V.7:10 (372-374): Trading close-to-close patterns by Toby Crabel

V.7:10 (372-374): Trading close-to-close patterns by Toby Crabel
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Trading close-to-close patterns by Toby Crabel

Do the relationships between day-to-day closing prices predict the next day's price moves and, if so, is it possible to isolate these profitable chart patterns and incorporate them as entry signals in a larger trading system? In pursuit of these answers, I have tested all two- through five-day close-to-close patterns in the T-bond futures market from 1978 to 1987 (Figure 1) and discovered the beginnings of some excellent low-risk entry techniques. My tests assumed that trades were entered on the last close of the pattern and exited on the next day's close. Stops were not used.

Figure 2 is an example of the --++ pattern listed as number 24 in Figure 1. The pattern is two lower closings followed by two higher closings, all relative to the close immediately preceding it. Figure 1 shows this pattern is most profitable as a sale. Entry is taken on the close of the last day which, in this case, is higher and the trade is exited on the next day's close.

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