V.7:6 (190-193): EPOCH by John Sweeney
Product Description
EPOCH
by John Sweeney
Having recently gotten a handle on the natural order of prices (i.e., they are random, stationary and dependent), the next order of business has been to explore dependence. Naturally, traders are interested in those forms of dependence which give us an edge in trading. Several forms come immediately to mind: cycles, trending, basing and congestion. Of these, MESA and EPOCH exploit the existence or non-existence of short-term, cyclical components of a price series. MESA, an earlier product, will search through your prices trying to identify cyclical elements with frequencies of 20 to 55 days. Given that result, it will then estimate and plot a two-week price forecast.
MESA was well received, but needs regular usage before an analyst can become familiar with its strengths and weaknesses. Its value could not really be nailed down because trading signals were always given in hindsight, and changed as future prices changed the optimal cycle and its half-cycle average. To boot, you could not tell MESA which cycle to use in its forecast. The result was the program's output was more art than quantitative assessment.
EPOCH overcomes these weaknesses. It allows you to specify any time period (or epoch) and it will evaluate any assumed cycle between 8 and 32 days in length. The program then creates a table showing the number of trades, the profit and profit/trade for that length. The results may also be graphed for the screen or printer, large or small.
Having recently gotten a handle on the natural order of prices (i.e., they are random, stationary and dependent), the next order of business has been to explore dependence. Naturally, traders are interested in those forms of dependence which give us an edge in trading. Several forms come immediately to mind: cycles, trending, basing and congestion. Of these, MESA and EPOCH exploit the existence or non-existence of short-term, cyclical components of a price series. MESA, an earlier product, will search through your prices trying to identify cyclical elements with frequencies of 20 to 55 days. Given that result, it will then estimate and plot a two-week price forecast.
MESA was well received, but needs regular usage before an analyst can become familiar with its strengths and weaknesses. Its value could not really be nailed down because trading signals were always given in hindsight, and changed as future prices changed the optimal cycle and its half-cycle average. To boot, you could not tell MESA which cycle to use in its forecast. The result was the program's output was more art than quantitative assessment.
EPOCH overcomes these weaknesses. It allows you to specify any time period (or epoch) and it will evaluate any assumed cycle between 8 and 32 days in length. The program then creates a table showing the number of trades, the profit and profit/trade for that length. The results may also be graphed for the screen or printer, large or small.
FOR THOSE ORDERING ARTICLES SEPARATELY:
*Note: $2.95-$5.95 Articles are in PDF format only. No hard copy of the article(s) will be delivered. During checkout, click the "Download Now" button to immediately receive your article(s) purchase. STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine is delivered via mail. After paying for your subscription at store.traders.com users can view the S&C Digital Edition in the subscriber's section on Traders.com.
| Take Control of Your Trading. |
| Professional Traders' Starter Kit |
| All these items shown below only $299.99! |
| Click Here to Order |