V.7:6 (190-193): EPOCH by John Sweeney

V.7:6 (190-193): EPOCH by John Sweeney
Item# \V07\C06\EPOCH.PDF
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Product Description

EPOCH by John Sweeney

Having recently gotten a handle on the natural order of prices (i.e., they are random, stationary and dependent), the next order of business has been to explore dependence. Naturally, traders are interested in those forms of dependence which give us an edge in trading. Several forms come immediately to mind: cycles, trending, basing and congestion. Of these, MESA and EPOCH exploit the existence or non-existence of short-term, cyclical components of a price series. MESA, an earlier product, will search through your prices trying to identify cyclical elements with frequencies of 20 to 55 days. Given that result, it will then estimate and plot a two-week price forecast.

MESA was well received, but needs regular usage before an analyst can become familiar with its strengths and weaknesses. Its value could not really be nailed down because trading signals were always given in hindsight, and changed as future prices changed the optimal cycle and its half-cycle average. To boot, you could not tell MESA which cycle to use in its forecast. The result was the program's output was more art than quantitative assessment.

EPOCH overcomes these weaknesses. It allows you to specify any time period (or epoch) and it will evaluate any assumed cycle between 8 and 32 days in length. The program then creates a table showing the number of trades, the profit and profit/trade for that length. The results may also be graphed for the screen or printer, large or small.

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