The Thorn At The Bottom by Alexander Sabodin
Here’s a reversal pattern that occurs frequently but is
difficult to discern during its formation.
The thorn pattern is encountered quite frequently, but it is difficult to discern while it is being formed. Unlike other reversal models, which reflect gradual changes in trend dynamics, the thorn is a sharp jerk of the price in a given direction, immediately followed by a jerk in the opposite direction without any pause. Thorns often appear in low-liquid markets or after a news release.
The reason behind such a situation can be attributed to the psychology of market participants. At a certain time, market participants get overwhelmed with emotions and they trade according to “the greater fool theory” — they pay a lot and hope to meet a greater fool who will pay them even more. It looks like network marketing; the last one who joins the movement loses. All logical calculations made in a quiet room before placing that trade are completely forgotten and irrational decisions come to the forefront.
In the case of a thin market — that is, one with low liquidity — the price movement develops with acceleration, similar to what you see with the Eur/Usd in Figure 1 on December 24, 2008. Looking at the chart, you would think that the situation was beyond control. The market surpassed all conceivable and inconceivable expectations. An experienced trader knows that you need to keep alert during such situations.