Decyclers by John F. Ehlers
Trends are great when they’re moving in the direction you want them to. But when they reverse, you don’t want to be caught off-guard. Here’s an oscillator that can signal trend reversals with almost no lag.
Technical analysis literature is filled with descriptions of detrenders. If market data is made up of trends and cyclers, why are there no decyclers? Well, now there are, and I am going to describe them in this article. The primary advantage of decyclers is that they can identify trends as an indicator that has virtually no lag.
IT'S ALL A PART OF A BIGGER CYCLE
From my analysis perspective, there is no such thing as a trend. Rather, I view market data as a continuum of cycle periods with differing cycle amplitudes. With this viewpoint, a trend is just a segment of a longer cycle. Then, by considering all market conditions as segments of a spectrum, the technical analysis problem is reduced to simply finding the right filter...