V.3:2 (59-63): How Good is The Dow Theory? PART I by Bill Dunbar

V.3:2 (59-63): How Good is The Dow Theory? PART I by Bill Dunbar
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How Good is The Dow Theory? PART I by Bill Dunbar

An excellent article on the Dow Theory appeared in the December 1984 issue of this magazine, written by Timothy A. Maguire. The present article may be looked on as an extension of that one but since Maguire and I are two different people, you can expect from me a different treatment and a different viewpoint.

The whole Dow Theory idea started from a series of editorials appearing during the years 1900-1902 in the Wall Street Journal, written by Charles H. Dow, one of the founders of the Dow Jones Company and the first editor of the Journal. His observations were based on the market averages that he started in 1884 with eleven stocks, which he considered to be representative of the equities world of that era.

The list included nine railroads, the real blue chips at that time and a very important segment of the market. In 1897 the list was expanded and split into 12 Industrials and 20 railroads, and in 1928 the Industrials were extended to include 30, the number maintained to the present. In 1970 the Rails became the Transportation average with the inclusion of other types of carriers.

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