V.4:8 (321-324): Technical analysis of the Dow 20 Bond Index by Howard Waxenberg

V.4:8 (321-324): Technical analysis of the Dow 20 Bond Index by Howard Waxenberg
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Technical analysis of the Dow 20 Bond Index by Howard Waxenberg

Over the years, the correlation between moves in the bond market and moves in the stock market has been tremendous. In the last several years, we have repeatedly seen the condition where bonds rally and then four to six weeks later stocks start a bull move. There is a repeating pattern at tops as well where bonds top out and, on average, two weeks later equities begin to falter. So, it makes sense then, that predicting moves in the bond market through technical analysis has two effects. First, of course, is predicting the future direction of bonds and interest rates, and second, through knowing the direction of bonds we can have an outlook on equities, both the direction and the duration of an expected move.

Today there are many measures of the debt markets and many debt markets to measure. There are government and corporate bonds and notes, Treasury bills, debt instruments from government agencies, CDs, the money markets, and so on. There are financial futures, options on financial futures, closed end bond funds, utility stocks and here, in the investment vehicles, the list also goes on.

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