by John Sweeney
When you're on top, don't believe it.
There's nothing like winning to upset your equilibrium. You can win—and still lose. This article is a
blow-by-blow account of two trades that were unrelated but, through me, managed to befoul each other. I
still think back on these events with anguish. "I was right!" I keep telling myself. But in the end, I went
wrong and, since this series is about novices' mistakes, I'll tell you the story. It may do you some good, it
Think back to late 1983. What's happening in the financial complex? Well, bonds are backing and filling
while bills rise steadily and the Euro-currencies are off on a declining tangent of their own. The
Deutschemark, in particular, was bothering me because it wasn't obediently following U.S. interest rates.
After October 1, it seemed bent on destroying my 90%+ correlation with T-Bills and heading for the