V.17:8 (355-357): What Market Timing Is - And Isn't by Paul A. Merriman

V.17:8 (355-357): What Market Timing Is - And Isn't by Paul A. Merriman
Item# \V17\C08\059WHAT.PDF
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What Market Timing Is ó And Isnít

Market timing is supposed to be great at reducing your risk while letting you profit in the bull moves, but is it all itís cracked up to be? This market timer discusses the pros and cons.

Market timing ó and market timers ó are often treated in the media as barely a step above snake-oil salesmen. Itís easy to become defensive in response. But confession is good for the soul. So hereís an insiderís look at what timing is ó and isnít. I could claim that market timing has a big impact on long-term returns. But it doesnít; timing is much less important than asset allocation. In the long run, a broadly diversified buy-and-hold equity portfolio has pretty high odds of achieving a 12% compound return. Timing may improve that ó but you canít count on it. The biggest way timing adds value is by offering a smoother ride, trying to avoid or minimize interim losses that result from volatility.




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