V.6:4 (129-132): Peaking of a grand supercycle by Robert J. Prechter Jr.

V.6:4 (129-132): Peaking of a grand supercycle by Robert J. Prechter Jr.
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Peaking of a grand supercycle by Robert J. Prechter Jr.

For 13 years, A. J. Frost and I have made the case that a great "fifth wave" bull market—the termination phase of a longer term uptrend—was in force and that it would be followed by a bigger crash and bear market than those of 1929-1932.

From this perspective, October 19,1987 was not an anomaly in the stock market. Certainly, it has entered the history books as the largest down day in Wall Street history, and one of the broadest. But it was typical market behavior, the normal resolution of a pattern wave analysts have observed hundreds of times in smaller degree. What makes the October 1987 drop special is that such large "kickoffs" to bear markets of this magnitude are rare.

In 1941, R.N. Elliott, with limited data, concluded that the year 1857 had marked a second wave bottom and that 1928-29 was a third wave peak in a gigantic uptrend of Grand Supercycle degree. This meant that the multi-decade advance from 1932 would be the termination phase of the expansion which began at the founding of the Republic. His was a remarkable observation given that he had discovered the Wave Principle five years before in smaller-degree formations and that his data were limited to stock price records from 1854 to 1941. But was he correct?

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