V.17:12 (552-554): As The Bond Turns by Alex Saitta

V.17:12 (552-554): As The Bond Turns by Alex Saitta
Item# /V17/C12/099BOND.pdf
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As The Bond Turns by Alex Saitta

Quick! Is that a turn in the bond market you see? Well, don’t jump right away. Trend reversals take time.

Trend reversals take time: I’ve heard this time and time again. After an uptrend, for instance, you’ll often hear technicians say: “Don’t get short yet. It will take time before this uptrend is reversed. Tops take time to form.” Intrigued, I decided to find out if this was correct. As it turns out, it is correct, at least in the bond market. Here’s the evidence and a technique you can use to test your favorite trading instrument.

The theory that tops and bottoms take time to form is rooted in the belief that the longer-term price movement of a security is guided by its underlying fundamentals. The fundamentals in most markets are byproducts of the business cycle. The business cycle has four phases — up, top, down, and bottom — and because the cycle moves along slowly, the time length of these phases tend to be proportional to each other.

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