Stocks & Commodities V. 31:13 (65-66): Five-Year Study On Soybean Price Trends by Ted Seifried

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:13 (65-66): Five-Year Study On Soybean Price Trends by Ted Seifried
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Five-Year Study On Soybean Price Trends by Ted Seifried

Ever thought of trading commodities? This may give you some insight.

After a massive drought-driven bull move in the grains this summer resulting in record high prices, it occurred to me that we were not looking at the lowest soybean ending stock numbers we had seen in the last five years. So I did some digging into old reports, which thankfully are kept on file by the USDA (our tax dollars at work). There are some interesting comparisons that we can make to give us perspective on our current situation. Our economy has been on a wild roller-coaster ride in the last five years, and it would be foolish for me not to take that into account as well.

For this exercise I looked back at the September 2012 USDA reports, as this has been the lowest 201213 numbers we have seen thus far. Note that these are not the final ending stock numbers for the year. Here are what the projected US and world ended stock numbers were for soybeans:

200809

US: 110 million bushels

World: 40.22 million metric tons

200910

US: 150 million bushels

World: 62.85 million metric tons

201011

US: 225 million bushels

World: 68.82 million metric tons

201112

US: 145 million bushels

World: 51.94 million metric tons

201213 (tentative)

US: 115 million bushels

World: 55.66 million metric tons




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