The more things change, the more they remain the same. This money manager compares today’s economic situation with the 1920s and finds some interesting parallels. As computers continue to dictate many of the trading decisions of the 1990s in both the stock and futures markets, fundamental economic data appears to have less and less relevance in the daily heat of market trading. However, when you step back and take a look at the big picture, it makes more sense to examine some of the economic factors that contribute to a market psychology, for, in spite of technical analysis, there is a psychology to the markets that ultimately determines price direction. I have operated in the leveraged medium of futures for nearly two decades, so for me, success is more dependent on the timing of a particular trade rather than on any particular assumptions I may have from evaluating the fundamental supply and demand factors. Consequently, because I base my trading decisions on mathematical concepts, I could be placed in the technical camp of trading and market analysis. |
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