No chumps and Mystery Charts
by John Sweeney
Chumps don't trade Teledyne, which was January's Mystery Chart (Figure 1). Brokers should accept no
orders from anyone who isn't well-capitalized, well-connected or just as ornery as the other players. The
window in Figure 2 itself shows what has happened since Teledyne's summer 1989 runup and, for
perspective, Figure 3 is Teledyne'sThe weekly chart since 1986. The tumultuous action evident since last
summer shows that Teledyne's character has hardly changed.
As a group, the entries for January were well thought out and consistent. No "cup and saucer"
formations were evident, nor were appeals to an "ascendant Mars in the Third House." Instead, we heard
from savvy traders who were aware they were working with a tough situation.
Since all the entries we received were good, picking a winner was difficult. I gave no credit this time
around for any long-term view, because the stock is usually driven by clashing "armies in the night" and
only rarely by other market action, fundamental news or past prices. Intellectually, I ended up giving the
most credit to the simplest, consistent approach, choosing Los Angeleno Erwin Goodman's entry over
compelling approaches by Loren Miller (Department of Engineering, University of Michigan) and W.E.
Michael (Winnipeg, Manitoba). All three entries are private traders taking money from wars to which
they are not privy.
In the end, Goodman's traditional indicators won out over Miller's envelopes and cycles solely from my
suspicion that envelopes used on something like Teledyne are unlikely to be consistently effective—a
blatant judgment call (or miscall!). I chose Michael's entry as third for a small inconsistency in
interpreting the pennant while ignoring the sharp price move in early April that would have sucked in
most chart traders.
Thanks, too, to Cullen Thomas of Oklahoma City who sent an intriguing chart pattern system with
fixed profits and losses but couldn't identify the tradeable.