V.9:9 (383-386): A Regression-Based Oscillator by Patrick E. Lafferty

V.9:9 (383-386): A Regression-Based Oscillator by Patrick E. Lafferty
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A Regression-Based Oscillator by Patrick E. Lafferty

Editor's note: Mr. Lafferty originally submitted this article as an entry to the June Traders' Challenge contest. We decided to run it as a separate article because the idea that Mr. Lafferty presented in his entry intrigued me and we thought that STOCKS & COMMODITIES readers would similarly be interested in his techniques.

Although my primary interest in trading is in stock index options, after reading the June STOCKS & COMMODITIES interview with John Murphy, I realized that my stock index analyses could benefit from better understanding the behavior of other markets, including gold futures. The June Traders' Challenge looked like a good opportunity to become more familiar with the gold futures market. So I decided to give it a shot.

My analysis consists of three parts: an assessment of long-term support and resistance levels, based on gold futures data from the past four years; an analysis of recent data in terms of support and resistance levels, trends and cyclic characteristics; and a mathematical determination of the underlying trend for the last three months, formulation of a trading model and identification of near-term trading opportunities.

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