V.16:5 (256-259): The Phase Method: 1998 by Christopher L. Cagan, Ph.D.
Product Description
The Phase Method: 1998 by Christopher L. Cagan, Ph.D.
Here's a unique technique to understand the cycles prevalent in the markets.
The broad movement of the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), tends to rise and fall on a roughly cyclic basis super-imposed on a long-term trend of growth. Here is a new method of analyzing these motions, called the phase method.
First, take the monthly Dow index and divide by a deflator (for our purposes here, the average of the Consumer Price Index [CPI] and Producer Price Index [PPI], with 1982-84 = 1.00 as the base period) to compute the real DJIA in constant dollars and remove the effect of paper inflation. Take the natural logarithm as the result, to be called LNRLDOW. This series works on a logarithmic or percentage basis, so a motion from 1,000 to 2,000 has the same magnitude as a motion from 2,000 to 4,000 (Figure 1).
Here's a unique technique to understand the cycles prevalent in the markets.
The broad movement of the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), tends to rise and fall on a roughly cyclic basis super-imposed on a long-term trend of growth. Here is a new method of analyzing these motions, called the phase method.
First, take the monthly Dow index and divide by a deflator (for our purposes here, the average of the Consumer Price Index [CPI] and Producer Price Index [PPI], with 1982-84 = 1.00 as the base period) to compute the real DJIA in constant dollars and remove the effect of paper inflation. Take the natural logarithm as the result, to be called LNRLDOW. This series works on a logarithmic or percentage basis, so a motion from 1,000 to 2,000 has the same magnitude as a motion from 2,000 to 4,000 (Figure 1).
FOR THOSE ORDERING ARTICLES SEPARATELY:
*Note: $2.95-$5.95 Articles are in PDF format only. No hard copy of the article(s) will be delivered. During checkout, click the "Download Now" button to immediately receive your article(s) purchase. STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine is delivered via mail. After paying for your subscription at store.traders.com users can view the S&C Digital Edition in the subscriber's section on Traders.com.
| Take Control of Your Trading. |
| Professional Traders' Starter Kit |
| All these items shown below only $299.99! |
| Click Here to Order |