Does Forecasting Have A Place In Your System? by Boris Tolmachev
And Now, Your Market Forecast
There are three ways to forecast: taking a gamble, making an engineered calculation, and using historical insight. You need to combine all three elements to come up with a well-balanced trading system. Here’s how.
Forecasting involves having an opinion about the probable direction of the market, and having an opinion involves using personal intuition. This intuition can be quantitative or qualitative.
It is said that our processing capabilities are concentrated in the frontal lobes of our brain. This area is responsible for activities that involve extracting signals from past data to anticipate the future. On the other hand, qualitative forecasting requires taking into account political events, evaluating correlations between different types of markets, and arranging large amounts of financial and economical news. This type of work demands an exceptional processor capacity that is beyond our ability.