The US Long Wave by Mark Rivest
History plays an important role. Can 224 years of US economic history predict the stock market for the next seven years?
Since the 1970s there have been many predictions of a coming economic collapse that would be larger than the Great Depression. We did experience a stock market crash in 1987 and some economic calamities in the early 2000s, but nothing approaching the degree of what happened in the 1930s. The answer to why a mega economic collapse hasn’t happened and most likely won’t happen can be discovered in the long-term US economic cycle.
THE EBB & FLOW
In 1934, Ralph Nelson Elliott made an intense study of stock prices and discovered a rhythmic pattern of waves. He called this phenomenon the wave principle, now known as Elliott wave theory. Elliott found that the pattern was not limited to just the stock market. He found the pattern in commodities, steel output, and patent applications. In addition, each five-wave pattern is a component of the next larger five-wave pattern.