by John F. Kepka
EASI/ARIMA — THE 2% SOLUTION
The Winchendon Group, Inc.
3907 Lakota Road
P.O. Box 10339
Alexandria, VA 22310
PRICE: $350.00 ($50.00 discount for prepaid.)
Ease of Use: A
Error Handling: B+
Vendor Support: A
Apple II or Compatible
48K minimum memory
Two Disk Drives
Printer (optional but recommended)
EASI/ARIMA - The 2% Solution is as the name implies is easy to use, and it does, in fact, provide
forecasts within a mean error of 2%. Many of the price forecasts I ran were less than 1% error. In a
nutshell, my overall impression is that the package is excellent and represents good value in its effortless
use to provide meaningful forecasts from a broad spectrum of readily available database formats.
Additionally, the ARIMA technique is not limited to price forecasting and may be used to forecast sales,
chemical viscosities, airline miles flown, or any other time series.
I had the opportunity to test the latest Apple Version 3.0. (A similar software version is available for the
IBM PC. This is furnished in compiled BASIC which runs two to three times faster than the Apple.)
From the moment I opened the package, I underwent an enjoyable experience. The Apple EASI/ARIMA
comes with a manual, a primer, a utility disk, and program disk. Both diskettes are copyable so backup
copies are never a problem. The primer is specific to the user's requirements and is intended to bridge the
gap between the computer output and its usage. In this case the futures version provides examples of the
output and some pointers on how the author would use the forecasts in real life situations by "walking
through" three examples of DMarks, Gold, and Wheat Futures. Sample databases are supplied so that the
material in the primer can be duplicated. The primer was written by a man in tune to speculative markets
and provides sufficient working knowledge without the necessity of a sophisticated statistical background.