details of a long CBT wheat/short soybeans spread trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-297-300-spread-investing-tools-of-the-trade-part-2-by-frank-taucher-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-297-300-spread-investing-tools-of-the-trade-part-2-by-frank-taucher-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-297-300-spread-investing-tools-of-the-trade-part-2-by-frank-taucher-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c09-wantto-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:9 (301-303): Want to try something HOT!? by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CF-DM from J.C. Productions. By John Sweeney
Some systems are so active it could give a guy a heart attack. J.C. Productions has put together one of\nthe most active and breathtaking trading systems I've run across. Of course, I haven't seen everything in\nthe world, but of the trading systems I have used, this one is unique.
To begin with, like a lot of floor traders and senior traders, CF-DM often trades against the market. Oh, it\nhas its \""I'm wrong\"" points when it will turn around and go the other way, but generally it will hold onto a\nstance with bulldog tenacity until normal market oscillation pops its position back into profitability. As\nthe position sinks deeper and deeper into the red, CF-DM just adds to it steadily, waiting for that\n\""inevitable\"" bounceback to take a profit and reverse in the trend direction. Documentation supplied on\ndisk says the program may go as high as 15 contracts in building a position. Author Mel Cassidy says\nlimit your exposure to four contracts, but then the track record must be recalculated. We tested it just as it\ncomes in the box."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-301-303-want-to-try-something-hot-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-301-303-want-to-try-something-hot-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-301-303-want-to-try-something-hot-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v05-c09-money-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-5-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.5:9 (304-308): Money supply (M2): A leading economic indicator by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Money supply (M2): A leading economic indicator by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
I want to show you an analytical technique that you can use to estimate the probability of future price\nincreases or decreases. I'll use the money supply figures (M2) from 1948-1978 as an example, but you\ncan apply this to any consistent, continuous series of prices. Along the way, we'll learn some interesting\nthings about the behavior of the money supply.
Fundamentalists (and possibly some technical analysts) seem to believe that economic indicators which\nprovide an indirect measure of aggregate supply and demand may give important insights into the\nbehavior of the stock, and possibly the commodities and futures markets."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-304-308-money-supply-m2-a-leading-economic-indicator-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-304-308-money-supply-m2-a-leading-economic-indicator-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-5-9-304-308-money-supply-m2-a-leading-economic-indicator-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-comptrd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (11-13): The Compulsive Trader Part 1 by Van K Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Compulsive Trader\nPart 1\nby Van K Tharp, Ph.D.
Compulsiveness is perhaps the most serious of all trading problems. I have evaluated psychological\nprofiles on thousands of commodity and option traders. Despite the fact that about 50% of the traders I\nhave evaluated make money in the futures markets, I would still describe about 5%-10% of my sample as\nbeing compulsive gamblers.
At least once a month I get a phone call from someone who has lost $250,000 or more in the markets and\nwho is wondering how I can help. They typically say, \""My wife would kill me if I spent any more money\non investment-related stuff.\"" It is obvious to me from the conversation that, despite their large losses and\ntheir reluctance to obtain help of any kind, they are still active in the market.
As a result of these experiences, I became determined to gather more information about the compulsive\ntrader. I visited several local chapters of Gambler's Anonymous (G.A.) and found several members whose\nprimary area of compulsive gambling was speculative trading. One gentleman, an active commodity\nbroker, was very nervous and refused to be interviewed. Another person mysteriously came into some\nmoney and dropped out of G.A. (probably to again play the markets). After several visits to various\nchapters, I was able to find a member who had lost his wealth to the markets and who was eager to share\nhis story with me in order to help others. His story, told to me in April 1987, is the first of two articles\nexploring the problem of compulsive trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-11-13-the-compulsive-trader-part-1-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-11-13-the-compulsive-trader-part-1-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-11-13-the-compulsive-trader-part-1-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-tradopt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (14-17): Trading options volatility by John Nelson and Stephen Kreis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading options volatility\nby John Nelson and Stephen Kreis
The objective in trading options is generally a rather straightforward one—buy the premiums low and\nsell them high. For many traders there is no need to make \""option action\"" any more complicated than\nthat. Other option investors like to take a more in-depth look at the factors that affect the premium level\nto develop their trading strategies.
Volatility is the most important factor affecting option premiums. In fact, some traders only take\npositions based on volatility, and are always neutral with respect to price. Knowing volatility and\nsuccessful options trading go hand in hand.
Volatility describes how fast and how much prices change. A price series with high volatility is one\nwhich has large and fast price movements. A low volatility price series has small and infrequent price\nchanges.
In Figure 1, price series A is more volatile because the price changes are much larger than price series B.\nWhen looking at volatility, the actual price level and direction are not important. What is important is the\nsize and rate of price change.
What does this mean to the option trader? An option with a higher volatility will have higher\npremiums—prices—than an option with lower volatility. When futures prices are moving around a lot, as\nin prices series A, there is a higher probability that an option will become in the money—rise above its\nstrike price. Therefore, option sellers demand higher premiums to compensate for the greater risk of\nending up with a losing position. Options buyers are willing to pay more, because their positions will be\nmore likely winners in a moving market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-14-17-trading-options-volatility-by-john-nelson-and-stephen-kreis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-14-17-trading-options-volatility-by-john-nelson-and-stephen-kreis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-14-17-trading-options-volatility-by-john-nelson-and-stephen-kreis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-making-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (18-19): Making spreadsheets part of your trading system Part I by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Making spreadsheets part of your trading system\nPart I\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
This column will be all about using Lotus 1-2-3, Release 2.0 as a trading tool. Given the number of\nprograms written for technical analysis fundamental analysis, and portfolio management, why would\nanybody want to use Lotus 1-2-3 for this purpose? The answer is simple—most traders are not\nprogrammers, but they want the control and-the customization power that programming can provide.\nLotus 1-2-3 gives both. Lotus 1-2-3 helped me develop a trading system and a historical testing system to\nevaluate indicators. What I wanted to do fits me exactly. You can do the same.
Refining trading systems
Articles in Stocks & Commodities often describe some new angle on a technical indicator. Invariably, this\nnew twist is not part of my off-the-shelf charting package. However, the system looks intriguing, so I set\nup Lotus 1-2-3 to test the system against my data, and add in a few bells and whistles of my own to\nfurther improve performance.
For example, Gregory L. Morris, \""Trend of the Trend\"" in the February 1987 issue of Stocks &\nCommodities, presented an indicator which was both interesting to me and very susceptible to Lotus\n1-2-3 testing. The continuing series of articles by Steven Kille and Thomas Drinka—which rank the\nprofitability of indicators when applied to various futures contracts—provides another opportunity to test\nand refine their findings. Just proving they are correct is not enough. I want to be able to add my\nrefinements to their system. A similar procedure is used in more rigorously testing the many indicators\nwhich are available in my charting package."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-18-19-making-spreadsheets-part-of-your-trading-system-part-i-by-jim-summers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-18-19-making-spreadsheets-part-of-your-trading-system-part-i-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-18-19-making-spreadsheets-part-of-your-trading-system-part-i-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-volcm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (20-22): Volume Called the Market by R. Stuart Thomson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume Called the Market\nby R. Stuart Thomson
By going back to October 1986 we can better understand the market explosion that occurred in January\n1987, thanks to our cumulative volume (CV) charts. (See \""Cumulative Volume\"" in the June 1986 issue of\nStocks & Commodities.)
Starting in October 1986 and with some slow-down in December as the impact of the new Tax Reform\nAct reared its ugly head, the technical picture steadily improved. Figure 1 shows how the Dow Jones\nIndustrials' cumulative volume broke out to a new high in September 1986, quickly retreated to a higher\nlow that same month, broke out to a sustained new high in October, and then made another new high in\nDecember. Once the year-end finally arrived, the market was ready to spring into action.
The S&P Transports had failed to confirm new DJIA highs for months, and persisted in drifting lower\nfrom April to July 1986. That was the bottom (Figure 2). Finally, in October, the S&P Transports\ncumulative volume broke out to a new high right in tune with the action of the DJIA cumulative volume.
One of the technical indicators that stubbornly refused to confirm the new 1986 DJIA highs was the\nNYSE Advance/ Decline Index (Figure 3). It made a high in April 1986, drifted lower into August,\nrallied into November, and then made a final low on December 31, 1986. While it was failing to confirm\nthe Dow Industrials during all this time, one is struck by how shallow the pull-back actually was, and,\nfinally, when the turn came, it only took 21 trading sessions to go from its low for the year 1986 to a new\nhigh in early February 1987."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-20-22-volume-called-the-market-by-r-stuart-thomson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-20-22-volume-called-the-market-by-r-stuart-thomson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-20-22-volume-called-the-market-by-r-stuart-thomson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-intro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (23-23): Introductions by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Introductions\nby Arthur A. Merrill
Stocks tend to fly together, rising in bull markets and declining in bear markets. For this reason,\nanalysts have been searching many years for indicators of the future of the overall stock market.
It isn't easy to find a leader for the market, since the stock market itself is a leading indicator of the future\nof business. An indicator of stock prices is an indicator of an indicator, or an indicator of the second\ndegree.
Unlike the research of the alchemists, though, analysts have been successful in finding many stock\nindicators. Some of their findings are truly useful; others flare out like a rocket and disappear.
This column will concentrate on indicators, their use and their performance records. Some of the\nindicators we plan to cover in this column, and the reasons for using them, are provided in the following\nlist. If your favorite indicator isn't included here, or if you have some specific questions concerning\nindicators, write to me in care of Stocks & Commodities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-23-23-introductions-by-arthur-a-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-23-23-introductions-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-23-23-introductions-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-marketm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (24-27): Market Maker by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Maker\nby John Sweeney
Inmark Development Corporation
139 Fulton St., Suite 810
New York, NY 10038
Product: Analytical package for stocks, futures
Price: $495
Equipment: IBM PC/XT/AT or 100% compatible; 512K RAM, 2 floppies or floppy with hard drive;\nCGA, EGA, Hercules and other graphics; Epson MX/FX/LX or Okidata w/plus and play ROMs;\nHayes Smartmodem 300/ 1200 or equivalent, and DOS 2.0
Ratings:
Level of Analysis: Intermediate
Ease of Use: A
Error Handling: A
Customer Service: B+
Documentation: B+
Reliability: A
Bringing out another analytical package takes courage these days. How many are there? A bunch,\nright? How can you tell the difference between them all? Do any of them do anything swell for your\nprofits? Besides which, they all usually cost a fortune, right?
Relax! Herein, we'll use Market Maker, a new package from Inmark Development to try to make sense of\nthe tradeoffs in this genre. Market Maker is a good vehicle for this because it deals well with all the\nproblems you find in this level of work (see Figure 1), and it is positioned squarely in what I call the\n\""intermediate\"" range of current technical analysis. That is, it presents canned studies for use on your data\nbut has limited or no abilities for generating unique, personal indicators, doing optimization, evaluating\ntrading strategies or doing independent statistical analysis.
Before I launch into this, let me say that we don't present every package we receive. We try to take the\nfew that appear competitive with the best on the market (Figure 2). Market Maker easily got on my list\nbecause it is extremely fast and easy to set up and use."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-24-27-market-maker-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-24-27-market-maker-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-24-27-market-maker-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-whichmm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (28-30): Which Money Manager? by Charles Milmoe"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Which Money Manager?\nby Charles Milmoe
None can answer the question absolutely, but there is a method of determining if your money manager\nhas even a chance of making money for you next year. It requires a small amount of high school math and\na desire to select a manager intelligently rather than emotionally.
Many people select futures advisors based upon emotion (greed and fear); but, the failure rate in futures\ntrading is so high that the prudent use of the following formula can help you objectively select and\nevaluate a futures and futures options money manager.
The first requirement is that the advisor or the system has been profitable for at least three years. Most\nmajor brokerage firms insist on this, however, sometimes even they make exceptions. But you, as an\nindividual investor, should never make an exception to this rule. If you like a particular advisor and/or a\ntrading idea, have the patience to watch until the track record is at least three years old. You will protect\nyourself from many financial disasters by exercising this patience. This patience also will contribute\nsubstantially to your future success once you actually invest with a money manager.
The second consideration should be that the track record has been profitable during both an inflationary\nperiod ( 1970 1980) and a deflationary period (1981 - present). Purely technical system advisors may\nsuggest this should not be a factor, but analysis shows how poorly many trend followers have done in the\npast four years. Either their systems aren't purely technical and have a bullish bias, or their systems need\nslowly developing trends to be profitable. However, prices often fall precipitously without gradual\nwarning periods."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-28-30-which-money-manager-by-charles-milmoe-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-28-30-which-money-manager-by-charles-milmoe-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-28-30-which-money-manager-by-charles-milmoe-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-trenp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (31-33): Trends and price channels by Heidi Schmidt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trends and price channels\nby Heidi Schmidt
For the beginner, it is important to know that technical analysis is based on the belief that current\nmarket prices are related to prices that occurred previously. In other words, technical analysis is the\nopposite of the random walk theory, which states that prices are not related to each other from one day to\nthe next. Thus, the technician analyzes past price (or yield) activity hoping to glean from it the future\ndirection of prices. Technical analysis does not attempt to establish a mathematical model of market\nactivity, such as an econometric model, but rather studies the symmetry of historical market price moves,\nto formulate price projections.
There is no single tool more important to the technical analyst than the identification of trend.\nIdentification of trend is the heart of market symmetry, for business activity is known to occur in cycles\nand the correct and timely identification of a change in trend, marking the change in the business cycle,\ncan be very profitable. Price channels are the chartist's tool for using trend to their advantage.
Dow Theory is credited by most technicians as being the \""grandaddy\"" of technical analysis and it is Dow\nTheory upon which the \""bible\"" of technical analysis is based: Edwards and Magee's Technical Analysis of\nStock Trends, first published in 1948. A basic tenet of Dow Theory is that price moves tend to occur in\ntrends. By Dow definition, an up-trend in price, a bull market, is defined by successively higher highs\ncoupled with successively higher lows. A down-trend in price, a bear market, is defined by successively\nlower highs coupled with successively lower lows."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-31-33-trends-and-price-channels-by-heidi-schmidt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-31-33-trends-and-price-channels-by-heidi-schmidt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-31-33-trends-and-price-channels-by-heidi-schmidt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-winws-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (33-33): Winning on Wall Street by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Winning on Wall Street\nby John Sweeney
Author: Martin Zweig
Publisher: Warner Books
666 Fifth Avenue
New York, NY 10103
Price: $20
This is a good book. It has a very reasonable approach to trading the market, or even individual stocks.\nIt's a compendium of experience-generated trading guidelines and indicators which should well serve a\nnew trader or someone with fewer than five years of market study. It's frank (\""Had I stayed with it, I\nwould have made 50 points ... But that's only a fantasy.\""), focused (\""There is nothing wrong with bonds.\nMy specialty happens to be stocks.\"") and straightforward (\""Buy strength, sell weakness, and stay in gear\nwith the market.\"").
If detail is your thing, there are umpteen indicators described in detail, both fundamental and technical.\nOne or two (such as the Zweig Sentiment Indicator) are not disclosed—you're given the elements and the\nidea and left to create a similar indicator on your own. The indicators that are disclosed are well worked\nout in worksheets and displayed in graphs. In broad categories, the indicators used are monetary,\nmomentum, sentiment and seasonal. From my standpoint, this hits the high points without overdosing.
There is a promotional function to the book which is most prominent in Chapter 11, \""How to Pick the\nWinners.\"" The answer is to search for \""strong growth in company earnings and sales; a reasonable\nprice-to-earnings ratio; buying by corporate insiders; and reasonably strong price action...\"" You can do\nthis by hand or use the Zweig Security Screen, which apparently searches about 3,000 stocks for proper\ncharacteristics."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-33-33-winning-on-wall-street-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-33-33-winning-on-wall-street-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-33-33-winning-on-wall-street-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-mrktpro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (34-36): Market Profile Part 2 by Thomas P. Drinka, Ph.D. and Robert L. McNutt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Profile\nPart 2\nby Thomas P. Drinka, Ph.D. and Robert L. McNutt
The market is composed of time, price and volume. Each day, the market—in attempting to facilitate\ntrade—develops a price range delineated by the daily high and low and a Value Area where most of the\nprices congregate. Volume is generated by the interaction of time and price.
A \""brief time/price relationship\"" is established when price does not remain in a particular range for a long\ntime period. In this case, the market does not accept a particular price or price area and moves away from\nit.
An \""extended time/price relationship\"" is established when price remains in a range for a long period of\ntime during the trading day. In this case, the market accepts a particular price or price area and establishes\nvalue by trading within that area.
The fundamental approach to trading is predicated on the notion that—under the prevailing market\nconditions—the current price can diverge from market value. This divergence creates market opportunity.\nThe key is knowing when current market price diverges from value and being able to judge whether price\nwill move to value or value to price. The Chicago Board of Trade Market Profile identifies the Value\nArea within a day's range and allows a trader to take advantage of a divergence of price and value.
Usually, the Value Area is established as the market uses price probes which move, alternately, too high\nand too low in order to create Time/Price Opportunities or TPOs that seek the trading activity of market\nparticipants. These price probes have an impact on the quantity supplied and demanded: As price moves\nup, the quantity supplied is stimulated and the quantity demanded is dampened. As price moves down,\nthe quantity supplied is dampened and the quantity demanded is stimulated. In this fashion, price\nconsolidation is promoted and a Value Area is established within which most trades occur."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-34-36-market-profile-part-2-by-thomas-p-drinka-ph-d-and-robert-l-mcnutt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-34-36-market-profile-part-2-by-thomas-p-drinka-ph-d-and-robert-l-mcnutt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-34-36-market-profile-part-2-by-thomas-p-drinka-ph-d-and-robert-l-mcnutt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-volanls-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (37-39): Volume analysis Part 1 by John C. Lawlor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume analysis\nPart 1\nby John C. Lawlor
Historically, volume has had only modest use as a technical analysis factor, even though volume, or\nthe magnitude of volume, is a most respected market force. Every day, the 15 most active stocks are\nlisted—a subtle tribute to volume. Most technicians, when referring to price relationships, state that a\nlarge move in price should be on increased volume.
Cumulative Volume (CV) as treated in a recent article in Stocks & Commodities (June 1986), is one basic\nmeasure of volume. The first important requirement for studying CV is to co-plot it with price. The scale\nfor CV must be properly proportioned so that price and CV will tend to track together for portions of the\nchart. In addition, the option must be available to vary the CV scale, and to vary the point where price\nand CV are tied together (coincident). This provides the option of studying divergence over any portion\nof the chart."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-37-39-volume-analysis-part-1-by-john-c-lawlor-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-37-39-volume-analysis-part-1-by-john-c-lawlor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-37-39-volume-analysis-part-1-by-john-c-lawlor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c01-trdprim-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:1 (40-41): Trading primary markets by Allen D. Hanson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading primary markets\nby Allen D. Hanson
Few traders understand the difference between primary futures markets and those that are often called\n\""secondary\"" markets. Sometimes it is not easy to tell the difference between them. As a new futures\ncontract develops it gains status through volume (the number of contracts traded during a session) and\nopen interest (the number of contracts that haven't been closed). Commercial participation grows and\nsoon a specific industry is relying on this futures market as a prime source for its cash pricing. During the\ntransition from a secondary to a primary market, however, there is a period where there is no clear\ndistinction between the two classifications.
Obvious primary futures markets in the United States include wheat, soybeans, corn, silver and other\nheavily traded commodities where dealers rely on futures quotes to price the cash commodity. Obvious\nsecondary futures markets include the stock indices and other financials where the cash market is actually\nthe primary market—the futures market follows the cash, but does not actually set the cash price. There\nare literally dozens of futures contracts that are halfway in between. They are not influential enough to be\nprimary markets, but they do influence the trade to some extent as secondary markets.
The Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York is regarded by many investors as a primary market in\nprecious metals. Many gold and silver dealers rely on the COMEX for their inventory pricing and they\nbase cash transactions on COMEX quotes. The use of a particular futures market by industry executives\nto establish price is the key to classification as a true primary market. The United States government,\nhowever, selected the London Gold Fix to price the new U.S. Eagle coin to the dealer trade. Regardless\nof the reason, the COMEX became a secondary market in this particular case despite the tremendous\ninfluence COMEX has had worldwide in the pricing of precious metals."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-40-41-trading-primary-markets-by-allen-d-hanson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-40-41-trading-primary-markets-by-allen-d-hanson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-1-40-41-trading-primary-markets-by-allen-d-hanson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-dealing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (358-361): Dealing with conflict by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dealing with conflict\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Emotional conflict is one of the most significant problems that most traders (or people) have to deal\nwith in their lives. Yet explaining what it is or how it occurs is not easy. What follows is an interview\nwith a trader who went through a major improvement in his trading and life as a result of conflict\nresolution.
Although the exercise had taken place almost five months prior to this interview, when he actually\ndescribed the conflict he relived it again. As a result, I've made few notes about his language patterns and\nthis behavior to illustrate what was going on during the narration. Most of what happens is\nself-explanatory, so I have kept my comments to a minimum. This trader's experience illustrates common\nsymptoms of conflicts, the nature of the conflict, the resolution of the conflict and the dramatic results of\nthat resolution.
The trader agreed to do this interview because he wanted to help other traders understand themselves\nbetter. In addition, he also believes that some of the insights he gained after going through the process are\nimportant to share with fellow traders. For the reasons alluded to in the narration, he wishes to remain\nanonymous. I am extremely grateful to him for this contribution."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-358-361-dealing-with-conflict-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-358-361-dealing-with-conflict-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-358-361-dealing-with-conflict-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-riskvs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (363-365): Risk vs. exposure by Philip Gotthelf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Risk vs. exposure\nby Philip Gotthelf
Flip a coin. What are your chances of \""heads,\"" assuming a fair coin? The obvious answer is 50/50. The\nprobability of any event such as a coin flip is similar to the risk associated with an investment. In effect,\nrisk is a function of probability.
This concept has become increasingly misunderstood as new investment vehicles flood the market with\napocryphal labels of \""limited risk.\"" Are options really limited risk investments? What about limited risk\nfutures spreads or limited risk penny stocks?
All too often, we confuse the concept of risk—the probability of success or failure—with the concept of\nexposure— the amount of money at stake in a transaction. Thus, we hear a salesman say, \""Your risk is\nonly $1,000.\"" In reality, he is describing monetary exposure without giving consideration to the\nprobability of success or failure.
Suppose you buy a T-bond option that has absolutely no chance of being in-the-money. In other words,\nthe strike price is totally unrealistic. Under such circumstances, your risk would be 100%.
If we are to properly evaluate different investments using risk and exposure, we must understand how the\ntwo combine to provide an appropriate criteria for analysis.
Taken separately, proper money management dictates that we must never extend our exposure beyond\nour means—no matter how good the risk parameters may appear. In other words, an investor with\n$25,000 in risk capital should never assume a transaction that has a $100,000 exposure. Even at 90%\nchance for success, the exposure would exceed capacity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-363-365-risk-vs-exposure-by-philip-gotthelf-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-363-365-risk-vs-exposure-by-philip-gotthelf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-363-365-risk-vs-exposure-by-philip-gotthelf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-openran-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (366-368): Opening range breakout: early entry Part 2 by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Opening range breakout: early entry\nPart 2\nby Toby Crabel
Early entry is defined as a large price movement in one direction within the first five minutes after the\nopen of the daily session. A study of early entry is essentially a study of price action, and the type of price\naction that takes place on early entry shows that participants are urgent about entering the market. It is a\ndistinct recognition of either a profitable or dangerous situation.
It should be noted that directional moves of this nature are relatively rare and may occur only 10% of the\ntime. Most days (70% to 80%), prices exhibit rotation or choppy action and the first five to 10 minutes of\ntrading are sluggish and directionless without a clear movement away from the opening range.
The early entry price action is ideal when using an opening range breakout for entry. An opening range\nbreakout is a trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range. The open should\nact as one extreme of this range.
Two versions
I have observed two types of early entry. The characteristics of Type 1 (Figures 1 and 2) are as follows:\nThe first five minute time period has a larger range than normal. (\""Normal\"" is roughly defined as the\naverage of the preceding 10 days' first five-minute ranges.)
The opening of the day is on one extreme of the five-minute bar and the close of the five-minute bar is on\nthe opposite extreme. The second five minutes shows an equal thrust in the direction of the first\nfive-minute period."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-366-368-opening-range-breakout-early-entry-part-2-by-toby-crabel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-366-368-opening-range-breakout-early-entry-part-2-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-366-368-opening-range-breakout-early-entry-part-2-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-monthst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (369-371): The 40.68-month stock price cycle by Gertrude Shirk"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The 40.68-month stock price cycle\nby Gertrude Shirk
Of the thousands of possible rhythmic cycles in hundreds of subjects that the Foundation for the Study\nof Cycles has studied over the years, one we have reported on repeatedly since November 1951 is the\n40.68-month cycle in stock prices.
Cycle analysts were aware of a rhythm in stock market averages of about 40 to 41 months (from crest to\ncrest) for many, many years. Over a long period of time, this cycle was dominant enough to be visible by\ninspection of the data, before trend removal or any other manipulation came into use. The Foundation has\ntracked the history of this cycle since it was first defined, whether or not the market matched the ideal\nmodel.
The Foundation does not forecast stock prices based on our research, but we constantly bring any cycle\nup-to-date because an important part of our evaluation of the reality and significance of the cycle is the\ndegree to which it continues after it is found and defined. There is no standard test that I know of by\nwhich the statistical significance of the continuation after discovery can be measured. But it is certainly\ncommon sense to attach a high degree of significance to a cycle which continues to follow the extension\nof the average pattern of the past."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-369-371-the-40-68-month-stock-price-cycle-by-gertrude-shirk-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-369-371-the-40-68-month-stock-price-cycle-by-gertrude-shirk-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-369-371-the-40-68-month-stock-price-cycle-by-gertrude-shirk-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-blacksc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (372-376): Black-Scholes vs. Cox-Ross-Rubinstein By John W. Labuszewski and John E. Nyhoff"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Black-Scholes vs. Cox-Ross-Rubinstein\nBy John W. Labuszewski and John E. Nyhoff
Professors Fischer Black and Myron Scholes of the University of Chicago introduced, in 1973, what\nwas to become the most commonly cited option pricing model. This was a fortuitous beginning because it\nroughly coincided with the introduction of exchange-traded stock options on the Chicago Board of\nOptions Exchange (CBOE). A few years later, Professors John Cox, Stephen Ross and Mark Rubinstein\nintroduced another pricing model which now enjoys popularity second only to the Black-Scholes model.
Both models produce similar results because they are very similar. In fact, the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein\nmodel represents a logical precursor to the Black-Scholes model, despite the fact that the Black-Scholes\nmodel was introduced earlier in a chronological sense. In order to gain an intuitive understanding of the\nBlack-Scholes model, we will start by describing the concepts underlying the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein\nmodel.
Underlying price distribution
Assume that the price of bonds is at 100% of part. What is the fair-market value of a call struck at 100?\nIn order to address that question, let us review the concept of fair-market value:
The fair-market value of an option is the premium at which both buyer and seller expect to break\neven in a statistical sense, i.e., over a large number of trials."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-372-376-black-scholes-vs-cox-ross-rubinstein-by-john-w-labuszewski-and-john-e-nyhoff-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-372-376-black-scholes-vs-cox-ross-rubinstein-by-john-w-labuszewski-and-john-e-nyhoff-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-372-376-black-scholes-vs-cox-ross-rubinstein-by-john-w-labuszewski-and-john-e-nyhoff-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-volume-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (377-380): Volume as a proxy for time by Robert Pisani"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume as a proxy for time
There are numerous ways to display the market information contained in Market Structure charts. The\nstandard format consists of three parts (Figure 1): the Market Structure Histogram on the left side of the\nchart, volume at each price displayed in time sequence in the chart's center, and the total volume for each\ntime period on the bottom of the chart.
The market progresses simultaneously through two dimensions: time and volume. Thus, one can measure\nthe market's progress either by counting time or by counting transaction volume. Although the latter\nmeasurement is quite unusual, the logical justification for it is simple: ultimately, the structure of the\nmarket consists of the holdings and intentions of its participants. A transaction of 1,000 contracts or\nshares effects a change in the structure of market holdings. The size of this change is precisely 1,000\ncontracts. The economy progresses through change, and a transaction of 2,000 contracts effects a\nstructural change that is physically twice as large as a transaction of 1,000 contracts.
In relating time to volume, keep in mind that the units we use are arbitrary and irregular. The human\ndemarcations of time are the day, the week, the month, the quarter, the year and, perhaps, others. Certain\ntime periods (or \""atoms\"" which are the smallest unit by which we choose to measure time) are more\n\""natural\"" than others and market information related specifically to these time units has special\nsignificance. Similarly, there are demarcations of volume. One cannot directly purchase 0.3 contracts or\nwheat, odd lot trading of stock is not common anymore, and there are position limits imposed on certain\ntraded items."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-377-380-volume-as-a-proxy-for-time-by-robert-pisani-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-377-380-volume-as-a-proxy-for-time-by-robert-pisani-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-377-380-volume-as-a-proxy-for-time-by-robert-pisani-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-aiq-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (381-384): AIQ/Stock Expert Version 2.51 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""AIQ/Stock Expert\nVersion 2.51\nby John Sweeney
AIQ Systems, Inc,
916 Southwood Blvd., Suite 2C
Drawer 7530
Incline Village, NV 89450
(702) 831-2999
Product: Trading system for stocks
Price: $688
Equipment Required: IBM PS/2, PC, XT, AT or true compatible, 512K RAM minimum,\nIBM-compatible graphics printer, graphics board, Hayes or compatible modem. Hard disk and math\ncoprocessor strongly recommended.
Other Expenses: Price data service, either Hale Systems or Dow Jones News/Retrieval
Ratings:
Level of Analysis: Intermediate
Ease of Use: A
Documentation: A
Reliability: A
Disclosure: F (undisclosed)
Profitability: unknown
Overall: B
Here's a well-executed program that downloads data from the Hale or Dow Jones data services,\nmassages it into 12 familiar indicators and generates trading signals for your favorite stocks. Thrown in is\na small position (not portfolio) manager (Profit Manager) and a really nice graphics capability.
AIQ/Stock Expert is said to employ artificial intelligence in generating trading signals. We must, I think,\ntake that with some salt because none of the \""thinking\"" (i.e., the trading rules) are disclosed. While\nindicator formulas and examples are given, all you really need to know to use Stock Expert is what pops\nout as a buy/sell on the \""Action List.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-381-384-aiq-stock-expert-version-2-51-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-381-384-aiq-stock-expert-version-2-51-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-381-384-aiq-stock-expert-version-2-51-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-diagnos-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (385-388): Diagnosing market tops by Thomas Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Diagnosing market tops\nby Thomas Aspray
In the June 1988 issue of Stocks & Commodities, I discussed a few of the more than 250 indicators that I\nuse for stock market timing. I applied these indicators to some of the recent stock market bottoms. In this\narticle, I would like to show you how these indicators reacted at several market tops, including charts of\nthe current market. The formulas for these indicators were given in the previous article. Unfortunately,\nthe formula for the McClellan Oscillator was incorrect. The correct formula for the McClellan Oscillator\nis the difference between a 19-day exponential moving average of the net advance-decline and a 39-day\nexponential moving average of the net advance-decline.
1986 stock market
The charts in Figure 1 end on October 1,1986. There are two significant tops on this NYSE Composite\nIndex chart. The first occurs in early July 1986 (just after point 3) as the Dow Jones Industrial Average\n(DJIA) and NYSE declined 10% in about six weeks. The NYSE Composite had made a third higher high\nat point 3, in the 146 area. As the market was moving higher, the A/D line made three lower peaks at\npoints 1,2 and 3. This bearish divergence was indicated by the slope of lines A on the NYSE Composite\nand NYSEA/D Line charts.
Just prior to the highs at point 3, the A/D line violated an important support at line B, a very negative\nindication. The rebound in the A/D line was very weak as it fell well short of the highs at point 2. On the\nfirst sharp down day, this key support was violated with a vengeance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-385-388-diagnosing-market-tops-by-thomas-aspray-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-385-388-diagnosing-market-tops-by-thomas-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-385-388-diagnosing-market-tops-by-thomas-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-price-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (389-389): Price/dividends ratio by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price/dividends ratio\nby Arthur Merrill
An indicator that was shouting warnings before the stock market crash last year was the\nprice/dividends ratio. This indicator is a measure of expensiveness. It reports the current price of enough\nstock to yield $1 in dividends. It's the inverse of stock yield.
Note Figure 1 which is based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). All price swings of less than\n20% have been ignored, or filtered out. The price/dividends ratio was then calculated at each price\nturning point by dividing the DJIA by the dividends in the preceding four quarters. The chart extends\nback to the beginning of the DJIA dividend reports in 1929. (Unfortunately, the reports include stock\ndividends, so there may be some error from that practice.)
Note that the indicator corrects for inflation. Both the numerator and denominator of the ratio are in\ndollars, so the effect of inflation on the value of the dollar cancels out.
The curve also takes wide swings. Investors in 1932 were willing to part with their stock at a price less\nthan 10 times the dividends. Then there were years in which they had to pay more than 30 times the\ndividends."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-389-389-price-dividends-ratio-by-arthur-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-389-389-price-dividends-ratio-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-389-389-price-dividends-ratio-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-custom-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (390-394): Custom messages Part 10 by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Custom messages\nPart 10\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
Believe it or not, all the work we've done so far programming Lotus does not complete the Directional\nMovement Index system (DMI). We also must include message modules — the only way some correct\nsignals can come from your computer.
For example, virtually every commentator says crossing DI14 lines is the trading signal. Actually, DMI\ndeveloper J. Welles Wilder notes that this is only the first indication a trade should be considered. Before\nentering a trade, several other criteria must be met. The ADX line — the one which indicates the\nexistence of a trend—must be in a well-defined relationship with the DI14 lines, otherwise the signal is to\nbe ignored.
Another example is the whipsaw problem. Wilder developed the Extreme Point Rule which gives a\nspecific price at which to ignore crossing lines that are signaling an exit or reversal. If the extreme point\nis not hit, don't get out or reverse position.
When an important criterion cannot be graphed, the limits of a charting program have been reached —\nbesides which I do not enjoy staring intently at little blips on bar charts or squiggles in lines. Fortunately,\nputting in message modules is quick and, as you will see, also can aid in debugging."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-390-394-custom-messages-part-10-by-jim-summers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-390-394-custom-messages-part-10-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-390-394-custom-messages-part-10-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c10-tragic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:10 (395-396): The tragic neglect of the old masters by James Alphier"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The tragic neglect of the old masters\nby James Alphier
I still become physically queasy when I recall my shock and surprise as I read a short article written by\nJames Dines some years ago. In it, he related how he had asked an assemblage of Market Technicians\nAssociation members how many of them had read anything written by the \""founding fathers\"" of technical\nanalysis. Only a handful gave a positive response.
The same feeling returned almost four years ago when I became involved in a rather complex discussion\nwith three MTA members. I referred to concepts originated by Garfield Drew and Paul Dysart and\nsuddenly got blank looks. One person \""thought\"" he \""might have heard Drew's name.\"" Fortunately, I\nretained enough tact not to state my real opinion: that not being familiar with these names was\ntantamount to, say, an economist not knowing who Marx and Keynes were.
And, finally, this same physical despondency recurred just a month ago when one of the largest\ninvestment book dealers specializing in out-of-print items closed its doors. I went down there and spent a\ngreat deal more than I probably should have, compelled by the thought that I wouldn't have many more\nchances to buy some of these old, great works that I hadn't already obtained.
To me, having read and experimented with everything I could that related to technical analysis for the\npast 30 years, the smug, placid neglect of the old works in our field — a neglect that sometimes crosses\nthe border into scorn — is incomprehensible. The fact is that, with too few exceptions, these \""old\nmasters\"" almost page for page had more overall knowledge, far better \""feel\"" and understanding of the\ndata, superior mastery of basic concepts, and a far wider imagination than current technicians (including\nmyself). Working without computers or even hand-held calculators, they somehow had insights that\ntoday have been lost, simplified to elementary gloss or just plain grossly distorted."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-395-396-the-tragic-neglect-of-the-old-masters-by-james-alphier-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-395-396-the-tragic-neglect-of-the-old-masters-by-james-alphier-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-10-395-396-the-tragic-neglect-of-the-old-masters-by-james-alphier-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-qscans-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (401-404): Quick-Scans"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick Scans: Fight the IRS and Win, Technical Indicator Series, Fastback, Dynacomp, LiveWire, Xpress Executive, Captool. Wave Trader Time and Price Analysis, CompuTrac Link, Cyclic Analysis in Futures.
QUICK-SCANS
FIGHT THE IRS AND WIN
by Cliff Robertson
Going Public
by Martin Weiss
TAB Books, Inc.
Blue Ridge Summit,
PA 17294-0214
Price: $12.95 each
Why in the world would we mention these books here? Well, we do it because it seems every trader we\ntalk to is also involved with a second sideline business and the IRS.
The IRS can get touchy at times (especially for those of you trying to qualify tax straddles), so a working\nknowledge of what you can handle on your own and when to call a tax practitioner is useful. That's the\nbenefit of Fight the IRS. In 140 pages plus a bunch of copies of IRS forms in the back, Mr. Robertson\noutlines the nuts and bolts of defending yourself. This is not a full, do-it-yourself tax guide. It's an\nexplanation of what's happening on a fairly simple level—not nitty-gritty section citations. Buy it for that\nif the educational value strikes you"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-401-404-quick-scans-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-401-404-quick-scans-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-401-404-quick-scans-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-before-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (405-407): Before the chartbook by Raymond J. Kaider"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Before the chartbook\nby Raymond J. Kaider
To the active trader of futures and futures options, sitting down in front of a chartbook or computer for\na round of technical analysis can be a most promising endeavor. The fact is, though, that the average\nsmall speculator is consistently whipped by the market. This is never more true than when the small\nspeculator ventures into trading options. This consistency must be one of our nation's leading causes of\npremature hair loss.
The purpose of this article is to share with the reader some of my observations as to why \""the best laid\nplans\"" often go astray. The ideas expressed are experientially based and meant to give a different\nperspective in viewing the futures markets, especially options. The validity and importance of technical\nanalysis is unquestioned. A book could be filled simply by enumerating all of the legitimate\ntrend-following and trend-fading systems that have made their way into the public eye. No doubt many\nmore will follow.
But the methodology or technical system used to make trading choices is only half of the picture.\nOftentimes a trade by the small speculator may be doomed before the order reaches the pit. In an attempt\nto show the other half of the picture, the possible reasons (other than technical) for the failure of a trade, I\npoint to three general areas: the role of the broker, the mechanics of the marketplace and human nature."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-405-407-before-the-chartbook-by-raymond-j-kaider-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-405-407-before-the-chartbook-by-raymond-j-kaider-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-405-407-before-the-chartbook-by-raymond-j-kaider-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-industr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (408-410): Technical analysis of industry groups by Richard K. Carlin, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical analysis of industry groups\nby Richard K. Carlin, Ph.D.
Stock market analysis is usually done in one of two ways: either on the market itself to predict whether\nstocks as a group are in an uptrend or downtrend, or on individual stocks to discover undervalued issues.\nNo one, however, has consistently outperformed the market using these two approaches. Why? The one\nthing in common to both strategies is diversification of the investment portfolio.
Since the market is nothing more than an average return on many stocks, it acts like a diversified\nportfolio. Thus, no matter which investment approach you use, the more diversified your portfolio, the\nmore it will act like the stock market over a long period of time.
There is a third type of analysis which can outperform the general market and still provide you with a\ndiversified portfolio — industry group analysis.
Each industry group index is a composite of many individual stocks and thus acts like a separate,\nminiature stock market. Because industry-related stocks tend to move together, there is always a bull\nmarket in some industry group regardless of what the general market may be doing. For example, during\n1973-74, the market fell about 50% yet gold stocks continued to hit new heights. By diversifying a\nportfolio within an industry group, you may not outperform the industry index, but you may significantly\noutperform the market as a whole.
If a stock is not in an industry group you can compare it to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. You might\nalso compare indices made up of each group of stocks, but here I want to focus on five indicators helpful\nwith industry group analysis: Advance-Decline Line, High-Low Index, Overbought-Oversold Indicator,\nDiffusion Index and Absolute Breadth Index."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-408-410-technical-analysis-of-industry-groups-by-richard-k-carlin-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-408-410-technical-analysis-of-industry-groups-by-richard-k-carlin-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-408-410-technical-analysis-of-industry-groups-by-richard-k-carlin-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-dealing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (411-414): Dealing with conflict Part 2 by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dealing with conflict\nPart 2\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
\""I have an elaborate computer system, on-line market quotes direct from the major exchanges, and a\nprogram that gives me distinct buy-sell signals. I know that if I followed those signals, I'd make money.\nBut I don't. I just sit there and do nothing. What's the matter?\""
This is an all-too-common complaint from traders. They've spent thousands of dollars studying the\nmarket and developing a system that works, but they can't pull the trigger. Yet it is only one of many\nsymptoms of conflict that traders experience. Other symptoms include:
• You make just so much money, say $50,000 or $100,000, and then fall apart. Traders with this\nsymptom do well until the ceiling is reached and then they either stop trading or fall apart.
• You experience excessive stress. You have trouble sleeping. You worry excessively about positions\nto the point that you can't think of anything else, even though the risk may be moderate compared\nto positions you have comfortably taken in the past.
• You are preoccupied and forget about open positions you have and lose thousands of dollars as a\nresult."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-411-414-dealing-with-conflict-part-2-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-411-414-dealing-with-conflict-part-2-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-411-414-dealing-with-conflict-part-2-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-cycles-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (415-415): Cycles by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cycles\nby Arthur Merrill
The market certainly moves in waves. Is there regularity in these cyclical waves that can give us useful\nclues to the future?
Any curve can be approximated by adding together a number of sine waves, each with a different period\nand amplitude (Figure 1). The component curves can be calculated by Fourier analysis.
In one study made by Gertrude Shirk of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, the most important\nunderlying cycles ranked by amplitude at the crest were:
All of these cycles, with the exception of the 46-year cycle, were found to have statistical significance. I\nhave found that cycles based on the calendar can be useful. In the week, Monday tends to be a declining\nday and Friday a rising day. In the monthly cycle, the first three days of the month have a significantly\nbullish record.
A calendar cycle that is currently interesting is the four-year presidential cycle. I've checked back through\n24 presidential terms, all of the way back to 1886. There was considerable variation, but the average is\nshown in Figure 2. In this chart, the four-year term is divided into 16 three-month periods. The percent\nchange in each period was calculated and averaged. The changes were then corrected for trend.
Note the election year. Prices tended downward, on the average, in the first six months but zoomed up in\nthe second half. After the election, prices averaged downward for a year and a half, reaching the trough in\nthe middle of the second year after the election."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-415-415-cycles-by-arthur-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-415-415-cycles-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-415-415-cycles-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-pattern-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (416-421): Patterns that detect stock market reversals by Bill Ohama and Melanie Bowman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Patterns that detect stock market reversals\nby Bill Ohama and Melanie Bowman
Full-speed ahead on its maiden voyage and presumably protected against disaster, the Titanic sank in\nthe chilly North Atlantic Ocean, shattered by an undetected iceberg. In the stock market, another kind of\niceberg awaits at every major market top and has carried unsuspecting traders to similar ruin at least a\nhalf dozen times in the past 22 years.
When I noticed this phenomenon in the fall of 1965, after studying the records of the Dow Jones\nIndustrial Average (DJIA) May 1965 major top and June 1965 low, I coined it the Titanic Syndrome. A\nclose friend, a graduate of Caltech, told me at the time that the odds against the Titanic Syndrome\nrepeating itself again and again were astronomical. Since then, it has proven itself to be a consistently\naccurate warning of every all-time high.
The Titanic Syndrome is deceptively simple. Two statistics, printed daily in the financial press, tell you\nwhether the iceberg will wreak disaster. You know you are on board the Titanic when the DJIA hits an\nall-time high for the year or rallies 400 points and—within seven trading days, before or after this DJIA\nhigh—the number of yearly lows on the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYSE) exceeds\nthe number of yearly highs. (The NYSE defines yearly as the past 52 weeks.)
This excess of NYSE lows is the iceberg that presents grave danger to any trader who blindly believes the\nnew DJIA high, based on 30 industrial stocks, will lead to higher prices throughout the market. After the\nTitanic Syndrome has appeared, the DJIA may rally slightly above its top, but the other averages,\nespecially the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA), do not make new highs. It is all but certain these\naverages and indices are peaking and ready to drop."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-416-421-patterns-that-detect-stock-market-reversals-by-bill-ohama-and-melanie-bowman-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-416-421-patterns-that-detect-stock-market-reversals-by-bill-ohama-and-melanie-bowman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-416-421-patterns-that-detect-stock-market-reversals-by-bill-ohama-and-melanie-bowman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-mrktpro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (422-424): Market Profile/Liquidity Data Bank: A procedural outline by Donald L. Jones"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Profile/Liquidity Data Bank: A\nprocedural outline\nby Donald L. Jones
The Chicago Board of Trade's Market Profile/Liquidity Data Bank report is an unparalleled source of\nmarket- generated information. Each price traded during the day is identified by its associated volume,\nthe class of trader doing the trading and the time period in which the trading took a place at that price.\nFor the analyst, who for years has had to make do with daily summary data (open, high, low, close,\nvolume and open interest), the Market Profile/Liquidity Data Bank provides almost an embarrassment of\nriches.
The data, developed for and utilized by the theory of auction markets, allow more in-depth technical\nanalysis than ever before possible. The theory, itself, is new, dating from the 1984 Chicago Board of\nTrade (CBOT) Manual.
Reference materials on the Market Profile/Liquidity Data Bank are limited. There are three publications\nby J. Peter Steidlmayer and co-authors, two on-going research reports, and seminars, mostly of the long\nweekend variety.
Through Commodity Information Service's (CISCO) contact with many users of the Market Profile, we\nhave found a real desire and need for guidance in the application of auction market theory. What follows\nis an outline of the procedure for using Market Profile information. Although abbreviated, it identifies\nand covers all the major tasks required to use this data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-422-424-market-profile-liquidity-data-bank-a-procedural-outline-by-donald-l-jones-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-422-424-market-profile-liquidity-data-bank-a-procedural-outline-by-donald-l-jones-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-422-424-market-profile-liquidity-data-bank-a-procedural-outline-by-donald-l-jones-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-optionv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (425-428): Option Valuation Model by Steve Barr"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Valuation Model\nby Steve Barr
Radix Research Limited
1652 Mount Batten Pl.
Victoria, B.C., Canada V8S 5J9
(604)592-5308.
Product: Stock options evaluation program.
Price: $250 Canadian.
Equipment: IBM PC/XT/AT
Have you ever bought a cheap out-of-the-money call, say for 10 cents and watched it tank, slowly, so\nslowly, until it was worth nothing? Sure, the initial logic (you did use logic didn't you?) said that 10 cents\nfor the contract was \""all\"" you could lose. But that turned out to be the entire capital invested: 100% down\nthe drain. Was that contract so cheap? I started playing the options market that way, sometimes doubling\nmy investment, and just as often giving back a substantial amount on the next trade.
How would you like to be able to evaluate option premiums in a more objective manner? You better\nbelieve the floor specialists use more than a guessing game! On-floor computers keep them informed of\nhow any given change in the underlying security price will change the value of the different option strike\nprices and expiry dates.
By using an accepted options evaluation formula you will, although not guaranteed profits, be able to tilt\nthe odds more in your favor, by knowing more about how the floor traders at the center of the action are\nthinking."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-425-428-option-valuation-model-by-steve-barr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-425-428-option-valuation-model-by-steve-barr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-425-428-option-valuation-model-by-steve-barr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-halfday-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (429-431): Half-day trading techniques Part 3 by Kent Calhoun"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Half-day trading techniques\nPart 3\nby Kent Calhoun
In volatile markets, profits increase with the price range, but so does the risk. In strong trending\nmarkets, traders will be more profitable not using profit exit points described in the September issue of\nStocks & Commodities, but either exiting day trades on the close, or holding an overnight position using a\ntrailing stop as protection.
This is particularly true when going into the close on a day that has wide price range, heavy volume, a\nstrong close above the open and mid-range, and a close above the previous day's high. In more than 70%\nof the cases in which all of these conditions are met, the next day's opening price is higher.
Critical time periods
The value of time is critical during day-trading because there is less of it. Day-traders should be focused\non their markets, noting the price velocity and volume on rallies and declines since each market has its\nown specific characteristics:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-429-431-half-day-trading-techniques-part-3-by-kent-calhoun-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-429-431-half-day-trading-techniques-part-3-by-kent-calhoun-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-429-431-half-day-trading-techniques-part-3-by-kent-calhoun-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-putinde-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (432-433): {Put}, @Index vs. Copy by A.O.T. Fayiga, M.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""{Put}, @Index vs. Copy\nby A.O.T. Fayiga, M.D.
When writing macros in Lotus 1-2-3, one always tries to find the programming method that runs the\nfastest. But complexity is not synonymous with speed. Sometimes, using {Put}, @Index, and {For} loops\nsaves you a lot of time, but when the formula you are using is fixed, you will find that a macro using the\nCopy command runs much faster.
As an exercise, we can use the recent series of S&C articles by Jim Summers that developed Lotus\nprogramming for J. Welles Wilder's true range (TR1) and Directional Movement Index (DMI). (The\ncolumn described static and dynamic loops using {Put} and @Index commands in the July 1988 issue.)
Using the Copy command and range names, the macro in Figure 1 runs about six times faster than a\ncomplicated {Put}, @Index and {For} loop which serves you best when you have a truly dynamic macro\nin which the contents of lines are changing as the loop executes.
To try the Copy method, make a copy of the TR1 file developed in Summers' columns and give it a\ndifferent name (I call mine MYTR1 .WK 1). Delete the range names Process, Ctr0, Ctr1 and Ctr3 that\nyou will not be using in this method and assign the range names in Figure 2.
Erase the current lines in macro \\x and enter the macro shown in Figure 1. Then enter the following\nformulas in the designated cells. Below each formula, I have described what you should see in the control\npanel after pressing Edit, but just with your cell-pointer in each of these cells, you see how you are\ncalculating the TR1, +DMI and -DMI. Nested @If commands are used in F242 and G242. The F242\nformula is the +DMI on an up-day/outside up-day. G242 is the -DMI on a down-day/outside down day:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-432-433-put-index-vs-copy-by-a-o-t-fayiga-m-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-432-433-put-index-vs-copy-by-a-o-t-fayiga-m-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-432-433-put-index-vs-copy-by-a-o-t-fayiga-m-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c11-whosaid-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:11 (434-435): Who said greed is dead? by Ana Marie Wilson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Who said greed is dead?\nby Ana Marie Wilson
For the past two years I have been a dedicated student of the stock market and a voracious reader of a\ngreat number of financial publications. I was determined to become a thoroughly sophisticated investor\nand I knew that information was the key.
I designed a reading regimen that would help me achieve my goal and quickly learned to avoid the traps.\nYou see, these fine publications, along with their erudite articles, carry an endless string of\nadvertisements whose implied message is that if you buy their product, whatever that may be, your future\nfinancial independence is virtually assured.
Ha! Let the poor uninformed soul fall for that. Certainly not me. I'd read every article with the intensity of\nsomeone doing a doctoral dissertation on whatever the subject happened to be at that moment, and\nignored all the rest. \""Reason and cogitation above groping greed\"" was my motto. When it came to\nfinancial matters I had achieved the power of information and control. I felt secretly superior. It felt good.
Frankly, I don't know how or when the metamorphosis took place. All I can now conclude is that for all\nmy intellectual bravado, Rambo Greed, who had been lurking in the background with a smirk on his face\nknowing that it was just a question of time, suddenly took over, crushed what was left of my severely\neroded willpower and switched all systems to the greed mode. Enough of this slow and steady stuff."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-434-435-who-said-greed-is-dead-by-ana-marie-wilson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-434-435-who-said-greed-is-dead-by-ana-marie-wilson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-11-434-435-who-said-greed-is-dead-by-ana-marie-wilson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c12-surviva-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:12 (443-447): Survival strategies for exchanges by Dr. Robert A. Wood"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Survival strategies for exchanges\nby Dr. Robert A. Wood
The rate of change in the structure of capital markets appears to be accelerating. Some forces affecting\nchange are the evolution of futures and options markets, computerized trading which permits professional\ninvestors to focus liquidity demands of essentially unlimited size on exchanges instantly, trading\nstrategies such as portfolio insurance, index arbitrage and \""hot money\"" strategies which result in immense\nliquidity demands being placed on exchanges within very short time frames, upstairs block trades and,\nmore recently, basket trades utilizing the Designated Order Turnaround (DOT) system for submitting\ncomputerized orders to the specialists.
Capital formation is the basic economic force which drives exchanges. Financial executives and others\ninvolved in the business of capital formation ought to be periodically asking, \""Where should a particular\nstock be traded so as to minimize its firm's cost of capital?\"" Assuming the financial intermediation\nprocess is functioning properly, the resolution of where to trade will determine the survival of exchanges.\nThe stresses created by the rapidity of structural changes, exacerbated by the stock market break of\nOctober 19, 1987, threaten the survival of exchanges as presently constituted.
This article focuses on three important aspects of the changing nature of capital markets. First, the rapid\nincrease in liquidity demands by market participants and the associated changes in market behavior,\nSecond, recent public attitudes toward futures and options markets and the implication of these attitudes\nfor exchange survival, as well as potential solutions for these problems. Finally, the implication of\nallegations appearing in the press that markets are being manipulated through the use of basket trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-443-447-survival-strategies-for-exchanges-by-dr-robert-a-wood-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-443-447-survival-strategies-for-exchanges-by-dr-robert-a-wood-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-443-447-survival-strategies-for-exchanges-by-dr-robert-a-wood-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c12-mktprof-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:12 (448-449): Market Profile Part 5 by Thomas P. Drinka, Stephen M. Ptasienski and Robby L. Humes"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Profile\nPart 5\nby Thomas P. Drinka, Stephen M. Ptasienski and Robby L. Humes
To make the information from the Chicago Board of Trade's Market Profile and Liquidity Data Bank\nreports more useful to traders, we have tabulated time-and-sales as well as volume data on 12 futures\nmarkets to determine what could be considered \""typical\"" behavior.
We analyzed 38 contracts (Figure 1) between February 1 and April 22, 1988 — a relatively brief period\nwhich means that the volatility and trader participation may not reflect long-term measures. Rather, these\nare the type of analyses that Market Profile traders should conduct on a day-to-day basis. This way, when\nthe market becomes more or less volatile, hard data will show it — and your \""feel\"" for market activity\nwill be backed up by facts.
Day structure
J. Peter Steidlmayer, who formulated the Market Profile/Liquidity Data Bank information service, has\nobserved the market over many years and identified six types of day structure (see Stocks &\nCommodities, December 1987). Generally, in futures markets, he has found that non-trend days account\nfor 5% of the trading sessions, normal and normal variation days together account for 80% of the trading\nsessions, trend days occur 5% to 10% of the time, neutral days 8% and running profile days 2%.
In our three-month period of analysis (Figure 2), some of the futures markets, especially CBOT corn,\nconfirmed Steidlmayer's observations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-448-449-market-profile-part-5-by-thomas-p-drinka-stephen-m-ptasienski-and-robby-l-humes-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-448-449-market-profile-part-5-by-thomas-p-drinka-stephen-m-ptasienski-and-robby-l-humes-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-448-449-market-profile-part-5-by-thomas-p-drinka-stephen-m-ptasienski-and-robby-l-humes-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c12-dmi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:12 (451-455): DMI trading rules by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""DMI trading rules\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
In this issue, we start programming into Lotus 1-2-3 the trading rules used in J. Welles Wilder's\nDirectional Movement Index (DMI) system. In the previous columns, we programmed the various\nmathematical components of the system and now, with the tedious part behind us, the fun begins!
Knowing the trading rules and testing the results—and programming forces you to know the rules—is\nwhat gives you an advantage over shoot-from-the-hip traders. If you can't specify your trading rules\nclearly enough to test them, then why delude yourself into thinking you trade on the basis of rules?
I chose Wilder's DMI system for development in Lotus because important rules could not be observed\neasily on graphs. In addition, research suggested that several of Wilder's rules go beyond what many\nusers of the DMI system incorporate into their testing (and presumably, incorporate into their trading). I\nwanted to show the system fairly. Let's define the rules."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-451-455-dmi-trading-rules-by-jim-summers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-451-455-dmi-trading-rules-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-451-455-dmi-trading-rules-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c12-pricepa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:12 (457-461): Price path: a new volatility measure by Joanne Hill, Ph.D. and Matthew Celebuski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price path: a new volatility measure\nby Joanne Hill, Ph.D. and Matthew Celebuski
Many trading strategies rely on market levels or changes in those levels for allocation among asset\nclasses. In an option replication program, such as portfolio insurance, the option cost is paid throughout\nthe life of the program. Frequently, the estimated costs differ significantly from the actual cost even when\nanticipated volatility estimates are realized.
An important reason for this discrepancy is that the order of the returns impacts the cost of an option\nreplication program but has no impact on the price of the option itself. That is, implied volatility may be\ncorrectly estimated, but the sequence of price changes, or \""price path,\"" may signal trades more often than\nhistorical volatility would suggest. Clearly, a volatility measure which focuses on the order of returns\nwould lead to a better understanding of the costs associated with these types of strategies.
Here, we introduce two possible measures that capture the order of returns for a particular time period\nwithin a process that could generally be described as a random walk. In the short-run, a random walk\nprocess can have a variety of return sequences, all having the same measured standard deviation, but also\nhaving different dynamic trading strategy costs."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-457-461-price-path-a-new-volatility-measure-by-joanne-hill-ph-d-and-matthew-celebuski-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-457-461-price-path-a-new-volatility-measure-by-joanne-hill-ph-d-and-matthew-celebuski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-457-461-price-path-a-new-volatility-measure-by-joanne-hill-ph-d-and-matthew-celebuski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c12-opening-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:12 (462-465): Opening Range Breakout Part 3 by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Opening Range Breakout\nPart 3\nby Toby Crabel
In the opening range breakout technique, the heralds of an upcoming trend day are often inside days,\nnarrow range days and hook days (see Stocks & Commodities, September and October 1988). I also have\nrun across a new concept that categorizes price action and generally produces trending activity the next\nday.
I call it Doji Lines. Doji is a Japanese word describing a comparison between the open and the close of\nthe daily session. It is described in a book, The Japanese Chart of Charts by Seiki Shimizu.
A Doji Line is a day that shows a very small difference between the open and closing prices (Figure 1).\n\""Very small\"" is a relative term but, through observation, I have attached quantities to this open-to-close\ndifference to meet the need for definition.
In Figure 1, the left-hand bar is what a Doji Line looks like on a vertical bar chart; the right-hand bar is\nhow it is displayed by Shimizu. In this case, the close was less than the open, so the open-to-close range\nis displayed in black. If the close had been above the open, the box would have been clear.
Figure 2 displays the Doji with a hypothetically defined narrow range day at point \""a.\"" We'll define\nnarrow range day in a moment, but for now suffice it to say that the action following point \""a\"" represents\na trend day."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-462-465-opening-range-breakout-part-3-by-toby-crabel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-462-465-opening-range-breakout-part-3-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-462-465-opening-range-breakout-part-3-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c12-playing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:12 (470-471): Playing the \""somewhats\"" by Len Yate"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Playing the \""somewhats\""\nby Len Yates
Tired of waiting for the market to do something significant and you want to steer clear of naked\nwriting? This article describes a way to play what I call the \""somewhats\"" — times when you expect the\nmarket to go somewhat higher or somewhat lower.
There is a very good strategy to apply in times like this. It's called a \""credit spread\"" or \""vertical credit\nspread,\"" and it has two distinct advantages: You can profit handsomely from a modest change in the\nunderlying security and, if you choose out-of-the-money options, time is on your side. While you're\nwaiting for the move you expect from the underlying security, the natural time decay of options is\nworking in your favor.
A credit spread is created when you sell options and simultaneously buy the same quantity of options in\nthe same expiration month, but farther out-of-the-money. Because you are selling options that have a\nhigher price than the ones you are buying, the result is a net credit to your account, hence the name credit\nspread.
The brokerage requirement for a credit spread is equal to the difference in strike prices times 100. For\nexample, if you put on a 5-point credit spread, the requirement would be $500. However, the proceeds of\nputting on the position help to offset this requirement, with the result that a credit spread is a relatively\ncheap strategy to implement."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-470-471-playing-the-somewhats-by-len-yate-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-470-471-playing-the-somewhats-by-len-yate-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-470-471-playing-the-somewhats-by-len-yate-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c12-swing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:12 (472-473): Swing Expectations by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Swing Expectations\nby Arthur A. Merrill
Market moves are plagued by the \""noise\"" of short-term vibrations. I've found it useful to clean up the\nmoves by using a simple 5% filter for the market averages and a 10% filter for individual stocks. All\nswings of less than the specified percentage are ignored as in Figure 1, which charts recent moves of the\nDow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This chart is quite similar to the point-and-figure method, which\nalso ignores all moves of less than a specified number of points.
To make the filter apply equally to rising and declining moves, 100% is always taken as the low point of\na swing. For example, a rise from 100 to 130 is a 30% swing; a decline from 130 to 100 is comparable\nand is called a 30% swing, although it is only a 23% decline.
I have found that the direction of a swing, after it has; qualified as more than a \""blip\"" on a chart, is a\nuseful market indicator because these swings tend to continue.
We can use the viewpoint and methods of actuarial mathematics and calculate the \""life expectancy\"" of a\nswing, based on experience. Actuarially, a 23-year-old person can, on the average, expect to see 50 more\nyears. A 37-year-old person is half way through a statistical life expectancy, and can expect to live\nanother 37 years. A person of 70 can expect another 12 years.
If a DJIA swing has carried on past the 5% filter to a swing of 7%, what is its life expectancy? How\nmuch further, on the average, can we expect it to continue, before a recognizable (more than 5%)\nreversal?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-472-473-swing-expectations-by-arthur-a-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-472-473-swing-expectations-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-12-472-473-swing-expectations-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-pelleti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (46-50): Pelletier on PDI"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pelletier on PDI
Bob Pelletier is a distant but favorite figure to us at Stocks & Commodities. He's distant, residing in\nFlorida while we are in Seattle. He's a favorite because for years he has supplied us with data and\nsoftware for trading.
We've watched CSI grow from a small package that could run on Apples and Commodore 64's to a\nfull-service data vendor for major institutions. To us the interesting thing was that Bob himself, with the\nhelp of a band of programmers, was constantly developing new indicators and technical trading tools. His monthly newsletter often read like a trader's instruction manual.
This creativity seems to have reached its apogee when Bob's indicator, PDI (Probable Direction\nIndicator), was published. Then version II was published, then version III. These, together with CSI Stop\nand CSI Trend, were proprietary indicators that Bob made available as an add-on product to the data\nservice. Their distinctive feature was the use of probabilistic estimates of future price behavior. The\nprobabilities used were gathered from the time series itself, not an arbitrary \""parameter. \"" An added\nlevel of sophistication was that the weighting accorded to any one estimate was adjusted as it performed\n— or failed to perform — well.
PDI itself acts like an extraordinarily sensitive overbought/oversold indicator (Figure 1), one which\nsometimes catches major moves well and other times bounces both with and against trends.
None of this material is disclosed so that you or I can learn from it or study it. You must play with it long\nenough to learn what the indicator is saying. However, the little that was disclosed persistently piqued\nour interest. We called Bob determined to pry all we could out of him. Here's the result."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-46-50-pelletier-on-pdi-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-46-50-pelletier-on-pdi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-46-50-pelletier-on-pdi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-trdngew-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (51-54): Trading with Elliott Wave and Gann by David Lamarr"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading with Elliott Wave and Gann\nby David Lamarr
Wave confusion. This is the best way to describe my introduction to the Elliott Wave Principle more\nthan four years ago. I read the books, started keeping an hourly chart updated by hand and had reasonable\nexpectations as to the results of my interpretive skills. Initially, I was able to readily identify bottoms and\ntops several days after their occurrence and be whipsawed whenever I thought I precisely knew what the\nwave count was.
I slowly improved my wave count skills to the point that when I identified a particular wave count, it was\nusually correct. The problem still was determining how to label many of the waves.
Elliott waves provide price targets based on the ratios of .618, .5, .382 and, more recently, .236. These\nprice targets are helpful but difficult to trade with a strong sense of certainty. I discovered the Elliott\nwave analysis is highly dependent on the individual's ability to recognize and identify \""price patterns.\""\nOne strong point of Elliott wave analysis is that it does let you know when you're wrong—i.e., when a\nparticular retracement is penetrated look for support at the next retracement level.
Intellectually, it's relatively easy to develop a trading strategy. If a .382 retracement appears to halt\ndownward price movement, then buy. If this level is penetrated, exit the position quickly. Repeat the\nprocess with a .5 retracement. If necessary, repeat with a .618 retracement. The two losses will be small\nand the third trade should provide good profits that more than cover the first two losses. Emotionally,\nthough, I feel this is unworkable for the majority of traders, including myself."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-51-54-trading-with-elliott-wave-and-gann-by-david-lamarr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-51-54-trading-with-elliott-wave-and-gann-by-david-lamarr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-51-54-trading-with-elliott-wave-and-gann-by-david-lamarr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-wave-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (55-58): Wave Market Analysis Part I by Bryce T. Gilmore"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wave Market Analysis\nPart I\nby Bryce T. Gilmore
As Perry J. Kaufman says in his book Commodity Trading Systems and Methods: \""Speculation is a\nsophisticated business, and to be successful at it you must make it your business. To compete with a\nprofessional speculator you must anticipate the next move better or be more accurate in predicting prices\nfrom current news—not the one printed in today's newspaper but the one that has yet to be published.
\""Pattern recognition over short intervals is a study of behavioral science. Within the commodities\nmarkets speculators and commercial traders will react in a similar manner over and over again given\nsimilar circumstances. After many years these patterns may vary or become more complex, but they exist\nand can be used to anticipate subsequent price moves. The exclusive use of patterns will divorce you\nfrom any long-term supply-and-demand factors, since the short-term move may be contrary to the\nultimate direction of prices.\""
My philosophy for trading relies on these words of wisdom. To be successful we must study the past and\ndetermine which patterns were reliable in most cases to cause a reaction or complete change of trend to\nthe prices of a particular option."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-55-58-wave-market-analysis-part-i-by-bryce-t-gilmore-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-55-58-wave-market-analysis-part-i-by-bryce-t-gilmore-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-55-58-wave-market-analysis-part-i-by-bryce-t-gilmore-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-mktprot-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (59-61): Market Profile and trends Part 3 by Thomas Drinka, Ph.D. and Robert L. McNutt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Profile and trends\nPart 3\nby Thomas Drinka, Ph.D. and Robert L. McNutt
The key to market opportunity is knowing when current market price diverges from value and being\nable to judge whether price will move to value or value to price. A divergence of price and value can\noccur during the trading session-as well as over many days-and may generate a trend.
Trends can be used to evaluate the speed at which the market is moving through time and, knowing the\nmarket's speed, even a trader far from the pits can judge the amount of response time for trading.
There are three types of trends, each defined by their timespan. As the market-in attempting to facilitate\ntrade-seeks the activity of market participants through the use of price probes, the current price may\ndiverge from value. Then, one of two occurrences results: Either market participants reject the divergent\nprice and price returns to value or market participants accept the price as fair and value is generated at\nnew price levels by attracting volume.
In the first case, the divergence results in a price trend-a price movement that occurs during only one\nhalf-hour time period. In the second case, the divergence results in a value trend-a price movement that\noccurs during two half-hour time periods. As price moves through time and attracts volume, the price\nmovement slows and this suggests a continuation of the trend."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-59-61-market-profile-and-trends-part-3-by-thomas-drinka-ph-d-and-robert-l-mcnutt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-59-61-market-profile-and-trends-part-3-by-thomas-drinka-ph-d-and-robert-l-mcnutt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-59-61-market-profile-and-trends-part-3-by-thomas-drinka-ph-d-and-robert-l-mcnutt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-night-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (62-64): Night trading: the impact on technical charts by Heidi Schmidt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Night trading: the impact on technical charts\nby Heidi Schmidt
The new night trading session at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is causing worry among\ntechnical chartists. Should technical analysts adopt the new child at first sight and incorporate the data\ninto their painstakingly kept charts and indicators? What if the session is declared a flop and halted —\nwill pristine charts be forever blemished?
Chartists have two choices: incorporate the new session into the daily trading range and merely continue\ntheir current charts or keep two sets of charts until the success/impact of the new night session is better\nunderstood (Figure 1). The following examination of the new night session may help clarify which path\nis best to take.
Beginning on April 30, 1987, T-bond and T-note futures and options started to trade during a night\nsession running from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. Central time. CBOT defines the daily trading session as starting\nwith the previous night's session. The last trade if the night session is termed the \""suspension\"" of trading.
The next morning, the \""resumption\"" of trading occurs with the usual trading hours, 8 a.m. to 2 p.m.\nCentral time, and finishes the session. The day's close is still calculated at 2 p.m., but the daily high and\nlow take into account the previous evening's activity. Originally, there was no night trading conducted on\nSunday evenings, and Monday had no night trading incorporated into its trading ranges. However, based\non the initial success of the night sessions, Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Sunday\nnight sessions beginning on September 13, 1987."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-62-64-night-trading-the-impact-on-technical-charts-by-heidi-schmidt-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-62-64-night-trading-the-impact-on-technical-charts-by-heidi-schmidt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-62-64-night-trading-the-impact-on-technical-charts-by-heidi-schmidt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-spike-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (65-66): Spike protection by John McCormick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spike protection\nby John McCormick
You've just spent four hours perfecting the spreadsheet that conveys an idea which blossomed\nfull-blown in your imagination at 1 a.m. You know that you would never again be able to duplicate this\nperfect means of analyzing stock movements, and you are certain that fame and fortune are assured by the\nwork you've just completed.
Realizing that you haven't backed up any copies of your precious work, you reach for a diskette. After\ninserting the backup disk and striking the \""save\"" key, you begin to relax. Just then, the lights in the room\nbrighten momentarily as the air conditioner shuts off. To your horror, you see the precious spreadsheet\nscrambled to garbage on your monitor and the disk drive goes wild.
You have just experienced a power spike, a brief surge of high voltage in your power supply."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-65-66-spike-protection-by-john-mccormick-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-65-66-spike-protection-by-john-mccormick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-65-66-spike-protection-by-john-mccormick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-cumulat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (67-69): Cumulative Volume and momentum Part 2 by John C. Lawlor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cumulative Volume and momentum\nPart 2\nby John C. Lawlor
Price is so obvious that we all expect it to tell us everything. For example, if our stock gains $1 on the\nday, we feel good. However, what we really do is multiply that $1 by, say, the 500 shares we own and, of\ncourse, we feel $500 richer. It is truly the number of shares we own that makes us feel good. Volume,\nthen, makes the difference, not just the price or the price change.
Some technical analysts talk erroneously about price momentum. Momentum is defined as \""the force of a\nmoving body\"" or \""momentum = mass ´ velocity.\"" Consider a Fiat and a Mack truck moving down the\nhighway at 50 mph. If they strike a stationary object, which will have the greatest effect? Which has the\ngreater momentum due to its greater mass? Which will generate the greater force? If we think about the\nChicago Bears' Refrigerator Perry hitting the line at full speed, we really understand momentum.
Thinking about market forces then, volume represents the mass of momentum and is causative of price\nchange. Price is simply a number indicating change alone. Measuring and evaluating volume can reveal\nand confirm price changes.
In the first installment of this article (Stocks & Commodities, January 1988), I presented charts where\nCumulative Volume (CV) was overlaid on price to show the moving relationship of both. In addition, the\n200-day moving average of price (200DMA) was placed on the chart to show how it normally is a\nmoving line of resistance or line of support for price. The charts showed only one additional CV\ncharacteristic called a channel trend."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-67-69-cumulative-volume-and-momentum-part-2-by-john-c-lawlor-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-67-69-cumulative-volume-and-momentum-part-2-by-john-c-lawlor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-67-69-cumulative-volume-and-momentum-part-2-by-john-c-lawlor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-optplus-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (70-72): Optionvue Plus by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Optionvue Plus\nby John Sweeney
Options Software International
175 E. Hawthorn Parkway, Suite 180
Vernon Hills, IL 60061
(312) 816-6610
Product: Options analysis package for stocks, equity indices, convertible securities and COMEX gold.
Price: $695
Equipment: IBM-PC or compatible, DOS 2.0+,192K memory, two floppies or one floppy and one\nhard disk.
Ratings:
Level of Analysis: Advanced
Ease of Use: A
Customer Service: B
Documentation: B+
Error Handling: A
Accuracy: A
Overall: B+
An odd thing about many options packages is that they don't often exploit the major points in options'\nfavor: their flexibility. As a general rule, I believe options aren't a great deal for the investing public.\nThey are expensive (perhaps a reflection of the true underlying risks of the market) and commissions are\nhigh. In their favor is their ability to manage a position as it evolves, to move the position up/down in\nprice or in/out in time.
Optionvue Plus, in contrast, seems designed to exploit, rather than ignore, these opportunities. Its\nanalytical flexibility extends across time, price and volatility — by which I mean that all three variables\nare easily and conveniently manipulated.
Author Len Yates' philosophy, Succeeding with Options, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities,\nSeptember and October 1986) is generally to use options' decaying value in conservative strategies which\ncan be expected to yield above-average returns over time, though they are not positioned for explosive\nspeculative gains. That philosophy is implemented in Optionvue Plus, version 1.9."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-70-72-optionvue-plus-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-70-72-optionvue-plus-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-70-72-optionvue-plus-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-student-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (73-74): Students select a winning portfolio by Michael Scott"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Students select a winning portfolio\nby Michael Scott
Can high school seniors on a college prep track outperform leading investment advisors and mutual\nfund managers? Based on the following evidence, the answer must be an unqualified \""yes.\"" The\nunderlying reason for this classroom success is that college prep students are bright, perceptive, objective\nand follow instructions carefully. I suspect they also have implicit faith in a good instructor.
This investment experiment was the outgrowth of a unit on American capitalism in a senior social\nproblems class. I felt that college prep students should be exposed to the financial page of a good daily\nnewspaper and learn how to read it intelligently. One hour was devoted to explaining the symbols and\nterms of the New York Stock Exchange listing. At the end of the class period, I asked the students if they\nwould like a short course on how to select a sound stock with promising potential for growth. The answer\nwas an enthusiastic and overwhelming affirmative, and thus we started our experiment in the stock\nmarket.
In an experiment of this nature it is important to set simple and limited criteria to ensure uniformity and a\nmeasure of objectivity. I told the students I could justify only two 50-minute class periods for this\nassignment. Therefore, they would have to listen carefully to a 35-minute explanation of the criteria and\ndevote the balance of the time to selecting one stock they felt best met the criteria. They were to wrap up\nthe assignment by recording their data and submitting their individual stock selections to me."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-73-74-students-select-a-winning-portfolio-by-michael-scott-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-73-74-students-select-a-winning-portfolio-by-michael-scott-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-73-74-students-select-a-winning-portfolio-by-michael-scott-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-wilder-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (75-76): Wilder's Directional Movement Index System Part 2 by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wilder's Directional Movement Index System\nPart 2\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
As I noted in the last issue, I need both a charting program and Lotus 1-2-3 to trade with discipline and\nconfidence, along with maintaining my emotional health. My first major programming task for Lotus\n1-2-3 came about when I recognized the limits of charting software.
The first indicator we'll systemize is J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s Directional Movement Index (DMI). However,\nonly when we understand what the indicator is supposed to do does it make sense to test it or incorporate\nit into our trading plans. Thus, actual Lotus 1-2-3 work will have to wait.
Scholarship
You may wonder why I chose Wilder's DMI. After all the DMI is available in nearly every technical\nanalysis package. The reasons for this choice are a good example of the value of scholarship.
Briefly described, the charted portion of the DMI system consists of three lines. The ADX, or average\ndirectional movement index, is supposed to tell us if a trend is in effect or not. The other two lines—\n+DI14 and -DI14, the up and down 14-day average of directional movement—are supposed to be issuing\nbuy or sell signals when they cross one another. Figure 1 illustrates the two DI lines on the December\n1986 S&P 500 contract."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-75-76-wilder-s-directional-movement-index-system-part-2-by-jim-summers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-75-76-wilder-s-directional-movement-index-system-part-2-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-75-76-wilder-s-directional-movement-index-system-part-2-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-taming-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (77-78): Taming the indicators by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Taming the indicators\nby Arthur A. Merrill
An indicator is often difficult to read because of its wild fluctuations. It may appear optimistic and\nthen dive into bearish territory. Then it might reverse again and turn bullish. Frustrating!
A wild indicator is usually tamed by a moving average or an exponential average. These techniques\n\""smooth\"" the data for us.
The most common smoothing method is a simple moving average. This method is easily described by an\nexample: a five-week average is the average of the last five weekly data points. In the following week, a\nnew average is calculated by deleting the first week's value and adding the new data point.
The degree of smoothing is determined by the length of the moving average. A five-week moving\naverage has a moderate smoothing effect (Figure 1); a 52-week moving average is very sedate (Figure 2)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-77-78-taming-the-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-77-78-taming-the-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-77-78-taming-the-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c02-money-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:2 (79-81): Money flow analysis by Steven B. Goldstein and Michael N. Kahn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Money flow analysis\nby Steven B. Goldstein and Michael N. Kahn
In 1976, Joe Granville documented several theories of stock market price and volume movements in\nGranville's New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit. The book explained the\ncalculation and interpretation of on-balance volume, a market analysis technique that compares volume\non up days to volume on down days.
His theory was that, as stock prices move higher in a rising market, volume on days that prices increase\nshould be higher than volume on days when prices decline. Conversely, volume on down days should be\ngreater than volume on up days when price is falling. The cumulative sum of up volume less down\nvolume should move in the same direction as price. If it does not, a divergence exists that may be a\ntrading opportunity because prices tend to correct in the direction of on-balance volume.
While Granville has fallen out of favor, the theory of on-balance or cumulative volume has not. (See\nStocks & Commodities, \""Volume analysis,\"" January 1988.) A fair number of market technicians still\nreligiously calculate on-balance volumes. The problems with on-balance volume are that only end-of-day\nfigures are used in the calculation and the calculation does not differentiate between a 1% move in a\nsecurity or market on a given day and a 2% move. The weights are determined by volume, not price\nmovement."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-79-81-money-flow-analysis-by-steven-b-goldstein-and-michael-n-kahn-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-79-81-money-flow-analysis-by-steven-b-goldstein-and-michael-n-kahn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-2-79-81-money-flow-analysis-by-steven-b-goldstein-and-michael-n-kahn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-mktpro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (102-106): Market profile Part 4 by Thomas Drinka, Ph.D. and Robert L. McNutt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market profile\nPart 4\nby Thomas Drinka, Ph.D. and Robert L. McNutt
Previously, we considered the manner in which the market utilizes price probes and rotation during the\ntrading day to promote trade. Depending on the response of other-time-frame traders, these probes result\nin one of six possible daily profiles. Similarly, market rotations occur from one day to the next and over\nthe longer term. The primary purpose of this article is to demonstrate how the Chicago Board of Trade's\ndaily volume summary—known as the Liquidity Data Bank—and a long-term auction activity chart can\nbe utilized to analyze rotations that occur day to day and over the longer term.
The Liquidity Data Bank is transmitted several hours after the close and shows the volume of every\ncontract traded at the exchange. These data are taken from the second Board of Trade Clearing\nCorporation reconciliation, which includes 70%-80% of all CBOT cleared transactions.
Figure 1 is a Market Profile, a 30-minute bar chart and the Liquidity Data Bank volume summary of\nCBOT September 1987 U.S. Treasury bond futures for August 20, 1987. The volume summary's\nhorizontal bars are the percent of total daily contract volume conducted at each price traded within the\ndaily price range of the contract. The dark portion of the horizontal bar is the percent of each total daily\ncontract volume conducted by commercial clearing members (known as CTI2 in the Profile).
At the time of this writing, the activity of other-time-frame traders at the Chicago Board of Trade usually\nranges between 10% and 60% of total volume. The greater the percentage of total daily contract volume\nthat commercial clearing members represent, the greater is the potential for them to change the market's\nstructure."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-102-106-market-profile-part-4-by-thomas-drinka-ph-d-and-robert-l-mcnutt-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-102-106-market-profile-part-4-by-thomas-drinka-ph-d-and-robert-l-mcnutt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-102-106-market-profile-part-4-by-thomas-drinka-ph-d-and-robert-l-mcnutt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-wavemkt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (107-109): Wave market analysis Part 2 by Bryce T. Gilmore"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wave market analysis\nPart 2\nby Bryce T. Gilmore
In part one of this article (February 1988), we examined four turning points—[W], [X], [Y] and [Z]—in\nthe trend of Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange Sugar-World #11 contract. We looked at time cycles and\nretracements and focused on the support and resistance levels they created.
This month we'll examine seven more analyses that could have been performed on the same data to detect\nthe four turning points.
Figure 1: Weekly Trend Wave.
A detrending analysis chart can be a great asset when evaluating the potential risk attached to a\ntime-and-price entry point. I detrend using short, medium and long-term price differences. The exact\namounts depend on your experience.
The way to read this chart is simple:
1. When all waves are in a downtrend trade only short.
2. When all waves are in an uptrend trade only long.
3. If the shorter waves are diverging with the long wave expect a possible reversal to trend.
4. Strength of trend can be evaluated by the position of each wave either above or below its center line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-107-109-wave-market-analysis-part-2-by-bryce-t-gilmore-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-107-109-wave-market-analysis-part-2-by-bryce-t-gilmore-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-107-109-wave-market-analysis-part-2-by-bryce-t-gilmore-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-blackph-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (110-111): Black phantasy in P by Stephen Edwards"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Black phantasy in P\nby Stephen Edwards
What a pip is P.I.P., thought Peter Parsifal on Friday. Peter was head financial \""rocket scientist\"" for\nSmith, Wesson, Winchester and Colt, Inc. P.I.P. was the Portfolio Insurance Program that was Peter's\npersonal project. On Friday, as the market plunged 100 points, Peter's program printed out options sales\nwith punctilious precision. Assets of Smith, Wesson's clients were preserved. Peter's bosses patted Peter's\nback and offered him a partnership.
\""If it wasn't for your invention, it might have been Black Friday around here,\"" they opined. Puffed with\npride, Peter rushed out and purchased a Porsche as a present for his own precious passion flower, Sylvia.
Peter had a good weekend, celebrating his success, driving the Porsche and basking in Sylvia's gratitude.\nAs a result, Peter was rather late to work on Monday. Mr. Colt didn't seem to mind.
\""Boy, am I glad we have that computer online,\"" said Mr. Colt, \""The market's down 287 points already. I\ndon't know how we'd cope without your whiz-kid program.\""
\""287 points?\"" Peter sputtered."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-110-111-black-phantasy-in-p-by-stephen-edwards-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-110-111-black-phantasy-in-p-by-stephen-edwards-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-110-111-black-phantasy-in-p-by-stephen-edwards-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-curvlin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (112-114): Curvilinear chart analysis by D.O. Christian Reiger"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Curvilinear chart analysis\nby D.O. Christian Reiger
Nothing in the universe moves in an unswerving line – least of all futures prices. Why then, should\nstraight lines dominate our technical analysis of charts? In the following examples, you'll see how the\ncurvilinear analysis of price evolution in several futures markets can answer some of the knotty questions\nthat technical traders face.
In particular, this analytical system provides an answer as to why price trends reverse where they do –\nsometimes out of nowhere and at unfathomable times. The system also gives insight into chart formations\nso as to better time trades. Additionally, it demonstrates relationships between past prices and patterns\nand future ones the essential premise of the validity of technical analysis.
The apparatus used in the construction of these curves is the French curve of the drafting profession. You\ncan make your own French curve with Figure 1, which also shows the four ways (a-d) the curve is\npositioned when plotting curves. For instance, on ensuing charts, the notation refers to curved line \""A\""\ndrawn with the French curve in the (c) position. As a straight line must be drawn on at least two points to\nbe valid, a curve must be drawn on a least three points to have predictive value.
The first basic method for plotting curves is to draw them on a series of market highs or market lows in\nareas of price congestion such as accumulation patterns, distribution patterns and bull or bear trends. As\nwith straight line analysis, curved ones along the tops of such formations would indicate resistance and\nthose along the bottom, support."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-112-114-curvilinear-chart-analysis-by-d-o-christian-reiger-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-112-114-curvilinear-chart-analysis-by-d-o-christian-reiger-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-112-114-curvilinear-chart-analysis-by-d-o-christian-reiger-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-payoff-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (115-118): Payoff index by Thomas E. Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Payoff index\nby Thomas E. Aspray
In my market analysis, I find the action of the open interest can be very important. Granted in the\nfinancial futures it occasionally gives misleading signals, but these are the exception rather than the rule.\nI use two indicators which incorporate the open interest, the Board Watch Trend Indicator and the\nHerrick Payoff Index (HPI) developed by John Herrick. I find the HPI is an excellent short- and\nlong-term tool, though my use and interpretation varies from John's.
HPI is simply a mathematical method of measuring the money flowing in or out of a commodity by\ncomputing the difference in dollar volume each day. The formula, according to the CompuTrac System\nOperating Manual, is:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-115-118-payoff-index-by-thomas-e-aspray-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-115-118-payoff-index-by-thomas-e-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-115-118-payoff-index-by-thomas-e-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-macros-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (89-89): Introduction to macros Part 3 by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Introduction to macros\nPart 3\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
In the previous column, I discussed the advantages of using Lotus 1-2-3 in the management of an\nindicator as complex as the Directional Movement Index (DMI). In this column and hereafter, we shall\nmove into the meat of our subject—learning how to use Lotus 1-2-3 to test indicators, refine them and\nincorporate them into your own trading system. The major building block is the macro, so let's begin with\nit.
Macros
In simple terms, a macro is nothing more than a means of automating keystrokes and cursor movement.\nThis was basically what Lotus 1-2-3, Release 1A, contained. Now, Release 2.0 provides what is called a\nCommand language. The Command language actually allows you to perform a high percentage of\nfunctions completely independent of cursor movement. While this is our eventual goal, let's first get a\nhandle on what macros can do at the keystroke level.
All that is required to set up a macro is to put a letter of the alphabet in a column with a '\\ in front of it.\nFor example, '\\x would be the commands for a macro named\\x. The apostrophe in '\\x is a formatting\ncommand and will not be visible on the screen, but is necessary. Leave it out and you get a repeating \\x\npattern: \\x\\x\\x\\x.... You can use other letters if you choose, but I always use '\\x for test macros to avoid\nconfusion with other macros."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-89-89-introduction-to-macros-part-3-by-jim-summers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-89-89-introduction-to-macros-part-3-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-89-89-introduction-to-macros-part-3-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-movinga-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (90-92): Moving averages made simple by Heidi Schmidt"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving averages made simple\nby Heidi Schmidt
Once a beginning chartist successfully learns trend identification and channel drawing (Stocks &\nCommodities, January 1988), moving averages are often the next technical tool to master. Moving\naverages may be used on price or yield to generate a simple trading system or to confirm an opinion from\nthe charts. Moving averages \""smooth\"" the data, allowing trends to be more easily seen and provide a\nbenchmark by which to judge if a reversal has begun.
Simple and exponential moving averages are the most popular types used by technicians. A moving\naverage assigns to each date a number that is an average of previous prices plus the current price. It\n\""moves\"" by incorporating each new price into this average and either deleting the oldest price (simple\nmoving average) or reassigning the weights attached to the previous prices (exponential moving average).
Simple moving average
A simple moving average is the arithmetic mean or average of X price points (where X is the periodicity\nvariable). Figure 1 lists the closing September bond futures price for August 1987 and the three-period\nmoving average on the close. The calculation is simple. For example, the three-period moving average\nfor August 10, 1987 (with bond prices converted from 32nds to decimals) is:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-90-92-moving-averages-made-simple-by-heidi-schmidt-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-90-92-moving-averages-made-simple-by-heidi-schmidt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-90-92-moving-averages-made-simple-by-heidi-schmidt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-fitting-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (93-96): Fitting your \""social style\"" into trading by Herbert Friedman, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fitting your \""social style\"" into trading\nby Herbert Friedman, Ph.D.
When it comes to investing, each of us must develop his or her own methodology and manner of\napproaching the markets. To a large degree, our ability to do this determines our investment success. For\nexample, many commodity traders have lamented the gap between knowing what will happen and having\nthe discipline or desire to execute successfully. Commodity traders also often comment on how their\nemotional or mental mistakes can be extremely expensive.
Whether this gap between your ideas and your bottomline is the result of an emotional response which\nworks against you or difficulty in decision-making, to trade successfully requires all aspects of your\ninvestment behavior at their peak . For many traders, the psychological aspects are just as crucial to\nmonitor as the technical or fundamental.
The easiest and best system to understand yourself in terms of decision-making and behavior under stress\nis the \""social style\"" model that has been used for years as a means of teaching successful management\npractices. The beauty of social styles is that it is a simple, easy-to-understand model that can give you\ninsight into your normal mode of functioning. Understanding yourself in terms of this model can give you\ninvaluable hints for managing yourself. In trading, this increased self-management skill can lead to\nincreased profits."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-93-96-fitting-your-social-style-into-trading-by-herbert-friedman-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-93-96-fitting-your-social-style-into-trading-by-herbert-friedman-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-93-96-fitting-your-social-style-into-trading-by-herbert-friedman-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-reading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (97-98): Reading indicator charts by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Reading indicator charts\nby Arthur A. Merrill
In the preceding column, I discussed the smoothing of indicator data. When you have tamed the wild\nfluctuations, how do you translate the result into a forecast? How do you read the chart?
There are several possible interpretations. A method that works well with one indicator may not be the\nbest for another. The selection of the method is usually made by common sense and trial and error. We'll\nlook at five of the most common and useful.
Unusually high or low
For most indicators, I assume that the indicator is trying to tell me something when it is unusually high or\nlow.
For oscillators, this is a very useful method. However, this method should not be used if the indicator has\nan upward or downward trend. For example, if it has an upward trend, the most recent data will appear\n\""unusually high\"" and will tell you no more than the fact that it is recent.
What should you consider unusually high or unusually low? I usually use a simple benchmark: I consider\nthe top 25% of the data points to be unusually high and the lowest 25% to be unusually low. The middle\n50% is called \""no forecast.\"" In Figure 1, 25% of the points are above the upper dashed line and 25% are\nbelow the lower dashed line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-97-98-reading-indicator-charts-by-arthur-a-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-97-98-reading-indicator-charts-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-97-98-reading-indicator-charts-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c03-surviva-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:3 (99-101): Survival of the fittest by Philip Gotthelf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Survival of the fittest\nby Philip Gotthelf
With the proper tools and right attitude, the \""Crash of '87\"" represented one of the greatest profit\nopportunities in history. A single short S&P 500 futures position could have delivered an amazing\n$60,000— without even picking a top or bottom. However, we have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.\nCould we have spotted the Crash in time to profit? If so, could we have maintained the cool discipline\nrequired to stay with short positions long enough to take advantage of \""Black Monday\"" and moves that\nfollowed?
The answer to the first question is obviously yes. It is the second question so many must answer in the\nnegative. In reality, few were able to sustain positions through the wild swings that took place the week\nbefore Black Monday.
An examination of the December S&P 500 chart (Figure 1) reveals that the market held support at 31000\nthroughout October 12. This area was tested in mid-September and late August. In addition, the June/July\nconsolidation held above 31000 for more than four weeks. Therefore, strict chartists should have sold the\nS&P 500 on October 12, 13 or 14. The support was violated. Furthermore, the 10-day moving averages\nhad been penetrated."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-99-101-survival-of-the-fittest-by-philip-gotthelf-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-99-101-survival-of-the-fittest-by-philip-gotthelf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-3-99-101-survival-of-the-fittest-by-philip-gotthelf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-kaufman-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (123-128): Kaufman on commodity trading"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Kaufman on commodity trading
Perry Kaufman's first book, Commodity Trading Systems and Methods, was probably the second book I\nread on trading. I later discovered it to be a classic and it's been an indispensable reference ever since,\nparticularly around the offices of Stocks & Commodities, where \""new\"" trading ideas make recurrent\nappearances.
When the revised version came out late in 1987 it stimulated S&C to track down Perry and get a \""state of\nthe trader's art\"" report directly from him. After more than the usual thrashing around we finally tracked\nhim down in the sunny climes of Bermuda doing about what you'd expect: system development and price\nforecasting for TransWorld Oil, Ltd., a large oil trading company operating in both the physicals and\nfutures markets. After thoroughly reviewing the state of the art in his book, staff editor Melanie Bowman\nand I sat down to chat with Perry about his feelings about trading.
—John Sweeney, Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-123-128-kaufman-on-commodity-trading-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-123-128-kaufman-on-commodity-trading-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-123-128-kaufman-on-commodity-trading-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-peaking-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (129-132): Peaking of a grand supercycle by Robert J. Prechter Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Peaking of a grand supercycle\nby Robert J. Prechter Jr.
For 13 years, A. J. Frost and I have made the case that a great \""fifth wave\"" bull market—the\ntermination phase of a longer term uptrend—was in force and that it would be followed by a bigger crash\nand bear market than those of 1929-1932.
From this perspective, October 19,1987 was not an anomaly in the stock market. Certainly, it has entered\nthe history books as the largest down day in Wall Street history, and one of the broadest. But it was\ntypical market behavior, the normal resolution of a pattern wave analysts have observed hundreds of\ntimes in smaller degree. What makes the October 1987 drop special is that such large \""kickoffs\"" to bear\nmarkets of this magnitude are rare.
In 1941, R.N. Elliott, with limited data, concluded that the year 1857 had marked a second wave bottom\nand that 1928-29 was a third wave peak in a gigantic uptrend of Grand Supercycle degree. This meant\nthat the multi-decade advance from 1932 would be the termination phase of the expansion which began\nat the founding of the Republic. His was a remarkable observation given that he had discovered the Wave\nPrinciple five years before in smaller-degree formations and that his data were limited to stock price\nrecords from 1854 to 1941. But was he correct?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-129-132-peaking-of-a-grand-supercycle-by-robert-j-prechter-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-129-132-peaking-of-a-grand-supercycle-by-robert-j-prechter-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-129-132-peaking-of-a-grand-supercycle-by-robert-j-prechter-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-correla-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (133-134): Correlations: serial and auto by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Correlations: serial and auto\nby Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Suppose you are testing a pricing pattern to see what relationship it has to future price movement. Or,\nyou are testing an indicator's correlations with price movement. In each case, you need a definitive test to\ntell you if there exists a statistically significant relationship.
Again, much of the early work testing the various forms of the efficient market hypothesis utilized either\nserial or auto correlation techniques. (See for example, P. Cottner's Random Character of Stock Market\nPrices, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, 1964). Unfortunately, correlation techniques may not provide an\nadequate test of this hypothesis and using these techniques may lead to false conclusions.
If you are to test whether or not relationships exist, it is important for you to understand how\ncorrelograms are constructed and what they mean. As an example, the techniques described here will\nreliably show meaningful correlations, if they exist. I will use a series of artificial \""prices\"" to minimize\nproblems of interpretation.
Beginning with Figure 1, we will construct the \""lag-1\"" serial correlogram by examining sequential pairs\nof prices. That is, we will compare the action of today's price with that of yesterday's— the price with a\none-day lag."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-133-134-correlations-serial-and-auto-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-133-134-correlations-serial-and-auto-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-133-134-correlations-serial-and-auto-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-pricere-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (136-137): Price reactions within a trend by Bill McLaren"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price reactions within a trend\nby Bill McLaren
I have, in the past decade, taught trading techniques to many students. Recently, most of my students\nhave entered the markets after purchasing a personal computer and a technical analysis software package.\nThese tools can be quite helpful but they are not the Holy Grail. A majority of my students' losses are\nrelated to one major weakness: little understanding of basic price movement.
Understanding price movement is the foundation of profitable trading and all else must be built on that\nfoundation. Very simplistically, both stock and commodity markets move in only two ways—they trend\nor consolidate. You can view this from three perspectives: short-term (daily charts), intermediate-term\n(weekly charts) and long-term (monthly charts).
First, though, you need a discipline to measure short-term trends. In a powerful, short-term trend, the\nnormal correction against that trend is three to four days, or 90 hours, which is one of the natural time\ncycle harmonics proposed by W. D. Gann. A movement that falls within the three- to four-day period is\nassumed to keep the strong trend intact. A shorter correction then indicates a stronger-than-normal trend,\nand a movement exceeding the fourth day indicates the trend may go into a consolidation or reversal.\n(This concept of normal movement against a powerful trend can be applied to weekly and monthly charts\nby using three to four weeks and three to four months as the normal lifespans of intermediate and\nlong-term corrections.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-136-137-price-reactions-within-a-trend-by-bill-mclaren-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-136-137-price-reactions-within-a-trend-by-bill-mclaren-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-136-137-price-reactions-within-a-trend-by-bill-mclaren-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-compuls-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (138-141): The compulsive trader Part 2 by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The compulsive trader\nPart 2\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
\""When water passes over your head, it makes no difference if it does so by an inch or afoot. You're\ndrowning. You don't want to admit that it is easier to get out of a $100,000 debt than a million dollar\ndebt. You just go for it. When you get to that point, it really starts accelerating. Nothing matters\nanymore. Nothing matters.\""
—A compulsive trader, Stocks & Commodities, January 1988.
Compulsiveness, as illustrated by this quote, is deadly to investment success. Yet many traders have to\ndeal with it. In this second article on compulsiveness, we will delve into the characteristics of the\ncompulsive trader and some suggestions for help.
Prior to the discussion, rate yourself on your own tendency to be a compulsive trader by completing the\nbrief yes-no questionnaire in Figure 1.
The 20 questions were taken from the questionnaire developed by Gambler's Anonymous for their\nmembers. I have simply changed the word \""gambling\"" to \""trading.\"" In a few instances I also have\nchanged other words to make the question fit speculative activity, without changing the nature of the\nquestion."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-138-141-the-compulsive-trader-part-2-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-138-141-the-compulsive-trader-part-2-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-138-141-the-compulsive-trader-part-2-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-ovr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (142-144): OVR - a new indicator by Fred Purifoy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""OVR - a new indicator\nby Fred Purifoy
On-balance volume (OBV) has two generally recognized goals: to serve as a filter for trending and\nnon-trending markets, and to anticipate reversals by divergence from the price trend. (OBV, recall, is the\ncumulative sum of volume where volume is added on up days and subtracted on down days.)
However, coupling price and volume may not be the only path. If we accept that vertical (or bar) chart\naction is a function of volume and open interest (i.e., the activity of the market's participants), there\nshould be an indicator that would reflect that relationship. My attempt at defining such an indicator, using\nonly volume and open interest, is the on-balance volume reflex (OVR). To be useful it should serve the\nsame purposes as OBV, but do it better.
To calculate OVR follow these rules:
-If open interest for a given day, t, is greater than that for day t-c, then add the day's volume to the\ncumulative total. (\""c\"" can be set at any number of days. I use c=4 but there is room for\nexperimenting with this value).
-If open interest for day t is less than that for day t-c, then subtract the day's volume from the\ncumulative total.
-The value of the total is the indicator's value for day t."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-142-144-ovr-a-new-indicator-by-fred-purifoy-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-142-144-ovr-a-new-indicator-by-fred-purifoy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-142-144-ovr-a-new-indicator-by-fred-purifoy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-obv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (145-148): On-balance volume by Tom Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On-balance volume\nby Tom Aspray
On-balance volume or OBV is one of the early technical tools developed by the well-known market\nanalyst, Joe Granville. With the advent of new, and supposedly more sophisticated technical tools, it is\nused less often. Many analysts feel it is not useful, but I would disagree. I find it a very useful and simple\ntechnical tool.
While it is much faster and easier to calculate this indicator by computer, it is very easily calculated by\nhand for individual stocks, market indices or commodities. Here is how you calculate it by hand: 1) Pick\nan arbitrary starting volume number. On most commodities or stocks take the volume for one week for\ndaily plotting or a month's volume if you are plotting weekly. 2) For the first OBV point, if the price on\nthe first day is higher than the previous day, add in the volume; if it is lower, subtract the volume. For\nexample:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-145-148-on-balance-volume-by-tom-aspray-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-145-148-on-balance-volume-by-tom-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-145-148-on-balance-volume-by-tom-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-finding-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (149-152): Finding reliable trading strategies by Steve Kille"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Finding reliable trading strategies\nby Steve Kille
Developing a trading strategy over historical data has become common practice among traders in\nrecent years. The proliferation of micro-computers in our industry has spurred the trend to the point\nwhere nearly every system sold or used has been developed with a computer using past data.
The focus of most research projects has been to develop trading strategies which produce the highest\nlevel of profit over historical data. This is understandable since accumulated wealth is the ultimate goal\nof every trader. Unfortunately, most technicians are simply searching for a set of rules which produce the\nhighest level of profits over historical data and then using these same rules to make trading decisions.\nThe real focus of any research should not be the level of profits but the degree of reliability the system is\nlikely to maintain during actual trading.
For good reasons, optimization has become the technique most widely used in the development of new\ntrading strategies. It is very powerful and extremely flexible. You could use optimization to find the\nbest-length moving average or the most appropriate stop level. For some purposes, optimization is the\nonly viable procedure. For instance, it is the best technique when trying to determine the average\nhalf-cycle of a market for performing Relative Strength Index (RSI) studies. How do you determine the\nmost suitable number of days to use in an RSI calculation? You would first test a 4-day RSI, then a\n5-day, 6-day, and so on to find the length which produces the most profitable results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-149-152-finding-reliable-trading-strategies-by-steve-kille-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-149-152-finding-reliable-trading-strategies-by-steve-kille-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-149-152-finding-reliable-trading-strategies-by-steve-kille-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-trueran-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (153-156): Programming the true range in Wilder's DMI system Part 4 by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Programming the true range in Wilder's DMI\nsystem\nPart 4\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
The March column described the fundamentals of macros. The February column detailed some major\npoints about Wilder's DMI and the system based on it. This time the action gets underway in earnest.\nWhile the material is still relatively elementary now, veteran Lotus programmers should at least skim this\nmaterial. Some of the techniques appear in none of the five books I own on using Lotus. One of them is\ncritical to successful processing of large amounts of data such as technical analysis requires.
True Range
Fundamentally, Wilder's DMI system develops two measurements: (1) the true range in which prices\nmove and (2) the amount of the movement that was directional, whether up or down. Once these two\npieces are defined, everything else builds on them.
Now we begin the work of programming in Lotus 1-2-3 in order to have it calculate the first piece of the\nDMI system, the true range (TR1). This and the calculation of directional movement are the more\ncomplex calculations in the system. If you can master them, you'll find the rest easy. Because the formula\nis so lengthy, much care will be taken in it's development. Let's start with the definition of TRI."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-153-156-programming-the-true-range-in-wilder-s-dmi-system-part-4-by-jim-summers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-153-156-programming-the-true-range-in-wilder-s-dmi-system-part-4-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-153-156-programming-the-true-range-in-wilder-s-dmi-system-part-4-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-consens-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (157-159): Consensus indicators by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Consensus indicators\nby Arthur A. Merrill
There are scores of indicators and, at the same moment, some present an optimistic picture of the\nfuture while others are predicting trouble. Which indicator should be watched most carefully? When two\nindicators disagree, which one is the most likely to be right?
How can you gauge the past performance of indicators? Can it be put into numerical form to simplify\ncomparison? Can indicators be combined into a consensus or model?
Market analysts usually consult the same battery of indicators but their conclusions are often quite\ndifferent. I exchange my weekly report with the reports of 50 analysts. If I sorted the reports between\noptimistic and pessimistic, the two piles would be almost equal. I believe that personal prejudice is a\nlarge part of the reason for the diversity—optimistic analysts give the most weight to optimistic\nindicators; pessimistic analysts believe the pessimistic indicators.
Also, it's always a temptation to remember recent successes and give undeserved weight based on recent\nperformance. A good example is October's \""Black and Blue\"" Monday. It's easy to put on a pedestal the\nindicators that were bearish before the historic stock market crash. This is dangerous. One success isn't\nenough; it's called \""anecdotal evidence.\""
Probably the most popular method of checking consistent accuracy is the graphical-eyeball approach. An\nindicator is charted and compared to the chart of a market indicator. Some analysts chart the indicator on\ntracing paper and superimpose it on a market index. The tracing paper can be moved forward to check the\nindicator's ability to predict the future of the market. Another popular method is to mark the indicator\nsignals with arrows on a chart of a market average. This quickly shows success or failure."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-157-159-consensus-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-157-159-consensus-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-157-159-consensus-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-sidebarc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (157-159): SIDEBAR: Coefficient of Correlation"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Coefficient of Correlation
Correlation is a measure of the degree of relationship between two series. When odd lot shorts are rising,\nis the Dow usually rising? When odd lot shorts are declining, is the Dow usually declining? Or is the\nreverse usually the case? Instead, is the relationship weak or nonexistent?
The correlation coefficient (r) varies between +1 and -1. If it is close to +1, the two series are in close\nagreement. If it is close to -1 when one series is rising, the other is declining. If the coefficient is close to\nzero, there is no evident relationship. Here is a suggested interpretation:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-157-159-sidebar-coefficient-of-correlation-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-157-159-sidebar-coefficient-of-correlation-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-157-159-sidebar-coefficient-of-correlation-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c04-sidebw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:4 (157-159): SIDEBAR: What is Chi Square?"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What is Chi Square?
If, in the past, records show that the market exhibited more rises than declines at a certain time, could it\nhave been by chance? Yes. If a medication produced cures more often than average, could it have been\nluck? Yes. If so, how meaningful is the record?
To be helpful, statisticians set up \""confidence levels.\"" If the result could have occurred by chance once in\n20 repetitions of the record, you have 99% confidence that the result isn't just luck. This level has been\ncalled \""probably significant.\""
If the expectation is once in 1,000 repetitions, you can have 99.9% confidence. This level has been called\n\""significant.\""
If your statistics are a simple two-way (e.g., yes-no; rises vs. declines; heads-tails; right-wrong), you can\neasily determine the confidence level with a simple statistical test. It may be simple, but it has a\nformidable name: Chi Square Test with Yates' Correction. Here's the formula:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-157-159-sidebar-what-is-chi-square-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-157-159-sidebar-what-is-chi-square-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-4-157-159-sidebar-what-is-chi-square-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-spreadt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (166-169): Spread trading the CRB Index by John J. Murphy and David J. Hirschfeld"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spread trading the CRB Index\nby John J. Murphy and David J. Hirschfeld
This article really has two aspects. The first is to introduce the concept of relative strength analysis to\ncommodity markets utilizing CRB Index futures. The second aspect is to show how relative strength (or\nratio) analysis can be used as a stepping stone for intermarket spread trading between individual\ncommodity markets and CRB Index futures. Relative strength analysis used in this context refers to the\ncomparison of two different entities, usually through ratio analysis, and is not to be confused with the\nRelative Strength Index developed by J. Welles Wilder.
Relative strength analysis
Relative strength analysis is widely used in stock market investing. An individual common stock or an\nindustry group is compared to some objective benchmark, most commonly Standard & Poor's 500 Index.\nThe stock or industry group is divided by the S&P Index and the resulting ratio is plotted daily on a price\nchart to compare the stock or group to the broader market.
A rising relative strength (RS) line indicates the stock or industry group is outperforming the broader\nmarket. A falling RS line indicates a weaker performance relative to the market. Stock analysts and\nportfolio managers use this technique to monitor the rotational nature of the stock market and to ensure\nthat money is flowing into the stronger market sectors and stocks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-166-169-spread-trading-the-crb-index-by-john-j-murphy-and-david-j-hirschfeld-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-166-169-spread-trading-the-crb-index-by-john-j-murphy-and-david-j-hirschfeld-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-166-169-spread-trading-the-crb-index-by-john-j-murphy-and-david-j-hirschfeld-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-validat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (170-172): Validating Elliott wave counts by H. Ralph Cripps"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Validating Elliott wave counts\nby H. Ralph Cripps
The practice of Elliott Wave anal ysis allows for alternative wave counts, and it is critical to\ndifferentiate among the various choices. Prioritizing is best accomplished with a confirming\nfilter—which \""validated\"" the Elliott waves that clearl y indicated the Dow J ones Industrial Average top on\nAugust 25, 1987, which preceded the massive decline of October.
Almost every Elliott Wave technician will use some technique to assist in establishin g an appropriate\nwave count. Some aids for defining wave sequences, magnitude and alternative wave counts are c ycles,\nmomentum studies and Fibonacci numbers. One of the indicators I use to enhance the longer-term\nperspective is the slow D line of the 21-week stochastic. This indicato r, developed by George Lane, has\nexceptional merit when used to confirm Elliott waves.
This validation methodolog y, on August 25, interpreted the Elliott wave count for the Dow as being at\nthe end of the fifth wave of a fifth wave, which signaled a significant correction as the most probable\npossibility. The ensuing decline appears to be confirming itself as the beginning of Primar y Wave 4,\nindicating the prior top as Primar y Wave 3.
The rationale for matching Elliott wave counts with the 21-week stochastic is that major Elliott impulse\nand corrective waves will have comparable major top and bottom patterns in the stochastic indicator and\nlesser Elliott waves will have lesser patterns. This should be true if both Elliott waves and the stochastic\nreliabl y define market moves. Such conformit y in action appears to have excellent correlation based on\nmy studies beginning with the bull market inception in 1982."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-170-172-validating-elliott-wave-counts-by-h-ralph-cripps-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-170-172-validating-elliott-wave-counts-by-h-ralph-cripps-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-170-172-validating-elliott-wave-counts-by-h-ralph-cripps-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-assist-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (173-174): An assist in market timing by Irving Lehren"",""caption-linebreaks"":""An assist in market timing\nby Irving Lehren
Determining turning points and changes in the stock market often requires looking back at how the\nmarket reacted under similar circumstances. But aberrations occur in most cycles and a trader must\nformulate some intuitive judgment to arrive at a decision.
An essential factor in coming to grips with the stock market should be an indicator composed of the\nstocks that make new highs each week. Logically, it should reveal the flow of money or the state of\nsentiment—if stocks are making new highs, this signifies the investment attitude is positive; a lessening\nof new highs signals non-conformance and results in a trend reversal.
In developing a reliable indicator of market sentiment based on new highs, I tried various time periods\nand found that a running five-week total of new highs resulted in an easily kept chart (Figure 1) and few\nwhipsaws.
You can construct this chart of the New Highs Indicator using the weekly \""new highs\"" number published\nin Barron's or The New York Times.
Start by adding the weekly number of stocks making new highs for the past five weeks. Each week, add\nthe current number of new highs and subtract the oldest new highs number."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-173-174-an-assist-in-market-timing-by-irving-lehren-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-173-174-an-assist-in-market-timing-by-irving-lehren-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-173-174-an-assist-in-market-timing-by-irving-lehren-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-exorcis-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (175-177): Exorcise fear of a depression by Charles Bebber"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Exorcise fear of a depression\nby Charles Bebber
Not surprisingly, economic reports in the weeks following the stock market's Black Monday bristled\nwith references to pessimism, alarm and failure of confidence. Contemporary economic thought has long\ntaken for granted that psychology plays a key role in the economy's performance. The high drama of\nOctober, therefore, compelled analysts to weigh again and again the possible emotional repercussions on\nmarkets and consumers.
From the standpoint of psychology, however, questions can be raised regarding their repeated allusions to\none particular psychological element—raw fear:
- In its first issue after the plunge, Newsweek worried that \""the cascading Dow and record trading\nvolume marked a major shift in psychology and sent a powerful shiver across the country... If hastened\nby a financial panic, a recession could quickly spread, creating deep economic distress around the\nglobe.\""
- The initial issues of the several business publications waxed equally ominous. John Curran,\nFortune's chief stock market writer, described the nosedive and its aftermath as a \""once-in-a-lifetime\ntrauma,\"" \""hair-raising,\"" \""chilling\"" and \""emotionally wrenching.\""
- New York Times columnist R.M. Rosenthal, concerned about the emotional fallout from Black\nMonday, even interviewed a psychiatrist, who warned that \""panic and fear are the other side of greed\""\n(a fact well known by traders)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-175-177-exorcise-fear-of-a-depression-by-charles-bebber-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-175-177-exorcise-fear-of-a-depression-by-charles-bebber-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-175-177-exorcise-fear-of-a-depression-by-charles-bebber-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-princip-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (178-181): Principles of market activity by Robert Pisani"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Principles of market activity\nby Robert Pisani
Fundamental to the branch of applied economics that I call Market Structure Analysis are three\nprinciples which I modestly call \""the Pisani Principles.\"" These elementary principles, certainly known to\nmerchants—at least intuitively—since commerce began, describe the inherent relationships between\nprice, volume and time, and point the way to the proper interpretation of this kind of market data.
The Pisani Principles apply to any free market, for they are perfectly general and express the motivations\nof market participants in a way that is, in some sense, complete. As such, they express also the limits of\nthe reasoning and the conclusions that can be logically derived from price, volume and time.
These principles can be derived from the following simple consideration: sellers want to sell high volume\nat a high price in a short time, whereas buyers want to buy high volume at a low price in a short time.\nThus, the buyer and the seller desires are compatible in two dimensions, volume and time, and compete\nin the third, price. In order to achieve their goals, both the buyers and sellers make compromises. Their\nneeds in each dimension may be different. Their behavior, represented by the three-dimensional\nmovement of the price-time-volume point, discloses their needs, motivations and priorities.
For purposes of visualizing the action of these principles in the marketplace, it is helpful to think of two\nmarket participants, a buyer and seller, occupying neighboring stores on a commercial sidewalk. The\nabove consideration leads to the following two-dimensional presentations of the buyers' and sellers'\nthree-dimensional motivations, stated as three principles, the Time-Volume Principle, the Price-Volume\nPrinciple, and the Price-Time Principle:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-178-181-principles-of-market-activity-by-robert-pisani-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-178-181-principles-of-market-activity-by-robert-pisani-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-178-181-principles-of-market-activity-by-robert-pisani-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-spying-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (183-187): Spying the black hole by Carl Wyman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spying the black hole\nby Carl Wyman
The stock market spiraled into a black hole on October 19, 1987, hurting investors and destroying\nmany put writers. For most traders the plunge was an incredible concepts which could have warned a\ntrader of a potential shorting opportunity—missed. Why were so few technicians prepared for the crash?\nWere not some technical indications of an impending market \""correction\"" present? Let' take a look at\nsome of the familiar and maybe not so familiar technical market top. None of these concepts are new.\nMost were written about and practiced more than 50 years ago.
In August 1987, several factors existed which suggested that the longer-term bull market phase might\nsoon end:
-The bull market celebrated its fifth birthday. This is \""old\"" as bull markets go and would sooner or later\nbe followed by a bear market.
-Historically high P/E ratios and miniscule dividend yields (Figure 1) uggested extreme over-valuation.\nPeriods of extreme over-valuation are rare and temporary. Either earnings and dividends would\nsharply increase or stock prices would soon drop.
-Monetary tightening preceded most major bear markets since World War I (1962 was an exception). A\nshift from monetary ease to restraint began in early 1987 as evidenced by a decreasing rate of increase\nin the money supply. Bond and T-bill prices responded by peaking in early 1987. As bond prices\nmoved down, stock prices continued to advance into August, creating a significant divergence (Figure\n2). Such a divergence usually resolves with the stock market following bonds downward."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-183-187-spying-the-black-hole-by-carl-wyman-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-183-187-spying-the-black-hole-by-carl-wyman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-183-187-spying-the-black-hole-by-carl-wyman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-sysrank-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (188-191): System Rankings by John Hill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""System Rankings\nby John Hill
Futures Truth Company has updated its table on the performance of publicity available trading systems.\nResults are shown for the six months from August 1, 1987 to December 31, 1988. Similar tables covering\nthe most recent 12 months and the past four years, as well as detailed reports on each system, are\navailable from Futures Truth for $10.
Futures Truth has taken to covering black box systems as well as disclosed systems. We've published the\nsix-month table because it minimizes the ability of vendors to \""fit\"" their systems to historical data. As we\nunderstand it, all the programs in this table have been released to the market and their performance\nfigures are therefore \""real time.\"" The six-month period used here covered some spectacular market action.
Programs are ranked according to Pessimistic Return on Margin (PROM), a figure developed by\nstatistician Rod Sharp and popularized by Bo Thunman, head of Club 3000. This measure adjusts the\nusual return on margin calculation by changing the return figure. You assume that the number of wins\nwill be fewer by the square root of the actual number and that the number of losses will be greater by the\nsquare root of the actual number . Then, the resulting numbers of wins or losses are multiplied by the\naverage win or loss and the sum of the resulting wins/losses is divided by the required margin."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-188-191-system-rankings-by-john-hill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-188-191-system-rankings-by-john-hill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-188-191-system-rankings-by-john-hill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-compari-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (192-193): Comparing data vendors by Steven B. Achelis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Comparing data vendors\nby Steven B. Achelis
If you think choosing stocks and/or commodities to buy is difficult, try selecting a data vendor to use\nwith your technical analysis software. At Computer Asset Management we have written software (The\nDownloader) to automatically \""download\"" data from 13 vendors for use with our MetaStock technical\nanalysis program and other compatible software. We found significant differences among these vendors,\nas you'll see in Figure 1.
We gathered this information to assist our customers in choosing a data vendor, but keep in mind that\nthere may be advantages to the various data vendors based on criteria not shown here. For example, it is\nvery difficult to quantify the quality of data or the quality of technical support offered by the data vendor\nand/or software developer. Computer Asset Management believes this information is accurate, but cannot\nguarantee that it is—we suggest you contact the data vendors for additional details.
Also, these comparisons were based on collecting data used by the MetaStock program. Features of the\ndata vendors that are not used by MetaStock, such as news and weather reports, were not compared. We\nrated manuals and ease of use on a scale of 1 to 10 (with 10 being the best) based on feedback that\nComputer Asset Management has received from our customers and on Computer Asset Management's\nown experiences working with these services."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-192-193-comparing-data-vendors-by-steven-b-achelis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-192-193-comparing-data-vendors-by-steven-b-achelis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-192-193-comparing-data-vendors-by-steven-b-achelis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-pfspeed-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (194-195): Programming for speed Part 5 by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Programming for speed\nPart 5\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
The past several columns discussed macros and led you through some elementary programming to show\nhow to develop one of the indicators used in J. Welles Wilder's Directional Movement Index (DMI)\nsystem. The March column created range names for each row, moving down the rows while processing\nthe price data. That technique is very slow and, for several months' worth of data, would tie up a machine\nfor hours.
To overcome this problem, this column introduces concepts which allow the program to operate with\nminimal cursor or range movement. As a general rule, if you can avoid cursor movement or updating\nrange names, the program will be at its best in terms of processing speed.
For purposes of illustration, we'll use the same 14 days of March 1978 Chicago Wheat data, with the\nrange name displayed (Figure 1). The March column discussed data and date input macros. TR1 stands\nfor the trading range for the day. The April column explained the definition and the math. Two important\ncommands we'll introduce this month are essential to using Lotus 1-2-3 with the amount of data required\nfor technical analysis. These commands are {Put} and @Index(...), neither of which were in Release 1A\nof Lotus 1-2-3."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-194-195-programming-for-speed-part-5-by-jim-summers-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-194-195-programming-for-speed-part-5-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-194-195-programming-for-speed-part-5-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-trendde-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (196-196): Trend detection by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trend detection\nby Arthur Merrill
The trend of prices is itself an indicator of the future, since trends tend to continue. In a bull market,\nthe major trend is upward. Since most stocks ride with the trend, it's a good idea to buy and hold stocks in\na bull market. The reverse is true in a bear market.
But the movement in a bull or bear market certainly isn't a straight line. There are secondary reactions in\nbull markets when the intermediate trend is downward. There are rallies in bear markets when the\nintermediate trend is rising. Within these intermediate trends there are minor reversals, forming minor\ntrends.
It pays to invest in the direction of a trend. But how do you determine this direction? Here are a few\nmethods:
-The eyeball method: A glance at a chart can be revealing; the trend is sometimes obvious. As Yogi\nBerra put it, \""You can observe a lot by watching.\"" If the trend isn't obvious, one of the more objective\nmethods is preferable.
-Filtered waves: This method is simple—minor reversals are ignored or filtered out. A trend is assumed\nto continue until an important reversal comes along. This is the method used in point-and-figure\ncharts. Prices continue in a fixed direction until a reversal of a stated number of points occurs.
I prefer to use a percentage rather than a number of points. For example, my definition of a bull or bear\nmarket is any swing of more than 30% (Figure 1). All swings of less than 30% are ignored; what remains\nare bull and bear markets. This definition fits the financial histories quite well."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-196-196-trend-detection-by-arthur-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-196-196-trend-detection-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-196-196-trend-detection-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c05-sevenbe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:5 (197-197): The seven best brokers in America by Norm Zadeh, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The seven best brokers in America\nby Norm Zadeh, Ph.D.
The vast majority of brokers do not make their own investment decisions. When they phone a client\nwith a recommendation, it is that of the firm, not their own. Out of roughly 65,000 brokers, perhaps only\n2,500 make their own decisions. Most of these \""superior\"" brokers have entered the U.S. Trading\nChampionship or the U.S. Investing Championship at one time or another.
The results of five years worth of real money competitions are somewhat gloomy—only 505 of 2370\ncontestants, 21.3%, reported profits. On the bright side, there are a few brokers who consistently report\nprofits. The most consistent brokers I've seen are listed below in alphabetical order. Several top prospects\nhave been omitted because they have not yet participated in four competitions.
There are four divisions in each competition: stocks, options, option-writing and futures. The highest\nreturns are in options and futures, divisions which also have the most risk. In the performance records\n(profit percentage) noted below, the numbers in parentheses, i.e., (2), refer to the various four-month\ntrading competitions (two per year) held since 1983; those numbers with asterisks, i.e., (1*), (2*) or (3*),\nrefer to the three one-year investing competitions held since 1985."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-197-197-the-seven-best-brokers-in-america-by-norm-zadeh-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-197-197-the-seven-best-brokers-in-america-by-norm-zadeh-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-5-197-197-the-seven-best-brokers-in-america-by-norm-zadeh-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-debug-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (205-209): Debugging and the virtues of experimentation Part 6 by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Debugging and the virtues of experimentation\nPart 6\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
In last month's column we discussed the use of {Put} and @Index(...) menu commands in Lotus 1-2-3.\nThese can increase significantly program speed by avoiding cursor movement and redundant range names\nduring processing. We used these to update the formula which calculates the trading range (TR1) shown\nin Figure 1.
The TR1 portion of J. Welles Wilder's DMI is a complex formula and very susceptible to typing errors.\nThis month I'll show you how to debug complex formulas before we go on to develop the TR1 loop.
Are you chafing at the bit to get to the finished product? Keep in mind that this column is process\noriented; reproducing my system is secondary. The goal is to give you the tools to accomplish your own\ntrading tasks. Each column presents a tool, all the while moving towards a \""product.\""
If the TR1 formula doesn't work the first time you type it into your computer, don't be discouraged. The\nfirst time I tried, it didn't work for me either. Several sorts of errors commonly occur when using {Put}\nand @Index(...) functions. We'll solve them one by one."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-205-209-debugging-and-the-virtues-of-experimentation-part-6-by-jim-summers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-205-209-debugging-and-the-virtues-of-experimentation-part-6-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-205-209-debugging-and-the-virtues-of-experimentation-part-6-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-contrar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (210-213): Contrary opinion by Henry Van Kessel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Contrary opinion\nby Henry Van Kessel
A contrarian is a person ahead of the times. He sees things others don't. Like a master chess player, he\nobserves more pieces of the situation, looks further on the horizon. When the situation is right, he plays a\nbig hand because he has done his homework and is not relying on anyone's opinions.
The few lead, the many follow. But the followers don't know who the real leaders are. Rather than trying\nto find the leaders (who appear too elusive) one popular idea is that, since the followers are statistically\nlosers, perhaps it would be best to follow the followers and do the opposite. Thus was born bullish\nconsensus!
Bullish consensus
Bullish consensus is arrived at by polling commodity advisors and brokerage houses and estimating the\npercentage of market participants who are bullish in a given market at a given time. The theory is that\nwhen opinion is extreme, the odds of a market reversal are high. Let us place this theory under close\nscrutiny.
There are some very deep problems with using bullish consensus as a predictor of price movement. First,\nwhat makes traders and advisors bullish? Behind the thousands of reasons given, there is one thing—a\nmarket that is going up! Thus, in a given week, if a market has made a sharp advance, odds are very\nstrong there will be more bulls than before the rally occurred. After all, almost everybody just follows the\nmarket."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-210-213-contrary-opinion-by-henry-van-kessel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-210-213-contrary-opinion-by-henry-van-kessel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-210-213-contrary-opinion-by-henry-van-kessel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-ifboss-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (214-217): If the boss only knew technical analysis by Vincent Cosentino"",""caption-linebreaks"":""If the boss only knew technical analysis\nby Vincent Cosentino
When a company official, director or a large stockholder buys stock in the company, this has to be a\nsign that green grass and blue skies are ahead. After all, who knows the company better than the people in\ncharge of running it?
Virtually every company has incentive plans to motivate the top officials. Included in these packages are\nsuch perks as stock options and rights that allow the official to buy company stock below market and\nrealize an instant profit. Sometimes, the company even provides a low-cost loan to help the officer make\nthe purchase.
However, it is when insiders purchase stock in the open market, at market price and with their own\nout-of-wallet cash that the spotlight should come on. That's because the officer usually has a single\nreason for the purchase—he or she expects the price of the stock to move up.
Despite the recent unmasking of some infamous examples of illicit insider trading (the most flagrant\nbeing the Ivan Boesky and Dennis Levine scheme), insider trading is legal within limits. Officers,\ndirectors or a large stockholder can lawfully purchase stock in the company if they do so without making\nuse of important, non-public information. Examples of this would be an unannounced, revolutionary new\nproduct or a substantial, unexpected earnings improvement."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-214-217-if-the-boss-only-knew-technical-analysis-by-vincent-cosentino-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-214-217-if-the-boss-only-knew-technical-analysis-by-vincent-cosentino-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-214-217-if-the-boss-only-knew-technical-analysis-by-vincent-cosentino-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-moretrn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (218-219): More trend detection by Arthur A. Merill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""More trend detection\nby Arthur A. Merill
Last month I described four methods of trend detection: eyeball, filtered waves, zigzags and\nsupport/resistance levels. Here are seven more:
Moving average
This indicator is rather limited when you consider the construction of a moving average. For a new point\non a ten-week average, for example, you add the current data unit to the total of the past ten weeks, then\nsubtract the data unit that was added eleven weeks in the past, and divide by 10. You can see that the\ntrend is entirely dependent on the difference between the current data and the data eleven weeks earlier.
In my work, I prefer the exponential average. It's easier to compute than the simple moving average, and\nit gives more weight to recent data points. The details of this average are in my column in my February\ncolumn.
Current prices vs. moving averages
A rising trend is indicated when prices are above the moving average or the exponential average. The\nindication is short term if the average is short term, and long term if the average is long term. Buying and\nselling points are sometimes at the point of crossover."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-218-219-more-trend-detection-by-arthur-a-merill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-218-219-more-trend-detection-by-arthur-a-merill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-218-219-more-trend-detection-by-arthur-a-merill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-movavg-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (220-223): Moving averages Part 1 by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving averages\nPart 1\nby John Ehlers
Averages have long been recognized as the best estimator of a random variable. Traders use moving\naverages as trading signals or as components of trading systems, but the moving average characteristics\nare seldom described for them. This is the first of a two-part article on moving averages to help promote\na wider understanding. I'll explore some interesting characteristics of several kinds of moving averages\nand compare them in this article. In part 2, these characteristics will be applied to create a new kind of\nleading indicator entry system. I modestly call this new system ELI for the Ehlers Leading Indicator.
A moving average is, quite simply, a filter. It provides a means for passing through certain information\nwe wish to see, while witholding (attenuating) data which would obscure or confuse our efforts to see a\nparticular pattern. Just as sunglasses filter out certain wavelengths of light so we can see a scene more\nclearly, a moving average filters out certain data elements so the pattern we seek can be more readily seen.\nThe moving average is a type of low-pass frequency filter. The filter removes the high-frequency\nvariations to produce the familiar smoothed line or response, as engineers call it. Such filters are often\ndescribed in terms of their impulse response. An impulse is a sharp spike (of theoretically zero width)\nthat excites the filter (the moving average). Striking a bell is a simple example of an impulse response.
The bell's ringing slowly dies out with time and during this period several overtones may interact to form\nbeat notes. Because the ringing theoretically never completely dies out, this kind of filter is called an\nInfinite Impulse Response (IIR) filter. All physically realizable filters are of this type."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-220-223-moving-averages-part-1-by-john-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-220-223-moving-averages-part-1-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-220-223-moving-averages-part-1-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-sidebar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (220-223): SIDEBAR: SIDEBAR 1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR 1
The period of maximum sensitivity cycle is half the window length, L. Attenuation of a Simple Moving\nAverage (SMA) for this period is 2/pi. For an equivalent Exponential Moving Average (EMA) attenuation\nthis is expressed as:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-220-223-sidebar-sidebar-1-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-220-223-sidebar-sidebar-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-220-223-sidebar-sidebar-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-spectru-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (224-226): Spectrum by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spectrum\nby John Sweeney
Technicom, Inc.
736 N.E. 20th Avenue
Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33304
(305) 523-5394
Product: Trading system with optimizing capability and real-time trading signals.\nPrice: $2,500. Graphix package: $395.
Equipment: Apple II or IBM PC/XT/ AT/PS or com-patibles, 256K RAM, monochrome or color\nmonitor, MS-DOS or PC-DOS, two 360K floppy drives or one floppy and a hard disk drive.
Ratings:
Ease of Use: B+
Customer Service: A
Documentation: C (Undisclosed system)
Profitability: Comparable to VBS and Eurotrader
Reliability: A Overall: B
What we have here is, firstly, a very slick number cruncher for those who wish to search for the\n\""correct\"" parameters for a profitable series of \""would have worked in the past\"" trades. Secondly, given\nthose parameters, the program will tell you what to do tomorrow.
This program was designed to find reliable values for its parameters. There are four items you can tweak,\nalthough what they are and the trading rules using them are not disclosed in the manual. (I've had other\nthings to say about that subject in these pages.) These are the volatility average, high/low channel width,\nfilter factor and the SPANEX average. Author Ray Green feels these are such well-known tools that\nlisting them amounts to disclosure. Rest assured, you will not be able to duplicate Spectrum signals or\ncheck its results from the sales literature or the manual. Anyway, Spectrum is not the only system on the\nmarket which searches mounds of price data with unknown or vaguely defined rules, so there must be a\nmarket for this approach. Just don't count on increasing your trading knowledge using Spectrum."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-224-226-spectrum-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-224-226-spectrum-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-224-226-spectrum-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-nyse-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (227-231): NYSE technical indicators: diagnosing market bottoms by Thomas Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NYSE technical indicators: diagnosing market\nbottoms\nby Thomas Aspray
By definition, significant market bottoms or tops seem to catch the majority by surprise, especially the\nfundamentalists. When an important low is formed, I try to review the many technical studies that I use to\ndetermine which ones worked well and which ones didn't.
On a daily basis, I run more than 250 studies on the stock market, including cash indices,\nadvance/decline, high/lows and futures. I weight my indicators using past experience, pattern recognition,\netc. In this article, we'll take a close look at how some of these studies performed at the lows in late 1986\nand other important market bottoms. First of all, a review of the indicators and their formulas is\nappropriate.
About the charts
I overlay the NYSE Composite bar chart with a 21-day moving average and a +/- 3% trading band. This\nmoving average length is a time-tested period and the positioning of the trading band speaks for itself.
The NYSE Advance/Decline line represents the cumulative difference between advancing and declining\nprices. Besides watching for breaks through trendlines or support/resistance levels, divergence from the\nprice movement is also important. Often you will see the A/D line move above its previous highs or\nbelow its previous lows, and prices generally follow.
Both the 10-day ARMS index (TRIN) and oscillator need a daily calculation of the ARMS index:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-227-231-nyse-technical-indicators-diagnosing-market-bottoms-by-thomas-aspray-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-227-231-nyse-technical-indicators-diagnosing-market-bottoms-by-thomas-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-227-231-nyse-technical-indicators-diagnosing-market-bottoms-by-thomas-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-creati-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (232-236): Creating charts with Lotus by John O'Donahue"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Creating charts with Lotus\nby John O'Donahue
Those who have used a personal computer for technical analysis of the markets probably are familiar\nwith Lotus 1-2-3, and recognize what a powerful tool it can be. It is particularly good for evaluating new\nindicators or working out how to apply an idea to a given problem.
One of the most useful functions of Lotus is its graphics package. I frequently use it as a general purpose\nutility to graph the results of other programs written in languages which are more efficient at processing\ndata, but poor at plotting the results. After all, where else can you get a color graphics package that offers\nuser-scaled output to plotters or printers and has such a nice spreadsheet thrown in?
The key to coaxing a bit more from Lotus 1-2-3 lies in viewing it as a family of useful programs, rather\nthan a single package. By adding a few extra members to that family, the overall capabilities of Lotus can\neasily be extended. For example, I use a simple little BASIC routine to reformat price data so that I can\ndraw high, low and close bars instead of the usual line graph of a stock price. This is useful when using\nstops, because the high and low are much more significant than the close. A BASIC program for this is\ngiven in the sidebar \""Using BASIC Programs to Message Data\""."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-232-236-creating-charts-with-lotus-by-john-o-donahue-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-232-236-creating-charts-with-lotus-by-john-o-donahue-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-232-236-creating-charts-with-lotus-by-john-o-donahue-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-sidebu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (232-236): SIDEBAR: Using BASIC Programs to Massage Data"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using BASIC Programs to Massage Data
Microsoft BASIC has become the standard programming language on today's PC's and clones. It comes\nin a couple of slightly different flavors: BASIC, BASICA and GWBASIC, for example, are the most\ncommon IBM and clone versions. There are plenty of rather esoteric versions popular among\nprogrammers. The following steps will help you to install and use the BASIC programs provided in this\nissue.
1. Getting started
Whichever version of BASIC you have, start it up exactly as you would start your spreadsheet. That is,\nwhen the DOS prompt appears, type the name of your version, e.g: A:>GWBASIC
Assuming that you have GWBASIC on disk, you would now see an introductory message and the word\n\""OK\"" on your screen. This tells you that you can start using BASIC."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-232-236-sidebar-using-basic-programs-to-massage-data-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-232-236-sidebar-using-basic-programs-to-massage-data-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-232-236-sidebar-using-basic-programs-to-massage-data-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c06-steidl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:6 (237-237): Trading with Steidlmayer by Ellen C. Williams"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading with Steidlmayer\nby Ellen C. Williams
Talking with J. Peter Steidlmayer about the commodities markets is different than talking with any\nother trader in the game.
Bonds, soybeans, grains and currencies are metaphors that define Steidlmayer's way of looking at life. A\nsuccess on the floor at the Chicago Board of Trade while still in his 20s, Steidlmayer wrote a trader's\nmanual for the Chicago Board of Trade known as the Market Profile in 1984. In this work, he details how\ntime, price and sales reflect what goes on while the markets are trading. At the end of each day, the\nLiquidity Data Bank summary gives the trader a detailed report of volume, contract month, volume of\neach price, including the percent of the volume traded by local traders vs. the percent of volume traded by\ncommercials at each price.
The CBOT Market Profile is considered innovative work that, to Steidlmayer, tells the story of the\nmarket. Since this is a new way to look at trading, some of the material in the profile takes time to\nbecome part of a trader's methodology.
To understand the market according to Steidlmayer, one must look at trading in a new way. \""Life is about\nto change,\"" Steidlmayer tells students in a trading seminar at his ranch in Butte Meadow, California. In\nhis world, nature is a teacher, setting the examples of organization and adaptability. \""I don't deserve that\nstar reputation in bond trading. I'm not such a good trader. What I am is a good money maker. There is a\nbig difference between being a trader and a money maker.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-237-237-trading-with-steidlmayer-by-ellen-c-williams-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-237-237-trading-with-steidlmayer-by-ellen-c-williams-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-6-237-237-trading-with-steidlmayer-by-ellen-c-williams-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-mutualf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (240-243): Mutual fund trading strategy by Stan Jones"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Mutual fund trading strategy\nby Stan Jones
It has always struck me that the typical technical analysis software package doesn't answer the right\nquestion. It plots technical indicators on the same screen with prices so the user can pick the one or the\ncombination that seems to call turns in the market. Then, presumably, the user goes away and begins to\ntrade on that indicator.
The problem is that the real trading question is not, \""How does the indicator Q look on a computer\nscreen?\"" The question is, \""How much money will I make or lose if I use indicator Q in the real world?\""
This question cannot be answered by anyone but a seer, since it depends on what prices will do in the\nfuture. However, a closely related question, \""How would I have profited if I had traded on indicator Q in\nthe past?\"" can easily be answered, particularly by a computer. With a file of historical price and dividend\nquotes, the computer can give us an accurate idea of how a given trading strategy would have worked in\nthe past.
As a former engineer (since lapsed into news papering), I still favor the KISS (Keep it Simple,\nStupid),approach to life, so I decided to start with the simplest strategy imaginable— the Moron Strategy.
It goes like this: suppose a moron put up $10,000 to trade in Fidelity's Magellan mutual fund in 1979\n(that's as far back as my Magellan quote file goes). Suppose further that this moron bought Magellan if it\nmade a low and then rose some percent (adjusting appropriately for any price changes caused by\ndividends and capital gains distributions). That is, if L was the low, the moron would buy Magellan when\nthe quoted price, Q, reached X percent above L, the lowest price since the last sale. In other words:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-240-243-mutual-fund-trading-strategy-by-stan-jones-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-240-243-mutual-fund-trading-strategy-by-stan-jones-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-240-243-mutual-fund-trading-strategy-by-stan-jones-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-sidebar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (240-243): SIDEBAR: SIDEBAR 1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR 1
As an aside, note that volatility must be adjusted for the price action around dividends in mutual funds. I\ncalculate a \""price factor\"" (PR) if a dividend (D) paid between quotes Qi-1, and Qi:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-240-243-sidebar-sidebar-1-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-240-243-sidebar-sidebar-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-240-243-sidebar-sidebar-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-qscans-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (247-249): Quick-Scans"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUICK-SCANS
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SERVICES
RTR Software, Inc.
444 Executive Center, #225
El Paso, TX 79902
(915) 544-4397
Service: On-line database with standard or custom screens of technical indicators for 500 optionable\nstocks.
Price: $160 per year
RTR, creator of Technifilter Plus, one of the most powerful of the formula-based system-creating\nsoftware packages extant, has come out with a database which offers not only stock pricing but a series of\ntechnical studies all ready for downloading.
There are two levels. Level 1 provides custom screens for five old favorites: 200-day moving average,\nstochastics, Moving Average Con-vergence Divergence (MACD), major trendline breakthroughs and\non-balance volume (OBV) divergence.
Level 2 consists of individual customized screens which only the user can access and download. This\nservice goes for $50 per month.
To hook up you'll need a 1200 baud modem, communications software and a password, naturally\navailable from RTR.
We haven't tried this out, but it reminds us of a similar setup from TeleScan. If interest is expressed to us,\nwe'll look into comparing them in the future."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-247-249-quick-scans-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-247-249-quick-scans-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-247-249-quick-scans-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-eli-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (250-252): Moving averages Part 2 Ehlers Leading Indicator (ELI) by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving averages\nPart 2 Ehlers Leading Indicator (ELI)\nby John Ehlers
Most technical indicators use a moving average of some kind, and this usually dooms the indicator to\nlag price. Some indicators use momentum, or rate of change, to generate a leading function. However,\nthis is similar to taking the derivative of a continuous function, and it results in a very noisy signal. The\nnoise is usually reduced by smoothing or averaging. This averaging delays the indicator so that, at best, it\nruns even with price, without lag or lead.
I have developed a new indicator that provides leading signals when cycles are present in the data. This\nindicator uses only exponential moving averages (EMA), which I described and compared to simple\nmoving averages in Part 1 (see S&C, June 1988). The indicator's parameters may be optimized so you\ncan use it in a turnkey fashion. If you want to examine these parameters in greater detail, a source listing\nin PC BASIC is provided in Figure 5.
I modestly refer to this new indicator as ELI, the Ehlers Leading Indicator."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-250-252-moving-averages-part-2-ehlers-leading-indicator-eli-by-john-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-250-252-moving-averages-part-2-ehlers-leading-indicator-eli-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-250-252-moving-averages-part-2-ehlers-leading-indicator-eli-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-leastsq-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (254-254): Fitting a trendline by least squares by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fitting a trendline by least squares\nby Arthur A. Merrill
Trendlines usually are drawn through tops or bottoms. They also are drawn through the center of prices\nby a lagged moving average or by eye (Figure 1). A straight line through the center of a price channel, if\nthe scale is logarithmic, will give you the percentage growth or decline rate.
If the straight line is drawn by eye, it is subject to debate. This doubt can be resolved by a mathematically\ncalculated line called \""least squares\"" (Figure 2). The deviations of the points from the line are A, B, C, D\nand E. The line produced by the least squares calculation reduces the sum of the squares of these\ndeviations to a minimum, hence the name \""least squares.\""
Now, the formula for a straight line is:
Y = A + BX
X is the value of the X axis and when X is zero, Y equals A, which is called the Y intercept (Figure 3).\nThe distance from this level up to the line is BX, which is directly proportional to B, the slope of the\nregression line. X is the value of the X axis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-254-254-fitting-a-trendline-by-least-squares-by-arthur-a-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-254-254-fitting-a-trendline-by-least-squares-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-254-254-fitting-a-trendline-by-least-squares-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-hackstd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (255-257): Peter Hackstedde: profile of a winning trader by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Peter Hackstedde: profile of a winning trader\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
It was two o'clock on a Friday afternoon. I found myself having lunch with Peter Hackstedde in the Turf\nClub at Santa Anita race track. I had just finished two articles on compulsive trading (see Stocks &\nCommodities, January and March 1988) and here I was at the race track with Peter Hackstedde, whom I\nconsider to be a model trader. He is as different from a compulsive trader as day is from night. Peter\nloves the markets and the track, but he controls the action—the action does not control him.
\""I learned how to manage my money at the race track,\"" he explains. \""It's a great place to learn how to\nmanage money. I don't bet up when the odds aren't right. I learned when to load up and when not to load\nup.\""
Peter has been going to the race track for 30 years and he usually makes money. I placed small bets on his\nrecommendations and, during our lunch conversation, had three winners after five races. But it's not\nPeter's record at the track or in commodities that interests me—it is his mental skills. Those skills are\nwhat make him a winner.
\""I started out in the trucking business and I had a number of trucks. However, then I got my back messed\nup, so I just sold my business. My Dad used to be a broker and he was trading commodities, so I just\nfollowed him. He probably was a terrible trader, but I thought he was good."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-255-257-peter-hackstedde-profile-of-a-winning-trader-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-255-257-peter-hackstedde-profile-of-a-winning-trader-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-255-257-peter-hackstedde-profile-of-a-winning-trader-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-traclue-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (259-261): Trading clues from options volatility by Dave Caplan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading clues from options volatility\nby Dave Caplan
The significance of volatility is overlooked and underestimated by most traders in the options area.\nThis includes both the effect of volatility on the premium cost of an option when purchased, and the\neffect of future changes in volatility on a position.
Volatility is simply a mathematical computation (I use a \""modified\"" Black-Scholes model.) of the\nmagnitude of movement in an option. This is based of course, on the activity in the underlying futures\nmarket. If the market is making a rapid move up or down, volatility will rise. In a quiet market it will be\nlow. I compare these readings to determine the historical volatility range, so I know whether current\nvolatility is relatively high or low. (See Figure 1).
I have found through our research that when volatility is at a very low level, there is a high probability of\na large move about to occur. Conversely, when volatility is at a very high level, there is a substantial\nprobability of the contract maintaining a trading range.
Why is that? It seems that when a contract is very quiet, traders \""fall asleep\"" and don't expect anything to\nhappen. Of course, this is exactly when everything explodes! (See Figures 2 and 3.) On the other hand,\nmany times when the contract has been very active (volatile) for a period of time, most traders are already\nin the market and it is likely to maintain a trading range. However, understanding the concept of volatility\nis much easier than using it in trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-259-261-trading-clues-from-options-volatility-by-dave-caplan-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-259-261-trading-clues-from-options-volatility-by-dave-caplan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-259-261-trading-clues-from-options-volatility-by-dave-caplan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-valuopt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (262-264): The value of optimization by Louis P. Lukac and B. Wade Brorsen"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The value of optimization\nby Louis P. Lukac and B. Wade Brorsen
Optimization based on historical data is used widely in the futures industry to determine the most\nprofitable parameter sets for a trading system. The underlying premise is that if some parameter set\nworked well in the past, it should work well in the future.
Simply picking the best parameter set from historical data and stating the accompanying profit level\n(called in-sample profits) is of no real value because you cannot see into the future to know what the best\nparameter set will be. Actual or blind simulation (out-of-sample) results are always much worse than\nin-sample results, which has led many to question the value of optimization.
There seems to be little agreement on how much data should be used in optimizing parameters, how\nfrequently to re-optimize or whether optimization is even of any value at all. Even the large public futures\nfund managers who rely heavily on technical analysis cannot agree. A survey of public futures fund\nmanagers by B. Wade Brorsen and Scott H. Irwin in The Review of Futures Markets in 1987 showed that\nthe data used by advisors to select parameters ranged from all the available historical data to as little as\ntwo years worth. Their frequency of re-optimization ranged from twice a year to once every five years.\nSeveral advisors did not optimize at all, they simply used the same parameter across all commodities.
Large amounts of time and money are devoted to finding the optimal parameters for a system. With more\nand more money being managed technically, and more software available for optimization, the need to\ntest the validity or limits of optimization grows greater. An invalid framework could lead to invalid\nresults and a false sense of security, not to mention the potential loss of money.
We tested various re-optimization strategies to determine if optimization is of any value for predicting\ncorrect sets of parameters and to determine if one re-optimization strategy is better than another.\nSpecifically, we statistically compared 10 different re-optimizations to each other and to a random\nselection strategy using two different trading systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-262-264-the-value-of-optimization-by-louis-p-lukac-and-b-wade-brorsen-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-262-264-the-value-of-optimization-by-louis-p-lukac-and-b-wade-brorsen-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-262-264-the-value-of-optimization-by-louis-p-lukac-and-b-wade-brorsen-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-marting-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (265-267): Martingale money management by Robert Pelletier"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Martingale money management\nby Robert Pelletier
An age-old method used by professional gamblers may be useful to the active trader as a means of\nmoney management. A martingale, according to Webster's dictionary, is a scheme for doubling your bet\nsize following losses. The system is named after a successful 19th century gambler who frequented the\ncasinos of the French Riviera. In a converted form the idea can be transformed into a mild progression\nwhich requires a slightly increasing wager level following losing trades and an equal or decreasing unit\nwager following winning trades.
To use the progression, trade size and win level per contract are assumed to remain constant. Admittedly,\nthis assumption may not be realistic, but in the long run expected values should prevail. Another major\nassumption is that each trade is totally independent of all others.
How helpful can a martingale be? To give you an example, let's say that a martingale trade series is\nsuccessful if it eventually wins a single trading unit—one contract or a single round lot of stock. Let's\nassume that the probable outcome of each trade is 50-50, win or lose. I have shown that a martingale\nseries can improve the odds of a successful outcome from 50% to 87% with a minimum budget of four\ntimes margin plus six times average trade loss. Committing five times margin will increase the ultimate\nsuccess rate of the series of trades to over 90%.
It is always possible to improve the odds of a winning series by adding to your investment reserve.\nHowever, no level of finite capital can deliver certain success and the size of the potential loss increases\nwith the amount of capital committed."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-265-267-martingale-money-management-by-robert-pelletier-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-265-267-martingale-money-management-by-robert-pelletier-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-265-267-martingale-money-management-by-robert-pelletier-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-loops-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (268-271): Loops: static and dynamic Part 7 by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Loops: static and dynamic\nPart 7\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
This month, we develop a loop to manage the calculation of the trading range (TR 1) used in J. Welles\nWilder's Directional Movement Index (DMI) system. The previous columns developed the formula for\nline-by-line processing of this indicator using {Put} and @ Index(...) commands.
Loops are an important topic; knowing how to use them with {Put} and @ Index(...) make up one of the\nstrongest Lotus 1-2-3 tools for managing la rge amounts of data in technical anal ysis. We'll be using the\ndata i n Figure 1, taken from Wilder's book , New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.
For those of you who have been on board awhile, you will remember that the values in our spreadsheet's\nTR1 column were first calculated in the April 1988 column b y using range names. That method for\nprocessing a loop created several range names (High0, TR1, etc.) This rudimentar y loop accomplished\nthe calculations in terms of the range names, then moved them all down and recreated them for each row.
My machine took two minutes to process a mere 14 rows using this method. Phenomenal speed\nimprovement occurs using {Put} and @ Index(...), which avoid cursor movement and changes in range\nnames. For purposes of continuit y, Figure 2 is the formula as developed through the last column.
Recall that the function @ Index( Data,3,0) refers to a cell address in the rang e Data. The first number is\nthe column and the second is the ro w. In both cases, the o ffset starts counting with zero. Thus,\n@Index(Data,3,0) refers to the number 272.75, the close on 6/1/77. The o ffsets in the {Put} use the same\nconventions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-268-271-loops-static-and-dynamic-part-7-by-jim-summers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-268-271-loops-static-and-dynamic-part-7-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-268-271-loops-static-and-dynamic-part-7-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-technif-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (272-274): TechniFilter Plus Version 6 by John Sweeney and Steven Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TechniFilter Plus\nVersion 6\nby John Sweeney and Steven Notis
RTR Software Systems, Inc.
444 Executive Center Blvd., #225
El Paso, TX, 79902
(915) 544-4397
Service: Technical analysis package with advanced formula generator.
Price: $299
Equipment Required: IBM PC/XT, AT or 100% compatible; printer (type unspecified); CGA, EGA\ngraphics adapter.
Ratings:
Level of Analysis: Advanced
Ease of Use: C to A, depending on how\nlong you've used it.
Customer Service: A
Documentation: C
Reliability: A
The exciting thing about TechniFilter Plus (TF+) is its advanced formulary and so we'll focus this\nwhole review on that feature. Although other formula-generating analytical systems are being marketed\n(RTR wrote some of them), this is the package that carries the idea to the current limit in PC-based\nprograms. Traders tired of using canned indicators should read on. Introductory level analysts can skip\nthe whole thing.
Using TF+, any trading idea developed from drawing on charts probably can be expressed by a function\nor by creating a formula. That includes trendline breaks; highs and lows (or the second—not third—high\nback); filtered waves (a la Merrill), point and figure reversals; retracements and swings. Many standard\nindicators (averages, stochastics, OBV, RSI, regressions, momentum) are already programmed in TF+.\nJust call them up and run them."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-272-274-technifilter-plus-version-6-by-john-sweeney-and-steven-notis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-272-274-technifilter-plus-version-6-by-john-sweeney-and-steven-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-272-274-technifilter-plus-version-6-by-john-sweeney-and-steven-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c07-adam-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:7 (275-275): The Adam theory of markets by Lesley B. Orr"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Adam theory of markets\nby Lesley B. Orr
Author: J. Welles Wilder Jr.
Publisher: Cavida Ltd., N.C.
The Adam Theory of Markets by J. Welles Wilder Jr. is a book about \""making profits trading...any\nfreely traded markets anywhere in the world.\"" It starts from the premise, repeated many times, that \""There\nis really a lot less to trading than meets the eye.\"" It enumerates and expounds on a group of trading rules,\npresents a simplistic graphic method of predicting future price activity, walks through the anatomies of\nthree trades and even tells a fairy tale and some relevant anecdotes.
The Adam Theory discusses and develops 10 basic trading rules. These rules are not new. They are the\ntried and true fundamentals of trading. In the second chapter the author states, \""When you get through\nreading this book, you will find a lot of things that you learned in this book, you will think you always\nknew! The reason you will think you always knew them is because they are so simple.\""
The concepts reviewed in the book, however, aren't merely simple and they have been said many times in\nthe past. Some of the points, for example, directly parallel similar points stressed in the article \""Why\nLosses Occur\"" by Jesse H. Thompson in volume one, chapter five of the Technical Analysis of Stocks &\nCommodities compilation of back issues. They also mirror the 12 rules and five observations discussed\nby Barry Lind in the pamphlet \""Method Trading\"" which is given free to customers of his discount\ncommodity brokerage. Nonetheless, though they are often heard, the fundamentals certainly bear\nrepeating."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-275-275-the-adam-theory-of-markets-by-lesley-b-orr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-275-275-the-adam-theory-of-markets-by-lesley-b-orr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-7-275-275-the-adam-theory-of-markets-by-lesley-b-orr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-mendels-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (278-281): Profit taking with Mendelsohn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Profit taking with Mendelsohn
Over the years, Lou Mendelsohn has been not only a persistent presence among trading system vendors,\nhe's also stood out as one of the few who advocated complete disclosure of the systems being sold. Not\ncontent to disclose his own system, ProfitTaker, and its refinement, ProfitTuner, he's also written and\nspoken out publicly on the hazards of buying undisclosed trading systems. He's also one of the most\nrealistic voices on the fad of optimization.
With ProfitTaker now well established and his family comfortably ensconced in a Florida ranch, Lou's\nturned his attentions to—horrors!—quantifying the impact of new fundamental information on\ntradeables. To see where all this might be leading and to check on any possible softening of his opinions,\nwe corraled Lou on the phone for several hours a few months back. Here are the results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-278-281-profit-taking-with-mendelsohn-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-278-281-profit-taking-with-mendelsohn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-278-281-profit-taking-with-mendelsohn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-holtwin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (285-290): Holt-Winter Channel: taking the formula one step beyond by Ichu Cheng"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Holt-Winter Channel:\ntaking the formula one step beyond\nby Ichu Cheng
October 19,1987 witnessed the biggest one-day drop in stock prices in history. The Dow Jones\nIndustrial Average (DJIA) fell 616 points or 26% in a single day. The drop caught most investors by\nsurprise. Are there any indicators that could have warned us about the impending crash?
In Figure 1, two parallel lines run along the DJIA line and form a channel which I have developed and\nhave called the Holt-Winter Channel. A week before the crash, the DJIA price lines crossed the lower\nparallel line. This is the sell signal for the Holt-Winter Channel and it provided a timely signal for\nunloading portfolios.
The Holt-Winter Channel did not signal the severity of the drop, however, because unlike the\nHolt-Winter formula on which it is based, the channel is not intended to forecast future stock prices. The\nchannel is used as a timing device for getting in and out of a security.
Notice that in November 1986, the channel correctly signaled the major market movement of early 1987.\nA month before the crash on October 19,1987, it signaled a weakening in the market. A week before the\ncrash, it gave a sell signal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-285-290-holt-winter-channel-taking-the-formula-one-step-beyond-by-ichu-cheng-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-285-290-holt-winter-channel-taking-the-formula-one-step-beyond-by-ichu-cheng-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-285-290-holt-winter-channel-taking-the-formula-one-step-beyond-by-ichu-cheng-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-sidebh-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (285-290): SIDEBAR: Holt-Winter Channel Calculation"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Holt-Winter Channel Calculation
The Holt-Winter formula estimates the three quadratic coefficients recursively as follows:
Ft+1 = (l - a) (Ft + Vt + 0.5 At) + aCt+1
Vt+1 = (l - b) (Vt + At) + b(Ft+1 - Ft)
At+1 = (l - c) At + c (Vt+1 - Vt)
where Ct = Closing price on date t and a, b, and c are constants determined by the person performing the\nanalysis.
For simplicity, I use the Holt-Winter formula to forecast the next day's closing price. To determine the\nupper and lower boundaries of the Holt-Winter Channel, I use a comfort factor (T) value of l.0 as follows:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-285-290-sidebar-holt-winter-channel-calculation-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-285-290-sidebar-holt-winter-channel-calculation-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-285-290-sidebar-holt-winter-channel-calculation-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-peak-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (291-293): Peak performance in volatile markets, Part 1 by Neal Weintraub and Susan Arenson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Peak performance in volatile markets\nPart 1\nby Neal Weintraub and Susan Arenson
Man alone, of all the creatures of the earth, can change his own pattern. Man alone is the architect of his\nown destiny. The greatest discovery in our generation is that human beings, by changing the inner\nattitudes of their minds, can change the outer aspects of their lives.
William James
Peak performance can involve any activity where a certain level of achievement is being sought. It\ninvolves a sense of everything falling into place both mentally and physically. Dr. Jean Williams, a\nwell-known sports psychologist says that studies of the common qualities of successful athletes mention\nthe following characteristics:
•Higher self-confidence.
•More positive preoccupation with their sport, as reflected in positive self-talk, dreams and daydreams\nof sport performance.
•Better self-regulation of stress, anxiety and fears.
•Better concentration and narrowed focus of attention on the present, here-and-now task.
•Higher level of commitment to their sport."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-291-293-peak-performance-in-volatile-markets-part-1-by-neal-weintraub-and-susan-arenson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-291-293-peak-performance-in-volatile-markets-part-1-by-neal-weintraub-and-susan-arenson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-291-293-peak-performance-in-volatile-markets-part-1-by-neal-weintraub-and-susan-arenson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-macd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (294-297): MACD momentum Part 1 by Thomas Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MACD momentum\nPart 1\nby Thomas Aspray
In the fall of 1986, I completed work on a new indicator: the MACD Histogram/Momentum. As many\nof you are already aware, the MACD, or Convergence/Divergence, is an excellent indicator, but its\nsignals often lag when run on weekly data. Convergence/Divergence was developed by Gerald Appel,\nwho has created many excellent technical tools. I first presented my work on the MACD at a CompuTrac\nconference in 1984. At that time, very few analysts were aware of it, much less using it on the commodity\nmarkets. Now it is a widely used technical tool.
I have done some work on optimizing the MACD by testing various combinations of inputs for the three\nexponential moving averages. This has been discussed in previous educational articles, and, by altering\nthe moving average variables, the results are dramatically different.
For example, the default for silver ( 12 days, 26 days and 9-period exponential average of the difference)\nwere not always profitable, while the (10, 20, 9) combination was profitable 54% of the time, with an\naverage profit of 67.5 points and an average loss of only 34 points.
After studying and using MACD for almost five years, I felt that, besides optimization, a method of\nanticipating crossovers would be to my distinct advantage. After looking at (and testing) several\nalternatives, I found that by running a 10-day momentum (with 3-day smoothing) of the MACD in\nhistogram form (MACD-H), the results were quite good. For the MACD-H in these weekly charts I will\nuse 10 and 20 days for the averages with a 10-period exponential average of the difference between the\ntwo."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-294-297-macd-momentum-part-1-by-thomas-aspray-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-294-297-macd-momentum-part-1-by-thomas-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-294-297-macd-momentum-part-1-by-thomas-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-contrar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (298-300): Contrary opinion by R. Earl Hadady"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Contrary opinion\nby R. Earl Hadady
Facts are unimportant! It's what they are perceived to be that determines the course of events. That, in a\nnutshell, is what drives the principles of contrary opinion that are at work in various human activities,\nparticularly the markets.
A contrary opinion is simply the opposite of what the vast majority of people think the course of events\nwill be. For example, the principles of contrary opinion indicate that if practically everyone believes there\nis going to be a shortage of crude oil and acts accordingly by buying small cars, restricting their travel\nand similar measures, an oil glut will occur.
That's obvious, you say! If that's your comment, perhaps you've forgotten the oil crisis that we\nexperienced in 1978 and 1979 here in the United States. Perhaps you weren't lined up at the pump trying\nto buy a few gallons of gas for your car. In those dire days, the experts were predicting that the real\ncrunch was yet to occur. In the early '80s, a very knowledgeable oil geologist friend of mine told me the\noil industry had projected 1985 to be the crisis year of short supply and high prices. Contrarily, it was the\nyear in which we began to experience an oil glut and a drop in prices!
The principles of contrary opinion are equally applicable to the stock and futures markets, real estate, the\neconomy, inflation and similar financial activities. History is strewn with numerous examples of\nsituations where a contrary opinion was profitable. Two of the more widely known and often quoted\ninstances are \""The Mississippi Scheme\"" and \""Tulip Mania.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-298-300-contrary-opinion-by-r-earl-hadady-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-298-300-contrary-opinion-by-r-earl-hadady-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-298-300-contrary-opinion-by-r-earl-hadady-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-realwor-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (301-306): Real world technical analysis by Kent Calhoun"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Real world technical analysis\nby Kent Calhoun
Simplicity and common sense trading methods summarize my approach to technical analysis. The\npurpose of this article is to educate traders to view price action from a more creative perspective, starting\nwith a return to the basics of technical analysis.
In over 20 years of trading, I have tested several hundred trading systems, using computers and manual\nmethods. The common denominator for the most successful systems is simplicity. In this series, I will\ndescribe a number of systems, but any trading method or system presented here should be thoroughly\ntested by the reader before trading in the markets.
Role of a technical analyst
The philosophy of a technician is that all fundamental information is contained in current price levels,\nand that price history often repeats itself with distinct characteristics. Charts are people-patterns. What\npeople believe, and how strongly they believe it, is reflected in price, volume and open interest figures.\nFor every buyer who believes the price will rise, there is another person who is convinced the price will\nfall. Prices, like flowing water and most people, always seek the path of least resistance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-301-306-real-world-technical-analysis-by-kent-calhoun-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-301-306-real-world-technical-analysis-by-kent-calhoun-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-301-306-real-world-technical-analysis-by-kent-calhoun-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-mktentr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (307-308): Market entry with action/reaction lines by Ron Jaenisch"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market entry with action/reaction lines\nby Ron Jaenisch
Action/Reaction lines are a charting technique developed in the early 1900s by Roger Babson, who\nfounded the Babson Business Institute in Massachusetts and believed Newton's laws of gravity affected\nthe markets.
At the heart of the Action/Reaction Method is the age-old physical sciences law that every action has an\nequal and opposite reaction. In its simplest form, the Action/Reaction Method shows a trader when and\nwhere to add on positions if a market is in a strong trend.
This is accomplished by drawing peak-to-low Action/Reaction Lines on a price chart, a simple technique\nthat starts by finding two major and recent pivots: a high and a low. When you connect the peak and low,\nyou have what is called the center line (Figure 1).
Locate earlier pivot points and from each draw a line parallel to center line. These are the Action lines\n(Figure 2).
On the opposite side of the center line, draw Reaction lines—one for each Action line and the same\ndistance as the Action line from the center line (Figure 3)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-307-308-market-entry-with-action-reaction-lines-by-ron-jaenisch-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-307-308-market-entry-with-action-reaction-lines-by-ron-jaenisch-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-307-308-market-entry-with-action-reaction-lines-by-ron-jaenisch-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-defini-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (309-312): Defining directional movement Part 8 by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Defining directional movement\nPart 8\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
Given the old adage that \""the trend is your friend\"" and that most trading systems follow trends, J.\nWelles Wilder's Directional Movement Index (DMI) lets you measure whether a trend is in effect and its\nstrength. To develop DMI, we first measure the amount of daily directional movement (DM) within the\ntrue range (TR1) and record its direction (+ or -). As we found with the true range, exactness in\ndefinitions comes before programming.
Directional movement is either up or down. Up days are those trading days in which the intraday high\nexceeds the previous day's intraday high (Figure 1). The DM is positive and, in Figure 1, equals price C\nminus price A. If this had been an outside day—meaning the low also was lower than the previous day's\nlow—then the amount by which the prior day's high was exceeded must be greater than the amount by\nwhich the prior day's low was exceeded. In other words, in Figure 1, C - A must be greater than D - B. A\nlimit day follows the same formula as an up day. the amount of directional movement would be C - A.
The reverse of these three formulas holds true for down days, as Figure 2 illustrates.
There is no directional movement on an inside day (Figure 3), where the high is lower than the prior day's\nhigh and the low is higher than the prior day's low. An extremely rare day with no movement is an\noutside day in which the difference between the two days' highs exactly equals the difference between the\nlows. Wilder does not mention this possibility in his book on DMI, New Concepts in Technical Trading\nSystems, but the Lotus 1-2-3 program manages it properly."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-309-312-defining-directional-movement-part-8-by-jim-summers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-309-312-defining-directional-movement-part-8-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-309-312-defining-directional-movement-part-8-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-kroll-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (313-313): Kroll on futures trading strategy by Dr. Alexander Elder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Kroll on futures trading strategy\nby Dr. Alexander Elder
Author: Stanley Kroll
Publisher: Dow Jones-Irwin
1818 Ridge Road
Homewood, IL 60430
Contents: 203 pages, hardbound
Price: $29.95
Stanley Kroll is reputed to have taken seven-figure profits out of the inflationary markets of the 1970s.\nHe also wrote two good market books in those days: The Commodity Futures Market Guide (with Irwin\nShishko) and The Professional Commodity Trader. Kroll spent the next several years traveling in Europe\nand writing books on sailing. He returned to the U.S. and the futures markets in the mid-1980s.
A number of important points covered in Kroll's earlier works are repeated in his new book: identify the\nlong-term trend and trade only in its direction; don't overcomplicate your system; follow technical factors\nrather than fundamentals; focus on trend-following rather than predicting; etc., etc.
Kroll also makes several good observations on the psychology of trading. He describes a \""potent\nadrenaline rush of fear\"" when you are caught on the losing side of a trade. He shows how a trader's mind\nbecomes clouded by emotion, making real-time trading more treacherous than paper trading.
The book reprints many long-term weekly continuation charts which confirm the importance of long-term\nmarket outlook. Kroll advises patience and quotes his hero, Jesse Livermore, as saying: \""Big profits are\nmade by sitting,\"" and \""Once a major trend develops, it tends to pick up momentum, increasingly feeding\non its own strength or weakness,\"" and \""Trying to pick off tops or bottoms against strongly entrenched\nprice trends is invariable dangerous to one's financial health.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-313-313-kroll-on-futures-trading-strategy-by-dr-alexander-elder-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-313-313-kroll-on-futures-trading-strategy-by-dr-alexander-elder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-313-313-kroll-on-futures-trading-strategy-by-dr-alexander-elder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c08-comput-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:8 (314-315): Computing curved trendlines by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Computing curved trendlines\nby Arthur Merrill
Data sometimes shows a tendency to level off with a downward curve. A curved trendline, in these\ncases, would be more useful than a straight line.
Quite often, the data rises more and more rapidly, like a skyrocket. If this is the case, a curved trendline\nwould be more useful than a straight line.
The upward curving tendency may be caused by the distortion of the arithmetic scale, which makes a\ngiven percent increase appear large at the top of a chart and small at the bottom. This distortion can be\ncured by using a logarithmic scale and then a straight line might be appropriately used. This \""fitting\"" can\nalso be done by adding another column to the spreadsheet introduced in the previous issue and computing\nthe logarithms of the data. The straight line is then fitted to the plotted logarithms.
Curved trendlines can be drawn freehand or fitted approximately with the aid of a french curve. They also\ncan be fitted mathematically using the least squares method which was described in my column last\nmonth. A popular curve for this purpose is the second degree parabola or second degree potential series\nwith the formula:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-314-315-computing-curved-trendlines-by-arthur-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-314-315-computing-curved-trendlines-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-8-314-315-computing-curved-trendlines-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-tradfac-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (318-321): The trade facilitation factor by Donald L. Jones"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The trade facilitation factor\nby Donald L. Jones
A cardinal rule for traders using the Chicago Board of Trade's daily Liquidity Data Bank report is to\navoid markets that are not \""facilitating\"" trade. Over a period of days, such markets are characterized by\ndecreasing volume, a narrowing of the trading range and an increasing number of Time-Price\nOpportunities (TPOs) per tick. Sometimes market changes are gradual; so gradual, in fact, that even an\nexpert might have trouble recognizing the shift from trade facilitation to non-facilitation.
For the average trader who must distill a market overview into a trading decision at a particular point in\ntime, a quantifiable, measurable way of determining the level of trade facilitation at any time could be\nvery helpful. Recent research at Commodity Information Services (CISCO) indicates that by using two\nwithin-the-day variables—TPOs and ticks—it is possible to define a reliable measure of trade facilitation\nas the trading day unfolds.
The Trade Facilitation Factors (TFFs) in Figure 1 are based on the cumulative, daily TPO count. The\nTFFs in Figure 2 are based on cumulative tick count and provide a cross-check on the TFFs determined\nby TPO count. Figure 3 calculates TFFs according to the ratio of TPOs to ticks and serves as a third\nreference.
These TFF tables can be generated by hand, although the large number of strictly arithmetic operations\nmakes it more convenient to use a computer spreadsheet. To build Figures 1 through 3, we started with\n210 days of T-bond Liquidity Data Bank (LDB) reports from mid-October 1986 through August 24,\n1987. Over that time frame there were both up and down markets, quiet markets and very active markets.\nAny other period would have done as well, so long as a variety of market conditions and activity levels\nwere covered. As time goes by, adding more days to this study will foster some modification. However,\nbecause of the broad database, large changes seem unlikely and Figures 1 through 3, as given, will\nprobably be valid for quite a while."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-318-321-the-trade-facilitation-factor-by-donald-l-jones-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-318-321-the-trade-facilitation-factor-by-donald-l-jones-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-318-321-the-trade-facilitation-factor-by-donald-l-jones-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-planeta-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (324-327): Planetary analysis by Bill Meridian"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Planetary analysis\nby Bill Meridian
Little do managers of the nation's financial institutions and brokerage houses know but there is a strong\nunderground of astrological and astrophysical analysts in their companies. Since publishing our first\narticle in this area (see March and October 1987, Stocks & Commodities), a number of them have\nwritten to tell what they really use to come up with their recommendations. One who was with a\nbrokerage at the time volunteered to write this instructional article under a pseudonym — Editor
Many technicians have followed the market's trail of bread crumbs to cycle analysis over the past few\ndecades. The sometimes repetitive nature of price movements has an allure that can attract the greatest\nskeptics. I became interested in cycles in the late '60s and began to notice similarities between market\ncycles and planetary periods.
My interest truly ignited in the early '70s when an individual passed on an observation from an Indian\nmetals trader: gold prices tend to peak when the Jupiter is 90 degrees from Neptune (geocentrically).\nConsulting a book of planetary positions (an ephemeris), I saw that the phenomenon was approaching in\nApril 1974. With the private ownership of gold on the horizon, a good technical base in place and a\nstrong uptrend under way, a reversal seemed unlikely to most observers. When gold failed to penetrate\n$200 and promptly gave back about one-half its value, I decided to take a closer look. The purpose of this\narticle is to provide an introduction to this type of analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-324-327-planetary-analysis-by-bill-meridian-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-324-327-planetary-analysis-by-bill-meridian-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-324-327-planetary-analysis-by-bill-meridian-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-intrada-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (328-329): Intraday trading techniques by John W. Labuszewski and John E. Nyhoff"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Intraday trading techniques\nby John W. Labuszewski and John E. Nyhoff
Many analysts find that the charting techniques that they rely on for inter-day trading are somewhat\nless useful on an intraday basis. As a result, these analysts often rely on other charting methods, including\npoint and figure charting and \""pivot point analysis.\""
Point and figure charting
Point and figure charting is a frequently referenced charting technique which may be used to plot price\nfluctuations on an interday or an intraday basis. For our purposes, however, we will restrict our\nconsideration to intraday data.
Point and figure charts are characterized by a series of Xs and Os arranged in columns (Figure 1). The Xs\nrepresent price advances while Os represent price declines. Point and figure charts are considered useful\nbecause, if properly constructed, they filter out spurious price fluctuations. Because of this intrinsic\nfiltering mechanism, the chart does not provide full information with respect to all (or at least small)\nprice fluctuations. Nor does it provide any information with respect to the time at which particular\nfluctuations took place.
Let us consider how one might construct a point and figure chart and interpret it. One begins a point and\nfigure chart with a piece of graph paper showing a series of columns and rows. The next and most critical\nstep is to identify one's \""box size\"" and \""reversal\"" criterion."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-328-329-intraday-trading-techniques-by-john-w-labuszewski-and-john-e-nyhoff-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-328-329-intraday-trading-techniques-by-john-w-labuszewski-and-john-e-nyhoff-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-328-329-intraday-trading-techniques-by-john-w-labuszewski-and-john-e-nyhoff-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-peak-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (330-332): Peak performance in volatile markets Part 2 by Susan Arenson and Neal Weintraub"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Peak performance in volatile markets\nPart 2\nby Susan Arenson and Neal Weintraub
In any area of pursuit, setting goals can give you a greater sense of direction, help you feel more\nproductive, better mobilize your efforts and direct your attention to the task at hand. When you set trading\ngoals you not only reinforce your persistence in developing trading skills, but you may decrease your\ntrading anxiety because you are focusing on learning to become a more disciplined trader rather than on a\nmega-bucks outcome.
You can use the following guidelines to set your trading goals:
- Set performance or process goals rather than \""content\"" goals. Define your success as improvement\nand mastery rather than making loads of money, which is an outcome goal. Outcome goals can be\nproblematic for two reasons: Despite using a system diligently, a trader has only partial control\nover the direction of a trade. The failure to meet an outcome goal also may decrease flexibility\nwhen setting goals in the future.
- State your goal specifically with a corresponding timeframe for achievement. For example, rather\nthan state that you want to \""make a lot of money,\"" your goal might be to \""trade S&P minis for the\nnext six months until I can show a neutral or positive money outcome for three contracts in a row.\""
- Goals must be realistic yet challenging. Their difficulty is based on your own ability, time and\ncommitment to trading. Assess your past performance and project into the future. If you've never\ntraded a particular market before, your first goal is to learn how it works by observing the\nexchange, consulting with traders who trade it regularly and, finally, reading about it. Your next\ngoal could be to begin trading according to the first guideline."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-330-332-peak-performance-in-volatile-markets-part-2-by-susan-arenson-and-neal-weintraub-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-330-332-peak-performance-in-volatile-markets-part-2-by-susan-arenson-and-neal-weintraub-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-330-332-peak-performance-in-volatile-markets-part-2-by-susan-arenson-and-neal-weintraub-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-daytrad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (333-336): Day trading and short-term trading techniques Part 2 by Kent Calhoun"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Day trading and short-term trading techniques\nPart 2\nby Kent Calhoun
In my three years of day trading markets in Chicago, not one person who opened an account strictly for\nday trading purposes lasted more than six months. Yet, the most successful traders held positions for a\nshort-term period. Many people were good day traders but commissions and market slippage eventually\ntook their toll.
Consider the type of trading you will pursue to achieve commodity profits. The day trader and short-term\ntrader, especially, must contend with significant physical and psychological adjustments.
To me, the market is always in the process of achieving new highs/lows on five distinct levels (Figure 1).\nThese levels are defined by the length of time during which the high or low occurs:
•Major - 26 calendar weeks with lower/higher prices for at least 10 calendar weeks before and after\nthe highest/lowest price.
•Intermediate - 6 calendar weeks with lower/higher prices for at least 12 trading days before and\nafter the highest/lowest price.
•Minor - 12 trading days with lower/higher prices for at least 5 trading days before and after the\nhighest/lowest price.
•Short-term - 5 trading days with lower/higher prices for at least 2 trading days before and after the\nhighest/lowest price.
•Intraday - The high and low for each single trading day."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-333-336-day-trading-and-short-term-trading-techniques-part-2-by-kent-calhoun-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-333-336-day-trading-and-short-term-trading-techniques-part-2-by-kent-calhoun-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-333-336-day-trading-and-short-term-trading-techniques-part-2-by-kent-calhoun-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-playing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (337-339): Playing the opening range breakout Part 1 by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Playing the opening range breakout\nPart 1\nby Toby Crabel
Opening range breakout is one of the most important indicators of daily market direction that a trader\ncan utilize.
An opening range breakout (ORB) is a trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the\nopening range. When the predetermined amount (the \""stretch\"") is computed, a buy stop is placed that\namount above the high of the opening range and a sell stop is placed the same amount below the low of\nthe opening range. The first stop that is traded is the position and the other stop is a protective stop.
The stretch is determined by looking at the previous 10 days and averaging the differences between the\nopen for each day and the closest extreme to the open on each day.
In a market with a strong bias in one direction or just after a clear supply or demand indication, a trade in\nonly one direction is taken. This is called an Opening Range Breakout Preference (ORBP). The only\norder entered is the stop in the direction of the entry. The protective stop is entered only after the trade\nhas been entered.
If the market trades to the stretch in the opposite direction first, the preference is nullified and the resting\norder is cancelled. This requires you to monitor the market during the session. Intraday market\nmonitoring is not a sacrifice by any means and enhances the system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-337-339-playing-the-opening-range-breakout-part-1-by-toby-crabel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-337-339-playing-the-opening-range-breakout-part-1-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-337-339-playing-the-opening-range-breakout-part-1-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-behavio-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (340-345): Behavior of the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index by Cliff Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Behavior of the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock\nIndex\nby Cliff Sherry, Ph.D.
Is it stationary, random or independent?
Editor's note: In preparing for magazine publication, this article has been heavily condensed. Some\ninsights that were peripheral to the S&P's characteristics were deleted as were most comments on\nstatistical technique. Readers can find many technical details in previous S&C articles by Dr. Sherry.\nDetails of Dr. Sherry's calculations are available from him at (409) 823-0618
Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index is important for a number of reasons. First it is used as a gauge of\ngeneral stock market performance. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average is quoted more often. Second,\nit is one of the 12 component time series of the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Third,\nit is traded on the futures market of the International Monetary Market of the Chicago Merchantile\nExchange.
As an index, it measures the percentage change in market value (10) compared to a base period, the years\n1941-1943. The 500 stocks in the index fall into four major groups: 400 industrials, 40 utilities, 20\ntransportations and 40 financials. These companies are not always the largest in their sectors but they do\nrepresent large capitalization stocks with blue chip qualities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-340-345-behavior-of-the-standard-poor-s-500-stock-index-by-cliff-sherry-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-340-345-behavior-of-the-standard-poor-s-500-stock-index-by-cliff-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-340-345-behavior-of-the-standard-poor-s-500-stock-index-by-cliff-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-sidebm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (340-345): SIDEBAR: Money supply and the S&P 500"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Money supply and the S&P 500
I suspect most economists would say that M2 money supply and the S&P 500 are independent of each\nother. Here is evidence that there are significant serial dependencies between these two important time\nseries.
For illustration, trigger the collection of data in the histogram on a large increase (a '3') in money supply.\nCollect in the histogram, the first sequential large decrease (a '1') to occur in S&P 500 after the trigger\n(Article Figure 9). If these two time series were independent of each other, the distribution of 1s in this\nhistogram should be evenly distributed among the months. This is not the case.
The second sequential 1 (Article Figure 10) also is not evenly distributed. Even the fifth sequential large\ndecrease in the S&P 500 after a large increase ('3') in money supply is not evenly distributed (Article\nFigure 11)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-340-345-sidebar-money-supply-and-the-s-p-500-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-340-345-sidebar-money-supply-and-the-s-p-500-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-340-345-sidebar-money-supply-and-the-s-p-500-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-macdmom-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (346-349): MACD momentum Part 2 by Thomas Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MACD momentum\nPart 2\nby Thomas Aspray
Last month I looked at how the MACD Momentum (MACD-Mo) and MACD Histogram (MACD-H)\nwere excellent intermediate indicators for stocks as well as commodities. I also use the MACD-Mo and\nMACD-H on daily data, but the rules of interpretation and timing with the daily studies are somewhat\ndifferent. In this article I will concentrate on daily activity in many of the major markets to help you\nutilize MACD studies in your own analysis.
To utilize the MACD studies on daily data, it is imperative that you study the intermediate trend as\ndetermined by weekly indicators. Several indicators such as the Herrick Payoff Index, Demand Oscillator\nand on-balance volume can be used effectively with the weekly MACD-Mo and MACD-H.
For trading purposes, combine both the weekly and the daily MACD-Mo and MACD-H to determine\nhow much weight the individual signals should be given. For example, when the weekly MACD-H and\nMACD-Mo are both positive, short-term peaks in the MACD-Mo should be used as a signal to exit longs\nand wait for new signals on the long side.
Conversely, if both the weekly indicators are negative, then short-term tops in the MACD-Mo should be\nused to initiate short-term positions. If the weekly MACD-Mo is declining while the MACD-H is still\npositive and rising, then more weight is given to the MACD-H.
On the daily charts, short-term positive signals by MACD-Mo should be confirmed in two to five days\nusing buy signals from MACD-H. Failure of MACD-H to confirm MACD-Mo is consistent with a\ntechnical rebound, not the start of another leg to the upside. In addition, longer-term divergences (i.e., 4-8\nweeks on the daily charts and 4-6 months on the weekly charts) on the MACD-Mo and MACD-H are\nvery important."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-346-349-macd-momentum-part-2-by-thomas-aspray-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-346-349-macd-momentum-part-2-by-thomas-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-346-349-macd-momentum-part-2-by-thomas-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-finish-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (350-353): Finishing DMI calculations Part 9 by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Finishing DMI calculations\nPart 9\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
Having completed the lengthiest formulas that J. Welles Wilder developed in his Directional\nMovement Index (DMI) system, in this issue we'll complete the calculations for the basic DMI system.\nFuture enhancements to the system will illustrate the customization power of Lotus 1-2-3.
The formulas we've already developed calculate the daily true range and the amount of daily +/-\ndirectional movement. Wilder calculates a 14-day moving average for each—the choice of 14 represents\nhis sense of an average half-cycle period for the contracts he trades. His experience showed that a 28-day\ncycle prevailed. Most software uses 14 days as the default. Like those professional systems, we have the\nfreedom to change the default. Unfortunately, when Wilder published this system back in 1978 he was\nusing a calculator. This led him to take shortcuts in the calculations to avoid rekeying 14 days worth of\ndata each day. The standard moving sum or averaging procedure drops the most distant day or other time\nperiod and adds the new day or time period to the series of numbers. Instead of dropping the most distant\nvalue, Wilder divided the prior sum by 14, subtracted that number from the total, and then added the new\nnumber. The formula for the 14-day sum of the Trading Range (TR14) reads:
Today's TR14 = Previous TR14 - (Previous TR14/14) + TR1
where the first TR14 = the sum of the first 14 TR1s, and TR1 = the most recent daily trading range."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-350-353-finishing-dmi-calculations-part-9-by-jim-summers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-350-353-finishing-dmi-calculations-part-9-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-350-353-finishing-dmi-calculations-part-9-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v06-c09-advance-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-6-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.6:9 (354-355): Advance-decline divergence as an oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Advance-decline divergence as an oscillator\nby Arthur A. Merrill
Which indicators signaled the crash last October? One that had been shouting a warning was A-D\nDivergence. This is one of our most venerable indicators. The Advance-Decline Divergence Oscillator\n(ADDO) is a recent refinement.
A-D, advance minus decline, was first suggested by Col. Leonard Ayers of the Cleveland Trust Company\nin 1926. He was searching for a way to locate buying and selling climaxes. The indicator is a simple\ncumulation of the difference between the number of stocks advancing or declining in a day.
This indicator usually is coincident with the market, but tends to lag behind a buying or selling climax.\nAnalyst James Hughes suggested this might be caused by the fact A-D includes preferred and money-rate\nstocks which don't catch the market climax.
The usual way to note divergence is the eyeball method: a curve of the index is visually compared to a\ncurve of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This is too subjective for my taste. The degree of\ndivergence depends on the skill of the observer. Another difficulty is that the curves are disparate. One is\nin dollars, the other is a simple cumulation of numbers. The cumulation could start anywhere. Because of\nthese differences, a simple oscillator based on differences or on percentages is unsatisfactory."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-354-355-advance-decline-divergence-as-an-oscillator-by-arthur-a-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-354-355-advance-decline-divergence-as-an-oscillator-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-6-9-354-355-advance-decline-divergence-as-an-oscillator-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c02-scalp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7.2 (50-52): Trading & scalping techniques by John Hill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading & scalping techniques\nby John Hill
Scalping techniques for off-floor traders abound. Here I'll present some that I've found worthy over\nmany years of trading. I do not claim many original thoughts in this. I gratefully appreciate the work of\nmany pioneers in technical analysis too numerous to mention. What I have done is contribute some\ncreativity and reduce theoretical aspects to particle application. To understand these techniques, one of\nthe first terms you'll need to know is pivot point. A pivot point is the highest/lowest point reached in a\nswing prior to the penetration of the low/high of the top day (Figure 1). A swing is the movement from\none pivot point to the next.
Parallel movement
The first scalping technique is the parallel movement method (Figure 2). This method can be used during\na sustained advance or decline to exploit normal retracements . The basic idea is that movement CD\nshould equal AB. The most profitable trades are ones where the position is taken in the first 25% of the\nmove from point C.
Here are the rules:
...
Use this when trading with the trend and don't attempt to catch the small counter moves. You want the\nfull swings. This technique may require several entry attempts, particularly if the correction is complex.\nAlso, be aware that a commodity often will fluctuate 25% of a projected movement during a day and still\nnot change directions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-50-52-trading-scalping-techniques-by-john-hill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-50-52-trading-scalping-techniques-by-john-hill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-50-52-trading-scalping-techniques-by-john-hill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c02-nsquare-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7.2 (62-66): Product Review: N-Squared Analytic Software by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""N-Squared\nAnalytic Software
N-Squared's software doesn't get the respect it deserves. Its formula generator handles any type of\nnumerical data, not just high-low-close-volume-open interest. It also comes with capabilities for getting\nall that fundamental and market data, something, only one other retail package that I know of even attempts—and they don't let you manipulate it once you've got it. Coupled with a smooth AutoRUN\nfeature, deft help in building the indicators and solid graphics, N-Squared is a strong contender for an\nanalyst ready to put his or her own ideas into practice.
However, to save your time, read no further if you don't want to \""roll your own\"" indicators. This\npackage bridges the big gap from intermediate-level packages where formula generators are not included\n(because the customers don't want or can't build them) and advanced packages where formula generation\nand systems testing are key features."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-62-66-product-review-n-squared-analytic-software-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-62-66-product-review-n-squared-analytic-software-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-62-66-product-review-n-squared-analytic-software-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c01-intopit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:1 (13-15): Into the Pit by Joseph Wilson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Into the Pit\nby Joseph Wilson
In December 1985, I was approved for membership to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. I obtained a\nmembership to the Index and Options Market, which gave me the right to trade the S&P 500 futures. Let\nme digress for a moment. As you may already be aware, the S&P 500 futures have taken the brunt of the\nheat from the regulators who are looking for a scapegoat for the October 1987 crash in the stock market. I\ndisagree with their criticisms, but that is another story.
The \""big guys\"" trade the futures market in two ways: first, as a hedge for the stock portfolios and second,\nin arbitrage situations, taking advantage of short-term disparities between the cash and futures prices. The\nplayers in this pit are huge, sometimes trading 2,000 to 3,000 contracts at a time. Yes, Virginia, this pit is\nthe big time where millionaires and paupers are created daily. The difference between the first and second\ncan be based on decisions made in a few seconds.
And now to continue: Upon receiving approval for membership I had to pick out a broker's badge to wear\non my jacket while on the floor. The badge is about 3 inches by 4 inches and contains no more than three\nletters. This is your ID for other traders. When you complete a trade it is processed with your floor badge\nID on it. I picked DOW (for Dow Jones Industrials) and, because no other member had it, I got it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-13-15-into-the-pit-by-joseph-wilson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-13-15-into-the-pit-by-joseph-wilson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-13-15-into-the-pit-by-joseph-wilson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c01-logarit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:1 (16-20): Logarithmic point and figure charts by Luis Ballesca Loyo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Logarithmic point and figure charts\nby Luis Ballesca Loyo
During the early development of technical analysis, almost all types of graphing methods used the\narithmetic values of prices for charting. Not so long ago, it became a common practice to construct charts\nor graphs using a logarithmic scale. Experience has shown me that this proportional scale has many\nadvantages over the arithmetic method when it comes to analyzing price formations and market\ntendencies.
Actually, using point and figure charting clearly shows the difference between graphing on the arithmetic\nscale and graphing on logarithmic scale. When using an arithmetic scale as in Figure 1, every X and O\ncorresponds to an equal, nominal amount of change in price. That is, every X and O represents an equal\nchange in dollars.
When using a logarithmic scale, we chart the proportional, not nominal, change in price. However, by\ncharting proportional variations in price change, we face the problem of having to change the scale often\nto maintain proportionality. This is a tedious and nearly impossible task, though some interesting\nvariable-scale strategies have been developed.
To overcome this proportionality problem, I chart the values using a proportionality criteria for the box\nsize and reversal patterns, as shown in Figure 2. This way, every X and O corresponds to an equal and\nproportional change in price. That is, every box represents an equal percentage change."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-16-20-logarithmic-point-and-figure-charts-by-luis-ballesca-loyo-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-16-20-logarithmic-point-and-figure-charts-by-luis-ballesca-loyo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-16-20-logarithmic-point-and-figure-charts-by-luis-ballesca-loyo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c01-stockhe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:1 (21-25): Stock hedge portfolios: A strategy for all seasons by Larry Christy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock hedge portfolios: A strategy for all seasons\nby Larry Christy
If you're looking for a conservative way to make substantial profits in any kind of market environment,\nyou may want to consider common stock hedge portfolios. By balancing an equal amount of your capital\nin long and short stock positions, you can reduce market risk and take advantage of the ability of some\nstocks to outperform other stocks.
For an example of the theory behind this strategy, just check The Wall Street Journal's listing of\nyesterday's biggest percentage gainers and losers among common stocks. On any given day, there are\nlikely to be some stocks that have gone up considerably in price and some stocks that have dropped\ndrastically in price. If you had previously bought the stock with the best gain and simultaneously shorted\nan equal dollar amount of the worst loser, your profit would have been the sum of the two percentage\nchanges. On most days that would be in the 20%-to-40% profit range—far more than most investors\nusually make in an entire year.
I don't know of any reliable technique for picking the best and worst stocks on a daily basis, but I can\nshow you how you can profit from the same basic strategy for conservative longer term investing. To get\nstarted you will need:
• A margin account with a stock brokerage firm. Although you do not need to incur any margin debt\nor interest expense for a hedge portfolio, brokers will require a margin account for handling your\nshort sales.
• Enough capital to make it possible to diversify your positions among 10 to 25 common stocks on\nboth the long and short side.
• A reliable stock selection method that identified both potential winners and losers.
• A few minutes a week to review your portfolio and possibly make occasional adjustments."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-21-25-stock-hedge-portfolios-a-strategy-for-all-seasons-by-larry-christy-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-21-25-stock-hedge-portfolios-a-strategy-for-all-seasons-by-larry-christy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-21-25-stock-hedge-portfolios-a-strategy-for-all-seasons-by-larry-christy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c01-wswinde-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:1 (26-27): The Wall Street Week index by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Wall Street Week index\nby Arthur A. Merrill
Every six months I have been checking the accuracy of more than 40 indicators over a span of several\nyears. On the last test, the indicator that came out on top was the Wall Street Week Technical Market\nIndicator (WSW Index) reported on the Wall Street Week public television program.
In the test, the scores are in the form of a batting average. Each indicator is asked each week whether it is\nbullish or bearish, and the number of times this opinion is right or wrong is determined by the direction\nof the market in the next 13 weeks, six months or a year.
In the last 10-year test period, the WSW Index was 70.6% accurate in forecasting 13 weeks ahead, 78.5%\naccurate over 26 weeks, and 80.7% accurate forecasting one year in the future (Figure 1 ). These scores\nwere checked for significance with the chi square test and found to be highly significant. They wouldn't\nhave been obtained by chance in many thousands of repetitions of over the 10-year period.
The WSW Index is a consensus index of the diffusion type, using 10 market indicators. The index\nnumber is calculated by subtracting the number of bearish indicators from the number that are bullish.\nFor example, if in a certain week, five indicators were bullish, four neutral and one bearish, the net score\nfor the WSW index would be (5-1)=4
The WSW index was created and has been improved through the years by Robert Nurock, who has been\na regular panelist on the television program since its inception in 1970. He includes a discussion of the\nindex and its prospects in his newsletter The Astute Investor. For interpretation, he recommends this scale:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-26-27-the-wall-street-week-index-by-arthur-a-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-26-27-the-wall-street-week-index-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-26-27-the-wall-street-week-index-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c01-options-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:1 (28-29): Options: Let price come to you by Jerry Kopf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Options: Let price come to you\nby Jerry Kopf
The average retail trader's first option transaction is often profitable—but rarely do rookie option\ntraders know the actual reason behind their profits. Call it beginner's luck. If they win at first, they think\nthey are walking on water. They annualize one week's return and start planning an early semi-retirement.
Once luck ends, a newcomer's limited experience along with the swiftness of price movement causes a\nrash of painful losses. The undeniable fact is there is no quick method to learn to trade well and\nconsistently be on the plus side. Call it tuition, if you will.
One thing to learn is: don't chase price. From Figure 1 you'll see that often it doesn't pay to chase the\nprice of an option. Traders who habitually \""take shots\"" and pay up usually overpay for a call or a put\nrelative to the option's fair value. Chasing forces them to surrender the edge, so the life cycle for 85% of\noptions chasers is no longer than 18 months.
From Figure 1, recognize that each trading day the intraday price most often ranges one to two points for\nmost at-the-money front-month options. The price of your fill often makes the difference between a profit\nand a loss."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-28-29-options-let-price-come-to-you-by-jerry-kopf-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-28-29-options-let-price-come-to-you-by-jerry-kopf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-28-29-options-let-price-come-to-you-by-jerry-kopf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c01-complet-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:1 (30-34): Completing the DMI rules by Jim Summers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Completing the DMI rules\nby Jim Summers
Finally, after these many months, the Lotus Command Language code to reproduce Wilder's\nDirectional Movement Index system (DMI) reaches an end. In using Wilder's DMI to teach readers of\nStocks & Commodities how to program Lotus, we've come a long way. Starting with the simplest of\nmacros, we're now into programming at a fairly high level and have used a number of techniques,\nincluding debugging strategies. Recent comments by Dr. A.O.T. Fayiga (S&C, November 1988) show\nthat different programming methods can reach the same goals, something affirmed by everyone who uses\nLotus extensively. With a few enhancements that we'll discuss in this column, you now have a trading\nsystem that can make money and operates easily. Let's briefly review the DMI rules provided by Wilder\nin his book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems:
Entry Rules:
...
Exit Rules:
...
Programming to follow these rules for the September 1986 S&P 500 contract — and these rules only —\nproduces the output you see in Figure 1. (The complete set of contract prices were printed in the\nDecember 1988 issue and, to additionally save space, I hid several columns in Figure 1.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-30-34-completing-the-dmi-rules-by-jim-summers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-30-34-completing-the-dmi-rules-by-jim-summers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-30-34-completing-the-dmi-rules-by-jim-summers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c01-breadth-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:1 (9-12): Technical Index measures market breadth by William Mason"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical Index measures market breadth\nby William Mason
There are numerous driving forces in the stock market such as inflation, interest rates, earnings, trade\ndeficit, fear and greed. The final output from the driving forces behind the stock market are the various\nindices such as the NYSE Composite. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500.
These are fine indices for measuring the market results, but quite removed from the input side of the\nequation. Some technicians try to build models around these variables with varying degrees of success.\nWhat I wanted, instead, was the intermediate or transition variables between the input driving forces and\nthe output monetary indices (Figure 1).
The historical standard that fit my definition was the advance minus decline line. Some technicians keep\ntrack of advancing volume-declining volume and new highs minus new lows, but nowhere could I find an\nintegration of these variables (which all seem very important to market performance) into an overall\nmarket breadth index.
To fill the void, I created the Technical Index about a year and a half ago and have been using it as a\nmaster market breadth index. Like any index you can perform all the standard technical analysis\ntechniques on it (stochastics, momentum, oscillators, cash flow, Relative Strength Index)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-9-12-technical-index-measures-market-breadth-by-william-mason-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-9-12-technical-index-measures-market-breadth-by-william-mason-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-1-9-12-technical-index-measures-market-breadth-by-william-mason-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-dofunds-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (323-325): Do funds distort price movements? by B. Wade Brorsen and Scott H. Irwin"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Do funds distort price movements?\nby B. Wade Brorsen and Scott H. Irwin
The rapid rise of large-scale technical trading by futures funds has led to a concern that such trading\ncould distort futures price movements. Our previous research shows that quite different technical trading\nsystems do, in fact, signal trades on the same day a significant amount of the time. Whether this\nsimilarity is actually translated into price-distorting trading depends on the total size of trading and the\nparticular trading techniques of futures fund trading advisors.
We surveyed the 32 largest public futures fund advisory groups in February 1986 to better measure the\nsize of their positions in each contract and investigate the similarity of their techniques. The 32 advisors\nrepresented 50% of all advisors in December 1985 and managed slightly less than 80% of the public\nfutures funds listed.
Twenty-one of those surveyed responded and the average respondent was 42 years old and highly\neducated. Of the 25 individuals responding (some funds are co-managed), all had attended college and\nonly four did not have degrees. Seven had doctorates and most had degrees in business, engineering,\nphysics or mathematics."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-323-325-do-funds-distort-price-movements-by-b-wade-brorsen-and-scott-h-irwin-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-323-325-do-funds-distort-price-movements-by-b-wade-brorsen-and-scott-h-irwin-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-323-325-do-funds-distort-price-movements-by-b-wade-brorsen-and-scott-h-irwin-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-betterw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (326-330): A better way to smooth data by J.S. Payne, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""A better way to smooth data\nby J.S. Payne, Ph.D.
What every trader desires is indicators that give strong signals with no misleading period-to period\njitter, or noise. We all know what noise is to a trader, but let's restate it. Noise is something in your data\nthat happens so quickly you can't take advantage of it. Noise is \""high frequency\"" data not indicative of\nprice movement sustained through several time periods. For a day trader, this could be a price spike\nshown in a one-minute bar chart. For an overnight trader, noise could be a price spike that occurred as a\nfalse breakout on a single day.
Many methods are used to separate the noise from the more meaningful price trends. The most popular\nremains moving averages, which combine the data from a set of periods and lower the significance of any\none piece of data. If we can measure noise quantitatively then we can directly compare the \""noise\nremoval efficiency\"" of different types of moving averages. Traders have used moving averages for many\nyears to reduce noise in their data, but with two penalties. The first and obvious penalty is that moving\naverages always lag the original data. A less obvious penalty is that not all noise is removed. In effect, we\naccept the lag which goes with moving averages to obtain imperfect noise reduction.
Early users of simple moving averages noted what was termed \""the drop-off\"" effect. The drop-off effect\nis obvious when a spike in the data is suddenly dropped out of the calculation because it is now older\nthan the averaging time period. There also is a less obvious \""jump on\"" effect which occurs when a new\npiece of data is included in the average for the first time. The \""jump on\"" and \""drop-off\"" effects occur with\nall types of moving averages and are the mechanisms by which noise is transmitted from your data\nthrough the calculations to your moving average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-326-330-a-better-way-to-smooth-data-by-j-s-payne-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-326-330-a-better-way-to-smooth-data-by-j-s-payne-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-326-330-a-better-way-to-smooth-data-by-j-s-payne-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-sidebn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (326-330): SIDEBAR: Numeric weighting"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Numeric weighting
Mathematical formula for calculating numeric weighting data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-326-330-sidebar-numeric-weighting-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-326-330-sidebar-numeric-weighting-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-326-330-sidebar-numeric-weighting-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-xmastre-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (331-332): Christmas tree spread - the all-purpose strategy by Jerry Kopf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""When a football team breaks from the huddle, the players set up at the line of scrimmage in a\nformation. Usually, it's the I or T formation. As the center snaps the ball, each player knows exactly what\nto do. There is no guesswork, no deciding at the line. Gaining a first and 10 depends on how well each\nplay is executed.
Investors who expect to profit from put and call strategies should apply this strict football discipline to\noption trading. The most versatile strategy that offers the average retail trader a structured approach to\ntrading options is a type of spread knows as the Christmas tree. Rather than taking shots willy-nilly, the\nChristmas tree forces a trader to be disciplined and mechanical in implementing a predetermined strategy\non a monthly basis, about five weeks before expiration."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-331-332-christmas-tree-spread-the-all-purpose-strategy-by-jerry-kopf-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-331-332-christmas-tree-spread-the-all-purpose-strategy-by-jerry-kopf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-331-332-christmas-tree-spread-the-all-purpose-strategy-by-jerry-kopf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-constru-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (333-335): Constructing an efficient short-term timing model by Marcus S. Robinson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Constructing an efficient short-term timing\nmodel\nby Marcus S. Robinson
You can use two sets of ratios to forecast short-and intermediate-term turning points in stocks and\ncommodities . In my trading, I look for these \""change in trend\"" (CIT) days using simple ratios rather than\nelaborate charting.
The first set of ratios I use is called the Golden Section ratios and the second set is called the Square of\nthe Range. I'll show you how I use the exact numbers and you can learn more about them through the\nreferences listed at the end of the article.
The first thing is to determine the last intermediate high and low, based on your timeframe. The time\nbetween these two dates will be the \""range\"" of time for predictions. For example, July soybeans peaked\non June 23, 1988 and bottomed 105 market days later (Figure 1).Now, multiply 105 by the \""Golden\nRatio\"" numbers: 1.0,0.892,0.618,0.55 and 0.382. The product of these calculations will be the number of\ndays to add to the low, producing a number of calendar dates on which turns might be expected (Figure\n2)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-333-335-constructing-an-efficient-short-term-timing-model-by-marcus-s-robinson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-333-335-constructing-an-efficient-short-term-timing-model-by-marcus-s-robinson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-333-335-constructing-an-efficient-short-term-timing-model-by-marcus-s-robinson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-media-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (336-339): The best trading indicator- the media by Grant Noble"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The best trading indicator- the media\nby Grant Noble
Anyone who has studied technical analysis knows that what has been written about it stems from a\nlimited number of approaches. Most of the books, systems and seminars on the market boil down to 12\nbasic categoriesóoverboug ht/oversold, number theory, retracements, gaps, trends, chart formations,\ntrendlines, cycles, spreads, flow of funds, seasonals and reports (see \""A map for the trading jungle,\""\nStocks & Commodities, March 1986). Only a handful of those depend on something other than volume,\nopen interest, high, low, open and close. No wonder their results are depressingly alike and are not much\ndifferent than using a simple moving average.
A few good publications concentrate on fundamental analysis, but they tend to retail in the\n$10,000-a-year range. One publication concentrates on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's\n(CFTC) Commitment of Traders report to find out what the hedgers (the \""smart money\"") are doing, but it\nonly comes out once a month, so you are bound to miss many profitable moves.
Even \""contrary opinion\"" has its drawbacks:
It's a lagging indicator. Market letters are normally written Thursday afternoon. By the time most\n\""contrary opinion\"" services tabulate them, it's a week later.
Markets can stay overbought or oversold for weeks causing large equity strains. One market service\nlost most of its gains for the year in an overbought future that continued up.
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-336-339-the-best-trading-indicator-the-media-by-grant-noble-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-336-339-the-best-trading-indicator-the-media-by-grant-noble-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-336-339-the-best-trading-indicator-the-media-by-grant-noble-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-specula-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (340-341): Speculative indicators by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Heavy speculation is a sign of a dangerous market— one that is riding for a fall. I believe I was the\nfirst to suggest, in a 1963 radio interview, that the volume of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX)\ncould be used as a measure of the degree of speculation.\nThe reason is simple. Typical stocks listed on the AMEX tend to be smaller in capitalization and more\nvolatile in price—the type of stock preferred by a speculator who wants fast action.
In recent years, the Over-the-Counter exchange has become prominent. Typical OTC stocks are even\nmore volatile than those on the AMEX. It has been suggested that OTC volume could be an even more\nsensitive indicator of speculation than the volume on the AMEX.
Because the number of shares listed varies over the years in various markets, I have plotted volume's\ndeviation from a 3.77% exponential average over the past five years (Figures 1 and 2).
A characteristic that is quite evident in these charts is a year-end seasonal effect. Note speculation\nincreases in the last weeks of almost every year, culminating in an upward spike the last week."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-340-341-speculative-indicators-by-arthur-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-340-341-speculative-indicators-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-340-341-speculative-indicators-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-finding-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (342-345): Finding patterns in random data by Nelson Weiderman, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Finding patterns in random data\nby Nelson Weiderman, Ph.D.
Since the advent of the personal computer, a great deal of time has been devoted to finding tradeable\npatterns in stock and commodity data. The idea is that patterns found in historical data are likely to repeat\nthemselves, indicating opportunities for successful trading (see \""Trading close-to-close patterns\"" in this\nissue). Unfortunately, not much attention has been given to the statistical significance of historical\npatterns and whether they are different from patterns observed in random data.
The purpose of this article is to point out how random data may appear to be non-random. Once a few\nbasic principles of probability are understood, it may be possible for the non-mathematically inclined to\napply a few tests to determine whether a pattern is unusual or not.
To demonstrate how random data may appear to be non-random, I simulated two coin tossing\nexperiments on a computer model. The patterns that emerge in the results show that patterns do occur in\nrandom data and they look very similar to patterns that have been observed as tradeable patterns in\nhistorical data.
Probability principles
Suppose a coin is tossed four times. There are 16 possible outcomes: HHHH, HTTH, TTHT, etc. If we\nhave n trials (repetitions), then we would expect that each of the 16 patterns would occur approximately\nn/16 times since all of the occurrences are equally likely. This is elementary and understood even by\npeople who have little understanding of statistics."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-342-345-finding-patterns-in-random-data-by-nelson-weiderman-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-342-345-finding-patterns-in-random-data-by-nelson-weiderman-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-342-345-finding-patterns-in-random-data-by-nelson-weiderman-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-casepat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (346-346): A case for patterns by Kent Calhoun"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A case for patterns\nby Kent Calhoun
Probabilities are nothing more than mathematical odds of occurrence. The success of any trading system\nis a direct function of probability, yet how often is a trader aware when the odds shift strongly in his or\nher favor, especially after two, three or four consecutive losses?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-346-346-a-case-for-patterns-by-kent-calhoun-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-346-346-a-case-for-patterns-by-kent-calhoun-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-346-346-a-case-for-patterns-by-kent-calhoun-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-keyrev-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (347-349): Key reversal days by Peter Aan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Key reversal days\nby Peter Aan
Note the differences in this bearish pattern, however. Pattern A requires only a lower close than the\nprevious day and does not require that the previous day's low be penetrated. Pattern B does require such a\npenetration, but does not require the close to be below the previous day's low . Pattern C requires a close\nbelow the low of the previous day.
Of course, a simple chart pattern does not necessarily constitute a complete, viable trading system. What I\nhave done in this study is attempt to isolate occurrences of the pattern at points that might become\nsignificant tops or bottoms. Therefore, I required that the reversal day be the highest high or lowest low\nfor the most recent n number of days. Other occurrences of the pattern were simply ignored. Because\nchart traders tend to pay more attention to key reversals at possible tops and bottoms, this should simulate\ntheir subjective selection process."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-347-349-key-reversal-days-by-peter-aan-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-347-349-key-reversal-days-by-peter-aan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-347-349-key-reversal-days-by-peter-aan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-mkttims-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (350-354): Market Timing System Version 2.6 by Vicki Parker Lee"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Timing System\nVersion 2.6\nby Vicki Parker Lee
AIQ Market Timing System (MTS) is a six-part, menudriven program utilizing technical analysis to\ndetermine when the stock market is most likely to change direction. MTS's signal of an impending\nchange is its \""Expert Rating.\"" Although AIQ does not reveal the Expert Rating (ER) formula, a careful\nreview of the manual indicates it is based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) intraday high, low\nand close, the number of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) advance, decline and unchanged issues\ntraded plus the NYSE up, down and unchanged volume.
An upside ER of 90 or more signals a potential upward move in the market. Conversely, a downside ER\nof 90 or more signals a downtrend. A change in direction of the \""Price Phase Indicator\"" which resembles\nthe well-known Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) oscillator, confirms a high ER to\nprevent a trader from entering or exiting the market prematurely.
The S&P 500, NYSE Composite Index and new highs/lows are three graphic indicators, and do not\nappear to be utilized in generating buy-sell signals. Seventeen years of data is supplied with the program,\nof which seven months at a time can be displayed on the screen. The program has a communication\nsection permitting data downloading from Hale Systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-350-354-market-timing-system-version-2-6-by-vicki-parker-lee-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-350-354-market-timing-system-version-2-6-by-vicki-parker-lee-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-350-354-market-timing-system-version-2-6-by-vicki-parker-lee-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-pilotin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (355-356): Are you piloting your trading with safety? by Ana Maria Wilson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are you piloting your trading with safety?\nby Ana Maria Wilson
As a full-time trader of highly speculative stock and commodity options armed with a basically sound\nsystem, I'm always looking for ways to strengthen the weakest link in my trading program: the human\nfactor. Specifically, I find challenge in maintaining the discipline to respect a set of trading criteria that\nI've:
• designed to protect profits and preserve capital,
• arrived at after much research and not a few costly mistakes, and
• laid down clearly in writing to avoid any deviation from a prudent trading path.
I regret to say that at trading time, I have rarely allowed this cool and detached assessment to prevail. It's\nbeen my experience that at times when the satisfaction of the criteria to enter or exit a position is\nborderline or while the trade is in progress, when judgment is the least clear and emotions are engaged, I\nhave bent, twisted or outright disregarded my own criteria for some arcane hunch that this time things\nwere different."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-355-356-are-you-piloting-your-trading-with-safety-by-ana-maria-wilson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-355-356-are-you-piloting-your-trading-with-safety-by-ana-maria-wilson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-355-356-are-you-piloting-your-trading-with-safety-by-ana-maria-wilson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-downloa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (357-358): The DownLoader 2.0 by Steve Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The DownLoader 2.0\nby Steve Notis
Collecting and managing raw price data is boring, time consuming, often aggravating, and never\nproductive. Shuttling incompatible files back and forth between programs is not my idea of technical\nanalysis — it's just a chore that needs doing, and anything that makes it go away quicker gets my vote.
There are so many different vendors, methods of delivery, and software packages which use non-standard\nfile formats, that you can get bogged down in data housekeeping and have precious little time left for\nanalysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-357-358-the-downloader-2-0-by-steve-notis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-357-358-the-downloader-2-0-by-steve-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-357-358-the-downloader-2-0-by-steve-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-global-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (359-361): Programming for a global perspective by Charles Milmoe"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Programming for a global perspective\nby Charles Milmoe
Today's global economy requires a global perspective. In March, when Drs. Pons and Fleischmann's\ncold fusion announcement directed my attention to palladium, I used the improved capabilities of today's\nsoftware to enhance my analysis. Palladium, the most undervalued precious metal, has always intrigued\nme.
It is the least expensive metal in the platinum group by one-third. It has the unique distinction of being\nthe only platinum group metal to absorb a large quantity — 900 times its volume—of hydrogen gas into\nits crystalline lattice. This is probably why Pons and Fleischmann chose palladium as the negative\nelectrode in their experiment. Titanium, tantalum and nickel absorb hydrogen gas, but not to the extent\nthat palladium does. In our high-tech world, unique properties such as this become valuable overnight, as\nthis announcement showed.
I analyzed palladium prices from both U.S. and Japanese perspectives. My logic was that, since Japan is\nthe second richest country in the world and has a large dependency on imported energy, the price of\npalladium in yen would be almost as important as price in dollars."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-359-361-programming-for-a-global-perspective-by-charles-milmoe-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-359-361-programming-for-a-global-perspective-by-charles-milmoe-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-359-361-programming-for-a-global-perspective-by-charles-milmoe-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-develop-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (362-364): Developing and using pattern recognition by Tom Johnson and Mark Boucher"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Developing and using pattern recognition\nby Tom Johnson and Mark Boucher
Do you find yourself getting drawn into the game of predicting market trends? Are you awash with\nnewsletters, TV programs and news stories about \""gurus\"" calling the markets? Such crystal ball gazing is\noften idolized by the media. But does sorting bulls from bears help your bottom line? Sure, it makes good\ncocktail party talk, but we need more. We all know profitable investing depends on the whole trading\nsystem—selection, entry, exit and money management.
How your account does is the real question, not how the market does. With market uncertainties on the\nrise, let' s focus on making your account a raging bull. To do that, we will present our method of pattern\nrecognition, a technical approach to identifying trading opportunities with the greatest reward-to-risk\nratios. Then we will show you a representative price pattern to trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-362-364-developing-and-using-pattern-recognition-by-tom-johnson-and-mark-boucher-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-362-364-developing-and-using-pattern-recognition-by-tom-johnson-and-mark-boucher-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-362-364-developing-and-using-pattern-recognition-by-tom-johnson-and-mark-boucher-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-mfi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (365-368): Market Facilitation Index Charles F. Wright"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Facilitation Index\nCharles F. Wright
The Market Facilitation Index (MFI) is an objective means of measuring facilitation of trade which, in\nits simplest terms, means how well the market is working efficiently. An efficient market is very liquid\nand both short- and long-term investors are actively trading, from the locals in the pit to commercials and\nspeculative traders.
A market that is not facilitating trade is generally a one timeframe market, dominated by short-term\noriented locals. Volume is low and there is very little activity from the longer term traders and investors.\nThe locals simply run the price up and down, looking for stops and waiting for the external paper to enter\nthe market.
The MFI formula divides the range of the current price chart bar by the volume of the same bar. MFI may\nbe used for all time periods from five minutes up to daily and weekly charts. It is acceptable to use either\ntotal tick volume or actual volume on daily and weekly charts and, of course, tick volume on intraday\ncharts. The only requirement is consistency on the daily and weekly charts—do not switch back and forth.
A typical MFI calculation on an S&P 500 30-minute bar chart is:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-365-368-market-facilitation-index-charles-f-wright-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-365-368-market-facilitation-index-charles-f-wright-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-365-368-market-facilitation-index-charles-f-wright-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-optione-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (369-371): Option Evaluator by Hans Hannula, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Evaluator\nby Hans Hannula, Ph.D.
T he Option Evaluator is attractive— it is nicely packaged with a bound manual, and has the flashiest\nand most colorful screens of any market software package I have seen. But its beauty is only skin deep.\nUnderneath, is a solid options package that's simple and easy to use, but without out some of the fancy\noptions like spread analysis and graphics.
Written by Raymond J. Kaider, a commodity trading advisor who obviously knows how to trade options,\nOptions Evaluator apparently gives you what Kaider feels is essential for success. The program allows\nyou to evaluate a futures or index put or call option, evaluate a stock put or call option, calculate implied\nor historic volatility, compute a brief or lengthy delta sheet, update a set of options you are tracking, look\nup last trade dates or any date on a calendar or run a DOS command."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-369-371-option-evaluator-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-369-371-option-evaluator-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-369-371-option-evaluator-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-close-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (372-374): Trading close-to-close patterns by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading close-to-close patterns\nby Toby Crabel
Do the relationships between day-to-day closing prices predict the next day's price moves and, if so, is\nit possible to isolate these profitable chart patterns and incorporate them as entry signals in a larger\ntrading system? In pursuit of these answers, I have tested all two- through five-day close-to-close patterns\nin the T-bond futures market from 1978 to 1987 (Figure 1) and discovered the beginnings of some\nexcellent low-risk entry techniques. My tests assumed that trades were entered on the last close of the\npattern and exited on the next day's close. Stops were not used.
Figure 2 is an example of the --++ pattern listed as number 24 in Figure 1. The pattern is two lower\nclosings followed by two higher closings, all relative to the close immediately preceding it. Figure 1\nshows this pattern is most profitable as a sale. Entry is taken on the close of the last day which, in this\ncase, is higher and the trade is exited on the next day's close."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-372-374-trading-close-to-close-patterns-by-toby-crabel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-372-374-trading-close-to-close-patterns-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-372-374-trading-close-to-close-patterns-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-bisigna-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (375-377): Bi signal indicator by Joseph Barics"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Bi signal indicator\nby Joseph Barics
To minimize false signals associated with moving average crossings, I began searching for an indicator\nthat would \""suggest first\"" and \""confirm or reject later.\"" During this search I found interesting concepts in\nthree articles published by Stocks & Commodities —\""Volume-weighted RSI: Money flow,\"" (March\n1989), \""Money flow analysis,\"" (February 1988) and \""Speeding up the oscillator\"" (June 1989)—which I\nused with modifications to make up this indicator.
The heart of this indicator is the Money Flow Index (MFI):
...
Over any time period a trader selects, the positive money flow is the sum of hourly positive money flow;\nnegative money flow is the sum of hourly negative money flow."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-375-377-bi-signal-indicator-by-joseph-barics-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-375-377-bi-signal-indicator-by-joseph-barics-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-375-377-bi-signal-indicator-by-joseph-barics-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c10-livewir-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:10 (378-379): LiveWire by Jim Rader"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LiveWire\nby Jim Rader
LiveWire is a new type of product. It takes public information from a TV signal and makes it usable to\nyour computer. This product has no monthly charges; you simply buy it, install it in your computer and\nlet it run.
Specifically, what does it do? It \""watches\"" television for you and doesn't even need a television set to do\nit. It is discriminating as it will only watch one channel: Financial News Network (FNN). It does what we\nwish we could do: watch the price ticker on the bottom of the TV screen and remember most of what it\nsees.
I have been using it since August 1988 and have continually checked its data against other sources. It is\nquite good and I am comfortable with its accuracy. What does LiveWire do for me? I use it to check\nmodel portfolios suggested by experts and to build my own indices. Most of all, I use it to monitor my\nown investments and to time entry and exit of positions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-378-379-livewire-by-jim-rader-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-378-379-livewire-by-jim-rader-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-10-378-379-livewire-by-jim-rader-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-shelly-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (381-384): Shelly Natenberg: trader and teacher by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Shelly Natenberg: trader and teacher\nby John Sweeney
Shelly Natenberg, a floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade, is the author of Options Volatility &\nPricing Strategies, Probus Publishing, Chicago, 118 North Clinton St, Chicago, IL 60606, (800)\n426-1520 or (312) 346-7985. He has been teaching options for six years to professional and floor traders\nat the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and is currently active in giving seminars for many different\nexchanges.
Shelly, Probus sent us your book for review. I've scanned through this thing, but I wanted to get some\nmore background on you before diving in. Can you give me information about who you are and where\nyou came from?
I'm basically just a floor trader. I started teaching options as a sideline about 5 or 6 years ago—only to\nprofessional or floor traders. I was teaching for the Merc [Chicago Mercantile Exchange] in Chicago so I\ndeveloped a manual for floor traders. Then, I guess my name got passed around. I did some more\nteaching for other firms, Bear Stearns, Chicago Research and Trading and a few others, and then got\ninvited by other exchanges. I'm still just a single guy on the floor but I've done quite a few seminars for\nother exchanges. Let's see, I've done them for the CME [Chicago Mercantile Exchange], the Board of\nTrade [Chicago Board of Trade], the CBOE [Chicago Board of Options Exchange], the NYFE [New\nYork Futures Exchange] and the Coffee Sugar, & Cocoa Exchange [CSCE]. I'm scheduled to do one for\nthe New York Merc [New York Mercantile Exchange], two for SIMEX in Singapore and some for LIFFE\n[London International Financial Futures Exchange] in London.
Gadzooks! Most guys on the floor aren't really known for their teaching skills...
No! And I have no teaching background. I just sort of fell into it. You know how a floor trader's income\nfluctuates...and when I first started trading I was looking for ways to make a few dollars and smooth out\nthe income flow. I got a few friends together as guinea pigs, and I tried it out on them. Then I knocked on\na few doors, and put out a few letters just to see what would happen and I got, well, the first major\nresponse I got was CRT. That was, I guess, just a stroke of luck because, you know, they are pretty well\nknown in the industry. They recommended me to other people so I guess I was just fortunate enough to\nbe in the right place at the right time.
I just basically try and teach traders the theory they need to know as professional traders in order to go out\nand make an intelligent decision. I'm not an advisory service. I don't try and make decisions for the\npeople, I just try to help them make their own decisions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-381-384-shelly-natenberg-trader-and-teacher-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-381-384-shelly-natenberg-trader-and-teacher-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-381-384-shelly-natenberg-trader-and-teacher-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-overbou-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (385-386): Overbought and oversold indicator by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Overbought and oversold indicator\nby Thom Hartle
Traders often refer to markets as being in various states or conditions with a jargon that covers the\nspectrum of market action. Starting with \""It's a bull market. . .the market is overbought. . .the market is\nconsolidating\"" and moving to \""The market is forming a top. . .the market is oversold. . .it's a bear market.\n. .the market has bottomed. \""The point of this article is to explain a simple tool that I use to help me\nidentify overbought and oversold conditions in the T-bond futures market.
Overbought implies that a market has only a minor chance of continuing to move higher. At these points\nin a rally, buyers are unable to push prices higher. The market may consolidate and, in effect, rest. From a\ncharting standpoint, this resting (consolidating) period will occur at the upper side of a rising trend\nchannel (Figure 1).
The line of resistance, or supply line, of the channel represents a price area that is failing to attract further\ndemand. The market appears to be resting because the news may not be negative enough to change crowd\npsychology from a bull to a bear trend, yet there is not enough favorable news to attract more buyers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-385-386-overbought-and-oversold-indicator-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-385-386-overbought-and-oversold-indicator-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-385-386-overbought-and-oversold-indicator-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-insided-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (387-389): Inside day patterns in the S&P by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Inside day patterns in the S&P\nby Toby Crabel
Computer studies suggest that inside days— where the high is lower than the previous ! day's high and\nthe low is higher than the previous day's low— provide very reliable t entries in the S&P 500 futures\nmarket. The basic trading pattern (Figure 1) is an inside day (ID) followed by a sale if the next day's\nmarket opens lower or a buy if next day's market opens higher. Entry is on the open and exit is on the\nsame day's close without a stop.
In computerized tests, this basic procedure produced 68% winning trades in the S&P between 1982 and\n1987. Total net profit from these trades was $18,000 after an $18-per-trade commission. This is a\nreasonably high percentage and suggests a strong tendency or bias for prices to continue in the direction\nof the open the day after any inside day.
Refinements
One simple variation of this pattern—discerning | whether the ID close and next day's open are in the\nsame direction—produces an even higher percentage of winning trades. In Figure 2a, the ID has a higher\nclose than the previous day and is followed by a higher open. A buy is taken on the open and exited on\nthe close. A sale is taken when the ID has a lower close and is followed by a lower open (Figure 2b)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-387-389-inside-day-patterns-in-the-s-p-by-toby-crabel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-387-389-inside-day-patterns-in-the-s-p-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-387-389-inside-day-patterns-in-the-s-p-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-chaosth-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (391-395): Chaos theory and market behavior by Bernd Anders"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Chaos theory and market behavior\nby Bernd Anders
Chaos, in the original Greek, describes the primal condition—a w translation that means \""confuwsion\""\nas well as \""reality.\"" With this one word, the ancients captured what they intuitively knew about the world;\nthat disorder, unpredictability and randomness are part of the natural order. Yet, since the 1970s, chaos\nhas become the codeword for a revolutionary scientific movement that has revamped ancient notions\nabout complex, irregular phenomena—from commodity prices to the weather—and discovered that, even\nin chaos, there is order.
Unlike scientists who have striven to break nature down to its finest, atomic details and discover\nuniversal laws there, the investigators of chaos theory are looking at objects and systems on an ordinary,\nhuman scale to decipher the extraordinarily difficult problems of predictability facing traders,\nmeteorologists, biologists, engineers, economists and others. They have learned that randomness is\nsimply a disguise for order.
For example, economists for decades assumed cotton prices followed two different patterns. On the long\nterm, prices rose and fell, apparently due to changes in the economy such as more competition or new\ninternational trade restrictions. Short-term prices seemed to dance randomly. The general viewpoint was\nsmall ups and downs had nothing in common with the large, long-term changes determined by macro\neconomic forces.
That was before renowned IBM researcher Benoit Mandelbrot stumbled onto a professor's finding that\ncotton price changes refused to fit into the standard bell-shaped curve of normal distribution. Price\nchanges simply would not hover around an average and neatly scatter out to either extreme."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-391-395-chaos-theory-and-market-behavior-by-bernd-anders-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-391-395-chaos-theory-and-market-behavior-by-bernd-anders-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-391-395-chaos-theory-and-market-behavior-by-bernd-anders-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-sidebc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (391-395): SIDEBAR: Chaos on CompuTrac"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Chaos on CompuTrac
A version of the chaos equation systems, programmed as a user study in CompuTrac is below."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-391-395-sidebar-chaos-on-computrac-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-391-395-sidebar-chaos-on-computrac-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-391-395-sidebar-chaos-on-computrac-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-fundame-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (396-399): Fundamentals behind technical analysis by Curtis McKallip Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fundamentals behind technical analysis\nby Curtis McKallip Jr.
Would you believe you are doing fundamental analysis without knowing it when you use technical\nindicators? No, not GNP, PPP, GPD, J-curves or deflators. That stuff is for government policy makers.\nFundamental supply and demand analysis is often ignored. Not because it is wrong but because the\ninformation isn't there.
You can get hourly price quotes off your satellite dish, but can you find out how many soybean plants\nwere planted at 2 p.m.? (And how much would the exchanges charge for it?) If you could get this\ninformation it might be very useful and there is a way to guess at short-term supply and demand by\nworking backward from price charts.
If you are using technical analysis, you are implying certain properties to these curves whether you are\nconscious of it or not. One property of supply and demand, called elasticity, changes over time. This can\ncause your technical trading system to stop working. Elasticity is covered in basic economic texts and,\nbasically, it refers to consumer loyalty to a product as price changes.
First, study Figure 1, which compares the static view some technical traders have of markets and the\nmore complex reality of dynamic price patterns. The dynamic model is one of punctuated disturbances\nfollowed by periods of equilibrium. In the dynamic view, equilibrium persists until it is disturbed by new\nevents."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-396-399-fundamentals-behind-technical-analysis-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-396-399-fundamentals-behind-technical-analysis-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-396-399-fundamentals-behind-technical-analysis-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-neuraln-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (400-404): Neural networks: A trading perspective by Carol H. Halquist & George F. Schmoll, II"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Neural networks: A trading perspective\nby Carol H. Halquist & George F. Schmoll, III
Neural networks and neural network simulators are used in signal processing, expert systems,\nmodeling and forecasting. They may be used to solve complex, well-defined problems which may be\nimpossible to solve algorithmically. They are primarily beneficial when the relation between input data\nand output data is not clearly understood, but a large number of sample sets of data are available.
Neural networks are an alternative method used in signal processing, particularly in such fields as speech,\nvision and pattern recognition or noise filtering including stock or commodity market data. They may be\nused to ascertain the level of seemingly random or uncorrelated noise in data and, thus, produce a\nfiltering mechanism to help clarify underlying relationships contained in the data.
Neural networks have been used as self-optimizing expert system generators for models that are difficult\nor supposedly impossible to define with standard rule-based expert systems. Rule-based expert systems\nrequire a knowledgeable expert to define the game rules. It may be possible to poll or measure a number\nof expert traders to generate an expert system to pick and trade the markets in unison with the best of the\nexperts.
Neural networks have been used to model and forecast financial and economic time series data such as\ninterest rates, stocks, options, mutual funds and commodity futures prices as well as cash markets (Figure\n1). These forecasts have proven comparable with other methods currently in use to predict likely prices\nand position stop-loss buy/sell prices."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-400-404-neural-networks-a-trading-perspective-by-carol-h-halquist-george-f-schmoll-ii-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-400-404-neural-networks-a-trading-perspective-by-carol-h-halquist-george-f-schmoll-ii-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-400-404-neural-networks-a-trading-perspective-by-carol-h-halquist-george-f-schmoll-ii-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-trwindo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (405-407): Trading windows for technical indicators by Frank Tarkany"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading windows for technical indicators\nby Frank Tarkany
In a number of articles over the past three years, Stocks & Commodities' authors have developed\nevidence that changes in securities prices are generated by a process that is random, stationary and\ndependent. In English: today's prices depend to some extent on past prices.
Frank Tarkany presented evidence in previous issues that prices are non-random and dependent. The\nnext questions are, \""If prices are non-random and dependent, what is their nature and over what period\nof time do past prices affect today's prices and future prices?\""
It turns out that it is easier to answer the second question than the first. Statistical techniques explained\nin past issues can identify the period during which non randomness and dependence hold. These periods\nare \""trading windows,\"" lengths of time within which technical tools sensitive to time can be expected to\noperate more efficiently. Persons using averages or stochastics, or any other indicator with a time\nparameter, should want to know how far into the past they should go in calculating their indicator—and\nhow far into the future it might be indicative of price performance.—Editor
What's the window within which you can trade the Dow Jones Industrial Average short-term and expect\nits price to relate to past prices? In the Dow's case, it's between 19 and 25 days (four or five weeks),\nremarkably close to the 21-day range market practitioners use as a rule of thumb. For long-term traders,\nthe Dow window exists from 140 to 149 days (29 to 31 weeks)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-405-407-trading-windows-for-technical-indicators-by-frank-tarkany-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-405-407-trading-windows-for-technical-indicators-by-frank-tarkany-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-405-407-trading-windows-for-technical-indicators-by-frank-tarkany-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-setting-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (408-410): Setting stops: A new approach by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Setting stops — a new approach\nby John Ehlers
The cliche in golf is \""drive for show, but putt for dough.\"" The analogy in technical trading is that the\nability to pick entry points is highly focused, but scant attention is paid to how to exit a trade. This is\nunfortunate, because skillfully selected exit points can often make a large difference between overall\nprofit and loss.
There are, of course, several exit strategies in common usage. One is to exit with a predefined profit or\nloss. Another is J. Welles Wilder's parabolic stop-and-reverse or SAR (see related article in this issue). I\nuse an exit strategy based on a following stop in my EPOCH trading software. The exit point also can be\nused to establish stop-and-reverse positions if you desire to follow the contract in both long and short\npositions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-408-410-setting-stops-a-new-approach-by-john-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-408-410-setting-stops-a-new-approach-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-408-410-setting-stops-a-new-approach-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-parabol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (411-413): Parabolic stop/reversal by Peter Aan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Parabolic stop/reversal\nby Peter Aan
There are two primary variables for the system: the acceleration factor (AF) increment and the\nmaximum acceleration value. In a long trade, for instance, the daily computation involves subtracting the\ncurrent reversal stop from the most favorable point reached in the trade and multiplying this difference by\nthe AF. This result is then added to today's stop to arrive at the reversal point for tomorrow. The general\nequation is:
...
Every time the market moves into new highs, the AF is increased. As the AF increases, the stop, which\nwill start out rather \""loose,\"" will start to track the market more closely. The AF continues to increase with\nfavorable price movement, until it reaches the maximum acceleration value (0.20 is Wilder's original\nlimit), at which time the AF stays at that level regardless of market action."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-411-413-parabolic-stop-reversal-by-peter-aan-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-411-413-parabolic-stop-reversal-by-peter-aan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-411-413-parabolic-stop-reversal-by-peter-aan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-sentime-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (414-415): Market letter sentiment by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market letter sentiment\nby Arthur Merrill
Analyst Abraham Cohen, many years ago, began to tabulate the opinions of stock market analysts. He\nwatched scores of market letters (including my own!) and each week put them in three piles: bullish,\nbearish and correction. He reported the percentage in each category in his weekly publication, Investors'\nIntelligence. I have found it useful to divide the \""correction\"" pile and assign one half of the stack to the\nbullish and one half to the bearish categories.
Market letter writers are presumed to be experts and to have access to more data than the ordinary\ninvestor. The advisor should be able to predict the future of the market more accurately than the advisee.
Surprisingly, Cohen's tabulation technique shows this is not the case. You would have done better\nthrough the years if you had sold when the market letter writers were optimistic, and bought when they\nwere pessimistic. Contrary opinion!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-414-415-market-letter-sentiment-by-arthur-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-414-415-market-letter-sentiment-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-414-415-market-letter-sentiment-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-revamp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (416-417): Revamping mediocre buy-write strategies by Jerry Kopf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Revamping mediocre buy-write strategies\nby Jerry Kopf
Stockbrokers usually introduce the average retail investor to option trading with a simplistic buy-write I\nstrategy. Buy the stock and sell (write) a call option against it. The mechanics are straightforward. The\nseller or writer of the call option is establishing a contract with the purchaser of the call, promising to\ndeliver shares of a stock at a certain price (the strike price) on a certain date (expiration date). The buyer\npays the seller of the contract a fee (called the premium) to assume this risk. At expiration, if the stock is\nbelow the strike price, the seller of the call keeps the entire premium. However if the price of the stock\nmoves above the strike price the seller has to deliver the stock to the buyer at the strike price.
In a market that stays in a trading range, the buy-write delivers decent results. Stockbrokers embrace it\nbecause it's easy for customers to understand and therefore simple to \""sell.\"" It generates multiple\ncommissions—commissions on both buying stock and simultaneously selling the call option."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-416-417-revamping-mediocre-buy-write-strategies-by-jerry-kopf-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-416-417-revamping-mediocre-buy-write-strategies-by-jerry-kopf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-416-417-revamping-mediocre-buy-write-strategies-by-jerry-kopf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c11-optimal-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:11 (418-421): Optimal parameter selection by Kent Calhoun"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Optimal parameter selection\nby Kent Calhoun
The success or failure of any trading system hinges on the choice of its parameters. General wisdom\nholds that optimal parameters are variables that produce the highest cumulative profits on completed\ntrades. My approach is based on a basic defensive trading philosophy—controlling losses is essential to\nmaking profits. So, rather than selecting optimal parameters to produce the largest closed cumulative\nprofits, my goal is to locate profitable trading parameters that minimize equity drawdown as the market\nchanges.
Optimal commodity parameters vary from year to year due to the inherently volatile nature of individual\ncommodities. The change of optimal parameters from one time period to the next is called optimal\nparameter shift. The very best commodity trading systems can have parameter shifts of up to 50% and\nstill be profitable for individual commodities.
For example, imagine the optimal parameters for an eight-year T-bond database produce $40,000 closed\ncumulative profits annually. In the ninth year, the optimal parameters shift by 50%, yet still produce\n$30,000 cumulative profit on all closed trades—an excellent system because the equity falloff was 25%\neven though the parameters shifted 50%.
The goal is to isolate an optimal parameter that is so profitable that shifts of 25% or more will not result\nin an annual loss for any commodity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-418-421-optimal-parameter-selection-by-kent-calhoun-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-418-421-optimal-parameter-selection-by-kent-calhoun-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-11-418-421-optimal-parameter-selection-by-kent-calhoun-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-wizards-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (423-427): Wizards: minds over markets by Van K. Tharp"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wizards: minds over markets\nby Van K. Tharp
Jack Schwager, commodity trader and confessed system skeptic, has been a familiar name in commodity\ntrading for a number of years. His 1984 book, A Complete Guide to the Futures Market, laid out most\ntested techniques along with other methodologies.
His latest book, The Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders (Simon & Schuster, New York) might\nbe considered a companion to his technical tools book. Wizards brings home some of the more\nimportant, and often, overlooked elements of successful trading—not magical systems, but the beliefs that\nhave made the most successful traders what they are today. Appropriately, trading psychologist Van K.\nTharp interviewed Schwager while he was in the process of writing Wizards. What follows is a\ndistillation of their six-hour discussion and follow-up questions.— Ed.
You've completed The Market Wizards . You've spent a lot of time talking with different top traders and\nyou've had a chance to think about their responses. At this point, what do you think it takes to be a top\ntrader?
The following are not in any particular order, just the order that I think of them. To begin, confidence in\nyour ability to consistently win as a trader over the long run is absolutely essential. Admittedly, this is a\nbit of a Catch 22 proposition: in order to be a winning trader, you need to have confidence; but in order to\nhave confidence, you need to be a winning trader. That aspect, however, does not diminish the\nimportance of confidence. The one absolute common denominator among all the traders I interviewed\nwas a confidence in their continued ability to win over the long run. Everything else stemmed from this\nconfidence.
Another critical factor is discipline. While this may sound like a cliche, it is probably the single most\nmentioned word that cropped up when the top traders tried to explain what made them so successful.
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-423-427-wizards-minds-over-markets-by-van-k-tharp-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-423-427-wizards-minds-over-markets-by-van-k-tharp-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-423-427-wizards-minds-over-markets-by-van-k-tharp-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-tactica-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (428-430): Tactical stock trading by Hugh L. Logan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tactical stock trading\nby Hugh L. Logan
Peter Eliason's stock trading technique (\""Tactical stock trading,\"" Stocks & Commodities, March 1989\nand \""Volatility analysis and simulation used in tactical trading,\"" Stocks & Commodities, July 1989)\nsounded so interesting I immediately sat down and began experimenting. Others have questioned the\nconsequences of using the technique on a downtrending stock (see Letters to the Editor, Stocks &\nCommodities, May, July and September 1989) although Eliason has repeatedly cautioned users to use\nstrategic techniques (as distinguished from tactical techniques) to guard against being wiped out by large\ndowntrends.
I found an approach that improves the chances of getting out of a downtrending stock with a profit and\ndoesn't give up too much if a stock goes into an uptrend.
Tactical trading
Eliason's trading technique begins with a series of numbers such as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. To determine the\nnumber of shares to own, add the first and last numbers in the series (the extreme numbers) and multiply\nthat sum by a \""base number\"" of shares. If I assume the base number is 100, the initial buy is [ 100 ´ (1 +\n6)] = 700 shares. The per-share price of this first transaction Is my \""action price.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-428-430-tactical-stock-trading-by-hugh-l-logan-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-428-430-tactical-stock-trading-by-hugh-l-logan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-428-430-tactical-stock-trading-by-hugh-l-logan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-weeklyh-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (431-432): Weekly high/low moving average by Peter Aan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Weekly high/low moving average\nby Peter Aan
Most moving averages of price are based on the closing price (see \""Simple moving average\ncrossover,\"" Stocks & Commodities, June 1989), but the weekly variation computes moving averages of\nthe weekly highs and lows, based on the most recently completed calendar week.
This is a very simple system; you only have to compute the average high and low once a week (Figure 1)\nand if, for instance, your current position is short, you will be concerned only with the high average.
Both the high and low averages are plotted on a weekly bar chart (Figure 2). When weekly prices cross or\n\""break\"" through either of the moving average levels, it is a signal to buy or sell (Figure 3). The rules of\nthe system are straightforward:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-431-432-weekly-high-low-moving-average-by-peter-aan-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-431-432-weekly-high-low-moving-average-by-peter-aan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-431-432-weekly-high-low-moving-average-by-peter-aan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-dofibon-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (433-436): Do stock prices reflect Fibonacci ratios? by Herbert H.J. Riedel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Do stock prices reflect Fibonacci ratios?\nby Herbert H.J. Riedel
The claim has been frequently made that Fibonacci ratios occur in stock market data. A Fibonacci ratio\nis the ratio between any successive numbers of the Fibonacci sequence — the Fibonacci sequence\n1,1,2,3,5,8... produces the ratios 1, 1/2, 2/3, 3/5, 5/8....
After the first four numbers in the Fibonacci sequence, the ratios approximately equal 0.618, known as\nthe Golden Ratio or phi (f). Comparing one number in the sequence to the next lower number (8/5,5/3,\n2/1. . .) produces ratios that approximate 1.618, the inverse of the Golden Ratio, f
In their book, Elliott Wave Principle, Key to Stock Market Timing, A. J. Frost and Robert Prechter cited\nDow theorist Robert Rhea's study of nine Dow Theory bull markets and nine bear markets . Of the 13,115\ncalendar days reviewed, bull markets were in progress for 8,143 days and bear markets for 4,972 days,\ngiving a ratio of 0.611, a value close to the Golden Ratio, f = 0.618.
In another Rhea study, the sum of the \""primary swing\"" advances during a particular bull market divided\nby the advance of the bull market was 1.621, a value close to 1/f."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-433-436-do-stock-prices-reflect-fibonacci-ratios-by-herbert-h-j-riedel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-433-436-do-stock-prices-reflect-fibonacci-ratios-by-herbert-h-j-riedel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-433-436-do-stock-prices-reflect-fibonacci-ratios-by-herbert-h-j-riedel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-ellivol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (437-437): ELLI-VOL II by James S. Gould, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""ELLI-VOL II\nby James S. Gould, Ph.D.
ELLI-VOL II is a trading/timing method combining a stock's (or index's) daily closing price and\ntrading volume to derive a daily trading signal, presumably indicating when to open or close a current\nposition or to stay out of the market.
The program's underlying logic is based on the amount of volume required to \""move\"" a stock's price. In\ntheory, a half-point price move on 8,000 shares is less significant than a similar price move on 15,000\nshares because price-volume relationships portend accumulation/distribution activity. Additionally, an\nincrease (decrease) in price accompanied by high volume is bullish (bearish) while a price increase or\ndecrease accompanied by low volume is not as important. Most traders would agree, however, that these\nrelationships are not always true (especially at \""critical\"" points in a price move) and that there is more to\nsuccessful trading than these price-volume relationships."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-437-437-elli-vol-ii-by-james-s-gould-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-437-437-elli-vol-ii-by-james-s-gould-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-437-437-elli-vol-ii-by-james-s-gould-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-optvol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (438-441): Trading options volatility by Andrew J. Sterge"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading options volatility\nby Andrew J. Sterge
Options are much more than a hedging vehicle or leveraged way of participating in spot or futures\nmarkets. Indeed, options create strategies that did not exist before in trading an option's underlying\ninstrument. These strategies are known as volatility trades and the benefit is that you usually don't have to\npick market direction, something always tough to do. Instead, you bet on whether an option's volatility is\ncheap or rich, in other words, undervalued or overvalued.
The term volatility is used with abandon in discussions of options, this one included. All traders can tell\nby feel whether or not a market is volatile, but making the term mathematically precise is another matter.\nThe problem arises because the usual definition of volatility — the standard deviation of daily percentage\nprice changes — assumes these percentage price changes are normally distributed, that there are few lows\nand highs and mainly middle values. Yet it is well-documented that this assumption is incorrect.
To be specific, traded instruments typically exhibit more very large and more very small price changes,\nbut fewer intermediate-sized price changes, than would be expected if the price changes were normally\ndistributed. Therefore, a 25% 30-day historical volatility, for instance, probably reflects a few large and\nmany very small price changes rather than the more uniform behavior of a normal distribution with 0.25\nstandard deviation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-438-441-trading-options-volatility-by-andrew-j-sterge-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-438-441-trading-options-volatility-by-andrew-j-sterge-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-438-441-trading-options-volatility-by-andrew-j-sterge-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-armsequ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (442-444): Arms Equivolume Charting System by James S. Gould"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Arms Equivolume Charting System\nby Dr. James S. Gould
Knowing that XYZ stock was up 5-1/4 points, ABC dropped 3 points and AAA was unchanged is\nabout as useful as knowing the late sports scores were 12-to-8 and 9-to-5. The information gives little\nclue as to what happened, how it happened and what might happen the next time around.
Similarly, conventional stock and commodity charting that disregards trading volume is about as helpful\nfor in-depth technical analysis as a synopsis of stock market events or sports scores on the late-night TV\nnews. Equivolume charting incorporates both price and volume to provide a more complete assessment\nof each day's supply/demand balance.
An Equivolume chart expands the price bars of a conventional bar chart horizontally by the amount of\nvolume in the trading day (Figure 1). The result is a series of boxes undulating across the chart. (For an\nexemplary use of Equivolume charting, see \""Trading T-bonds with Equivolume,\"" Stocks & Commodities,\nSeptember 1989.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-442-444-arms-equivolume-charting-system-by-james-s-gould-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-442-444-arms-equivolume-charting-system-by-james-s-gould-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-442-444-arms-equivolume-charting-system-by-james-s-gould-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-noload-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (445-448): Beat the market with no-load mutual funds by Gary Zin, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Beat the market with no-load mutual funds\nby Gary Zin, Ph.D.
In the past, I have invested in mutual funds based on their long-term performance, typically requiring\nthat a fund's five-year history exceed the compounded return of Standard & Poor's 500-stock index (S&P\n500). In general, a diversified portfolio based on this criteria will do well, perhaps slightly exceeding and\nrarely falling far behind the stock market. But, the portfolio generally does not substantially exceed the\nreturns of an index fund representing the broad market.
There is substantial evidence to support the premise that stocks (or commodities) outperforming the\nmarket with strong momentum generally continue to outperform the market. Likewise, mutual fund\nmanagers whose investment styles and philosophies have outperformed the market tend to continue\noutperforming the market. In light of this, I've developed a technique to identify and select mutual funds\nthat are most likely to continue substantially exceeding the broad market returns.
Momentum measurements
Mutual fund selection systems are not new. Dr. Donald Rugg presented his momentum measurement\nindex for mutual funds at CompuTrac's 1988 TAG X Seminar. He calculates a fund's percent change in\nnet asset value for one, three, six and nine months and adds the four percentages together to create a\nperformance index that emphasizes the most recent performance. The higher the index, the better the\nmutual fund's performance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-445-448-beat-the-market-with-no-load-mutual-funds-by-gary-zin-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-445-448-beat-the-market-with-no-load-mutual-funds-by-gary-zin-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-445-448-beat-the-market-with-no-load-mutual-funds-by-gary-zin-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-gannpf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (449-452): Gann analysis on point and figure charts by Douglas Arend"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Gann analysis on point and figure charts\nby Douglas Arend
Of the many analytical techniques attributed to W.D. Gann, perhaps none is more widely followed\nthan the so-called geometric angles. Although applied generally to historical and intraday bar charts, this\nmethod also can be used with point and figure or, as they are sometimes called, reversal charts. In this\ncase, the emphasis is on price alone rather than the combination of price and time.
P&F basics
Constructing daily point and figure (P&F) charts starts by determining the scale of the box (number of\nprice ticks per square) and reversal (number of boxes necessary to change from advancing to declining).\nUsing these parameters, plot only price changes that are greater than or equal to the box size and\ndisregard movements of lesser amounts. Advances are indicated by columns of Xs and declines by Os.\nAlthough this technique also can record intraday price changes, I am focusing here on daily movements.
If prices have been advancing lately then a column of Xs is building. At the conclusion of each day\nrecord increases of at least the box size by adding the appropriate number of Xs in progressively higher\nboxes within the current column. If prices do not increase by one box size or more and, instead, decline\nby at least the reversal amount, move one column to the right and begin charting Os in the same manner,\nbeginning one square below the highest X in the preceding column and moving progressively lower.\nContinue to record price changes in this way, ignoring movements of less than the box size and intraday\nfluctuations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-449-452-gann-analysis-on-point-and-figure-charts-by-douglas-arend-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-449-452-gann-analysis-on-point-and-figure-charts-by-douglas-arend-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-449-452-gann-analysis-on-point-and-figure-charts-by-douglas-arend-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-sideba-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (453-455): SIDEBAR: Analysis and moving averages"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Analysis and moving averages
Definition of terms used by the author when discussing indicators in the article \""Volume percentage ratio\"".
In interpreting any charted indicator, it is only the relative position of the plotted line that is important. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-453-455-sidebar-analysis-and-moving-averages-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-453-455-sidebar-analysis-and-moving-averages-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-453-455-sidebar-analysis-and-moving-averages-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-volperc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (453-455): Volume percentage ratio by Mike Burk"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume percentage ratio\nby Mike Burk
Volume is best used as a confirming indicator for general market trends and, in developing stock\nmarket indicators, I've found a trio of volume calculations that work well in anticipating cycle tops and\nbottoms. My basic volume indicator (Figures 1 and 2) is an exponential moving average of total volume\nwith a 0.04 smoothing constant.
It is plotted on a normal Y scale, that is, high values are the top of the scale. Although I have chosen the\nDow Jones Industrial Average to represent prices in these charts, broader indices such as the New York\nStock Exchange Index or Standard & Poor's 500-stock index give similar results.
The volume indicator usually begins to rise shortly after prices begin to rise and begins to fall shortly\nafter prices begin to fall. Volume has risen fairly steadily from the first of 1978 (which is as far back as\nmy data files go) until the peak in August 1987. There was a volume spike at the time of the October\n1987 stock market crash, after which volume declined until shortly after November 1988. Since then,\nvolume has risen with prices."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-453-455-volume-percentage-ratio-by-mike-burk-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-453-455-volume-percentage-ratio-by-mike-burk-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-453-455-volume-percentage-ratio-by-mike-burk-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-whatvol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (456-457): What volume is it? by Richard W. Arms, Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""What volume is it?\nby Richard W. Arms, Jr.
Markets often seem unpredictable and erratic. They give the impression of being disorganized because\nthey do not always behave as we think they should. We live by clocks and schedules, yet all too often\nprices do not behave in such a manner as to meet our schedules. Therefore we think they are illogical,\neven irrational.
Perhaps, however, it is our own lack of perception into the market that is the cause of our frustration.\nMaybe we are trying in vain to impose on the market our world of clocks and calendars. Could it be that a\nbetter measure of the market is volume rather than time? If so, maybe we need to readjust our thinking\nrather than declare the markets illogical. In the market, volume — shares or contracts traded — can be\nthought of as \""work done.\"" If there is no trading, nothing has happened, even though time may have\nelapsed."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-456-457-what-volume-is-it-by-richard-w-arms-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-456-457-what-volume-is-it-by-richard-w-arms-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-456-457-what-volume-is-it-by-richard-w-arms-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-howtoev-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (458-459): How to evaluate a commodity trading system by Kent Calhoun"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How to evaluate a commodity trading system\nby Kent Calhoun
The percentage of profitable trades, the average profitable trade, the average losing trade, the\nmaximum consecutive losing trades, the average profit per closed trade, the largest winning and losing\ntrades, the number of profitable buys and sells, the average number of days in losing and winning trades,\nand the equity return on margin are not what I use to determine whether a commodity trading system can\nbe traded.
Just because a system \""makes\"" money doesn't guarantee you will make money. I tested 60 systems that\n\""made\"" more than $ 1 million after commissions and slippage over six years, but discovered that 47 lost\nthe $100,000 beginning equity at some time during the six-year trading period.
Maximum equity drawdown determines the \""tradability\"" of a commodity system, not profits.
System developers initially defined maximum equity drawdown as the worst amount of equity drawdown\n(i. e., reduction of the equity in your account) on a close-to-close basis. Eventually, an intraday\nmaximum equity drawdown came to be used. This gave a more realistic worst-case scenario. I'd say\nneither of these maximum equity drawdown figures is adequate."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-458-459-how-to-evaluate-a-commodity-trading-system-by-kent-calhoun-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-458-459-how-to-evaluate-a-commodity-trading-system-by-kent-calhoun-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-458-459-how-to-evaluate-a-commodity-trading-system-by-kent-calhoun-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-firstth-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (462-463): First through the even by Grant Noble"",""caption-linebreaks"":""First through the even\nby Grant Noble
A few years ago I had the privilege of working with a former specialist, a broker's broker, on the New\nYork Stock Exchange. He told me how fellow specialists borrowed unlimited funds at 4%, how they used\n\""inside days\"" to tell where the market was headed, the importance of the \""two-step top.\"" But by far the\nmost profitable advice he gave was \""first through the even.\""
In January 1980, this specialist was approached by a large local making millions (open profits) from\nthousands of long gold contracts. Understandably nervous, the local asked, \""When do I cash in?\"" The\nanswer, \""First through the even.\""
There is a natural tendency for investors to take profits at even dollars—$9 silver, $8 soybeans, etc. The\nfirst time through these even numbers, normally there is a reaction."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-462-463-first-through-the-even-by-grant-noble-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-462-463-first-through-the-even-by-grant-noble-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-462-463-first-through-the-even-by-grant-noble-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-listen-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (464-465): Listen to the market by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Listen to the market\nby Thom Hartle
Technical analysis encompasses a myriad of approaches and, in the face of the trend toward high-tech,\nI admit to being less of a computer system trader and more of a traditional chartist. I actually prefer to\nstate that I analyze the bond futures market as an interaction of supply meeting demand and determining\nprice. That may sound decidedly low-tech, but behind the most exotic computer program ever developed\nfor trading it is still the forces of supply and demand that present the trading openings.
If demand appears to be stronger than supply then bonds should rally. But if supply is overcoming\ndemand, then the price of bonds should decline. I see these interactions on the price charts and try to form\ncorrect opinions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-464-465-listen-to-the-market-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-464-465-listen-to-the-market-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-464-465-listen-to-the-market-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-cheetah-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (466-467): Trade like a cheetah by Hans Hannula, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trade like a cheetah\nby Hans Hannula, Ph.D.
The cheetah: an endangered species who's survived against the odds. It has survived by using a simple\nset of two rules: be faster than anyone else, and be smarter than anyone else.
Sound like a good trading principle? At a recent Market Technicians Association (MTA) conference, in a\ndiscussion with Dr. Van Tharp, a trading psychologist, I learned something about top traders that I\nthought was unique to my own style of trading. What I learned was that many top traders use animals and\nhunting as a mental metaphor to guide their thinking when they 're trading. The metaphor I've always\nused is the cheetah.
To understand the cheetah you must understand a little bit of its history. The cheetah is a member of the\nlarge cat family, but it is a very different breed of cat. It was nearly hunted into extinction about 2,000\nyears ago. It somehow survived by retreating from populated areas and living in a confined space. The\nprice it paid for this survival was a great deal of inbreeding, which has genetically weakened the species.\nNevertheless, the species still survives, simply by following two \""rules\"": be faster and be smarter than\nother animals."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-466-467-trade-like-a-cheetah-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-466-467-trade-like-a-cheetah-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-466-467-trade-like-a-cheetah-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c12-canyou-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:12 (468-468): Can you draw a straight line? by Ron Jaenisch"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Can you draw a straight line?\nby Ron Jaenisch
The stock market has reached record highs and the markets are dominated by large financial\ninstitutions with vast computer systems to aid them in their decision making. If the average investor turns\nto the experts who write newsletters, varying opinions will be found. These days, if one doesn't have a\npersonal computer, one supposedly isn't managing his or finances properly.
Even with all this technology, the question often remains: Is this the end of the move or will it go further?\nNow, the investor with even the most sophisticated computers can get the answer by simply drawing a\nstraight line. The reliability of this method is really uncanny.
Here's how it works, as illustrated in Figure 1:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-468-468-can-you-draw-a-straight-line-by-ron-jaenisch-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-468-468-can-you-draw-a-straight-line-by-ron-jaenisch-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-12-468-468-can-you-draw-a-straight-line-by-ron-jaenisch-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c02-shortin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:2 (37-38): Short Interest by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Short Interest\nby Arthur A. Merrill
Short interest – the sale of borrowed stock – is one of the most useful tools of the technician. Short\nsales are made by pessimists, who expect prices to fall. If prices fall, the short seller can buy shares at a\nlower price and return the borrowed stock.
Because short sales are made by pessimists, it would seem that a high short interest, displaying a large\nnumber of bearish investors, would be a bearish indicator. No way! A high short interest means that past\nsales have been made, future purchases must be made. High short interest, therefore, represents high\npotential demand for stocks and has been found to be a bullish sign.
However, when you consider the ratio of short sales made by professionals to the short sales made by the\n\""public,\"" a high figure is bearish. When the professionals are pessimistic and the public is optimistic,\nbeware!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-37-38-short-interest-by-arthur-a-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-37-38-short-interest-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-37-38-short-interest-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c02-compari-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:2 (39-39): Comparing wave predictions by Jack K. Hutson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Comparing wave predictions\nby Jack K. Hutson
The challenge in Elliott Wave analysis is identifying and counting the correct waves. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-39-39-comparing-wave-predictions-by-jack-k-hutson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-39-39-comparing-wave-predictions-by-jack-k-hutson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-39-39-comparing-wave-predictions-by-jack-k-hutson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c02-creatin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:2 (40-42): Creating prices for system testing by D. Howard Phillips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Creating prices for system testing\nby D. Howard Phillips
Technical trading systems are evaluated using historical, real-time or computer-generated data. All\nthree data sources are useful, but computer-generated data can be the most powerful. In particular, using\ncomputer-generated price data that has a known trend percentage allows you to determine the\nperformance of a trading system statistically. These \""trend price streams\"" are helpful in evaluating any\ntechnical trading system, but are essential to evaluating, adaptive trading systems that learn from\nexperience and change their trading rules according to the characteristics of the price stream. If you want\nto evaluate an adaptive system, you must know how well it adapts to a known trend
Random number generators
I created the price stream in Figure 1 using a random number generator to assign either a plus or minus (+\nor -) to each number in the DELTA column, which shows the change in price.
Now, a simple definition of a trend is \""something repeating.\"" The interesting thing about random number\ngenerators is that they do generate trends. For each new price in the DELTA column, the probability of a\n+0.25 DELTA is equal to the probability of a -0.25 DELTA. Further, it is probable to have two, three or\nfour successive price increases (or successive price decreases). This leads to trend generation by all\nrandom number generators.
In Figure 1, the AVDELTA column gives the average of the five preceding DELTA values. The sign of\nthis average is the trend indicator, showing that the trend is either positive or negative. You can use the\nAVDELTA sign to create price streams having 10% trend, 20% trend or any other trend percentage, as\nillustrated in the equations in Figure 2. These price streams will never repeat and, therefore, are ideal for\nevaluating technical trading systems. They also do not contain sine waves or other periodic waveforms\nwhich can lead to unrealistic test results"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-40-42-creating-prices-for-system-testing-by-d-howard-phillips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-40-42-creating-prices-for-system-testing-by-d-howard-phillips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-40-42-creating-prices-for-system-testing-by-d-howard-phillips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c02-elliott-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:2 (43-46): An Elliott Wave perspective: DJIA 400 or 6000? by Elliot Brenner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""An Elliott Wave perspective: DJIA 400 or 6000?\nby Elliot Brenner
To put the stock market's present wave structure into perspective, I believe it is helpful to examine an\nimportant rule of Elliott Wave analysis—the Rule of Equality. This rule has been completely \""bent out of\nshape\"" by analysts who have used it to confirm that a long-term bull market advance has ended and a\nlong-term bear market correction has begun.
What is the Rule of Equality? It states that two of the impulse waves (waves in the direction of the main\ntrend) in any five-wave advance or decline will tend toward equality in terms of price and time. (In some\ncases, a Fibonacci relationship will exist.)
The largest wave observed by Elliott – the Grand Supercycle – entered its fifth and final wave pattern in\n1932 (see Stocks & Commodities, April 1988). This wave – called the Supercycle 2 has within it the\nrequisite five Cycle waves. Elliott Wave analysts are pretty much in agreement on the labeling of the\nSupercycle's first three waves (Figure 1). Wave 1 lasted from 1932 to 1937 (5 years) and saw the market\nadvance 372%. Wave 2, a corrective wave (a zigzag), lasted from 1937 to 1942 and saw the market give\nback 52%. Wave 3 lasted 24 years (1942-1966) and advanced an incredible 971%. It is Waves 4 and 5\nwhere many Elliott Wave analysts part company."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-43-46-an-elliott-wave-perspective-djia-400-or-6000-by-elliot-brenner-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-43-46-an-elliott-wave-perspective-djia-400-or-6000-by-elliot-brenner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-43-46-an-elliott-wave-perspective-djia-400-or-6000-by-elliot-brenner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c02-orb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:2 (47-49): Opening range breakout Part 4 by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Opening range breakout\nPart 4\nby Toby Crabel
Opening range breakout is a trade in which entry is taken at a predetermined amount above or below\nthe opening range. I've set this predetermined amount (the \""stretch\"") through observation. (See Stocks &\nCommodities, September 1988.) To trade the opening range breakout, a buy stop is placed above the high\nof the opening range an amount equal to the stretch and a sell stop is placed the same amount below the\nlow of the opening range. The first stop that is traded is your position.
An inside day is one in which the daily range is completely within the previous day's range. More\nspecifically, an inside day's high is less than the previous day's high and the inside day's low is greater\nthan the previous day's low.
Figures 1 and 2 demonstrate the inside day and the next day's opening range breakout technique. My\nhypothesis is that inside days precede trend day activity and, consequently, successful opening range\nbreakouts. Figure 3 tabulates the results of this hypothesis in the Treasury bond, S&P 500, soybean and\ncattle markets.
There were four tests per market with the only difference being the points of entry above or below the\nopen. For example, bond market tests were conducted on an entry 16 ticks above the open (open plus 16\nticks), 8 ticks above the open, 8 ticks below the open (open minus 8 ticks) and 16 ticks below the open."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-47-49-opening-range-breakout-part-4-by-toby-crabel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-47-49-opening-range-breakout-part-4-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-47-49-opening-range-breakout-part-4-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c02-winning-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:2 (53-55): Winning parameters for customized MACD by John A. Narvarte"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Winning parameters for customized MACD\nby John A. Narvarte
A common frustration with strategy testing is that it is not easy to find a profitable trading system,\nparticularly if you include brokerage fees. Even with a strategy that has worked for you in practice, the\ntest results are often not quite what you expect.
One obvious reason for this is that computerized strategy testing is totally mechanical. Signals are issued\nand trades are executed automatically, according to a predetermined scheme without the benefit of past\nexperience and without veto power.
Another possibility is that the strategy in question might be too short-term, resulting in an inordinate\nnumber of trades. Or else, the stock being tested might not respond to your strategy.
The purpose of this article is to present a long-term strategy that has tested positive for a number of\ncommon stocks over a recent time period. Its underlying indicator is a smoothed moving average\ndifference oscillator that requires four time-span parameters. Buy and sell signals are issued when it\ncrosses its \""signal\"" moving average. (This construction is very similar to Gerald Appel's Moving Average\nConvergence/Divergence Indicator (MACD). Contact Signalert Corp., 40 Middle Neck Road, Great\nNeck, NY 11021 for more information. Also, see Individual Stocks and MACD in this issue.) Before\ndefining the oscillator let me report some of my recent observations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-53-55-winning-parameters-for-customized-macd-by-john-a-narvarte-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-53-55-winning-parameters-for-customized-macd-by-john-a-narvarte-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-53-55-winning-parameters-for-customized-macd-by-john-a-narvarte-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c02-individ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:2 (56-61): Individual stocks and MACD by Thomas Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Individual stocks and MACD\nby Thomas Aspray
The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence method „ specifically MACD-Histogram (MACD-H)\nand MACD-Momentum (MACD-Mo) „ can be used to identify turning points in the commodity\nmarkets (See Stocks & Commodities, August and September 1988). MACD also is useful and valid for\nthe cash indices as well as individual stocks. In this article, I will show you how these indicators work on\nindividual stocks.
Calculating MACD is a straightforward matter (Figure 1). The real work is in choosing the moving\naverage period length. I calculate MACD-H using 10-, 20- and 10-periods (day or week). The MACD-H\nis the histogram version of the oscillator implemented in the CompuTrac system. My new MACD-Mo is\na 3-period smoothed (simple moving average) of a 10-period momentum of the MACD-H.
MACD formula
Gerald Appel, who developed MACD, originally used periods (days) of 12 and 26 days to calculate\nMACD and a 9-day average to get a \""signal\"" line. These periods may be translated into approximate\nexponential moving average (EMA) alpha's by a = 2/(n + 1), where \""n\"" is the number of days. Using\nthese values to be consistent with Appel's work,12 days = 0.15, 26 days = 0.074, and 9 days = 0.2. Thus, ...
Figure 2 - NYSE Composite
In this weekly chart, the first point to concentrate on is May 1987, where both MACD-H and the\nMACD-Mo were negative. The MACD-Mo flattened out in late May and started rising by late June. The\nMACD-H bottomed in the latter part of May and then began to rise. With both lines improving in\nmid-June, the retest of the lows provided a buying opportunity.
The MACD-H moved into the buy mode in the first week of July, point 1, and was confirmed one week\nlater when MACD-Mo crossed above the zero line, point 2."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-56-61-individual-stocks-and-macd-by-thomas-aspray-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-56-61-individual-stocks-and-macd-by-thomas-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-2-56-61-individual-stocks-and-macd-by-thomas-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-membert-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (100-101): Member Trading by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Member Trading\nby Arthur A. Merrill
Once a week, but two weeks late, the New York and American stock exchanges report some\ninteresting figures. You will find them in Barron's or The Wall Street Journal :
Total volume and total short sales;
Specialist purchases, sales
and short sales;
Floor traders purchases, sales
and short sales,
Odd lot purchases, sales
and short sales.
You can calculate the total exchange member figures by adding the specialist, floor traders and other\nmember numbers. Deduct member data from the total and you have a figure for the non-members or\npublic."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-100-101-member-trading-by-arthur-a-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-100-101-member-trading-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-100-101-member-trading-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-tactica-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (69-72): Tactical stock trading by Peter Eliason"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tactical stock trading\nby Peter Eliason
We have all heard that there is no solution to predicting the market because price movement is a\nrandom walk. The statement is partially right and partially wrong. Price movement may be random, but\nthere is an exact solution to a random walk that can be used to mathematically beat the markets.
The solution revolves around the use of a tempered martingale numerical series. This algorithm is not\nprobabilistic, but it is mathematically exact. (See Stocks & Commodities, July 1988, page 40.) It has two\ncomponents: a point spread that determines exactly when to buy and sell and a numerical series that\ndetermines how many shares to buy or sell to produce a pre-known gross profit.
We start with a beginning numerical series such as [1 2 3 4 5 6], with each number representing a\n\""factorable\"" number of shares to own. The \""factor\"" is multiplied times the number in the series to\ndetermine the number of shares which will be traded. For example, a factor of 100 would make the \""5\"" in\nthe series represent 500 shares.
Once we have the series, we need a \""base price\"" which is usually just the price of the last buy, sell or no\naction transaction. We start by buying at the base price and set two limit orders a point spread above (a\nsell) and below (a buy) the base price. If a stock's price is $10 per share, the limit orders may be set at $9\nor $11—or any other spread, for that matter."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-69-72-tactical-stock-trading-by-peter-eliason-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-69-72-tactical-stock-trading-by-peter-eliason-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-69-72-tactical-stock-trading-by-peter-eliason-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-cells-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (73-75): Analyzing indicators with the cells method by David R. Aronson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Analyzing indicators with the cells method\nby David R. Aronson
Does a given technical indicator have predictive value or not? This fundamental question must be\nanswered before using it to forecast market trends or as input to trading decisions. An intuitively\nappealing way to answer this question is what I call the signal event method. The signal event method\nevaluates the net profit or loss that would have resulted over some period of past data had a trader acted\non the buy and sell signals generated by the indicator. Applying the signal event method, the analyst\ndefines rules (i.e., one or more conditions) that generate buy and sell signals from the indicator. For\nexample, assume the indicator is a price momentum oscillator calculated by the difference between a\n3-day and a 10-day moving average. The indicator takes on positive values when the value of the 3-day\nmoving average is greater than the 10-day moving average and negative values when the reverse is true.\nOne possible signal rule could be: buy when the oscillator becomes positive; sell when it becomes\nnegative.
The signal event method has limitations. First, it requires the analyst to define a signal rule—and there\nare literally an infinite number of rules ranging from the simple to the highly complex that can be defined\nfor any given indicator. Thus, the analysis relates to the defined rule as much as it does to the indicator.\nI'd rather evaluate the indicator apart from any rules imposed on it.
Second, in the quest for better results, the analyst is often tempted to define complex,\nmultiple-conditioned rules . Such over-fitted rules are more likely to prove profitable on past data, by\nchance alone, and are not likely to do as well in the future."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-73-75-analyzing-indicators-with-the-cells-method-by-david-r-aronson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-73-75-analyzing-indicators-with-the-cells-method-by-david-r-aronson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-73-75-analyzing-indicators-with-the-cells-method-by-david-r-aronson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-volumew-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (76-77): Volume-weighted RSI: money flow by Gene Quong and Avrum Soudack"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume-weighted RSI: money flow\nby Gene Quong and Avrum Soudack
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) by J. Welles Wilder Jr. is one of the most popular technical\nindicators. RSI is included in most of the technical analysis software available today. Anyone conversant\nwith the algorithm used to calculate RSI knows that only the closing price is used. We believe RSI can be\nimproved by using volume to weight the index.
Classic market tops are characterized by an increase in volume. Technical indicators which rely only on\nprice changes do not reflect the whole picture. Volume can vary by an order of magnitude in selloffs. We\nbelieve that RSI's failure to account for volume is a serious deficiency because volume can vary widely in\nmarket tops and bottoms.
In an effort to improve the RSI we have devised a unique short-term technical indicator called Money\nFlow Index (MFI). This indicator attempts to measure the strength of money entering and leaving the\nmarket."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-76-77-volume-weighted-rsi-money-flow-by-gene-quong-and-avrum-soudack-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-76-77-volume-weighted-rsi-money-flow-by-gene-quong-and-avrum-soudack-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-76-77-volume-weighted-rsi-money-flow-by-gene-quong-and-avrum-soudack-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-pointfi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (78-81): Point and figure charts: an overview by Charles Idol"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Point and figure charts: an overview\nby Charles Idol
The popularity of the personal computer has given rise to a bewildering number of charting techniques.\nIn addition to a profusion of moving averages of one kind or another, we have linear regressions,\nstochastic methods, Fibonacci arcs, Gann angles and any number of applications of mathematical\ntechniques to stock data. This is progress, I suppose.
The drawback comes when this abundance shoves from the scene one of the most established and\nvenerable charting methods, one which embodies a unique philosophy as well as a very clever technique.
Point and figure (P&F) charting evolved over a long period and has been used by several generations of\ntraders in the stock and commodities future markets. Its application rests on the philosophy that the\nopinion of the investing community dominates the behavior of stocks and the market price epitomizes\nthat opinion.
This viewpoint is the antithesis of fundamentalism. You accept the truism that the real value of the stock\ncomes simply from what someone wants to pay for it. It follow that, with proper presentation, you can see\nthe ebb and flow of the community's opinion in the price action."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-78-81-point-and-figure-charts-an-overview-by-charles-idol-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-78-81-point-and-figure-charts-an-overview-by-charles-idol-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-78-81-point-and-figure-charts-an-overview-by-charles-idol-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-variabl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (82-85): Variable sensitivity stochastics by William Mason"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Variable sensitivity stochastics\nby William Mason
In this article, I am presenting elementary Statistical Analysis of Stocks and Indices (SASI) in an index,\nthree new indicators (SASITOP, SASIBOT and sigma limits) plus variable-sensitivity stochastics based\non statistical analysis. SASITOP is very similar to stochastics but uses plus and minus variance (sigma)\nlimits in place of the high and low over the time window. The data is modified for sharper sensitivity.\nBecause SASITOP and SASIBOT are the reciprocal of each other, I will concentrate only on SASITOP\nin this article and apply it to the Technical Index which measures overall market breadth (see Stocks &\nCommodities, January 1989) although it may be applied to any index or set of data.
To generate SASITOP:
1. Calculate the statistical sample variation s2. For a finite population, s2 is mathematically described by:
...
where X represents the values in your time series and n is number of observations
Don't panic. Use a spreadsheet like Lotus 1-2-3 which has a built in variance function. The Lotus 1-2-3\nvariance function has to be modified: s2m = s2[n/(n-1)] to account for a finite population (where n = the\ntime window). Some spreadsheets such as Excel have this modification built in to the variance (VAR)\nfunction.
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-82-85-variable-sensitivity-stochastics-by-william-mason-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-82-85-variable-sensitivity-stochastics-by-william-mason-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-82-85-variable-sensitivity-stochastics-by-william-mason-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-stochas-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (86-86): Stochastic oscillator by Mike Takano"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stochastic oscillator\nby Mike Takano
The stochastic oscillator is used to indicate overbought or oversold conditions on a scale of zero to 100%.
The stochastic process is based on the observation that as price decreases, the daily closes tend to\naccumulate nearer the extreme lows of the daily range."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-86-86-stochastic-oscillator-by-mike-takano-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-86-86-stochastic-oscillator-by-mike-takano-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-86-86-stochastic-oscillator-by-mike-takano-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-movavgs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (87-90): Moving averages and smoothing filters by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving averages and smoothing filters\nby John Ehlers
Moving averages are perhaps the single most widely used technical trading tool. While averages are\nimportant tools, let's face it—we don't need computers to calculate them. Traders were using moving\naverages long before simple calculators were commonly available. Traders simply computed the averages\nby hand. Since we have the awesome power of sophisticated computers now at our fingertips, it's logical\nto imagine that we can harness this power to create a better smoothing filter than the averages we now\nuse. I'll show that may not be so.
The object of a smoothing filter is to pass desired frequencies (like price cycles) and to reject the\nundesired frequencies such as \""noise\"" or \""jitter\"" in everyday market action. An exponential moving\naverage (EMA) is a filter in this sense because it attenuates (that is, diminishes) the high frequency\nvariations while retaining the desired lower frequency variations.
Exploiting the computer's power, we can increase the complexity of a filter's transfer response to create a\n\""stonewall\"" filter that has a sharp cutoff response. Such a filter passes all signals below the cutoff\nfrequency almost without attenuation and rejects nearly all signals above the selected frequency. Thus,\nlow frequency waves, like cycles, are extracted from a series of prices while high frequency noise is cut\nout."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-87-90-moving-averages-and-smoothing-filters-by-john-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-87-90-moving-averages-and-smoothing-filters-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-87-90-moving-averages-and-smoothing-filters-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-velocit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (91-95): Velocity of the S&P 500 by Robert A. Wood"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Velocity of the S&P 500\nby Robert A. Wood
Structural changes in security markets resulting from the introduction of derivative instruments, namely\noptions and futures, have been the focus of extensive study in recent years. More recently, the\nintroduction of portfolio insurance and arbitrage trading strategies involving market indices implemented\nwith program trading have been the subject of widespread concern, especially after the events of October\n19, 1987.
Do derivative instruments, portfolio insurance trading strategies and/or the ability to instantly trigger a\nlarge number of trades by computer destabilize markets given their current design? If so, can markets be\nsensibly re-engineered to accommodate these trading developments?
Recent studies have examined the historical trend of volatility and have not found substantial increases in\nthe changing levels of market volatility. As these studies are updated to include 1987 data, the results\nmay be significantly altered, but they still do not touch the issue of speed or velocity of market\nmovements, particularly in light of current trading strategies which could influence the rapidity of market\nmovements."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-91-95-velocity-of-the-s-p-500-by-robert-a-wood-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-91-95-velocity-of-the-s-p-500-by-robert-a-wood-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-91-95-velocity-of-the-s-p-500-by-robert-a-wood-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c03-testing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:3 (96-99): Testing breakout systems by Steve Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Testing breakout systems\nby Steve Notis
Breakout or volatility systems comprise a large portion of the current glut of publicly offered trading\nsystems. Many of these systems sell for $3,000 or more. For that price you usually get a nice software\npackage which will run optimizations on several variable parameters and give you a printout of the most\nprofitable runs.
Whether you can make money using those parameters is an open question. Aside from the software, you\nare buying the system designer's logic, whether fully disclosed or proprietary, which is embedded in the\nsoftware. You can adjust the input parameters to your heart's content but you cannot generally change the\nsystem's trading rules.
The core strategy of a breakout system is not new and has been previously described in books by J.\nWelles Wilder, Perry Kaufman and, most recently, by Larry Williams in his new book, The Definitive\nGuide To Futures Trading. Williams has developed a variation on the general theme which he calls his\n75% system. The logic is very clean and simple—you determine the daily range on the S&P 500 futures\ncontract for each of the past five days, you add the ranges together and then divide by five to get the\naverage range of the past five days. Multiply the average range by 0.75 so that you have a number which\nrepresents 75% of the average five day range."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-96-99-testing-breakout-systems-by-steve-notis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-96-99-testing-breakout-systems-by-steve-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-3-96-99-testing-breakout-systems-by-steve-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-member-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (103-105): Member and public short selling by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Member and public short selling\nby Arthur A. Merrill
Total short sales figures, published by the New York and American stock exchanges, are a useful set of\nfigures for gauging market moods. Total short sales figures are reported in The Wall Street Journal and\nBarron's. Exchange members and non-members, or the public, make up the total short sales figures.
You can calculate the total exchange member figures by adding the specialist, floor traders and other\nmember numbers. Deduct member data from the total and you have a figure for the non-members or\npublic.
Some analysts report \""members total\"" and \""public short sales\"" figures as a percentage of the total short\ninterest. These percentages compare the relative size of the member short sales to the public short sales,\nbut conceal the absolute values. This makes it difficult to tell whether the shorting is light or heavy.
For this reason, I prefer to express the short selling as a percentage of the trading volume on a given day.\nThis is the usual method of expressing the monthly short interest. It reveals the size of the shorting,\ncorrected for the volume of trading. You can then compare the public and member shorts to find out who\nis doing the shorting. You get double duty from the data.
The separation of member and public short sales is revealing. It shows the degree of pessimism of the\nsmart money and the not-so-smart money."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-103-105-member-and-public-short-selling-by-arthur-a-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-103-105-member-and-public-short-selling-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-103-105-member-and-public-short-selling-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-pfanaly-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (106-108): Point and figure: Analysis and projection Part 2 by Charles Idol"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Point and figure: Analysis and projection\nPart 2
by Charles Idol
The fundamental pattern in point and figure charting — the congestion area — occurs after a\nsubstantial rise or fall in the price of a stock as the investment community adjusts to the new price. This\ncongestion area looks like sideways price activity within a trading range (Figure 1). As a rule of thumb,\nthe trading ranges are about 15% of the price for a low-priced stock, 10% for a medium-priced stock and\n5% for a high-priced stock.
Usually, you use the one-point box, one-box reversal charts (a 1x1 chart) to study congestion areas,\nalthough with stocks selling below $20, the half-point, one-box reversal chart may turn out better. Point\nrefers to the amount of price change necessary to generate an \""x\"" or an \""o\"" along the y-axis. Box is the\nnumber of price points necessary to change from \""x\"" to \""o\"" along the x-axis. Figure 1 is a 1x1 chart for\nthe hypothetical Universal Widget Corporation. I've numbered the columns of the chart to assist our\nanalysis. Notice the congestion pattern between columns 14 and 27 when the price ranged from $28 to\n$31. Because this pattern formed at the base of a decline, we recognize it as a support level — a price at\nwhich any future declines will encounter resistance.
The strength or effectiveness of a congestion area as a support or resistance level depends, in part, on its\nwidth. The definition of how many columns make a wide area depends on the individual stock."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-106-108-point-and-figure-analysis-and-projection-part-2-by-charles-idol-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-106-108-point-and-figure-analysis-and-projection-part-2-by-charles-idol-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-106-108-point-and-figure-analysis-and-projection-part-2-by-charles-idol-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-mastero-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (109-111): Master oscillator by William Mason"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Master oscillator\nby William Mason
Is it possible to produce an overall market entry or exit signal based on several indicators/indices? In\nanswering this intriguing question, I asked myself, \""What do I look at and look for as my first quick\nestimate of the market trend and direction?\"" My answer was that I go to three or four of my favorite\nindicators/indices and find out where they are in respect to their 10% exponential smoothing average (a\n20-day moving average) which has proven, with time, to be a very good short-term support or resistance\nline.
My next thought was, instead of trying to remember where each indicator/index is with respect to its 10%\nexponential smoothing curve, why not let the computer keep track of the relationships? Then I thought,\n\""Why not take all of the differences between my favorite indicators/indices, algebraically combine the\nresult and take the average to produce an integrated picture of what I had been doing mentally?\"" Here's\nhow I proceeded and the results:
• STEP 1 - First of all, I picked as indicators/indices the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the\nTechnical Index, Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the Technical Index and the Cash Flow Index. The\nTechnical Index is already composed of advancing minus declining issues, up volume minus declining\nvolume, and new highs minus new lows (see Stocks & Commodities, December 1988.) The Cash Flow\nIndex is the accumulated product of the daily net volume times the daily net Technical Index.
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-109-111-master-oscillator-by-william-mason-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-109-111-master-oscillator-by-william-mason-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-109-111-master-oscillator-by-william-mason-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-simplec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (112-114): A simple cycle finder by Curtis McKallip Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""A simple cycle finder\nby Curtis McKallip Jr.
Cycle signatures are patterns created by cycles. If you're familiar with Fourier analysis and maximum\nentropy methods of cycle analysis you know they produce a pattern called amplitude spectra which\nrequires a computer to calculate.
In some situations where you might not wish or be able to use a computer, I have an effective method\nthat, compared to computerized mathematics, is crude. Literally, it is a back-of- the-envelope method.\nYet it is fast and gives you critical information identifying when your next trading window will arrive.
This method tells you about the variation in timing of cycles as well as their length. In the following\nprocedure, assume you are looking for cycles of lows (The steps are similar for highs):
1. Get a price chart showing at least four or five cyclical lows. The longer the time period the chart\ncovers, the more information you gain about the cycles.
2. Using a ruler, mark a vertical line through each low you consider to be important (Figure 1). You will\nhave to decide what magnitude of low is important.
3. On the edge of an envelope or sheet of paper, mark a 1-inch vertical line which I refer to as the starting\nmark. Place this line next to the first cycle low on the price chart.
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-112-114-a-simple-cycle-finder-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-112-114-a-simple-cycle-finder-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-112-114-a-simple-cycle-finder-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-hines-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (115-118): Hines ratio by Ray Hines"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Hines ratio\nby Ray Hines
In 1982, I found the best way to design an indicator that stays with a trend until it has run its course is to\nisolate the factors that correlate highest with the price trend and monitor their intensity.
The relative intensity of correlating factors is the primary influence on price behavior and overcomes the\nweakness of \""fixed\"" trend indicators that contain the analyst's preconception of what length a trend\nshould be.
This result forced me to become an even bigger fan of investor emotion and the monetary areas because\nof their powerful influence on price behavior. What more emotional animal could there be on Wall Street\nthan the world of options?
I felt that the traditional sentiment measure — the put/call ratio — was a distorted method of measuring\nsentiment. Why? Because put and call option activity consistently gives more meaningful readings if it is\nmeasured in relation to the open interest associated with it. The resulting short-term strength ratios below\nalso give a trader the ability to differentiate the sentiment associated with both sides of the investment\nargument, the bulls and the bears:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-115-118-hines-ratio-by-ray-hines-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-115-118-hines-ratio-by-ray-hines-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-115-118-hines-ratio-by-ray-hines-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-orb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (119-120): Opening range breakout Part 5 by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Opening range breakout\nPart 5\nby Toby A. Crabel
A trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the opening price of a given day is called an\nopening range breakout (ORB).A narrow range four pattern (NR 4) is a day with a daily range that is\nnarrower than the previous three days' daily ranges compared individually. In my experience, trades using\nthe ORB technique on a day following an NR 4 pattern tend to coincide with trend day activity—and,\nconsequently, successful ORBs.
Figures 1 and 2 demonstrate an ORB on the day following the NR 4 pattern. The table in Figure 3 shows\nthe results of testing the relationship between the NR4 pattern and trending markets with this technique.\naction on the day of an ORB. There were four tests per market and the only difference between them was\nthe point of entry above or below the open. Trades were entered on a stop at the indicated level with an\nexit on the same day's close."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-119-120-opening-range-breakout-part-5-by-toby-crabel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-119-120-opening-range-breakout-part-5-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-119-120-opening-range-breakout-part-5-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-underst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (121-123): Understanding Market Profile Part 6 by Thomas P. Drinka and Stephen M. Ptasienski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Understanding Market Profile\nPart 6
by Thomas P. Drinka and Stephen M. Ptasienski
Range extensions are the intraday price moves that hold good profit potential. Many current trading\nsystems use them although they are typically called opening range breakouts (See \""Opening Range\nBreakout, Part 5\"" in this issue). Our research into the range extensions of the Chicago Board of Trade's\nMarket Profile report suggests there are analyses that Market Profile traders may wish to conduct on a\nday-to-day basis. We tabulated the frequency and magnitude of range extensions of 12 markets from\nFebruary 1 to July 29, 1988, using nearby contracts only.
According to J. Peter Steidlmayer, Market Profile's author, price probes attributed primarily to\n\""day-time-frame\"" traders usually converge to an initial balance during the first two half-hour periods of a\ntrading session. Once the initial balance is established, the only possible development is an imbalance, or\nrange extension, attributed to \""other-time-frame\"" traders.
Figure 1 is a frequency distribution of the half-hour periods during which range extension first occurs\nduring the trading session. The initial balance of CBOT corn, for example, is assumed to be established\nduring the D and E periods. Then, during the six-month period of analysis, the first instance of range\nextension occurred during the F period in 32% of the trading sessions, during G period in 19% of the\ntrading sessions, and so on. As the table shows, the first range extension of the day occurs most often\nimmediately following the first hour of trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-121-123-understanding-market-profile-part-6-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-stephen-m-ptasienski-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-121-123-understanding-market-profile-part-6-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-stephen-m-ptasienski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-121-123-understanding-market-profile-part-6-by-thomas-p-drinka-and-stephen-m-ptasienski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-alphabe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (124-129): Alpha-beta trend following system Version II, tuning for performance by Anthony W. Warren Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Alpha-beta trend following system\nVersion II, tuning for performance\nby Anthony W. Warren Ph.D.
Several years ago, I published the alpha-beta trend following method in Technical Analysis of Stocks &\nCommodities. Although similar in concept to the classic moving average crossing systems, this method\nutilized an uncertainty band or trend channel to eliminate most of the false signals associated with\nmoving average crossings. In addition, it graphically represented the preferred times to go long, go short\nand to stay out of a particular stock, bond or commodity market.
One of the problems, however, with the original alpha-beta code published in Stocks & Commodities in\n1985 was that it did not easily lend itself to profitability analysis or tuning the input parameters. The\noriginal code chose the trend channel's width based on all the data in the file, rather than just the data\nprior to each trading date.
The revised computer code listed at the end of this article is more responsive to the current market\nenvironment and is more easily tuned to eliminate spurious trading signals and to exit with maximum\nprofit! Let moving averages rest in peace. Try alpha-beta!
Methodology
The alpha-beta trend-following method plots four time series:
the current price time history which, typically, is the daily or weekly closing price,
the upper and lower trend channels which define the uncertainty band for trade decisions, and
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-124-129-alpha-beta-trend-following-system-version-ii-tuning-for-performance-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-124-129-alpha-beta-trend-following-system-version-ii-tuning-for-performance-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-124-129-alpha-beta-trend-following-system-version-ii-tuning-for-performance-by-anthony-w-warren-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-sideba-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (124-129): SIDEBAR: Alpha-beta, Version II"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Alpha-beta, Version II
This generic QuickBASIC routine for computing alpha-beta trend channels and trading filters assumes\nthat you already have a means of inputing historical time series data into an appropriately dimensioned\narray X(M,N), where M >= 4 and N is at least as large as NUM, the number of time points in the input\ndata.
You also will need some method of plotting the trend channel and trading filter on the same graph."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-124-129-sidebar-alpha-beta-version-ii-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-124-129-sidebar-alpha-beta-version-ii-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-124-129-sidebar-alpha-beta-version-ii-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-discipl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (130-131): Discipline in trading by James Covington Bryce"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Discipline in trading\nby James Covington Bryce
I would like you to bear with me for a moment and consider something that, at first, might appear to be\na little \""far out.\"" Let's say all of a sudden you found yourself going about your daily tasks but you didn't\nhave your body! Now I know it is a crazy idea, but consider it for a moment. How would you describe\nyourself? What would you be? You only live in your body. What you are really is not tangible, i.e., it\ncannot be measured by any of the five senses.
This, my friend, is a very important exercise relative to stock and futures trading because successful\ntrading depends on knowing who and what you are. Most people simply do not know themselves very\nwell and, consequently, are unable to identify their friends and their enemies within, much less control\nthem. Anyone who actively trades the stock, option or futures markets is actually taking a major course in\npsychology and a minor course in trading. Traders find many of their \""selves\"" staring them in the face\nevery day. The smart thing to do is to take advantage of this through observing and taking note of these\ncharacteristics that are brought to the fore. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-130-131-discipline-in-trading-by-james-covington-bryce-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-130-131-discipline-in-trading-by-james-covington-bryce-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-130-131-discipline-in-trading-by-james-covington-bryce-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c04-cyclicp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:4 (132-134): Cyclic personalities by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cyclic personalities\nby John Ehlers
Are there basic differences in the cyclic behavior of various commodities? Although theory predicts\nshort-term cycles will come and go, there is no theory predicting different cyclic \""personalities\"" for\ndifferent commodities. My experience has been that cyclic trading is successful for some commodities\nbut not for others. My curiosity about the cyclic behavior of different commodities was aroused during\nthe development of a Maximum Entry Spectral Analysis program (MESA) that provided backtesting.\nUsing the program, I measured the cycles of 12 commodities over the past two years. I found that each\ncommodity does have its own cyclic personality. Moreover, commodities within the same category\n(meats, grains, metals) do not necessarily have similar cyclic personalities.
Cycle measurements
I used perpetual daily contracts containing 500 records, and the average of the high and low for each day\ndetermined the price from which the cycle was measured. The program then measured the short-term\ncycles for each 50- day period, starting with record number 50. (The program needed the first 50 records\nto make the first measurement.) The dominant cycle and cyclic content were measured daily for records\n50-500, a total of 451 measurements.
\""Cyclic content\"" is a signal-to-noise ratio over 6 decibels. Noise is all of the non-cyclic energy with\nperiods of less than 5 days and greater than 40 days. (Noise by this definition includes trendlines as well\nas the random day-to-day fluctuations of price.) My experience is that a cyclic content of at least 6\ndecibels is useful for trading. At lower values, the noise greatly influences any predictions based on\ncycles, reducing the accuracy of the predictions. Therefore, I discarded measurements having a cyclic\ncontent of less than 6 decibels."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-132-134-cyclic-personalities-by-john-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-132-134-cyclic-personalities-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-4-132-134-cyclic-personalities-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c05-newcycl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:5 (137-139): A new cycle analysis trading technique by Russell L. Miller"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A new cycle analysis trading technique\nby Russell L. Miller
This article describes a novel cycle-based day trading system that, under testing, turned in nearly a\n300% annualized profit on equity. In most cases, trading with cycles involves entering a position at a\ncycle peak or valley and holding the position through a half cycle until it's time for the direction to\nchange. My system, on the other hand, uses cycle analysis to predict the direction of the next day's move\nin a commodity so that a long or a short position can be entered at the next day's open and exited at the\nclose of the market.
I chose day trading to avoid the risk, insomnia and high margins involved in overnight positions. I set up\nentry and exit rules for the trader who wants to make a decision the night before and not be tied to\nwatching the board all day. The tools used in this system include spreadsheets and MESA, a cycle\nanalysis program that measures any cycles that exist in any set of 60 data points and predicts the next 15\ndata points on the assumption that the cycles will remain unchanged.
Testing approach
I first tested a synthetic data file made up from a pure sine wave with MESA. This was too easy, so I\nchanged the data file to a compound wave created by adding three sine waves with out of-phase\nfrequencies and varying amplitudes (Figure 1)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-137-139-a-new-cycle-analysis-trading-technique-by-russell-l-miller-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-137-139-a-new-cycle-analysis-trading-technique-by-russell-l-miller-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-137-139-a-new-cycle-analysis-trading-technique-by-russell-l-miller-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c05-public-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:5 (140-142): Public/member short selling by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Public/member short selling\nby Arthur Merrill
The statistics on shorting by professionals and by the public can be combined into revealing and\nsuccessful indicators. The basic figures are published, two weeks late, in Barron's and The Wall Street\nJournal. The New York and American stock exchanges report total short sales and the portions of the\ntotal made up by specialists, floor traders and other members for their own account.
These three subcategories can be added together to yield \""total members,\"" or shorting by the smart\nmoney. Total members can be subtracted from total short sales to yield \""public short sales,\"" or\nnot-so-smart shorts.
Analysts John McGinley and Walter Deemer have promoted a simple comparison of the two groups\nusing a ratio of public short sales to member short sales. When this index has a high value, the public is\nmore pessimistic than the professionals. This is a bullish sign. To smooth out the fluctuations, I use a\n22% exponential moving average. (To calculate, add 22% of each new statistic to 78% of the preceding\naverage to yield a new average.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-140-142-public-member-short-selling-by-arthur-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-140-142-public-member-short-selling-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-140-142-public-member-short-selling-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c05-timepri-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:5 (143-146): Time, price and pattern by Robert Miner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Time, price and pattern\nby Robert Miner
This article is taken from the notes of my trading log for a closed and open trade in the platinum\nmarket. My trading plan is three-dimensional. I look for coincidences of time, price and pattern in market\nactivity to indicate trades that promise maximum profit potential with minimum exposure and risk. Only\nwhen the market completes a reliable pattern, near a time period indicating a change in trend and at an\nimportant price level, do I enter or exit a trade. All three dimensions must coincide.
The time ratio analysis of the recent major cycles in the gold market indicated that the period near\nSeptember 16-27, 1988 would likely result in an important change in trend.
Timing, as well as price activity, is often related to the important Fibonacci ratio of 61.8%. Most traders\nare well aware that price often retraces 61.8% of the prior swing. This important Fibonacci ratio is also\nvery important in my timing analysis for the precious metals markets. A change in trend often results near\na61.8% time ratio of a prior cycle extended from the completion of that cycle. Let me illustrate and\nexplain why I was looking for an important change in trend near September 16-27.
The \""death zone\""
My timing analysis for platinum (Figure 1) is primarily keyed off the gold market cycles. The December\n14, 1987 high to the June 2, 1988 high in gold equaled 171 calendar days. The Fibonacci ratio of 61.8%\ntimes 171 equals 106 and 106 calendar days from the June 2 high fell on September 16."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-143-146-time-price-and-pattern-by-robert-miner-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-143-146-time-price-and-pattern-by-robert-miner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-143-146-time-price-and-pattern-by-robert-miner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c05-adline-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:5 (147-149): An advance/decline line for commodities by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""An advance/decline line for commodities\nby Thom Hartle
One of the first technical lessons in stock market investing is understanding the relationship between the\nmovements of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the advance/decline (A/D) line for the New\nYork Stock Exchange. The A/D line is the cumulative difference between the number of issues trading up\non the day and the number of issues trading down on the day. If 235 issues are up and 356 issues are\ndown then the A/D value for the day will be -121.
You may begin a cumulative total with any number. If you start with 1,000 and add today' s total of -121,\nthe cumulative A/D value is 879. If the next day is up 329 issues and down 124 issues, that difference of\n+205 is added to the previous day' s cumulative value (879) for a new total of 1,084.
Each day's cumulative value is plotted on a chart along with the daily closes for the DJIA. Technicians\nwatch for confirmation (both the DJIA and the A/D line are trending higher or lower together) or\nnon-confirmation (the DJIA is trending higher while the A/D line is moving lower or the DJIA is moving\nlower while the A/D line is improving). Watching for this confirmation or non-confirmation is a study of\nthe breadth of stock market movements. Knowing the breadth of rallies or declines can help determine\nthe chances of a broad-based move up or a very weak downtrend developing."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-147-149-an-advance-decline-line-for-commodities-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-147-149-an-advance-decline-line-for-commodities-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-147-149-an-advance-decline-line-for-commodities-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c05-traditi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:5 (150-153): Traditional chart analysis: A neglected tool? by Thomas Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traditional chart analysis: A neglected tool?\nby Thomas Aspray
With the virtual explosion of computerized technical analysis over the past few years, some basic\nmethods of analysis are often forgotten or at least neglected. I confess that I have even contributed to the\noutbreak of \""oscillatoritis\"" by focusing my research and writing on developing new, computerized\ntechnical indicators. Despite this, traditional chart analysis does play an important role in my own\nanalysis.
Traditional chart analysis is a proven method of analysis and I feel it can be very useful, even for the\nsophisticated trader. The two primary advantages, in my view, are the additional discipline it can add to a\ntrading plan and the ability to calculate reasonable price objectives and protective stops from the chart\nformations.
In the ideal head and shoulders top (Figure 1), the left shoulder usually has the peak volume. Volume\nthen decreases during the formation of the head, indicating that demand is weakening. Volume, typically,\nwill be weakest during the development of the right shoulder. On the breakout below the neckline, the\nvolume should expand as sellers take control of the market. The objective after the breakout is the\ndistance, D, from the peak of the head to the neckline.
An ideal double top (Figure 2) has peak volume during the first drive toward resistance. On the second\nattempt to break resistance, volume is low, which indicates demand is weak. After the breakout below the\nsupport line, the minimum objective is the distance, D, from the peak in prices to the support line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-150-153-traditional-chart-analysis-a-neglected-tool-by-thomas-aspray-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-150-153-traditional-chart-analysis-a-neglected-tool-by-thomas-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-150-153-traditional-chart-analysis-a-neglected-tool-by-thomas-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c05-avgsyst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:5 (154-156): Averaging systems by Charles Idol"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Averaging systems\nby Charles Idol
Everyone knows the secret of successful investing: buy low and sell high. Unfortunately, that rule\nrequires accurate market predictions. If clouds obscure your crystal ball, it would be to your advantage to\nconsider the merits of the averaging systems.
Dollar averaging has been advocated for a long time as a conservative, reasonably successful system\nwhich takes some advantage of market cycles, surpasses the \""buy it and forget it\"" syndrome and requires\nalmost no thought on the part of the investor. Value averaging requires a little more work, participates\nmore deeply in the market cycle and appears to outperform dollar averaging.
The dollar averaging system requires only that you choose a security in which you wish to invest a fixed\namount of money at regular intervals, usually every month. Usually, dividends or distributions are\nre-invested. Very simple in application, the method lends itself to a budget for investment and takes\nadvantage of market cycles because you purchase more shares per unit time in the low portions of the\ncycle and fewer in the high portions. However, you need cyclical market behavior and you must\nparticipate over at least one cycle.
Value averaging requires that you choose a security in which you wish to have your equity increase by a\nfixed amount at regular intervals, again usually every month. To implement this method, you begin by\ninvesting the budgeted amount. At the start of the next month, you multiply the current share value by the\nnumber of shares you hold to see how much you must invest to increase your equity by the amount of\nyour plan."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-154-156-averaging-systems-by-charles-idol-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-154-156-averaging-systems-by-charles-idol-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-154-156-averaging-systems-by-charles-idol-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c05-dollarl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:5 (157-158): DollarLink by Rich Rosen"",""caption-linebreaks"":""DollarLink\nby Rich Rosen
A major new software package called DollarLink has quietly hit the market. The name isn't the\ngreatest, but traders will find this extraordinary real-time program blows away anything on the market.\nSome very strong words indeed—now let's see if I can back them up.
Right from the get-go, you know DollarLink was carefully written by the way the installation program\nsteps you through a list of 40 fairly involved and low or asked. In addition, prices can be displayed either\nin decimal or fractions and they change color from green to white to red depending on whether the\nincoming trade is up, unchanged or down. Price and volume alarms are easily set easily and all prices are\ncleverly error checked by percentage change."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-157-158-dollarlink-by-rich-rosen-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-157-158-dollarlink-by-rich-rosen-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-157-158-dollarlink-by-rich-rosen-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c05-mrkfore-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:5 (159-160): The Market Forecaster by Mark Hallinan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Market Forecaster\nby Mark Hallinan
The\nMarket Forecaster is a program based on an econometric model of the U.S. stock market over the\npast 25 years, which produces a forecast of the U.S. stock market for the next 40 to 80 trading days. It\nwas recently updated with a completely new regression equation, with significantly different inputs.
The program I reviewed consisted of a single 5-1/4 inch IBM diskette, a 37-page manual plus a few data\ncollection sheets, a startup sheet and a sheet which indicates in detail where the input information can be\nobtained from Barron' s \""Market Laboratory\"" section."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-159-160-the-market-forecaster-by-mark-hallinan-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-159-160-the-market-forecaster-by-mark-hallinan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-159-160-the-market-forecaster-by-mark-hallinan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c05-orb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:5 (161-163): Opening Range Breakout Part 6 by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Opening Range Breakout\nPart 6\nby Toby Crabel
Two price chart patterns — the inside day (ID) and the four-day narrowing range (NR 4) — have\nproven to be reliable predecessors of trending action that can be profitably traded with an opening range\nbreakout (ORB) system. (See Stocks & Commodities, February and April 1989.)
What happens to the predictive power of these patterns when they're combined? My research assumption\nwas that, because they were both individually successful, they would produce clearer ORB buy/sell\nindications when combined.
I examined this assumption in several ways. First, I directly tested how the ID/NR 4 pattern affected ORB\ntrades entered at various points on either side of the opening range (Figure 1). Secondly, I compared the\npercentage of winning trades taken after the ID/NR 4, ID and NR 4 patterns and on any day regardless of\nwhether or not a pattern existed (Figure 2)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-161-163-opening-range-breakout-part-6-by-toby-crabel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-161-163-opening-range-breakout-part-6-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-5-161-163-opening-range-breakout-part-6-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-largebl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (165-167): Large block transactions by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Large block transactions\nby Arthur Merrill
Here is an indicator that reveals the direction of enthusiasm of the big operators. Are they reaching for\nstock, even at higher prices? Or, on the other hand are they eager to unload, even at lower prices? The big\noperators are usually the most informed traders; we should pay heed to their actions.
The source data for this indicator each week is a summary table in Barron's. All big trades on the New\nYork Stock exchange are noted, and the number of upticks, downticks and unchanged are counted and\nreported. The trades are separated into two categories: more than 100,000 shares and less than 100,000\nbut more than 50,000. A sale on an uptick is a sale at a price higher than the last trade; a sale on a\ndowntick is at a price lower than the previous trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-165-167-large-block-transactions-by-arthur-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-165-167-large-block-transactions-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-165-167-large-block-transactions-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-secret-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (168-170): The secret of trading success: COMMITMENT by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The secret of trading success: COMMITMENT\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Jack had a successful business, but he wanted to be a trader. Still, he wasn't willing to give up his\nannual $75,000 salary until he was certain he could be successful as a trader. So, he just dabbled in the\nmarkets, waiting to find the magic secret. He tried different brokers, advisors, software programs and\nsystems. But it was always the same result—he never made enough money.
One day, Jack discovered the name of a trader who had made consistent and large profits in the markets\nfor over 30 years. He learned this trader would teach anyone willing to learn how to trade effectively. So,\nJack packed his bags and went to visit him.
\""I want to be a trader,\"" Jack told the old trader. \""I understand you are willing to teach people how to do\nwhat you've been doing for the past 30 years.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-168-170-the-secret-of-trading-success-commitment-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-168-170-the-secret-of-trading-success-commitment-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-168-170-the-secret-of-trading-success-commitment-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-dailyst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (171-173): Daily stock tendencies by L. R. James"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Daily stock tendencies\nby L. R. James
Most of us who have done a substantial amount of stock trading would agree that the broad market\ndoes a lot of funny things. In theory, the stock market is a vast, highly efficient mechanism that takes in\ninformation, evaluates it and adjusts its pricing according to its consensus opinion of the future. Over the\nlonger term, that's basically what it does. However, over shorter periods of time, there are some\ninteresting quirks in the way the market operates.
One of the more interesting of these departures from efficiency involves changes in stock prices with\nrespect to the day of the week. Just as some people tend to favor one day over another, so does the stock\nmarket. As shown in Figure 1, from December 23, 1986 to January 11, 1989, stock price changes\noccurred according to a pattern in which Tuesdays and Wednesdays tended to give the best performance.\nPrices on those two days were up a significantly higher percentage of the time and yielded much better\nreturns on investment than the two runner-up days, Thursday and Friday.
The laggard, with an already established reputation in the financial media, was Monday. Monday was an\nup day less than 50% of the time during the two years and, largely as a result of the crash on Monday,\nOctober 19, 1987, the day had a substantial loss compared to the others."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-171-173-daily-stock-tendencies-by-l-r-james-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-171-173-daily-stock-tendencies-by-l-r-james-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-171-173-daily-stock-tendencies-by-l-r-james-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-ustreas-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (174-176): U.S. Treasury auctions and technical analysis by Gerald S. Celaya"",""caption-linebreaks"":""U.S. Treasury auctions and technical analysis\nby Gerald S. Celaya
The auction process in the Treasury bond market creates a problem for technical analysts—the newly\nauctioned issue has none of the historical price data needed for technical analysis and prices for the new\nbond are usually quite different from prices of the old bond due to different maturities and coupons.
Charts, as well as databases, are affected by the bond auction. Technical indicators—trend-following or\nmomentum oscillators—require historical data. Thus, the lack of data limits the usefulness of most\ntechnical trading systems for the new issue.
There are many methods that attempt to solve this rollover problem, but I believe keeping a database of\nyields and then converting the yields to price for the newly auctioned issue will solve the rollover\nproblem quite well."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-174-176-u-s-treasury-auctions-and-technical-analysis-by-gerald-s-celaya-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-174-176-u-s-treasury-auctions-and-technical-analysis-by-gerald-s-celaya-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-174-176-u-s-treasury-auctions-and-technical-analysis-by-gerald-s-celaya-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-speedin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (177-179): Speeding up the oscillator by Grady Garrett"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Speeding up the oscillator\nby Grady Garrett
In 1986, I began a study of Standard & Poor's 100-stock Index (OEX) in search of a reliable mechanical\ntrading indicator. This was a volatile time for the OEX— the bull market was getting its second wind and\nI idealistically looked for something to help pick tops and bottoms.
A popular and time-tested study is the moving average oscillator, which is simply a histogram of the\ndifference between a fast (shorter-period) moving average and a slow (longer-period) moving average,\neither simple or exponential.
The classic method to trade the oscillator is to enter long on positive crossovers when the fast-moving\naverage crosses above the slower-moving average and to exit long on negative crossovers. For my\nresearch, I assumed the trader was always in the market, so that exiting long implied entering short and\nvice versa. This type of system generally works best in slow-trending markets and seems to become\ninefficient in very volatile markets that frequently change direction."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-177-179-speeding-up-the-oscillator-by-grady-garrett-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-177-179-speeding-up-the-oscillator-by-grady-garrett-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-177-179-speeding-up-the-oscillator-by-grady-garrett-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-windows-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (180-184): Windows of opportunity by Douglas Arend"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Windows of opportunity\nby Douglas Arend
Entering a commodities position typically is a two-step process. First, a decision must be made on the\nexpected direction of the market. This is the set-up. Next, some method for timing the entry is required.\nI'll refer to this as the signal. Certain indicators and techniques are inherently better suited for the set-up,\nwhile others tend to perform well as signals. The key is to separate these functions and select methods\nwhich have proven themselves over time.
My approach is to identify an expected direction in the market lasting from several days to a period of\nweeks. Then, having done this, I look for entry signals consistent with this expectation. The time\nintervals during which both conditions are satisfied may be anywhere from several minutes to several\nhours and I refer to them as windows.
The easiest way to separate functions is by the length of time they cover. I construct my set-up to cover\nseveral weeks and even months, while my entry signals are generated by day trading techniques. This\ncombination gives consistent results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-180-184-windows-of-opportunity-by-douglas-arend-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-180-184-windows-of-opportunity-by-douglas-arend-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-180-184-windows-of-opportunity-by-douglas-arend-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-simplem-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (185-187): Simple moving average crossover by Peter Aan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Simple moving average crossover\nby Peter Aan
Editor's note:In this issue, Peter Aan reports on the first of his tests of different trading systems. He\nbegins with probably the most widely known trading system.
General Description:
Trend following, always in the market.
Originator: Unknown
Rules and Formulas: The moving average crossover method calculates two moving averages, each\nbased on a different number of days of trading data (Figure 1).
When the shorter-term (fewer days) average crosses above the longer-term average from below, this is\na buy signal for tomorrow's open. When the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term average\nfrom above, this is a sell signal for tomorrow's open.
To compute a simple moving average (MA) of the closes, take the sum of the closes for the most recent\n\""n\"" number of days and divide by \""n.\"" For example, a 3-day MA is calculated in the following manner:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-185-187-simple-moving-average-crossover-by-peter-aan-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-185-187-simple-moving-average-crossover-by-peter-aan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-185-187-simple-moving-average-crossover-by-peter-aan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-orb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (188-189): Opening Range Breakout Part 7 by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Opening Range Breakout\nPart 7\nby Toby Crabel
Bear hook is a day in which the open is below the previous day's low and the close is above the\nprevious day's close with a narrow range relative to the previous day (Figure 1). As implied by the name,\nthere is a tendency for prices following a bear hook pattern to move to the downside.
Figure 2 tabulates how this downward tendency after the pattern manifests itself in different markets and\nwith a variety of opening range breakout (ORB) trades taken the day after the pattern appeared.
Figure 3 charts the bear hook patterns for December T-bonds. Notice the price action on the day\nfollowing the patterns and the market's tendency to place the open on the high of the day.
Very briefly, an ORB is a trade entered at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range (the\nrange of prices that occur in first 30 seconds to 5 minutes of trading). The predetermined amount, or\n\""stretch,\"" is the 10-day average of the differences between the open for each day and the closest extreme\nto the open on each day."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-188-189-opening-range-breakout-part-7-by-toby-crabel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-188-189-opening-range-breakout-part-7-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-188-189-opening-range-breakout-part-7-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-epoch-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (190-193): EPOCH by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""EPOCH\nby John Sweeney
Having recently gotten a handle on the natural order of prices (i.e., they are random, stationary and\ndependent), the next order of business has been to explore dependence. Naturally, traders are interested in\nthose forms of dependence which give us an edge in trading. Several forms come immediately to mind:\ncycles, trending, basing and congestion. Of these, MESA and EPOCH exploit the existence or\nnon-existence of short-term, cyclical components of a price series.\nMESA, an earlier product, will search through your prices trying to identify cyclical elements with\nfrequencies of 20 to 55 days. Given that result, it will then estimate and plot a two-week price forecast.
MESA was well received, but needs regular usage before an analyst can become familiar with its\nstrengths and weaknesses. Its value could not really be nailed down because trading signals were always\ngiven in hindsight, and changed as future prices changed the optimal cycle and its half-cycle average. To\nboot, you could not tell MESA which cycle to use in its forecast. The result was the program's output was\nmore art than quantitative assessment.
EPOCH overcomes these weaknesses. It allows you to specify any time period (or epoch) and it will\nevaluate any assumed cycle between 8 and 32 days in length. The program then creates a table showing\nthe number of trades, the profit and profit/trade for that length. The results may also be graphed for the\nscreen or printer, large or small."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-190-193-epoch-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-190-193-epoch-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-190-193-epoch-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c06-riding-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:6 (194-198): Riding the Beast by Jean Dilling"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Riding the Beast\nby Jean Dilling
I remember the first time I rode the \""Beast,\"" the largest, scariest roller coaster ride at King's Island\namusement park. When I got off, I swore that never would I ride again. A few hours later, I was back in\nline, ticket in hand, ready to challenge the beast one more time. How ironic that I should compare trading\ncommodities to riding the Beast.
July 18, 1988, Monday: A young broker named Randy called to tempt me into buying silver. I would\nhave usually cut a phone salesman off but he was very pleasant, more informative than pushy, and I\nfound myself very interested until I realized he was talking about commodity investments. I could not\neven consider using my secure CD's, mutual funds and bonds for a speculative venture, so I explained to\nRandy that my money was tied up and not easily liquidated.\nCompletely understanding, he offered to call back in a few months and I promised to keep him in mind.
To be honest, I was not the least bit interested in commodities and never had been. Even in my finance\nclasses my eyes fogged over when commodities came up. I skipped the next couple of classes so I\nwouldn't have to endure the boring \""farmer\"" talk.
With my incomplete knowledge I saw commodities at two ends of a very short scale. At one end was\nfarmers auctioning for a good price on their products and at the other were the millionaires and large\nspeculators who bought gold and foreign currency. As a self-employed, Midwest businesswoman, I knew\nmy place in the financial world. Mutual funds and CD's were the only way to go. Safe and secure, albeit\nslow and unexciting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-194-198-riding-the-beast-by-jean-dilling-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-194-198-riding-the-beast-by-jean-dilling-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-6-194-198-riding-the-beast-by-jean-dilling-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-pricepr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (201-202): Price projections on point and figure charts by Luis Ballesca Loyo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price projections on point and figure charts\nby Luis Ballesca Loyo
One of the great advantages of point and figure (P&F) charting is its well-defined features: price\nformations, buy and sell signals, trendlines and price projections.
The P&F method establishes a price objective that a security could reach when its price breaks (or\npenetrates) a formation. Two types of projections are possible: horizontal and vertical counting. These\ntechniques calculate a proxy for the price objective by applying the formulas in Figure 1.
Figure 2 shows a breakout to the upside of a bullish symmetrical triangle on an arithmetically scaled\nchart. From this, we can make the next price projection:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-201-202-price-projections-on-point-and-figure-charts-by-luis-ballesca-loyo-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-201-202-price-projections-on-point-and-figure-charts-by-luis-ballesca-loyo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-201-202-price-projections-on-point-and-figure-charts-by-luis-ballesca-loyo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-locatin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (203-207): Locating value with auction market data by Donald L. Jones"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Locating value with auction market data\nby Donald L. Jones
There are two fools in every market. One asks too little, one asks too much.
— Old Russian proverb
The search for value in markets is a never-ending quest, since value changes with underlying economic\nconditions. A fundamental approach to valuation, such as that of Graham & Dodd, (Security Analysis,\nfirst printed in 1934), looks to the long term and projects an intrinsic value from earnings growth,\nmanagement quality, business prospects and the like. Technical analysis uses the daily summary data\n(open, high, low, close, volume) to characterize market movement.
Recently, J. Peter Steidlmayer has proposed an auction market theory which evaluates the state of the\nmarket from the perspective of a single day to long term (Markets and Market Logic, Steidlmayer &\nKoy). Auction market analysis uses a new sort of technical data, one where the volume is identified with\neach price traded. Value, as defined within auction market theory, is market acceptance of price, signified\nby trading volume.
Higher volume price regions demonstrate a consensus of value by buyers and sellers. Auction market\ndata provides the mechanism to locate high-volume regions and thus, permits the location of value each\nday after the close."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-203-207-locating-value-with-auction-market-data-by-donald-l-jones-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-203-207-locating-value-with-auction-market-data-by-donald-l-jones-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-203-207-locating-value-with-auction-market-data-by-donald-l-jones-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-orb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (208-210): Opening Range Breakout Part 8 by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Opening Range Breakout\nPart 8\nby Toby Crabel
The bull hook pattern, as suggested by its name, is a bullish indication and, in most cases, will be\nfollowed by a price move to the upside on the day or days following the hook. However, as you will see\nfrom the tests I ran, this is not always the case.
A bull hook day (Figure 1) opens above the previous day's high and closes below the previous day's close\nwith a narrowing range. Tests of opening range breakout (ORB) trades taken the day following the bull\nhook pattern are shown in Figure 2.
An ORB trade is entered at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range (the range of\nprices that occur in first 30 seconds to 5 minutes of trading). The predetermined amount, or \""stretch,\"" is\nthe 10-day average of the differences between the open for each day and the closest extreme to the open\non each day. (See Stocks & Commodities, February and April 1989.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-208-210-opening-range-breakout-part-8-by-toby-crabel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-208-210-opening-range-breakout-part-8-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-208-210-opening-range-breakout-part-8-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-fed-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (211-213): Watch the Fed! by Arthur A. Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Watch the Fed!\nby Arthur A. Merrill
The actions of the Federal Reserve are vitally important to investors and speculators. When the Fed\ntightens the money supply, interest rates rise, bonds and stocks fall. The reverse occurs when the Fed\neases the supply of money.
Most of the federal policy decisions are made behind closed doors at meetings of the Federal Open\nMarket Committee (FOMC), held in Washington eight times a year. The committee uses weekly reserve\ntargets to determine strategies for the future.
\""Fed Watchers,\"" I'm sure, would like to bug the committee meetings. However, as second best, they\nwatch the actions of the account manager at the \""open market desk\"" in New York. This manager tries to\nimplement the planned strategy with \""open market operations\"" designed to neutralize seasonal and\nrandom credit changes and achieve the reserve targets established by the FOMC. He can ease the supply\nof money and the bank reserves by buying Treasury and agency securities in the open market and\ncrediting the reserves of the sellers. He can drain reserves and tighten money by selling securities in the\nopen market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-211-213-watch-the-fed-by-arthur-a-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-211-213-watch-the-fed-by-arthur-a-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-211-213-watch-the-fed-by-arthur-a-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-regress-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (214-216): Regressions in hard commodities by L. R. James"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Regressions in hard commodities\nby L. R. James
The possibilities for precious metals price rises are present, but so are the possibilities for their decline.\nThe bond market and the Federal Reserve give every indication of being intolerant of anything more than\nlow level inflation, raising interest rates in response. During the past few months, rates have moved\nfurther and further in the direction of an inverted yield curve. A few of the Commerce Department's\neconomic indicators also have suggested some slowdown in the economy. So far, in this business cycle,\nprecious metals have not kept up with stocks.
I use stepwise multiple regression to measure the relationship between different variables, like inflation\nand gold prices. The process determines a linear equation with which you can estimate the price of gold\nfor a given level of inflation. Given two stochastically dependent, random variables, stepwise multiple\nregression will predict the mean expectation of one variable relative to the other. (I don't recommend\nlearning regression analysis from a textbook. It would be better to take a course in it. Even easier would\nbe buying software to do the work for you. StatPackets [$25 from Walnuck Associates, (612) 866-9022]\nis a great package, dirt cheap and uses Lotus 1-2-3 or Symphony files.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-214-216-regressions-in-hard-commodities-by-l-r-james-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-214-216-regressions-in-hard-commodities-by-l-r-james-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-214-216-regressions-in-hard-commodities-by-l-r-james-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-syswrit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (217-219): System Writer Plus by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""System Writer Plus\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
When I read in a letter to the Stocks & Commodities editor that readers wanted to see a review of\nSystem Writer, I asked for the job. For traders such as myself, the product is a godsend. Omega Research\nrecently released System Writer Plus, a major upgrade to the original program, and this review evaluates\nthe new version.
The best description of System Writer Plus is that it facilitates signal and model development,\noptimization, historical testing and gives you trading signals on a daily or even intraday basis.
The usual application takes the following path: You use English-like statements to build your own entry and exit rules, including stops. You specify any variables you want the program to test incrementally (the\nprogram allows up to 10 per signal) and the range those variables can take. You may then store these\nsignals in the signal library."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-217-219-system-writer-plus-by-jim-summers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-217-219-system-writer-plus-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-217-219-system-writer-plus-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-phasesh-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (220-223): Phase shifts in the 40.68-month cycle by Gary Zin, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Phase shifts in the 40.68-month cycle\nby Gary Zin, Ph.D.
Phase shifts plague every cycle technician. Phase shifts, or apparent phase shifts, are often present\nwhen a high or low of a cycle is expected but doesn't occur. Sometimes, if neither a cycle high nor low\noccurs on its projected date, a cycle will shift 180 degrees to its subsequent anniversary date. Many times,\nthese phase shifts occur near major trend changes in the market.
By assuming that a change in market direction is probable near the date of a predicted high or low, other\ntrend-following indicators can be used to decide whether a high or low is really likely to occur.
Bullish and bearish cycles
Figure 1 shows a semi-logarithmic plot of monthly data for the S&P 500 from January 3, 1928 to March\n31, 1989. Gertrude Shirk, past research director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, has monitored\na regular 40.68-month cycle in the stock market and projected that an ideal low period for this cycle\nwould occur near March 1989. (See \""In search of the cause of cycles,\"" S&C, March 1987 and \""The\n40.68-month stock price cycle,\"" S&C, Ocotber 1988) The cycle labeled \""Bullish\"" in Figure 1 tracks this\nideal 40-68-month cycle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-220-223-phase-shifts-in-the-40-68-month-cycle-by-gary-zin-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-220-223-phase-shifts-in-the-40-68-month-cycle-by-gary-zin-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-220-223-phase-shifts-in-the-40-68-month-cycle-by-gary-zin-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-voltact-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (224-226): Volatility analysis and simulation used in tactical trading Part 2 by Peter Eliason"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volatility analysis and simulation used in tactical\ntrading\nPart 2\nby Peter Eliason
The tactical trading algorithm, as explained in the March 1989 issue of Stocks & Commodities, is made\nup of two components: the manipulation of a numerical series to determine the number of shares to buy\nor sell (normally a small portion of the shares owned), and a point spread that determines the price at\nwhich the buy or sell should take place.
Two limit orders, one above and one below the last transaction's price, await the price movement of the\nstock or commodity and the eventual filling of an order. With the order filled, the remaining limit order is\ncanceled and two new limit orders are developed. This process is repeated over and over until a cycle is\ncompleted.
Volatility
Each stock or commodity has a volatility, or trading range, over time. The measurement of volatility tells\nus what's hot and what's not.
Volatility is calculated as high less low divided by close over time. A high of 10, a low of 9 1/2, and a\nclose of 10 as reported by The Wall Street Journal would produce a 5% daily volatility. A high of 10, a\nlow of 9, and a close of 10 as reported by Barron's would produce a 10% weekly volatility."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-224-226-volatility-analysis-and-simulation-used-in-tactical-trading-part-2-by-peter-eliason-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-224-226-volatility-analysis-and-simulation-used-in-tactical-trading-part-2-by-peter-eliason-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-224-226-volatility-analysis-and-simulation-used-in-tactical-trading-part-2-by-peter-eliason-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-whatkwa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (227-229): What K-wave? by Jeff Walker"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What K-wave?\nby Jeff Walker
Cycles — in things as varied as locusts, sunspots and pig iron production — are an undeniable part of\nthe universe. The reality of Nicolai Kondratieff's 54-year cycle is rather less certain.
A cycle is a more-or-less regular fluctuation of a value from one extreme to another and at least partially\nback. In the longer run, the value may be trending higher, lower or not at all.
Most advocates of the Kondratieff wave (K-wave) believe that an economic cycle averaging 54 years in\nduration turned up around the time of the Great Depression. Most believe that it peaked in the early\n1970s and began a descent that will end with another serious depression in the 1990s. In this view, the\neconomic resurgence of the mid-1980s is an illusion typical of the next-to-last stage of the \""long wave.\""
And what is this economic cycle? Well, there is no single variable that it tracks, but whatever\ncombination it does track purports to mirror rising and falling general economic prosperity in the U.S.\nand perhaps other capitalist countries. Different K-wave theorists suggest different combinations."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-227-229-what-k-wave-by-jeff-walker-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-227-229-what-k-wave-by-jeff-walker-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-227-229-what-k-wave-by-jeff-walker-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-sidebart-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (230-231): SIDEBAR: True range"",""caption-linebreaks"":""True range
Formula for calculating true range, page 231."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-230-231-sidebar-true-range-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-230-231-sidebar-true-range-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-230-231-sidebar-true-range-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-volsyst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (230-232): Volatility system by Peter Aan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volatility system\nby Peter Aan
Rules: The volatility system uses a close-only reversing stop that is activated only on the close and\ntrails behind the most favorable close attained in the trade. Volatility determines how closely the stop will\ntrail the market. During volatile periods, the stop may lag considerably behind the market, and during\nquiet periods the stop will remain closer to recent market action.
To follow the system, you must first measure the volatility. Wilder expresses volatility as the average true\ndaily range over the last \""n\"" days. True range refers to the actual range (high-low) plus the gap, if any,\nbetween yesterday's close and today's high or low. The ranges for the last \""n\"" days are added together and\ndivided by \""n\"" to compute the volatility for the first day. For successive days, Wilder uses a shortcut\nmethod for smoothing the data. For example, if you are using a 10-day computation for determining the\nvolatility, take yesterday's average true range, multiply by nine and add today's true range and divide by\n10. The shortcut produces a psuedo moving average that is easier to calculate without a computer and\napproximates a 10-day simple moving average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-230-232-volatility-system-by-peter-aan-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-230-232-volatility-system-by-peter-aan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-230-232-volatility-system-by-peter-aan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-shooter-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (233-234): Option shooters vs. spreaders by Jerry Kopf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option shooters vs. spreaders\nby Jerry Kopf
Option market timers and option relationship traders occupy major places in the spectrum of call and\nput investors. Timers or \""shooters\"" go for the \""home run\"" by simply buying premium (i.e., going long a\nput or call). Relationship traders grind out small but consistent yardage by stacking probabilities in their\nfavor. Because they are skilled at spreading and know beforehand what an option's price \""should\"" be, that\nis, its theoretical value, they capitalize on price discrepancies.
Market timers make subjective decisions based on:
News — Monthly trade and employment figures, the Producer Price Index and other external market\ndata. A few years ago, when the M1 was in vogue, market timers keyed into Thursday afternoon's money\nsupply figures.
Opinions — From the forecasts of newsletter advisors to predictions of the \""elves\"" on television's Wall\nStreet Week.
Feelings — Intuition about whether the next 50-point Dow Jones Industrial Average move will be up or\ndown. Many market timers use charts or other technical indicators which \""tell\"" them future market\ndirection. Recognize that charts or waves are subject to the ability of the interpreter to read them\ncorrectly. In actuality, a subjective market call."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-233-234-option-shooters-vs-spreaders-by-jerry-kopf-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-233-234-option-shooters-vs-spreaders-by-jerry-kopf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-233-234-option-shooters-vs-spreaders-by-jerry-kopf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c07-prtechn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:7 (235-236): Technician 5.0 by Steve Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technician 5.0\nby Steve Notis
Once upon a time, computers were designed to make our lives easier. By helping us with our difficult\nand time-consuming tasks, computers were supposed to speed us through our work and allow us to get on\nto more pleasant things. Technical analysts, however, inspired by the added capabilities, have delved into\nmore arcane and complicated areas of research. There seems to be an escalating contest to see who can\ngather and manipulate the most data and who can build and optimize the most elaborate mathematical\nmodels.
I'm certainly as prone to this nonsense as anyone, maybe more so, and so I try not to get hooked on every\nnew technical analysis program that comes out. However, recently I've been working with one that not\nonly expands my analysis capabilities, but saves me time, too."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-235-236-technician-5-0-by-steve-notis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-235-236-technician-5-0-by-steve-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-7-235-236-technician-5-0-by-steve-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-morecon-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (239-240): A more conservative estimate of risk by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""A more conservative estimate of risk\nby Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Risk is, or at least should be, of interest to all investors. One of the traditional measures of risk is the\nstandard deviation of expected returns (that is, the spread of the expected return around the mean or\naverage expected return). I think that there may be a better, more accurate, measure of risk, assuming that\nwe want to define risk in terms of dispersion
First, we need to agree on a few definitions. The first is deviation:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-239-240-a-more-conservative-estimate-of-risk-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-239-240-a-more-conservative-estimate-of-risk-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-239-240-a-more-conservative-estimate-of-risk-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-tradabl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (241-242): Tradable price patterns by Kent Calhoun"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tradeable price patterns\nby Kent Calhoun
What if you knew tomorrow had an 85% probability of closing higher. Do you think it w w would be\npossible to find a way to make money? Such patterns do exist in the markets all the time, but go\nunnoticed because traders do not know how to find them. You can estimate the probabilities associated\nwith any particular pattern of daily closes. Use a computer with your current data or manually tabulate\nclosing prices from, say, The Wall Street Journal or Investor's Daily.
First, Monday's close is always assigned a value of X whether it is up or down from Friday's close. For\neach day that loses in the same direction as the Friday-to-Monday close, an X is used. For each close in\nthe opposite direction record an O. Thus, if Friday-to-Monday was up, Monday-to-Tuesday is up, and\nTuesday-to-Wednesday is down, your pattern will look like:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-241-242-tradable-price-patterns-by-kent-calhoun-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-241-242-tradable-price-patterns-by-kent-calhoun-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-241-242-tradable-price-patterns-by-kent-calhoun-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-rsi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (243-245): Relative Strength Index by Peter Aan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Relative Strength Index\nby Peter Aan
Rules and Formulas: The formula for computing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is well-known\nand computerized by dozens of commercial software packages.
Briefly, to compute a 14-day RSI, you must first collect 14 days of closing prices. Looking at the daily\nnet changes (DNC) from the previous close, add all of the up DNCs and divide by 14 to get the up\naverage. Total the down DNCs and divide by 14 to get the down average.
Divide the average up DNC by the average down DNC. Add 1 to this result and divide the new result into\n100. Subtract this figure from 100 to get the first RSI:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-243-245-relative-strength-index-by-peter-aan-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-243-245-relative-strength-index-by-peter-aan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-243-245-relative-strength-index-by-peter-aan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-fvi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (246-248): Financial Volume Index by Patrick Cifaldi"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Financial Volume Index\nby Patrick Cifaldi
In 1979, the analysis of trading volume was done mainly by hand. Joseph Granville was the foremost\nresearcher and his books and friendship gave me the tools to start my work. The basic work was tedious\nand long, and left little time for experimentation. With the advent of personal computers, I finally had the\ntime to research volume.
The foundation of volume analysis is that changes in the trend of volume precede changes in the trend in\nprice. One analogy is that if volume is the tides of the sea, and price is a sailing ship, the ship must wait\nfor the tides to start its journey.
Non-confirmation between price and a technical indicator is one of the basic methods of technical\nanalysis. For example, should price break out to new highs and the indicator fail to make a new high, a\nsell signal would be in order. Conversely, if price makes a new low without the indicator verifying that\nlow, a buy signal would be in order."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-246-248-financial-volume-index-by-patrick-cifaldi-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-246-248-financial-volume-index-by-patrick-cifaldi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-246-248-financial-volume-index-by-patrick-cifaldi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-mmi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (249-250): Using MMI to trade OEX by Dan Downing"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using MMI to trade OEX\nby Dan Downing
My firm uses an indicator derived from the Major Market Index (MMI) Stock Index Future to trade\noptions on Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index (OEX). The indicator is used to determine when the MMI\nfuture is in very oversold territory and subject to a short-term bounce.
Let me emphasize that the phrase \""short-term bounce\"" refers to two or three days, no longer. Our research\nhas shown that when the MMI future is very oversold, the equity markets are ready for a bounce. Instead\nof buying the future however, we purchase OEX calls to take advantage of the anticipated bounce.\nFutures make good indicators, but options make better short-term trading vehicles.
The first step in constructing the indicator is to record the closing prices for the nearby contract and for\nthe month after the nearby in the MMI future. Since the future expires every 30 days, you should record\nand figure the indicator for both months so you always have a usable indicator as soon as one month\nexpires. Although both indicators will give similar values, use the data from the near-term month until\nthat contract expires."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-249-250-using-mmi-to-trade-oex-by-dan-downing-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-249-250-using-mmi-to-trade-oex-by-dan-downing-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-249-250-using-mmi-to-trade-oex-by-dan-downing-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-mostact-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (251-253): Most active STOCKS by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Most active STOCKS\nby Arthur Merrill
The 15 most active issues on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are listed daily in The New York\nTimes and The Wall Street Journal, and weekly in Barron's. Are these statistics helpful?
The average price statistic can be used to measure the speculative tone of the market. A market\ndominated by low-priced stocks is speculative; one dominated by high-priced stocks is usually\nrespectable. Because the market becomes speculative at the top of a swing, low values of this indicator\nshould be found at market peaks.
I use the weekly statistic reported in Barron's and correct it for price level by dividing by the NYSE\ncomposite average. I then smooth the data by a 33% exponential moving average (approximately\nequivalent to a 5-week simple moving average).
How well has it performed? Figure 1 presents the past five years. Price gradually deterioration in 1985\nand early 1986, then maintained a steady, low level through 1986 before further deterioration. The lowest\npoints were April and August 1987, giving warning of speculation before the October 1987 crash. There\nare signs of speculation in 1988 and 1989, which are not encouraging."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-251-253-most-active-stocks-by-arthur-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-251-253-most-active-stocks-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-251-253-most-active-stocks-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-commtra-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (254-258): Trading commodity spreads mechanically by Louis P. Lukac & B. Wade Brorsen"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading commodity spreads mechanically\nby Louis P. Lukac & B. Wade Brorsen
Using a mechanical rule to trade a futures market is not new—countless mechanical methods exist\nwith the general purpose of creating a profit while eliminating the human factor from trading. One place\nwhere mechanical trading rules have received increased attention lately is in spread trading. Spread\ntrading involves taking a long position in one market and a corresponding short position in the same or\nrelated market, so the offsetting positions reduce the risk.
If a mechanical rule could be developed for spread trading, it could lead to a low-risk portfolio of spreads\nthat provides a superior alternative to a portfolio of outright futures positions.
There are several types of spreads, but most can be grouped into three general classes: intramarket,\nintercommodity and intermarket. An intramarket spread—a long position one month and a corresponding\nshort position in another month in the same commodity—is the most common. An example is long\nNovember soybeans/short January soybeans.
An intercommodity spread consists of a long position in one market with a corresponding short position\nin a related market such as long December soybeans/short December soymeal.
Finally, an intermarket spread takes a long position in one market on one exchange and a corresponding\nshort position in the same market but on another exchange—long March Chicago wheat/short March\nKansas City, for example."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-254-258-trading-commodity-spreads-mechanically-by-louis-p-lukac-b-wade-brorsen-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-254-258-trading-commodity-spreads-mechanically-by-louis-p-lukac-b-wade-brorsen-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-254-258-trading-commodity-spreads-mechanically-by-louis-p-lukac-b-wade-brorsen-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-dailyst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (259-262): Daily stock technician by Thomas K. Lloyd"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Daily stock technician\nby Thomas K. Lloyd
For several years, I marketed a proprietary chart service, called Flow of Capital, to major money\nmanagers in the country who generally had at least a billion dollars in equities under management.
Each chart plotted four/variables. The first line showed capital flowing into or out of the stock. Next,\nthere was a line showing the demand-supply fluctuations. Below that was a rate-of-change indicator.\nFinally, there was comparative relative strength.
These charts showed that relative strength is the basic raw data for every novice technician to learn and\ntrust. All the other enhancements are nice if you can afford to pay for them, but relative strength,\nassociated volume and absolute price change are more than enough to get you a long way into the\ntechnical analysis of equities.
Therefore, when Investor's Daily came on the scene and highlighted these very basic variables on their\ncharts, it became possible for even the novice to do his or her technical homework.
Not only do these charts reduce technical data to the basics, but they do the same for the key fundamental\ndata. In my years of working with portfolio managers, I knew not one who simply relied on technical data\nto make decisions — professionals look at both. What Investor's Daily has tried to show you, in summary\non one little chart, is the basics of both the technical and fundamental data on each stock."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-259-262-daily-stock-technician-by-thomas-k-lloyd-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-259-262-daily-stock-technician-by-thomas-k-lloyd-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-259-262-daily-stock-technician-by-thomas-k-lloyd-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-pointfi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (263-266): Point and figure analysis and projection Part 2 by Charles Idol"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Point and figure analysis and projection\nPart 2\nby Charles Idol
When you start point & figure chart (P&F) analysis, you should start with longer-term data and a l´3\nchart like Figure 1, the P&F chart for AT&T. (See \""Point & figure charts: An overview,\"" Stocks &\nCommodities, March 1989.) AT&T falls under the influence of the downtrend line formed by connecting\nthe tops of columns 11, 13 and 21. While this line holds, any short-term patterns indicating upward price\naction tend to be optimistic. Price action on the l´l chart (Figure 2) covers a slightly different time period.\n(To tie the charts together, note that at the beginning of 1986 — column 6 in Figure 1 — AT&T is rising\nfrom a bottom.)
The congestion zone between columns 7 and 15 of Figure 2, with an upward break at a price of $27 in\ncolumn 16, looks interesting. Experience says that the number of Xs and Os in a horizontal line\n(including the blank spaces between letters) is the number of points a stock, a group of stocks or market\naverage will advance from its deepest low or decline from its peak high. A count of nine across the $24 price line, therefore, gives a possible objective of $33, for a 22% gain if a commitment is made at $27. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-263-266-point-and-figure-analysis-and-projection-part-2-by-charles-idol-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-263-266-point-and-figure-analysis-and-projection-part-2-by-charles-idol-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-263-266-point-and-figure-analysis-and-projection-part-2-by-charles-idol-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-fibonac-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (267-268): Fibonacci profit objectives by Joe DiNapoli"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fibonacci profit objectives\nby Joe DiNapoli
Anyone who has been involved in the market for long has probably heard about Fibonacci numbers\nand ratios. We know they somehow mysteriously affect the market; however, most of us resist trying to\nunderstand how they work. I resisted because I thought that Fibonacci numbers, wave analysis and related\nsystems were very difficult concepts to learn.
Eventually, my desire to better understand the market and to win bigger overcame my prejudice. I quickly\ndiscovered that applying Fibonacci techniques to the market is not very difficult, and that a trader does\nnot need to be an Elliott Wave technician to apply Fibonacci concepts.
The Fibonacci number series (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc.) and the resulting Fibonacci ratios (0.146, 0.382,\n0.5, 0.618, 1.0, 1.382, 1.5, 1.618, 2.618, etc.) are the heart of Fibonacci analysis. My technique of using\nFibonacci expansion analysis uses only three ratios: 0.618, 1.0 and 1.618. With these three ratios, I\ncalculate logical profit objectives. I can ignore most of the other ratios, as well as the entire number series\nfrom which those ratios are derived."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-267-268-fibonacci-profit-objectives-by-joe-dinapoli-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-267-268-fibonacci-profit-objectives-by-joe-dinapoli-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-267-268-fibonacci-profit-objectives-by-joe-dinapoli-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-accgtsw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (269-272): Tracking profits: accounting software by Mike Takano"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tracking profits: accounting software\nby Mike Takano
Choosing the \""best\"" accounting software package is a difficult task. Given different circumstances and\nuser abilities, one package may suit your needs better than another. Nevertheless, I liked Monogram's\nBusiness Sense for small businesses, Layered's Insight for small to medium-sized businesses and Great\nPlains Accounting Series for large businesses.
If you're in the market for an accounting software package, decide how elaborate a system you need,\nincluding special features, prior to looking at any package. This may prevent you from paying a high\nprice for features you may not necessarily need or ever use. For example, if you are a large company and\nhave different departments for accounts receivable, accounts payable, etc., and definitely need multiple\nuser setups, then you would look at modular accounting software packages. If you want multi-user\ncapability instead of really needing it, the respective price range jumps from around $200 to more than\n$1,500 for the accounting software package. As far as accounting tasks go, each of the packages performs\nmore than adequately.
We recently reviewed five accounting software packages for the Apple Macintosh, some of which also\ncome in IBM versions. The goal of this review is to point out the differences in features among these\naccounting packages so you can decipher which one is right for your company.
Three of the packages, Monogram's Business Sense, Softsync's Accountant Inc and Bedford's Simply\nAccounting, are \""all-in-one\"" programs with integrated general ledger, accounts receivable, accounts\npayable and, in some cases, payroll and inventory routines."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-269-272-tracking-profits-accounting-software-by-mike-takano-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-269-272-tracking-profits-accounting-software-by-mike-takano-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-269-272-tracking-profits-accounting-software-by-mike-takano-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c08-thing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:8 (273-273): A thing of duty by Sara Nuss-Galles"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Duty or passion? In either direction there is poetry in work. By Sara Nuss-Galles; page 273."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-273-273-a-thing-of-duty-by-sara-nuss-galles-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-273-273-a-thing-of-duty-by-sara-nuss-galles-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-8-273-273-a-thing-of-duty-by-sara-nuss-galles-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-tbondeq-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (275-277): Trading T-bonds with Equivolume by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading T-bonds with Equivolume\nby Thom Hartle
A technician attempts to identify areas of price where supply or demand will affect the value of an\nitem. If your method correctly responds to or forecasts the demand or supply entering the market, you\nmay profit by the price adjustment of that item.\nA technique that helps me understand the subtle shifts in supply or demand (and consequently the change\nin price) is Equivolume Charting developed by Richard W. Arms, Jr. Equivolume Charting lets me\nvisually interpret the relationship of volume to price movement in a way that traditional bar charts were\nnever designed to match.
The June T-bond futures chart shown in Figure 1 is not the easiest way for me to gauge the amount of\nvolume traded in relation to the price movement. On the other hand, the equivalent Equivolume Chart\n(Figures 2 & 3) combines the daily volume with the price range for the day."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-275-277-trading-t-bonds-with-equivolume-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-275-277-trading-t-bonds-with-equivolume-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-275-277-trading-t-bonds-with-equivolume-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-ratioac-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (278-281): Ratio accumulators by William Mason"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Ratio accumulators\nby William Mason
Have you ever noticed how strong market moves are reported in terms of ratios? \""It was a 3-to-1 up\nday on advance to decline\"" or \""It was a 10-to-1 down day on volume.\"" Ratios inherently give the relative\nrelation of one variable to another. In other words, an advance/decline of 3-to-1 means there were 200%\nmore advancing issues than declining issues.
It struck me as odd that I could not find a true indicator based on a ratio. You may be thinking, \""What\nabout the ARMS Index (TRIN) or the Relative Strength Index (RSI)?\"" They're both ratios aren't they?\""\nThe ARMS Index is based on a ratio (see \""Volume indices\"" in this issue), but RSI is an oscillator.
What I wanted was an algebraic accumulation of net changes. The popular Advance-Decline Line has\nbeen erroneously called a \""ratio index\"" and is really just the difference between the variables. A ratio is\none variable divided by another, Y/X, for example. If Y and X have the same ranges, then the data will\noscillate around the value of 1.0. Depending on the variables, you can define values above 1.0 as bearish\nand below 1.0 as bullish, as is done with the ARMS Index:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-278-281-ratio-accumulators-by-william-mason-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-278-281-ratio-accumulators-by-william-mason-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-278-281-ratio-accumulators-by-william-mason-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-sidebn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (278-281): SIDEBAR: Normalization"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Normalization
When comparing indicators, it helps to \""normalize\"" the data first. This adjusts the values in both series to\nvalues between zero and 100 and shows the relative movement between the two. As an example, I've\nused advance/decline statistics."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-278-281-sidebar-normalization-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-278-281-sidebar-normalization-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-278-281-sidebar-normalization-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-demando-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (282-285): Demand Oscillator momentum by Thomas Aspray"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Demand Oscillator momentum\nby Thomas Aspray
The Demand Index developed by James Sibbett and its counterpart, the Demand Oscillator, are quite\nuseful in identifying accumulation or distribution in both stocks and commodities. (See \""Fine-tuning the\nDemand Index,\"" Stocks & Commodities, June 1986.)
The Demand Index is a combination of price and volume, calculated as buying pressure (BP) and selling\npressure (SP). I feel the Demand Oscillator makes signals from the Demand Index easier to interpret and\nidentifies false index signals. To plot the Demand Oscillator, first calculate Buying Pressure (BP) and\nSelling Pressure (SP):
...
Though the Demand Oscillator generally gives good clean signals, it often lags somewhat, especially on\nweekly data, where it often generates signals which stay in force four to six months. Though it is quite\ngood on the buy side, it is often late on the sell side.
To help offset this, I developed the Demand Oscillator Momentum (DOM) and found, preliminarily, that\nthe 5- and 10-period mometums seem to work the best. As with most indicators I use, DOM gives signals\nin several ways:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-282-285-demand-oscillator-momentum-by-thomas-aspray-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-282-285-demand-oscillator-momentum-by-thomas-aspray-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-282-285-demand-oscillator-momentum-by-thomas-aspray-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-scaledo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (286-287): Scale-down buying and scale-up selling by Jerry Kopf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Scale-down buying and scale-up selling\nby Jerry Kopf
Professional traders, like the average retail speculator, are often right and often early. Good option\ntraders promptly jump on a developing trend. But the cost of buying a wasting asset too early saddles the\nbuyer with a temporary loss. Later, when the forecast proves correct and the calls climb sharply, the\nbenefit of scaling down becomes evident.
Of course, many traders will abide by the maxim: Never average a loss. For market makers, that may be a\ngood rule. In a bind they can hedge calls or puts with other options. The average retail customers, though,\nare market timers. Their initial buy price depends on what point in the intraday trading range they got\nfilled. Most often, they have paid more than necessary and chased the price of a call or put. For these\ncustomers, averaging down, just once — with a stop below — has some real tactical benefits."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-286-287-scale-down-buying-and-scale-up-selling-by-jerry-kopf-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-286-287-scale-down-buying-and-scale-up-selling-by-jerry-kopf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-286-287-scale-down-buying-and-scale-up-selling-by-jerry-kopf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-ppstud-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (288-291): Price pattern studies Part 1 by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price pattern studies\nPart 1\nby Toby Crabel
Do prices tend to move consistently in one direction from open to close, given the previous day's price\npattern, and do these patterns of intraday bias lend themselves to profitable trading systems?
To answer these questions, I have tested all possible two-, three-, four- and five-day open-to-close\npatterns for the T-bond futures market from 1978 to 1987. My intention is to provide objective statistical\ndata that can be used as a reference in trading.
The price patterns in Figure 1 are referred to as\n\""systems\"" because the custom software I used is\nsystem-oriented. The \""+\"" sign in the \""Pattern\"" column indicates an up close relative to the previous day's\nclose; the \""-\"" sign represents a down close. The exception is the last \""+\"" or \""-\"" sign in the sequence which\nrepresents the opening of that day and the point of entry for the trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-288-291-price-pattern-studies-part-1-by-toby-crabel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-288-291-price-pattern-studies-part-1-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-288-291-price-pattern-studies-part-1-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-mutfpf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (292-294): Mutual fund point & figure by Charles Idol"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Mutual fund point & figure\nby Charles Idol
The idea of applying point and figure (P&F) chart analysis to mutual funds causes some conceptual\ndistress to P&F purists. P&F has no theory, but the basic concept says that the chart patterns are caused\nby the effect of supply and demand on the price of an equity. When you speak of mutual funds, you deal\nin a conglomeration of equities and, to make things worse, a conglomeration that changes as the fund\nmanager adjusts the composition of the portfolio.
\""So, you see,\"" say the purists, \""you don't even know what stocks you are dealing with from day to day.\nHow can you expect any coherent price behavior under those circumstances? The market doesn't set the\nprice of the fund; it sets price of the varying fund components .\""
\""Prattle,\"" I retort. People watch the prices and yields of mutuals just like anything else. A fund turns out\nto be just one more equity in the market. To quell any argument, let's just say we are dealing in\n\""meta-P&F,\"" or P&F once removed, when we address mutual funds."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-292-294-mutual-fund-point-figure-by-charles-idol-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-292-294-mutual-fund-point-figure-by-charles-idol-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-292-294-mutual-fund-point-figure-by-charles-idol-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-channel-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (295-297): Channel breakout by Peter Aan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Channel breakout\nby Peter Aan
Rules and Formulas: Channel systems use the highest and lowest prices in a series. Many possible\ntrading variations can be employed and the one I tested involves finding the highest high and lowest low\nfor the most recent n days. For instance, if you are using an 8-day channel you will examine the highs and\nlows for the most recent eight trading days to find the highest high and the lowest low, which are the\nreversal points. Buy/sell signals for an 8-day channel reversal are shown in Figure 1.
This test entailed two separate computer runs . One required the market only touch the channel high or\nlow on an intraday basis to reverse its position. The other run required a close above or below the channel\nhigh or low to signal the reversal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-295-297-channel-breakout-by-peter-aan-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-295-297-channel-breakout-by-peter-aan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-295-297-channel-breakout-by-peter-aan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-mcclell-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (298-300): The McClellan Oscillator by Richard Mogey"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The McClellan Oscillator\nby Richard Mogey
The earliest chartists used price data to evaluate markets and found that market prices continually\nmove from overbought to oversold and back again as if they were oscillating about an invisible, neutral\nline. The need to learn when the market was overbought or oversold led analysts to search for ways other\nthan price to track the market. This led, in time, to the tracking of advances and declines. If a stock was\nhigher at the close than the previous day, it was said to advance. If it was lower, it was said to decline.
It became obvious, however, that simply charting the total of advances or declines didn't bring the hoped\nfor results . The logical extension of this was the Advance-Decline Line, which is the sum of each day's\nadvances minus declines. This was helpful, but still it didn't address the need to understand the\noverbought-oversold oscillation of the market. Out of this need to understand, the McClellan Oscillator\nwas born.
The McClellan Oscillator uses, as its raw data, the daily advances minus declines of the New York Stock\nExchange. To this is applied a 10% and a 5% trend value — equivalent, respectively, to a 20-day and a\n40-day weighted moving average — because these trend values reflect the two most dominant\nshort-to-intermediate cycle lengths. The McClellan Oscillator is then the faster moving 10% trend value\nminus the slower 5% trend value."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-298-300-the-mcclellan-oscillator-by-richard-mogey-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-298-300-the-mcclellan-oscillator-by-richard-mogey-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-298-300-the-mcclellan-oscillator-by-richard-mogey-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-volindi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (301-303): Volume indices by Arthur Merrill"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume indices\nby Arthur Merrill
The ARMS Index, in the years since Richard Arms Jr. originated and described it in the August 7,\n1967 issue of Barron's, has been called MKDS by Bunker Ramo, STKS by ADP, TRIN by Quotron and\nthe Short Term Trading Index. Market technicians, however, recommend the name ARMS Index.
The index has a simple formula:
...
If declining stocks are more active than advancing stocks, the index will be high and the indication\nbearish (Figure 1). If advancing stocks are showing the most volume, the index will be low and N the\nindications bullish.
However, analyst John McGinley, editor of Technical Trends, has an interesting angle. When the index reaches excessive values, he uses it as a reverse indicator because it couldn't go much further."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-301-303-volume-indices-by-arthur-merrill-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-301-303-volume-indices-by-arthur-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-301-303-volume-indices-by-arthur-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-comsprd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (304-306): Computer spread analysis by Jim Summers, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Computer spread analysis\nby Jim Summers, Ph.D.
Many traders shy away from spread trading owing to the extra difficulties of calculating the spread\nand the analysis of the spread in both its legs. Data and software now available for IBM-PCs and clones\ncan automate this analysis to a considerable degree.
To analyze spreads I use Lotus 1-2-3, a charting program such as MetaStock Professional or Market\nMaker, System Writer Plus and contract-specific data from Technical Tools.
One excellent source of information on the subject of spreads is the series of articles by Frank Taucher in\nStocks & Commodities (see Stocks & Commodities, Volume 5: Trading Strategies, page 269). Through\nhis monthly spread analysis service, Taucher puts out a list of about 100 spreads with at least a 75%\nsuccess rate over a period of five to 20 years.
My usual routine is to first examine the wealth of historical information Taucher provides for the 100 or\nso spreads he identifies each month. This historical information includes margin, stop-loss levels, percent\nof years profitable, the average drawdown, the worst loss (if any) and the average profit."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-304-306-computer-spread-analysis-by-jim-summers-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-304-306-computer-spread-analysis-by-jim-summers-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-304-306-computer-spread-analysis-by-jim-summers-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-leading-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (307-309): Leading indicators with momentum by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Leading indicators with momentum\nby John Ehlers
Newcomers to technical trading are often confused by terminology. Oscillators don't oscillate and\nstochastics have nothing to do with random variables. Neither does momentum describe the force\nrequired to bring a moving body to rest. In the simplest case, momentum is just the difference between\ntwo time-related variables. I have found that, when combined with moving averages, momentum can\nproduce some useful indicators.
Because momentum measures the difference of two elements in time, we can consider it a measure of the\nrate of change. More specifically, momentum can be considered the I equivalent of the derivative of a\ncontinuous function, the opposite of the integral in calculus. From this we can draw some interesting\ngeneral conclusions about the properties of momentum, two of which hold the most interest to traders.
The first momentum property is that it detrends the time function. By taking the difference of day-to-day\nvariations, the slower variations of the trend are greatly reduced relative to the shorter variations. As a\nresult, trend is \""filtered\"" out, leaving short-term tactical trading opportunities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-307-309-leading-indicators-with-momentum-by-john-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-307-309-leading-indicators-with-momentum-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-307-309-leading-indicators-with-momentum-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-masterc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (310-314): Master Chartist by Steve Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Master Chartist\nby Steve Notis
Trading financial instruments is arguably the purest way on earth to make money. There is a certain\nZen to an occupation which requires you to render no service and produce no product and yet, by simply\ngathering information and making decisions, allows you to profit.
Of course, the rub is that to be successful you must be able to collect that information and interpret it\nbetter than the next guy. The way in which you receive your data must be comfortable and easy to work\nwith. It should suit your personal style and be appropriate to the way you trade. It should help you\norganize, filter and otherwise cope with the overwhelming amount of input that bombards you.
Roberts-Slade, Inc. produces Master Chartist, a sophisticated real-time charting and technical analysis\npackage which uses several popular quote services: Bonneville Telecommunications, CQI/Comstock and\nReuters."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-310-314-master-chartist-by-steve-notis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-310-314-master-chartist-by-steve-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-310-314-master-chartist-by-steve-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v07-c09-comtrac-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-7-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.7:9 (315-320): CompuTrac makes technical analysis a SNAP! by Steve Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CompuTrac makes technical analysis a SNAP!\nby Steve Notis
Which is the best technical analysis software package you can buy? A few years ago the technical\nstaff at Smith-Barney did a thorough survey for a feature in PC Magazine. The editors' choices were:\nCompuTrac, MetaStock and The Technician. But things can change quickly in the competitive computer\nsoftware industry: new players arrive and old leaders must continue to vie for the top shot.
CompuTrac won top honors in the survey, but its $1,900 price tag has kept it mainly in the hands of\nprofessionals and seriously committed private traders. MetaStock, by Equis International, came on the\nscene and offered better graphics at a much lower price, but CompuTrac's higher order analytics, such as\nadvanced user studies and profitability testing, are not equaled in MetaStock.
The Technician (also by Equis) is an excellent program which is uniquely specialized for timing the\ngeneral stock market. It occupies its own niche and it complements, rather than competes with, other\nprograms."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-315-320-computrac-makes-technical-analysis-a-snap-by-steve-notis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-315-320-computrac-makes-technical-analysis-a-snap-by-steve-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-7-9-315-320-computrac-makes-technical-analysis-a-snap-by-steve-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-putcall-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (14-16): Put-call sentiment indicator by Robert R. Prechter and David A. Allman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Put-call sentiment indicator\nby Robert R. Prechter and David A. Allman
Put/call ratios based on volume and dollar value have been widely used by technicians (see \""Option\npremiums,\"" Stocks & Commodities, December 1989). A third approach has been substantially\noverlooked. Since the Standard & Poor's 100-Stock Index (OEX) was introduced in March 1983 for the\npurpose of trading options on a market index, we have kept a ratio of the open interest on OEX puts vs.\ncalls. We have found that a 10-day moving average of that ratio appears to be a substantive market\nindicator. It produces less erratic behavior than other types of put/call ratios, making it valuable in\nassessing the intermediate-term, as opposed to the short-term, outlook.
Briefly stated, investors are more willing to write (create and sell) call contracts when their outlook is\nbearish. Conversely, they sell put contracts when they feel bullish. Data since 1983 indicate that this OEX\nput/call open interest ratio appears to define extremes in aggregate investor sentiment. A 10-day reading\nnear a 2:1 ratio in either direction is rare and has coincided with important turning points in the market.\nSuch ratios have tended to occur in the weeks of option expiration, as writers on the wrong side of the\nmarket apparently delay covering until the last week, while simultaneously choosing not to write options\nfor later expiration.
With regard to bottoms, there have been only three instances over the past six years when the 10-day ratio\nhas dropped below 0.50 (Figure 1). The first such extreme was 0.42 in February 1984. Stocks underwent\nanother five months of base building before ultimately bottoming just 5% lower. The next extreme was a\nreading of 0.43 in December 1984, as the secondary stock indices tested their summer lows. In that case,\nthere was no lag time, as the market jumped 12% to new all-time highs over the next two months. More\nsignificantly, the two extremes in the 10-day ratio that year marked a severely negative sentiment from\nwhich prices increased an additional 130% during the next 2-1/2 years."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-14-16-put-call-sentiment-indicator-by-robert-r-prechter-and-david-a-allman-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-14-16-put-call-sentiment-indicator-by-robert-r-prechter-and-david-a-allman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-14-16-put-call-sentiment-indicator-by-robert-r-prechter-and-david-a-allman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-tradvol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (17-20): Trading volatility by Andrew Sterge"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading volatility by Andrew Sterge
In the winter and spring of 1989, I made a series of Eurodollar options trades which show the logic of \""trading volatility.\"" This sort of trading is the bread and butter of many institutional traders, that is to say, large, well-financed traders. Understanding what such traders do is vital to an independent trader. One of the first things to understand about volatility is that it does not exhibit long trends like some common stocks but is more cyclical (or \""mean reverting\"") in nature. Thus, extremes in volatility are more likely opportunities to fade the market's volatility than chances to go with the breakout.
Such an opportunity to fade volatility occurred with Eurodollar options in early February 1989 when the\nimplied volatility of these options was trading at extremely low levels between 14% and 15% in the very\nleft tail of the frequency distribution for Eurodollar volatility as shown in Figure 1. Being at such extreme lows alerts the volatility trader for a possible trade on the long side, that is, to take advantage of volatility rising. The trick is to time the trade to take advantage of some event that leads to higher volatility. Otherwise, you suffer eroding premium in an inactive market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-17-20-trading-volatility-by-andrew-sterge-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-17-20-trading-volatility-by-andrew-sterge-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-17-20-trading-volatility-by-andrew-sterge-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-fundman-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (21-23): Fund managers' performance by Arthur Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fund managers' performance\nby Arthur Merrill, C.M.T.
Should we monitor the actions of mutual fund managers? They are paid a salary to do a better job of\ninvesting than the common man. While some managers may not live up to expectations, on the average,\nthey should be labeled \""smart money.\""
The Investment Company Institute, which represents more than 90% of the funds, reports monthly. You\ncan subscribe to their detailed report or note the \""Mutual fund monthly indicators\"" summary in Barron's\nIndex of Statistics. The indicators I will discuss in this article are derived from seven figures:
1.Purchases of common stocks
2.Sales of common stocks
3.Other purchases
4.Other sales
5.Cash and short-term (S/T) holdings
6.Assets of stock funds
7.Assets of bond and income funds"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-21-23-fund-managers-performance-by-arthur-merrill-c-m-t-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-21-23-fund-managers-performance-by-arthur-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-21-23-fund-managers-performance-by-arthur-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-ellwav-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (24-28): Elliott Wave dilemma: Bull or bear market? by C. R. MacDowell"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Elliott Wave dilemma: Bull or bear market? by C. R. MacDowell
The Elliott Wave Theory, while complex and subject to individual interpretation, offers a powerful means of putting the overall market developments into reasonable perspective and provides some guidance for what to expect of the future direction of the market as well as the possible extent of its moves. In mid-October 1989, the stock market was at a critical juncture but subject to two contrary wave theory interpretations.
Elliott Wave Theory is a pattern-recognition technique published by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1939 which holds that the stock market follows a rhythm or pattern of five waves up and three waves down to form a complete cycle of eight waves, and that each of these cycles constitutes one wave in a larger cycle in an ongoing expansion of five waves up and three waves down. The three waves down are referred to as a \""correction\"" of the preceding five waves up.
A bear market recovery?
In October 1987, many Elliott wave followers viewed the almost climactic runup in prices and subsequent crash as the precursor for a major correction. The question was which wave of cycle Wave V had been completed — Primary Wave 5 or only Intermediate Wave 3 of Primary Wave 5. After the October 1987 market crash, the generally accepted Elliott wave interpretation of the period from the Cycle Wave IV low in August 1982 to the crash was that Cycle Wave V — the culmination of an uptrend from the 1932 low — had ended at the market top on August 25,1987. The consequence was we had entered the first stages of a long-term and major bear market. The severity of the 1987 crash, both in terms of price and time, made this the most logical assessment and somewhat parallel to the start of the 1929-to-1932 bear market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-24-28-elliott-wave-dilemma-bull-or-bear-market-by-c-r-macdowell-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-24-28-elliott-wave-dilemma-bull-or-bear-market-by-c-r-macdowell-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-24-28-elliott-wave-dilemma-bull-or-bear-market-by-c-r-macdowell-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-sidebs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (29-30): SIDEBAR: Stochastic oscillator by Mike Takano"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stochastic oscillator\nby Mike Takano
The stochastic oscillator is used to indicate overbought or oversold conditions on a scale of zero to 100%.
The stochastic process is based on the observation that as price decreases, the daily closes tend to\naccumulate nearer the extreme lows of the daily range Likewise, as price increases, the daily closes tend\nto accumulate closer to the extreme highs of the daily range. This concept also holds for monthly, weekly\nor even intraday time frames.
Stochastics produces two oscillating lines—%K and %D. The %K line, also referred to as the stochastic\n\""raw value,\"" is based on the lowest low and highest high occurring during a selected time period, n,\nwhich is usually 5:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-29-30-sidebar-stochastic-oscillator-by-mike-takano-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-29-30-sidebar-stochastic-oscillator-by-mike-takano-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-29-30-sidebar-stochastic-oscillator-by-mike-takano-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-stoclong-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (29-30): Stochastics and long-term trends by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stochastics and long-term trends\nby Thom Hartle
The price of the bond futures market reacts to changing fundamentals that are global in nature and very\ncomplicated—Foreign Central banks' policy on the exchange rate for the dollar, the rate of money supply\ngrowth in the United States, the employment situation, our fiscal policy, growth in the import and export\nsector, the Japanese stock market, the price of oil, international political tensions, just to name a few of\nthe fundamentals ! Day in and day out the marketplace analyzes, discusses, researches and acts on these\nfundamentals and more.
While there appears to be an overwhelming source of information to dissect, it seems that the large\neconomic forces affecting the price of bonds actually produces very long trends.
One of the indicators that I use to indicate the direction of long-term trends (lasting anywhere from one to\nthree years) and price areas for possible reversals is the stochastics oscillator originated by George Lane.\nAn oscillator typically warns that a trend reversal is developing as price reaches an extreme level. Lane's\nstochastics oscillator analyzes the relationship between daily closes and their proximity to the high or low\nfor the day.
The positive rising price trend signal occurs when the %K crosses the %D line to the plus side. (See\nrelated article, \""Stochastics oscillator,\"" on the following page.) A negative, falling price trend exists if the\n%K is below the %D line. Overbought is the +80 level while oversold is the +20 level (Figure 1 )."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-29-30-stochastics-and-long-term-trends-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-29-30-stochastics-and-long-term-trends-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-29-30-stochastics-and-long-term-trends-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-stoctim-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (31-32): Stock timing to the discount rates by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock timing to the discount rates by Jay Kaeppel
The course and direction of interest rates have long had a direct and often profound effect on the course of stock prices. When interest rates are rising, investors tend to turn away from the stock market and lean\nmore towards interest-bearing investments, such as Certificates of Deposits and Treasury bills. However, when interest rates begin to decline, investors look to the stock market as an avenue to increase their returns, as the returns on their interest-bearing investments decline. One of the most useful interest rate measures is the Federal Reserve Board's (the Fed) discount rate.
The discount is the rate that member banks pay to borrow money from the Fed. It is an important rate because it is directly controlled by the Fed, and the Fed has a great deal of influence over the direction of interest rates, inflation and, therefore, the economy. In most cases, the discount rate is not a leading indicator. However, it is extremely useful for identifying the underlying tone of the stock market.
Generally, a declining trend in the discount rate is much more bullish for stocks than a rising trend in the discount rate is bearish for stocks. When the discount rate is declining, stock prices invariably go up. When the discount rate is rising, stock prices do not always go down, but the last two major bear markets (1969-70 and 1973-74), were both preceded by a hike in the discount rate, as was the 1987 crash."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-31-32-stock-timing-to-the-discount-rates-by-jay-kaeppel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-31-32-stock-timing-to-the-discount-rates-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-31-32-stock-timing-to-the-discount-rates-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-succtr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (33-36): Successfully trading currency options by Thomas J. Dorsey"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Successfully trading currency options by Thomas J. Dorsey
Many people equate the options market with gambling in a Las Vegas casino. Many investors do experience losses trading options, but their losses are usually due to both an abuse of leverage and little understanding of the role that the underlying currency plays in the equation. To make money trading currency options, you first must be successful trading the underlying currency. Reversing this order will surely lead to financial disaster.
Comparing currency trading to gambling in Las Vegas is the same as comparing speculation to gambling. Although both carry a degree of risk, speculating is generally perceived as a calculated risk while gambling is a game of chance. A speculator in the options market has the ability to adjust the risk-reward characteristics of a trade. A gambler simply accepts the odds attached to a game of chance. The first concept an option trader must understand is probability. Webster defines mathematic probability as \""a number expressing the likelihood of occurrences of a specific event, such as the ratio of the number of experimental results that would produce the event to the total number of experimental results considered possible.\"" The probability of getting heads or tails when flipping a coin is 50-50. Each event is independent of the other.
The probabilities of trading in currencies are not as black and white as flipping a coin or rolling dice. There are many more variables that must be considered, but in the end it is the irrefutable law of supply and demand that causes a currency to move. If demand for a particular currency increases while supply remains the same, the currency price must rise. If supply increases while demand remains the same, the currency price must go down. If demand and supply are even, the currency will remain unchanged."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-33-36-successfully-trading-currency-options-by-thomas-j-dorsey-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-33-36-successfully-trading-currency-options-by-thomas-j-dorsey-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-33-36-successfully-trading-currency-options-by-thomas-j-dorsey-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-tradfiv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (37-39): Trading five-wave reversals by Dan Akin Dimock"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading five-wave reversals by Dan Akin Dimock
Where is the best place to enter a trading or longer-term investment position within the entire five waves up/three waves down cycle of any market? How is the starting point recognized before the action begins? The Elliott Wave Theory may provide the answers.
Let's not kid ourselves. Trading is extremely risky. What method, other than Elliott Wave, provides error recognition by allowing the trader to know in advance what sequential events must follow for the trade to be successful and, by their failure to occur, alerts the trader to exit the trade before much, if any, damage is done?
Elliott Wave also makes it possible to differentiate between main trend and countertrend (bear) markets. This is because g five-wave advances will occur in the direction of the main trend and these, when concluded, are always opposed by three countertrend waves of like degree (the 5/3 pattern). Therefore, movements limited to three waves occur only within the corrective phase of a market.
The concluding 5/3 wave — wave C in Elliott Wave nomenclature — signifies that a new primary trend or, at minimum, a good opportunity is next. One tip-off that this third wave is concluding is its distinctive \""signature\"" — it subdivides into five waves within the zigzag or flat corrective patterns. When wave C occurs within the triangle corrective pattern, however, it\nsubdivides into three waves."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-37-39-trading-five-wave-reversals-by-dan-akin-dimock-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-37-39-trading-five-wave-reversals-by-dan-akin-dimock-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-37-39-trading-five-wave-reversals-by-dan-akin-dimock-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-incrobv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (40-43): Increasing OBV reliability with stock index futures by Gerald Appel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Increasing OBV reliability with stock index\nfutures\nby Gerald Appel
Traders have used volume pattern recognition techniques in an attempt to forecast price movement\nprobably for as long as records regarding trading volume have been maintained.
As a general rule, a market is considered bullish when it rises on increasing volume and declines on\ndecreasing volume, and bearish when it advances on lighter volume and declines on heavier volume.\nUnfortunately, such rules are somewhat simplistic and subject to many exceptions. For example, a\nsituation where volume is diminishing as markets are advancing is not necessarily followed immediately\nby downside reversal, although diminishing volume during advances does often provide notice of\ndiminishing buying pressure — a reliable enough concept, if not exactly precise in its timing and\napplication.
Many attempts have been made over the years to codify trading rules based on volume, though few have\nbeen successful. One of the best known is Joseph E. Granville's on-balance volume (OBV) technique."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-40-43-increasing-obv-reliability-with-stock-index-futures-by-gerald-appel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-40-43-increasing-obv-reliability-with-stock-index-futures-by-gerald-appel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-40-43-increasing-obv-reliability-with-stock-index-futures-by-gerald-appel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-unchang-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (44-44): Unchanged stocks by Charles A. Jaffe"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Unchanged stocks by Charles A. Jaffe
Investors and the media focus on the winners and losers in the stock market. Issues that stand still are not only boring, but their inactivity is seldom a signal for anything. Or is it? Last summer, Anthony W. Tabell of the Princeton, New Jersey-based Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc. was struck by the fact that, on many days, more than 500 issues on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) were closing unchanged. Intrigued by the round number 500 and the fact that he couldn't remember, even from his younger days, such a high percentage of stocks not moving, Tabell decided to look at the history of standstills. For the purpose of historical comparison, Tabell translated 500 into 25.5% of the issues traded.
Tabell's research reaped some intriguing discoveries. The reason he couldn't remember 25.5% of the Big Board closing unchanged even during his youth, is that it never happened. Between 1958 and 1974, there was not a single day in which 25.5% of NYSE stocks were unchanged. But over history, a trading pattern with unusually high percentages of unchanged stocks emerge. Between 1926 and August 31, 1989 when Tabell released his information, 2,832 of the 17,150 trading days had seen 25.5% of the issues stand still. More than three-quarters of those incidents occurred in \""clusters\"" lasting 100 days or more. Tabell defined a cluster as a period in which no two instances are separated by 25 days."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-44-44-unchanged-stocks-by-charles-a-jaffe-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-44-44-unchanged-stocks-by-charles-a-jaffe-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-44-44-unchanged-stocks-by-charles-a-jaffe-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c01-enhanc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:1 (9-13): Enhancing index stock portfolios with futures by Donald L. Jones and Timothy L. Walsh"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Enhancing index stock portfolios with futures\nby Donald L. Jones and Timothy L. Walsh
The benefits of diversification are well known: most investment managers diversify by including bonds\nand cash in a stock portfolio already diversified across many industry groups. Less well known is the fact\nthat managed commodity futures portfolios are an attractive diversification candidate that can lead to a\ndisproportionately large increase in return while simultaneously reducing risk. Thus, stock portfolio\nmanagers, regardless of their degree of risk-aversion, should consider futures to improve the return-risk\ntradeoff of their portfolios.
Researchers and professor John Lintner combined the results of 15 futures managers from mid-1979\nthrough 1982 and demonstrated that futures returns and volatilities were greater than their stock\ncounter-parts. Our research using one managers' returns for 1974 through mid-1985 demonstrated that\nadding 10% futures to and index stock portfolio (with an imputed 4% annual dividend), would have\ndoubled the average net return while reducing the worst-year loss by 300% (from –25.7% in 1974 to\n–7.2% in 1981). Extending our database through March 1989, we can now examine the effect of futures\non an index portfolio for returns broken down annually, quarterly and monthly. These annual returns\nprovide an overview that not only extends, but confirms the earlier results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-9-13-enhancing-index-stock-portfolios-with-futures-by-donald-l-jones-and-timothy-l-walsh-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-9-13-enhancing-index-stock-portfolios-with-futures-by-donald-l-jones-and-timothy-l-walsh-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-1-9-13-enhancing-index-stock-portfolios-with-futures-by-donald-l-jones-and-timothy-l-walsh-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-revers-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (371-376): Reversal Patterns by Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Reversal Patterns by Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle
Market prices, as one well-worn adage points out, are trapped in a two-dimensional world with little directional leeway. They are either climbing up, dropping down or moving sideways. And, the fact is, there is no refuting this simplistic truth.
Prices distill the complex interplay of supply and demand, the collective fear and bravado of sellers and buyers, and lay it out as up, down or sideways. The art of chart analysis lies in deducing whether a particular motion signifies that buyers' demand or sellers' supply is predominating.
Prices move up when buyers' demand is greater than sellers' supply. The early stage of a bull market begins from a price base, or support level. This is known as a period of accumulation or support, where buyers are purchasing shares, and their interest at a low price keeps it from declining."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-371-376-reversal-patterns-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-371-376-reversal-patterns-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-371-376-reversal-patterns-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-early-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (377-381): Early Trend Identification by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Early Trend Identification by John F. Ehlers
Impressive profits can be accumulated just by staying with a position during a trend. We would all be millionaires if only we could identify the trend early in its onset. While the trends are obvious in retrospect, it's another matter altogether to identify the trend in the heat of battle. Not only that, there may not be a trend at all at the time we expect one.
If we make a reasonable mathematical model of the market we can examine it parametrically. The conclusions we draw from this model can help us establish our entry points and strategies for trading the trends. We will view the market as a random walk problem to create our model."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-377-381-early-trend-identification-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-377-381-early-trend-identification-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-377-381-early-trend-identification-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-canstoc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (382-384): Can Stock Fundamentals Protect You? by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Can Stock Fundamentals Protect You? by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D.
To use fundamental information to find the characteristics of crash-proof stocks, I correlated the price action of stocks during the October 1987 crash with their fundamental statistics. I used data from Barron's and the Media General Financial Weekly Market Digest to select two groups of stocks—one whose prices fell more than 5% in the crash (the Decliners) and another whose prices fell less than 5%, or even rose (the Nondecliners).
Figure 1 gives those statistics for which there was no significant difference between the means of the Decliners and the Nondecliners. Surprisingly, the yield, price/earnings ratio and the return on equity were about the same for both groups. The price/earnings ratio of the Decliners was 19.5 ± 13.2; for the Nondecliners it was 16.0 ± 13.1. Sentimentally, one might judge that the higher P/E ratio of the Decliners would make them more vulnerable in a decline. The difference between the two groups in P/E ratios, on the other hand, is just not significant (p > 0.3)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-382-384-can-stock-fundamentals-protect-you-by-lewis-carl-mokrasch-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-382-384-can-stock-fundamentals-protect-you-by-lewis-carl-mokrasch-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-382-384-can-stock-fundamentals-protect-you-by-lewis-carl-mokrasch-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-sidebs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (382-384): SIDEBAR: Sample Selection Method"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Sample Selection Method
This sidebar gives a selection of decliners and nondecliners that were used in the article, \""Can Stock Fundamentals Protect You?\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-382-384-sidebar-sample-selection-method-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-382-384-sidebar-sample-selection-method-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-382-384-sidebar-sample-selection-method-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-djia-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (385-387): Is The DJIA A Defective Indicator? by Max Bader, M.D., M.P.H."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Is The DJIA A Defective Indicator? by Max Bader, M.D., M.P.H.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is the most popular and commonly quoted of the stock market averages used to measure market activity. This is due mainly to its long history as a market measurement index rather than to other strengths. Today's DJIA differs considerably from that of previous years, a fact not generally recognized by its adherents. Currently, the DJIA is composed of 30 large-capitalization stocks initially selected to represent the major components of U.S. business.
Together, their sales represent about 20% of the sales of all companies listed on stock exchanges in the U.S. These corporations function mostly in mature industries, and occasionally they decline into borderline financial condition. DJIA components change fairly often due to mergers, buyouts, threatened bankruptcy and the need to keep it relevant to the characteristics of the market.
The DJIA is based on price and is not affected by capitalization. The share prices of the stocks in the\nDJIA vary widely, causing the higher-priced issues to move the average much more than the lower-priced issues when the percentage change in price is the same. To compute the DJIA, the per-share prices of the component companies are summed and then divided by a divisor that is adjusted for stock splits and other changes in the average. This process leads to increasingly smaller divisors, causing greater market moves when stock prices change. It also abruptly reduces the influence on the DJIA of changes in a stock's price after it has been split."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-385-387-is-the-djia-a-defective-indicator-by-max-bader-m-d-m-p-h-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-385-387-is-the-djia-a-defective-indicator-by-max-bader-m-d-m-p-h-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-385-387-is-the-djia-a-defective-indicator-by-max-bader-m-d-m-p-h-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-broad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (388-391): The Broadening Formation And The Bond Market by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Broadening Formation And The Bond Market by Thom Hartle
Trading the bond futures market offers opportunity to the skilled chartist because a diversity of price patterns occurs over time. In reality, chart patterns are accumulation, distribution, consolidation or trending periods. If you are able to accurately recognize an accumulation period — that is, demand, support or a price bottom — and are positioned (long) for the markup in prices (an uptrend), then the accuracy of your work can be quite profitable.
The same can be said for correctly appraising a distribution period (otherwise known as a top, resistance or supply) prior to a markdown in prices (a downtrend). Another approach is to attempt to let others determine tops or bottoms and focus your own energy on successfully trading consolidations. Accomplishing this over time is no easy task. It can be inferred from the tremendous liquidity of the bond markets that players are both numerous and high quality. All the participants have the same goal, clearly indicating that the competition for profits is equally intense. There is no substitute for education and experience.
Experience gives the trader insight into what may be referred to as the personality of the bond market. Understanding that personality can change your attitude from wanting to beat the market to being in sync with the market. Being attuned to the market's nature can increase profitability."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-388-391-the-broadening-formation-and-the-bond-market-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-388-391-the-broadening-formation-and-the-bond-market-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-388-391-the-broadening-formation-and-the-bond-market-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-measur-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (392-395): Measuring Volatility by Jean-Olivier Fraisse"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Measuring Volatility by Jean-Olivier Fraisse
Are financial markets becoming more and more volatile? Can they still attract the small investor, even with such impressive fluctuations in daily prices? Is program trading a source of additional volatility? While the media emphasize the wide swings that periodically occur in the financial markets, most academic studies have concluded that recent price volatility is little changed compared with that of previous years. Why the confusion? The media look at absolute price changes, while academic studies correctly assess volatility through the percentage change in daily prices or some similar price-relative measure.
Volatility is the tendency of a security price or return to vary over time: The higher the volatility, the larger the potential price move in the security within a given amount of time. Periods of low volatility, or consolidation periods, may be followed by large price moves. Volatility is also a key variable in option pricing. Thus, it is essential for investors to be aware of a security's current level and historical range of volatility.
Measuring volatility is more of an art than it is a science. Estimates depend on the period on which they are based as well as on the estimator — the estimating formula — used. While statistics tell us that the longer the estimation period, the more reliable the estimate, a relatively short period closer to the investment decision will better reflect a security's recent price behavior. With respect to the estimator, volatility can be measured in many ways, which frequently yields contradictory results. Fortunately, the specific estimator being used is of little importance. What is important, however, is that the same estimator be used consistently through the entire analysis so that today's level of volatility can be effectively compared with past levels. The volatility estimates, issued by different data services, in particular, may be not be comparable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-392-395-measuring-volatility-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-392-395-measuring-volatility-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-392-395-measuring-volatility-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-negativ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (396-397): Negative Volume Divergence Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Negative Volume Divergence Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
The Market Technicians Association has selected the late Paul Dysart for their 1990 annual award \""for outstanding contribution to the field for technical analysis.\"" Analyst Jim Alphier, in a report supporting the award, wrote: \""The jewel in the crown of Dysart's indicators was his Negative Volume Index. It was largely—but by no means exclusively—his interpretation of this statistical series [that] allowed him to compile his unheard-of forecasting record between 1946 and 1967.\"" Dysart called the indicator AMOMET (\""a measure of major economic trend\"").
Between 1946 and 1960 his interpretation of this index gave 17 significant signals, of which 13 were correct. The Market Logic organization found that over the past 50 years, when the indicator was above its 50-week average, there was a 96% chance that a bull market was in progress. However, in January 1969, the year of his death, Dysart demoted the index. It had been giving false signals, and so he reduced its weight in his group of indicators.
The index is an advance-decline cumulation, but it uses only those days with declining volume. On a day when volume is less than l that of the preceding day, declines are subtracted from advances and the result is added to the preceding cumulation. Dysart theorized that professionals prefer to do their buying and selling on quiet days, while the public moves in with emotion and enthusiasm on active days."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-396-397-negative-volume-divergence-index-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-396-397-negative-volume-divergence-index-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-396-397-negative-volume-divergence-index-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-market-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (398-403): Market Forecasting Model: ARIMA by Albert E. Parish Jr., Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Forecasting Model: ARIMA by Albert E. Parish Jr., Ph.D.
Numerous statistical and time series techniques have been adapted for use in modeling futures prices series by using the microcomputer. One such model is the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) method. Let us demonstrate the use of the model in trading by applying it to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat contract.
Some background in time series analysis is necessary before we can discuss the specifics of ARIMA modeling. If Pt represents the closing price, let Pt be the CBOT wheat contract on day t. On any given day, the closing price is a random variable, so it can take on one of a range of values, each with a certain probability of occurrence. For the wheat contract, this range of values is defined by adding and subtracting the daily price limit of 20 cents to the previous day's closing price. The variable Pt is determined by a distribution that assigns a probability of occurrence to each possible value on day t- A set of T days of observations is a portion of a probability distribution of a long sequence of observation extending far into the future and the past. Observations are made on different days are usually dependent on one other, and it is this statistical dependence that time series analysis studies. I used 1,054 days for the wheat contract from July 3, 1983, through July 30,1987."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-398-403-market-forecasting-model-arima-by-albert-e-parish-jr-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-398-403-market-forecasting-model-arima-by-albert-e-parish-jr-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-398-403-market-forecasting-model-arima-by-albert-e-parish-jr-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-sidebm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (398-403): SIDEBAR: Model identification"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Model identification
ARIMA models are specified by defining three parameters q represented by the variables p, d and q.\nMathematically, this is expressed with the notation ARIMA (p,d,q), where. . ."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-398-403-sidebar-model-identification-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-398-403-sidebar-model-identification-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-398-403-sidebar-model-identification-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c10-sidebr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:10 (398-403): SIDEBAR: Relevant formulas"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Relevant formulas
This sidebar gives the formulas and an example showing how to detrend wheat contracts, page 401."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-398-403-sidebar-relevant-formulas-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-398-403-sidebar-relevant-formulas-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-10-398-403-sidebar-relevant-formulas-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-consol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (405-409): Consolidation Patterns by Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Consolidation Patterns by Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle
Every price trend, be it stock or commodity, takes a breather from time to time. It is a period of indecision when the pressures of buyers and sellers balance each other out. This stalemate most often sets in after prices have jetted upward or plummetted to the bottom of the chart. It is a sign that prices have moved too rapidly and the momentum has been completely absorbed by the prevailing supply or demand.
This change from a trending (advancing or declining) to a consolidating market will usualy be accompanied by a visible increase in volume marking the beginning of the consolidation period. This increase in volume at the latter stage of a trend indicates that the price adjustment reflecting the opinions of traders and investors has reached a peak in either optimism or pessimism relating to the underlying fundamentals. The consolidation or more realistically labeled congestion period is a pause that allows participants to reevaluate the market and sets the stage for the next price move.
Identifying such congestion areas and interpreting the evolving price action to determine the next direction provides tradeable opportunities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-405-409-consolidation-patterns-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-405-409-consolidation-patterns-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-405-409-consolidation-patterns-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-tradt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (410-412): A trader's tale: Post-crash profits with fast action by Patrick D. Bosold"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A trader's tale: Post-crash profits with fast action by Patrick D. Bosold
For most people, commodity trading means getting on an adrenalin high at the start of the trading day, scrutinizing the markets intensely, making bold buy or sell decisions under pressure and executing lightning-fast trades to make a profit—especially during a market crash. But that's not Hal Masover's philosophy. At least, not most of the time.
Masover, a broker in Fairfield, IA, is of the opinion that successful commodity trading comes from patience, study and carefully considered action. \""But once in a while,\"" he adds, \""I get knocked over by a trading opportunity with a brief time window. Under these circumstances, fast action can make the difference between a quick profit and an opportunity lost.\""
Masover saw a window of opportunity open on Friday, October 13, 1989, a day most investors thought was more like a slamming door. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 200 points that day. Many of Masover's clients and associates thought a harrowing sequel to October 19, 1987, was in store. But Masover remembered Treasury bonds rallied sharply right after the Black Monday crash. On October 20 and again on October 21,1987, T-bonds rallied to touch their daily limit of three basis points. On October 22, the December 1987 T-bonds continued to rally, closing at just three ticks below their upper limit. He calculated that an investment in those T-bonds would have produced a profit of $8,906.25 per contract in three days."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-410-412-a-trader-s-tale-post-crash-profits-with-fast-action-by-patrick-d-bosold-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-410-412-a-trader-s-tale-post-crash-profits-with-fast-action-by-patrick-d-bosold-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-410-412-a-trader-s-tale-post-crash-profits-with-fast-action-by-patrick-d-bosold-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-markf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (413-416): The Market Facilitation Index Update: 1/89 to 3/90 by Charles F. Wright"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Market Facilitation Index Update: 1/89 to 3/90 by Charles F. Wright
I have noticed through the years that when a technique is disclosed in the popular press you can count on it to stop working for some time after the disclosure. You can speculate as to why, but the most logical reason is that many individuals are testing it or trading it. With so many people looking at the system, it is not surprising that it does not work.
This may be the market's way of weeding out the inexperienced and the part-timers. Most novice traders test a new technique in the immediate period after its disclosure. If it is not instantly profitable they will abandon it in the face of sound historical data and begin anew their search for the best system. The Market Facilitation Index (MFI) was no exception to this phenomenon.
The MFI is calculated by dividing the range of an intraday bar (in this case a Standard & Poor's 30-minute bar) by its tick volume. The result is the number of points that the S&P moved for each tick during the bar. For instance, if the range of the bar is 200 points and the tick volume is 100 for the same bar, then the MFI = 0.500. This means that for every tick during this bar the S&P moved 0.5 points."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-413-416-the-market-facilitation-index-update-1-89-to-3-90-by-charles-f-wright-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-413-416-the-market-facilitation-index-update-1-89-to-3-90-by-charles-f-wright-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-413-416-the-market-facilitation-index-update-1-89-to-3-90-by-charles-f-wright-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-second-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (417-418): Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
In 1983 I noted an indicator developed by analyst Stan Weinstein: the last hour indicator. Changes in prices in the last hour seemed to be useful in forecasting the future. Having an hourly data bank extending back to 1971 plus a fine bump of curiosity, I wrote a program and checked it out. The index did indeed prove useful.\nMy curiosity urged me on, and I checked the other hours of the day. Nothing happened until I tested the hour from 11 a.m. to noon, which, at that time, was the second hour. Here the score jumped up into the significant range. It was even more useful than the last hour.
Why should this be? One possible reason is the public sees the closing prices in the evening paper when they come home from work, and place their orders before the opening the next morning. The professionals move in later and correct the erroneous judgment and trading of the public."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-417-418-second-hour-index-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-417-418-second-hour-index-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-417-418-second-hour-index-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-sideba-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (419-422): SIDEBAR: Assessing volatility's predictive value"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Assessing volatility's predictive value
To assess the predictive value of volatility, I reviewed 1,443 days of price action on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index, starting on May 15, 1984. Volatility was measured by the standard deviation of percentage change in closing prices over a 20-day period and the ensuing price action by the ratio of the highest to the lower closing price in the 30 days following the end of the volatility estimation period.
If periods of low volatility are followed by large price moves, the coefficient of correlation between volatility and price action should be large and negative — large because volatility and price action are deemed to be closely related, negative because they vary in opposite directions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-419-422-sidebar-assessing-volatility-s-predictive-value-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-419-422-sidebar-assessing-volatility-s-predictive-value-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-419-422-sidebar-assessing-volatility-s-predictive-value-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-volitil-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (419-422): Volatility And Trading by Jean-Olivier Fraisse"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volatility And Trading by Jean-Olivier Fraisse
Volatility describes how fast and how much prices change. The larger a security's volatility, the wider its potential price move in a given amount of time. When measured consistently over time, a security's volatility generally remains within a well-defined range and periods of historically low or high volatility can be readily identified. These extremes do not last and the ensuing correction may provide a trading opportunity. Patience is essential because periods of extreme volatility can be protracted and further signals are required to confirm an impending price breakout. Overall, volatility is unreliable for market timing but it does provide a wealth of valuable information, in particular for options trading.
Low volatility characterizes a consolidation period of little price changes and sideways market moves. Such consolidation periods are an integral part of several well-known chart patterns—cup with handle, flat base and so on—that precede large price moves. Contrary to intuition, however, low volatility by itself has no predictive value for future price action."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-419-422-volatility-and-trading-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-419-422-volatility-and-trading-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-419-422-volatility-and-trading-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-stagea-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (423-425): Stage Analysis by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stage Analysis by Thom Hartle
Funds are invested in markets for various reasons. A high return on investment capital, of course, is the ultimate goal. Investment decisions, however, often are made with only limited amounts of careful thinking behind the decision to place capital at risk. The competitive nature of any market dictates that success over the long run will be directly correlated with the amount of effort advanced.
The process of carefully thought-out investment begins with a thorough understanding of the market in question and a range of information sources. The typical first step is using the research reports and recommendations that brokerage houses generate. Subscribing to newsletters that have daily and weekly telephone trading ideas is usually the next step. Finally, to understand balance sheets, earnings, cash flows and valuation techniques, reading books on the subject come last.
After all is said and done, a nagging question remains about the timing of the investment decisions. Purchasing software that collects price data is the next step in achieving better performance. This display of data requires interpretation much the way reading a map requires interpretation. The quest to understand this map is the study of technical analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-423-425-stage-analysis-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-423-425-stage-analysis-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-423-425-stage-analysis-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-jimow-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (426-428): Jim Owen On Professional Investment Managers by Mike Takano"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Jim Owen On Professional Investment Managers by Mike Takano
Jim Owen is managing director of NWQ Investment Management Co. and author of The Prudent Investor, published by Probus Publishing Co. He is co-founder and executive vice president of the Investment Management Consultants Association (IMCA), a national organization representing investment management consultants, money managers, attorneys and certified public accountants who serve the middle market investor, or investors or institutions with accounts of $5 million to $100 million.
Q: Do you think the information pool or resources are out there for the private trader?
A: That's a good question. Unfortunately, so much of what you get from the brokerage firm is biased, written more to make a sale than to provide the consumer with unbiased information. There's no lack of information. If anything, we're all inundated with data. But where the individual investor can get unbiased information is, I think [the real problem].
Q: What is your idea of a diversifed portfolio — diversifying across industries or diversifying among the fnancial products such as options, bonds, commodities?
A: In our business, diversification usually means diversifying across several asset categories. That would include stocks, bonds, real estate, venture capital. That probably doesn't include some of the more exotic vehicles such as commodities and options. Those, to me, are more specialized areas."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-426-428-jim-owen-on-professional-investment-managers-by-mike-takano-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-426-428-jim-owen-on-professional-investment-managers-by-mike-takano-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-426-428-jim-owen-on-professional-investment-managers-by-mike-takano-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-sidebe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (429-431): SIDEBAR: ELLIOTT WAVE PROPORTIONS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: ELLIOTT WAVE PROPORTIONS
According to Elliott wave theory, the first, third and fifth waves are proportional by the 1 to 1.618 to 1 ratio, known as the Fibonacci ratio. Figure 1 illustrates the basic five-wave sequence of the Elliott wave, and Figure 2 shows how waves 1,3 and 5 relate based on the Fibonacci ratio. Figure 3 shows how waves 1, 3 and 5 for bonds would proportionally relate based on the Fibonacci ratio, while Figure 4 shows how wave 3 of a real-life bond move exceeded the ideal proportionality by only 2/32nds in the move from 101-08 to 88-07 during the first four months of 1990."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-429-431-sidebar-elliott-wave-proportions-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-429-431-sidebar-elliott-wave-proportions-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-429-431-sidebar-elliott-wave-proportions-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-timin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (429-431): Timing The Bond Market With Elliott And Fibonacci by Roger Farley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Timing The Bond Market With Elliott And Fibonacci by Roger Farley
Fibonacci ratio analysis offers the Treasury bond trader an excellent long-term picture of the market. A rudimentary understanding of the Elliott wave theory and Fibonacci retracements allows bond traders of any outlook an excellent projection of market objectives and turning points.
Obviously, this approach relies on maintaining a proper wave count. Technicians who have developed a reliance on other trading tools often shy away from the Elliott wave because of the subtleties involved in interpreting corrections. As with any other approach, however, a focus on the overall picture sorts out\nsome of those complexities.
According to Elliott wave theory, the first, third and fifth waves are proportional by the 1 to 1.618 to 1 ratio. The bond market demonstrates this ratio to a remarkable degree in the move from its August 1989 high of 101.08 to the May 1990 low of 88.07."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-429-431-timing-the-bond-market-with-elliott-and-fibonacci-by-roger-farley-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-429-431-timing-the-bond-market-with-elliott-and-fibonacci-by-roger-farley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-429-431-timing-the-bond-market-with-elliott-and-fibonacci-by-roger-farley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-percen-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (432-433): Percent Difference Oscillator by Darryl W. Maddox"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Percent Difference Oscillator by Darryl W. Maddox
To determine intermediate-term turning points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), I use a procedure that I call a percent difference oscillator. The data gleaned from the use of the oscillator can be used to time fund-switching or stock index option buying and\nselling.
The oscillator involves calculating an 18-day moving average, the difference between the current day's close and the 18-day moving average and then expressing the difference as a percentage of the 18-day moving average. The calculation is as follows:
%Diff. = (Current value - 18-day mov. avg. / 18- day mov. avg.) x 100%.
Any moving average can be used to adjust for the various fundamental frequencies of the swings of the market. I started out using a 15-day moving average last year but then found that I got more consistent peaks using the 18-day moving average. About every six to eight months I check averages varying in length from 15 to 21 days to see which is currently giving the most consistent results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-432-433-percent-difference-oscillator-by-darryl-w-maddox-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-432-433-percent-difference-oscillator-by-darryl-w-maddox-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-432-433-percent-difference-oscillator-by-darryl-w-maddox-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-movamy-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (434-437): Moving Average Myths by Jason S. Glazier"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving Average Myths by Jason S. Glazier
There is a myth that commonly used averaging and smoothing techniques require different times to calculate. The simple, step-weighted and exponentially smoothed moving averages are the most commonly used for technical analysis. These three moving averages dominate technical analysis methodology. Rarely do technical analysis publications or books mention any aspects of efficiency in calculating commonly used functions, and commercial technical analysis programs often overlook these algorithms as well. To test this, see if your commercial program takes significantly longer to calculate a 40-day step weighted moving average than an exponentially smoothed moving average. Because these averages are calculated so frequently, it is essential that efficiency is considered. I will present linear iterative algorithms in C code for all three commonly used moving averages."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-434-437-moving-average-myths-by-jason-s-glazier-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-434-437-moving-average-myths-by-jason-s-glazier-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-434-437-moving-average-myths-by-jason-s-glazier-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-sidebf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (434-437): SIDEBAR: A five-day step-weighted moving average"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Examples of calculations for five-day weighted moving average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-434-437-sidebar-a-five-day-step-weighted-moving-average-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-434-437-sidebar-a-five-day-step-weighted-moving-average-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-434-437-sidebar-a-five-day-step-weighted-moving-average-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-sidebsm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (434-437): SIDEBAR: Simple moving average"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A quick definition of the Iterative and noninteractive forms of the simple moving average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-434-437-sidebar-simple-moving-average-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-434-437-sidebar-simple-moving-average-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-434-437-sidebar-simple-moving-average-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-sidebs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (438-440): SIDEBAR: SOME TEAM STRUCTURE TYPES"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: SOME TEAM STRUCTURE TYPES
Each team shown in this diagram is a two-person alliance unless specified otherwise. Note that we are dealing with changeable combinations. An information team can develop into a working team or even a trading team, or a trading team can develop into a working team, and so on. The transition phases are fluid."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-438-440-sidebar-some-team-structure-types-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-438-440-sidebar-some-team-structure-types-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-438-440-sidebar-some-team-structure-types-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-tradte-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (438-440): Trading As Teamwork by Franz-J. Buskamp"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading As Teamwork by Franz-J. Buskamp
If you were to ask Chicago trader Joseph Ritchie whether he sees himself as an individual trader or a team member, his reaction would probably be a tired smile. After all, he is a member of one of the most successful options and futures trading team, Chicago Research and Trading Ltd. In 1977 Joe Ritchie developed a simple, albeit promising arbitrage program.
The dollars necessary to put the system into practice were provided by three friends of Ritchie, with whom he founded CRT. From a starting capital of $100,000, CRT has to date realized $300 million in profits, easily placing the firm in a lead position worldwide amid independent firms trading for their own account.
What started out as a somewhat laidback operation in a cubbyhole of an office, equipped with only a pocket calculator, can today regard itself as a high-tech flagship for the U.S. financial sector.
A typical success story? Certainly! But it's also an example of what teamwork can bring."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-438-440-trading-as-teamwork-by-franz-j-buskamp-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-438-440-trading-as-teamwork-by-franz-j-buskamp-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-438-440-trading-as-teamwork-by-franz-j-buskamp-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c11-oneapp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:11 (441-443): One Approach To Trading Bonds by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""One Approach To Trading Bonds by Thom Hartle
During the course of trading, the technician strives to enhance profitability by developing a consistent approach. Success in trading, as in any profession or practicing any skill, comes from the school of hard knocks, trial and error: experience, and developing good judgment.
Trading is perhaps one of the most difficult skills to acquire because experience can be so expensive. There is no four- or six-year university that will give the prospective trader a curriculum, tests, field trips and homework in the art and science of trading. There are, however, books, seminars, individual lessons and a host of other sources (including this magazine) that can help you to develop trading skills. Ultimately, though, it will be you — your judgment — that sets the stage for your success.
But who are you? The answer to that question means a great deal, for it will influence what to expect from your adventure into trading. Insight into your own personality can help steer you to your own best approach to the markets. Are you very patient and methodical? If yes, then you should look into longer-term approaches. You probably do not want to be bothered with day-to-day volatility, for you may consider it to be a lot of noise, clouding the issue of what the trends are."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-441-443-one-approach-to-trading-bonds-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-441-443-one-approach-to-trading-bonds-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-11-441-443-one-approach-to-trading-bonds-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-east-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (445-448): East Meets West: CandlePower Charting by Greg Morris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""East Meets West: CandlePower Charting by Greg Morris
Candlestick charting was introduced to me back in May 1988 at an annual Market Technicians Association meeting. The method, which originated in the Japanese rice futures market in the 1600s, received its share of attention in more than a few lectures, as numerous technical analysts from Japan were attending and speaking at the meeting. Another exciting topic presented at the meeting was Equivolume charting. Richard Arms, who wrote Volume Cycles in the Stock Market in 1983, was introducing his Equivolume charting software.
Both the candlestick charting and Equivolume techniques are interesting and could enhance anyone's basic market analysis with enough study. After that meeting and some thought, we took those two techniques and combined them, calling it CandlePower charting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-445-448-east-meets-west-candlepower-charting-by-greg-morris-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-445-448-east-meets-west-candlepower-charting-by-greg-morris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-445-448-east-meets-west-candlepower-charting-by-greg-morris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-combin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (449-449): Combining Andrews With Elliott Wave High by Ron Jaenisch"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Combining Andrews With Elliott Wave High by Ron Jaenisch
The first concept that a student of the Elliott wave theory learns is about the five-wave structure of a move. The first concept that a student of the Andrews method learns is that prices make the median line about 80% of the time. The two concepts are compatible and they are also complementary.
To draw an Andrews median line, do the following:
1. Find three consecutive pivots, sometimes referred to as turns or ends of Elliott waves.
2. Label the pivots A, B and C.
3. Draw a line between point B and C and label the midpoint of that line D.
4. Draw a line from point A through point D.
You have now drawn a median line. According to Alan Andrews, prices make the median line 80% of the time. It is not unusual for prices to reverse upon meeting the line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-449-449-combining-andrews-with-elliott-wave-high-by-ron-jaenisch-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-449-449-combining-andrews-with-elliott-wave-high-by-ron-jaenisch-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-449-449-combining-andrews-with-elliott-wave-high-by-ron-jaenisch-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-clues-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (450-452): Clues To Market Direction With The S&P 500 Premium by Jean-Olivier Fraisse, CFA"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Clues To Market Direction With The S&P 500 Premium by Jean-Olivier Fraisse, CFA
Need a clue to short-term market direction? The premium between the Standard & Poor's 500 futures and the corresponding cash index may help, provided you understand how it is determined, what its theoretical (or fair) value is and how program traders use it.
The S&P 500 index is based on the stock prices of 500 different companies with an aggregate market value of some 80% of the value of all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. It is a capitalization weighted index; each component stock's price is multiplied by the number of common shares outstanding for that company, and the resulting market value is totaled. The total market value of all 500 firms is compared with that of the base period to derive the index price. A S&P 500 futures contract is an agreement between seller and buyer to deliver and take delivery, respectively, of a portfolio of stocks represented by the S&P 500 stock index at a specified future date. The delivery is actually a cash settlement of the difference between the original transaction price and the final price of the index at the termination of the contract. In practice, however, cash settlements occur in daily increments until the contract terminates, as the contract's trading price changes.
The value of the S&P 500 futures can be calculated by multiplying the futures price by $500. For example, with a futures price of 328.51, the value of the contract is 328.51 • $500, or $164,255."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-450-452-clues-to-market-direction-with-the-s-p-500-premium-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-cfa-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-450-452-clues-to-market-direction-with-the-s-p-500-premium-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-cfa-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-450-452-clues-to-market-direction-with-the-s-p-500-premium-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-cfa-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-sidebcp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (450-452): SIDEBAR: CALCULATING PREMIUM FAIR VALUE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: CALCULATING PREMIUM FAIR VALUE
A risk-averse investor wants to invest in the stock market. How does he do it without risking loss? He can borrow funds, buy a portfolio of stocks equivalent to the S&P 500 index at the price of S and simultaneously sell a S&P futures contract at a price of F. He has achieved a hedged position that is totally riskless, any depreciation in stock prices being compensated by a decrease in the value of the\nfutures he sold."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-450-452-sidebar-calculating-premium-fair-value-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-450-452-sidebar-calculating-premium-fair-value-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-450-452-sidebar-calculating-premium-fair-value-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-sidebw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (450-452): SIDEBAR: WSJ FUTURES"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: WSJ FUTURES
In The Wall Street Journal , you will find the closing prices of both the S&P 500 index and S&P futures in the futures table of the Index Trading Section. This sidebar gives a sample of the August 21, 1990, futures prices."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-450-452-sidebar-wsj-futures-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-450-452-sidebar-wsj-futures-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-450-452-sidebar-wsj-futures-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-gaps-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (453-455): Gaps by Thom Hartle and Melanie F. Bowman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Gaps by Thom Hartle and Melanie F. Bowman
Occasionally, trading leaps over a range of prices to reach a new level, leaving a blank space in the price chart. If these spaces are wider than the usual 1/8- to 1/2-point difference in bids, they imply that significantly more is yet to come. When chart gaps are no wider than the usual difference between bids, on the other hand, they provide no information.
Gaps appear most frequently in daily charts, where every day is a new opportunity to trade higher or lower than the previous day's high or low. A monthly chart, in contrast, offers a very narrow window in which gaps can appear. Only a gap that occurs at month-end will show up on the monthly chart, and this rarity alone gives such a gap significance.
The daily charts of medium- to high-priced stocks with normally low trading volume frequently produce gaps without technical significance. The bidding is simply too thin to fill all of the price range. Dividends, too, will artificially create insignificant gaps that are merely a change in the stock's book value, not a trend signal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-453-455-gaps-by-thom-hartle-and-melanie-f-bowman-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-453-455-gaps-by-thom-hartle-and-melanie-f-bowman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-453-455-gaps-by-thom-hartle-and-melanie-f-bowman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-perenn-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (456-459): Perennial Mutual Funds: Staying With Winners by Palmer Wright, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Perennial Mutual Funds: Staying With Winners by Palmer Wright, Ph.D.
In past issues of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Fay Dworkin and Gary Zin have advocated selecting stock mutual funds on the basis of relative performance over periods of one to nine months. Zin rejected the additional use of five- r year performance because requiring funds to exceed a market index over the\nlonger period did not improve his shorter-term momentum approach.
Focusing on any five-year performance list is of limited value, whether the ranking is end-of-year or current. Such \""winners\"" usually fall off the list within a few months. Needed are sustainable, or \""perennial,\"" long-term winners, funds that continue top five-year performance in the worst climate as well as the best. How to find such funds?
My detection method isolates no-load mutual funds with cyclical endurance. The five-year returns of the top equity funds move in cycles between maximum and minimum values. This is the primary basis for selecting the funds that stay on the top 30 list. By definition, perennial funds are those remaining on top through both extremes—the highest and lowest returns on investment. They have sustained a superior performance in both the best and worst five-year periods, usually about a year apart, though since 1976 the half cycles have been as short as six months and as long as 27."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-456-459-perennial-mutual-funds-staying-with-winners-by-palmer-wright-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-456-459-perennial-mutual-funds-staying-with-winners-by-palmer-wright-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-456-459-perennial-mutual-funds-staying-with-winners-by-palmer-wright-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-sidebr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (456-459): SIDEBAR: RELEVANT FORMULAS AND CALCULATIONS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: RELEVANT FORMULAS AND CALCULATIONS
To calculate and adjust a mutual fund's annualized five-year return to maintain a top 30 ranking: First, convert the annualized five-year return (A) from NLFI to the full compounded return, as shown in column 3 for March 31, 1990. Thus, Fidelity Magellan's annualized 20.9% return becomes 158.3% (column 4). . ."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-456-459-sidebar-relevant-formulas-and-calculations-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-456-459-sidebar-relevant-formulas-and-calculations-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-456-459-sidebar-relevant-formulas-and-calculations-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-sidebc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (460-463): SIDEBAR: COLE'S METHOD"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: COLE'S METHOD
Roger Cole developed a technique to determine when insiders are alerting each other about which stock will move and to what price. The technique involves categorizing trading days by price patterns and matching these patterns with volume requirements to look for up or down signals.
According to Cole's work, every trading day for every stock must fall into one of four categories: Rally\nDay, Reaction Day, Inside Day and Outside Day."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-460-463-sidebar-cole-s-method-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-460-463-sidebar-cole-s-method-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-460-463-sidebar-cole-s-method-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-cole-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (460-463): The Cole Method For Trading Stocks by Alan Friedman"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Cole Method For Trading Stocks by Alan Friedman
Is there a code that is used by insiders to alert each other as to which stock will move and to what price? As far-fetched as it seems, the late Roger Cole discovered such a code in the earlier part of this century that he used to profit in the stock market. Over the years, Cole handed down this method to traders, including one who now writes a newsletter based on this method. I found that the method has promise. For example, last August the method produced an up signal projection in\nAmerican Airlines (AMR) to 102-107. On October 5, after Donald Trump offered $120 a share for AMR, the stock hit a high of 107 1/4.
Even with the success of the AMR trade, I could see some flaws in the basic method. There was no timing indicator, for example. Sometimes I was stuck with a dead-in-the-water trade for more than a year. There were also too many losing trades and no stop-losses. The results were decidedly uneven, and so I dedicated myself to turning Cole's method into a mechanical system that would generate fast short-term profits. Beginning with real-time trading in April 1990, the method has produced a return of 26.1% in a cash account, including a $1 per share charge for commissions and slippage."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-460-463-the-cole-method-for-trading-stocks-by-alan-friedman-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-460-463-the-cole-method-for-trading-stocks-by-alan-friedman-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-460-463-the-cole-method-for-trading-stocks-by-alan-friedman-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-beat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (464-468): Beating The Market With An Expert Trading System by Jerry Felsen"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Beating The Market With An Expert Trading System by Jerry Felsen
A mathematically provable trading system (MPTS) can be defined as a trading method for which superior expected performance can be proved scientifically. I measure system performance by means of a risk-adjusted return—that is, the index of performance is a ratio of the expected return divided by the corresponding expected risk. To \""beat the market\"" earning an above-average risk adjusted return (RAR) is the key.
It's easier to beat the market with an MPTS than by methods that rely mainly on a good track record. The standard approach to beating the market is to research an investment advisor, trading system or investment manager whose past track record shows superior performance. For instance, investors who don't have time to trade may select a money manager who recently outperformed the market averages. Investment managers and traders will usually choose an investment method or trading system whose historical performance has been superior and hope that it will continue to beat the market. The media are full of advertisements from investment advisors or money managers who claim to have outperformed the\nmarket in the past. We are constantly exposed to advertisements selling trading systems with fantastic\nhistorical track records. There are also hundreds of books, seminars and articles describing superior trading systems. But their performance is backed mainly by a good-looking historical track record—often\na simulated track record. Yet almost every investor who turns his money over to a money manager with a good track record ends up disappointed. Almost every trader who buys a trading system with a fantastic historical performance ends up a sucker."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-464-468-beating-the-market-with-an-expert-trading-system-by-jerry-felsen-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-464-468-beating-the-market-with-an-expert-trading-system-by-jerry-felsen-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-464-468-beating-the-market-with-an-expert-trading-system-by-jerry-felsen-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-sidebis-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (464-468): SIDEBAR: IMPLEMENTING THE SYSTEM"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: IMPLEMENTING THE SYSTEM
The system described is complex, and therefore we are implementing it gradually, starting with a small prototype that automates only a small fraction of the total system. The expert system described here programs only some of those decisions that depend on market timing. It's built with the aid of the VP-Expert shell (knowledge base management system) Release 2.0, made by Paperback Software International. Its platform is the IBM PS/2 Model 55SX with 2 MB of RAM and a 30-MB hard disk with a double-sided 3.5-inch diskette drive, together with the MS-DOS 3.0 operating system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-464-468-sidebar-implementing-the-system-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-464-468-sidebar-implementing-the-system-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-464-468-sidebar-implementing-the-system-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-para-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (469-472): Parameter Optimization by Roger Altman, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Parameter Optimization by Roger Altman, Ph.D.
Optimizing the parameters of mechanical trading systems to improve performance is a common technique, but does such a procedure improve system profitability? Is there evidence that optimization will lead us to parameters that yield at least better than average performance?
Any system has three components:
The unit of price or time change—also known as gang size —within which price movements will be compared. In bar charts, for example, time is stipulated so that price is free to vary to any value. Daily, weekly and monthly bar charts are the most common examples. Point and figure charts, however, require price changes to be stipulated so that time is free to vary to any value. Price or time change is a primary parameter because it is not inherently related to any particular trading system.
-The number of time or price units, which are taken into account in a trading system. Examples are the\nnine-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), the 14-month stochastic or the 200-day moving average. Since\nthis decision should be made before a trading system is chosen, the number in question is also referred\nto as a primary parameter.
-Your trading plan. A trading plan that is used to manipulate price and related data is a \""system.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-469-472-parameter-optimization-by-roger-altman-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-469-472-parameter-optimization-by-roger-altman-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-469-472-parameter-optimization-by-roger-altman-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-sidebso-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (469-472): SIDEBAR: STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR
The stochastic oscillator is used to indicate overbought or oversold conditions on a scale of zero to 100%.
The stochastic process is based on the observation that as price decreases, the daily closes tend to accumulate nearer the extreme lows of the daily range. Likewise, as price increases, the daily closes tend to accumulate closer to the extreme highs of the daily range. This concept also holds for monthly, weekly or even intraday time frames."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-469-472-sidebar-stochastic-oscillator-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-469-472-sidebar-stochastic-oscillator-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-469-472-sidebar-stochastic-oscillator-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-leasts-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (473-475): Least-Squares Data Smoothing by Harold A. Kreamer"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Least-Squares Data Smoothing by Harold A. Kreamer
Superimposed on and often indistinguishable from daily market data trends are seemingly random fluctuations, known as noise. An analyst wants to remove as much noise from data as possible without degrading underlying valid trends. To remove noise from stock, commodity and index data trends as efficiently as possible, I use the least-squares method.
Whereas a lengthy moving average that goes through a sharp peak or trough reduces the extreme value, the least squares method retains most of that value. Triangular and exponential methods purposely weigh data asymmetrically, which introduces some distortion. Least squares minimizes data distortion. In addition, least-squares data smoothing can also be used as a prelude for further data treatments or as a method of analysis on its own."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-473-475-least-squares-data-smoothing-by-harold-a-kreamer-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-473-475-least-squares-data-smoothing-by-harold-a-kreamer-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-473-475-least-squares-data-smoothing-by-harold-a-kreamer-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-findy-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (476-477): Find your optimal f by Ralph Vince"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Find your optimal f by Ralph Vince
As a computer programmer for Larry Williams, winner of the 1987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading, I have had the opportunity to analyze many good trading systems. Even the best systems, however, suffer from an as-yet incomplete library of money management techniques. I felt a technique to select the optimal number of contracts to trade in an account needed to be designed. The value of such a system is determined by using the formula for mathematical expectation:
(W•P)+[L (1 -P)]=ME
Where:
P = The probability of winning
W = The amount you may win
L = The amount you may lose
ME = Mathematical expectation
Suppose someone offers to pay you $2 if a coin toss comes up heads, but you must pay $1 if the result is tails. The mathematical expectation here is a positive 50 cents, because
(2 • 0.5) + [-1 (1 - 0.5)] = 0.50"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-476-477-find-your-optimal-f-by-ralph-vince-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-476-477-find-your-optimal-f-by-ralph-vince-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-476-477-find-your-optimal-f-by-ralph-vince-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-twofil-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (481-481): Two Filtered Indicators by Daniel E. Downing"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Two Filtered Indicators by Daniel E. Downing
By filtering two indicators, my firm and I discovered the Friday tick indicator and the last hour/ first hour indicator. These new indicators have shown an interesting relationship to the equity markets over the intermediate term, which we define as a period of four to six weeks. The indicators are easy to derive and follow.
We came upon the idea of the filter when we were discussing whether any one day of the week is more significant than the others for the markets. We agreed that Friday was the most important day for trading, and so we decided to take a poll to confirm this. We surveyed our institutional clients' firms. Of 218 surveys that were returned (297 were sent out), 83% said Friday was the most important day of the week for the markets, 14% chose Monday, 2% felt no particular day was more important than the others and 1% chose Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-481-481-two-filtered-indicators-by-daniel-e-downing-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-481-481-two-filtered-indicators-by-daniel-e-downing-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-481-481-two-filtered-indicators-by-daniel-e-downing-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c12-custom-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:12 (482-483): Customer Option Activity by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Customer Option Activity by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
The Options Clearing Corporation issues a weekly report to subscribers that lists the totals of options bought and sold on all exchanges nationwide. The transactions are segregated by customer, market makers and by firm. Technical analyst Robert Nurock developed an index of professional activity based on the buying and selling of puts and calls. I've applied his idea to the customer area.
If the public (customers) are optimistic and are buying calls, the calls are being supplied to them by smart money– the professionals. This should be a bearish sign. If the public buys puts, they are pessimistic, and their puts are supplied by smart money. Quite bullish! To put this into the form of an index, Bob Nurock suggested the formula in Figure 1 (I've changed it from\nprofessionals to customers). The denominator is the total activity. I multiply the ratio by 100 to put it into percentage form and smooth with a 33% exponential average. This is the index shown in Figure 2. High figures are bearish; low figures are bullish."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-482-483-customer-option-activity-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-482-483-customer-option-activity-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-12-482-483-customer-option-activity-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-model-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (47-55): Modeling the markets with Bezier curves by Mark Angel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Modeling the markets with Bezier curves by Mark Angel
The Bezier curve, also known as a B-curve, is a mathematical construct for tracing a smooth path between a series of key support and resistance points. B-curves, which were created as an industrial engineering method, are also a powerful new tool for understanding and predicting commodity markets.
A quick glance at a price chart reveals a tortuous winding path of bars pulled first in one direction and then another by unseen forces. The march of prices is rarely linear. Frequently, the market appears to steer a meandering course between floors of support and ceilings of resistance. On occasion, however, prices gravitate relentlessly in one direction.
Technical analysis exists to impose order on this chaos. The idea is to create a mathematical model or simulation of the market. Whether this predictive model is simple or complex, the goal of the technician is to separate the meaningless movement of prices from the profound. The moving average crossover approach, for example, ignores changes in price until the point at which a close passes under or over the current average is reached. This particular price movement is considered meaningful, and so a trading position is triggered. All technical systems filter price fluctuations to discern the market's \""true\"" direction."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-47-55-modeling-the-markets-with-bezier-curves-by-mark-angel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-47-55-modeling-the-markets-with-bezier-curves-by-mark-angel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-47-55-modeling-the-markets-with-bezier-curves-by-mark-angel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-sidebb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (47-55): SIDEBAR: Bezier equations"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Bezier equations
The Bezier method is based on three equations which are provided in this sidebar."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-47-55-sidebar-bezier-equations-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-47-55-sidebar-bezier-equations-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-47-55-sidebar-bezier-equations-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-sidebt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (47-55): SIDEBAR: Test parameters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Test parameters
Parameters needed to use a Bezier program or to test curves by hand."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-47-55-sidebar-test-parameters-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-47-55-sidebar-test-parameters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-47-55-sidebar-test-parameters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-martin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (56-59): Martingales by James William Ferguson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Martingales by James William Ferguson
It was the first time I had ever been in Las Vegas, the first time I'd played a Martingale, and my eyes had been riveted to the flashing roulette wheel for more than three hours. Finally, hearing the whispers behind me, I turned and saw the crowd, six deep, straining to see the play. I was shocked. I had not realized the magnetism a betting system exerts on a gambling crowd.
\""How're they doing?\"" someone whispered.
\""Great. They're 'way ahead.\""
I caught the quick smile of a young blond woman wearing a mink stole near me. In the desert. In July, at 120 degrees. The madness of crowds....
Not only that, the whispers were wrong. We were losing heavily. We 'd suffered several runs of three and\nfour and some of five against us. I glanced at my best friend — he had the gambler's hands and placed the bets, while I kept track of the math — and nodded. He took out the last of our stash, three crisp new hundred-dollar bills, and threw them on the table.
Our college summer adventure — the dream of Mexico, the sea at Mazatlan — all rested now on the power of the Martingale."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-56-59-martingales-by-james-william-ferguson-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-56-59-martingales-by-james-william-ferguson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-56-59-martingales-by-james-william-ferguson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-stockma-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (60-62): Stock market timing with interest rates by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock market timing with interest rates by Jay Kaeppel
The level and trend of interest rates has a tremendous influence over what types of investments investors choose to put their money into. Generally, when interest rates are low and/or falling, investors will move into the stock market, pushing prices higher. Conversely, when interest rates are high and/or rising, investors will move out of stocks, thus pushing prices lower.
By tracking interest rates, investors can often identify periods when the probability of higher stock prices is great. The key is knowing which interest rates to watch and which trends signal a high probability that prices will move. A simple indicator is the Treasury bill/discount rate ratio (TB/DR), which measures the relationship between two key interest rates. Over the past 35 years, the stock market has moved higher 90% of the time when this indicator has been bullish.\nIt is generally accepted among market technicians that it is a favorable sign for the stock market when the yield on three-month T-bills falls below the Federal Reserve Board's (Fed) discount rate, and an unfavorable sign for stock prices when T-bill yields rise above the discount rate. After researching this indicator in more detail, I was surprised to find just how useful this measure really is at signaling true bull market conditions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-60-62-stock-market-timing-with-interest-rates-by-jay-kaeppel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-60-62-stock-market-timing-with-interest-rates-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-60-62-stock-market-timing-with-interest-rates-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-insider-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (63-65): Insider insight Richard W Arms. Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Insider insight Richard W Arms. Jr.
For months the stock in question has done very little. It has moved sideways in a narrow trading range on moderate volume. Suddenly, volume doubles, the stock moves sharply higher, breaking out above the old congestion and signaling the beginning of a move which could be extremely profitable! It's a trader's dream, if he or she happens to notice the move and recognizes its importance. The dream can turn into a nightmare, however, if the move is quickly aborted and the stock drops back into the old range or, worse yet, if it abruptly turns around.. There are ways to recognize a move quickly and ascertain its validity.
Every stock move, no matter how small, has a cause. The minor jiggles throughout the trading day may be caused by unimportant extraneous factors such as a seller who needs to raise cash or a buyer who has studied the fundamentals and decided the stock looks like a good value. Larger moves often are caused by a news item as it is released to the public. Still others may be brought about by rumors. Sometimes, overall market conditions can affect the action of individual issues. There are other reasons for price movement, reasons which are often unidentifiable, yet their effect is dramatically apparent. They are the moves we usually attribute to \""insiders.\"" The assumption is that someone knows something we don't know about the stock and is acting in accordance with that knowledge. Usually, by the time we find out why the stock is moving, the move is over and we have missed an opportunity. Yet these moves, if recognized in time, can be very profitable. Our job, then, is to look for fingerprints on the stocks; find those issues which are being moved for no apparent reason and jump aboard while the move is still in its early stages."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-63-65-insider-insight-richard-w-arms-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-63-65-insider-insight-richard-w-arms-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-63-65-insider-insight-richard-w-arms-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-staying-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (66-69): Staying with the markets by Eric L. Sharp"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Staying with the markets by Eric L. Sharp
Experience is a great teacher, but she charges such horrendous fees. Traders in both the cash and futures markets know that better than anyone. Anything that increases your insight into directions and targets for prices can replace some costly lessons. For years now, I've used a combined process of statistical and technical analysis for making investment and trading decisions. The results of the statistical analyses give me a framework for making projections and recognizing over- and under valuations. That adds to my confidence in applying technical analysis for timing, and \""gutsing up\"" for the actual trades.
The field of statistics supplies a method for mathematically working out relationships between causes and effects. Multiple regression analysis is what it's called. It's used in science, engineering, medical research and even in projecting the outcome of elections. In analyzing investments, we look at the price of an investment as an effect. Then we search for possible causes.
Let's take gold prices. The monthly average prices (the effects) for the past five or 10 years can be compiled and analyzed against an number of potential causes. Some possibilities are Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation, various foreign exchange rates, money supply, other metals prices, industrial production, the I.Q.'s of elected officials, and so on. The list of potential causes is endless. (Of course, the unavailability of some data is a problem — just try to get a congressman's I.Q.)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-66-69-staying-with-the-markets-by-eric-l-sharp-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-66-69-staying-with-the-markets-by-eric-l-sharp-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-66-69-staying-with-the-markets-by-eric-l-sharp-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-barnr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (70-73): 2-bar NR and ORB by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""2-bar NR and ORB by Toby Crabel
Markets are in a constant state of flux; they are continuously shifting from movement to rest and back to movement again. This interchange is never ending — from contraction to expansion to contraction — with one phase directly responsible for the other's existence. A two-bar narrowing range (2-bar NR), a price pattern that is the narrowest two-day range relative to any two-day range within the previous 20 market days, reflects that market activity and quantifies the market concept of contraction. Thus, contraction is a relative condition that can occur even in a volatile market.
Once a market concept is formulated, it becomes tradeable. In this study, an opening range breakout (ORB) trade was taken the day after the 2-bar NR was formed. An ORB is defined as a trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range. My assumption is that with a contraction of this kind, trending action would follow the direction of the breakout. Another assumption is that because this pattern is such a well-defined contraction, trending would take place over the next several days. Figures 2 through 9 confirm these assumptions and illustrate, in order:
• The amount above or below the open that the trade was initiated.
• The number of days in the trade (zero indicates an exit on the close the same day of entry, five indicates an exit on the close five days after the entry).
• Whether the trade was a buy or a sell (determined by gross profits only).
• The percentage profitability on each trade (no stops were used on the tests).
• The number of trades.
• The average of all winning and losing trades.
• Gross profit exclusive of commission or slippage."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-70-73-2-bar-nr-and-orb-by-toby-crabel-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-70-73-2-bar-nr-and-orb-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-70-73-2-bar-nr-and-orb-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-volske-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (74-77): Volatility skews by Andrew Sterge"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volatility skews by Andrew Sterge
It is inevitable that relative mispricings occur among many different options on a single underlying instrument. It is possible to exploit these mispricings using the Black-Scholes theory of option valuation, despite risk and the inherent flaws in the model. This can be done by trading spreads in which theoretically underpriced options are bought and theoretically overpriced options are sold. Analysis of virtually any class of option prices reveals that the options do not all trade at the same implied volatility.
This is counterintuitive, because implied volatilities on a single underlying instrument are supposed to measure the same parameter — that is, the market's perception of that instrument's volatility over the remaining life of the option. Implied volatility of options with the same expiration date, considered a function of strike price, is called the volatility skew. Since options with different strike prices cannot be compared strictly on the basis of price, their volatility skews become a convenient way to represent the relative richness or cheapness of the options.
Take, for example, October 16, 1989, which was a particularly rich day for volatility skews, as demonstrated by the three different types of skews in Figure 1. Note how the out-of-the-money options for cattle, Eurodollar and bond futures all traded at higher implied volatilities than at-the-money options for these contracts. This implies that out-of-the-money options are overpriced relative to at-the-money options."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-74-77-volatility-skews-by-andrew-sterge-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-74-77-volatility-skews-by-andrew-sterge-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-74-77-volatility-skews-by-andrew-sterge-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-volind-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (78-79): Volume indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
The activity of the market, its volume, has long been of interest to investors and traders. I have a copy of the first book on stock market technique, ABC of Stock Speculation, written by S. A. Nelson in 1903. In it, he discusses the saying, \""A dull market precedes a decline\"" and the differences in bull and bear markets.
Volume on a rise has always been considered good news; volume on a decline is bad news. It's an indication of the direction of enthusiasm. Is the market enthusiastic on the rises or is it enthusiastic on the declines?
To measure this inclination and check it out, several years ago I developed two indicators, the first of which is Volume Up/Down Days. This is a simple weekly comparison of the volume on the last five rising days to the volume on the last five declining days. To smooth out erratic moves, I use a 33% exponential which is similar to a five-week average. Over the past six years the indicator has averaged 106.5% with a standard deviation of 7.71."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-78-79-volume-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-78-79-volume-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-78-79-volume-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c02-wad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:2 (80-80): WAD trades ABX by Joseph Barics"",""caption-linebreaks"":""WAD trades ABX by Joseph Barics
Williams' on-balance volume, or \""WAD,\"" takes each day's W, where W = [Close - Yesterday's Close/ High - low] Volume, and adds it to a cumulative total. (Note: when available, open replaces yesterday's close.) Therefore,\nWAD = SW"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-80-80-wad-trades-abx-by-joseph-barics-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-80-80-wad-trades-abx-by-joseph-barics-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-2-80-80-wad-trades-abx-by-joseph-barics-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-dayre-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (101-104): The 42/49/55 day reaction technique by Chuck Carpino"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The 42/49/55 day reaction technique by Chuck Carpino
The 42/49/55 day reaction technique is a trading method I have used for years to buy a stock or index. Although the signal is infrequent, its reliability for a substantial profit is extremely high. In addition, the technique allows low-risk trades because stops can be placed close to the entry points with confidence. The indicator is based on a simple chart pattern that must occur within a specified time period. The pattern, should it evolve, will always take place during a market pullback. The basic signal is a stock completing three down waves in either 42, 49 or 55 calendar days from its peak. The third down wave must occur within one day on either side of the 42-, 49- or 55-day count. It is not necessary for each top to be lower. On occasion, the last top exceeds the previous one. In the pattern's most recognizable form, each low is lower than the previous low. Quite often, however, only a double low formation will appear. But the final low will never be a higher low.
A few minor rules should be followed when employing this technique. If the reaction begins in February, a short month, it is possible to end up with three waves occurring a day short of one day on either side of 42, 49 or 55 days. It also should be noted that, on occasion, a stock will make a peak at the same price over several trading days, or identical tops will be separated by a weekend so it will not be clear as to exactly which day the count should begin. Don't allow this to confuse you. If the pattern is clearly there, use whatever beginning date it takes to arrive at a proper calendar count. A pattern of only two waves down into the 42nd day does not qualify as a buy signal. Buying should be delayed because there may be a third leg down into the 55th day. Occasionally, you will see stocks that will show four waves down into our calendar-day count. This will usually occur on the 55th day and that is an acceptable buy point."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-101-104-the-42-49-55-day-reaction-technique-by-chuck-carpino-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-101-104-the-42-49-55-day-reaction-technique-by-chuck-carpino-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-101-104-the-42-49-55-day-reaction-technique-by-chuck-carpino-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-rever-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (105-108): Reverse Martingales by James William Ferguson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Reverse Martingales by James William Ferguson
Perhaps the most celebrated legend in gambling lore tells of the French noble who, suspecting that he had detected an aberration in a roulette wheel on the Riviera, sent a team into the hall and had them record every coup. For several weeks he compiled the results until he learned the sequences to expect. Then, his suspicions confirmed, he rode the \""runs\"" — the consecutive reds or blacks, odds or evens, highs or lows — in one grand foray after another until, finally, he broke the bank.
Only once have I encountered an unbalanced wheel. It was in a private club in London. I was a poor graduate student, but I still went to the gambling clubs quite often, enjoying the excitement and the few extra dollars I picked up from time to time. It was late one night, and I noticed two men, one tall, slim, blond, perhaps a Pole, the other dark, swarthy, stout, possibly an Egyptian, betting heavily at one table. A small group dotted with men from the house gathered behind them. Ah, some excitement, I thought.
I strolled over and watched their play. The two men were betting numbers and won several times. The Pole, often betting \""odd\"" along with his number, seemed particularly lucky. As I stood absently recording the coups, I suddenly noticed a strange pattern: The wheel seemed to throw two or three \""odds\"" for every \""even.\"" I watched for a while in disbelief, but the pattern continued. Then I began to bet."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-105-108-reverse-martingales-by-james-william-ferguson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-105-108-reverse-martingales-by-james-william-ferguson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-105-108-reverse-martingales-by-james-william-ferguson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-voladj-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (109-111): Volume-adjusted moving averages by Richard W. Arms Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volume-adjusted moving averages by Richard W. Arms Jr.
A moving average line is just that. It smoothes price over time, reducing erratic, shorter-term swings to a smoother, more comprehensible line. Any changes in the parameters of the moving average line, such as the time involved, the weighting, the offsetting of the print and so forth, are only attempts to make the smoothing more informative. However, there has been no real change in that the analysis is still dependent on only two factors: the price of the stock, commodity or average being studied, and the time period.
This is not to say the information is without value. Indeed, moving average lines are extremely informative. Through them, basic trends can be seen more clearly, uninfluenced by short-term fluctuations. When different moving averages are combined, the crossovers often can be very profitable signals.
However, time-based moving averages make the assumption that all days are equal. Whether the stock is quiet and inactive or swinging wildly and generating huge volume, the day's contribution to the moving average is the same: one price entry in the moving average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-109-111-volume-adjusted-moving-averages-by-richard-w-arms-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-109-111-volume-adjusted-moving-averages-by-richard-w-arms-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-109-111-volume-adjusted-moving-averages-by-richard-w-arms-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-resist-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (112-113): Resistance by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Resistance by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Prices, like everything else move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline and vice versa.
—Edwin Lefèvre, in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
If the market has low resistance to advances and strong resistance to declines, prices move up rapidly. When resistance to the advance builds up, prices slow down and finally reverse when the resistance to advance exceeds the resistance to decline. If the market then exhibits low resistance to the decline, prices fall rapidly.
In other words, the direction of prices and the speed of advance or decline are determined by the difference between the resistances. Resistance can be measured by the volume of trading required to move prices one point. It's the number of shares traded per point change.
To measure the difference between resistance to advances and declines, I developed an index some years ago that subtracts the resistance to advances from the resistance to declines, so that high figures are\nbullish and low figures are bearish. With a computer, I looked at each of the hours in the week and subtracted the shares per point in the rising hours from the shares per point in the declining hours."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-112-113-resistance-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-112-113-resistance-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-112-113-resistance-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-elecb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (114-116): The electronic bulletin board comes of financial age by Marshall Rens and Federico L. Brown"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The electronic bulletin board comes of financial age by Marshall Rens and Federico L. Brown
If you've never explored one, computer bulletin boards must seem b-o-r-i-n-g — a bunch of hacker nerds earnestly arguing via their personal computers the merits of Intel's 80386 chip over Motorola's 68020 or engaged in other trivial pursuits. It's a pity, because for the computer owner the bulletin board system (BBS) is heaven on earth—a quick source of thousands of free investment software programs. All yours for the asking. All free, or the next thing to it.
If these programs were just games, you could dismiss the hundreds of BBSs. But ask yourself: If you needed a good options valuation program, would you rather pay $360 for a commercial one that you haven't had the opportunity to try, or grab any of the numerous full-feature options programs from a bulletin board and pay little or nothing? If you wanted to track a portfolio of your stocks, would you rather pay $400 for a portfolio manager or grab PC-File from a BBS and accomplish the same for free? The same goes for tax programs and any number of utility programs that improve your computer's operation or add to its ease of use."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-114-116-the-electronic-bulletin-board-comes-of-financial-age-by-marshall-rens-and-federico-l-brown-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-114-116-the-electronic-bulletin-board-comes-of-financial-age-by-marshall-rens-and-federico-l-brown-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-114-116-the-electronic-bulletin-board-comes-of-financial-age-by-marshall-rens-and-federico-l-brown-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-tactti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (117-120): Tactical asset allocation with the Market Forecaster by Mark Hallinan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tactical asset allocation with the Market Forecaster by Mark Hallinan
When used as an allocator, the Market Forecaster program, produced by William Finnegan Associates, Inc., may produce higher profits than a simple buy-and-hold strategy and at less risk. Using the program as an allocator also produces higher profits than market timing and is less sensitive to varying market conditions.
The program, an intermediate-term econometric forecasting package for the U.S stock market, can be used to allocate assets between any U.S. stock portfolio that is highly correlated with either the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 stock index (S&P 500) (such as any blue chip, common stock or mutual fund) and cash."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-117-120-tactical-asset-allocation-with-the-market-forecaster-by-mark-hallinan-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-117-120-tactical-asset-allocation-with-the-market-forecaster-by-mark-hallinan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-117-120-tactical-asset-allocation-with-the-market-forecaster-by-mark-hallinan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-liquid-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (121-123): Liquidity Data Bank: Big promises, small deliveries by Thomas K Bonen"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Liquidity Data Bank: Big promises, small deliveries by Thomas K. Bonen
In 1984, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) introduced the revolutionary Liquidity Data Bank (LDB) to the general public. It was a truly unique venture intended to open up the exchange and its price information to the investing public with hopes of increasing non-member trading in its sagging agricultural products. With this introduction, the CBOT created a database of information that previously only floor traders could observe. It was a database of the actual trading volume for each price traded during the day—an absolutely novel disclosure. Armed with this exciting new database, the public (non-members of the CBOT) could know the specific volume traded at each individual price throughout the day's trading session.
The LDB was a monumental undertaking and one of the most forward-thinking disclosures ever made by an exchange or institution. The CBOT actually provided something not demanded by its customers or initiated by its competitors. At the time, it was the perfect—and necessary—complement to the Market Profile, a new form of market and price analysis being developed by CBOT member Peter Steidlmayer and his colleagues.
The LDB and Steidlmayer's \""price-time-volume analysis\"" were supposed to be the perfect marriage of data and analysis. But was it a perfect union?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-121-123-liquidity-data-bank-big-promises-small-deliveries-by-thomas-k-bonen-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-121-123-liquidity-data-bank-big-promises-small-deliveries-by-thomas-k-bonen-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-121-123-liquidity-data-bank-big-promises-small-deliveries-by-thomas-k-bonen-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-option-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (124-125): Options? Let's get real by Ana Maria Wilson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Options? Let's get real by Ana Maria Wilson
When it comes to speculating in options, most players are losers (in bottom-line, real-life-transactions) who fall into two groups: most novices, and the war-scarred veterans struggling to survive. Both groups, however, share the same passionate goal: to crack the code that will put them on the winning side. Because everyone seems convinced the key to the code is lying out there somewhere, the search usually steers to the rich and unending universe of trade literature on the subject. If it has \""options\"" in the title, the read is on.
Let's face it, though. To the novice, most articles on options induce a severe case of MEGO (\""my eyes glaze over\"") right about the end of the first paragraph. On the other hand, those who are more experienced dread the prospect of enduring (again!) the extended display of lexicon and explanations that is sure to follow. So I might as well give everyone the good news first. By the time you finish reading this piece you will not have once read a definition of what an option is or how it works, nor will I explain the difference between a call and its flip side, the put.
I will not confuse you with the fact that you can be long or short, the equivalent of saying you can buy or sell options. Mum's the word when it comes to leverage, strike prices, term, expiration, underlying asset, in-the-money or out-of-the-money options, near month, far month, volatility, premium, Black-Scholes formula, bull spreads, straight hedge, bear spreads, covered or naked writes. Least of all I will not explain some of the truly exotic strategies. Why not? Because having been on both sides of the market, as a trader and broker, my experience indicates that your chance of making any money consistently in options, when used for pure speculation, is in the ballpark of zero."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-124-125-options-let-s-get-real-by-ana-maria-wilson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-124-125-options-let-s-get-real-by-ana-maria-wilson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-124-125-options-let-s-get-real-by-ana-maria-wilson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-reduc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (83-89): Reducing profit variability from technical trading systems by Milton S. Boyd and B. Wade Brorsen"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Reducing profit variability from technical trading systems by Milton S. Boyd and B. Wade Brorsen
Some technical traders spend a sizable portion of their time searching for the perfect trading system or the \""optimal\"" parameters, hoping the newly discovered system will give them the highest-possible profit. However, research shows that some currently available popular trend-following systems have provided a reasonable profit, even when traded with conservative margin levels.
Unfortunately, the variance of the profits from these technical systems tends to be very high. In fact, the variance of the profits may be as important as the profit level itself. Since the variance from these systems is often very high in relation to the average profit level, technical traders may find these profits to be too variable to trade only one commodity at a time. Profit variance can be reduced by trading more commodities, because individual commodity profits tend to be uncorrelated. However, research also shows that trading more systems does not help as much in reducing the profit variance, because many popular trend-following systems are similar and have returns that are highly correlated. Finally, the question of why technical trading systems are profitable can be answered in terms of price variance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-83-89-reducing-profit-variability-from-technical-trading-systems-by-milton-s-boyd-and-b-wade-brorsen-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-83-89-reducing-profit-variability-from-technical-trading-systems-by-milton-s-boyd-and-b-wade-brorsen-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-83-89-reducing-profit-variability-from-technical-trading-systems-by-milton-s-boyd-and-b-wade-brorsen-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-movdol-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (91-95): Moving the dollar by Eric Sharp"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving the dollar by Eric Sharp
There's no doubt about it. The U.S. dollar isn't just an important trading vehicle in itself, but its price changes have major effects that ripple into many other markets. In essence, it's a \""dog\"" with a tail that wags prominently into the bond, stock and gold markets. The dollar also is a rather misunderstood phenomenon.
From the end of World War II until the early 1970s, the dollar was tied to other major currencies by fixed exchange rate agreements. After it became free-floating, the dollar went through some major ups and downs. Most striking of all is the roller-coaster ride it took during the Reagan years, doubling in value and then plummeting almost to where it started. In early 1988, the dollar index may have formed a bottom. Just from broad relationships, it seems possible that it's in the early part of another major bull market. That makes it all the more interesting to know the factors and relationships behind changes in the dollar's value.
Talk to 10 economists about what influences the dollar, and you'll get 10 different ideas. However, you will hear such things as trade deficits, interest rates, investment flows and inflation creeping into the discussion repeatedly."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-91-95-moving-the-dollar-by-eric-sharp-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-91-95-moving-the-dollar-by-eric-sharp-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-91-95-moving-the-dollar-by-eric-sharp-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c03-avemat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:3 (96-100): The average maturity of money market funds and Eurodollar futures by Glenn Mancher"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The average maturity of money market funds and Eurodollar futures by Glenn Mancher
The high interest rate environment of the early 1980s resulted in great swings in the average maturity of money market funds (Figure 1). As the yield on short-term instruments dropped from 14-17% to 8%,\nfund managers extended the average maturity to a high of 51 days in summer 1980. At this point, a period of four to five months of shortening followed as the average maturity was reduced to a record low of 23 days in December 1980 through January 1981 (needless to say, rates had rocketed back up to 15-20%). From this low of 23 days in January 1981, a long-term trend of increasing average maturity began. By looking at Figure I, it is apparent that within this long-term trend of rising average maturities beginning in 1981, there were intermediate-term periods when fund managers shortened maturities.
For the first half of 1982, Eurodollar futures moved from 83.50 to just above 86.00 while the average maturity of money market funds held in a narrow 30- to 33-day range. Closer examination of both charts indicates that on dips to 30 days in the average maturity, Eurodollars tended to rally. However, when maturities were extended to 32-33 days, Eurodollars moved back toward the bottom of the range. The 30-day level on the average maturity chart was acting as support, while the 32- to 33-day area was resistance from January to July 1982. Then, in mid- to late July, fund managers extended maturities to 34 and 36 days in anticipation of lower interest rates. This extension preceded the breakout above 86.00 (14.00%) for Eurodollars in August."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-96-100-the-average-maturity-of-money-market-funds-and-eurodollar-futures-by-glenn-mancher-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-96-100-the-average-maturity-of-money-market-funds-and-eurodollar-futures-by-glenn-mancher-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-3-96-100-the-average-maturity-of-money-market-funds-and-eurodollar-futures-by-glenn-mancher-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-playin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (127-131): Playing copper by Eric L. Sharp"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Playing copper by Eric L. Sharp
Perhaps the best way to succeed in futures trading is to pick up early on major trends and stay with them for all they're worth. Copper went into a major bull market in early 1987, almost tripling in value from the start to the high. Here are two techniques that helped in interpreting and staying with the copper trend. None of these methods is practical without a computer and adequate software, because too much data and number crunching are involved to do it by hand.
Statistical analysis is one method by which trends can be interpreted and predicted. Markets oscillate over time around values affected by changing conditions such as inflation, interest rates, supply levels and demand and exchange rates. Prices may be influenced by such factors. Typically, however, the most important influences are represented by a short list. Sorting out which are the key factors can be approached with a statistical method called correlation analysis, a method by which the strength and nature of a relationship between two variables can be quantitatively established. In correlation analysis, the first step is to decide which variables may be important in determining the price of a particular item and then obtain the relevant data over a suitable time period.
Data can be in daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly form, but in practice, monthly averages are usually best. They appear to be the most favorable trade-off between avoiding meaningless volatility and providing timely information."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-127-131-playing-copper-by-eric-l-sharp-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-127-131-playing-copper-by-eric-l-sharp-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-127-131-playing-copper-by-eric-l-sharp-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-newindc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (132-133): A new indicator for the S&P stock index futures by Daniel E. Downing"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A new indicator for the S&P stock index futures by Daniel E. Downing
Little is new in the field of technical analysis. Even with a staff of seven analysts, my firm can take credit for developing only three entirely new technical tools for the markets. We spend most of our time rearranging existing technical indicators into new combinations. It is a \""new\"" combination of \""old\"" indicators that has proved to be a reliable indicator during the last six months for determining the intermediate-term trend for the Standard & Poor's stock index futures. For my purposes here, the intermediate-term trend refers to a period of four to six weeks.
The indicator, which is called the negative volume index, is constructed thus. First, determine whether the S&P future was up or down for the day. (Unchanged days we ignore.) When the future has a higher close than the previous day, measure from the absolute low of the day being examined to the close of the day. This first measurement is used in several types of technical analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-132-133-a-new-indicator-for-the-s-p-stock-index-futures-by-daniel-e-downing-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-132-133-a-new-indicator-for-the-s-p-stock-index-futures-by-daniel-e-downing-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-132-133-a-new-indicator-for-the-s-p-stock-index-futures-by-daniel-e-downing-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-correl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (134-136): Correlations of common stock indicators by Frank Tarkany"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Correlations of common stock indicators by Frank Tarkany
Not surprisingly, it turns out that certain stock indicators are highly correlated with each other and with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). There appear to be short but usable lags between the indicators and the underlying average. I investigated the cross and auto-correlations on more than 25 years of weekly data from 1964 to 1988 for the DJIA and these NYSE technical indicators:
Cumulative index of advancing minus declining issues (CADI)
Cumulative index of advancing minus declining volume (CADV)
Cumulative price Quotron index (CPQ)
I picked the technical indicators with large trading windows (that is, large non-random [NR], serially dependent [SD] lags). The formulas are listed in the related article \""Pertinent formulas\"" and, for this study, I used \""no-Saturday trading\"" Dow data, taking an average of each week's prices to calculate the indicators."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-134-136-correlations-of-common-stock-indicators-by-frank-tarkany-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-134-136-correlations-of-common-stock-indicators-by-frank-tarkany-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-134-136-correlations-of-common-stock-indicators-by-frank-tarkany-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-sidebc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (134-136): SIDEBAR: Correlating made easy"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Correlating made easy
To find the correlation between two technical indicators, first calculate the positive or negative change of the indicator. If you were testing with no \""lagging,\"" you'd then compare the first indicator's first change with the other indicator's first change. Utilizing the pencil and paper compartment technique outlined by Clifford Sherry in Stocks & Commodities, this comparison would be tallied in the appropriate ++, -+, +- or -- compartment. (The notations \""++,\"" \""-+\"" and so on refer to the four possible combinations of changes the two indicators show. If both have positive changes, a tally is made in the ++ compartment. If both fall, a tally is made in the -- compartment.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-134-136-sidebar-correlating-made-easy-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-134-136-sidebar-correlating-made-easy-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-134-136-sidebar-correlating-made-easy-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-sidebp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (134-136): SIDEBAR: Pertinent formulas"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Pertinent formulas
This sidebar provides the three formulas used in the article, \""Correlation of common stock indicators.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-134-136-sidebar-pertinent-formulas-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-134-136-sidebar-pertinent-formulas-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-134-136-sidebar-pertinent-formulas-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-plural-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (137-138): Plurality by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Plurality by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Plurality: Now there's an indicator that has been around for at least half a century. Analyst James Alphier claims it was invented by technical analyst pioneer Paul Dysart, who published a piece on the subject at least as early as 1937. Analyst Ralph Rotnem used it early in its history, while in recent years analyst Alan Shaw has found it to be useful and gave it its name.
The plurality index is based on the difference between advances and declines, regardless of sign. If advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange number 4,000 and declines number 3,000, the plurality is 1,000. If the reverse were true and declines exceeded advances by 1,000, the plurality would\nstill be 1,000. The index is a moving total, not an average of the plurality of the last 25 days, and it is updated daily.
Alan Shaw uses benchmarks of 6,000 and 12,000. If the index drops below 6,000, a sell warning is signaled. Shaw waits until the index turns back up, at which point the signal becomes a definite sell. If the index rises above 12,000, it gives a buy alert, at which point he waits until the index starts to drop, when it gives a definite buy signal. He reports that since 1981 all the signals have been successful, with two exceptions, in 1985 and 1986. (The 1986 error was quickly corrected.)
The reasoning behind the index is that there is usually complacency at the top of the bull market, but panic at the bottom of a bear market. John McGinley of Technical Trends comments that a bull market dies of exhaustion, with few selling or buying, while at the bottom everybody rushes in to get out at once. Unfortunately, my data bank is limited to weekly, not daily, data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-137-138-plurality-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-137-138-plurality-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-137-138-plurality-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-fault-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (139-141): Fault-prone options traders by Jerry Kopf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fault-prone options traders by Jerry Kopf
\""The propensity to gamble is always increased by a large prize vs. a small entry fee, no matter how poor\nthe true odds.\"" —Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway
Dreams are stronger than reality. This adage is proven daily by lottery ticket buyers who buck odds of 12 million-to-1, hoping to win life's great jackpot. Traders in stock options also make bets, but the nature of their betting is far different from plunking down $5 for a Quik Pik. Where the lottery is a game of pure chance, options are a game of skill and experience. Options players can stack the odds in their favor. The rub here is some very skilled doctors, TV production executives, computer software developers and national baking contest winners — many of whom earn six figures and are notable in their fields — manage to strike out as options players. They might as well be playing a game of chance.
What stops most public players from enjoying profitable expirations? Do they simply fail to learn the basics (for example: types of orders, nuances of exercise and assignment, implementing proven strategies)? Are standard trading rules violated or are poor money management skills the culprit? Do psychological hang-ups trip them? Is it the carelessness of not actually placing stop or contingent orders? Is it the inertia inflicted by back-to-back losses? Or the stubbornness of being wed to a fault-laden strategy?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-139-141-fault-prone-options-traders-by-jerry-kopf-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-139-141-fault-prone-options-traders-by-jerry-kopf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-139-141-fault-prone-options-traders-by-jerry-kopf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-tradgan-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (142-144): Trading with Gann lines by David Lamarr"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading with Gann lines by David Lamarr
Gann lines, although only a small part of W. D. Gann's methods, provide an effective, straightforward way of determining support and resistance areas and times when to expect a change in trend. They can be thought of as \""price/time\"" trendlines vs. the standard price-only trendlines many technical analysts use.
Gann strongly believed time was the major factor in determining when a change of trend could be expected. These Gann lines project the market's natural rhythm on a price chart and have a distinct advantage over price trendlines by providing assistance in anticipating market moves vs. a price-following system, such as trendlines."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-142-144-trading-with-gann-lines-by-david-lamarr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-142-144-trading-with-gann-lines-by-david-lamarr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-142-144-trading-with-gann-lines-by-david-lamarr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-sidebd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (145-151): SIDEBAR: Details of the Study."",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Details of the Study.
The trade timing, transaction costs and statistical tests used in the study."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-145-151-sidebar-details-of-the-study-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-145-151-sidebar-details-of-the-study-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-145-151-sidebar-details-of-the-study-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-techtra-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (145-151): Technically trading the ¥en by Thomas P. Drinka, Timothy L. Krehbiel, Stephen Ptasienski"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technically trading the ¥en by Thomas P. Drinka, Timothy L. Krehbiel, Stephen Ptasienski
Speculators and commercial hedgers who trade currency futures often use technical analysis to determine trading signals. We statistically tested 34 of these indicators to see which were profitable and free from such bias as auto-correlation when used to trade the International Money Market (IMM) yen contract. Of the 34 indicators in Figure 1,16 survived our testing. The indicators are used to exploit price trends or price volatility. The former, referred to as \""BS/SW,\"" usually involve buying strong markets and selling weak ones, while the latter use involves buying a weak market and selling a strong one and so are labeled \""BW/SS.\"" Of the 34 indicators, 28 are trend followers.
We tested each indicator with one to three parameters over a range of values. For example, accumulation/ distribution in Figure 1 has a \""short\"" parameter that was decremented from 98 to 52 by two-point steps and a \""long\"" parameter that was incremented from 2 to 48 by two-point steps. In all, these parameters generated 576 different combinations!
We used out-of-sample trading to get the best simulation of real-world results. We first simulated trading on a year's data using the nearby contracts. The simulator, Micro Vest's BackTrak, then chose the best parameters and traded them for the next succeeding quarter, which was not part of the year sampled. Then we moved everything up one quarter and repeated the process. In all, we calculated returns from March 2, 1978, to September 1, 1987."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-145-151-technically-trading-the-en-by-thomas-p-drinka-timothy-l-krehbiel-stephen-ptasienski-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-145-151-technically-trading-the-en-by-thomas-p-drinka-timothy-l-krehbiel-stephen-ptasienski-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-145-151-technically-trading-the-en-by-thomas-p-drinka-timothy-l-krehbiel-stephen-ptasienski-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-predm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (152-154): Predicting market order with the Delta phenomenon by J. Welles Wilder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Predicting market order with the Delta phenomenon by J. Welles Wilder
Does each market have an underlying order that makes it predictable?
The answer is yes. That order makes a riskless trading strategy possible.
The Delta phenomenon shows the underlying order of the market, and zero-coupon government bonds are the vehicles to buy and sell to take advantage of the predictable sequences. You can't lose because even if you bought the bonds at their exact 30-year high, you can hold them to maturity and collect about 10% interest on your money.
What is the Delta phenomenon? Every freely traded market has its own particular order, which can be calculated as far in the past or as far in the future as you may want to go. This order, which I call Delta, is relative only to time. Delta dates predict when the market highs and lows will occur, but it cannot predict how high or how low the market will be at these turning points.
The Delta order is applicable in five different time frames. For example, the shortest timeframe predicts, on average, two turning points per day. The longest time frame predicts, on average, about one turning point per year. As for strategy, sometime during the month that an arrow points upward, I buy, and sometime during the month that an arrow points downward, I sell."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-152-154-predicting-market-order-with-the-delta-phenomenon-by-j-welles-wilder-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-152-154-predicting-market-order-with-the-delta-phenomenon-by-j-welles-wilder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-152-154-predicting-market-order-with-the-delta-phenomenon-by-j-welles-wilder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-volat-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (155-157): Volatility analysis in tactical stock trading by Peter Eliason"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volatility analysis in tactical stock trading by Peter Eliason
Every stock, average and index has its own characteristic volatility range that holds the signals of impending price change. The challenge in technical analysis is to recognize and decipher these signals to determine which stocks, at what times, promise the most profitable trades.
Generally, stocks with less than 10% weekly volatility hold little risk. When weekly volatilities exceed 10%, a price change may be imminent. Trading volatility requires a familiarity with the volatility characteristics of individual stocks, averages and indices."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-155-157-volatility-analysis-in-tactical-stock-trading-by-peter-eliason-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-155-157-volatility-analysis-in-tactical-stock-trading-by-peter-eliason-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-155-157-volatility-analysis-in-tactical-stock-trading-by-peter-eliason-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-optima-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (158-162): Optimizing moving averages by Charles J. McGuinness"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Optimizing moving averages by Charles J. McGuinness
One of the first techniques you'll come across in almost any book on technical analysis is moving averages. Moving averages are amazingly handy in predicting the movement of securities. By themselves, they offer a simple means of generating reliable buy/sell signals—many people monitor a 200-day moving average to catch long-term trends. Moving averages can be used in conjunction with other indicators, helping to filter out the rapid buy-sell signals that minor fluctuations in price often generate. Perhaps the most alluring thing about moving averages is that they are easy to compute and easy to apply. Hardly a market timing indicator exists that doesn't incorporate them.
This simplicity can be deceptive when it is time to apply moving averages. A straightforward translation of a moving average algorithm into program code can produce an application that generates its results slowly. The first time I wrote a charting program I did nothing intricate in implementing the moving average subroutines; when I plotted the first moving average it was drawn across the screen at a snail's pace. It was so slow I assumed I had made some sort of drastic error in my coding! The problem was that the moving average algorithms on which I had based my code were designed to express the algorithms' concepts as simply as possible and designed without taking into account efficiency and real-world implementation issues.
If you use a lot of moving averages—for example, in a charting program—this slowness can limit your ability to perform the kind of analysis you want to do. Here are some techniques for producing fast and efficient moving average routines. Whether you're experimenting with some simple programs in BASIC or writing complex optimization programs in C, these techniques can help turn a sluggish number cruncher into a speedy tool."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-158-162-optimizing-moving-averages-by-charles-j-mcguinness-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-158-162-optimizing-moving-averages-by-charles-j-mcguinness-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-158-162-optimizing-moving-averages-by-charles-j-mcguinness-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-sidebma-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (158-162): SIDEBAR: How moving averages are computed"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: How moving averages are computed
Moving average are usually specified by two parameters. The first is the length of the moving average and is generally expressed in the same periodicity as the data. For example, if we have the daily price of the data, we might speak of a 10-day moving average. The second parameter is which data point's moving average we want to compute. For example, you might request the 30-day moving average for July 6.
Three moving average algorithms are in wide use: simple, linear and exponential. Each performs roughly the same goal of averaging several days (weeks, months and so forth) of data to eliminate minor\nfluctuations, and to extract the essence of the underlying trend. Each tries to perform this task in a slightly different way."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-158-162-sidebar-how-moving-averages-are-computed-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-158-162-sidebar-how-moving-averages-are-computed-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-158-162-sidebar-how-moving-averages-are-computed-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-sidebid-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (158-162): SIDEBAR: Integer data types"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Integer data types
Integer math gives the program a tremendous speed advantage over floating-point math on most computer systems, but it is not as easy to work with. Problems can arise with overflow, where a calculation yields a value too large to be represented in an integer. Overflow problems with moving averages are most likely to show up in long-period linear moving averages, where the total weighting can reach into the tens of thousands. Similarly, problems can occur when calculations produce results that are too small (for example, 0.5) to be held in an integer."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-158-162-sidebar-integer-data-types-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-158-162-sidebar-integer-data-types-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-158-162-sidebar-integer-data-types-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c04-profit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:4 (163-166): Profit mapping by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Profit mapping by John Ehlers
Optimization has been attacked by many technicians — and rightfully so — because peaking profit is virtually the same as curve fitting to back data. Used in this fashion, optimization can produce startling track records and still be useless for future trading. Market characteristics do change, however, and technical traders need a tool to help them adjust their preferred techniques to the changing market to improve profitability. Calculating the profit at any combination of parameters and making a three-dimensional map of the result is such a tool.
Common technical trading techniques use combinations of parameters to model market activity. The parameters are constructed so their variation has some meaning to the trader. An example of a trading technique is based on the crossing of two moving averages with different periods. The trading rule for\nthis technique might be \""Buy when the shorter moving average crosses the longer moving average from bottom to top and sell when it crosses from top to bottom.\"" In this case, the parameters describing the market are the periods of the two moving averages.
If the markets are changing, it makes sense that the parameters of the models also change. The dual moving average technique would produce higher profits if the two parameters were continuously adjusted. Conventional optimization would make an exhaustive search of all parameter combinations to find those that return maximum profits—exactly the curve fitting to avoid."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-163-166-profit-mapping-by-john-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-163-166-profit-mapping-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-4-163-166-profit-mapping-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-determ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (169-173): Determining stock value from price and earnings by Paul T. Holliday"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Determining stock value from price and earnings by Paul T. Holliday
The value of stocks and stock indices are generally derived from such fundamentals as earnings and return on investment. The value that investors place on a stock or stock index may also be found by examining historical data. Value is a function of fundamental parameters such as earnings and interest rates, but fluctuations around the nominal value occur because investors' expectations of future earnings may be optimistic or pessimistic, thus driving the stock price above or below that nominal value.
Just because a relationship is established between price, earnings and interest rates, however, no cause and effect has been proved. A relationship between stock prices and skirt hemlines could be established that might show considerable correlation, but no one could seriously consider this as a causal relationship. However, the relationship between price, earnings and interest rates does coincide with general expectations of how stock prices move."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-169-173-determining-stock-value-from-price-and-earnings-by-paul-t-holliday-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-169-173-determining-stock-value-from-price-and-earnings-by-paul-t-holliday-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-169-173-determining-stock-value-from-price-and-earnings-by-paul-t-holliday-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-sidebr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (169-173): SIDEBAR: Relevant formulas"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Relevant formulas
Formulas are given for nominal price, earnings average, effective interest rate, and divergence as used in the article \""Determining stock value from price and earnings\"" by Paul T. Holliday"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-169-173-sidebar-relevant-formulas-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-169-173-sidebar-relevant-formulas-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-169-173-sidebar-relevant-formulas-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-tradth-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (174-177): Trading threshold by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading threshold by John Ehlers
In radar, signal-to-noise ratio is used to measure the quality of target detection. In trading, this simple concept can be used to hit our profit targets better. We can improve our trading profitability if trading decisions are deferred until the signal-to-noise ratio is high. The charts can be viewed as noisy channels in which the daily range and very short-term day-to-day variations are the \""noise.\"" The longer-term variations mark the channel envelope.
The trader's profitability can be enhanced if he waits for conditions in which the peak-to-peak variation of the channel envelope exceeds four times the width of the \""noise band.\"" Noise as classically defined is energy (in our case, price activity) that carries no information. Complete randomness has no information and, therefore, random events are noisy. When noise is completely random, all frequencies are present.
This is called \""white noise\"" because the picture of the uniform frequency distribution resembles snow. White noise has a Gaussian, or normal, amplitude probability distribution, which is the familiar bell-shaped curve that describes many statistical cases, such as a given population's IQ distribution. In the same way very few people have exceptionally high IQs, the amplitude of white noise can be very large but occur very seldom."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-174-177-trading-threshold-by-john-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-174-177-trading-threshold-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-174-177-trading-threshold-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-quant-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (178-181): Quantifying pain via drawdown size by Richard Harrison"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quantifying pain via drawdown size by Richard Harrison
Most investors want the greatest return on their investment as long as their pain threshold is not exceeded along the way. The amount of pain an investor experiences depends not only on the size of drawdowns, but also on how long the drawdowns last.
An investor can quantify both pain components of drawdown on an equity vs. time plot by measuring the area of the drawdown (DA). DA is the sum of the drawdown percentages for each time period for the duration of the drawdown. Summing the individual DAs results in the total drawdown area (TDA), which is an indication of the amount of pain an investor would have experienced over the evaluated time period. An investor's experience of pain depends on how he or she perceives the individual and combined threats of percentage drawdown and its duration. The curves for percentage and duration are not necessarily the same. It is possible for an investor to be nonlinear about percentage drawdown and linear about its duration, or vice versa. Some investors have defined limits on the amount of pain they are willing to experience.
These perceptions of threat, or pain, can be graphed and are sometimes referred to as risk-aversion curves. An investor who is immune to the percentage or duration of a drawdown is represented by curve A in Figure 2. I've found this condition is very rare and short-lived."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-178-181-quantifying-pain-via-drawdown-size-by-richard-harrison-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-178-181-quantifying-pain-via-drawdown-size-by-richard-harrison-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-178-181-quantifying-pain-via-drawdown-size-by-richard-harrison-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-ellwav-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (182-184): Elliott wave: Fact or fiction? by F. David Minbashian"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Elliott wave: Fact or fiction? by F. David Minbashian
Using concepts from the elegant new science of chaotic dynamics, I was writing an essay to show as simply as I could arguing how commodity and stock prices follow a path of motion without any patterns. As I arrived at my conclusion, I could almost hear the hue and cry of disagreement from avid followers of R. N. Elliott only too eager to show me the vast profits they have amassed using his theory, for the Elliott wave principle is nothing if not a grand pattern by which prices are supposed to unfold. If you are one of those followers, don't stop reading yet. I do have something positive to say about your theory.
A few years ago I embarked on the task of learning the theory. There was no denying the fact that you could see and count the waves in chart after chart. I was so taken by the idea that I went around saying, \""How do I love thee? Let me count the waves.\"" When it came to applying my newly acquired skills, things did not turn out as well. At first, I thought it was my lack of experience. Wrong or right, though, it was a lot of fun trying. I looked forward to following prices to see what kind of count would emerge. Was a 3 of 3 beginning or was it the \""x\"" in an abc-x-abc formation? It got so bad that I had to warn myself and others against \""the disease of the wave count\"" where nothing matters but to carry a count to its conclusion."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-182-184-elliott-wave-fact-or-fiction-by-f-david-minbashian-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-182-184-elliott-wave-fact-or-fiction-by-f-david-minbashian-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-182-184-elliott-wave-fact-or-fiction-by-f-david-minbashian-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-simpvar-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (185-186): A simple variation of the moving average by Peter Aan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A simple variation of the moving average by Peter Aan
General description: The Moving Average Direction System is trend-following; always in the market.
Originator: Peter Aan
Advantages: Profits from most significant trends; entry technique eliminates some false signals.
Disadvantages: Must wait for close for entry signals; optimal stops somewhat loose for small traders; whipsaw losses in sideways markets.
Rules and formulas: Uses a simple moving average (MA) of closing prices. To compute a 30-day MA, for instance, total up the closing prices for the most recent 30 days and divide that total by 30. Repeat that process every day, using only the most recent 30 days for each calculation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-185-186-a-simple-variation-of-the-moving-average-by-peter-aan-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-185-186-a-simple-variation-of-the-moving-average-by-peter-aan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-185-186-a-simple-variation-of-the-moving-average-by-peter-aan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-easem-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (187-190): Ease of movement by Richard W. Arms Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Ease of movement by Richard W. Arms Jr.
On occasion it seems as though a stock or commodity must have discovered anti-gravity. It moves upward with little effort. Such a move is characterized by increasing volume but similarly increasing price spread on the upside, and the intervening pullbacks entail lighter volume and tighter price spreads.
When such a stock or commodity is on the move there can be little trouble recognizing its strength. To short it at such a time can be hazardous to one's financial health! At other times, however, moving a stock higher is much like Sisyphus trying to roll his boulder up a hill. Every attempt is met with heavy resistance. Such action is easily recognized if one pays attention not only to price action but volume. Each advance is met by resistance, causing narrow trading ranges on comparatively heavy volume, while each decline is done on relatively light volume compared with the trading range. Note that the key word is \""comparative.\"" Volume is not the whole story. It must be viewed\nin relation to trading range.
What better way is there than Equivolume charting to view the relationship? This method of charting places volume rather than time on the horizontal axis, so that each day is represented by a box rather than by a line as in the traditional bar-charting technique. The shape of the box generated is a visual representation of the relationship between price range and volume. Tall, thin rectangles represent large movement on comparatively light volume, while short wide boxes represent small price movement compared to volume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-187-190-ease-of-movement-by-richard-w-arms-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-187-190-ease-of-movement-by-richard-w-arms-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-187-190-ease-of-movement-by-richard-w-arms-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-findrel-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (191-191): Finding reliable trading strategies (revisited) by Thomas P. Drinka"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Finding reliable trading strategies (revisited) by Thomas P. Drinka
With the proliferation of microcomputers and analytical software, speculators and commercial traders routinely conduct research to evaluate the potential performance of trading strategies. These investors optimize their technical indicators by evaluating the trading performance of different parameter sets for each indicator.
\""Unfortunately,\"" according to system programmer Steve Kille, \""most technicians are simply searching for a set of rules which produce the highest level of profits over historical data and then using these same rules to make trading decisions. The real focus of any research should not be the level of profits,'' Kille adds, \""but the degree of reliability the system is likely to maintain during actual trading.\""
Thus, analysts should not only identify the \""best\"" trading strategy for a historical time period but also test that optimal strategy in a subsequent period."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-191-191-finding-reliable-trading-strategies-revisited-by-thomas-p-drinka-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-191-191-finding-reliable-trading-strategies-revisited-by-thomas-p-drinka-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-191-191-finding-reliable-trading-strategies-revisited-by-thomas-p-drinka-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-tradfiv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (192-194): Trading five-wave reversals Part 2 by Dan A. Dimock"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading five-wave reversals Part 2 by Dan A. Dimock
In \""Trading five-wave reversals\"" (Stocks & Commodities, January 1990), I examined the one place in the market cycle where optimal entry into a win-win situation can occur: at the end of any wave C that has subdivided into five lesser waves of sufficient price range. I also mentioned a technique that can be used to find it. The discussion ended with the three wave classifications (1, B and X) that can follow these optimum entry points within the guidelines of the wave principle, reasoning that a potentially profitable trade with minimal risk is in the offing no matter which track the market picks.
As seen in Figure 1, the more profitable wave to enter is wave 1 of waves I, III or V. However, the possibility that corrective waves B or X could occur ahead of the major change in trend is what first deserves our attention. For example, will a 5-3-5 (zigzag):
• Conclude a corrective pattern with wave X to follow?
• Conclude an entire correction (so we can get into the next wave)? or
• Become wave A of a flat within the correction—with more correction still to come?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-192-194-trading-five-wave-reversals-part-2-by-dan-a-dimock-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-192-194-trading-five-wave-reversals-part-2-by-dan-a-dimock-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-192-194-trading-five-wave-reversals-part-2-by-dan-a-dimock-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-bcompl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (195-196): %B complements on-balance volume by Joseph Barics"",""caption-linebreaks"":""%B complements on-balance volume by Joseph Barics
Williams' on-balance volume, or WAD, by itself isn't always a clear indicator of a bottom. To better observe supply and demand, I combine WAD with the percentage of buying for the day, or %B, on a high-low-close graph. Unlike WAD, %B is calculated only from price data, and so, often indicates an imminent price turnaround or other price actions following a price minimum."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-195-196-b-complements-on-balance-volume-by-joseph-barics-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-195-196-b-complements-on-balance-volume-by-joseph-barics-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-195-196-b-complements-on-balance-volume-by-joseph-barics-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-newhi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (197-198): New high and new low indicators by Mike Burk"",""caption-linebreaks"":""New high and new low indicators by Mike Burk
I use new high and new low indicators to help define cycles. My new high and new low indicators, which I developed with a computer and represent graphically, are exponential moving averages of the daily new highs and lows of the New York Stock Exchange.
These indicators have specific uses. For example, the new high indicator is useful for confirming upside moves but is useless on downside moves. However, the new low indicator is the single best indicator I have found for defining cycles.
Below are the definitions of the terms I use to discuss these indicators:
• Confirmation — Both a price index/average and an indicator reach a new high or new low for the period in question. Figure 1 is a good example of consecutive new high confirmations on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
• Non-confirmation — A price index/average reaches a new high or a new low for the period and the indicator does not. Confirmations imply no reversal in prices, while non-confirmations suggest a price reversal.
• Period –– The number of trading days shown on a chart. Some of these indicators are period-sensitive — that is, with a period longer or shorter than that recommended, the indicator may be confusing or even misleading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-197-198-new-high-and-new-low-indicators-by-mike-burk-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-197-198-new-high-and-new-low-indicators-by-mike-burk-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-197-198-new-high-and-new-low-indicators-by-mike-burk-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-commit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (199-204): Commitments of Traders as a sentiment indicator By Stephen E. Briese"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Commitments of Traders as a sentiment indicator By Stephen E. Briese
In the past, conventional market sentiment indicators have been criticized for deficiencies such as the delay involved in reading market letters, weighing their content, estimating their influence on public traders and publishing the results. Also criticized has been the lack of precision (and potential conflict) in polling short-term investors such as pit traders and in projecting public trader market positions from a poll of market gurus, especially given the growing reliance on personal computers.
I designed the Commitments of Traders (C.O.T.) Index to address some of these deficiencies. Because an accurate survey necessitates some time delay, I have concentrated on the longest time frame trader — the large commercial hedger. These market insiders are required to report their actual market positions daily to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Using actual market positions eliminates the margin of error inherent in the polling process and accounts for traders who don't follow trading advisors. Of course there are tradeoffs but, as will be shown, these are not fatal. The CFTC reports actual trader positions only once a month. While this frequency is less than optimum, the quality of the data more than compensates for this inconvenience."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-199-204-commitments-of-traders-as-a-sentiment-indicator-by-stephen-e-briese-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-199-204-commitments-of-traders-as-a-sentiment-indicator-by-stephen-e-briese-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-199-204-commitments-of-traders-as-a-sentiment-indicator-by-stephen-e-briese-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c05-stockab-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:5 (204-205): Stocks above moving averages by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stocks above moving averages by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT
The percentage of stocks above their moving averages has been tracked for a number of years by Investor's Intelligence, a weekly report that includes the number of New York Stock Exchange issues above their 10-week and 30-week moving averages.
How useful are these figures? I calculated the standard deviations over the past 10 years. As benchmarks, I tried two-thirds of a standard deviation above and below the mean and a full standard deviation. Using these benchmarks to determine which figures were noticeably low or high, I checked their success in forecasting the direction of the market during the next week, the next five weeks, the next 13 weeks, the next 26 weeks and during the next year.
The results didn't show significant success over the short term. The only statistically significant scores for the percentage over 10 weeks were in forecasting the direction over the next 26 weeks. If the number above one standard deviation is considered bullish and the below minus one standard deviation is considered bearish, the indicator was right 61% of the time, or 3-to-2 odds. This isn't startling, but the chi square test did indicate significance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-204-205-stocks-above-moving-averages-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-204-205-stocks-above-moving-averages-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-5-204-205-stocks-above-moving-averages-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-overlay-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (207-211): The overlay profile for current market analysis by Donald L. Jones and Christopher J. Young"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The overlay profile for current market analysis by Donald L. Jones and Christopher J. Young
Market analysis seeks to determine the condition of the market because the trader who knows whether a market is trending, bracketing or in transition is better able to make an intelligent trading decision. Historically, technicians have studied market conditions using a combination of fundamentals, chart analysis and numerical formulas such as moving averages. The problem with the latter, though, has been that while seeking to average a number of trading days to smooth out the random market fluctuations (noise), moving averages introduce lag, an undesirable side effect.
We have developed a new graphic analysis technique based on value that promises to handle the noise problem without introducing lag. Called overlay methodology, this technique has four parts: The overlay profile, composed of linear additions of the Chicago Board of Trade's (CBOT) Market Profiles; the rotation profile, which is a day-to-day price profile; the rotation index, which numerically measures price rotation, and the quadrant of close, a second numeric measure that notes where in the price range the market closed.
Together, these four tools alert the trader to trending or bracketing markets and, if bracketing, identify the bracket limits They also identify congestion regions, pauses within trends and tendencies toward a change in market condition. These techniques apply to all auction-based markets. They may be used to detect trend onset by position traders, and by day traders to keep their trades with the trend or properly oriented within a bracket."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-207-211-the-overlay-profile-for-current-market-analysis-by-donald-l-jones-and-christopher-j-young-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-207-211-the-overlay-profile-for-current-market-analysis-by-donald-l-jones-and-christopher-j-young-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-207-211-the-overlay-profile-for-current-market-analysis-by-donald-l-jones-and-christopher-j-young-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-cyc89-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (212-215): 1989 cycles by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""1989 cycles by John F. Ehlers
Cycle activity in 1989 was substantially higher than in 1988, and some role reversals in cycle personalities appear to have occurred relative to the previous year. To measure and examine 1989 cycle activity, I used 12 perpetual futures contracts as data for the cycle measurements. These 12 contracts were continuations of the same perpetual contracts used for comparisons to 1988 cycle performance. The short-term cycles were measured using the MESA computer program. Valid cycles are reported when the \""cycle content\"" (signal-to-noise ratio) exceeds a 6 deciBel (dB) threshold. A deciBel is a logarithmic measure of power, where the ratio doubles for each 3 dB increase. Thus, the 6 dB threshold is placed where the measured cycle power is four times the power of the noise in the data. Research and experience have shown that cycle strengths of this magnitude and stronger are suitable for trading.
The data measured over the year are shown in histograms for each of the 12 contracts. Each histogram displays how many times a 12-day cycle occurred over the year, how many times a 13-day cycle appeared, and so on. The cycle personality revealed by such a display should have an envelope shaped like the conventional Gaussian (bell-shaped) distribution curve, which would therefore have its peak at the predominant cycle personality. This is the statistical mean. The width of the bell would be a measure of the departure from the dominant cycle personality. Statisticians call the half-width (one side of the distribution) of the bell curve the variance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-212-215-1989-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-212-215-1989-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-212-215-1989-cycles-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-avoid-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (216-217): Avoid the call-writing hazard by Jerry Kopf"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Avoid the call-writing hazard by Jerry Kopf
An option may sometimes be a good buy. Other times it may be a good sale. Sometimes you should buy long term, sell near term. Sometimes the opposite should be done. To participate in the market without the ability or flexibility to use different option strategies that address different market conditions is bound to cost money in the long run. — Jim Piper
A gentleman from Detroit called recently to find out the feasibility of squeezing a bit more income from a $600,000 portfolio of long-held common stocks. As its trustee he was pleased with each stock's growth but dissatisfied with the average dividend income of about 4%. He felt strongly that the beneficiaries of this trust should be getting a greater yield and wondered if writing call options — as these were all optionable stocks — was the answer.
The trust held shares in Texaco, Sears, IBM, DuPont, Syntex, Procter and Gamble and other blue chips. Conventional wisdom dictates that more income would accrue if calls were written on a regular basis. In fact, the covered write is the standard fare offered by the average retail stockbroker. I pointed out that such a simple writing program was really an ointment with three flies."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-216-217-avoid-the-call-writing-hazard-by-jerry-kopf-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-216-217-avoid-the-call-writing-hazard-by-jerry-kopf-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-216-217-avoid-the-call-writing-hazard-by-jerry-kopf-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-implied-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (218-221): Implied economic forecasts by Dan DiBartolomeo"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Implied economic forecasts by Dan DiBartolomeo
Investors rely on a variety of methodologies in constructing their portfolios. Some investors would classify themselves as fundamentally oriented, while others use technical analysis. Relatively few would claim to select securities or construct portfolios on the basis of economic forecasts. Most market participants have the attitude that even top economists have little ability to forecast future macroeconomic developments with any consistency. Further, they are of the opinion their own ability to forecast economic events accurately is even less trustworthy. On the other hand, major brokerage firms and banks have at least one economist on staff and many institutions use economic forecasts in making asset allocation decisions (stocks vs. bonds vs. cash).
All agree, however, that macroeconomic effects influence returns on individual stocks. That oil prices affect oil and airline stocks comes as no surprise. That interest rates affect home construction is equally self-evident. Studies confirm that particular macroeconomic forces influence stock price movements and that some factors influence some stocks more than others. In that a stock or a portfolio of stocks is sensitive to a known economic factor, that sensitivity can be considered a risk. Even though we cannot predict movements in oil prices, we know that some stocks are positively influenced by oil price increases (oil stocks) while other stocks are negatively affected (airlines, utilities, plastics). By having a portfolio significantly sensitive to a macroeconomic factor, we are taking risks that may or may not be justifiable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-218-221-implied-economic-forecasts-by-dan-dibartolomeo-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-218-221-implied-economic-forecasts-by-dan-dibartolomeo-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-218-221-implied-economic-forecasts-by-dan-dibartolomeo-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-pricep-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (222-224): Price patterns in soybeans by Toby Crabel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price patterns in soybeans by Toby Crabel
In my search to determine whether price patterns signal the next day's market direction, I have tested all combinations of four closing prices followed by either a higher or lower open the day after the last close. I used the soybean market between 1970 and 1988 and studied 32 patterns based on open, high, low and close. The only criterion to determine the direction of the next day's trade was gross profits.
The five-day patterns in Figure 1 are symbolized by a + for an up closing relative to the previous day and a - for a down closing, with the exception of the last symbol in the pattern, which is the open and the point of entry for the day of the trade. For example, pattern 30 starts on day 1 with a lower close than the previous day (-). Day 2 has a lower close than day 1 (-). Day 3 has a lower close than day 2 (-). Day 4 has a higher close than day 3 (+). Day 5's open is lower than day 4's close (-). A sale is assumed and entry is taken on day 5's open with trade exit on day 5's close."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-222-224-price-patterns-in-soybeans-by-toby-crabel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-222-224-price-patterns-in-soybeans-by-toby-crabel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-222-224-price-patterns-in-soybeans-by-toby-crabel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-arether-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (225-227): Are there gaps in your thinking? by Richard W. Arms Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are there gaps in your thinking? by Richard W. Arms Jr.
Usually in the use of technical analysis we are concerned with what happened and how it happened in order to predict what will happen. But there are times when what didn't happen can be as important as what did happen. Consider the stock that looked ready to break out into new high ground: It approached the old highs and then died. The fact that it refused to go above the old resistance was a very important non-message. Then there was the stock that was expected to find support at the same level that it had held three times before, but instead, volume got heavier and the price dropped below the old trading range decisively. Again, what didn't happen was very important and may have been signaling an opportunity to make money with a short position.
One of the most important non-events in any market is a gap — an area in which a stock did not trade. If there are no gaps in your thinking you may be ignoring a very profitable opportunity! This, of course, calls for a thorough understanding of gaps and how they come into play. A gap occurs when a stock or commodity skips a series of prices from one day to the next, leaving a price range in which the stock was not traded. The move that produces the gap can be either up or down. The assumption is that something happened during the time the market was closed that affected public thinking to the extent that the stock was revalued."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-225-227-are-there-gaps-in-your-thinking-by-richard-w-arms-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-225-227-are-there-gaps-in-your-thinking-by-richard-w-arms-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-225-227-are-there-gaps-in-your-thinking-by-richard-w-arms-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-newhi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (228-229): New highs/new lows by Arthur A. Merrill, C. M. T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""New highs/new lows by Arthur A. Merrill, C. M. T.
Each day the number of stocks making new highs and the number making new lows are reported in the financial press. Are these statistics useful? To find out whether they were, I constructed an index of new highs/new lows by calculating the percentage of new highs made over the preceding 10 days to the sum of new highs and new lows in the same 10 days:
100(10- day total highs) / 10- day total new highs and lows
I tested the index with two sets of benchmarks: two-thirds of a standard deviation above and below the mean, and a full standard deviation above and below the mean. Data points exceeding these benchmarks were considered unusually high or low and were tested over a 10-year period.
Then I counted the number of times the indicator successfully called the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over the next week, the next five, 13 and 26 weeks and the next year. This test provided 10 batting averages: five for the two-thirds standard deviation benchmarks and five for the full standard deviation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-228-229-new-highs-new-lows-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-228-229-new-highs-new-lows-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-228-229-new-highs-new-lows-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-spec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (230-233): Speculating in vertical spreads by Bradley J. Horn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Speculating in vertical spreads by Bradley J. Horn
Many gasoline traders are familiar with the fundamentals of spread trading with New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) energy futures. Far fewer, however, are able to recognize opportunities in option spreads, for good reason: The trader entering an options market for the first time may find himself subject to \""contract shock,\"" for unlike the futures trader, whose spread choices are limited to 15 contracts, the options trader must deal with a bewildering assortment of contracts, each with its own price dynamics.
Spread traders will find that the limited risk and flexibility in options trading can be more responsive to their needs than only trading in futures. The innovative traders and risk managers can use spreads by utilizing gasoline options to achieve attractive returns and hedge protection at low cost. At the same time, an options spread can be used to reflect different expectations through varying market conditions, thereby enabling traders to fine tune their market response. One strategy that provides such flexibility is known as the vertical spread.
A vertical spread consists of one long option and one short option, where both legs of the spread are of the same type (that is, both calls or both puts) and expire simultaneously. Each leg differs only by the strike price of the individual option."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-230-233-speculating-in-vertical-spreads-by-bradley-j-horn-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-230-233-speculating-in-vertical-spreads-by-bradley-j-horn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-230-233-speculating-in-vertical-spreads-by-bradley-j-horn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-confess-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (234-235): Confessions of a technical heretic by Grant Noble"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Confessions of a technical heretic by Grant Noble
Recently, I chatted with someone who runs a fairly well-known advisory service. He mentioned that one client tested more than 700 computerized systems and came to the conclusion that some worked well in certain markets, but none worked in all markets. In this day of megabytes and optimization, few want to go to the trouble of testing that many systems. But the overwhelming majority of technicians would agree that no single method exists to unlock the door to trading heaven. However, these same technicians also devoutly believe a combination of mechanical methods (plus a few \""discoveries\"") will do the trick.
A vast industry of books and software caters to this viewpoint. Twenty years ago, any self-respecting firm would have dismissed stochastics, Gann angles and so forth as so much mumbo-jumbo. Today, you can count the fundamentalist publications on your fingers. The pendulum has swung. This fascination with all things technical is as wrong as the contempt it suffered 20 years ago.
Furthermore, we are reaching the limits of what is commonly understood as technical analysis. Without a fresh approach, technicians are doomed to perpetual frustration."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-234-235-confessions-of-a-technical-heretic-by-grant-noble-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-234-235-confessions-of-a-technical-heretic-by-grant-noble-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-234-235-confessions-of-a-technical-heretic-by-grant-noble-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-option-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (236-239): Options ratios for sentiment by James P. Martin"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Options ratios for sentiment by James P. Martin
As options activity on equity indices and commodity futures has soared in the past few years, more and more market analysts have relied on options ratios as indicators of market sentiment and contrary opinion. Until recently most analysts looked only at the volume of calls and puts. Here we go a step further, examining the simultaneous changes in options volume and open interest. By studying these changes, we may look deeper into options players' true directional biases.
Before discussing the significance of analyzing option open interest with volume, first we must clear up a minor semantic issue. Most analysts compute the ratio of puts divided by calls (Stan Weinstein is a notable exception), but I have always computed calls divided by puts . My rationale for doing so is along the lines of high prices = high enthusiasm = high call/put ratios = high danger and conversely, low prices = low enthusiasm (high pessimism) = low call/put ratios = low risk. Also, I have always seen calls listed before puts; hence, computer data entry is facilitated by listing calls first."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-236-239-options-ratios-for-sentiment-by-james-p-martin-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-236-239-options-ratios-for-sentiment-by-james-p-martin-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-236-239-options-ratios-for-sentiment-by-james-p-martin-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c06-basicp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:6 (240-243): BASIC programming for technical analysis by Steve Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""BASIC programming for technical analysis by Steve Notis
I decided recently to start to program some of my own software after writing for so long about everyone else's. Once I got going, I discovered that programming is not as difficult as I'd anticipated. Anyone comfortable getting around his or her hard disk with DOS and perhaps writing \""batch\"" and \""config.sys\"" files can learn to do a surprising amount of programming in a very short time.
For readers who want to gain new skills but hesitate to take the plunge, this article, the first of a series, will be a chronicle of my adventures as a novice, struggling to get down the rudiments of programming as\nit applies to technical analysis. Even if you're an experienced programmer, I'll be presenting some technical analysis routines that you may find useful. For those readers who have little or no programming experience, perhaps I'll shed light on a subject that often seems mystifying — but shouldn't be."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-240-243-basic-programming-for-technical-analysis-by-steve-notis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-240-243-basic-programming-for-technical-analysis-by-steve-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-6-240-243-basic-programming-for-technical-analysis-by-steve-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-short-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (245-247): A Short-Term Buy Signal For The DJIA by John Toombs"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Short-Term Buy Signal For The DJIA by John Toombs
Buying the first retreat in prices following a strong move up in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is often profitable. Three questions are involved in doing so, however. What constitutes a \""strong move up\""? Then should you buy? When should you close the position?
All three questions can be answered by using a slow version of the 20-day stochastic oscillator. Since September 1984 there have been 20 signals, almost four a year. Nineteen have been winners and only one a loser.
The stochastic oscillator, with its scale of zero to 100%, shows whether closing prices have been near the upper or the lower limits of the range of highs and lows for a predetermined period of time, in this case 20 trading days. The 20-day raw value locates the position of the last close of the DJIA within the range — lowest low to highest high — during the last 20 trading days."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-245-247-a-short-term-buy-signal-for-the-djia-by-john-toombs-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-245-247-a-short-term-buy-signal-for-the-djia-by-john-toombs-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-245-247-a-short-term-buy-signal-for-the-djia-by-john-toombs-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-absolut-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (248-250): Absolute Tick Volume by Charles F. Wright"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Absolute Tick Volume by Charles F. Wright
Volume is one of the major tools used in technical analysis. The volume of a particular day or intraday bar is used as a gauge for activity during the time period. Trading judgments are based on traders' interpretation of that volume number. Conventional volume analysis centers around two points: First, higher volume is beneficial to the trend — higher volume confirms the move while lower volume makes the move suspect, and second, the importance of the bar volume lies in its relation to the volume of the previous bar. Since almost all technical analysis centers around this assumption — comparing today's number with yesterday's — it comes as no surprise that the same assumption is used for volume.
The STAD Research Team, which is a small group that brainstorms for new ideas to be tested in System Trading and Development newsletter, assumes that conventional indicators used in common ways will not work well. If they did, trading would be an easy way to make a living. The group tries to use old indicators in new ways, testing the new ideas with System Writer Plus. Rather than compare today's number with yesterday's, STAD has been exploring other ways to look at volume. One of the more promising concepts is using absolute volume rather than comparative volume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-248-250-absolute-tick-volume-by-charles-f-wright-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-248-250-absolute-tick-volume-by-charles-f-wright-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-248-250-absolute-tick-volume-by-charles-f-wright-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-newmark-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (251-251): A New Market Index by Dan Downing"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A New Market Index by Dan Downing
Technicians are always looking for leading indices and indicators. We continually search for tools that will give us some advanced warning of the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or the Options Exchange index (OEX 100). More than a year ago, the research team at my firm, Downing & Associates, and I combined four existing equity indices to make a new index, the mixture index. We have found this new index quite helpful in forecasting the intermediate-term trend of equity markets.
The four indices we use to build the mixture index are the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), the NASDAQ bank and insurance indices and the New York Stock Exchange Financial Index. We chose these four because they seem to lead the markets up and down in the intermediate term (which we define as an eight-week period). All four of these indices are listed each week in Barron's.
The mixture index can be constructed using daily or weekly prices. The results presented in this article are based on weekly figures. The formula for the mixture index is basically an average of the four indices adjusted to give them somewhat equal weighting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-251-251-a-new-market-index-by-dan-downing-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-251-251-a-new-market-index-by-dan-downing-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-251-251-a-new-market-index-by-dan-downing-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-janbaro-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (252-254): The January Barometer: Myth And Reality by Jay Kaeppel"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The January Barometer: Myth And Reality by Jay Kaeppel
Some claim the January Barometer is a great forecasting tool, while others say it is totally without value. As usual, the truth lies somewhere in between.
First, let's define exactly what the January Barometer is. Originally, the theory behind the January Barometer was that \""as January goes, so goes the year.\"" If the market closed January with a gain, the market should close that year with a gain. Conversely, if January was down, then the year as a whole should be down. For our purpose of attempting to use the January Barometer as an actual investing tool, let us change the definition slightly to read, \""As January goes, so goes the rest of the year.\"" For the barometer's signal to be considered correct, if the market rises in January, the market also would have to rise higher between the end of January and the end of the year. Likewise, if January is down, then the period between the end of January and the end of the year would have to be down for the January Barometer to be considered as having given a correct signal.
This adjustment is important for the following reason: If the market rose 6% in January but only 5% for the year, the original rule would say that the January Barometer was correct because the market was up in January and up for the year, even though prices actually declined between the end of January and the end of December."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-252-254-the-january-barometer-myth-and-reality-by-jay-kaeppel-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-252-254-the-january-barometer-myth-and-reality-by-jay-kaeppel-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-252-254-the-january-barometer-myth-and-reality-by-jay-kaeppel-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-tissea-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (255-256): 'Tis The Season by Bob Kargenian"",""caption-linebreaks"":""'Tis The Season by Bob Kargenian
The seasonal tendencies of the stock market have been the subject of extensive research. The likes of Yale Hirsch, Arthur A. Merrill, Martin Zweig and Norman Fosback — all noted technical analysts — have explored this topic, and most have conducted ongoing studies. My interest lies in what has happened to seasonal tendencies since the advent of stock-index futures and whether they can still be profitably exploited by investors and traders.
Essentially, there are six types of seasonal tendencies — days of the week; months; month-end; holidays; the Presidential cycle, and, finally, the year-end tax selling that is tied in with the \""January effect.\"" Holidays and month-end tendencies appear to offer the most viable strategies for profiting from index futures.
These strategies are about as simple as they can be. For holidays, you would purchase index futures on the close, two days prior to the holiday. Sell the futures on the close prior to the holiday, with the exception of Thanksgiving and Christmas, when you sell on the close the day after the holiday. For the month-end, purchase futures each month on the close of the day prior to the last trading day of the month, hold them for five days and then sell on the close of the fourth trading day of the new month."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-255-256-tis-the-season-by-bob-kargenian-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-255-256-tis-the-season-by-bob-kargenian-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-255-256-tis-the-season-by-bob-kargenian-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-basicp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (257-259): Basic Programming For Technical Analysis, part 2 by Steve Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Basic Programming For Technical Analysis, part 2 by Steve Notis
Last month I explained the advantages of doing some of your own programming for technical analysis. I showed you a program called MSTRLST, which allows you to see the real names of CompuTrac and MetaStock files. In addition, I wrote about Microsoft QuickBASIC as my choice for a beginner's programming language. Since then, I have read an article in Byte by William Gates, founder of Microsoft\nand coauthor of the first BASIC interpreter for the IBM personal computer. The article was occasioned by BASIC's 25th birthday, and reading it confirmed my suspicion that BASIC is a very underrated language.
According to Gates, BASIC is coming on stronger than ever. The language has new features to give it a modular structure like Pascal, its programs and arrays are no longer limited in size, and its speed is the equal of any language short of Assembly. A joke is running around Microsoft's programming department. When a big job using a \""more advanced\"" language falls behind schedule, someone will inevitably quip: \""Give it to Bill. He'll write it in BASIC over the weekend!\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-257-259-basic-programming-for-technical-analysis-part-2-by-steve-notis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-257-259-basic-programming-for-technical-analysis-part-2-by-steve-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-257-259-basic-programming-for-technical-analysis-part-2-by-steve-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-archiv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (260-263): Archiving The Experts by Jason S. Glazier"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Archiving The Experts by Jason S. Glazier
If the experiential technical and fundamental knowledge of the stock experts were merged with the technical and fundamental buy/sell indicators found in books and software, a more accurate market prediction system could be formed. Knowledge-based expert systems (KBES), an area of artificial intelligence (AI), is the methodology I have used to develop the basis for the market prediction system that is discussed here.
A knowledge-based expert system is a computer program that mixes textbook knowledge and human experience for a narrow application domain. Human experts provides knowledge not present in textbooks, because there is always a portion of \""field\"" knowledge that never finds its way into books and few textbooks explain what to check first, where to start or what hunches to follow. Facts do not lend themselves to quick problem solving and novices tend to consider too many possibilities, most of which do not lead to a viable solution. Often, an expert can glance at a Quotron machine and determine if trading conditions are favorable, an ability not generally explained in a textbook."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-260-263-archiving-the-experts-by-jason-s-glazier-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-260-263-archiving-the-experts-by-jason-s-glazier-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-260-263-archiving-the-experts-by-jason-s-glazier-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-overlay-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (264-269): The Overlay Profile For Current Market Analysis Part 2 by Donald Jones and Christopher Young"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Overlay Profile For Current Market Analysis Part 2 by Donald Jones and Christopher Young
Perhaps the best way to learn how to apply long-term overlays to trading is by example. Normally, the trader follows the overlay until an equilibrium time period is identified. The breakout is then noted, the trend is traded and, finally, a new equilibrium is reached and the process begins again.
The Treasury bond September 1988 contract from March 21 through June 7, 1988, begins with an equilibrium (bracketing) period (March 21-31), moves into a downward trend (April 4-May 31) and then rebounds from the trend, ending in a bracket (June 1-7). This trend period is characteristic of most trend behavior: a fairly rapid move, a consolidation, another move and another consolidation.
The market action at the end of the trend is similar to the end of many trends, showing a blow off phase with a rapid retracement of a substantial part of the total move. The entire move from 9000 to 8400 represents $6,000, of which about two-thirds occurred during the trend. The blow-off retracement recovered about half of the trend."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-264-269-the-overlay-profile-for-current-market-analysis-part-2-by-donald-jones-and-christopher-young-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-264-269-the-overlay-profile-for-current-market-analysis-part-2-by-donald-jones-and-christopher-young-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-264-269-the-overlay-profile-for-current-market-analysis-part-2-by-donald-jones-and-christopher-young-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-tradtom-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (270-273): Trading Tomorrow's Wall Street Journal by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., C.T.A."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Tomorrow's Wall Street Journal by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., C.T.A.
W.D. Gann once remarked some people would not be able to make money even if they had tomorrow's Wall Street Journal, just because they would be held hostage to fear. In October 1987, I had the trading equivalent of tomorrow's Wall Street Journal. I made more money trading in one day than I thought possible. I must admit, however, that Gann was right. If I hadn't been at least partly filled with fear, I could have made a lot more than I did. I could have paid off my mortgage. To start with, 1987 had been a good year for more than half of it. I was hitting eight out of 10 trades.
I should have known. Someone told me once, \""Two things make you vulnerable: success and failure.\"" Well, this was success, and I was vulnerable. For one, as anyone who runs a hotline or distributes a newsletter or market advice can tell you, some customers who call are really after something else. I had gotten two long phone calls from customers asking, \""When's the big one? When's the top?\"" To be quite honest, I had been too busy to even worry about when the top would occur. After all, if you can catch the intermediate swings, why worry about the big one?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-270-273-trading-tomorrow-s-wall-street-journal-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-c-t-a-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-270-273-trading-tomorrow-s-wall-street-journal-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-c-t-a-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-270-273-trading-tomorrow-s-wall-street-journal-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-c-t-a-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-definad-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (274-278): Defining Advance/Decline Indicators by Fay H. Dworkin, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Defining Advance/Decline Indicators by Fay H. Dworkin, Ph.D.
The notion is simple. When fewer and fewer issues participate in the upward trend of a primary bull market, \""bad breadth\"" warns of a market turnaround. Although it is easy to track advancing and declining issues, it's not as easy to know what to do with the data afterward. I have encountered an astonishingly large number of ways to construct \""advance/decline\"" (A/D) indicators. From one period to the next, the closing price of a traded vehicle can advance, decline or remain unchanged. These three outcomes are the\nbasic components of A/D indicators. Does the similarity end there? Which indicator does the best job?
By themselves, the numbers of advancing and declining issues have limited interpretive value. In a bull market, loss of momentum (today's value relative to some historical value) of advances may presage a downturn. In a bear market, loss of momentum of declines may mean the worst is over. This may explain why most A/D indicators are built on comparisons between advances and declines and can be included under two basic categories: difference indicators and ratio indicators. Within each category, however, they range from simple to complex."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-274-278-defining-advance-decline-indicators-by-fay-h-dworkin-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-274-278-defining-advance-decline-indicators-by-fay-h-dworkin-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-274-278-defining-advance-decline-indicators-by-fay-h-dworkin-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-member-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (279-280): Member/Odd Lot Trading by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Member/Odd Lot Trading by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT
Stock exchange members, the group that makes up the member trading statistics, should be more knowledgeable than the rest of us, the great \""public.\"" The members should be smart money — at least, they should be smarter most of the time.
In recent years, the odd lot market has been used by large operators to avoid tick change rules. Usually, though, odd lot trades represent the operations of a group not as knowledgeable as the exchange members. A comparison of the operations of smart money with those of the not-so-smart could be useful. If so, an index comparing the buying and selling of exchange members with the buying and selling of the odd lots might be helpful. Recently, I put such an index to the test and it came through with flying colors."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-279-280-member-odd-lot-trading-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-279-280-member-odd-lot-trading-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-279-280-member-odd-lot-trading-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-sidebp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (281-284): SIDEBAR: Portrait of a cycle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Portrait of a cycle
Combining volume indicators, my new high and new low indicators and the advance/decline line (ADL) helps me to define cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or other broad indices such as the New York Stock Exchange Index or Standard & Poor's 500 stock index.
The charts in Figures 1-4 show how these three sets of indicators detect a DJIA cycle. Figure 1 is an overview and shows five complete DJIA cycles delimited by my new low indicator (NL), the single best indicator I have found for defining cycles. Figures 2-4 are close-ups of the last cycle in Figure 1."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-281-284-sidebar-portrait-of-a-cycle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-281-284-sidebar-portrait-of-a-cycle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-281-284-sidebar-portrait-of-a-cycle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c07-advdec-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:7 (281-284): The Advance/Decline Line by Mike Burk"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Advance/Decline Line by Mike Burk
The advance/decline line, used with the volume percentage ratio and the new high/new low indicator, two indicators I've developed, helps me distinguish cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and other indices. The advance/decline line (ADL) is simply a plot of the running total of the number of issues that advanced in price minus the number of issues that declined in price. I tried improving on this traditional formula — by calculating percentages, by factoring in the number of unchanged issues, by considering each datum separately and by calculating oscillators, both exponential and arithmetical, of all lengths — without success. Advance/decline lines can be drawn using either weekly or daily data, but in this article I will use only daily data.
Both graphic and numerical study of the ADL have merit. Graphically, I plot the ADL in the same frame with the DJIA, with both highs and lows for the period at the top and bottom of their scales, respectively. When either hits a new high or new low for the period, its scale is redrawn to accommodate the new value."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-281-284-the-advance-decline-line-by-mike-burk-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-281-284-the-advance-decline-line-by-mike-burk-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-7-281-284-the-advance-decline-line-by-mike-burk-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-findcyc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (287-293): Finding Cycles In Time Series Data by A. Bruce Johnson, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Finding Cycles In Time Series Data by A. Bruce Johnson, Ph.D.
To improve the process of removing trend from stock market prices to see underlying cyclic movement, I have combined triangular moving averages with the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) concept of calculating the difference between two moving averages.
Figures 1-9 indicate that this new technique shows some promise, at the cost of some moving average lag. This loss is redeemed by the gain of a stationary curve that retains, and may reinforce, the cycles in the original data.
Trend can be removed from data in a number of ways before searching for cycles. Nearly all analysis of stock market prices, or any time series data, requires the removal of trend—that is, data must be made stationary. Popular techniques to remove trend are:
(1)Take first differences. Yesterday's value is subtracted from today's value, the day before yesterday's value from yesterday's, and so on.
(2)Use of residuals from regression. A least-squares trendline is fitted to the data. Then, for each time period, the value of the least-squares trend is subtracted from the value of the data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-287-293-finding-cycles-in-time-series-data-by-a-bruce-johnson-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-287-293-finding-cycles-in-time-series-data-by-a-bruce-johnson-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-287-293-finding-cycles-in-time-series-data-by-a-bruce-johnson-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-sidebtm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (287-293): SIDEBAR: Triangular moving averages"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Triangular moving averages
Article Figure 1 represents a 20-period triangular moving average (P=20). By convention, the maximum weight for all values of P is 2.0. If P=20, the maximum weight 2.0 must be at the midpoint, time period 10. Incremental weights from zero will be 2/(P/2), or ±0.2 in this example. The diagram indicates that weights return to zero at time period 20, period P. Therefore, the number of effective time periods and weights, n, are 19, so n=P- 1 ."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-287-293-sidebar-triangular-moving-averages-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-287-293-sidebar-triangular-moving-averages-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-287-293-sidebar-triangular-moving-averages-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-sidebw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (287-293): SIDEBAR: What about lags?"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: What about lags?
What about the lags introduced by triangular moving averages? An example is the best way to study them. The index in Article Figure 2 is a sine curve with a period of 40 observations and an amplitude of 10."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-287-293-sidebar-what-about-lags-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-287-293-sidebar-what-about-lags-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-287-293-sidebar-what-about-lags-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-second-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (294-295): Secondaries by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Secondaries by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT
If the owner of a large block wants to sell without generating a big price decline, he sometimes enlists the help of an underwriter. This type of sale is called a secondary offering. The underwriter uses his skills to dispose of the stock discretely at the best possible price.
Owners of large blocks certainly watch the performance of their stock and its company. Sometimes they are on the \""inside.\"" They are not small operators, and they should have access to good information. Their wish to sell must have a reason: perhaps they have uncovered some bit of information that is unfavorable. As a result, the quantity of secondaries is a measure of informed bearishness. A large number of secondaries is a bearish sign, while a small number is bullish. This statistic is easy to watch. A list of secondaries is published each week in Barron's.
How well has this indicator performed? The chart is the record of a 40% exponential average. (This is about the equivalent of a four-week moving average.) The average over the past 10 years is 2.7 secondaries per week, with a standard deviation of 2.2."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-294-295-secondaries-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-294-295-secondaries-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-294-295-secondaries-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-histpt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (296-298): Historical Patterns In The Long-Term Stock Market by James G. Arnold"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Historical Patterns In The Long-Term Stock Market by James G. Arnold
Stock markets have been around a long time, and historically, markets demonstrate some well-defined patterns. At some levels of averaging, one is even tempted to call the long-term market \""predictable.\"" I use statistical analysis to reduce more than 100 years of market data to a simple mathematical model. I've sought to identify the important patterns and examine their significance. Understanding the cycles and trends of \""markets past\"" should allow you to become comfortable with the market.
Prices do not stay in line with value, and that is precisely what makes a stock market. Sometimes they are\ntoo high and sometimes they are too low, but they do swing around value and—over the very long\nhaul—prices will average out to value. Price is simply a number upon which buyer and seller agree.\nValue is what a thing is worth. Over the very long haul, value will be recognized.
I use the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index for my model. Although this index measures\nhigh-capitalization stocks, it is value weighted and it does sample a reasonable fraction of the entire\nmarket. Data exist to trace the S&P 500 average back into the past century."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-296-298-historical-patterns-in-the-long-term-stock-market-by-james-g-arnold-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-296-298-historical-patterns-in-the-long-term-stock-market-by-james-g-arnold-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-296-298-historical-patterns-in-the-long-term-stock-market-by-james-g-arnold-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-prog-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (299-300): Programming For Technical Analysis Part 3 by Steve Notis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Programming For Technical Analysis Part 3 by Steve Notis
In the last two installments of this column I wrote about Microsoft QuickBASIC being my choice as the best language for a beginner to learn for technical analysis, and I presented a routine to read CompuTrac format data files. I also presented a crude but working technical analysis charting program with source code.
The TACHART.BAS program that I presented last issue demonstrated the techniques needed to scale and plot charts and indicators. It is not a \""bulletproof\"" program in that there are no routines to reject improper entries by the user, and there are no error-handling routines. These things can be added if you want to develop a more sophisticated program. I left them out to keep the code simpler and easier to follow.
The only indicator included in last month's code was the rate-of-change study, which, next to moving averages, is the most basic technical indicator. This month I will present an add-on module that will allow you to plot a totally new indicator called Up-Down Volatility.
Up-Down Volatility takes the form of two separate lines that criss-cross to indicate changes in the trend of a market. Visually, it looks much like J. Welles Wilder's plus and minus Directional Movement Index, but the formulas are quite different."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-299-300-programming-for-technical-analysis-part-3-by-steve-notis-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-299-300-programming-for-technical-analysis-part-3-by-steve-notis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-299-300-programming-for-technical-analysis-part-3-by-steve-notis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-anover-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (301-303): An Overview In Elliott Terms by Mark Thompson"",""caption-linebreaks"":""An Overview In Elliott Terms by Mark Thompson
I began to plot a chart in January 1987 in an effort to discover exactly where the stock market would peak. Basically, I agreed with Robert Prechter's long-term wave counts. But to my surprise I came to a conclusion different from other Elliott wave analysts. The 1929 peak in the market was the top of Grand Super Cycle I and 1990 will see the peak of Grand Super Cycle III, according to my analysis.
The chart I constructed includes the Axe-Houghton Industrial Average from 1855 to 1932, and from 1932 to 1989 I spliced in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and adjusted the chart accordingly (Figure 1). In the left-hand corner I used the chart of the Cleveland Trust Rail Index from 1831 to June 1932 and then spliced in the Dow Jones Transportation Index from June 1932 to December 1988. Overlaying the transportation and rail index, I placed the Kondratieff waves, developed by a Russian economist who observed in 1926 that the United States had undergone three long-term cycles. According to my chart analysis, we are currently at the end of the plateau of the fourth wave. The Kondratieff wave theory shows the current bull market peaking between 1987 and 1989."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-301-303-an-overview-in-elliott-terms-by-mark-thompson-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-301-303-an-overview-in-elliott-terms-by-mark-thompson-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-301-303-an-overview-in-elliott-terms-by-mark-thompson-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-elemt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (304-306): Elementary Bond Trends by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Elementary Bond Trends by Thom Hartle
The bond market provides the technician with an assortment of approaches to trading. Complex and esoteric styles occupy one end of the spectrum, while the other extreme is represented by techniques that are simple and straightforward. For my money, the elementary style is the most appealing. Using an approach built upon the basics of trading provides me with the best forecasts of the bond market's direction.
Experience has taught me that the bond market marks time in periods that are bottoms, consolidations and tops. If the bond market is not marking time, then it is trending (either bull or bear) to a point where a price formation will begin to develop. Understanding the basics of trending periods and price formations is the first step toward successful trading. The easiest way to learn is to look at a perfect world.
This look at a perfect world serves to focus your thinking on the underlying forces that create the types of price formations that you are working to interpret. It is very simple to conclude (correctly, one hopes) that a double top formation is complete and the market is headed lower. It is more important to understand that the market buying has been completely satiated and that continued supply is entering the market and the price will be marked down."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-304-306-elementary-bond-trends-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-304-306-elementary-bond-trends-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-304-306-elementary-bond-trends-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-howran-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (307-309): How Random Is Random? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""How Random Is Random? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Some fundamentalists and most technicians would probably agree that tick-to-tick or maybe even day-to-day price changes aren't completely random. Most fundamentalists would argue that price changes over longer time periods are affected by different factors, the impact of which makes price changes random. Technicians, on the other hand, argue that past prices affect current prices. It's difficult for them to believe price changes are completely random. I originally proposed a test for divergence from randomness about seven years ago, which was published in the Journal of Electrophysiological Technique . I used this test to demonstrate that the changes in Standard & Poor's 500 stock index are apparently random. I am not aware of any other simple tests that detect divergence from randomness, nor of any adverse commentary on this test since it was published.
Now, a new question has occurred to me: Just how random is random? Might prices appear random when examined individually but, if aggregated, may not be?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-307-309-how-random-is-random-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-307-309-how-random-is-random-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-307-309-how-random-is-random-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-japan-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (310-312): Japanese Stocks: Potential Calamity Or Business As Usual? by Eric L. Sharp"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Japanese Stocks: Potential Calamity Or Business As Usual? by Eric L. Sharp
Market calamities can be interesting, profitable and even fun to watch. We've had a few of our own in the U.S., with the savings and loan debacle and the junk bond market hijinks. People who talk about how efficient markets are should be required to explain why these major market screwups occur when the signs leading up to them are often obvious. The Japanese stock market is another example. It serves as a good lesson on how an objective statistical evaluation can keep you on the right side of things.
For several years now we've heard about the terrific runup in the Japanese stock market. That was true; it outperformed the U.S. equity market by a wide margin. We also heard that the Japanese had driven their market up in disregard of all sensible valuations. In early 1987 Japanese price/earnings ratios (P/Es) were well over 60 in comparison to U.S. P/Es, which were considered very toppy in their low 20s. Open speculation was that a crash was going to take place and that it might very well start in Japan and drag us along. As it happened, it occurred just the other way around.
In October 1987 the Tokyo market fell less than New York's did, and then it went on to new highs. That really sparked the outrage of the fundamentalist P/E watchers. How could such a thing be?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-310-312-japanese-stocks-potential-calamity-or-business-as-usual-by-eric-l-sharp-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-310-312-japanese-stocks-potential-calamity-or-business-as-usual-by-eric-l-sharp-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-310-312-japanese-stocks-potential-calamity-or-business-as-usual-by-eric-l-sharp-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-bezier-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (313-315): Bezier Curves: No Tool For Trading by Donald R. Lambert"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Bezier Curves: No Tool For Trading by Donald R. Lambert
Once upon a time, long, long ago, when the dates all ended in \""B.C.\"" (which, as we all know, stands for \""before computers\""), draftsmen were often faced with a problem. The head draftsman would tell his assistant to draw a smooth curve that passed through a series of given points. The assistant would get out a long thin sheet of metal called a \""spline,\"" fasten it to his drafting board so that it passed through the desired points and draw the required line.
This method was grand for producing plans, but when it came time to convert the blueprint into a physical object, the guy with the hammer and saw asked hard questions such as, \""How high is this arch on page two compared to the one on page seven?\"" Someone had to come up with a way to give precise answers.
That someone was P.E. Bezier, a French engineer who wrote Numerical Control: Mathematics and Applications, which appeared as part of the 1974 edition of the John Wiley series in computing.
Once the basic theory is mastered, the process is not hard to apply, just incredibly time consuming and exacting. However, the result isn't useful for trading!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-313-315-bezier-curves-no-tool-for-trading-by-donald-r-lambert-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-313-315-bezier-curves-no-tool-for-trading-by-donald-r-lambert-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-313-315-bezier-curves-no-tool-for-trading-by-donald-r-lambert-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-onbatt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (316-318): On The Battlefield by Mike Burk"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On The Battlefield by Mike Burk
In Elliott wave theory, the A, B and C waves refer to the reaction following the initial decline from a cycle top: The A wave is the initial decline, the B wave is a slight advance after the initial decline and the C wave is the decline following the secondary high. The period of the most rapidly moving prices in the stock market is often the beginning of this second decline, the beginning of the C portion of the Elliott wave, a downward wave that occurs after an unconfirmed market top drops for a while and then begins moving up again.
As such, it is the best time to buy puts. With this in mind I looked for this B and C wave formation after the widely unconfirmed stock market top of September 1, 1989. The picture that developed was remarkably similar to the July 5-November 14, 1978, cycle, when my upside volume indicator (AV) and basic volume indicator (VOL) collapsed while prices rose. (See my previous articles listed in the Reference section at the end of this article.) In 1978, the cycle price top was confirmed by the advance-decline line (ADL) and AV. Both weakened quickly after the price top.
On October 3, 1989, when the DJIA closed at a new all-time high of 2754.56, it appeared to be walking on air. Not one of my indicators even came close to supporting the high. My patience lasted until the afternoon of October 5, when it appeared that the DJIA would close higher with declining issues outnumbering advancing issues."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-316-318-on-the-battlefield-by-mike-burk-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-316-318-on-the-battlefield-by-mike-burk-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-316-318-on-the-battlefield-by-mike-burk-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-makmon-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (319-322): Making Money With Chaos by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., RSA, CTA"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Making Money With Chaos by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., RSA, CTA
An order indeed exists in the market, as W.D. Gann and, more recently, J. Welles Wilder have claimed. But the order is not as perfect as some have made it out to be, simply because the market obeys the physical laws of a chaotic system. The purpose of this article is to explain the basic behavior of chaotic systems and to show you how to profit by them.
Since the publication of the popular book, Chaos, the Making of a New Science, many have tried to apply those theories to the markets. Profitable application of theory, however, requires a practical feel for the phenomenon you are studying. So let's start with basics.
Chaos theory was developed by scientists and mathematicians to describe the behavior of nonlinear systems. It has been found to describe real physical systems from waterwheels to heart attacks. So what's a nonlinear system? Well, a nonlinear system is one that is not straight. What linear means is that the input-output relationship of the system is a straight line. If you go out and press down on your car bumper, with 10 pounds of force the bumper might move one inch; with 20 pounds of push the bumper may move two inches. The distance moved is proportional to the force applied."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-319-322-making-money-with-chaos-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-rsa-cta-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-319-322-making-money-with-chaos-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-rsa-cta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-319-322-making-money-with-chaos-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-rsa-cta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c08-dontreg-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:8 (323-324): Don't Regulate Futures Like Stocks by Howard S. Portnow"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Don't Regulate Futures Like Stocks by Howard S. Portnow
Even as I write this, the U.S. Congress is considering ways in which the financial markets, and especially the futures market, may be \""reformed.\"" The main proposals being put forth are to unify the regulation of the stock and commodity markets under the authority of one regulatory body, to raise margin rates on the stock indices—a 50% margin is the amount most frequently mentioned—and to disconnect the stock and stock indices markets to prevent arbitrage. The reason for this desire to impose regulative and/or legislative changes on the markets is a widely expressed fear of the \""evils\"" of the volatility believed to be emanating from the futures exchanges. Misunderstanding seems to be widespread about both the mechanism and function of the futures market and the causes of the problem.
The futures markets provide the mechanism by which commercial interests (institutional managers of equity portfolios, in the case of the stock indices) can assure future supply of stock and a given price and can offset other uncertainties they may face. Arbitrage brings prices into equality between markets for related items. Volatility is thought of as the variability or range of prices.
The problem perceived is that greater volatility in the futures market causes a price discontinuity between the futures and stock markets, which in turn encourages arbitrage, the ultimate effect of which is to transfer the volatility from the futures market to the stock market. The contention that prices range more broadly on the futures exchanges (even if conceded) is not the issue. That prices periodically run (or are run) beyond acceptable limits is. Actually, arbitragers reduce volatility on the exchange where prices have gone out of line. Arbitragers step in to buy or sell against the direction that prices are moving, and in so doing they act to slow the movement of prices. To be compensated for this service they take the opposite side of this trade on the related exchange. Thus, by this action they introduce the volatility that they had acted against in the first market into the related one."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-323-324-don-t-regulate-futures-like-stocks-by-howard-s-portnow-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-323-324-don-t-regulate-futures-like-stocks-by-howard-s-portnow-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-8-323-324-don-t-regulate-futures-like-stocks-by-howard-s-portnow-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-sidebo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (327-331): SIDEBAR: Contraction/Expansion & ORB/Trend Day"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SIDEBAR: Contraction/Expansion & ORB/Trend Day
Definitions along with illustrations of Contraction/Expansion, opening range breakout and trend day concepts."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-327-331-sidebar-contraction-expansion-orb-trend-day-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-327-331-sidebar-contraction-expansion-orb-trend-day-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-327-331-sidebar-contraction-expansion-orb-trend-day-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-princc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (327-331): The Principle Of Contraction/Expansion by Toby Crabel, CTA"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Principle Of Contraction/Expansion by Toby Crabel, CTA
I define the principle of contraction/expansion as the market phenomenon of change from a period of rest to a period of movement back to a period of rest. This interaction between the phases of motion and rest is constant, with one phase directly responsible for the other's existence.
For this report I will use daily open, high, low and close data. I tested a trading method called opening range breakout—a trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range.
A trend day is defined as a day when the first hour's trade makes up less than 10% of the day's range or the market has no dominant area of trade throughout the session. Trend days are characterized by an opening near one extreme and a close on the opposite extreme of the daily range. Trend days fall into the category of expansions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-327-331-the-principle-of-contraction-expansion-by-toby-crabel-cta-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-327-331-the-principle-of-contraction-expansion-by-toby-crabel-cta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-327-331-the-principle-of-contraction-expansion-by-toby-crabel-cta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-weekmc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (332-333): Weekly McClellan Oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Weekly McClellan Oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT
In the September 1989 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Richard Mogey described and interpreted the McClellan Oscillator. It's based on daily data. My data bank has been developed on a weekly basis. This article is a report on the performance of a weekly McClellan.
The daily McClellan is the deviation of a 10% from a 5% exponential average of the daily number of advancing stocks minus the number declining. This is about equivalent to the deviation of a 20-day from\na 40-day moving average. To change to a weekly, a 20-day average should be similar to a four-week average; a 40-day should be equivalent to an eight-week average. In turn, a four-week should be equivalent to a 40% exponential of weekly data; to approximate the eight-week I used a 22% exponential.
The weekly McClellan, then, is the deviation of the 40% exponential from the 22% exponential."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-332-333-weekly-mcclellan-oscillator-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-332-333-weekly-mcclellan-oscillator-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-332-333-weekly-mcclellan-oscillator-by-arthur-a-merrill-cmt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-delay-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (334-335): Delayed Channel Breakout System by Peter Aan"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Delayed Channel Breakout System by Peter Aan
Originator: Unknown; this is a variation of the simple channel breakout method.
Rules and formula: The simple channel breakout is a tried-and-true trading system that has been used for years. The delayed channel is an interesting variation that has been discussed in print by several writers but is less well known.
The rules are:
Exit shorts and buy long on an intraday stop one point above the highest high of x days, with the most recent day being y days ago.
Exit longs and sell short on an intraday stop one point below the lowest low of x days, with the most recent day being y days ago."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-334-335-delayed-channel-breakout-system-by-peter-aan-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-334-335-delayed-channel-breakout-system-by-peter-aan-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-334-335-delayed-channel-breakout-system-by-peter-aan-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-tradlim-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (336-336): Trading Limit Markets by Douglas Arend"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Limit Markets by Douglas Arend
In an effort to maintain orderly markets in commodity futures, many exchanges impose daily trading limits. If prices rise above or fall below the previous session's close by a certain amount, further movement in the same direction is prohibited throughout the remainder of the session. The theory behind the use of limits is to afford an opportunity for markets to pause while participants determine if a move is overdone.
Regardless of the underlying arguments for trading limits, such restrictions can be very frustrating to traders who find themselves locked into a position with the market limit against them. Prior to the introduction of commodity options, the only recourse for such traders was to establish a spread position using either another delivery month or a commodity that was still trading. At best, this was often a poor substitute for being able to close the futures position directly.
Commodity options give traders the opportunity to create synthetic futures positions that parallel the behavior of the underlying contract. One advantage of this strategy is it allows positions to be traded, even when a market is locked limit."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-336-336-trading-limit-markets-by-douglas-arend-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-336-336-trading-limit-markets-by-douglas-arend-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-336-336-trading-limit-markets-by-douglas-arend-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-hedg-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (337-338): Hedging With Spreads by Bradley J. Horn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Hedging With Spreads by Bradley J. Horn
A risk manager may prefer the flexibility and limited risk of a call or put strategy. The trader, however, may feel that the premium costs associated with outright option positions are too expensive. These cash flow problems may be overcome with a vertical spread, since this strategy combines the risk-reducing benefits of buying options and the income-generating benefit of selling options.
For example, a transportation company that must acquire gasoline in the future is exposed to the risk of rising prices if the company lacks a fixed-price supply contract for its anticipated inventory needs. Since the firm must purchase gasoline in the future at prevailing market prices, it is short gasoline.
The long hedge protects commercial firms from rising prices by providing an immediate market in which to buy its anticipated inventory. One long hedge alternative utilizing gasoline options is the vertical bull spread. Employing this strategy using calls, the end-user can establish a margin of protection against a rise in gasoline prices without forfeiting the ability to participate in a price decline. In addition, the hedger is able to reduce the cost of the hedge by selling an option and generating income. The trade-off associated with this lower cost is that protection is limited by the strike price of the short call and the hedger still remains exposed to risk should prices rise dramatically beyond the strike price."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-337-338-hedging-with-spreads-by-bradley-j-horn-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-337-338-hedging-with-spreads-by-bradley-j-horn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-337-338-hedging-with-spreads-by-bradley-j-horn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-camp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (339-344): Campaign: April '90 Gold by Robert Miner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Campaign: April '90 Gold by Robert Miner
Every trading action must be made in accordance with the trader's trading plan. Unfortunately, most traders are very disorganized. One of the most useful habits I have developed for trading is to keep a daily trading/analysis log for each market I am interested in trading. Every day I make (usually) brief comments about the position of the market, potential upcoming price and time zones to anticipate change in market activity, news events or reports upcoming that may have at least a temporary effect on price activity and any other comment that I think will be relevant to making a trading decision for that market.
The comments include the parameters that must be met to take action (initiate a trade, adjust a stop, add positions, close a trade, and so on). By keeping a daily trading log with this important information, I will always have the most relevant and timely information at hand and will always have a written record of why I made a particular trade or took a particular trading action. This way, I can easily review my trading activity for what I did right and what I did wrong in order to constantly improve my trading performance.
The following are comments from my trading log for a two-month period in early 1990. The comments have been expanded in some cases to provide more of the information that I keep in my time and price data books for each market. These are books of time and price relationships of past market activity and of the current market activity as it unfolds."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-339-344-campaign-april-90-gold-by-robert-miner-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-339-344-campaign-april-90-gold-by-robert-miner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-339-344-campaign-april-90-gold-by-robert-miner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-righton-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (345-347): Right On Target by Richard W. Arms Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Right On Target by Richard W. Arms Jr.
I used to buy stocks and commodities in the same manner in which Columbus sailed to the New World: I didn't know where I was going when I started out, and when I got there I didn't know where I was. It was a great adventure in exploration, with high hopes at the beginning and self-doubt along the way. Of course, the trip was not randomly chosen. I believed, as Columbus did, that success lay at the end of the journey, and many times it did. Unlike Columbus, however, when I got to my destination I didn't always recognize the fact that I had arrived and get off the boat. Sometimes I let the trade carry me right back to where I started without ever claiming the paradise I had seen only from the quarterdeck of my ship.
Then I discovered volume and the part it plays in technical analysis. It is better to have a good idea about where you are going before you set sail. Adverse winds or poor navigation may blow you back to land and wreck you on the rocks from time to time. Such is the nature of all speculation, but a well-charted course provides a higher likelihood of success.
There are many ways to chart that course, however. The Polynesians used stick charts to figure out where they were. The Vikings had no way of calculating longitude and had to trust latitude and luck. Today, celestial navigation has been all but replaced by satellite positioning or Loran. Each improvement has made it easier for the helmsman to know where he is and where he is going and, unlike Columbus, know when he has arrived. So too with technical analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-345-347-right-on-target-by-richard-w-arms-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-345-347-right-on-target-by-richard-w-arms-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-345-347-right-on-target-by-richard-w-arms-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-psycho-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (348-352): The Psychology Of David Ryan by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Psychology Of David Ryan by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
David Ryan won the U.S. Investing Championships three years in a row. I first interviewed David in May 1988 and again in August 1989.
Q: What makes you successful as opposed to the average trader?
A: I'm interested in what I'm doing. I love what I'm doing! I'm fascinated! I study the market because I want to do it and because I 'm fascinated to find out what makes the stock go up and what is going to be the next big winning stock. My goal is just to become a better and better trader, more and more disciplined, so I can be more and more successful in the market. I am disciplined in implementing the system and sticking to it. The only time I really start to lose money is when I really haven't stuck to my system and cut my losses short.
I think it's also the time factor. I can devote a lot of time to it and become better and better. A lot of traders try to do too many things —they play commodities, stock, options—and they don't do one thing well. If they do a lot of things fairly well, they might make some money. Most probably lose money. If they concentrated on one thing and got to know it very, very well, then they're probably going to do a lot better because they know that one specific area of trading a lot better than other people do. I think it's a combination of interest, discipline, having the time and concentration."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-348-352-the-psychology-of-david-ryan-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-348-352-the-psychology-of-david-ryan-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-348-352-the-psychology-of-david-ryan-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-fibo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (353-356): Fibonacci, Elliott And Volatility by Paul G. Williams"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fibonacci, Elliott And Volatility by Paul G. Williams
Suppose we could chart volatility just as we chart conventional prices. Then we could use Elliott wave analysis, Fibonacci characteristics and cycle techniques to forecast greater or lesser volatility. And very high volatility—perhaps resulting in a market crash—should be preceded by a bullish pattern in the volatility chart.
Now suppose we could calculate and plot market volatility with a unique method that no one else was using. The volatility patterns would display the same type of structures as conventional price charts—which everyone looks at—but the clarity of the wave structure and precision of the Fibonacci timing patterns might be on a much higher level because no one else was able to see and act on them. The market would be free to create well-formed and highly predictable patterns.
In autumn 1987 I discovered a simple method of plotting market volatility, which, from my viewpoint, achieves all these desirable features. See if you agree."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-353-356-fibonacci-elliott-and-volatility-by-paul-g-williams-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-353-356-fibonacci-elliott-and-volatility-by-paul-g-williams-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-353-356-fibonacci-elliott-and-volatility-by-paul-g-williams-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-keydte-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (357-358): The Keys To Technical Conditions by James S. Gould, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Keys To Technical Conditions by James S. Gould, Ph.D.
In the beginning, before personal computers routinely made trading decisions, there were traders who were able to decipher the language of the markets and earn trading profits. Today, traders have more electronic tools to analyze the markets than those of yesteryear could have imagined. Given the availability, power and diversity of those electronic tools, one would expect traders to devote more time analyzing market conditions prior to making trading decisions. Ironically, machines and associated paraphernalia (that is, software) have become master rather than servant for many traders.
Traders who rely exclusively on off-the-shelf trading systems and mathematical manipulations (usually of price) have become deaf and blind to many signals imparted by the market —the very information that traders of previous years relied upon extensively. Market prices are determined by underlying demand and supply, reflecting buying and selling motivated by traders' hopes, greed and fears. Each electronic \""blip\"" on the trading screen reflects a microcosm of these components and, when aggregated, provides a composite of the market's current internal strength or weakness and an indicator of future prices."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-357-358-the-keys-to-technical-conditions-by-james-s-gould-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-357-358-the-keys-to-technical-conditions-by-james-s-gould-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-357-358-the-keys-to-technical-conditions-by-james-s-gould-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-dowthe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (359-363): Dow Theory by Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dow Theory by Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle
For a man who had the perfect opportunity to widely publicize his theory of stock market trends but never used it, Charles H. Dow nevertheless left a definitive legacy—the Dow theory is at the root of technical analysis and continues to influence trend analysis after nearly a century.
Dow was a newspaper reporter and a member of the New York Stock Exchange in the 1880s before he established the Dow Jones financial news service and The Wall Street Journal. Ironically, most of what we know about his theory comes from the editor's closest colleagues. Dow himself was extremely cautious and maintained his stock price averages for 17 years before he would write even fragmentary discussions of his theory as part of his business editorials. Despite associates' exhortations, Dow died without writing a systematic presentation of his findings.
What is perhaps most remarkable is not that the Dow theory was kept alive by the editor's contemporaries, but that it remains a fundamental and highly useful tool even in a stock market that bears little resemblance to the one in which Dow worked nearly 100 years ago."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-359-363-dow-theory-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-359-363-dow-theory-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-359-363-dow-theory-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v08-c09-foury-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-8-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.8:9 (364-368): Four-Year Cycles by James G. Arnold"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Four-Year Cycles by James G. Arnold
I developed the \""form\"" of a long-term up/down cycle of the stock market, as shown in Figure 1a. This form shows that all market trends continue to excess. The up market phase drives prices far above value and the down market phase carries prices well below value. Strangely, the extent of these excess movements has demonstrated great consistency in past markets.
The measure of price relative to value is reflected in the price/earnings ratio (P/E) of the average and in the dividend yield of the average. The typical movement of P/E and yield over the long-term cycle is shown in Figure 1b, and Figure 1c. When the average P/E rises above 20 and the average dividend yield dips to the 3% neighborhood, the market phase is ready to shift from up to down. Similarly, when the dividend yield rises above 6% and the average P/E settles down toward 6 or 7, the long-term down market is about to turn into an up market.
A similar consistency of extremes is found with the four year cycle, but the limits of these extremes are more psychological than real. A market trend feeds upon itself. A rising market generates enthusiasm. This attracts more buyers and more buyers cause the market to rise further. In a similar manner, a falling\nmarket generates fear. The fear produces more sellers, which, in turn, drives the decline further. In the physical technologies, this situation would be described as a system with positive feedback. Such systems are noted for their tendency to become unstable. The market certainly follows this analogy."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-364-368-four-year-cycles-by-james-g-arnold-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-364-368-four-year-cycles-by-james-g-arnold-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-8-9-364-368-four-year-cycles-by-james-g-arnold-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-classic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (12-13): Classic Reversal: A Double Bottom by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Classic Reversal: A Double Bottom\nby Thom Hartle
The major commercial interests are involved in markets as a business. Large amounts of money are\ncommitted to managing the risk that is faced by these companies. Companies on the cash side of markets\nwill use futures to enhance positions with leverage or to protect themselves from adverse price\nmovement. Decisions are based on extensive fundamental and technical research. The size of the\npositions assumed by these players will be revealed by trading volume seen on each day's activity.
One facet of technical analysis is that the large professional (and very knowledgeable) trader in any\nmarket cannot help leaving behind evidence regarding his or her opinion on the direction of the market.\nYou can infer what the commercials are doing by following the price charts along with the volume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-12-13-classic-reversal-a-double-bottom-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-12-13-classic-reversal-a-double-bottom-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-12-13-classic-reversal-a-double-bottom-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-doubles-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (14-16): Double Smoothed-Stochastics by William Blau"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Double Smoothed-Stochastics\nby William Blau
The stochastic oscillator devised by George Lane is one of the most useful and widely used tools in\ntechnical analysis. This oscillator is based on the current close in relation to the highest and lowest prices\nin a specified time interval (Figure 1). By definition, price increases as the close approaches the highest\nprice of the interval and, conversely, decreases approaching the lowest price in the interval. A maximum\nis defined when price touches the highest price and then recedes. These characteristics are succinctly\nexpressed by Lane's stochastic:
...
where the oscillations are normalized within a scale of zero to 100. The subscripts (5) indicate \""during\""\nthe last five days.
The elegance of this expression is in its simplicity. The expression, however, usually suffers from\noversensitivity. Too many smaller price changes are revealed, whereas only certain peaks and valleys are\nimportant. Ideally, smooth curves are desired to represent price where buying can be performed at or near\na price valley, with selling at or near a price peak.
An additional oscillator, %D, is used to help signal market reversals. The formula for %D is:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-14-16-double-smoothed-stochastics-by-william-blau-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-14-16-double-smoothed-stochastics-by-william-blau-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-14-16-double-smoothed-stochastics-by-william-blau-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-sidebex-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (14-16): SIDEBAR: EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGES"",""caption-linebreaks"":""EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGES
Defining exponentially smoothed moving averages — which, for most traders, would be a series of\nclosing prices — is simply another form of a moving average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-14-16-sidebar-exponential-moving-averages-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-14-16-sidebar-exponential-moving-averages-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-14-16-sidebar-exponential-moving-averages-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-sidebh-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (14-16): SIDEBAR: HLC INDEX"",""caption-linebreaks"":""HLC INDEX
A version of the double smoothed stochastic index factoring in the e high, low and close."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-14-16-sidebar-hlc-index-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-14-16-sidebar-hlc-index-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-14-16-sidebar-hlc-index-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-support-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (17-19): Support And Resistance Levels by John J. Kosar"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Support And Resistance Levels\nby John J. Kosar
With the advent of personal computers and charting software, support and resistance levels and their\nvalue as a technical tool have been overshadowed by sophisticated indicators. Nonetheless, support and\nresistance levels are one of the most basic and essential components of technical analysis.
Support and resistance are price areas where an abundance of trading has taken place and where\nconsiderable buying or selling pressure exists. Underlying support (that is, buying pressure) keeps a\nmarket in an uptrend, and overhead resistance (selling pressure) keeps a market trending lower. Once a\ntrader can accurately determine where these areas are, they can be used very effectively to manage risk.\nBy entering trades at price levels at which a significant move is likely, the probability of reward over risk\nis improved.
There are support and resistance levels that are applicable to every trader's time frame. Observing how\nthe market reacts when encountering these levels is a very good barometer to measure the strength of the\nunderlying trend. Traders with a very short time frame, including floor traders, arbitrageurs and\nindividual day traders, often rely heavily on intraday support and resistance levels to enter and exit the\nmarket. Position traders use longer-term support and resistance to either initiate or add to their positions,\nas well as for placement of protective stop-loss orders. Large quantities of stop-loss orders will usually\naccumulate at key support and resistance areas and will often contribute to a dramatic surge in the market\nin the direction of the breakout once these areas have been penetrated."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-17-19-support-and-resistance-levels-by-john-j-kosar-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-17-19-support-and-resistance-levels-by-john-j-kosar-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-17-19-support-and-resistance-levels-by-john-j-kosar-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-synthet-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (20-22): Creating A Synthetic Security by Jean-Olivier Fraisse, C.F.A."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Creating A Synthetic Security\nby Jean-Olivier Fraisse, C.F.A.
Experienced investors know their goal is to maximize returns while minimizing risk. The smaller the\ncapital invested for a profit is, the higher the return is. Using synthetic securities may reduce the\ninvestment that is required to implement a given strategy.
To describe synthetic instruments is at once simple and complex. A synthetic security is created by\nbuying and writing a combination of options that simulates the risk and profit profile of a security. To\ndecide on a beneficial combination, first group several financial instruments—a stock, a put and a call,\nfor example, buying some and shorting the others—and examine their combined profit and loss profiles.\nThe combined profiles may emulate the risk profile of another single instrument. The group of\ninstruments form an amalgam instrument, a \""synthetic\"" security that may be used in lieu of the instrument\nit emulates when implementing an investment strategy. Sounds arcane? Read on.
COMPONENTS AND RISK PROFILES
A stock owner benefits when the price of his shares increases beyond the purchase price; conversely, he\nincurs a loss when the stock price falls below the purchase price. His profit and loss profile (Figure 1) is\nthus the 45-degree line (AB) where C is the stock purchase price (we ignore commissions for simplicity's\nsake). A stock short seller's profit/loss profile is the reverse of the stock buyer. His profit and loss profile\nis represented by line DE in Figure 1. The short seller benefits when the stock price falls below the\npurchase price and incurs a loss when it rises.
Similarly, a call option gives the buyer the right—or option —but not the obligation to acquire the stock\nin question at the set exercise price within the exercise period. Obviously, the call buyer will exercise the\noption only when it is in his interest to do so; otherwise, he will allow the option to expire. Thus, the call\nprofit/loss profile will be as indicated in Figure 2. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-20-22-creating-a-synthetic-security-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-c-f-a-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-20-22-creating-a-synthetic-security-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-c-f-a-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-20-22-creating-a-synthetic-security-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-c-f-a-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-sidebr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (20-22): SIDEBAR: RELEVANT FORMULAS AND OBSERVATIONS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""RELEVANT FORMULAS AND\nOBSERVATIONS
Focusing on the profit and loss profiles, we have established that:
Rstock + Rput - Rcall = 0
Where Rstock, Rput and Rcall are the risk—profit or loss —of holding the stock, the put and the call,\nrespectively. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-20-22-sidebar-relevant-formulas-and-observations-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-20-22-sidebar-relevant-formulas-and-observations-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-20-22-sidebar-relevant-formulas-and-observations-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-pseudo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (23-26): Pseudo Stocks by Mark Harris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pseudo Stocks\nby Mark Harris
The stocks charted in Figure 1 look for all the world like typical charts you might find in a chartbook. I\nhave added a few uptrend and downtrend lines and shown how 52 (in the upper chart) seems to provide\nlong-term resistance, then support, and in the latter stages resistance again. I can't tell you what stocks\nthese are, because they aren't charts of real stocks: the charts were generated by my computer along with\nthousands of others. They are shown as a family here because they all possess common statistical\ncharacteristics.
Some years ago I became interested in modeling stock charts using stochastic methods„ that is, using\nrandom numbers to drive the simulation.
I started off looking at random walks by letting p be today's closing price and getting tomorrow's price\nfrom p + a x R, where R is a random number between -0.5 and +0.5 and a is a scaling factor. This\nproduces squiggly lines, but compared with a real plot of closing prices, the charts are neither\naesthetically pleasing nor do they produce the urge to dive in and apply technical analysis. what, in other\nwords, should the squiggles look like to approximate a real stock chart?
Here, naturally, we are far from scientific bedrock and getting into the realm of art. If a successful\nsimulation produces a chart that looks to me as if it came out of Daily Charts, it's not far from my\nproclaiming, \""I don't know much about art, but I know what kind of pictures I like to look at.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-23-26-pseudo-stocks-by-mark-harris-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-23-26-pseudo-stocks-by-mark-harris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-23-26-pseudo-stocks-by-mark-harris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-emotion-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (27-28): Managing Emotions And Money by Robert J. Hamilton"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Managing Emotions And Money\nby Robert J. Hamilton
The pitfalls of trading are well known to investors as well as traders. As perils go, the star performers\nby far and away are hope, fear and greed. The mavens of trading theory agree that avoiding these pitfalls\nwill lead to successful and profitable trading. The problem is, the mavens never tell you how to avoid\nthose pitfalls successfully. They don't even tell you how to get a good commission discount.
Successful option and commodity traders usually won't admit the \""h\"" word—hope—to their trading\nvocabulary. They know that whenever you get into the hope mode, your position is usually terminal and it\nmay very well end up a loser. When you have a position that is in trouble, the hope of not wanting to take\na loss or wanting to at least break even will many times cause you to neglect sound capital management\nof limiting risk. More often than not, that hope will betray you and you will only take a bigger loss later.\nMost successful traders have had to deal with this affliction at one time or another. If you persist in this\nhope syndrome, ultimately, it will devastate you."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-27-28-managing-emotions-and-money-by-robert-j-hamilton-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-27-28-managing-emotions-and-money-by-robert-j-hamilton-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-27-28-managing-emotions-and-money-by-robert-j-hamilton-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-currenc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (29-32): Currency Investment With Tactical Trading by John Beatty"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Currency Investment With Tactical Trading\nby John Beatty
Foreign currency deposit accounts — for German Deutschemarks, British pounds and so forth—are not\nroutinely available in the cities and towns of the United States. In fact, before January 1989, federal law\nprohibited such accounts. As a consequence, many believe that currency investments comprise only the\ntrading of futures and options. And unfortunately, for many investors, futures and options are definitely\ntoo risky.
Should you want to move your funds across foreign currency deposit accounts in a bank, however, you do\nhave interesting investment alternatives. Currency exchange rates have numerical volatility for long-term\nand short-term trades just the way that stocks do. You can also engage in arbitrage, simultaneously\nbuying one currency while selling another. For two currencies, relative changes occur between the\nexchange rates and also between the interest rates paid on deposit accounts. Banks also offer, not futures,\nbut forward currency contracts. They also offer interbank currency options. And some banks will even\nlend up to eight times the holding.
Figure 1, an output from the alpha-beta trend program detailed in an article by Anthony W. Warren,\ndepicts the moving exchange rate of the German mark, showing that particular currency's volatility and\npotential for trades."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-29-32-currency-investment-with-tactical-trading-by-john-beatty-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-29-32-currency-investment-with-tactical-trading-by-john-beatty-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-29-32-currency-investment-with-tactical-trading-by-john-beatty-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-session-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (33-37): A Session With Alex Elder by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Session With Alex Elder by Thom Hartle
Alexander Elder, director of the Financial Trading Seminars, is no newcomer to technical analysis nor\nto trading. Technical Editor John Sweeney and Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Elder on July 18 of last\nyear in the STOCKS & COMMODITIES offices.
How are you learning to become a better trader?
The best way I know to become better at anything is to teach. Being confronted with a whole group of\npeople who expect information and who ask very tough questions is the best way to organize my thinking\nand to become better at whatever it is that I'm doing. I find in doing a seminar that some people are\nbeginners and some people are very, very serious professionals and they often ask very tough questions\nand I have to dig deeper than I would on my own. Also, beginners, just total newcomers to the field, ask\nquestions that people who have been around for a long time just don't think about. That's the whole\neducational thing. Basically, I trade. I go to my office three or four days a week, and just sit in front of my\nscreen and day trade.
I want to familiarize our readers with your focus as a trader/investor. Describe yourself as a trader.\nAre you a short-term trader or do you look for the longer-term view?
Well, I started out trading stocks and reading WSJ — buying and selling stocks. It didn't take me too long\nto realize that to make money in the stock market you have to have serious money to begin with and at\nthat point that wasn't the position I was in. I tried options, but I was never really very comfortable trading\noptions because the whole concept of wasting assets was something I had difficulty dealing with. Then I\ntried futures and found that it was much more straightforward."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-33-37-a-session-with-alex-elder-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-33-37-a-session-with-alex-elder-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-33-37-a-session-with-alex-elder-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-volatil-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (38-38): Volatility by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Volatility\nby Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Does the degree of volatility in the stock market give us any clue to the future of the market? I tested\nday-to-day volatility and found that it does have a good forecasting record.
I took the percent change of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the preceding day's close to the\ncurrent close, and multiplied by 1,000 to get a reasonable number. All changes up or down were made\npositive. The changes in the week were then averaged to make the v basic index. The chart is a 33%\nexponential average, which is about the equivalent of a five-week average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-38-38-volatility-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-38-38-volatility-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-38-38-volatility-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-wyckoff-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (39-42): A Wyckoff Guide for Investors and Speculators by Craig F. Schroeder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Wyckoff Guide For Investors And Speculators\nby Craig F. Schroeder
The Wyckoff method as it is taught today represents the results of more than 100 years of continuous\nmarket study. Those years have brought the development of numerous refinements and a variety of\napplications. The basic building blocks of the approach, however, have remained the same. The ability to\nstand the test of time in a field where techniques come and go as regularly as the seasons makes a\nworking knowledge of the method a worthwhile undertaking for all serious investors and speculators.
In his course in stock market science and technique, Richard D. Wyckoff stated the basics of his method\nin five steps. These five building blocks are as follows:
Step 1: Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. Then decide how yon are\ngoing to play the game: long, short or neutral.
Step 2: Select from those stocks in harmony with the market the ones stronger than the market in a bull\nmarket. In a bear market, select those that are weaker than the market.
Step 3: Select those stocks that have built up a cause, a potential count for a move using point & figure\ncharts.
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-39-42-a-wyckoff-guide-for-investors-and-speculators-by-craig-f-schroeder-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-39-42-a-wyckoff-guide-for-investors-and-speculators-by-craig-f-schroeder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-39-42-a-wyckoff-guide-for-investors-and-speculators-by-craig-f-schroeder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-sideb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (39-42): SIDEBAR: THE WYCKOFF WAVE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE WYCKOFF WAVE
To determine the current trend, the present position and probable future trend of the market, a means of\ncharting the market's action to reveal the general direction of the trend is necessary. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-39-42-sidebar-the-wyckoff-wave-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-39-42-sidebar-the-wyckoff-wave-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-39-42-sidebar-the-wyckoff-wave-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-trsimpl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (43-46): Trading Simply: Minimizing Losses by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading Simply: Minimizing Losses\nby John Sweeney
Richard Dennis is said to have said, \""There's a lot less to trading than meets the eye.\"" If so, he was\ncorrect. I like to describe an approach that has nothing to do with entry or exit, but everything to do with\nminimizing losses. I believe virtually any system that can identify successful trades can be profitable,\ngiven good loss control. Here's how.
FUNDAMENTAL RULES
Approach trading, particularly futures trading, as a zero-sum game. In such a game you can only win if\nsomeone else loses. Stock trading is not such a game, definitively, since its total value can rise and fall.\nHowever, I see no reason that rules sharpened in the harsher regime of futures wouldn't serve well in\nstocks. (Idea: what to make of instruments such as index futures, which are traded in zero-sum markets\nbut derive from non zero-sum markets?) Thus, as a practical matter:
Rule 1: The theoretical solution to a zero-sum game is to minimize the size of. your largest loss. Every\ntrader has heard that adage before: Cut your losses.
Rule 2: Trade a small percentage of capital for any one position, preferably 2% or less. I don't know a\nserious trader who commits more than 5% of his capital in any one position, and most are around 3% .\nI've had people ask me what their returns will be if they commit 10-15% of their capital to their positions!\nTheir return would be a wipeout, because the probability of ruin is very high and very quick—say, three\nmonths.
Now, to keep the loss in proper proportion to capital without being stopped out of positions, you need a\ntechnique for estimating the size of the losses you'll take. I'll show you how to estimate this precisely, but\nfirst, one more general rule:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-43-46-trading-simply-minimizing-losses-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-43-46-trading-simply-minimizing-losses-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-43-46-trading-simply-minimizing-losses-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c01-trendex-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:1 (9-11): Trend Exhaustion Index by Clifford L. Creel, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""When a price trend changes direction, it is sometimes difficult to predict whether that change is just a\nsmall correction or the start of a major trend change. I use a simple indicator, which I call the trend\nexhaustion index (TEI), to help interpret such trend changes.
TEI gives an indication of change in market direction. It is not infallible, but after using it for the past\nyear, I have learned to appreciate it as part of my technical toolbox. It is especially useful in giving exit\nsignals prior to major market declines.
The index is constructed by dividing the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) new highs by the NYSE\nadvances each day and plotting a 10 day exponential moving average of this value. The formula is thus:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-9-11-trend-exhaustion-index-by-clifford-l-creel-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-9-11-trend-exhaustion-index-by-clifford-l-creel-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-1-9-11-trend-exhaustion-index-by-clifford-l-creel-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-sidebex-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (391-395): SIDEBAR: EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGES"",""caption-linebreaks"":""EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGES
Defining exponentially smoothed moving averages — which, for most traders, would be a series of\nclosing prices — is simply another form of a moving average. An exponentially smoothed moving\naverage utilizes a smoothing constant (a) that approximates the number of days for a simple moving\naverage. This constant is multiplied times the difference between today's closing price and yesterday's\nmoving average value. This new value is then added to yesterday's moving average value (Figure 1):"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-391-395-sidebar-exponential-moving-averages-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-391-395-sidebar-exponential-moving-averages-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-391-395-sidebar-exponential-moving-averages-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-macdrev-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (391-395): The MACD Indicator Revisited by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The MACD Indicator Revisited\nby John F. Ehlers
The moving average convergence-divergence (or MACD, as it is familiarly known), one of the more\npopular technical indicators, was invented by technician Gerald Appel to trade the 26-week and 13-week\ncycles of the stock market. Commodity traders often use daily data with MACD but still use 26-period and\n13-period exponential moving averages (EMA) in the analysis. The implication is that there are 26- and\n13-day cycles in commodity markets. Beliefs such as this (for example, that only a 14-day relative\nstrength index is correct) incite my curiosity enough to make me do some research. The basic premise by\nwhich I work is that the market is always changing and your trading strategy and indicator parameters\nmust change to fit the current market conditions. Specifically, I have studied the Standard & Poor's 500\nand have found an unusual combination of MACD parameters that produces good profits a surprisingly\nhigh percentage of the time. This unique use of the MACD indicator can be applied to almost any market\nat one time or another.
THE TRADITIONAL MACD
A 26-day EMA is the first moving average and a 13-day EMA is the second moving average in a\ntraditional MACD. The MACD line is formed by subtracting the long (first) moving average from the short\n(second) moving average. A signal line is formed by smoothing the MACD line with a third EMA. The\nthird moving average is usually a 10-day EMA. For the sake of simplicity, causing only a small amount\nof distortion, I use the third EMA to be equal in length to the second EMA."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-391-395-the-macd-indicator-revisited-by-john-f-ehlers-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-391-395-the-macd-indicator-revisited-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-391-395-the-macd-indicator-revisited-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-paulmer-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (396-400): Paul Merriman On Mutual Fund Timing by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Paul Merriman On Mutual Fund Timing by Thom Hartle
Paul Merriman, founder and president of The Merriman Investment Management Company, manages the\nportfolio of the Merriman Mutual Funds. He also publishes a newsletter and hotline service called \""Fund\nExchange,\"" specializing in market timing no-load mutual funds. He wrote Market Timing with No-Load\nMutual Funds, which was published 1987, and has a new book due out in January 1992, Investing for a\nLifetime.
Merriman's philosophy is that the main purpose of timing is not to maximize profits in a bull market but\nto limit losses in a bear market. Then, he says, long-term profits will take care of themselves. STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Paul Merriman on July 24 via telephone, talking about,\namong other things, what kind of systems he uses to time mutual funds and how he applies those systems'\nsignals to his $140 million portfolio.
\""Market timing techniques not only help get people out of the market unemotionally, but it has them out\nof the market as much as 40-50% of the time, which must lower the risk of the investment.\""—Paul\nMerriman"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-396-400-paul-merriman-on-mutual-fund-timing-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-396-400-paul-merriman-on-mutual-fund-timing-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-396-400-paul-merriman-on-mutual-fund-timing-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-sidebm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (396-400): SIDEBAR: MERRIMAN'S TIMERS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MERRIMAN'S TIMERS
According to Paul Merriman, the most productive of the four systems that Merriman & Associates uses\nhas been Stan Lipstadt of PSM Investors, Inc. Carlisle, MA-based Lipstadt has been timing on a\nreal-time basis since 1974. The most important factor in Lipstadt's model is the tracking of daily points\nup, points down, volume up and volume down. These numbers are collected from the Lowry Report\nService, West Palm Beach, FL, and are placed in a long-term moving average perspective, with the\nbuy/sell rules based on changes in the momentum of the number. Annually, Lipstadt's system averages\nthree to four trades a year."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-396-400-sidebar-merriman-s-timers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-396-400-sidebar-merriman-s-timers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-396-400-sidebar-merriman-s-timers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-sidebte-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (396-400): SIDEBAR: TEN RECOMMENDED FUNDS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TEN RECOMMENDED FUNDS
According to the relative strength analysis of Paul Merriman & Associates since July 1, these are the\nfunds that Merriman would choose at present:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-396-400-sidebar-ten-recommended-funds-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-396-400-sidebar-ten-recommended-funds-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-396-400-sidebar-ten-recommended-funds-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-logarit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (401-402): Logarithmic Point & Figure by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Logarithmic Point & Figure\nby Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
In the June 1991 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I described how a turning point could be measured by\nfiltering out minor market moves. The same filtering technique can be used to correct the failings of the\ntraditional point and figure (P&F) chart and upgrade it to logarithmic status.
The P&F chart, built on a filtering technique, is an old favorite. In a one point chart, moves of less than\none point are ignored or filtered out; in a three-point chart, all moves of less than three points are filtered\nout.
The idea here is great, but the chart makes the error of using points and not percentages. Points are a poor\nmeasure of importance in a stock chart. One point can be very important in a $10 stock but be a very\nminor move in a $100 stock.
OTHER LIMITATIONS
Another limitation of the P&F chart is the use of an arithmetic scale. This scale has a built-in distortion.\nA 5% move at the bottom of the chart may be completely hidden, while at the top of the chart it may look\nlike a major move. In an arithmetic chart, a trend rising at a uniform 10% per week seems almost flat at\nthe bottom but skyrockets up at the top of the trendline. A straight trendline on an arithmetic scale\nactually has a reducing rate of rise in percent as you travel up the line. You've noticed how the scale\npoints get closer together as you rise on a log scale; this recognizes the shrinking importance of a point\nand corrects the distortion of the arithmetic scale."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-401-402-logarithmic-point-figure-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-401-402-logarithmic-point-figure-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-401-402-logarithmic-point-figure-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-regress-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (403-408): Trading The Regression Channel by Gilbert Raff"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading The Regression Channel\nby Gilbert Raff
Every trader has had the experience of selling a stock or commodity too soon during a rapid price\nreversal, only to realize in retrospect that this was a consolidation within a trend. Or just the opposite:\nperhaps the trader watched profits evaporate when the \""consolidation\"" became a downhill avalanche.
A vast array of methods exists to describe price movement, ranging from trendlines to Fourier analysis.\nThe ideal description of a trend would provide clear recognition of its start, trading range and\ntermination. The ideal tool would permit the trader to know exactly when to enter a trade, when to exit,\nwhen to trade contrary to the trend and when a new trend had started. The ideal tool would also give a\ngood sense of whether price action was likely to be worth the risk of any trade at all.
While we don't expect perfection, most traditional description of trends fail miserably to measure up to\nour ideals. The regression channel is a technique I've developed that provides many of these stated needs,\nincluding the ability to predict reversals within the trend and, frequently, to project the end of a trend\nweeks in advance.
To start, let us review two classic descriptions of trend. The first describes an uptrend as a sequence of\nhigher highs and higher lows. In Figure 1, a daily price chart of Blair Corp. (BL), an uptrend begins at\npoint A and ends at point B. From point B to point C, there is first non-trending action, then a lower low\nat C. Presumably, trend AB is over. Figure 2 shows the same security later. Much to our chagrin, exiting\nat C was a mistake.
The second classic description of trend defines it with a trendline. Figure 3 represents the uptrend defined\nby the line joining lows C, D and E. At F, a new low breaks the trendline decisively. Where do we go\nfrom here? Future price action is shown in Figure 4."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-403-408-trading-the-regression-channel-by-gilbert-raff-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-403-408-trading-the-regression-channel-by-gilbert-raff-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-403-408-trading-the-regression-channel-by-gilbert-raff-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-compress-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (409-414): Compressing Candlestick Patterns by Jean-Olivier Fraisse and Kevin D. Armstrong"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Compressing Candlestick Patterns\nby Jean-Olivier Fraisse and Kevin D. Armstrong
Market action is similar to territorial claims between competing species in that bulls seek to expand\ntheir territory by increasing prices and, conversely, bears seek to expand their territory by decreasing\nprices. Candlestick charting depicts the ongoing struggle and provides valuable insights about the\nnever-ending battle (see sidebar, \""Drawing candlesticks\""). In particular:
-A candle body measures the territory held by the bulls(white candle body) or the bears (black\ncandle body) from the beginning to the end of the corresponding period.
-The shadows of the candle form represent probes into enemy territory in an attempt to outflank or\nencircle it. An upper shadow is a failed attempt by the bulls to expand their territory at the expense\nof the bears; since the closing price is below the high of the period, part of the ground gained by the\nbulls is subsequently lost to the bears. A long upper shadow is thus possible evidence of weakening\nbulls. Similarly, a lower shadow is a failed attempt by the bears to trap the bulls.
-Body and shadows should be seen as a whole, and individual candlesticks, which depict the\noutcome of a single bout between bulls and bears, should be viewed in relation to surrounding\ncandlesticks. The two ways to analyze the parts as a whole is to combine (or compress) individual\ncandlesticks into a single summary candlestick or to identify standard candlestick patterns deemed\nof predictive value."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-409-414-compressing-candlestick-patterns-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-and-kevin-d-armstrong-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-409-414-compressing-candlestick-patterns-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-and-kevin-d-armstrong-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-409-414-compressing-candlestick-patterns-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-and-kevin-d-armstrong-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-pricech-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (415-418): Price Changes During Non-Trading Hours by George R. Arrington and Howard E. Arrington"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price Changes During Non-Trading Hours\nby George R. Arrington and Howard E. Arrington
One frustrating aspect of trading commodities is the price changes that occur during non-trading hours.\nIt is difficult enough to make a profit when markets are open and buy and sell orders can be executed\nwithin a relatively short time. When markets are closed, however, the trader is faced with even more\nobstacles. Positions cannot be changed until the markets reopen, and in the interim traders are exposed to\nthe risks of changes in circumstances and prices.
Most commodities futures markets are open seven to eight hours a day, while a few are open for only\nfour. Yet new information affecting the supply and demand for commodities arrives 24 hours a day.\nInformation that may affect commodities includes such things as trade embargoes, severe weather, war,\nlabor strikes, currency devaluation, government contracts, crop estimates and political assassinations. As\na result of the new information overnight and the ensuing changes in expectations, opening prices often\ndiffer and sometimes dramatically from the closing prices of the previous day.
To assess the extent of price changes during non-trading hours, we examined daily price data for 34\ncommodities futures contracts. The data generally covered the period from June l990 to July l99l. We\nignored price data when the open interest was less than 500 to avoid distortions that might occur in\ninactive markets. Distortions might occur, for example, when the September l990 contract expires and\nthe September l99l contract begins trading. We calculated standard t-statistics to evaluate whether the\naverage price changes we observed were statistically significant (that is, non-zero)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-415-418-price-changes-during-non-trading-hours-by-george-r-arrington-and-howard-e-arrington-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-415-418-price-changes-during-non-trading-hours-by-george-r-arrington-and-howard-e-arrington-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-415-418-price-changes-during-non-trading-hours-by-george-r-arrington-and-howard-e-arrington-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-issuevo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (419-421): An Issue/Volume Weighted Long-Term Arms Index by Jack Rusin"",""caption-linebreaks"":""An Issue/Volume Weighted Long-Term Arms\nIndex\nby Jack Rusin
Consider, if you will, two vastly simplified trading days on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).\nOn the first day, 10 issues advance and 10 decline with 100 shares of up volume and 200 shares of down\nvolume. On the second day, the same 10 issues advance and the same 10 decline, but this time there are\n200 shares of up volume and only 100 shares of down volume.
Using the Arms index, or TRIN (for trading index), for the first day would result in [10/10]/[100/200] or\n2. The TRIN for the second day would be [10/10]/[200/100], or 0.50.
So far, so good. But what if we want to develop a long-term Arms index? To keep matters simple, let's\ncall two days \""long term,\"" since the same principles apply regardless of the time period chosen. In the\nMay 1991 STOCKS & COMMODITIES article by Richard Arms, the inventor of the index wrote in reference\nto the 21 - and 55-day crossover: \""It is merely the 21-day moving average of the Arms index\nsuperimposed upon the 55-day moving average of the Arms index. It is a simple arithmetic moving\naverage in both cases.\""
Now apply this formula to our example, using 2DAI for the two-day Arms index: 2DAI = [2.00 + 0.50]/2\n= 2.5/2 = 1.25. According to the index theory, a reading of 1.00 is neutral both daily and long term. A\nreading below one indicates that, on average, more volume is going into each advancing issue, while a\nreading above one indicates that more volume is going into each declining issue."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-419-421-an-issue-volume-weighted-long-term-arms-index-by-jack-rusin-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-419-421-an-issue-volume-weighted-long-term-arms-index-by-jack-rusin-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-419-421-an-issue-volume-weighted-long-term-arms-index-by-jack-rusin-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-reason-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (422-425): The Trader's Reason vs. Emotion by Terry S. Brown"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Trader's Reason vs. Emotion\nby Terry S. Brown
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Victor Sperandeo had a brilliant track record day trading stocks,\ncommodities and especially the Standard & Poor's 500 and NYFE futures. He had an idea. \""I was trading\nwell and by a strict set of rules,\"" says Victor, \""making a lot of money when I was right and losing only a\nlittle when I was wrong. I figured that if I could do it, then I could train others to do it. I wanted to\nfranchise my methods and had visions of becoming the McDonald's of the financial markets.\""
It didn't work. Of the 39 traders he trained, only five made money and went on to pursue independent\ncareers in trading. All were taught the same details of Sperandeo's methods. All were given free access to\nany information in his office, including direct or phone contact with Victor himself. Each of them could\nhave mirrored Victor's trades. But most of them blew out within six months, some lasted longer, some\nless. Sperandeo was perplexed. He wanted to know why so many had failed.
He quickly realized that knowledge and intelligence had little to do with success in the markets. \""One of\nthe five who made money barely knew the alphabet,\"" he recalls. \""Seriously, he was about as literate as a\nfifth-grader, but he always closed a losing position, and he let his profits run. On the other hand, one of\nthe traders who failed could consistently and correctly answer 98% of the questions on Jeopardy.\nKnowledge alone is not enough to make money in the markets.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-422-425-the-trader-s-reason-vs-emotion-by-terry-s-brown-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-422-425-the-trader-s-reason-vs-emotion-by-terry-s-brown-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-422-425-the-trader-s-reason-vs-emotion-by-terry-s-brown-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-perelia-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (426-429): P/E Ratio Reliability by High Stokely and Ken Stewart"",""caption-linebreaks"":""P/E Ratio Reliability\nby Hugh Stokely and Ken Stewart
Alert traders can do well in financial instruments, but short-term trading usually averages out close to\na zero-sum game — that is, a dollar won tends to come directly out of the pocket of a less alert trader or\ninvestor.
Finding positive-sum games—those in which everyone wins — can improve the odds. Historically,\ngrowth stocks have provided a \""positive sum\"" — a growing investment pie that rewards the winner of a\ntrade extremely well but also allows the loser to build investment value over time.
Even in quick-response trading, a case exists for fishing in a pond of seasoned growth stocks that have\nstrong underlying company and market characteristics. A low-capitalization, less seasoned stock is\nparticularly vulnerable to random shocks that override fundamental and technical logic. Often, a seasoned\nstock is a better bet to reflect the factor that attracted the trader's attention to begin with. Because\nvolatility is inherent in equities and derivatives, there are significant opportunities for trading and\ncombination strategies in seasoned growth stocks.
Growth stocks increase in value by exploiting longer-term fundamental trends. Over time, effective\nmanagers incorporate improvements in technology into the company infrastructure, thus creating\nmarketing advantages that build profit margins and earnings. For companies categorized as growth\nstocks, superior earnings performance can be amplified by expanding price/earnings multiples."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-426-429-p-e-ratio-reliability-by-high-stokely-and-ken-stewart-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-426-429-p-e-ratio-reliability-by-high-stokely-and-ken-stewart-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-426-429-p-e-ratio-reliability-by-high-stokely-and-ken-stewart-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c10-sidebc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:10 (426-429): SIDEBAR: CALCULATING PERR"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CALCULATING PERR
Price/earnings ratio reliability (PERR) is simply 100 ´ the R-square that measures the correlation between\nthe logarithms of price and earnings. PERR is most easily visualized through scatter charts: Article Figure\n2 shows Merck's high PERR of 85.5, with scatter points keeping close to the 45-degree line that bisects the\nprice and earnings axes, while Article Figure 4 shows uncorrelated scatter with Alcoa's low PERR of 15.9.
Normally, R-square is encountered as a byproduct of a regression analysis, which often reports\nR-bar-square, adjusted for degrees of freedom. PERR uses the simpler R-square calculation (see below) in\na form within the capabilities of many hand calculators.
For n years (from annual reports or stock services), obtain annual earnings per share and the mid-range\nbetween the high and low stock prices for the year. Calculate E as the natural log of earnings and P as the\nnatural log of price. For example:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-426-429-sidebar-calculating-perr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-426-429-sidebar-calculating-perr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-10-426-429-sidebar-calculating-perr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-midpoin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (431-434): The Midpoint Oscillator by Tushar Chande, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Here's an indicator based on the concept used in %K and %R.
The Midpoint Oscillator\nby Tushar Chande, Ph.D.
I would like to share one of my own indicators based on the same underlying concept used in the\npopular stochastics (%K) and Williams' %R overbought/oversold indicators.
To review, the formula for the stochastics %K is:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-431-434-the-midpoint-oscillator-by-tushar-chande-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-431-434-the-midpoint-oscillator-by-tushar-chande-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-431-434-the-midpoint-oscillator-by-tushar-chande-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-mutualf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (435-437): Mutual Funds As Stock Index Proxies by Joe Duarte"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Mutual Funds As Stock Index Proxies\nby Joe Duarte
Both mutual funds and stock indices such as the Standard & Poor's 500 are collections of stocks, but\nthe}e is a major difference between them. A mutual fund manager changes the stocks in his collection or\nportfolio based on his or her perception of the stock market and the investment goals and philosophy of\nthe fund's charter. The components of a stock index, on the other hand, may remain unchanged for long\nperiods.
The mutual fund's philosophy and its management style, however, smooth out the fluctuations in its net\nasset value as a function of time. As a result, as long as the fund's manager and philosophy remain\nconstant, the fund will usually respond to the market's moves in a similar way in response to market\nconditions, much as an index would.
By keeping long-term data of a mutual fund's price action and using technical analysis of the market's\ntrend, momentum, and the fund's response to market conditions, an investor can achieve fairly consistent\nreturns by trading mutual funds, much as a stock index trader might.
The combination of a stock index and its moving average is the simplest indicator of a trend change that I\nhave found. For diversified mutual fund trading, an easily obtainable and excellent indicator is the\nInvestor's Daily Mutual Fund Index and its 50-day moving average (Figure 1). It is an index of 20 large\ndiversified stock mutual funds, published five days a week. It charts the daily price over the previous nine\nmonths. If the index moves above the 50-day moving average, it is a buy signal, and if it drops below the\nmoving average, it is a sell signal. To prevent whipsaws, I confirm the signals provided by the moving\naverage by using a sentiment indicator."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-435-437-mutual-funds-as-stock-index-proxies-by-joe-duarte-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-435-437-mutual-funds-as-stock-index-proxies-by-joe-duarte-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-435-437-mutual-funds-as-stock-index-proxies-by-joe-duarte-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-sidebrsi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (438-446): SIDEBAR: CALCULATING RSI"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CALCULATING RSI
Calculate RSI by summing the up closes during the first 14 days and dividing by 14. This is the up\naverage (Column E). Then sum the down closes during the first 14 days and divide by 14. This is the\ndown average (Column F). All values are absolute values (positive integers). Then divide the up average\nby the down average to determine the RS value (Column G). Add 1 to the RS value (Column H). This\nresult is divided into 100 (Column I). The quotient is then subtracted from 100 to produce the RSI value\n(Column J)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-438-446-sidebar-calculating-rsi-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-438-446-sidebar-calculating-rsi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-438-446-sidebar-calculating-rsi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-sidebtsi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (438-446): SIDEBAR: CALCULATING TSI"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CALCULATING TSI
Calculating the true strength index requires an introduction to exponentially smoothed moving averages\n(EMA):
Exponential Moving Average- The EMA for day D is calculated as: EMAD = aPRD + (1-a)EMAD-1\nwhere PR is the price on day D and a (alpha) is a smoothing constant (0
It may not be obvious that
(1) RSI14 = 100–(100 / 1+RS)
is the same as"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-438-446-sidebar-rsi-two-versions-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-438-446-sidebar-rsi-two-versions-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-438-446-sidebar-rsi-two-versions-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-truestr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (438-446): True Strength Index by William Blau"",""caption-linebreaks"":""True Stength Index\nby William Blau
Price momentum oscillators are popular tools for traders because the nature of these technical tools is\nto signal trend changes, something every trader wants to know. The ideal indicator would alert the trader\nto a change in the trend from a down market, at the low of the trend to an up market, correctly indicate\nthat the up trend was in force until the absolute high and then signal the new trend. While this indicator\nmay or may not exist, my own work has led me to the use of applying various smoothing techniques to\nchanges in price. Many changes in price from one level to the next are properly considered to be random\nor noise. However, if the noise can be filtered or smoothed out, then the trend should be recognizable.\nBefore discussing the smoothing of price changes, let's start with some basics.
MOMENTUM
Figure 1 depicts a section of a price a chart showing the daily close (open, high and low of the price bar\nare omitted). Momentum is defined as the close minus the close at an earlier time. The daily momentum\nis today's close minus yesterday's close— for example, the one-day momentum = Mtm = close - close[1].\nOn November 3, the value of the close is C. On the preceding day the value of the close is C[1]. The one\nday momentum for the November 2nd to November 3rd interval is a positive number as shown: the close\nhas increased in value in one day. The slope of the close curve is positive, a rising price. Momentum is\nincreasing from one day to the next."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-438-446-true-strength-index-by-william-blau-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-438-446-true-strength-index-by-william-blau-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-438-446-true-strength-index-by-william-blau-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-byers-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (447-452): William Byers Of Bear Stearns by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""William Byers Of Bear Stearns by Thom Hartle
William Byers, director of commodities futures research and a managing director of Bear, Stearns &\nCo., has been in the investment business since 1972. In addition to his administrative functions relating\nto Bear Stearns' commodity futures business, he is responsible for all of the firm's futures market\nresearch and serves as broker for a number of large speculative and institutional accounts. Byers is also\na past director of the Market Technicians Association and the Futures Industry Association Research\nDivision. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Bill Byers via telephone on August 22,\n1991, and inquired about, among other topics, the importance of keeping a trading diary, his\nphilosophies toward trading the current market and how he got started in technical analysis.
\""The regional commodity manager told me if I really wanted to learn about technical analysis, I should\ngo to New York and work in Hutton's commodity department, apprenticing myself ... that sounded good\nto me.\"" —Bill Byers, Bear Stearns"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-447-452-william-byers-of-bear-stearns-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-447-452-william-byers-of-bear-stearns-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-447-452-william-byers-of-bear-stearns-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-merrill-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (453-454): Merrill MW Waves by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Merrill MW Waves\nby Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Suppose prices have been moving in a certain way. What are the probabilities for future prices? You\nmust look to the past for similar situations.
How similar must the past situation be? If you ask your computer to search a historical database for an\nexact copy of a current price swing, it will have a difficult time. Suppose it succeeds in finding a\nduplicate situation, and you see that the market rose after the past price swing. Does this mean that now\nwe can count on a sure rise, with 100% probability? Of course not. The evidence is insufficient; it's called\nanecdotal evidence. If a coin turns up heads one time, it isn't a sure probability for another heads next\ntime.
To assess the true probability of possible outcomes for the current price pattern, you can't ask the\ncomputer for an exact duplication of the pattern. The situation must be similar, but not exact. Your\ncomputer must be able to find enough occasions to indicate a bias in the situation, and it needs enough\noccasions to formulate a probability for the future. For example, if prices rose 40 times and declined five\ntimes after a similar price pattern in the past, the probabilities for the current price swing would be 40/45,\nor 89%.
Of course, the past moves may have been the result of simple chance. To check this, you can use a\nstatistical test called chi square. You'll find it described in any statistical textbook."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-453-454-merrill-mw-waves-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-453-454-merrill-mw-waves-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-453-454-merrill-mw-waves-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-fedpoli-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (455-457): Fed Policy And The Stock Market"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fed Policy And The Stock Market\nRevisiting Gould's Rule\nby George A. Schade Jr.
On February 24, 1989, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York raised its discount rate to 7% and\ntriggered the most recent signal of the \""three steps and a stumble\"" rule. The rule decrees that whenever\nthree successive rises occur in any of the three rates set by the monetary authorities—the discount rate,\nthe reserve requirement and the margin requirement—sometime afterward the market is likely to suffer a\nsubstantial setback. The rates are set by the Federal Reserve Board. The discount rate is the interest rate\nthat Federal Reserve banks charge member banks for direct loans. The reserve requirements are the\npercentage of deposits that commercial banks must set aside in cash for reserves; classifications by bank\ntype, deposit and deposit interval have determined the required reserve levels. The margin requirement is\nthe minimum percent of a stock's current price that must be paid for buying or shorting the stocks.
The rule is credited to the late Edson B. Gould during the time he worked for Arthur Weisenberger & Co.\nThe term \""three steps and a stumble\"" is derived from the ladderlike chart of these monetary rates, which\ntend to change infrequently. Since 1914, the discount rate has been adjusted an average of less than twice\na year, and the margin requirement for stocks was last changed in January 1974. To date, there have been\n13 signals, 11 due to discount rate increases and one each due to increases in reserve requirements (May\n1,1937) and in the stock margin requirement (January 21, 1946) . Gould's rule uses the effective date of\ndiscount rate increases of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the reserve requirements applicable\nto large city banks or in the past to \""reserve city\"" banks. Figure 1 shows the dates of the signals."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-455-457-fed-policy-and-the-stock-market-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-455-457-fed-policy-and-the-stock-market-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-455-457-fed-policy-and-the-stock-market-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-seasona-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (458-460): The Seasonal Cycle by Hans Hannula, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Seasonal Cycle\nby Hans Hannula, Ph.D.
I use natural cycles to help me trade stocks and commodities profitably. One of the most obvious and\npowerful of nature's cycles is the cycle of the seasons. Its effect is obvious not only in commodities, but\nin stocks and bonds as well. Economists widely accept seasonal variations. Traders have long recognized\nseasonal variations as valuable timing aids. The seasonal cycle, in fact, is the basis of W.D. Gann's 45-\nand 90-day cycles.
There are three important steps for a trader to take in applying natural cycles to his or her trading. First, a\ntrader must know when the cycles begin. Second, he or she must understand how natural cycles show up\nin a stock or commodity. Third, the trader must use the cycle timing information in concert with other\ntechnical analysis techniques to decide how likely it is a particular stock or commodity will make a major\nturn on the cycle turning point. Let's illustrate this approach with the seasonal cycle. Any grade-school\npupil can tell you when the seasons begin. In the northern hemisphere, generally, spring begins March 21,\nwhile summer begins June 21. Autumn begins September 23, and winter begins December 21. Actual\ndates may vary by one day in a particular year. So step one is simple."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-458-460-the-seasonal-cycle-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-458-460-the-seasonal-cycle-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-458-460-the-seasonal-cycle-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-guideli-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (461-465): Guidelines For Price Objectives by E.M.S. Flynn and Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Guidelines For Price Objectives\nby F.M.S. Flynn and Thom Hartle
Trends come and trends go. That much, at least, is a given. An important question arises about those\ntrends, however: How far will a move go, and can we project how far it will? Price moves can be\npredicted (more or less accurately) using any of a slew of methods, but accuracy will be likely to increase\nwhen more than one method agree on a given price level. (This is, of course, the \""safety in numbers\""\ntheory and is certainly not unique to technical analysis.) But then, confirmation is important, particularly\nfor a novice trader; to quote technician Arthur Sklarew, \""Technicians know... that price chart analysis is\nnot an exact science. \""If projecting moves are at best an imprecise undertaking, then the fledgling trader\nmust make use of the methods and techniques available to formulate a price move prediction. And there\nare many techniques available.
Projecting price moves is no unfamiliar task for technicians in general and chartists in particular, and the\nmethods by which price objectives are projected are also familiar, certainly in the pages of STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES. Support and resistance, for one example, is a popular and well-used method with which to\nascertain how far a trend will travel. Determining the length of a price objective by using the head and\nshoulders formation is another common technique, but for the most part segregated into the category of\nreversals. Triangle measurements, swing measurements, the 50% retracement technique and midway\ngaps are also methods by which price objectives can be determined (or at least hazarded). (Even the\npuzzling and curious Rule of Seven has been used to project price moves, although its lack of a statistical\nbase make it a doubtful addition to the other techniques listed.) The use of one or more of these\ntechniques (if not others as well) allows the novice trader or student technician to keep a wary eye out for\nsome form of price action at the levels predicted to be key, whether or not it is a trend reversal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-461-465-guidelines-for-price-objectives-by-e-m-s-flynn-and-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-461-465-guidelines-for-price-objectives-by-e-m-s-flynn-and-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-461-465-guidelines-for-price-objectives-by-e-m-s-flynn-and-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-schedul-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (466-467): Scheduling Time For Market Study by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Scheduling Time For Market Study\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Bill, a trader, called my office complaining that he never has enough time to really study the markets.\nHe said his lack of time often resulted in serious problems, and he expressed an interest in consulting\nwith me if I could help him solve his problem. I told Bill that I had helped others with similar problems,\nbut that we would have to schedule two intensive days together in order to work on it. Bill exclaimed that\nhe couldn't possibly give up two days out of his busy schedule. \""Couldn't we do it through hourly phone\nconsultations over the next couple of months?\"" he asked. Just as I was explaining why hourly phone\nconsultations would not solve the problem and would be an inefficient use of my time and his for this\nparticular problem, Bill suddenly had to leave for an unexpected meeting.
During the next six months, I received three more urgent phone calls from Bill, each following a similar\npattern. Bill has a problem that many traders share—working hard but not efficiently. Many traders spend\nhours gathering market information, calculating various indicators and looking at patterns in the market.\nThen they feel a lot of pressure because they might miss an important move in the market. As a result,\nthey spend their entire day gathering every last piece of information they can. Somehow, despite their\nbest efforts, they never seem to trade well. Why? Because their time is spent ineffectively on activities\nthat have little to do with trading success.
If you don't devote your energy to the appropriate task, you will waste a tremendous amount of time.\nMost traders spend their time analyzing the market to predict where the market is going instead of\ndeveloping low-risk trading ideas in which the amount of potential loss is very small. I recommend that\nevery trader plan and devote a specific time each day during which to study the markets with that specific\nobjective of developing low-risk ideas."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-466-467-scheduling-time-for-market-study-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-466-467-scheduling-time-for-market-study-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-466-467-scheduling-time-for-market-study-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-pcbuyer-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (468-470): PC Buyers Guide"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PC Buyers Guide\nSpeed Versus Price\nby Jack K. Hutson
Sooner or later, most traders give in to the urge to purchase a personal computer to help them analyze\nthe markets as well as manage their money in and out of the markets. One of my tasks here at STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES has been to evaluate equipment for our editorial and circulation staff as well as for software\ntesting platforms. About 18 months ago, I undertook the task of evaluating personal computer hardware\nwith the hopes of producing a meaningful ranking of these systems for market technicians.
As with all methodologies, I have chosen what I believe to be an appropriate set of criteria. Generally, the\ntests for each of these machines were designed so that 25% of the time the machine's time was devoted to\nnumber crunching, 20% to graphics, 20% to spreadsheet-type work, and the remaining 35% to word\nprocessing and report writing.
The machines shown in Figure 1 were all augmented with a maximum speed processor as well as\nnumerical co-processor. They usually included a large hard disk and the best high-resolution graphics\nmonitor. If the machine supplier knew that we were testing the machine, they were generally aware that\nwe were looking for the most performance for the least money. Generally, the relationship between\ndollars spent and value received should have shown up as more or less a one-to-one relationship. But as\nyou can see in Figure 1, this is not the case. Figure 1 depicts price on the y-axis, lower prices at the top of\nthe axis, higher prices at the bottom, while relative functionality is shown on the x-axis. The higher\nfunctionality is to the right, the lower functionality to the left. Thus, the machines that are represented in\nthe upper right-hand corner of this chart (listed toward the top of the table in Figure 2) provide the most\nbang for the buck."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-468-470-pc-buyers-guide-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-468-470-pc-buyers-guide-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-468-470-pc-buyers-guide-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-histori-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (471-472): Historical Movement Of The Stock Market by Michael J. Moody, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Historical Movement Of The Stock Market\nby Michael J. Moody, C.M.T.
Experience enables you to recognize a mistake when you make it again. --Franklin P. Jones
Perspective is critical for participants in the financial markets. Unfortunately, one's perspective is easily\ninfluenced by the emotions arising from recent price action, all too often leading to poor market decisions\nbecause current price action never continues indefinitely. Further price erosion in a falling market, as well\nas additional price gains in a rising market, can always be rationalized in the prevailing emotional\nclimate. As a result, loss of perspective due to the emotional environment is apt to occur at the worst\npossible time—at a significant turning point.
ANTIDOTE FOR MEMORY LOSS
The best cure for such market memory loss is hard statistical data on the history of returns in the stock\nmarket. Figures 1 through 4 use quarterly average total return data for the capitalization weighted\nStandard & Poor's 500 Industrials from 1940 to second-quarter 1991 and also display the data in graphic\nform.
Consecutive positive quarterly total returns—up moves— and consecutive negative quarterly total\nreturns—down moves—are shown in extent in percentage terms and duration in quarters. Close study of\nthis type of data is worthwhile, because being familiar with the statistical record is probably the most\nimportant clue we can have to the future."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-471-472-historical-movement-of-the-stock-market-by-michael-j-moody-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-471-472-historical-movement-of-the-stock-market-by-michael-j-moody-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-471-472-historical-movement-of-the-stock-market-by-michael-j-moody-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c11-develop-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:11 (473-476): Developing A System by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Developing A System\nby John Sweeney
The great thing about many of the new trading support systems is that they facilitate the respectable\npractice of \""dinking around\"": that process of tweaking every crazy idea that strikes one until something\nproductive and, hopefully, profitable pops out. I've found this is best done on quiet Sunday afternoons.
Now, this article is not for everyone. I'm going to take you through the grind-it-out process of developing\na trading system. As you'll see, even with nifty software and fast computers, there's mostly sweat and dirt\nbefore you get to the gold—if you get any at all. Perhaps this is really for those new to the process, with\nstars in their eyes.
Why show all the laborious detail? It's a reality check. Many people buy computers and software\nexpecting their lives to get easier. However, my jaded experience is that the problems just change, old\nabilities fade and the new abilities take a while to become productive. An old boss of mine said: \""A new\nsystem never makes money. It just replaces lots of clerks with expensive systems analysts.\"" Even though\nI'm an advocate and a user of computer trading systems, I don't want anyone to get the idea that systems\nare a bed of roses. The initial gain is the elimination of wishful thinking that goes with visual\ninspection/analysis. Later, with practice, productivity is improved. Hence this cautionary note on the real\nworld of trading systems development."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-473-476-developing-a-system-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-473-476-developing-a-system-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-11-473-476-developing-a-system-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-combini-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (479-481): Combining P/E Ratio With Earnings Growth Rates by Pamela H. Brown and William G.S. Brown"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Combining P/E Ratio With Earnings Growth\nRates\nby Pamela H. Brown and William G.S. Brown
The price/earnings (P/E) ratio is widely used in fundamental stock analysis. It serves to normalize\nearnings so that stocks with widely varying earnings may be compared reasonably. The P/E ratio of a\nmarket index such as the Standard & Poor's 500 composite stock price index typically remains within\ncertain boundaries. When investors are pessimistic and the market seems to have nowhere to go but\ndown, the market P/E will be near 7. When confidence is high and investors view the market as having\nno place to go but farther up, the market P/E will be near 17. Historically, these parameters have held\nand, once reached, the market has indeed reversed.
The price/earnings ratio is commonly defined as:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-479-481-combining-p-e-ratio-with-earnings-growth-rates-by-pamela-h-brown-and-william-g-s-brown-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-479-481-combining-p-e-ratio-with-earnings-growth-rates-by-pamela-h-brown-and-william-g-s-brown-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-479-481-combining-p-e-ratio-with-earnings-growth-rates-by-pamela-h-brown-and-william-g-s-brown-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-sidebf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (479-481): SIDEBAR: FIGURING THE NUMBER OF PERIODS IN AN ANNUITY"",""caption-linebreaks"":""FIGURING THE NUMBER OF PERIODS IN\nAN ANNUITY
Often, investors anticipate a need for a given amount of funds at some future date. One way to guarantee\nthat such funds will be available is to put aside a series of payments at predetermined intervals, known as\nan annuity. When the payments are made at the beginning of the period, the' series is known as an\nannuity due. When made at the end of the period, as assumed here, the series is an ordinary annuity.
The value of an ordinary annuity is the sum to which the payments would accumulate, assuming that all\nare invested at some fixed compound interest rate immediately on being put into the annuity.\nSpecifically, if equal payments of P dollars are put aside for n periods and the payments grow at r%\ncompounded each period, the value of this annuity (s) is:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-479-481-sidebar-figuring-the-number-of-periods-in-an-annuity-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-479-481-sidebar-figuring-the-number-of-periods-in-an-annuity-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-479-481-sidebar-figuring-the-number-of-periods-in-an-annuity-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-sidebex-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (482-485) SIDEBAR: Explaining r by Jim Bianco, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""EXPLAINING r
Correlation analysis measures the degree of relationship between two variables. The correlation coefficient r is one popular\nstatistical index for this purpose. The values for r range between +1 to -1; a +1 reading indicates that the two variables are\nperfectly correlated, while a -1 reading indicates a perfect inverse relationship. An r of 0 indicates that the two variables have\nno correlation. The correlation coefficient r measures the relationship between two variables that are believed to be linear.\nFor instance, a straight line is used to describe the relationship if the two variables were plotted on a graph using an X and Y\naxis. Sometimes, two variables will have a relationship that is described by a line that curves. The use of the formula for r is\nrestricted to relationships that are linear.
The correlation coefficient measures only the degree of association between two variables. It is important to remember that\nr is not a measure of cause and effect. A large positive r does not mean that if one variable is large, this causes the other variable\nto be large.
The formula for r is :"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-482-485-sidebar-explaining-r-by-jim-bianco-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-482-485-sidebar-explaining-r-by-jim-bianco-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-482-485-sidebar-explaining-r-by-jim-bianco-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-crbbond-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (482-485): Comparing The CRB With Bonds by Jim Bianco, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Comparing The CRB With Bonds\nby Jim Bianco, C.M.T.
The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) price index and the bond market have frequently been\ncompared in the past because of their interrelated natures. The CRB is considered to be an indicator of\ninflation, and changes in the rate of inflation can affect investors' desire to hold bonds. The index, which\ntracks 21 commodities, is weighted toward agricultural products (about 62%), and because of its\nemphasis on agriculture, some investors tend to disregard it — an error, because the index serves as an\nexcellent proxy for commodity inflation.
To determine whether the comparison between the CRB and the bond market is viable, to conduct our\nanalysis, we chose the Chicago Board of Trade continuous bond futures contract as a proxy for the bond\nmarket. This contract was preferable to a total return index because we were concerned with finding\ncorrelations of only price movement.
Figure 1 illustrates the negative relationship between bond futures and the CRB (bottom and top,\nrespectively); when one goes up, the other goes down. On Figure 2, the actual correlation (a rolling\ntwo-year correlation) between the CRB and the bond contract is plotted above the bond contract. The\nresults confirm what we would expect from Figure 1; a strong negative correlation exists between the\nCRB and bonds. For most of the last eight years, the correlation between the CRB and bonds has been\nless than -0.5, meaning statistically, 25% of the movement in bonds can be \""explained\"" by movements in\nthe CRB. Also note that the same study on the currencies to bonds and the Standard & Poor's 500 to\nbonds did not yield results as statistically significant as the CRB-to-bonds relationship."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-482-485-comparing-the-crb-with-bonds-by-jim-bianco-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-482-485-comparing-the-crb-with-bonds-by-jim-bianco-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-482-485-comparing-the-crb-with-bonds-by-jim-bianco-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-fittin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (486-487): Fitting a Trendline by Least Squares by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fitting A Trendline By Least Squares\nby Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Usually, trendlines are drawn through tops or bottoms. They are also drawn through the center of\nprices by a lagged moving average or by eye (Figure 1). A straight line through the center of a price\nchannel, if the scale is logarithmic, will give you the percentage growth or decline rate.
If the straight line is drawn by eye, it is subject to debate. This question can be resolved by a\nmathematically calculated line called \""least squares\"" (Figure 2). The deviations of the points from the line\nare marked A, B, C, D and E in Figure 2. The line produced by the least squares calculation reduces the\nsum of the squares of these deviations to a minimum, hence the name \""least squares.\""
The formula for a straight line is:
Y = a + bX
where X is the value of the X (horizontal) axis. When X is zero, Y equals a, which is called the Y\nintercept (Figure 3). The distance from this level up to the line is bX, which is directly proportional to b,\nthe slope of the line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-486-487-fitting-a-trendline-by-least-squares-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-486-487-fitting-a-trendline-by-least-squares-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-486-487-fitting-a-trendline-by-least-squares-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-sidebu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (486-487): SIDEBAR: UNDERSTANDING STANDARD MATHEMATICAL SYMBOLS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""UNDERSTANDING STANDARD\nMATHEMATICAL SYMBOLS
It is inevitable that today's technician will encounter steps to calculating an indicator that uses standard\nmathematical symbols that appear to be beyond simple arithmetic. In reality, these symbols are simply\nshorthand notation for no more than basic arithmetic. The following is a guide and interpretation to\nmathematical symbols commonly seen in STOCKS & COMMODITIES.
By convention, the first few lowercase letters of the Roman alphabet (a, b, c) are used to denote constant\nterms or coefficients. A constant is simply a value that does not change. For example, if a formula states\nthat a = 1.5, then whenever you see the a in the formula you know that you can substitute 1.5. A\ncoefficient is a factor in a product. If you see bx in a formula, then you know that the variable x is\nmultiplied by the coefficient b. Variables are typically denoted by the last few letters of the Roman\nalphabet (x, y and z). A variable can be any observed value such as today's closing price of the stock\nmarket. Statistics will use capital letters of the alphabet (X, Y and Z) as variables.
A subscript is used with the variable to define a list of differing values from the same set of values. A set\nof values could be the last month's daily closing prices of a stock. The daily closing price of a stock could\nbe assigned the variables x1, x2, x3, x4, x5 ... xi for each individual day. The notation for the subscript\nvalue is identified by the letter i. Sometimes, a formula will instruct to use a specific quantity of observed\nvalues — for example, the last five days' closing prices . The notation for the number of variables is the\nletter n. In the previous example, therefore, n = 5."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-486-487-sidebar-understanding-standard-mathematical-symbols-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-486-487-sidebar-understanding-standard-mathematical-symbols-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-486-487-sidebar-understanding-standard-mathematical-symbols-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-mrkfuel-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (488-491): Market Fuel And Technical Analysis by D. Earl Essig"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Fuel And Technical Analysis\nby D. Earl Essig
When traders hunt for the Holy Grail of commodity trading in futures and options, obvious clues to\nmarket direction are often overlooked. One such oversight generally occurs in analyzing price patterns as\nrelated to volume and open interest. Definitions may also differ from trader to trader, causing further\nconfusion. Here, both definition and situation can be clarified and summarized to make the task of\ndetecting market direction easier.
SOME BASIC DEFINITIONS
Total volume: The amount of contracts traded on any given day of all listed months combined.
Total open interest: The total amount of contract positions not offset both long (buying) and short\n(selling) in all months combined."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-488-491-market-fuel-and-technical-analysis-by-d-earl-essig-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-488-491-market-fuel-and-technical-analysis-by-d-earl-essig-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-488-491-market-fuel-and-technical-analysis-by-d-earl-essig-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-online-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (492-494): On-Line Data Addiction by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""On-Line Data Addiction\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
One of the most useful tools for the modern trader is the on-line quote monitor, which gives the trader\na minute-by-minute picture of what is going on in the market. It allows the trader to position a trade much\nmore advantageously than someone who does not have such access. Thus, it can theoretically save or\nmake a trader thousands of dollars. In many cases, however, the on-line computer can also be a trader's\nworst enemy. Find out if having a quote screen in front of you is beneficial or harmful to you by\nanswering \""true\"" or \""false\"" to these statements:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-492-494-on-line-data-addiction-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-492-494-on-line-data-addiction-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-492-494-on-line-data-addiction-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-candles-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (495-498): Candlesticks And Preserving Capital by Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Candlesticks And Preserving Capital\nby Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny
Candlestick analysis, the Japanese charting method introduced by Steve Nison to Western technicians\nonly a few years ago, has been slowly gaining acceptance to help the technician make profitable trading\ndecisions. As candlesticks become more common among Western technicians, an amalgam of\ncandlesticks and traditional Western analytical rules will emerge. An important but often overlooked\ntrading rule that may benefit is the use of protective stop-loss techniques to preserve capital and\nencourage sound money management.
Traders must cultivate the use of stop-loss techniques in order to become successful, because his or her\nsuccess is not gauged by a single trade but rather in overall performance. Traders know they must\nmaximize profits and minimize drawdowns if they are to succeed. Professional traders know that risk\ndefinition is a primary component of the trading formula.
Every trader is different, and so each has a unique form of capital preservation they rely on. Candlesticks\noffer three pattern groups that aid in the protection of trading equity. Often they are referred to as the\n\""three Cs\"" of candlesticks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-495-498-candlesticks-and-preserving-capital-by-gary-s-wagner-and-bradley-l-matheny-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-495-498-candlesticks-and-preserving-capital-by-gary-s-wagner-and-bradley-l-matheny-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-495-498-candlesticks-and-preserving-capital-by-gary-s-wagner-and-bradley-l-matheny-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-fidelit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (499-504): Fidelity's Philip Erlanger by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fidelity's Philip Erlanger by Thom Hartle
Fidelity Management and Research Co.'s senior technical analyst Philip Erlanger is a major force\nbehind one of the most successful managed-fund companies in the country. He arrived at technical\nanalysis in a roundabout way starting as a stock broker for Reynolds Securities in the 1970s, getting\ninterested in computers along the way even before the I BM PC revolutionized the industry and working as\nan analyst for Advest before coming to Fidelity, where he analyzes industry groups stocks and the market\nlooking at junk bonds and currencies. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Philip\nErlanger on September 20, 1991 via telephone and among other topics asked him about his use of short\ninterest data and his absolute strength index.
\""If you pick industry groups that have technical merit and mirror your portfolios to look like the stronger\ngroups and follow them over time you will be able to use that as a discipline.\"" —Philip Erlanger"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-499-504-fidelity-s-philip-erlanger-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-499-504-fidelity-s-philip-erlanger-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-499-504-fidelity-s-philip-erlanger-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-sidebb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (499-504): SIDEBAR: BUYS AND SELLS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""BUYS AND SELLS
In Figure 3a, the greatest buying opportunity occurs when price action becomes strong at a time that\nmany are doubters. Depicted are indicators of both price strength and investor sentiment. Relative and\nabsolute strength are indicators of price. When Merrill's relative strength line is rising, its stock price is\noutperforming the market. When Merrill's absolute strength line is rising, then Merrill's stock is behaving\nbetter than it typically does, given Merrill's beta and the current market action. (Beta measures a stock's\nsensitivity to the direction of the market.) Points P1 to P2 show price advancing to a peak in mid-1989.\nWhile relative strength was flat, absolute strength was declining, suggesting that the stock was\nresponding to the market's advance in a weaker-than-normal way. After the peak in price, profitable short\nselling occurred — whenever the shorts make money, the technical underpinnings for a stock are\nconsidered weak. Toward the end of 1990, as price and relative strength sank to new lows at points P3 to\nP4 and R3 to R4, absolute strength turned up (points A3 to A4). The shaded area begins at a time where\nclearly price is strong, as both relative and absolute strength are trending upward. Doubters added fuel for\nthe advance, as the short interest ratio was relatively high. All the ingredients for a buying opportunity\nwere in place."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-499-504-sidebar-buys-and-sells-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-499-504-sidebar-buys-and-sells-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-499-504-sidebar-buys-and-sells-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-sidebs-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (499-504): SIDEBAR: SHORT INTEREST AND LEVEL OF PAIN"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SHORT INTEREST AND LEVEL OF PAIN
Generally, short interest is a monthly statistic presented on a current-month versus previous-month basis.\nViewing one or two months of short interest data is, unfortunately, a tantalizing but less than satisfying\nexperience. To appreciate short interest data, it is necessary to gather as much historical information as\npossible, including price and volume as well as short interest data. The objective is to determine which\nstocks and groups have been most \""wrongfully\"" shorted — that is, the degree that price has advanced\nagainst established short positions. Such measurement is referred to as the short's level of pain.
To gauge the short's level of pain, some data need to be known: Is there a significant short interest\nposition (Figure 1), and has price advanced against that short position, and by how much?
The first point is essential. If the short interest position is minor, the prospects for a short squeeze are in\nturn at best minor. A common denominator for judging the intensity of short selling requires knowing the\nhistory of short selling in a stock or group. Knowing that the soft drink group has a short interest ratio of\n3.65 is not nearly as informative as knowing that 3.65 is the highest ratio in more than four years!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-499-504-sidebar-short-interest-and-level-of-pain-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-499-504-sidebar-short-interest-and-level-of-pain-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-499-504-sidebar-short-interest-and-level-of-pain-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-assessi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (505-507): Assessing Risk In An Equity Portfolio by Jean-Olivier Fraisse, C.F.A."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Assessing Risk In An Equity Portfolio\nby Jean-Olivier Fraisse, C.F.A.
Portfolio management is a balancing act — enhancing returns by systematically investing in the most\npromising assets while simultaneously limiting the variance of returns (that is, risk). What is the nature of\ninvestment risk in an equity portfolio and how is it measured?
When considering an asset for inclusion in a portfolio, most investors will focus on the asset's expected\ntotal return and on the variance of returns. While high expected returns are desirable, a large variance\nimplies a wide dispersion of returns, and thus, a high level of risk (see sidebar, \""Assessing a single equity\nplacement\"").
When combining several investments into a portfolio, the expected return for the portfolio is the average\nof the returns on the individual assets, duly weighted by each asset's cost in relation to total portfolio cost.\nThe variance of portfolio returns, however, bears no simple relationship with the variance of returns on\nthe individual assets, because the returns on any two assets may peak and ebb at the same time,\nincreasing the variance of portfolio returns; or they may compensate for each other, the return on one\nasset peaking while the other is ebbing, thus reducing the variance of portfolio returns. The relationship\nbetween two assets' returns is captured by their coefficient of correlation, which measures the direction\nand degree of association of their return fluctuations, and their covariance, which measures the magnitude\nof the fluctuations for the combined assets. (The corresponding formulas are shown in sidebar,\n\""Measuring association between returns on two assets.\"")"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-505-507-assessing-risk-in-an-equity-portfolio-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-c-f-a-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-505-507-assessing-risk-in-an-equity-portfolio-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-c-f-a-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-505-507-assessing-risk-in-an-equity-portfolio-by-jean-olivier-fraisse-c-f-a-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-sideba-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (505-507): SIDEBAR: ASSESSING A SINGLE EQUITY INVESTMENT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""ASSESSING A SINGLE EQUITY
INVESTMENT
The total return on an equity investment reflects both capital gains and periodic income such as dividend\npayments. Specifically:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-505-507-sidebar-assessing-a-single-equity-investment-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-505-507-sidebar-assessing-a-single-equity-investment-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-505-507-sidebar-assessing-a-single-equity-investment-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-sidebm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (505-507): SIDEBAR: MEASURING ASSOCIATION BETWEEN RETURNS ON TWO ASSETS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MEASURING ASSOCIATION BETWEEN\nRETURNS ON TWO ASSETS
The covariance between the total returns on two assets X and Y is defined as the average over the entire\nperiod of the products consisting of asset X's return in a given subperiod less its average return for the\nwhole period, multiplied by asset Y's subperiod return less its average return. Specifically:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-505-507-sidebar-measuring-association-between-returns-on-two-assets-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-505-507-sidebar-measuring-association-between-returns-on-two-assets-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-505-507-sidebar-measuring-association-between-returns-on-two-assets-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-essence-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (508-511): The Essence Of Dow Theory: Confirmation And Divergence by Richard L. Evans"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Essence Of Dow Theory: Confirmation And\nDivergence\nby Richard L. Evans
The Dow theory tenet that the Dow Jones Industrials and Dow Jones Transports must \""confirm\"" one\nanother is listed perfunctorily in most Dow theory discussions, but confirmations and divergences are the\ngist of Dow theory. In an article in the July 1991 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I discussed some nuances of\nDow theory divergence and nonconfirmation. Briefly, Dow theory says that both the industrial and the\ntransportation averages must confirm to have forecasting implications. Any signal on the part of one\nindex without confirmation by the other is apt to be deceptive, if not outright negative.
However, I also pointed out that the Dow theory divergence and nonconfirmation tenet is one of the most\nmisinterpreted facets of the theory. Some popular interpretations of Dow theory tend to be strictly\nstatistical trend classification versus directional trend classification.
The statistical classification, which places heavy reliance on the averages jointly moving past a\npredetermined critical point, is by definition all hindsight, as it classifies what has happened. But nothing\nin Dow theory prevents us from drawing inferences about market trends, although some previous critical\npoint may not have been penetrated. Instead, volume and the position of prices relative to the duration\nand extent of the primary and secondary trends can and should be used to make bullish or bearish\ninferences. The statistical classification of the trends should serve more to confirm or not confirm earlier\nimplications in the averages."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-508-511-the-essence-of-dow-theory-confirmation-and-divergence-by-richard-l-evans-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-508-511-the-essence-of-dow-theory-confirmation-and-divergence-by-richard-l-evans-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-508-511-the-essence-of-dow-theory-confirmation-and-divergence-by-richard-l-evans-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-eclipse-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (512-515): Trading The Eclipse Cycle by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., C.T.A."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading The Eclipse Cycle\nby Hans Hannula, Ph.D., C.T.A.
The ancients saw eclipses of the sun and moon as something mysterious and magical. The high priest\nof the day controlled the masses by telling them: \""Look out, there is an eclipse coming. Do as I say to\navoid its ill effects.\"" The modern-day equivalent, the modern stock market adviser, advises the trading\nand investing masses much the same way: \""Look out, there is an eclipse coming. Trade and invest as I\nsay to avoid its ill effects.\""
And sometimes there is an effect. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for August 6, 1990,\nfor an example. The intraday chart of August 7 shows that the market opened with a dramatic 100-point\nplus nosedive, which stopped abruptly at 10:15. At 10:10 that morning, a lunar eclipse peaked. The\ntrading masses were somehow affected.
But often there is no effect. Do eclipses really matter, or are these high priests simply repeating the\nfolklore handed down by others? Do eclipses really cause trend changes? Do these trend changes really\noccur regularly, or is this just market folklore? Is there a rational explanation of how eclipses could affect\nmarkets? Let's look at the eclipse cycle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-512-515-trading-the-eclipse-cycle-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-c-t-a-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-512-515-trading-the-eclipse-cycle-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-c-t-a-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-512-515-trading-the-eclipse-cycle-by-hans-hannula-ph-d-c-t-a-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c12-stoppin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:12 (516-518): \""Stopping\"" A System by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""\""Stopping\"" A System\nby John Sweeney
Once you get hold of an idea, it's often tough to get rid of it, especially if it shows no promise\nwhatever. It tugs at the back of the mind—what was it about the original insight? What was valid? What\nwas bogus? I hate to admit that my subconscious could have produced a bummer. Closing last month's\nSettlement, I mused, \""Reasonable progress, but what next? Could something simple work profitably?\""
My first thought on returning to the subject and reviewing Figures 1a and 1b was that the losses were\npretty big. Those needed to be reduced in size, if not number. Second, November and December had been\nremoved from the graph! Looking at the work sheet, the data did indeed end in October now instead of\nDecember. Loading the same data file into a fresh model showed the same result. I checked the other data\nfiles, but they were intact. I put in a puzzled call to developer Jim Payne and decided to move on with the\nremaining data, since it covered all the trades the original trading model had taken.
In the profit and loss column, I noted several losses over $1,000. I like to keep losses to $600 to $700, so\nthese were obvious candidates for stops. Looking down the max loss column, I noted only one winner\nwith a loss of more than $1,000 —a trade that eventually produced a $6,006 profit. Only one losing trade\nwould have been worse off by cutting its loss at $1,000. I scribed a square about its $1,150 max loss.
Parenthetically, System Writer Plus's (SWP) manual is mute on whether the max loss is an intraday figure\nor a figure based on the closes, and thus another curious call to the support folks. Busy, busy, busy.\nMaybe later."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-516-518-stopping-a-system-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-516-518-stopping-a-system-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-12-516-518-stopping-a-system-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-oftrend-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (49-52): Of Trends And Random Walks by E. Michael Poulos"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Of Trends And Random Walks\nby E. Michael Poulos
M y distrust of the current crop of technical indicators that use fixed-length lookback intervals, with\nno attempt to use a price-time model, motivated me to do some research into the subject. For example,\none sees chart services publishing a nine-day stochastic and/or relative strength indicator. A variety of\nother indicators using moving averages or the difference between moving averages also use fixed lengths.\nBut there simply is no justification for using nine (or any other fixed number of days) as some sort of\nsacred number.
The first six days of Figure 1, part a, have exactly the same moving average value as the first six days of\nFigure 1, part b. The close of the seventh day, X, is exactly the same value in both cases. Thus, this kind\nof indicator would yield exactly the same number for two very different market conditions. The problem\nis not only the fixed-length lookback; the smoothing effect of the moving average destroys all\ninformation about the shape of the market movement. An exponential moving average would do a little\nbetter here, but it too would lose far too much shape information.
The five-day moving average (MA) of Figure 1, part c, is equal to the five-day moving average of Figure\n1, part d. The eight-day moving averages of the two are also equal. They would therefore show exactly\nthe same differences of MAs for two very different price movements. The possibility of an uptrend\nindication in one case and downtrend in the other during the last five days is completely lost. The major\nproblem at this point is loss of shape information.
In Figure 1, parts e and f, the sum of the upclose changes are equal and the sum of the downclose changes\nare equal. The RSI calculation would show the same neutral indication in both cases. Not only do the two\ncases differ dramatically, their last five days might be indicative of a strong trend, one down and the other\nup."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-49-52-of-trends-and-random-walks-by-e-michael-poulos-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-49-52-of-trends-and-random-walks-by-e-michael-poulos-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-49-52-of-trends-and-random-walks-by-e-michael-poulos-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-lettmer-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (53-54): SIDEBAR: LETTERS TO AUTHOR MERRILL"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters in response to Arthur Merrill's article, \""The 28% Rule\"", page 54."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-53-54-sidebar-letters-to-author-merrill-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-53-54-sidebar-letters-to-author-merrill-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-53-54-sidebar-letters-to-author-merrill-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-rule-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (53-54): The 28% Rule by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The 28% Rule\nby Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
A bear market is interrupted by rallies, which cheer the spirits but are then followed by a resumption of\nthe bear market. Finally, one of the rallies turns out to be the first upswing of a new bull market, and\nprices begin to zigzag upward.
Is there any characteristic of the first bull swing that differentiates it from the preceding bear market\nrallies? We'll know that the tide has turned after prices really start to make higher highs and higher lows,\nbut can we get the news earlier?
Yes. I've discovered that the simple magnitude of the first bull swing is more enthusiastic than the\npreceding rallies in the bear market.
To eliminate a lot of noise, I ignored all moves of less than 5%, and then compared the rallies in 19 bear\nmarkets with the first upswing of the following bull markets."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-53-54-the-28-rule-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-53-54-the-28-rule-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-53-54-the-28-rule-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-convert-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (55-57): Converting Data Files by Franz Hrazdira"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Converting Data Files\nby Franz Hrazdira
Most charting programs work with historical data stored in files of a specific data structure best suited\nto that program to access, process and present. Only one source I know of, Telescan in Houston, TX,\nsupplies the user with a program that can receive, store and reproduce the actual graphs as screen images\nrather than working with sets of numbers.
In most cases, we choose a charting and analysis program for a special reason, which may be a particular\nfunction, study or feature not found in another program. As long as each of our programs can convert its\nfiles into American Standard Code for Information Interchange (more familiarly known as ASCII) format\n(export) and can convert ASCII files into their own format (import), all our programs will be able to\nshare all our data files.
You may be, for instance, a MetaStock or other trading software user with a number of existing files of\nstock and futures data to which you would like to apply an optimization for the most profitable\ncombination of moving averages, analyze the data and chart and print the results. The ideal way to\nperform this task is with the N2-Access Plot & EXport (APEX) program. Converting your current files\ninto ASCII should be no problem using existing utilities; but converting ASCII format files to your\ntrading software file format may be limited. The access data features of APEX is currently limited to\nmanually inputting data or downloading data from Warner. If you want to use your existing data from\nyour current trading system, however, you need to export that data into ASCII file format, then convert\nthe ASCII data to APEX's NDX file format."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-55-57-converting-data-files-by-franz-hrazdira-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-55-57-converting-data-files-by-franz-hrazdira-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-55-57-converting-data-files-by-franz-hrazdira-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-sidebc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (55-57): SIDEBAR: CONVERTING ASCII TO APEX NDX FILE FORMATS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CONVERTING ASCII TO APEX NDX FILE\nFORMATS
Steps to convert ASCII to APEX NDX file formats, pages 56-57."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-55-57-sidebar-converting-ascii-to-apex-ndx-file-formats-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-55-57-sidebar-converting-ascii-to-apex-ndx-file-formats-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-55-57-sidebar-converting-ascii-to-apex-ndx-file-formats-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-keeping-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (58-60): Keeping A Trading Journal by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Keeping A Trading Journal\nby Thom Hartle
Success in trading the markets does not come overnight. It is probable that the novice who profits early\nand easily in his trading career will view the gains as the easiest money he or she ever made. It is also\nvery likely, however, that the trading newcomer stumbled into a powerful bull market, in his innocence\nbuying the market, either placing stops very far away or not using stops at all and watching mistimed\nentries become profitable only because of the continued strength of a bull market. Emboldened by his\nsuccess, the new trader will increase his trading equity and, unfortunately, acquire habits along the way\nthat backfire sooner or later, returning the easily gained equity and more back to the marketplace.
At this point, the new trader will be forced to conclude that perhaps this trading business is a lot harder\nthan it appeared at first. The novice has learned a valuable lesson, moving from the blissful but dangerous\nstage of not knowing what one does not know to the stage of knowing that one does not know. At least\nnow the new trader will not be as dangerous to himself.
The novice trader may undertake any number of steps to gain trading experience and wisdom. Of all the\napproaches that are possible, one of the best to improve trading technique is keeping a trading journal."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-58-60-keeping-a-trading-journal-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-58-60-keeping-a-trading-journal-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-58-60-keeping-a-trading-journal-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-sidebu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (61-64): SIDEBAR: USING OPTION RATIOS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""USING OPTION RATIOS
AnCall/put TRIN as a market sentiment indicator, page 64.
To many traders and investors, the limited-risk aspect of the purchase of both call and put options is\nappealing. Many market followers believe that when the major activity is concentrated in either calls\n(bullish expectations) or puts (bearish expectations), extremes in crowd psychology will appear."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-61-64-sidebar-using-option-ratios-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-61-64-sidebar-using-option-ratios-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-61-64-sidebar-using-option-ratios-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-updatin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (61-64): Updating Option Ratios With Market Sentiment by James P. Martin"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Updating Option Ratios With Market Sentiment\nby James P. Martin
Is it true that market sentiment indicators no longer work? That's the word from many traders and\nmarket timing advisors in the past several months. They say that so many \""pseudo contrarians\"" now\nfollow call/put ratios, advisory sentiment surveys, public short selling activity, and so on, that traders are\nno longer sure whether to bet against the consensus of the public or the consensus of pseudo contrarians.\nThey may think they are going against the herd, when in fact they are part of it!
Many traders are indeed feeling frustrated by the apparent ineffectiveness of sentiment indicators. While\nmany readers commended me for the insight I provided into the behavior of options traders in my article\nin the June 1990 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I stressed that the call/put TRIN is by no means flawless and\nwas not a pinpoint timing tool. It requires qualitative interpretation and is best used in conjunction with\nother tools to enhance its success. As the sophistication of the markets has evolved, traders must expect\nthe interpretation of market sentiment to require more sophisticated thinking as well.
PREDICTABILITY
The problem may be in part that technicians have become too predictable. So many good technical\nanalysts are in the markets now that we are stumbling over ourselves. You only have to watch the actions\nof the central banks to realize that. Why is it that currency intervention nearly always seems to occur at\nmajor chart support or resistance? Why is it that the Federal Reserve adds or drains reserves conveniently\nwhen bills and Euros are oversold or overbought? The real \""powers that be\"" have also grown more\ntechnically astute to maximize the impact of their actions. Since the time of my earlier article, events\nhave occurred in the markets that corroborate several of my earlier observations, demonstrating how\ntraders must refine their thinking regarding contrary opinion and dig a little deeper for clues to extremes\nin market sentiment."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-61-64-updating-option-ratios-with-market-sentiment-by-james-p-martin-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-61-64-updating-option-ratios-with-market-sentiment-by-james-p-martin-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-61-64-updating-option-ratios-with-market-sentiment-by-james-p-martin-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-pseudo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (65-68): Pseudo-Stock Specialist by Mark Harris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pseudo-Stock Specialist\nby Mark Harris
In \""Pseudo Stocks,\"" STOCKS & COMMODITIES, December 1990, I showed some stock charts from a\nrandom number generator resembling real life to an astonishing degree and some simple rules for price\ntransitions. Now, I would like to model a \""specialist.\"" This will add volume to the charts and,\nadditionally, we can see which situations are good or bad for our hypothetical market maker.
As a disclaimer, let me state right at the outset that I haven't a clue how a real-life specialist goes about\nmaking a market for the stocks in which he specializes, how he manages financial accounting, nor what\nhe does when a large imbalance of orders exists. In this simulation, a \""specialist\"" is simply a Smalltalk\nprogram object (that is, a class) that responds to certain messages (requests).
My so-called specialist runs the price transitions in the simulation. For a first cut, the specialist will fill\nbuy orders at one tick above the current price (the asked price) and fill sell orders at one tick below (the\nbid price). For now, the specialist will be indifferent to the size of the order — 10,000 shares will be\ntreated the same as a single lot of 100 shares. (There are no odd lots in this simulation.) In the simulation,\na market day is 20 transactions — which is totally arbitrary.
A random number generator produces a random number in the range of -1.0 to +1.0. The sign of the\nnumber determines if it's buy or sell (plus is buy, minus is sell). The size of the number determines how\nmany shares. Thus, over a large number of samples, the ratio of buy to sell orders should be very nearly 1.
Even more arbitrary is setting the range for volume. Absolute values don't mean anything, since\neverything in the simulation is scaled. But there needs to be some way to set the probability for the size of\nthe order."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-65-68-pseudo-stock-specialist-by-mark-harris-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-65-68-pseudo-stock-specialist-by-mark-harris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-65-68-pseudo-stock-specialist-by-mark-harris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-sidebw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (69-71): SIDEBAR: THE WYCKOFF WAVE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE WYCKOFF WAVE
The Wyckoff wave used as a common stock price index, page 71."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-69-71-sidebar-the-wyckoff-wave-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-69-71-sidebar-the-wyckoff-wave-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-69-71-sidebar-the-wyckoff-wave-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-wyckoff-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (69-71): Wyckoff: Relative Strength And Weakness by Craig Schroeder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff: Relative Strength And Weakness\nby Craig Schroeder
In his course in stock market science and technique, Richard D. Wyckoff stated the basics of his method\nin five steps:
Step 1: Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. Then decide how you\nare going to play the game: long, short or neutral.
Step 2: In a bull market, select from those stocks in harmony with the market the ones that are\nstronger than the market. In a bear market, select those that are weaker than the market.
Step 3: Using point and figure charts, select those stocks that have built up a potential count for a\nmove in keeping with your goals.
Step 4: Determine each stock's readiness to move. Analyze the vertical and figure charts of the\ncandidates with the help of the buying and selling tests.
Step 5: Time your commitments with a turn in the market.
The five steps of the Wyckoff method can be divided into three groups that ask and help answer three\nimportant questions. Step 1 stands alone and asks the question what. Steps 2 through 4 can be grouped\ntogether and ask the question who. Step 5 stands alone and asks the question when. Therefore, by\nemploying all five steps, the investor or speculator can determine what type of market operation to\nundertake, which individual stocks or bonds represent the best candidate(s) and when the best time is to\nmake a commitment."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-69-71-wyckoff-relative-strength-and-weakness-by-craig-schroeder-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-69-71-wyckoff-relative-strength-and-weakness-by-craig-schroeder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-69-71-wyckoff-relative-strength-and-weakness-by-craig-schroeder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-ralphbl-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (72-75): Ralph Bloch: 34-Year Trading Veteran by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Ralph Bloch: 34-Year Trading Veteran by Thom Hartle
Ralph Bloch, senior vice president and chief market analyst for Raymond James, has been active as a\ntechnical analyst on Wall Street since 1956 and has been writing weekly technical commentary for\nMansfield Chart Service for the past six years. STOCK & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed\nhim via telephone on November 20,1990, to get his views on the markets, technical analysis and Wall\nStreet of the past 35 years.
I have a very limited and narrow view and somehow I've survived (trading) 34 years. —Ralph Bloch
I'd like to start off with some of your personal history, your background. You've been in the business\n35 years...
April will be 35 years. I went through started to break out very strongly on the in the olden days. Merrill\nLynch used to have a junior exec training program, of which I somehow slipped through the cracks, and\nthey accepted me. At that time there were probably only two or three guys on the Street practicing\nwitchcraft, which is how technical analysis used to be viewed. There was Tony Tabell's father, Ed Tabell,\nwho was at Walston, and then there was John Shultz, who is still around and who used to write for\nForbes. So technical analysis, when I got started, was really viewed as looney tunes. I got involved with\nit when I first realized and learned probably the most basic rule in stock market knowledge: that the\nmarket is here, and that the stock market's primary rule in life is to anticipate and discount the future. I\nwent through the program at Merrill Lynch from 1956-58; a recession started in 1957. The market peaked\nin August of '57 and then fell some 20% into October of '57. That proved to be the low point.
From then on, the market went through the inevitable backing and filling in a relatively narrow range into\nearly spring of '58 as I recall, the go-go stocks — the glamor stocks, as we used to refer to them — the\nTexas Instruments, items like that — started to break out very strongly on the upside, and by March or\nApril, the rest of the market started to follow suit. May of '58, as it turned out, was the low point of the\nrecession."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-72-75-ralph-bloch-34-year-trading-veteran-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-72-75-ralph-bloch-34-year-trading-veteran-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-72-75-ralph-bloch-34-year-trading-veteran-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-trendli-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (77-80): Trendlines by Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trendlines\nby Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle
Trendlines are those lines drawn on charts to assist the technician in analyzing a market. A trendline\ndrawn below rising prices is known as a demand, or oversold, line, while a trendline drawn above\ndeclining prices is known as a supply, or overbought, line. The direction of the trend is indicated by the\nascending trendline or the declining trendline. A penetration of the trendline by price is clear evidence of\na change in the trend. In addition, trendlines also give an analyst the added benefits of gauging whether a\ntrend is accelerating or on the verge of dying out, setting price objectives for trend reversals and choosing\ntarget prices at which to increase the size of a short or long position.
In the classic uptrend, highs and lows both get higher. The trendline is drawn through at least two, and\npreferably three, ascending lows. The first step is to identify the low prices on a bar chart that are\nsignificant in regard to the establishment of the up trendline. Since an up trendline is another name for a\ndemand line, then looking for any evidence of demand is the first step in determining the placement of\nthe trendline. Typically, demand patterns will encompass two to five trading days. The simplest pattern ..\nis basically a three-day head-and-shoulders bottom, as shown in Figure 1. The low for Day 1 is surpassed\non Day 2, while on Day 3 the low for that day is at the approximate price level established on Day 1. Day\n1 is the left shoulder, while Day 2 represents the head and Day 3 is the right shoulder. The low on Day 3\n— at the same level as Day 1 — indicates that buyers are increasing their level of commitment or\nwillingness to buy aggressively. This is a positive sign of demand.
Another demand pattern is a two-day double bottom (Figure 2). Here, the buyers have established long\npositions two days consecutively. During an uptrend, a demand line should be drawn connecting these\npatterns (Figure 3, points a and b). Projecting this line forward will establish price levels that the technical analyst will be able to use to anticipate demand or support for the market. Similarly, in a\ndowntrend, the lows continually move lower, as do the highs. The down trendline represents a supply line."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-77-80-trendlines-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-77-80-trendlines-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-77-80-trendlines-by-melanie-f-bowman-and-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-calcula-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (80-81): Calculating Interest With the Rule of 72 by Raymond Rothschild"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Calculating Interest With the Rule of 72\nby Raymond Rothschild
Despite the convenience these days of computers, business calculators and the like, it is often desirable\nto perform some calculations either mentally or using pencil and paper. After all, one doesn't always have\nthe trusty laptop readily available — if you have one at all. Toward this end, I would like to recommend\nthe Rule of 72 when doing certain interest evaluations.
Curiously, I was first introduced to this rule when attending a seminar on estate planning. The presenting\nlawyer explained that if an amount of money was placed in a bank at compound interest until it doubled,\nthe interest rate times the number of years would approximately equal 72. He dubbed this phenomenon\n\""The Rule of 72.\""
Despite my interest in mathematical tidbits, I had never heard of this relationship before. Was this rule\nsome quirk of nature, like Fibonacci numbers? Intrigued, I decided to investigate this premise using\nmathematical techniques. The algebraic calculations involved are shown in the sidebar, \""Derivation of\nthe Rule of 72.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-80-81-calculating-interest-with-the-rule-of-72-by-raymond-rothschild-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-80-81-calculating-interest-with-the-rule-of-72-by-raymond-rothschild-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-80-81-calculating-interest-with-the-rule-of-72-by-raymond-rothschild-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-sidebde-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (80-81): SIDEBAR: DERIVATION OF THE RULE OF 72"",""caption-linebreaks"":""DERIVATION OF THE RULE OF 72
The mathematics behind the rule of 72, stating that if an amount is invested at a compound interest rate until it doubles in value, then the product of the number of years (or periods) and the interest rate is approximately equal to 72; page 81."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-80-81-sidebar-derivation-of-the-rule-of-72-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-80-81-sidebar-derivation-of-the-rule-of-72-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-80-81-sidebar-derivation-of-the-rule-of-72-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-neuraln-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (82-86): Neural Nets In Technical Analysis by Yin Lung Shih"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Neural Nets In Technical Analysis\nby Yin Lung Shih
The technical analysis of price data requires a mix of mathematical technique, experience and intuition.\nAnyone with a background in high school math can understand, or at least calculate, the mathematical\nfunctions that have been developed to transform raw price series into more meaningful charts.\nExperience, on the other hand, takes time to develop, and intuition is even more difficult to obtain (and\nindeed may never come at all). Yet it may be intuition, more than anything, that filters out the mass of\ninformation available to settle on the precise combination and interpretation of technical indicators\nappropriate to a trading opportunity.
What is intuition? One definition might be the unconscious application of the brain's innate\npattern-matching capabilities to shapes, symbols, quantities, events and concepts in a given situation,\nresulting in the perception of previously \""hidden\"" correlations. No conscious reasoning takes place, but a\nvast amount of indirect and inferential processing does occur.
Recent work on simulated \""brains,\"" called neural networks, has opened up the possibility of supplying\nthis kind of learning and inference to many applications. Neural nets are emulations of biological\nneurons, the most sophisticated collection of which is the human brain. While digital computers are built\naround Boolean (true/false) operations, biological neurons can process a continuous range of intermediate\nvalues (for example, not-quite, maybe, almost) as well. More important, biological neurons can learn\nfrom experience, they detect subtle relationships between varied inputs and adapt to changing and/or\nuncertain circumstances."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-82-86-neural-nets-in-technical-analysis-by-yin-lung-shih-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-82-86-neural-nets-in-technical-analysis-by-yin-lung-shih-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-82-86-neural-nets-in-technical-analysis-by-yin-lung-shih-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-fuzzy-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (87-90): Fuzzy Expert Systems by J.F. Derry"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fuzzy Expert Systems\nby J.F. Derry
Expert systems give the technical analyst a potent set of tools to dissect trading and investment\nproblems in short order.
For traders and investors alike, the real problem with both technical and fundamental methods is that of\nlaying out current after-tax dollars in the expectation of future before-tax profits based solely upon the\nguidance of 20/20 hindsight generated through past experience. However investment and trading\nopportunities are analyzed, investment decisions should depend upon as large a body of expertise as\npossible. Such expertise can be captured in computer software in the form of an expert system, which\nmay contain knowledge of fundamental or technical technique or both. Although many forms of expert\nsystems can be (and have been) applied to securities trading and investment, for my purposes I am\nconcentrating on a small but usable expert system based on fuzzy logic as a demonstration project and\nhow to use fuzzy logic programming in everyday practice.
FUZZY LOGIC AND MEMBERSHIP FUNCTION
As originally stated by L.A. Zadeh, the concept of fuzzy logic was roughly as follows: If propositional\nlogic is modified to permit use of any value in the range of 0 to 1 rather than only the \""crisp\"" binary\nvalues of 0 and 1, then the resulting \""fuzzy\"" logic should be able to accommodate linguistic information."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-87-90-fuzzy-expert-systems-by-j-f-derry-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-87-90-fuzzy-expert-systems-by-j-f-derry-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-87-90-fuzzy-expert-systems-by-j-f-derry-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-sidebm-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (87-90): SIDEBAR: MUGEN: COMPUTATION OF MEMBERSHIP FUNCTION"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MUGEN: COMPUTATION OF MEMBERSHIP\nFUNCTION
Membership functions can probably be computed with any plausible mathematical function suitable to\nthe occasion. In practice, however, many situations are well served by simple first- or second-order\nfunctions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-87-90-sidebar-mugen-computation-of-membership-function-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-87-90-sidebar-mugen-computation-of-membership-function-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-87-90-sidebar-mugen-computation-of-membership-function-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-shape-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (91-92): Predicting The Shape Of A Cycle Bottom by Michael R. Burk"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Predicting The Shape Of A Cycle Bottom\nby Michael R. Burk
I define a cycle as what happens between peaks in my New Low Indicator. Since the beginning of 1978\nthere have been 24 complete cycles averaging a little over 120 trading days, or 24 weeks.
Cycle bottoms play out in two distinctive patterns, which I call V and W. Each bottom traces out the\npattern of its letter description. A V bottom is one where the price index declines to a bottom and then\nheads up again (Figure 1). In the W bottom the price index reaches a low, retraces a portion of the decline\nand then falls back to retest the previous bottom; it can make several retests, at which point it creates a\nmultiple W pattern (Figure 2)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-91-92-predicting-the-shape-of-a-cycle-bottom-by-michael-r-burk-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-91-92-predicting-the-shape-of-a-cycle-bottom-by-michael-r-burk-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-91-92-predicting-the-shape-of-a-cycle-bottom-by-michael-r-burk-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c02-avgbeha-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:2 (93-93): Average Behavior by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Average Behavior\nby John Sweeney
Let me speculate a little here. I know from experience that the half-cycle moving average generally\nruns along the tops of declining trends and along the bottoms of rising trends Ñ at least in the financials I\nfollow. This behavior makes it possible to identify rich sells in declines and cheap buys in advances. But\nwhy does the average behave this way?
Well, a moving average Ñ as we usually plot these things Ñ is actually plotted ahead of its \""centered\""\nposition. Instead of plotting it in the center of the data periods that it averages, we plot it at the latest\nperiod. To illustrate, in the figure below, I've drawn a 90-day sine wave and penciled in 45-day averages,\none centered and one \""advanced.\"" If the lines aren't clear, the centered average matches the fluctuations\nof the sine wave exactly."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-93-93-average-behavior-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-93-93-average-behavior-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-2-93-93-average-behavior-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-adx-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (101-102): The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX)\nby Thom Hartle
Directional movement, according to technician J. Welles Wilder, is one of the most interesting aspects\nof market analysis. Markets clearly move from trending periods to trading ranges, but determining when\nthis change occurs presented a challenge. To meet this challenge Wilder developed the Average\nDirectional Movement Index (ADX).
The Average Directional Movement Index is an indicator that is designed to rate the directional\nmovement of stocks or commodities. The index uses a scale of zero to one hundred to rate the trend\nintensity of a tradable. Various markets can be followed and evaluated for trend intensity. After rating\neach market, you use trend-following systems on the tradeables with a high rating. The tradeables with a\nlow rating on the ADX scale should be followed using a trading range system.
Determining the ADX value is a five-step process and begins with an evaluation of the basic directional\nmovement of the market. There will be only one directional movement value for each day. First, today's\nhigh is compared with yesterday's high (Figure 1, points A and C). This difference is defined as the plus\ndirectional movement (+DM). Comparing today's low with yesterday's low (Figure 2, points B and D)\ndefines the minus directional movement (-DM). Minus DM is for the purpose of labeling the value only;\nthe value of the -DM is always a positive number. Whichever reading is larger, +DM or -DM, will be\nused for each day."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-101-102-the-average-directional-movement-index-adx-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-101-102-the-average-directional-movement-index-adx-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-101-102-the-average-directional-movement-index-adx-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-stochas-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (103-103): Stochastics by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stochastics\nby Thom Hartle
During the late 1950s, George C. Lane was actively involved with researching different types of\noscillators to use as trading indicators. The name of each indicator was simply a letter from the alphabet,\nsuch as %A. The research took him through the alphabet twice before he decided to use two in particular,\ncalled the %K and %D. The stochastics oscillator was the result of this research. The term \""stochastics\"" is\nactually a misnomer, as stochastics is a synonym for \""random.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-103-103-stochastics-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-103-103-stochastics-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-103-103-stochastics-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-macd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (104-104): Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moving Average Convergence/Divergence\n(MACD)\nby Thom Hartle
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) method was developed by Gerald Appel as a\ntechnique to signal trend changes and indicate trend direction. The procedure uses the difference between\ntwo exponentially smoothed price data, called the MACD line, and an exponentially smoothed series of\nthis difference, which is called the signal line.
An exponential smoothing of price data has the advantage of responding quickly to price changes while\nsmoothing data in a consistent manner. The calculation of a exponentially smoothed moving average\n(EMA) is simple. You start with the difference between today's closing price and yesterday's EMA.\nMultiply this difference by a constant, then add this value to yesterday's EMA. This is today's EMA value.
The constant is from the equation 2/(n+1) where n is selected to produce a constant that will approximate\nn days of a simple moving average. For example, if you want the EMA to simulate a nine-day moving\naverage you would use n = 9, 2/(9+1) = 0.20 as the constant."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-104-104-moving-average-convergence-divergence-macd-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-104-104-moving-average-convergence-divergence-macd-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-104-104-moving-average-convergence-divergence-macd-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-sidebc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (105-108): SIDEBAR: THE CANDLESTICK METHOD"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick descriptions and definitions of candlestick charting patterns and terms, page 108."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-105-108-sidebar-the-candlestick-method-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-105-108-sidebar-the-candlestick-method-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-105-108-sidebar-the-candlestick-method-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-steveni-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (105-108): Steve Nison On Candlestick Charting by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Steve Nison On Candlestick Charting\nby Thom Hartle
Thanks to Steve Nison of Merrill Lynch, the Japanese candlestick formation method has become\ninternational. Nison's first article on the candlestick formation in December 1989 triggered a flood of\ninterest about the ancient method. Since then, he has spoken on candlestick charting widely and has\nappeared on FNN and CNBC on the subject as well. Nison, a New Yorker and a Merrill Lynch vice\npresident specializing in futures technical analysis/options strategies, provides investment and timing\nstrategies and trade recommendations and market views to Merrill Lynch brokers around the world.\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Nison on December 20, 1990, via telephone to\nget his views on the candlestick method.
\""Within a few more years, more technicians will be using candlestick charts than bar charts\"". — Steve\nNison
So how are Japanese candlestick charting and the bar charting that we know best different in your\nview?
The main difference between the bar chart and the candlestick chart is how they're drawn. The \""real\nbody\"" in the candles is the relationship between the opening and closing. The Japanese place a lot of\nemphasis on the opening and the closing, whereas the traditional Western tools really don't. If you think\nabout it, though, the relationship between the opening and the closing are probably the two most\nimportant times of the period. For example, the opening includes all the rumors and news that are filtered\ninto one price, the opening price. The opening is also where you get the first view of the battle between\nthe bulls and the bears. The close, as we all know, is very important. Many moving averages are based on\ncloses, and a lot of technicians will wait till the market closes above or below a technically significant\narea to confirm, so the close becomes very important.
How do the Japanese describe the system? Can you give me any examples?
The Japanese use colorful and very descriptive expressions to describe the markets; a lot of their\ntechnicals are based on military analogies. For example, if there's a large order to move the price on the\nopening, the Japanese traders refer to it as a \""morning attack.\"" If a large influx of orders occurs, if someone tries to affect the closing price of a particular market, the Japanese traders call that market\nactivity a \""night attack.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-105-108-steve-nison-on-candlestick-charting-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-105-108-steve-nison-on-candlestick-charting-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-105-108-steve-nison-on-candlestick-charting-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-timeofd-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (109-109): Time Of Daily High And Low by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Time Of Daily High And Low\nby Arthur A. Merill, C.M.T.
Does the time of the high for the day and the time of the low give a clue to the performance of the\nmarket on the next day?
For example, suppose that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) high point was at the opening and\nthe low at noon, followed by a rally in the afternoon. What are the prospects for the next day?
The answer can be found by consulting the record of market highs and lows. For classification, the hours\nof the day could be represented by a digit. (See Figure 1.)
Using a two-digit classification, the first digit could locate the high for the day and the second digit the\nlow. For example, on a day with pattern type 26, the high was at 11 a.m. and the low was at 3 p.m.
The computer was asked to compare the record of high and low patterns to the daily DJIA. My hourly\ndata bank begins with 1971, so 19 years were reviewed. The results are in Figure 2."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-109-109-time-of-daily-high-and-low-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-109-109-time-of-daily-high-and-low-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-109-109-time-of-daily-high-and-low-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-dowtheo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (110-112): Dow Theory: Bullish Or Bearish? by Jack Rusin"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dow Theory: Bullish Or Bearish?\nby Jack Rusin
Most people are familiar with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), but relatively few are\nfamiliar with the Dow theory, Charles Dow's major contribution to the study of the stock market.\nUtilizing forerunners of today's DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), the\nnewspaperman worked out his system of analysis and published his original material in a series of\nintermittent editorials in The Wall Street Journal around the turn of the century.
The Dow theory pertains only to the movement of high-capitalization stocks and not to the more\nspeculative small-capitalization issues, although the theory's principle can be applied to that market\nsector as well.
AVERAGES IN RELATIVE TANDEM
The basic premise of Dow theory is that during major market moves, the DJIA and DJTA will move in\nrelative tandem, and it is only when both averages reverse direction that a valid buy or sell signal is\ngiven. This aspect of the theory recognizes that conditions unique to one sector of the market may not\nproperly be attributed to the market in general. Until a new, valid buy or sell signal is given, the old one\nis presumed to be in force, though each sector may move independently of the other over an intermediate\nterm."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-110-112-dow-theory-bullish-or-bearish-by-jack-rusin-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-110-112-dow-theory-bullish-or-bearish-by-jack-rusin-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-110-112-dow-theory-bullish-or-bearish-by-jack-rusin-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-timeasa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (113-115): Time As A Trading Tool by Robert Miner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Time As A Trading Tool\nby Robert Miner
As a rule, most trading methodologies, or \""systems,\"" simply approach market activity from a price\nperspective. But such an approach is incomplete; such an analysis of market activity is one-dimensional\nwithout the other two dimensions that make the study whole. For this reason, while price is a very\nimportant dimension of market activity, time and pattern can never be ignored. The key to this kind of\nanalysis and trading plan is to recognize the coincidence of time, price and pattern to indicate change\nwhen the market is in a period with a high probability of change, price is at or near a price objective at\nwhich there is a high probability of support or resistance and the pattern of the market activity indicates\nchange. Traders have the best opportunity to make a profitable trading decision when all the dimensions\nof market activity indicate that change is likely.
Most traders who are well versed in Elliott wave analysis are familiar with price ratio relationships\nbetween swings or waves. Projecting various price ratio relationships as a market unfolds will project\nprice objectives where a high probability of support or resistance exists; this type of projection also\napplies to time relationships.
The typical time analysis that traders and market analysts perform is related to the \""traditional\"" cycle\ntheory, which proposes that the market unfolds in specific fixed-length cycles. Because these cycles of\nfixed-length periodicity are simply averages of past cycles, they represent broad time periods when a high\nor low is likely and of limited use to the trader. Price activity can be considerable in a few weeks or\nmonths and especially in today's markets, where the volatility is increasing steadily. To enter and exit a\ntrade, therefore, a trader must be able to narrow the time period to just a few trading days when the\nchange of probability is high."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-113-115-time-as-a-trading-tool-by-robert-miner-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-113-115-time-as-a-trading-tool-by-robert-miner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-113-115-time-as-a-trading-tool-by-robert-miner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-sidebq-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (116-120): SIDEBAR: QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE SPECIALIST"",""caption-linebreaks"":""QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE\nSPECIALIST
Computer parameters of the pseudo stock specialist used in the main article, page 120."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-116-120-sidebar-questions-concerning-the-specialist-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-116-120-sidebar-questions-concerning-the-specialist-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-116-120-sidebar-questions-concerning-the-specialist-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-pseudo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (116-120): The Pseudo Trader by Mark Harris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Pseudo Trader\nby Mark Harris
How can you model stocks without stocks? By using random numbers to drive the simulation. In\nprevious articles (STOCKS & COMMODITIES, December 1990 and January 1991), first I demonstrated the\nmodeling of stock charts using this technique and then the modeling of a stock specialist. The problem I\nencountered was that the model lacked feedback — while volume influenced price (via the actions of the\npseudo specialist), the reverse did not hold.
What happens when the loop is closed by adding an object that responds to price? I call this new\nSmalltalk object a \""trader,\"" for reasons that are fairly obvious. Similar to a real-life technical trader, the\ngoal of this object is to profit by applying some system or formula to the reported price series.
Visualize this pseudo trader in two ways. First, the \""trader\"" might literally be an individual with very\ndeep pockets. Second, the view I prefer, we can think of the \""trader\"" as the concerted action of a number\nof individual traders who just happen to be following the same system. With this second interpretation\nwe can get a feeling for what happens when a particular system gains more adherents.
I have not created a day trader in this simulation; rather, I have created a trader with access to closing\ndata (high, low, close) for a given day and, on the basis of that data, the trader can act in time to catch\ntomorrow's opening.
What should be done when the order is larger than the specialist is willing to handle? The pseudo\nspecialist will not handle orders that place him over his capital limit. The mechanism in the model that\ndeals with this simply places over the limit orders on the book, where they are held until the random flow\nof orders allows them to be filled.
The pseudo trader, on the other hand, isn't willing to place his (large) order as a market order that may be\nexecuted in bits and pieces at successively higher (or lower, if selling) prices."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-116-120-the-pseudo-trader-by-mark-harris-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-116-120-the-pseudo-trader-by-mark-harris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-116-120-the-pseudo-trader-by-mark-harris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-onbalan-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (121-123): On-Balance Volume And The Dow Jones Utility Index by Daniel E. Downing"",""caption-linebreaks"":""On-Balance Volume And The Dow Jones Utility\nIndex\nby Daniel E. Downing
Between Thursday, October 19, 1990, and Monday, October 22, 1990, the Dow Jones Industrial\nAverage (DJIA) gained more than 127 points. More important than the points gained in the DJIA,\nhowever, is the volume on which the gain occurred, as well as the small point gain (3.4 points) that\noccurred in the Dow Jones Utility Index. The on-balance volume (OBV) line for the New York\nComposite Index (an index of every stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange) and the price chart\nfor Dow Jones Utility Index both broke out above long-term downtrend lines. When breakouts such as\nthese have occurred in the past, it has led to higher stock prices, generally over a six-month period.
ON-BALANCE VOLUME
An OBV line is an internal — that is, not based on price — technical indicator for the stock market. The\nOBV line is a running sum of each day's volume. If the market closes up for the day, then today's volume\nis added. If the market closes down for the day, then today's volume is subtracted.
Generally, technicians look for the OBV line to show positive or negative divergence from the price line\nof a particular market — that is, we look for a change in direction or a breakout in the line before a\nchange in direction or breakout occurs in the index. We base our OBV line on the action of the New York\nComposite Index. The composite index rose between October 19 and October 22, 1990, so the OBV line\nbroke out to the upside. You can see this in the last column of Xs on the far right side of the point and\nfigure chart in Figure 1."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-121-123-on-balance-volume-and-the-dow-jones-utility-index-by-daniel-e-downing-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-121-123-on-balance-volume-and-the-dow-jones-utility-index-by-daniel-e-downing-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-121-123-on-balance-volume-and-the-dow-jones-utility-index-by-daniel-e-downing-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-sidebp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (121-123): SIDEBAR: POINT & FIGURE TECHNIQUE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""POINT & FIGURE TECHNIQUE
Point and figure charting is a technical trading approach that has been credited to Charles Dow, originator\nof the Dow theory. This technique differs from bar charting in that price reversals below a minimum size\nare eliminated and time is not a factor (it may be listed as only a frame of reference). Any market or\nindicator can be plotted using this technique; we use a stock for our example."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-121-123-sidebar-point-figure-technique-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-121-123-sidebar-point-figure-technique-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-121-123-sidebar-point-figure-technique-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-wyckoff-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (124-126): Wyckoff: Identifying Opportunities by Craig F. Schroeder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff: Identifying Opportunities\nby Craig F. Schroeder
Completing the first two steps of the Wyckoff method provides the investor or speculator with\ninformation that is essential for success. At this point, he or she knows whether to consider establishing\nlong positions for an anticipated advance or short positions for a projected decline. In addition, he has a\ngroup of candidates from which to select the issues in which positions will be established. The next two\nsteps of the Wyckoff method provide the basis for identifying the best opportunities from among the\ngroup of potential candidates.
CAUSE AND SELECT
Step 3 of the Wyckoff method involves selecting those stocks that have built up a cause in keeping with\nyour goals. Many aspects of the Wyckoff approach employ the concept of cause and effect. In this step,\nthe concept is applied using a point & figure chart. A cause on a point & figure chart is identified as a\nhorizontal buildup of postings that develops at one particular level or over a relatively narrow range while\nthe stock or the market as a whole is in a trading range. The cause is measured by the number of divisions\nthat it covers on the point & figure chart. Figure 1, which is a point & figure chart of Bristol-Myers,\nshows a cause at the 52 level.
The chart of Bristol-Myers begins on January 1, 1990. It shows that a trading range developed in January\nand lasted until April. During this period, the stock traded in a range from a low of approximately 51 to a\nhigh of approximately 55. The 52 level is selected as the level at which to measure the potential because\nit represents the bottom of the last reaction before the stock broke out of the trading range to the upside. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-124-126-wyckoff-identifying-opportunities-by-craig-f-schroeder-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-124-126-wyckoff-identifying-opportunities-by-craig-f-schroeder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-124-126-wyckoff-identifying-opportunities-by-craig-f-schroeder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-spread-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (127-128): Spread Prices As A Leading Indicator by Curtis McKallip Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Spread Prices As A Leading Indicator\nby Curtis McKallip Jr.
Commodities that are deliverable today trade at a different price than the very same commodity to be\ndelivered in the future. This price differential is called a spread.
Spreads exist because of two factors: charges (usually interest and storage charges) and relative demand\nfor a product. Assuming these two factors stay relatively constant, the spread is controlled by the demand\nanticipated in the short run versus that for longer periods. A recent extreme example of a commodity\nspread is crude oil during the 1990 Iraqi/Kuwait crisis, when near-month contracts were bid up higher\nthan far-month contracts because of the threat of a short-term supply disruption.
Financial and gold contracts trade mostly on real and anticipated interest rate differentials. For this\nreason, their spreads are much more complex to analyze.
Month-to-month spreads often can be used to pick tops and bottoms in agricultural commodities. The\nfollowing examples show how spreads often diverge from price action at critical points. While the\nmethod doesn't always work, it can be a very helpful tool."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-127-128-spread-prices-as-a-leading-indicator-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-127-128-spread-prices-as-a-leading-indicator-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-127-128-spread-prices-as-a-leading-indicator-by-curtis-mckallip-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-another-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (129-130): Another Chance With Breakaway Gaps by John Crane"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Another Chance With Breakaway Gaps\nby John Crane
Suppose you've been monitoring the market for weeks, faithfully updating your daily charts and\nstudying your favorite indicators. The criteria for your trade are met and, at long last, a buy signal is\ngenerated. You know that once resistance is broken, the ensuing move will be substantial.
The next morning you place a call to your broker, only to hear that the market gapped higher on the open,\nsoaring to levels somewhere in a neighboring galaxy. This was definitely not a part of your\nwell-developed trading plan. You then decide to wait for the market to pull back during the day to enter\nat a more attractive price. But the market doesn't pull back. Disheartened, you cancel your order and\nbegin to search for another market with similar profit potential.
Does this scenario sound familiar? It happens to even the best and most experienced futures traders.\nWhen a market gaps to higher (or lower) levels, many traders will hesitate to enter at even higher (or\nlower) levels than originally planned and often miss an explosive move in the market. But occasionally,\nyou do get a second chance to enter the trade before the explosive move by the judicious use of\nbreakaway gaps."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-129-130-another-chance-with-breakaway-gaps-by-john-crane-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-129-130-another-chance-with-breakaway-gaps-by-john-crane-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-129-130-another-chance-with-breakaway-gaps-by-john-crane-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-fourier-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (131-132): Fourier Analyses by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fourier Analyses\nby John Sweeney
One of the fascinating ideas that came up early in STOCKS & COMMODITIES' days was the Fourier\nanalyses applied to stock and commodity data by Anthony Warren and Jack Hutson (see Technical\nAnalysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Volume 1). While this technique has its limitations for forecasting,\nit's great for seeing what cyclical content there is in your price data. Given this, you can detrend the data\nand select the \""correct\"" length of trend-following indicators, whether they are averages, cycles or\nwhatever (''filters'' to you engineers). Practically speaking, it helps you find a line that will cut the price\ncharts' curves as the right point in a turnaround. For example, in Figure 1, you don't want line A's\nbehavior or necessarily line C's. You'd like line B's. This analysis helps find the appropriate curve, plus\nthese graphs also give you an idea of the relative importance of the many cycles inherent in your data.
Take Figure 2, for example. This is an amplitude (vertically) vs. frequency (horizontally) chart of the\ncyclical content for December Euros, October 1989 to December 1990. The first point to notice is the\n\""regularity\"" of the peak and cycle information. The data aren't \""smeared\"" across the chart, either\nhorizontally or vertically, and the amount of space between peaks and valley is fairly regular, which I\nwant because I'd like to find some relationships between each cycle length and its harmonics at half,\nquarter and eighth lengths. The data aren't perfectly clean — this is the real world — so, for example,\neight days is not half of 14 days, which is not half of 22 days, and so on. In this case, the sharpness of the\npeaks and the regularity of the lengths is reassuring."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-131-132-fourier-analyses-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-131-132-fourier-analyses-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-131-132-fourier-analyses-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c03-artific-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:3 (95-100): Artificial Intelligence And Market Analysis by Mark B. Fishman, Dean S. Barr and Walter J. Loick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Artificial Intelligence And Market Analysis\nby Mark B. Fishman, Dean S. Barr and Walter J. Loick
Markets are chaotic and their randomness is real but intermittent; we can approach the development of\ntrading systems with that assumption. We can also assume that predictable intervals of non-randomness\noccur between periods of chaos, making market behavior recognizable enough to be exploited. Two\nforms of technology have been notably successful in the development of dynamic trading systems: expert\nsystems and, more recently, neural networks.
EXPERT SYSTEMS
An expert system is simply a set of rules that express some things we can reliably believe about the world:
EXPERT SYSTEM 1\nRule 1: IF the window is wet
THEN it is (probably) raining (90%)
Rule 2: IF it is raining AND I left my oar windows open
THEN I should run outside and close them (99%)
Rule 3: IF it was sunny this morning
THEN I (probably) left my car windows open (95%)
These are noncontroversial rules about which most of us are fairly \""expert.\"" Note that these are all, in\nsome sense, rules of thumb, or what artificial intelligence (AI) people call \""heuristics\"": none of them\nrepresents an absolute certainty. If the window is wet, my sprinkler may be on, or perhaps a firetruck has just arrived to put out the flames in my house. If I left my car parked in any major city, then rule 3 is\nprobably crazy. Finally, even rule 2 is open to debate. If I am currently in bed with pneumonia or a\nbroken leg, perhaps I should consider some other way of dealing with my car's open windows. Still, these\nrules have a certain reliability, and they correspond to the rules in our own lives."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-95-100-artificial-intelligence-and-market-analysis-by-mark-b-fishman-dean-s-barr-and-walter-j-loick-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-95-100-artificial-intelligence-and-market-analysis-by-mark-b-fishman-dean-s-barr-and-walter-j-loick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-3-95-100-artificial-intelligence-and-market-analysis-by-mark-b-fishman-dean-s-barr-and-walter-j-loick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-sidebi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (135-138): SIDEBAR: INDICATORS GALORE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""INDICATORS GALORE\n—Thom Hartle, Editor
Listing of indicators used in a neural network, page 138."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-135-138-sidebar-indicators-galore-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-135-138-sidebar-indicators-galore-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-135-138-sidebar-indicators-galore-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-usingne-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (135-138): Using Neural Nets In Market Analysis by Mark B. Fishman, Dean S. Barr and Walter J. Loick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Can neural networks aid traders? By Mark B. Fishman, Dean S. Barr and Walter J. Loick
Neural networks are the newest form of artificial intelligence technology to make its way into market\nanalysis. Neural networks, also referred to as neural nets, mimic the human brain's most powerful ability,\nthat of pattern recognition. The neural net can make a decision or a prediction by drawing on an inventory\nof patterns previously learned, seeking the one most relevant to the current situation. What distinguishes\nneural nets, moreover, from \""classical\"" AI paradigms such as that of rule-based systems is that, in a real\nsense, t they \""learn\"" by example and modify themselves, rather than having to be programmed with\nspecific preconceived rules.
Neural nets use layers of real or \""simulated\"" electronic neurons with various numeric weights\n(dynamically modifiable in the \""training\"" phase) representing the connection strengths between them to\n\""learn\"" a predictive ability. A neural net, once trained, can be described as a matrix of neurons and\nconnection strengths that represent the \""solution\"" to a problem. Commercially available neural net shells,\nas well as those still being researched, use a variety of algorithms to adjust the connection strengths\nbetween the neurons until convergence is achieved and the system is able to make correct predictions\nwith some, usually high, percentage of accuracy. Once the network successfully sets the weights of the\nconnections to produce the correct output, then the trained net is ready to use as a predictive or diagnostic\ntool.
THE FUTURE IS FANCIFUL
While this technology may seem fancifully futuristic, some very good and effective neural network\nsoftware programs are in fact already available to the public at a reasonable cost. We use Brainmaker,\ncreated by California Scientific Software. A neural net software package such as Brainmaker should be\nthought of as a \""shell\"" program, similar to an expert system shell, the effectiveness of which is largely\ndependent on the choice of algorithms by which it \""learns.\"" What makes this software package a\npowerful tool for learning relationships is the proprietary back-propagation algorithm used by its\ndesigners."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-135-138-using-neural-nets-in-market-analysis-by-mark-b-fishman-dean-s-barr-and-walter-j-loick-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-135-138-using-neural-nets-in-market-analysis-by-mark-b-fishman-dean-s-barr-and-walter-j-loick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-135-138-using-neural-nets-in-market-analysis-by-mark-b-fishman-dean-s-barr-and-walter-j-loick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-merrill-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (139-139): Merrill Directional Patterns by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Merrill Directional Patterns\nby Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Can we get clues to price performance from the swings of prices in the last hours of the preceding day?\nIf we ignore volume and the amount of change, the direction of the swings of prices can be summarized\nby a simple plus or minus and analysis is simplified. I've modestly (!) labeled the classification \""Merrill\ndirectional patterns,\"" in hopes of some immortality.
If we consider the direction of the swings in the last four hours, there are 16 possible patterns (Figure 1).\nIf we consider only the last three hours, there are eight possibilities (Figure 2)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-139-139-merrill-directional-patterns-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-139-139-merrill-directional-patterns-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-139-139-merrill-directional-patterns-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-looking-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (140-141): Looking At 10-Year Stock Price Patterns by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Looking At 10-Year Stock Price Patterns\nby Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D.
Many temporal cycles have some influence on the stock and commodity markets. One, the decennial\npattern, receives more attention near the beginning and end of decades. Studying stock market price\npatterns anew presents some new conclusions.
From a report written by actuary W.S. Jevons in 1884, economist E.L. Smith obtained the critical clue he\nhad sought concerning the cyclical behavior of investment instruments. In the early 1930s, cycles of nine\nand 11 years dominated the thinking of naturalists, because of such natural phenomena as solar radiation\ncycles (which were shown to have 11-year cycles) and tree-ring cycles (which were shown to have nine\nyear cycles), among others. Even after much effort Smith was unsuccessful in finding any such nine- or\n11 year patterns in stock market indices. But when he tested 10-year groupings, a strong pattern seemed\nto stand out. He published the results of his work in 1939.
In 1954, stock technician Edson Gould updated and presented Smith's data in tabular form, making some\ncanny positive predictions about how the stock market would behave in 1955 (it had an excellent gain).\nSmith next revised and republished his work in 1959. There have been at least four more editions of this\nwork since then."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-140-141-looking-at-10-year-stock-price-patterns-by-lewis-carl-mokrasch-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-140-141-looking-at-10-year-stock-price-patterns-by-lewis-carl-mokrasch-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-140-141-looking-at-10-year-stock-price-patterns-by-lewis-carl-mokrasch-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-nurock-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (142-144): All By His Elf: Robert Nurock by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""All By His Elf: Robert Nurock by Thom Hartle
The most money is made in the market by those who are able to identify trends early and stick with them\n— not trade out of issues just because they've gone theoretically too far, too fast.\"" — Robert Nurock
Robert Nurock is perhaps best known for his 19-year sojourn on the Wall Street Week TV program. He\ndecided, in October last year, to resign as panelist and \""Chief Elf \"" on the respected financial show to\nconcentrate on his own research. Nurock spoke with STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle via\ntelephone on Tuesday, February 5, 1991.
To start off with the basics for our readers, let's talk about technical indicators, because that's\nprobably what you're best known for. What would you say are some of the things that indicators can\ndo for you in terms of your investment analysis?
I think the most important thing that an investor or an analyst should look at when he or she analyzes\ntechnical indicators would be to try to find some sort of objective measurement of the factors that\ninfluence or measure supply and demand for the stock market. The indicators that are traditionally\nadopted by a market analyst look at investor sentiment or psychology in an effort to determine whether\ninvestors are overly bullish or overly bearish. Market analysts look at the market's momentum or rate of\nchange to see if the market has moved too far in one direction, not unlike a pendulum that would then\nswing back in the opposite direction.
What about speculative confidence?
We would also look at indicators that reflect speculative confidence, or the willingness of investors to\ntake on risk. Essentially, when you're at the top of a market cycle, investors are no longer concerned with\nrisk; they're willing to take any bet whatsoever. On the other hand, when you're at the bottom of a market\ncycle, investors are only concerned with risk, they're not concerned with reward, they just want out of the\nmarket. So we look at measures that would signal the willingness of investors to take risk."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-142-144-all-by-his-elf-robert-nurock-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-142-144-all-by-his-elf-robert-nurock-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-142-144-all-by-his-elf-robert-nurock-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-armsind-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (145-147): Using The Arms Index In Intraday Applications by Richard W. Arms Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using The Arms Index In Intraday Applications\nby Richard W. Arms Jr.
A few weeks ago, I received a call from an analyst who had read a number of my recent articles in\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES and had an interesting question. \""I've developed a new index to measure the\nmarket and want to know how I can have it named after me,\"" he said. My somewhat facetious advice\nwas, \""All you need to do is wait about a quarter century, have a lot of luck and have some very good\nfriends!\""
I wish I could have been more helpful to the gentleman, but there really was no better answer. He was\nreferring, of course, to the fact that the index that I invented in 1967 is now known as the Arms Index.\nBut it wasn't always that way. It was first called TRIN, short for Trader's Index, because that was the\nsymbol for it on one of the quotation services. Only after many years and a good deal of effort has the\nindex's name changed. This was done primarily through the efforts of a great number of highly respected\ntechnicians who thought that credit should be given to the developer of a technique. The change was\ngradual, until it is now carried on most electronic systems, both national TV news networks, most\nadvisory letters and many business publications as \""ARMS\""
DEFINING AN INDEX\nWhat is this index, and why hasn't it fallen by the wayside as another indicator that became too popular\nand thereby destroyed itself? It is just a very simple calculation that tells us whether the up stocks or the\ndown stocks are getting more than their share of the volume. The index is based on the assumption that\nvolume tends to swing in the direction of market sentiment. If we are in a bullish atmosphere, volume\nwill tend to be proportionately higher in the stocks that are going up. If the bears are in control, the\nvolume will tend to be proportionately heavier in those stocks that are declining. ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-145-147-using-the-arms-index-in-intraday-applications-by-richard-w-arms-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-145-147-using-the-arms-index-in-intraday-applications-by-richard-w-arms-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-145-147-using-the-arms-index-in-intraday-applications-by-richard-w-arms-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-wyckoff-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (148-151): Wyckoff: Buying And Selling Tests by Craig F. Schroeder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff: Buying And Selling Tests\nby Craig F. Schroeder
In the Richard D. Wyckoff method on stock market science and techniques, the fourth step of his\napproach is explained thus: Determine each stock's readiness to move, then analyze the vertical line chart\nand figure chart of the candidates previously selected by the use of buying and selling tests.
The first three steps of the Wyckoff method are simple and easy to apply. Step four can also be simply\nstated. Hidden behind the simplicity in this case, however, is a wide range of considerations to be\naddressed, most of which require the use of an element that is much less of a factor when applying any of\nthe first three steps: good judgment, which must be developed through practice and cannot be learned\nfrom a book. What can be learned are tools that can aid in the development of good judgment. These are\nthe focus of step four of the Wyckoff method.
READY OR NOT
Whether a stock is ready to move is determined by its current position compared with the previous action\nand the kind of action that has brought it there. With few exceptions, positions that appear ready to move\noccur at or near the completion of reactions or rallies. A stock will indicate a readiness to rise as it\ncompletes a reaction and it will indicate a readiness to drop as it completes a rally.
The necessarily brief nature of this article does not allow an explanation of all the finer points that must\nbe considered in the fourth step of the Wyckoff method. But several points can be presented and put to\nwork immediately with steps one through three: position and nature of action."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-148-151-wyckoff-buying-and-selling-tests-by-craig-f-schroeder-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-148-151-wyckoff-buying-and-selling-tests-by-craig-f-schroeder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-148-151-wyckoff-buying-and-selling-tests-by-craig-f-schroeder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-constan-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (152-155): Using A Constant False Alarm Rate In Trading by John Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using A Constant False Alarm Rate In Trading\nby John Ehlers
Modern information theory has existed for the last half century or so. This theory has been responsible\nfor man significant scientific advances, including recovery of photograph taken in deep space, pinpoint\naccuracy of missile guidance and speech synthesis. With such a track record, why couldn't technical\ntraders apply some principles of information theory to trading methodology? Let's examine a trading\ndecision method using some of information theory's fundamental concepts.
First of all, trading involves value judgments. One example of value judgment involves a quarter lying in\nthe street. If you were penniless, you would promptly scoop up that quarter. On the other hand, if you had\njust made a killing on 25 contracts of the Standard & Poor's, you would probably just step over the\nquarter and go on your way. That quarter would have little value to you. To describe the value function in\na more continuous form, imagine the value of William Tell's arrow as a function of elevation in the\nmythical incident in which he had to shoot an arrow through an apple on his son's head. There is a\nnegative value if the arrow flies too high; there is a large positive value if it flies a few inches above his\nson ' s head into the apple; and there is a large negative value if the arrow flies too low. There is no doubt\nthe value function will influence decisions. You can bet Tell's aim was biased upward. It is difficult to\nseparate the value function and pure information theory, but let's try.
DECISION PROBABILITIES
Assume there is a signal containing information, say a radar echo pulse, that is present some of the time.\nThe radar also receives noise that contains no information. The problem is to make a decision at each\nincrement of range whether or not the echo pulse is present, and we can vote yes or no at each increment.\nFour outcomes are possible:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-152-155-using-a-constant-false-alarm-rate-in-trading-by-john-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-152-155-using-a-constant-false-alarm-rate-in-trading-by-john-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-152-155-using-a-constant-false-alarm-rate-in-trading-by-john-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-priceas-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (156-157): Price As A Trading Tool by Robert Miner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price As A Trading Tool\nby Robert Miner
A complete approach to trading requires the trader to analyze the market from all perspectives. The\nthree important dimensions of market activity are time, price and pattern. If a trader does not include all\nthree perspectives of market activity as part of his analysis, trading is likely to suffer. Price relationships\nindicate in advance narrow price zones that are particularly important to any individual market. Every\ntrader should be aware of three important price relationships relative to market activity: Price Cycle\nRatios, swing price relationships and price percentage change relationships. Any of these price\nrelationships may result in at least temporary support or resistance. More important price objectives will\nresult when a coincidence of price relationships will occur from one or more of the three methods. Please\ntake note that these price relationships are all determined in advance, so that the trader will be prepared in\nadvance for price zones where support and resistance may unfold.
PRICE CYCLE RATIOS
Price Cycle Ratios (PCR) are divisions of a price cycle by important ratios. One aspect of Price Cycle\nRatios traders should be familiar with are ratio retracements, which is the percentage relationship of a\ncountertrend move or correction relative to the preceding trend swing."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-156-157-price-as-a-trading-tool-by-robert-miner-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-156-157-price-as-a-trading-tool-by-robert-miner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-156-157-price-as-a-trading-tool-by-robert-miner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-calcula-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (158-159): Calculating Momentum A New Way by Darryl W. Maddox"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Calculating Momentum A New Way\nby Darryl W. Maddox
Traditionally, the calculation of market momentum has been a difference calculation. Thus, a\nmomentum indicator for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is calculated by subtracting the closing value\non one date from the closing value on some later date and by doing so, momentum curves are constructed\nfor various time frames ranging from a few days to a few months.
Calling the result of a difference calculation \""momentum\"" has bothered me since I started to learn about\nthe market. Having been trained in physics, I thought a momentum indicator should have two properties:\nFirst, it should be the result of a multiplication, and second, it should give some indication of the\ntendency that the market has to continue its current direction.
I calculate an indicator, which I called momentum, by keeping a 10-day moving average of the product of\nthe daily change in the DJIA and daily volume. The calculation is easy and it fits my notion of what a\nmomentum indicator should be."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-158-159-calculating-momentum-a-new-way-by-darryl-w-maddox-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-158-159-calculating-momentum-a-new-way-by-darryl-w-maddox-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-158-159-calculating-momentum-a-new-way-by-darryl-w-maddox-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-sidebr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (160-162) SIDEBAR: RSI"",""caption-linebreaks"":""RSI\n—Thom Hartle, Editor
Formula and explanation of the RSI, relative strength index, page 160."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-160-162-sidebar-rsi-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-160-162-sidebar-rsi-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-160-162-sidebar-rsi-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-rsiexit-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (160-162): RSI As An Exit Tool by David Cartwright"",""caption-linebreaks"":""RSI As An Exit Tool\nby David Cartwright
Over the past 12 years of futures trading, I have taken a singular approach to the use of the relative\nstrength index (see sidebar, \""RSI\""). I have discovered that RSI is unreliable for market entry. For exiting\nthe market, however, the index can be very impressive. For traders who take multiple contracts in a\nfutures market, using RSI can be even more dynamic.
It is a common practice for traders to use a trailing stop order to protect profits on positions that are\nworking in their favor. Many traders will use a simple moving average to locate the area in which to\nplace a stop-loss order, then place their order under the average and move the stop as the moving average\nincreases or decreases. That's the technique I use along with RSI to exit positions.
Figure 1 is a chart of the Treasury bond market in a sideways pattern. I only use multiple contracts in the\nfutures market, which allows me to be flexible enough to reduce my potential loss while still being able\nto participate in the potential profit of the transaction.
Whenever the nine-day RSI rises into the 75 area, I liquidate 10% of my position, or at least one contract.\nIf the RSI rises into the 80 area I will liquidate 50% of my remaining position, and if the RSI rises into\nthe 90 area, I will liquidate 90% of my remaining position. These RSI levels have a history of indicating\nexhaustion of the buying for the price run. Obviously, the stronger the underlying fundamentals are, the\nhigher the RSI could get, but even in strong bull markets, runs will tend to play out in regions above the\n75 level."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-160-162-rsi-as-an-exit-tool-by-david-cartwright-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-160-162-rsi-as-an-exit-tool-by-david-cartwright-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-160-162-rsi-as-an-exit-tool-by-david-cartwright-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-sidebex-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (163-167): SIDEBAR: EXPERT SYSTEMS, FUZZY OR CRISP"",""caption-linebreaks"":""EXPERT SYSTEMS, FUZZY OR CRISP
Expert systems in the form of if…then rules, page 165."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-163-167-sidebar-expert-systems-fuzzy-or-crisp-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-163-167-sidebar-expert-systems-fuzzy-or-crisp-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-163-167-sidebar-expert-systems-fuzzy-or-crisp-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-sidebf-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (163-167): SIDEBAR: FLDJ: ANALYSIS OF DAILY WSJ STATISTICS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""FLDJ: ANALYSIS OF DAILY WSJ\nSTATISTICS
Data available from the Wall St. Journal that can be used in a fuzzy logic system, page 164."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-163-167-sidebar-fldj-analysis-of-daily-wsj-statistics-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-163-167-sidebar-fldj-analysis-of-daily-wsj-statistics-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-163-167-sidebar-fldj-analysis-of-daily-wsj-statistics-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-fuzzy-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (163-167): Using Fuzzy Logic in Expert Systems by James F. Derry"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Fuzzy Logic in Expert Systems\nby James F. Derry
Stock market followers assess the market environment with numerous technical indicators. For the\nmost part, these indicators are rarely definitively bullish or bearish. It is rare that an indicator can be\nconsidered to have \""crisp\"" values, such as true or false. More accurately, a technical indicator is\nconsidered —as the term might imply—to be an indication of a situation, not a black-or-white statement\nof some fact. Artificial intelligence researchers deal with this lack of a clear-cut conclusion with the\nconcept of fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic, according to L.A. Zadeh, is using propositional logic that is modified\nto allow the use of any value in the range of 0 to 1, rather than only the \""crisp\"" binary values of 0 and 1.\nThe result is fuzzy logic, with a value falling within the range of 0 to 1 considered partly true to the\ndegree of that particular value. For example, a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 may be considered high. A\nP/E of 25 is even higher. Can P/Es of 20 and 25 both be considered high, but 19 not? A decision based on\na crisp rule is difficult to develop, but by using fuzzy logic a rating or an indexed value from 0 to 1 can be\napplied. The determination of this value is called the membership function, or a \""Mu\"" value.
FUZZY RULES WITH FUZZY MANNERS
Thus, the use of fuzzy logic in an expert system requires values that are traditionally crisp, such as price\nand price/earnings ratio data, to be used in a fuzzy manner with accordant fuzzy rules. In general, expert\nsystems have many rules in a knowledge base, and more than one rule may be applied when the\nknowledge base is processed. The question arises as to which conclusions will be used. Consider the\narbitrary rule base:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-163-167-using-fuzzy-logic-in-expert-systems-by-james-f-derry-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-163-167-using-fuzzy-logic-in-expert-systems-by-james-f-derry-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-163-167-using-fuzzy-logic-in-expert-systems-by-james-f-derry-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-financi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (168-171): Financial Volume Index And Volume Analysis by Patrick Cifaldi, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Financial Volume Index And Volume Analysis\nby Patrick Cifaldi, C.M.T.
In technical analysis, the study of volume is one of the most overlooked and underrated disciplines. In\nthe general study of the supply and demand of markets, only two pieces of data are recordable: One is\nprice data, while the other is volume data. Open interest is regarded by some as a third, but in many ways\nit is really a record of the outstanding potential volume. But most articles and research written and\nperformed relates only to price analysis. Such an oversight is not unlike designing a great\nautomobile—without engineering the engine.
THE LONELY DISCIPLINE
Some disciplines disregard volume analysis altogether. Theoretically, Gann analysis, the Elliott wave\nprinciple and Fibonacci ratios are three such disciplines. Such studies do produce positive results and add\na structure to the very unstructured world of market analysis. In no way am I implying that these studies\nare unimportant; the true masters of such studies incorporate many tools in their work, including volume.
Volume studies do have their heroes: Analysts such as L.M. Lowry, whose analysis of volume data in the\n1930s has been used as a foundation tool by many current analysts; Jim Sibbet, who developed the\nDemand Index; Marc Chaikin, who developed a method that breaks a period's trading volume down into\nhow much was up volume and how much was down volume; and Joseph Granville, perhaps the most\nfamous proponent of volume analysis. His volume analysis methods are so varied that I could not attempt\nto summarize his work in this limited space.
These analysts have something in common with other analysts who use volume as an analytical tool; all\nattempt to measure the flow of funds in a marketplace. Volume could be compared with the amount of\nfuel in an engine. Without volume, or fuel, the market does not move, and if the fuel is plentiful, the\nmarket has the potential to move sharply. The measure of this fuel is the key to analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-168-171-financial-volume-index-and-volume-analysis-by-patrick-cifaldi-c-m-t-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-168-171-financial-volume-index-and-volume-analysis-by-patrick-cifaldi-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-168-171-financial-volume-index-and-volume-analysis-by-patrick-cifaldi-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-sidebv-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (168-171): SIDEBAR: THE VOLUME INDEX AND ON-BALANCE VOLUME"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE VOLUME INDEX AND ON-BALANCE\nVOLUME\n—Thom Hartle
A leading and confirming indicator, page 170."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-168-171-sidebar-the-volume-index-and-on-balance-volume-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-168-171-sidebar-the-volume-index-and-on-balance-volume-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-168-171-sidebar-the-volume-index-and-on-balance-volume-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-elliott-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (172-173): Elliott Wave And Gold by Horatio Miller"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Elliott Wave And Gold\nby Horatio Miller
Ask any Elliott Wave analyst about the outlook for gold, and he will without doubt say that the\nprecious metal is on its way down to the $100-200 range. A divergent-Elliott Wave interpretation,\nhowever, suggests that over the near term, gold will rally to the area between $633.78 and $662.29.
This hypothesis is supported by a wave count that classifies the 1980-90 drop in the price of gold as an\nunfinished zigzag correction. Within this interpretation, cycle wave A of the zigzag ended when London\ngold fell to $284 on February 25, 1985. Cycle wave B of the zigzag is still in progress. It is this wave that\nshould carry gold over the $600 threshold.
A detailed look at London gold from 1980 to 1990 will confirm this forecast. Supercycle wave (II), the\ndecline in the price of gold from the 1980 top, began in the typical manner of a zigzag, with five\ndescending waves that formed cycle wave A (Figure 1). This wave finished on February 25,1985, the day\nthat London gold dropped to $284. Cycle wave A is followed by cycle wave B, three ascending waves\nthat are still in the process of unfolding. Cycle wave B started with primary wave a, five rising waves that\nended at $479.95 on May 20, 1987 (Figure 2). Primary wave b, a correction, took the form of what R.N.\nElliott called a double-three, and it terminated at $345.25 on June 14, 1990 (Figure 3). (Editor's note:\nSince we cannot reproduce the circled letters necessary to Elliott theory, we are instead using boldface\nletters.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-172-173-elliott-wave-and-gold-by-horatio-miller-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-172-173-elliott-wave-and-gold-by-horatio-miller-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-172-173-elliott-wave-and-gold-by-horatio-miller-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-sidebe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (172-173): SIDEBAR: THE ELLIOTT WAVE ZIGZAG FORMATION"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE ELLIOTT WAVE ZIGZAG FORMATION\n—Thom Hartle, Editor
An explanation of subdivisions of the Elliott Wave pattern, page 173."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-172-173-sidebar-the-elliott-wave-zigzag-formation-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-172-173-sidebar-the-elliott-wave-zigzag-formation-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-172-173-sidebar-the-elliott-wave-zigzag-formation-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c04-backtoa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:4 (174-175): Back To Averages by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Back To Averages\nby John Sweeney
Getting back to the subject of averages skimming tops and bottoms of price curves (Settlement,\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES, February 1991), two readers, C. Skelley of Tucson, AZ, and John Ehlers of\nGoleta, CA, wrote to explain things to me. In that column, I tried to estimate roughly the effects on an\naverage of lag and attenuation 2 —two factors that positioned the averages along the tops and bottoms of\nprice curves.
Skelley pointed out J.M. Hurst's Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, appendix 4, wherein Hurst\nestimated the effects for a centered moving average. However, I'm curious about our more usual practice\nof plotting the average coincidentally with the current price—really, an \""advanced\"" moving average.
Ehlers took on the job straightforwardly, and I am reprinting his note with my own emendations (in\nitalics), because I think John tends to write in the condensed, efficient style of a mathematician that may\nbe tough to understand without pictures and elaboration. If I've confused things, mea culpa! Ehlers writes:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-174-175-back-to-averages-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-174-175-back-to-averages-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-4-174-175-back-to-averages-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-cross-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (177-179): Cross Your Arms by Richard W. Arms Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Cross Your Arms\nby Richard W. Arms Jr.
The dinner had been marvelous, the wine had been perfect, and now my wife and I were arriving at the\ntheater. I knew we were right on time, and I had the tickets in my inside coat pocket. As we walked up to\nthe entrance we realized that the theater was dark, and when we tried the door it was locked. I looked at\nthe tickets, of course — and found that we were a night too early. The show would not open until the next\nevening. We had done everything right except the timing. It was the right show at the right theater, but\nwe had wasted our energy because of poor timing.
I try not to do this in the stock market! (The market is far less forgiving than my wife.) It is not enough to\nhave the right stock, it also must be the right time. Nothing is more frustrating than to recognize a great\nbasing formation, spot a wonderful breakout on increasing volume, wait patiently for the light volume\npullback, aggressively buy the stock, and then see it do nothing, or even decline farther because the\nmarket is coming apart. Some stocks can be strong enough to buck the trend, of course, but it makes little\nsense to fight a market if it is not necessary.
Each weekday morning, about two hours before the market opens, I can be found in my office, pondering\nmy charts, writing my opinions and faxing my ideas to a group of money managers. Before I allow\nmyself to look at individual stocks I require myself to formulate a market opinion, not just for that day,\nbut for the next few weeks and the next few months. Then I decide whether that opinion allows me to be\na buyer or a seller. I have to be sure that I am not arriving at the stock market \""theater\"" on the \""wrong\nevening.\"" Let me show you a tool that is for me one of the mainstays of that decision-making process. It\nallows me to get a quite reliable picture of the market and to predict how the market will perform over\nthe next few weeks. It is the Arms Index 21/55 crossover."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-177-179-cross-your-arms-by-richard-w-arms-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-177-179-cross-your-arms-by-richard-w-arms-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-177-179-cross-your-arms-by-richard-w-arms-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-mcginle-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (180-186): John McGinley of Technical Trends by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""John McGinley of Technical Trends by Thom Hartle
The Technical Trends newsletter, originally published by technician Arthur Merrill, presents statistical\nanalysis of the stocks and futures market in graphic form. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle\nand Technical Editor John Sweeney spoke with John McGinley, Technical Trends' editor, via a telephone\ninterview on February 21,1991. (See also in this issue Arthur Merrill's article, \""Testing indicators.\"")
JS: So what do you like to trade, anyway?
Oh, if I trade anything it's the NYFE contract. That's the only thing I've ever dabbled in.
TH: But you do invest in the stock market?
Only in mutual funds. When I decide to dabble, I get the money out of money funds and put it into a\nbasket of mutual funds, usually small-stock, rapid-growth funds like Acorn or Janus or Windsor. I\nrecommend to [Technical Trends ] subscribers that they not buy individual issues, because there's a rule\nof thumb: the investor is the lowest man on the information totem pole and the second-lowest man is\nyour broker. If you think your broker is going to give you the first phone call when it's time to get out,\nI've got a bridge for sale. And if you think your broker is the first phone call the research department will\nmake when it's time to get out of the stock, I have a second bridge for sale, this one in Iraq.
JS: Do you time your entrances and exits to the funds?
Yes, I basically use Technical Trends' balance — I try to buy and sell at what seem to be extremes of\nsentiment as monitored by our balances. When the odds are overwhelmingly in our favor I leap in,\ndepending on where I think we are in the framework of the market. Are we beginning a major bull\nmarket, have we just had a major bear market, or is it a minor turn? That will tell me how much to invest.\nAnother thing that tells me is the feeling in the pit of my stomach."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-180-186-john-mcginley-of-technical-trends-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-180-186-john-mcginley-of-technical-trends-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-180-186-john-mcginley-of-technical-trends-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-testing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (187-188): Testing Indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Testing Indicators\nby Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Analysts consult scores of indicators to get clues for the future. At any given instant, however, some of\nthe indicators are bullish and some are bearish. They are never unanimous. Which should we believe?\nWhich should be given the most weight?
Too often, I suspect, analysts tend to give the most weight to the indicators that happen to agree with the\nanalysts' own convictions. If the analyst is bullish, he tends to believe the bullish indicators; if he is\nbearish, he likes the bearish indicators. This bias may be totally unconscious.
To avoid this bias, some analysts use coefficients of correlation. The method I devised seems to give me\nsimple, understandable and useful measures of performance. The method gives me batting averages.\nHere's the method:
First, we accumulate a data file for each indicator, logging in the indicator's forecasts. I ask an indicator,\neach week in the past 10 years, whether it is bullish, bearish or on the fence. Each week I log in the digit\n\""2\"" if the forecast in that week was bullish; \""1\"" if bearish and \""0\"" if on the fence."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-187-188-testing-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-187-188-testing-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-187-188-testing-indicators-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-relativ-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (190-193): Relative Strength Investing by Robert L. Hand Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Relative Strength Investing\nby Robert L. Hand Jr.
Many believe that the stock market is rigged and the average small investor has no chance against the\ninstitutional investors. In reality, the stock market gives the individual investor more opportunity to\nprofit, because they can be investors, not traders. Traders look to invest with a short time horizon, with\ntheir objective being to outperform the market average by catching stocks at their maximum momentum\nrise in price. Investors, on the other hand, have a long time horizon, which allows them to look for\ncompanies whose business they simply want to participate in, with the expectation that owning these\nstocks will create wealth. It's a far different strategy to trade stocks that are hot, compared with owning\nstocks that you can bequeath to your heirs. Many individuals do not have the discipline required to be\ntraders and cannot keep their ego out of the decision-making process. Sometimes you have to go against\nwhat seems right. If you can't stand to buy in at a higher price than when you sold, you should never sell a\nstock — because sometimes, invariably, you'll be wrong to sell. Such confusion of ego with investment\nstrategy keeps individuals from creating wealth. However, if your goal is to create wealth and you can be\npatient, then I'd like to introduce you to relative strength investing.
OWN FOR THE YEARS, NOT MINUTES
To measure relative strength, divide the percentage change in stock price by the percentage change in the\nindex, which represents the market as a whole. Relative strength shows you the strongest performers in\nprice among your specific population of stocks. These are the stocks you should own, until they no longer\nhave the best relative strength. Sometimes you can end up owning the stock for a long time. For example,\nthis has been the situation for Coca Cola for more than two years; if you 'd bought back then, you'd have bought it at $15. Now it's at $48."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-190-193-relative-strength-investing-by-robert-l-hand-jr-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-190-193-relative-strength-investing-by-robert-l-hand-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-190-193-relative-strength-investing-by-robert-l-hand-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-dofive-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (194-196): Do Five-Year Growth Rates Mean Anything? by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Do Five-Year Growth Rates Mean Anything?\nby Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D.
The five-year growth rate, usually of earnings, is a common index of a company's well-being. Other\nfactors being the same, you would want to own the stock of a company with a high five-year growth rate\nand avoid or sell short the stock of a company with a negative growth rate. In financial or advisory\npublications such as Financial World or Barron's, the five-year growth rates are calculated and presented\nas significant data when stocks are being discussed or compared.
Obviously, it's worth a look to find out how to calculate this important number. Can it always be\ncalculated? Sometimes there is a blank in the five-year earnings growth rate box. Is there only one way to\ncompute it? Does it matter how it is computed? Take a closer look, using some imaginary companies\nwith clearly different records.
The earnings histories of six companies are represented in Figure 1. Note all begin the first year with\n$1.00 earnings per share and end at the close of the fifth year with $2.00 per share. Could anybody\nbelieve that they all have the same earnings growth? According to one method of calculation, they do!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-194-196-do-five-year-growth-rates-mean-anything-by-lewis-carl-mokrasch-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-194-196-do-five-year-growth-rates-mean-anything-by-lewis-carl-mokrasch-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-194-196-do-five-year-growth-rates-mean-anything-by-lewis-carl-mokrasch-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-formand-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (197-201): Form And Pattern As A Trading Tool by Robert Miner"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Form And Pattern As A Trading Tool\nby Robert Miner
Pattern recognition has been the topic of much technical literature. From the Elliott wave theory to\nEdwards and Magee, traders have been told that some fairly well-defined chart patterns indicate the\nmarket's position and the most likely outcome of the ensuing market activity, as indicated from a\nparticular chart pattern. While it is important for every trader to be familiar with traditional chart patterns\nthat have been found to be reliable indications of the market position, it is also important for the trader to\nanalyze any individual market for the way in which it unfolds in bull or bear cycles and for patterns\nunique to that market. A trader will find that for every unique market there is often a form in which a\ncycle will unfold and there is a chart pattern of activity that develops at important junctures.
MASTER OF THE GAME
If a trader is to be successful, he should master every market he intends to trade by relentlessly analyzing\nthat market from every perspective for as far back as data are available. There is no excuse not to be\nintimately familiar with a market and its peculiarities, as the data for every market as well as charting and\nanalysis software are easily available.\nThe trader must always keep in mind several concepts to make the right decision:
1. Market activity must be viewed from all perspectives and relationships: time, price, position and\npattern. No single aspect of market activity can be viewed out of context of the other dimensions.
2. The trader must have a firm idea of the market's position in comparison with the long-, intermediate-\nand short-term trends. The trader must recognize whether the market is in a position of strength or\nweakness or near a termination of a trend.
3. The trader must have a well-defined trading plan that reflects his trading goals.
4. The trader must have specific trading strategies to take advantage of his knowledge of the market and\nits position to fulfill his trading plan."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-197-201-form-and-pattern-as-a-trading-tool-by-robert-miner-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-197-201-form-and-pattern-as-a-trading-tool-by-robert-miner-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-197-201-form-and-pattern-as-a-trading-tool-by-robert-miner-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-double-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (202-205): Double-Smoothed Momenta by William Blau"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Double-Smoothed Momenta\nby William Blau
The prices of stocks and commodities are usually plotted as bar graphs. In a bar graph, each bar\nrepresents a certain time interval, be it an intraday, daily or weekly bar. The last price in each time\ninterval is designated as the close. For certain markets, the daily close is actually a price determined from\nthe period that makes up the closing range.
The close, or settlement price (the price at which all outstanding positions in a stock or commodity are\nmarked to market), could be considered the most important piece of trading data. One reason is that the\nclose may psychologically affect the trader's outlook. For example, a position that is a loss during an\nintraday time period may become profitable by the close, increasing the trader's confidence that the\nposition is the correct one. Another reason is that intraday volatility often clouds the true direction of the\nmarket. Focusing on the closing prices can provide a clearer picture of the trend. Numerous technical\nindicators are based only on the closing price.
However, many technical indicators that a use the closing price are oversensitive to the singular changes\nin direction of the closing price. A number of these indicators will in effect give false trading signals due\nto this sensitivity. Clearly, the method used to smooth the price curve is very important. An indicator that\ngives smooth curves that indicate price levels at important peaks or valleys would be a superior trading\ntool.
One such indicator is the Double-smoothed Momenta (DM). The formula for the double-smoothed\nmomenta relates various portions of a series of closing data to today's close (Figure 1). The formula takes\ninto account maximum and minimum values of the closing price in prescribed intervals. These\nrelationships are then smoothed through the use of multiple exponentially smoothed moving averages (or,\nin other words, an exponential moving average of an exponential moving average). This indicator is\ndesigned to warn of overbought and oversold market conditions and to reduce false trading signals."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-202-205-double-smoothed-momenta-by-william-blau-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-202-205-double-smoothed-momenta-by-william-blau-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-202-205-double-smoothed-momenta-by-william-blau-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-sidebt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (202-205): SIDEBAR: TWO VERSIONS OF THE RSI FORMULA"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TWO VERSIONS OF THE RSI FORMULA
Derivation of the RSI formula containing an exponential moving average, from the basic RSI formula, page 205."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-202-205-sidebar-two-versions-of-the-rsi-formula-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-202-205-sidebar-two-versions-of-the-rsi-formula-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-202-205-sidebar-two-versions-of-the-rsi-formula-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-avoid-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (206-207): Avoiding Overconfidence by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Avoiding Overconfidence\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
If I could give just one piece of advice to a trader, it would be: Avoid overconfidence—it could be your\nworst enemy. Thousands of traders make the mistake of becoming overconfident each month and lose\nsubstantial amounts of money. For example, the following incidents were brought to my attention just\nrecently:
A trader — whom we will call Henry — needed to make $7,000 each month to meet his living\nexpenses. This particular month was exceptional; he made $20,000 in two weeks making low-risk\ntrades and following his own trading rules. He was feeling on top of the world; he could do no wrong.\nOne Friday morning, however, he noticed a marginal trade that involved more risk than he normally\ntook. Henry decided to take it. The market immediately went against him and he was stopped out for a\n$1,500 loss. His money management rules called for a maximum risk of $1,000 on a trade, so his early\nmorning results were totally unacceptable. As a result, he quickly opened up another high-risk\nmarginal position. By the end of the day, he'd lost a total of $4,500. The following Monday he was\nstill upset about losing $4,500. He took several more high-risk trades, only to lose another $3,500.
A trader in the Midwest told me that he had made $80,000 in profits on a $40,000 account in two\nmonths of conservative trading. Then, he said, he stopped paying attention to risk — and blew out his\ntotal profit in two weeks.
I visited a client in New York and spent some time talking to the firm's president about his trading.\nIndirectly, the company president mentioned how he was trading — he had most of his money tied up\nin large spread positions. I looked at what he was doing and told him that it could cost him his\ncompany. In response, he told me that he was totally protected — that it was a spread position with\nzero risk. Two months later, the firm lost $1.5 million from that position."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-206-207-avoiding-overconfidence-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-206-207-avoiding-overconfidence-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-206-207-avoiding-overconfidence-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-histori-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (208-210): The Historical Dow by Carl Sundquist"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Historical Dow\nby Carl Sundquist
Recently, The Wall Street Journal completed 94 years of continuous publication of the Dow Jones\nIndustrial and Railroad (now Transportation) averages. Quite a record. Charles Dow, the first editor and\nfounder of The Wall Street Journal, is credited with the compilation of the original averages. He did not\nuse a weighted mean or make adjustments of any nature but simply added the closing price of the stocks\nin his averages and divided the total by the number of companies in his list.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as we know it dates back to October 1928. The list was then\nexpanded from 20 stocks with several substitutions to compile the original average of 30 stocks (Figure\n1). The average at that time was made up of some issues that are vaguely familiar today or strikes a\nmemory somehow, while others on the list have been completely forgotten, absorbed into other\ncompanies, changed their own names or gone out of business entirely. Keeping with the original system\nof compilation, the current price of the listed stocks in 1928 was added together and divided by 16.67.
Subsequent changes were made in the average through the years. Various stocks were taken off the list,\nwhile others were added, with adjustments made for stock splits. The current DJIA's list has stocks in\ncommon with the original, but differs quite a bit otherwise (Figure 2). Curiously, International Business\nMachines Co. (IBM) has been the prodigal son of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at times banished\nfrom the list yet allowed to return later. IBM was first placed on the list on May 26, 1932, replacing\nNational Cash Register, only to be replaced a few years later on March 14, 1939, by American Telephone\n& Telegraph (AT&T). Only after an absence of 40 years was IBM brought back into the fold on June 29,\n1979, replacing Chrysler Motors; it has remained on the list ever since. We are never told by whose\nmysterious hand at Dow Jones & Co., the keeper of the average, these changes are made. In fact, we are\nseldom told why the substitutions are made; we can only guess, watching the changes and using them as\nreflections of the era."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-208-210-the-historical-dow-by-carl-sundquist-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-208-210-the-historical-dow-by-carl-sundquist-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-208-210-the-historical-dow-by-carl-sundquist-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-spreado-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (211-213): Using Spread Orders To Roll Forward by Csaba Radnoty"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Spread Orders To Roll Forward\nby Csaba Radnoty
Most futures contracts have a delivery mechanism that involves the exchange of physicals for cash.\nUnderstandably, few traders want to deal with the delivery process. To liquidate positions nearing\ndelivery and to establish new ones, traders use spread rolls, a technique used when rolling forward to a\nnew contract month. Most speculators prefer trading futures contracts that have the greatest amount of\nvolume and open interest, which provide the greatest liquidity. Usually, it is the front month that meets\nthese qualifications. As the contract approaches its expiration date, the trading volume and open interest\nbegin to shift to another contract month. (Sometimes, this shift occurs near the first notice day or the last\ntrading day.) For example, Figures 1 and 2 are March 1991 corn and May 1991 corn. The bottom of each\nchart displays the open interest and the daily volume for each contract. After December the March\ncontract has steadily declining open interest, while open interest for the May contract is increasing. The\ndaily volume for March delivery begins to subside in February when compared with January, while the\ndaily activity increases for the May contract. Most frequently, it is not the front month but the next\ncontract month that will reflect the greatest open interest, but not always. So, when rolling forward it is\nimportant to monitor the volume and in particular the open interest to be certain one selects the\nappropriate (that is, the most liquid) contract month.
The concern over liquidity arises because in an illiquid market it is almost impossible to obtain the price\nyou want. With few traders in the market, buyers will not necessarily come in at your sell price or,\nconversely, sellers may not be available at your buying price, resulting in an unacceptable amount of\nslippage in your trade."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-211-213-using-spread-orders-to-roll-forward-by-csaba-radnoty-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-211-213-using-spread-orders-to-roll-forward-by-csaba-radnoty-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-211-213-using-spread-orders-to-roll-forward-by-csaba-radnoty-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-diversi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (214-215): Diversification And Risk by Raymond Rothschild"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Diversification And Risk\nby Raymond Rothschild
No method of stock or equity selection is perfect. Even the best of schemes can fail. For example,\nsuppose we had a system of selecting stocks with a probability of success of two thirds. The probability\nof failure, then, would be one third. The odds of success versus failure are therefore 2 to 1. Assume for\nthe moment that we invested our total capital and that each time an investment succeeded we would\ndouble our money, but a failure would result in a complete loss. A1-though the probability of winning on\nthe first try is good, a high probability of losing everything would still exist as the number of trials\nincreased. There must be a better way of managing our money.
Actually, if we had an unlimited amount of capital and invested in smaller equal amounts, eventually two\nthirds of our choices would be winners and only one third would be losers. In the long run, we would be\nsure winners —but in the long run.
A MORE OR LESS REAL WORLD
We live in a real world, however, wherein the average investor does not have an unlimited amount of\nmoney. Can the risk of loss be reduced? Yes, provided we divide our starting capital into smaller equal\namounts. Suppose we apportioned our total purse into five equal shares. How would that affect the\noutcome? (The details of the probability distributions are shown in the sidebar entitled \""Probability\nconsiderations.\"")"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-214-215-diversification-and-risk-by-raymond-rothschild-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-214-215-diversification-and-risk-by-raymond-rothschild-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-214-215-diversification-and-risk-by-raymond-rothschild-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-sidebp-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (214-215): SIDEBAR: PROBABILITY CONSIDERATIONS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PROBABILITY CONSIDERATIONS
Statistics using a binomial formula to calculate failure and success probabilities of stocks, page 215."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-214-215-sidebar-probability-considerations-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-214-215-sidebar-probability-considerations-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-214-215-sidebar-probability-considerations-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c05-skimmin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:5 (216-217): The Skimming Discussion Continues by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Skimming Discussion Continues\nby John Sweeney
Remember the moving average \""skimming\"" discussion that's gone on over the last several issues? I\nreceived another cogent letter describing the effect for a half-wave moving average. Amos Newcombe of\nManor Lake, NY, makes the point that to \""skim\"" tops and bottoms precisely, the amplitude of any\ninherent cycle must be the same size as any trend over one-quarter of a cycle:
This is in reply to your article \""Average Behavior\"" [STOCKS & COMMODITIES, April 1991]. You say that\nthe half-cycle moving average moves along the bottom of rising trends. Let us idealize this price\nmovement as follows:
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-216-217-the-skimming-discussion-continues-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-216-217-the-skimming-discussion-continues-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-5-216-217-the-skimming-discussion-continues-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-buildin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (219-223): Building A Variable-Length Moving Average by George R. Arrington, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Building A Variable-Length Moving Average\nby George R. Arrington, Ph.D.
Of the tools in the technician's arsenal, the moving average is one of the most popular. It is used to\neliminate minor fluctuations in prices, filter data noise and identify any underlying trend. Ideally, a\nmoving average is sensitive enough to signal when a new trend has begun, yet able to ignore short-term\nrandom price movements at the same time.
As long as the underlying trend continues, longer averages work well, but shorter averages do a better job\nof indicating changes in trends. As a result, many technicians use two or more averages to identify\nemerging trends and to generate buy/sell signals.
In a variable-length moving average (VLMA), the length of the average depends on the relative\nmagnitude of recent price changes. If recent price changes are \""unusually\"" large, the length of the moving\naverage is shortened and the average automatically becomes more sensitive to emerging trends.\nConversely, if price changes are stable within a given narrow range, the length of the moving average\nautomatically increases.
If the market is not trending, prices will tend to fluctuate around the arithmetic mean of the data series. A\ncommon measure of the degree of dispersion about the mean is the standard deviation. The likelihood of\nactually observing unusually high or low prices decreases as prices get farther away from the mean (that\nis, more standard deviations)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-219-223-building-a-variable-length-moving-average-by-george-r-arrington-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-219-223-building-a-variable-length-moving-average-by-george-r-arrington-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-219-223-building-a-variable-length-moving-average-by-george-r-arrington-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-sidebb-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (219-223): SIDEBAR: BUILDING THE VARIABLE-LENGTH MOVING AVERAGE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""BUILDING THE VARIABLE-LENGTH\nMOVING AVERAGE
Seven steps to constructing a variable-length moving average, page 223."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-219-223-sidebar-building-the-variable-length-moving-average-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-219-223-sidebar-building-the-variable-length-moving-average-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-219-223-sidebar-building-the-variable-length-moving-average-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-sidebw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (224-227): SIDEBAR: THE WYCKOFF WAVE"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE WYCKOFF WAVE
The Wyckoff wave used as a common stock price index, page 227."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-224-227-sidebar-the-wyckoff-wave-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-224-227-sidebar-the-wyckoff-wave-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-224-227-sidebar-the-wyckoff-wave-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-wyckoff-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (224-227): Wyckoff: Timing Your Commitments by Craig F. Schroeder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Wyckoff: Timing Your Commitments\nby Craig F. Schroeder
The Wyckoff method ends where it begins — with the general market. Step 5 of the Wyckoff method,\nthe final step and the topic of this month's discussion of the Wyckoff method, instructs the Wyckoff\nstudent to time positions in individual issues to anticipated turns in the general market.
The logic of this is easy to understand. If the first four steps of the Wyckoff method have been correctly\napplied, the results will be enhanced by a market that is moving with a particular position. While it is true\nthat all markets will have issues that make substantial moves counter to the prevailing trend, most\nindividual stocks will go with the trend following the line of least resistance. The odds of achieving\nsuccess are improved by selecting positions from the majority rather than by trying to identify the\nminority.
In his course in stock market science and technique, Richard D. Wyckoff stated the basics of his method\nin five steps:
Step 1: Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. Then decide how you\nare going to play the game: long, short or neutral.
Step 2: Select from those stocks in harmony with the market the ones stronger than the market in a bull\nmarket. In a bear market, select those that are weaker than the market.
Step 3: Select those stocks that have built up a cause, a potential count for a move in keeping with\nyour goals.
..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-224-227-wyckoff-timing-your-commitments-by-craig-f-schroeder-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-224-227-wyckoff-timing-your-commitments-by-craig-f-schroeder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-224-227-wyckoff-timing-your-commitments-by-craig-f-schroeder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-topsbot-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (228-229): Picking Tops And Bottoms With The Tick Index by Tim Ord"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Picking Tops And Bottoms With The Tick Index\nby Tim Ord
As a young trader, I first used moving averages, point and figure charts and some Gann methods and\nthen moved on to the Elliott wave fad. But none of these methods or techniques really gave me a strong\nsignal for a top or bottom in the market. What I did learn in my early years as a trader was that running\nwith the masses is a guaranteed subscription to failure. It is said that 80% of the people who trade the\nmarkets lose; from my experience, I'd say this is true. The losing majority fund the marketwise minority.
I wanted a trading method that kept me on the opposite side of the losing public and gave me a more\nabsolute signal in picking tops and bottoms in the market. I also wanted an undiscovered method that the\ntrading masses hadn't overused. That eliminated moving averages, which got me short at bottoms and\nlong at tops, and Gann and Elliott methods, which pointed to a top or bottom after it occurred.
What I found was the tick index, carried by most live intraday quote services, and I have found it to\naccurately forecast market tops and bottoms and indicate buy and sell levels. This method uses intraday\nuptick and downtick readings of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to forecast tops and bottoms in\nthe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and to generate buy and sell signals that span one to 10 days.
UPTICKS AND DOWNTICKS
The tick index is the difference between the number of issues trading with the last trade higher (an\nuptick) from the previous price and issues trading with the last trade lower (a downtick) from the\nprevious price. For example, if exchange X has 500 issues trading on an uptick and 250 issues trading on\na downtick, the tick index would be +500 - 250 = +250."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-228-229-picking-tops-and-bottoms-with-the-tick-index-by-tim-ord-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-228-229-picking-tops-and-bottoms-with-the-tick-index-by-tim-ord-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-228-229-picking-tops-and-bottoms-with-the-tick-index-by-tim-ord-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-basics-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (230-232): The Basics Of Developing A Neural Trading System by Lou Mendelsohn"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Basics Of Developing A Neural Trading\nSystem\nby Lou Mendelsohn
As traders begin to experiment with and apply artificial neural systems to financial forecasting, there\nare pitfalls to avoid in the design and training of these systems so this new technology can be used\neffectively and profitably. If you want to develop a neural system to predict the Standard & Poor's 500\nstock index (S&P 500) or the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the next day, for instance, you\nwould need to specify five factors: the output that you want to forecast, the input data requirements, the\ntype of neural system to apply to the problem, its size and structure.
First, a neural system can predict four outputs: classification, pattern, real numbers (such as tomorrow's\nS&P 500 or DJIA close) and optimization.
Second, you need to select the input data that will be used by the neural system. The data should be\nrelated to the output that you want to forecast. Unlike conventional technical trading systems, neural\nsystems work well when you combine technical and fundamental data. Remember that apparently\nirrelevant data could conceivably allow the network to make distinctions that are not readily apparent, so\ndon't be afraid to include such data as an input. During training, the neural system will sift through all the\ninput data to determine relevance and may turn up with something that could surprise you."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-230-232-the-basics-of-developing-a-neural-trading-system-by-lou-mendelsohn-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-230-232-the-basics-of-developing-a-neural-trading-system-by-lou-mendelsohn-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-230-232-the-basics-of-developing-a-neural-trading-system-by-lou-mendelsohn-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-howimpo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (233-234): How Important Is A Turning Point? by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""How Important Is A Turning Point?\nby Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
So, naturalists observe a flea
Hath smaller fleas that on him prey
And these have smaller still to bite 'em;
And so proceed ad infinitum.
—Jonathan Swift
So goes the market. Waves within waves within waves. Sometimes it's difficult to see the forest; we\nsee only the trees. The Dow theory is concerned with penetration of turning point levels. When does a\nturning point become important enough to set an important level?
The Elliott wave theory is concerned with waves of various magnitudes. When does a turning point\nbecome important enough to qualify for the next class of waves?
These questions can be addressed with the help of magnitude filters, a technique of filtering out market\nswings smaller than a specified magnitude.
Point and figure charts do this. On a one-point chart, all swings of less than one point are ignored, or\nfiltered out. On a three-point chart, all swings of less than three points are filtered out or ignored. The\nturning point on a three-point chart is more important than the turning point on a one-point chart.
In stock prices, however, points such as on a point and figure chart are a very poor measure. One point on\na $10 stock means a lot more than one point on a $100 stock. If we are going to measure importance, we\nhave to work with percentage changes, not point changes. Percentage is a much more reliable yardstick."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-233-234-how-important-is-a-turning-point-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-233-234-how-important-is-a-turning-point-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-233-234-how-important-is-a-turning-point-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-flowing-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (235-236): Flowing With The Markets by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Flowing With The Markets\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Imagine yourself flowing down a river, only you don't know that you are. You do, however, notice that\nwhen you move in one direction, with the flow of the river, you move rapidly. When you move in another\ndirection, against the river, you move slowly or not at all. In fact, when you go in that direction, you seem\nto put out a lot more effort just to stay in place. Your life becomes a struggle. It just seems to push you in\nanother direction. Feeling miserable, you fight against it. But it doesn't help. You still seem to move only\nin one direction — with the flow of the river.
Most people prefer to struggle against the river. They try everything they can think of to go upstream. All\nsolutions like this — going against the flow — have the same result: frustration. If you were in the river,\nwhat could you do to make your life easier? One solution would be to get out of the river. But that would\nbe giving up. There is only one easy solution — to acknowledge or accept that the problem has nothing to\ndo with the river. The river just is. And it moves downstream, and nothing you do can change that. When\nyou realize that the problem stems from you, then the solution becomes obvious — just relax and flow\nwith the river."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-235-236-flowing-with-the-markets-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-235-236-flowing-with-the-markets-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-235-236-flowing-with-the-markets-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-stoch-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (237-238): Comparing Indicators: Stochastics %K versus Williams' %R by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Comparing Indicators: Stochastics %K versus\nWilliams' %R\nby Thom Hartle
Ironically, technicians today suffer from overabundance. Compared with the dearth of only a few years\nago, technical analysis packages today offer so many indicators that a trader can be overwhelmed. As a\nconsequence, building a trading system based on an array of technical indicators requires painstaking\ninvestigation to assure that each indicator is appropriate for the task in question. A typical trading system,\nfor instance, could have long, intermediate- and short-term indicators intended to produce trading signals\nwith different time horizons. Now, many indicators have demonstrated unique rates of success for\nindividual markets for different time horizons. On one hand, a simple moving average is a good indicator\nof the direction of a intermediate- to long-term trend, but it is ill-suited to forewarn of a possible reversal.\nOn the other hand, an oscillator will alert a trader of a loss of momentum setting the stage for a reversal,\nbut it will produce ineffective signals regarding the trend, perhaps signaling reversals while the trend\ncontinues. The choice of technical studies can confuse more than enlight.
DOUBLE, DOUBLE
One problem arising from a surfeit of indicators is the possibility of two different indicators duplicating\nsignals. An example of this situation is the application of the stochastics indicator (%K) and Williams'\n%R. Both indicators are overbought/oversold oscillators. In fact, both of these oscillators observe the\nsame thing.
(The stochastics oscillator has two components: %K and %D. Our concern here is directed toward %K,\nbecause %D is simply a three-day smoothed version of the %K and not germane to the comparison of the\nstochastics %K and Williams' %R.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-237-238-comparing-indicators-stochastics-k-versus-williams-r-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-237-238-comparing-indicators-stochastics-k-versus-williams-r-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-237-238-comparing-indicators-stochastics-k-versus-williams-r-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-endofth-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (239-241): The End-Of-The-Month Effect by Ben Warwick"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The End-Of-The-Month Effect\nby Ben Warwick
Back-testing has radically changed the way traders view the markets. Although no one has yet found\nthe Holy Grail of trading, the ultimate goal remains the same: to create a system that consistently yields\nprofits with a reasonable amount of risk. Alternatively, a portfolio of trades can be developed using\ntechnical, fundamental and seasonal factors. One such strategy is the end-of-month (EOM) trade.
Studying the EOM effect, mentioned by Martin Zweig as well as others, suggests that the majority of the\nstock market's gains are generated during specific periods at the end of one month and the beginning of\nthe next. This phenomenon appears to be caused by the tendency of corporate equity holders to group\ntheir purchases at month's end. Considering the size of the mutual fund industry (about $500 billion), it\nseems reasonable to expect such an anomaly to occur.
I tested four different holding periods from June 1988 to February 1991 to determine the one with the\nbest risk/reward parameters:
HOLDING PERIODS
I Buy 3 days before end of month, sell 1st day of next month
II Buy 3 days before end of month, sell 2nd day of next month
III Buy 2 days before end of month, sell 1st day of next month
IVBuy 2 days before end of month, sell 2nd day of next month
As Figures 1 through 4 show, the third holding period yields the best results in both performance\ncategories, average winner/average loser and average winner/average winning drawdown. The maximum\ndrawdown for holding periods I and II of 1,143 points ($5,715 in the Standard & Poor's 500), however, is\nquite large. It makes sense to use a stop-loss technique to manage one's risk."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-239-241-the-end-of-the-month-effect-by-ben-warwick-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-239-241-the-end-of-the-month-effect-by-ben-warwick-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-239-241-the-end-of-the-month-effect-by-ben-warwick-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-takealo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (242-243): Take A Look At The Dow by Daniel E. Downing"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Take A Look At The Dow\nby Daniel E. Downing
In the past, one of the first requirements of being a technical analyst was a promise of sorts to ignore the\nprice action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A technician had to focus on the action of more\nbroadly based stock averages such as the New York Composite Index, the Standard & Poor's 500, or the\nValue Line Index to get an understanding of what the market was doing. The thinking behind this was\nthat the price action of these more broadly based indices gave a truer picture of what was going on in the\nstock market and better represented the best predictive mechanism for price forecasting. Strength in the\nS&P 500 meant that the entire equity market was strong, regardless of the action of the Dow Jones\nIndustrials (DJI).
That thinking must change. Now, the real world is best represented by the Dow Jones Industrials, and this\nis why the time has come to focus on the action of the DJI more than any other stock index or average.
INSTITUTIONAL VS. INDIVIDUAL
Over the past 20 years, the institutional investor has become the dominant player in the stock market and\nthe individual investor has become the less dominant player. With the dominance of the institutional\ninvestor has come (in the last five years) a priority of mirroring and not beating the stock averages\nthrough the advent of indexing and index funds. A survey shows that 27% of all institutional equity funds\nare indexed. The net result? A small number of large-capitalization stocks are concentrated in the hands\nof institutional owners. Of the 30 stocks in the DJI, 28 most likely fall into this category"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-242-243-take-a-look-at-the-dow-by-daniel-e-downing-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-242-243-take-a-look-at-the-dow-by-daniel-e-downing-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-242-243-take-a-look-at-the-dow-by-daniel-e-downing-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-risktra-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (244-247): Comparative Risk Transfer Method by Richard A. Harrison"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Comparative Risk Transfer Method\nby Richard A. Harrison
It would be nice to get the higher returns of a speculative investment like a managed futures fund, but\nthey're just too risky.\"" Is that statement familiar? There is a method that allows an investor to move into\nthese speculative investments with a limited predetermined risk. It also provides several advantages over\nthe \""guaranteed\"" futures funds. I call it comparative risk transfer, which provides greater liquidity and\ncontrol for a very limited amount of risk during the initial phase of the program.
\""GUARANTEED\"" FUTURES FUNDS
Several brokerage firms sell what they refer to as \""guaranteed\"" futures funds, which are usually a\ncombination of a managed futures fund and zero coupon bonds. The fund will be given some percentage\nof the capital (say, 40%) and the remaining capital (60%) goes into five-year zero coupon bonds. If the\nmanaged futures fund loses 50% of its portion (50% x 40% = 20% of total capital), then trading in the\nfund will be halted. The zero coupon bonds will continue to maturity and provide a 33% gain on their\nportion (33% x 60% = 20% of total capital), canceling the loss from the managed futures fund—thus the\nlabel \""guaranteed.\""
These \""guaranteed\"" futures funds have advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is the opportunity\nof increased gain with a managed futures fund with no risk of losing any of the original capital. The\ndisadvantage is that if the managed futures fund performs below the zero coupon rate of return, then the\ninvestors will make less than they would have with just the bonds.
In addition, if the managed futures fund loses money, then the overall investment could very well\nperform below the rate of inflation — not to mention the money will be tied up for five years."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-244-247-comparative-risk-transfer-method-by-richard-a-harrison-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-244-247-comparative-risk-transfer-method-by-richard-a-harrison-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-244-247-comparative-risk-transfer-method-by-richard-a-harrison-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-johnmur-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (248-254): John Murphy: Intermarket Analyst by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""John Murphy: Intermarket Analyst by Thom Hartle
When you think of classic textbooks on technical analysis, John J. Murphy's Technical Analysis of the\nFutures Markets comes to mind. Murphy, who is also the resident technical analyst for cable television's\nCNBC, has lately published Intermarket Technical Analysis, which takes the analysis of markets into the\nglobal arena, demonstrating how to monitor the effects that today's interrelated and interdependent\nmarkets have on each other. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Murphy via\ntelephone on March 20,1991.
\""A stock market technician can apply all the technical indicators he wants to the stock market, but if he\nstops there, it's not going to work because the influences that affect the stock market are outside the\nmarket. \""—John Murphy
John, for our readers I'd like to have a brief overview of what you've done. You've been in the\nbusiness of trading and following markets for about 20 years now, right?
I actually started in the late 1960s— I think it was 1967 or 1968—as a stock market technician. I worked\nfor CIT Financial Corporation. I was a junior technical analyst and for the first two or three years I\nlearned the basics of charting in the stock market. However, in the early 1970s I switched over to the\ncommodities market and I joined Merrill Lynch in 1970 in their commodity technical department. I was\nput in charge of their technical department in the early 1970s, which was when we had that explosion in\nthe commodity markets. Then I left Merrill for a little while and then returned. I was again in charge of\ntheir technical department for a while. Then I left the research area and managed money for several years,\nagain with Merrill.
However, in the early 1980s I sort of retired from the business. I took a sabbatical, and in many ways it\nbegan a second career for me. I started my own consulting business, and I started to teach a course in\ntechnical analysis— there was very little taught on technical analysis in the early 1980s. I taught at New\nYork University, the World Trade Institute and at the New York Institute of Finance. Then I gradually\nstarted getting more involved with the markets again. I started writing a newsletter.
But it was the work at the New York Institute of Finance that led to the writing of Technical Analysis of\nthe Futures Markets, because there really wasn't a textbook that explained all the different principles that I liked to get into; I use a lot of different things in technical analysis, and it was a problem teaching a\ncourse [on the topic] because there was really nothing written that put everything in one place. The\nInstitute of Finance was owned by [publisher] Prentice-Hall, so they encouraged me to put something in\nwriting."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-248-254-john-murphy-intermarket-analyst-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-248-254-john-murphy-intermarket-analyst-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-248-254-john-murphy-intermarket-analyst-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c06-deutsch-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:6 (255-256): Trading The Deutschemark's Gaps by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Trading The Deutschemark's Gaps\nby John Sweeney
Talk about humiliation! Looking at a Deutschemark chart, I figured I'd trade with the direction of any\ngap for short small gains. The evidence showed I was 180 degrees wrong! I asked my computer to look at\nfour years of mark prices and trade long if the opening price were above the previous day's range and\nshort if it were below it. Ignoring my usual practice, I asked only what the best and worst move for each\nintraday trade would be.
As you can see from Figure 1, there is very little difference between favorable (MFE) and unfavorable\n(MAE) price movement when trading this way. In fact, even if you ask about the price movement after\nentry for one, two or even 12 days out, there is very little difference. I've never seen such an even\ndistribution, except for that 10th day's probably anomalous adverse excursion.
Out of pure stubbornness, I asked the computer to do the same tallies when the gap was at least 10 points,\nthen 20 and so on up to 50 points. Slowly, something emerged.
The favorable excursion, as seen in Figure 2, never changed perceptibly from that seen when trading with\njust a one-point gap even as the minimum gap got bigger and bigger. The maximum favorable excursion\n(MFE) of at least 0.5 (50 trading points) is virtually identical to that when the size of the gap is just one\npoint."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-255-256-trading-the-deutschemark-s-gaps-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-255-256-trading-the-deutschemark-s-gaps-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-6-255-256-trading-the-deutschemark-s-gaps-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-consoli-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (259-263): Analyzing Volume For Consolidations And Reversals by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Analyzing Volume For Consolidations And\nReversals\nby Thom Hartle
Markets move from one price level to another as trends. Once a trend has been established,\ntechnicians tend to continually analyze the market searching for clues about the current status of the\ntrend. Is the trend beginning to weaken? Will the trend be reversed? Or will the market consolidate and\nthen resume the trend? A market that has had a sustained advance will typically enter into a trading range.\nHow can you ascertain whether the trading range is a consolidation or a reversal? Analysis of the volume\nand the price action is the key.
In the futures market, when a buyer and a seller agree on a price, a contract is either created, transferred,\nor liquidated. Each time this process is completed there is an increase in the daily volume by one\ncontract. The larger the volume is for a day's trading, the more buyers and sellers have either established\nnew positions, long or short, or liquidated old positions. The most active days are usually accompanied\nby fundamental news that affects traders' and investors' opinions about the near-term direction for the\nmarket. For example, an economic news release with positive data for a market will bring about a wave\nof buying, driving prices higher. Occasionally, the good news that triggered the higher prices is really the last hurrah for the market, which ultimately trades to lower prices. In retrospect, it appears as if the more\nastute traders took profits into the higher prices generated by the good news."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-259-263-analyzing-volume-for-consolidations-and-reversals-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-259-263-analyzing-volume-for-consolidations-and-reversals-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-259-263-analyzing-volume-for-consolidations-and-reversals-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-howinte-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (264-266): How interest Rates Affect Stock Prices by Mark C. Snead"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How lnterest Rates Affect Stock Prices\nby Mark C. Snead
The basic theoretical relationship between changes in long-term interest rates and stock prices is\ninverse. Falling interest rates signal rising stock prices, while inversely, rising interest rates signal falling\nstock prices. Changes in interest rates affect stock prices inversely for two distinct reasons.
First, as interest rates fall, corporate borrowing costs (to fund expansions, acquisitions, inventories and so\nforth) decrease, and the outlook improves for future corporate profits. Investors view stock ownership\nfavorably when corporate profits improve. Second, when interest rates on long-term debt instruments fall\nto lower, less attractive levels, investors gain the incentive to seek the historically higher long-term\nreturns that equities offer.
In both cases, investors react to lower long-term interest rates and so direct investment funds toward\nstocks and away from bonds. The opposite is true for rising long-term rates."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-264-266-how-interest-rates-affect-stock-prices-by-mark-c-snead-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-264-266-how-interest-rates-affect-stock-prices-by-mark-c-snead-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-264-266-how-interest-rates-affect-stock-prices-by-mark-c-snead-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-assetma-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (267-269): Asset Management Funds In Review by Charles Idol"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Asset Management Funds In Review\nby Charles Idol
Many small investors would be grateful for a service that adjusted their portfolio for diversification\nand modified the mix to meet the changing financial climate. While money management services have\nbeen available for such services, usually they required a substantial portfolio and charged a hefty fee.\nThese barriers were hurdled in 1989, when Vanguard and Fidelity, the giants of the mutual fund industry,\namong others, introduced money management funds. Enough time has passed to permit evaluation of\ntheir performance. How did they do?
Vanguard calls its money management fund the Asset Allocation Fund, while Fidelity refers to its fund as\nthe Asset Manager Fund. The funds are similar in more than name: each has a policy of diversification\namong stocks, bonds and cash reserves, and each has the objective of solving the difficult problem of\ntiming. The mix of the fund holdings is adjusted to maximize return and minimize risk by anticipating\nmarket conditions. Fidelity makes these decisions in-house, while Vanguard employs the Mellon Capital\nManagement Corporation as investment adviser for the fund.
Minimum initial investment is modest for each fund: Vanguard requires $3,000, and Fidelity $2,500.\nSubsequent investments may be as little as $100 or $200. Both funds offer automatic reinvestment of\ndistributions, and both are no load."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-267-269-asset-management-funds-in-review-by-charles-idol-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-267-269-asset-management-funds-in-review-by-charles-idol-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-267-269-asset-management-funds-in-review-by-charles-idol-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-cyclic-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (270-275): Computing Cyclic Entries by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Computing Cyclic Entries\nby John F. Ehlers
Knowing how to compute entry points for your trades exactly at price crests and valleys when the\nmarket is in the cyclic mode can be advantageous. In fact, the procedure can be adjusted to anticipate\nprice extremes so you can make your entry precisely at the extreme. Alternatively, the procedure can also\nbe adjusted to delay the signals slightly as insurance against whipsaws.
The market has several identifiable modes, among which are trends, seasonals, pure randomness and\nshort-term cycles. The procedure I am proposing is intended for use only when the market is in the cycle\nmode. Experience has shown me that cycles that can be used for trading exist only between 15% and\n30% of the time, and so, determining if the market is in the cyclic mode should be the first task. This can\nbe done with software such as MESA (which stands for \""maximum entropy spectrum analysis\""), or\nsimply by observing recent price history. After that, the procedure becomes simple: you only need to\nknow the length of the dominant cycle during recent price history. If you lack software to measure the\ncycle period, you can measure the length between successive lows or highs and interpolate the cycle\nlength between. these spot estimates."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-270-275-computing-cyclic-entries-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-270-275-computing-cyclic-entries-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-270-275-computing-cyclic-entries-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-predict-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (276-278): Predicting The Market With Unreliable Sources by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Predicting The Market With Unreliable Sources\nby Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Joe trades Standard & Poor's 500 contracts, and at the moment he is in a quandary. He looks at a chart\nof the market and wonders what he should do. The market looks as though it's in an uptrend. But perhaps\nit's gone as high as it's going to go, and it might be topping out. On the other hand, the pattern looks\nbullish. What will the market do? If it moves, will it be a strong enough move for Joe to make a major\nprofit?
The difference between luck and skill can be difficult to distinguish when it comes to market predictions,\nor, for that matter, any kind of prediction. Prediction is often based on one's theoretical understanding of\nthe relationship between world events and the role of \""luck.\"" (Luck, in my opinion, is simply a word that\nexplains chance occurrences. I prefer to think of it as an acronym for Laboring Under Constant\nKnowledge.) Many economists believe that the market is random. Yet if we had access to the number of\nbuyers and sellers in the market at one given instant and information about the conviction and capital\nbehind their trades, we would probably find the market to be very predictable."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-276-278-predicting-the-market-with-unreliable-sources-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-276-278-predicting-the-market-with-unreliable-sources-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-276-278-predicting-the-market-with-unreliable-sources-by-van-k-tharp-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-howaccu-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (279-280): How Accurate Is Sentiment? by William Lansburg"",""caption-linebreaks"":""How Accurate Is Sentiment?\nby William Lansburg
Of all the tools that technicians use in trying to predict the future of the stock market, one of the most\ncommon is the sentiment index. Basically, the theory behind the sentiment index holds that it is best to be\na contrarian. The theory states that whenever a high percentage of investment advisors are bullish, the\nmarket should decline, and when a high percentage of investment advisors are bearish, the market should\nmove up. Some say \""the high percentage\"" should be 60%, while others argue it should be lower, at 55%.
Let's examine the sentiment index to determine how reliable it was for the past nine years, from\nSeptember 18,1981, to February 9, 1991. I used the sentiment index-from Investor's Intelligence,\npublished in New Rochelle, NY, which tracks the opinions of 140 non-brokerage newsletters weekly\ndetailing the percentage of bulls versus bears. You can also find the percentage of bulls versus bears in\nBarron's each week."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-279-280-how-accurate-is-sentiment-by-william-lansburg-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-279-280-how-accurate-is-sentiment-by-william-lansburg-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-279-280-how-accurate-is-sentiment-by-william-lansburg-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-summer-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (281-282): The Summer Rally: Fact Or Fiction? by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Summer Rally: Fact Or Fiction?\nby Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
The \""summer rally\"" appears in some years and is completely absent in others. Does it deserve its\nname? I've consulted the record back to 1885 and find that there is a good case for a bullish bias in July\nand August, the summer rally season.
To test the theory, I divided the two months into six parts of approximately 10 days each. The years in\nwhich the market rose were counted in each 10 day period. The results are in Figure 1. The first 10-day\nperiod had the best record, rising in 69.5% of the years. That period includes the July 4th holiday; the day\nbefore the holiday has a very bullish record. The odds for this 10-day span favor a rally two-to-one.
The record for the other 10-day spans is good, but not startling. The market rose more often than declined\nin each period.
Some of this historical record is pretty ancient. Has there been any consistency through the years? To\ncheck, I divided the 106-year span into eight parts of approximately 13 years each, with the results\nsummarized in Figure 2. I considered a rally present if August 31 closed higher than June 30.
Some variation exists through the period, but no trend is evident. The odds were better than four-to-one\nin the 1924 to 1937 period, but the rally was absent in two thirds of the years between 1964 and 1977.\nOver the entire period, the odds were two-to-one that a summer rally would appear."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-281-282-the-summer-rally-fact-or-fiction-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-281-282-the-summer-rally-fact-or-fiction-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-281-282-the-summer-rally-fact-or-fiction-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-randoms-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (283-287): Random System, Loss Control? by Mark Harris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Random System, Loss Control?\nby Mark Harris
In his Settlement column in the January 1991 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES (\""Trading simply:\nMinimizing losses\""), Technical Editor John Sweeney says, \""I haven't tested a random set of rules yet, but\nI wouldn't be surprised if they worked given good loss control.\"" I thought it might be interesting to check\nout a very random system with a certain degree of loss control. I'm hedging on this a bit because the\nsystem I've set up literally only gives a degree of control over losses.
The basic idea of the system is as follows: On some randomly chosen day, we buy a contract on the\nStandard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) index. The price used will be the closing price. We will have in mind a\n\""stop\"" value, which will be some number of points (say x) below the closing price. Now if, at the\nfollowing day's close, the price is below our stop value, we will consider this a losing trade executed at\nthe close. On the other hand, if the price is up, we will hold and raise our stop so that it remains x points\nbelow the closing price. We will continue this process until, eventually, we are stopped out.
It is quite clear that we aren't going to control our losses to x points each trade. What we'd really like to\ndo is place an order specifying \""if the close is going to be below my stop, then (prior to the close) sell at\nmy stop.\"" Now that's the kind of order I would like to be able to enter, but so far no one's been interested\nin accepting it. I will return to this point a little further on when I discuss \""slippage\"".\nAfter a transaction is completed, we wait another random number of days and do it again."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-283-287-random-system-loss-control-by-mark-harris-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-283-287-random-system-loss-control-by-mark-harris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-283-287-random-system-loss-control-by-mark-harris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-dowtheo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (288-292): Dow Theory Confirmation And Divergence by Richard L. Evans"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dow Theory Confirmation And Divergence\nby Richard L. Evans
According to one of the most important tenets of the Dow theory, the Dow Jones Industrial and\nTransportation Averages must confirm each other to be able to derive forecasting significance from them.\nIn The Dow Theory, originally published in 1932, Dow theorist Robert Rhea states: \""The movements of\nboth the railroad and industrial stock averages should always be considered together. The movement of\none price average must be confirmed by the other before reliable inferences may be drawn. Conclusions\nbased upon the movement of one average, unconfirmed by the other, are almost certain to prove\nmisleading.\""
Intuitively, confirmation and divergence are acceptable as the bases of not only the Dow theory but of\nmuch of modern technical theory. However, there are questions to be answered regarding confirmation\nand other fundamentals of the Dow theory, as well as the critical question of interpretation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-288-292-dow-theory-confirmation-and-divergence-by-richard-l-evans-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-288-292-dow-theory-confirmation-and-divergence-by-richard-l-evans-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-288-292-dow-theory-confirmation-and-divergence-by-richard-l-evans-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-armson-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (293-297): Arms On Arms by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Arms On Arms by Thom Hartle
STOCKS & COMMODITIES readers may already be familiar with the work of Richard Arms, inventor of the\nArms index and Equivolume charting, author of many books, a 30-year veteran of the stock market and\ncontributor to STOCKS & COMMODITIES. Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Arms via telephone on April\n22,1991, about the importance of volume in analyzing the market, volume cyclicality and his methods of\nindividual stock selection.
\""If the market wore a wristwatch, it would be divided into shares, not hours.\"" — Richard Arms"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-arms-on-arms-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-arms-on-arms-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-arms-on-arms-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-sidebe-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (293-297): SIDEBAR: EASE OF MOVEMENT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""EASE OF MOVEMENT
This indicator is an oscillator designed to reveal the direction that a stock or commodity is moving with\nthe least amount of resistance.
First, calculate the midpoint movement (MPM):"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-sidebar-ease-of-movement-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-sidebar-ease-of-movement-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-sidebar-ease-of-movement-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-sidebeq-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (293-297): SIDEBAR: EQUIVOLUME CHARTING"",""caption-linebreaks"":""EQUIVOLUME CHARTING
Equivolume charting is a method of charting developed by Richard Arms based on the principle that the\nmarket is a function of volume, not time, and so gives more emphasis to volume than traditional bar\ncharts. Equivolume charts put volume rather than time on the horizontal axis and depict each day as a\nbox. The bottom and top of the box represent the low and high for the day, while the width is the volume\nof shares or contracts traded during that day. The shape of the box generated is thus a visual\nrepresentation of the relationship between price range and volume. Tall, thin rectangles represent large\nmovement on comparatively light volume, while short wide boxes represent small price movement\ncompared to the volume. —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-sidebar-equivolume-charting-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-sidebar-equivolume-charting-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-sidebar-equivolume-charting-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-sideba-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (293-297): SIDEBAR: THE ARMS INDEX"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE ARMS INDEX
The Arms index, also known as TRIN or Trader's Index, was developed by Richard Arms in 1967 to\nindicate when abnormally high volume is accompanying either advancing or declining stocks. The index\nis based on the assumption that volume tends to swing in the direction of market sentiment. If we are in a\nbullish atmosphere, volume will tend to be proportionately higher in the stocks that are going up. If the\nbears are in control, the volume will tend to be proportionately heavier in those stocks that are declining.
The formula is a ratio of two ratios:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-sidebar-the-arms-index-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-sidebar-the-arms-index-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-293-297-sidebar-the-arms-index-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c07-whatisa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:7 (298-300): What Is A Trend, Anyway? by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""What Is A Trend, Anyway?\nby John Sweeney
A reader reacting to the Settlement article in January on trading basics (Settlement, \""Trading simply:\nMinimizing losses,\"" Stocks & COMMODITIES, January 1991) asked a key question: What is a trend? How\ndo I identify it when I'm trading? (Personally, I use dual moving averages.) Most of us could think of a\nnumber of ways of defining trends, but it fascinates me what our analytical methods tell us about our own\nthinking. Typically, our thought of \""trend\"" amounts to no more than drawing lines upward or downward.\nI think it should also encompass drawing them horizontally.
The trend is our friend, we think, because that's when price changes occur in some unidentified, regular\nprogression upon which event we make money. Questioning the key elements — persistent movement\nover time — by looking at charts, it's evident that tradeables can move smoothly, like the Eurodollars in\nFigure 1 or Treasury bills (Fed managed), or abruptly, like, say, gold, which is notorious for opening $20\naway from where it's been for the last six weeks (Figure 2).
My conclusion? Trending behavior varies by tradeable and is more apparent in \""managed\"" prices (such as\nspecialist supported stocks and short-term interest rates) or markets of mammoth size where the sheer\nnumber of participants precludes truly abrupt change — say, debt and currencies. Despite this, we look\nfor (hope for?) a straight line progression of prices from one level to another, hence the urge to draw\nstraight lines on all charts of fluctuating prices.
By drawing straight lines, are we really trying to model this variegated behavior or just expressing our\nown preconceptions and, thus, limitations of thought? Prices do exhibit persistence (that is, statistical\ndependence): they usually open \""around\"" where they closed and the next price is \""around\"" where the last\nprice was. However, even if that phenomenon justifies describing that behavior with a single line, I can't\nthink of a reason for it to be straight. Though straight lines can be powerful analytical tools (Figure 3),\nour strong preference for them is foremost our own wishful thinking."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-298-300-what-is-a-trend-anyway-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-298-300-what-is-a-trend-anyway-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-7-298-300-what-is-a-trend-anyway-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-hybrid-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (303-309): A Hybrid System For Market Timing by Mark B. Fishman and Dean S. Barr"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Hybrid System For Market Timing by Mark B. Fishman and Dean S. Barr
Hybrid technologies are perhaps the most-investigated topic in artificial intelligence today and here's how to apply the subject to trading.
In two recent articles in STOCKS & COMMODITIES, we have demonstrated the application of advanced\nartificial intelligence technologies to the problem of market forecasting. That artificial intelligence works\nat all in predicting market movements compels us to rethink the absolutist position that markets are\nalways random. What the evidence more plausibly suggests is that Standard & Poor's 500 index\nfluctuations are chaotic and their randomness is real—but it is intermittent. Between the periods of\nchaos, intervals of discernible non-randomness occur, and in principle, these are predictable, making\nmarket behavior recognizable often enough to be exploited (and making the periods of randomness\nidentifiable, so that no adverse effects need accrue from decisions made on the basis of non-meaningful\nperturbations).
What in the past has led us down the paths of doubt and disbelief (at least, those of us not analytically\ncrippled by incurable optimism) has been a fault, not in ourselves, but in our software. \""Nonlinear\ndynamic systems\"" (which is what markets are, mathematically speaking) simply do not happily succumb\nto analysis by classical statistical techniques. This is not to say that they can't be analyzed. The new\narsenal of analytical weaponry that artificial intelligence technology has introduced may stand to break\nthrough that irksome harrier of complexity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-303-309-a-hybrid-system-for-market-timing-by-mark-b-fishman-and-dean-s-barr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-303-309-a-hybrid-system-for-market-timing-by-mark-b-fishman-and-dean-s-barr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-303-309-a-hybrid-system-for-market-timing-by-mark-b-fishman-and-dean-s-barr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-sidebr-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (303-309): SIDEBAR: RULE PROCESS GENERATION by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""RULE PROCESS GENERATION by Technical Analysis, Inc.
To illustrate how this process of rule generation works, suppose that the exponential moving average,\ntaken together with the computed direction of the market and today's Standard & Poor's, represents a\npotent combination to produce a decision to buy or to sell under trending market conditions (the decision\nof which will depend, of course, on the absolute numerical values of those indicators today and yesterday,\nand their relative values compared with each other). Two rules, then (actually used in our system), may\nsemi-automatically be induced."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-303-309-sidebar-rule-process-generation-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-303-309-sidebar-rule-process-generation-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-303-309-sidebar-rule-process-generation-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-sidebc-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (310-315): SIDEBAR: A COMPOSITE INDICATOR by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""A COMPOSITE INDICATOR by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Interview subject Tim Hayes suggests a modified version of the composite indicator using just three indicators.
You refer to your composite indicator that is made up of subgroups. Can you tell our readers about\none or two indicators from each subgroup?
A lot of data and a lot of indicators go into our models. They're very, very broad, and there's too much in\nthere for an individual to try to update without a computer. So what you could do is put a model together\nwith just these three indicators, you take the same approach toward timing the market. Three indicators\nwould be, say, a Value Line slope indicator based on the 30-week momentum of the Value Line\ncomposite (Figure 1). We found that if the Value Line momentum goes below -1%, turns around and\nmoves above that, that's a buy. If the Value Line momentum goes above 16%, peaks out and turns down,\nthat's a sell signal. Now that's a simple indicator that an individual can update simply by entering every\nday what the Value Line is and calculate the 30-week momentum."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-310-315-sidebar-a-composite-indicator-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-310-315-sidebar-a-composite-indicator-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-310-315-sidebar-a-composite-indicator-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-hayes-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (310-315): Tim Hayes: Running With The Trend by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tim Hayes: Running With The Trend by Thom Hartle
Ned Davis Research strategist Tim Hayes spoke with S&C about the firm's approach and emphasis on models and trend-sensitive indicators.
Ned Davis Research uses a three-part market model, among others. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom\nHartle interviewed Hayes via telephone on May 23, 1991, and spoke with him about Ned Davis\nResearch's risk-averse approach as well as the firm's emphasis on models, trend-sensitive indicators and\na monetary approach."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-310-315-tim-hayes-running-with-the-trend-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-310-315-tim-hayes-running-with-the-trend-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-310-315-tim-hayes-running-with-the-trend-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-candles-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (316-319): Candlesticks And Stochastics by Greg Morris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Candlesticks And Stochastics by Greg Morris
Is it all hype and no substance, this candlestick business? This author says not. Here's a closer look.
Japanese candlesticks have added a new and exciting dimension to technical analysis. They offer\nnothing that is not available in standard high-low bar charts as far as actual data displayed are concerned.\nWhen it comes to visual appeal and the ability to see data relationships better, however, candlesticks are\nexceptional. Coupled with a few popular indicators, candlesticks become even more powerful. After a\nlittle practice and familiarization, candlesticks will become part of your analysis arsenal. You may never\nreturn to standard bar charts.
TO REFRESH YOUR MEMORY
A candlestick line uses the same data that bar charts use: open, high, low and close. The thick part is\ncalled the body and represents the range between the open and the close. If the body is white (not filled\nin), it means the close was higher than the open. If the body is black (filled in), it means the close was\nlower than the open. The thin lines above and below the body are called shadows. Shadows represent the\nhigh and low of the day's trading range."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-316-319-candlesticks-and-stochastics-by-greg-morris-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-316-319-candlesticks-and-stochastics-by-greg-morris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-316-319-candlesticks-and-stochastics-by-greg-morris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-sidebpa-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (316-319): SIDEBAR: PATTERN EXPLICATIONS by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""PATTERN EXPLICATIONS by Technical Analysis, Inc.
In Figure 1, the first pattern shown (A), called \""meeting lines,\"" is a gap opening and an unchanged close.\nThis pattern indicates that the market direction is unclear or it is the conclusion of a trend. With the %D\nabove 80 at the time of this pattern, a potential reversal is indicated. The second pattern is a \""hammer\""\n(B). Hammers have a small real body with a long lower shadow with a small or no upper shadow. This\npattern indicates a bottom as the market is hammering out a base. This particular time the pattern was\nearly, but with the %D below 20 the warning of a reversal was accurate. The \""shooting star\"" (C) has a\nsmall body near the lows, short lower shadow and a long upper shadow. This pattern is bearish in an\nuptrend. The shooting star with the %D over 80 was a good call. The last formation shown is the meeting\nlines (D). The %D below 20 and the meeting lines pattern signaled another change in the trend."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-316-319-sidebar-pattern-explications-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-316-319-sidebar-pattern-explications-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-316-319-sidebar-pattern-explications-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-sidebpo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (320-322): SIDEBAR: POINT & FIGURE TECHNIQUE by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""POINT & FIGURE TECHNIQUE by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Explanation of point and figure charting, which is similar to bar charting except that price reversals below a minimum size are eliminated, and time is not a factor. This is one of the simplest methods for following markets.
Point and figure charting is a technical trading approach that has been credited to Charles Dow, originator\nof the Dow theory. This technique differs from bar charting in that price reversals below a minimum size\nare eliminated and time is not a factor (it may be listed as only a frame of reference). Any market or\nindicator can be plotted using this technique; we use a stock for our example."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-320-322-sidebar-point-figure-technique-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-320-322-sidebar-point-figure-technique-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-320-322-sidebar-point-figure-technique-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-willrog-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (320-322): The Will Rogers Theory Of Point & Figure Trading by J. Adam Hewison"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Will Rogers Theory Of Point & Figure Trading by J. Adam Hewison
When I first started trading, moving averages were pretty much the epitome of high-tech computer\nanalysis. Since then, we have seen the birth of computerized studies for Gann, Fibonacci, stochastics,\noscillators, overbought and oversold indicators and many, many others. While all these studies have\ncontributed to the advancement of technical analysis, the surfeit of studies to examine have served more\nto confuse the individual than to clarify market direction. A case in point: I recently had a conversation\nwith a colleague who spoke of an investor who uses more than 100 indicators, including Gann and\nElliott, to track the market. This particular investor is so busy tracking his 100 indicators, he has yet to\nmake a trade. Too much information can freeze an investor into indecision."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-320-322-the-will-rogers-theory-of-point-figure-trading-by-j-adam-hewison-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-320-322-the-will-rogers-theory-of-point-figure-trading-by-j-adam-hewison-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-320-322-the-will-rogers-theory-of-point-figure-trading-by-j-adam-hewison-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-pricedi-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (323-324): Price/Dividends Ratio Revisited by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price/Dividends Ratio Revisited by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
In 1988 Merrill showed that the price/dividends ratio was useful in calling the 1987 crash. What's the outlook today?
In the October 1988 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I described the usefulness of the ratio of price to\ndividends in calling the 1987 crash. It shouted warnings. What is the situation today? To review, Figure 1\nis the long-term chart of the ratio, after filtering out all swings of the Dow Jones Industrial Average\n(DJIA) of less than 20%. Figure 2 brings the data up to date and includes a 10-year history. It's a quarterly\nchart.
The index is the number of dollars required to buy enough DJIA stocks to yield $1.00 of dividends. It's\nthe inverse of the yield. The ratio corrects for inflation. Both the numerator (price) and the denominator\n(volume) are expressed in dollars, so the dollar value cancels out."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-323-324-price-dividends-ratio-revisited-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-323-324-price-dividends-ratio-revisited-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-323-324-price-dividends-ratio-revisited-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-common-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (325-327): The Common (But Useful) RSI by Herbert S. Hall, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Common (But Useful) RSI by Herbert S. Hall, C.M.T.
The relative strength index (RSI) is one of today's most popular indicators and is available in virtually\nevery technical analysis software package sold. While the RSI indicator has become so common that\nsome would-be users feel it has lost its effectiveness, calculating changes in RSI values clearly would\ngive the user an advantage over those who calculate it with corresponding price levels only after the\nclose. To do so, take a detailed look at how the RSI is calculated, how to determine appropriate values for\nit and, finally, how to use it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-325-327-the-common-but-useful-rsi-by-herbert-s-hall-c-m-t-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-325-327-the-common-but-useful-rsi-by-herbert-s-hall-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-325-327-the-common-but-useful-rsi-by-herbert-s-hall-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-selecti-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (328-333): Selecting And Interpreting Leading Indicators by Roger Pilloton"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Selecting And Interpreting Leading Indicators by Roger Pilloton
Adjusting for the weaknesses of leading indicators so that you are able to select, interpret, and check their reliability.
Leading indicators play a major role in economic and stock market forecasts. For example, the index of\nleading indicators calculated by the U.S. Department of Commerce is widely published every month. It is\nclosely studied by economic professionals. It influences, directly or indirectly, the actions of millions in\nmany fields, including politics, business and finance. It is closely watched because the peaks and valleys\nof its curve often precede those of the U.S. economy by several months. The index, theoretically,\nforecasts the starts and ends of recessions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-328-333-selecting-and-interpreting-leading-indicators-by-roger-pilloton-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-328-333-selecting-and-interpreting-leading-indicators-by-roger-pilloton-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-328-333-selecting-and-interpreting-leading-indicators-by-roger-pilloton-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-mktvane-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (334-335): Market Vane Transformations by Kenneth L. Kinkopf Jr."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Vane Transformations by Kenneth L. Kinkopf Jr.
The sentiment readings of the Market Vane service is a poll taken daily from futures trading advisors indicating the percentage that are bullish at that moment. Ironically, market consensus is used as a contrarian indicator. Does it work? This author transforms the Market Vane index into a better indicator.
Market consensus is a dynamic indicator with which to evaluate market activity. Ironically, however,\nthis tool is used as a contrarian indicator. The sentiment readings of the Market Vane service is a poll\ntaken daily from futures trading advisors indicating the percentage that are bullish at that moment. As a\nrule, high readings are signs of market tops, while low readings are signs of market bottoms. Barron's\npublishes this poll weekly under \""Investor Sentiment Readings.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-334-335-market-vane-transformations-by-kenneth-l-kinkopf-jr-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-334-335-market-vane-transformations-by-kenneth-l-kinkopf-jr-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-334-335-market-vane-transformations-by-kenneth-l-kinkopf-jr-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-swingch-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (336-337): Swing Charts by J.R. Davis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Swing Charts by J.R. Davis
A profitable trade has two dimensions: time and space (which, for our purposes, will be known as\nprice change). A trade that occurs in a few seconds is extremely difficult to cash in unless you are directly\non the floor. On the other hand, a trade that lasts for several weeks or months gives traders and investors\na chance to profit. The swing charting technique unites time and space to find profits.
Swing charts offer (at least) three ways to improve your balance sheet. They are unequaled in providing\nboth entry timing and direction after a market has become congested. Swing charts are also very good at\nfinding functional support and resistance levels. Finally, they provide a very good stop-loss of \""last\nresort.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-336-337-swing-charts-by-j-r-davis-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-336-337-swing-charts-by-j-r-davis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-336-337-swing-charts-by-j-r-davis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-sidebo-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (338-340): SIDEBAR: THE OPTION DELTA by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE OPTION DELTA by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Simply stated, the delta of an option is the amount by which the option will increase or decrease in price\nif the underlying instrument moves by 1 point. The deltas of call options have positive values, while\nthose of put options have negative values. The delta of a call option will be close to 1, or 100%, if the\nunderlying instrument is trading well above the strike price of the option. If the underlying instrument is\ntrading well below the strike price of the call, the delta will be nearly zero."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-338-340-sidebar-the-option-delta-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-338-340-sidebar-the-option-delta-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-338-340-sidebar-the-option-delta-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-options-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (338-340): Using Options In Risk Management by Robert J. Hamilton"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Using Options In Risk Management by Robert J. Hamilton
Before options were available, the primary vehicle used for risk management was the stop-loss order. Stop-loss orders allow a certain degree of risk management, but they don't allow the user to absolutely define the amount of risk. Nowadays, put and call options can be utilized to define and implement risk management. Learn these basic risk-management strategies using options.
In the past, when futures and securities were traded before options were available, the primary vehicle\nwith which to manage risk was the stop-loss order. Stop-loss orders allow sell orders to be placed below\nthe current market price and buy orders to be placed above the market price and are triggered only when\nthe market hits the designated price. When activated, the stop-loss order becomes a market order subject\nto all the idiosyncrasies of the market. The nature of the stop-loss order allows a certain degree of risk\nmanagement, but it does not allow the user to absolutely define the amount of risk."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-338-340-using-options-in-risk-management-by-robert-j-hamilton-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-338-340-using-options-in-risk-management-by-robert-j-hamilton-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-338-340-using-options-in-risk-management-by-robert-j-hamilton-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-choosin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (341-343): Choosing A Time Bar Length In Intraday Trading by Cynthia Kase"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Choosing A Time Bar Length In Intraday Trading by Cynthia Kase
Most intraday technical traders use charts based on hours or fractions of an hour. Most trading days, however, don't divide evenly into hours or conventional time fractions such as 30 or 45 minutes. Here are some suggestions from an intraday trader on how to handle bar lengths.
For periods longer than about 15 minutes, I suggest one of two methods: Either divide the number of\nminutes in a day into same-length bars, or divide the day into bar lengths such that the leftover bars cover\nthe last five to 10 minutes of the day, thus giving the indicators a heavier weighting of the closing time\nperiod. You will need software that provides intraday charts in a variable-minute format."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-341-343-choosing-a-time-bar-length-in-intraday-trading-by-cynthia-kase-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-341-343-choosing-a-time-bar-length-in-intraday-trading-by-cynthia-kase-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-341-343-choosing-a-time-bar-length-in-intraday-trading-by-cynthia-kase-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c08-babybul-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:8 (344-345): The Baby Bulge Begins by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Baby Bulge Begins by John Sweeney
Our Technical Editor opines about the demographic effect the baby boomer generation is having on the stock market.
Is 38% of the value in the market unaccountable? What could explain such a discrepancy? Goldman,\nSachs & Co. limited partner Barrie Wigmore (The Wall Street Journal , June 5, 1991) picked apart the\nmarket's advances in the 1980s but found that interest rates, higher earnings and \""overly optimistic\nearnings estimates\"" couldn't account for more than 62% of the gains in that decade. Wigmore and\neconomic luminary Robert Shiller (of Yale University) both professed that they were puzzled:\n\""Something else was driving the market. It's something intangible.\""
Actually, it's the opening bars of the demographic effect. The baby boom is entering the investment age,\nwith all the qualities necessary to drive the markets higher: money, inexperience and hubris. The recently\nheralded \""return of the small investor\""? It's chickens to the plucking. (This time, they rationalize, they're\ngoing to be smart, use mutual funds and be protected by professional advice. Dream on.)"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-344-345-the-baby-bulge-begins-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-344-345-the-baby-bulge-begins-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-8-344-345-the-baby-bulge-begins-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c09-timeser-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:9 (347-352): Time Series Forecasting: ARMAX by Thomas H. Lincoln"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Time Series Forecasting: ARMAX by Thomas H. Lincoln
As an avid reader of stock market books and newspapers, I have observed the overwhelming number\nof graphic illustrations of economic and market indicators. Oftentimes some indicators are contradicted\nby others and leave the future direction of the market probable, but not always quantitatively definite.\nDetermined to make a useful forecast from the many graphs and indicators, I have combined a multiple\nregression model of several economic indicators and related market indicators with the autoregressive\nmoving average (ARMA) models of Box-Jenkins to forecast the Standard & Poor's 500 cash index six\nmonths ahead. The final model, often called ARMAX (autoregressive moving average exogenous variables\nmodel), provides a fundamental and technical time series approach to market forecasting.
There are clear and definite steps involved in building an ARMAX forecasting model, which we will\ndiscuss here, and I can also provide a sample model with good regression statistics and good forecasting\nstatistics. The economic and stock data were retrieved from the two public domain Federal Reserve\nbulletin boards. The indicators I used are noted in Figure 1."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-347-352-time-series-forecasting-armax-by-thomas-h-lincoln-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-347-352-time-series-forecasting-armax-by-thomas-h-lincoln-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-347-352-time-series-forecasting-armax-by-thomas-h-lincoln-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c09-shobin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:9 (354-360): Steve Shobin Of Merrill Lynch by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Steve Shobin Of Merrill Lynch by Thom Hartle
I'd first like to start off with some information about your background and how you first became\ninterested in technical analysis.
I graduated from the University of Pittsburgh in 1966 as an English literature major; became a cab driver\nand a social worker and thought that there had to be a better way of making a living. So I joined Merrill\nLynch in 1967.\nI had always had an avocational interest in the stock market but never thought of using technical analysis.\nThen a gentleman named Mr. Berer from Pittsburgh introduced me to Chart Craft's three-point reversal\ntechnique, and I have been a technical person since.
Did you move from straight point and figure to a number of different techniques?
You were almost forced to as a member of Bob Farrell's department. You really have to learn a vast\nspectrum of techniques; granted, there weren't as many back in 1967-68 as there are now, but to be a\ncomplete technician, you had to learn more than just point and figure. So once we were on the job we\nwere introduced to indicators, bar charting and other techniques as well."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-354-360-steve-shobin-of-merrill-lynch-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-354-360-steve-shobin-of-merrill-lynch-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-354-360-steve-shobin-of-merrill-lynch-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c09-nonline-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:9 (361-365): Nonlinearity, Chaos Theory and the DJIA by Victor E. Krynicki, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Nonlinearity, Chaos Theory and the DJIA by Victor E. Krynicki, Ph.D.
Here's a fresh look on using nonlinear systems and chaos theory to understand the markets.
Concepts deriving from nonlinear systems and chaos theory have begun to be applied to understand\nstock market behavior. In a STOCKS & COMMODITIES article, Hans Hannula presented an attempt to apply\nthe concept of the strange attractor to major price swings, pointing out that stock market behavior evinces\nboth linear and nonlinear domains.
Within a linear domain of the stock market, a proportional relationship controls price moves, since input\nforce is proportional to output force in a linear system. But movement out of linear domains — where\ninput and output no longer relate in a direct, predictable manner—frequently occurs, with\nnon-proportional relationships then being evident. An extreme example occurred in the months and\nweeks leading up to October 13, 1989 (Figure 1). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) moved\nupward in a linear channel, gradually carving successively higher highs and higher lows; it then moved\ninto a horizontal range shortly before October 13. On October 13, this uptrend's boundaries were not only\nbroken, but prices also did not fall in a linear manner. Rather, DJIA prices behaved like a rubber band that\nhad suddenly snapped, leading to abrupt and extreme changes in other market averages."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-361-365-nonlinearity-chaos-theory-and-the-djia-by-victor-e-krynicki-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-361-365-nonlinearity-chaos-theory-and-the-djia-by-victor-e-krynicki-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-361-365-nonlinearity-chaos-theory-and-the-djia-by-victor-e-krynicki-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c09-guideli-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:9 (366-371): Guidelines With Support And Resistance by Richard L. Evans"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Guidelines With Support And Resistance by Richard L. Evans
Given the explosive growth of the financial markets, with all the derivative products and the increased\ncomplexity of trading strategies, all aided by the evolution of computers, some exotic forms of technical\nanalysis have emerged. A perusal of some of the recent features of STOCKS & COMMODITIES is enough to\noverwhelm many an average investor. However, one of the oldest forms of technical analysis, support\nand resistance, can still put the individual investor on the same playing field with the institutional\ninvestor when it involves old-fashioned stock picking. The rules are as effective today as they ever have\nbeen.
Support and resistance can generally be equated with demand/supply. Support is where enough demand is\nforthcoming to either stop a decline in a stock and/or start an advance; resistance is when enough supply\nenters the market to cause the stock to either stop rising and/or start falling. This definition may not seem\ntoo profound, but it shouldn't be; support and resistance is not an exotic technical theory, but one based\non day-to-day trading itself, the nuts and bolts of market activity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-366-371-guidelines-with-support-and-resistance-by-richard-l-evans-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-366-371-guidelines-with-support-and-resistance-by-richard-l-evans-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-366-371-guidelines-with-support-and-resistance-by-richard-l-evans-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c09-priceea-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:9 (372-373): Price/Earnings Ratios by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Price/Earnings Ratios by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
Here's a look at an old fundamental analysis favorite and what it can do for the technical analyst.
For many years I have monitored the performance of a group of 30 to 50 stocks that have been\nexhibiting rapid and consistent growth in earnings per share. They are true growth stocks, with growth\nrates averaging an increase in earnings per share of more than 20% per year. To qualify for the list, the\nstock must be listed on the New York Stock Exchange and must have increased its earnings per share in\neach of the past five years. When earnings falter, the stock is removed from the list. The number in the\ngroup varies between 30 and 50 because as poor earnings reports come in on stocks in the group, those\nstocks are eliminated; when the group has been pared down close to 30, new stocks are introduced into\nthe mix until the group numbers about 50 again.
I've checked the average price/earnings ratio (P/E), a geometric average, of this list for its predictive\nvalue and find that in the past five years it has had an excellent record in forecasting market direction for\nthe next 13, 26 and 52 weeks. The method used for testing was described in the May STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-372-373-price-earnings-ratios-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-372-373-price-earnings-ratios-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-372-373-price-earnings-ratios-by-arthur-a-merrill-c-m-t-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c09-startin-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:9 (374-377): Starting A Technical Analysis Group by Barbara Star, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Starting A Technical Analysis Group by Barbara Star, Ph.D.
While the perfect trading system may be elusive, sharing information with others is very attainable. One way to do so is to become part of a technical analysis group.
Technical analysts constantly search for the knowledge that could propel them to the realm of the truly\ngreat (or, at least, the consistently good) trader. Part of the search includes the desire to compare notes\nand experiences with other traders. While the perfect trading system may remain elusive, sharing\ninformation with others is a very attainable goal. One of the best ways to accomplish this is to become\npart of a technical analysis group.
Basically, a technical analysis group combines a support group for sharing experiences and ideas related\nto trading and an educational group with which to learn about the various technical tools, indicators and\nmoney management skills that can enhance trading performance. Many group types fall under the rubric\nof technical analysis and include study groups, financial software user groups, and regional or national\norganizations. If a technical analysis group does not exist in your area, then why not start one of your\nown?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-374-377-starting-a-technical-analysis-group-by-barbara-star-ph-d-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-374-377-starting-a-technical-analysis-group-by-barbara-star-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-374-377-starting-a-technical-analysis-group-by-barbara-star-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c09-pattern-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:9 (378-382): Pattern Recognition And Candlesticks by Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Pattern Recognition And Candlesticks by Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny
Here's a look at the new order of artificial intelligence linked with the old order of candlestick charting
By now, who hasn't heard of the Japanese form of charting called candlesticks? Until Steve Nison\nintroduced candlestick charting to the West a few years ago, charting services or software programs that\noffered graphically displayed data in candlestick format were few and far between. Finding a guidebook\nor manual on interpretations of candlesticks and their patterns was almost unattainable unless one could\nread Japanese.
Since then, there has been a stampede for chart services to offer traders the ability to chart data in\ncandlestick format. There has also been a groundswell of interest to learn about this form of technical\nanalysis. But the question is obvious. Why has there been so much curiosity about candlesticks? Why are\nmany Western technicians and professional traders incorporating candlesticks into their trading systems?\nHow useful are candlesticks?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-378-382-pattern-recognition-and-candlesticks-by-gary-s-wagner-and-bradley-l-matheny-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-378-382-pattern-recognition-and-candlesticks-by-gary-s-wagner-and-bradley-l-matheny-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-378-382-pattern-recognition-and-candlesticks-by-gary-s-wagner-and-bradley-l-matheny-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c09-regress-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:9 (383-386): A Regression-Based Oscillator by Patrick E. Lafferty"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Regression-Based Oscillator by Patrick E. Lafferty
Editor's note: Mr. Lafferty originally submitted this article as an entry to the June Traders' Challenge\ncontest. We decided to run it as a separate article because the idea that Mr. Lafferty presented in his\nentry intrigued me and we thought that STOCKS & COMMODITIES readers would similarly be interested in\nhis techniques.
Although my primary interest in trading is in stock index options, after reading the June STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES interview with John Murphy, I realized that my stock index analyses could benefit from\nbetter understanding the behavior of other markets, including gold futures. The June Traders' Challenge\nlooked like a good opportunity to become more familiar with the gold futures market. So I decided to\ngive it a shot.
My analysis consists of three parts: an assessment of long-term support and resistance levels, based on\ngold futures data from the past four years; an analysis of recent data in terms of support and resistance\nlevels, trends and cyclic characteristics; and a mathematical determination of the underlying trend for the\nlast three months, formulation of a trading model and identification of near-term trading opportunities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-383-386-a-regression-based-oscillator-by-patrick-e-lafferty-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-383-386-a-regression-based-oscillator-by-patrick-e-lafferty-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-383-386-a-regression-based-oscillator-by-patrick-e-lafferty-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v09-c09-quantif-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-9-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V.9:9 (387-389): Quantifying The Tried And True by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quantifying The Tried And True by John Sweeney
Some people think that my use of numbers indicates a lack of respect for traditional charting\ntechniques. Quite the opposite is true. I've found over the years that what I've come up with generally\nconfirms many of the tried-and-true trading axioms and charting techniques, only I've been able to put\nnumbers to many of them which before were unquantified advice.
A good example is the work on maximum adverse excursion (MAE) (STOCKS & COMMODITIES, October\n1985, and S&C, January 1991), which advised you to focus on minimizing losses in order to be around\nfor the winners. MAE measures how much good and bad trades go against you, and it turns out this is a\ngood indicator of what is likely to be a good trade and what is likely to be a bad trade. In other words, just\nby noting the amount of price movement against you, you can determine whether to hold the position or\nstop out."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-387-389-quantifying-the-tried-and-true-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-387-389-quantifying-the-tried-and-true-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v-9-9-387-389-quantifying-the-tried-and-true-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1422sidcalk,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-10-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V10.10 (422): Sidebar: Calculating the KST by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Calculating the KST by Technical Analysis, Inc.
The suggested parameters for short,\nintermediate and long term can be\nfound in sidebar Figure 1. There\nare three steps to calculating the\nKST indicator. First, calculate the\nfour different rates of change."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v10-10-422-sidebar-calculating-the-kst-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v10-10-422-sidebar-calculating-the-kst-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v10-10-422-sidebar-calculating-the-kst-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1331tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (316-318): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13 (316-318): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc.
EQUIS METASTOCK FOR WINDOWS
The projection bands and other indicators discussed in \""Signaling change with projection bands\"" can easily be\nimplemented in MetaStock for Windows. To create these indicators, enter the following custom indicators in the indicator builder:
Slope of high (14 period regression line of High):
((14 * (Sum( Cum(1) * HIGH, 14))) - (Sum( Cum(1), 14) *\n( Sum(HIGH, 14)))) /
((14 * Sum( Pwr( Cum(1), 2), 14)) - Pwr( Sum( Cum(1), 14), 2))\n..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-316-318-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-316-318-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-316-318-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1331lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (319-320): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13 (319-320): Letters to S&C
STOCKBROKER TRAINING
Editor,
I am a 21-year-old student and worker who is very interested in becoming a stockbroker or trader. For some time now, I have been trying to self-educate myself with the small amount of literature available on these subjects through local bookstores and libraries. This route has only proven to be frustrating and has not given me the informational base that I desire to enter either job market.
I would very much appreciate it if you could point me in the right direction as to what schools, programs or other institutions would provide continued education and qualify me to be proficient in either field.
DAVID D. TENPAS\nSheboygan, WI
Aside from entering a training program with a stock brokerage firm, a few other avenues might include the\nfollowing:Several universities in New York City offer an assortment of finance courses and programs, including Pace University, New York University and the New York Institute of Finance [see also next letter-Ed.], among others. Contact any of these schools for a course listing.
For information on how to obtain a stock brokerage license, you might contact the Securities & Exchange\nCommission (SEC): ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-319-320-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-319-320-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-319-320-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1355lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (55): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
This month's letters include queries into fast Fourier\ntransforms (FFTs), information on where to get historical data and data downloading services, the futures liquidity column, candlestick formations, and portfolio management."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-55-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-55-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-55-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1355prodrev,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (555-556): Product Review: Neural Works Predict for Windows, v.1.0 by S. Jack Karczewskiby"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NeuralWorks Predict For Windows - By S. Jack Karczewski
NeuralWorks Predicts, a neural networks package, is a useful program for those\nwho want to learn about building neural nets.
N euralWorks Predict is a neural networks package that works within a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet to build predictive models. Predict runs in 32-bit Windows NT mode, and developer NeuralWare includes the Microsoft\nWin32s diskette to upgrade your Windows program to run Predict in Excel. Documentation was complete, and\ninstallation went smoothly and without problems. Once you've installed Win32s and Predict, you can start Excel and\nPredict will be included in the menu bar (Figure 1).
While Predict's manual advises that a 386 central processing unit (CPU) can be used to run the program, I would\nrecommend a 486, as I used a Pentium 66 MHz and I would think the software would run painfully slowly on\nanything less than a 486. As an example, I had the opportunity to run the program on a 486/33 computer and it\nrequired 10 minutes to run the same routine that on the Pentium took only about two. First lesson: Use the most\npowerful machine available to you."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-555-556-product-review-neural-works-predict-for-windows-v-1-0-by-s-jack-karczewskiby-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-555-556-product-review-neural-works-predict-for-windows-v-1-0-by-s-jack-karczewskiby-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-555-556-product-review-neural-works-predict-for-windows-v-1-0-by-s-jack-karczewskiby-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1357prtimto,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (575-576): PR: Time to Trade By John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Time To Trade - By John Sweeney
Time to Trade is a complete technical analysis program that works automatically and interactively.
North Systems, home of software developer Norm North, began in 1982 as N 2 Computing at the very dawn of\ncomputerized trading. With then-partner Greg Morris, North produced a steady stream of DOS programs (Market\nAnalyzer, Stock Analyzer, Futures Analyzer) dedicated to charting, indicators, creating your own indicators via a\nformulary, and even integrating fundamental data into the process. Since then, North Systems has not stood still,\nfirst with the introduction of CandlePower, pattern recognition charting that incorporates volume into the candlestick\ndesign, which is now in its fourth edition (and maybe fifth, by the time you read this). Its ability to form a trading\nopinion based on candlestick patterns has won a following among techies.
Most recently, North has introduced Time to Trade (TTT), a complete technical analysis program that works\nautomatically and interactively. It analyzes stocks, indices, commodities and mutual funds. The main purpose of the\nprogram is to automatically scan through your database to find those issues that are likely to change their current\nprice trend. This process uses the Insync index, a consensus indicator that was described in the January 1995\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES. The Insync uses a summation of 10 different components, ranging from Lambert's\ncommodity channel index, relative strength indicator (RSI) and money flow index to moving average\nconvergence/divergence, among others. Insync, in its most effective mode, generates an entry signal once it reverses\ncourse (Figure 1). From that point on, you're on your own. Trade management and exiting are not covered in TTT;\nonly the indicator is shown for entry purposes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-575-576-pr-time-to-trade-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-575-576-pr-time-to-trade-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-575-576-pr-time-to-trade-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1357pruseqo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (577-578): PR: U.S. Equity OnFloppy, v.4.0 - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""U.S. Equities OnFloppy Version 4.0 - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Analysts want to apply their ideas to a universe of stocks to find trading\npossibilities. That creates a market for those who can supply software to find\ngems, such as U.S. Equities OnFloppy.
S orting, ranking, screening, scoring - what's the deal here? The answer: As analytical capacity and productivity\nhave grown, there needs to be more tradables fed into the maw of the number-crunchers and more opportunities to\ndiscover some unappreciated value. Whether they are fundamentalists, technicians or a combination of both, modern\nanalysts want to apply their ideas to a large universe of stocks to find trading possibilities. That creates a market for\ndata and software vendors (both of which have swung at this) who can supply software to find gems - which brings\nus to Morningstar's U.S. Equities OnFloppy (USEOF).
USEOF is a weekly, monthly or quarterly data dump via a disk that is mailed to you containing the fundamental data\nof more than 6,000 stocks. On the disk, one finds things such as pricing, yields, price/earnings ratio, ownership,\nincome state and balance sheet values, cash flow, capital expenditures, inventories, return on assets (ROA)/return on\nearnings (ROE)/return on investment (ROI), quick ratios - well, you get the point (Figure 1). The only thing I'd have\nadded would have been 20-day volatility numbers."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-577-578-pr-u-s-equity-onfloppy-v-4-0-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-577-578-pr-u-s-equity-onfloppy-v-4-0-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-577-578-pr-u-s-equity-onfloppy-v-4-0-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1357prfasv3,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (579-581): PR: FastTrack, v.3.5 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""FastTrack Version 3.5 - by John Sweeney
T ake a look at Figure 1. I'd say you've never seen a mutual fund analysis this technically compact. Directly from\nthis screen, which is the first to pop up when you fire up FastTrack, hitting the F3 key will take you to an abstract of\nthe fund's prospectus; hitting \""C\"" will pop up a host of commentaries; hitting \""T\"" will get you ranking and return\ncalculations for specific periods.
This efficiency and information density is typical of FastTrack throughout. Graphically, what you see is typical of\nwhat you get. Though you can draw a trendline on the graph by manipulating a dot manually via keyboard and then\nmanually extending a line, that's about it. Once you know the mnemonics, you can call up to five charts, some of\nwhich can be indicators, on the screen with single-letter codes you type in. The program is manipulated by a truly\nvast collection of Alts, F-keys, number keys and letters. Most commands are executed with a single keystroke. The\ncharts and indicators are lined up vertically by date. The \""T\"" key drops down vertical lines that can be moved from\nday to day to report prices and indicator values for a selected period."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-579-581-pr-fasttrack-v-3-5-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-579-581-pr-fasttrack-v-3-5-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-579-581-pr-fasttrack-v-3-5-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1358prmetfo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (582-585): PR: MetaStock for Windows, v.5 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MetaStock For Windows Version 5.0 - By John Sweeney
I've called MetaStock the \""all-time heavyweight of technical analysis programs,\"" and I've continued to recommend\nEQUIS International's standard-bearer when hot-and-heavy competitors Omega Research and MarketArts got their\nWindows products out the door years before EQUIS did. Now EQUIS has brought out MetaStock for Windows and\nas far as I'm concerned, it's still the one.
What took EQUIS so long was full implementation of Windows' capabilities, particularly object-oriented\nprogramming and drag and drop-style implementation. It's perfectly possible to create a menu-based application in\nWindows, and to do so quickly, but it takes a lot longer to define the entire environment (the screen that you see) as a\nset of objects (price plot, window borders, trendlines, indicators, you name it) lying on top of each other, variously\nvisible and invisible to the user, each having \""properties\"" (appearance, parameters, links to other objects and so on)\nand interacting with each other.
In an object-oriented program, an object can be picked up and put somewhere else, where, once placed, it must make\nsense to the user. Since it could be placed anywhere on the screen (such as the desktop or the title bar or even where\nit's supposed to go), all contingencies (literally millions of them when the screen is constantly changing) must be\ncovered within the context of the program's purpose, in this case efficient technical analysis."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-582-585-pr-metastock-for-windows-v-5-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-582-585-pr-metastock-for-windows-v-5-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-582-585-pr-metastock-for-windows-v-5-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1358prtradv,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (586-589): PR: TradeStation, v. 3.5 by Fred G. Schutzman, CMT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TradeStation Version 3.5 - by Fred G. Schutzman, CMT
\nOver the years, I've used many of the better technical analysis and trading system development software
Over the years, I've used many of the better technical analysis and trading system development software packages available. I've found that while one may have the best data, another will have the best charts. As you might\nexpect, no one package is the best in all areas, and Omega Research's TradeStation is no exception. Its greatest\nstrength, and what makes this package the most useful software I have ever seen, is its ability to perform historical\ntrading system development and then monitor these systems in real time. TradeStation has a few weaknesses, such\nas its limited printing capabilities, but most of these weaknesses are of minor significance.
I am a professional technical analyst who has had direct input into trading decisions, both through the use of\nmechanical trading systems I developed myself and on a discretionary basis. My objective here is to tell you what\nTradeStation is really capable of. Although TradeStation is in fact an intraday charting package, which is actually a\nvery significant point, I will instead concentrate on using end-of-day data."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-586-589-pr-tradestation-v-3-5-by-fred-g-schutzman-cmt-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-586-589-pr-tradestation-v-3-5-by-fred-g-schutzman-cmt-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-586-589-pr-tradestation-v-3-5-by-fred-g-schutzman-cmt-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1359prmonma,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (590-591): PR: Money Maker for Windows, v.2.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Money Maker For Windows Version 2.0 by John Sweeney
When you open up Money Maker Analyzer, you get a spreadsheet-like affair (Figure 1) that is the rule-of-thumb approach to estimating stock prices. It's an easy, straightforward approach that most people can probably appreciate:\nplug in seven estimators (usually from current values) and the program swiftly projects everything, including the\nstock price, forward for several years (Figure 2), just like that.
That's just one of Money Maker's conveniences. Arrayed across the top of the figures are options for analyzing\nbonds, mutual funds, options, futures and real estate. Each area has four or five to-the-point takes on investing in the\nspecific medium.
For example, pop up futures and you get long or short speculation and long or short hedging calculations (Figure 3).\nLook under the menu for real estate (Figure 4) and cut to the chase when you're trying to do a residential real estate\ndeal. The bond button gives you pricing, yield to maturity, yield to call, realized yield and duration. Mutual funds?\nNo problem. No-load yield, low-load yield and net asset values (NAV) are promptly available."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-590-591-pr-money-maker-for-windows-v-2-0-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-590-591-pr-money-maker-for-windows-v-2-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-590-591-pr-money-maker-for-windows-v-2-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1359prttcha,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (592-594): PR: TT ChartBook, version C by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TT ChartBook 95 Version C by Thom Hartle
Technical Tools' philosophy is to respond to the needs of its customers, so TT ChartBook\n95 adds features based on users' comments, including a complete set of indicators.
I first reviewed TT Chart-Book in the August 1994 STOCKS & COMMODITIES. I commented then that I liked\nworking with ChartBook because it was so easy to use. The simple and straightforward matter of the presentation,\nthe seamless downloading capability and the nifty data export utility, all from within Windows, made my monitoring of the markets at the end of the day an uncomplicated task. I knew then, though, that the typical ChartBook user\nwould be clamoring for more indicators. I remarked at the time that Technical Tools' philosophy was to respond to\nthe needs of its customers and the company would be adding features based on users' comments. Well, TT\nChartBook 95 followed as the upgrade, complete with a set of indicators and other new features. The first question\ncould be, \""Is it still easy to use?\""
The answer is yes. For example, the latest upgrade was E-mailed to me during my daily download of data. I opened\nthe program manager in Windows and ran the upgrade program and my new version was installed. How's that for\neasy? No disks or cryptic instructions, but Technical Tools didn't stop there. They plan to provide future upgrades\nover their E-mail system that will automatically install themselves. Now there's a program that's easy to work with!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-592-594-pr-tt-chartbook-version-c-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-592-594-pr-tt-chartbook-version-c-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-592-594-pr-tt-chartbook-version-c-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1359prsigfo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (595-597): PR: Signal for Windows by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Signal For Windows by John Sweeney
For implementation in Windows, Signal for Windows is an example of well-done\nprogramming.
D ata Broadcasting Corp.'s Signal has been a winner in STOCKS & COMMODITIES' annual Readers' Choice\nAwards in the data category for two years in a row. Signal has run in DOS for many moons, and Signal for\nWindows brings the stalwart quotes provider up one more level with all the Windows doodads and mouse input -though\nthe program can still be driven by keyboard.
As you install Signal, you'll select your choice of datafeeds. Signal for Windows will collect data from an FM radio\nsignal, cable TV channel, television satellite or two other satellite sources, Equatorial (C-band) or FM 3 (Ku-band).\nThe choice of service depends on your location.
Once it's up and running, you can design and save a screen display (Figure 1) - actually, as many displays as you\nlike - that contains a quote window, detailed information about any particular quotable, a running ticker window, a\nleaders window (Figure 2) and a portfolio window, the latter handy for tracking your gains and losses. The entire\narrangement is saved as a layout that can be recalled at will."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-595-597-pr-signal-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-595-597-pr-signal-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-595-597-pr-signal-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13597sbmara,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (597): SB:PR: Market Advisories Available on Signal - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Market Advisories Available on Signal - Technical Analysis, Inc.
SignalReports are text files containing news, analysis and advisory services. Getting the news from your advisor is\nfaster these days than it used to be: It comes via the electromagnetic spectrum via your FM or satellite receiver."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-597-sb-pr-market-advisories-available-on-signal-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-597-sb-pr-market-advisories-available-on-signal-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-597-sb-pr-market-advisories-available-on-signal-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1359prdatne,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (598-599): PR: DataCaster, NetCaster by John Sweeeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""DataCaster NetCaster - by John Sweeney
DataCaster and NetCaster help you build multilayer feedforward neural\nnetworks. DataCaster's statistical abilities should be of particular interest to\ntechnical analysts.
T he demand for neural network products shows no signs of abating. For those interested in applying neural\nnetwork technology to their own trading, some basic questions about any neural net software must be answered:\nHow difficult is it to get the data into the product? How much preprocessing must be done? What, if any, technical\nindicators, time series transformations, statistical functions and graphics capabilities are available to support analysis?
And that's just to get ready for preliminary networking!
Enter DataCaster and NetCaster from Maui Analysis and Synthesis Technologies (MAST). These are companion\nprograms that allow you to design training files for neural networks, preprocess data, train the neural network and\nuse the neural net to make forecasts. Preprocessing data means analyzing and mathematically transforming your data\nto make variables useful and relevant. Using a trial and error principle, the user may build several neural networks,\nvarying the inputs, hidden node and activation function to obtain the best predictor. DataCaster, the preprocessor to\nNetCaster, can be run from NetCaster or on its own, while NetCaster builds and trains a multilayer feedforwardÝ\nneural network."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-598-599-pr-datacaster-netcaster-by-john-sweeeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-598-599-pr-datacaster-netcaster-by-john-sweeeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-598-599-pr-datacaster-netcaster-by-john-sweeeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1360propivv,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (600-603): PR: OptionVue IV, v.1.70 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""OPSCAN REVIEW - by John Sweeney
Options activity seems to be one of the few public indications of takeover attempts. Even though the SEC has banned\ninsider trading, options traders seem to have a sixth sense for companies in play or about to be played before any\npublic announcement. Thus, a market exists for software that can find these opportunities."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-600-603-pr-optionvue-iv-v-1-70-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-600-603-pr-optionvue-iv-v-1-70-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-600-603-pr-optionvue-iv-v-1-70-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13604prasal,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (604): PR: Asset Allocator by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Asset Allocator By John Sweeney
Asset Allocator shows you the most efficient allocation for your portfolio or the\nincremental risk you're taking with your particular allocation.
I f you have a portfolio of stocks and mutual funds, you've probably wondered if you should adjust the balance to\nattempt to meet an investment goal. Asset Allocator (AA) is a product that helps you run your portfolio efficiently by\nselecting combinations of assets to minimize portfolio variance and maximize returns.
With Asset Allocator, you can specify that a particular asset - say, the stock you got from your grandmother - must\nbe in the portfolio, and you can even assign it a minimum percentage. AA will work around that specification to\ncompute the most efficient allocation for the rest of your portfolio."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-604-pr-asset-allocator-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-604-pr-asset-allocator-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-604-pr-asset-allocator-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1360pradget,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (605-608): PR: Advanced GET, v.6.05 by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Advanced GET by Technical Analysis, Inc.
If you've ever wanted a quantifiable approach to Elliott wave analysis, you'll find\nit in the Advanced GET technical analysis software from Trading Techniques.
Typically, Advanced GET's stable of customers are seasoned retail and institutional traders who have survived\nthe rigors of early training in technical analysis and moved on to the exotica of Elliott wave, Gann theory, patterns,\npivots, webs, clusters, cardinal values, seasonals, cycles and ripples.
Nearly two thirds of the customers who joined up as charter subscribers with Trading Techniques at its inception in 1987 are still using the software today, and every upgrade generates a loyal response of over 75%, such is the\nfascination with this technical analysis powerhouse. What, in this day of $250 do-everything technical analysis\npackages, could possibly consistently lure people into spending 10 times that much?
Primarily, it's the Elliott wave projections that users find so fascinating, but more on that later."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-605-608-pr-advanced-get-v-6-05-by-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-605-608-pr-advanced-get-v-6-05-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-605-608-pr-advanced-get-v-6-05-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13608sbaute,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (608): SB:PR: Automating Elliott wave - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Is it possible to trade Elliott waves mechanically? This was the quest of Advanced GET developer Tom Joseph and\nwhat stimulated him to develop the program. Joseph trades his own funds with these techniques, so his motivation\nwas proper: He had money at risk. Plus, he agreed that Elliott wave analysis was complex and subjective.
As he tells the story, he was able to follow Pareto's law (80% of the result comes from 20% of the effort) with\ndifferent ratios: 35% of Elliott analysis generated 80% of the profits. In other words, he simplified things. He\nfocused on wave 3 and particularly on waves 4 and 5."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-608-sb-pr-automating-elliott-wave-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-608-sb-pr-automating-elliott-wave-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-608-sb-pr-automating-elliott-wave-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13608sbteca,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (608): SB:PR: Technical Analysis tools - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Technical Analysis tools - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-608-sb-pr-technical-analysis-tools-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-608-sb-pr-technical-analysis-tools-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-608-sb-pr-technical-analysis-tools-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1360propsim,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (609-611): PR: Option Simulator/Real-Time, v.1.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Simulator/Real-Time By John Sweeney
Option Simulator/Real-Time from Bay Options automatically finds the best\noptions positions and estimates volatility skew, implied and historical\nvolatility.
In 1992, STOCKS & COMMODITIES reviewed with accolades Bay Options' Option Simulator program. In 1995, with the latest program version, the news gets even better: Option Simulator/Real-Time adds a\nreal-time data hook to constantly upgrade the analytics. Bay Options was able to append that previously\nmissing feature by using Data Broadcasting Corp.'s Signal for Windows product as a data server. However,\nOption Simulator/Real-Time can still be used without external data or with data from a database.
At Bay Options, president Rudi Binnewies's goal has been to get sophisticated real-time options analytics into\nthe hands of retail traders for a reasonable price, and he's succeeded. In addition, he's included historical data\nto the package, tying index options to a futures contract (with a fixed basis). He's added the display of\nLEAPSÝ as well as regular options. So how do the features stack up?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-609-611-pr-option-simulator-real-time-v-1-0-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-609-611-pr-option-simulator-real-time-v-1-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-609-611-pr-option-simulator-real-time-v-1-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1361prtoolf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (612-614): PR: Tools for timing by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Tools for Timing By John Sweeney
MIRAT is a mechanical trading system and is the objective core of all three\nTools for Timing packages. It implements the idea that market bottoms can be\nidentified by new market lows.
Timer includes the basic timing model in MIRAT but adds many more\nindicators, making for a method of timing the overall market. The indicators in\nthis program measure changes in trading patterns that define and predict market\ncycles.
Timer Professional comes with extras such as stock and index data and a training\ngame. The user's judgment and expertise adds value to the mechanical trading\nsystem at the base of the program.
M ichael Burk, founder of Tools for Timing, bucks the trend of many experts with his belief that he believes it\nis possible to time the stock market and that anyone can do it. He created the concepts expressed in Tools for\nTiming's stock market timing program Timer. In fact, he detailed his thinking on some of these concepts a few years\nback in several STOCKS & COMMODITIES articles. Timer implements the idea that market bottoms can be\nidentified by new market lows. Together with other indicators included in Timer, this makes for a method to time the\noverall market.
Subsequently, he accepted the challenge of making this somewhat subjective theory objective, succeeding with the\nprogram MIRAT (Mechanical Intermediate Range Timer). Since MIRAT is objective and its performance can be back\ntested, MIRAT is considered first here. Then, discussion of the more subjective approach found in Timer and Timer\nProfessional follows. It is helpful to keep in mind, though, which program came first."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-612-614-pr-tools-for-timing-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-612-614-pr-tools-for-timing-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-612-614-pr-tools-for-timing-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1361propons,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (615-619): PR: Optionomics OnLine System 2.01 - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Optionomics OnLine System - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Optionomics OnLine is a package of programs for realtime analysis of futures,\noptions on futures and options on stocks. It offers risk analysis and portfolio\nmanagement of simple and complex portfolios of multiple contracts.
In the past, the power to be found in the options analytical software offered by Optionomics Corp. had sometimes\nbeen out of reach to the typical broker, retail trader and even many institutional accounts. Signing up with\nOptionomics meant a commitment of $10,000 to $15,000 a year, meaning you'd better be trading some very large\nnumbers to make it worth the investment.
Recently, though, Optionomics president and founder Scott Gordon was able to forge a new alternative: Optionomics\ncustomers can now receive \""refreshed\"" data updates (as opposed to dynamic data updates) on a dial-in basis for\noptions analysis. The result is that you can now use Optionomics with real-time data from the Chicago Board of\nTrade (CBOT) or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) for between $250 to $500 per month, depending on the\npackage you choose. You can use the program with delayed data from other exchanges as well.
The technology employed in the Optionomics OnLine System is unique, relying on an intricate interaction between\nprograms and modes on your machine with data and processing on the Optionomics network system.
The price of Optionomics OnLine is certainly lower than previous program versions, and it can compete with\npackages with a higher initial cost (such as from $500 to $1,250) but with lower monthly operation costs, which\namount mostly to exchange fees. The target market for the latest Optionomics package is traders and part-time\nhedgers who perhaps couldn't justify the cost of previous versions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-615-619-pr-optionomics-online-system-2-01-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-615-619-pr-optionomics-online-system-2-01-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-615-619-pr-optionomics-online-system-2-01-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13616sbstra,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (616): SB:PR: Strategist - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Strategist - Technical Analysis, Inc.
A relatively unpublicized option when subscribing to Optionomics OnLine is to use the facility to build and manage\nrisk positions composed of options. This program is called Strategist and it's designed for commercial use in\nportfolio management."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-616-sb-pr-strategist-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-616-sb-pr-strategist-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-616-sb-pr-strategist-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1361prsup30,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (619-622): PR: SuperCharts 3.0 by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""SuperCharts 3.0 With Bonus CD Database By Technical Analysis, Inc.
Supercharts 3.0 includes a bonus CD with a massive historical database and the\nability to update it with just one click.
Omega Research was the first to commit to designing its software for running in the Windows environment,\ngambling that this technology would be the way consumers would soon interact with their personal computers. It\nwas a great call on their part, because today every Dos computer comes with Windows installed. With hindsight, the\ndecision to committing to Windows may seem obvious, but at the time it was still a risky proposition. Looking\nforward again, Omega is working to maintain its lead by once more incorporating the boldest and newest science for\ntheir software, in this case CD-Rom technology, into its latest version of SuperCharts. This step forward is basically\nfree to the consumer, because the price of SuperCharts 3.0 with the bonus CD database is the same price as the\nprevious version, SuperCharts 2.1.
So what do you get with this step? Well, one thing we all want is data, and with SuperCharts 3.0, you get a ton of it.\nThrough a joint offer with Dial Data, the compact disc version comes with 25 years of historical data for more than\n18,000 symbols. Included are all US stocks, Canadian stocks, US mutual funds and indices, futures data from June\n1993 on, as well as current fundamental data on 8,000 US stocks. Omega's goal was to give the user a massive\nhistorical database on CD and the ability to update and maintain the database with just one click. The bonus CD is an\nincredible value. However, you don't have to use it to consider using SuperCharts 3.0 because there are other new\nfeatures, so let's start at the beginning."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-619-622-pr-supercharts-3-0-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-619-622-pr-supercharts-3-0-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-619-622-pr-supercharts-3-0-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1362prvecpr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (623-625): PR: VectorVest ProGraphics, v.1 By Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""VectorVest ProGraphics Version 1.0 by Technical Analysis, Inc.
VectorVest ProGraphics software analyzes, sorts, searches, screens, ranks and\ngraphs more than 4,000 stocks, 190 industry groups and 50 industry sectors\nusing a combination of both technical and fundamental factors.
VectorVest ProGraphics software from VectorVest Stock Advisory started off as a method of determining the\nvalue of stocks, a quest that theorists and practitioners have pursued for years. The theory goes that during the course of a stock's price history, price must eventually revert to value. With appropriate analysis, VectorVest\nProGraphics users will find stocks of good value before the crowd finds them.
VectorVest (VV) approaches the task of determining stock value by computing a value relative to AAA corporate\nbonds. Then a safety measure is computed based on consistency of earnings and beta. Finally, the timing is based on\ntrailing 13-week price performance. Each statistic is scaled in a range of 0 to 2.00. Ratings above 1.00 are favorable,\nwhile those below 1.00 are not. The program's summary statistic, the VST-vector, is the square root of the summed,\nsquared values, which is also the classic vector solution.
Not that stock value ratings are the only information provided by the service. A typical VectorVest report from the\nadvisory service includes not only the components listed above, but also a growth rate for forecasted earnings in the\ncoming year, plus a buy/hold/sell recommendation replete with stop."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-623-625-pr-vectorvest-prographics-v-1-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-623-625-pr-vectorvest-prographics-v-1-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-623-625-pr-vectorvest-prographics-v-1-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1362prperho,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (626-628): PR: Personal Hotline by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Personal Hotline Version 6.8 by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Personal Hotline from Trendsettters Software, one of the few technical analysis\nprograms available for the Macintosh, gives you many capabilities that in DOS\npackages are usually only available seperately.
Readers who are Apple Macintosh users often call STOCKS & COMMODITIES looking for software that can\nperform the technical analysis they desire without running DOS/Windows emulation software. Personal Hotline from\nTrendsetter Software is one of the few technical analysis programs available for the Macintosh. (Trendsetter\nSoftware also publishes Personal Analyst and Professional Analyst programs for the Mac.) We last reviewed\nPersonal Hotline, as version 6.6, in our January 1994 issue (and version 5.0 in July 1991) and, being ardent\nMac-users (as well as a Mac-driven company), we looked forward to seeing it again. What we found was basically\nthe same program, only with smoother operations, no bugs and many enhancements.
Loading Personal Hotline is automatic these days, and the manual immediately takes you on a tour of the program,\nwhich highlights the program's features. Immediately thereafter you're introduced to the integrated data downloading\nfeature, which connects to the Dial Data data service, a feature that worked right out of the box for us. Thus set up,\nyou're ready to dive into analysis.
A list-oriented program, Personal Hotline makes list construction fairly easy with checkboxes for futures and equity\noptions series (Figure 1). You could put in individual symbols yourself, of course, but nearly everyone would use\ncheckboxes instead. Once your list of potential tradables is constructed, the program will check to see what data\nyou're missing and order the missing data from Dial Data. If you want it to check your data on an unattended basis,\nyou can set it up for that as well."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-626-628-pr-personal-hotline-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-626-628-pr-personal-hotline-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-626-628-pr-personal-hotline-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1362prshivv,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (629-630): PR: SHIVA, version 1.0 by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""SHIVA Version 1.0 by Technical Analysis, Inc.
SHIVA is a trading system development program that tests single commodities or\nentire portfolios of tradables, allowing the user to adjust parameters, apply\nfilters, reverse signals and diversify.
Suppose you had a good volatility breakout system and wanted to test it on a gazillion different parameters.\nSuppose you wanted to try it on tick as well as daily data for most of the futures contracts in the world - including\nactual data with rollovers. Suppose you wanted to be able to test portfolios of tradables as well as single\ncommodities. The number of combinations you have in mind gets into eight figures for a single run. Your trusty\nprogrammer has created an artificial intelligence routine to search for the best combinations rather than actually\nperform every single test exhaustively, and he's also gotten the whole testing process running in 32-bit mode on\nyour 486 PC to make the runs last minutes rather than weeks.
Well, advisor and software developer FCM has put together a trading system development package capable of all\nthis. After using it for some time in-house, the company decided to take it on the road as a program called SHIVA.\nFor those who enjoyed the volatility breakout systems that were popular three or four years ago, SHIVA is the\nultimate numbers masher."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-629-630-pr-shiva-version-1-0-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-629-630-pr-shiva-version-1-0-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-629-630-pr-shiva-version-1-0-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1363prdowjo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (631-633): PR: Dow Jones Private Investor Edition by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Dow Jones Private Investor Edition by Technical Analysis, Inc.
In its basic service package, Dow Jones Private Investor yields quotes on stocks,\nbonds, mutual funds, indices, options and futures. It also taps information from\nseven Dow Jones newswires.
Dow Jones's reputation for its assemblage of information for investment professionals is a just one. In the past,\naccessing that wealth of information found in the Dow Jones News/Retrieval databases has not been overly\nuser-friendly, because the database structure could be difficult to work with and the access software was\nundistinguished. But with Dow Jones News/Retrieval-Private Investor Edition (DJPI), Dow Jones is out to change\nthat. A spiffy new Windows interface with point-and-click searching now leads the user through the categorization that's\nbuilt into the software. The new access software provides a complete snapshot of all the services and features\navailable. And since that's quite a bit, those who want to explore this universe should exploit Dow Jones's offer of\neight hours' access from 7:01 p.m. to 6 a.m. local time to the 18 databases most valuable to private investors."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-631-633-pr-dow-jones-private-investor-edition-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-631-633-pr-dow-jones-private-investor-edition-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-631-633-pr-dow-jones-private-investor-edition-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1363prprivt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (634-637): PR: A Private Tutorial with Bill Williams by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""A Private Tutorial With Bill Williams By Thom Hartle
Profitunity Tradying Group's 12-week home study trading course includes all the\nmaterials shown here.
I first heard of Bill Williams when STOCKS & COMMODITIES published an article called the \""Market facilitation\nindicator\"" - also known as MFI - in October 1989. Williams developed the index, which uses volume, and since\nthen, because of my interest in looking at volume as part of my own analysis, I have always noticed any references\nto his work.
I finally met Williams at the October 1994 Technical Analysis Group (TAG) XVI seminar sponsored by Dow Jones\nTelerate when I attended his presentation, which I found to be quite good, both informative and entertaining. In\nglancing through the biographical section of the seminar program, I noticed that Williams had been trading for more\nthan 34 years and participated in seminars in 12 different countries. The bio also mentioned that he had privately\ntrained more than 300 traders who now trade full time. Intriguing, I thought."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-634-637-pr-a-private-tutorial-with-bill-williams-by-thom-hartle-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-634-637-pr-a-private-tutorial-with-bill-williams-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-634-637-pr-a-private-tutorial-with-bill-williams-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1363praiqtr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (638-641): PR: AIQ TradingExpert for Windows by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""AIQ TradingExpert For Windows by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Ah, artificial intelligence! When this decidedly cerebral topic was first coming to the academic surface many years\nago, it was seized by greedy traders as ardently as neural networks have been in the last several years, to equally\nmixed results. Time will winnow down the neural network enthusiasts as it has the artificial intelligence fans, the\nsurvivors being those with substance and staying power. In AIQ Systems, we evidently have a company and a technique with both these qualities.
AIQ Systems' TradingExpert combines rules for the general market and rules for stocks into one program. The\nprogram helps you screen your stock universe and time trades in the indices or issues. In its current incarnation,\nTradingExpert supports the Windows interface, which is rapidly becoming a standard in technical analysis software,\nwithout going to full Microsoft Office format. The result is a visually oriented program customized to the technical\nanalyst's niche with great ease of use.
AIQ's trading model is currently performing well. A newsletter run by AIQ chief analyst Dave Vomund is currently\nranked second or third in Timer Digest . His relatively simple trading strategies studied since 1992 are showing\nannual compound growth rates in the 22% range.
Between 400 and 500 rules now populate AIQ's TradingExpert, and the program has grown to occupy so much\nintellectual and hard disk real estate that users may never explore all its riches. It's continually being developed and\nelaborated on at AIQ Systems headquarters in Incline Village, so reviewing it is like glancing at a flock of birds as it\ngoes by: Not only is the target moving, but it's changing shape as well."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-638-641-pr-aiq-tradingexpert-for-windows-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-638-641-pr-aiq-tradingexpert-for-windows-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-638-641-pr-aiq-tradingexpert-for-windows-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1364prstocp,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (642-645): PR: Stock Prophet, version 2.0 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock Prophet Version 2.0 by John Sweeney
Stock Prophet from Future Wave Software is a data preprocessor and technical\nanalysis package for use with neural network development software.
Future Wave Software's Stock Prophet is a studious program that preprocesses trading indicators for use in neural\nnetwork trading systems. What is data preprocessing? It's taking your raw data, transforming it (into, say,\nindicators), then compressing and aligning it into comparable periods. Then you scale it into values between zero and\none so that the neural network algorithm has the right variables properly presented when it starts estimating neuron\nweights. Preprocessing also includes smoothing, detrending and selecting the best indicators for the selected market.
Previously, preprocessing data was the bane of using neural networks for trading. When neural network programs\nfirst became popular with traders, most software left the chore of data preprocessing up to the user. You would\nusually perform the preprocessing in spreadsheets, whence you would dump out an ASCII file that the neural\nnetwork program could read. File formatting being the tedious, error-prone problem it is, this process could result in\nlots of frustration and numerous calls to technical support."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-642-645-pr-stock-prophet-version-2-0-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-642-645-pr-stock-prophet-version-2-0-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-642-645-pr-stock-prophet-version-2-0-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13644sbbrai,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (644): SB:PR: Brainmaker - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Brainmaker - Technical Analysis, Inc.
California Scientific Software has sold thousands of copies of its BrainMaker neural network development software,\nand it's usually the neural network trainer of choice for Stock Prophet users. You must have BrainMaker (standard\nversion, $195, or professional version, $795) or another neural network program (such as N-TRAIN from Scientific\nConsultant Services) to receive advance signals from a neural net indicator created in Stock Prophet.
Curiously, throughout the process of creating indicators in Stock Prophet and outputting the data to BrainMaker to\nperform the neural net analysis of your indicators, you actually don't see much of BrainMaker. Stock Prophet\nincludes commands that fire up BrainMaker, so all you need to do is invoke and cut off training of your data.\nConveniently, Stock Prophet sets up the network structure (including number of inputs, number of neuron layers\nand so forth) before you ever venture into BrainMaker. With all the homework done, your only real decision is\nwhich display to watch as the network trains."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-644-sb-pr-brainmaker-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-644-sb-pr-brainmaker-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-644-sb-pr-brainmaker-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13649qstrad,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (649): QS: Tradeline Electronic Stock Guide - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADELINE ELECTRONIC STOCK GUIDE - Technical Analysis, Inc.
The Tradeline Electronic Stock Guide (TESG) is a budget snapshot of the market. A Windows-based financial\nreference tool, the TESG allows you to screen more than 7,000 stocks (and 145 indices) using up to 23 different\nparameters on which you can set minimums and maximums (Figure 1). Since it's in Windows, it's all done with\nminimal typing."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-649-qs-tradeline-electronic-stock-guide-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-649-qs-tradeline-electronic-stock-guide-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-649-qs-tradeline-electronic-stock-guide-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13650qsinre,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (650): QS: The Institutional Report and Power Plus"",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE INSTITUTIONAL REPORT WITH POWER PLUS - Technical Analysis, Inc.
The world of the portfolio manager is different from the world view you and I share. To begin with, there are\nrelatively few portfolio managers, especially those that manage more than $100 million. Their appetite for data is\nunrestrained. Vendors return their inquiries instantly. Support? Wow! Best of all, they can muddle along with\nold-news techniques and black-box analysis, purchased at premium prices.
Lowry's Institutional Report is focused on that elite crew, those managing more than $500 million and willing to pay\n$5,000 a year for a weekly hard-copy report that is delivered by next-day courier service on 900 institutional-quality\nstocks (95% of market capitalization). Those who want to see it all (plus another 2,100 stocks, funds or market\nindicators) on a computer screen (Figure 1) can do so for another $4,750 per year."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-650-qs-the-institutional-report-and-power-plus-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-650-qs-the-institutional-report-and-power-plus-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-650-qs-the-institutional-report-and-power-plus-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13653qsnews,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (653): QS: The New Science of Technical Analysis - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The New Science of Technical Analysis - Technical Analysis, Inc.
T homas DeMark, I'm told, has worked and is working for many of the leading lights of the technically oriented\ninvestment world, and this book is a reprise of his trips through the analytical continents of trendlines, retracements,\noverbought/oversold levels, wave analysis, accumulation/distribution, moving averages, price patterns, gaps, daily\nrange projections and rates of change.
Well, that pretty well covers the world of technical analysis developed in the 1970s and 1980s!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-653-qs-the-new-science-of-technical-analysis-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-653-qs-the-new-science-of-technical-analysis-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-653-qs-the-new-science-of-technical-analysis-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13654qsstoc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (654): QS: Stock Selector System - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock Selector System - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Michael Sheimo's Stock Selector System goes into detail on how best to select stocks for\na portfolio.
The Stock Selector System presents Michael Sheimo's ideas about how one can best select the stocks for a\nprofitable portfolio. He goes into detail as to the rationale behind his system and about the stocks he selects for the\nbook's sample portfolio. His ideas as presented here are simple and straightforward and explained in like manner.\nThe book has many examples of different stocks and why they may or may not be the right stock to assure increased\nportfolio worth.
Sheimo's philosophy is not one of chasing stocks, but rather one of deciding on the final objective and then picking\nthe stocks that best fill that objective. After doing so, he decides when the best time is to buy the selected stocks\nbased on what has already been decided as the portfolio objective."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-654-qs-stock-selector-system-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-654-qs-stock-selector-system-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-654-qs-stock-selector-system-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13655qsquan,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (655): QS: Quantitative Trading & Money Management - Technical Anlaysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quantitative Trading & Money Management - Technical Anlaysis, Inc.
Fred Gehm's latest book covers the basic statistics one can use in trading\nsituations and in avoiding catastrophic risk.
Avoiding the largest possible loss, the one that can put you out of business, is a critical factor in trading.\nNumerous techniques are available for doing this. Usually, they are arcane. Fred Gehm's second book,\nQuantitative Trading & Money Management , addresses most of the techniques.
Gehm's latest book covers the basic statistics one can use in trading situations as well as the avoidance of\ncatastrophic risk and the use of portfolio strategies. Surrounding this nucleus are practical sections on\nmanaging risk management on a day-to-day basis (all the way down to sample trading logs!), something\nGehm does as a senior analyst for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the world's larger investors."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-655-qs-quantitative-trading-money-management-technical-anlaysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-655-qs-quantitative-trading-money-management-technical-anlaysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-655-qs-quantitative-trading-money-management-technical-anlaysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1365quantra,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (655):QS: Quantitative Trading & Money Management - Technical Analysis, Inc. V13 (656): QS: Momentum, Direction, and Divergence"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quantitative Trading & Money Management - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Applying the Latest Momentum Indicators for Technical Analysis
\""Momentum\"" in Momentum, Direction and Divergence should rightfully be spelled out in capital letters, for this is\ntruly the foundation on which this book was built. The thesis, as expounded by author and STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES contributor William Blau, is that the momentum of a security, when properly massaged, can be\nused as a determinant for when to trade and, more important, when not to trade. Blau's explanation of why and how\nthis is the case, through the application of double smoothing the momentum to create his indicators, is the heart of\nthis volume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-655-qs-quantitative-trading-money-management-technical-analysis-inc-v13-656-qs-momentum-direction-and-divergence-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-655-qs-quantitative-trading-money-management-technical-analysis-inc-v13-656-qs-momentum-direction-and-divergence-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-655-qs-quantitative-trading-money-management-technical-analysis-inc-v13-656-qs-momentum-direction-and-divergence-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13657qsfuna,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (657): QS: Fundamental Analysis - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Fundamental Analysis - Technical Analysis, Inc.
In Fundamental Analysis, author Jack Schwager explains how you can use\nfundamental analysis to forecast the direction of prices in the futures markets.\nHis view is that if a trader wants to understand the cause-and-effect relationship\nin the behavior of a market, you must turn to fundamental analysis.
In Fundamental Analysis , one of the many kernels of wisdom, this one discussing the role of expectations, is a\nvariation on Murphy's Law as quoted by 19th-century British politician Benjamin Disraeli: \""What we anticipate\nseldom occurs; what we least expect generally happens.\"" Yet in Fundamental Analysis , which covers the\napplication of fundamental analysis to futures trading, author Jack Schwager successfully explains how you can use\nfundamental analysis to forecast the direction of prices in the futures markets. Schwager's view is that if a trader\nwants to understand the cause-and-effect relationship in the behavior of a market, you must turn to fundamental\nanalysis.
Fundamental Analysis is divided into four parts. Part 1, which is very brief, gives the reader an overview of the\nbook. More important, it gives the beginner a comprehensive look at what trading in the commodity markets is all\nabout."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-657-qs-fundamental-analysis-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-657-qs-fundamental-analysis-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-657-qs-fundamental-analysis-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1365qscombo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (658-659): QS: Compilation: Books on trading - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Compilation: Books on trading - Technical Analysis, Inc.
There are books on specific trading systems and books on trading indicators and then there are a few books on the\nagony of developing trading systems. Herewith, we offer a quick listing of relatively modern books on that subject.
The recent selection starts with Bruce Babcock's Business One Irwin Guide to Trading Systems. Now in print for\nfive years, this volume is still the best summary of the practical side of developing mechanical trading systems. All\nthe right subjects are treated here, so let's lay them out:
Gambling\nFailure\nMechanical approaches\nTesting\nOptimization\nPerformance\nEntry, stops, exits\nPortfolio approaches\nMoney management\nTrade management
Babcock's book spends a little too much time on subjects hot at the time of writing - curve fitting and certain entry\nand exit methods - but where else can you read unbiased opinions about everything from your personal problems to\nthe merchandising of trading systems, particularly the scams perpetrated on traders?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-658-659-qs-compilation-books-on-trading-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-658-659-qs-compilation-books-on-trading-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-658-659-qs-compilation-books-on-trading-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13660qselsc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (660): QS: Electric Scorecard II, version 6.0c - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Electric Scorecard II, version 6.0c - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Orbit's Electric Scorecard makes keeping track of trades as painless as possible.
Keeping track of trades can be as much of a chore as putting them on and taking them off - and maybe more. Electric\nScorecard II is designed to make this tedium as easy as possible. It succeeds by being as fast as you're likely to see\non a computer using DOS.
Electric Scorecard can run under OS/2 or Windows but it really flies under DOS. Once you know its ins and outs and\nyour fingers start flying, entry is as fast as you can type. It handles either futures contracts or futures options (no\nstocks, bonds or mutual funds), two areas where most portfolio management packages are weak or nonexistent. It\nmust also be said that Electric Scorecard II faithfully and effectively deals with the arcane pricing structures and size\nof different contracts, details of which are crucial in this area. The software's only limitation here is that it deals with\nUS and Canadian exchanges only, but some contracts on these exchanges aren't supported by the program."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-660-qs-electric-scorecard-ii-version-6-0c-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-660-qs-electric-scorecard-ii-version-6-0c-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-660-qs-electric-scorecard-ii-version-6-0c-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1366qsneurn,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (660-661): QS: Neural Net Tutor, version 1.0 for Windows - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Neural Net Tutor, version 1.0 for Windows - Technical Analysis, Inc.
For those traders who would really like to know the math and the nuts and the bolts involved\nin neural networks without trundling off to the local university, Neural Network Tutor\nsupplies a course in a box.
Most traders would rather die than take a college course in neural networks, aptly imagining all the curve-raising\nengineers who'd haggle over the fine points of differential equations until long after class had actually ended for the\nday. Nevertheless, for that subset who would really like to know the math and the nuts and bolts involved in neural networks without trundling off to the local university, Neural Network Tutor, based on a university-level course\ntaught at the University of Toronto, supplies a course in a box."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-660-661-qs-neural-net-tutor-version-1-0-for-windows-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-660-661-qs-neural-net-tutor-version-1-0-for-windows-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-660-661-qs-neural-net-tutor-version-1-0-for-windows-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13662qssmar,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (662): QS: Smarter Trading - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Smarter Trading - Technical Analysis, Inc.
To survive and succeed in the financial markets, you need to find the good trades and know when and where to enter\nand exit positions. You have to cut losses, take profits and avoid lethal money management errors that kill so many\nbeginners. Amateurs lose because of ignorance, overtrading and gambling in the markets. Perry Kaufman's Smarter\nTrading is a good book for those who are past the stage of original innocence in the markets, ready to learn to trade\nbetter."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-662-qs-smarter-trading-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-662-qs-smarter-trading-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-662-qs-smarter-trading-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1366qsmoorr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (663-664): QS: Moore Research Center Report - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Moore Research Center Report - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Futures traders interested in seasonal data can get quality information from the MRC\nReport.
Consider this: Say you trade the futures markets. Would you be interested in knowing the likelihood of your market\nof choice rallying late into the year? Would you like to know if a market had a tendency to rise or fall during other\ntimes of the year?
Statisticians answer these questions using what is known as seasonal analysis . Seasonal fluctuations are generally\nrecurring patterns of movement on an annual basis. The name alludes to the fact that there are four seasons and there\nare markets that tend to fluctuate due to changes in the seasons. But this form of analysis does not have to be limited\nto those markets most affected by changes in the weather. For example, did you know that in 14 out of the last 15\nyears, the Treasury bond futures market has closed at a higher price during the latter part of December than the price\nit was trading during the first week of November? That's certainly a strong seasonal tendency, and that's the type of\nquality information available from the Moore Research Center (MRC)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-663-664-qs-moore-research-center-report-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-663-664-qs-moore-research-center-report-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-663-664-qs-moore-research-center-report-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13664qsnetm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (664): QS: Net Money - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Net Money - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Cybersurfers have created a guide to information and services related to personal finance\navailable on the Internet.
If the \""Anything for Dummies\"" series of volumes has had any benefit, it's the proliferation of books on technical\ntopics that are actually easy to read, entertaining and effective at educating. The latest in the genre, Net Money , is a\ncopublishing effort between Random House Electronic Publishing and Michael Wolff & Co. guiding you to\nmoney-related topics accessible on the Internet.
The publisher has had some cybersurfers do the unenviable job of creating a guide to sources of information or\nservices for everything related to personal finance, sources accessible electronically. Areas covered include the major\nnetworks (America OnLine, CompuServe, Prodigy, eWorld, GEnie), some bulletin boards and some sites on the\nInternet. I say \""some\"" because it's impossible to know if everything has been covered and most of the references are\nto commercial sites. All I know is that it takes Net Money nearly 300 pages to list all the things that its compilers\ndid find."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-664-qs-net-money-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-664-qs-net-money-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-664-qs-net-money-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13665qsbeyc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (665): QS: Beyond Candlesticks - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Beyond Candlesticks - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Candlestick expert Steve Nison, who was interviewed in the March 1991 issue of STOCKS\n& COMMODITIES, brings to light several new candlestick patterns.
In Beyond Candlesticks , Steve Nison delivers his second financial charting offspring from Japan. It's not a sequel\nto Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques ; it can stand alone and is not dependent on the first volume. In\nNison's continuing research into candlesticks, he has read and had translated a great deal of new information, which\nhas been incorporated into this new work.
Beyond Candlesticks is divided into two distinct parts. The first 150 pages are devoted to a well-illustrated,\ncarefully explained description of candles and the charting patterns that use them. While he doesn't cover every\npattern mentioned in his original work, he includes everything that is needed to use candles effectively."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-665-qs-beyond-candlesticks-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-665-qs-beyond-candlesticks-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-665-qs-beyond-candlesticks-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13665qslitb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13 (665): QS: The Little Book of Investing - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""The Little Book of Investing - Technical Analysis, Inc.
This three- by five-inch pocketbook on investing offers excellent advice for novice investors.
Everything, of course, is relative. In the case of The Little Book of Investing , subtitled \""How to approach investing\nwithout getting lost in the details,\"" what author Maria Crawford Scott considers to be mere detail is relative. With this\nwork, Scott, who is the editor of the American Association of Individual Investors' (AAII) Journal , brings to the\nreader a range of her knowledge of the business.
In The Little Book of Investing , she hits all the high and middle spots, and more of the lower ones than could be\nimagined in such a small book - . She starts with the big picture and then looks closely at each segment of that picture\nand its relationship to the rest."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-665-qs-the-little-book-of-investing-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-665-qs-the-little-book-of-investing-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-665-qs-the-little-book-of-investing-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13prbehbyjo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13: PR: Behold by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Behold! Macintosh version 2.2 - By John Sweeney
Software developers have successfully installed trading system logic in most prominent packages for DOS and\nWindows users. Rarer is the complete package for the Macintosh user. One prominent development environment for\nthe Mac is Behold!. Combining graphics, spreadsheet data manipulation, trading rules and testing results in one\nprogram, Behold! makes system development as easy as it's likely to get.
Using Behold! is like starting with a Microsoft Excel worksheet that has miraculously sprouted an automatic\ngraphing capability and a simple means of specifying trading rules. Those of us who've painstakingly contorted\nExcel into trading models have enjoyed the freedom of data access and the power of the formulary but cursed the\nmanipulations necessary for graphs and the tedious summarizing of testing results. After many iterations, you have a\ngeneric testing model into which you slap new data now and then, but there always seems to be another tweak\nnecessary, leading you into spending more time programming than conceptualizing trading.
AN EDUCATIONAL APPROACH
Behold! developer Jim Payne is clearly familiar with trading system development as well as the benefits of the\nspreadsheet format. However, Payne didn't stop there. Another major plus of Behold! is the instructional approach\nof the manual.
Reading the manual is not only an exercise in familiarization but also a course of study in system development. What\nother manual throws in a great quick-and-dirty calculation for figuring the number of trades to reach 95% confidence\nlevels? Or explains why you'd want to cut up data files to test segments individually? Or gets into terminal wealth\nrelatives (the ratio of original capital to final capital for optimal capital traded), as popularized by Ralph Vince?
Besides, Behold!'s manual is more like a tour. As you read along, it shows you the program's nooks and crannies\nfar more effectively than most manuals do, tossing in explanations and asides for further study. Though you could\njust open the program and start clicking (Figure 1), reading this manual is worth your while, especially because it\nisn't indexed well and many subjects are treated fairly briefly and only in context."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-pr-behold-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-pr-behold-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-pr-behold-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13prsupbyjo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13: PR: SuperCharts by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SuperCharts Version 2.1 - By John Sweeney
Omega Research's Bill Cruz beat the world in using Windows for full-bore technical analysis and at the rate he's\ncranking out new modules, he doesn't intend to give up his lead. SuperCharts 2.1 adds access to fundamental data\nvia Dial Data or Telescan, an intelligent agent of sorts to assist users, new documentation and help facilities, and\ncommentary on the market. At $249, SuperCharts keeps the pressure on prices and has forced competitors in this\nniche to hold or reduce prices while vastly upgrading features.
We're now at the point where we're getting advanced-level technical analysis programs (those that let you create your\nown indicators) for less than introductory-level programs three years ago. While SuperCharts is not the most\nadvanced program Omega or anyone else puts out, its tremendous capabilities make it just the program needed for\nmost technical traders and investors.
NEW STUFF
Since we reviewed SuperCharts 1.03 in the August 1993 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I won't rehash things. But I\nwill point out that besides installing smoothly, this version of SuperCharts, 2.1, comes with an automated\ninstallation of Dial Data and Telescan data access for no additional money. By that I mean that should you care to use\nDial Data or Telescan for your data source, SuperCharts will step you through the process of setting up your\ncommunications, your vendor account and password, and your data selection. It comes preloaded with all the phone\nnumbers, all the network options, all the modem setups, all the data service fields, and all the symbols for tradables!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-pr-supercharts-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-pr-supercharts-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-pr-supercharts-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13sbprsupby,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13: SB: PR: SuperCharts by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""SuperCharts by John Sweeney
The marked increase in technical support requests has been daunting. On the one hand, the software developers are\nexpanding their market beyond the traditional quantitatively oriented, do-it-yourself investor to increase software\nsales, at the same time employing ever more exotic programming to increase the attractiveness of their software. On\nthe other hand, this new cloud of investors needs more handholding than the old crew who often took perverse\npleasure in figuring out workarounds for bugs, parameter glitches and obstreperous graphic displays.
The new crowd will have none of that. They've been taught that they can call anytime for over-the-phone answers\nfrom a real person. Unfortunately, it can't happen in a niche market. In general, calling some of these tech support\nservices, not just Omega Research, is often an exercise in patience despite innovative attempts on the vendors' parts:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-sb-pr-supercharts-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-sb-pr-supercharts-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-sb-pr-supercharts-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-aweekly-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:06: (233-237): A Weekly S&P Trading System by Adam White"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13:06: (233-237): A Weekly S&P Trading System by Adam White
Here's a trading system based on a price pattern and which uses the Standard & Poor's 500 index as a test case.
Should a stock market investor buy and hold, or should he or she attempt to trade the major market trends? The answer depends on many factors, but even the most convincing arguments for buy and hold will not prevent curious technicians from designing trading systems. Let me introduce a system to trade the market trends.
The system's performance goal is to add value to stock market investing over and beyond what is subtracted by the costs of running the system. At first, this might mean achieving a higher annual return than buy and hold, but this is not necessarily the case. If the system can lessen risk effectively, then it adds value even if the total return is less than buy and hold. This is because investors don't invest with a trading system; they invest with their portfolios.
If the trading system lowers risk, we can restructure our portfolio and commit more capital to the market than we\nwould have with a buy and hold strategy. This builds more capital in the long run, even with a lower return. Of\ncourse, an improved annual return is still something to shoot for, but the smoothness of the equity line should get equal attention.
THE SYSTEM'S CHARACTER
The character of the system will be plain vanilla trend-following: Cut losses and let profits run. More specifically, the system will aim to be in the market during authoritative rising trends and out of the market and in cash during unsure sideways or downward action. (Short positions are never taken.) Critical to this strategy will be that the system employ different devices for the entry and exit. The entry will be selective, attempting to catch only the most powerful trends, while the exit will be adaptive, allowing strong trends ample opportunity to run while terminating positions in uncertain and risky conditions. Finally, the system will take a long-term stance, trading weekly bars of\nthe Standard & Poor's 500 index. Given these design parameters, it won't trade very frequently, and it will often spend significant periods out of the market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-233-237-a-weekly-s-p-trading-system-by-adam-white-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-233-237-a-weekly-s-p-trading-system-by-adam-white-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-233-237-a-weekly-s-p-trading-system-by-adam-white-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-optimum-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:06: (247-251):Optimum Predictive Filters by John F. Ehlers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13:06: (247-251):Optimum Predictive Filters by John F. Ehlers
The optimum predictive filter is the difference between a technical indicator, such as the relative strength indicator or stochastics, and its exponential moving\naverage. Here, we describe it, how to generate it, and how it can be used. It cannot be used in all market conditions - but carefully observing when it can be\nused can make it a valuable weapon in your technical arsenal.
Technical analysis is reactive to market activity. The indicators we develop are largely generated to note the\nexpected price direction. The predictive nature of these indicators is based on our experience, so the expectation is that if a particular action occurred previously, it will occur again. However, none of the indicators are truly predictive in the scientific sense.
Here, we will examine a predictive filter, how to generate it, and most important, the conditions under which the filter can be most effectively used. Like all technical indicators, the optimum predictive filter cannot be used universally in all market conditions. Observing those conditions where it can be used, however, can make the filter a valuable tool in your technical toolbox.
WHAT IT IS
An optimum predictive filter is simply the difference between the original indicator and its exponential moving average. It really is that simple! While the implementation is simple, however, the derivation is considerably more complex.
Having defined an optimum predictive filter, we must specify the conditions for that filter to be valid. First, the\namplitude swings of the original indicator must be limited, and second, the probability of the indicator passing through its zero value must satisfy a Poisson probability distribution. Both conditions are easy to satisfy."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-247-251-optimum-predictive-filters-by-john-f-ehlers-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-247-251-optimum-predictive-filters-by-john-f-ehlers-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-247-251-optimum-predictive-filters-by-john-f-ehlers-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-backtst-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:06: (255-259): Back Testing The Daily Sentiment Index by Lee Ang"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13:06: (255-259): Back Testing The Daily Sentiment Index by Lee Ang
Market traders and advisors use sentiment surveys as a tool to identify extreme bullishness or bearishness. Here, then, is one trader's research into identifying what the best levels of a sentiment survey are for trading Treasury bond futures.
The daily sentiment index (DSI) is based on nonprofessional speculators' opinions of futures markets. Its creator, market timer Jake Bernstein of MBH Commodity Advisors, surveys nonprofessional traders at the end of each trading day regarding their level of bullish sentiment for each futures market and publishes the results after the markets close via a hotline, fax service and computer bulletin board. This index ranges from one to 100, in which a reading of 80 to 100 indicates that most of the respondents are extremely bullish, while a reading from one to 20\nsignifies that most respondents are extremely bearish. A reading of 50 would mean that the respondents are relatively neutral about the general market direction.
Traders normally use the DSI as a contrarian tool. The logic behind doing so is that when everyone agrees on market direction, the market usually moves in the opposite direction because the current price has adequately discounted the prevailing sentiment. Thus, a reading of 25 or below is considered to be a bullish reading, while a reading of 75 or above is taken to be a bearish indication.
Is the DSI a good contrarian tool? To find out, let's focus whether the daily sentiment index is effective as a trading tool for US Treasury bond futures. Before we go into that, however, let us explore the DSI's trading strategy and start with back-testing assumptions, using Logical Information Machine (LIM) software on a workstation to do so."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-255-259-back-testing-the-daily-sentiment-index-by-lee-ang-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-255-259-back-testing-the-daily-sentiment-index-by-lee-ang-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-255-259-back-testing-the-daily-sentiment-index-by-lee-ang-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c06-intervw-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:06: (260-268): Perry Kaufman On Market Analysis by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13:06: (260-268): Perry Kaufman On Market Analysis by Thom Hartle
Perry Kaufman began his career in the field of trading and market research in 1971. Since then, he has been a money manager, consultant and author of six books, including the popular Commodity Trading Systems and\nMethods. His most recent book, Smarter Trading, presents his perspective of the key issues in trading and designing systems. Today, he writes and edits the quarterly report \""Kaufman on Market Analysis,\"" which he\npublishes from his farm in Vermont. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Perry Kaufman via telephone on March 28, 1995, about how markets evolve, ways to manage risk, designing a trading system and his views on the use of computers to validate trading strategies.
Q: Perry, you were one of the first to use computers to develop trading strategies for the markets. How did you get started?
A: Back then, the technology wasn't easily accessible and there really wasn't anyone doing computer research. I had the computer background and a company I had formed in 1969 that provided medical billing for Medicare. In late 1970, I was approached by the principals of an options firm to develop a trading strategy to hedge options. These people had contacted IBM and a couple of the larger Wall Street firms about the problem of hedging options risk, but no one would have anything to do with it. They were told it was too specialized, so they searched around for an independent firm to do it. It seemed interesting to me, so we started doing research on the subject. Of course, back then, it was very difficult to even find data for testing ideas.
Q: So what did you use for data?
A: Dunn & Hargitt had the only reliable database at that time, but it still needed some cleaning. We started with that database and a couple of ideas and just kept working at it and eventually developed a program - just in time for the client who had approached us in the first place to go out of business! But along the way we were introduced to other people who wanted trading strategies, and we wound up making it into a business."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-260-268-perry-kaufman-on-market-analysis-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-260-268-perry-kaufman-on-market-analysis-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-260-268-perry-kaufman-on-market-analysis-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v126tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:06: (269-270): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13:06: (269-270): Traders' Tips
SMARTRADER
Here are the formulas to implement the system discussed in Adam White's \""A weekly S&P trading system\"" for SMARTrader. ...
This is a simple system to implement. As you can see, the highest/lowest functions are integral to building the\nsystem. The highest/lowest rows each have a suffix appended to clarify their use in subsequent rows.
TAI is the trend analysis index calculation. The buy rule is that the current highest five-bar high is greater than the\nprevious five-bar highest and the current lowest five-bar low is higher than the current 13-bar lowest. The sell rule is\nbased on the percentage at the maximum retracement value and TAI at the minimum threshold value."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-269-270-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-269-270-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-269-270-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v127lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:06: (271-273): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13:06: (271-273): Letters to S&C
THE X FILES
Editor,
In the March issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, you published a very enlightening article by Joe DiNapoli titled \""The X'd trade.\"" This was quite informative and a number of my friends have found this interesting. I would like to see more articles about details of this nature. I don't think that I will have this problem, as I am a very short-term trader and do mostly market orders. However, I am aging and will not want to sit in front of the computer for the rest of my life … at least I hope not. Understanding these \""X\"" trades may become more important, so it is of value to know what can happen.
The article in the February issue wherein you interviewed Mary Pugh and discussed the variation on CMOs was another article I found of interest. Why? It explains items that one reads about in the current press. Unfortunately, the authors of the articles assume that if you read their article, you know the underlying reasons. That is not true. Articles by DiNapoli and about Pugh are quite helpful.
I also read a letter about the stock market by a fellow named Mike Jenkins. In his letter, he explained about the \""big boys\"" in New York and trading stocks for no commission. I think your readers may find this of interest as well and it might be of interest to you to contact him. I have made a copy of his recent letter and have enclosed it [not shown ].
In closing, I found the article by Joe DiNapoli and about Many Pugh of real interest. Keep those kinds of articles\ncoming.
FRED ALPERS\nChesterland, OH"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-271-273-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-271-273-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-06-271-273-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13366tradti,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:08 (366): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13:08 (366): Traders' Tips
TRADESTATION
Several requests have been made for the code to Adam White's \""Weekly S&P trading system\"" from the June 1995 Stocks & Commodities to be translated into Easy Language. Using the QuickEditor, I coded the formula as follows:
...
\nIn preparing the code, I created two user functions based on the trend analysis index (Tai) and the retracement of the low (LowRetr): ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-08-366-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-08-366-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-08-366-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13367lettos,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:08 (367): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V13:08 (367): Letters to S&C
INTERNATIONAL CPI DATA
Editor,
I read the article titled \""The ratio of inflation rates and currency trends\"" by John Kean in the June 1995 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES. Could you please tell me where to obtain CPI (consumer price index) data, preferably in ASCII or MetaStock, for other countries besides the US?
WILLIAM L. LOWE\nTupelo, MS
John Kean suggests the following source for obtaining international CPI data:
Bureau of Economic Analysis\nUS Dept. of Commerce\nWashington, DC 20230\n202 523-0777
-Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-08-367-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-08-367-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-08-367-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v13-c09-compare-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:09 (384-387): Comparing Technical and Fundamental Analysis by Alex Saitta"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NOVICE TRADER Comparing Technical And Fundamental Analyses by Alex Saitta
Philosophically, technicians and fundamentalists appear to be at odds: One group studies underlying factors driving the market, while the other focuses on the market itself. Technical approaches count on the existence of price trends to make profitable strategies, but fundamentalists count on trends, too. Here, one\nmarket analyst reviews the differences and similarities between the two.
If nothing else, fundamental and technical analysts agree on one thing: The trends of fundamental forces are the sole reason for every long-term price trend. Bull and bear markets are the result of economic fundamentals. Historical technical data or price charts don't cause a market to trend up or down. Fundamentalists and technicians, however, do attempt to solve the same problem, identifying which way the fundamentals will push the market price next.
Here's where the two analytical methods part ways and why the approaches differ.
Generally, fundamental analysts predict which fundamental variables will be next to cause the market price to trend and whether the variables will cause an uptrend or downtrend. Technicians see two drawbacks with the fundamental approach. First of all, there are many fundamental variables that could affect the market, so technicians believe it is impossible to consistently predict which variable will drive the market price up or down. For example, demand for credit is strongly tied to economic activity, and the demand and supply of credit determine interest rate levels. Therefore, economic growth is often but not always the dominant fundamental variable in the Treasury bond market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-09-384-387-comparing-technical-and-fundamental-analysis-by-alex-saitta-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-09-384-387-comparing-technical-and-fundamental-analysis-by-alex-saitta-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-09-384-387-comparing-technical-and-fundamental-analysis-by-alex-saitta-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1340tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:09 (409-410): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""This month's Traders' Tips give MetaStock software code for the indicators in Donald Dorsey's \""Refining the relative volatility index,\"" and SMARTrader & Technifilter Plus code for Tushar S. Chande's time price oscillator."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-09-409-410-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-09-409-410-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-09-409-410-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13411lettos,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:09 (411): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C by Technical Analysis
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY REVISITED
Editor,
When I was first learning the trading business, a mentor once told me to pick a system, any system, and use it. The emphasis was appropriately placed, because actually implementing the signals from your trading system is the hard part. Professional traders know that trading is all in the mind, not the system. The trading psychology articles are among the most valuable in your outstanding magazine. Please continue publishing them.
JOHN BOLLINGER, CFA, CMT, Manhattan Beach, CA
\nMORE VOTES FOR PSYCHOLOGY
Editor,\nI am a subscriber to STOCKS & COMMODITIES. I find it very interesting and full of ideas. One of the subjects my\ncolleagues and I follow the most are the articles written by Adrienne Toghraie on trading psychology. We use the suggestions intensively in our trading and morning meetings. In Europe there are few references on this subject. Please keep publishing the psychology articles.
ANGELO AIRAGHI, Campione, Switzerland"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-09-411-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-09-411-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-09-411-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1345tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:10 (459-461): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Code for EQUIS METASTOCK is given for Steven Schinke's article \""Options spread psychology.\"" In it, he demonstrated the advantages of trading option spreads and discussed how a trader's emotions and expectations affect which option spread he or she uses for a particular market opportunity.
In addition, code for the variable moving average (VIDYA) by Tushar Chande is given for SmarTrader, Technifilter Plus, Behold!, and TradeStation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-10-459-461-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-10-459-461-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-10-459-461-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13letterstosc1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:10 Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD LIMITS
Editor,
I'm new to the markets, technical analysis and SuperCharts. I'm constantly agonizing over where to set my\noverbought and oversold limits. What I would like to do is shift them up in a clearly definable uptrend and shift them\ndown in a clearly definable downtrend. Presumably, then, an indicator such as stochastics wouldn't take me out of\nthe market prematurely.
Is my logic sound or dangerous? Should I shift or spread my overbought/oversold levels? For example, subsequent\nto a long position, should I shift my oversold 25 and overbought 75 levels to 30 and 80, respectively, or should I\nspread my oversold 25 and overbought 75 levels to 20 and 80, giving consideration to volatility?
Also, how could this be written in EasyLanguage (the programming language developed by Omega Research for its\nTradeStation and SuperCharts programs) so it would be done automatically and I could backtest it?
I thought you might have some good ideas to set me straight.
Thank you.
BRAD GREENE
Missoula, MT
Your logic appears to be sound. Test your ideas and let us know your results!--Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-10-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-10-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-10-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1349squasfu,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:11 (496-498): Squashing Functions by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Squashing Functions by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
Here's one way to mathematically transform data from one scale to another while maintaining the information content.
Those who use neural nets to model equity markets to develop a trading strategy probably use a squashing\nfunction on the individual inputs to your net. A squashing function preprocesses the data. Typical data, such as stock prices, begin with a positive number and have no upside limit. But neural networks work best with numbers that have a range. Often, one of two sigmoidal functions are used to change data from having an unlimited range to having a limited range. They have the following form:
f (x) = (e x - e -x )/(e x + e -x ); and f (x ) = 1/(1 + e -x )
where e is the base of the natural logs (that is, 2.71828). These functions vary from -1 to +1 or zero to +1, respectively. The behavior of these two functions using arbitrary numbers can be seen in Figures 1 and 2. On examination, note that the minima for the first function is near -6.4 and the maxima is near +8, while the minima for the second function is near -16 and the maxima is near +16.9. This means that in the case of the first sigmoid function, the variability of any of your data outside the range of -6.4 to +8 will be lost because the function will be reporting either -1 or +1, respectively. For the second sigmoid function, you will lose all the variability of the data that lies outside -16 to +16.9."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-11-496-498-squashing-functions-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-11-496-498-squashing-functions-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-11-496-498-squashing-functions-by-clifford-j-sherry-ph-d-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1350tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:11 (502-503): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADER'S TIPS
Do you have a custom formula, solution or user tip for your software that you would like to share? Have you ever pondered a trading question that you'd like to share with other readers? Have you ever contemplated a question for a while and come up with a solution that you'd like to share with others? Or are you still stuck without a solution?
In this month's Traders' Tips MetaStock, SmarTrader, Trade Station and TechniFilter Plus code is supplied for the Connors-Hayward volatility system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-11-502-503-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-11-502-503-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-11-502-503-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13letterstosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:11 Letters to S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects relating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication with our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Have you run across trading techniques, services or products that have proved useful? Tell us about it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would\nnot exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave. SW, Seattle, WA\n98116-4499. Letters published may be edited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not\nnecessarily represent those of the magazine. -Editor
STOCKS & COMMODITIES ON CD-ROM
Editor,
Just a note to suggest that you consider publishing back issues of STOCKS & COMMODITIES on CD-ROM. As an investment analyst, I would find that ability to conduct Boolean searches on companies, people and other topics invaluable. Time magazine published five years of back issues on their CD-ROM, \""Time Almanac 1990s,\"" and this could serve as a good model for you. No need for video or sound, just text, graphics and perhaps a few pictures. I have enjoyed your publication for years. Keep up the good work!
TED H. WESTERFIELD\nAmericus, GA
Thank you for the fine suggestion. As a matter of fact, we are now in the process of converting all our back issues to the CD-ROM format. Our completed compact disc will cover 12 years of STOCKS & COMMODITIES and will contain text, graphics and \""live\"" sidebars, where the user can jump to an Excel spreadsheet from the text through hypertext. Although a release date is not yet set, look for an announcement of our CD-ROM in an upcoming issue. -Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-11-letters-to-s-c-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-11-letters-to-s-c-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-11-letters-to-s-c-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1353tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:12 (538-540): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS' TIPS
Do you have a custom formula, solution or user tip for your software that you would like to share? Have you ever pondered a trading question that you'd like to share with other readers? Have you ever contemplated a question for a while and come up with a solution that you'd like to share with others? Or are you still stuck without a solution? Send your formulas, solutions, tips and questions to Traders' Tips, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave. SW , Seattle, WA 98116-4499.
METASTOCK FOR WINDOWS
In MetaStock for DOS, many users create macros to quickly switch from one chart to the other. Some users create a macro to switch between Smart Charts, while others use macros to apply a template when switching between charts. No macros are necessary to do this in MetaStock for Windows (version 5.1). This can be done automatically in MetaStock by clicking on the Next Security command, located on the Chart toolbar.
There are, however, a few options that change the way this feature works, including a new option that has been added to MetaStock 5.1 for Windows. These settings are changed by choosing options from the Tools menu and then going to the Chart Options page. You can see these settings in Figure 1, under the Change Security group."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-12-538-540-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-12-538-540-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-12-538-540-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v13541lettos,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:12 (541): Letters to S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc.
INTERVIEWS ARE VALUABLE
Editor,
Thank you for the excellent interviews with Joseph Stowell, Justin Mamis and Robert Krausz (STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES, July, August and September, respectively). They are correct when they say that charting by hand provides an extra level of perception. I have found that interacting with each piece of data and translating the data into form requires extra commitment, but it is an element of classical charting that has its own payoff.
I especially want to thank you for the explanation and detailed charts of Robert Krausz's balance point. I started using his technique right away and find that it gives me a reference point that is extremely helpful in both analysis and trading.
Please run more stories like these.
PHILIP AVNET\nPortland, OR"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-12-541-letters-to-s-c-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-12-541-letters-to-s-c-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-12-541-letters-to-s-c-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1652quicsig,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:14 (652): Quick-Scan: Signal Card - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Signal Card - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Are you one of those businesspeople\nwho carries their working office in a\nlaptop computer, an ear permanently\nattached to a cellular phone? Ever\nthought that you’d like to keep up with\nthe markets using your laptop? Or maybe\nyou’d like to have a dedicated machine\non your desk for the markets but don’t\nhave the room for two full-sized com-puters.\nIf you’ve ever had thoughts like\nthese, you should take a look at DBC’s\nSignalCard for laptop computers as the\nsolution."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-14-652-quick-scan-signal-card-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-14-652-quick-scan-signal-card-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-14-652-quick-scan-signal-card-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v195tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:2 (95-96): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
The following responds to numerous requests to explain how I create the bar charts with an indicator using Microsoft Excel 4. This Traders' Tips is based on the article \""Statistically Positioned Trend Channels\""\nby Bob McCullough."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-95-96-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-95-96-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-95-96-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v197lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:2 (97-98): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
Compliments, data information and spirituality are discussed in this month's letters."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-97-98-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-97-98-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-97-98-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1praudbyjoh,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:2: PR: audiTrack - by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Auditrack - By John Sweeney
Auditrack has set up a full-bore trading desk with links to actual brokerage\nfirms to simulate the trading executions that might actually be received if trades\nwere going in real time.
As it turns out, there is a way to develop trading instincts without risking $50,000 to $250,000 on a beginner.\nAuditrack has set up a full-bore trading desk with links to live price feeds and actual brokerage houses to simulate\nthe trading executions that might actually be received if trades were going in real time. Based on the fills these\nhouses provide, Auditrack performs all the accounting and reporting that a typical brokerage would to create a track\nrecord with absolutely no hindsight.
You can get called-back fills, daily recaps, daily statements, monthly statements, equity runs and CFTC/NFA\nformatted track records certified by an independent accountant. In other words, without putting in capital you might\nnot have or wish to risk, you can develop an objectively prepared, fully marketable track record through\nAuditrack's services."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-pr-auditrack-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-pr-auditrack-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-pr-auditrack-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1prreutbyjo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:2: PR: Reuters by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Reuters Money Network Platinum Service - By John Sweeney
Reuters Money Network allows you to access the information tidal wave easily\nand thoroughly.
W hat could be cozier than rolling into the office each day, popping open the paper and calmly, quietly reading\nabout the world's latest follies before comfortably scanning the financials to be reassured of one's own market\nbrilliance? It's obnoxious but bearable that you have to sift through 20 or 30 pages of Investor's Business Daily\nor The Wall Street Journal to get at what you want, so when Reality OnLine, formerly known as Reality\nTechnologies, offered to put just what I want on a screen in the familiar newspaper format (Figure 1), I was happy\nto check it out.
First, let me say that you will see less of the world's follies on Reuters Money Network. No stories of sex discrimination at Jenny Craig or unseemly \""Borkings\"" of Justice Clarence Thomas are available here, even though\nDow Jones supplies the news for Reuters Money Network. Information about the latest initial public offerings,\nsome WSJ Work Week copy or a hacker break-in at General Electric might make the headline list, however."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-pr-reuters-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-pr-reuters-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-pr-reuters-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1prvispatde,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:2: PR: Visual Pattern Designer - By John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Visual Pattern Designer\nProfessional - By John Sweeney
Visual Pattern Designer has defined pattern recognition.
Nearly everyone who's looked at a chart has, at one time or another, been intrigued with the idea of patterns in\nprices. Something in price charting attracts the eye and seductively presents patterns we feel are somehow\nrecognizable. The difficulty, though, in programming these patterns into the cold objectivity of a computer should\nsuggest to us that either the issue is more subtle than we think or our impressions are false.
Now, in a fresh look at the issue, Digital Enterprises has defined pattern recognition in two ways: summarized\ndistance between selected points (high, low, close, whatever), which is the vector quantization method, or the\nrelationships between selected points (higher highs, higher lows, for example), which is the order method. The\nlatter is the traditional approach of chartists. Digital Enterprises offers Visual Pattern Designer, which is the basic\nversion of the software, and Visual Pattern Designer Professional, which is geared toward more complex analysis.
In Visual Pattern Designer, you define a sequence with as many bars as you can fit on a screen by marking the\nbeginning and ending points, then select the method of comparison to be used (Figures 1 and 2). A fair facility for\nspecifying relationships between price points is provided and particularly in the order mode, wherein you may state\nexactly which points are to be considered and how much difference, if any, should be between them (Figure 3)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-pr-visual-pattern-designer-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-pr-visual-pattern-designer-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-2-pr-visual-pattern-designer-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v113tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (138-139): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
This month's Traders' Tip's shows how to create code for the bottom-fishing test from Tushar Chande's article (\""A market bottom pattern for the\nS&P futures\"") in MetaStock, TradeStation's Easy Language, SmarTrader, and TechniFilter Plus."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-138-139-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-138-139-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-138-139-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v155propmasf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (551-552): PR: Option Master for Newton by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Option Master for Newton - By John Sweeney
Ken Trester, probably the most sartorially accomplished, smoothest-talking options nerd I've ever met, hit nearly all my hot buttons with his idea of putting options analytics on a hand-held, go-anywhere personal digital assistant\nfrom Apple Computer called the Newton.
\""Personal digital assistants\"" (PDAs) - 4-inch by 7-inch, 1.5-pound machines - are so-called because they're meant\nto handle all your day-to-day business on the go. With these, there are no plugs to a wall to chain you to a desk,\noffice or even a car seat. These devices run along with you, instead of locking you down.
Once you've got a Newton, it stays with you. It's not quite small enough or light enough to put in your breast\npocket, but it can be stuffed into a jacket pocket. Built in are a scheduling calendar and an address book, so instead\nof lugging around a notebook computer, all you have to haul is just one little black brick.
Bad press has dogged the Newton and all the other PDAs, but nevertheless, sales continue to grow. Apple's\nnewest version, the Newton 110, is better at recognizing handwriting than the 100. Further, its batteries are said to\nlast longer. More and more software is appearing for all PDAs, especially in niche markets that can exploit the\nportability and communications capability of the devices. Most such devices can or are trying to hook into E-mail\nand fax connections. The Newton can do this, albeit somewhat clumsily as yet, but for options traders, the real\nadvantage is in bringing options assessment to the hand, not a desktop, where, in addition to everything else it may\ndo, Newton does your options calculations: pricing, probability of profit, Greeks and so forth. (See sidebar, \""The\nApple Newton.\"")"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-551-552-pr-option-master-for-newton-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-551-552-pr-option-master-for-newton-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-551-552-pr-option-master-for-newton-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1553sbopmas,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (553): SB: Option Master The Apple Newton - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""THE APPLE NEWTON - Technical Analysis, Inc.
When you hold an Apple Newton, you're holding roughly the equivalent of a full-on 486DX33. Most of that\nprocessing power goes into supporting an interface that's hand-oriented: tapping or handwriting. Some of it goes to\nthe artificial intelligence in the machine that watches you work and write in order to \""learn\"" your business and\nfacilitate it. For example, after a while my Newt learned that however I scribble or print t-o-r-i, that refers to my\ndaughter Victoria, and so it always properly capitalizes and spells her name or finds references to her in my notes,\nphonebooks, calendar and so forth."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-553-sb-option-master-the-apple-newton-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-553-sb-option-master-the-apple-newton-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-553-sb-option-master-the-apple-newton-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v156prmonbyt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (563-564): PR: Monocle by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Monocle - By Thom Hartle
There was a time when investors simply bought and held mutual funds. Today's sophisticated mutual fund\ninvestor, however, wants to be able to not only monitor but analyze, screen and rank a large group of mutual\nfunds. Today, just historical performance is not enough. Mutual fund traders want technical and quantitative tools.\nIf this description fits you, then you'll want to take a good look at Monocle by Manhattan Analytics.
Monocle is a Windows-based product that downloads from a database, then tracks and maintains information on\nmore than 1,000 mutual funds and 30 major market indices. Monocle takes full advantage of the point-and-click\nWindows interface to design, define and manage mutual fund monitoring. This program is very easy to use. If you\nfollow the tutorial in the manual, you'll be able to track and make trading decisions for mutual funds in no time at\nall.
You can start with the basic chart of a particular mutual fund and compare it to the performance of your selected\nbenchmark. For example, in Figure 1 you see the Fidelity Select Air Transportation fund compared with the\nStandard & Poor's 500. Say you want to use a technical indicator. Monocle comes with technical indicators (Figure\n2) to identify both trends and oscillators to aid you in identifying overbought and oversold situations. Check out\nFigure 3, which shows the Fidelity Select Healthcare Fund with the relative strength line compared with S&P 500.\nIt has a nifty feature, in which performance statistics are shown at the bottom of the graph. That way, whatever\nchart you peruse can show your favorite statistics."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-563-564-pr-monocle-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-563-564-pr-monocle-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-563-564-pr-monocle-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v156prstocdo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (565-567): PR: Stock Doctor Version 3.13 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Stock Doctor Version 3.13 - By John Sweeney
Steven Kearns decided to write his own package, one that would have the\nindicators he'd developed himself. The result? Stock Doctor!
Not satisfied with king-of-the-hill MetaStock's analytics, programming and optimization, Steven Kearns decided\nto write his own package. The new package would have the indicators he'd developed himself, those too difficult\nto program in MetaStock, SuperCharts or Windows on WallStreet, and it would incorporate his emphasis on\nstatistically describing the profit potential in trading.
Voilà! You get Stock Doctor!
CUT TO THE CHASE
There's little wasted motion on Stock Doctor. The trial version comes as a fully functional program that simply\nwon't work on any new data. You purchase the program by calling for a password and downloading current data\nfrom Worden Brothers (TC2000 signup is free with the purchase of Stock Doctor). That done, pop to page 8 of the\nmanual for the tutorial (most of the manual is in tutorial format) and set up the securities you want to track, whether\nthey are in MetaStock, Technical Tools or TC2000 format.\nNext, you ask the program for its buy/sell signals (Figure 1). Just by selecting a few options (sample trading rules,\ninvestment level, commissions), you're ready to get results (Figure 2)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-565-567-pr-stock-doctor-version-3-13-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-565-567-pr-stock-doctor-version-3-13-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-565-567-pr-stock-doctor-version-3-13-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v156prmesfor,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (568-569): PR: Mesa For Windows by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MESA for Windows Version 1.5 - by John Sweeney
MESA is solidly based theoretically and experientially. Further, in MESA for\nWindows, everything is done graphically.
How about a program for accurately measuring cycles (one or more) in price data, predicting futures prices\nbased on cyclic content and determining whether the market is in a trading range or trending mode? What if it\nautomatically tuned the bandpass indicator (an oscillator presented in the September 1994 STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES), showed phase so you could anticipate entry or exit and provided a spectrum so you could judge\nsignal quality?
All graphically? What would your reaction be?
MESA version 4, reviewed here in its DOS incarnation in November 1993, does all that. Loaded on your trusty\npersonal computer, MESA 4 can access many common datafile formats directly before running its automated\nmaximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA, like the product). Alternatively, data may be entered manually through\nan included subroutine. Periodicity can be anything."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-568-569-pr-mesa-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-568-569-pr-mesa-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-568-569-pr-mesa-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1646binmarm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (646): Binomial Market Model, v.A.08 - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""BINOMIAL MARKET MODEL, VERSION A.08 - Technical Analysis, Inc.
If the intricate mathematics of the options world leaves you befuddled, this program from Mantic Software can\nshow you the results of all the computations without the agony of doing it yourself. Even better, it does so\ngraphically in a live simulation.
Binomial Market Model is designed to teach you exactly what is meant by the \""volatility\"" of a stock's price and also\nhow volatility is calculated. You'll need Windows 3.1 or later and about half a megabyte of hard disk space to\ninstall on your personal computer. Installed with the computational software is an elaborate hypertextÝ article that\nexplains the math and how volatility is calculated."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-646-binomial-market-model-v-a-08-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-646-binomial-market-model-v-a-08-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-646-binomial-market-model-v-a-08-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1647qsthinv,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (647): QS: THINKS, v. 103 - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""THINKS, VERSION 1.03 - Technical Analysis, Inc.
How about a reasonably priced, Windows-compatible generic neural networkÝ builder with a good variety of\nalgorithmsÝ, rules and architectures? Been there, you say? How about one with a built-in, spreadsheet-like\npreprocessor? That might help, but for traders, generic neural network development programs are not the best bet\nany more, since there exist programs with trading indicators and even some data delivered with the program, albeit\nfor twice the money we're talking here.
That said, THINKS includes a handy couple of spreadsheet functions (add lines, delete lines, copy, data, cut data,\nerase data, paste data) that make developing training and testing data easier. There isn't a full set of calculation\nfunctions, though, so you'll probably want to use a mainline spreadsheet to manipulate your data, dumping the result to a text file that can be imported via THINKS' import feature."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-647-qs-thinks-v-103-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-647-qs-thinks-v-103-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-647-qs-thinks-v-103-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1647sbthinv,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (647): SB: THINKS, v. 103 - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""THINKS, v. 103 - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-647-sb-thinks-v-103-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-647-sb-thinks-v-103-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-647-sb-thinks-v-103-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1648qshyc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 (648): QS: HyCharts"",""caption-linebreaks"":""HYCHARTS - Technical Analysis, Inc.
HyCharts developer Ronald De Angelo describes HyCharts as a \""utility for the Dow Jones Industrial Average\n(DJIA),\"" and the program has the functional feel of a utility. HyCharts gets the job done without a lot of graphic\nfinery.
Checking Figure 1, you'll see a view of the DJIA that you might not have in front of you every day. Covering the\nperiod 1915-36, the chart, a log chart, shows relative price movement rather than the absolute prices usually\nshown. HyCharts provided not only the graphics - which could have been point and figure - but also the data. Usually, HyCharts leads you to a graph or a test of trading the DJIA itself. Charts provide daily, weekly, monthly\nand quarterly periodicity but have no interactivity (zooming, data readout or drawing)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-648-qs-hycharts-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-648-qs-hycharts-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-648-qs-hycharts-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v133letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:3 Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
Readers ask questions on the \""Option Premium Ratio article by Christopher Cadburys, specifics on software code for a variety of systems, and information on friendly trading competitions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-3-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v118tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:4 (184-186): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
You can implement the strategy from the article \""Measuring linkage\"" with the bond market, the CRB index, the Standard & Poor's 500 and the US Dollar Index in MetaStock. Trader's Tips shows you how.
The remainder of the article is devoted to providing code for the range breakout system in Alex Saitta's article for the following programs: Behold, TechniFilter Plus, SmarTrader, and EasyLanguage code for TradeStation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-184-186-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-184-186-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-184-186-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1187lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:4 (187): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
Editor,
I recently purchased one of your magazines and found the information contained in it rather complex and extensive. I do have some computer and stocks/commodities background, but here's my question: What kind of software is best for a beginner given the following criteria: buy/sell signals and ease of use?"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-187-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-187-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-187-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v157sbprmatp,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:4 (570-571): SB: PR Mathcad Plus 5.0 for Windows - By John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Mathcad has the ability to solve differential equations and handle advanced matrix operations. - By John Sweeney
Engineers, statisticians, scientists, students and analysts of every stripe make great use of scratchpads, so it was\nonly a matter of time before a digitally supported version on a personal computer became available. As it so happens,\nMathcad PLUS 5.0 is one of the leaders in the field. In addition, Mathcad PLUS has the ability to solve differential\nequations and handle advanced matrix operations, but for trading analysts, the statistical, curve fitting and transforms\n(both fast Fourier and wavelet) will be of most interest.
Those not familiar with this breed of software will need to take some time with the on-screen tutorial and the\nintroduction to the manual. It takes some acclimatization to become familiar with the order of events, editing features,\nand the display of numeric and graphic data. None of these programs have the interface issues so well resolved as\nmore commercially oriented retail programming, but then, the users aren't likely to be simple-minded, either.
Installation will eat up space on your disk, and you'd be wise to leave as much additional space as possible for\nvirtual memory use (8 MB, if not more). If you haven't toyed with this Windows feature, look in the control panel\nfile called \""386 Enhanced.\"" It installs easily, but you'll come up with errors if you haven't adjusted your memory\nmanagement.
Fortunately, there's unusual help. Technical support has faxback and automated support as well as voice. Uniquely,\nMathSoft has put some thought into its \""automated support\"" instead of just buying the hardware/software and turning\nit on. An excellent, even outstanding, organization of problem diagnoses gets you to your problem and its specific\nfix. This setup was easily the best I've ever seen. Indeed, I'd say it's the only workable \""automated technical\nsupport\"" I've ever seen!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-570-571-sb-pr-mathcad-plus-5-0-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-570-571-sb-pr-mathcad-plus-5-0-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-570-571-sb-pr-mathcad-plus-5-0-for-windows-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v157prfinpac,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:4 (572-574): PR Finance Pack for Mathematica - by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Finance Pack For Mathematica For\nWindows 2.2.3 - by John Sweeney
Using Mathematica to toy with interest rates when so many of these functions are menu items in spreadsheets\nmight strike an analyst as overkill, given the typing interface Mathematica uses.
On the other hand, Mathematica offers scientific types amenities that they like, such as the notebook-like\npresentation. Further, they don't mind fussing with capitalization, spacing, commas and FORTRAN-like\nspecification of parameters. Most of all, they want the power in Mathematica.
Mathematica, of course, is the academic world's \""killer application,\"" the program that created a new environment for\ncalculation-intensive work. Mathe-matica's ability to take someone's typed-in jottings and evaluate them immediately\non the screen, showing results, graphics and text, made data exploration and manipulation lead naturally to a better\nunderstanding of mathematical concepts.
Though imitations have appeared, Mathematica's low price, larger array of functions and balanced capabilities in\npresentation and interface have kept the program in the lead. Like its competitors, Mathematica has extended its reach\nto specialized fields by providing packages of functions designed just for that profession, in this case finance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-572-574-pr-finance-pack-for-mathematica-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-572-574-pr-finance-pack-for-mathematica-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-572-574-pr-finance-pack-for-mathematica-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v157sbprfinp,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:4 (572-574): SB: PR Finance Pack for Mathematica - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""PR Finance Pack for Mathematica - Technical Analysis, Inc.
Though we can't convey the complexity of the tools available in the Finance Pack in a simple listing, we can\ngive you a hint of the variety available..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-572-574-sb-pr-finance-pack-for-mathematica-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-572-574-sb-pr-finance-pack-for-mathematica-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-572-574-sb-pr-finance-pack-for-mathematica-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1653qsrnelm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:4 (653): QS R.N. Elliott's Masterworks - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""R.N. Elliott's Masterworks - Technical Analysis, Inc.
No one has kept the faith better than Bob Prechter. Publicity for Elliott analysis comes and goes, the number of\nsubscriptions to Prechter's newsletter rises and falls, fame and obloquy alternate (presumably in wavelike fashion),\nbut Prechter's constancy doesn't waver. From that faith, then, comes another in his series of books on Ralph N.\nElliott's writings, this one a compendium."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-653-qs-r-n-elliott-s-masterworks-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-653-qs-r-n-elliott-s-masterworks-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-4-653-qs-r-n-elliott-s-masterworks-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v123tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-13-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V13:5: (230-231): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
You can test the range breakout trading system discussed in Alex Saitta's article, \""Range breakout trading in Treasury bonds,\"" in the April 1995 STOCKS & COMMODITIES using MetaStock, and the flying Titanic syndrome of \""Making the Titanic fly\"" is implemented in the TechniFilter Plus strategy."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-5-230-231-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-5-230-231-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v13-5-230-231-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v158prodrevw,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (584-586): Product Review: WealthBuilder for Macintosh"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V14.14 (584-586): Product Review: WealthBuilder for Macintosh
It would be nice if you could find a program that intelligently handled your financial planning. It could estimate your needs and suggest tactics to get where you want to go, assuming it's possible to do so. If that's what you're looking for, WealthBuilder could help most people realize how far they are from reaching their financial goals!
WealthBuilder is promising along this line, but really, it's a front-end for Reuters Money Network. By itself, WealthBuilder is a package of small routines for figuring future values like retirement wealth, estate values and tuition costs, but its real value lies in the add-on services it provides. For instance, you'll be able to put in your investment portfolio of just about every conceivable item ranging from collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) to futures contracts, but it automatically update values for the stock options and mutual funds only. Periodic research information on a certain 5,200 stocks, 6,200 Morningstar mutual funds or 6,200 bonds can be downloaded to you monthly for $20 a month. If you just want mutual funds, that would be $13 a month."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-584-586-product-review-wealthbuilder-for-macintosh-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-584-586-product-review-wealthbuilder-for-macintosh-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-584-586-product-review-wealthbuilder-for-macintosh-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v158sepfinin,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (587-588): Septor Financial Information Service"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Septor Financial Information Service
A n active trader who's nursing an open position or waiting for a tradable to move is a nervous creature, especially if his day job prevents monitoring market actions. Though many can ignore the hijinks in their trading accounts while they're working, most cannot do so completely for fear of missing something significant. Their phone lines are open for their brokers, but they are by necessity working on something else or in a meeting when the call does come.
Quote pagers help remedy this situation: The notice comes in on an unobtrusive vibrator hooked to your belt or pocket. Assuming you remember what the alert you set was for, you must still drop what you're doing to make the call placing your order, but at least the interruption is as minimal as it can be."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-587-588-septor-financial-information-service-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-587-588-septor-financial-information-service-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-587-588-septor-financial-information-service-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v158prodrevm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (589-592): Product Review: Monocle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Monocle
Now that there are more mutual funds than there are stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), playing funds has become as popular as playing stocks. Naturally, many of the same tools are employed: frequent data update, graphic display and analysis, computation of trading indicators and construction of trading rules or systems. In this category, but focused on the top 1,000 mutual funds, is Manhattan Analytics' Monocle.
Monocle provides most of the basic functions to manage a trading program for mutual funds: screening, system definition and back-testing, though not ongoing portfolio management (gain/loss reporting, tax reports and so forth). Since we reviewed Monocle's key features in March 1995 (graphics, rank-ings), I'll spend most of the time on the trading side of Monocle."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-589-592-product-review-monocle-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-589-592-product-review-monocle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-589-592-product-review-monocle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v159prodrevq,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (593-594): Product Review: QuoTrek, version 7.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: QuoTrek, version 7.0
Data Broadcasting, a company best known for providing financial market information viac satellite/FM/cable with its Signal datafeed for professional money managers, traders and investors, has another product, a hand-held device called QuoTrek. This is another of those very convenient items for the trader who needs to know right now what's happening in the markets but wants to be mobile as well. QuoTrek provides you with real-time feeds from all the major exchanges as well as news headlines from most major news sources. You can receive live quotes on more than 90,000 issues, everything from stocks, options, indices, mutual funds, futures and futures options, foreign exchange rates, bonds, Treasuries and money market instruments. Plus, you can get sports scores, the odds and headlines."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-593-594-product-review-quotrek-version-7-0-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-593-594-product-review-quotrek-version-7-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-593-594-product-review-quotrek-version-7-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v159prodrevs,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (599-601): Product Review: Secure"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Secure
Technical analysis attempts to replace the tools of the heart with the tools of the head. That success so rarely results is grist for many mills dealing with one's agony as results diverge from dreams. Thus, we get software that allows us to back-test virtually any set of trading rules or \""games\"" that allow us to step forward through a set of data to simulate our decisions. There's also another set of software that tracks the results of our decisions: trading management software.
What we haven't gotten before, however, is software that tracks us."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-599-601-product-review-secure-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-599-601-product-review-secure-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-599-601-product-review-secure-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v159sidperfa,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (599-601): Sidebar: Personal Factors"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Personal Factors
$ecure tracks factors in your personal emotions and daily life that affect your trading. Some of these factors are hard-coded into the program and some you can define yourself. Here's a listing of what $ecure currently tracks."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-599-601-sidebar-personal-factors-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-599-601-sidebar-personal-factors-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-599-601-sidebar-personal-factors-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v160prodrevc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (602-606): Product Review: CQG for Windows, Version 1.487"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: CQG for Windows, Version 1.487
CQG once stood for Commodity Quote Graphics, but as is the norm with companies wanting to keep pace in this competitive world, CQG has evolved from focusing on providing just commodity traders with top-of-the-line computer graphics to a first-class, full-service technical package and data vendor for both domestic equity and domestic/foreign futures market traders.
CQG was started as a personal research project back in 1980 by company president Tim Mather, with the goal of linking price quotations to a personal computer to automatically chart short-term price movements. The initial project was successful enough to warrant a stronger commitment, and in 1981, a basic system was up and running for the first 20 customers. Since then, CQG has progressed from using a dedicated Epson computer for their popular TQ 20/20 system, first introduced in 1983, to today's CQG for Windows system. Their current package provides traders with real-time data and graphics display on virtually every domestic and international futures markets, as well as 1,500 optionable stocks traded on US exchanges. Today, CQG has offices in Chicago, New York, London, Paris and Frankfurt in addition to their headquarters in Glenwood Springs, CO."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-602-606-product-review-cqg-for-windows-version-1-487-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-602-606-product-review-cqg-for-windows-version-1-487-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-602-606-product-review-cqg-for-windows-version-1-487-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v160prodreve,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (607-609): Product Review: Elliott Wave Analyser"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Elliott Wave Analyser
Some investors consider Elliott wave analysis, like astrology, to be one of the more arcane areas of technical analysis. To some, the concept of waves within waves, as put forth in Elliott wave theory, crests in little more than cascades of confusion and froths of uncertainty.
The Center for Elliott Wave Analysis, manned by mainstay Richard Swannell, brings some calm to these ripples of confusion. An Elliott enthusiast of long standing, Swannell has created a Windows version of wave analysis software that can tease out the patterns from virtually any set of price data. Before EWA, few programs had taken a swing at this task and succeeded. A price tag of $1,250 isn't cheap in these days of $300 powerhouse programs, but then again, those $300 programs don't come with Elliott wave analysis capabilities. Faced with that, I was delighted to open the package and start feeding disks into S&C's Pentium 75 computer."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-607-609-product-review-elliott-wave-analyser-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-607-609-product-review-elliott-wave-analyser-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-607-609-product-review-elliott-wave-analyser-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v161prodrevt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (610-611): Product Review: Trendseeker"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Trendseeker
When you sign on to Trendseeker, the very first thing you see is this question: \""What is the statistical relationship of the index of 500 stock prices, Treasury bond yield, civilian unemployment rate and the gross domestic product over 1960 to 1994?\"" If you're responsive, you click \""Run,\"" and five minutes later, an answer pops up.
That's about as difficult as it gets using Trendseeker. You can ask this straightforward question about any four of the econometric data series compiled by the US Department of Commerce in its Business Conditions Digest . The only elaboration is that you can also select the beginning and ending years for the analysis. Selecting the data is done from a one-way scrollable window, so that's not complicated, and the complete list of data series available in Trendseeker, 270 datasets in all, appears in the back of the manual. The preformatted datasets include Treasury bond yields, stock indices, interest rates and economic data. You don't have access to the actual numbers, but the typical Trendseeker user probably won't require them."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-610-611-product-review-trendseeker-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-610-611-product-review-trendseeker-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-610-611-product-review-trendseeker-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v161prodrevm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (612-614): Product Review: Market Edge"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Market Edge
Even in this age of computer graphic displays, there's a need for a product that converts trading recommendations and technical indicators typically displayed in graphs to text, even if the information is trading advice. That's the premise of Market Edge, a black-box program that massages the numbers behind the usual technical analysis graphics, converting them to values and opinions into simple text. Market Edge is a broker's dream, highly focused on coming up with decisions and recommendations for clients in language anyone can understand. Keep in mind, though, that the program is totally technical and designed for actively trading customers or active individual retail traders."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-612-614-product-review-market-edge-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-612-614-product-review-market-edge-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-612-614-product-review-market-edge-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v161prodrevi,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (618-620): Product Review: Insider TA, version 2.10"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Insider TA, version 2.10
Volume, volume, volume! Not since technician Richard Arms introduced Equivolume charting has anyone focused as intently on volume as the developers of Stock Blocks have. Naturally, in this age of computers, they've incorporated all the results of their work into software, resulting in a program called Insider TA.
In Stock Blocks' box charting, the vertical bar on your chart is still the price; in this case, it's the high and low. The horizontal x -axis, however, is merely the sequence of days, days that grow longer on high-volume days and shorter on low-volume days. The result is a chart with\nrectangular shapes that capture price in height and volume in width - that is, boxes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-618-620-product-review-insider-ta-version-2-10-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-618-620-product-review-insider-ta-version-2-10-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-618-620-product-review-insider-ta-version-2-10-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v162prodrevw,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (624-626): Product Review: Wall Street Quest, version 1.1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Wall Street Quest, version 1.1
Performing charting and technical analysis on the Macintosh computer should be a breeze and a delight, but the fact is, nearly all technical analysis software is written for the DOS world. A few notable exceptions exist, and now, something new has entered the fray: Street Logic Software's Wall Street Quest.\nFounded in late 1995, Street Logic is the brainchild of Bob Fronabarger, an engineer and programmer who wasn't satisfied with the packages available for the Mac and decided to create his own. Although this is the traditional story for software development, the nontraditional ending is that Fronabarger not only designed the software but also put together the marketing necessary to support it with partner Paul Srimuang."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-624-626-product-review-wall-street-quest-version-1-1-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-624-626-product-review-wall-street-quest-version-1-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-624-626-product-review-wall-street-quest-version-1-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v162prodrevi,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (627-628): Product Review: Indicators & Trading Systems, Volumes 1-11"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Indicators & Trading Systems, Volumes 1-11
STOCKS & COMMODITIES contributors and writers have developed, explicated and tested a plethora of market indicators over the years, many of which have also been used in trading systems. Greg Morris, who himself has contributed articles in the past to S&C, has meticulously coded many of these indicators and systems into languages for popular charting programs, including MetaStock, Super-Charts, TradeStation and Windows on WallStreet, or for other programs that can access the code used by these programs. This collection of formulas and systems is presented in a package of 11 volumes you can purchase together or individually.
The collection also includes items from other publications as well as trading systems used by stalwarts widely known in the world of technical analysis. There are even some generic trading systems - that is, code you can copy, change and run as a completely new trading system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-627-628-product-review-indicators-trading-systems-volumes-1-11-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-627-628-product-review-indicators-trading-systems-volumes-1-11-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-627-628-product-review-indicators-trading-systems-volumes-1-11-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v162prodrevw1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (629-630): Product Review: Wall$treet Money, deluxe version"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Wall$treet Money, deluxe version
The MarketArts investment software firm was one of the earliest and swiftest in discovering the retail sales channel for investing software. Eschewing the usual advertising routes, MarketArts instead sent Wall$treet Money directly to the shelf at retail chains specializing in software and office supplies. Thus, instead of pursuing professional traders and technical analysts, it went after the market of small investors. It went local, it went national and it went international, always retail. MarketArts didn't price its product at $3,000 or even $300 but rather at $49.95, with the street price sometimes running as low as $29.95 in some stores.
MarketArts made sure the product provided most every basic investing function. In the process, it helped revolutionize investment software sales and was able to capitalize on the tidal wave of baby boomers coming into the years of their most disposable income. The product, called Wall$treet Money, is a slimmed-down version of MarketArts' technical analysis package,\nWindows on WallStreet. This review focuses on Wall$treet Money."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-629-630-product-review-wall-treet-money-deluxe-version-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-629-630-product-review-wall-treet-money-deluxe-version-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-629-630-product-review-wall-treet-money-deluxe-version-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v163prodreve,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (631-634): Product Review: Excalibur, version 2.01"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Excalibur, version 2.01
Excalibur for Windows is a software package developed by Futures Truth for testing trading systems on futures, stocks and other markets. Excalibur can test virtually any trading strategy on any market using daily and/or intraday data. In addition, Excalibur can test multiple trading systems on portfolios consisting of any market combination. While this program is one of the most comprehensive available for system testing, it will require a considerable amount of time for the user to learn the procedures for testing a favorite trading system."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-631-634-product-review-excalibur-version-2-01-22.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-631-634-product-review-excalibur-version-2-01-26.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-631-634-product-review-excalibur-version-2-01-27.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v163prodrevp,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (635-637): Product Review: P/E CD-ROM"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: P/E CD-ROM
Here's something clever: informative, institutional-quality research on CD-ROM with some entertaining features thrown in for good measure. For a subscription to P/E, an electronic magazine from Deci$ionWare, you'll receive in the mail 10 times a year a CD-ROM that plays like a television show, taking you into the offices of companies that the magazine has researched. There, you review the financials, the competitive positions, the industry, the management (via filmed interview segments) and the customers, and you'll come away with some solid research on the companies explored in each issue in an enjoyable fashion."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-635-637-product-review-p-e-cd-rom-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-635-637-product-review-p-e-cd-rom-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-635-637-product-review-p-e-cd-rom-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v163prodrevw,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (638-642): Product Review: Windows on Wall Street, version 4.0.3"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Windows on Wall Street, version 4.0.3
It used to be that software developers stuck to their knitting when creating code, but now a new, more aggressive type of programmer is coming to the forefront. Instead of simply programming software for a particular vertical application (say, for widget manufacturers, doctors' offices or for stockpicking), developers are taking the bull by the horns and defining how that work should be done, or at least explaining how it's done.
MarketArts even goes beyond that formula in Windows on WallStreet Pro by creating a program it calls \""your complete personal investment solution.\"" By this tag line, MarketArts means it has provided for both technical and fundamental information to be delivered to you through its software. Given its background, MarketArts' products are likely to be more oriented to the technical side of things, but in Windows on WallStreet Pro, it has arranged to present both technical and fundamental information in one graphic display, as well as provide convenient \""snapshot\"" tables of current company information."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-638-642-product-review-windows-on-wall-street-version-4-0-3-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-638-642-product-review-windows-on-wall-street-version-4-0-3-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-638-642-product-review-windows-on-wall-street-version-4-0-3-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v164prodrevw,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (643-645): Product Review: Wall Street Analyst, version 2.1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Wall Street Analyst, version 2.1
Now here's some inexpensive, useful software! With competition increasing in the technical analysis software niche, prices have fallen rapidly and goods delivered have risen dramatically in quality. In the thick of it all comes a charting and technical analysis package from Omega Research with a price tag of just $70 (typical street price, $50).
The software is for the broadest possible base of investors. What's more, investors can get a good look at it in a free special edition, the Wall Street Analyst SE freeware version, which is also the newest version of Wall Street Analyst. The program can be downloaded from the Internet address listed at the top of this review, or you can receive a complimentary copy of the program on compact disc by calling or faxing Omega Research. The compact disc version of the free special edition includes up to five years of historical and fundamental data for all US and Canadian stocks, US mutual funds and two years of futures contracts. Version 2.1 on compact disc contains up to 25 years of data. The data on the CD can be seamlessly merged with data downloaded through Dial Data. The freeware version is a limited version of Wall Street Analyst with fewer indicators. There's no time limit on use of the freeware, but the datafeed that provides complimentary data from Dial Data expires after a 30-day trial period."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-643-645-product-review-wall-street-analyst-version-2-1-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-643-645-product-review-wall-street-analyst-version-2-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-643-645-product-review-wall-street-analyst-version-2-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v164sidin,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (643-645): Sidebar: Indicators"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Indicators
This is a list of indicators used in the software program Wall Street Analyst."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-643-645-sidebar-indicators-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-643-645-sidebar-indicators-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-643-645-sidebar-indicators-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v164prodrevi,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (647-648): Product Review: InterQuote Internet quote service"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: InterQuote Internet quote service
How would you like to get real-time, continuously updated quote screens very inexpensively, in as little as 30 minutes over the Internet? What if the quotes could be delivered in a spreadsheet or quote screen format? Or even Quicken format? What if the quotes were free for the first 15 days, and maybe $650 a year thereafter? Suppose the service threw in a free end-of-day portfolio summary delivered via E-mail? Could you stand it?
Well, launch your browser software and visit one of the most efficiently organized quote services I've seen thus far on the Internet. But before you visit the site, send E-mail (any message will do, because any E-mail to this address automatically gets sent the same packet of information) to info@interquote.com - a complete overview will quickly be autoreturned. When I went to browse the site, signup for the service was so easy I immediately decided to stay. I received my log-in password a few minutes later. Now this is responsive, electronic customer service! I quickly entered my symbols and got my portfolio up and running (less two symbols Interquote couldn't find) in a few minutes. That fast, I was in business."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-647-648-product-review-interquote-internet-quote-service-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-647-648-product-review-interquote-internet-quote-service-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-647-648-product-review-interquote-internet-quote-service-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v164prodrevt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (649-654): Product Review: TradeStation version 4, Build 15"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: TradeStation version 4, Build 15
When it comes to real-time trading system development and implementation software, Omega Research dominates with its TradeStation product. Developed from a trading system creator called SystemWriter, TradeStation has evolved into a do-everything behemoth of software (for instance, how many programs arrive with six manuals?), Omega's flagship product and one with little competition at its price point. Version 4.0 refines the dominant beast that TradeStation has become, cleans up some bugs and integrates Omega's newest product features.
TradeStation's forte is its system testing and automation. Its sister products down the price chain are SuperCharts ($295) and Wall Street Analyst ($49 retail). Both of these do many of the things that TradeStation does but lack, respectively, Easy Language (the system testing development environment) and some indicators and charting features. TradeStation was once the only real-time product in Omega's arsenal, but SuperCharts went real time in August 1996. All three come with Omega's massive 25-year equity and mutual fund database of price and fundamental history (three years for futures)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-649-654-product-review-tradestation-version-4-build-15-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-649-654-product-review-tradestation-version-4-build-15-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-649-654-product-review-tradestation-version-4-build-15-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v164sidsolpr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (649-654): Sidebar: Solution Providers"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Solution Providers
One great strength of TradeStation is the elaborate network of developers who build products dependent on TradeStation. Omega Research has constructed a comparatively open platform that other people can use to enhance its features or build features that Omega could never justify developing. As just one small example, fluent custom programming for Easy Language is frequently listed in the Omega solution providers catalog. In the course of this review, I had the\nopportunity to briefly check out some of these vendors. Included in this sidebar is a quick summary of a few of\nthem."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-649-654-sidebar-solution-providers-22.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-649-654-sidebar-solution-providers-26.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-649-654-sidebar-solution-providers-27.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v165prodrevo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (655-659): Product Review: Option Pro On-Line, version 2.1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Option Pro On-Line, version 2.1
Have you been considering trading options intraday? Are you of the belief that you not only know where the market is headed but also when you should amplify or dampen the expected move (or lack thereof) with an exchange-traded derivative?
Even after years of availability and all the information published about their use, options still aren't a wildly popular vehicle of choice for the everyday investor because they're complicated, difficult to track and often have sporadic liquidity. In short, options trading is a much more intense activity than a simple buy-and-forget-it investing approach. Even so, the list of optionable stocks and futures grows constantly, involving at times more than 50,000 symbols to track and trade. With those numbers, someone out there must be interested in options!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-655-659-product-review-option-pro-on-line-version-2-1-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-655-659-product-review-option-pro-on-line-version-2-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-655-659-product-review-option-pro-on-line-version-2-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v165sidevyou,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (655-659): Sidebar: Evaluating Your Computer's Data Capacity"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Evaluating Your Computer's Data Capacity
Before trading options online, traders must first consider whether they have the data signal and computer power necessary to process and store real-time options data. The number of optionable issues grows daily, and even though Signal doesn't transmit data on options that aren't trading at least 100 contracts a day, your computer and data server must still handle a large volume of data. In fact, you should count on having at least 16 MB of RAM (32 MB would be even better) in your DOS-compatible PC, plus 100 MB of space on your hard drive, particularly if you let the Signal data server automatically create symbols for you, which you probably should do. Otherwise, prune your symbol lists weekly to reduce the processing load on your machine."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-655-659-sidebar-evaluating-your-computer-s-data-capacity-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-655-659-sidebar-evaluating-your-computer-s-data-capacity-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-655-659-sidebar-evaluating-your-computer-s-data-capacity-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v166prodrevm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (660-661): Product Review: ModelQuest, version 4.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: ModelQuest, version 4.0
Since 1994, AbTech’s unique information modeling approach has crossed the product review desk twice before, in mid-1994 and early in 1996. In those appearances, we’ve noted that AbTech’s product has been a hit for its speed (32-bit capable) and convenience as well as its conception.
AbTech’s ModelQuest – previously known as “StatNet” – is unique in that it builds a network along the familiar lines of a neural network, but the network’s nodes are not the weights a neural network would create. Nor does one manage the number of layers in the network or the number and weight of the nodes. Instead, AbTech’s product, by brute force, tries all the possible network combinations of the regression functions it has at its disposal, starting with the simplest network layout and working up to the most complicated. You can watch this fascinating process on the screen as the network is assembled and disassembled before your very eyes."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-660-661-product-review-modelquest-version-4-0-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-660-661-product-review-modelquest-version-4-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-660-661-product-review-modelquest-version-4-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v166prodrevq,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (662-663): Product Review: Quote Monkey, version 2.11"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Quote Monkey, version 2.11
When you turn on a car, it runs. Right? You don’t worry about the diodes or the camshaft. If you bought the car following what most car buyers look for, it runs economically, delivering transportation for the lowest possible price.
Quote Monkey is like that economical car: You turn it on and it runs. No fooling around. It even has icons (with balloon explanations) you can understand. When you turn Quote Monkey on for the first time, it searches your hard drive for all the account directories with MetaStock, CompuTrac data files, creating portfolios. It can also set up portfolios of ASCII files that it can update, files that ASCII-reading software like Excel can use. It grabs the symbols it recognizes and is ready to download and update them all."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-662-663-product-review-quote-monkey-version-2-11-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-662-663-product-review-quote-monkey-version-2-11-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-662-663-product-review-quote-monkey-version-2-11-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v166prodrevc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (664-665): Product Review: CATS"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: CATS
There was an era in American technical analysis when creative individuals wrote and published unique software that captured their view of how to trade the markets, regardless of whether their view was commercial. Today, Europe and Asia are full of folks new to the field, writing fresh software and developing new techniques. One such developer, Richard Hexton, has created a trading program, Chart Analysis Trending System (CATS), for the FTSE 100, index futures that trade on LIFFE. Having traded and run it successfully in real time for four years, Hexton has also extended the logic to the dollar/Deutschemark cross rate, currency cross-trading being more familiar and popular in Europe than in the United States.
CATS is a trend identification program that is also designed to allow your writing options at support and resistance points. Though developer Hexton did go through a phase of buying options, reality soon dictated that writing them, especially at reliable levels of support and resistance, was more lucrative. CATS serves this function by first noting changes in trend and then highlighting likely levels of support and resistance."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-664-665-product-review-cats-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-664-665-product-review-cats-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-664-665-product-review-cats-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v166prodrevb,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (666-669): Product Review: Behold!, version 2.5.3"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Behold!, version 2.5.3
Behold! is a unique program, aside from the fact that it lives only on Macintosh computers (although it can integrate with or run on an IBM-PC with the help of another program; more on that later). Everything about the program revolves around the job of creating, analyzing and trading technical trading models. From the moment you start it up until you put away your last model, your whole attention is focused on defining or refining a trading model in the kind of integrated environment usually used for intensive software programming.
For example, when you start out, you don't load a datafile; you load a trading model, even if it's a new one. The trading model comes with a chart window, a spreadsheet window already loaded and a trading rules window, and possibly, a test results window. This assemblage makes it possible to interactively change the computations you've constructed, see the results on the chart, and test the new formulation with a simple command-T. This makes iterative development very fast, especially since the program itself is very fast, even on an older 68030 or 68040 Mac."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-666-669-product-review-behold-version-2-5-3-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-666-669-product-review-behold-version-2-5-3-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-666-669-product-review-behold-version-2-5-3-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v166sidbehfu,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (666-669): Sidebar: Behold! Functions"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Behold! Functions
The following study functions are available in Behold!. \""Price\"" refers to any data column in the worksheet. You may refer to past data by appending to Price [n ] where n is a positive number. (The calendar function will accept -1 as n .) \""Period\"" is the length of a study period, such as the length of a moving average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-666-669-sidebar-behold-functions-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-666-669-sidebar-behold-functions-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-666-669-sidebar-behold-functions-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v167mesver19,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14.14 (670-674): MESA96, version 1.9"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: MESA96, version 1.9
Even though engineer and software developer John Ehlers has marketed his MESA (Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis) software for 14 years, he still comes up with refinements on a regular basis. For MESA96, he's built in adaptive window length, a modification in the way the program identifies the trend mode, and a gizmo called the sine wave indicator.
Before I elaborate, recall that the identification of cyclic content in a series of market prices was hindered by the need for lots of data until the development of a concept referred to as maximum entropy spectral analysis in 1975 by John Parker Burg, a concept he put forth in a doctoral thesis. In 1978, John Ehlers, an aerospace signals engineer, adapted the technique to market data so that 20 to 60 days of data were needed\nrather than the year or more necessary when applying a fast Fourier transform for data analysis. The MESA technique as implemented by Ehlers has since become a quantitative standard for cyclic analysis of prices. In fact, the technique (both Ehlers's trademarked version and other generic forms) can be found today in many technical analysis programs. However, traders who buy the MESA96 package to implement the maximum entropy technique get more bells and whistles, including spectral contour plots and 10-day price projections based on cycle analysis, than ever before. In addition, all the innovations certain to be added by Ehlers in future versions will be available for the price of a product upgrade, which runs about half the current product price."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-670-674-mesa96-version-1-9-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-670-674-mesa96-version-1-9-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-670-674-mesa96-version-1-9-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v14-c01-options-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:1 (37-42): Robert R. Prechter Jr. on the Elliott Wave Principle by Thom Hartle"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V14:1 (37-42): Interview: Robert R. Prechter Jr. on the Elliott Wave Principle by Thom Hartle
It's inevitable: Anyone who enters into the realm of technical analysis runs into a reference to the Elliott Wave Principle sooner or later. Whether you're an adherent or a skeptic, the Elliott wave is certainly one of the best-known methods by which to analyze the markets. Robert Prechter, who is considered to be the world's leading authority on the Elliott Wave Principle, is president of market forecasting and publishing firm Elliott Wave International and is also the author of a number of books on the subject and editor of two monthly forecasting publications, The Elliott Wave Theorist and Global Market Perspective. Prechter began his career in the financial markets as a technical market specialist with the Merrill Lynch market analysis department before he struck out on his own to concentrate on Ralph Nelson Elliott's work. Here, Prechter shares his views on the outlook for the stock\nmarket, commodities, the economy and more.
It's human nature to be influenced by the actions of the crowd, particularly in emotionally charged settings. … The crowd behaves the same way in every market cycle. Some trends last longer than others and some travel farther than others, but the psychological progression through each bull and bear market is\nalways the same. - Robert Prechter"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-1-37-42-robert-r-prechter-jr-on-the-elliott-wave-principle-by-thom-hartle-20.gif"",""height"":""264"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-1-37-42-robert-r-prechter-jr-on-the-elliott-wave-principle-by-thom-hartle-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-1-37-42-robert-r-prechter-jr-on-the-elliott-wave-principle-by-thom-hartle-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv150t,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:1 (50-52): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS' TIPS
TRADESTATION
To create the divergence index in Matt Storz's \""Quantifying Divergence with the Divergence Index,\"" you must first\ncreate two User-Functions, PeakDivergence and TroughDivergence. The code for both is listed below. Be sure you\ncreate and verify these before you build the indicator. Since I have built them as User-Functions, you can now call\nthese functions from any other study or system without having to recreate the code.
Type: User-Function\nName: PeakDivergence\nInputs: Strength(NumericSimple), OSC(NumericSeries);\nVars: Hc(0), Hp(0), Hh(0), HL(0), Ic(0), Ih(0), Ip(0), IL(0);\nValue1=SwingHigh(1,High,Strength,Strength+1);\nIf Value1<>-1 then begin\nHp=Hc;\nHc=Value1;\nIp=Ic;\nIc=OSC[Strength];\nHh=Value2;\nHL=Value3;\nValue2=Highest(High,Strength+1);\nValue3=Lowest(High,Strength+1);\nIh=Value4;\nIL=Value5;\nValue4=Highest(OSC,Strength+1);\nValue5=Lowest(OSC,Strength+1); ..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-1-50-52-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-1-50-52-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-1-50-52-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
stoccomv153l,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:1 (53): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
MOVING AVERAGE WINDOW\nEditor,\nI have been reading S&C now for about a year and have spent a lot of time understanding some of the trading\nsystems presented in the magazine. I have also spent time actually setting them up with data in Excel. In your April\n1995 issue was a really interesting program submitted by Alex Saitta for range breakout trading in Treasury bonds. I\nhope to try it in real-time trading soon.\nMy question is actually a rather generic one having to do with comparing current trading data to some historical\ncalculation. Mr. Saitta defines how he determines if the market is trading in a narrow, tight window, Rule 1a. A long\nposition is to be established (and several other rules also met) if the current day range is 125% of the average daily\nprice range of the last eight days. My question in calculating the eight-day average is: Does the calculation of the\neight-day average include today or the eight days prior to today?\nI have always had the same question in relation to a current day closing being above or below some moving average.\nIs the current day excluded or included in calculating the moving average?\nThis is a fundamental question that I have never seen a discussion on but is key to setting up many formulas. I would\nappreciate your comments.
JON RODGERS\nTokyo, Japan
To answer your first question, yes, today's data is included in the calculation of the eight-day moving average. The\nanswer to your second question depends on how the trading system is designed and what your specific goals are.\nMost trading methods include the current day's activity when calculating today's indicator values, such as in a\nmoving average. A trading system can be designed such that price levels for entry and exit can be estimated, and if\ntoday's closing price is above or below the estimated level, then the system will enter the appropriate position on the\nclose that day. However, if you plan to perform market analysis after the close each day, then the trading system\nshould reflect this fact. Test the system so that data analysis is based on today's closing price with today's indicator\nvalues, but assume the position will be established based on the following day's opening price.-Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-1-53-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-1-53-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-1-53-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v146tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:10 (460-461): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS' TIPS
METASTOCK FOR WINDOWS
The K-ratio model, which is discussed in Editor Thom Hartle's interview with Nelson Freeburg, is a\ntechnique used by Freeburg to generate signals in the precious metals market. The K-ratio model is based on\nthe ratio of Barron's Gold Mining Index (GMI) to gold bullion, over which Bollinger bands are plotted to\ngenerate adaptive signals that conform to patterns of price behavior in the precious metals market.
To recreate Freeburg's precious metals switch fund system in MetaStock for Windows, you must first create\nthe K-ratio as a composite security. To do this, launch The DownLoader from Meta-Stock and choose New\nand then Composite from The DownLoader's File menu. Make sure the directory specified is the directory\nwhere your weekly GMI and Handy & Harman data are located. Name the composite \""K-ratio,\"" then choose\nthe Barron's GMI as the primary symbol and Handy & Harman prices as the secondary symbol. Next,\nchoose Divide as the operator and then click the OK button to add the composite.
Open the K-ratio chart in MetaStock, plot the Bollinger bands indicator and enter 46 for the number of periods\nand 2.3 for the standard deviations. Plot Bollinger bands again and enter 4 for the periods and 1.6 for the\nstandard deviations. Your chart should look similar to the one in Figure 1."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-10-460-461-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-10-460-461-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-10-460-461-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v146lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:10 (462-463): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc.
Editor,
I'm so glad I subscribe to STOCKS & COMMODITIES. What great reading from great minds! I would like\nto encourage Tushar Chande to write more articles describing his ideas. I enjoyed his past articles in S&C and I would like to read more. I also enjoy any article that deals with trading longer-term positions, such as\nweekly charts.
EUGENE T. McENERY III\nvia E-mail
TESTING AND HARD WORK: KEYS TO SUCCESS
Editor,
Technical analysis and trading systems are often considered pseudo-sciences. One reason for this reputation is the widespread use of misapplied scientific methods such as curve-fitting and the use of anecdotal examples as proof. Another reason is that technical analysts sometimes act as though they're members of a secret society or modern-day guild, who believe they have special technical analysis secrets that only they know, and that allows them to garner abnormally high profits from the markets. The truth is, most of the so-called secrets, or trading ideas and techniques, are already in the public domain. What's difficult is determining which of the trading systems in the public domain work and which don't. This work requires testing the various systems and analyzing the results on out-of-sample data.
I believe it's possible that someone could give away a great system for free, and yet the lemming crowd -those\ntraders who hunt for the Holy Grail instead of working, testing and perfecting the ideas they already\nhave - would completely ignore it, not placing any value in a system that didn't cost a large sum of money. In\nmy opinion, many trading systems that have been presented in STOCKS & COMMODITIES can give as good\nresults as any high-priced system you can buy. In a secret guild, the obvious is dismissed because it's not\nsecret and thus is deemed valueless. The \""secret guild\"" mentality perpetuates the myth that if something is free\nor obvious, it can't possibly be any good.
DENNIS MEYERS\nChicago, IL\nmeyersx@enteract.com
See Dennis Meyers's \""The siren call of optimized trading systems\"" in this issue. In this article as well as in\nhis past articles, he presents the results of rigorous system testing. -Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-10-462-463-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-10-462-463-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-10-462-463-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v149trantrad,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:11 (494-496): Transforming Trader Self-Talk by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Transforming Trader Self-Talk by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Traders can talk themselves into disastrous losing scenarios. Here are the steps to avoid the problem.
Self-talk controls your trading destiny. Self-talk is that inner voice that interprets what is happening and how you feel about it. Your self-talk can be positive, optimistic and encouraging so that it gives you the energy and confidence to stay the course in the face of\nthe most overwhelming odds. Unfortunately, however, most of the traders with whom I have worked, regardless of their level of success, engage in negative self-talk, which results in their failing to achieve their ultimate potential.
Negative self talk is destructive, demoralizing and depressing. So why engage in it? It is a habit. As humans, we like to confine ourselves to familiar patterns, even when they are negative. The familiar is comfortable and predictable, and even when painful, it is what we know. And for traders, comfort is not risking failure in new territories. You can keep losing in areas in which you are familiar."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-11-494-496-transforming-trader-self-talk-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-11-494-496-transforming-trader-self-talk-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-11-494-496-transforming-trader-self-talk-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v150tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:11 (505-507): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS’ TIPS
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed\nby various developers of technical analysis software to help\nreaders more easily implement some of the strategies presented. Internet users will also find these and past Traders’\nTips on our home page at http://www.traders.com.
METASTOCK FOR WINDOWS
To recreate the Pathfinder currency trading system (described\nin the October 1996 interview with Nelson Freeburg)\nin MetaStock for Windows, open two charts, one of the\ndesired currency and the other of Treasury bonds. For this\nexample, I used the Swiss franc. Choose Tile from the\nWindow menu so both charts are visible. Drag the T-bonds\nprice bar and drop it on the heading of the currency chart.\nYour currency chart should now have T-bonds plotted in the\ntop inner window of the chart. Click on the T-bonds plot in the\ncurrency chart so it’s selected (that is, little squares appear on\nthe price bars). You will need to select the T-bonds plot each\ntime before running a system test. The selected plot tells the\nMetaStock System Tester what to use for \""P.\"" Next, choose\nSystem Tester from the Tools menu, and then New to create\na new system. Enter the following system rules, stops and\noptions and then run the test."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-11-505-507-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-11-505-507-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-11-505-507-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v154tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:12 (544-546): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
This month's selection of Traders' Tips include code in MetaStock, TradeStation, SmarTrader, TechniFilter Plus, and WAVEWI$E for the 2/20-day EMA breakout system as described by David Landry."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-12-544-546-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-12-544-546-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-12-544-546-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1547lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:12 (547): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
This month's letters discuss possible flaws in the May 1996 STOCKS & COMMODITIES article \""Presidential parties and the stock market,\"" calculating chi-square and historical volatility."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-12-547-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-12-547-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-12-547-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1549quicpps,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (549): Quick-Scan: PPS Trading System"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick-Scan: PPS Trading System
Even though the PPS trading system is built on technical analysis, some of the fundamental information about the tradability of different commodities is probably worth the cost of PPS Trading System to the novice who believes the leverage available in the commodity markets is the way to quick riches."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-549-quick-scan-pps-trading-system-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-549-quick-scan-pps-trading-system-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-549-quick-scan-pps-trading-system-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1550quicliv,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (550): Quick-Scan: Live the Dream by Profitably Day Trading Stock Fut"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick-Scan: Live the Dream by Profitably Day Trading Futures
This is one of those rare books about trading that is written by someone who actually trades, makes money doing it and even displays his account reports to prove it."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-550-quick-scan-live-the-dream-by-profitably-day-trading-stock-fut-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-550-quick-scan-live-the-dream-by-profitably-day-trading-stock-fut-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-550-quick-scan-live-the-dream-by-profitably-day-trading-stock-fut-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1551quicsch,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (551): Quick-Scan: Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick-Scan: Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis
Jack Schwager, one of the leading contributors of quality, educational books in the futures industry, has brought out another important contribution in Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis. Schwager, who has authored some of the definitive works in the field (A Complete Guide to the Futures Market; Market Wizards; The New Market Wizards and Schwager on Futures: Fundamental Analysis), has penned another excellent reference for technically based futures traders looking for insightful material."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-551-quick-scan-schwager-on-futures-technical-analysis-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-551-quick-scan-schwager-on-futures-technical-analysis-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-551-quick-scan-schwager-on-futures-technical-analysis-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1552quicmom,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (552): Quick-Scan: Momentum"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V14:13 (552): Quick-Scan: Momentum
The price of data is getting very reasonable these days. How about six years of the world of US equities for $60 a year? How about NYSE, AMEX and OTC plus the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) back to 1897 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 since 1928? Plus more than 1,000 mutual funds? By the time you read this, historical data on more than 40 futures will also be included. Talk about reasonable!"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-552-quick-scan-momentum-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-552-quick-scan-momentum-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-552-quick-scan-momentum-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1553quicstr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (553): Quick-Scans: Street Smarts"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick-Scans: Street Smarts
Experienced traders will tell you that successful trading is similar to running a business. And in order to run a business, you need to have capital, working experience and, perhaps the most important item, a business plan. A good business plan is a strategy complete with the steps to success outlined so you know what to do and when. Street Smarts, a compilation of trading strategies and market research, would fill the bill for any trader wanting specific information for developing their own trading style."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-553-quick-scans-street-smarts-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-553-quick-scans-street-smarts-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-553-quick-scans-street-smarts-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1554quicsca,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (554): Quick Scans: Turtle Trading Concepts"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick Scans: Turtle Trading Concepts
The “Turtle Trading Concepts” video and accompanying literature is Russell Sands imparting the lessons he has learned from both his turtle training (Sands was one of the original “turtles” in Richard Dennis’s experiment in teaching successful trading) and his experience in the markets. Those who are willing to spend both the time and money have much to learn from his time in the game."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-554-quick-scans-turtle-trading-concepts-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-554-quick-scans-turtle-trading-concepts-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-554-quick-scans-turtle-trading-concepts-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1554quicas1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (554): Quick-Scans: Astro-Trend 1996 Forecast & Trading Manual"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick-Scans: Astro-Trend 1996 Forecast & Trading Manual
Financial astrologists use planetary alignments to determine windows of trading opportunity. If that’s your cup of tea, then Norman Winski has put together a report of upcoming key dates of planetary alignments for you to use. The report was published in August 1995 and offers Winski’s outlook for commodity markets into the first quarter of 1997."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-554-quick-scans-astro-trend-1996-forecast-trading-manual-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-554-quick-scans-astro-trend-1996-forecast-trading-manual-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-554-quick-scans-astro-trend-1996-forecast-trading-manual-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1555quicwin,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (555): Quick-Scan: The Winning Edge"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick-Scan: The Winning Edge
The subtitle, How to Use Your Personal Psychological Power to Succeed in Trading and Investing, clearly gives the direction of this work. Both Jake Bernstein and Adrienne Laris Toghraie were educated in the field of psychology; Bernstein has gone on to become a well-known futures trader, seminar speaker and prolific author, while Toghraie has stayed out of the markets as a trader but concentrates her practice on those who are in the business of trading. Even if their names were not at the beginning of the chapters each wrote, it would not be difficult to ascertain who wrote which. Bernstein's chapters cover subjects such as the rules for traders, trading the news, losses, action and overcoming trading barriers, while Toghraie's chapters cover topics such as self-sabotage, emotional volatility, trust, courage and the whole-brain trader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-555-quick-scan-the-winning-edge-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-555-quick-scan-the-winning-edge-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-555-quick-scan-the-winning-edge-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1556quicint,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (556): Quick-Scan: The Intuitie Trader"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick-Scan: The Intuitie Trader
Intuitive traders are at peace with themselves and the world. To the thinking of author and trader Robert Koppel, intuitive traders are those who are at the top of their game. They achieved this status because they have done what it takes to put them at the top of their game. They have learned - or rather, they have devoured - every aspect of their activity and made it so thoroughly a part of themselves that they no longer have to think about what or why they are doing it. All they must do is concentrate on what must be done, and then do that something to the best of their ability. They can speak the language without first translating it in their heads. Otherwise, by the time it was translated, even if the translation were absolutely perfect, it would be too late to accomplish the best possible performance. They must know intuitively, without thought or question, exactly what the situation demands and when so as to maximize their results."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-556-quick-scan-the-intuitie-trader-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-556-quick-scan-the-intuitie-trader-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-556-quick-scan-the-intuitie-trader-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1557quicopf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (557): Quick-Scan: Options for the Stock Investor"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick-Scan: Options for the Stock Investor
By now, you'd think the subject of options trading would have been thoroughly beaten to death. There are, by now, long-time classics in the field and the mathematics involved are no longer mysterious, supplemented as they are by copious software. James Bittman thought there was more to be said, particularly since he'd been teaching actual options traders, retail and commercial, on behalf of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) since 1983. He'd actually heard the questions that traders who weren't options gurus were asking, and he decided to point out something that had been largely neglected: the use of options to achieve investment objectives rather than using them as speculative tools."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-557-quick-scan-options-for-the-stock-investor-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-557-quick-scan-options-for-the-stock-investor-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-557-quick-scan-options-for-the-stock-investor-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1558quicsim,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap13prodre"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:13 (558): Quick-Scan: Simulated Trading Competition"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Quick-Scan: Simulated Trading Competition
How'd you like to have some trading fun on the cheap? The easy answer is to sign up with TradeComp's Futures Trading Simulations. If you have some aggressive bones in your body, sign up with their periodic competitions. They don't cost much, they're highly realistic and they generate all the emotions you'll get when tossing real dollars around, at least initially.
But first, the educational aspect: While the profit potential of futures trading is huge, many traders toss their capital into the market before they're properly prepared, resulting in frequent, dramatic, emotional and financial losses. TradeComp provides practical and objective experience. You trade your simulated account in real time, trying to avoid pitfalls such as overtrading, greed, fear and failure to pull the trigger."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-558-quick-scan-simulated-trading-competition-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-558-quick-scan-simulated-trading-competition-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-13-558-quick-scan-simulated-trading-competition-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v155prodreva,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14 (559-560): Product Reviews: AIM StatNet, version 3.0"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Reviews: AIM StatNet, version 3.0
For neural net enthusiasts, StatNet is a welcome addition to their modeling toolkits. This version provides new trading indicators and functions and combines linear regression capabilities with neural network building.
As the fascination with neural networks continues to grow among traders, a sure sign that the neural network software industry has matured, is the focus these days on speed and convenience. With this version of AIM StatNet statistical network modeling software, AbTech is confronting these issues head on with a 32-bit program designed to speed up its already speedy Windows version. To boot, they've thrown in new node types, the ability to construct polynomial expressions with up to 20 terms, a redesigned manual and improved tutorials."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-559-560-product-reviews-aim-statnet-version-3-0-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-559-560-product-reviews-aim-statnet-version-3-0-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-559-560-product-reviews-aim-statnet-version-3-0-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v156prodrevt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14 (561-564): Product Reviews: Top Step Bonds, version 2.1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Reviews: Top Step Bonds, version 2.1
Top Step Bonds from MicroStar is a real-time trading system that allows you to perform historical testing, alter parameters, update automatically and print trade results in a variety of detail.
Perhaps you're a day trader. There you are, addicted to the screen, dependent on the charts, trying to anticipate the floor's next move. Maybe it would be better to approach the markets with a system, you think. And a trading strategy. The system should have some kind of track record, you think. The trading strategy should make sense. The system should hook up to a good datafeed and update itself. It wouldn't require copious amounts of historical data but would come with enough to get started. Setup should be as automatic as possible."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-561-564-product-reviews-top-step-bonds-version-2-1-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-561-564-product-reviews-top-step-bonds-version-2-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-561-564-product-reviews-top-step-bonds-version-2-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v156prodrevs,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14 (565-567): Product Reviews: S-Plus, version 3.2"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Reviews: S-Plus, version 3.2
Sometimes, there's nothing like a power tool to really drill into a problem. Power tools can give you a tremendous rush, a fantasy of omnipotence that can last for hours. In data analysis, exhilaration is in short supply, so when a program like S-PLUS comes along, it quickly gains ardent adherents.
S-PLUS from Statistical Sciences, Inc. (StatSci), is a program for exploring and analyzing data and creating\nfunctions. If you haven't the faintest idea of what exploratory data analysis is, let me warn you: We're delving here into realms rarely broached in public discourse, topics such as shuffling numbers more intricately, more efficiently, more graphically, more arcanely and as far out on the leading edge of statistical analysis as you dare to venture."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-565-567-product-reviews-s-plus-version-3-2-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-565-567-product-reviews-s-plus-version-3-2-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-565-567-product-reviews-s-plus-version-3-2-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v156prodrevp,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14 (568-570): Product Reviews: Pattern Recognition Workbench, version 2.1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Reviews: Pattern Recognition Workbench, version 2.1
W ith statistics software, it can be difficult to get all the tools you need in one package. Pattern Recognition Workbench (PRW) from Unica Technologies may be the answer to that dilemma. This mathematical modeling program is designed to help the user solve problems and find patterns in financial data. It offers statistical, machine learning and neural network capabilities for classifying patterns and estimating functions in an integrated environment."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-568-570-product-reviews-pattern-recognition-workbench-version-2-1-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-568-570-product-reviews-pattern-recognition-workbench-version-2-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-568-570-product-reviews-pattern-recognition-workbench-version-2-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v157prodrevo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14 (571-574): Product Reviews: OmniTrader, version 2.1"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Reviews: OmniTrader, version 2.1
What if we got together maybe 50 trading systems and traded them against all the stocks in the universe? Or what about all the futures? Who cares what they did, just look at the result! And if we took the top systems and ranked them against today's numbers, wouldn't we come up with some winning trades? We'd have to! Wouldn't we?
Well, here's your chance. Nirvana Systems has assembled, not 50, but 80 trading systems and surrounded them with all the paraphernalia of testing and running them in the real world. Just point OmniTrader at the data you want checked, click the start button and OmniTrader will run through the whole dataset with each system, compute the results and rank the winners for you. Move to a signals function and OmniTrader will tell you which tradables are currently in the go mode. And if that's not enough for you, call Nirvana for more systems. Volumes 3 and 4 of their library will supply 14 more systems."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-571-574-product-reviews-omnitrader-version-2-1-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-571-574-product-reviews-omnitrader-version-2-1-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-571-574-product-reviews-omnitrader-version-2-1-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v157sidbartr,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14 (571-574): Side Bar: Trading Systems"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Sidebar: Trading Systems
Here's a partial list of the systems used by OmniTrader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-571-574-side-bar-trading-systems-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-571-574-side-bar-trading-systems-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-571-574-side-bar-trading-systems-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v157prodrevw,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14 (575-577): Product Review: WaveWi$e Market spreadsheet, version 6l36"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V14:14 (575-577): Product Review: WaveWi$e Market spreadsheet, version 6l36
Developing software these days is mostly a marketing issue, what with the price of expert programming and therefore the dominance of those who can afford it. Therefore, it's refreshing to run across finely crafted products like WAVE WI$E that inexplicably cost less than the grind-it-out mass-marketed powerhouses.
In WAVE WI$E, developer Jerome Technology, rather like a custom British motorcar manufacturer, puts out a precision product that gets right to the true analyst's desire to see and manipulate the actual numbers rather than credulously gawk at a colored line on a computer's screen. Though its name doesn't suggest it, WAVE WI$E is a spreadsheet-like product that's been geared to the trader's needs. Now, in addition, if there's something missing, WAVE WI$E supports DDE linkage to Excel (or Lotus 1-2-3), where the panoply of today's spreadsheets' power is available."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-575-577-product-review-wavewi-e-market-spreadsheet-version-6l36-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-575-577-product-review-wavewi-e-market-spreadsheet-version-6l36-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-575-577-product-review-wavewi-e-market-spreadsheet-version-6l36-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v158prodrevt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14 (580-583): Product Review: Telescan Investor's Platform"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V14.14 (580-583): Product Review:Telescan Investor's Platform
Committed as I am to trading technically, it's still tempting to feed on fundamental information, remembering the popular old saw, \""Find trades fundamentally, enter them technically.\"" (Never mind that when fundamentals finally do evince themselves, technical indicators will be tripped.) More likely, it's valuable to be able to winnow down the thousands of trading candidates to those deserving special attention.
As it happens, Telescan's search facilities are so powerful that winnowing is hardly necessary. Telescan can routinely search everything in its databases and get the job done in seconds. Candidates identified can then be scoped out with in-depth fundamental reporting supplemented by a fair amount of technical analysis, all within one platform. To get an idea of how this works, I signed on to Telescan in early December 1995."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-580-583-product-review-telescan-investor-s-platform-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-580-583-product-review-telescan-investor-s-platform-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-580-583-product-review-telescan-investor-s-platform-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v159prodrevm,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14 (599-601): Product Review: Market Skill-Builder"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: Market Skill-Builder
Trading is becoming a recognized skill that can improve with practice. Along this line of thought, Market\nSkill-Builder provides a realistic environment for practicing trading decisions by using real historical data (altered so as to be unrecognizable), through which you advance one bar at a time while choosing your next trade.
Market Skill-Builder is designed to teach you to beat the markets using judgmental technical analysis (that is, by reading the charts), a task that could be a tall order. Though developer Richard King specifies that it's impossible to forecast the markets using just charts or by analyzing just fundamentals, he does argue that a trader using technicals will find out immediately if he's wrong, while someone using only fundamentals may not discover they're wrong for a very long time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-599-601-product-review-market-skill-builder-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-599-601-product-review-market-skill-builder-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-599-601-product-review-market-skill-builder-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1zacanwaton,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:14(578-579): Zack's Analyst Watch on Internet"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V14.14 (578-579): Product Review: Zack's Analyst Watch on Internet
Hustling amid the electronic crowd elbowing onto the Internet is Zacks Investment Research, a long-established firm whose reports compiling the forecasts and recommendations of literally thousands of analysts have long been a staple of the investment world - on paper. Now this material is online and partly interactive.
Zacks Analyst Watch gives those equity investors who follow the favored 5,000 firms that Zacks covers and who can use its Internet site the ability to screen for good buys, pull up Zacks' eight-page reports on those found and monitor their portfolio positions on a daily, weekly or monthly basis by E-mail."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-578-579-zack-s-analyst-watch-on-internet-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-578-579-zack-s-analyst-watch-on-internet-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-14-578-579-zack-s-analyst-watch-on-internet-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v163basforst,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:2 (63-64): Basis for Stock Worth by William N. Hosley"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V14:2 (63-64): Basis for Stock Worth by William N. Hosley
Estimating a company's value can be the initial filter for identifying trading opportunities. Here's a method to determine a company's value based on earnings growth rates and interest rates.
How much is a stock worth? The answer is simple: Whatever someone is willing to pay. That reply, while true, leaves a great deal to chance and provides nothing in the way of the advantage that all stockpickers seek. A theoretical value of a stock can be a valuable benchmark. In conventional accounting, the value of a stock is the present worth of the sum of all future earnings (per share) of the company discounted by an appropriate rate of interest.
However, the theory requires a forecast of the future earnings of a company. For a company with an established track record, there are some fairly straightforward methods to obtain at least a ballpark forecast of earnings. Determining an appropriate discounting interest rate can present a problem as well. Nevertheless, this theory and the application described presents another useful tool to help identify under- and overvaluations, not only for individual\nissues but the whole market."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-2-63-64-basis-for-stock-worth-by-william-n-hosley-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-2-63-64-basis-for-stock-worth-by-william-n-hosley-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-2-63-64-basis-for-stock-worth-by-william-n-hosley-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v191tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:2 (91-94): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS TIPS
METASTOCK FOR WINDOWS
To create a MetaStock chart containing the indicators discussed in Dennis Meyers's article, you must first collect data\nfor the Standard & Poor's 500, the Dow industrials, advancing issues, declining issues, new highs and new lows.\nAfter collecting this data, you need to create a composite security of advancing issues and declining issues in The\nDownLoader. To create the composite, choose new and then composite from the file menu in The DownLoader.\nNext, choose advancing issues as the primary symbol, declining issues as the secondary symbol, subtract as the\noperation and then enter a name for the composite security.
Start MetaStock and load charts for the advancing issues-declining issues composite, the S&P 500, the Dow\nindustrials, new highs and new lows. Choose tile from the window menu or from the toolbar so all charts are\nvisible. Click on the indicator builder button and enter the following three indicators:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-2-91-94-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-2-91-94-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-2-91-94-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v195lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:2 (95): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
ENTERING AN ARRAY IN EXCEL
Editor,
I am writing for clarification on the article \""Smoothing data with less lag\"" in the February 1994 issue of STOCKS &\nCOMMODITIES. On page 68 is a listing for formulas calculating the DEMA2 and MACD. The formulas for cells J2\nand K2, which calculate a 26-week regression, are indicated to be identical. Figure 3 displays a number for cell K2,\nwhich does not correspond with the formula. An identical issue exists for cells J5 and K5. Please advise the correct\nformula for both cells K2 and K5.
DAVID HADLEY\nConcord, CA
The single formula is entered into cells J2 and K2 as an array. Please check your manual for instructions on how to\nenter formulas as an array. -Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-2-95-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-2-95-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-2-95-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v113tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:3 (138-140): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS' TIPS
TRADESTATION
Alex Saitta's simple method of confirming a price cross of the moving average with an increase in volume (\""A price-and\nvolume-based system,\"" elsewhere in this issue) is equally simple to test with both SuperCharts and\nTradeStation. The code below should be written in the quickeditor. Type the corresponding line of code into the\ncondition box of the editor and select the enter or exit on close order; be sure to define the two inputs. The first input\nof length will have a default of 20 to represent the length of the moving average, while the second input is length2\nwith a default of 10, the average of the volume."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-3-138-140-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-3-138-140-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-3-138-140-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1141lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:3 (141): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN AUSTRALIA
Editor,
I received my November 1996 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine and noted the addresses of the\nvarious professional organizations in the Letters to S&C column. Missing from the list was the Australian Technical\nAnalysts Association, GPO Box 2774, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia. President: Merril Armstrong\n(+61-2-2310011); public relations: Tony Reeves (+61-2-299-7858). The fax number is +61-2-6347772. We have\nbranches in each state, a fantastic monthly newsletter, monthly meetings and annual conferences. We extend an\ninvitation to any members of like organizations and to your readers to visit our meetings and especially the\nInternational Federation of Technical Analysis (IFTA) 1997 conference in Sydney.
RICHARD WATKINS
Glenbrook, Australia
Thank you for writing.-Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-3-141-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-3-141-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-3-141-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v119tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:4 (190-191): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS' TIPS
Do you have a custom formula, solution or user tip for your software that you would like to share? Have you ever\npondered a trading question that you'd like to share with other readers? Have you ever contemplated a question for\na while and come up with a solution that you'd like to share with others? Or are you still stuck without a solution?
Send your formulas, solutions, tips and questions to Traders' Tips, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California\nAve. SW , Seattle, WA 98116-4499. Please send a hard copy and, if possible, the information on a disk in\nunformatted ASCII along with your name, address, and phone number.
METASTOCK FOR WINDOWS
Here's how to use MetaStock to create market thrust, the MT-line and the thrust oscillator, three market timing\nindicators found in Tushar Chande and Stanley Kroll's The New Technical Trader.
Market thrust calculates the products of advancing issues and advancing volume, as well as declining issues and\ndeclining volume. This provides the daily advancing thrust, or power of the move, minus the declining thrust, thus\nproviding a clear picture if the market is advancing on greater volume or more stocks, or both. The MT-line is the\ncumulative value of market thrust and provides the equivalent of a volume-based advance-decline line. The thrust\noscillator compares relative volume flows, has a bounded scale and has the same scale for up and down days.\nFurther information on all three indicators can be found in The New Technical Trader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-4-190-191-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-4-190-191-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-4-190-191-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v119lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:4 (192-193): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects relating to technical analysis\nand this magazine. This column is our means of communication with our readers. Is there something you would\nlike to know more (or less) about? Have you run across trading techniques, services or products that have proved\nuseful? Tell us about it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would\nnot exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave. SW, Seattle, WA\n98116-4499. Letters published may be edited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not\nnecessarily represent those of the magazine.-Editor
FIELD OF DREAMS
Editor,
I find myself buying each issue of your magazine primarily to read the psychology section. Adrienne Toghraie's\narticles especially attract my interest. I seem to share the problems of so many of the traders she writes about.\nHowever, her last article, \""The unfinished system,\"" nearly finished me off! It was like receiving a message in the\ncornfield: \""Build it and profits will come. Keep building it, and profits will never come.\"" Thank you.
MAX RIAZI"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-4-192-193-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-4-192-193-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-4-192-193-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v123tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:5 (237-238): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS TIPS
Do you have a custom formula, solution or user tip for your software that you would like to share? Have you ever pondered a trading question that you'd like to share with other readers? Have you ever contemplated a question for a while and come up with a solution that you'd like to share with others? Or are you still stuck without a solution?
Send your formulas, solutions, tips and questions to Traders' Tips, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave. SW , Seattle, WA 98116-4499. Please send a hard copy and, if possible, the information on a disk in unformatted ASCII along with your name, address, and T-phone number.
METASTOCK FOR WINDOWS
To duplicate Dennis Meyers' gold and silver bond fund system (\""The gold and silver bond fund system,\"" elsewhere in this issue) in MetaStock, first you'll need to collect data on the Fidelity Government Bond Fund (FGOVX) and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX) gold and silver index (XAU). After collecting the data, open both charts in MetaStock for Windows. Drag the XAU and drop it on the heading of the FGOVX chart. Your resulting chart should look similar to the one in Figure 1. Select the XAU in the bond fund chart by clicking your mouse button until the little square handles appear on the XAU. Next, choose System Tester from the Tools menu and enter the following formulas:"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-5-237-238-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-5-237-238-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-5-237-238-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1239lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:5 (239): Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""LETTERS TO S&C
The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects relating to technical analysis\nand this magazine. This column is our means of communication with our readers. Is there something you would\nlike to know more (or less) about? Have you run across trading techniques, services or products that have proved\nuseful? Tell us about it. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would\nnot exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave. SW, Seattle, WA\n98116-4499. Letters published may be edited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not\nnecessarily represent those of the magazine. -Editor
MANAGED FUTURES
Editor,
Would you be so kind as to advise where I can locate a list of currently available futures funds or fund managers\n(advisors)? I have been unable to obtain this information from reviewing recent issues of your publication and I am\ninterested in obtaining information regarding investment in managed futures. Thanks.
ROBERT AVIS\nFresno, CA
For information on managed futures and managed futures funds, try contacting the Managed Futures Association\n(MFA) at PO Box 761, Palo Alto, CA 94302, 415 325-4500, fax 415 325-4944. -Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-5-239-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-5-239-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-5-239-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v128tradtipt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:6 (282-283) Traders' Tips - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""TECHNIFILTER PLUS
The set of TechniFilter Plus formulas called \""OBV disparity trading system\"" produces a TechniFilter Plus strategy\nthat implements the trading system presented in Phillip Holt's \""Enhancing on-balance and negative volume\"" in\nthis issue. In the article, Holt computes a ratio of two Bollinger %B calculations, one based on price and one based\non a volume indicator (either the on-balance volume or the negative volume index). A %B calculation based on\nprice expresses the position of the closing price within the upper and lower Bollinger bands. A value of \""1\"" places\nthe close at the top band, and a value of zero places the close at the bottom band. Values between zero and 1\nplace the close somewhere between the bands. If the close is outside the bands, the %B value will be less than zero\n(below the bottom band) or more than 1 (above the top band).
The basic %B calculation divides the close minus the bottom band by the distance between the bands. Since the\nupper band is two standard deviations of price above an average and the lower band is two standard deviations of\nprice below this average, the distance between the two bands is just four standard deviations of the price. Formula\n1 gives the %B price calculation. The \""33\"" listed is the time parameter suggested by Holt. Formula 2 is the %B\ncalculation based on OBV, represented by the building block K . (To test NVI instead of OBV, replace \""K\"" with\nthe NVI building block B in this formula, and change the parameters in formulas 4 and 5 to 0.95 and 1.1,\nrespectively.) Formula 3 is Holt's on-balance volume disparity indicator (OBVDI). He suggests buying and selling\nwhen a four-unit average of this quantity breaks through specific levels. Formulas 4 and 5 express these buy-sell\nconditions, returning a \""1\"" when the condition is true and a zero otherwise."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-6-282-283-traders-tips-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-6-282-283-traders-tips-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-6-282-283-traders-tips-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosctec1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:6 Letters to S&C - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""DISCOUNT BROKERAGE SERVICE
Editor,
I'm an Italian subscriber and TradeStation user and I'd like to start trading soon. My problem is finding a\ndiscount brokerage service that allows me to trade in CBOT and LIFFE markets directly via keyboard from Italy.\nI know the names of some discount brokers in the US, but none of them seem to offer this kind of service. I know\ndiscount brokerages exist with online service in the US, but I don't know if I can use them from Italy. I'd\nappreciate it if you could help me locate a list of international discount brokerages with this kind of service.\nBARONI GABRIELE Fidenza, Italy
I'd suggest checking the Internet for resources. Online brokerages are starting to spring up, and maybe someone\noffers an international discount brokerage service allowing you to place trades online. However, I have to\nstrongly emphasize that you look for good security and reliable confirmation of trades. -Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-6-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-20.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-6-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-6-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1331tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:7 (331): Traders' Tips - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADERS TIPS - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, INC.
METASTOCK FOR WINDOWS
Here's how to implement the alpha indicator using bonds and the Fidelity Select Chemical Fund\nas described in Frank Ritchie's article, \""An alpha indicator for bonds.\"" First, open charts of\nTreasury bonds and the Fidelity Select Chemical Fund (FSCHX) and choose Tile from the\nWindow menu so that both charts are visible. Drag the price plot from the FSCHX chart and\ndrop it on the heading of the T-bond chart. The T-bond chart should now have one inner\nwindow with T-bonds and another inner window with the Fidelity Select Chemical Fund."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-331-traders-tips-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-331-traders-tips-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-331-traders-tips-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosctec,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:7 Letters to S&C - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""V14:7 Letters to S&C - Technical Analysis, Inc.
SWING LINE CHARTS
Editor,
I would appreciate any information you have on swing line charts. Also, do you know of a charting system that shows this type of chart?
I'm not referring to oscillators but to a type of chart that W.D. Gann used. In Gann's day, he updated his charts by hand using this technique, and in comparison to his other techniques, it was simple to understand. It also appealed to me because it potentially could\nimprove my own cash management of a trade - when to enter or exit a trade.\nDAVID BLUE Nelson, New Zealand
I can't tell you which software draws swing line charts, but I can refer you to two articles that explain how to create them. \""Gold: bull or bear market?\"" appeared in the March/April 1983 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Volume 1. \""Anatomy of a Trade: December Treasury Bonds\"" appeared in July/August 1983 issue, also in Volume 1. Both articles were by Jesse Thompson. Our Volume Books (compilations of past issues) can be obtained from our circulation department, 800 832-4642.
-Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1prodrevquo,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:7 Product Review Quotes Plus"",""caption-linebreaks"":""V14.14 (621-623): Product Review: Quotes Plus
The availability of securities data is growing daily. Never in shortage, it now abounds, and the updating is getting so efficient that there's little excuse for not finding the ideal trading vehicle for your money. Quotes Plus, for example, comes with a CD-ROM whose mountain of 9,300 equities and indices (no mutual funds) you install on your hard drive, subsequently to be updated by phone calls to the Quotes Plus bulletin board (BBS) or over the Internet. The \""Plus\"" part of Quotes Plus is a very nice technical screening facility with functions and technical indicators to help you find trades."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-product-review-quotes-plus-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-product-review-quotes-plus-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-product-review-quotes-plus-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1prodreved,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""chap14quicsc"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:7 Product Review The Edge"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Product Review: The Edge
How would you like a program that would incorporate stock data from CompuServe, notify you by pager if price or technical limits were touched, search the data for hot stocks and give you some charting and analysis as well? That's The Edge, a product from the fertile mind of Peter Muller of BulletProof Corp. The Edge is a program that evolved from Muller's own investment activity, gradually developing into a complete, if individualized, way of finding, assessing and managing trades.
The Edge features a scheduler, which, if left running, will carry out the action you've programmed at the time interval of your choice. You can program in events such as automatic price updating at selected time intervals, news story retrieval, price exporting and other activities. It posts these event updates to the program's datafiles, and if it matches anything in which you've indicated interest, it will notify your paging service or send you E-mail notification. The quotes are delayed by 15 minutes and the program will have a delay you build in yourself by setting the download times, so the action will not be in real time."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-product-review-the-edge-20.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-product-review-the-edge-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-7-product-review-the-edge-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v137tradtipt,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:8 (370-371): Traders' Tips - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders Tips - Technical Analysis, Inc.
TECHNIFILTER PLUS
In \""Historical volatility and pattern recognition,\"" Laurence Connors and Linda Bradford Raschke combine a historical volatility ratio with some short-term patterns to spot potential price moves. Here's a set of\nTechniFilter Plus formulas that will filter for these situations.
Formula 1 is the historical price volatility ratio. It compares the five-day standard deviation of the logarithm of the one-day price change ratio to the 99-day version of the same calculation. Connors and Raschke suggest using six-day and 100-day periods, but TechniFilter Plus uses five and 99 in its standard deviation calculation to reproduce the same values (since 100 days yield 99 one-day changes). Formula 2 is 1 if today is an inside day and zero otherwise. Formula 3 is 1 if today is an NR4 day (narrow range 4 pattern) and zero otherwise. Formula 4 is 1 if the volatility ratio is less than 0.5 and today is either an inside day or an NR4 day. Thus, a 1 in column 4 marks the days when a market move is expected according to this strategy."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-8-370-371-traders-tips-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-8-370-371-traders-tips-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-8-370-371-traders-tips-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1373lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:8 (373): Letters to S&C - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""MORE SYSTEM REVIEWS
Editor,
You have a great 'zine and I have been a subscriber for a long time.\nOne suggestion: Review more systems that are advertised in S&C. The good ones need to have their horns\nblown, while some of the garbage out there needs to be shown for what it is. I am a system junkie and if there\nare any good, new systems out there that I'm missing, I would like to hear about them. Most traders are\nsystem players of some sort, so please add more system reviews to your already fine magazine. Thanks.\nED HEXTER, Lauderhill, FL
Thank you for your comments. To properly review a trading system, a considerable amount of time must be\ninvested, because a system's performance needs to be measured over complete market cycles to get a fair\npicture of how well it performs. At Stocks & Commodities, we concentrate our resources on providing you\nwith the tools and know-how you need to develop trading methods. We don't review systems for which the\nmethodologies aren't disclosed, because that wouldn't be in accord with our editorial mission. Our goal is to\ngive you the skills to trade effectively, and if you can't know the trading rules, you can't improve your\nknowledge.\nOn the other hand, I encourage authors and prospective authors to send in articles that detail trading systems\nand that include performance tables. We are interested in publishing this type of research.
--Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-8-373-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""259"",""width"":""200""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-8-373-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-8-373-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v141tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:9 (411-412): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc.
METASTOCK
Here are the MetaStock formulas for calculating the indicators used in my article, \""Standard error bands\"":\n21 period regression slope...
TECHNIFILTER PLUS
Here are the TechniFilter Plus formulas for the indicators used in \""Standard error bands\"" in this issue. You can use these formulas to display the bands on bar charts.
The first formula, STD_ERR, is the standard error calculation. The parameter 21 is the period used in the regression analysis. The second parameter, 19, is the first parameter minus 2. The second formula, LSF_PSE, is the top band, which is the least-squares-fit (LSF) line plus 2 multiplied by the standard error. The third parameter is the number of\nstandard errors added to the LSF line. The last formula, LSF_MSE, is the bottom band, which is the least-squares-fit line plus 2 multiplied by the standard error."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-9-411-412-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-9-411-412-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-9-411-412-traders-tips-by-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1413lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-14-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V14:9 (413): Letters to S&C - Technical Analysis, Inc."",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc.
SOMETIMES SIMPLE IS BETTER
Editor,
First, I want to send you all my best compliments for the magazine and for all the articles you feature, which I read every month with great interest and attention, especially the articles about trading psychology, which in my opinion is a matter of the same importance as any trading technique.
I am a private, part-time trader. In your 1996 Bonus Issue, I read the article by Nelson Freeburg, \""Evolution of a timing model.\"" The section concerning the 4% swing system I found of great interest because of the simplicity of the technique. In many articles you feature, your contributors explain that it's not necessary for a trading technique to be complicated to give good results, but rather, on the contrary, it's the simple techniques that seem to be the secret for the most profitable trades.
Please advise me in which issues of S&C or other publications I can read about simple, mechanical systems to trade.
Thank you and go forth with your great magazine!\nCIABATTI ALESSIO Florence, Italy
We have published many, many articles that present simple techniques or mechanical trading systems. Keep reading S&C each month for new techniques. Past STOCKS & COMMODITIES articles are available in book form by year or on CD-ROM, which has the advantage of a sophisticated search feature for locating specific topics. -Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-9-413-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-21.gif"",""height"":""261"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-9-413-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v14-9-413-letters-to-s-c-technical-analysis-inc-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v151tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:1 (51-52): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
Code for the ADRrs-NH-NL system as described by Dennis Meyers in “A daily A-D new high-new low market\nsystem,” as well as the indicators that plot the ADRrs, Nhstrand NL Nlstr lines, are provided for TradeStation, WaveWi$e, TechniFilter Plus and SMARTrader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-1-51-52-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-1-51-52-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-1-51-52-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v147tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:10 (472-474): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""METASTOCK
“On using volatility bands” by Ahmet Tezel and Suzan\nKoknar-Tezel introduces two different volatility band trad-ing\nsystems, one system using bands based on moving\naverages and the other based on regression bands. To plot the\nmoving average asymmetric volatility price bands (MAAVPB)\nin MetaStock for Windows, simply plot Bollinger bands\nusing 11 periods and 1.7 standard deviations. Then click your\nright-mouse button while the cursor is over the lower band\nand choose properties. Change the standard deviations to 2.\nThis plot will now appear exactly as the bands discussed in\nthe article.\nTo plot the regression asymmetric volatility price bands\n(REGAVPB) in MetaStock for Windows, simply plot standard\nerror bands using 21 periods, one for standard errors and one\nfor the smoothing periods. Then click your right-mouse\nbutton while the cursor is over the lower band and choose\nproperties. Change the standard errors to 1.5.\nTo recreate the systems in MetaStock for Windows, choose\nSystem Tester from the Tools menu. Next, choose New and\nenter the following trading rules and stop conditions. After\nentering this information, choose Options and change the\ntrade delay to 1, then change the Trade Price to Open. If you\nhave MetaStock 6.5, enter the first set of formulas. MetaStock\n6.5 allows variables that will allow you to change the periods\nwhen testing much more easily."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-10-472-474-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-10-472-474-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-10-472-474-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosc3,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:10: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""MECHANICAL SYSTEMS
Editor,\nExcellent article on the relative strength\nindex by John Sweeney in the September\n1997 issue! Has STOCKS & COMMODITIES\npublished any articles on\nmechanical systems using relative\nstrength index (RSI)? Can we look forward\nto future articles from John\nSweeney on on-balance volume (OBV)\nand moving averages (MAs)?\nBROOKS RIMES - via E-mail
\nSee this issue for an article on the on-balance\nvolume by Technical Editor\nJohn Sweeney. Moreover, see my article\nin the upcoming November 1997\nissue for an article on using RSI as an\nindicator of trend. —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-10-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-10-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-10-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c11-addingt-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:11: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""The editors of S&C invite readers to submit their opinions and information on subjects\nrelating to technical analysis and this magazine. This column is our means of communication\nwith our readers. Is there something you would like to know more (or less) about? Have you\nrun across trading techniques, services or products that have proved useful? Tell us about\nit. Without a source of new ideas and subjects coming from our readers, this magazine would\nnot exist.
Address your correspondence to: Editor, STOCKS & COMMODITIES, 4757 California Ave.\nSW, Seattle, WA 98116-4499, or E-mail to editor@Traders.com. Letters published may be\nedited for length or clarity. The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily\nrepresent those of the magazine. -Editor
NOVICE TRADER NOTEBOOK
Editor,
The information you have made available\nin the Novice Trader Notebook at\nyour Web site has been very helpful.\nWill the section be completed in the\nnear future?
EDWIN PEOPLES\nvia E-mail
The Novice Trader Notebook will be\nadded to in the next few months as we\nfind time, so keep checking in at\nwww.Traders.com! -Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-11-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-11-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-11-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v15-c14-pr659-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-14"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:14 (659-662): Product Review: OptionStation, version 1.2 by John Sweeney"",""caption-linebreaks"":""OptionStation, version 1.2 by John Sweeney
As our current bull market\ndraws more and more in-vestors\nand speculators,\noptions volumes have\nsurged. Volume on the\nChicago Board of Options Exchange\n(CBOE), for example, is growing by\nmore than 20% a year, and its OEX and\nSPX vehicles accounted for 92% of the\nUS index options market in 1996. Concomitantly,\noptions evaluation software\nhas proliferated. OptionStation has been\nout for about a year now, and, after having\nundergone several revisions, is now a\ngenuine competitor in what was formerly\na niche market. Omega Research now\npackages it with SuperCharts Real Time,\nwhich is included as a component.
What do you get in OptionStation?\nFor starters, an options calculator. After\nyou download end-of-day or real-time\ndata, it figures the profitability, volatility\nand sensitivity of a proposed or existing\noptions position. OptionStation,\nthrough the server or downloader, does\nallow storing of any historical data the\nuser cares to store. Through the\nSuperCharts component, the user can\nperform volatility studies that access\nand use historical data.
Now, the most important question:\nHow well does the program perform\noptions analytics? When evaluating a\nposition, options traders want to know\nwhat’s likely to be profitable and how\nsensitive an options position is to the\nmost likely market changes. Options\ntraders want software that quickly finds\nprofitable alternatives (assuming you\ndon’t have those in mind already) and\nanswers sensitivity questions quickly\nand clearly."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-14-659-662-product-review-optionstation-version-1-2-by-john-sweeney-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-14-659-662-product-review-optionstation-version-1-2-by-john-sweeney-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-14-659-662-product-review-optionstation-version-1-2-by-john-sweeney-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosc4,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-1"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:1: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
Several readers wrote to S&C in response to Dennis Meyers’s article, “The siren call of optimized trading\nsystems,” in the October 1996 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, and Meyers himself wrote a lengthy respose to the various questions."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-1-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-1-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-1-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v196tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:2 (96-98): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented.
In the August 1996 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, an article by Thom Hartle titled “The market facilitation index” showed how to color chart bars to identify chart patterns based on changes in the market facilitation index and volume. In this month's Tips, code is given demonstrating how to do this using MetaStock 6.0’s new Expert Advisor.
Code is also provided for Adam White's article \""The derivative moving avereage\"" in TradeStation; Larry Williams's on-balance volume for stocks (SWAD) and his advance/decline of price (WAD2) in SMARTrader'; Jeremy Konstenius' technique from \""Combining trend and oscillator signals\"" in TechniFilter Plus; and a WAVEWI$E study displaying lunar/solar eclipses and new/full moon cycles against the Dow Jones Industrial Average."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-2-96-98-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-2-96-98-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-2-96-98-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
noname2,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-2"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:2: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
Readers comment on Dennis Meyers article that appeared in the October 1996 issue. Meyers reported some results from optimization performed on a randomly generated price series that he created."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-2-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-2-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-2-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v114tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:3 (140-142): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented.
Code has been provided for Richard Goedde’s article, “Market timing with the regression oscillator,” in MetaStock; Dennis Meyers' article \""A new utility average tock market system\"" in TradeStation, TechniFilter Plus and WAVEWISE; and a technique called STARC bands in SMARTrader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-3-140-142-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-3-140-142-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-3-140-142-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosc5,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:3: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
Letters this month include one responding to Jeffrey Katz and Donna McCormick’s December 1996 article\ntitled “A rule-based approach to trading,” and the Dennis Meyer article published in the January 1997 issue."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-3-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-3-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-3-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v119tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:4 (194-197): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented.
Code is provided for Alex Saitta’s “Bonds, price momentum and trends” in TechniFilter Plus, SMARTrader, WAVEWI$E; and Tushar Chande's \""The cumulative market thrust line\"" in TradeStation."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-4-194-197-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-4-194-197-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-4-194-197-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosc6,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:4: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
S&C readers voice their opinions on the historical volatility debate, the Futures Liquidity column, Mark Douglas' interview, and trading options futures."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-4-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-4-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-4-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosc7,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:5: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
Topics this month range from inflation and interest rate questions in response to the interview with Alex Saitta in the March 1997 issue to Robert Krausz's article titled “Dynamic multiple time frames.\"""",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-5-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-5-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-5-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v128tradtip1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:6 (285-286): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders' Tips
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented.
\nJay Kaeppel’s simple trading system described in the May issue is based on the crossover of two simple moving averages (SMAs), filtered by the crossover of the closing price and a longer SMA. The code for this system is supplied for SMARTrader, TradeStation, TechniFilter Plus, WAVEWI$E, and MetaStock."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-6-285-286-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-6-285-286-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-6-285-286-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosc8,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:6: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
The editor provides further information on technical analysis accreditation programs and additional reading on the Point and Figure technique."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-6-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-6-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-6-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v132comandma,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:7 (323-328): Computers and Market Analysis by Gregory L. Morris"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Are you just starting out as a technical trader? Or are you a\nveteran who wouldn’t mind a refresher course on the basics?\nHere’s a primer for the novice and a reminder for the veteran\ncovering points of interest, including computer hardware,\nsoftware and data.
by Gregory L. Morris
Computers have drastically changed market analysis simply\nby making almost all analysis techniques available to any-one\nwith a computer. Many believe that this could very well\nbe why some tried-and-true methods don’t seem to work\nanymore; computers have made these methods available to all, leading to overuse. Then again, the power of the computer leaves many people wondering what areas of analysis exactly they should focus on. The power of the computer certainly has been responsible for what’s referred to as paralysis from analysis! The gap between analysis and action is ever widening. The bottom line? The computer is simply a tool — albeit a fast and powerful one — but it is not the Holy Grail. It is not the ultimate solution to the challenges of trading the markets.
Giving careful thought when you choose your tools, however,\nis still an important step. I’ll try to provide you with a\nworking knowledge of computers and the analysis software\nthat drives them. While some sophisticated traders may not\nagree with me, what I present here results from having been\nactively involved in computers and analysis software since\nthe late 1970s. I have been programming computers since\n1968 and bought my first personal computer in 1979, an\nApple ][ with eight kilobytes of RAM, a black-and-white\ntelevision for a monitor, and a cassette recorder for storage. While I have tried to eliminate any personal bias, after all these years my attitudes have been shaped by my experiences."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-7-323-328-computers-and-market-analysis-by-gregory-l-morris-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-7-323-328-computers-and-market-analysis-by-gregory-l-morris-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-7-323-328-computers-and-market-analysis-by-gregory-l-morris-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v133tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:7 (332-334): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADESTATION
In the article “Rainbow charts,” author Mel Widner introduces\na colorful technique for plotting an oscillator to signal trend changes. The oscillator is derived from a consensus of trends that, when plotted in color, has the appearance of a rainbow.
Using a few studies and functions in TradeStation, the rainbow lines and rainbow oscillator can be developed in\nEasy Language. As always, the functions should be devel-oped\nfirst. For the indicators themselves, special formatting\nis required for each. An outline of the recommended format\nis given after each set of indicator code.
Below is the Power Editor code for the first function,\n“Rainbow.” This function performs the basic calculations for\nthe moving averages that make up the rainbow. ...continuded"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-7-332-334-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-7-332-334-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-7-332-334-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosc1,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-7"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:7: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""POINT & FIGURE CHARTING
Editor,\nConcerning Daryl Guppy’s March 1997 article (“Building point & figure charts”), the one-box point & figure chart was\ncreated incorrectly. When the reversal is one unit, you do not always move one column to the right. The only reason to\nmove one column to the right in any P&F chart is to avoid overwriting the Xs or Os in the current column. You will always need to move to the right in reversal charts\nof two, three, five or more units, but not with one-unit reversal charts. For example, if the price reverses by only one unit and then reverses back again, you do not move\none column to the right each time. Some commercial technical analysis programs draw one-unit reversal charts the same way as for reversal charts of three units, which contributes to the incorrect method becoming the stan-dard. But any quality textbook on one-unit reversal P&F charts will confirm\nthe correct method. One-unit charts are the only P&F\ncharts that can have an X and an O in the same column.\nLES WEBSTER, via E-mail"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-7-letters-to-s-c-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-7-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-7-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v137tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:8 (379-381): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADESTATION
The June 1997 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES discussed\na tried-and-true technique known as TRIX in the article\n“Playing TRIX: The triple exponential smoothing oscillator.”\nThe TRIX indicator and system code below for TradeStation\nincludes alerts and signals based on both the crossing of the\nzero line and the crossing of the linear regression average.\nThe inputs, aside from the basic parameter adjustments, will\nalso allow you to specify whether you want to generate alerts\nand signals on the crossing of the zero line, the linear\nregression average or both. ...continuded
METASTOCK
Last month, the MetaStock Traders’ Tip covered creating a\ntemplate and formulas to reproduce rainbow charts, which\nwere introduced by Mel Widner in the same issue. This\nmonth I’ll show how to create a system test, which will allow\nyou to test the exit strategy Widner gave toward the end of the article (under the subheading, “Beating buy-and-hold”). For this test, I’ve chosen to enter a long position when all rainbow averages are in an uptrend sequence. The exit rule used here adheres to Widner’s instructions in the article.
To perform this test, first enter the following three custom\nindicators by choosing “indicator builder” from the Tools\nmenu. (Note: The first two formulas are repeated from last\nmonth’s Traders’ Tips, so if you’ve already entered them,\nyou’ll only have to enter the third formula.) ...continuded"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-8-379-381-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-8-379-381-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-8-379-381-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosc,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:8: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""PATTERN RECOGNITION
Editor,\nI have read some of the articles by Thomas Bulkowski, particularly, “On rising wedges” and “Ascending and descending triangles.” I found them very interesting and accurate. I’d like to see more of his articles in the future.\nHOMER TSAI, via E-mail
\nMLM INDEX
As a subscriber, I am very appreciative of the surprising continual improvement in the quality of your magazine.\nThe articles seem to be increasingly accessible and more pointedly relevant — in other words, the articles are easier\nto read and understand, and their information and ideas are more readily usable. Also, your magazine is a good resource for other sources of infor-mation. I have four questions regarding Victor Sperandeo’s April 1997 article, “The essence of market profits.” In the article, he refers to the MLM index, which was previously known as the Barra-MLM\nindex. First, where can I get access to the MLM index? Second, what does “MLM” stand for? Are there any mutual funds that base their fund on the system-driven MLM index? Finally, what books, periodicals or software treat the MLM index?\nMICHAEL SCOTT, via E-mail"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-8-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-8-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-8-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v142tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:9 (426-427): Traders' Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADESTATION
Here are two indicators to assist readers in identifying some\nof the classic chart patterns, as discussed in Daniel Chesler’s\n“Identifying significant chart formations” elsewhere in this\nissue. Ideally, you will use one or both of the indicators in\nconjunction with other analytical techniques, such as\ntrendlines, to identify trading opportunities on your charts.\nThe first indicator, the ADX/MovAvg Combo, is a relatively\nsimple indicator based on the average directional\nmovement indicator (ADX) and moving average calculation.\nThis indicator plots a 50-bar moving average and triggers\nboth visual and audio alerts when a conspicuous decrease\noccurs in the ADX below a specified level, which in this case\nis 15. The indicator code to be entered in the TradeStation\nPower Editor follows. Suggestions for the format settings for\nthis indicator are given after the code..."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-9-426-427-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-9-426-427-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-9-426-427-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1lettosc2,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-15-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V15:9: Letters to S&C"",""caption-linebreaks"":""WEB FORUM ON TRADING?
Editor,\nI’m a longtime subscriber to your magazine\nand enjoy it very much, including\nespecially the reviews of products.\nThere is a related need that your Web\nsite could meet while it would be impractical\nfor a periodical. The product\nreviews in the magazine are good for\nan overall view of a product but can-not\nshine a light on many users’ everyday\nexperiences with the product,\nincluding those annoying or efficiency-\nwasting implementation issues\nrelated to usage and configurations,\nand intangibles such as ease of living\nwith a product and enthusiasm and\ndepth of support options.\nHowever, a forum on your Web site\ncould provide information of this\nsort. Such a forum would benefit\nyou, since I’m sure the discussions\nwould generate ideas for editorial\ncontent for the magazine. It would\nalso benefit readers, who could swap\ninformation and war stories to help\nmake decisions about products. Finally,\nit would benefit product vendors,\nwho could get feedback from\nusers by monitoring the discussion,\nif they wished to do so.\nPlease give this idea some consideration.\nJOHN CLEVELAND, via E-mail
This idea has been under discussion\nhere for several months. We\nhope to start a discussion forum\nabout investing techniques and\nrelated products sometime in the\nfuture.\nIn the interim, you may want to\nlook at news:misc.invest.technical\nwith a news-enabled Internet browser,\nor misc.invest.technical with a news\nreader or online service.—Publisher"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-9-letters-to-s-c-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-9-letters-to-s-c-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v15-9-letters-to-s-c-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v149tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:10 (491-493): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""METASTOCK
In MetaStock for Windows, you can use the Expert Advisor\nto recreate the SHARK-32 signals on your charts as discussed\nin Walter Downs’s article in this issue, “Combining statisti-cal\nand pattern analysis.”\nFirst, choose Expert Advisor from the Tools menu in\nMetaStock 6.5. Next, choose New and enter the following\nformulas:
\nName: Click the Name tab and enter “Shark-32” in the name\nfield.\nTrends: Click the Trends tab and enter the following formu-las\nin the bullish and bearish fields.
\nBullish: Mov(C,5,S)>Mov(C,20,S);\nBearish: Mov(C,5,S)
Highlights: Click the Highlights tab, choose New, and enter\n“3rd Bar” in the name field. Now change the color in the color\nfield to Blue. Finally, enter the following formula in the\ncondition field, and then choose OK."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-10-491-493-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-10-491-493-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-10-491-493-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1610letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-10"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:10: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""NOTE FROM UKRAINE
\nEditor,
I am deeply impressed by the high quality\nof your journal. It was a great pleasure\nto read articles in different areas of\ntechnical analysis.
VLADIMIR KHRAPKO\nDept. of economics and management\nSimferopol State University, Simferopol, Crimea, Ukraine
\nDAYTRADING STOCKS
\nEditor,
A few months back, I wrote you requesting\narticles on daytrading the financial\nmarkets. In the August 1998 issue, an\narticle by Mark Conway, “Daytrading\nstocks,” was published dealing with the\nnew techniques of daytrading. Well, I’d\nlike to congratulate you on such an\ninformative and excellent piece. It shows\njust how sensitive you are to the needs\nof your readers and how responsive to\nour requests. The quality of your magazine\nis self-apparent.\nP.S. It’s subscription renewal time\nagain for me, and as they say in the\nmilitary, I intend to “re-up.”
HAROLD ERWIN, via E-mail
Thank you for writing! —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-10-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-10-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-10-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v154tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:11 (543-545): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADESTATION/SUPERCHARTS
Our focus this month in Traders’ Tips is on the cup-with-handle chart pattern that Rick Martinelli and Barry Hyman\nexplored in the October 1998 STOCKS & COMMODITIES in\n“Cup-with-handle and the computerized approach.” When\nall the criteria fall into place, this chart pattern really seems to pick out some nice bullish breakouts. I must caution you, though, that as with most chart patterns, the cup-with-handle formation is subjective. In other words, the pattern defined for the computer program may not recognize some legitimate cup-with-handle formations or may display a pattern where\none does not truly exist. Thus, in setting up the EasyLanguage\nindicator below, I have tried to strike a balance between the\ntwo extremes.\nThe name of the EasyLanguage indicator described here is\n“cup & handle.” When the indicator identifies a cup-with-handle\nformation, it will place the following characters on the\nchart for identification of the key points:
K: Beginning of the setup phase
LS: Left-hand side of the cup formation
RS: Right-hand side of the cup formation
B: Bottom of the cup.
Once the key points have been identified, the indicator will\nalso plot a horizontal line at the level of the right-hand side of\nthe cup. The horizontal line will continue to plot until either\nthe upward price breakout occurs or the close falls below the\nacceptable level. If an upward price breakout occurs, a red dot\nwill be plotted at the close (Figure 1).\nThis indicator will generate an alert for two situations. The\nfirst is when a valid cup-with-handle formation has been\nidentified. The second is when a price breakout above the\nright-hand side of the cup formation has occurred. “AlrtLen,”\nthe only input for this indicator, determines the number of\nbars after the occurrence of either of the two above criteria\nthat an alert will be generated."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-11-543-545-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-11-543-545-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-11-543-545-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1611letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-11"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:11: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADING THE TREND
Editor,
In his September 1998 article (“Trading\nthe trend”), Andrew Abraham states in\nthe second paragraph that “the calculation\nuses a 21-period weighted average\nof the true range, giving higher weight\nto the true range of the most recent bar.”\nWhat does he mean by the second part\nof that sentence?\nThe idea of qualifying trends in this\nmanner appeals greatly to me, even\nthough it may take a considerable effort\nto keep track of all the mathematics on\na daily basis for perhaps two contracts\neach of 40 commodities. Being able to\nuse a volatility indicator in a charting\nprogram would certainly help, but only\nif the weighting suggested by Abraham\nis available in the volatility function.
JOHN KOCHER, via E-mail, Cleveland, OH
A weighted moving average multiples a\nweighting factor by each close and then\ndivides this product by the sum of the\nfactors. For example, here’s the calculation\nfor a three-period weighted moving\naverage for three days’ closing\nprices, where today = 30, previous day\n= 29, and two days ago = 28:
(3*30) + (2*29) + (1*28) = 176\n176 / (3+2+1) = 29.333
for the three-period weighted moving\naverage.\nMost technical analysis software\nmakes use of weighted moving averages\nand you will usually find an explanation\nfor it in the manual. —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-11-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-11-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-11-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v1612letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-12"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:12: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""CUP WITH HANDLE
Editor,
The article “Cup-with-handle and the\ncomputerized approach” in your October\n1998 issue was great, but authors\nRick Martinelli and Barry Hyman certainly\nleave us in the dark as to the\nsoftware that will enable us to use the\nideas expressed there. Producing a valid\nsystem using the “Cup-with-handle”\narticle as a basis would take a high level\nof programming knowledge.\nACEEBO, via E-mail, Chagrin Falls, OH
See Traders’ Tips in this issue for software\ncode implementing the cup-with-handle\nconcept. Each month, Traders’\nTips features programming code contributed\nby vendors of popular technical\nanalysis software. —Editor
TRADING THE TREND
Editor,
Thanks very much for your great magazine.\nI am a proprietary trader in the FX\nmarkets for a regional bank and most of\nmy successful systems are due, in part,\nto things that I have learned from your\nmagazine over the years.\nI was wondering if there were any\nplan to release the Easy-Language code\nfor the system discussed in the September\n1998 article “Trading the trend” by\nAndrew Abraham. I enjoyed reading\nabout the strategy but the article didn’t\ndescribe it well enough for me to write\nthe code myself. Thanks again.\nKENT SHAW, via E-mail
Many software vendors specialize in\nwriting and developing third-party software\ncode. Check the Omega Solution\nProviders listing each month in our\nClassifieds, or look through the Omega Research special advertising section in\nour November 1998 issue for vendors of\nEasyLanguage code. —Editor"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-12-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-12-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-12-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
-v16-c03-022crea-pdf,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:3 (142-144): Creating Prosperity by Adrienne Laris Toghraie"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Creating Prosperity by Adrienne Laris Toghraie
Can you create prosperity by sharing resources?
What is the key to creating prosperity? Prosperity consciousness is the answer. This state of mind comes from a sense of abundance, which comes in turn from feeling that you have something to share with others. The more generous you can be, the more you will maintain prosperity consciousness. However, you can only be generous to the extent of the resources you have. Think of all the resources a person can accumulate, such as knowledge, wisdom, energy, love, friendship, and material things. Generosity is the key to prosperity consciousness, and prosperity consciousness is the key to high performance. Maintaining a high-performance state is what enables professional traders to be constant in their performance, which results in prosperity."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-3-142-144-creating-prosperity-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-3-142-144-creating-prosperity-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-3-142-144-creating-prosperity-by-adrienne-laris-toghraie-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v115tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-3"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:3 (156-158): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Tips
For Perry Kaufman's article in the 1998 Bonus Issue, here is the adaptive moving average code in TradeStation/SuperCharts, MetaStock, TechniFilter Plus, Wave Wi$e, and SMARTrader."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-3-156-158-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-3-156-158-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-3-156-158-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v120tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:4 (204-206): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Tips
Here is this month’s selection of Traders’ Tips, contributed by various developers of technical analysis software to help readers more easily implement some of the strategies presented.
For Jack Karczewski's article \""Identifying Market Trends\"", the r-squared calculations are given for: TradeStation/SuperCharts, Technifilter Plus, SMARTrader, Wave Wi$e, and Window on Wall Street."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-4-204-206-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-4-204-206-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-4-204-206-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v164letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-4"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:4: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters To S&C
Letters this month include questions on \""The New Gann Swing Chartist\"" by Robert Krausz, the interview with Andrew Lo regarding efficient market hypothesis, and suggested reading on divergence analysis and intraday trading."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-4-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-4-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-4-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v126tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-5"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:5 (260-262): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Tips
This month's selections of Traders' Tips cover Mel Widner's article \""Automated support and resistance\"", providing code for MetaStock for Windows, TradeStation/SuperCharts, TechniFilter Plus, and Wave Wi$e. And for you Fibonacci enthusiasts, there is a Traders’ Tip that describes how SMARTrader can count from a user-supplied date to determine Fibonacci time zones and apply a graphic to the chart reflecting each zone."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-5-260-262-traders-tips-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-5-260-262-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-5-260-262-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v130tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:6 (302-305): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Traders’ Tips
To implement the strategies from Walter Down's article, \""Mutated variables, volatility and a new market paradigm,\"" codes have been provided for TradeStation, MetaStock, WaveWi$e, TechniFilter Plus, SmarTrader, and Window on WallStreet."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-6-302-305-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-6-302-305-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-6-302-305-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v166letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-6"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:6: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Letters to S&C
This month's letters discuss Robert Krausz's article on the Gann swing chartist, Elliott wave theory, the importance of backtesting, and John Sweeney's article on moving averages."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-6-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-6-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-6-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v139tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:8 (395-397): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADESTATION/SUPERCHARTS
Here’s the Easy Language code for my article “From technical\nterms to technical tools.”\nFunction Name: FearPobcOsc\nInputs: Price(Numeric), Length(Numeric), Level(Numeric);\nVars: AvgAvgs(0), HiPrice(0), LoPrice(0), AvgVal(0);\nArray: MPAvg[10](0);\nAvgAvgs = 0;\nMPAvg[1] = MidPoint(Price,Length);
MPAvg[2] = MidPoint(MPAvg[1],Length);
MPAvg[3] = MidPoint(MPAvg[2],Length);
MPAvg[4] = MidPoint(MPAvg[3],Length);
MPAvg[5] = MidPoint(MPAvg[4],Length);
MPAvg[6] = MidPoint(MPAvg[5],Length);
MPAvg[7] = MidPoint(MPAvg[6],Length);
MPAvg[8] = MidPoint(MPAvg[7],Length);\nMPAvg[9] = MidPoint(MPAvg[8],Length);
MPAvg[10] = MidPoint(MPAvg[9],Length);
HiPrice = Highest(Price,Level);
LoPrice = Lowest(Price,Level);
For value1 = 1 to Level begin
AvgAvgs = AvgAvgs + MPAvg[value1];
End;\nAvgVal = AvgAvgs/Level;
IF HiPrice - LoPrice <> 0 Then
FearPobcOsc = 100*((Close - AvgVal) / (HiPrice - LoPrice));
Indicator Name: Point of Balance Close\nInputs: Price(close),Len(12), Level(10);\nVars: PosNeg(0);\nIf CurrentBar > Len*Level Then Begin\nPosNeg = FearPobcOsc(Price,Len,Level);\nIf PosNeg > 0 Then\nPlot1(PosNeg,”FearOsc”)\nElse\nPlot2(PosNeg,”FearOsc”);\nEnd;
—Walter Downs"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-8-395-397-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-8-395-397-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-8-395-397-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v168letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-8"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:8: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""DOW THEORY
Editor,\nI especially enjoyed your interview in\nthe June 1998 STOCKS & COMMODITIES\n(“Before and beyond technology:\nMichael Sheimo on Dow theory”) because\nSheimo comments on the Dow\ntheory in light of the much larger volume\nand velocity of trades today as\ncompared with the late 1800s, when\nCharles Dow developed his theory.\nBased on other articles that have been\npublished in your magazine and based\non my own research, I’ve concluded\nthat Dow theory has not lost its relevance\nto market behavior in spite of\nmassive changes in trading volume and\nvelocity since the 1800s. Although electronics\nand an increase in the number of\ntraders and size of trades have increased\nvolume and velocity, the behavior of\nmarket trends still follows the old rules,\nalthough perhaps at faster rates. Thus,\nmarket history and some of the older\ntrading rules remain relevant to traders\ntoday. I believe that studying the famous\nmarket events, excesses, and theories\nof the past can make one a much\nbetter trader today.\nPlease continue to offer articles com-menting\non and updating classical as\nwell as new investment theories.
RANDALL COVILL, via E-mail"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-8-letters-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-8-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-8-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v144tradtip,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:9 (443-445): Traders’ Tips"",""caption-linebreaks"":""TRADESTATION & SUPERCHARTS
The focus of this month’s Traders’ Tips is the combination of\na simple moving average with support and resistance, as\npresented by Dennis Tilley in his article “Moving averages\nwith resistance and support.” I have integrated this very\ninteresting concept into both an indicator and a system for\nTradeStation or SuperCharts. Notice that the EasyLanguage\ncodes for the indicator and the system are very similar.\nWe’ll begin with the indicator, named “Mov avg—supp/res.”\nThe indicator has three inputs. “Price” and “length” are\nparameters for the basis of the moving average. “F” is the\ncritical percentage, and should be entered as the percent value\n(8 = 8%). The plots for the indicator are as follows: the simple\nmoving average line; points representing the support levels;\nand points representing the resistance levels. In order for the\nplots to appear correctly, the style for the indicator must be\nproperly set (formatting information will follow the\nEasyLanguage code for the indicator)."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-9-443-445-traders-tips-21.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-9-443-445-traders-tips-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-9-443-445-traders-tips-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
v169letters,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""articles-volume-16-chapter-9"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""V16:9: Letters"",""caption-linebreaks"":""IN THE TOP THREE
Editor,
Thanks for the great article on channel\nanalysis by Editor Thom Hartle in your\nJuly 1998 issue. It’s one of three of my\nfavorite articles in seven years. Keep up\nthe good work. I also like the artwork in\nyour magazine.
ROGER GARABEDIAN, Fresno, CA
\nTRADING SYSTEMS
\nEditor,
Would you do a big favor for the trading\ncommunity and bring some truth to the\nsurface about the best trading systems\nout there? Please publish some serious\nscientific work.
ARTHUR C. G. JOHANNPETER, via E-mail\nOpinions abound on the usefulness of\none trading system over another. Trading\nsystems can be segregated into\ntwo groups: disclosed and nondis-closed\n(black boxes). Black boxes are\nsystems that tell you what to do without\nrevealing how the system generated\nthe recommendation.\nIn actuality, black-box nondisclosed\nsystems are almost always some combination\nof known technical analysis\nmethodologies. Disclosed systems,\ntoo, use trading studies, tools, techniques\nor methods that STOCKS & COM-MODITIES\ncovers.\nSTOCKS & COMMODITIES endeavors\nto teach our readers how to trade with\nwhatever tools and information are\navailable. We also describe or review\nproducts or services that could be helpful\nto traders. Reviews can give you an\nidea what a product does and what it’s\nlike to use, but a reviewer may not be\nable to judge the provider’s integrity.\nMoreover, instructions for implementing technical analysis are a little like\ncake recipes: The results are greatly\naffected by the practitioner or cook.\nOne of our magazine’s ongoing edi-torial\ngoals is to publish articles about\ncharting and computerized trading techniques.\nThanks for writing. —Publisher"",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-9-letters-20.gif"",""height"":""260"",""width"":""202""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-9-letters-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/v16-9-letters-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
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s-cb9,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""path"":""books"",""leaf"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""Volume 9 S&C 1991 book 608 pages - SOLD OUT"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Just within these pages are far-reaching and instructive interviews with many experts in the field of technical analysis. Giants like Richard Arms, John Murphy, Steve Shobin, Paul Merriman, Tim Hayes, Alex Elder, Ralph Bloch, William Byers, Robert Nurock, Philip Erlanger, Steve Nison and John McGinley. Consider how difficult it would be to gather these luminaries in one place at your behest — then realize how easy it is to spend a few minutes with each in the pages of this collection."",""imageFields"":{""image"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/volume-9-s-c-1991-book-608-pages-sold-out-20.gif"",""height"":""282"",""width"":""216""},""image-amp-main"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/volume-9-s-c-1991-book-608-pages-sold-out-24.gif"",""height"":""200"",""width"":""360"",""type"":""amp-main""},""image-amp-inset"":{""url"":""https://s.turbifycdn.com/aah/traderscom/volume-9-s-c-1991-book-608-pages-sold-out-25.gif"",""height"":""100"",""width"":""100"",""type"":""amp-inset""}},""relations"":[]}"
info,d,"{""minimum-quantity"":""1"",""template"":""storetemplate."",""ysw-page-title"":""Traders.com"",""caption-linebreaks"":""Welcome to the store for Traders.com, The Stocks & Commodities magazine Website! Here you can choose from thousands of products about technical analysis. Trade smarter and order your subscription today!
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